Neotropical mammal responses to megafires in the Brazilian Pantanal

The increasing frequency and severity of human-caused fires likely have deleterious effects on species distribution and persistence. In 2020, megafires in the Brazilian Pantanal burned 43% of the biome's unburned area and resulted in mass mortality of wildlife. We investigated changes in habitat use or occupancy for an assemblage of eight mammal species in Serra do Amolar, Brazil, following the 2020 fires using a pre- and post-fire camera trap dataset. Additionally, we estimated the density for two naturally marked species, jaguars Panthera onca and ocelots Leopardus pardalis. Of the eight species, six (ocelots, collared peccaries Dicotyles tajacu, giant armadillos Priodontes maximus, Azara's agouti Dasyprocta azarae, red brocket deer Mazama americana, and tapirs Tapirus terrestris) had declining occupancy following fires, and one had stable habitat use (pumas Puma concolor). Giant armadillo experienced the most precipitous decline in occupancy from 0.431 ± 0.171 to 0.077 ± 0.044 after the fires. Jaguars were the only species with increasing habitat use, from 0.393 ± 0.127 to 0.753 ± 0.085. Jaguar density remained stable across years (2.8 ± 1.3, 3.7 ± 1.3, 2.6 ± 0.85/100 km2), while ocelot density increased from 13.9 ± 3.2 to 16.1 ± 5.2/100 km2. However, the low number of both jaguars and ocelots recaptured after the fire period suggests that immigration may have sustained the population. Our results indicate that the megafires will have significant consequences for species occupancy and fitness in fire-affected areas. The scale of megafires may inhibit successful recolonization, thus wider studies are needed to investigate population trends.

Food resource competition between African wild dogs and larger carnivores in an ecosystem with artificial water provision

Predators of similar size often compete over prey. In semi-arid ecosystems where water is a limiting resource, prey availability can be affected by water distribution, which further increases resource competition and exacerbate conflict among predators. This can have implications for carnivore dietary competition. Hence, we evaluated the dynamics of food resource competition between African wild dogs and four competing predators (cheetahs, leopards, lions and spotted hyaenas) in different seasons and across areas with different waterhole densities in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. We used the frequency of occurrence of prey items found in predators' scats to analyse diet composition, overlap and prey preference. For most predators, kudu was most frequently consumed and preferred. Low and medium water-dependent prey (medium and small-sized) were mostly consumed by wild dogs, leopards and cheetahs. Wild dog diet overlap was high with all predators, particularly with hyaenas and lions. There were no seasonal differences in the predators diet. The diet overlap of wild dogs with lions was highest in the low waterhole density area, and wild dog diet composition did not differ significantly from the diet of lions and hyaenas. In the low waterhole density area, wild dogs and hyaenas broadened their niche breadth, and predators diet had a higher proportion of low water-dependent prey. A low density of waterholes increased food resource competition. However, high density of waterholes, where there is more prey availability, can increase the aggregation and density of predators, and hence, increase the risks involved in interspecific competition on wild dogs. To reduce food resource competition on wild dogs, we propose to conserve larger-bodied prey that are less dependent on water (e.g. kudu, reedbuck, eland and gemsbok). As the use of water pumping is common practice, we propose maintaining water management heterogeneity where prey which is less dependent on water can also thrive.

Tradeoffs between resources and risks shape the responses of a large carnivore to human disturbance

Wide-ranging carnivores experience tradeoffs between dynamic resource availabilities and heterogeneous risks from humans, with consequences for their ecological function and conservation outcomes. Yet, research investigating these tradeoffs across large carnivore distributions is rare. We assessed how resource availability and anthropogenic risks influence the strength of lion (Panthera leo) responses to disturbance using data from 31 sites across lions' contemporary range. Lions avoided human disturbance at over two-thirds of sites, though their responses varied depending on site-level characteristics. Lions were more likely to exploit human-dominated landscapes where resources were limited, indicating that resource limitation can outweigh anthropogenic risks and might exacerbate human-carnivore conflict. Lions also avoided human impacts by increasing their nocturnal activity more often at sites with higher production of cattle. The combined effects of expanding human impacts and environmental change threaten to simultaneously downgrade the ecological function of carnivores and intensify human-carnivore conflicts, escalating extinction risks for many species.

Ten years of coverage of trophy hunting in UK newspapers

Hunting is an increasingly contentious topic. Trophy hunting, whereby people hunt individual animals with desirable characteristics in order to keep body parts (e.g. horns, heads, hides, antlers) as mementos, is especially contested. Political pressure, often in the form of trophy import bans, is being applied in multiple nations, and campaigns to ban trophy hunting, or trophy imports, attract considerable media attention. However, trophy hunting often has conservation value, acting to protect habitat and provide income for local communities. Assuming that media coverage can influence public and political opinion, negative or simplistic media coverage of trophy hunting has the potential to cause adverse outcomes for conservation and local communities. Here, we analyse coverage of trophy hunting from July 2010 - June 2020 (five years before and five years after the death of Cecil the Lion) in the most popular UK media outlets (624 articles in total), assessing the overall sentiment of each article, and the species and countries covered. Ninety percent of all coverage occurred after the death of Cecil the lion, marking this event as a watershed moment in UK mainstream media depiction of trophy hunting. The overall sentiment of articles was largely against trophy hunting (63.1%), and this was more pronounced in tabloids (84.2%) than broadsheets (42.2%). Pro-trophy hunting articles were very uncommon overall (3.5%). Articles that described the complexity of trophy hunting decreased following Cecil and were most common in pre-Cecil broadsheets (35.7%, dropping to 30.6%) and rarest in post-Cecil tabloids (3.1%). Articles focussed mainly on charismatic but rarely hunted species including lion, elephant and rhino, with commonly hunted species (such as impala or Cape buffalo) only rarely being mentioned. When countries were mentioned, southern African nations predominated, with four nations (Zimbabwe, South Africa, Namibia and Botswana) being named in 68% of qualifying articles. We conclude that simplistic media depiction of trophy hunting has the potential to cause negative outcomes for conservation through its impact on public perception and political opinion.

Assessing the performance of index calibration survey methods to monitor populations of wide-ranging low-density carnivores

Apex carnivores are wide-ranging, low-density, hard to detect, and declining throughout most of their range, making population monitoring both critical and challenging. Rapid and inexpensive index calibration survey (ICS) methods have been developed to monitor large African carnivores. ICS methods assume constant detection probability and a predictable relationship between the index and the actual population of interest. The precision and utility of the resulting estimates from ICS methods have been questioned. We assessed the performance of one ICS method for large carnivores-track counts-with data from two long-term studies of African lion populations. We conducted Monte Carlo simulation of intersections between transects (road segments) and lion movement paths (from GPS collar data) at varying survey intensities. Then, using the track count method we estimated population size and its confidence limits. We found that estimates either overstate precision or are too imprecise to be meaningful. Overstated precision stemmed from discarding the variance from population estimates when developing the method and from treating the conversion from tracks counts to population density as a back-transformation, rather than applying the equation for the variance of a linear function. To effectively assess the status of species, the IUCN has set guidelines, and these should be integrated in survey designs. We propose reporting the half relative confidence interval width (HRCIW) as an easily calculable and interpretable measure of precision. We show that track counts do not adhere to IUCN criteria, and we argue that ICS methods for wide-ranging low-density species are unlikely to meet those criteria. Established, intensive methods lead to precise estimates, but some new approaches, like short, intensive, (spatial) capture-mark-recapture (CMR/SECR) studies, aided by camera trapping and/or genetic identification of individuals, hold promise. A handbook of best practices in monitoring populations of apex carnivores is strongly recommended.

Do protection gradients explain patterns in herbivore densities? An example with ungulates in Zambia's Luangwa Valley

Ungulate populations face declines across the globe, and populations are commonly conserved by using protected areas. However, assessing the effectiveness of protected areas in conserving ungulate populations has remained difficult. Using herd size data from four years of line transect surveys and distance sampling models, we modeled population densities of four important herbivore species across a gradient of protection on the edge of Zambia's South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) while accounting for the role of various ecological and anthropogenic variables. Our goal was to test whether protection was responsible for density dynamics in this protection gradient, and whether a hunting moratorium impacted herbivore densities during the studies. For all four species, we estimated lower densities in partially protected buffer areas adjacent to SLNP (ranging from 4.5-fold to 13.2-fold lower) compared to protected parklands. Density trends through the study period were species-specific, with some species increasing, decreasing, or remaining stable in all or some regions of the protection gradient. Surprisingly, when controlling for other covariates, we found that these observed differences were not always detectably related to the level of protection or year. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for variables beyond strata of interest in evaluating the effectiveness of a protected area. This study highlights the importance of comprehensively modeling ungulate population density across protection gradients, identifies lands within an important protection gradient for targeted conservation and monitoring, documents prey depletion and expands our understanding on the drivers in a critical buffer area in Zambia.

Foraging investment in a long-lived herbivore and vulnerability to coursing and stalking predators

Allocating resources to growth and reproduction requires grazers to invest time in foraging, but foraging promotes dental senescence and constrains expression of proactive antipredator behaviors such as vigilance. We explored the relationship between carnivore prey selection and prey foraging effort using incisors collected from the kills of coursing and stalking carnivores. We predicted that prey investing less effort in foraging would be killed more frequently by coursers, predators that often exploit physical deficiencies. However, such prey could expect delayed dental senescence. We predicted that individuals investing more effort in foraging would be killed more frequently by stalkers, predators that often exploit behavioral vulnerabilities. Further these prey could expect earlier dental senescence. We tested these predictions by comparing variation in age-corrected tooth wear, a proxy of cumulative foraging effort, in adult (3.4-11.9 years) wildebeest killed by coursing and stalking carnivores. Predator type was a strong predictor of age-corrected tooth wear within each gender. We found greater foraging effort and earlier expected dental senescence, equivalent to 2.6 additional years of foraging, in female wildebeest killed by stalkers than in females killed by coursers. However, male wildebeest showed the opposite pattern with the equivalent of 2.4 years of additional tooth wear in males killed by coursers as compared to those killed by stalkers. Sex-specific variation in the effects of foraging effort on vulnerability was unexpected and suggests that behavioral and physical aspects of vulnerability may not be subject to the same selective pressures across genders in multipredator landscapes.

Quantifying lion (Panthera leo) demographic response following a three-year moratorium on trophy hunting

Factors that limit African lion populations are manifold and well-recognized, but their relative demographic effects remain poorly understood, particularly trophy hunting near protected areas. We identified and monitored 386 individual lions within and around South Luangwa National Park, Zambia, for five years (2008-2012) with trophy hunting and for three additional years (2013-2015) during a hunting moratorium. We used these data with mark-resight models to estimate the effects of hunting on lion survival, recruitment, and abundance. The best survival models, accounting for imperfect detection, revealed strong positive effects of the moratorium, with survival increasing by 17.1 and 14.0 percentage points in subadult and adult males, respectively. Smaller effects on adult female survival and positive effects on cub survival were also detected. The sex-ratio of cubs shifted from unbiased during trophy-hunting to female-biased during the moratorium. Closed mark-recapture models revealed a large increase in lion abundance during the hunting moratorium, from 116 lions in 2012 immediately preceding the moratorium to 209 lions in the last year of the moratorium. More cubs were produced each year of the moratorium than in any year with trophy hunting. Lion demographics shifted from a male-depleted population consisting mostly of adult (≥4 years) females to a younger population with more (>29%) adult males. These data show that the three-year moratorium was effective at growing the Luangwa lion population and increasing the number of adult males. The results suggest that moratoria may be an effective tool for improving the sustainability of lion trophy hunting, particularly where systematic monitoring, conservative quotas, and age-based harvesting are difficult to enforce.

The relationship between direct predation and antipredator responses: a test with multiple predators and multiple prey

Most species adjust their behavior to reduce the likelihood of predation. Many experiments have shown that antipredator responses carry energetic costs that can affect growth, survival, and reproduction, so that the total cost of predation depends on a trade-off between direct predation and risk effects. Despite these patterns, few field studies have examined the relationship between direct predation and the strength of antipredator responses, particularly for complete guilds of predators and prey. We used scan sampling in 344 observation periods over a four-year field study to examine behavioral responses to the immediate presence of predators for a complete antelope guild (dominated by wildebeest, zebra, and oribi) in Liuwa Plains National Park, Zambia, testing for differences in response to all large carnivores in the ecosystem (lions, spotted hyenas, cheetahs, and African wild dogs). We quantified the proportion that each prey species contributed to the kills made by each predator (516 total kills), used distance sampling on systematic line transects to determine the abundance of each prey species, and combined these data to quantify the per-capita risk of direct predation for each predator-prey pair. On average, antelopes increased their vigilance by a factor of 2.4 when predators were present. Vigilance varied strongly among prey species, but weakly in response to different predators. Increased vigilance was correlated with reduced foraging in a similar manner for all prey species. The strength of antipredator response was not detectably related to patterns of direct predation (n = 15 predator-prey combinations with sufficient data). This lack of correlation has implications for our understanding of the role of risk effects as part of the limiting effect of predators on prey.

Spatial and temporal avoidance of risk within a large carnivore guild

Within a large carnivore guild, subordinate competitors (African wild dog, Lycaon pictus, and cheetah, Acinonyx jubatus) might reduce the limiting effects of dominant competitors (lion, Panthera leo, and spotted hyena, Crocuta crocuta) by avoiding them in space, in time, or through patterns of prey selection. Understanding how these competitors cope with one other can inform strategies for their conservation. We tested how mechanisms of niche partitioning promote coexistence by quantifying patterns of prey selection and the use of space and time by all members of the large carnivore guild within Liuwa Plain National Park in western Zambia. Lions and hyenas specialized on wildebeest, whereas wild dogs and cheetahs selected broader diets including smaller and less abundant prey. Spatially, cheetahs showed no detectable avoidance of areas heavily used by dominant competitors, but wild dogs avoided areas heavily used by lions. Temporally, the proportion of kills by lions and hyenas did not detectably differ across four time periods (day, crepuscular, early night, and late night), but wild dogs and especially cheetahs concentrated on time windows that avoided nighttime hunting by lions and hyenas. Our results provide new insight into the conditions under which partitioning may not allow for coexistence for one subordinate species, the African wild dog, while it does for cheetah. Because of differences in responses to dominant competitors, African wild dogs may be more prone to competitive exclusion (local extirpation), particularly in open, uniform ecosystems with simple (often wildebeest dominated) prey communities, where spatial avoidance is difficult.

Assessing the sustainability of African lion trophy hunting, with recommendations for policy

While trophy hunting provides revenue for conservation, it must be carefully managed to avoid negative population impacts, particularly for long-lived species with low natural mortality rates. Trophy hunting has had negative effects on lion populations throughout Africa, and the species serves as an important case study to consider the balance of costs and benefits, and to consider the effectiveness of alternative strategies to conserve exploited species. Age-restricted harvesting is widely recommended to mitigate negative effects of lion hunting, but this recommendation was based on a population model parameterized with data from a well-protected and growing lion population. Here, we used demographic data from lions subject to more typical conditions, including source-sink dynamics between a protected National Park and adjacent hunting areas in Zambia's Luangwa Valley, to develop a stochastic population projection model and evaluate alternative harvest scenarios. Hunting resulted in population declines over a 25-yr period for all continuous harvest strategies, with large declines for quotas >1 lion/concession (~0.5 lion/1,000 km² ) and hunting of males younger than seven years. A strategy that combined periods of recovery, an age limit of ≥7 yr, and a maximum quota of ~0.5 lions shot/1,000 km² yielded a risk of extirpation <10%. Our analysis incorporated the effects of human encroachment, poaching, and prey depletion on survival, but assumed that these problems will not increase, which is unlikely. These results suggest conservative management of lion trophy hunting with a combination of regulations. To implement sustainable trophy hunting while maintaining revenue for conservation of hunting areas, our results suggest that hunting fees must increase as a consequence of diminished supply. These findings are broadly applicable to hunted lion populations throughout Africa and to inform global efforts to conserve exploited carnivore populations.