Frailty Assessment Can Enhance Current Risk Prediction Tools in Emergency Laparotomy: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

We set out to assess the performance of the P-POSSUM and NELA risk prediction tool (NELA RPT), and hypothesized that combining them with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) would significantly improve their performance. Emergency laparotomy (EL) is a high-risk surgical intervention, particularly for elderly patients with marked comorbidities and frailty. Accurate risk prediction is crucial for appropriate resource allocation, clinical decision making, and informed consent. Although patient frailty is a significant risk factor, the current risk prediction tools fail to take frailty into account.

METHODS

In this retrospective single-center cohort study, we analyzed all cases entered into the NELA database from the Oxford University Hospitals between 01.01.2018 and 15.06.2021. We analyzed the performance of the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT. Both tools were modified by adding the CFS to the model.

RESULTS

The discrimination of both the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT was good, with a slightly worse performance in the elderly. Adding CFS into the P-POSSUM and NELA RPT models improved both tools in the elderly [AUC from 0.775 to 0.846 (p < 0.05) from 0.814 to 0.864 (p < 0.05), respectively]. The improvement of the NELA RPT across all age groups did not reach statistical significance. The CFS grade was associated with 30-day mortality in patients aged > 65 years. However, in younger patients, this effect was less marked than in the elderly.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis demonstrated a significant improvement in the P-POSSUM and NELA risk models when combined with the CFS. Frailty also increases the 30-day mortality after EL in younger individuals.

Isolated greater trochanter fracture may impose a comparable risk on older patients' survival as a conventional hip fracture: a population-wide cohort study

Background

Isolated greater trochanter fracture (IGT) and conventional hip fracture (HF) affect the same anatomical area but are usually researched separately. HF is associated with high mortality, and its management is well established. In contrast, IGT’s effect on mortality is unknown, and its best management strategies are unclear. This study aims to compare these patient populations, their acute- and post-acute care, physical and occupational therapy use, and up to three-year mortality.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study is based on population-wide data of Estonia, where routine IGT management is non-operative and includes immediate weight-bearing as tolerated. The study included patients aged ≥ 50 years with a validated index HF or IGT diagnosis between 2009–2017. The fracture populations’ acute- and post-acute care, one-year physical and occupational therapy use and three-year mortality were compared.

Results

A total of 0.4% (50/11,541) of included patients had an IGT. The baseline characteristics of the fracture cohorts showed a close resemblance, but the IGT patients received substantially less care. Adjusted analyses showed that the IGT patients’ acute care was 4.5 days [3.4; 5.3] shorter they had 39.2 percentage points [25.5; 52.8] lower probability for receiving post-acute care, and they had 50 percentage points [5.5: 36]] lower probability for receiving physical and occupational therapy. The IGT and HF patients’ mortality rates were comparable, being 4% and 9% for one month, 28% and 31% for one year, and 46% and 49% for three years, respectively. Crude and adjusted analyses could not find significant differences in their three-year mortality, showing a p-value of 0.6 and a hazard ratio of 0.9 [0.6; 1.3] for the IGT patients, retrospectively.

Conclusions

Despite IGT being a relatively minor injury, the evidence from this study suggests that it may impose a comparable risk on older patients’ survival, as does HF due to the close resemblance of the two fracture populations. Therefore, IGT in older patients may signify an underlying need for broad-based medical attention, ensuring need-based, ongoing, coordinated care.

Trial registration

Retrospectively registered.

Comparative Analysis of Gut Microbiota in Centenarians and Young People: Impact of Eating Habits and Childhood Living Environment

The composition of centenarians’ gut microbiota has consistently been used as a model for healthy aging studies. However, there is an incomplete understanding of how childhood living conditions and eating habits affect the development and composition of gastrointestinal microbiota in centenarians with good cognitive functions. We compared the gut microbiota as well as the living and eating habits of the oldest-old group and the young people group. The richness and diversity of microbiota and the abundance of hereditary and environmental microbes were higher in people with longevity than young people. People with longevity ate more potatoes and cereal products. In their childhood, they had more exposure to farm animals and did not have sewers compared with young people. Young people’s gut microbiota contained more butyrate-producing bacteria and bacteria that characterized an animal-based Western diet. These results expand our understanding of the effects of childhood environment and diet on the development and stability of the microbiota in people with longevity.

Simple Excel and ICD-10 based dataset calculator for the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity indices

Background

The Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Indices are the most widely used comorbidity assessment methods in medical research. Both methods are adapted for use with the International Classification of Diseases, which 10th revision (ICD-10) is used by over a hundred countries in the world. Available Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index calculating methods are limited to a few applications with command-line user interfaces, all requiring specific programming language skills. This study aims to use Microsoft Excel to develop a non-programming and ICD-10 based dataset calculator for Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index and to validate its results with R- and SAS-based methods.

Methods

The Excel-based dataset calculator was developed using the program’s formulae, ICD-10 coding algorithms, and different weights of the Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index. Real, population-wide, nine-year spanning, index hip fracture data from the Estonian Health Insurance Fund was used for validating the calculator. The Excel-based calculator’s output values and processing speed were compared to R- and SAS-based methods.

Results

A total of 11,491 hip fracture patients’ comorbidities were used for validating the Excel-based calculator. The Excel-based calculator’s results were consistent, revealing no discrepancies, with R- and SAS-based methods while comparing 192,690 and 353,265 output values of Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, respectively. The Excel-based calculator’s processing speed was slower but differing only from a few seconds up to four minutes with datasets including 6250–200,000 patients.

Conclusions

This study proposes a novel, validated, and non-programming-based method for calculating Charlson and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index scores. As the comorbidity calculations can be conducted in Microsoft Excel’s simple graphical point-and-click interface, the new method lowers the threshold for calculating these two widely used indices.

Trial registration

retrospectively registered.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01492-7.

Nonoperative hip fracture management practices and patient survival compared to surgical care: an analysis of Estonian population-wide data

A notable proportion of hip fracture patients receive nonoperative management, but such practice is seldom analysed. Although highly variable reasons underpin hip fracture nonoperative management, none of these practices conclusively outweigh the superiority of operative management. Nonoperative management should be only considered when surgery is not an option.

PURPOSE

Reasons underpinning hip fracture (HF) nonoperative management (NOM) are seldom analysed. This study aims to identify the reasons behind NOM and assess the accuracy of these decisions using these patients' survival compared with those treated with operative management (OM).

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study based on population-wide administrative health data, including patients aged ≥ 50 with an index HF diagnosis between January 2009 and September 2017. NOM patients were subgrouped according to their expected prognoses, and their survival up to 36 months was compared with those treated surgically.

RESULTS

From a total of 11,210 included patients, 6.8% (766) received NOM. Varying reasons lead to NOM, dividing them further into five distinct subgroups: (I) 46% NOM decision due to poor expected prognosis with OM; (II) 29% NOM decision due to poor expected prognosis for mixed reasons; (III) 15% NOM decision due to good expected prognosis with NOM; (IV) 8.0% NOM decision due to patient's refusal of OM; and (V) 1.3% NOM decision due to occult HF. Only poor prognosis and patients who refused OM (I, II, IV) had worse survival than OM patients. However, a relatively high proportion of the poor prognosis patients survived 1 year (29%).

CONCLUSION

Although there was high variability in reasons underpinning HF NOM, none of these practices conclusively outweigh OM's superiority. NOM should be considered with utmost care and only for patients for whom OM is out of the question - well-defined medical unfitness or carefully considered refusal by understanding the increased mortality risk.

Causal variation modelling identifies large inter- and intra-regional disparities in physical therapy offered to hip fracture patients in Estonia

PURPOSE

An essential measure of hip fracture (HF) rehabilitation, the amount of physical therapy (PT) used per patient, has been severely understudied. This study (1) evaluates post-acute PT use after HF in Estonia, (2) presents causal variation modelling for examining inter- and intra-regional disparities, and (3) analyses its temporal trends.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used validated population-wide health data, including patients aged ≥50 years, with an index HF diagnosed between January 2009 and September 2017. Patients' 6-month PT use was analysed and reported separately for acute and post-acute phases.

RESULTS

While most of the included 11,461 patients received acute rehabilitation, only 40% of them received post-acute PT by a median of 6 h. Analyses based on measures of central tendency revealed 2.5 to 2.6-fold inter-regional differences in HF post-acute rehabilitation. Variation modelling additionally detected intra-regional disparities, showing imbalances in the fairness of allocating local rehabilitation resources between a county's patients.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the advantages of causal variation modelling for identifying inter- and intra-regional disparities in rehabilitation. The analyses revealed persisting large multi-level disparities and accompanying overall inaccessibility of PT in HF rehabilitation in Estonia, showing an urgent need for system-wide improvements.Implications for rehabilitationThis study demonstrates the advantages of causal variation modelling for identifying inter- and intra-regional disparities in rehabilitation, using an essential outcome measure - used physical therapy hours.The study revealed large multi-level disparities and overall inaccessibility of physical therapy in hip fracture rehabilitation in Estonia, showing an urgent need for system-wide improvements.This study expands our knowledge on unstudied topics - hip fracture post-acute care and long-term physical therapy use.This regional analysis provides the first evidence-based regional-level basis for improving the rehabilitation system in Estonia.

Epidemiology of Fragility Fractures and Social Impact

Hip fracture is an important and debilitating condition in older people, especially in women. The epidemiological data vary between countries, but it is globally estimated that hip fractures currently affect around 18% of women and 6% of men. Although the age-standardised incidence is gradually decreasing in many countries, this is far outweighed by the ageing of the population. Thus, the global number of hip fractures is expected to increase. The direct costs associated with this condition are enormous since it requires a long period of hospitalisation and subsequent rehabilitation. Furthermore, hip fracture is associated with the development of other negative consequences, such as disability, depression, and cardiovascular diseases, with additional costs for society. At the same time, increasing attention is given to other osteoporotic fractures, such as vertebral ones, that are associated with negative health outcomes and enormous costs. In this chapter, we describe the most recent epidemiological data regarding hip and other osteoporotic fractures, with special attention to the well-known risk factors and conditions that seem relevant for determining fractures in older people. A specific part is dedicated to the social costs due to fractures. Although the costs of hip fracture are probably comparable to other common diseases with a high hospitalisation rate (e.g. cardiovascular disease), the other social costs (due to onset of new comorbidities, sarcopenia, poor quality of life, disability and mortality) are probably greater.

Estonian hip fracture data from 2009 to 2017: high rates of non-operative management and high 1-year mortality

Background and purpose - There are no national guidelines for treatment of hip fractures in Estonia and no studies on management. We assessed treatment methods and mortality rates for hip fracture patients in Estonia. Patients and methods - We studied a population-based retrospective cohort using validated data from the Estonian Health Insurance Fund's database. The cohort included patients aged 50 and over with an index hip fracture diagnosis between January 1, 2009 and September 30, 2017. The study generated descriptive statistics of hip fracture management methods and calculated in-hospital, 1-, 3, 6-, and 12-month unadjusted all-cause mortality rates. [CrossRef] Results - 91% (number of hips: 11,628/12,731) of the original data were included after data validation. Median patient age was 81 years, 83 years for women and 74 years for men. 28% were men. Treatment methods were: total hip arthroplasty 7%; hemiarthroplasty 25%; screws 6%; sliding hip screw 25%; intramedullary nail 27%; and nonoperative management 10%. Unadjusted all-cause mortality rates for in-hospital, 1, 3, 6, and 12 months were: 3%, 9%, 18%, 24%, and 31% respectively. The 12-month mortality rate for nonoperative management was 58%. [CrossRef] Interpretation - High rates of nonoperative management and overall high 1-year mortality rates after an index hip fracture indicate the need to review exclusion criteria for surgery and subacute care in Estonia.

Higher blood glucose level associated with body mass index and gut microbiota in elderly people

Background

Some dominant bacterial divisions of the intestines have been linked to metabolic diseases such as overweight and diabetes.

Objective

A pilot study aimed to evaluate the relations between the culturable intestinal bacteria with body mass index (BMI) and some principal cellular and metabolic markers of blood in people older than 65.

Design

Altogether 38 generally healthy elderly people were recruited: ambulatory (n=19) and orthopedic surgery (n=19). Questionnaires on general health, anthropometric measurements, routine clinical and laboratory data, and quantitative composition of cultivable gut microbiota were performed.

Results

Blood glucose level was positively correlated with BMI (r=0.402; p=0.014). Higher blood glucose level had negative correlation with relative share of intestinal anaerobic bacteria such as bacteroides (r=−0.434; p=0.0076) and gram-positive anaerobic cocci (r=−0.364; p=0.027). In contrast, the relative share of bifidobacteria (r=0.383; p=0.019) and staphylococci (r=0.433; p=0.008) was positively correlated to blood glucose level. In elderly people, a higher blood glucose concentration was predicted by the reduction of the anaerobes’ proportion (adj. sex, age, and BMI R²=0.192, p=0.028) and that of Bacteroides sp. (adj. R²=0.309, p=0.016).

Conclusion

A tight interplay between increased BMI, level of blood glucose, and the reduced proportion of cultivable bacteroides is taking place in the gut microbiota of elderly people.

Safety of a probiotic cheese containing Lactobacillus plantarum Tensia according to a variety of health indices in different age groups

Safety of the probiotic Lactobacillus plantarum strain Tensia (DSM 21380) was tested in vitro, in semihard Edam-type cheese, in an animal model and after consumption of the probiotic cheese in double-blind randomized placebo-controlled human intervention studies with different age groups. The susceptibility of L. plantarum Tensia to 8 antibiotics, and the presence of tetracycline (tet M, S, O, K, L) genes and class 1 integron was assessed by applying epsilometer-test and PCR-based methods. Production of biogenic amines by the probiotic strain in decarboxylation medium containing 1% of l-histidine, l-glutamine, l-ornithine, l-arginine, or l-lysine and in cheese was tested by gas chromatography. The biosafety of L. plantarum Tensia was evaluated on National Institutes of Health-line mice fed cheese containing Tensia at a concentration of 9.6 log cfu/g for 30 consecutive days. In human intervention trials in adults and the elderly, the effects of different doses of Edam-type cheese and the probiotic bacterium on BW, gut functionality indices, and host metabolism were evaluated. The strain L. plantarum Tensia was susceptible to all tested antibiotics and did not possess the tetracycline resistance-determining genes tet(L), tet(S) and tet(O), nor did it contain the integron (Int1) gene. However, the strain was tet(K) and tet(M) positive. Lactobacillus plantarum Tensia did not produce potentially harmful biogenic amines, such as histamine or cadaverine. The amount of tyramine produced in the cheese environment during ripening and after 15 wk of storage was below the clinically significant content. In the animal model, no translocation of the administered strain or other microbes into the blood or organs of mice was detected. No harmful effect was observed on body mass index, inflammatory markers, or serum lipidograms during human intervention trials with different age groups at a daily dose of 10.3 or 8.17 log cfu/serving for 3 wk. No negative effect on gastrointestinal welfare was observed, but the consumption of 100g/d for 3 wk caused hard stools from the second week of the trial. The content of total lactobacilli increased in feces, and the presence of the ingested probiotic strain was confirmed after the consumption of cheese. Thus, L. plantarum strain Tensia is suitable for generally recognized as safe (GRAS) and qualified presumption of safety (QPS) criteria because it did not have any undesirable characteristics. The regular semihard Edam-type cheese (fat content of 26%) with the probiotic additive at a daily dose of 50 g or in excess (100g) and with a probiotic daily dose of 10 log cfu for 3 wk was safe.

Intestinal Lactobacillus sp. is associated with some cellular and metabolic characteristics of blood in elderly people

The higher counts or particular groups (Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes) of intestinal microbiota are related to host metabolic reactions, supporting a balance of human ecosystem. We further explored whether intestinal lactobacilli were associated with some principal cellular and metabolic markers of blood in 38 healthy >65-year-old persons. The questionnaire, routine clinical and laboratory data of blood indices as much as the oxidized low-density lipoprotein (ox-LDL) and baseline diene conjugates in low-density lipoprotein (BDC-LDL) of blood sera were explored. The PCR-based intestinal Lactobacillus sp. composition and counts of cultivable lactobacilli (LAB) were tested. The facultative heterofermentative lactobacilli (Lactobacillus casei and Lactobacillus paracasei) were the most frequent (89 and 97%, respectively) species found, while Lactobacillus acidophilus, Lactobacillus plantarum and Lactobacillus reuteri were present in almost half of the elderly persons. The number of species simultaneously colonizing the individuals ranged from 1 to 7 (median 4). In elderly consuming probiotics the LAB counts were significantly higher than in these not consuming (median 7.8, range 4.2-10.8 vs. median 6.3, range 3.3-9.7 log cfu/g; p=0.005), adjusted (OR=1.71, CI95 1.04-2.82; p=0.035) for age and body mass index (BMI). The colonization by L. acidophilus was negatively related (r=-0.367, p=0.0275) to L. reuteri, staying significant after adjusting for age, sex and BMI (OR=0.16, CI95 0.04-0.73; p=0.018). However, the blood glucose concentration showed a tendency for a negative correlation for colonization with Lactobacillus fermentum (r=-0.309, p=0.062) adjusted for BMI (Adj. R(2)=0.181; p=0.013) but not for age and sex. The higher white blood cells (WBC) count was positively related (r=0.434, p=0.007) to presence of Lactobacillus reuteri adjusted for age, sex and BMI (Adj. R(2)=0.193, p=0.027). The lower values of ox-LDL were predicted by higher counts of cultivable lactobacilli adjusted by sex, age and BMI (r = -0.389, p = 0.016; Adj. R(2)=0.184 p=0.029). In conclusion, the pilot study of elderly persons shows that the intestinal lactobacilli are tightly associated with WBC count, blood glucose and content of ox-LDL which all serve as risk markers in pathogenesis of inflammation, metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Evaluation of symptom presentation in dyspeptic patients referred for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy in Estonia

AIM

To investigate the structure of dyspeptic symptoms and determine the association between dyspeptic symptoms and endoscopic findings in patients referred for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy by family physicians in a country with a high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection.

METHODS

Consecutive outpatients (n=172; median 36 years, range 18-75; 85 male; 87 female) were referred to upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Patient history was recorded prior to upper gastrointestinal endoscopy using the computer-aided Glasgow Diagnostic System for Dyspepsia (GLADYS). Family physicians used open access endoscopy with a short waiting list. Two biopsies, both from the antrum and the corpus, were taken for histological assessment.

RESULTS

Out of the 172 patients studied, 81% (n=139) were H. pylori positive, 65% (n=112) were younger than 45 years. The incidence of peptic ulcer was 44% (n=75). Upper abdominal pain was the predominant complaint in 73% (n=126) of the patients, as well as the most frequent overall complaint. Hunger pain, night pain, periodical nature of symptoms, and history over 2 years were of independent value in differentiating between peptic ulcer and functional dyspepsia. The symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease and irritable bowel syndrome predominated in the minority of patients (11% and 5% respectively) but accompanied other complaints in almost 2/3 of the patients. In 32 out of 75 patients with peptic ulcer, the symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome and in 29 cases the presence of frequent heartburn and regurgitation were noted.

CONCLUSIONS

Classical symptoms are valuable in predicting the diagnosis of peptic ulcer. Heartburn and acid regurgitation are present in both gastroesophageal reflux disease and peptic ulcer. Irritable bowel syndrome is common in patients with peptic ulcer.

Prevalence of cardiovascular disorders among the elderly in primary care in Estonia

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prevalence of diagnoses of cardiovascular disorders among the elderly in family practice.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Estonia, population aged 65 years or older (206,915 persons).

SUBJECTS

811 elderly persons selected randomly from the lists of family practitioners.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of hypertension, hypotension, coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure (HF) and cardiac arrhythmias; differences between the genders and age groups.

RESULTS

The prevalence of cardiovascular disorders was as follows: hypertension 63.2%, hypotension 11.1%, CHD 56.5%, MI 9.8%, HF 41.4% and arrhythmias 37.5%. Women had a significantly higher prevalence of hypertension and men of MI. The prevalence of CHD and hypotension was significantly higher in the oldest elderly persons.

CONCLUSION

Among the older population in Estonia, cardiovascular disorders that have broader diagnostic criteria and need expensive methods for verifying (CHD, HF) have a high prevalence and are most likely over-diagnosed. The need for strict and simple diagnostic methods for these disorders in primary care practice continues to be serious.

Prevalence of antibiotic resistance of Helicobacter pylori isolates in Estonia during 1995-2000 in comparison to the consumption of antibiotics used in treatment regimens

OBJECTIVE

To find a possible relation between the dynamics of antibiotic resistance of Helicobacter pylori isolates and the consumption of antibiotics during the last several years in Estonia.

METHODS

Helicobacter pylori isolates were collected from the gastric mucosa of patients with peptic ulcer (153) and gastritis (68) and isolated on the Columbia Agar Base. From 1995 to 1997 the disk-diffusion method was used for testing of H. pylori susceptibility to metronidazole (115 isolates), erythromycin (119 isolates), tetracycline (119 isolates) and amoxicillin (119 isolates). From 1998 to 2000 the susceptibility of H. pylori to metronidazole (106 isolates), amoxicillin (30 isolates), clarithromycin (106 isolates) and ciprofloxacin (30 isolates) was assessed by E tests. Data from the Estonian State Agency of Medicines were used to determine the antibiotic consumption rate.

RESULTS

Up to the year 2000 all the investigated H. pylori isolates were susceptible to ciprofloxacin; the resistance to clarithromycin, tetracycline, amoxicillin and erythromycin was 3%, 1.7%, 0.7% and 2.5%, respectively. Forty-six percent of H. pylori isolates were resistant to metronidazole. During 1995-2000 the consumption of amoxicillin, erythromycin and ciprofloxacin increased and the consumption of tetracycline decreased. The increasing consumption of amoxicillin reached a level 5.7 times than that of the consistent use of metronidazole. The resistance to amoxicillin appeared to be very low and resistance to metronidazole was continuously high. The increase of clarithromycin consumption (from 0.002 to 1.119 defined daily doses/1000) during three years was associated with the appearance of the first clarithromycin-resistant isolates in 2000.

CONCLUSION

No relation was observed between the antibiotic consumption rate and the resistance pattern of H. pylori to metronidazole, amoxicillin, erythromycin, tetracycline and ciprofloxacin during recent years among the in population.

Open access endoscopy in an epidemiological situation of high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection: applicability of the guidelines of the European Society for Primary Care Gastroenterology

BACKGROUND

Dyspepsia is a common syndrome and provides primary care physicians with a significant workload. To optimize the management of dyspepsia, several guidelines have been developed.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of upper gastrointestinal diseases and their relationship to Helicobacter pylori infection in dyspeptic patients referred for upper endoscopy by family physicians, as well as to assess the applicability of the guidelines of the European Society for Primary Care Gastroenterology (ESPCG).

METHODS

A total of 168 unselected dyspeptic out-patients (mean age 38 years, range 18-75), 88 male and 80 female, were included. Two biopsies from the antrum and two from the corpus were taken for histological assessment, and one from the antrum and one from the corpus were taken for culture.

RESULTS

Half of the patients had clinically significant findings at endoscopy: peptic ulcer which occurred in 35% of the patients under the age of 30 years, in 45% of the patients in the age group 30-44 years and in 36% of the patients over 45 years of age. The prevalence of H. pylori infection in these age groups was 67, 87 and 89%, respectively. Duodenal ulcer was 12 times more common than gastric ulcer.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall incidence of upper gastrointestinal disease, especially among young dyspeptic patients, was high compared with that observed in Western countries. The characteristics of dyspeptic patients, consulted in primary care, should be used for adaptation of the ESPCG guidelines to local needs.

Health status of the older population in Estonia

AIM

To assess the prevalence of physical, depressive, and cognitive disorders in the elderly population in Estonia.

METHODS

The prevalence of various common morbidities was determined by a questionnaire sent to 200 general practitioners (GP). GPs were asked to collect data, use medical records, and interview five randomly selected patients (a total of 1,000 people aged 65 years or older). Physical morbidities of older persons were assessed according to their self-reports and reports of their general practitioners. Depressive symptoms and cognitive status were determined by 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale and Mini Mental State Examination, respectively. Response rate was 81%.

RESULTS

The prevalences of diseases were as follows: hypertension 63.2%, arthritis 61.3%, ischemic heart disease 56.5% (history of myocardial infarction, 9.8%), heart failure 41.4%, heart rhythm disorders 37.5%, hypercholesterolemia 25.4%, kidney and/or urinary disorders 20.5%, osteoporosis 15.5%, diabetes mellitus 14.9%, chronic airway diseases 13.8% (emphysema 5.8%, asthma 5.5%), hypotension 11.1%, gastroduodenal peptic ulcers 10.6%, thyroid diseases 8.9%, malignant tumors 8.1%, psychiatric disorders 5.7%, and stroke 5.3%. Depressive symptoms were found in 40.3% and cognitive impairment in 22.5% of the elderly persons.

CONCLUSIONS

The general structure of diseases in the Estonian elderly population is similar to that of other European countries, but the prevalence of cardiovascular, depressive, and cognitive disorders is much higher.

Does agrammatic speech constitute a regression to child language? A three-way comparison between agrammatic, child, and normal ellipsis

When children are in the process of learning their mother tongue, they show frequent use of nonfinite clauses, even though they produce finite clauses at the same time, thereby demonstrating the availability of the functional domain associated with finiteness. In this study the hypothesis was tested that this behavior results from an overuse of the normal elliptical repertoire that has also been observed in agrammatic aphasia. The purpose of this overuse is prevention of computational overload. In support of the hypothesis it was found that children behaved very similar to aphasics and normal adults with respect to the following parameters: (a) distribution of types of ellipsis, (b) elaboration of ellipses, (c) word order, (d) subject omission, (e) frequency of weak subject pronouns, and (f) verb type (eventivity). The results also support the Jackson/Jakobson regression hypothesis, at least at the grammatical level.

Metronidazole and clarithromycin susceptibility and the subtypes of vacA of Helicobacter pylori isolates in Estonia

The prevalence of metronidazole and clarithromycin resistance of Helicobacter pylori strains under different growth conditions (microaerophilic or anaerobic preincubation) was tested in 56 patients suffering from gastritis and peptic ulcer. vacA subtypes were detected in 46 H. pylori strains and were subsequently compared with the antibiotic resistance pattern. From 56 isolates, 26 proved resistant and 30 sensitive to metronidazole. The patients with peptic ulcer and gastritis were infected with both metronidazole-sensitive and metronidazole-resistant strains. In anaerobic preincubation all the strains were sensitive to metronidazole (MIC < 8 mg/l). All the strains were clarithromycin-sensitive (MIC < 2 mg/l). In the patients with gastritis and peptic ulcer s1 was the predominant vacA subtype. Comparison of vacA subtypes with the diagnoses revealed no correlation; different virulence factors such as vacA subtypes and antibiotic resistance to metronidazole in a microaerophilic milieu proved unrelated.

Accidental fenitrothion intoxication in young broilers

Death from fenitrothion intoxication in young broiler chicks has never been reported. The mortality in this instance was 16.4% in the first week. The dead birds were found lying in a ventral position resting their heads on the floor. Prior to death dyspnea and paralysis occurred. A concentration of 120 mg fenitrothion/kg of litter (dry weight) was found.

Judgments of semantic anomaly in agrammatic patients: argument movement, syntactic complexity, and the use of heuristics

Two studies on the judgment of semantic anomaly of sentences in agrammatic aphasia are reported. The primary question was whether performance on this task would be negatively affected by sentence complexity. In a first experiment, we repeated part of the study by Schwartz, Linebarger, Saffran, and Pate (Language and Cognitive Processing, 2, 85-113, 1987). With a group of 15 Dutch-speaking agrammatics, we obtained a small but significant negative effect of "lexical padding": sentences like "#the puppy ran around excitedly and accidently dropped the little boy onto the wet grass which upset Louise" elicited more errors than their simple counterparts, "#the puppy dropped the little boy." In our second study, we looked at (a) the effect of sentence embedding (e.g., "the doctor, who was tired of climbing a staircase, examined the patient") and (b) the effect of incorporating a "distractor agent" in the sentences, that is, an NP that could serve as a possible agent of the critical action (e.g., "the doctor, who had talked to the nurse, examined the patient"). In addition we employed sentences with moved arguments (e.g., "it was the patient who the doctor examined"). There were two major conclusions. First, syntactic complexity has a strong negative effect on anomaly judgments. Second, patient use a linear-order strategy to deal with the task. Results are discussed in terms of a range of recent approaches to agrammatic comprehension, not only representational hypotheses, based upon linguistic theory, but also processing accounts.

A time-based approach to agrammatic production

A time-based approach to agrammatic speech is presented. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, the literature which deals with agrammatic comprehension as a problem of disrupted timing, that is, as a slow-down of syntactic computation and/or a rapid decay of the results of syntactic processing, is reviewed. In a second part, the hypothesis that similar timing problems cause difficulties in production as well is discussed. Two possible ways in which this can happen are described. First, slow down or rapid decay can lead to desynchronization within the process of syntactic tree formation. Second, a slow down of syntactic processing can cause asynchrony between the production of a syntactic slot and the retrieval of the proper grammatical morpheme from the mental lexicon. This hypothesis predicts that morphemes which are dependent on a relatively complex part of the syntactic tree will elicit relatively many errors. Results from the literature which seem to confirm this prediction are discussed. In the third part of the paper, the possible ways in which a patient can adapt to the reduced temporal window that would result from a timing deficit are discussed. Message simplification will reduce the size of the required temporal window and will therefore have a beneficial effect on the error rate. Restart of the computational process will profit from previously reached activation levels so that synchrony is easier to reach and error rate is reduced. Empirical work which appears to support these hypotheses is reviewed.

The covert repair hypothesis: prearticulatory repair processes in normal and stuttered disfluencies

Self-repairing of speech errors demonstrates that speakers possess a monitoring device with which they verify the correctness of the speech flow. There is substantial evidence that this speech monitor not only comprises an auditory component (i.e., hearing one's own speech), but also an internal part: inspection of the speech program prior to its motoric execution. Errors thus may be detected before they are actually articulated. In the covert repair hypothesis of disfluency, this internal error detection possibility has been extended with an internal correction counterpart. Basically, the covert repair hypothesis contends that disfluencies reflect the interfering side-effects of covert, prearticulatory repairing of speech programming errors on the ongoing speech. Internally detecting and correcting an error obstructs the concurrent articulation in such manner that a disfluent speech event will result. Further, it is shown how, by combining a small number of typical overt self-repair features such as interrupting after error detection, retracing in an utterance, and marking the correction with editing terms, one can parsimoniously account for the specific forms disfluencies are known to take. This reasoning is argued to apply to both normal and stuttered disfluency. With respect to the crucial question concerning what makes stuttering speakers so greatly disfluent, it is hypothesized that their abilities to generate error-free speech programs are disordered. Hence, abundant stuttering derives from the need to repeatedly repair one's speech programs before their speech motor execution.

Manual reaction times and error rates in stutterers

In this study 18 stutterers and 18 nonstutterers were presented trials on which they should press a button as fast as possible, intermixed with trials which required no responding. Stutterers had slightly faster reaction times but also made slightly more errors, that is, they tended to press the button when they should not have done so. As neither difference was significant, it was concluded that stutterers did not differ from normal speakers in manual reaction speed, nor did they choose a different speed-accuracy trade-off criterion for the given task.