The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Evolution of chain migration in an aerial insectivorous bird, the common swift Apus apus

Spectacular long-distance migration has evolved repeatedly in animals enabling exploration of resources separated in time and space. In birds, these patterns are largely driven by seasonality, cost of migration, and asymmetries in competition leading most often to leapfrog migration, where northern breeding populations winter furthest to the south. Here, we show that the highly aerial common swift Apus apus, spending the nonbreeding period on the wing, instead exhibits a rarely found chain migration pattern, where the most southern breeding populations in Europe migrate to wintering areas furthest to the south in Africa, whereas the northern populations winter to the north. The swifts concentrated in three major areas in sub-Saharan Africa during the nonbreeding period, with substantial overlap of nearby breeding populations. We found that the southern breeding swifts were larger, raised more young, and arrived to the wintering areas with higher seasonal variation in greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) earlier than the northern breeding swifts. This unusual chain migration pattern in common swifts is largely driven by differential annual timing and we suggest it evolves by prior occupancy and dominance by size in the breeding quarters and by prior occupancy combined with diffuse competition in the winter.

Predator-vole interactions in Northern Europe: the role of small mustelids revised

The cyclic population dynamics of vole and predator communities is a key phenomenon in northern ecosystems, and it appears to be influenced by climate change. Reports of collapsing rodent cycles have attributed the changes to warmer winters, which weaken the interaction between voles and their specialist subnivean predators. Using population data collected throughout Finland during 1986-2011, we analyse the spatio-temporal variation in the interactions between populations of voles and specialist, generalist and avian predators, and investigate by simulations the roles of the different predators in the vole cycle. We test the hypothesis that vole population cyclicity is dependent on predator-prey interactions during winter. Our results support the importance of the small mustelids for the vole cycle. However, weakening specialist predation during winters, or an increase in generalist predation, was not associated with the loss of cyclicity. Strengthening of delayed density dependence coincided with strengthening small mustelid influence on the summer population growth rates of voles. In conclusion, a strong impact of small mustelids during summers appears highly influential to vole population dynamics, and deteriorating winter conditions are not a viable explanation for collapsing small mammal population cycles.

Europe-wide dampening of population cycles in keystone herbivores

Suggestions of collapse in small herbivore cycles since the 1980s have raised concerns about the loss of essential ecosystem functions. Whether such phenomena are general and result from extrinsic environmental changes or from intrinsic process stochasticity is currently unknown. Using a large compilation of time series of vole abundances, we demonstrate consistent cycle amplitude dampening associated with a reduction in winter population growth, although regulatory processes responsible for cyclicity have not been lost. The underlying syndrome of change throughout Europe and grass-eating vole species suggests a common climatic driver. Increasing intervals of low-amplitude small herbivore population fluctuations are expected in the future, and these may have cascading impacts on trophic webs across ecosystems.

Nonlinear effects of climate on boreal rodent dynamics: mild winters do not negate high-amplitude cycles

Small rodents are key species in many ecosystems. In boreal and subarctic environments, their importance is heightened by pronounced multiannual population cycles. Alarmingly, the previously regular rodent cycles appear to be collapsing simultaneously in many areas. Climate change, particularly decreasing snow quality or quantity in winter, is hypothesized as a causal factor, but the evidence is contradictory. Reliable analysis of population dynamics and the influence of climate thereon necessitate spatially and temporally extensive data. We combined data on vole abundances and climate, collected at 33 locations throughout Finland from 1970 to 2011, to test the hypothesis that warming winters are causing a disappearance of multiannual vole cycles. We predicted that vole population dynamics exhibit geographic and temporal variation associated with variation in climate; reduced cyclicity should be observed when and where winter weather has become milder. We found that the temporal patterns in cyclicity varied between climatically different regions: a transient reduction in cycle amplitude in the coldest region, low-amplitude cycles or irregular dynamics in the climatically intermediate regions, and strengthening cyclicity in the warmest region. Our results did not support the hypothesis that mild winters are uniformly leading to irregular dynamics in boreal vole populations. Long and cold winters were neither a prerequisite for high-amplitude multiannual cycles, nor were mild winters with reduced snow cover associated with reduced winter growth rates. Population dynamics correlated more strongly with growing season than with winter conditions. Cyclicity was weakened by increasing growing season temperatures in the cold, but strengthened in the warm regions. High-amplitude multiannual vole cycles emerge in two climatic regimes: a winter-driven cycle in cold, and a summer-driven cycle in warm climates. Finally, we show that geographic climatic gradients alone may not reliably predict biological responses to climate change.

Selection on plasticity of seasonal life-history traits using random regression mixed model analysis

Theory considers the covariation of seasonal life-history traits as an optimal reaction norm, implying that deviating from this reaction norm reduces fitness. However, the estimation of reaction-norm properties (i.e., elevation, linear slope, and higher order slope terms) and the selection on these is statistically challenging. We here advocate the use of random regression mixed models to estimate reaction-norm properties and the use of bivariate random regression to estimate selection on these properties within a single model. We illustrate the approach by random regression mixed models on 1115 observations of clutch sizes and laying dates of 361 female Ural owl Strix uralensis collected over 31 years to show that (1) there is variation across individuals in the slope of their clutch size-laying date relationship, and that (2) there is selection on the slope of the reaction norm between these two traits. Hence, natural selection potentially drives the negative covariance in clutch size and laying date in this species. The random-regression approach is hampered by inability to estimate nonlinear selection, but avoids a number of disadvantages (stats-on-stats, connecting reaction-norm properties to fitness). The approach is of value in describing and studying selection on behavioral reaction norms (behavioral syndromes) or life-history reaction norms. The approach can also be extended to consider the genetic underpinning of reaction-norm properties.

Parental allocation of additional food to own health and offspring growth in a variable environment

Life-history theory predicts increased investment in current reproduction when future reproduction is uncertain and a more balanced investment in current and future reproduction when prospects for both are good. The outcome of the balance in parental allocation depends on which life-history component maximizes the fitness benefits. In our study system, a 3-year vole cycle generates good prospects of current and future reproduction for Ural owls ( Strix uralensis Pallas, 1771) in increase vole phases and uncertain prospects in decrease vole phases. We supplementary-fed Ural owls during the nestling period in 2002 (an increase phase) and 2003 (a decrease phase), and measured offspring growth, parental effort, and physiological health by monitoring haematocrit, leucocyte profiles, intra- and inter-celluar blood parasites, and (in 2003) humoral antibody responsiveness. Food supplementation reduced parental feeding rate in both years, but improved a female parent’s health only in 2002 (an increase phase) and had no effects on males in either year. Nevertheless, supplementary-fed offspring reached higher asymptotic mass and fledged earlier in both years. Furthermore, early fledging reduced offspring exposure to blood-sucking black flies (Diptera, Simuliidae) in the nest. We discuss how parental allocation of resources to current and future reproduction may vary under variable food conditions.

Senescence rates are determined by ranking on the fast-slow life-history continuum

Comparative analyses of survival senescence by using life tables have identified generalizations including the observation that mammals senesce faster than similar-sized birds. These generalizations have been challenged because of limitations of life-table approaches and the growing appreciation that senescence is more than an increasing probability of death. Without using life tables, we examine senescence rates in annual individual fitness using 20 individual-based data sets of terrestrial vertebrates with contrasting life histories and body size. We find that senescence is widespread in the wild and equally likely to occur in survival and reproduction. Additionally, mammals senesce faster than birds because they have a faster life history for a given body size. By allowing us to disentangle the effects of two major fitness components our methods allow an assessment of the robustness of the prevalent life-table approach. Focusing on one aspect of life history - survival or recruitment - can provide reliable information on overall senescence.

A possible link between parasite defence and residual reproduction

Life-history theory centres around trade-offs between current and future reproduction, but we have little understanding of how such trade-offs are mediated. We supplementary fed Ural owls (Strix uralensis) during the nestling period and quantified parents' current and future life-history components as well as their physiological health by monitoring haematocrit, leucocyte profile, intra- and extracellular blood parasites. Feeding led to reduced parental effort but did not improve offspring viability, male parasite defence, or parental survival. Intracellular leucocytozoan infection was reduced in fed females which lasted to the following year's reproductive season (carry-over effect), when fed females also laid larger and earlier clutches. Leucocytozoon infection therefore may mediate the life-history trade-off between current and residual reproduction in this species.

Supplementary fed Ural owls increase their reproductive output with a one year time lag

Life-history components may be food-limited. We supplemented food to 18 Ural owl, Strix uralensis, nests during the nestling period. Food supplementation led to a higher somatic condition in the female parent, but effects in males were moderate. Parents delivered less food to fed nests than to control nests. Offspring survival and fledging condition did not differ between control and fed nests. In the season following food supplementation, fed pairs bred 1 week earlier than control pairs and, coupled to this advance in laying date, fed pairs produced 0.6 eggs more than control pairs. This is the first evidence that food limitation in the current season may constrain next season's reproduction. Such carry-over effects of food-limitation may have important consequences for population dynamics.

Single-generation estimates of individual fitness as proxies for long-term genetic contribution

Individual fitness is a central evolutionary concept, but the question of how it should be defined in empirical studies of natural selection remains contentious. Using founding cohorts from long-term population studies of two species of individually marked birds (collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis and Ural owl Strix uralensis), we compared a rate-sensitive (lambdaind) and a rate-insensitive (lifetime reproductive success [LRS]) estimate of individual fitness with an estimate of long-term genetic fitness. The latter was calculated as the number of gene copies present in the population after more than two generations, as estimated by tracing genetic lineages and accounting for the fact that populations were not completely closed. When counting fledglings, rate-insensitive estimates of individual fitness correlated better than rate-sensitive estimates with estimated long-term genetic contribution. When counting recruits, both classes of estimates performed equally well. The results support the contention that simple, rate-insensitive measures of fitness, such as LRS, provide a valid and good estimate of fitness in evolutionary studies of natural populations.

Ural owl sex allocation and parental investment under poor food conditions

Parents are expected to overproduce the less costly sex under poor food conditions. The previously regular 3-year cycle in the abundance of voles, the main prey of the Ural owl, Strix uralensis, temporarily disappeared in 1999-2001. We studied Ural owls' parental feeding investment and sex allocation during these poor-quality years. We sexed hatchlings and embryos in unhatched eggs of all 131 broods produced during these years. Population wide, the owls produced significantly more males (56%). The parental food investment in the brood was estimated by sorting out the prey remains in the bottom of nest boxes. Food delivered to 83 broods without chick mortality showed no clear sex-specific investment. Nestling mortality was equal in both sexes. Thus, evidence for an investment-driven sex allocation is weak. Neither laying date, brood size nor the female's condition correlated with offspring sex ratios. In these poor years, parents provided less food per chick and the fledgling weight of daughters was reduced more than the weight of sons compared with years of high food abundance (1983 and 1986). We discuss, in relation to published studies, the possibility of a sex-allocation scenario where, under poor food conditions, a daughter's long-term fitness is reduced more than a son's.

Reproduction and Survival in a Variable Environment: Ural Owls (Strix Uralensis) and the Three-Year Vole Cycle

We analyzed data on 535 Ural Owl (Strix uralensis) breeding attempts and consecutive survival of both adults and offspring from 1987–1998 in relation to the regional abundance of the Ural Owl's main prey, voles, which show a cycle of low, increase, and peak phases in their population numbers. Vole abundance varied up to 49×, crashing during spring–summer every three years. The breeding population tracked abundance of voles in the previous autumn with respect to percentage of pairs breeding and their reproductive output (laying date, clutch size), largely irrespective of phase. Survival depended on vole density in the preceding autumn, but was generally highest in the increase phase. There was thus a paradoxical situation in the peak phases, when vole populations crashed; the owls produced large clutches, but those survived poorly. Some adaptive and nonadaptive scenarios of the Ural Owl's life history are discussed.

Cyclic variation in seasonal recruitment and the evolution of the seasonal decline in Ural owl clutch size

Plastic life-history traits can be viewed as adaptive responses to environmental conditions, described by a reaction norm. In birds, the decline in clutch size with advancing laying date has been viewed as a reaction norm in response to the parent's own (somatic or local environmental) condition and the seasonal decline in its offspring's reproductive value. Theory predicts that differences in the seasonal recruitment are mirrored in the seasonal decrease in clutch size. We tested this prediction in the Ural owl. The owl's main prey, voles, show a cycle of low, increase and peak phases. Recruitment probability had a humped distribution in both increase and peak phases. Average recruitment probability was two to three times higher in the increase phase and declined faster in the latter part of the season when compared with the peak phase. Clutch size decreased twice as steep in the peak (0.1 eggs day-1) as in the increase phase (0.05 eggs day-1). This result appears to refute theoretical predictions of seasonal clutch size declines. However, a re-examination of current theory shows that the predictions of modelling are less robust to details of seasonal condition accumulation in birds than originally thought. The observed pattern can be predicted, assuming specifically shaped seasonal increases in condition across individuals.

Reproductive Effort and Reproductive Values in Periodic Environments

Life-history theory concerns the optimal spread of reproduction over an organism's life span. In variable environments, there may be extrinsic differences between breeding periods within an organism's life, affecting both offspring and parent and giving rise to intergenerational trade-offs. Such trade-offs are often discussed in terms of reproductive value for parent and offspring. Here, we consider parental life-history optimization in response to varying offspring values of a population regulated by territoriality, where the quality of the environment varies periodically. Periods are interpreted as either within-year (seasonality) or between-years variation (cyclicity). The evolutionarily stable strategy in a general model with two-phased periodicity in the environment can generate either higher or lower effort in the more favorable of the two phases; hence knowing survival prospects of offspring does not suffice for predicting reproductive effort-the future of all descendants and the parent must be tracked. We also apply our method to data on the Ural owl Strix uralensis, a species preying on cyclically fluctuating voles. The observed dynamics are best predicted by assuming delayed reproductive costs and Type II functional response. Accounting for varying offspring values can lead to cases where both reproductive effort and recruitment of offspring are higher in the phase when voles are not maximally abundant, a pattern supported by our data.