A preoperative risk score based on early recurrence for estimating outcomes after resection of hepatocellular carcinoma in the non-cirrhotic liver

BACKGROUND

Liver resection is the mainstay treatment option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in the non-cirrhotic liver (NCL-HCC), but almost half of these patients will experience a recurrence within five years of surgery. Therefore, we aimed to develop a rationale-based risk evaluation tool to assist surgeons in recurrence-related treatment planning for NCL-HCC.

METHODS

We analyzed single-center data from 263 patients who underwent liver resection for NCL-HCC. Using machine learning modeling, we first determined an optimal cut-off point to discriminate early versus late relapses based on time to recurrence. We then constructed a risk score based on preoperative variables to forecast outcomes according to recurrence-free survival.

RESULTS

We computed an optimal cut-off point for early recurrence at 12 months post-surgery. We identified macroscopic vascular invasion, multifocal tumor, and spontaneous tumor rupture as predictor variables of outcomes associated with early recurrence and integrated them into a scoring system. We thus stratified, with high concordance, three groups of patients on a graduated scale of recurrence-related survival.

CONCLUSION

We constructed a preoperative risk score to estimate outcomes after liver resection in NCL-HCC patients. Hence, this score makes it possible to rationally stratify patients based on recurrence risk assessment for better treatment planning.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in Peru: A molecular description of an unconventional clinical presentation

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most frequent cancer of digestive tract tumors in Peru, with a high mortality rate of 17.7 per 100,000 inhabitants. A significant number of HCC cases in Peru do not follow the classic clinical epidemiology of the disease described in other parts of the world. Those patients present with a distinct transcriptome profile and a singular tumor process, suggesting a particular type of hepatocarcinogenesis in a portion of the Peruvian population. Our aim was to understand the clinical and biologic involvement of the epigenetic profile (methylation) and gene expression (transcriptome) of HCC in Peruvian patients.

METHODS

HCC and liver transcriptome and DNA methylation profiles were evaluated in 74 Peruvian patients.

RESULTS

When grouped by age, there was greater DNA methylation in younger patients with HCC but no differences with respect to the transcriptomic profile. A high prevalence of the hepatitis B virus (HBV) (>90%) was also observed in the younger patients with HCC. Enrichment analyses in both molecular profiles pinpointed PRC2 as an important molecular effector of that liver tumor process in Peruvian patients.

CONCLUSION

HCC in Peruvian patients has a unique molecular profile, associated with the presence of HBV, as well as overall DNA hypermethylation related to undifferentiated liver cells or cellular reprogramming.

Integrating Parasitological and Entomological Observations to Understand Malaria Transmission in Riverine Villages in the Peruvian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Remote rural riverine villages account for most of the reported malaria cases in the Peruvian Amazon. As transmission decreases due to intensive standard control efforts, malaria strategies in these villages will need to be more focused and adapted to local epidemiology.

METHODS

By integrating parasitological, entomological, and environmental observations between January 2016 and June 2017, we provided an in-depth characterization of malaria transmission dynamics in 4 riverine villages of the Mazan district, Loreto department.

RESULTS

Despite variation across villages, malaria prevalence by polymerase chain reaction in March 2016 was high (>25% in 3 villages), caused by Plasmodium vivax mainly and composed of mostly submicroscopic infections. Housing without complete walls was the main malaria risk factor, while households close to forest edges were more commonly identified as spatial clusters of malaria prevalence. Villages in the basin of the Mazan River had a higher density of adult Anopheles darlingi mosquitoes, and retained higher prevalence and incidence rates compared to villages in the basin of the Napo River despite test-and-treat interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

High heterogeneity in malaria transmission was found across and within riverine villages, resulting from interactions between the microgeographic landscape driving diverse conditions for vector development, housing structure, and human behavior.

Towards one standard treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria: Perspectives from and for the Peruvian Amazon

Malaria continues to wreak havoc in the Peruvian Amazon. Lengthy research efforts have brought important lessons on its particular epidemiology: the heterogeneous levels of transmission, the large reservoir of both asymptomatic and submicroscopic infections, the co-transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in the same areas, and the limitations of current diagnostics. Based on these features, the national elimination program could greatly benefit from simplified standard treatment, with the use of artemisinin-based combination therapy and even shorter schemes of primaquine maintaing the total dosing. It is acknowledged that there is some uncertainty regarding the true prevalence of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PD) and genetic polymorphisms related to cytochrome P-450 isozyme 2D6 functioning. Once we have a better understanding, tafenoquine, whether or not in combination with a rapid G6PD enzyme test, may become a future pathway to eliminate the otherwise hidden reservoir of the P. vivax hypnozoite through one standard Plasmodium treatment.

Diagnosis of Plasmodium vivax by Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification in Febrile Patient Samples from Loreto, Perú

Plasmodium vivax is co-endemic with Plasmodium falciparum in Peru, and optimum management requires distinguishing these two species in the blood of patients. For the differential identification of P. vivax and other Plasmodium spp., the Loopamp^TM Malaria Pan Detection Kit in combination with the Loopamp Malaria Pv Detection Kit (Eiken Chemical Co. Ltd., Tokyo, Japan) was used to evaluate 559 whole blood samples collected in 2017 from febrile patients with suspected malaria attending different health facilities in the Loreto region. The Loopamp Malaria Pan Detection Kit showed a sensitivity of 87.7% (95% CI: 83.5-91.9) and a specificity of 94.4% (95% CI: 91.9-96.9) and good agreement with PCR (Cohen's kappa 0.8266, 95% CI: 0.7792-0.874). By comparison, the Loopamp Malaria Pv Detection Kit showed a similar sensitivity (84.4%, 95% CI: 79.0-89.7) and specificity (92.4%, 95% CI: 89.7-95.0) and substantial agreement with PCR (Cohen's kappa: 0.7661, 95% CI: 0.7088-0.8234).

Economic costs analysis of uncomplicated malaria case management in the Peruvian Amazon

Background

Case management is one of the principal strategies for malaria control. This study aimed to estimate the economic costs of uncomplicated malaria case management and explore the influence of health-seeking behaviours on those costs.

Methods

A knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey was applied to 680 households of fifteen communities in Mazan-Loreto in March 2017, then a socio-economic survey was conducted in September 2017 among 161 individuals with confirmed uncomplicated malaria in the past 3 months. Total costs per episode were estimated from both provider (Ministry of Health, MoH) and patient perspectives. Direct costs were estimated using a standard costing estimation procedure, while the indirect costs considered the loss of incomes among patients, substitute labourers and companions due to illness in terms of the monthly minimum wage. Sensitivity analysis evaluated the uncertainty of the average cost per episode.

Results

The KAP survey showed that most individuals (79.3%) that had malaria went to a health facility for a diagnosis and treatment, 2.7% received those services from community health workers, and 8% went to a drugstore or were self-treated at home. The average total cost per episode in the Mazan district was US$ 161. The cost from the provider’s perspective was US$ 30.85 per episode while from the patient’s perspective the estimated cost was US$ 131 per episode. The average costs per Plasmodium falciparum episode (US$ 180) were higher than those per Plasmodium vivax episode (US$ 156) due to longer time lost from work by patients with P. falciparum infections (22.2 days) than by patients with P. vivax infections (17.0 days). The delayed malaria diagnosis (after 48 h of the onset of symptoms) was associated with the time lost from work due to illness (adjusted mean ratio 1.8; 95% CI 1.3, 2.6). The average cost per malaria episode was most sensitive to the uncertainty around the lost productivity cost due to malaria.

Conclusions

Despite the provision of free malaria case management by MoH, there is delay in seeking care and the costs of uncomplicated malaria are mainly borne by the families. These costs are not well perceived by the society and the substantial financial impact of the disease can be frequently undervalued in public policy planning.

Effectiveness of a Malaria Surveillance Strategy Based on Active Case Detection during High Transmission Season in the Peruvian Amazon

Background: Faced with the resurgence of malaria, malaria surveillance in the Peruvian Amazon incorporated consecutive active case detection (ACD) interventions using light microscopy (LM) as reactive measure in communities with an unusual high number of cases during high transmission season (HTS). We assessed the effectiveness in malaria detection of this local ACD-based strategy. Methods: A cohort study was conducted in June–July 2015 in Mazan, Loreto. Four consecutive ACD interventions at intervals of 10 days were conducted in four riverine communities (Gamitanacocha, Primero de Enero, Libertad and Urco Miraño). In each intervention, all inhabitants were visited at home, and finger-prick blood samples collected for immediate diagnosis by LM and on filter paper for later analysis by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Effectiveness was calculated by dividing the number of malaria infections detected using LM by the number of malaria infections detected by delayed qPCR. Results: Most community inhabitants (88.1%, 822/933) were present in at least one of the four ACD interventions. A total of 451 infections were detected by qPCR in 446 participants (54.3% of total participants); five individuals had two infections. Plasmodium vivax was the predominant species (79.8%), followed by P. falciparum (15.3%) and P. vivax-P. falciparum co-infections (4.9%). Most qPCR-positive infections were asymptomatic (255/448, 56.9%). The ACD-strategy using LM had an effectiveness of 22.8% (detection of 103 of the total qPCR-positive infections). Children aged 5–14 years, and farming as main economic activity were associated with P. vivax infections. Conclusions: Although the ACD-strategy using LM increased the opportunity of detecting and treating malaria infections during HTS, the number of detected infections was considerably lower than the real burden of infections (those detected by qPCR).

Micro-epidemiology and spatial heterogeneity of P. vivax parasitaemia in riverine communities of the Peruvian Amazon: A multilevel analysis

Malaria has steadily increased in the Peruvian Amazon over the last five years. This study aimed to determine the parasite prevalence and micro-geographical heterogeneity of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia in communities of the Peruvian Amazon. Four cross-sectional active case detection surveys were conducted between May and July 2015 in four riverine communities in Mazan district. Analysis of 2785 samples of 820 individuals nested within 154 households for Plasmodium parasitaemia was carried out using light microscopy and qPCR. The spatio-temporal distribution of Plasmodium parasitaemia, dominated by P. vivax, was shown to cluster at both household and community levels. Of enrolled individuals, 47% had at least one P. vivax parasitaemia and 10% P. falciparum, by qPCR, both of which were predominantly sub-microscopic and asymptomatic. Spatial analysis detected significant clustering in three communities. Our findings showed that communities at small-to-moderate spatial scales differed in P. vivax parasite prevalence, and multilevel Poisson regression models showed that such differences were influenced by factors such as age, education, and location of households within high-risk clusters, as well as factors linked to a local micro-geographic context, such as travel and occupation. Complex transmission patterns were found to be related to human mobility among communities in the same micro-basin.

Population Genetics of Plasmodium vivax in the Peruvian Amazon

Background

Characterizing the parasite dynamics and population structure provides useful information to understand the dynamic of transmission and to better target control interventions. Despite considerable efforts for its control, vivax malaria remains a major health problem in Peru. In this study, we have explored the population genetics of Plasmodium vivax isolates from Iquitos, the main city in the Peruvian Amazon, and 25 neighbouring peri-urban as well as rural villages along the Iquitos-Nauta Road.

Methodology/ Results

From April to December 2008, 292 P. vivax isolates were collected and successfully genotyped using 14 neutral microsatellites. Analysis of the molecular data revealed a similar proportion of monoclonal and polyclonal infections in urban areas, while in rural areas monoclonal infections were predominant (p = 0.002). Multiplicity of infection was higher in urban (MOI = 1.5–2) compared to rural areas (MOI = 1) (p = 0.003). The level of genetic diversity was similar in all areas (He = 0.66–0.76, p = 0.32) though genetic differentiation between areas was substantial (PHI_PT = 0.17, p<0.0001). Principal coordinate analysis showed a marked differentiation between parasites from urban and rural areas. Linkage disequilibrium was detected in all the areas (IAs = 0.08–0.49, for all p<0.0001). Gene flow among the areas was stablished through Bayesian analysis of migration models. Recent bottleneck events were detected in 4 areas and a recent parasite expansion in one of the isolated areas. In total, 87 unique haplotypes grouped in 2 or 3 genetic clusters described a sub-structured parasite population.

Conclusion/Significance

Our study shows a sub-structured parasite population with clonal propagation, with most of its components recently affected by bottleneck events. Iquitos city is the main source of parasite spreading for all the peripheral study areas. The routes of transmission and gene flow and the reduction of the parasite population described are important from the public health perspective as well for the formulation of future control policies.

We present the population genetics of malaria vivax parasites in a large area of the Peruvian Amazon. Our results showed that the parasite population had a predominant clonal propagation, reproducing themselves with identically or closely related parasites; therefore, the same genetic characteristics are maintained in the offspring. The clonal propagation may favour the higher levels of genetic differentiation among the parasites from isolated areas compared to areas where human migration is common. The patterns of gene flow have been established, finding Iquitos city as a reservoir of parasite genetic variability. Moreover, a recent reduction of the parasite population was observed in areas where recent control activities were performed. This research provides a picture of the nature and dynamics of the parasite population which have a significant impact in the malaria epidemiology; therefore, this knowledge is crucial for the development of efficient control policies.

Plasmodium vivax malaria at households: spatial clustering and risk factors in a low endemicity urban area of the northwestern Peruvian coast

BACKGROUND

Peru has presented a decreasing malaria trend during the last decade, particularly in areas on northwestern coast; however, a limited number of cases continues to be reported yearly mainly in malaria hotspots.

METHODS

A two-phase study was conducted to identify spatial and temporal clusters of incident Plasmodium vivax malaria, as well as to determine risk factors associated with households (HH) presenting P. vivax malaria episodes in an urban area of the northwestern Peruvian Coast from June 2008 to May 2010. In the first stage, a full census of the study population was conducted, including geo-referencing of reported P. vivax episodes. In the second stage, a population-based case-control study allowed the identification of risk factors associated with HHs reporting episodes. A total of 117 case HHs with reported P. vivax and 117 control HHs without malaria episodes were assessed. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to interview the head of households and to collect data on HH location and structure, availability of public services, preventive malaria measures, family member with outdoor occupation (farmer, moto-taxi driver), and other HH characteristics. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine case-HH risk factors. SaTScan was used to detect spatial and temporal P. vivax malaria clusters.

RESULTS

The most likely spatial cluster of malaria incidence included 1,040 people (22.4% of total population) in 245 HHs (24.6% of total HHs) accounting for 283 malaria episodes (40.1% of total episodes) during the study period (RR = 2.3, p < 0.001). A temporal cluster was also identified from April 12, 2009 to July 4, 2009 accounting for 355 malaria episodes (50.4% of total episodes) (RR = 7.2, p = 0.001). Factors significantly associated with case HHs compared with control HHs were: proximity to water drain < 200 metres (OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.3, 4.0); HH size >5 individuals (OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.2); lack of potable water (OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1, 3.2); and having domestic and peridomestic animals (OR = 3.6, 95% CI: 1.3, 9.5).

CONCLUSION

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence is highly heterogeneous in space and time in the urban study area with important geographical and housing risk factors associated with symptomatic episodes.

Assessing malaria transmission in a low endemicity area of north-western Peru

BACKGROUND

Where malaria endemicity is low, control programmes need increasingly sensitive tools for monitoring malaria transmission intensity (MTI) and to better define health priorities. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a low endemicity area of the Peruvian north-western coast to assess the MTI using both molecular and serological tools.

METHODS

Epidemiological, parasitological and serological data were collected from 2,667 individuals in three settlements of Bellavista district, in May 2010. Parasite infection was detected using microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Antibodies to Plasmodium vivax merozoite surface protein-119 (PvMSP1₁₉) and to Plasmodium falciparum glutamate-rich protein (PfGLURP) were detected by ELISA. Risk factors for exposure to malaria (seropositivity) were assessed by multivariate survey logistic regression models. Age-specific antibody prevalence of both P. falciparum and P. vivax were analysed using a previously published catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood for generating seroconversion rates (SCR).

RESULTS

The overall parasite prevalence by microscopy and PCR were extremely low: 0.3 and 0.9%, respectively for P. vivax, and 0 and 0.04%, respectively for P. falciparum, while seroprevalence was much higher, 13.6% for P. vivax and 9.8% for P. falciparum. Settlement, age and occupation as moto-taxi driver during previous year were significantly associated with P. falciparum exposure, while age and distance to the water drain were associated with P. vivax exposure. Likelihood ratio tests supported age seroprevalence curves with two SCR for both P. vivax and P. falciparum indicating significant changes in the MTI over time. The SCR for PfGLURP was 19-fold lower after 2002 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.022 versus λ2 = 0.431), and the SCR for PvMSP1₁₉ was four-fold higher after 2006 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.024 versus λ2 = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

Combining molecular and serological tools considerably enhanced the capacity of detecting current and past exposure to malaria infections and related risks factors in this very low endemicity area. This allowed for an improved characterization of the current human reservoir of infections, largely hidden and heterogeneous, as well as providing insights into recent changes in species specific MTIs. This approach will be of key importance for evaluating and monitoring future malaria elimination strategies.