In-vitro method and model to estimate methane emissions from liquid manure management on pig and dairy farms in four countries

Methane (CH4) emissions from manure management on livestock farms are a key source of greenhouse gas emissions in some regions and for some production systems, and the opportunities for mitigation may be significant if emissions can be adequately documented. We investigated a method for estimating CH4 emissions from liquid manure (slurry) that is based on anaerobic incubation of slurry collected from commercial farms. Methane production rates were used to derive a parameter of the Arrhenius temperature response function, lnA', representing the CH4 production potential of the slurry at the time of sampling. Results were used for parameterization of an empirical model to estimate annual emissions with daily time steps, where CH4 emissions from individual sources (barns, outside storage tanks) can be calculated separately. A monitoring program was conducted in four countries, i.e., Denmark, Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands, during a 12-month period where slurry was sampled to represent barn and outside storage on finishing pig and dairy farms. Across the four countries, lnA' was higher in pig slurry compared to cattle slurry (p < 0.01), and higher in slurry from barns compared to outside storage (p < 0.01). In a separate evaluation of the incubation method, in-vitro CH4 production rates were comparable with in-situ emissions. The results indicate that lnA' in barns increases with slurry age, probably due to growth or adaptation of the methanogenic microbial community. Using lnA' values determined experimentally, empirical models with daily time steps were constructed for finishing pig and dairy farms and used for scenario analyses. Annual emissions from pig slurry were predicted to be 2.5 times higher than those from cattle slurry. Changing the frequency of slurry export from the barn on the model pig farm from 40 to 7 d intervals reduced total annual CH4 emissions by 46 %; this effect would be much less on cattle farms with natural ventilation. In a scenario with cattle slurry, the empirical model was compared with the current IPCC methodology. The seasonal dynamics were less pronounced, and annual CH4 emissions were lower than with the current methodology, which calls for further investigations. Country-specific models for individual animal categories and point sources could be a tool for assessing CH4 emissions and mitigation potentials at farm level.

Challenges of accounting nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural crop residues

Crop residues are important inputs of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) to soils and thus directly and indirectly affect nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions. As the current inventory methodology considers N inputs by crop residues as the sole determining factor for N2 O emissions, it fails to consider other underlying factors and processes. There is compelling evidence that emissions vary greatly between residues with different biochemical and physical characteristics, with the concentrations of mineralizable N and decomposable C in the residue biomass both enhancing the soil N2 O production potential. High concentrations of these components are associated with immature residues (e.g., cover crops, grass, legumes, and vegetables) as opposed to mature residues (e.g., straw). A more accurate estimation of the short-term (months) effects of the crop residues on N2 O could involve distinguishing mature and immature crop residues with distinctly different emission factors. The medium-term (years) and long-term (decades) effects relate to the effects of residue management on soil N fertility and soil physical and chemical properties, considering that these are affected by local climatic and soil conditions as well as land use and management. More targeted mitigation efforts for N2 O emissions, after addition of crop residues to the soil, are urgently needed and require an improved methodology for emission accounting. This work needs to be underpinned by research to (1) develop and validate N2 O emission factors for mature and immature crop residues, (2) assess emissions from belowground residues of terminated crops, (3) improve activity data on management of different residue types, in particular immature residues, and (4) evaluate long-term effects of residue addition on N2 O emissions.

Monitoring of carbon-water fluxes at Eurasian meteorological stations using random forest and remote sensing

Simulating the carbon-water fluxes at more widely distributed meteorological stations based on the sparsely and unevenly distributed eddy covariance flux stations is needed to accurately understand the carbon-water cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. We established a new framework consisting of machine learning, determination coefficient (R2), Euclidean distance, and remote sensing (RS), to simulate the daily net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) and water flux (WF) of the Eurasian meteorological stations using a random forest model or/and RS. The daily NEE and WF datasets with RS-based information (NEE-RS and WF-RS) for 3774 and 4427 meteorological stations during 2002-2020 were produced, respectively. And the daily NEE and WF datasets without RS-based information (NEE-WRS and WF-WRS) for 4667 and 6763 meteorological stations during 1983-2018 were generated, respectively. For each meteorological station, the carbon-water fluxes meet accuracy requirements and have quasi-observational properties. These four carbon-water flux datasets have great potential to improve the assessments of the ecosystem carbon-water dynamics.

Effects of exogenous organic/inorganic nitrogen addition on carbon pool distribution and transformation in grassland soil

AIMS

Increases in nitrogen (N) deposition may significantly affect the organic carbon (OC) cycle in soil. The inconsistent findings of the influence of added N on soil OC pools highlight the need of quantifying responses of the OC pool distribution to N addition. Moreover, the influence of N addition with a mixture of organic and inorganic N on OC pool distribution and stabilization in grassland soil remains unclear.

METHODS

We carried out a five-year field experiment with adding N to examine the effects of different types of N addition on soil OC pool distribution and transformation in a meadow steppe in Inner Mongolia. We applied N in the ratios of inorganic N (IN) and organic N (ON) at 10:0 (N1), 7:3 (N2), 5:5 (N3), 3:7 (N4), 0:10 (N5), and 0:0 (CK), respectively. We measured OC content in bulk soil, particulate organic matter (POM), and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) fractions. Additionally, a short-term soil incubation was conducted to assess potential OC mineralization.

RESULTS

Our study showed no significant effect on soil organic carbon content of different ratios of IN/ON addition. N addition reduced microbial biomass C/N ratio, the fraction of mineral-associated organic matter, cumulative CO₂ emission, and microbial metabolic quotient. Compared with ON addition alone, IN addition alone showed a stronger effect on the C in different soil fractions and soil OC mineralization. The particulate organic matter (POM) fraction was more sensitive to N addition than the mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) fraction.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the contribution of N in organic and inorganic forms affecting OC pool distribution with different turnover rates should be considered when assessing the effects of N addition types on soil OC processes in grassland.

Simulation of winter wheat response to variable sowing dates and densities in a high-yielding environment

Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change. Here, we explore the performance of a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effect of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components, on two sites located in a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The experiment was conducted for 6 years and provided 50 combinations of sowing date, sowing density and growing season. We show that the MME simulates seasonal growth of wheat well under standard sowing conditions, but fails under early sowing and high sowing rates. The comparison between observed and simulated in-season fraction of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) for early sown wheat shows that the MME does not capture the decrease of crop above ground biomass during winter months due to senescence. Models need to better account for tiller competition for light, nutrients, and water during vegetative growth, and early tiller senescence and tiller mortality, which are exacerbated by early sowing, high sowing densities, and warmer winter temperatures.

Global systematic review with meta-analysis reveals yield advantage of legume-based rotations and its drivers

Diversified cropping systems, especially those including legumes, have been proposed to enhance food production with reduced inputs and environmental impacts. However, the impact of legume pre-crops on main crop yield and its drivers has never been systematically investigated in a global context. Here, we synthesize 11,768 yield observations from 462 field experiments comparing legume-based and non-legume cropping systems and show that legumes enhanced main crop yield by 20%. These yield advantages decline with increasing N fertilizer rates and crop diversity of the main cropping system. The yield benefits are consistent among main crops (e.g., rice, wheat, maize) and evident across pedo-climatic regions. Moreover, greater yield advantages (32% vs. 7%) are observed in low- vs. high-yielding environments, suggesting legumes increase crop production with low inputs (e.g., in Africa or organic agriculture). In conclusion, our study suggests that legume-based rotations offer a critical pathway for enhancing global crop production, especially when integrated into low-input and low-diversity agricultural systems.

Potential for the adoption of measures to reduce N2O emissions from crop residues in Denmark

Crop residues represent a climate change dilemma: they can promote carbon (C) sequestration, but they may also stimulate emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N₂O). Although there are crop residue management measures to reduce N₂O emissions, N₂O reductions achieved at national scale with these measures have been seldom studied, and how farmers' willingness to accept the measures constrains their potential remains largely unknown. Using Denmark as a case study, we combined a survey (completed by 592 farmers) and national data to assess the practical potential and obstacles for the successful implementation of management strategies to reduce N₂O emissions from crop residues. Crop residue removal (particularly from vegetables and cover crops) and nitrification inhibitors were identified as effective in reducing N₂O emissions from a biophysical perspective. If all aboveground crop residues from vegetables and cover crops were removed, N₂O emissions could be reduced by 0.181 Gg N₂ON, corresponding to 11% of the total N₂O emissions from crop residues nationally. However, a low percentage of farmers would be willing to remove crop residues from the field, especially for vegetables and cover crops (25%), in connection to the possible short- to medium-term reduction in C sequestration. Similarly, use of nitrification inhibitors would reduce emissions by 0.247 Gg N₂ON, corresponding to 15% of the total residue N₂O emissions, and only 37% of all farmers would accept their use. Our results highlight that farmer' preferences for the adoption of measures can constrain the use of the few available effective mitigation options. Better knowledge dissemination and advisory services are crucial to address this challenge; farmers may be motivated to remove aboveground crop residues by highlighting the proportionally more important contribution of belowground residues to C sequestration, and that aboveground residues may have commercial value (biorefining, biogas, biofuel), although these options need further development.

A review and meta-analysis of mitigation measures for nitrous oxide emissions from crop residues

Crop residues are of crucial importance to maintain or even increase soil carbon stocks and fertility, and thereby to address the global challenge of climate change mitigation. However, crop residues can also potentially stimulate emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N₂O) from soils. A better understanding of how to mitigate N₂O emissions due to crop residue management while promoting positive effects on soil carbon is needed to reconcile the opposing effects of crop residues on the greenhouse gas balance of agroecosystems. Here, we combine a literature review and a meta-analysis to identify and assess measures for mitigating N₂O emissions due to crop residue application to agricultural fields. Our study shows that crop residue removal, shallow incorporation, incorporation of residues with C:N ratio > 30 and avoiding incorporation of residues from crops terminated at an immature physiological stage, are measures leading to significantly lower N₂O emissions. Other practices such as incorporation timing and interactions with fertilisers are less conclusive. Several of the evaluated N₂O mitigation measures implied negative side-effects on yield, soil organic carbon storage, nitrate leaching and/or ammonia volatilization. We identified additional strategies with potential to reduce crop residue N₂O emissions without strong negative side-effects, which require further research. These are: a) treatment of crop residues before field application, e.g., conversion of residues into biochar or anaerobic digestate, b) co-application with nitrification inhibitors or N-immobilizing materials such as compost with a high C:N ratio, paper waste or sawdust, and c) use of residues obtained from crop mixtures. Our study provides a scientific basis to be developed over the coming years on how to increase the sustainability of agroecosystems though adequate crop residue management.

Interactive effects of straw management, tillage, and a cover crop on nitrous oxide emissions and nitrate leaching from a sandy loam soil

Minimum tillage, residue recycling and the use of cover crops are key elements of conservation agriculture that play important roles in soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. This study determined the long-term effects of tillage practice (conventional ploughing vs. direct seeding), straw management (retained vs. removed), and the presence of a cover crop (CC; fodder radish in this study) on nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, nitrate (NO₃^-) leaching, and soil mineral N dynamics between October 2019 and June 2020. In the factorial experiment with eight treatment combinations, cumulative N₂O emissions ranged from 0.04 to 0.8 kg N ha^-1, whereas NO₃^- leaching varied between 4 and 28 kg N ha^-1. The study did not find effects of straw retention on NO₃^- leaching or N₂O emissions. No-till reduced N₂O emissions by on average 46% compared to ploughing. Fodder radish reduced NO₃^- leaching by 80-84%, and there was little N₂O emission in the presence of the cover crop; however, after termination in spring there was a flush of N₂O, cumulative N₂O-N averaged 0.1 and 0.5 kg N ha^-1 without and with a cover crop. With information about long-term soil C retention from straw and fodder radish, an overall greenhouse (GHG) balance was calculated for each system. Without straw retention after harvest, there was always a positive net GHG emission, and the indirect N₂O emission from NO₃^- leaching was similar to, or greater than direct N₂O emissions. However, in the presence of fodder radish, the direct N₂O emissions after termination were much more important than indirect emissions, and negated the C input from fodder radish. Direct seeding, straw retention and the use of a cover crop showed positive effects on N retention and/or GHG balance and could substantially improve the carbon footprint of agroecosystems on sandy soil in a wet temperate climate.

Global wheat production could benefit from closing the genetic yield gap

Global food security requires food production to be increased in the coming decades. The closure of any existing genetic yield gap (Y_ig) by genetic improvement could increase crop yield potential and global production. Here we estimated present global wheat Y_ig, covering all wheat-growing environments and major producers, by optimizing local wheat cultivars using the wheat model Sirius. The estimated mean global Y_ig was 51%, implying that global wheat production could benefit greatly from exploiting the untapped global Y_ig through the use of optimal cultivar designs, utilization of the vast variation available in wheat genetic resources, application of modern advanced breeding tools, and continuous improvements of crop and soil management.

Predicting field N2O emissions from crop residues based on their biochemical composition: A meta-analytical approach

Crop residue incorporation is a common practice to increase or restore organic matter stocks in agricultural soils. However, this practice often increases emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N₂O). Previous meta-analyses have linked various biochemical properties of crop residues to N₂O emissions, but the relationships between these properties have been overlooked, hampering our ability to predict N₂O emissions from specific residues. Here we combine comprehensive databases for N₂O emissions from crop residues and crop residue biochemical characteristics with a random-meta-forest approach, to develop a predictive framework of crop residue effects on N₂O emissions. On average, crop residue incorporation increased soil N₂O emissions by 43% compared to residue removal, however crop residues led to both increases and reductions in N₂O emissions. Crop residue effects on N₂O emissions were best predicted by easily degradable fractions (i.e. water soluble carbon, soluble Van Soest fraction (NDS)), structural fractions and N returned with crop residues. The relationship between these biochemical properties and N₂O emissions differed widely in terms of form and direction. However, due to the strong correlations among these properties, we were able to develop a simplified classification for crop residues based on the stage of physiological maturity of the plant at which the residue was generated. This maturity criteria provided the most robust and yet simple approach to categorize crop residues according to their potential to regulate N₂O emissions. Immature residues (high water soluble carbon, soluble NDS and total N concentration, low relative cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin fractions, and low C:N ratio) strongly stimulated N₂O emissions, whereas mature residues with opposite characteristics had marginal effects on N₂O. The most important crop types belonging to the immature residue group - cover crops, grasslands and vegetables - are important for the delivery of multiple ecosystem services. Thus, these residues should be managed properly to avoid their potentially high N₂O emissions.

The Possibility of Consensus Regarding Climate Change Adaptation Policies in Agriculture and Forestry among Stakeholder Groups in the Czech Republic

As ongoing research efforts contribute to elucidating the consequences of climate change as well as adaptation and mitigation options, aligning the current research knowledge with stakeholder opinions and perceptions remains critical for adopting effective climate change policies. This paper utilizes an interactive survey to (1) address the aforementioned gap in studies involving three groups of stakeholders and opinion makers and (2) perform a comparative primary study of the climate change assumptions, risk perceptions, policy preferences, observations, and knowledge of Czech farmers, governmental policy-makers and researchers. This study shows that the stakeholder groups agree that the climate is clearly changing, attribute this change mostly to man-made causes and expect the negative effects to either prevail or be unevenly geographically distributed. The large majority of all three groups consider unmitigated climate change a major threat even by 2050 and agree that preparing in advance is the best sectoral strategy. Importantly, while investment in adaptation measures is considered the most efficient tool for accelerating the implementation of adaptation measures, the CAP and EU rules (as valid in 2016) are believed to hinder such measures. The results of this study have ramifications for the wider region of Central Europe.

Land-use and agriculture in Denmark around year 1900 and the quest for EU Water Framework Directive reference conditions in coastal waters

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) aims to protect the ecological status of coastal waters. To establish acceptable boundaries between good and moderate ecological status, the WFD calls for reference conditions practically undisturbed by human impact. For Denmark, the nitrogen (N) concentrations present around year 1900 have been suggested to represent reference conditions. As the N load of coastal waters relates closely to runoff from land, any reduction in load links to agricultural activity. We challenge the current use of historical N balances to establish WFD reference conditions and initiate an alternative approach based on parish-level land-use statistics collected 1896/1900 and N concentrations in root zone percolates from experiments with year 1900-relevant management. This approach may be more widely applicable for landscapes with detailed historic information on agricultural activity. Using this approach, we find an average N concentration in root zone percolates that is close to that of current agriculture. Thus, considering Danish coastal waters to be practically unaffected by human activity around year 1900 remains futile as 75% of the land area was subject to agricultural activity with a substantial potential for N loss to the environment. It appears unlikely that the ecological state of coastal waters around year 1900 may serve as WFD reference condition.

Long-term nitrogen loading alleviates phosphorus limitation in terrestrial ecosystems

Increased human-derived nitrogen (N) deposition to terrestrial ecosystems has resulted in widespread phosphorus (P) limitation of net primary productivity. However, it remains unclear if and how N-induced P limitation varies over time. Soil extracellular phosphatases catalyze the hydrolysis of P from soil organic matter, an important adaptive mechanism for ecosystems to cope with N-induced P limitation. Here we show, using a meta-analysis of 140 studies and 668 observations worldwide, that N stimulation of soil phosphatase activity diminishes over time. Whereas short-term N loading (≤5 years) significantly increased soil phosphatase activity by 28%, long-term N loading had no significant effect. Nitrogen loading did not affect soil available P and total P content in either short- or long-term studies. Together, these results suggest that N-induced P limitation in ecosystems is alleviated in the long-term through the initial stimulation of soil phosphatase activity, thereby securing P supply to support plant growth. Our results suggest that increases in terrestrial carbon uptake due to ongoing anthropogenic N loading may be greater than previously thought.

Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea

This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.

Soil carbon loss with warming: New evidence from carbon-degrading enzymes

Climate warming affects soil carbon (C) dynamics, with possible serious consequences for soil C stocks and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the mechanisms underlying changes in soil C storage are not well understood, hampering long-term predictions of climate C-feedbacks. The activity of the extracellular enzymes ligninase and cellulase can be used to track changes in the predominant C sources of soil microbes and can thus provide mechanistic insights into soil C loss pathways. Here we show, using meta-analysis, that reductions in soil C stocks with warming are associated with increased ratios of ligninase to cellulase activity. Furthermore, whereas long-term (≥5 years) warming reduced the soil recalcitrant C pool by 14%, short-term warming had no significant effect. Together, these results suggest that warming stimulates microbial utilization of recalcitrant C pools, possibly exacerbating long-term climate-C feedbacks.

Long-term modelling of crop yield, nitrogen losses and GHG balance in organic cropping systems

Although organic cropping systems are promoted for their environmental benefits, little is known about their long-term impact on nitrogen (N) fate in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. In this paper, we analyze two long-term experiments: DOK in Switzerland (39-yr) and Foulum organic in Denmark (19-yr). Four treatments were considered in each experiment: two conventional treatments with (CONFYM) or without manure (CONMIN), organic with manure (BIOORG) and unfertilized treatment (NOFERT) at DOK; conventional (CGL-CC+IF) and three organic treatments, one with cover crops only (OGL+CC-M) and two including cover crops and grass-clover with (OGC+CC+M) or without manure (OGC+CC-M), at Foulum. STICS model was used to simulate crop production, N surplus, nitrate leaching, gaseous N losses and changes in soil organic N. It was calibrated in the conventional treatments and tested in organic systems. The crop production, N surplus and soil organic N stocks were satisfactorily predicted. The mean N surplus greatly differed between treatments at DOK, from -58 (NOFERT) to +21 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 (CONFYM), but only from -9 (OGL+CC-M) to +21 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 (OGC+CC+M) in Foulum. Soil N pools declined continuously in both sites and treatments at a rate varying from -18 to -78 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1, depending on fertilization and crop rotation. The decline was consistent with the observed N surpluses. Although not all simulations could be tested against field observations and despite of prediction uncertainties, simulations confirm the hypothesis that environmental performances resulting from C and N cycles depend more on specificities of individual than nominal treatments. Significant correlations appeared between long-term N surplus and soil N storage and between total N fertilization and total N gaseous losses. Results showed in both experiments that arable organic systems do not systematically have lower N surplus and N losses than conventional ones, providing opportunity for increasing N use efficiency of these systems.

Nitrate leaching from suction cup data: Influence of method of drainage calculation and concentration interpolation

The use of suctions cups is a common practice for estimating nitrate (NO₃ -N) leaching under agricultural systems despite the various uncertainties associated with the approach. One major uncertainty is water flux, which is required for calculating NO₃ -N leaching loads from measured concentrations. Another problem is the interpolation of NO₃ -N concentrations between measurement days. We investigated how differences in water flux, obtained from two different models (EVACROP and APSIM), affect NO₃ -N leaching loads. The effect of interpolation of NO₃ -N concentrations based on days or drainage was also addressed. The models were set up according to a 2-yr field experiment with spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L. Quinch) with different levels of N fertilization rates on a loamy soil at Flakkebjerg, Denmark. Due to small differences in measured NO₃ -N concentrations between sequential samplings, the method of interpolation did not significantly affect NO₃ -N leaching in the two periods investigated. Although there is no standard against which leaching losses from different approaches can be tested, results highlight that the modeling of water uptake as affected by N supply influences the amount of drainage and thus calculated NO₃ -N leaching. Therefore, for experiments with varying N fertilization levels, the APSIM model, which accounts for N nutrition on crop water use, is likely more accurate. For common fertilization rates, the simpler EVACROP seems appropriate. Thus, when using suction cup data for testing models or for evaluating mitigation options for nitrate leaching, the use of an appropriate model for estimating water fluxes is important.

Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.

Nitrate leaching losses from two Baltic Sea catchments under scenarios of changes in land use, land management and climate

Pollution with excess nutrients deteriorate the water quality of the Baltic Sea. The effect of combined land use and climate scenarios on nitrate leaching and nitrogen (N) loads to surface waters from two Baltic Sea catchments (Norsminde in Denmark and Kocinka in Poland) was explored using different models; the NLES and Daisy models for nitrate leaching, and MIKE SHE or MODFLOW/MT3DMS for N transport. Three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5) defined change in land use and agricultural activities. The climate change scenarios covered 2041-2060 compared with 1991-2010 under RCP8.5, applying four different climate models. Increases in predicted N-load from climate change vary from 20 to 60% depending on climate model. SSPs moderate these N-load changes with small changes for SSP1 to large increases for SSP5, with greater increases for Norsminde than Kocinka due to land use differences. This stresses needs for new measures and governing schemes to meet sustainability targets.

Spatially differentiated regulation: Can it save the Baltic Sea from excessive N-loads?

The Baltic Sea Action Plan and the EU Water Framework Directive both require substantial additional reductions of nutrient loads (N and P) to the marine environment. Focusing on nitrogen, we present a widely applicable concept for spatially differentiated regulation, exploiting the large spatial variations in the natural removal of nitrate in groundwater and surface water. By targeting mitigation measures towards areas where nature's own capacity for removal is low, spatially differentiated regulation can be more cost-effective than the traditional uniform regulation. We present a methodology for upscaling local modelling results on targeted measures at field scale to Baltic Sea drainage basin scale. The paper assesses the potential gain and discusses key challenges related to implementation of spatially differentiated regulation, including the need for more scientific knowledge, handling of uncertainties, practical constraints related to agricultural practice and introduction of co-governance regimes.

Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world's entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.

Effects of changes in land use and climate on aquatic ecosystems: Coupling of models and decomposition of uncertainties

To analyse the potential future ecological state of estuaries located in the temperate climate (here exemplified with the Odense Fjord estuary, Denmark), we combined end-of-the-century climate change projections from four different climate models, four contrasting land use scenarios ("Agriculture for nature", "Extensive agriculture", "High-tech agriculture" and "Market driven agriculture") and two different eco-hydrological models. By decomposing the variance of the model-simulated output from all scenario and model combinations, we identified the key sources of uncertainties of these future projections. There was generally a decline in the ecological state of the estuary in scenarios with a warmer climate. Strikingly, even the most nature-friendly land use scenario, where a proportion of the intensive agricultural area was converted to forest, may not be enough to counteract the negative effects of a future warmer climate on the ecological state of the estuary. The different land use scenarios were the most significant sources of uncertainty in the projections of future ecological state, followed, in order, by eco-hydrological models and climate models, albeit all three sources caused high variability in the simulated outputs. Therefore, when projecting the future state of aquatic ecosystems in a global warming context, one should at the very least consider to evaluate an ensemble of land use scenarios (nutrient loads) but ideally also include multiple eco-hydrological models and climate change projections. Our study may set precedence for future attempts to predict and quantify uncertainties of model and model input ensembles, as this will likely be key elements in future tools for decision-making processes.

Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe

Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO₂ offering no yield benefit in these years.

Drivers of crop yield variability require quantification, and historical records can help in improving understanding. Here, Webber et al. report that drought stress will remain a key driver of yield losses in wheat and maize across Europe, and benefits from CO₂ will be limited in low-yielding years.

Potential benefits of farm scale measures versus landscape measures for reducing nitrate loads in a Danish catchment

To comply with the EU Water Framework Directive, Denmark must further reduce the nitrate (N)-load to marine ecosystems from agricultural areas. Under the anticipated future spatially targeted regulation, the required N-load reductions will differ between catchments, and these are expected to be mitigated by a combination of land and water management measures. Here, we explored how the expected N-load reduction target of 38% for a Danish catchment (River Odense) could be achieved through a combination of farm and landscape measures. These include: (a) N-leaching reduction through changing the crop rotation and applying cover crops, (b) enhancing N-reduction through (re)establishment of wetlands, and (c) reducing N-leaching through spatially targeting of set-aside to high N-load areas. Changes in crop rotations were effective in reducing N-leaching by growing crops with a longer growing season and by allowing a higher use of cover crops. A combination of wetlands and changes in crop rotations were needed for reaching the N-load reduction target without use of set-aside. However, not all combinations of wetlands and crop rotation changes achieved the required N-load reduction, resulting in a need for targeted set-aside, implying a need for balancing measures at farm and landscape scale to maximize N load reduction while minimizing loss of productive land. The effectiveness of farm scale measures is affected by farm and soil types as well as by N-reduction in groundwater, while the possibilities for using wetlands for decreasing the N-load depends on landscape features, allowing the establishment of wetlands connected to streams and rivers.

Simulation of Soil Organic Carbon Effects on Long-Term Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum) Production Under Varying Fertilizer Inputs

Soil organic carbon (SOC) has a vital role to enhance agricultural productivity and for mitigation of climate change. To quantify SOC effects on productivity, process models serve as a robust tool to keep track of multiple plant and soil factors and their interactions affecting SOC dynamics. We used soil-plant-atmospheric model viz. DAISY, to assess effects of SOC on nitrogen (N) supply and plant available water (PAW) under varying N fertilizer rates in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Denmark. The study objective was assessment of SOC effects on winter wheat grain and aboveground biomass accumulation at three SOC levels (low: 0.7% SOC; reference: 1.3% SOC; and high: 2% SOC) with five nitrogen rates (0-200 kg N ha^-1) and PAW at low, reference, and high SOC levels. The three SOC levels had significant effects on grain yields and aboveground biomass accumulation at only 0-100 kg N ha^-1 and the SOC effects decreased with increasing N rates until no effects at 150-200 kg N ha^-1. PAW had significant positive correlation with SOC content, with high SOC retaining higher PAW compared to low and reference SOC. The mean PAW and SOC correlation was given by PAW% = 1.0073 × SOC% + 15.641. For the 0.7-2% SOC range, the PAW increase was small with no significant effects on grain yields and aboveground biomass accumulation. The higher winter wheat grain and aboveground biomass was attributed to higher N supply in N deficient wheat production system. Our study suggested that building SOC enhances agronomic productivity at only 0-100 kg N ha^-1. Maintenance of SOC stock will require regular replenishment of SOC, to compensate for the mineralization process degrading SOC over time. Hence, management can maximize realization of SOC benefits by building up SOC and maintaining N rates in the range 0-100 kg N ha^-1, to reduce the off-farm N losses depending on the environmental zones, land use and the production system.

Reducing uncertainty of estimated nitrogen load reductions to aquatic systems through spatially targeting agricultural mitigation measures using groundwater nitrogen reduction

The need to further abate agricultural nitrate (N)-loadings to coastal waters in Denmark represents the main driver for development of a new spatially targeted regulation that focus on locating N-mitigation measures in agricultural areas with high N-load. This targeting makes use of the spatial variation across the landscape in natural N-reduction (denitrification) of leached nitrate in the groundwater and surface water systems. A critical basis for including spatial targeting in regulation of N-load in Denmark is the uncertainty associated with the effect of spatially targeting measures, since the effect will be critically affected by uncertainty in the quantification of the spatial variation in N-reduction. In this study, we used 30 equally plausible N-reduction maps, at 100 m grid and sub-catchment resolutions, for the 85-km² groundwater dominated Norsminde catchment in Denmark, applying set-aside as the measure on high N-load areas to reach a N-load reduction target of 20%. The uncertainty on these N-reduction maps resulted in uncertainty on the estimated N-load and on the required set-aside area. We tested several methods for spatially targeting set-aside that took into account the uncertainty on set-aside area and developed methods to reduce uncertainty on the estimated N-load reductions. These methods includes application of set-aside based on each individual N-reduction map compared to a mean N-reduction map, using spatial frequency of high N-load and using spatial frequency of low N-reduction. The results revealed that increasing the ensemble size for averaging the N-reduction maps would decrease the uncertainty on the estimated set-aside area with a stable effect when using an ensemble of 15 or more maps. The spatial resolution of the groundwater N-reduction map is essential for the effectiveness of set-aside, but uncertainty of the finer spatial resolution of N-reduction is greater compared to sub-catchment scale, and application of a spatially targeted strategy with uncertain N-reduction maps will result in incorrect set-aside area and uncertain estimations of N-load reductions. To reduce the uncertainty on estimated N-load reductions, this study finds the method of set-aside application based on spatial frequency of high N-load to be more effective than other methods tested.

Spatially differentiated strategies for reducing nitrate loads from agriculture in two Danish catchments

Nutrient loss from agriculture is the largest source of diffuse water pollution in Denmark. To reduce nutrient loads a number of solutions have been implemented, but this has been insufficient to achieve the environmental objectives without unacceptable repercussions for agricultural production. This has substantiated the need to develop a new approach to achieve nitrogen (N) load reduction to the aquatic environments with lower costs to farmers. The new approach imply targeting N leaching mitigation to those parts of the landscape which contribute most to the N-loadings. This would involve either reducing the source loading or enhancing the natural reduction (denitrification) of N after it is leached from the root zone of agricultural crops. In this study, a new method of spatially differentiated analysis for two Danish catchments (Odense and Norsminde) was conducted that reach across the individual farms to achieve selected N-load reduction targets. It includes application of cover crops within current crop rotations, set-a-side application on high N-load areas, and changes in agricultural management based on maps of N-reduction available for two different spatial scales, considering soil type and farm boundaries as spatial constraints. In summary, the results revealed that considering spatial constraints for changes in agricultural management will affect the effectiveness of N-load reduction, and the highest N-load reduction was achieved where less constraints were considered. The results also showed that the range of variation in land use, soil types, and N-reduction potential influence the reduction of N-loadings that can originate from critical source areas. The greater the spatial variation the greater the potential for N load reduction through targeting of measures. Therefore, the effectiveness of spatially differentiated measures in term of set-a-side area in Odense catchment were relatively greater compared to Norsminde catchment. The results also showed that using a fine spatial N-reduction map provides greater potential for N load reductions compared to using sub-catchment scale N-reduction maps.

Author Correction: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Nature Plants 3, 17102 (2017); published online 17 July 2017; corrected online 27 September 2017.

Potential benefits of a spatially targeted regulation based on detailed N-reduction maps to decrease N-load from agriculture in a small groundwater dominated catchment

Denmark must further decrease the N-load to coastal waters from agricultural areas to comply with the Baltic Sea Action Plan and the EU Water Framework Directive. A new spatially targeted regulation is under development that focuses on locating N-mitigation measures in areas with low natural reduction of nitrate (N-reduction). A key tool in this respect is N-reduction maps showing how much N is removed by natural reduction processes, i.e. the ratio between the N-load out of the catchment and the N-leaching from the root zone for each spatial unit within the catchment. For the 85 km² groundwater dominated Norsminde catchment in Denmark we have analysed the potential benefits of a spatially targeted regulation and how its efficiency is affected by uncertainty in the N-reduction map. Our results suggest that there are potential benefits of implementing a spatially targeted regulation compared to a spatially uniform regulation. The total N-load at the catchment outlet can be decreased up to 8% by relocating the existing agricultural practice according to the N-reduction map and thus without decrease fertilization inputs. A further decrease in N-load can be obtained by identifying target areas with low N-reduction where N-mitigation measures must be applied. Uncertainty on the N-reduction map is found to lower the efficiency of spatially targeted regulation. This uncertainty can be lowered substantially by using the mean of an ensemble of N-reduction maps. The uncertainty decreases with coarser spatial resolution of the N-reduction map, but this will at the same time decrease the benefit from spatially targeted regulation.

Erratum: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.102.

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

Review of scenario analyses to reduce agricultural nitrogen and phosphorus loading to the aquatic environment

Nutrient loadings of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to aquatic environments are of increasing concern globally for managing ecosystems, drinking water supply and food production. There are often multiple sources of these nutrients in the landscape, and the different hydrological flow patterns within stream or river catchments have considerable influence on nutrient transport, transformation and retention processes that all eventually affect loadings to vulnerable aquatic environments. Therefore, in order to address options to reduce nutrient loadings, quantitative assessment of their effects in real catchments need to be undertaken. This involves setting up scenarios of the possible nutrient load reduction measures and quantifying their impacts via modelling. Over the recent two decades there has been a great increase in the use of scenario-based analyses of strategies to combat excessive nutrient loadings. Here we review 130 published papers extracted from Web of Science for 1995 to 2014 that have applied models to analyse scenarios of agricultural impacts on nutrients loadings at catchment scale. The review shows that scenario studies have been performed over a broad range of climatic conditions, with a large focus on measures targeting land cover/use and land management for reducing the source load of N and P in the landscape. Some of the studies considered how to manage the flows of nutrients, or how changes in the landscape may be used to influence both flows and transformation processes. Few studies have considered spatially targeting measures in the landscape, and such studies are more recent. Spatially differentiated options include land cover/use modification and application of different land management options based on catchments characteristics, cropping conditions and climatic conditions. Most of the studies used existing catchment models such as SWAT and INCA, and the choice of the models may also have influenced the setup of the scenarios. The use of stakeholders for designing scenarios and for communication of results does not seem to be a widespread practice, and it would be recommendable for future scenario studies to have a more in-depth involvement of stakeholders for the elaboration and interpretation of scenarios, in particular to enhance their relevance for farm and catchment management and to foster better policies and incentives.

Consolidating soil carbon turnover models by improved estimates of belowground carbon input

World soil carbon (C) stocks are third only to those in the ocean and earth crust, and represent twice the amount currently present in the atmosphere. Therefore, any small change in the amount of soil organic C (SOC) may affect carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Dynamic models of SOC help reveal the interaction among soil carbon systems, climate and land management, and they are also frequently used to help assess SOC dynamics. Those models often use allometric functions to calculate soil C inputs in which the amount of C in both above and below ground crop residues are assumed to be proportional to crop harvest yield. Here we argue that simulating changes in SOC stocks based on C input that are proportional to crop yield is not supported by data from long-term experiments with measured SOC changes. Rather, there is evidence that root C inputs are largely independent of crop yield, but crop specific. We discuss implications of applying fixed belowground C input regardless of crop yield on agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation and accounting.

Nitrate leaching, yields and carbon sequestration after noninversion tillage, catch crops, and straw retention

Crop management factors, such as tillage, rotation, and straw retention, need to be long-term to allow conclusions on effects on crop yields, nitrate leaching, and carbon sequestration. In 2002, two field experiments, each including four cash crop rotations, were established on soils with 9 and 15% clay, under temperate, coastal climate conditions. Direct drilling and harrowing to two different depths were compared to plowing with respect to yield, nitrate N leaching, and carbon sequestration. For comparison of yields across rotations, grain and seed dry matter yields for each crop were converted to grain equivalents (GE). Leaching was compared to yields by calculating yield-scaled leaching (YSL, g N kg GE), and N balances were calculated as the N input in manure minus the N output in products removed from the fields. Direct drilling reduced yields, but no effect on leaching was found. Straw retention did not significantly increase yields, nor did it reduce leaching, while fodder radish ( L.) as a catch crop was capable of reducing nitrate leaching to a low level. Thus, YSL of winter wheat ( L.) was higher than for spring barley ( L.) grown after fodder radish due to the efficient catch crop. Soil organic carbon (SOC) did not increase significantly after 7 yr of straw incorporation or noninversion tillage. There was no correlation between N balances calculated for each growing season and N leaching measured in the following percolation period.

Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

Inorganic nitrogen leaching from organic and conventional rice production on a newly claimed calciustoll in Central Asia

Characterizing the dynamics of nitrogen (N) leaching from organic and conventional paddy fields is necessary to optimize fertilization and to evaluate the impact of these contrasting farming systems on water bodies. We assessed N leaching in organic versus conventional rice production systems of the Ili River Valley, a representative aquatic ecosystem of Central Asia. The N leaching and overall performance of these systems were measured during 2009, using a randomized block experiment with five treatments. PVC pipes were installed at soil depths of 50 and 180 cm to collect percolation water from flooded organic and conventional paddies, and inorganic N (NH₄-N+NO₃-N) was analyzed. Two high-concentration peaks of NH₄-N were observed in all treatments: one during early tillering and a second during flowering. A third peak at the mid-tillering stage was observed only under conventional fertilization. NO₃-N concentrations were highest at transplant and then declined until harvest. At the 50 cm soil depth, NO₃-N concentration was 21–42% higher than NH₄-N in percolation water from organic paddies, while NH₄-N and NO₃-N concentrations were similar for the conventional and control treatments. At the depth of 180 cm, NH₄-N and NO₃-N were the predominant inorganic N for organic and conventional paddies, respectively. Inorganic N concentrations decreased with soil depth, but this attenuation was more marked in organic than in conventional paddies. Conventional paddies leached a higher percentage of applied N (0.78%) than did organic treatments (0.32–0.60%), but the two farming systems leached a similar amount of inorganic N per unit yield (0.21–0.34 kg N Mg⁻¹ rice grains). Conventional production showed higher N utilization efficiency compared to fertilized organic treatments. These results suggest that organic rice production in the Ili River Valley is unlikely to reduce inorganic N leaching, if high crop yields similar to conventional rice production are to be maintained.

Effects of climate and nutrient load on the water quality of shallow lakes assessed through ensemble runs by PCLake

Complex ecological models are used to predict the consequences of anticipated future changes in climate and nutrient loading for lake water quality. These models may, however, suffer from nonuniqueness in that various sets of model parameter values may yield equally satisfactory representations of the system being modeled, but when applied in future scenarios these sets of values may divert considerably in their simulated outcomes. Compilation of an ensemble of model runs allows us to account for simulation variability arising from model parameter estimates. Thus, we propose a new approach for aquatic ecological models creating a more robust prediction of future water quality. We used our ensemble approach in an application of the widely used PCLake model for Danish shallow Lake Arreskov, which during the past two decades has demonstrated frequent shifts between turbid and clear water states. Despite marked variability, the span of our ensemble runs encapsulated 70–90% of the observed variation in lake water quality. The model exercise demonstrates that future warming and increased nutrient loading lead to lower probability of a clear water, vegetation-rich state and greater likelihood of cyanobacteria dominance. In a 6.0°C warming scenario, for instance, the current nutrient loading of nitrogen and phosphorus must be reduced by about 75% to maintain the present ecological state of Lake Arreskov, but even in a near-future 2.0°C warming scenario, a higher probability of a turbid, cyanobacteria-dominated state is predicted. As managers may wish to determine the probability of achieving a certain ecological state, our proposed ensemble approach facilitates new ways of communicating future stressor impacts.

Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change

The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985-2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site-year-variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1-3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1-3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied.

Shifts in comparative advantages for maize, oat and wheat cropping under climate change in Europe

Climate change is anticipated to affect European agriculture, including the risk of emerging or re-emerging feed and food hazards. Indirectly, climate change may influence such hazards (e.g. the occurrence of mycotoxins) due to geographic shifts in the distribution of major cereal cropping systems and the consequences this may have for crop rotations. This paper analyses the impact of climate on cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat on a 50-km square grid across Europe (45-65°N) and provides model-based estimates of the changes in cropping shares in response to changes in temperature and precipitation as projected for the time period around 2040 by two regional climate models (RCM) with a moderate and a strong climate change signal, respectively. The projected cropping shares are based on the output from the two RCMs and on algorithms derived for the relation between meteorological data and observed cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat. The observed cropping shares show a south-to-north gradient, where maize had its maximum at 45-55°N, oat had its maximum at 55-65°N, and wheat was more evenly distributed along the latitudes in Europe. Under the projected climate changes, there was a general increase in maize cropping shares, whereas for oat no areas showed distinct increases. For wheat, the projected changes indicated a tendency towards higher cropping shares in the northern parts and lower cropping shares in the southern parts of the study area. The present modelling approach represents a simplification of factors determining the distribution of cereal crops, and also some uncertainties in the data basis were apparent. A promising way of future model improvement could be through a systematic analysis and inclusion of other variables, such as key soil properties and socio-economic conditions, influencing the comparative advantages of specific crops.

Can agricultural cultivation methods influence the healthfulness of crops for foods?

The aim of the current study was to investigate if there are any health effects of long-term consumption of organically grown crops using a rat model. Crops were retrieved over two years from a long-term field trial at three different locations in Denmark, using three different cultivation systems (OA, organic based on livestock manure; OB, organic based on green manure; and C, conventional with mineral fertilizers and pesticides) with two field replicates. The cultivation system had an impact on the nutritional quality, affecting γ-tocopherol, some amino acids, and fatty acid composition. Additionally, the nutritional quality was affected by harvest year and location. However, harvest year and location rather than cultivation system affected the measured health biomarkers. In conclusion, the differences in dietary treatments composed of ingredients from different cultivation systems did not lead to significant differences in the measured health biomarkers, except for a significant difference in plasma IgG levels.

Watershed land use effects on lake water quality in Denmark

Mitigating nutrient losses from anthropogenic nonpoint sources is today of particular importance for improving the water quality of numerous freshwater lakes worldwide. Several empirical relationships between land use and in-lake water quality variables have been developed, but they are often weak, which can in part be attributed to lack of detailed information about land use activities or point sources. We examined a comprehensive data set comprising land use data, point-source information, and in-lake water quality for 414 Danish lakes. By excluding point-source-influenced lakes (n = 210), the strength in relationship (R2) between in-lake total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and the proportion of agricultural land use in the watershed increased markedly, from 10-12% to 39-42% for deep lakes and from 10-12% to 21-23% for shallow lakes, with the highest increase for TN. Relationships between TP and agricultural land use were even stronger for lakes with rivers in their watershed (55%) compared to lakes without (28%), indicating that rivers mediate a stronger linkage between landscape activity and lake water quality by providing a "delivery" mechanism for excess nutrients in the watershed. When examining the effect of different near-freshwater land zones in contrast to the entire watershed, relationships generally improved with size of zone (25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 m from the edge of lake and streams) but were by far strongest using the entire watershed. The proportion of agricultural land use in the entire watershed was best in explaining lake water quality, both relative to estimated nutrient surplus at agricultural field level and near-lake land use, which somewhat contrasts typical strategies of management policies that mainly target agricultural nutrient applications and implementation of near-water buffer zones. This study suggests that transport mechanisms within the whole catchment are important for the nutrient export to lakes. Hence, the whole watershed should be considered when managing nutrient loadings to lakes, and future policies should ideally target measures that reduce the proportion of cultivated land in the watershed to successfully improve lake water quality.

Developments in greenhouse gas emissions and net energy use in Danish agriculture - how to achieve substantial CO(2) reductions?

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are a significant contributor to total Danish emissions. Consequently, much effort is currently given to the exploration of potential strategies to reduce agricultural emissions. This paper presents results from a study estimating agricultural GHG emissions in the form of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide (including carbon sources and sinks, and the impact of energy consumption/bioenergy production) from Danish agriculture in the years 1990-2010. An analysis of possible measures to reduce the GHG emissions indicated that a 50-70% reduction of agricultural emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 is achievable, including mitigation measures in relation to the handling of manure and fertilisers, optimization of animal feeding, cropping practices, and land use changes with more organic farming, afforestation and energy crops. In addition, the bioenergy production may be increased significantly without reducing the food production, whereby Danish agriculture could achieve a positive energy balance.

Effects of farm heterogeneity and methods for upscaling on modelled nitrogen losses in agricultural landscapes

The aim of this study is to illustrate the importance of farm scale heterogeneity on nitrogen (N) losses in agricultural landscapes. Results are exemplified with a chain of N models calculating farm-N balances and distributing the N-surplus to N-losses (volatilisation, denitrification, leaching) and soil-N accumulation/release in a Danish landscape. Possible non-linearities in upscaling are assessed by comparing average model results based on (i) individual farm level calculations and (ii) averaged inputs at landscape level. Effects of the non-linearities that appear when scaling up from farm to landscape are demonstrated. Especially in relation to ammonia losses the non-linearity between livestock density and N-loss is significant (p > 0.999), with around 20-30% difference compared to a scaling procedure not taking this non-linearity into account. A significant effect of farm type on soil N accumulation (p > 0.95) was also identified and needs to be included when modelling landscape level N-fluxes and greenhouse gas emissions.

Multielemental fingerprinting as a tool for authentication of organic wheat, barley, faba bean, and potato

The multielemental composition of organic and conventional winter wheat, spring barley, faba bean, and potato was analyzed with inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) and -mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The crops were cultivated in two years at three geographically different field locations, each accommodating one conventional and two organic cropping systems. The conventional system produced the highest harvest yields for all crops except the nitrogen-fixing faba bean, whereas the dry matter content of each crop was similar across systems. No systematic differences between organic and conventional crops were found in the content of essential plant nutrients when statistically analyzed individually. However, chemometric analysis of multielemental fingerprints comprising up to 14 elements allowed discrimination. The discrimination power was further enhanced by analysis of up to 25 elements derived from semiquantitative ICP-MS. It is concluded that multielemental fingerprinting with semiquantitative ICP-MS and chemometrics has the potential to enable authentication of organic crops.

Climate change effects on runoff, catchment phosphorus loading and lake ecological state, and potential adaptations

Climate change may have profound effects on phosphorus (P) transport in streams and on lake eutrophication. Phosphorus loading from land to streams is expected to increase in northern temperate coastal regions due to higher winter rainfall and to a decline in warm temperate and arid climates. Model results suggest a 3.3 to 16.5% increase within the next 100 yr in the P loading of Danish streams depending on soil type and region. In lakes, higher eutrophication can be expected, reinforced by temperature-mediated higher P release from the sediment. Furthermore, a shift in fish community structure toward small and abundant plankti-benthivorous fish enhances predator control of zooplankton, resulting in higher phytoplankton biomass. Data from Danish lakes indicate increased chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biomass, higher dominance of dinophytes and cyanobacteria (most notably of nitrogen fixing forms), but lower abundance of diatoms and chrysophytes, reduced size of copepods and cladocerans, and a tendency to reduced zooplankton biomass and zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio when lakes warm. Higher P concentrations are also seen in warm arid lakes despite reduced external loading due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced inflow. Therefore, the critical loading for good ecological state in lakes has to be lowered in a future warmer climate. This calls for adaptation measures, which in the northern temperate zone should include improved P cycling in agriculture, reduced loading from point sources, and (re)-establishment of wetlands and riparian buffer zones. In the arid Southern Europe, restrictions on human use of water are also needed, not least on irrigation.

Adaptation to climate change in developing countries

Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general development policies.