Increased prognostic value of clinical–reproductive model in Chinese female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

In China, it has been well recognized that some female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have different overall survival (OS) time, even with the same tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, challenging the prognostic value of the TNM system alone. An effective predictive model is needed to accurately evaluate the prognosis of female ESCC patients.

AIM

To construct a novel prognostic model with clinical and reproductive data for Chinese female patients with ESCC, and to assess the incremental prognostic value of the full model compared with the clinical model and TNM stage.

METHODS

A new prognostic nomogram incorporating clinical and reproductive features was constructed based on univariatie and Cox proportional hazards survival analysis from a training cohort (n = 175). The results were recognized using the internal (n = 111) and independent external (n = 85) validation cohorts. The capability of the clinical–reproductive model was evaluated by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), Kaplan–Meier curve, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis. The correlations between estrogen response and immune-related pathways and some gene markers of immune cells were analyzed using the TIMER 2.0 database.

RESULTS

A clinical–reproductive model including incidence area, age, tumor differentiation, lymph node metastasis (N) stage, estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) and beta (ESR2) expression, menopausal age, and pregnancy number was constructed to predict OS in female ESCC patients. Compared to the clinical model and TNM stage, the time-dependent ROC and C-index of the clinical–reproductive model showed a good discriminative ability for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-years OS in the primary training, internal and external validation sets. Based on the optimal cut-off value of total prognostic scores, patients were classified into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different OS. The estrogen response was significantly associated with p53 and apoptosis pathways in esophageal cancer.

CONCLUSION

The clinical–reproductive prognostic nomogram has an incremental prognostic value compared with the clinical model and TNM stage in predicting OS in Chinese female ESCC patients.

Long-term effect of hospital volume on the postoperative prognosis of 158,618 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in China

Background

The impact of hospital volume on the long-term survival of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has not been well assessed in China, especially for stage I-III stage ESCC. We performed a large sample size study to assess the relationships between hospital volume and the effectiveness of ESCC treatment and the hospital volume value at the lowest risk of all-cause mortality after esophagectomy in China.

Aim

To investigate the prognostic value of hospital volume for assessing postoperative long-term survival of ESCC patients in China.

Methods

The date of 158,618 patients with ESCC were collected from a database (1973-2020) established by the State Key Laboratory for Esophageal Cancer Prevention and Treatment, the database includes 500,000 patients with detailed clinical information of pathological diagnosis and staging, treatment approaches and survival follow-up for esophageal and gastric cardia cancers. Intergroup comparisons of patient and treatment characteristics were conducted with the X² test and analysis of variance. The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used to draw the survival curves for the variables tested. A Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the independent prognostic factors for overall survival. The relationship between hospital volume and all-cause mortality was assessed using restricted cubic splines from Cox proportional hazards models. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality.

Results

In both 1973-1996 and 1997-2020, patients with stage I-III stage ESCC who underwent surgery in high volume hospitals had better survival than those who underwent surgery in low volume hospitals (both P<0.05). And high volume hospital was an independent factor for better prognosis in ESCC patients. The relationship between hospital volume and the risk of all-cause mortality was half-U-shaped, but overall, hospital volume was a protective factor for esophageal cancer patients after surgery (HR<1). The concentration of hospital volume associated with the lowest risk of all-cause mortality was 1027 cases/year in the overall enrolled patients.

Conclusion

Hospital volume can be used as an indicator to predict the postoperative survival of ESCC patients. Our results suggest that the centralized management of esophageal cancer surgery is meaningful to improve the survival of ESCC patients in China, but the hospital volume should preferably not be higher than 1027 cases/year.

Core tip

Hospital volume is considered to be a prognostic factor for many complex diseases. However, the impact of hospital volume on long-term survival after esophagectomy has not been well evaluated in China. Based on a large sample size of 158,618 ESCC patients in China spanning 47 years (1973-2020), We found that hospital volume can be used as a predictor of postoperative survival in patients with ESCC, and identified hospital volume thresholds with the lowest risk of death from all causes. This may provide an important basis for patients to choose hospitals and have a significant impact on the centralized management of hospital surgery.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram model for Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus

BACKGROUND

Primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus (PSCE) is a highly invasive malignant tumor with a poor prognosis compared with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Due to the limited samples size and the short follow-up time, there are few reports on elucidating the prognosis of PSCE, especially on the establishment and validation of a survival prediction nomogram model covering general information, pathological factors and specific biological proteins of PSCE patients.

AIM

To establish an effective nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) probability for PSCE patients in China.

METHODS

The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 256 PSCE patients. Univariate analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were used to examine the prognostic factors associated with PSCE, and establish the model for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS based on the Akaike information criterion. Discrimination and validation were assessed by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Histology type, age, tumor invasion depth, lymph node invasion, detectable metastasis, chromogranin A, and neuronal cell adhesion molecule 56 were integrated into the model.

RESULTS

The C-index was prognostically superior to the 7^th tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging in the primary cohort [0.659 (95%CI: 0.607-0.712) vs 0.591 (95%CI: 0.517-0.666), P = 0.033] and in the validation cohort [0.700 (95%CI: 0.622-0.778) vs 0.605 (95%CI: 0.490-0.721), P = 0.041]. Good calibration curves were observed for the prediction probabilities of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in both cohorts. DCA analysis showed that our nomogram model had a higher overall net benefit compared to the 7^th TNM staging .

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram can be used to predict the survival probability of PSCE patients, which can help clinicians to make individualized survival predictions.

Characterization of tissue chromogranin A (CgA) immunostaining and clinicohistopathological changes for the 125 Chinese patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus

The rarity of primary small cell carcinoma of the esophagus (PSCE) has limited the clinical feature and survival analysis with large sample size. Tissue chromogranin A (CgA) protein expression has been reported to be a useful biomarker for diagnosing PSCE. Interestingly, recent studies have indicated tissue CgA as a significant prognostic marker in multiple human cancers, but without PSCE. The present study, thus, was undertaken to characterize the clinicopathological changes and to evaluate the associations of tissue CgA expression with clinical response on Chinese PSCE patients. All the 125 PSCE patients were enrolled from our 500,000 esophageal and gastric cardia carcinoma databases (1973-2015), constructed by the cooperative team from more than 700 hospitals in China and established by Henan Key Laboratory for Esophageal Cancer Research in Henan, China. Immunostaining for CgA showed that CgA was mainly located in cytoplasm of tumor cells with a positive detection rate of 44.6%. The CgA positive expression rate in PSCE at lower segment of the esophagus (72.2%) was higher than that at middle segment (41.5%) (P = 0.001). However, CgA protein expression did not correlated with lymph node metastasis (P = 0.767), TNM staging (P = 0.740), tumor invasion (P = 0.253), gender (P = 0.262), and age (P = 0.250). Multivariate survival analysis showed that the patients with higher CgA protein expression had a superior long survival than those without CgA expression (P = 0.037). The clinicopathological analysis showed that PSCE occurred predominantly in male (M:F = 1.9:1) at the middle segment (68%) of the esophagus. Histologically, 89.6% were pure PSCE and 10.4% were mixed type with either squamous cell carcinoma (8%) or adenocarcinoma (2.4%). It was noteworthy that, with the in-depth invasion from T1 to T2 and T3, the positive lymph node metastasis rate increased dramatically from 38%, 56% to 74%, respectively. The survival rates of 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year were 64%, 35%, 18%, and 7%, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the young patients (≤60 years) had longer survival than the elderly (P = 0.011). Interestingly, multivariate survival analysis revealed that the patients with mixed PSCE had a significantly better survival than those with pure PSCE (P = 0.015). Furthermore, the median survival time for the patients with and without lymph node metastasis was 1.16 and 2.03 years, respectively. But, the difference was not significant (P = 0.143). Univariate analysis did not show any survival influence by gender, tumor location, tumor invasion depth, and TNM staging. It was noteworthy that, of the 13 early PSCE patients (T1N0M0), only one patient had more than 5 year survival, the others died with less than one or two year (65%). The present study indicates that the PSCE is of badly worsen prognosis, even in the pathological early stage. Tissue CgA protein expression is a promising maker not only for diagnosis and also for prognosis. Further assessment is needed to establish specific PSCE pathological staging system and to clarify the mechanisms of CgA protein in PSCE progression and prognosis.

Association of genotypes of rs671 withinALDH2 with risk for gastric cardia adenocarcinoma in the Chinese Han population in high- and low-incidence areas

OBJECTIVE

: This study aimed to determine if gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) risk was associated with the lys (A or *2) allele at the rs671 (glu504lys) polymorphism within the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene in a Chinese Han population. We also aimed to investigateALDH2 genotypic distributions between subjects from high- and low-incidence areas for both GCA and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS

: We designed a case-control study including 2,686 patients with GCA and 3,675 control subjects from high- and low-incidence areas for both GCA and ESCC in China. TaqMan allele discrimination assay was used to genotype the rs671 polymorphism.χ² test and binary logistic regression analysis were used to estimate the odds ratios for the development of GCA, and multivariate ordinal logistic regression was used to analyzeALDH2 genotypic distributions among different groups.

RESULTS

: Compared withALDH2*1/*1 homozygotes,ALDH2*1/*2 andALDH2*2/*2 carriers did not increase the risk for GCA in the Chinese Han population (P>0.05). Interestingly, the ratio of homozygous or heterozygousALDH2 *2 carriers in high-incidence areas for both GCA and ESCC was lower than that in low-incidence areas (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

: Genotypes of rs671 atALDH2 may not increase GCA susceptibility in Chinese Han populations. In addition, theALDH2 genotypic distribution differs between Chinese Han populations from high- and low-incidence areas for both GCA and ESCC. Our findings may shed light on the possible genetic mechanism for the dramatic geographic differences of GCA occurrence in China.

Effects of reproductive and menstrual factors on survival of women with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

AIM: To determine the effects of reproductive and menstrual factors on the survival of women with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

METHODS: A total of 12041 Chinese women with ESCC were enrolled in this study, and their median age was 61 years. All patients' information was retrieved from the esophageal cancer database of Henan Key Laboratory for Esophageal Cancer Research based on the records of reproduction and menstrual history. The menopausal status was categorized as pre-, peri- and post-menopausal. Questionnaire, home interview and/or telephone were performed for survival follow-up. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for analysis of relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) to determine the effects of reproductive and menstrual factors on ESCC survival.

RESULTS: Survival analysis demonstrated that patients with increased number of pregnancy had a longer survival (RR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.16-1.92); the prolonged survival remained in patients from the high incidence area (RR = 1.41, 95%CI: 1.03-1.86) and in patients with a negative family history (RR = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.04-1.41). Pre-menopausal patients had a longer survival than peri- and postmenopausal patients (P = 0.00); this remained in patients from the high incidence area (RR for post- vs pre-menopausal, 0.73, 95%CI: 0.62-0.86) and in patients with a negative family history (RR = 0.70, 95%CI: 0.58-0.85).

CONCLUSION: Increasing number of pregnancy and premenopausal status may be favorable factors for ESCC survival in Chinese women with ESCC.

Joint analysis of three genome-wide association studies of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Chinese populations

We conducted a joint (pooled) analysis of three genome-wide association studies (GWAS) ^1-3 of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in ethnic Chinese (5,337 ESCC cases and 5,787 controls) with 9,654 ESCC cases and 10,058 controls for follow-up. In a logistic regression model adjusted for age, sex, study, and two eigenvectors, two new loci achieved genome-wide significance, marked by rs7447927 at 5q31.2 (per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 0.85, 95% CI 0.82-0.88; P=7.72x10⁻²⁰) and rs1642764 at 17p13.1 (per-allele OR= 0.88, 95% CI 0.85-0.91; P=3.10x10⁻¹³). rs7447927 is a synonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in TMEM173 and rs1642764 is an intronic SNP in ATP1B2, near TP53. Furthermore, a locus in the HLA class II region at 6p21.32 (rs35597309) achieved genome-wide significance in the two populations at highest risk for ESSC (OR=1.33, 95% CI 1.22-1.46; P=1.99x10⁻¹⁰). Our joint analysis identified new ESCC susceptibility loci overall as well as a new locus unique to the ESCC high risk Taihang Mountain region.

Detection of autoantibodies to a panel of tumor-associated antigens for the diagnosis values of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma

To evaluate the diagnostic values of using autoantibodies in sera to a panel of eight tumor-associated antigens (TAAs) of P53, Koc, P62, C-myc, IMP1, Survivn, P16 and Cyclin B1 full-length recombinant proteins for early detection of patients with gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) and high-risk subjects screening. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to detect autoantibodies against the eight selected TAAs in 383 sera samples from four groups, including 140 subjects with normal gastric cardia epithelia (NOR), 76 patients with chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG), 79 patients with gastric cardia dysplasia (DYS) and 88 patients with GCA. In addition, the expression of the eight antigens was analyzed in gastric cardia tissues by immunohistochemical method. The individual autoantibodies to six TAAs (P53, P62, IMP1, Survivn P16 and Cyclin B1) were significantly higher in sera from patients with GCA than that in normal subjects (P < 0.05). When autoantibody assay successively accumulated to seven TAAs (P53, Koc, P62, C-myc, IMP1, Survivn and P16), a stepwise increased detection frequency of autoantibodies was found in the four sera groups (13% in NOR, 39% in CAG, 46% in DYS, and 64% in GCA, respectively), the risks to CAG, DYS and GCA steadily increased about 4.4-, 5.7- and 12.0-fold. The sensitivity and the specificity for autoantibodies against the seven TAAs in diagnosing GCA reached up to 64% and 87%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the seven anti-TAA autoantibodies was 0.73 (95%CI: 0.68-0.78) No more increase in sensitivity was found with the addition of new anti-TAA autoantibodies. A combination detection of autoantibodies to TAAs might be helpful to distinguish GCA patients from normal subjects and the patients with gastric cardia precancerous lesions. In addition, further studies in patients with GCA and precancerous lesions using enlarged TAA panels might improve the sensitivity and specificity of cancer detection and high-risk subjects screening.

Autoantibody detection to tumor-associated antigens of P53, IMP1, P16, cyclin B1, P62, C-myc, Survivn, and Koc for the screening of high-risk subjects and early detection of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic values by detecting sera autoantibodies to eight tumor-associated antigens (TAAs) of P53, IMP1, P16, cyclin B1, P62, C-myc, Survivn and Koc full-length recombinant proteins for the screening of high-risk subjects and early detection of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was used to detect autoantibodies against the eight selected TAAs in 567 sera samples from four groups, including 200 individuals with normal esophageal epithelia (NOR), 214 patients with esophageal basal cell hyperplasia (BCH), 65 patients with esophageal dysplasia (DYS), and 88 patients with ESCC. In addition, the expression of the eight antigens in esophageal tissues was analyzed by immunohistochemistry. Statistically significant distribution differences were identified among the four groups for each of the individual autoantibodies to six TAAs (P53, IMP1, P16, cyclin B1, P62, and C-myc); the detection rates of antoantibodies were positively correlated with the progression of ESCC. When autoantibody assay successively accumulated to six TAAs (P53, IMP1, P16, cyclin B1, P62, and C-myc), a stepwise increased detection frequency of autoantibodies was found in the four sera groups (6% in NOR, 18% in BCH, 38% in DYS, and 64% in ESCC, respectively), the risks to BHC, DYS, and ESCC steadily increased about 3-, 9-, and 27-folds. The sensitivity and the specificity for autoantibodies against the six TAAs in diagnosing ESCC reached up to 64% and 94%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the six anti-TAA autoantibodies was 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.74-0.83). No more increasing in sensitivity was found with the addition of new anti-TAA autoantibodies. A combination detection of autoantibodies to TAAs might distinguish ESCC patients from normal individuals and the patients with esophageal precancerous lesions.

Genome-wide association study of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Chinese subjects identifies susceptibility loci at PLCE1 and C20orf54

We performed a genome-wide association study of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) by genotyping 1,077 individuals with ESCC and 1,733 control subjects of Chinese Han descent. We selected 18 promising SNPs for replication in an additional 7,673 cases of ESCC and 11,013 control subjects of Chinese Han descent and 303 cases of ESCC and 537 control subjects of Chinese Uygur-Kazakh descent. We identified two previously unknown susceptibility loci for ESCC: PLCE1 at 10q23 (P(Han combined for ESCC) = 7.46 x 10(-56), odds ratio (OR) = 1.43; P(Uygur-Kazakh for ESCC) = 5.70 x 10(-4), OR = 1.53) and C20orf54 at 20p13 (P(Han combined for ESCC) = 1.21 x 10(-11), OR = 0.86; P(Uygur-Kazakh for ESCC) = 7.88 x 10(-3), OR = 0.66). We also confirmed association in 2,766 cases of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma cases and the same 11,013 control subjects (PLCE1, P(Han for GCA) = 1.74 x 10(-39), OR = 1.55 and C20orf54, P(Han for GCA) = 3.02 x 10(-3), OR = 0.91). PLCE1 and C20orf54 have important biological implications for both ESCC and GCA. PLCE1 might regulate cell growth, differentiation, apoptosis and angiogenesis. C20orf54 is responsible for transporting riboflavin, and deficiency of riboflavin has been documented as a risk factor for ESCC and GCA.

Regulation of pharyngeal motility by FMRFamide and related peptides in the medicinal leech, Hirudo medicinalis

The medicinal leech possesses FMRFamide-like immunoreactivity in neural processes and somata associated with the pharynx and pharyngeal ganglia. The pharynx possessed about 25 immunoreactive somata; about half of the approximately 20 neurons of the pharyngeal ganglia were immunoreactive. We provide brief descriptions of several neurons located in the first neuromere of the subesophageal ganglion involved in controlling pharyngeal motility. Double-labeling experiments indicate that one of these cells, named Swallow neuron 1 (SW1), contains a FMRFamide-like peptide. Stimulation of SW1 caused the mouth to open and the pharynx to dilate. Upon termination of SW1 stimulation, the mouth closed, and a peristaltic wave progressed from the mouth down the length of the pharynx. Stimulation of SW1 did not produce 1:1 postsynaptic potentials in pharyngeal muscle cells. Thus, SW1 is apparently not a motor neuron. The pharynx responded to application of FMRFamide and related peptides by producing a series of 20- to 35-s phasic contractions superimposed upon an increase in basal tonus. The peptide-induced response was quantified by measuring increases in basal tonus, peak tension, and integrated area. Although there were some differences in the order of potency depending upon which parameter was considered, the approximate order of potency of RFamide peptides tested was: pQDPFLRFamide > or = FMRFamide approximately YGGFMRFamide > or = YMRFamide approximately FLRFamide approximately GGKYMRFamide approximately YLRFamide > leucomyosuppressin approximately perisulfakinin. Except for differences in potency, each of the RFamide peptides produced similar contractile waveforms. FMRFamide-induced responses were reduced by the protein kinase C inhibitor bisindolylmaleimide I (10 microM), the nonspecific protein kinase inhibitor H-7 (50 microM), and were increased by the protein phosphatase inhibitor okadaic acid (1 microM). However, the FMRFamide-induced response was unaffected by the protein kinase A inhibitor H-89 (1 microM), the phosphodiesterase inhibitor theophylline (1 mM), the phospholipase A(2) inhibitor OBAA (0.1 microM) or the cation channel blocker amiloride (100 microM).