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van de Wal RSW, Nicholls RJ, Behar D, McInnes K, Stammer D, Lowe JA, Church JA, DeConto R, Fettweis X, Goelzer H, Haasnoot M, Haigh ID, Hinkel J, Horton BP, James TS, Jenkins A, LeCozannet G, Levermann A, Lipscomb WH, Marzeion B, Pattyn F, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Price SF, Seroussi H, Sun S, Veatch W, White K. A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners. Earths Future 2022; 10:e2022EF002751. [PMID: 36590252 PMCID: PMC9787942 DOI: 10.1029/2022ef002751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2022] [Revised: 09/23/2022] [Accepted: 10/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.
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Affiliation(s)
- R. S. W. van de Wal
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research UtrechtUtrecht UniversityTA UtrechtThe Netherlands
- Department of Physical GeographyUtrecht UniversityTA UtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - R. J. Nicholls
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of East AngliaNorwichUK
| | - D. Behar
- San Francisco Public Utilities CommissionSan FranciscoCAUSA
| | - K. McInnes
- Climate Change Research CentreUNSW AustraliaSydneyNSWAustralia
| | - D. Stammer
- Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und NachhaltigkeitUniversität HamburgHamburgGermany
| | - J. A. Lowe
- Met Office Hadley CentreExeterUK
- Priestley CentreUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - J. A. Church
- Climate Change Research CentreUNSW AustraliaSydneyNSWAustralia
- Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS)University of TasmaniaHobartTASAustralia
| | - R. DeConto
- Department of GeosciencesUniversity of Massachusetts‐AmherstAmherstMAUSA
| | - X. Fettweis
- Department of GeographySPHERES Research UnitUniversity of LiègeLiègeBelgium
| | - H. Goelzer
- NORCE Norwegian Research CentreBjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway
| | | | - I. D. Haigh
- School of Ocean and Earth ScienceUniversity of SouthamptonNational Oceanography CentreSouthamptonUK
| | - J. Hinkel
- Adaptation and Social LearningGlobal Climate ForumBerlinGermany
| | - B. P. Horton
- Earth Observatory of SingaporeNanyang Technological UniversitySingaporeSingapore
- Asian School of the EnvironmentNanyang Technological UniversitySingaporeSingapore
| | - T. S. James
- Natural Resources CanadaGeological Survey of CanadaSidneyBCCanada
| | - A. Jenkins
- Department of Geography and Environmental SciencesNorthumbria UniversityNewcastle upon TyneUK
| | - G. LeCozannet
- Coastal Risks and Climate Change UnitRisks and Prevention DivisionBRGMOrléansFrance
| | - A. Levermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdamGermany
- LDEOColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
- Physics InstituteUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
| | - W. H. Lipscomb
- Climate and Global Dynamics LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderCOUSA
| | - B. Marzeion
- Institute of Geography and MARUM ‐ Center for Marine Environmental SciencesUniversity of BremenBremenGermany
| | - F. Pattyn
- Laboratoire de GlaciologieUniversité libre de BruxellesBrusselsBelgium
| | - A. J. Payne
- School of Geographical SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - W. T. Pfeffer
- INSTAAR and Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural EngineeringUniversity of ColoradoBoulderCOUSA
| | - S. F. Price
- Theoretical DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA
| | - H. Seroussi
- Thayer School of EngineeringDartmouth CollegeHanoverNHUSA
| | - S. Sun
- Coastal Risks and Climate Change UnitRisks and Prevention DivisionBRGMOrléansFrance
| | - W. Veatch
- US Army Corps of Engineers, HeadquartersWashingtonDCUSA
| | - K. White
- US Department of DefenseOffice of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (Environment and Energy Resilience)DCWashingtonUSA
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Larour E, Seroussi H, Adhikari S, Ivins E, Caron L, Morlighem M, Schlegel N. Slowdown in Antarctic mass loss from solid Earth and sea-level feedbacks. Science 2019; 364:science.aav7908. [PMID: 31023893 DOI: 10.1126/science.aav7908] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2018] [Accepted: 04/12/2019] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Geodetic investigations of crustal motions in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica and models of ice-sheet evolution in the past 10,000 years have recently highlighted the stabilizing role of solid-Earth uplift on polar ice sheets. One critical aspect, however, that has not been assessed is the impact of short-wavelength uplift generated by the solid-Earth response to unloading over short time scales close to ice-sheet grounding lines (areas where the ice becomes afloat). Here, we present a new global simulation of Antarctic evolution at high spatiotemporal resolution that captures all solid Earth processes that affect ice sheets and show a projected negative feedback in grounding line migration of 38% for Thwaites Glacier 350 years in the future, or 26.8% reduction in corresponding sea-level contribution.
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Affiliation(s)
- E Larour
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA. .,Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - H Seroussi
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - S Adhikari
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - E Ivins
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - L Caron
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - M Morlighem
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Croul Hall, Irvine, CA, USA
| | - N Schlegel
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
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Morlighem M, Williams CN, Rignot E, An L, Arndt JE, Bamber JL, Catania G, Chauché N, Dowdeswell JA, Dorschel B, Fenty I, Hogan K, Howat I, Hubbard A, Jakobsson M, Jordan TM, Kjeldsen KK, Millan R, Mayer L, Mouginot J, Noël BPY, O'Cofaigh C, Palmer S, Rysgaard S, Seroussi H, Siegert MJ, Slabon P, Straneo F, van den Broeke MR, Weinrebe W, Wood M, Zinglersen KB. BedMachine v3: Complete Bed Topography and Ocean Bathymetry Mapping of Greenland From Multibeam Echo Sounding Combined With Mass Conservation. Geophys Res Lett 2017; 44:11051-11061. [PMID: 29263561 PMCID: PMC5726375 DOI: 10.1002/2017gl074954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 85] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2017] [Revised: 09/08/2017] [Accepted: 09/11/2017] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Greenland's bed topography is a primary control on ice flow, grounding line migration, calving dynamics, and subglacial drainage. Moreover, fjord bathymetry regulates the penetration of warm Atlantic water (AW) that rapidly melts and undercuts Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers. Here we present a new compilation of Greenland bed topography that assimilates seafloor bathymetry and ice thickness data through a mass conservation approach. A new 150 m horizontal resolution bed topography/bathymetric map of Greenland is constructed with seamless transitions at the ice/ocean interface, yielding major improvements over previous data sets, particularly in the marine-terminating sectors of northwest and southeast Greenland. Our map reveals that the total sea level potential of the Greenland ice sheet is 7.42 ± 0.05 m, which is 7 cm greater than previous estimates. Furthermore, it explains recent calving front response of numerous outlet glaciers and reveals new pathways by which AW can access glaciers with marine-based basins, thereby highlighting sectors of Greenland that are most vulnerable to future oceanic forcing.
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Affiliation(s)
- M. Morlighem
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
| | - C. N. Williams
- Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
- Now at British Geological SurveyNottinghamUK
| | - E. Rignot
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - L. An
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
| | - J. E. Arndt
- Alfred‐Wegener‐Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchBremerhavenGermany
| | - J. L. Bamber
- Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - G. Catania
- Institute of GeophysicsUniversity of Texas at AustinAustinTXUSA
| | - N. Chauché
- Department of Geography and Earth ScienceAberystwyth UniversityAberystwythUK
| | - J. A. Dowdeswell
- Scott Polar Research InstituteUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
| | - B. Dorschel
- Alfred‐Wegener‐Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchBremerhavenGermany
| | - I. Fenty
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - K. Hogan
- British Antarctic SurveyNatural Environment Research CouncilCambridgeUK
| | - I. Howat
- Byrd Polar and Climate Research CenterOhio State UniversityColumbusOHUSA
| | - A. Hubbard
- Department of Geography and Earth ScienceAberystwyth UniversityAberystwythUK
- Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate, Department of GeosciencesUiT The Arctic University of NorwayTromsøNorway
| | - M. Jakobsson
- Department of Geology and GeochemistryStockholm UniversityStockholmSweden
| | - T. M. Jordan
- Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - K. K. Kjeldsen
- Centre for GeoGenetics, Natural History Museum of DenmarkUniversity of CopenhagenCopenhagenDenmark
- Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of OttawaOttawaOntarioCanada
- Department of Geodesy, DTU Space, National Space InstituteTechnical University of DenmarkKongens LyngbyDenmark
| | - R. Millan
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
| | - L. Mayer
- Center for Coastal and Ocean MappingUniversity of New HampshireDurhamNHUSA
| | - J. Mouginot
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
| | - B. P. Y. Noël
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research UtrechtUtrecht UniversityUtrechtNetherlands
| | - C. O'Cofaigh
- Department of GeographyDurham UniversityDurhamUK
| | - S. Palmer
- College of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of ExeterExeterUK
| | - S. Rysgaard
- Centre for Earth Observation Science, Department of Environment and GeographyUniversity of ManitobaWinnipegManitobaCanada
- Greenland Institute of Natural ResourcesNuukGreenland
- Arctic Research CentreAarhus UniversityAarhusDenmark
| | - H. Seroussi
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - M. J. Siegert
- Grantham Institute and Department of Earth Science and EngineeringImperial College LondonLondonUK
| | - P. Slabon
- Alfred‐Wegener‐Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchBremerhavenGermany
| | - F. Straneo
- Department of Physical OceanographyWoods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionWoods HoleMAUSA
| | - M. R. van den Broeke
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research UtrechtUtrecht UniversityUtrechtNetherlands
| | - W. Weinrebe
- Alfred‐Wegener‐Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchBremerhavenGermany
| | - M. Wood
- Department of Earth System ScienceUniversity of CaliforniaIrvineCAUSA
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Larour E, Schiermeier J, Rignot E, Seroussi H, Morlighem M, Paden J. Sensitivity Analysis of Pine Island Glacier ice flow using ISSM and DAKOTA. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jf002146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Larour E, Seroussi H, Morlighem M, Rignot E. Continental scale, high order, high spatial resolution, ice sheet modeling using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2011jf002140] [Citation(s) in RCA: 255] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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