Recognize fish as food in policy discourse and development funding

The international development community is off-track from meeting targets for alleviating global malnutrition. Meanwhile, there is growing consensus across scientific disciplines that fish plays a crucial role in food and nutrition security. However, this 'fish as food' perspective has yet to translate into policy and development funding priorities. We argue that the traditional framing of fish as a natural resource emphasizes economic development and biodiversity conservation objectives, whereas situating fish within a food systems perspective can lead to innovative policies and investments that promote nutrition-sensitive and socially equitable capture fisheries and aquaculture. This paper highlights four pillars of research needs and policy directions toward this end. Ultimately, recognizing and working to enhance the role of fish in alleviating hunger and malnutrition can provide an additional long-term development incentive, beyond revenue generation and biodiversity conservation, for governments, international development organizations, and society more broadly to invest in the sustainability of capture fisheries and aquaculture.

Fishing for food: Values and benefits associated with coastal infrastructure

While there is substantial literature about the socio-cultural characteristics and values associated with recreational and commercial fisheries in the U.S., studies directed at those who ‘fish for food’—those who depend on consuming their catch to various degrees—are relatively sparse. Using qualitative data collected through 80 semi-structured interviews with fishers in the summer and fall of 2018 in Carteret County, North Carolina, this study aims to better understand the group of recreational fishers who consume their catch by describing social and cultural dimensions and values associated with fishing for food, examining the role of infrastructure in facilitating access to benefits associated with this activity, and considering how knowledge of existing licensing regulations surrounding subsistence license waivers affect this fishing community. Interviews conducted at free public fishing structures in the region revealed that fishers derive a variety of values and benefits from fishing at these sites, including access to recreation, nutrition, a social community, and mental health benefits, which were found to be negatively impacted by Hurricane Florence in September 2018. We also found an informal economy of sharing catch on- and off-site that extends the reach and benefits facilitated by public infrastructure to people beyond those using it directly. Overall, we call for conceptualizations of ‘fishing for food’ that include aspects that go beyond traditional definitions of ‘subsistence’ or ‘recreational’ fishing such as food security, access, and less obvious social and cultural motivations behind the activity. These findings are a compelling rationalization for the creation and maintenance of formal and informal fishing places locally and, by extension, in other coastal areas, given the array of benefits provided by access to these types of locations.

Elevated Baseline C-Reactive Protein as a Predictor of Outcome After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Data From the Simvastatin in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage (STASH) Trial

There remains a proportion of patients with unfavorable outcomes after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, of particular relevance in those who present with a good clinical grade. A forewarning of those at risk provides an opportunity towards more intensive monitoring, investigation, and prophylactic treatment prior to the clinical manifestation of advancing cerebral injury.

Group therapy for people with bulimia nervosa: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Approximately 25% of people with bulimia nervosa (BN) who undertake therapy are treated in groups. National guidelines do not discriminate between group and individual therapy, yet each has potential advantages and disadvantages and it is unclear how their effects compare. We therefore evaluated how group therapy for BN compares with individual therapy, no treatment, or other therapies, in terms of remission from binges and binge frequency.

METHOD

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials of group therapies for BN, following standard guidelines.

RESULTS

A total of 10 studies were included. Studies were generally small with unclear risk of bias. There was low-quality evidence of a clinically relevant advantage for group cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) over no treatment at therapy end. Remission was more likely with group CBT versus no treatment [relative risk (RR) 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62-0.96]. Mean weekly binges were lower with group CBT versus no treatment (2.9 v. 6.9, standardized mean difference = -0.56, 95% CI -0.96 to -0.15). One study provided low-quality evidence that group CBT was inferior compared with individual CBT to a clinically relevant degree for remission at therapy end (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.03-1.50); there was insufficient evidence regarding frequency of binges.

CONCLUSIONS

Conclusions could only be reached for CBT. Low-quality evidence suggests that group CBT is effective compared with no treatment, but there was insufficient or very limited evidence about how group and individual CBT compared. The risk of bias and imprecise estimates of effect invite further research to refine and increase confidence in these findings.

Development and validation of an ankle brachial index risk model for the prediction of cardiovascular events

BACKGROUND

The ankle brachial index (ABI) is related to risk of cardiovascular events independent of the Framingham risk score (FRS). The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a risk model for cardiovascular events incorporating the ABI and FRS.

DESIGN

An analysis of participant data from 18 cohorts in which 24,375 men and 20,377 women free of coronary heart disease had ABI measured and were followed up for events.

METHODS

Subjects were divided into a development and internal validation dataset and an external validation dataset. Two models, comprising FRS and FRS + ABI, were fitted for the primary outcome of major coronary events.

RESULTS

In predicting events in the external validation dataset, C-index for the FRS was 0.672 (95% CI 0.599 to 0.737) in men and 0.578 (95% CI 0.492 to 0.661) in women. The FRS + ABI led to a small increase in C-index in men to 0.685 (95% CI 0.612 to 0.749) and large increase in women to 0.690 (95% CI 0.605 to 0.764) with net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 4.3% (95% CI 0.0 to 7.6%, p = 0.050) and 9.6% (95% CI 6.1 to 16.4%, p < 0.001), respectively. Restricting the FRS + ABI model to those with FRS intermediate 10-year risk of 10 to 19% resulted in higher NRI of 15.9% (95% CI 6.1 to 20.6%, p < 0.001) in men and 23.3% (95% CI 13.8 to 62.5%, p = 0.002) in women. However, incorporating ABI in an improved newly fitted risk factor model had a nonsignificant effect: NRI 2.0% (95% CI 2.3 to 4.2%, p = 0.567) in men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.9 to 4.0%, p = 0.483) in women.

CONCLUSIONS

An ABI risk model may improve prediction especially in individuals at intermediate risk and when performance of the base risk factor model is modest.

Systematic review of head cooling in adults after traumatic brain injury and stroke

BACKGROUND

Brain injuries resulting from trauma and stroke are common and costly. Cooling therapy may reduce damage and potentially improve outcome. Head cooling targets the site of injury and may have fewer side effects than systemic cooling, but there has been no systematic review and the evidence base is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effect of non-invasive head cooling after traumatic brain injury (TBI) and stroke on intracranial and/or core body temperature, functional outcome and mortality, determine adverse effects and evaluate cost-effectiveness.

REVIEW METHODS

Search strategy Major international databases [including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, the British Library's Electronic Table of Contents (Zetoc)], The Cochrane Library, trial registers, country-specific databases (including China, Japan), Google Scholar, hypothermia conference reports and reference lists of papers were searched with no publication or language restrictions. The searches were conducted from March 2010 to April 2011, with no back date restriction. Selection criteria For formal analysis of effect of head cooling on functional outcome and mortality: randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of non-invasive head cooling in TBI or stroke in adults (aged ≥ 18 years). RCT prespecified in protocol to include adequate randomisation and blinded outcome assessment. For assessment of effect on temperature and adverse effects of cooling methods/devices: studies of any type in TBI, stroke, cardiac arrest and neonatal hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy (adverse effects only). Data collection and analysis A study assessment and data collection form was developed and piloted. Data on functional outcome, mortality, temperature change and adverse effects of devices were sought and extracted. Two authors independently assessed RCTs for quality using the Cochrane Renal Group checklist.

RESULTS

Out of 46 head-cooling studies in TBI and stroke, there were no RCTs of suitable quality for formal outcome analysis. Twelve studies had useable data on intracranial and core body temperature. These included 99 patients who were cooled after TBI or stroke and 198 patients cooled after cardiac arrest. The data were too heterogeneous for a single summary measure of effect (many studies had no measure of spread) and are therefore presented descriptively. The most effective techniques for which there were adequate data (nasal coolant and liquid cooling helmets) could reduce intracranial temperature by ≥ 1 °C in 1 hour. The main device-related adverse effects were localised skin problems, which were generally mild and self-limiting. There were no suitable data for economic modelling, but an exploratory model of possible treatment effects and cost-effectiveness of head cooling in TBI was created using local patient data.

LIMITATIONS

We conducted extensive and sensitive searches but found no good-quality RCTs of the effect of head cooling on functional outcome that met the review inclusion criteria. Most trials were small and/or of low methodological quality. However, if the trial reports did not reflect the true quality of the research, there may be some excluded trials that should have been included. Temperature data were often poorly reported which made it difficult to assess the effect of head cooling on temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

Whether head cooling improves functional outcome or has benefits and fewer side effects compared with systemic cooling or no cooling could not be established. Some methods of head cooling can reduce intracranial temperature, which is an important first step in determining effectiveness, but there is insufficient evidence to recommend its use outside of research trials. The principal recommendations for research are that active cooling devices show the most promise for further investigation and more robust proof of concept of intracranial and core body temperature reduction with head cooling is required, clearly showing whether temperature has changed and by how much.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Reprinted article "The fate of the claudicant--a prospective study of 1969 claudicants"

A prospective study of 1969 patients with intermittent claudication receiving placebo medication for a minimum of 1 year is reported. Patients were carefully monitored and only four patients were lost to follow-up. Annual mortality was 4.3%. Thirty-six patients developed a definite myocardial infarction, 27 a major stroke, 32 required a major amputation and 111 required surgical or radiological intervention for deteriorating ischaemia of the leg. The entry characteristics of the patients were analysed as a predictor of serious cardiovascular events. The most sensitive predictors of total mortality were age, history of coronary heart disease and an ankle/arm pressure ratio below 0.5. Of the laboratory measurements performed only the initial white cell count was a significant predictor of myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular deaths.

Ankle brachial index combined with Framingham Risk Score to predict cardiovascular events and mortality: a meta-analysis

CONTEXT

Prediction models to identify healthy individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease have limited accuracy. A low ankle brachial index (ABI) is an indicator of atherosclerosis and has the potential to improve prediction.

OBJECTIVE

To determine if the ABI provides information on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality independently of the Framingham risk score (FRS) and can improve risk prediction.

DATA SOURCES

Relevant studies were identified. A search of MEDLINE (1950 to February 2008) and EMBASE (1980 to February 2008) was conducted using common text words for the term ankle brachial index combined with text words and Medical Subject Headings to capture prospective cohort designs. Review of reference lists and conference proceedings, and correspondence with experts was conducted to identify additional published and unpublished studies.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies were included if participants were derived from a general population, ABI was measured at baseline, and individuals were followed up to detect total and cardiovascular mortality.

DATA EXTRACTION

Prespecified data on individuals in each selected study were extracted into a combined data set and an individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted on individuals who had no previous history of coronary heart disease.

RESULTS

Sixteen population cohort studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included. During 480,325 person-years of follow-up of 24,955 men and 23,339 women, the risk of death by ABI had a reverse J-shaped distribution with a normal (low risk) ABI of 1.11 to 1.40. The 10-year cardiovascular mortality in men with a low ABI (< or = 0.90) was 18.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.3%-24.1%) and with normal ABI (1.11-1.40) was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.7%) (hazard ratio [HR], 4.2; 95% CI, 3.3-5.4). Corresponding mortalities in women were 12.6% (95% CI, 6.2%-19.0%) and 4.1% (95% CI, 2.2%-6.1%) (HR, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.4-5.1). The HRs remained elevated after adjusting for FRS (2.9 [95% CI, 2.3-3.7] for men vs 3.0 [95% CI, 2.0-4.4] for women). A low ABI (< or = 0.90) was associated with approximately twice the 10-year total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and major coronary event rate compared with the overall rate in each FRS category. Inclusion of the ABI in cardiovascular risk stratification using the FRS would result in reclassification of the risk category and modification of treatment recommendations in approximately 19% of men and 36% of women.

CONCLUSION

Measurement of the ABI may improve the accuracy of cardiovascular risk prediction beyond the FRS.

Selectivity of NSAIDs for COX-2 and cardiovascular outcome

BACKGROUND

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) with increased selectivity for the cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) isoform reduce gastrotoxicity but may increase adverse cardiovascular events.

METHODS

We searched the literature for studies that reported the odds ratio (OR) for such events following exposure to NSAIDs.

RESULTS

For studies comparing NSAID use with no use, increased COX-2 selectivity was significantly related to cardiovascular risk (log OR) amongst observational studies (R = -0.34, P < 0.001) and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (R = -0.56, P < 0.001). For studies comparing NSAIDs, difference in selectivity was related to risk for observational studies (R = -0.28, P = 0.005) but not for RCTs (R = -0.23, P = 0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

Although increased COX-2 selectivity may reduce gastrotoxicity, this may be at the cost of increasing cardiovascular risk.

Enhanced upper respiratory tract airflow and head fanning reduce brain temperature in brain-injured, mechanically ventilated patients: a randomized, crossover, factorial trial

BACKGROUND

Heat loss from the upper airways and through the skull are physiological mechanisms of brain cooling which have not been fully explored clinically.

METHODS

This randomized, crossover, factorial trial in 12 brain-injured, orally intubated patients investigated the effect of enhanced nasal airflow (high flow unhumidified air with 20 p.p.m. nitric oxide gas) and bilateral head fanning on frontal lobe brain temperature and selective brain cooling. After a 30 min baseline, each patient received the four possible combinations of the interventions--airflow, fanning, both together, no intervention--in randomized order. Each combination was delivered for 30 min and followed by a 30 min washout, the last 5 min of which provided the baseline for the next intervention.

RESULTS

The difference in mean brain temperature over the last 5 min of the preceding washout minus the mean over the last 5 min of intervention, was 0.15 degrees C with nasal airflow (P=0.001, 95% CI 0.06-0.23 degrees C) and 0.26 degrees C with head fanning (P<0.001, 95% CI 0.17-0.34 degrees C). The estimate of the combined effect of airflow and fanning on brain temperature was 0.41 degrees C. Selective brain cooling did not occur.

CONCLUSION

Physiologically, this study demonstrates that heat loss through the upper airways and through the skull can reduce parenchymal brain temperature in brain-injured humans and the onset of temperature reduction is rapid. Clinically, in ischaemic stroke, a temperature decrease of 0.27 degrees C may reduce the relative risk of poor outcome by 10-20%. Head fanning may have the potential to achieve a temperature decrease of this order.

Risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease associated with the ankle-brachial index: Systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To determine the strength and consistency with which a low ankle brachial pressure index (ABI), measured in the general population, is associated with an increased risk of subsequent death and/or cardiovascular events.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, reference lists and grey literature were searched; studies known to experts were also retrieved.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All cause mortality, fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease and stroke.

REVIEW METHODS

Longitudinal studies in which participants were representative of the general population (all ages, either sex) and which used any standard method for measurement and calculation of the ABI. Studies in which participants were selected according to presence of pre-existing disease or were post intervention (e.g. angioplasty or peripheral arterial grafting) were excluded.

RESULTS

11 studies comprising 44,590 subjects from six different countries were included. Despite clinical heterogeneity between studies, the findings were remarkably consistent in demonstrating an increased risk of clinical cardiovascular disease associated with a low ABI. A low ABI (<0.9) was associated with an increased risk of subsequent all cause mortality (pooled RR 1.60, 95% CI 1.32-1.95), cardiovascular mortality (pooled RR 1.96, 95% CI 1.46-2.64), coronary heart disease (pooled RR 1.45, 95% CI 1.08-1.93) and stroke (pooled RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.10-1.65) after adjustment for age, sex, conventional cardiovascular risk factors and prevalent cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

The ABI may help to identify asymptomatic individuals in the general population who are at increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular events. Evaluation is now required of the potential of incorporating ABI measurement into cardiovascular prevention programmes.

Disability in young people and adults after head injury: 5-7 year follow up of a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Improvement 1-2 years after head injury is well established but the pattern thereafter is unclear. Past studies have not examined representative head injury populations and typically report findings in terms of functioning across social, psychological, neurobehavioural, or cognitive domains rather than global outcome.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the late outcome of a representative cohort of participants admitted to hospital after a head injury 5-7 years previously and to identify early and late factors correlating with persisting disability and change between one and 5-7 years.

METHODS

A representative cohort of head injured people whose outcome one year after injury was reported previously, were followed up 5-7 years after injury. Participants were assessed using structured and validated measures of global outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended), cognitive impairment, psychological wellbeing, health status, and social factors.

RESULTS

Of 475 survivors studied at one year, 115 (24%) had died by seven years. In survivors at 5-7 years, disability remained frequent (53%); and the rate, similar to that found at one year (57%). Sixty three participants (29%) had improved but 55 (25%) deteriorated. The persistence of disability and its development after previous recovery each showed stronger associations with indices of depression, anxiety, and low self-esteem than with initial severity of injury or persisting cognitive impairment.

CONCLUSIONS

Admission to hospital after head injury is followed 5-7 years later by disability in a high proportion of survivors. Persistence of disability and development of new disability are strongly associated with psychosocial factors that may be open to remediation, even late after injury.

The association between APOE ε4, age and outcome after head injury: a prospective cohort study

Previous preliminary studies have suggested that possession of the APOE epsilon4 allele is associated with a poor outcome after head injury. This study was designed to confirm and extend those observations in a larger study with examination of additional variables. We prospectively identified admissions to a Neurosurgical Unit for head injury, collected demographic and clinical data, determined APOE genotypes and obtained follow-up information at 6 months. A total of 1094 subjects were enrolled (age range: 0-93 years, mean 37 years). Outcome was assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Scale. There was no overall association between APOE genotype and outcome, with 36% of APOE epsilon4 carriers having an unfavourable outcome compared with 33% of non-carriers of APOE epsilon4. However, there was evidence of an interaction between age and APOE genotype on outcome (P = 0.007) such that possession of APOE epsilon4 reduced the prospect of a favourable outcome in children and young adults. The influence of APOE genotype in younger patients after head injury can be expressed as, at age <15 years, carriage of APOE epsilon4 being equivalent to ageing by 25 years. This finding is consistent with experimental data suggesting that the effect of APOE genotype on outcome after head injury may be expressed through the processes of repair and recovery.

Randomized controlled trial of effects of the airflow through the upper respiratory tract of intubated brain-injured patients on brain temperature and selective brain cooling

BACKGROUND

Pyrexia is common after brain injury; it is generally believed to affect outcome adversely and the usual clinical methods of reducing temperature are not effective. The normal physiological mechanisms of brain cooling are heat loss from the upper airways and through the skull, and these can produce selective brain cooling.

METHODS

Air at room temperature and humidity was continuously administered to 15 brain-injured, intubated and mechanically ventilated patients via a sponge-tipped oxygen catheter in each nostril at a combined rate of 115 ml kg(-1) min(-1). Brain temperature was measured using a pressure-temperature Camino catheter which is designed to site the thermistor 1 cm into the parenchyma in the frontal lobe. Oesophageal temperature was measured using an oesophageal stethoscope with a thermistor. After establishing baseline for 30 min, patients were randomized to receive airflow or no airflow for 6 h and then crossed over for a further 6 h.

RESULTS

Airflow replicating normal resting minute volume did not produce clinically relevant or statistically significant reductions in brain temperature [0.13 (SD 0.55) degrees C; 95% CI, 0.43-0.17 degrees C]. However, we serendipitously found some evidence of selective brain cooling via the skull, but this needs further substantiation.

CONCLUSIONS

A flow of humidified air at room temperature through the upper respiratory tracts of intubated brain-injured patients did not produce clinically relevant or statistically significant reductions in brain temperature measured in the frontal lobe.

Effects of carvedilol on left ventricular remodelling in chronic stable heart failure: a cardiovascular magnetic resonance study

BACKGROUND

The ability of beta blockers to improve left ventricular function has been demonstrated, but data on the effects on cardiac remodelling are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate, using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR), the effects of carvedilol on left ventricular remodelling in patients with chronic stable heart failure and left ventricular systolic dysfunction caused by coronary artery disease.

DESIGN

Randomised, double blind, placebo controlled study.

SETTING

Chronic stable heart failure.

PATIENTS AND INTERVENTION

34 patients with chronic stable heart failure and left ventricular systolic function taking part in the CHRISTMAS trial (double blind carvedilol v placebo) underwent CMR before randomisation and after six months of treatment.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Left ventricular remodelling at six months.

RESULTS

The carvedilol and placebo groups were well balanced at baseline, with no significant intergroup differences. Over the study period, there was a significant reduction in end systolic volume index (ESV(I)) and end diastolic volume index (EDV(I)) between the carvedilol and the placebo group (carvedilol -9 v placebo +3 ml/m2, p = 0.0004; carvedilol -8 v placebo 0 ml/m2, p = 0.05). The ejection fraction increased significantly between the groups (carvedilol +3% v placebo -2%, p = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment of chronic stable heart failure with carvedilol results in significant improvement in left ventricular volumes and function. These effects might contribute to the benefits of carvedilol on mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic heart failure.

Clinical trials in traumatic brain injury: current problems and future solutions

Over the past decade many neuroprotective agents have been developed with the hope of being able to improve outcome in patients with traumatic brain injury. Unfortunately, none of the phase III trials performed have convincingly demonstrated efficacy in the overall population. A common misconception is that consequently these agents are ineffective. Such has not been proven and some trials show evidence of efficacy in subgroups of the population studied. The negative results, as reported in the overall population, may in part be caused by specific aspects of the TBI population, as well as by aspects of clinical trial design and analysis. Clinical trials in TBI pose several complicated design issues. Methodological challenges relate particularly to heterogeneity of the population and to outcome assessment. Heterogeneity pertains both to the range of pathologies included in TBI, and to prognostic factors, each causing specific problems. Mechanistic and/or prognostic targeting, as well as possibilities for covariate adjustment, are suggested as possible solutions to deal with the problems of heterogeneity. The aim in most trials was to demonstrate a 10% absolute improvement in favorable outcome in patients with head injury. This may be considered overoptimistic and unrealistic in relation to the heterogeneous patient population. Specific problems are further incurred by the use of the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Scale as primary outcome measure. Optimal statistical power may expected to be present when the point of dichotomization results in a 50:50 distribution of outcome categories. It is proposed to differentiate the point of dichotomization according to prognostic risk profile, in order to maintain statistical power. Solutions described may be expected to enhance chances of demonstrating benefit of potentially effective neuroprotective agents in future studies. The complexity of problems occurring in clinical trial design and analysis in TBI is such that a strong and sustained multidisciplinary input and effort is required from all experts involved in the field of neurotrauma.

Long term neuropsychological outcome after head injury: relation to APOE genotype

BACKGROUND

Existing evidence suggests that some patients who sustain a head injury suffer cognitive decline many years later, and that head injury and possession of the APOE epsilon 4 allele are each risk factors for Alzheimer's disease.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether late cognitive decline after head injury is more prevalent among carriers of APOE epsilon 4.

METHODS

A database of head injured patients was used. Initial assessment was at the time of their injury, between 1968 and 1985, and outcome data at six months were available. Their ages at the time of injury ranged between 2 and 70 years. A cohort of 396 subjects was reassessed at a mean of 18 years later, with determination of APOE genotype and detailed neuropsychological testing.

RESULTS

Judging by the Glasgow outcome scale, twice as many patients had deteriorated as improved between six months after injury and the late assessment; 22.2% of APOE epsilon 4 carriers had a good late outcome compared with 30.5% of non-carriers (95% confidence interval for the difference, -0.7% to 17.2%; p = 0.084). There were no clear differences between epsilon 4 carriers and non-carriers in detailed neuropsychological assessments.

CONCLUSIONS

Although this study provides additional evidence that a late decline may occur after head injury, there was no clear relation to APOE genotype. Despite the follow up interval of 15 to 25 years, the cohort is still too young (mean age 42.1 years) to assess the risk of Alzheimer's disease.

Myocardial viability as a determinant of the ejection fraction response to carvedilol in patients with heart failure (CHRISTMAS trial): randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The improvement in left-ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in response to beta blockers is heterogeneous in patients with heart failure due to ischaemic heart disease, possibly indicating variations in the myocardial substrate underlying left-ventricular dysfunction. We investigated whether improvement in LVEF was associated with the volume of hibernating myocardium (viable myocardium with contractile failure).

METHODS

We did a double-blind, randomised trial to compare placebo and carvedilol for 6 months in individuals with stable, chronic heart failure due to ischaemic left-ventricular systolic dysfunction. We enrolled 489 patients, of whom 387 were randomised. Patients were designated hibernators or non-hibernators according to the volume of hibernating myocardium. The primary endpoint was change in LVEF, measured by radionuclide ventriculography, in hibernators versus non-hibernators, on carvedilol compared with placebo. Analysis was by intention to treat.

RESULTS

82 patients dropped out of the study because of adverse events, withdrawal of consent, or failure to complete the investigation. Thus, 305 (79%) were analysed. LVEF was unchanged with placebo (mean change -0.4 [SE 0.9] and -0.4 [0.8] for non-hibernators and hibernators, respectively) but increased with carvedilol (2.5 [0.9] and 3.2 [0.8], respectively; p<0.0001 compared with baseline). Mean placebo-subtracted change in LVEF was 3.2% (95% CI 1.8-4.7; p=0.0001) overall, and 2.9% (0.7-5.1; p=0.011) and 3.6% (1.7-5.4; p=0.0002) in non-hibernators and hibernators, respectively. Effect of hibernator status on response of LVEF to carvedilol was not significant (0.7 [-2.2 to 3.5]; p=0.644). However, patients with more myocardium affected by hibernation or by hibernation and ischaemia had a greater increase in LVEF on carvedilol (p=0.0002 and p=0.009, respectively).

INTERPRETATION

Some of the effect of carvedilol on LVEF might be mediated by improved function of hibernating or ischaemic myocardium, or both. Medical treatment might be an important adjunct or alternative to revascularisation for patients with hibernating myocardium.

A two-centred pragmatic randomised controlled trial of two interventions of postnatal support

OBJECTIVES

To establish whether providing additional postnatal support during the early postnatal months influences women's physical and psychological health and to identify health service benefits.

DESIGN

Pragmatic randomised controlled trial with a 2 x 2 factorial design with two interventions.

SETTING

Community centres, Ayrshire and Grampian, Scotland.

POPULATION

One thousand and four primiparous women, 83% completed the baseline questionnaire, 71% at six months.

METHODS

(1) An invitation to a local postnatal support group run weekly with a facilitator, starting two weeks postpartum. (2) A postnatal support manual, posted two weeks postpartum.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Data regarding primary outcome postnatal depression (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS), secondary outcomes, general health measures (SF-36), social support (SSQ6), use of health services and women's views of interventions were collected at two weeks postpartum and at three and six months.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in EPDS scores between the control and trial arms at three and six months, nor were there differences in the SF-36 and the SSQ6 scores. The 95% CI for the difference in EPDS effectively excluded a change in mean score of more than 10% with either intervention. There were no differences in health service attendances in primary or secondary care between the control and trial arms. Of those women who attended the groups, 40% attended six or more. Women reported favourably on the 'pack' with the majority reading it a few times and feeling that it was aimed at them.

CONCLUSIONS

Wide-scale provision by the National Health Service of either support groups or self-help manuals is not appropriate if the aim is to improve measurable health outcomes.

Randomized clinical trial comparing self-expanding metallic stents with plastic endoprostheses in the palliation of oesophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

There is little evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of self-expanding metallic stents in the palliation of oesophageal cancer. The aims of this randomized trial were to evaluate the immediate and medium-term clinical outcomes following palliative intubation, examine patient quality of life, and evaluate costs and benefits from the perspective of the health service.

METHODS

Fifty patients with inoperable oesophageal cancer were randomly allocated a metallic stent (n = 25) or plastic endoprosthesis (n = 25). Patients were followed up monthly until death.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in procedure-related complications or mortality rate between the two groups. There was a trend towards significance in favour of metallic stents with respect to quality of life and survival (median survival 62 versus 107 days for plastic prosthesis and metallic stent respectively). The cost of the initial placement of metallic stents was significantly higher than that of plastic endoprostheses ( pound 983 versus pound 296). After 4 weeks, cost differences were no longer significant.

CONCLUSION

Metallic stents may contribute to improved survival and quality of life in patients with oesophageal cancer. Although initially more expensive, this cost difference does not last beyond 4 weeks. A larger trial involving approximately 300 patients would be required to detect a quality of life benefit of the magnitude observed in this trial.

Flame burn admissions and fire fatalities in Scotland with particular reference to the Strathclyde (Glasgow) region, and their prevention

Scotland has the highest rate of fire fatalities in the UK. Nearly 50% of the population and fire deaths in Scotland are in the Strathclyde region. The data from the burns unit at Glasgow Royal Infirmary were studied to find the number of admissions due to flame burns and see how it compared with the fire deaths. During 1981-1993, amongst 2771 admissions to the burns unit, 1181 (43%) were due to flame burns and out of these flame burn victims, 69% were adults, 16% elderly and 15% children. The distribution of cases according to the total body surface area (TBSA) involvement was 866 (73%) with 1-15%, 165 (14%) with 16-30%, and 150 (13%) with > or =31% TBSA burns. The annual number of flame burn admissions declined during 1981-1993. In the Glasgow region 50% of the domestic fires leading to non-fatal burns or to death were started by misuse of smoking materials. Chip pan fires were responsible for 8% of admissions to the burns unit. The annual number of fire fatalities when reviewed for a longer period 1973-1995 also showed a decreasing trend. Further educational and legislative measures to prevent flame burns are discussed.

Comparison of UK paediatric cardiac surgical performance by analysis of routinely collected data 1984-96: was Bristol an outlier?

BACKGROUND

Reports of high mortality after paediatric cardiac surgery at the Bristol Royal Infirmary, UK, led to the establishment of an independent public inquiry. A key question was whether or not the mortality statistics in Bristol were unusual compared with other specialist centres. To answer this question, we did a retrospective analysis of mortality in the UK using two datasets.

METHODS

Data from the UK Cardiac Surgical Register (CSR; January, 1984, to March, 1996) and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES; April, 1991, to December, 1995) were obtained for all 12 major centres in which paediatric cardiac surgery is done in the UK. The main outcome measure was mortality within 30 days of a cardiac surgical procedure. We estimated excess deaths in Bristol using a random-effects model derived from the remaining 11 centres. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was done and case-mix examined.

FINDINGS

For children younger than 1 year, in open operations, the mortality rate in Bristol was around double that of the other centres during 1991-95: within the CSR, there were 19.0 excess deaths (95% interval 2-32) among 43 deaths; and in HES, there were 24.1 excess deaths (12-34) among 41 deaths recorded. There was no strong evidence for excess mortality in Bristol for closed operations or for open operations in children older than 1 year.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that Bristol was an outlier, and we do not believe that statistical variation, systematic bias in data collection, case-mix, or data quality can explain a divergence in performance of this size.

The influence of apolipoprotein E genotype on outcome after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage: a preliminary study

OBJECTIVE

Possession of an apolipoprotein E (APOE)epsilon4 allele has been shown to be associated with a poor outcome after closed head injury and spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage but not after ischemic stroke. This study assessed the influence of the APOE genotype on outcome in patients admitted to a neurosurgical unit with spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage.

METHODS

A total of 100 patients with spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage were studied. Four patients were excluded because the diagnosis of subarachnoid hemorrhage was not confirmed. The incidence of rehemorrhage and delayed ischemia and the outcome at 6 months were determined using the Glasgow Outcome Scale. APOE genotypes were determined by polymerase chain reaction and restriction enzyme digestion.

RESULTS

Allele frequencies in this patient group were 0.04 for epsilon2, 0.86 for epsilon3, and 0.1 for epsilon4. Of 96 patients, 72 had an aneurysmal hemorrhage and 1 had a hemorrhage from an arteriovenous malformation. In 14 patients, the results of angiography were negative, and in 9, no angiogram was performed. Of the 96 patients, 20 had one or more epsilon4 allele. Outcome at 6 months was no worse in patients with one or more epsilon4 allele than in those with no epsilon4 allele (odds ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.35-2.74). None of the 12 patients who experienced delayed ischemic deterioration had an epsilon4 allele. Of the 20 patients with an epsilon4 allele, 3 had a rehemorrhage, as compared with 6 of 76 patients without an epsilon4 allele.

CONCLUSION

There was underrepresentation of the epsilon4 allele in this group when compared with previously studied cases of subarachnoid hemorrhage with a fatal outcome and with the general population. This suggests that patients with the epsilon4 allele who have a subarachnoid hemorrhage are less likely to be admitted to a neurosurgical unit. This study does not support an association between possession of an epsilon4 allele and poor outcome in patients admitted to a neurosurgical unit with spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage, although the wide confidence interval does not preclude a clinically relevant association between APOE genotype and outcome. The findings indicate that an association between genotype and the development of delayed ischemic complications after subarachnoid hemorrhage may be possible.

Using routine data to complement and enhance the results of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are widely accepted as the best way to assess the outcomes and safety of medical interventions, but are sometimes not ethical, not feasible, or limited in the generalisability of their results. In such circumstances, routinely available data could help in several ways. Routine data could be used, for example, to conduct 'pseudo-trials', to estimate likely outcomes and required sample size to help design and conduct trials, or to examine whether the expected outcomes observed in an RCT will be realised in the general population.

OBJECTIVES

The project was undertaken to explore how routinely assembled hospital data might complement or supplement RCTs to evaluate medical interventions: in contexts where RCTs are not feasible for defining the context and design of an RCT for assessing whether the benefits indicated by RCTs are achieved in wider clinical practice.

METHODS

The project was based on the system of linked Scottish morbidity records, which cover 100% of acute hospital care episodes and statutory death records from 1981 to 1995. Three case studies were undertaken as a way of investigating the utility of these records in different applications. First, an attempt was made to analyse the link between the timing of surgery for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) and subsequent outcomes (a question not easily susceptible to RCT design). A subsample was derived by excluding patients for which a diagnosis of SAH may not have been established or that may not have been admitted to a neurosurgical unit, and the data were assessed to attempt to inform the design of a trial of early versus late surgery. Transurethral prostatectomy (TURP), the second case study, has become the surgery of choice for benign prostatic hyperplasia without systematic assessment of its effectiveness and safety, and an RCT would now be considered unethical. However, there is a need to investigate long-term effects and the influence of co-morbidities on outcomes. A retrospective comparison of mortality and re-operation following either open prostatectomy (OPEN) or TURP was, therefore, undertaken. Patients for whom it was not possible to establish the initial procedure were excluded. The third case study compared coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTCA) for coronary revascularisation. RCTs have been conducted in limited patient subgroups with short follow-up periods. A meta-analysis of RCTs could be augmented by routine data, which are available for large populations. This would allow assessment of subgroup effects, and outcomes over a long period. A subgroup of patients was therefore constructed for whom relevant routine data were available and who reflected the entry criteria for major RCTs, thus enabling a comparison between the results expected from this subgroup and those of the general population.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The uses of routine data in these contexts had strengths and weaknesses. The SAH study suggested a means of assessing outcomes and survival rates following haemorrhage, which could have value in informing the design of more precise trials and in evaluating changes in outcome following the introduction of new treatments such as embolisation. However, the potential of the data was not realised because their scope and content were insufficient. For example, lack of data on the time of onset of symptoms and patients' conditions at hospital admission made it difficult to establish the link between timing of surgery and the outcome, and there was insufficient information on patients' conditions at discharge to enable a comparison of outcomes. The prostatectomy study was able to address questions not answered by RCT literature because the large number of cases it included allowed exploration of subgroup effects. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)

Intensive care management of head-injured patients in Europe: a survey from the European brain injury consortium

OBJECTIVES

(a) to describe current practice in the monitoring and treatment of moderate and severe head injuries in Europe; (b) to report on intracranial pressure and cerebral perfusion pressure monitoring, occurrence of measured and reported intracranial hypertension, and complications related to this monitoring; (c) to investigate the relationship between the severity of injury, the frequency of monitoring and management, and outcome.

METHODS

A three-page questionnaire comprising 60 items of information has been compiled by 67 centres in 12 European countries. Information was collected prospectively regarding all severe and moderate head injuries in adults (> 16 years) admitted to neurosurgery within 24 h of injury. A total of 1005 adult head injury cases were enrolled in the study from 1 February 1995 to 30 April 1995. The Glasgow Outcome Scale was administered at 6 months.

RESULTS

Early surgery was performed in 346 cases (35%); arterial pressure was monitored invasively in 631 (68%), ICP in 346 (37%), and jugular bulb saturation in 173 (18%). Artificial ventilation was provided to 736 patients (78%). Intracranial hypertension was noted in 55% of patients in whom ICP was recorded, while it was suspected in only 12% of cases without ICP measurement. There were great differences in the use of ventilation and CPP monitoring among the centres. Mortality at 6 months was 31%. There was an association between an increased frequency of monitoring and intervention and an increased severity of injury; correspondingly, patients who more frequently underwent monitoring and ventilation had a less favourable outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

In Europe there are great differences between centres in the frequency of CPP monitoring and ventilatory support applied to head-injured patients. ICP measurement disclosed a high rate of intracranial hypertension, which was not suspected in patients evaluated on a clinical basis alone. ICP monitoring was associated with a low rate of complications. Cases with severe neurological impairment, and with the worse outcome, were treated and monitored more intensively.

A unique insight into the incidence of rugby injuries using referee replacement reports

OBJECTIVES

To obtain further information the incidence of injuries and playing positions affected in club rugby in Scotland.

METHODS

Routine reports of injury (permanent) and blood (temporary) replacements occurring in competitive club rugby matches by referees to the Scottish Rugby Union during seasons 1990-1991 to 1996-1997 were analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 3,513 injuries (87 per 100 scheduled matches) and 1,000 blood replacements (34 per 100 scheduled matches) were reported. Forwards accounted for 60% of the injury and 72% of the blood replacements. Flankers and the front row were the most commonly replaced forwards while wing and centre three quarters were the most vulnerable playing positions among backs. The incidence of injury replacements increased as the match progressed up until the last 10 minutes when the trend was reversed. Blood replacements showed a different pattern with 60% occurring during the first half of the match.

CONCLUSION

The most important finding of the study was reliability of referees in documenting the vulnerability of certain playing positions, and the timing when injuries took place, thus assisting coaches and team selectors when choosing replacement players for competitive club and representative rugby matches. This study re-emphasises the need for continuing epidemiological research.

Pre-existing cognitive impairment as a factor influencing outcome after cardiac surgery

Conventional methodology to investigate cognitive impairment after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery leaves unclear the potential for pre-existing cognitive deficits to influence outcome. Individuals with pre-existing deficits may be more vulnerable to the effects of CABG, hence biasing the results of a typical prospective trial if account is not taken of their state. The present study examined the effect of pre-existing cognitive impairment upon cognitive outcome in 81 patients undergoing CABG. Patients performed the Stroop Neuropsychological Screening Test and other psychometric assessments prior to and at 6 days and 6 months after CABG. Those with pre-existing cognitive deficits were significantly more likely to display impairment at 6-day and 6-month follow-ups than were those without pre-existing deficits. Greater age and lower pre-morbid intelligence were also significant predictors of post-CABG deficit, confirming earlier findings. The results imply both that pre-existing cognitive impairments may render patients more vulnerable to post-operative deficits and that, in the absence of such pre-existing impairments, CABG surgery does not inevitably lead to later deficits. The study also replicated previous findings showing a similar influence of pre-existing depression upon emotional state after CABG. Overall, the results confirm the importance both of a patient's pre-existing cognitive and emotional states, and the methodology to assess them, in influencing outcome after cardiac surgery and the conclusions to be drawn as to the supposed adverse effects of the procedure.

Efficacy and safety of the endothelin, receptor antagonist TAK-044 in treating subarachnoid hemorrhage: a report by the Steering Committee on behalf of the UK/Netherlands/Eire TAK-044 Subarachnoid Haemorrhage Study Group

OBJECT

Delayed cerebral ischemia remains an important cause of death and disability in patients who have suffered subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Endothelin (ET) has a potent contractile effect on cerebral arteries and arterioles and has been implicated in vasospasm. The authors administered ET(A/B) receptor antagonist (TAK-044) to patients suffering from aneurysmal SAH. They then assessed whether this agent reduced the occurrence of delayed cerebral ischemic events and examined its safety profile in this group of patients.

METHODS

Four hundred twenty patients who had suffered an SAH were recruited into a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group phase II trial. The primary end point was whether a delayed ischemic event occurred within 3 months after the first dose of the study drug and the secondary end points included determining whether a delayed ischemic event occurred by 10 days after the first dose of the study drug, whether a new cerebral infarct was demonstrated on a computerized tomography scan or at postmortem examination by 3 months after administration of the initial dose, the patient's Glasgow Outcome Scale scores at 3 months after the initial dose, and adverse events. There was a lower incidence of delayed ischemic events at 3 months in the TAK-044-treated group: 29.5% compared with 36.6% in a group of patients receiving placebo. The estimated relative risk was 0.8 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.61 to 1.06. There were no significant differences in the secondary end points, including clinical outcomes in the placebo-treated and TAK-044-treated groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The TAK-044 was well tolerated by patients who had suffered an SAH, even though hypotension and headache--side effects compatible with the drug's vasodilatory properties--occurred. It would be valuable to proceed to a fully powered phase III trial of an ET receptor antagonist in treating aneurysmal SAH.

Increased augmentation index and systolic stress in type 1 diabetes mellitus

Type 1 diabetes mellitus is associated with endothelial dysfunction and increased arterial stiffness, both of which may contribute to the excess cardiovascular mortality in such patients. Arterial stiffening increases pulse wave velocity and wave reflection, which augments central systolic pressure and stress. Using the non-invasive technique of pulse wave analysis, we investigated aortic augmentation and central pressure in 35 patients with type 1 diabetes and 35 matched controls. Peripheral pulse waveforms were recorded from the radial artery. Central aortic waveforms were then generated, and augmentation index (AIx), ascending aortic pressure and tension time index (TTI), a measure of systolic load, were calculated. Peripheral and central blood pressure did not differ between the two groups. AIx was significantly elevated in the diabetic patients compared with controls (7.1+/-1.6% vs. 0.4+/-2.0%; p=0.01), as was the TTI (2307+/-51 mmHg x s x min(-1) vs. 2010+/-61 mmHg. s x min(-1); p<0.001). Estimated pulse wave velocity was also higher in the diabetic group. Type 1 diabetes is associated with an increased AIx and rate of wave travel, indicating enhanced wave reflection and increased systemic arterial stiffness, and elevation of the TTI. Such haemodynamic effects may contribute to the increased left ventricular mass and risk of cardiovascular disease associated with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

Disability in young people and adults one year after head injury: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the frequency of disability in young people and adults admitted to hospital with a head injury and to estimate the annual incidence in the community.

DESIGN

Prospective, hospital based cohort study, with one year follow up of sample stratified by coma score.

SETTING

Five acute hospitals in Glasgow.

SUBJECTS

2962 patients (aged 14 years or more) with head injury; 549 (71%) of the 769 patients selected for follow up participated.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Glasgow outcome scale and problem orientated questionnaire.

RESULTS

Survival with moderate or severe disability was common after mild head injury (47%, 95% confidence interval 42% to 52%) and similar to that after moderate (45%, 35% to 56%) or severe injury (48%, 36% to 60%). By extrapolation from the population identified (90% of whom had mild injuries), it was estimated that annually in Glasgow (population 909 498) 1400 young people and adults are still disabled one year after head injury.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of disability in young people and adults admitted with a head injury is higher than expected. This reflects the high rate of sequelae previously unrecognised in the large number of patients admitted to hospital with an apparently mild head injury.

Public health implications of new guidelines for lead in drinking water: a case study in an area with historically high water lead levels

Concern about the neurotoxicity of lead, particularly in infants and young children, has led to a revision of blood lead levels which are considered to involve an acceptable level of human exposure. Drinking water guidelines have also been reviewed in order to reduce this source of population exposure to lead. In the last 20 years, guidelines have been reduced from 100 to 50 to 10 microg/litre. Lead in tap water used to be a major public health problem in Glasgow because of the high prevalence of houses with lead service pipes, the low pH of the public water supply and the resulting high levels of lead in water used for public consumption. Following two separate programmes of water treatment, involving the addition of lime and, a decade later, lime supplemented with orthophosphate, it is considered that maximal measures have been taken to reduce lead exposure by chemical treatment of the water supply. Any residual problem of public exposure would require large scale replacement of lead service pipes. In anticipation of the more stringent limits for lead in drinking water, we set out to measure current lead exposure from tap water in the population of Glasgow served by the Loch Katrine water supply, to compare the current situation with 12 years previously and to assess the public health implications of different limits. The study was based on mothers of young children since maternal blood lead concentrations and the domestic water that mothers use to prepare bottle feeds are the principal sources of foetal and infant lead exposure. An estimated 17% of mothers lived in households with tap water lead concentrations of 10 microg/litre (the [WHO,] guideline) or above in 1993 compared with 49% in 1981. Mean maternal blood lead concentrations fell by 69% in 12 years. For a given water lead concentration, maternal blood lead concentrations were 67% lower. The mean maternal blood lead concentration was 3.7 microg/litre in the population at large, compared with 3.3 microg/litre in households with negligible or absent tap water lead. Nevertheless, between 63% and 76% of cases of mothers with blood lead concentrations of 10 microg/dl or above were attributable to tap water lead. The study found that maternal blood lead concentrations were well within limits currently considered safe for human health. About 15% of infants may be exposed via bottle feeds to tap water lead concentrations that exceed the WHO guideline of 10 microg/litre. In the context of the health and social problems which affect the well-being and development of infants and children in Glasgow, however, current levels of lead exposure are considered to present a relatively minor health problem.

A comparison of reports from referees chosen by authors or journal editors in the peer review process

The aim was to analyse the peer review process by comparing reports produced by referees selected by journal editors, with those of referees selected by the authors of a scientific manuscript. Some 104 consecutive papers from the UK submitted to the British Journal of Surgery (BJS) were included. Of these, 102 were reviewed blind both by referees chosen by the journal editors, and referees chosen by the paper's principal author. Manuscripts were marked using a standard sheet for four basic aspects: originality, clinical/scientific importance, clarity and analysis; a final overall recommendation about possible publication was given. The time taken and the number of completed referee reports were similar in each group. Referees chosen by the BJS editors were more critical (scored higher) of the submitted articles. Mean scores for all domains were higher than for authors' referees, significantly for scientific importance (p = 0.009) and decision to publish (p = 0.029). In conclusion, reports produced by referees selected by BJS editors were more critical than those chosen by authors of the papers. Authors might argue that this reduced their chance of publication but constructive criticism might improve the final article and assist editors to make decisions about acceptance or rejection.

Genetic polymorphisms of cytochrome p4502E1 and susceptibility to alcoholic liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma in a white population: a study and literature review, including meta-analysis

AIMS

To investigate the associations between the Rsa I, Dra I, and Taq I genetic polymorphisms of cytochrome p4502E1 and susceptibility to alcoholic liver disease or to hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

DNA samples isolated from 61 patients with alcoholic liver disease, 46 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, and 375 healthy controls were subjected to polymerase chain reaction amplification followed by digestion with the endonucleases Rsa I, Dra I, or Taq I. Meta-analysis was performed using data from previous studies of Rsa I polymorphism and the risk of alcoholic liver disease.

RESULTS

No association was found between any of the three polymorphisms and susceptibility to hepatocellular carcinoma. The distributions of Rsa I and Dra I alleles among the patients with alcoholic liver disease were not significantly different from those among the control group. Meta-analysis of this data and previous data concerning Rsa I polymorphism and alcoholic liver disease risk failed to demonstrate any significant association between the two. However, the alcoholic liver disease group in this study showed a significantly lower frequency of the less common Taq I allele compared with the healthy control group (odds ratio, 0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.12 to 0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

Possession of the less common Taq I cytochrome p4502E1 allele is associated with reduced susceptibility to alcoholic liver disease. There is no existing evidence that the Taq I polymorphism is directly associated with altered alcohol metabolism, but it might be in linkage disequilibrium with as yet unidentified protective factors.

Domiciliary occupational therapy for patients with stroke discharged from hospital: randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To establish if a brief programme of domiciliary occupational therapy could improve the recovery of patients with stroke discharged from hospital.

DESIGN

Single blind randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Two hospital sites within a UK teaching hospital.

SUBJECTS

138 patients with stroke with a definite plan for discharge home from hospital.

INTERVENTION

Six week domiciliary occupational therapy or routine follow up.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Nottingham extended activities of daily living score and "global outcome" (deterioration according to the Barthel activities of daily living index, or death).

RESULTS

By eight weeks the mean Nottingham extended activities of daily living score in the intervention group was 4.8 points (95% confidence interval -0.5 to 10.0, P=0.08) greater than that of the control group. Overall, 16 (24%) intervention patients had a poor global outcome compared with 30 (42%) control patients (odds ratio 0.43, 0.21 to 0.89, P=0.02). These patterns persisted at six months but were not statistically significant. Patients in the intervention group were more likely to report satisfaction with a range of aspects of services.

CONCLUSION

The functional outcome and satisfaction of patients with stroke can be improved by a brief occupational therapy programme carried out in the patient's home immediately after discharge. Major benefits may not, however, be sustained.

Promoting good research practice

Embarking on a new millennium provides the stimulus both to take stock and also to look forward. In the field of medical statistics there is much to make us feel proud and excited. Rapid methodological developments together with parallel developments in computer technology have enormously expanded our statistical repertoire. At the same time, the high profile attained by the evidence-based medicine movement means that the importance of our discipline is recognized more widely then ever before. However, any medical statistician who is involved in medical publishing, or who is even a regular reader of the medical literature, must be aware of the yawning chasm between what is recognized as good statistical practice and what is actually published. Poor study design, inappropriate analysis and selective reporting are commonplace. In my opinion the most important challenge currently facing our profession is the task of bridging this chasm.

Effects of influenza vaccination of health-care workers on mortality of elderly people in long-term care: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Vaccination of health-care workers has been claimed to prevent nosocomial influenza infection of elderly patients in long-term care. Data are, however, limited on this strategy. We aimed to find out whether vaccination of health-care workers lowers mortality and the frequency of virologically proven influenza in such patients.

METHODS

In a parallel-group study, health-care workers in 20 long-term elderly-care hospitals (range 44-105 patients) were randomly offered or not offered influenza vaccine (cluster randomisation, stratified for policy for vaccination of patients and hospital size). All deaths among patients were recorded over 6 months in the winter of 1996-97. We selected a random sample of 50% of patients for virological surveillance for influenza, with combined nasal and throat swabs taken every 2 weeks during the epidemic period. Swabs were tested by tissue culture and PCR for influenza viruses A and B.

FINDINGS

Influenza vaccine uptake in health-care workers was 50.9% in hospitals in which they were routinely offered vaccine, compared with 4.9% in those in which they were not. The uncorrected rate of mortality in patients was 102 (13.6%) of 749 in vaccine hospitals compared with 154 (22.4%) of 688 in no-vaccine hospitals (odds ratio 0.58 [95% CI 0.40-0.84], p=0.014). The two groups did not differ for proportions of patients positive for influenza infection (5.4% and 6.7%, respectively); at necropsy, PCR was positive in none of 17 patients from vaccine hospitals and six (20%) of 30 from no-vaccine hospitals (p=0.055).

INTERPRETATION

Vaccination of health-care workers was associated with a substantial decrease in mortality among patients. However, virological surveillance showed no associated decrease in non-fatal influenza infection in patients.