Predicting peripartum infection in laboring patients at high risk in Cameroon, Africa.
Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol 2024;
293:9-14. [PMID:
38096705 DOI:
10.1016/j.ejogrb.2023.12.003]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2023] [Revised: 11/07/2023] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 02/09/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To develop a predictive model for peripartum infection among high risk laboring patients in Cameroon, Africa.
STUDY DESIGN
We conducted a secondary analysis of the Cameroon Antibiotic Prophylaxis Trial (NCT03248297), a multicenter 3-arm double-blind randomized controlled trial of oral azithromycin ± amoxicillin among term pregnancies with prolonged labor or rupture of membranes in Cameroon 1/2018-5/2020. Patients with chorioamnionitis prior to randomization, study drug contraindications, or planned cesarean were excluded. The outcome of interest was a composite of maternal peripartum infection (chorioamnionitis, endometritis, sepsis by World Health Organization criteria, wound infection/abscess) diagnosed up to 6 weeks postpartum. Potential predictors were compared between patients with and without the composite outcome, and evaluated at a 0.05 alpha level. Statistically significant exposures were analyzed using multivariable regression (to generate adjusted odds ratios and 95 % confidence intervals) with backwards selection to generate a parsimonious model. Receiver operating characteristic curves with associated area under the curve assessed the model's predictive ability. A nomogram based on the final best fit multivariable model was constructed.
RESULTS
Of 756 patients in the parent trial, 652 were analyzed: 45 (7 %) had peripartum infection. Those with infection were more likely to be nulliparous, lower education level, higher gestational age, receive antibiotics per hospital protocols, and undergo cesarean. In our best-fit multivariable model, none/primary education (vs university), cesarean birth, and antibiotic receipt per physician discretion (vs for cesarean prophylaxis) were significantly associated with increased infection risk. This model was moderately predictive (AUC = 0.75, 95 % CI 0.67-0.82). When using this 3 factor model, for a patient with a cesarean birth, receipt of antibiotics per physician discretion, and university education, the probability of peripartum infection was 35 % (95 % CI 0.11-0.73).
CONCLUSIONS
While several variables such as parity are associated with infectious morbidity within 6 weeks among high risk laboring patients in Cameroon, only education level, antibiotic indication, and cesarean birth were independently associated, and a model including these 3 factors was moderately predictive. Validation of our findings in a larger population is warranted.
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