Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Mandatory fortification of rice in the public distribution system in India: An ethics perspective

In response to the continuing high prevalence of anaemia recorded in the National Family Health Survey-5, the Indian government launched a policy for mandatory iron fortification of the rice provided through public nutrition programmes in India. This was done even though a rigorous evidence analysis had already concluded that rice fortification was not effective in preventing anaemia or iron deficiency at the population level. Fortification also poses a potential risk of iron toxicity over time, but there is no stated time period for the policy's implementation. The risk is particularly high in segments of the population who already have a high habitual iron intake, and who could be exposed to simultaneous fortification in different staples and food commodities along with the ongoing weekly Iron and Folic Acid tablets supplementation programme. Finally, this fortification policy also requires significant additional funding and resources to implement. It is crucial to examine such mandatory health actions, and to weigh the benefits and risks of harm, using the principles of public health ethics.

Bioavailability and daily requirement of vitamin B12 in adult humans: an observational study of its colonic absorption and daily excretion as measured by [13C]-cyanocobalamin kinetics

BACKGROUND

Clinical and biochemical vitamin B12 (B12) deficiency is lower than anticipated in vegetarians. Extraileal absorption, such as from the colon, as well as reduced daily excretion, may be adaptive mechanisms to maintain B12 homeostasis with marginal intakes.

OBJECTIVE

To measure the absorption of B12 from the small and large intestine, and its daily rate of excretion from the body, using a [13C]-cyanocobalamin tracer.

METHODS

Oral B12 bioavailability was measured over 12 h after administration of [13C]-cyanocobalamin tracer (2.5 μg) in normal participants. The colonic B12 bioavailability was evaluated by direct instillation of [13C]-cyanocobalamin (5 μg) into the ascending colon. Bioavailability was calculated from 2-compartmental modeling of the tracer appearance in plasma. The excretion rate of B12 was measured from [13C]-cyanocobalamin elimination from the body over 4 wk after oral dosing (5 μg).

RESULTS

The oral B12 bioavailability (n = 11) was 63% ± 10% measured over 12 h. A late absorption peak, accounting for 12% of the absorption, was observed after an average lag time of 8.7 h from dosing. The colonic B12 bioavailability (n = 10) was 7% ± 5% over 4 h. The daily B12 excretion rate (n = 4) was 0.7 ± 0.2 μg/d. The minimum daily requirement of B12 in these participants was derived at 1 μg /d.

CONCLUSIONS

B12 is absorbed in the human colon. This observation confirms the potential contribution of the colon in daily B12 nutriture, and along with a possible lower requirement, could explain the absence of clinical deficiency in populations with marginal B12 intakes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

This study was registered in Clinical Trials Registry of India (CTRI) with the registration number CTRI/2018/04/012957, available from https://ctri.nic.in/Clinicaltrials/showallp.php?mid1=49319&EncHid=&userName=029108.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Haemoglobin diagnostic cut-offs for anaemia in Indian women of reproductive age

BACKGROUND

The persistent high prevalence of anaemia among Indian women of reproductive age (WRA) despite aggressive long-term iron supplementation could be related to over-diagnosis from an inappropriately high haemoglobin (Hb) diagnostic cut-off. To develop an appropriate cut-off for Indian WRA, we hypothesized that during iron-folic acid (IFA) supplementation to a mixed (anaemic/non-anaemic) WRA population, the positive slope of the Hb-plasma ferritin (PF) response in anaemic women would inflect into a plateau (zero-response) as a non-anaemic status is reached. The 2.5th percentile of the Hb distribution at this inflection point will be the diagnostic Hb cut-off for iron-responsive anaemia.

METHOD

A hierarchical mixed effects model, with a polynomial mean and variance model to account for intraclass correlation due to repeated measures, was used to estimate the response curve of Hb to PF, or body iron stores, in anaemic and non-anaemic WRA (without inflammation), who were receiving a 90-day IFA supplementation.

RESULTS

The Hb response curve at low PF values showed a steep increase, which inflected into a plateau at a PF of 10.1 µg/L and attained a steady state at a PF of 20.6 µg/L. The Hb distribution at the inflection was a normal probability distribution, with a mean of 12.3 g/dL. The 2.5th percentile value of this distribution, or the putative diagnostic Hb cut-off for anaemia, was 10.8 g/dL (~11 g/dL).

CONCLUSION

The derived Hb cut-off is lower than the current adult values of 12 g/dL and could partly explain the persistently high prevalence of anaemia.

Growth in Infancy and Childhood and Age at Menarche in Five Low- or Middle-Income Countries: Consortium of Health Orientated Research in Transitional Societies (COHORTS)

BACKGROUND

Earlier age at menarche is associated with behavioral and noncommunicable disease risks. The influence of birth weight (BW) (intrauterine) and postnatal growth on age at menarche is not well studied in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

OBJECTIVE

Therefore, we investigated these associations in 5 LMIC birth cohorts.

METHODS

We analyzed data from Brazil, Guatemala, India, the Philippines, and South Africa (n = 3983). We derived stunting (< -2 SD scores) at 24 mo using the WHO child growth standards. We generated interaction terms with categorized BW and conditional weight (lighter < 0 or heavier ≥ 0), and height (shorter < 0 or taller ≥ 0) z-scores. We categorized early-, modal-, and late-onset menarche and used multilevel ordinal regression. We used multilevel linear regression on continuous age at menarche.

RESULTS

Mean age at menarche was 12.8 y (95% CI: 12.7 12.9). BW was not associated with age at menarche. Conditional height at 24 mo and mid-childhood (OR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.27, 1.44 and 1.32; 1.25, 1.41, respectively) and conditional weight at 24 mo and mid-childhood (OR: 1.15; 1.08, 1.22 and 1.18; 1.11, 1.25, respectively) were associated with increased likelihood of early-onset menarche. Being heavier at birth and taller at 24 mo was associated with a 4-mo (95% CI: 0.8, 7.6) earlier age at menarche than being lighter at birth and shorter at 24 mo. Being heavier at birth but lighter in mid-childhood was associated with a 3-mo (95% CI: 0.8, 4.8) later age at menarche than being lighter at birth and mid-childhood. Age at menarche was 7 mo later in stunted than nonstunted girls.

CONCLUSION

Age at menarche is inversely related to relative weight gain but also to rapid linear growth among those born shorter but remained stunted, and those born taller and grew excessively. These findings do not deter the global health goal to reduce growth faltering but emphasize the potential adverse effects of an obesogenic environment on adolescent development.

The Need for Food Fortification With Zinc in India: Is There Evidence for This?

There has been recent advocacy for food fortification with zinc in India. However, there are three important conditions that should be established before fortifying food with any micronutrient, which requires that there should be i) Established high prevalence of biochemical or sub-clinical deficiency (≥20%), ii) Low dietary intakes that increase the risk of deficiency, and iii) Evidence of efficacy of supplementation from clinical trials. For zinc, all three conditions are not satisfied. The prevalence of low serum zinc concentrations in Indian children is well below 20% (~6%), signifying that zinc deficiency is not a public health problem. There is no risk of dietary zinc inadequacy in Indian populations where intake has been measured. Finally, there is no robust evidence that zinc-fortified foods improve functional outcomes, even if the serum zinc concentration is increased. Thus, contemporary evidence does not justify the need for food fortification with zinc in India.

Prevalence of Vitamin B12 and Folate Deficiencies in Indian Children and Adolescents

Deficiencies of vitamin B₁₂ (B₁₂) and folate (FA) are of particular interest due to their pleiotropic role in 1-carbon metabolism. In addition to adverse birth outcomes, deficiencies of B₁₂ and FA, or an imbalance in FA/B₁₂ status, are linked to metabolic disorders. Indian diets that are predominantly plant food-based could be deficient in these vitamins, but there are no national estimates of the prevalence of B₁₂ and FA deficiency in Indian children and adolescents, nor their associations with age, sex and growth indicators. The recent Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey (CNNS-2016-18) provided estimates of the prevalence of B₁₂ and FA deficiency at the national and state levels among preschool (1-4 years: 9976 and 11,004 children, respectively), school-age children (5-9 years: 12,156 and 14,125) and adolescents (10-19 years: 11,748 and 13,621). Serum B₁₂ and erythrocyte FA were measured by the direct chemiluminescence method and their deficiency was defined using WHO cut-offs. The prevalence of B₁₂ and FA deficiency was high among adolescents (31.0%, CI: 28.7-33.5 and 35.6%, CI: 33.1-8.2) compared to school-age (17.3%, CI: 15.4-19.3 and 27.6%, CI: 25.5-29.9) and preschool children (13.8%, CI: 11.7-16.2 and 22.8%, CI: 20.5-25.2, respectively). The prevalence of both B₁₂ and FA deficiency was significantly higher by 8% and 5%, respectively, in adolescent boys compared to girls. There was no association between anthropometric undernutrition and B₁₂ and FA deficiency. There was wide regional variation in the prevalence of B₁₂ and FA deficiency, but no rural-urban differences were observed across all age groups. The national prevalence of B₁₂ deficiency among preschool or school-age children was <20% (the cut-off that indicates a public health problem). However, FA deficiency in these age groups and both FA and B₁₂ deficiencies in adolescents were >20%, warranting further investigation.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

Is iron status associated with markers of non-communicable disease in adolescent Indian children?

BACKGROUND

High body iron status has been associated with non-communicable diseases (NCD) like diabetes (high fasting blood glucose, FBG), hypertension (HTN) or dyslipidaemia (high total cholesterol, TC) in adults, but this has not been examined in adolescent children. This is relevant to iron supplementation and food iron fortification programs that are directed at Indian children.

METHODS

The association of NCD with Serum Ferritin (SF) was examined using logistic additive models, adjusted for confounders such as age, body mass index, C-Reactive Protein, haemoglobin and sex, in adolescent (10-19 years old) participants of the Indian Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey. The interaction of these associations with wealth and co-existing prediabetes was also examined. A scenario analysis was also done to understand the impact of iron fortification of cereals on the prevalence NCD among adolescents.

RESULTS

The odds ratio (OR) of high FBG, HTN and TC were 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01-1.08), 1.02 (95% CI: 1.001-1.03) and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01-1.06) respectively for every 10 µg/L increase in SF. The odds for high TC increased with co-existing prediabetes. The scenario analysis showed that providing 10 mg of iron/day by fortification could increase the prevalence of high FBG by 2-14% across states of India. Similar increments in HTN and TC can also be expected.

CONCLUSIONS

High SF is significantly associated with NCD in adolescents, dependent on wealth and co-existing prediabetes. This should be considered when enhancing iron intake in anaemia prevention programs, and the NCD relationship with body iron stores should be studied.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome among adolescents in India: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

In India, the prevalence of overweight among adolescents is on the rise, setting the stage for an increase in metabolic syndrome (MS). This paper presents the national prevalence of MS in adolescents in India.

METHODS

A nationally representative data of adolescents (10-19 years) from the Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey was used. MS was defined based on the NCEP-ATP III criteria for adolescents. Bivariate analysis was used to report socio-demographic differentials in prevalence and to assess interstate variability. Multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to measure the association between socio-demographic characteristics and prevalence of MS. Census data from 2011 was projected to 2017 to calculate burden.

RESULTS

The prevalence of MS was 5.2% among adolescents. 11.9%, 15.4%, 26.0%, 31.9% and 3.7% had central obesity, high blood pressure, hypertriglyceridemia, low HDL-cholesterol and high fasting glucose, respectively. The prevalence was higher among males (5.7% vs. 4.7%, adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.3, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0, 1.6), those residing in urban areas (7.9% vs 4.2%, AOR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1, 1.8), and from wealthier households as compared to their counterparts (8.3% vs. 2.4%, AOR: 3.4, 95% CI: 2.1, 5.5). There was wide interstate variability in the prevalence of MS (0.5% - 16.5%). In 2017, 14.2 million adolescents had MS in India.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of MS among adolescents in India is low and clustered in urban areas and richer households. Early prevention interventions promoting a healthy lifestyle, especially in high prevalence areas, are needed to keep MS from becoming a public health issue.

Prevalence of and Factors Associated With High Blood Pressure Among Adolescents in India

IMPORTANCE

High blood pressure (BP) in children and adolescents is becoming one of the most common health conditions worldwide and is much more widely prevalent than previously thought.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of high BP in adolescents in India and identify associated factors.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study is a secondary analysis of data from the Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey (CNNS, 2016-2018), which used a multistage, stratified, probability proportion to size cluster sampling design to enroll a nationally representative sample of households and individuals aged 10 to 19 years across all states and union territories of India. Adolescents with acute or chronic illness, physical deformity, mental illness, or cognitive disability were excluded from the survey. Because BP was measured only in children between 10 and 19 years of age, only data from children within this age group were included for secondary analyses. Data analysis was performed from March 2021 to April 2022.

EXPOSURES

Anthropometry.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

On the basis of the 2017 American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines, high BP was defined as stage 1 and 2 hypertension, with BP above the 95th percentile in children younger than 13 years and greater than 130/80 mm Hg in children 13 years or older. The association of age, sex, region, socioeconomic status, body mass index, fasting blood glucose, hemoglobin A1c, and lipid profile with high BP were examined using log binomial regression.

RESULTS

Among 16 182 eligible children aged 10 to 19 years (mean [SD] age, 14.2 [2.8] years; 7849 [48.5%] female and 8333 [51.5%] male), 11 718 had valid BP data with 3 repeated readings. the prevalence of high BP was 35.1% (95% CI, 31.5%-38.9%) in children aged 10 to 12 years and 25.1% (95% CI, 22.5%-28.0%) in children 13 years or older. Overweight and obesity were associated with a higher risk of high BP in both younger (prevalence ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.04-1.34) and older children (prevalence ratio, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.18-1.49). The prevalence of high BP in younger children with stunting was high at 40.1% (95% CI, 31.9%-48.9%) and was 21.9% (95% CI, 18.2%-26.1%) among older children with stunting. In both age groups, high BP coexisted with other cardiovascular disease risk factors, such that adolescents with high fasting blood glucose, high hemoglobin A1c, high triglyceride, and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels had a higher risk of high BP.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, the prevalence of high BP, along with cardiovascular risk factors, was substantial in Indian adolescents. There is a need to screen and identify adolescents who have high BP and initiate interventions to control the burden of hypertension and its consequences in India.

A risk-based approach to measuring population micronutrient status from blood biomarker concentrations

Background

Nutrient biomarkers and their definitive cut-offs are used to classify individuals as nutrient-deficient or sufficient. This determinism does not consider any uncertainty, and a probability approach, using biomarker distributions, is then preferable to define the risk of nutrition deficiency when in populations.

Method

Healthy 1–19-year-old children and adolescents were selected from the Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey (CNNS), to obtain probability distributions of their retinol, zinc and vitamin B₁₂, along with erythrocyte folate. Model-based estimates of location, scale and shape parameters of these distributions were obtained across ages. Subsequently, in the entire sample of 1–19 year old children of CNNS, the population risk of deficiency (PRD) which is average risk of deficiency in individuals in the population was computed, which is “of concern” when >50%. When individual risk of deficiency is >97.5% it is called “severe risk of deficiency” (SRD).

Results

In the entire CNNS sample, the PRD of concern was low for serum retinol (3.6–8.2%), zinc (0–5.5%), and SRD of vitamin B₁₂ and erythrocyte folate were 2.3–7.2% and 4.2–9.7%, respectively, across age and sex groups.

Conclusion

This proposed method assesses the adequacy of nutrient exposures without relying on pre-defined deterministic biomarker cut-offs to define micronutrient deficiency and avoids errors in exposure assessment.

A proposed method for defining the required fortification level of micronutrients in foods: An example using iron

In 2006, the WHO published a framework for calculating the desired level of fortification of any micronutrient in any staple food vehicle, to reduce micronutrient malnutrition. This framework set the target median nutrient intake, of the population consuming the fortified food, at the 97.5th percentile of their nutrient requirement distribution; the Probability of Inadequacy (PIA) of the nutrient would then be 2.5%. We argue here that the targeted median nutrient intake should be at Estimated Average Requirement (50^th percentile), since the intake distribution will then overlap the requirement distribution in a population that is in homeostasis, resulting in a PIA of 50%. It is also important to recognize that setting the target PIA at 2.5% may put a sizable proportion at risk of adverse consequences associated with exceeding the tolerable upper limit (TUL) of intake. This is a critical departure from the WHO framework. For a population with different age- and sex-groups, the pragmatic way to fix the fortification level for a staple food vehicle is by achieving a target PIA of 50% in the most deprived age- or sex-group of that population, subject to the condition that only a very small proportion of intakes exceed the TUL. The methods described here will aid precision in public health nutrition, to pragmatically determine the precise fortification level of a nutrient in a food vehicle, while balancing risks of inadequacy and excess intake.

Reference cut-offs to define low serum zinc concentrations in healthy 1-19 year old Indian children and adolescents

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Population zinc (Zn) status assessment is based on serum zinc concentration (SZC) cut-offs defined by the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group (IZiNCG). The objective of this study is to derive reference SZC cut-offs in apparently healthy 1-19 year Indian children and adolescents using comprehensive national nutrition survey (CNNS) data, and to measure the prevalence of Zn deficiency.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Apparently healthy children (n = 12,473) were selected from the CNNS, by including the highest 2 wealth quintiles, and excluding stunted, thin and obese children, and those with CRP > 5 mg/L, anaemia, hypo-albuminemia, diabetes, recent diarrhoea and history of smoking. The 2.5th centile of age-based distributions defined the SZC cut-offs, used to measure the prevalence of Zn deficiency in India, as against the IZiNCG cut-offs.

RESULTS

The present study SZC cut-offs were significantly lower, by 10-18 µg/dL, than the IZiNCG cut-offs; more in adolescents. Prevalence of Zn deficiency in the entire CNNS, with these cut-offs, was 2.7 (<10 years) to 5.5 (10-19 years) times lower than with the IZiNCG cut-offs. No geographical state, nor any age group, had Zn deficiency as a serious public health problem (≥20%). In contrast, with IZiNCG cut-offs, 9-27 states (depending on age group) had a public health problem.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study reference SZC cut-offs for Zn deficiency are lower than the IZiNCG cut-offs, and their rigorous selection from a national sample makes them more appropriate for use in India. A re-examination of the global applicability of IZiNCG recommended cut-offs in other LMICs appears appropriate.

There should always be a free lunch: the impact of COVID-19 lockdown suspension of the mid-day meal on nutriture of primary school children in Karnataka, India

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in 2020 resulted in school closures with eventual suspension of the mid-day meal programme, biannual deworming and iron-folic acid supplements. One year into the lockdown, we evaluated the impact of the withdrawal of these programmes on the nutritional status of rural primary-school children, aged 6-12 years, in Karnataka, India.

Methods

Anthropometry, haemoglobin, serum ferritin and C reactive protein were measured in 290 children at two time points, 1 year apart, starting from just before the lockdown (February 2020 to February 2021).

Results

The prevalence of anaemia doubled from 21% to 40% (p<0.0001) with more pronounced changes in older girls (10%-53%); however, the prevalence of iron deficiency did not change (48.8%-51.9%), despite cessation of deworming and iron/folic acid supplements.

Conclusion

The increase in anaemia was due to limiting intakes of other erythropoietic nutrients, possibly due to a lower dietary diversity. The mid-day lunch meal at school (MDM) is an important part of daily food intake in rural school children, and it is important to maintain dietary diversity through the delivery of MDM for such vulnerable groups.

Effects of early-life poverty on health and human capital in children and adolescents: analyses of national surveys and birth cohort studies in LMICs

The survival and nutrition of children and, to a lesser extent, adolescents have improved substantially in the past two decades. Improvements have been linked to the delivery of effective biomedical, behavioural, and environmental interventions; however, large disparities exist between and within countries. Using data from 95 national surveys in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), we analyse how strongly the health, nutrition, and cognitive development of children and adolescents are related to early-life poverty. Additionally, using data from six large, long-running birth cohorts in LMICs, we show how early-life poverty can have a lasting effect on health and human capital throughout the life course. We emphasise the importance of implementing multisectoral anti-poverty policies and programmes to complement specific health and nutrition interventions delivered at an individual level, particularly at a time when COVID-19 continues to disrupt economic, health, and educational gains achieved in the recent past.

Association of Vitamin A Status With Under-Five Mortality in India

OBJECTIVE

To re-estimate the survival benefit from Vitamin A supplementation (VAS) in India using meta-analysis and to correlate mortality and vitamin A deficiency (VAD) in children aged 6 month to 5 year.

METHODS

Pooled risk ratio (fixed effects model) for mortality reduction with VAS was calculated from available Indian studies. Computed mortality rates in 6 months to 5 years children in Indian states were regressed on VAD prevalence estimates of the states.

RESULTS

There was no reduction in risk of all-cause mortality with VAS (RR=0.96; 95% CI: 0.89, 1.03). When regressing mortality on VAD in high or low VAD prevalence states, the regression coefficients were discordant.

CONCLUSION

No survival benefit was observed for VAS in India from the available literature. The targeting of VAS programs should be given serious consideration.

Global hunger index does not really measure hunger - An Indian perspective

The Global Hunger Index (GHI) is calculated and disseminated annually. India, which is the 5^th largest economy in the world and has a good ranking in many other indicators, has a poor ranking based on this index. After a critical review of the appropriateness of the indicators used in GHI, the Indian Council of Medical Research has the viewpoint that the indicators of undernourishment, stunting, wasting and child mortality do not measure hunger per se. Referring to this index as a Hunger Index, and thereby ranking countries is not appropriate, since many of the measures that are used to evolve an index that measures hunger are probably contextual. Countries should therefore evolve their own measures that are suitable for their own context.

Perspective: When the cure might become the malady: the layering of multiple interventions with mandatory micronutrient fortification of foods in India

When public health programs with single nutrients are perceived to have a poor impact on the target health outcome, the policy response can be to supply more, by layering additional mandatory programs upon the extant programs. However, we argue for extreme caution, because nutrients (like medicines) are beneficial in the right dose, but potentially harmful when ingested in excess. Unnecessary motivations for the reactionary layering of multiple intervention programs emerge from incorrect measurements of the risk of nutrient inadequacy in the population, or incorrect biomarker cutoffs to evaluate the extent of nutrient deficiencies. The financial and social costs of additional layered programs are not trivial when traded off with other vital programs in a resource-poor economy, and when public health ethical dilemmas of autonomy, equity, and stigma are not addressed. An example of this conundrum in India is the perception of stagnancy in the response of the prevalence of anemia to the ongoing pharmacological iron supplementation program. The reaction has been a policy proposal to further increase iron intake through mandatory iron fortification of the rice provided in supplementary feeding programs like the Integrated Child Development Services and the School Mid-Day Meal. This is in addition to the ongoing pharmacological iron supplementation as well as other voluntary iron fortifications, such as those of salt and manufactured food products. However, before supplying more, it is vital to consider why the existing program is apparently not working, along with consideration of the potential for excess intake and related harms. This is relevant globally, particularly for countries contemplating multiple interventions to address micronutrient deficiencies. Supplying more by layering multiple nutrient interventions, instead of doing it right, without thoughtful considerations of social, biological, and ethics frameworks could be counterproductive. The cure, then, might well become the malady.

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

BACKGROUND

Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.

FINDINGS

The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings.

FUNDING

WHO.

Prevalence of low serum zinc concentrations in Indian children and adolescents: findings from the Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey 2016-18

BACKGROUND

It is thought that there is a high risk of zinc deficiency in India, but there are no representative national estimates.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to evaluate the national and state-level prevalence of low serum zinc concentrations (SZCs) in Indian children from the nationally representative Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey.

METHODS

Prevalence of low SZC, adjusted for C-reactive protein, was estimated among preschool (1-4 y; n = 7874) and school-age children (5-9 y; n = 10,430) and adolescents (10-19 y; n = 10,140), using SZC cutoffs defined by the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group.

RESULTS

Prevalence of low SZC was high among adolescents (31.1%; 95% CI: 29.8%, 32.4%), compared with school-age (15.8%; 95% CI: 15.3%, 16.3%) or preschool children (17.4%; 95% CI: 16.7%, 18.0%). However, stratification of prevalence by fasting status or using an alternative lower SZC cutoff independent of fasting status led to a reduction in prevalence by 3.7% or 7.8% in children <10 y, respectively. The prevalence of low SZC was higher among rural preschool children, those belonging to households with poor socioeconomic status, and those with severe stunting or underweight. Preschool children with diarrhea (22.6%; 95% CI: 20.8%, 24.4%), productive cough (22.7%; 95% CI: 18.5%, 27.5%), or malaria/dengue (38.5%; 95% CI: 29.4%, 48.2%) in the 2 wk preceding the survey had a higher prevalence of low SZC than those without morbidity (16.5%; 95% CI: 15.9%, 17.2%; 17.6%; 95% CI: 16.9%, 18.2%; and 17.5%; 95% CI: 16.8%, 18.1%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The national prevalence of low SZC among preschool (17%) or school-age children (16%) was <20%, which is considered the cutoff indicating a problem of public health significance; but there were variations by state and socioeconomic status. In adolescents, however, the prevalence of low SZC was 31%, which warrants further investigation. The association of low SZC with diarrhea in preschool children necessitates better coverage of Zn administration in the management of diarrhea.

Vitamin A deficiency among children younger than 5 y in India: an analysis of national data sets to reflect on the need for vitamin A supplementation

BACKGROUND

Biochemical vitamin A deficiency (VAD) is believed to be a serious public health problem (low serum retinol prevalence >20%) in Indian children, justifying universal high-dose vitamin A supplementation (VAS).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate in Indian children younger than 5 y the risk of biochemical VAD from the Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey, as well as dietary vitamin A inadequacy and excess over the tolerable upper limit of intake (TUL) from national and subnational surveys, factoring in fortification and VAS.

METHODS

Child serum retinol data, corrected for inflammation, were examined to evaluate national- and state-level prevalence of VAD. Simultaneously, dietary intakes from the National Sample Survey Office and the National Nutrition Monitoring Bureau were examined for risk of dietary vitamin A deficiency against its average requirement (AR) derived for Indian children. Theoretical estimates of risk reduction with oil and milk vitamin A fortification were evaluated along with the risk of exceeding the TUL, as well as when combined with intake from VAS.

RESULTS

The national prevalence of biochemical VAD measured in 9563 children was 15.7% (95% CI: 15.2%, 16.3%), and only 3 states had prevalence significantly >20%. The AR of vitamin A was 198 and 191 µg/d for boys and girls; the risk of dietary inadequacy was ∼70%, which reduced to 25% with oil and milk fortification. Then, the risk of exceeding the TUL was 2% and 1% in 1- to 3-y-old and 4- to 5-y-old children, respectively, but when the VAS dose was added to this intake in a cumulative 6-mo framework, the risk of exceeding the TUL rose to 30% and 8%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The national prevalence of VAD risk is below 20% in Indian children. Because there is risk of excess intake with food fortification and VAS, serious consideration should be given to a targeted approach in place of the universal VAS program in India.

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.

Inflammation correction in micronutrient deficiency with censored inflammatory biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Biomarkers of micronutrient status vary with inflammation, and can be corrected by a regression-based approach [Biomarkers Reflecting Inflammation and Nutritional Determinants of Anemia (BRINDA)] using measured concentrations of inflammation biomarkers, e.g., C-reactive protein (CRP) and/or α1-acid-glycoprotein (AGP). However, this is confounded when inflammation is measured with multiple assays with variable limits of detection (LOD) and lower limits of quantification (LLOQ).

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop a probability approach for the estimation of prevalence of micronutrient deficiency using the distribution of true serum/plasma micronutrient concentrations in the population.

METHODS

Left-censoring of an inflammation biomarker due to varying values of LOD or LLOQ was addressed by estimating the distribution of the inflammation biomarker at concentrations lower than the LOD and using this for the probability estimation of prevalence of nutrient deficiency. This method was evaluated using 2 publicly available data sets for children <5 y old: BRINDA and the Indian Comprehensive National Nutrition Survey. Each data set included measures of serum ferritin (SF), vitamin A, zinc, and CRP measured using different assays with variable LLOQs.

RESULTS

The empirical distribution of SF after correction for CRP and AGP by the BRINDA method was comparable with the estimated probability distribution of SF, yielding similar estimates of iron deficiency prevalence when evaluated in the BRINDA data (17.4%; 95% CI: 15.2%, 19.7% compared with 16.8%; 95% CI: 13.9%, 20.0%; BRINDA compared with the probability method). The BRINDA method-adjusted iron deficiency prevalence was linearly associated with the proportion of left-censored CRP data, whereas these were not associated in the probability method. In the Indian survey data, estimates of prevalence of iron and zinc deficiency were comparable but vitamin A deficiency was lower by the probability method (17.6%; 95% CI: 16.7%, 20.2% compared with 15.7%; 95% CI: 15.2%, 16.3%; BRINDA compared with the probability method).

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed probability method is a robust alternate approach to the estimation of the prevalence of nutrient deficiency with left-censored inflammation biomarker data.

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

BACKGROUND

Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

METHODS

For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.

FINDINGS

We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

INTERPRETATION

The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

An uncertainty estimate of the prevalence of stunting in national surveys: the need for better precision

Background

Stunting is determined by using the World Health Organization (WHO) child growth standard which was developed using precise measurements. However, it is unlikely that large scale surveys maintain the same level of rigour and precision when measuring the height of children. The population measure of stunting in children is sensitive to over-dispersion, and the high prevalence of stunting observed in surveys in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) could partly be due to lower measurement precison.

Objectives

To quantify the incongruence in the dispersion of height-for-age in national surveys of < 5 y children, in relation to the standard WHO Multicenter Growth Reference Study (MGRS), and propose a measure of uncertainty in population measures of stunting.

Methods

An uncertainty factor was proposed and measured from the observed incongruence in dispersion of the height-for-age of < 5 y children in the MGRS against carefully matched populations from the Demographic Health Survey of 17 countries (‘test datasets’, based on the availability of data). This also allowed for the determination of uncertainty-corrected prevalence of stunting (height-for-age Z score < − 2) in < 5 y children.

Results

The uncertainty factor was estimated for 17 LMICs. This ranged from 0.9 to 2.1 for Peru and Egypt respectively (reference value 1). As an explicit country example, the dispersion of height-for-age in the Indian National Family Health Survey-4 test dataset was 39% higher than the MGRS study, with an uncertainty factor of 1.39. From this, the uncertainty-adjusted Indian national stunting prevalence estimate reduced to 18.7% from the unadjusted estimate of 36.2%.

Conclusions

This study proposes a robust statistical method to estimate uncertainty in stunting prevalence estimates due to incongruent dispersions of height measured in national surveys for children < 5 years in relation to the WHO height-for-age standard. The uncertainty is partly due to population heterogeneity, but also due to measurement precision, and calls for better quality in these measurements.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-020-09753-8.

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Mortality and recovery following moderate and severe acute malnutrition in children aged 6-18 months in rural Jharkhand and Odisha, eastern India: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Recent data suggest that case fatality from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in India may be lower than the 10%-20% estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO). A contemporary quantification of mortality and recovery from acute malnutrition in Indian community settings is essential to inform policy regarding the benefits of scaling up prevention and treatment programmes.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a cohort study using data collected during a recently completed cluster-randomised controlled trial in 120 geographical clusters with a total population of 121,531 in rural Jharkhand and Odisha, eastern India. Children born between October 1, 2013, and February 10, 2015, and alive at 6 months of age were followed up at 9, 12, and 18 months. We measured the children's anthropometry and asked caregivers whether children had been referred to services for malnutrition in the past 3 months. We determined the incidence and prevalence of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) and SAM, as well as mortality and recovery at each follow-up. We then used Cox-proportional models to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for MAM and SAM. In total, 2,869 children were eligible for follow-up at 6 months of age. We knew the vital status of 93% of children (2,669/2,869) at 18 months. There were 2,704 children-years of follow-up time. The incidence of MAM by weight-for-length z score (WLZ) and/or mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) was 406 (1,098/2,704) per 1,000 children-years. The incidence of SAM by WLZ, MUAC, or oedema was 190 (513/2,704) per 1,000 children-years. There were 36 deaths: 12 among children with MAM and six among children with SAM. Case fatality rates were 1.1% (12/1,098) for MAM and 1.2% (6/513) for SAM. In total, 99% of all children with SAM at 6 months of age (227/230) were alive 3 months later, 40% (92/230) were still SAM, and 18% (41/230) had recovered (WLZ ≥ -2 standard deviation [SD]; MUAC ≥ 12.5; no oedema). The adjusted HRs using all anthropometric indicators were 1.43 (95% CI 0.53-3.87, p = 0.480) for MAM and 2.56 (95% CI 0.99-6.70, p = 0.052) for SAM. Both WLZ < -3 and MUAC ≥ 11.5 and < 12.5 were associated with increased mortality risk (HR: 3.33, 95% CI 1.23-8.99, p = 0.018 and HR: 3.87, 95% CI 1.63-9.18, p = 0.002, respectively). A key limitation of our analysis was missing WLZ or MUAC data at all time points for 2.5% of children, including for two of the 36 children who died.

CONCLUSIONS

In rural eastern India, the incidence of acute malnutrition among children older than 6 months was high, but case fatality following SAM was 1.2%, much lower than the 10%-20% estimated by WHO. Case fatality rates below 6% have now been recorded in three other Indian studies. Community treatment using ready-to-use therapeutic food may not avert a substantial number of SAM-related deaths in children aged over 6 months, as mortality in this group is lower than expected. Our findings strengthen the case for prioritising prevention through known health, nutrition, and multisectoral interventions in the first 1,000 days of life, while ensuring access to treatment when prevention fails.

Steady Growth in Early Infancy Is Associated with Greater Anthropometry in Indian Children Born Low Birth Weight at Term

BACKGROUND

Patterns of early growth are associated with later body composition and risk of adult noncommunicable disease but information from low-income countries is limited.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate early growth trajectories and later anthropometric and bone density outcomes among children born term low birth weight (LBW: 1.8-2.5 kg).

METHODS

We used data from 902 children from the Delhi Infant Vitamin D Supplementation study of LBW term infants (which collected monthly anthropometry from birth to 6 mo) and who had height, weight, midupper arm circumference (MUAC), midupper arm muscle circumference (MUAMC), subscapular and triceps skinfold thicknesses, tibia and radius bone density measured at age 4-6 y. We investigated how growth in the first 6 mo of life, modeled using the SuperImposition by Translation and Rotation (SITAR) growth curve model, was related to these outcomes. SITAR summarizes each infant's weight and length trajectory in terms of a population mean curve and child-specific growth parameters: size, timing, and intensity. These were included as explanatory variables in linear regression models for the childhood outcomes.

RESULTS

Considering the infant weight and length SITAR parameters jointly, childhood weight was strongly associated with infant length timing [estimated regression coefficient β = 0.25 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.39)] and with weight size, timing, and intensity [β = 9.01 (6.75, 11.27), β = -0.25 (-0.43, -0.07), β = 5.03 (3.22, 6.84), respectively]. Childhood height was associated only with the length parameters [β = 0.97 (0.71, 1.23), β = -0.43 (-0.77, -0.09), β = 11.68 (8.60, 14.75), respectively]; childhood MUAC, MUAMC, and skinfolds with all parameters; and bone density with none. Overall, delayed and sustained growth in infant weight and length resulted in higher values of all outcomes except bone density, with the period up to 15 wk of age appearing critical for setting childhood anthropometry in this population.

CONCLUSIONS

The explanation for the effects of delayed growth and length of the period in which trajectories are set is unclear; however, sustained and delayed growth in early infancy appears to be beneficial for these LBW children at least in the short-term. The trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as BT/PR7489/PID/20/285/2006.

Dietary Iron Intake and Anemia Are Weakly Associated, Limiting Effective Iron Fortification Strategies in India

BACKGROUND

Anemia prevalence in India remains high despite preventive iron supplementation programs. Consequently, concurrent national policies of iron fortification of staple foods have been initiated.

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluated the relation between dietary iron intake and anemia (hemoglobin <12 g/dL) in women of reproductive age (WRA; 15-49 y) with respect to iron fortification in India.

METHODS

Data from 2 national surveys were used. Data on hemoglobin in WRA were sourced from the National Family Health Survey-4, whereas dietary intakes were sourced from the National Sample Survey. Adjusted odds for anemia with increasing iron intake were estimated, along with the effect of modulating nutrients such as vitamins B-12 and C, from statistically matched household data from the 2 surveys. The risks of inadequate (less than the Estimated Average Requirement for WRA) and excess (more than the tolerable upper limit for WRA) intakes of iron were estimated by the probability approach.

RESULTS

The relation between iron intake and the odds of anemia was weak (OR: 0.992; 95% CI: 0.991, 0.994); increasing iron intake by 10 mg/d reduced the odds of anemia by 8%. Phytate and vitamin B-12 and C intakes modified this relation by reducing the odds by 1.5% when vitamin B-12 and C intakes were set at 2 μg/d and 40 mg/d, respectively. The additional intake of 10 mg/d of fortified iron reduced the risk of dietary iron inadequacy from 24-94% to 9-39% across states, with no risk of excess iron intake. Approximately doubling this additional iron intake reduced the risk of inadequacy to 2-12%, but the risk of excess intake reached 22%.

CONCLUSIONS

Providing fortified iron alone may not result in substantial anemia reduction among WRA in India and could have variable benefits and risks across states. Geographically nuanced dietary strategies that include limited fortification and the intake of other beneficial nutrients should be carefully considered.

Revisiting Dietary Iron Requirement and Deficiency in Indian Women: Implications for Food Iron Fortification and Supplementation

Anemia in Indian women continues to be highly prevalent, and is thought to be due to low dietary iron content. The high risk of dietary iron deficiency is based on the Indian Council of Medical Research recommendation of 21 mg/d, but there is a need for a secure and transparent determination of the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) of iron in this population. In nonpregnant, nonlactating women of reproductive age (WRA), the EAR of iron was determined to be 15 mg/d. Applying this value to daily iron intakes among WRA in nationally representative Indian state-based data showed that the median risk of dietary iron deficiency was lower than previously thought (65%; IQR: 48-78%), with considerable heterogeneity between states (range: 25-93%). However, in a validation, this risk matched the risk of iron deficiency as defined by blood biomarkers in a recently completed survey. When the risk of dietary iron deficiency was modelled for an increase in iron intake through food fortification of a single dietary staple, that provided 10 mg/d, the median risk reduced substantially (from 65% to 20%), and it virtually disappeared when supplementary iron intakes through the national iron supplementation program were considered. The risk of exceeding the tolerable upper level (TUL) of intake of iron remains low in the population when receiving fortification of 10 mg/d, but is much higher if they consume greater amounts of iron through supplements (range: 0-54%). This newly and transparently defined Indian EAR of iron should be used to evaluate, with precision, the benefits and risks of iron fortification and supplementation policies.

The development of a whole-body potassium counter for the measurement of body cell mass in adult humans

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Total body potassium (TBK), has a natural radioactive isotope, which can be measured to derive body cell mass (BCM), making it useful in clinical conditions, early growth and pregnancy. The objective was to build a whole-body potassium counter (WBKC), to accurately measure TBK in the body.

METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN

A WBKC was designed and constructed using a shadow shield. A cellular four compartment (4C) model of fat free mass (FFM), using estimates of TBK along with total body water (TBW), was compared with a molecular 4C model of the body in twenty healthy adults (10 men and 10 women). The molecular 4C model used measurements of TBW, bone mineral content (BMC), and body volume from deuterium dilution (DD), dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and air displacement plethysmography (ADP) respectively.

RESULTS

The accuracy and precision of the WBKC were 2.8% and 1.9% with TBK phantoms. The mean estimate of FFM by the molecular 4C model was 40.4±6.8 kg, while it was 41.2±7.3 kg using the cellular 4C model.

CONCLUSIONS

A WBKC constructed from base principles, was relatively low cost, efficient, safe and noninvasive, but requires some design considerations. Its measurement of FFM compared well with the molecular 4C model. Once constructed, it offers a relatively costless, accurate and repeatable method to measure body composition in conditions with uncertain hydration status, at all life stages.

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: a pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

BACKGROUND

Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure.

METHODS

We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probit-transformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure.

RESULTS

In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the high-income Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association.

CONCLUSIONS

Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups.

Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.

METHODS

We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).

FINDINGS

Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese.

INTERPRETATION

The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.

Effect of participatory women's groups and counselling through home visits on children's linear growth in rural eastern India (CARING trial): a cluster-randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Around 30% of the world's stunted children live in India. The Government of India has proposed a new cadre of community-based workers to improve nutrition in 200 districts. We aimed to find out the effect of such a worker carrying out home visits and participatory group meetings on children's linear growth.

METHODS

We did a cluster-randomised controlled trial in two adjoining districts of Jharkhand and Odisha, India. 120 clusters (around 1000 people each) were randomly allocated to intervention or control using a lottery. Randomisation took place in July, 2013, and was stratified by district and number of hamlets per cluster (0, 1-2, or ≥3), resulting in six strata. In each intervention cluster, a worker carried out one home visit in the third trimester of pregnancy, monthly visits to children younger than 2 years to support feeding, hygiene, care, and stimulation, as well as monthly women's group meetings to promote individual and community action for nutrition. Participants were pregnant women identified and recruited in the study clusters and their children. We excluded stillbirths and neonatal deaths, infants whose mothers died, those with congenital abnormalities, multiple births, and mother and infant pairs who migrated out of the study area permanently during the trial period. Data collectors visited each woman in pregnancy, within 72 h of her baby's birth, and at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 18 months after birth. The primary outcome was children's length-for-age Z score at 18 months of age. Analyses were by intention to treat. Due to the nature of the intervention, participants and the intervention team were not masked to allocation. Data collectors and the data manager were masked to allocation. The trial is registered as ISCRTN (51505201) and with the Clinical Trials Registry of India (number 2014/06/004664).

RESULTS

Between Oct 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2015, we recruited 5781 pregnant women. 3001 infants were born to pregnant women recruited between Oct 1, 2013, and Feb 10, 2015, and were therefore eligible for follow-up (1460 assigned to intervention; 1541 assigned to control). Three groups of children could not be included in the final analysis: 147 migrated out of the study area (67 in intervention clusters; 80 in control clusters), 77 died after the neonatal period and before 18 months (31 in intervention clusters; 46 in control clusters), and seven had implausible length-for-age Z scores (<-5 SD; one in intervention cluster; six in control clusters). We measured 1253 (92%) of 1362 eligible children at 18 months in intervention clusters, and 1308 (92%) of 1415 eligible children in control clusters. Mean length-for-age Z score at 18 months was -2·31 (SD 1·12) in intervention clusters and -2·40 (SD 1·10) in control clusters (adjusted difference 0·107, 95% CI -0·011 to 0·226, p=0·08). The intervention did not significantly affect exclusive breastfeeding, timely introduction of complementary foods, morbidity, appropriate home care or care-seeking during childhood illnesses. In intervention clusters, more pregnant women and children attained minimum dietary diversity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for women 1·39, 95% CI 1·03-1·90; for children 1·47, 1·07-2·02), more mothers washed their hands before feeding children (5·23, 2·61-10·5), fewer children were underweight at 18 months (0·81, 0·66-0·99), and fewer infants died (0·63, 0·39-1·00).

INTERPRETATION

Introduction of a new worker in areas with a high burden of undernutrition in rural eastern India did not significantly increase children's length. However, certain secondary outcomes such as self-reported dietary diversity and handwashing, as well as infant survival were improved. The interventions tested in this trial can be further optimised for use at scale, but substantial improvements in growth will require investment in nutrition-sensitive interventions, including clean water, sanitation, family planning, girls' education, and social safety nets.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development (DFID).

Lipid based nutrient supplements (LNS) for treatment of children (6 months to 59 months) with moderate acute malnutrition (MAM): A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Moderate acute malnutrition is a major public health problem affecting children from low- and middle-income countries. Lipid nutrient supplements have been proposed as a nutritional intervention for its treatment.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of LNS for the treatment of MAM in infants and children 6 to 59 months of age.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review of randomized-controlled trials and controlled before-after studies.

RESULTS

Data from nine trials showed that use of LNS, in comparison to specially formulated foods, improved the recovery rate (RR 1.08; 95% CI 1.02-1.14, 8 RCTs, 8934 participants, low quality evidence); decreased the chances of no recovery (RR 0.70; 95% CI 0.58-0.85, 7 RCTs, 8364 participants, low quality evidence) and the risk of deterioration into severe acute malnutrition (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.73-1.03, 6 RCTs, 6788 participants, low quality evidence). There was little impact on mortality (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.54-1.52, 8 RCTs, 8364 participants, very-low- quality evidence) or default rate (RR 1.32; 95% CI 0.73-2.4, 7 studies, 7570 participants, low quality evidence). There was improvement in weight gain, weight-for-height z-scores, height-for-age z-scores and mid-upper arm circumference. Subset analyses suggested higher recovery rates with greater amount of calories provided and with ready-to-use therapeutic foods, in comparison to ready-to-use supplementary foods. One study comparing LNS with nutritional counselling (very low quality evidence) showed higher chance of recovery, lower risk of deteriorating into severe acute malnutrition and lower default rate, with no impact on mortality, and no recovery.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence restricted to the African regions suggests that LNS may be slightly more effective than specially formulated fortified foods or nutritional counselling in recovery from MAM, lowering the risk of deterioration into SAM, and improving weight gain with little impact on mortality or default rate.

Prenatal care and child growth and schooling in four low- and medium-income countries

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of prenatal care for improving birth and subsequent child outcomes in low-income countries remains controversial, with much of the evidence to date coming from high-income countries and focused on early-life outcomes. We examined associations between prenatal care visits and birth weight, height-for-age at 24 months and attained schooling in four low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We pooled data from prospective birth-cohort studies from Brazil, Guatemala, Philippines and South Africa. We created a prenatal care utilization index based on the number and timing of prenatal visits. Associations were examined between this index and birth weight, height-for-age at 24 months, and highest attained schooling grade until adulthood.

RESULTS

Among 7203 individuals in the analysis, 68.9% (Philippines) to 96.7% (South Africa) had at least one prenatal care visit, with most having at least four visits. Over 40% of Brazilians and Guatemalans had their first prenatal visit in the first trimester, but fewer Filipinos (13.9%) and South Africans (19.8%) did so. Prenatal care utilization was not significantly associated with birth weight (p>0.05 in pooled data). Each unit increase in the prenatal care utilization index was associated with 0.09 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.15) higher height-for-age z-score at 24 months and with 0.26 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.35) higher schooling grades attained. Although there was some heterogeneity and greater imprecision across sites, the results were qualitatively similar among the four different populations.

CONCLUSIONS

While not related to birth weight, prenatal care utilization was associated with important outcomes later in life, specifically higher height-for-age at 24 months and higher attained school grades. These results suggest the relevance of prenatal care visits for human capital outcomes important over the lifecycle.

Protocol for the economic evaluation of a community-based intervention to improve growth among children under two in rural India (CARING trial)

INTRODUCTION

Undernutrition affects ∼165 million children globally and contributes up to 45% of all child deaths. India has the highest proportion of global undernutrition-related morbidity and mortality. This protocol describes the planned economic evaluation of a community-based intervention to improve growth in children under 2 years of age in two rural districts of eastern India. The intervention is being evaluated through a cluster-randomised controlled trial (cRCT, the CARING trial).

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis nested within a cRCT will be conducted from a societal perspective, measuring programme, provider, household and societal costs. Programme costs will be collected prospectively from project accounts using a standardised tool. These will be supplemented with time sheets and key informant interviews to inform the allocation of joint costs. Direct and indirect costs incurred by providers will be collected using key informant interviews and time use surveys. Direct and indirect household costs will be collected prospectively, using time use and consumption surveys. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) will be calculated for the primary outcome measure, that is, cases of stunting prevented, and other outcomes such as cases of wasting prevented, cases of infant mortality averted, life years saved and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Sensitivity analyses will be conducted to assess the robustness of results.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

There is a shortage of robust evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of strategies to improve early child growth. As this economic evaluation is nested within a large scale, cRCT, it will contribute to understanding the fiscal space for investment in early child growth, and the relative (in)efficiency of prioritising resources to this intervention over others to prevent stunting in this and other comparable contexts. The protocol has all necessary ethical approvals and the findings will be disseminated within academia and the wider policy sphere.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN51505201; pre-results.

Integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) strategy for children under five

BACKGROUND

More than 7.5 million children younger than age five living in low- and middle-income countries die every year. The World Health Organization (WHO) developed the integrated management of childhood illness (IMCI) strategy to reduce mortality and morbidity and to improve quality of care by improving the delivery of a variety of curative and preventive medical and behavioral interventions at health facilities, at home, and in the community.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effects of programs that implement the IMCI strategy in terms of death, nutritional status, quality of care, coverage with IMCI deliverables, and satisfaction of beneficiaries.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2015, Issue 3), including the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) Group Specialised Register; MEDLINE; EMBASE, Ovid; the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), EbscoHost; the Latin American Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Virtual Health Library (VHL); the WHO Library & Information Networks for Knowledge Database (WHOLIS); the Science Citation Index and Social Sciences Citation Index, Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science; Population Information Online (POPLINE); the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP); and the Global Health, Ovid and Health Management, ProQuest database. We performed searches until 30 June 2015 and supplemented these by searching revised bibliographies and by contacting experts to identify ongoing and unpublished studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We sought to include randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and controlled before-after (CBA) studies with at least two intervention and two control sites evaluating the generic IMCI strategy or its adaptation in children younger than age five, and including at minimum efforts to improve health care worker skills for case management. We excluded studies in which IMCI was accompanied by other interventions including conditional cash transfers, food supplementation, and employment. The comparison group received usual health services without provision of IMCI.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened searches, selected trials, and extracted, analysed and tabulated data. We used inverse variance for cluster trials and an intracluster co-efficient of 0.01 when adjustment had not been made in the primary study. We used the GRADE (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation Working Group) approach to assess the certainty of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

Two cluster-randomised trials (India and Bangladesh) and two controlled before-after studies (Tanzania and India) met our inclusion criteria. Strategies included training of health care staff, management strengthening of health care systems (all four studies), and home visiting (two studies). The two studies from India included care packages targeting the neonatal period.One trial in Bangladesh estimated that child mortality may be 13% lower with IMCI, but the confidence interval (CI) included no effect (risk ratio (RR) 0.87, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.10; 5090 participants; low-certainty evidence). One CBA study in Tanzania gave almost identical estimates (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.05; 1932 participants).One trial in India examined infant and neonatal mortality by implementing the integrated management of neonatal and childhood illness (IMNCI) strategy including post-natal home visits. Neonatal and infant mortality may be lower in the IMNCI group compared with the control group (infant mortality hazard ratio (HR) 0.85, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.94; neonatal mortality HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.03; one trial, 60,480 participants; low-certainty evidence).We estimated the effect of IMCI on any mortality measured by combining infant and child mortality in the one IMCI and the one IMNCI trial. Mortality may be reduced by IMCI (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.93; two trials, 65,570 participants; low-certainty evidence).Two trials (India, Bangladesh) evaluated nutritional status and noted that there may be little or no effect on stunting (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.84 to 1.06; 5242 participants, two trials; low-certainty evidence) and there is probably little or no effect on wasting (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.25; two trials, 4288 participants; moderate-certainty evidence).The Tanzania CBA study showed similar results.Investigators measured quality of care by observing prescribing for common illnesses at health facilities (727 observations, two studies; very low-certainty evidence) and by observing prescribing by lay health care workers (1051 observations, three studies; very low-certainty evidence). We could not confirm a consistent effect on prescribing at health facilities or by lay health care workers, as certainty of the evidence was very low.For coverage of IMCI deliverables, we examined vaccine and vitamin A coverage, appropriate care seeking, and exclusive breast feeding. Two trials (India, Bangladesh) estimated vaccine coverage for measles and reported that there is probably little or no effect on measles vaccine coverage (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.05; two trials, 4895 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), with similar effects seen in the Tanzania CBA study. Two studies measured the third dose of diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus vaccine; and two measured vitamin A coverage, all providing little or no evidence of increased coverage with IMCI.Four studies (2 from India, and 1 each from Tanzania and Bangladesh) reported appropriate care seeking and derived information from careful questioning of mothers about recent illness. Some studies on effects of IMCI may report better care seeking behavior, but others do not report this.All four studies recorded maternal responses on exclusive breast feeding. They provided mixed results and very low-certainty evidence. Therefore, we do not know whether IMCI impacts exclusive breast feeding.No studies reported on the satisfaction of mothers and service users.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The mix of interventions examined in research studies evaluating the IMCI strategy varies, and some studies include specific inputs to improve neonatal health. Most studies were conducted in South Asia. Implementing the integrated management of childhood illness strategy may reduce child mortality, and packages that include interventions for the neonatal period may reduce infant mortality. IMCI may have little or no effect on nutritional status and probably has little or no effect on vaccine coverage. Maternal care seeking behavior may be more appropriate with IMCI, but study results have been mixed, providing evidence of very low certainty about whether IMCI has effects on adherence to exclusive breast feeding.

Fortification of staple foods with zinc for improving zinc status and other health outcomes in the general population

BACKGROUND

Zinc deficiency is a global nutritional problem, particularly in children and women residing in settings where diets are cereal based and monotonous. It has several negative health consequences. Fortification of staple foods with zinc may be an effective strategy for preventing zinc deficiency and improving zinc-related health outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the beneficial and adverse effects of fortification of staple foods with zinc on health-related outcomes and biomarkers of zinc status in the general population.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following databases in April 2015: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, Issue 3 of 12, 2015, the Cochrane Library), MEDLINE & MEDLINE In Process (OVID) (1950 to 8 April 2015), EMBASE (OVID) (1974 to 8 April 2015), CINAHL (1982 to April 2015), Web of Science (1900 to 9 April 2015), BIOSIS (1969 to 9 April 2015), POPLINE (1970 to April 2015), AGRICOLA, OpenGrey, BiblioMap, and Trials Register of Promoting Health Interventions (TRoPHI), besides regional databases (April 2015) and theses. We also searched clinical trial registries (17 March 2015) and contacted relevant organisations (May 2014) in order to identify ongoing and unpublished studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials, randomised either at the level of the individual or cluster. We also included non-randomised trials at the level of the individual if there was a concurrent comparison group. We included non-randomised cluster trials and controlled before-after studies only if there were at least two intervention sites and two control sites. Interventions included fortification (central/industrial) of staple foods (cereal flours, edible fats, sugar, condiments, seasonings, milk and beverages) with zinc for a minimum period of two weeks. Participants were members of the general population who were over two years of age (including pregnant and lactating women) from any country.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed the eligibility of studies for inclusion, extracted data from included studies, and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies.

MAIN RESULTS

We included eight trials (709 participants); seven were from middle-income countries of Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America where zinc deficiency is likely to be a public health problem. Four trials compared the effect of zinc-fortified staple foods with unfortified foods (comparison 1), and four compared zinc-fortified staple foods in combination with other nutrients/factors with the same foods containing other nutrients or factors without zinc (comparison 2). The interventions lasted between one and nine months. We categorised most trials as having unclear or high risk of bias for randomisation, but low risk of bias for blinding and attrition. None of the studies in comparison 1 reported data on zinc deficiency.Foods fortified with zinc increased the serum or plasma zinc levels in comparison to foods without added zinc (mean difference (MD) 2.12 µmol/L, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25 to 3.00 µmol/L; 3 studies; 158 participants; low-quality evidence). Participants consuming foods fortified with zinc versus participants consuming the same food without zinc had similar risk of underweight (average risk ratio 3.10, 95% CI 0.52 to 18.38; 2 studies; 397 participants; low-quality evidence) and stunting (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% CI 0.36 to 2.13; 2 studies; 397 participants; low-quality evidence). A single trial of addition of zinc to iron in wheat flour did not find a reduction in proportion of zinc deficiency (RR 0.17, 95% CI 0.01 to 3.94; very low-quality evidence). We did not find a difference in serum or plasma zinc levels in participants consuming foods fortified with zinc plus other micronutrients when compared with participants consuming the same foods with micronutrients but no added zinc (MD 0.03 µmol/L, 95% CI -0.67 to 0.72 µmol/L; 4 studies; 250 participants; low-quality evidence). No trial in comparison 2 provided information about underweight or stunting.There was no reported adverse effect of fortification of foods with zinc on indicators of iron or copper status.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Fortification of foods with zinc may improve the serum zinc status of populations if zinc is the only micronutrient used for fortification. If zinc is added to food in combination with other micronutrients, it may make little or no difference to the serum zinc status. Effects of fortification of foods with zinc on other outcomes including zinc deficiency, children's growth, cognition, work capacity of adults, or on haematological indicators are unknown. Given the small number of trials and participants in each trial, further investigation of these outcomes is required.

Association between anthropometry, cardiometabolic risk factors, & early life factors & adult measures of endothelial function: Results from the New Delhi Birth Cohort

Background & objectives:

Abnormal endothelial function represents a preclinical marker of atherosclerosis. This study was conducted to evaluate associations between anthropometry, cardiometabolic risk factors, and early life factors and adult measures of endothelial function in a young urban Indian cohort free of clinical cardiovascular disease.

Methods:

Absolute changes in brachial artery diameter following cuff inflation and sublingual nitroglycerin (400 µg) were recorded to evaluate endothelium-dependent and -independent measures of endothelial function in 600 participants (362 men; 238 women) from the New Delhi Birth Cohort (2006-2009). Data on anthropometry, cardiometabolic risk factors, medical history, socio-economic position, and lifestyle habits were collected. Height and weight were recorded at birth, two and 11 yr of age. Age- and sex-adjusted linear regression models were developed to evaluate these associations.

Results:

The mean age of participants was 36±1 yr. Twenty two per cent men and 29 per cent women were obese (BMI > 30 kg/m²). Mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) was 131±14 and 119±13 mmHg, and diabetes prevalence was 12 and 8 per cent for men and women, respectively. Brachial artery diameter was higher for men compared with women both before (3.48±0.37 and 2.95±0.35 cm) and after hyperaemia (3.87±0.37 vs. 3.37±0.35 cm). A similar difference was seen before and after nitroglycerin. Markers of increased adiposity, smoking, SBP, and metabolic syndrome, but not early life anthropometry, were inversely associated with endothelial function after adjustment for age and sex.

Interpretation & conclusions:

The analysis of the current prospective data from a young urban Indian cohort showed that cardiometabolic risk factors, but not early life anthropometry, were associated with worse endothelial function.

Participatory women's groups and counselling through home visits to improve child growth in rural eastern India: protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Child stunting (low height-for-age) is a marker of chronic undernutrition and predicts children's subsequent physical and cognitive development. Around one third of the world's stunted children live in India. Our study aims to assess the impact, cost-effectiveness, and scalability of a community intervention with a government-proposed community-based worker to improve growth in children under two in rural India.

METHODS

The study is a cluster randomised controlled trial in two rural districts of Jharkhand and Odisha (eastern India). The intervention tested involves a community-based worker carrying out two activities: (a) one home visit to all pregnant women in the third trimester, followed by subsequent monthly home visits to all infants aged 0-24 months to support appropriate feeding, infection control, and care-giving; (b) a monthly women's group meeting using participatory learning and action to catalyse individual and community action for maternal and child health and nutrition. Both intervention and control clusters also receive an intervention to strengthen Village Health Sanitation and Nutrition Committees. The unit of randomisation is a purposively selected cluster of approximately 1000 population. A total of 120 geographical clusters covering an estimated population of 121,531 were randomised to two trial arms: 60 clusters in the intervention arm receive home visits, group meetings, and support to Village Health Sanitation and Nutrition Committees; 60 clusters in the control arm receive support to Committees only. The study participants are pregnant women identified in the third trimester of pregnancy and their children (n = 2520). Mothers and their children are followed up at seven time points: during pregnancy, within 72 hours of delivery, and at 3, 6, 9, 12 and 18 months after birth. The trial's primary outcome is children's mean length-for-age Z scores at 18 months. Secondary outcomes include wasting and underweight at all time points, birth weight, growth velocity, feeding, infection control, and care-giving practices. Additional qualitative and quantitative data are collected for process and economic evaluations.

DISCUSSION

This trial will contribute to evidence on effective strategies to improve children's growth in India.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN register 51505201 ; Clinical Trials Registry of India number 2014/06/004664.