Association of air quality index (AQI) with incidence of atopic dermatitis in Taiwan: A nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Air pollutants may aggravate atopic dermatitis (AD). However, the association between Air Quality Index (AQI) and incidence of AD remains unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate association between AQI and incidence of AD, using the nationwide cohort in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD).

METHODS

We included 21,278,938 participants from the NHIRD not diagnosed with AD before 2008. Long-term average AQI value, obtained from the Taiwan Air Quality Monitoring System Network, before AD diagnosis was calculated and linked for each participant.

RESULTS

199,205 incident cases of AD were identified from 2008 to 2018. Participants were classified into 4 quantiles (Q) by AQI value. With the lowest quantile, Q1, as reference, the AD risk increased significantly in the Q2 group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.65), Q3 group (aHR: 4.71, 95% CI: 3.78-6.04), and was highest in the Q4 group (aHR: 13.20, 95% CI: 10.86-16.60). As AQI treated as a continuous variable, an increase of 1 unit of AQI value added 7% of AD risk (aHR, 1.07, 95% CI: 1.07-1.08).

LIMITATIONS

The NHIRD lacks detailed information on individual subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

The results demonstrated a significant positive association between AQI and incidence of AD with a clear dose-response relationship.

The epidemiology of pediatric psoriasis: A nationwide cohort study in Taiwan

Psoriasis can affect individuals of all age groups. While the epidemiology of psoriasis in adults has been extensively studied, there is limited research specifically investigating pediatric cases. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and incidence of skin psoriasis (PsO) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA) among pediatric patients in Taiwan. A nationwide cohort of 17 535 patients with psoriatic diseases under the age of 18 was enrolled from the National Health Insurance Research Database for the period 2000-2013, including 16 129 PsO patients and 2022 PsA patients. The age- and sex-standardized prevalence and incidence of pediatric PsO and PsA were calculated. The 2007 yearly reports of age- and sex-specific distribution of the general population was adopted as a standard. The results showed that between 2000 and 2013, the prevalence for pediatric PsO increased from 0.03% to 0.07%, and from 0.003% to 0.014% for pediatric PsA. During the same period, the incidence slightly decreased from 19.81 to 17.55 per 100 000 for pediatric PsO but increased from 1.02 to 5.06 per 100 000 for pediatric PsA. Adolescents (12 to <18 years) had higher prevalence and incidence rates of PsO and PsA than children (aged ≤ 12 years), with no sex difference observed in either age group. PsA preceding PsO was more common among children than adolescents (27.07% vs. 13.46%). This study provides important insights into the prevalence and incidence of psoriatic diseases in the pediatric population. Further research is needed to identify risk factors for pediatric psoriasis and to investigate its long-term health outcomes.

Psoriatic arthritis risk in psoriasis patients prescribed acitretin versus disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs: a nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To compare the risk of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in psoriasis (PsO) patients treated with acitretin vs disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs).

METHODS

This retrospective study used Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database from 1997 to 2013. Adult PsO patients without PsA prescribed acitretin or DMARDs for ≥30 days within a year were assigned to the acitretin cohort or DMARDs cohort, respectively. Patients in the acitretin cohort prescribed DMARDs for >7 days, or in the DMARDs cohort prescribed acitretin for >7 days, were excluded. Cumulative incidence of PsA were determined within both cohorts using the Kaplan-Meier method. The hazard ratio (HR) comparing acitretin to DMARDs was calculated with Cox regression models, adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates including the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and comorbidities.

RESULTS

The study included 1,948 patients in each cohort. The 5-year cumulative incidence of PsA in the acitretin cohort was lower than that in the reference cohort (7.52% vs 9.93%; P=0.005), with a more pronounced difference in the subpopulation receiving NSAIDs treatment. However, in subpopulations without NSAIDs treatment, the 5-year cumulative incidence of PsA in the acitretin cohort was comparable to the DMARDs cohort (5.26% vs 6.98%; P = 0.106). Acitretin was not associated with PsA development in PsO (HR 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.65-1.05). This risk remained consistent regardless of adjustments for NSAID treatment and comorbidities. Other independent risk factors for PsA included female and NSAIDs treatment.

CONCLUSION

Compared with DMARDs, acitretin was not associated with increased PsA risk in PsO patients.

Severe hepatitis B flares with hepatic decompensation after withdrawal of nucleos(t)ide analogues: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Finite nucleos(t)ide analogue (NUC) therapy has been proposed as an alternative treatment strategy for chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

AIM

To quantify the incidence of severe hepatitis flares following NUC cessation in everyday clinical practice.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study enrolled 10,192 patients (male 71.7%, median age 50.9 years, cirrhosis 10.7%) who had received first-line NUCs for at least 1 year before discontinuing treatment. The primary outcome was severe flare with hepatic decompensation. We used competing risk analyses to assess event incidences and associated risk factors.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 2.2 years, 132 patients developed severe flares with hepatic decompensation, yielding a 4-year cumulative incidence of 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5%-2.2%). Significant risk factors were cirrhosis (adjusted sub-distributional hazard ratio [aSHR], 2.74; 95% CI, 1.82-4.12), manifestations of portal hypertension (aSHR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.45-4.18), age (aSHR, 1.21 per 10 years; 95% CI, 1.03-1.42) and male sex (aSHR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.04-2.38). In patients without cirrhosis or portal hypertension (n = 8863), the 4-year cumulative incidence of severe withdrawal flares stood at 1.3% (95% CI, 1.0%-1.7%). For those patients with available data confirming adherence to the standard stopping rules (n = 1274), the incidence was 1.1% (95% CI, 0.6%-2.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Severe flares with hepatic decompensation were observed in 1%-2% of patients with CHB after stopping NUC therapy in daily practice. Risk factors included older age, cirrhosis, portal hypertension and male sex. Our findings argue against NUC cessation as part of routine clinical care.

Daily aspirin associated with a reduced risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a population-based cohort study

Background

Emerging laboratory and animal studies suggest that aspirin may prevent non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), however clinical evidence remains lacking.

Methods

Using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, we screened 145,212 NAFLD patients from 1997 through 2011. After excluding any confounding conditions, 33,484 patients who continuously received a daily dose of aspirin for 90 days or more (treated group), along with 55,543 patients who had not received antiplatelet therapy (untreated group), were respectively recruited. Inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score was applied to balance the baseline characteristics. Cumulative incidence of, and hazard ratio (HR) for HCC occurrence were analyzed after adjusting competing events. The high-risk patients, who were defined as age ≥ 55 years & elevated serum alanine aminotransferase, were further analyzed.

Findings

The 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC in the treated group was significantly lower than that in the untreated group (0.25% [95% CI, 0.19-0.32%] vs. 0.67% [95% CI, 0.54-0.81%]; P < 0.001). Aspirin therapy was significantly associated with a reduced HCC risk (adjusted HR [aHR] 0.48 [95% CI, 0.37-0.63]; P < 0.001). In the high-risk patients, the 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC in the treated group was significantly lower than that in the untreated group (3.59% [95% CI, 2.99-4.19%] vs. 6.54% [95% CI, 5.65-7.42%]; P < 0.001). Aspirin therapy remained associated with a reduced HCC risk (aHR 0.63 [95% CI, 0.53-0.76]; P < 0.001). Subgroup sensitivity analyses verified this significant association in nearly all subgroups. In the time-varying model amongst aspirin users, HCC risk was significantly lower through the use of aspirin for ≥ 3 years (aHR 0.64 [95% CI, 0.44-0.91]; P = 0.013), when compared with short-term use (< 1 year).

Interpretation

Daily aspirin therapy is significantly associated with a reduced HCC risk in NAFLD patients.

Funding

Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Health and Welfare, and Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taiwan.

Physical Fitness and Inflammatory Bowel Disease Risk Among Children and Adolescents in Taiwan

Importance

The incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing in newly industrialized countries but disease etiologies remain unclear.

Objective

To investigate the association between physical fitness and subsequent IBD risk among children and adolescents in Taiwan.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This nationwide cohort study was conducted between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2018. Data sources included the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, the National Student Fitness Tests Database, and the Air Quality Monitoring System Database. This study included students who were aged 10 years, completed physical fitness tests between grades 4 and 13, and had at least 1 year of follow-up. Data analysis was last performed on January 15, 2023.

Exposures

Physical fitness tests included cardiorespiratory endurance (CE; number of minutes to complete an 800-m run), musculoskeletal endurance (ME; number of bent-leg curl-ups in 1 minute), musculoskeletal power (MP; standing broad jump distance), and flexibility fitness (FF; 2-leg sit-and-reach distance).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Subsequent risk of IBD was compared among students based on physical fitness test results. Six-year cumulative incidences and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated after adjusting for competing mortality. Performance was reported in quantiles, ranging from 1 (best) to 4 (poorest).

Results

There were 4 552 866 students who completed physical fitness tests between grades 4 and 13; among these students, 1 393 641 were aged 10 years and were included in the analysis. Six-year cumulative incidence of IBD risk was lowest among students in the best-performing quantile of CE (quantile 1, 0.74% [95% CI, 0.63%-0.86%]; P < .001), ME (0.77% [0.65%-0.90%]; P < .001), and MP (0.81% [0.68%-0.93%]; P = .005) compared with students in quantiles 2 through 4, respectively; however, no association was observed for quantiles of FF. After adjusting for competing HRs for mortality and other confounders, better CE was inversely associated with IBD risk (adjusted HR, 0.36 [95% CI, 0.17-0.75]; P = .007). Other measures of physical fitness were not independently associated with IBD risk.

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this study suggest that CE was inversely associated with IBD risk among children and adolescents, but ME, MP, and FF were not independently associated with IBD risk. Future studies that explore the mechanisms are needed.

Risk of psychiatric disorders in patients with psoriasis prescribed acitretin versus disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs: a nationwide matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acitretin has been linked to the development of psychiatric disturbance.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the psychiatric hazards in patients with psoriasis prescribed acitretin compared with those prescribed disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs).

METHODS

This is a nationwide matched cohort study. From Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, Adult patients with psoriasis between 1997 and 2013 were screened. Patients prescribed acitretin for at least 30 days per year on average (acitretin cohort) were matched 1:2 with those prescribed DMARDs for at least 30 days per year on average (reference cohort), by means of age, gender, and psoriasis duration. Patients prescribed medication of the corresponding cohort for more than 7 days during the observation period were excluded. Cumulative incidences of psychiatric disorders in both cohorts were plotted with the Kaplan-Meier method. The modified Cox regression models were constructed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs).

RESULTS

In total, 1,152 and 2,304 patients in the acitretin and the reference cohort, respectively, were included. The 4-year cumulative incidence of overall psychiatric disorders (19.62% vs. 12.06%; p<.001), mood disorders (12.81% vs. 7.67%; p<.001), and psychosis (7.21% vs. 4.63%; p<.001) in the acitretin cohort were significantly higher than those in the reference cohort. Acitretin was independently associated with psychiatric disorders (HR 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-1.85). The risk is more accentuated in the subgroups of comorbid chronic liver disease (HR 2.60, 95% CI 1.56-4.33) or psoriatic arthritis (HR 3.23, 95% CI 1.75-5.97). Other independent risk factors included insomnia, acute coronary syndrome, females, and age.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, acitretin was associated with higher hazards of psychiatric disorders among psoriasis patients.

Early-Life Antibiotic Exposure Associated With Varicella Occurrence and Breakthrough Infections: Evidence From Nationwide Pre-Vaccination and Post-Vaccination Cohorts

Background

Antibiotic-driven dysbiosis may impair immune function and reduce vaccine-induced antibody titers.

Objectives

This study aims to investigate the impacts of early-life antibiotic exposure on subsequent varicella and breakthrough infections.

Methods

This is a nationwide matched cohort study. From Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database, we initially enrolled 187,921 children born from 1997 to 2010. Since 2003, the Taiwan government has implemented a one-dose universal varicella vaccination program for children aged 1 year. We identified 82,716 children born during the period 1997 to 2003 (pre-vaccination era) and 48,254 children born from July 1, 2004, to 2009 (vaccination era). In the pre-vaccination era, 4,246 children exposed to antibiotics for at least 7 days within the first 2 years of life (Unvaccinated A-cohort) were compared with reference children not exposed to antibiotics (Unvaccinated R-cohort), with 1:1 matching for gender, propensity score, and non-antibiotic microbiota-altering medications. Using the same process, 9,531 children in the Vaccinated A-cohort and Vaccinated R-cohort were enrolled from the vaccination era and compared. The primary outcome was varicella. In each era, demographic characteristics were compared, and cumulative incidences of varicella were calculated. Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine associations.

Results

In the pre-vaccination era, the 5-year cumulative incidence of varicella in the Unvaccinated A-cohort (23.45%, 95% CI 22.20% to 24.70%) was significantly higher than in the Unvaccinated R-cohort (16.72%, 95% CI 15.62% to 17.82%) (p<.001). In the vaccination era, a significantly higher 5-year cumulative incidence of varicella was observed in the Vaccinated A-cohort (1.63%, 95% 1.32% to 1.93%) than in the Vaccinated R-cohort (1.19%, 95% CI 0.90% to 0.45%) (p=0.006). On multivariate analyses, early-life antibiotic exposure was an independent risk factor for varicella occurrence in the pre-vaccination (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.92, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.12) and vaccination eras (aHR 1.66, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.23). The use of penicillins, cephalosporins, macrolides, or sulfonamides in infancy was all positively associated with childhood varicella regardless of vaccine administration.

Conclusions

Antibiotic exposure in early life is associated with varicella occurrence and breakthrough infections.

Association between early life laxative exposure and risk of allergic diseases A nationwide matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

The early life microbiome can shape human immunity. Recent studies have revealed gut dysbiosis after laxative administration.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact of infantile laxative exposure on subsequent allergic diseases.

METHODS

This nationwide matched cohort study was conducted using Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database for the period 1997 to 2013. A total of 32,986 patients who had complete information of maternal history and delivery modes were identified. We included 291 children having laxatives for at least 7 days within the first 6 months of life and 1164 reference children not receiving laxatives, matching by sex, propensity score, number of hospital visits, and maternal age at delivery. Demographic characteristics and maternal factors were compared, and cumulative incidences of allergic diseases were calculated. Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate associations.

RESULTS

The 5-year cumulative incidence of allergic diseases in the laxative cohort was significantly higher than that in the reference cohort (49.81% vs 41.68%; P = .01). Early life laxative exposure (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.61; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-1.97) was independently associated with allergic disease development. Other independent risk factors included preterm, male sex, maternal allergic diseases, and prenatal laxative use. Multivariable stratified analyses verified the association between early life laxative exposure and subsequent allergic disease development in all subgroups of children, including those born to mothers without allergic diseases or prenatal laxative use.

CONCLUSION

Early life laxative exposure is associated with allergic disease development.

Early-life infections in association with development of atopic dermatitis in infancy and early childhood: A nationwide nested case-control study

BACKGROUND

Microbial dysbiosis has been implicated in the development of atopic dermatitis (AD). The risk of development of AD following early-life infections remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact of early-life infections on AD development.

METHODS

This population-based nested case-control study was conducted using the Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 5,454 AD patients and 16,362 control subjects without AD were identified, for the period 1997 to 2013. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and maternal factors were compared. Adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was calculated to examine the associations between early-life infections and subsequent AD by conditional stepwise logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Mean age was 2.6±2.9 years in both groups. Overall infections (41.8% vs 28.9%) before the diagnosis of AD were more common in AD patients than in control subjects (p<.001). Infectious diseases (aOR, 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29-1.51), skin infections (aOR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.40-1.71) and systemic antibiotic exposure (aOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.55-1.79) before AD diagnosis were independently associated with AD development on multivariate analyses. These results were consistent across observation periods (0-1, 1-2, and >2 years after birth) and sensitivity analyses after redefining the index date as 3 or 6 months before the date of AD diagnosis. Other independent risk factors included asthma, allergic rhinitis, intussusception, and neonatal hyperbilirubinemia. No association with subsequent AD was found for maternal age at delivery, Cesarean delivery, or prenatal antibiotic exposure.

CONCLUSION

Infections in early life are associated with AD development in infancy and early childhood.

Reduced risk of skin cancer and internal malignancies in vitiligo patients: a retrospective population-based cohort study in Taiwan

The relationship between cancer and vitiligo has been explored but with inconsistent results. To examine the long-term cancer risk in vitiligo patients, we conducted a retrospective nationwide cohort study. From the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan, a total of 13,824 vitiligo patients were identified and matched with 55,296 reference subjects without vitiligo by age, gender, and propensity score estimated by major comorbidities from 1997 to 2013. Demographic characteristics and comorbidities were compared between these two groups. Incidence rate ratios and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated to examine cancer risks. The 16-year incidence rates of overall cancers were 621.06 (566.56–675.55) and 726.99 (697.24–756.74) per 100,000 person-years in the vitiligo and reference groups. Patients with vitiligo showed a significantly decreased risk of overall cancers [adjusted HR, 0.85; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.77 to 0.93, p < 0.001] compared with reference subjects without vitiligo after adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities, and treatments. The risks of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) were significantly reduced (adjusted HR 0.21, 95% CI 0.11–0.38, p < 0.001), as well as internal malignancies (adjusted HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81–0.99, p = 0.026). The results were consistent across different subgroups of patients, including male gender, ages more than 40 years, and those receiving long-term systemic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and phototherapies. Information related to phenotype, disease duration, vitiligo lesion sites, family history of vitiligo or cancer, occupation, and personal lifestyle was not included in the database. Vitiligo is associated with reduced risks of BCC and SCC, as well as internal malignancies.

COVID-19 case doubling time associated with non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination: A global experience

Background

Evidence has revealed that nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were effective in attenuating the spread of COVID-19. However, policymakers have encountered difficulty in identifying the most effective policies under different circumstances. This study investigated the relative effectiveness of different NPIs and vaccination in prolonging COVID-19 case doubling time (DT).

Methods

The study sample consisted of observations from 137 countries during 1 January 2020 to 13 June 2021. DT was calculated on a daily basis per country. Data were retrieved from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, World Development Indicators, and Worldwide Governance Indicators. To capture policy intervention dynamics, we combined a random-effect growth-curve model with nonstandard interrupted time series analysis. We also evaluated the association of policy measures with DT for different outbreak stages and levels of government effectiveness.

Results

Vaccine rollouts, workplace closures, and school closures were relatively effective. For each day that these measures were implemented, the DT increased by 1.96% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.63 to 3.29; P = 0.004), 1.41% (95% CI = 0.88 to 1.95%; P < 0.001) and 1.38% (95% CI = 0.95 to 1.81%; P < 0.001), respectively. Workplace and school closures were positively associated with DT at all stages; however, the associations weakened in later stages, where vaccine rollouts appeared to be most effective in prolonging DT (95% CI = 1.51% to 3.04%; P < 0.05). For countries with a high level of government effectiveness, most of the containment measures evaluated were effective; vaccine rollouts had the greatest effect size. For countries with medium or low levels of government effectiveness, only the closure of workplaces was consistently associated with prolonged DT.

Conclusions

The effectiveness of vaccine rollouts outweighed that of NPIs, especially in the later outbreak stages. However, vaccination was not associated with prolonged case DT in countries with lower levels of government effectiveness, probably due to low vaccine coverage. Among the NPIs examined, workplace closures were highly effective across all outbreak stages and levels of government effectiveness. Our findings suggest that mass vaccination is critical to reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, especially in countries where NPIs are less effective.

Fracture risks in patients with atopic dermatitis: A nationwide matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

The risk of osteoporosis has been explored in atopic dermatitis (AD). The long-term risk of fractures in patients with AD and the effects of various AD treatments on bone health remain to be elucidated.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the long-term risk of fractures in patients with AD.

METHODS

This nationwide matched cohort study was conducted using the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan for the period 1997 to 2013. A total of 36,855 patients with AD and 147,420 reference subjects without AD were identified. Demographic characteristics and comorbidities were compared, and cumulative incidence of fractures was evaluated. Adjusted hazard ratios for fracture risks of AD and various AD treatments were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 1518 patients (4.12%) in the AD cohort and 5579 patients (3.78%) in the reference cohort had fractures (P = .003). The mean ages were 22.6 years in both groups. The 16-year cumulative incidence of fractures in the AD cohort (8.043%) was significantly higher than that in the reference cohort (7.366%) (P = .002). Severe AD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.59) was independently associated with fractures. Other independent risk factors included exposure to topical (aHR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.05-1.39) or systemic (≥10 mg/d; aHR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.38-1.91) corticosteroids. Use of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (aHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.53-0.90) and phototherapy (aHR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.56-0.95) was associated with a lower risk of fractures. The results were consistent across sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Patients with AD have a higher incidence of fractures. Severe AD is independently associated with fractures.

COVID-19 vaccinations are associated with reduced fatality rates: Evidence from cross-country quasi-experiments

BACKGROUND

Scientists have demonstrated the efficacy of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in randomized controlled trials. However, the extent to which reductions in COVID-19 case fatality ratio (CFR) are attributable to mass vaccination in the real world remains unclear. This study evaluated the association of COVID-19 vaccine coverage with CFR on a global scale.

METHODS

The sample was a longitudinal data set of 90 countries over 25 weeks, from the first week of November 2020 to the third week of April 2021. CFR was measured in deaths per 100 COVID-19 confirmed cases; vaccine coverage was defined as the number of people who received at least one vaccine dose per 10 people in the total population. Data were retrieved from open-access databases, including Our World in Data and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. A country-level random effects model was used; a comprehensive set of variables for country characteristics and nonpharmaceutical interventions were included.

RESULTS

A 10% increase in vaccine coverage was associated with a 7.6% reduction in the CFR (95% confidence interval (CI = -12.6 to -2.7%, P = 0.002). This association was stronger in countries with more effective governments (-8.3%; 95% CI = -13.6 to -3.1%, P = 0.002) and higher transport infrastructure quality (-8.1%; 95% CI = -13.3 to -2.9%, P = 0.002). Moreover, the vaccine coverage was associated with a reduced CFR in a dose-dependent manner. When vaccine coverage achieved 0.8 to 1.6, 1.6 to 3.2 and ≥3.2 per 10 people, the CFR reduced by 12.7% (95 CI = -21.8 to -3.6%, P = 0.006), 21.2% (95 CI = -33.9 to -8.5%, P = 0.001) and 31.3% (95 CI = -51.5 to -11.0%, P = 0.002), respectively as compared with no vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide supporting evidence that vaccination is critical to preventing deaths among infected people. Vaccination programmes have yielded significant health benefits in certain countries. However, globally, a large gap remains between observed and achievable fatality reductions. Continuous improvement in vaccine coverage will be critical to transforming efficacious vaccines into desired health outcomes.

MO137DIFFERENCES IN GUT MICROBIOTA PROFILES AND FUNCTIONS BETWEEN END-STAGE KIDNEY DISEASE AND HEALTHY POPULATIONS

Background and Aims

Patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) are characterized by altered gut microbiota, impaired intestinal barrier function, and experienced gut microbiota-derived metabolites related to systemic complications. However, limited studies evaluated the microbial diversity and function in ESKD patients previously.

Method

Compared to age- and gender-matched subjects without kidney disease, 82 ESKD patients in the discovery cohort and 58 ESKD patients in the validation cohort were investigated for the microbial richness, biodiversity, gut dysbiosis, microbial composition differences, and the functional changes by gut metabolic module analysis. Bacterial derived free form protein-bound uremic toxins were analyzed by mass spectrometry and their association with microbial richness in ESKD patients was determined.

Results

Compared to controls, an increased α-diversity and distinct β-diversity were found in ESKD (Figure). The increase in α-diversity was correlated with protein-bound uremic toxins, particularly hippuric acid. A higher microbial dysbiosis index (MDI) was found in ESKD patients with the following enriched genera: Facealibacterium, Ruminococcus, Fusobacterium, Dorea, Anaerovorax, Sarcina, Akkermansia, Streptococcus, and Dysgonomonas. MDI at the genus level successfully differentiated between ESKD and controls in the discovery cohort (area under the curve [AUC] of 81.9%) and the validation cohort (AUC of 83.2%). Regarding functional enrichment analysis with gut metabolic modules, ESKD subjects presented with gut microbial function of increased saccharide and amino acid metabolism compared with matched controls.

Conclusion

An enriched but dysbiotic gut microbiota was presented in ESKD patients, in which the bacteria that were present increase amino acid metabolism linked to the production of protein-bound uremic toxins.

Infantile infection and antibiotic exposure in association with pediatric psoriasis development: A nationwide nested case-control study

BACKGROUND

Microbiol dysbiosis and antibiotic exposure have been implicated in the pathogenesis of pediatric inflammatory diseases.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the impacts of infantile infection and antibiotic exposure on pediatric psoriasis development.

METHODS

This is a nationwide nested case-control study. From the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan, a total of 1527 patients with pediatric psoriasis were identified and matched with 15,270 reference individuals without psoriasis, for the period of 2000 to 2017. Demographic characteristics and comorbidities were compared. Conditional stepwise logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine the associations.

RESULTS

The mean ages were 9.9 ± 3.7 years in both groups. Atopic dermatitis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.84-2.32) and family history of psoriasis, especially of the mother (aOR, 9.86; 95% CI, 6.89-14.10) or other first-degree relatives (aOR, 5.49; 95% CI, 3.91-7.70), were independently associated with pediatric psoriasis on multivariate analyses. Skin viral and bacterial infections (aOR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.13-1.62) and fungal infections (aOR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.44-2.04) in the first 2 years of life were significantly associated with pediatric psoriasis. Systemic antibiotic exposure was not. These results were consistent at different time periods across sensitivity analyses.

LIMITATION

Information about diet and lifestyle was not available.

CONCLUSION

Skin infections at an early age were associated with pediatric psoriasis development.

Atopic dermatitis does not increase the risk of inflammatory bowel disease: A nationwide cohort study

Coexistence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in atopic dermatitis (AD) patients has been reported. The long-term risk of IBD in AD patients remains unclear. Our aim for the study is to examine the long-term risk of IBD in AD patients. This is a nationwide cohort study. From the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan (1997-2013), a total of 36 400 AD patients were identified and matched with 364 000 reference subjects without AD by age, sex and number of hospital visits. Demographic characteristics and comorbidities were compared. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to examine the risk of IBD. The 16-year cumulative incidences of IBD were 0.047% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.040-0.054) and 0.047% (95% CI, 0.025-0.096) in non-AD and AD cohorts, respectively (P = 0.973). There were 17 cases of IBD (0.05%), including 10 ulcerative colitis and seven Crohn's disease, among AD patients compared with 169 IBD cases (0.05%) among controls (P > 0.999). Infections (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.71; 95% CI, 1.96-3.95; P < 0.001) and age (adjusted HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.03; P < 0.001) were independently associated with IBD, after adjusting for major comorbidities and conducting multivariate analyses. AD was not associated with IBD development. In conclusion, AD is not independently associated with IBD development.

Increasing Age and Nonliver Comorbidities in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B in Taiwan: A Nationwide Population-Based Analysis

BACKGROUND

Data from the USA suggest that chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients have aged in the past decade. However, the burden of nonliver comorbidities has not been well characterized in Taiwan, where CHB is very prevalent.

AIM

Our study examined this issue as it presented between 2001 and 2011 in Taiwan.

METHODS

This study identified adult patients (≥18 years) who were diagnosed with CHB in 2001, 2006, and 2011, from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). Changes in demographic characteristics, prevalence of nonliver comorbidities, and medication usage over the decade were examined. Non-CHB controls were adults without CHB diagnosis from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000 (LHID2000).

RESULTS

A total of 102,158, 252,809, and 338,200 eligible patients were identified in 2001, 2006, and 2011, respectively. The mean age significantly advanced from 45.4 to 52.3 years over the decade (p < 0.001). The prevalence of comorbidities, including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, stroke, chronic kidney disease, and bone fracture, significantly increased between 2001 and 2011 (all p < 0.001), as so were medication usage (all p < 0.001). Moreover, within each study period, compared to non-CHB controls, CHB patients were also older and more likely to have metabolic and cardiovascular comorbidities (all p < 0.001). In addition, the annual nonliver mortality in the CHB population significantly increased from 2001 to 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

Over a decade, the CHB population in Taiwan has aged with a higher nonliver comorbidity burden and increasing nonliver mortality. These findings may provide information to care providers in the monitoring and management of CHB patients.

Incidence, Factors, and Patient-Level Data for Spontaneous HBsAg Seroclearance: A Cohort Study of 11,264 Patients

INTRODUCTION

Spontaneous hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance, the functional cure of hepatitis B infection, occurs rarely. Prior original studies are limited by insufficient sample size and/or follow-up, and recent meta-analyses are limited by inclusion of only study-level data and lack of adjustment for confounders to investigate HBsAg seroclearance rates in most relevant subgroups. Using a cohort with detailed individual patient data, we estimated spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance rates through patient and virologic characteristics.

METHODS

We analyzed 11,264 untreated patients with chronic hepatitis B with serial HBsAg data from 4 North American and 8 Asian Pacific centers, with 1,393 patients with HBsAg seroclearance (≥2 undetectable HBsAg ≥6 months apart) during 106,192 person-years. The annual seroclearance rate with detailed categorization by infection phase, further stratified by hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) status, sex, age, and quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg), was performed.

RESULTS

The annual seroclearance rate was 1.31% (95% confidence interval: 1.25-1.38) and over 7% in immune inactive patients aged ≥55 years and with qHBsAg <100 IU/mL. The 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year cumulative rates were 4.74%, 10.72%, 18.80%, and 24.79%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, male (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.66), older age (41-55 years: aHR = 1.16; >55 years: aHR = 1.21), negative HBeAg (aHR = 6.34), and genotype C (aHR = 1.82) predicted higher seroclearance rates, as did lower hepatitis B virus DNA and lower qHBsAg (P < 0.05 for all), and inactive carrier state.

DISCUSSION

The spontaneous annual HBsAg seroclearance rate was 1.31%, but varied from close to zero to about 5% among most chronic hepatitis B subgroups, with older, male, HBeAg-negative, and genotype C patients with lower alanine aminotransferase and hepatitis B virus DNA, and qHBsAg independently associated with higher rates (see Visual Abstract, Supplementary Digital Content 2, http://links.lww.com/CTG/A367).

Association between inflammatory bowel disease and bullous pemphigoid: a population-based case-control study

The coexistence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and bullous pemphigoid (BP) has been reported. No large-scale study to date has explored the relationship between these diseases. This population-based case-control study examined the association between IBD and BP by using a nationwide database. A total of 5,263 BP patients and 21,052 age- and gender-, hospital visit number-matched controls were identified in the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan (1997-2013). Demographic characteristics and comorbidities including IBD were compared. Logistic regression was conducted to examine the predicting factors for BP. The mean age at diagnosis was 74.88 years and 54.3% of subjects were male. BP patients tended to have more cardiovascular risk factors, autoimmune and neurologic comorbidities, and hematologic cancers than matched controls. There were 20 cases of IBD (0.38%), mostly ulcerative colitis (N = 17, 0.32%) among BP patients, compared to 33 IBD cases (0.16%) among controls (p < 0.001). Ulcerative colitis was found to be significantly associated with BP [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.91-6.77, p < 0.001] on multivariate analysis. Treatment for IBD was not associated with BP development. Information about diet, lifestyle, alcohol consumption, and smoking habit was not available. We concluded that UC is independently associated with BP.

Nucleos(t)ide analogue continuous therapy associated with reduced adverse outcomes of chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy reduces the risk of disease progression in chronic hepatitis B virus-infected patients. However, the risk of liver decompensation, hepatic failure, and mortality after discontinuation of NA therapy remains unknown.

METHODS

Among 51,574 chronic hepatitis B patients who received NAs in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, we identified 8,631 patients who continued NA therapy (treatment cohort) and 8,631 propensity-score matched patients who stopped NA therapy after their initial 1.5 years treatment (off-therapy cohort) between October 1, 2003 and December 31, 2011. All study subjects were followed up from the index date, that is, the date 1.5 years after the first prescription of NA, until development of liver decompensation and hepatic failure, death or end of 18-month follow-up period.

RESULTS

Treatment cohort had significantly lower risks of liver decompensation (1.05%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81%-1.30% vs 2.13%; 95% CI, 1.82%-2.45%; p < 0.001), hepatic failure (0.35%; 95% CI, 0.21%-0.49% vs 0.63%; 95% CI, 0.46%-0.80%; p = 0.008) and overall mortality (1.67%; 1.37%-1.98% vs 2.44%; 95% CI, 2.10%-2.77%; p < 0.001) during the 18-month follow-up period. After adjusting for potential confounders, NA continuous therapy was associated with reduced risks of liver decompensation (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.47; 95% CI, 0.36-0.62, p < 0.001), hepatic failure (HR: 0.53; 95% CI, 0.33-0.86, p = 0.01) and overall mortality (HR: 0.67; 95% CI, 0.53-0.84, p = 0.001). The number needed to reduce one less disease progression and mortality was 47. The protective effect of NA continuous therapy was found in nearly all subgroups.

CONCLUSION

NA continuous therapy is associated with reduced risks of liver decompensation, hepatic failure, and overall mortality.

Factors Associated With Rates of HBsAg Seroclearance in Adults With Chronic HBV Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is a marker for clearance of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, but reported annual incidence rates of HBsAg seroclearance vary. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to provide more precise estimates of HBsAg seroclearance rates among subgroups and populations.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane library for cohort studies that reported HBsAg seroclearance in adults with chronic HBV infection with more than 1 year of follow-up and at least 1 repeat test for HBsAg. Annual and 5-, 10-, and 15-year cumulative incidence rates were pooled using a random effects model.

RESULTS

We analyzed 34 published studies (with 42,588 patients, 303,754 person-years of follow-up, and 3194 HBsAg seroclearance events), including additional and updated aggregated data from 19 studies. The pooled annual rate of HBsAg seroclearance was 1.02% (95% CI, 0.79-1.27). Cumulative incidence rates were 4.03% at 5 years (95% CI, 2.49-5.93), 8.16% at 10 years (95% CI, 5.24-11.72), and 17.99% at 15 years (95% CI, 6.18-23.24). There were no significant differences between the sexes. A higher proportion of patients who tested negative for HBeAg at baseline had seroclearance (1.33%; 95% CI, 0.76-2.05) than those who tested positive for HBeAg (0.40%; 95% CI, 0.25-0.59) (P < .01). Having HBsAg seroclearance was also associated with a lower baseline HBV DNA level (6.61 log₁₀ IU/mL; 95% CI, 5.94-7.27) vs not having HBsAg seroclearance (7.71 log₁₀ IU/mL; 95% CI, 7.41-8.02) (P < .01) and with a lower level of HBsAg at baseline (2.74 log₁₀ IU/mL; 95% CI, 1.88-3.60) vs not having HBsAg seroclearance (3.90 log₁₀ IU/mL, 95% CI, 3.73-4.06) (P < .01). HBsAg seroclearance was not associated with HBV genotype or treatment history. Heterogeneity was substantial across the studies (I² = 97.49%).

CONCLUSION

In a systematic review and meta-analysis, we found a low rate of HBsAg seroclearance in untreated and treated patients (pooled annual rate, approximately 1%). Seroclearance occurred mainly in patients with less active disease. Patients with chronic HBV infection should therefore be counseled on the need for lifelong treatment, and curative therapies are needed.

Systematic review and network meta-analysis: Comparative effectiveness of therapies for second-line Helicobacter pylori eradication

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The eradication rate of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) has been declining over the past decades. A rescue plan is needed for increasing populations with treatment failure. However, the optimum second-line eradication regimen remains inconclusive. We conducted a network meta-analysis to assess the comparative effectiveness of second-line H. pylori eradication therapies and determine the optimum regimen.

METHODS

We searched electronic databases from January 2005 to February 2018 for randomized controlled trials assessing the effectiveness of second-line regimens in patients with persistent H. pylori infection after first-line treatment. Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed to combine the direct and indirect evidence and to investigate the rank order of second-line therapies. We also appraised the quality of evidence using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation guidance.

RESULTS

Twenty-six trials with 3628 participants who received second-line eradication therapy were identified. All regimens showed pooled eradication rates < 90%. Compared with 7-day triple therapy, quinolone-based (odds ratio [OR] 4.29, 95% credible interval [CrI] 1.67-12.12, surface under the cumulative ranking [SUCRA] 0.95), non-quinolone-based bismuth-containing quadruple therapies for 10 days or more (OR 2.25, 95% CrI 1.10-4.62, SUCRA 0.78), and sequential therapy (OR 2.91, 95% CrI 1.16-7.65, SUCRA 0.66) showed significantly higher effectiveness. Overall, regimens with longer duration demonstrated higher eradication rates but higher rates of adverse events. More adverse events were reported in those patients treated with concomitant therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Quinolone-based bismuth-containing quadruple therapies for 10 days or more are the optimum second-line regimens for H. pylori eradication.

Fecal microbiota transplantation confers beneficial metabolic effects of diet and exercise on diet-induced obese mice

Diet and exercise are conventional methods for controlling body weight and are linked to alterations in gut microbiota. However, the associations of diet, exercise, and gut microbiota in the control of obesity remain largely unknown. In the present study, using 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing and fecal microbiota transplantation (FMT), normal fat diet (NFD), exercise and their combination resulted in improved metabolic profiles in comparison to sedentary lifestyle with high fat diet (HFD). Moreover, diet exerted more influence than exercise in shaping the gut microbiota. HFD-fed mice receiving FMT from NFD-exercised donors not only showed remarkably reduced food efficacy, but also mitigated metabolic profiles (p < 0.05). The transmissible beneficial effects of FMT were associated with bacterial genera Helicobacter, Odoribacter and AF12 and overrepresentation of oxidative phosphorylation and glycolysis genes. Our findings demonstrate that the beneficial effects of diet and exercise are transmissible via FMT, suggesting a potential therapeutic treatment for obesity.

Intestinal microbiota profiling and predicted metabolic dysregulation in psoriasis patients

OBJECTIVES

The intestinal microbiota has been known to involve in obesity and host immune response. We aimed to investigate the intestinal microbiota and potential genetic function in relation to clinical presentation in psoriasis patients.

METHODS

Faecal microbiota and predicted genetic function inferred from high-throughput 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing were analysed between psoriasis (n = 32) and age-, gender- and body mass index (BMI)-matched non-psoriasis subjects (n = 64), from a referral medical centre. The correlation between altered microbiota and disease activity, arthritis and systemic anti-psoriatic drugs was also investigated.

RESULTS

We observed a distinct faecal microbial community structure in psoriasis patients, with an increased abundance of phylum Firmicutes and decreased abundance of phylum Bacteroidetes, across different subgroup of subjects. Ruminococcus and Megasphaera, of the phylum Firmicutes, were the top-two genera of discriminant abundance in psoriasis. A number of functional genes and metabolic pathways involving bacterial chemotaxis and carbohydrate transport were predicted over-represented, whereas genes related to cobalamin and iron transport were predicted under-represented in faecal microbiota of psoriasis patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The distinct faecal microbial composition in psoriasis might be associated with altered transport of carbohydrate, cobalamin and iron, as well as chemotaxis.

Development of a scoring system to predict hepatocellular carcinoma in Asians on antivirals for chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) during antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is inadequately predicted by the scores built from untreated patients. We aimed at developing and validating a risk score to predict HCC in patients with CHB on entecavir or tenofovir treatment.

METHODS

This study analysed population-wide data from the healthcare databases in Taiwan and Hong Kong to identify patients with CHB continuously receiving entecavir or tenofovir. The development cohort included 23,851 patients from Taiwan; 596 (2.50%) of them developed HCC with a three-year cumulative incidence of 3.56% (95% CI 3.26-3.86%). The multivariable Cox proportional hazards model found that cirrhosis, age (cirrhosis and age interacted with each other), male sex, and diabetes mellitus were the risk determinants. These variables were weighted to develop the cirrhosis, age, male sex, and diabetes mellitus (CAMD) score ranging from 0 to 19 points. The score was externally validated in 19,321 patients from Hong Kong.

RESULTS

The c indices for HCC in the development cohort were 0.83 (95% CI 0.81-0.84), 0.82 (95% CI 0.81-0.84), and 0.82 (95% CI 0.80-0.83) at the first, second, and third years of therapy, respectively. In the validation cohort, the c indices were 0.74 (95% CI 0.71-0.77), 0.75 (95% CI 0.73-0.78), and 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.77) during the first three years, and 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.78) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.77) in the extrapolated fourth and fifth years, respectively. The predicted and observed probabilities of HCC were calibrated in both cohorts. A score <8 and >13 points identified patients at distinctly low and high risks.

CONCLUSIONS

The easily calculable CAMD score can predict HCC and may inform surveillance policy in patients with CHB during oral antiviral therapy.

LAY SUMMARY

This study analyses population-wide data from the healthcare systems in Taiwan and Hong Kong to develop and validate a risk score that predicts hepatocellular carcinoma during oral antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B. The easily calculable CAMD score requires only simple information (i.e. cirrhosis, age, male sex, and diabetes mellitus) at the baseline of treatment initiation. With a scoring range from 0 to 19 points, the CAMD score discriminates the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma with a concordance rate of around 75-80% during the first three years on therapy. The risk prediction can be extrapolated to five years on treatment with similar accuracy. Patients with a score <8 and >13 points were exposed to distinctly lower and higher risks, respectively.

Persistence of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus carriage in re-admitted patients

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to investigate the duration and risk factors for persistence of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization among known carriers who were re-admitted to hospital. MRSA carriage persisted in a high proportion of known carriers up to two years after their last date of discharge, and re-admission screening should be performed for at least this duration. A targeted screening approach should focus on older patients with a history of long inpatient stays, who are at higher risk of persistent carriage. Timely discharge planning is important in reducing the risk of persistent MRSA colonization among known carriers.

First-line Helicobacter pylori eradication therapies in countries with high and low clarithromycin resistance: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine the optimal regimen of different first-line Helicobacter pylori eradication therapies according to the clarithromycin resistance rate.

DESIGN

Electronic search for articles published between January 2005 and April 2016. Randomised, controlled trials that reported the effectiveness of first-line eradication therapies in treatment-naïve adults were included. Two independent reviewers performed articles screening and data extraction. Network and traditional meta-analyses were conducted using the random effect model. Subgroup analyses were performed to determine the ranking of regimens in countries with high (>15%) and low (<15%) clarithromycin resistance. Data including adverse events and therapeutic cure rate were also extracted and analysed.

RESULTS

117 trials (totally 32 852 patients) for 17 H. pylori eradication regimens were eligible for inclusion. Compared with 7-day clarithromycin-based triple therapy, sequential therapy (ST) for 14 days had the highest effectiveness (OR=3.74, 95% CrI 2.37 to 5.96). ST-14 (OR=6.53, 95% CrI 3.23 to 13.63) and hybrid therapy (HY) for 10 days or more (OR=2.85, 95% CrI 1.58 to 5.37) represented the most effective regimen in areas with high and low clarithromycin resistance, respectively. The effectiveness of standard triple therapy was below therapeutic eradication rate in most of the countries. Longer duration was associated with higher eradication rate, but with a higher risk of events that lead to discontinuation.

CONCLUSIONS

ST and HY appeared to be the most effective therapies in countries with high and low clarithromycin resistance, respectively. The clinical decision for optimal regimen can be supported by referring to the rank ordering of relative efficacies stratified by local eradication rates, antibiotic resistance and safety profile.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42015025445.

Prior gastroscopy and mortality in patients with gastric cancer: a matched retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The role of prior gastroscopy on the outcome of patients with gastric cancer remains unknown. This study determines the association between intervals of prior gastroscopy and mortality in patients with gastric cancer.

METHODS

We identified 20,066 newly diagnosed patients with gastric cancer in the National Health Insurance Database of Taiwan between 2002 and 2007. After we excluded patients who had gastroscopies performed ≤6 months before the diagnosis of cancer, patients were matched into 3 cohorts according to the intervals of prior gastroscopy: 6 months to 2 years (<2 Y cohort), 2 to 5 years (2-5 Y cohort), and none within the previous 5 years (>5 Y cohort). The 3 cohorts were matched for age, curative treatment for gastric cancer, Helicobacter pylori therapy, and propensity scores comprised of sex, comorbidities, and concomitant medication usage. The primary outcome is the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

After matching, we identified 1286, 1286, and 5144 patients for the <2 Y, 2 to 5 Y, and >5 Y cohorts. Compared with the >5 Y cohort, the HR of all-cause mortality for the <2 Y and 2 to 5 Y cohorts was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.89; P < .001) and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.76-0.91; P < .001), respectively. The HRs of gastric cancer-specific mortality were significantly lower in the <2 Y (0.80; 95% CI, 0.71-0.91; P < .001) and 2 to 5 Y cohorts (0.83; 95% CI, 0.75-0.93; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with gastric cancer who had a gastroscopy performed within 5 years before the cancer diagnosis had significantly lower mortality. Our results may support the role of repeat endoscopic examination or surveillance endoscopy in selected patients.

Association between ultrasonography screening and mortality in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Current guidelines recommend screening for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in high-risk populations. However, the effectiveness of screening in reducing mortality has been challenged. In addition, it is unclear which subgroups benefit most from HCC screening.

DESIGN

This nationwide cohort study identified a total of 52,823 newly diagnosed HCC patients between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2007. These HCC patients were classified into the following cohorts according to the time intervals in which they received ultrasonography screening: 0-6 months (6M), 7-12 months (12M), 13-24 months (24M), 25-36 months (36M) and not screened within 3 years (never screened). The chance to receive curative therapy and 5-year cumulative mortalities were calculated after adjusting for lead-time bias.

RESULTS

Chances to receive curative therapy among the 6M, 12M, 24M, 36M and never screened cohorts were 24.3% (95% CI 23.7% to -24.9%), 26.9% (95% CI 25.7% to 28.2%), 22.9% (95% CI 21.8% to 24.1%), 21.3% (95% CI 19.9% to 22.8%) and 18.3% (95% CI 17.8% to 18.8%), respectively. Compared with the 6M cohort, adjusted HRs of mortality for the 12M, 24M, 36M and never screened cohorts were 1.11 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.15), 1.23 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.28), 1.31 (95% CI 1.26 to 1.37) and 1.47 (95% CI 1.43 to 1.51) (all p<0.001), respectively. On multivariable subgroup analyses, the associations between shorter screening intervals and better survival were observed in nearly all subgroups, especially in younger patients, patients without diabetes and patients with hepatitis B infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Shorter ultrasonography screening intervals are associated with reduced overall mortality in HCC patients in a dose-dependent manner.

Gastric microbiota and predicted gene functions are altered after subtotal gastrectomy in patients with gastric cancer

Subtotal gastrectomy (i.e., partial removal of the stomach), a surgical treatment for early-stage distal gastric cancer, is usually accompanied by highly selective vagotomy and Billroth II reconstruction, leading to dramatic changes in the gastric environment. Based on accumulating evidence of a strong link between human gut microbiota and host health, a 2-year follow-up study was conducted to characterize the effects of subtotal gastrectomy. Gastric microbiota and predicted gene functions inferred from 16S rRNA gene sequencing were analyzed before and after surgery. The results demonstrated that gastric microbiota is significantly more diverse after surgery. Ralstonia and Helicobacter were the top two genera of discriminant abundance in the cancerous stomach before surgery, while Streptococcus and Prevotella were the two most abundant genera after tumor excision. Furthermore, N-nitrosation genes were prevalent before surgery, whereas bile salt hydrolase, NO and N2O reductase were prevalent afterward. To our knowledge, this is the first report to document changes in gastric microbiota before and after surgical treatment of stomach cancer.

Association between antiviral treatment and extrahepatic outcomes in patients with hepatitis C virus infection

OBJECTIVE

To elucidate the association between antiviral therapy and extrahepatic outcomes in individuals infected with HCV.

METHODS

This nationwide cohort study screened 293,480 Taiwanese residents with HCV infection and excluded those with substantial comorbidity. A total of 12,384 eligible patients who had received pegylated interferon plus ribavirin between 1 October 2003 and 31 December 2010 were enrolled in the treated cohort; they were matched 1 : 2 with 24,768 untreated controls in the propensity score and post-diagnosis treatment-free period. The incidences of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), acute coronary syndrome (ACS), ischaemic stroke and catastrophic autoimmune diseases were calculated after adjustment for competing mortality.

RESULTS

The treated and untreated cohorts were followed up for a mean (±SD) duration of 3.3 (±2.5) and 3.2 (±2.4) years, respectively, until 31 December 2011. The calculated 8-year cumulative incidences of ESRD, ACS, ischaemic stroke and autoimmune catastrophes between treated and untreated patients were 0.15% vs. 1.32% (p<0.001), 2.21% vs. 2.96% (p=0.027), 1.31% vs. 1.76% (p=0.001) and 0.57% vs. 0.49% (p=0.816), respectively. Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression revealed that antiviral treatment was associated with lower risks of ESRD (HR 0.15; 95% CI 0.07 to 0.31; p<0.001), ACS (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.62 to 0.97; p=0.026) and ischaemic stroke (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.46 to 0.83; p=0.001), but unrelated to autoimmune catastrophes. These favourable associations were invalid in incompletely treated patients with duration <16 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

Antiviral treatment for HCV is associated with improved renal and circulatory outcomes, but unrelated to catastrophic autoimmune diseases.

Abstract 255: Addition of biologic therapy to traditional disease-modifying anti-inflammatory drugs and the risk of cancer in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a nationwide cohort study

Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with certain types of cancer. The add-on effect of biologics on cancer occurrence in long-term RA remains unknown. We aimed to investigate the relative risk of cancer development among RA patients combining biologics with traditional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs).

Methods: We conducted a nationwide cohort study between March 2003 and December 2010 using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). A total of 42,263 patients with RA who received long term DMARDs were identified. The risk of newly diagnosed cancer was compared between patients taking biologics in addition to DMARDs (biologics cohort, N=4,119) and four-fold propensity score-matched control patients taking nonbiologic DMARDs only (biologics-naive cohort, N=16,476). Cumulative incidences and hazard ratios (HR) were calculated after adjusting for competing mortality. Multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards model.

Results: The incidence rates of cancer among biologics and biologics-naive cohorts were 2.09 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-2.86) and 3.25 (95% CI 2.76-3.74) per 1000 person-years, respectively (p=0.03). On modified Cox proportional hazards analysis, the risk of cancer was significantly reduced in subjects in biologics cohort (adjusted HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.40-0.94, p=0.025) in comparison with subjects in biologics-naive cohort, after adjusting for age, gender, disease duration, major co-morbidities, and prior use of DMARDs and corticosteroids. The effect of biologics was consistent across all multivariate stratified analyses; and the association between biologics use and cancer risk was independent of dosage of concomitant use of non-biological DMARDs.

Conclusion: RA patients taking biologics plus long term traditional DMARDs therapy are associated with a lower risk of cancer when compared with RA patients taking traditional DMARDs alone.

Citation Format: Yi-Ju Chen, Chun-Ying Wu, Der-Yuan Chen, Jui-Lung Shen, Hsiu J. Ho, Han-Nan Liu, Yun-Ting Chang, Ken-Nan Kuo. Addition of biologic therapy to traditional disease-modifying anti-inflammatory drugs and the risk of cancer in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a nationwide cohort study. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 105th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2014 Apr 5-9; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2014;74(19 Suppl):Abstract nr 255. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2014-255

The risk of cancer in patients with rheumatoid arthritis taking tumor necrosis factor antagonists: a nationwide cohort study

Introduction

The association between cancer and use of biologic therapy among rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients remains controversial. We aimed to compare the relative risk of cancer development between RA patients taking tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα) antagonists and those taking nonbiologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (nbDMARDs).

Methods

We conducted a nationwide cohort study between 1997 and 2011 using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The risk of newly diagnosed cancer was compared between patients starting TNF-α antagonists (biologics cohort) and matched subjects taking nbDMARDs only (nbDMARDs cohort). Cumulative incidences and hazard ratios (HR) were calculated after adjusting for competing mortality. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was calculated for cancer risk. Multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

We compared 4426 new users of TNF-α antagonists and 17704 users of nbDMARDs with similar baseline covariate characteristics. The incidence rates of cancer among biologics and nbDMARDs cohorts were 5.35 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.23 to 6.46) and 7.41 (95% CI 6.75 to 8.07) per 1000 person-years, respectively. On modified Cox proportional hazards analysis, the risk of cancer was significantly reduced in subjects in biologics cohort (adjusted HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.80, P < .001), after adjusting for age, gender, disease duration, major co-morbidities, and prior use of DMARDs and corticosteroids. However, there was an increased risk for hematologic cancers in biologics cohort, yet without statistical significance. The effect of biologics was consistent across all multivariate stratified analyses and the association between biologics use and cancer risk was independent of dosage of concomitant nbDMARDs.

Conclusion

These findings suggested that RA patients taking TNF-α antagonist are associated with a lower risk of cancer, but not for hematologic cancers, than RA patients taking nbDMARDs alone.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13075-014-0449-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Association of nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy with reduced risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Treatment for hepatitis B virus infection reduces the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the long-term protective effects for subgroups of patients with chronic hepatitis B are unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective nationwide cohort study using data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (from January 1, 1997, through December 31, 2010). Cumulative incidences were calculated and multivariable analyses were carried out after adjusting for competing mortality. Propensity scores were used to match 21,595 patients with chronic hepatitis B who received nucleoside analogue therapy for at least 90 days (treated cohort) with 21,595 untreated patients with chronic hepatitis B (controls), who received hepatoprotectants for at least 90 days. Data were collected from the treated cohort for a mean period of 3.46 years and from controls for 5.24 years.

RESULTS

The treated cohort had a significantly lower 7-year incidence of HCC (7.32%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.77%-7.87%) than controls (22.7%; 95% CI, 22.1%-23.3%; P < .001). After adjusting for competing mortality and other confounders, nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment was associated with a reduced risk of HCC, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.37 (95% CI, 0.34-0.39; P < .001). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the association between nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment and reduced risk of HCC. Age, sex, cirrhosis, and diabetes mellitus modified this association.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on a retrospective, nationwide study in Taiwan, nucleoside analogue therapy use is associated with reduced risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection.

Antiviral treatment for hepatitis C virus infection is associated with improved renal and cardiovascular outcomes in diabetic patients

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is causally associated with insulin resistance and diabetes mellitus. This population-based cohort study aimed to investigate whether antiviral therapy for HCV infection was associated with improved clinical outcomes related to diabetes. From the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, 2,267,270 Taiwanese residents diagnosed with diabetes mellitus were screened for eligibility. HCV infection was defined by a specific diagnosis code and measurement of serum antibody. After excluding patients with serious comorbidity, we enrolled a total of 1,411 eligible patients who received pegylated interferon plus ribavirin (treated cohort), and matched them 1:1 with 1,411 untreated controls by propensity scores (untreated cohort). We also matched the treated cohort 1:4 with 5,644 diabetic patients without HCV infection (uninfected cohort). Participants were followed up for the occurrence of endstage renal disease (ESRD), ischemic stroke, and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) after receiving antiviral treatment or the corresponding calendar date. From 2003 to 2011, the 8-year cumulative incidences of ESRD in the treated, untreated, and uninfected cohorts were 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.3-2.0%), 9.3% (95% CI, 5.9-12.7%), and 3.3% (95% CI, 2.3-4.3%), respectively (P < 0.001); those of stroke were 3.1% (95% CI, 1.1-5.0%), 5.3% (95% CI, 3.0-7.5%), and 6.1% (95% CI, 4.8-7.4%), respectively (P = 0.01); and those for ACS were 4.1% (95% CI, 2.1-6.1%), 6.6% (95% CI, 3.7-9.5%), and 7.4% (95% CI, 5.9-9.0%), respectively (P = 0.05). As compared with the untreated cohort, antiviral treatment was associated with multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios of 0.16 (95% CI, 0.07-0.33%) for ESRD, 0.53 (95% CI, 0.30-0.93) for ischemic stroke, and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.39-1.06) for ACS.

CONCLUSION

Antiviral treatment for HCV infection is associated with improved renal and cardiovascular outcomes in diabetic patients.

Postoperative peg-interferon plus ribavirin is associated with reduced recurrence of hepatitis C virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) frequently recurs after surgical resection. This population-based research aimed to investigate the association between postoperative antiviral treatment and risk of recurrent HCC in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. By analyzing the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, we initially screened a total of 100,938 patients diagnosed with HCC for the first time between October 2003 and December 2010. Among 2,237 antiviral-naïve HCV-infected patients with curatively resected HCC, there were 213 patients receiving antiviral treatment with pegylated interferon plus ribavirin for 16 weeks or more after surgery (treated cohort). These treated patients were matched 1:4 with 852 controls who were never treated for HCV infection (untreated cohort) by age, gender, cirrhosis, and the elapsed time between surgery and antiviral therapy. Cumulative incidences of and hazard ratios for recurrent HCC were calculated after adjusting for competing mortality. The recurrence rate of HCC was significantly lower in the treated than untreated cohort, with 52.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 42.0-62.2%) and 63.9% (95% CI, 58.9-68.8%) after 5 years of follow-up, respectively (P = 0.001). The number needed to treat for one fewer recurrent HCC at 5 years was 8. The association between postoperative antiviral treatment and risk of recurrent HCC was independent of adjustment for multiple covariates, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.50-0.83). Stratified analyses revealed that the attenuation in recurrence risk was greater in patients younger than 60 years and those without cirrhosis or diabetes.

CONCLUSION

Postoperative pegylated interferon plus ribavirin is associated with reduced recurrence of HCC in patients with HCV infection. Age, liver cirrhosis, and diabetes mellitus appear to modify this association.

Association between nucleoside analogues and risk of hepatitis B virus–related hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence following liver resection

CONTEXT

Tumor recurrence is a major issue for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following curative liver resection.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between nucleoside analogue use and risk of tumor recurrence in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)--related HCC after curative surgery.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A nationwide cohort study between October 2003 and September 2010. Data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Among 100 938 newly diagnosed HCC patients, we identified 4569 HBV-related HCC patients who received curative liver resection for HCC between October 2003 and September 2010.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The risk of first tumor recurrence was compared between patients not taking nucleoside analogues (untreated cohort, n = 4051) and patients taking nucleoside analogues (treated cohort, n = 518). Cumulative incidences and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated after adjusting for competing mortality.

RESULTS

The treated cohort had a higher prevalence of liver cirrhosis when compared with the untreated cohort (48.6% vs 38.7%; P < .001), but lower risk of HCC recurrence (n = 106 [20.5%] vs n = 1765 [43.6%]; P < .001), and lower overall death (n = 55 [10.6%] vs n = 1145 [28.3%]; P < .001). After adjusting for competing mortality, the treated cohort had a significantly lower 6-year HCC recurrence rate (45.6%; 95% CI, 36.5%-54.6% vs untreated, 54.6%; 95% CI, 52.5%-56.6%; P < .001). Six-year overall mortalities for treated cohorts were 29.0% (95% CI, 20.0%-38.0%) and for untreated 42.4% (95% CI, 40.0%-44.7%; P < .001). On modified Cox regression analysis, nucleoside analogue use (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.55-0.81; P < .001), statin use (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.53-0.87; P = .002), and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or aspirin use (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73-0.88; P < .001) were independently associated with a reduced risk of HCC recurrence. Multivariable stratified analyses verified the association in all subgroups of patients, including those who were noncirrhotic (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.42-0.76) and diabetic (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.31-0.89).

CONCLUSION

Nucleoside analogue use was associated with a lower risk of HCC recurrence among patients with HBV-related HCC after liver resection.

Parametric modeling of cellular state transitions as measured with flow cytometry

Background

Gradual or sudden transitions among different states as exhibited by cell populations in a biological sample under particular conditions or stimuli can be detected and profiled by flow cytometric time course data. Often such temporal profiles contain features due to transient states that present unique modeling challenges. These could range from asymmetric non-Gaussian distributions to outliers and tail subpopulations, which need to be modeled with precision and rigor.

Results

To ensure precision and rigor, we propose a parametric modeling framework StateProfiler based on finite mixtures of skew t-Normal distributions that are robust against non-Gaussian features caused by asymmetry and outliers in data. Further, we present in StateProfiler a new greedy EM algorithm for fast and optimal model selection. The parsimonious approach of our greedy algorithm allows us to detect the genuine dynamic variation in the key features as and when they appear in time course data. We also present a procedure to construct a well-fitted profile by merging any redundant model components in a way that minimizes change in entropy of the resulting model. This allows precise profiling of unusually shaped distributions and less well-separated features that may appear due to cellular heterogeneity even within clonal populations.

Conclusions

By modeling flow cytometric data measured over time course and marker space with StateProfiler, specific parametric characteristics of cellular states can be identified. The parameters are then tested statistically for learning global and local patterns of spatio-temporal change. We applied StateProfiler to identify the temporal features of yeast cell cycle progression based on knockout of S-phase triggering cyclins Clb5 and Clb6, and then compared the S-phase delay phenotypes due to differential regulation of the two cyclins. We also used StateProfiler to construct the temporal profile of clonal divergence underlying lineage selection in mammalian hematopoietic progenitor cells.

A framework for analytical characterization of monoclonal antibodies based on reactivity profiles in different tissues

MOTIVATION

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are among the most powerful and important tools in biology and medicine. MAb development is of great significance to many research and clinical applications. Therefore, objective mAb classification is essential for categorizing and comparing mAb panels based on their reactivity patterns in different cellular species. However, typical flow cytometric mAb profiles present unique modeling challenges with their non-Gaussian features and intersample variations. It makes accurate mAb classification difficult to do with the currently used kernel-based or hierarchical clustering techniques.

RESULTS

To address these challenges, in the present study we developed a formal two-step framework called mAbprofiler for systematic, parametric characterization of mAb profiles. Further, we measured the reactivity of hundreds of new antibodies in diverse tissues using flow cytometry, which we successfully classified using mAbprofiler. First, mAbprofiler fits a mAb's flow cytometric histogram with a finite mixture model of skew t distributions that is robust against non-Gaussian features, and constructs a precise, smooth and mathematically rigorous profile. Then it performs novel curve clustering of the fitted mAb profiles using a skew t mixture of non-linear regression model that can handle intersample variation. Thus, mAbprofiler provides a new framework for identifying robust mAb classes, all well defined by distinct parametric templates, which can be used for classifying new mAb samples. We validated our classification results both computationally and empirically using mAb profiles of known classification.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

A demonstration code in R is available at the journal website. The R code implementing the full framework is available from the author website - http://amath.nchu.edu.tw/www/teacher/tilin/software

CONTACT

saumyadipta_pyne@dfci.harvard.edu

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Tyrosine phosphorylation of cofilin at Y68 by v-Src leads to its degradation through ubiquitin-proteasome pathway

Cofilin is a major regulator of actin dynamics involved in the regulation of cell spreading and migration through its actin depolymerizing and severing activities. V-Src is an activated Src tyrosine kinase and a potent oncogene known to phosphorylate a variety of cellular proteins in cell transformation process including altered cell adhesion, spreading and migration. Recently, it has been suggested that cofilin is a potential substrate of v-Src (Rush et al., 2005). Here, we show direct tyrosine phosphorylation of cofilin by v-Src and identify Y68 as the major phosphorylation site. Cofilin phosphorylation at Y68 did not change its activity per se, but induced increased ubiquitination of cofilin and its degradation through the proteosome pathway. Furthermore, the negative effect of cofilin on cellular F-actin contents was inhibited by co-expression of v-Src, whereas that of cofilin mutant Y68F (Y68 mutated to F) was not affected, suggesting that v-Src-mediated cofilin phosphorylation at Y68 is required for degradation of cofilin in vivo. Lastly, inhibition of cell spreading by v-Src was rescued partially by co-expression of cofilin, and to a greater extent by the Y68F mutant which is not subjected to v-Src induced degradation through phosphorylation, suggesting that v-Src mediated changes in cell spreading is, at least in part, through inhibiting the function of cofilin via phosphorylating it at Y68. Together, these results suggest a novel mechanism by which cofilin is regulated by v-Src through tyrosine phosphorylation at Y68 that triggers degradation of cofilin via ubiquitination-proteosome pathway and consequently inhibits cofilin activity in reducing cellular F-actin contents and cell spreading.