Enabling technologies driving drug research and development

One of the strategic goals of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the European Medicines Regulatory Network is to support the research and uptake of innovative methods and technologies in the development of medicines. To promote this goal, EMA drew up a list of enabling technologies (ETs), which are novel and fast-growing technologies that have the potential to enable innovation and therefore exert considerable impact on drug development. In this work, enabling technologies identified by the EMA are analysed to measure their impact on drug development by following their journey from publications through early regulatory interactions to clinical trials between 2019 and 2022. This work also reviews the current list of EMA-identified ETs by scrutinising previously unseen innovative technologies identified in EMA submissions data. The analysis shows large variations in the appearance of the various innovative technologies in the different studied data sources, which provided valuable insights into the “Journey of Innovation” that innovative technologies undergo. Several emerging technologies were identified and endorsed for inclusion in the enabling technologies list, whereas some others already on the list were proposed to be excluded due to their low appearance in regulatory interactions as well as clinical trials and publications. Overall, this analysis highlights the relevance and value of continuously scanning and monitoring enabling technologies, supporting Europe’s goal to remain a leader in research and development of innovative technologies, methods, and methodologies relevant to drug development.

Long-term outcome after resection and thermal hepatic ablation of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumour liver metastases

Background

Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (Pan-NETs) are rare tumours that often present with or develop liver metastases. The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate liver surgery and thermal hepatic ablation (THA) of Pan-NET liver metastases and to compare the outcomes with those of a control group.

Method

Patients with Pan-NET treated in Uppsala University Hospital and Sahlgrenska University Hospital from 1995–2018 were included. Patient records were scrutinized for baseline parameters, survival, treatment and complications.

Results

Some 108 patients met the criteria for inclusion; 57 patients underwent treatment with liver surgery or THA and 51 constitute the control group. Median follow-up was 3.93 years. Five-year survival in the liver surgery/THA group was 70.6 (95 per cent c.i. 0.57 to 0.84) per cent versus 42.4 (95 per cent c.i. 40.7 to 59.1) per cent in the control group (P = 0.016) and median survival was 9.1 (95 per cent c.i. 6.5 to 11.7) versus 4.3  (95 per cent c.i. 3.4–5.2) years. In a multivariable analysis, surgery or THA was associated with a decreased death-years rate (hazard ratio 0.403 (95 per cent c.i. 0.208 to 0.782, P = 0.007).

Conclusion

Liver surgery and/or THA was associated with longer overall survival in Pan-NET with acceptable mortality and morbidity rates. These treatments should thus be considered in Pan-NET patients with reasonable tumour burden in an intent to alleviate symptoms and to improve survival.

Technology Considerations for Enabling eSource in Clinical Research: Industry Perspective

Background

The technological complexities and broad operational scope of eSource impede coordinated, inter-organizational action on advancing at-scale solutions.

Methods

We introduce an architectural framework for articulating technological considerations across organizations. The architecture neither implies nor endorses solution implementations; rather, it proposes solution functionality based upon principles and good clinical practices.

Results

Key technology considerations include patterns of anticipated use, implications to the current state of clinical trial operations, and the need for new technologies (i.e., IoT, Big Data, Predictive Analytics).

Conclusion

Technology considerations drive implications beyond technology—influencing regulatory, process, and ethical realms of clinical research.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s43441-020-00132-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Accelerating the Adoption of eSource in Clinical Research: A Transcelerate Point of View

For almost a decade, regulators and pharmaceutical industry groups have been interested in electronic source (eSource) in clinical trials (Nordo et al. in Learn Health Syst 3:e10076, 2019). eSource may provide efficiencies and value; however, eSource adoption is fragmented and slow. Acceleration of eSource adoption is a critical step in modernizing the conduct of clinical trials. The desired future state is one in which all source data, acquired through any context (e.g., healthcare delivery, chronic disease management) and actor (e.g., healthcare professional, patient, caregiver), are completely electronic, adequate in quality, and fully acceptable in clinical trial submissions by regulators worldwide. Achieving this desired future state requires transformative change management to foster adoption and minimize the burden of implementing eSource. Realizing this vision requires collaborative and dedicated efforts from multiple stakeholders, including patients, clinical trial participants, sites, technology vendors, standards organizations, regulators, payers, and sponsors. Stakeholders should align upon guidance to promote data integrity, data privacy, data security, and interoperability. The eSource revolution requires open dialogue, inclusive of shared learnings among stakeholders, to collectively and rapidly advance adoption. Adoption of eSource will optimize clinical research by enabling faster access to research data and more rapid decision-making, increasing clinical trial efficiency. Furthermore, adoption of eSource will improve data integrity by allowing direct data flow from the source to the sponsor’s system, with minimal or no human intervention. This paper provides the TransCelerate point of view (POV) and recommendations to achieve the future state vision of complete utilization of eSource data in clinical trials and builds on previous TransCelerate eSource publications.

Evaluation of an electronic, patient-focused management system aimed at preventing cytomegalovirus disease following solid organ transplantation

BACKGROUND

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is common among solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients and may cause CMV disease. To optimize the implementation of existing prevention strategies, the Management of Post-transplant Infections in Collaborating Hospitals (MATCH) program was developed. Two key performances of MATCH (diagnosing CMV infection at low viral load (VL) and before the onset of CMV disease) were assessed prior to, during and after the implementation of MATCH.

METHODS

The MATCH program included a personalized surveillance plan, prophylaxis and preemptive therapy determined by the recipient's risk of CMV infection. The plan was composed through predefined algorithms and implemented through harvesting of real-time data from medical records. Risk of CMV disease was compared for recipients transplanted during and after vs prior to the implementation of MATCH. Lung and non-lung transplants were analyzed separately.

RESULTS

A total of 593, 349, 520, and 360 SOT recipients were transplanted before (2007-2010), during (2011-2012), early after (2013-2015), and late after (2016-2017) implementation of MATCH with an observed reduction of diagnostic VL (P < .001) over time. Risk of CMV disease was reduced among non-lung transplant recipients transplanted during (adjusted hazard ratios [95% CI] 0.15 [0.04-0.54], P = .003), early after (aHR 0.27 [0.11-0.63], P = .003), and late after (aHR 0.17 [0.06-0.52], P = .002) compared with prior to MATCH. No significant change was observed among lung transplants.

CONCLUSION

Implementation of CMV preventive strategies through MATCH was associated with a reduced risk of CMV disease among non-lung transplant recipients. Furthermore, the limitations of VL as a sole indicator for CMV disease in lung transplants were emphasized.

Comparison of Kaposi Sarcoma Risk in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Positive Adults Across 5 Continents: A Multiregional Multicohort Study

BACKGROUND

We compared Kaposi sarcoma (KS) risk in adults who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) across the Asia-Pacific, South Africa, Europe, Latin, and North America.

METHODS

We included cohort data of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive adults who started ART after 1995 within the framework of 2 large collaborations of observational HIV cohorts. We present incidence rates and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).

RESULTS

We included 208140 patients from 57 countries. Over a period of 1066572 person-years, 2046 KS cases were diagnosed. KS incidence rates per 100000 person-years were 52 in the Asia-Pacific and ranged between 180 and 280 in the other regions. KS risk was 5 times higher in South African women (aHR, 4.56; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 2.73-7.62) than in their European counterparts, and 2 times higher in South African men (2.21; 1.34-3.63). In Europe, Latin, and North America KS risk was 6 times higher in men who have sex with men (aHR, 5.95; 95% CI, 5.09-6.96) than in women. Comparing patients with current CD4 cell counts ≥700 cells/µL with those whose counts were <50 cells/µL, the KS risk was halved in South Africa (aHR, 0.53; 95% CI, .17-1.63) but reduced by ≥95% in other regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite important ART-related declines in KS incidence, men and women in South Africa and men who have sex with men remain at increased KS risk, likely due to high human herpesvirus 8 coinfection rates. Early ART initiation and maintenance of high CD4 cell counts are essential to further reducing KS incidence worldwide, but additional measures might be needed, especially in Southern Africa.

The incidence of AIDS-defining illnesses at a current CD4 count ≥ 200 cells/μL in the post-combination antiretroviral therapy era

BACKGROUND

Few studies consider the incidence of individual AIDS-defining illnesses (ADIs) at higher CD4 counts, relevant on a population level for monitoring and resource allocation.

METHODS

Individuals from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) aged ≥14 years with ≥1 CD4 count of ≥200 µL between 1998 and 2010 were included. Incidence rates (per 1000 person-years of follow-up [PYFU]) were calculated for each ADI within different CD4 strata; Poisson regression, using generalized estimating equations and robust standard errors, was used to model rates of ADIs with current CD4 ≥500/µL.

RESULTS

A total of 12 135 ADIs occurred at a CD4 count of ≥200 cells/µL among 207 539 persons with 1 154 803 PYFU. Incidence rates declined from 20.5 per 1000 PYFU (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.0-21.1 per 1000 PYFU) with current CD4 200-349 cells/µL to 4.1 per 1000 PYFU (95% CI, 3.6-4.6 per 1000 PYFU) with current CD4 ≥ 1000 cells/µL. Persons with a current CD4 of 500-749 cells/µL had a significantly higher rate of ADIs (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 1.20; 95% CI, 1.10-1.32), whereas those with a current CD4 of ≥1000 cells/µL had a similar rate (aIRR, 0.92; 95% CI, .79-1.07), compared to a current CD4 of 750-999 cells/µL. Results were consistent in persons with high or low viral load. Findings were stronger for malignant ADIs (aIRR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.25-1.86) than for nonmalignant ADIs (aIRR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.25), comparing persons with a current CD4 of 500-749 cells/µL to 750-999 cells/µL.

DISCUSSION

The incidence of ADIs was higher in individuals with a current CD4 count of 500-749 cells/µL compared to those with a CD4 count of 750-999 cells/µL, but did not decrease further at higher CD4 counts. Results were similar in patients virologically suppressed on combination antiretroviral therapy, suggesting that immune reconstitution is not complete until the CD4 increases to >750 cells/µL.

The time course of development and impact from viral resistance against ganciclovir in cytomegalovirus infection

(Val)ganciclovir is used to treat cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection following solid organ (SOT) or hematopoietic stem cell (HSCT) transplantation. Treatment failures occur, but the contribution from 39 known ganciclovir-related mutations (GRMs) in the CMV-UL97 gene remains controversial. We propose a categorization of these GRMs potentially useful when interpreting sequence analyses in clinical settings. The UL97 gene was sequenced from first/recurrent CMV infections among consecutive SOT or HSCT recipients during 2004-2009. GRMs were categorized as: Signature GRM (sGRM) if in vitro ganciclovir IC(50) ratio for mutated versus wild-type virus >2 (n = 24); polymorphic GRM (pGRM) if ratio <2 (n = 15). (Val)ganciclovir treatment failure was defined as persistent viremia for 30 days or switch to foscarnet within this period. Of 99 (49 HSCT and 50 SOT) recipients with one CMV infection episode, 15 (13 HSCT and 2 SOT) experienced a total of 19 recurrent infection episodes. The prevalence of sGRM was 0% at start of first episode, whereas at start of recurrent episodes, prevalence was 37%. Only one sGRM was present at a time in individual patients. Patients with CMV containing an sGRM (vs. wild type)-but not with a pGRM-were at excess risk of treatment failure (odds ratio = 70.6 [95% CI:8.2-609.6]; p < 0.001). sGRMs emerged only following longer termed use of antiherpetic drugs and usually in recurrent CMV infection episodes. Risk of ganciclovir treatment failure was raised if an sGRM was detected.

Risk factors and outcomes for late presentation for HIV-positive persons in Europe: results from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe Study (COHERE)

BACKGROUND

Few studies have monitored late presentation (LP) of HIV infection over the European continent, including Eastern Europe. Study objectives were to explore the impact of LP on AIDS and mortality.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

LP was defined in Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) as HIV diagnosis with a CD4 count <350/mm(3) or an AIDS diagnosis within 6 months of HIV diagnosis among persons presenting for care between 1 January 2000 and 30 June 2011. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with LP and Poisson regression to explore the impact on AIDS/death. 84,524 individuals from 23 cohorts in 35 countries contributed data; 45,488 were LP (53.8%). LP was highest in heterosexual males (66.1%), Southern European countries (57.0%), and persons originating from Africa (65.1%). LP decreased from 57.3% in 2000 to 51.7% in 2010/2011 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.96; 95% CI 0.95-0.97). LP decreased over time in both Central and Northern Europe among homosexual men, and male and female heterosexuals, but increased over time for female heterosexuals and male intravenous drug users (IDUs) from Southern Europe and in male and female IDUs from Eastern Europe. 8,187 AIDS/deaths occurred during 327,003 person-years of follow-up. In the first year after HIV diagnosis, LP was associated with over a 13-fold increased incidence of AIDS/death in Southern Europe (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 13.02; 95% CI 8.19-20.70) and over a 6-fold increased rate in Eastern Europe (aIRR 6.64; 95% CI 3.55-12.43).

CONCLUSIONS

LP has decreased over time across Europe, but remains a significant issue in the region in all HIV exposure groups. LP increased in male IDUs and female heterosexuals from Southern Europe and IDUs in Eastern Europe. LP was associated with an increased rate of AIDS/deaths, particularly in the first year after HIV diagnosis, with significant variation across Europe. Earlier and more widespread testing, timely referrals after testing positive, and improved retention in care strategies are required to further reduce the incidence of LP.

Predictors of CD4(+) T-cell counts of HIV type 1-infected persons after virologic failure of all 3 original antiretroviral drug classes

BACKGROUND

Low CD4(+) T-cell counts are the main factor leading to clinical progression in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. We aimed to investigate factors affecting CD4(+) T-cell counts after triple-class virological failure.

METHODS

We included individuals from the COHERE database who started antiretroviral therapy from 1998 onward and who experienced triple-class virological failure. CD4(+) T-cell counts obtained after triple-class virologic failure were analyzed using generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

The analyses included 2424 individuals with a total of 23 922 CD4(+) T-cell count measurements. In adjusted models (excluding current viral load and year), CD4(+) T-cell counts were higher with regimens that included boosted protease inhibitors (increase, 22 cells/µL [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.9-41]; P = .017) or drugs from the new classes (increase, 39 cells/µL [95% CI, 15-62]; P = .001), compared with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens. These associations disappeared when current viral load and/or calendar year were included. Compared with viral levels of <2.5 log(10) copies/mL, levels of 2.5-3.5, 3.5-4.5, 4.5-5.5, and >5.5 log(10) copies/mL were associated with CD4(+) T-cell count decreases of 51, 84, 137, and 186 cells/µL, respectively (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The approximately linear inverse relationship between log(10) viral load and CD4(+) T-cell count indicates that there are likely immunologic benefits from lowering viral load even by modest amounts that do not lead to undetectable viral loads. This is important for patients with low CD4(+) T-cell counts and few drug options.

Trends in virological and clinical outcomes in individuals with HIV-1 infection and virological failure of drugs from three antiretroviral drug classes: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Limited treatment options have been available for people with HIV who have had virological failure of the three original classes of HIV antiretroviral drugs-so-called triple-class virological failure (TCVF). However, introduction of new drugs and drug classes might have improved outcomes. We aimed to assess trends in virological and clinical outcomes for individuals with TCVF in 2000-09.

METHODS

In our cohort study, we analysed data for adults starting antiretroviral therapy from 1998 in cohorts participating in the PLATO II project, which is part of COHERE, a collaboration of European cohorts. TCVF was defined as virological failure to at least two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, one non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor, and one ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor, with virological failure of a drug defined as one viral-load measurement of greater than 500 copies per mL after at least 4 months of continuous use. We used multivariable generalised estimating equation logistic models and Poisson regression models to study trends in virological suppression and incidence of AIDS or death after TCVF. We adjusted for sex, transmission group, age, AIDS status, CD4 cell count, plasma viral loads at TCVF, achievement of virological response (<50 copies per mL), and number of drug failures before TCVF.

FINDINGS

28 of 33 cohorts in COHERE contributed data to the PLATO II project, of which four had no participants eligible for inclusion in this study. 2476 (3%) of 91 764 participants from the remaining 24 cohorts had TCVF and at least one viral load measurement in 2000-09. The proportion of patients with virological response after TCVF increased from 19·5% in 2000 to 57·9% in 2009 (adjusted p<0·0001). Incidence of AIDS decreased from 7·7 per 100 person-years in 2000-02 to 2·3 in 2008 and 1·2 in 2009 (adjusted p<0·0001). Mortality decreased from 4·0 per 100 person-years between 2000 and 2002 to 1·9 in 2007 and 1·4 in 2008 (unadjusted p=0·023), but the trend was not significant after adjustment (p=0·22).

INTERPRETATION

A substantial improvement in viral load suppression and accompanying decrease in the rates of AIDS in people after extensive failure to drugs from the three original antiretroviral classes during 2000-09 was probably mainly driven by availability of newer drugs with better tolerability and ease of use and small cross-resistance profiles, suggesting the public health benefit of the introduction of new drugs.

The rate of accumulation of nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance in patients kept on a virologically failing regimen containing an NNRTI*

BACKGROUND

Virological failure of first-generation nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) can compromise the efficacy of etravirine as a result of the accumulation of NNRTI resistance mutations. How quickly NNRTI resistance accumulates in patients with a delayed switch from nevirapine or efavirenz despite virological failure, when these drugs are used as a component of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), remains unclear.

METHODS

The rate of NNRTI resistance accumulation was estimated in patients in EuroSIDA with at least two available genotypic resistance tests (GRTs), provided that (1) the date of the first GRT (t0) was after the date of the first virological failure (VF) of an NNRTI, and (2) patients were receiving an NNRTI and HIV RNA was >500 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL in all measurements between GRTs.

RESULTS

A total of 227 patients were included in the study, contributing 467 GRT pairs. At baseline-t0, a median of 3 months after VF, 66% of patients had at least one NNRTI mutation: 103N (34%), 181C (22%) and 190A (20%) were the most common mutations. Overall, 180 additional NNRTI mutations were found to have accumulated over 295 years [1 new/1.6 years; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-1.8]. The rate of accumulation was faster in the first 6 months from VF (1 new/1.1 years), and slower in patients exposed to nevirapine vs. those receiving efavirenz [relative risk (RR) 0.66; 95% CI 0.46-0.95; P=0.03].

CONCLUSIONS

There is an initial phase of rapid accumulation of NNRTI mutations close to the time of VF followed by a phase of slower accumulation. We predict that it should take approximately one year of exposure to a virologically failing first-generation NNRTI-based cART regimen to reduce etravirine activity from fully susceptible to intermediate resistant, and possibly longer in patients kept on a failing nevirapine-containing regimen.

Risk of triple-class virological failure in children with HIV: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In adults with HIV treated with antiretroviral drug regimens from within the three original drug classes (nucleoside or nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors [NRTIs], non-NRTIs [NNRTIs], and protease inhibitors), virological failure occurs slowly, suggesting that long-term virological suppression can be achieved in most people, even in areas where access is restricted to drugs from these classes. It is unclear whether this is the case for children, the group who will need to maintain viral suppression for longest. We aimed to determine the rate and predictors of triple-class virological failure to the three original drugs classes in children.

METHODS

In the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe, the rate of triple-class virological failure was studied in children infected perinatally with HIV who were aged less than 16 years, starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) with three or more drugs, between 1998 and 2008. We used Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods to investigate the risk and predictors of triple-class virological failure after ART initiation.

FINDINGS

Of 1007 children followed up for a median of 4·2 (IQR 2·4-6·5) years, 237 (24%) were triple-class exposed and 105 (10%) had triple-class virological failure, of whom 29 never had a viral-load measurement less than 500 copies per mL. Incidence of triple-class virological failure after ART initiation increased with time, and risk by 5 years after ART initiation was 12·0% (95% CI 9·4-14·6). In multivariate analysis, older age at ART initiation was associated with increased risk of failure (p=0·02). Of 686 children starting ART with NRTIs and either a NNRTI or ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor, the rate of failure was higher than in adults with heterosexually transmitted HIV (hazard ratio 2·2 [95% CI 1·6-3·0, p<0·0001]).

INTERPRETATION

Findings highlight the challenges of attaining long-term viral suppression in children who will be taking life-long ART. Early identification of children not responding to ART, adherence support, particularly for children and adolescents aged 13 years or older starting ART, and ART simplification strategies are all needed to attain and sustain virological suppression.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council award G0700832.

Triple-class virologic failure in HIV-infected patients undergoing antiretroviral therapy for up to 10 years

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy of people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is now estimated to approach that of the general population in some successfully treated subgroups. However, to attain these life expectancies, viral suppression must be maintained for decades.

METHODS

We studied the rate of triple-class virologic failure (TCVF) in patients within the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) that included a nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or a ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) from 1998 onwards. We also focused on TCVF in patients who started a PI/r-containing regimen after a first-line NNRTI-containing regimen failed.

RESULTS

Of 45 937 patients followed up for a median (interquartile range) of 3.0 (1.5-5.0) years, 980 developed TCVF (2.1%). By 5 and 9 years after starting ART, an estimated 3.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1%-3.6%) and 8.6% (95% CI, 7.5%-9.8%) of patients, respectively, had developed TCVF. The incidence of TCVF rose during the first 3 to 4 years on ART but plateaued thereafter. There was no significant difference in the risk of TCVF according to whether the initial regimen was NNRTI or PI/r based (P = .11). By 5 years after starting a PI/r regimen as second-line therapy, 46% of patients had developed TCVF.

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of virologic failure of the 3 original drug classes is low, but not negligible, and does not appear to diminish over time from starting ART. If this trend continues, many patients are likely to need newer drugs to maintain viral suppression. The rate of TCVF from the start of a PI/r regimen after NNRTI failure provides a comparator for studies of response to second-line regimens in resource-limited settings.

The Procalcitonin And Survival Study (PASS) - a randomised multi-center investigator-initiated trial to investigate whether daily measurements biomarker Procalcitonin and pro-active diagnostic and therapeutic responses to abnormal Procalcitonin levels, can improve survival in intensive care unit patients. Calculated sample size (target population): 1000 patients

BACKGROUND

Sepsis and complications to sepsis are major causes of mortality in critically ill patients. Rapid treatment of sepsis is of crucial importance for survival of patients. The infectious status of the critically ill patient is often difficult to assess because symptoms cannot be expressed and signs may present atypically. The established biological markers of inflammation (leucocytes, C-reactive protein) may often be influenced by other parameters than infection, and may be unacceptably slowly released after progression of an infection. At the same time, lack of a relevant antimicrobial therapy in an early course of infection may be fatal for the patient. Specific and rapid markers of bacterial infection have been sought for use in these patients.

METHODS

Multi-centre randomized controlled interventional trial. Powered for superiority and non-inferiority on all measured end points. Complies with, "Good Clinical Practice" (ICH-GCP Guideline (CPMP/ICH/135/95, Directive 2001/20/EC)). Inclusion: 1) Age > or = 18 years of age, 2) Admitted to the participating intensive care units, 3) Signed written informed consent.Exclusion: 1) Known hyper-bilirubinaemia. or hypertriglyceridaemia, 2) Likely that safety is compromised by blood sampling, 3) Pregnant or breast feeding. Computerized Randomisation: Two arms (1:1), n = 500 per arm: Arm 1: standard of care. Arm 2: standard of care and Procalcitonin guided diagnostics and treatment of infection. Primary Trial Objective: To address whether daily Procalcitonin measurements and immediate diagnostic and therapeutic response on day-to-day changes in procalcitonin can reduce the mortality of critically ill patients.

DISCUSSION

For the first time ever, a mortality-endpoint, large scale randomized controlled trial with a biomarker-guided strategy compared to the best standard of care, is conducted in an Intensive care setting. Results will, with a high statistical power answer the question: Can the survival of critically ill patients be improved by actively using biomarker procalcitonin in the treatment of infections? 700 critically ill patients are currently included of 1000 planned (June 2008). Two interim analyses have been passed without any safety or futility issues, and the third interim analysis is soon to take place. Trial registration number at clinicaltrials.gov: Id. nr.: NCT00271752).

Prediction of phenotypic susceptibility to antiretroviral drugs using physiochemical properties of the primary enzymatic structure combined with artificial neural networks

OBJECTIVES

Genotypic interpretation systems extrapolate observed associations in datasets to predict viral susceptibility to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) for given isolates. We aimed to develop and validate an approach using artificial neural networks (ANNs) that employ descriptors of physiochemical properties for mutations in HIV-1 protease (PR) and reverse transcriptase (RT) to predict phenotypic susceptibility to all currently approved ARVs.

METHOD

We extracted pairs of PR and RT gene sequences (n=1507; 98.5% sub-type B) and their corresponding exact phenotype values (PhenoSense only, n=10 132) from the Stanford HIV database. All amino acid positions and mixture codes were accounted for. For each ARV, an ANN was trained with 10-fold internal cross-validation. The predictive abilities of these trained ANNs were validated on separate datasets.

RESULTS

Correlation coefficients between observed and predicted phenotype values in the 10-fold cross-validation ranged from: 0.75 (tenofovir) to 0.94 [lamivudine (3TC)] for nucleoside RT inhibitors (NRTIs); 0.82 [efavirenz (EFV)] to 0.83 [nevirapine (NVP)] for non-nucleoside RT inhibitors (NNRTIs); and 0.83 (atazanavir) to 0.92 (ritonavir) for PR inhibitors (PIs). For the validation set the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.76 (didanosine) to 0.96 (3TC) for NRTIs; 0.68 (EFV) to 0.81 (NVP) for NNRTIs; and 0.88 (amprenavir) to 0.95 (saquinavir) for PIs. For C sub-type predictions, with ANNs trained on sub-type B data, the correlation coefficient was 0.89.

CONCLUSIONS

ANNs, based on the physiochemical properties of the PR and RT amino-acid sequences, predict phenotypic susceptibility to ARVs inhibiting these enzymes to an extent that is comparable to routine phenotypic susceptibility testing. These ANNs can also be used to predict resistance to C sub-types.

Modelled in vivo HIV Fitness under drug Selective Pressure and Estimated Genetic Barrier Towards Resistance are Predictive for Virological Response

Background

A method has been developed to estimate a fitness landscape experienced by HIV-1 under treatment selective pressure as a function of the genotypic sequence thereby also estimating the genetic barrier to resistance.

Methods

We evaluated the performance of two estimated fitness landscapes (nelfinavir [NFV] and zidovudine [AZT] plus lamivudine [3TC]) to predict week 12 viral load (VL) change for 176 treatment change episodes (TCEs) and probability of week 48 virological failure for 90 TCEs, in treatment experienced patients starting these drugs in combination.

Results

A higher genetic barrier for AZT plus 3TC, (quantified per additional mutation required to develop resistance against these drugs) was associated with a 0.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30–0.77) larger log10 VL reduction at 12 weeks ( P<0.0001) and a 0.39 (95% CI 0.23–0.66) lower odds of virological failure at 48 weeks ( P=0.0005), in analyses adjusting for the pre-TCE VL and the exact time-lag between the TCE and the date of determining response VL. The strength of these associations was comparable with those seen with expert interpretation systems (Rega, ANRS and HIVDB). A higher genetic barrier to NFV resistance was the only genotypic predictor that tended to be associated with a 0.19 (95% CI 0–0.39) higher log10 VL reduction at 12 weeks ( P=0.05) and a 0.63 (95% CI 0.36–1.09) lower odds of virological failure at 48 weeks ( P=0.10) per additional mutation.

Conclusions

These results suggest that an estimated genetic barrier derived from fitness landscapes may contribute to an improvement of predicted treatment outcome for NFV and this approach should be explored for other drugs.

Modelled in vivo HIV fitness under drug selective pressure and estimated genetic barrier towards resistance are predictive for virological response

BACKGROUND

A method has been developed to estimate a fitness landscape experienced by HIV-1 under treatment selective pressure as a function of the genotypic sequence thereby also estimating the genetic barrier to resistance.

METHODS

We evaluated the performance of two estimated fitness landscapes (nelfinavir [NFV] and zidovudine [AZT] plus lamivudine [3TC]) to predict week 12 viral load (VL) change for 176 treatment change episodes (TCEs) and probability of week 48 virological failure for 90 TCEs, in treatment experienced patients starting these drugs in combination.

RESULTS

A higher genetic barrier for AZT plus 3TC, (quantified per additional mutation required to develop resistance against these drugs) was associated with a 0.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30-0.77) larger log10 VL reduction at 12 weeks (P < 0.0001) and a 0.39 (95%/ CI 0.23-0.66) lower odds of virological failure at 48 weeks (P = 0.0005), in analyses adjusting for the pre-TCE VL and the exact time-lag between the TCE and the date of determining response VL. The strength of these associations was comparable with those seen with expert interpretation systems (Rega, ANRS and HIVDB). A higher genetic barrier to NFV resistance was the only genotypic predictor that tended to be associated with a 0.19 (95% CI 0-0.39) higher log10 VL reduction at 12 weeks (P = 0.05) and a 0.63 (95% CI 0.36-1.09) lower odds of virological failure at 48 weeks ( P = 0.10) per additional mutation.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that an estimated genetic barrier derived from fitness landscapes may contribute to an improvement of predicted treatment outcome for NFV and this approach should be explored for other drugs.

The ability of four genotypic interpretation systems to predict virological response to ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitors

BACKGROUND

: Limited information exists on the prognostic value of genotypic interpretation systems (GISs) for ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitors (PI/rs). We compared PI/r resistance levels ascribed by four GIS and examined their abilities to predict HIV-RNA reductions after starting a PI/r-based regimen (baseline).

METHODS

: Data on viraemic (HIV-RNA > 500 copies/ml) patients starting a PI/r with a baseline resistance test were combined from an observational cohort study (EuroSIDA) and three randomized trials (MaxCmin1; MaxCmin2 and COLATE). The GIS surveyed were ANRS, DMC, REGA and Stanford. Factors associated with HIV-RNA change were identified through censored regression analysis.

RESULTS

: We included 744 patients, of whom 67% were PI experienced. At baseline 12-28% (depending on the GIS) patients had a virus with predicted resistance/intermediate resistance to the PI/r initiated. Concordance between GISs on ascribed PI/r resistance levels was moderate: kappa values ranged from 0.01 to 1.00, with the lowest kappas seen for amprenavir. The median (interquartile range) baseline HIV-RNA was 4.4 (3.5-5.1) log10 and was reduced by 2.2 (2.1-2.3) log10 12 (9-13) weeks after baseline. GIS consistently showed greater HIV-RNA reductions as the ascribed level of sensitivity to the PI/r increased. Conversely, the number of other active drugs in the rest of the regimen, according to each GIS did not predict HIV-RNA reductions consistently.

CONCLUSION

: Despite large variations in how GIS classify HIV susceptibility to PI/r, all GIS predicted HIV-RNA reductions of a similar magnitude. The ascribed level of susceptibility to other drugs in the regimen did not predict HIV-RNA decline.

Evolution of drug resistance in HIV-infected patients remaining on a virologically failing combination antiretroviral therapy regimen

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the extent of drug resistance accumulation in patients kept on a virologically failing regimen and its determinants in the clinical setting.

DESIGN

The study focused on 110 patients of EuroSIDA on an unchanged regimen who had two genotypic tests performed at two time points (t0 and t1) when viral load was > 400 copies/ml.

METHODS

Accumulation of resistance between t0 and t1 was measured using genotypic susceptibility scores (GSS) obtained by counting the total number of active drugs (according to the Rega system v6.4.1) among all licensed antiretrovirals as of 1 January 2006. Patients were grouped according to the number of active drugs in the failing regimen at t0 (GSS_f-t0).

RESULTS

At t0, patients had been on the failing combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) for a median of 11 months (range, 6-50 months). Even patients with extensive resistance to the failing regimen were still receiving benefit from treatment. An overall 6-monthly increase of 1.96 (SD, 2.23) International Aids Society-mutations and an average loss of 1.25 (SD, 1.81) active drugs were estimated. In comparison with patients with GSS_f-t0 = 0, the number of active drugs lost was -1.08 [95% confidence interval (CI), -2.13 to -0.03; P = 0.04] in those with GSS_f-t0 of 0.5-1.5 and -1.24 (95% CI, -2.44 to -0.04; P = 0.04) in those with GSS_f-t0 >or= 2.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients kept on the same virologically failing cART regimen for a median of 6 months, there was considerable accumulation of drug resistance mutations, particularly in patients with initial low level of resistance to the failing regimen. Randomized comparisons of maintenance treatment strategies while awaiting a new suppressive therapy to become available are warranted.

A Randomized Trial to Evaluate Continuation versus Discontinuation of Lamivudine in Individuals Failing A Lamivudine-Containing Regimen: The Colate Trial

Background

Lamivudine (3TC) therapy can cause the emergence of M184I/V. Previous studies suggest a higher fidelity of the mutant reverse transcriptase and lower replication capacity of the mutant virus. No data exist from clinical comparative studies evaluating the benefit of M184I/V in patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).

Methods

HIV-1-infected adults failing a 3TC-containing regimen were randomized to continue (On-3TC) or discontinue 3TC (Off-3TC) whilst receiving cART. The primary efficacy measure was the log10 average-area-under-the-curve-minus-baseline reduction in HIV RNA over 48 weeks. Cryopreserved plasma samples from patients with baseline and ≥1 follow-up sample with HIV RNA >500 copies/ml were sequenced for a nucleotide distances substudy. Evolutionary distances were compared between treatment arms and between viruses with and without M184I/V

Results

The overall 48-week log10 HIV RNA change was -1.4 (95% CI: -1.6, -1.1) for On-3TC ( n=65) and -1.5 (95% CI: -1.7, -1.2) for Off-3TC ( n=66; P=0.51). No difference was seen in the magnitude of the CD4+ T-cell count increases (median increase: 87 vs 76 cells/ml for 3TC vs Off-3TC, respectively). Thirty-seven patients had baseline and follow-up sequencing. Overall, there were 1.2 (95% CI: -2.2, 4.6) more nucleotide substitutions from baseline for Off-3TC patients ( P=0.50), and 10.7 (95% CI: 7.5, 14.0) fewer nucleotide changes in viruses containing M184I/V ( P<0.0001).

Conclusion

This study found no added virological or immunological benefit of continuing 3TC in patients on cART harbouring M184I/V Evolutionary distances from baseline were larger in viruses that did not contain M184I/V. More discernable benefits may be seen in patients with fewer drug options as potent cART may eclipse a benefit of M184I/V in COLATE.

HIV-1 subtypes and response to combination antiretroviral therapy in Europe

BACKGROUND

Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) may vary in ability to suppress viral load and increase CD4+ T-cell count in people infected with different HIV-1 subtypes, possibly due to differences in resistance development. Antiretroviral drugs have predominantly been developed in Western Europe/North America on the basis of the most prevalent subtype, B. However, non-B subtypes are increasingly spreading worldwide.

OBJECTIVE

To compare virological and immunological response to cART between patients infected with B and non-B subtypes across Europe.

DESIGN

EuroSIDA prospective, observational cohort with 11,928 HIV-1-infected patients.

METHODS

Response to cART was analysed in patients with subtypes determined pre-cART, via multivariable logistic regression on the first measurements 6-12 months after starting cART. A virological response was defined as a viral load <500 copies/mi and immunological response as a CD4+ T-cell count increase of > or =100 cells/mm(3).

RESULTS

Forty-five percent of patients were antiretroviral naive at initiation of cART. Virological suppression was achieved by 58% of 689 subtype-B-infected patients and 66% of 102 non-B-infected patients (P=0.159). After adjustment for potential confounders, there was no significant difference in odds of achieving virological suppression (non-B compared with B; odds ratio [OR]: 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.58-1.93, P=0.866). An immunological response was achieved by 43% of 753 B-infected patients and 48% of 114 non-B-infected patients (P=0.334). After adjustment, there was no significant difference in odds of an immunological response (OR: 1.17, 95% CI: 0.73-1.87, P=0.524).

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence of significant differences in virological or immunological response to cART between patients infected with HIV-1 B and non-B subtypes.

A randomized trial to evaluate continuation versus discontinuation of lamivudine in individuals failing a lamivudine-containing regimen: the COLATE trial

BACKGROUND

Lamivudine (3TC) therapy can cause the emergence of M1841/V. Previous studies suggest a higher fidelity of the mutant reverse transcriptase and lower replication capacity of the mutant virus. No data exist from clinical comparative studies evaluating the benefit of M1841/V in patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).

METHODS

HIV-1-infected adults failing a 3TC-containing regimen were randomized to continue (On-3TC) or discontinue 3TC (Off-3TC) whilst receiving cART. The primary efficacy measure was the log10 average-area-under-the-curve-minus-baseline reduction in HIV RNA over 48 weeks. Cryopreserved plasma samples from patients with baseline and > or =1 follow-up sample with HIV RNA >500 copies/ml were sequenced for a nucleotide distances substudy. Evolutionary distances were compared between treatment arms and between viruses with and without M1841/V.

RESULTS

The overall 48-week log10 HIV RNA change was -1.4 (95% CI: -1.6, -1.1) for On-3TC (n=65) and -1.5 (95% CI: -1.7, -1.2) for Off-3TC (n=66; P=0.51). No difference was seen in the magnitude of the CD4+ T-cell count increases (median increase: 87 vs 76 cells/ml for 3TC vs Off-3TC, respectively). Thirty-seven patients had baseline and follow-up sequencing. Overall, there were 1.2 (95% CI: -2.2, 4.6) more nucleotide substitutions from baseline for Off-3TC patients (P=0.50), and 10.7 (95% CI: 7.5, 14.0) fewer nucleotide changes in viruses containing M18411V (P<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

This study found no added virological or immunological benefit of continuing 3TC in patients on cART harbouring M1841/V. Evolutionary distances from baseline were larger in viruses that did not contain M1841/V. More discernable benefits may be seen in patients with fewer drug options as potent cART may eclipse a benefit of M1841/V in COLATE.

Baseline resistance and virological outcome in patients with virological failure who start a regimen containing abacavir: EuroSIDA study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the ability of several HIV-1 drug-resistance interpretation systems, as well as the number of pre-specified combinations of abacavir-related mutations, to predict virological response to abacavir-containing regimens in antiretroviral therapy-experienced, abacavir-naive patients starting an abacavir-containing regimen in the EuroSIDA cohort.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 100 HIV-infected patients with viral load (VL) >500 copies/ml who had a plasma sample available at the time of starting abacavir (baseline) were included. Resistance to abacavir was interpreted by using eight different commonly used systems that consisted of rules-based algorithms or tables of mutations. Correlation between baseline abacavir-resistance mutations and month 6 virological response was performed on this population using a multivariable linear regression model accounting for censored data.

RESULTS

The baseline VL was 4.36 log10 RNA copies/ml [interquartile range (IQR): 3.65-4.99 log10 RNA copies/ml] and the median CD4 cell count was 210 cells/microl (IQR: 67-305 cells/microl). Our patients were pre-exposed to a median of seven antiretrovirals (2-12) before starting abacavir therapy. The median (range) number of abacavir mutations (according to the International AIDS Society-USA) detected at baseline was 3.5 (0-8). Overall, the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the median month 6 VL decline was 0.86 log10 RNA copies/ml [95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 0.45-1.24]. The VL in those patients (n=31) who intensified treatment by adding only abacavir decreased by a median 0.20 log10 RNA copies/ml (95% CI: -0.18; +0.94). The proportion of patients who harboured viruses fully resistant to abacavir among the eight genotypic resistance interpretation algorithms ranged from 12% [Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA (ANRS)] to 79% [Stanford HIV RT and PR Sequence Database (HIVdb)]. Some interpretation systems showed statistically significant associations between the predicted resistance status and the virological response while others showed no consistent association. The number of active drugs in the regimen was associated with greater virological suppression (additional month 6 VL reduction per additional sensitive drug=0.51, 95% CI: 0.15-0.88, P=0.006); baseline VL was also weakly associated (additional month 6 VL reduction per log10 higher=0.30, 95% CI: -0.02; +0.62, P=0.06). In contrast, the number of drugs previously received was associated with diminished viral reduction (additional month 6 VL reduction per additional drug=-0.14, 95% CI: -0.28; 0.00, P=0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results revealed a high degree of variability among several genotypic resistance interpretation algorithms currently in use for abacavir. Therefore, the interpretation of genotypic resistance for predicting response to regimens containing abacavir remains a major challenge.

HIV cohort collaborations: proposal for harmonization of data exchange

HIV cohort studies have provided useful information on the natural history of HIV infection and the effects of antiretroviral therapy. It has become increasingly common to combine data from several cohorts into one dataset in order to address certain specific questions with more statistical power than can be achieved with the individual studies. This requires each cohort to map data into a standard format before merging. Until recently, this standard format has differed for each such collaborative analysis. We have therefore developed the HIV Cohort Data Exchange Protocol (HICDEP), which is freely available at http://www.cphiv.dk/HICDEP.pdf. Once individual cohorts have set up a means of transfering data into this format, as and when required, this should greatly facilitate data merging for future joint analyses. The HICDEP incorporates data from HIV drug resistance tests, which have been particularly challenging for cohorts to integrate into databases.

Comparative genetic resistance to Ascaridia galli infections of 4 different commercial layer-lines

1. The objective of the study was to compare the establishment and effect of Asaridia galli infections in 4 different layer-lines. 2. A total of 160 birds comprising 4 different commercial layer-lines, ISA Brown, New Hampshire, Skalborg and a cross of New Hampshire(NH) and Skalborg (Sk), were infected with A. galli eggs. The birds were examined for the presence of parasite eggs and parasites at weeks 3, 6 and 9 post infection (pi). 3. At week 6 pi the chickens of the NH line harboured more larvae compared with the three otherlines. The Sk line chickens excreted more A. galli eggs throughout the study compared with the other lines. Female worms in the Sk line were more fecund than the worms in the other lines. Male and female worms recovered from the Sk line at week 9 pi were longer. Male worms recovered from the NH line 6 weeks pi were shorter than male worms from the other lines. Female worms recovered from the NH line were shorter than the female worms from the ISA line and the Sk line. No differences were seen in weight gain among the 4 lines. 4. The results suggest that genetic factors are involved in the establishment and survival of A. galli in the intestine of layers. Further studies are needed to elucidate the genetic mechanisms behind the observed parasitological findings.

Mechanical loosening after hip replacement. Incidence after 10 years in 125 patients

From our first 186 Charnley hip replacements 125, retained for more than 10 years, were examined clinically and radiographically. There were radiographic signs of definite or probable loosening of one or both prosthetic components in 29 per cent of the hips. However, there was a poor correlation between the clinical and the radiographic results, as 86 per cent of the hips were free from significant pain. The loosening rate for males under 60 years of age at the time of the operation was four times higher than for females in the same age group. We suggest that this high-risk group should be followed radiographically, so that a revision, if necessary, can be considered while the bone stock is still sufficient.

The subchondral bone of the proximal tibial epiphysis in osteoarthritis of the knee

The trabecular bone of the proximal end of the tibia was assessed as an endoprosthesis-bearing structure. The mass and mineral content as well as the activity of subchondral trabecular bone were determined in osteoarthritis knees with varus or valgus deformity. Bone specimens were taken from the lateral condyle, the medial condyle, and centrally from the intercondylar area of seven varus and four valgus knees. The percentage volume of trabecular bone was determined by histomorphometry. On an additional nine knees, five with varus and four with valgus deformity, as well as ten knees from a normal autopsy material, photon absorptiometric determination of the mineral content of the same areas was performed. On average, the loaded condyle had twice the percentage volume of trabecular bone, and accordingly twice the mineral content, of the unloaded condyle. It was remarkable that the mineral content of the latter was of the same order as the condyles of the normal material.