Use of Vascular Assessments and Novel Biomarkers to Predict Cardiovascular Events in Type 2 Diabetes: The SUMMIT VIP Study

OBJECTIVE

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction represents an increasing clinical challenge in the treatment of diabetes. We used a panel of vascular imaging, functional assessments, and biomarkers reflecting different disease mechanisms to identify clinically useful markers of risk for cardiovascular (CV) events in subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2D) with or without manifest CVD.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The study cohort consisted of 936 subjects with T2D recruited at four European centers. Carotid intima-media thickness and plaque area, ankle-brachial pressure index, arterial stiffness, endothelial function, and circulating biomarkers were analyzed at baseline, and CV events were monitored during a 3-year follow-up period.

RESULTS

The CV event rate in subjects with T2D was higher in those with (n = 440) than in those without (n = 496) manifest CVD at baseline (5.53 vs. 2.15/100 life-years, P < 0.0001). New CV events in subjects with T2D with manifest CVD were associated with higher baseline levels of inflammatory biomarkers (interleukin 6, chemokine ligand 3, pentraxin 3, and hs-CRP) and endothelial mitogens (hepatocyte growth factor and vascular endothelial growth factor A), whereas CV events in subjects with T2D without manifest CVD were associated with more severe baseline atherosclerosis (median carotid plaque area 30.4 mm² [16.1-92.2] vs. 19.5 mm² [9.5-40.5], P = 0.01). Conventional risk factors, as well as measurements of arterial stiffness and endothelial reactivity, were not associated with CV events.

CONCLUSIONS

Our observations demonstrate that markers of inflammation and endothelial stress reflect CV risk in subjects with T2D with manifest CVD, whereas the risk for CV events in subjects with T2D without manifest CVD is primarily related to the severity of atherosclerosis.

HAPT2D: high accuracy of prediction of T2D with a model combining basic and advanced data depending on availability

OBJECTIVE

Type 2 diabetes arises from the interaction of physiological and lifestyle risk factors. Our objective was to develop a model for predicting the risk of T2D, which could use various amounts of background information.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We trained a survival analysis model on 8483 people from three large Finnish and Spanish data sets, to predict the time until incident T2D. All studies included anthropometric data, fasting laboratory values, an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and information on co-morbidities and lifestyle habits. The variables were grouped into three sets reflecting different degrees of information availability. Scenario 1 included background and anthropometric information; Scenario 2 added routine laboratory tests; Scenario 3 also added results from an OGTT. Predictive performance of these models was compared with FINDRISC and Framingham risk scores.

RESULTS

The three models predicted T2D risk with an average integrated area under the ROC curve equal to 0.83, 0.87 and 0.90, respectively, compared with 0.80 and 0.75 obtained using the FINDRISC and Framingham risk scores. The results were validated on two independent cohorts. Glucose values and particularly 2-h glucose during OGTT (2h-PG) had highest predictive value. Smoking, marital and professional status, waist circumference, blood pressure, age and gender were also predictive.

CONCLUSIONS

Our models provide an estimation of patient's risk over time and outweigh FINDRISC and Framingham traditional scores for prediction of T2D risk. Of note, the models developed in Scenarios 1 and 2, only exploited variables easily available at general patient visits.

Refining the accuracy of validated target identification through coding variant fine-mapping in type 2 diabetes

We aggregated coding variant data for 81,412 type 2 diabetes cases and 370,832 controls of diverse ancestry, identifying 40 coding variant association signals (P < 2.2 × 10-7); of these, 16 map outside known risk-associated loci. We make two important observations. First, only five of these signals are driven by low-frequency variants: even for these, effect sizes are modest (odds ratio ≤1.29). Second, when we used large-scale genome-wide association data to fine-map the associated variants in their regional context, accounting for the global enrichment of complex trait associations in coding sequence, compelling evidence for coding variant causality was obtained for only 16 signals. At 13 others, the associated coding variants clearly represent 'false leads' with potential to generate erroneous mechanistic inference. Coding variant associations offer a direct route to biological insight for complex diseases and identification of validated therapeutic targets; however, appropriate mechanistic inference requires careful specification of their causal contribution to disease predisposition.

Erratum: Sequence data and association statistics from 12,940 type 2 diabetes cases and controls

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2017.179.

Sequence data and association statistics from 12,940 type 2 diabetes cases and controls

To investigate the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) to high resolution, the GoT2D and T2D-GENES consortia catalogued variation from whole-genome sequencing of 2,657 European individuals and exome sequencing of 12,940 individuals of multiple ancestries. Over 27M SNPs, indels, and structural variants were identified, including 99% of low-frequency (minor allele frequency [MAF] 0.1-5%) non-coding variants in the whole-genome sequenced individuals and 99.7% of low-frequency coding variants in the whole-exome sequenced individuals. Each variant was tested for association with T2D in the sequenced individuals, and, to increase power, most were tested in larger numbers of individuals (>80% of low-frequency coding variants in ~82 K Europeans via the exome chip, and ~90% of low-frequency non-coding variants in ~44 K Europeans via genotype imputation). The variants, genotypes, and association statistics from these analyses provide the largest reference to date of human genetic information relevant to T2D, for use in activities such as T2D-focused genotype imputation, functional characterization of variants or genes, and other novel analyses to detect associations between sequence variation and T2D.

A Low-Frequency Inactivating AKT2 Variant Enriched in the Finnish Population Is Associated With Fasting Insulin Levels and Type 2 Diabetes Risk

To identify novel coding association signals and facilitate characterization of mechanisms influencing glycemic traits and type 2 diabetes risk, we analyzed 109,215 variants derived from exome array genotyping together with an additional 390,225 variants from exome sequence in up to 39,339 normoglycemic individuals from five ancestry groups. We identified a novel association between the coding variant (p.Pro50Thr) in AKT2 and fasting plasma insulin (FI), a gene in which rare fully penetrant mutations are causal for monogenic glycemic disorders. The low-frequency allele is associated with a 12% increase in FI levels. This variant is present at 1.1% frequency in Finns but virtually absent in individuals from other ancestries. Carriers of the FI-increasing allele had increased 2-h insulin values, decreased insulin sensitivity, and increased risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio 1.05). In cellular studies, the AKT2-Thr50 protein exhibited a partial loss of function. We extend the allelic spectrum for coding variants in AKT2 associated with disorders of glucose homeostasis and demonstrate bidirectional effects of variants within the pleckstrin homology domain of AKT2.

A Bayesian Network analysis of the probabilistic relations between risk factors in the predisposition to type 2 diabetes

In order to better understand the relations between different risk factors in the predisposition to type 2 diabetes, we present a Bayesian Network analysis of a large dataset, composed of three European population studies. Our results show, together with a key role of metabolic syndrome and of glucose after 2 hours of an Oral Glucose Tolerance Test, the importance of education, measured as the number of years of study, in the predisposition to type 2 diabetes.

Power in the phenotypic extremes: a simulation study of power in discovery and replication of rare variants

Next-generation sequencing technologies are making it possible to study the role of rare variants in human disease. Many studies balance statistical power with cost-effectiveness by (a) sampling from phenotypic extremes and (b) utilizing a two-stage design. Two-stage designs include a broad-based discovery phase and selection of a subset of potential causal genes/variants to be further examined in independent samples. We evaluate three parameters: first, the gain in statistical power due to extreme sampling to discover causal variants; second, the informativeness of initial (Phase I) association statistics to select genes/variants for follow-up; third, the impact of extreme and random sampling in (Phase 2) replication. We present a quantitative method to select individuals from the phenotypic extremes of a binary trait, and simulate disease association studies under a variety of sample sizes and sampling schemes. First, we find that while studies sampling from extremes have excellent power to discover rare variants, they have limited power to associate them to phenotype—suggesting high false-negative rates for upcoming studies. Second, consistent with previous studies, we find that the effect sizes estimated in these studies are expected to be systematically larger compared with the overall population effect size; in a well-cited lipids study, we estimate the reported effect to be twofold larger. Third, replication studies require large samples from the general population to have sufficient power; extreme sampling could reduce the required sample size as much as fourfold. Our observations offer practical guidance for the design and interpretation of studies that utilize extreme sampling.

Loss-of-function mutations in SLC30A8 protect against type 2 diabetes

Loss-of-function mutations protective against human disease provide in vivo validation of therapeutic targets, but none have yet been described for type 2 diabetes (T2D). Through sequencing or genotyping of ~150,000 individuals across 5 ancestry groups, we identified 12 rare protein-truncating variants in SLC30A8, which encodes an islet zinc transporter (ZnT8) and harbors a common variant (p.Trp325Arg) associated with T2D risk and glucose and proinsulin levels. Collectively, carriers of protein-truncating variants had 65% reduced T2D risk (P = 1.7 × 10(-6)), and non-diabetic Icelandic carriers of a frameshift variant (p.Lys34Serfs*50) demonstrated reduced glucose levels (-0.17 s.d., P = 4.6 × 10(-4)). The two most common protein-truncating variants (p.Arg138* and p.Lys34Serfs*50) individually associate with T2D protection and encode unstable ZnT8 proteins. Previous functional study of SLC30A8 suggested that reduced zinc transport increases T2D risk, and phenotypic heterogeneity was observed in mouse Slc30a8 knockouts. In contrast, loss-of-function mutations in humans provide strong evidence that SLC30A8 haploinsufficiency protects against T2D, suggesting ZnT8 inhibition as a therapeutic strategy in T2D prevention.

Genome-wide trans-ancestry meta-analysis provides insight into the genetic architecture of type 2 diabetes susceptibility

To further understanding of the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) susceptibility, we aggregated published meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) including 26,488 cases and 83,964 controls of European, East Asian, South Asian, and Mexican and Mexican American ancestry. We observed significant excess in directional consistency of T2D risk alleles across ancestry groups, even at SNPs demonstrating only weak evidence of association. By following up the strongest signals of association from the trans-ethnic meta-analysis in an additional 21,491 cases and 55,647 controls of European ancestry, we identified seven novel T2D susceptibility loci. Furthermore, we observed considerable improvements in fine-mapping resolution of common variant association signals at several T2D susceptibility loci. These observations highlight the benefits of trans-ethnic GWAS for the discovery and characterisation of complex trait loci, and emphasize an exciting opportunity to extend insight into the genetic architecture and pathogenesis of human diseases across populations of diverse ancestry.

Effects of common genetic variants associated with type 2 diabetes and glycemic traits on α- and β-cell function and insulin action in humans

Although meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies have identified >60 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with type 2 diabetes and/or glycemic traits, there is little information on whether these variants also affect α-cell function. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the effects of glycemia-associated genetic loci on islet function in vivo and in vitro. We studied 43 SNPs in 4,654 normoglycemic participants from the Finnish population-based Prevalence, Prediction, and Prevention of Diabetes-Botnia (PPP-Botnia) Study. Islet function was assessed, in vivo, by measuring insulin and glucagon concentrations during oral glucose tolerance test, and, in vitro, by measuring glucose-stimulated insulin and glucagon secretion from human pancreatic islets. Carriers of risk variants in BCL11A, HHEX, ZBED3, HNF1A, IGF1, and NOTCH2 showed elevated whereas those in CRY2, IGF2BP2, TSPAN8, and KCNJ11 showed decreased fasting and/or 2-h glucagon concentrations in vivo. Variants in BCL11A, TSPAN8, and NOTCH2 affected glucagon secretion both in vivo and in vitro. The MTNR1B variant was a clear outlier in the relationship analysis between insulin secretion and action, as well as between insulin, glucose, and glucagon. Many of the genetic variants shown to be associated with type 2 diabetes or glycemic traits also exert pleiotropic in vivo and in vitro effects on islet function.

Large-scale association analysis provides insights into the genetic architecture and pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes

To extend understanding of the genetic architecture and molecular basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D), we conducted a meta-analysis of genetic variants on the Metabochip, including 34,840 cases and 114,981 controls, overwhelmingly of European descent. We identified ten previously unreported T2D susceptibility loci, including two showing sex-differentiated association. Genome-wide analyses of these data are consistent with a long tail of additional common variant loci explaining much of the variation in susceptibility to T2D. Exploration of the enlarged set of susceptibility loci implicates several processes, including CREBBP-related transcription, adipocytokine signaling and cell cycle regulation, in diabetes pathogenesis.