Global temperature homogenization can obliterate temporal isolation in migratory animals with potential loss of population structure

Climate change is expected to increase the spatial autocorrelation of temperature, resulting in greater synchronization of climate variables worldwide. Possibly such 'homogenization of the world' leads to elevated risks of extinction and loss of biodiversity. In this study, we develop an empirical example on how increasing synchrony of global temperatures can affect population structure in migratory animals. We studied two subspecies of bar-tailed godwits Limosa lapponica breeding in tundra regions in Siberia: yamalensis in the west and taymyrensis further east and north. These subspecies share pre- and post-breeding stopover areas, thus being partially sympatric, but exhibiting temporal segregation. The latter is believed to facilitate reproductive isolation. Using satellite tracking data, we show that migration timing of both subspecies is correlated with the date of snowmelt in their respective breeding sites (later at the taymyrensis breeding range). Snow-cover satellite images demonstrate that the breeding ranges are on different climate trajectories and become more synchronized over time: between 1997 and 2020, the date of snowmelt advanced on average by 0.5 days/year in the taymyrensis breeding range, while it remained stable in the yamalensis breeding range. Previous findings showed how taymyrensis responded to earlier snowmelt by advancing arrival and clutch initiation. In the predicted absence of such advancements in yamalensis, we expect that the two populations will be synchronized by 2036-2040. Since bar-tailed godwits are social migrants, this raises the possibility of population exchange and prompts the question whether the two subspecies can maintain their geographic and morphological differences and population-specific migratory routines. The proposed scenario may apply to a wide range of (social) migrants as temporal segregation is crucial for promoting and maintaining reproductive isolation in many (partially sympatric) migratory populations. Homogenization of previously isolated populations could be an important consequence of increasing synchronized environments and hence climate change.

Arriving late and lean at a stopover site is selected against in a declining migratory bird population

Loss and/or deterioration of refuelling habitats have caused population declines in many migratory bird species but whether this results from unequal mortality among individuals varying in migration traits remains to be shown. Based on 13 years of body mass and size data of great knots (Calidris tenuirostris) at a stopover site of the Yellow Sea, combined with resightings of individuals marked at this stopover site along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, we assessed year to year changes in annual apparent survival rates, and how apparent survival differed between migration phenotypes (i.e. migration timing and fuel stores). The measurements occurred over a period of habitat loss and/or deterioration in this flyway. We found that the annual apparent survival rates of great knots rapidly declined from 2006 to 2018, late-arriving individuals with small fuel stores exhibiting the lowest apparent survival rate. There was an advancement in mean arrival date and an increase in the mean fuel load of stopping birds over the study period. Our results suggest that late-arriving individuals with small fuel loads were selected against. Thus, habitat loss and/or deterioration at staging sites may cause changes in the composition of migratory phenotypes at the population-level.

GPS tracking analyses reveal finely-tuned shorebird space use and movement patterns throughout the non-breeding season in high-latitude austral intertidal areas

BACKGROUND

Long-distance migratory birds spend most of their annual cycle in non-breeding areas. During this period birds must meet their daily nutritional needs and acquire additional energy intake to deal with future events of the annual cycle. Therefore, patterns of space use and movement may emerge as an efficient strategy to maintain a trade-off between acquisition and conservation of energy during the non-breeding season. However, there is still a paucity of research addressing this issue, especially in trans-hemispheric migratory birds.

METHODS

Using GPS-tracking data and a recently developed continuous-time stochastic process modeling framework, we analyzed fine-scale movements in a non-breeding population of Hudsonian godwits (Limosa haemastica), a gregarious long-distance migratory shorebird. Specifically, we evaluated if these extreme migrants exhibit restricted, shared, and periodic patterns of space use on one of their main non-breeding grounds in southern South America. Finally, via a generalized additive model, we tested if the observed patterns were consistent within a circadian cycle.

RESULTS

Overall, godwits showed finely-tuned range-residence and periodic movements (each 24-72 h), being similar between day and night. Remarkably, range-resident individuals segregated spatially into three groups. In contrast, a smaller fraction of godwits displayed unpredictable and irregular movements, adding functional connectivity within the population.

CONCLUSIONS

In coastal non-breeding areas where resource availability is highly predictable due to tidal cycles, range-resident strategies during both the day and night are the common pattern in a long-distance shorebird population. Alternative patterns exhibited by a fraction of non-resident godwits provide functional connectivity and suggest that the exploratory tendency may be essential for information acquisition and associated with individual traits. The methodological approach we have used contributes to elucidate how the composition of movement phases operates during the non-breeding season in migratory species and can be replicated in non-migratory species as well. Finally, our results highlight the importance of considering movement as a continuum within the annual cycle.

GPS tracking data of Eurasian oystercatchers (Haematopusostralegus) from the Netherlands and Belgium

We describe six datasets that contain GPS and accelerometer data of 202 Eurasian oystercatchers (Haematopusostralegus) spanning the period 2008-2021. Birds were equipped with GPS trackers in breeding and wintering areas in the Netherlands and Belgium. We used GPS trackers from the University of Amsterdam Bird Tracking System (UvA-BiTS) for several study purposes, including the study of space use during the breeding season, habitat use and foraging behaviour in the winter season, and impacts of human disturbance. To enable broader usage, all data have now been made open access. Combined, the datasets contain 6.0 million GPS positions, 164 million acceleration measurements and 7.0 million classified behaviour events (i.e., flying, walking, foraging, preening, and inactive). The datasets are deposited on the research repository Zenodo, but are also accessible on Movebank and as down-sampled occurrence datasets on the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and Ocean Biodiversity Information System (OBIS).

Light-level geolocator analyses: A user's guide

Light-level geolocator tags use ambient light recordings to estimate the whereabouts of an individual over the time it carried the device. Over the past decade, these tags have emerged as an important tool and have been used extensively for tracking animal migrations, most commonly small birds. Analysing geolocator data can be daunting to new and experienced scientists alike. Over the past decades, several methods with fundamental differences in the analytical approach have been developed to cope with the various caveats and the often complicated data. Here, we explain the concepts behind the analyses of geolocator data and provide a practical guide for the common steps encompassing most analyses - annotation of twilights, calibration, estimating and refining locations, and extraction of movement patterns - describing good practices and common pitfalls for each step. We discuss criteria for deciding whether or not geolocators can answer proposed research questions, provide guidance in choosing an appropriate analysis method and introduce key features of the newest open-source analysis tools. We provide advice for how to interpret and report results, highlighting parameters that should be reported in publications and included in data archiving. Finally, we introduce a comprehensive supplementary online manual that applies the concepts to several datasets, demonstrates the use of open-source analysis tools with step-by-step instructions and code and details our recommendations for interpreting, reporting and archiving.

Comment on "Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds"

Kubelka et al (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

Fuelling conditions at staging sites can mitigate Arctic warming effects in a migratory bird

Under climate warming, migratory birds should align reproduction dates with advancing plant and arthropod phenology. To arrive on the breeding grounds earlier, migrants may speed up spring migration by curtailing the time spent en route, possibly at the cost of decreased survival rates. Based on a decades-long series of observations along an entire flyway, we show that when refuelling time is limited, variation in food abundance in the spring staging area affects fitness. Bar-tailed godwits migrating from West Africa to the Siberian Arctic reduce refuelling time at their European staging site and thus maintain a close match between breeding and tundra phenology. Annual survival probability decreases with shorter refuelling times, but correlates positively with refuelling rate, which in turn is correlated with food abundance in the staging area. This chain of effects implies that conditions in the temperate zone determine the ability of godwits to cope with climate-related changes in the Arctic.

Inherent limits of light-level geolocation may lead to over-interpretation

In their 2015 Current Biology paper, Streby et al.[1] reported that Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera), which had just migrated to their breeding location in eastern Tennessee, performed a facultative and up to ">1,500 km roundtrip" to the Gulf of Mexico to avoid a severe tornadic storm. From light-level geolocator data, wherein geographical locations are estimated via the timing of sunrise and sunset, Streby et al.[1] concluded that the warblers had evacuated their breeding area approximately 24 hours before the storm and returned about five days later. The authors presented this finding as evidence that migratory birds avoid severe storms by temporarily moving long-distances. However, the tracking method employed by Streby et al.[1] is prone to considerable error and uncertainty. Here, we argue that this interpretation of the data oversteps the limits of the used tracking technique. By calculating the expected geographical error range for the tracked birds, we demonstrate that the hypothesized movements fell well within the geolocators' inherent error range for this species and that such deviations in latitude occur frequently even if individuals remain stationary.

Timing avian long-distance migration: from internal clock mechanisms to global flights

Migratory birds regularly perform impressive long-distance flights, which are timed relative to the anticipated environmental resources at destination areas that can be several thousand kilometres away. Timely migration requires diverse strategies and adaptations that involve an intricate interplay between internal clock mechanisms and environmental conditions across the annual cycle. Here we review what challenges birds face during long migrations to keep track of time as they exploit geographically distant resources that may vary in availability and predictability, and summarize the clock mechanisms that enable them to succeed. We examine the following challenges: departing in time for spring and autumn migration, in anticipation of future environmental conditions; using clocks on the move, for example for orientation, navigation and stopover; strategies of adhering to, or adjusting, the time programme while fitting their activities into an annual cycle; and keeping pace with a world of rapidly changing environments. We then elaborate these themes by case studies representing long-distance migrating birds with different annual movement patterns and associated adaptations of their circannual programmes. We discuss the current knowledge on how endogenous migration programmes interact with external information across the annual cycle, how components of annual cycle programmes encode topography and range expansions, and how fitness may be affected when mismatches between timing and environmental conditions occur. Lastly, we outline open questions and propose future research directions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Wild clocks: integrating chronobiology and ecology to understand timekeeping in free-living animals'.

Long-Distance Range Expansion and Rapid Adjustment of Migration in a Newly Established Population of Barn Swallows Breeding in Argentina

When bird populations spread, long-distance pioneering populations are often backfilled by a more slowly advancing front [1-3]. The Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica, a globally distributed passerine [4, 5], expanded its breeding range an exceptional 7,000 km when it began breeding 35 years ago in its regular wintering range in Argentina [6], subsequently expanding over 500 km from its starting point [7-11]. Trans-hemispheric breeding attempts have occurred previously in related swallows [12-14], but only this colonization has lasted. Comparative studies of birds show a remarkable diversity in patterns of change in migratory habits [15-21], and these Argentine-breeding swallows might retain ancestral patterns, breeding in Argentina but returning to North America for the austral winter. Feather isotopes from these birds are consistent with the alternative possibility that they migrate no farther than northern South America [22]. Because isotopic patterns cannot definitively distinguish these alternatives, we pursued a solar geolocator study [23, 24] to do so. Data from nine tagged birds show conclusively that Barn Swallows breeding in Argentina have rapidly changed their movements to migrate no farther north in austral winter than northern South America. The phenology of the annual cycles of molt, migration, and breeding for these Argentine-breeding swallows have all shifted by about 6 months, and we suggest that stimulatory day lengths and the proliferation of nesting substrates facilitated their colonization.

Seasonal Time Keeping in a Long-Distance Migrating Shorebird

Because of the complications in achieving the necessary long-term observations and experiments, the nature and adaptive value of seasonal time-keeping mechanisms in long-lived organisms remain understudied. Here we present the results of a 20-year-long study of the repeated seasonal changes in body mass, plumage state, and primary molt of 45 captive red knots Calidris canutus islandica, a High Arctic breeding shorebird that spends the nonbreeding season in temperate coastal areas. Birds kept outdoors and experiencing the natural photoperiod of the nonbreeding area maintained sequences of life-cycle stages, roughly following the timing in nature. For 6 to 8 years, 14 of these birds were exposed to unvarying ambient temperature (12 °C) and photoperiodic conditions (12:12 LD). Under these conditions, for at least 5 years they expressed free-running circannual cycles of body mass, plumage state, and wing molt. The circannual cycles of the free-running traits gradually became longer than 12 months, but at different rates. The prebreeding events (onset and offset of prealternate molt and the onset of spring body mass increase) occurred at the same time of the year as in the wild population for 1 or several cycles. As a result, after 4 years in 12:12 LD, the circannual cycles of prealternate plumage state had drifted less than the cycles of prebasic plumage state and wing molt. As the onset of body mass gain drifted less than the offset, the period of high body mass became longer under unvarying conditions. We see these differences between the prebreeding and postbreeding life-cycle stages as evidence for adaptive seasonal time keeping in red knots: the life-cycle stages linked to the initiation of reproduction rely mostly on endogenous oscillators, whereas the later stages rather respond to environmental conditions. Postbreeding stages are also prone to carryover effects from the earlier stages.

Body shrinkage due to Arctic warming reduces red knot fitness in tropical wintering range

Reductions in body size are increasingly being identified as a response to climate warming. Here we present evidence for a case of such body shrinkage, potentially due to malnutrition in early life. We show that an avian long-distance migrant (red knot, Calidris canutus canutus), which is experiencing globally unrivaled warming rates at its high-Arctic breeding grounds, produces smaller offspring with shorter bills during summers with early snowmelt. This has consequences half a world away at their tropical wintering grounds, where shorter-billed individuals have reduced survival rates. This is associated with these molluscivores eating fewer deeply buried bivalve prey and more shallowly buried seagrass rhizomes. We suggest that seasonal migrants can experience reduced fitness at one end of their range as a result of a changing climate at the other end.

A hidden Markov model for reconstructing animal paths from solar geolocation loggers using templates for light intensity

BACKGROUND

Solar archival tags (henceforth called geolocators) are tracking devices deployed on animals to reconstruct their long-distance movements on the basis of locations inferred post hoc with reference to the geographical and seasonal variations in the timing and speeds of sunrise and sunset. The increased use of geolocators has created a need for analytical tools to produce accurate and objective estimates of migration routes that are explicit in their uncertainty about the position estimates.

RESULTS

We developed a hidden Markov chain model for the analysis of geolocator data. This model estimates tracks for animals with complex migratory behaviour by combining: (1) a shading-insensitive, template-fit physical model, (2) an uncorrelated random walk movement model that includes migratory and sedentary behavioural states, and (3) spatially explicit behavioural masks. The model is implemented in a specially developed open source R package FLightR. We used the particle filter (PF) algorithm to provide relatively fast model posterior computation. We illustrate our modelling approach with analysis of simulated data for stationary tags and of real tracks of both a tree swallow Tachycineta bicolor migrating along the east and a golden-crowned sparrow Zonotrichia atricapilla migrating along the west coast of North America.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide a model that increases accuracy in analyses of noisy data and movements of animals with complicated migration behaviour. It provides posterior distributions for the positions of animals, their behavioural states (e.g., migrating or sedentary), and distance and direction of movement. Our approach allows biologists to estimate locations of animals with complex migratory behaviour based on raw light data. This model advances the current methods for estimating migration tracks from solar geolocation, and will benefit a fast-growing number of tracking studies with this technology.

Temperature effects on food supply and chick mortality in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor)

Tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) breeding success in Ithaca, NY, USA, over the past quarter century has shown generally healthy fledgling production punctuated by years of high nestling mortality. This study tested the potential effects that temperature may have on the food supply and breeding success of swallows. Data from 17 years of daily insect samples were used to relate flying insect abundances to daily maximum temperatures and to define “cold snaps” as strings of consecutive days when the maximum temperatures did not exceed critical temperatures. The distributions of cold snaps and chick mortality events were investigated both through detailed reconstructions of the fates and fate dates of individual chicks, focused on the three breeding seasons of lowest fledging success, and with less detailed brood-level analyses of a larger 11-year dataset including years of more moderate mortality. Mark–recapture analyses of daily brood survival rate (DSR) reveal very strong support for the effects of cold temperatures on brood survival rates, and all the top models agree on a critical temperature of 18.5 °C for insect flight activity in Ithaca. The individual-level analyses, focused on years of higher mortality, favored a 3-day cold snap definition as the most predictive of DSR effects, whereas the larger-scale brood-level analyses revealed 1- and 2-day cold snaps as having the most significant effects on DSR. Regardless, all analyses reveal that, in an age of generally warmer climates, the largest effect of weather on swallow fledgling production is from cold temperatures.