Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Associations between diabetes and cancer: A 10-year national population-based retrospective cohort study

AIMS

To investigate the risk of cancer in people with diabetes compared to the population without diabetes and to gain insight into the timely association between diabetes and cancer at national level.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyse the role of diabetes in the development of cancer, based on service utilisation and antidiabetic dispensing data of the population between 2010 and 2021. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression were used to examine how diabetes status, in relationship with age and sex are related to the time to cancer diagnosis.

RESULTS

Examining a population of 3 681 774 individuals, people with diabetes have a consistently higher risk for cancer diagnosis for each cancer site studied. Diabetes adds the highest risk for pancreatic cancer (HR = 2.294, 99 % CI: 2.099; 2.507) and for liver cancer (HR = 1.830, 99 % CI: 1.631; 2.054); it adds the lowest - but still significant - risk for breast cancer (HR = 1.137, 99 % CI: 1.055; 1.227) and prostate cancer (HR = 1.171, 99 % CI: 1.071; 1.280).The difference in cancer rate is driven by the younger age group (40-54 years: for patients with diabetes 5.4 % vs. controls 4.4 %; 70-89 years: for patients with diabetes 12.7 % vs. controls 12.4 %). There are no consistent results whether the presence of diabetes increases the risk of cancer diagnosis differently in males and females. The cancer incidence starts to increase before the diagnosis of diabetes and peaks in the year after. By the year after the start of the inclusion date, the incidence is 114/10,000 population in the control group, vs 195/10,000 population in the group with diabetes. Following this, the incidence drops close to the control group.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening activities should be revised and the guidelines on diabetes should be complemented with recommendations on cancer prevention also considering that the cancer incidence is highest around the time of the diagnosis of diabetes. For prostate cancer, our results contradict many previous studies, and further research is recommended to clarify this.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Acute Pain Services and pain-related patient-reported outcomes in Hungarian hospitals

BACKGROUND

Postoperative pain management is an important part of surgical care, where Acute Pain Service offers added value in terms of patient outcomes and costs. The technology, however, has hardly been adopted in Hungary, with only two hospitals operating Acute Pain Service and whose performance has not been evaluated yet. This research compared pain management outcomes of surgical, orthopedic, and traumatology patients in Hungarian hospitals with and without Acute Pain Service.

METHODS

We recruited 348 patients, 120 in the APS group and 228 in the control group, whose experience was surveyed with an adapted version of the American Pain Society Patient Outcome Questionnaire. The questionnaire covered pain intensity, pain interference with physical and emotional functions, side effects, patient satisfaction, information received, and participation in treatment decisions. The differences were analyzed by Fisher's exact test and Mann-Whitney U test.

RESULTS

The APS group showed better results with lower pain intensity scores regarding worst postoperative pain (χ2 = 18.919, p = 0.0043). They reported less pain interference with activities in bed (χ2 = 21.978, p = 0.0006) and out of bed (χ2 = 14.341, p = 0.0129). Furthermore, patients in the APS group experienced fewer pain-management-related side effects, like nausea (χ2 = 15.240, p = 0.0101), drowsiness (χ2 = 26.965, p = 0.0001), and dizziness (χ2 = 13.980, p = 0.0124). However, patient information (χ2 = 3.480, p = 0.0945) and patient satisfaction (χ2 = 5.781, p = 0.2127) did not differ significantly between the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings confirm earlier international evidence on the benefits of Acute Pain Service in postoperative pain management and support the wider adoption of the technology in Hungarian hospitals. Nevertheless, close attention should be paid to patient information and involvement as better outcomes alone do not necessarily increase patient satisfaction.

A concept for multi-winner tenders for medicinal products with balancing between efficient prices, long-term competition and sustainability of supply

Achieving price efficiency via tenders, the sustainability of competition, and the prevention of shortages are hot topics in the debates about shaping the pharmaceutical markets. Single-winner tenders receive growing criticism for concentrating on achieving low prices at the expense of the long-term maintenance of a competitive pharmaceutical industry, the security of continuous supply, and disregarding the therapeutic needs of patient populations with specific conditions. This paper aims at drafting a concept to assist the design of multi-winner tenders for medicinal products with a focus on supply and sales guarantees, price efficiency, and equity in access. The concept shall be generally applicable to all kinds of medicinal products including generics, biosimilars, and on-patent products in the out- and in-patient sector. Principles for multi-winner tenders for medicinal products are set and a number of delimitations are made in order to get rid of factors that prevent clairvoyance amid the various pricing and reimbursement systems when designing a concept. The steps to plan and implement a multi-winner tendering procedure are drafted on the basis of the defined principles. The tender should consist of planning, bidding, preparation, sales, and evaluation phases. Pharmaceutical companies shall make bids with price and quantity pairs, which shall be ranked by prices and if applicable then taking into account other factors. The tenderer shall predefine market shares to the various places of the ranking. A double ceiling shall be applicable for the sales of the winners: their sales must not exceed their quantity offer and the predefined market share applicable to their place in the ranking. The implementation of the concept will require the careful adjustment of the tender conditions to the specificities of the pharmaceutical market concerned on the one hand and to the local pricing and reimbursement system on the other hand.

Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.

Findings

In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of -0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = -0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = -0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = -0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = -0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = -0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.

Interpretation

The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively.

Funding

The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38).

The First Comprehensive Survey of the Practice of Postoperative Pain Management in Hungarian Hospitals - a Descriptive Study

BACKGROUND

Pain management is a key issue in health care. Providers adopt promising technological developments, like Acute Pain Service, at differing speeds, with countries, such as the USA and Germany taking the lead. Where Hungary stands is unknown, as the practice of pain management has not yet been comprehensively reviewed in that country.

AIM

To explore the practice of postoperative pain management in Hungarian hospitals by addressing the questions of who is responsible for it, who measures pain and how, what kind of pain relief technologies are used, and who takes care of patients during duty hours.

METHODS

We carried out a survey covering Hungarian hospitals with operational license for surgery, traumatology, orthopedics and anesthesiology between December 2019 and March 2020. The response rate was 72%, and we analyzed 135 questionnaires.

RESULTS

We identified only 2 hospitals with an Acute Pain Service. In the majority of hospitals, the attending physician orders pain relief therapy. During duty hours the surgeon on duty takes care of pain management in 52.1% of the cases. Among pain relief therapies, intravenous infusions (74.1%) and oral medication (67.4%) are the most frequent. Ward nurses measure postoperative pain (77.8%) with unidimensional scales. According to 59.7% of the respondents, pain is not measured and documented at rest. Written protocols are available in 34.4% of the departments.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with other countries, pain management in Hungary lags behind with significant room for improvement. Development and implementation of pain management protocols with appropriate education is the key intervention point.

Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4-131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4-115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (-70·7% [-77·2 to -61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7-61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7-65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5-14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6-35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3-35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4-25·2) in those aged 15-49 years, 30·5% (24·1-36·9) in those aged 50-69 years, and 21·9% (16·8-27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5-27·9) in those aged 15-49 years and 18·2% (12·5-24·5) in those aged 50-69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2-15·8) of LRI deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO European region in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents one of the most crucial threats to public health and modern health care. Previous studies have identified challenges with estimating the magnitude of the problem and its downstream effect on human health and mortality. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive set of regional and country-level estimates of AMR burden in the WHO European region to date.

METHODS

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for the WHO European region and its countries in 2019. Our methodological approach consisted of five broad components: the number of deaths in which infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antimicrobial drug of interest, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. These components were then used to estimate the disease burden by using two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (considering an alternative scenario where infections with resistant pathogens are replaced with susceptible ones) and deaths associated with AMR (considering an alternative scenario where drug-resistant infections would not occur at all). Data were solicited from a wide array of international stakeholders; these included research hospitals, surveillance networks, and infection databases maintained by private laboratories and medical technology companies. We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity.

FINDINGS

We estimated 541 000 deaths (95% UI 370 000-763 000) associated with bacterial AMR and 133 000 deaths (90 100-188 000) attributable to bacterial AMR in the whole WHO European region in 2019. The largest fatal burden of AMR in the region came from bloodstream infections, with 195 000 deaths (104 000-333 000) associated with resistance, followed by intra-abdominal infections (127 000 deaths [81 900-185 000]) and respiratory infections (120 000 deaths [94 500-154 000]). Seven leading pathogens were responsible for about 457 000 deaths associated with resistance in 53 countries of this region; these pathogens were, in descending order of mortality, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterococcus faecium, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Acinetobacter baumannii. Methicillin-resistant S aureus was shown to be the leading pathogen-drug combination in 27 countries for deaths attributable to AMR, while aminopenicillin-resistant E coli predominated in 47 countries for deaths associated with AMR.

INTERPRETATION

The high levels of resistance for several important bacterial pathogens and pathogen-drug combinations, together with the high mortality rates associated with these pathogens, show that AMR is a serious threat to public health in the WHO European region. Our regional and cross-country analyses open the door for strategies that can be tailored to leading pathogen-drug combinations and the available resources in a specific location. These results underscore that the most effective way to tackle AMR in this region will require targeted efforts and investments in conjunction with continuous outcome-based research endeavours.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Lifelong vaccination strategy as a tool against pandemics in Hungary

Összefoglaló. Különböző tényezők következtében az új és újra felbukkanó fertőző betegségek megjelenésére a 21. században egyre nagyobb az esély, ezzel párhuzamosan a pandémiák kialakulása is nagyobb valószínűségű. A 2019-ben felbukkant COVID-19-járvány azt is közvetíti számunkra, hogy egyes új és újra jelentkező fertőző betegségek - az eredményes intézkedések elmaradása, késlekedése esetén - gyorsan terjedhetnek. A fertőző betegségek elleni harc egyik fő eszköze a védőoltás segítségével történő immunizáció. A jelen tanulmány célja bemutatni a védőoltások előnyeit, fókuszba helyezve az elöregedő társadalomban az élethosszan tartó immunizációs stratégiának a személyes egészségre ható, közegészségügyi, gazdasági, valamint társadalmi érdekeit. Az oltás előnyeinek minél nagyobb fokú kihasználásához egy élethosszan tartó immunizációs stratégia felállítása javasolható, amelynek aspektusait és gyakorlatba ültetésének lehetséges lépéseit foglaltuk össze közleményünkben. Orv Hetil. 2022; 163(14): 535-543. Summary. Due to various factors, the chances of infectious disease emergence or re-emergence have increased in the 21st century, thus, the likelihood of new emerging pandemics has also increased. The COVID-19 pandemic, which appeared in 2019, has highlighted that certain new and re-emerging infectious diseases - in the case of lack or delay in effective measures - can spread very rapidly. The main tool for the fight against infectious diseases is immunization through vaccination. While focusing on the personal health, public health, economic and societal benefits of a lifelong immunization strategy, especially in light of the aging society, the goal of this paper is to present the benefits of vaccines. In order to increase the added value of vaccinations it is recommended to create a lifelong immunization strategy. Our paper summarizes the relevant aspects of such a strategy, highlighting potential practical steps towards implementation. Orv Hetil. 2022; 163(14): 535-543.

Smart & Safe – digitization strategy from a patient safety perspective

Összefoglaló. Bevezetés és célkitűzés: Az egészségügyi intézmények digitalizációs fejlesztése kapcsán célszerű egy digitális szervezeti stratégia megalkotása a betegbiztonsági és kiberbiztonsági szempontok figyelembevételével. E tanulmány célja az egészségügyi intézményi digitalizáció betegbiztonságra gyakorolt hatásainak átfogó szakirodalmi megismerése és a nemzetközi szakirodalmi közlések tapasztalatai alapján összeállított, a hazai gyakorlatban használható intézményi stratégiai javaslat megalkotása és bemutatása. Módszer: A szerzők irodalomkutatást végeztek, angol és német nyelvű közleményeket kerestek több adatbázisban. A közlemények tartalmát előre meghatározott szempontok szerint gyűjtötték. Eredmények: A szerzők 39 közleményt értékeltek, 12 közleményt részletesen mutatnak be. A digitalizációs fejlesztések gyakorlati tapasztalatait és veszélyeit tárgyalják. Az ajánlások főként stratégiai és kiberbiztonsági szempontokat, oktatás- és kompetenciafejlesztést javasolnak. Következtetés: A szerzők hazai egészségügyi intézmények számára javasolják betegbiztonsági és kiberbiztonsági szempontokat figyelembe vevő digitalizációs fejlesztési stratégia megalkotását, amellyel a betegellátással foglalkozók szakmai szempontjainak érvényesülését segítik. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(47): 1876-1884.

SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE

In connection with the digitalisation development of healthcare institutions, it is desirable to create a digital organizational strategy, which takes into account patient safety and cyber security aspects. The aim of this study is to familiarize doctors with the comprehensive study of the effects of the digitalisation of healthcare institutions on patient safety and to create and present an institutional strategic proposal, which has been compiled based on the experience of international literature publications.

METHOD

A study of the relevant literature was conducted, searching through publications in English and German in several databases. The content of the publications was collected according to pre-defined criteria.

RESULTS

39 articles were evaluated out of which 12 are presented in detail. The practical experiences and risks of the digitalisation developments are discussed. The recommendations principally suggest strategic and cyber security aspects, education and competency improvement.

CONCLUSION

The creation of a digitalisation development strategy, which considers patient safety and cyber security aspects, should be considered also in Hungarian healthcare institutions. This strategy would also help the justification and realization of the professional priorities of healthcare providers. Orv Hetil. 2021; 162(47): 1876-1884.

Acute Pain Service in Hungarian hospitals

Background

Surgical procedures play an increasing role among health technologies to treat diseases. Pain often accompanies such diseases, both as a result of their pathology, but also as the side-effect of the intervention itself, and it is not only a burdensome subjective feeling, but adversely affects the recovery process, can induce complications and increases treatment costs. Acute Pain Service Teams are becoming increasingly widespread in hospitals to address post-operative pain, yet we have so far no data on how many hospitals have actually adopted this technology in Hungary.

Objectives

The main objectives of our study were to assess the prevalence of Acute Pain Service Teams, map their structure and operation, as well as to understand the barriers and conducive factors of their establishment in Hungarian hospitals.

Methods

We carried out a survey among the 72 hospitals with surgical departments. The questionnaire was filled in by 52 providers, which gave us a response rate of 72.2%.

Results

Our results show, that only two of the responding hospitals have Acute Pain Service Teams albeit their structure and operation are in line with the literature. In the 50 hospitals without such teams, financing difficulties and human resources shortages are mentioned to be the most important obstacles of their establishment, but the lack of initiative and interest on the part of the specialities concerned are also an important barrier.

Conclusions

Lagging behind the more affluent EU member states, but similarly to other Central and Eastern European countries, Acute Pain Service has been hardly adopted by Hungarian hospitals. Hungarian health professionals know the technology and would support its wider introduction, if the technical feasibility barriers could be overcome. Health policy should play a more active role to facilitate change in this area, the investment in which promises a substantial return in terms of health gains and cost savings.

Health related quality of life and satisfaction with care of stroke patients in Budapest: A substudy of the EuroHOPE project

BACKGROUND

Disadvantaged socioeconomic status is associated with higher stroke incidence and mortality, and higher readmission rate. We aimed to assess the effect of socioeconomic factors on case fatality, health related quality of life (HRQoL), and satisfaction with care of stroke survivors in the framework of the European Health Care Outcomes, Performance and Efficiency (EuroHOPE) study in Hungary, one of the leading countries regarding stroke mortality.

METHODS

We evaluated 200 consecutive patients admitted for first-ever ischemic stroke in a single center and performed a follow-up at 3 months after stroke. We recorded pre- and post-stroke socioeconomic factors, and assessed case fatality, HRQoL and patient satisfaction with the care received. Stroke severity at onset was scored by the National Institutes of Health Stroke scale (NIHSS), disability at discharge from acute care was evaluated by the modified Rankin Score (mRS). To evaluate HRQoL and patient satisfaction with care we used the EQ-5D-5L, 15D and EORTC IN PATSAT 32 questionnaires.

RESULTS

At 3 months after stroke the odds of death was significantly increased by stroke severity (NIHSS, OR = 1.209, 95%CI: 1.125-1.299, p<0.001) and age (OR = 1.045, 95%CI: 1.003-1.089, p = 0.038). In a multiple linear regression model, independent predictors of HRQoL were age, disability at discharge, satisfaction with care, type of social dwelling after stroke, length of acute hospital stay and rehospitalization. Satisfaction with care was influenced negatively by stroke severity (Coef. = -1.111, 95%C.I.: -2.159- -0.062, p = 0.040), and positively by having had thrombolysis (Coef. = 25.635, 95%C.I.: 5.212-46.058, p = 0.016) and better HRQoL (Coef. = 22.858, 95%C.I.: 6.007-39.708, p = 0.009).

CONCLUSION

In addition to age, disability, and satisfaction with care, length of hospital stay and type of social dwelling after stroke also predicted HRQoL. Long-term outcome after stroke could be improved by reducing time spent in hospital, i.e. by developing home care rehabilitation facilities thus reducing the need for readmission to inpatient care.

Az akutfájdalom-kezelő szolgálat szerepe a műtét utáni fájdalomcsillapításban

A perioperatív fájdalomcsillapítás kérdésköre jelentős kihívás az egészségügyi ellátást végzők számára. A nem jól ellenőrzött, műtét utáni fájdalom szövődményekhez vezethet. A világszerte elterjedt szervezési módszer, az ’Acute Pain Service’ teamek kialakítása bizonyítottan növeli a posztoperatív fájdalomcsillapítás eredményességét. Összefoglalónk célja, hogy közlemények alapján leírja az akutfájdalom-kezelő szolgálat fogalmát, szervezeti struktúráját, minőségi kritériumait és a külföldön történt bevezetés modelljeit. Több adatbázisban történt keresés után PICO-technikával szisztematikusan áttekintettük az irodalmat, és 263 absztrakt került értékelésre. A világ számos országában működtetik a szolgálatot, alapvetően háromféle működési struktúrában. A személyzet aneszteziológusból és fájdalomterápiára specializálódott ápolószemélyzetből áll. A teamek működésének leírására 5 minőségi kritériumot hoztak létre, de fontos szerepe van a szolgálatnak a betegek és a személyzet oktatásában és a fájdalomterápiás protokollok kialakításában. Javasoljuk, hogy hazánkban is készüljön felmérés a szolgálatok működéséről és a minőségi kritériumok érvényesüléséről a posztoperatív fájdalomcsillapítási ellátás terén. Orv Hetil. 2020; 161(15): 575–581.

[Who knows what? - About patient handover. Experiences of a Hungarian and Polish sample knowledge survey]

Introduction: The most common reason for the adverse events in healthcare is communication. Due to the development of health technologies and the increasing specialization of care, more and more healthcare professionals are involved in the treatment of patients, resulting in an increasingly important role and risk for patient handover. Aim: To present the current state of knowledge of patient handover through the results of an international project. Method: Self-developed, anonymous questionnaires with single and multiple choice questions were used to investigate handover knowledge among healthcare workers in 3 Hungarian and 3 Polish hospitals. The frequency of responses was analyzed according to their correctness. The factors that can influence the knowledge were studied using a regression model in the Hungarian sample. Results: The questionnaire was completed by 63% of the 2963 employees who received the questionnaires. In the two countries, there was no significant difference in the proportion of correct responses. Nearly half of the responders (49.4%-45.7%) gave the right answers to the question about the definition of patient handover. The lowest rate of correct answers (14.4%-11.1%) was given to elements of patient handover techniques. The difficulty of the questions also showed a similar pattern. Conclusion: Based on the results, it can be concluded that knowledge of handover needs to be improved in both countries. Although healthcare providers have some knowledge about handover, it cannot be considered accurate and complete. It is important to promote the knowledge and practice of handover together for the safety of patients and healthcare providers. Orv Hetil. 2019; 160(44): 1735-1743.

[Methods of the EuroHOPE research program]

The European Health Care Outcomes, Performance and Efficiency research was financed by the European Union between 2010 and 2013. In this program a new methodology was developed which made the analysis of regularly collected data and international benchmarking of the healthcare results of 5 socially and economically critical diagnosis group between the 7 participant countries possible. This paper presents the most important areas of the development, such as (1) the principles of the methodology, (2) the definition of available databases, code systems, (3) the events to be analysed, (4) the general rules of analyses and indicator development, (5) the exact methodology of data collection, processing, and analysis, (6) the methods of risk adjustment, (7) and the development of the standardised database. The databases which include all information of all patients and healthcare activities serve as perfect inexhaustible data sources for decision makers, healthcare personnel, and researchers. The indicator results of this program serve as starting point for further root cause analysis and development measures based on the results of the abovementioned analyses. Orv. Hetil., 2016, 157(41), 1619-1625.

[Changing of the patient safety culture in the pilot institutes of the Hungarian accreditation program]

INTRODUCTION

The accreditation system for health care providers was developed in Hungary aiming to increase safety, efficiency, and efficacy of care and optimise its organisational operation.

AIM

The aim of this study was to assess changes of organisational culture in pilot institutes of the accreditation program.

METHOD

7 volunteer pilot institutes using an internationally validated questionnaire were included. The impact study was performed in 2 rounds: the first before the introduction of the accreditation program, and the second a year later, when the standards were already known. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Statistically significant (p<0.05) positive changes were detected in hospitals in three dimensions: organisational learning - continuous improvement, communication openness, teamwork within the unit while in outpatient clinics: overall perceptions of patient safety, and patient safety within the unit.

CONCLUSIONS

Organisational culture in the observed institutes needs improvement, but positive changes already point to a safer care. Orv. Hetil., 2016, 157(42), 1667-1673.

[Main characteristics of the care of acute myocardial infarction in Hungary between 2005-2009, based on the results of the EuroHOPE research]

INTRODUCTION

The EuroHOPE research developed the standardised methodology of the analysis of the healthcare process.

AIM

The aims of the authors were to analyze the care of acute myocardial infarction in Hungary and to compare the results to those of the partner countries.

METHOD

The authors analyzed the application of early and late invasive interventions, medication purchase, and mortality. The results were compared to Finnish, Norwegian, Italian, Scottish and Swedish data.

RESULTS

By the end of the observed period, approximately half of the patients received early treatment, which is an internationally acceptable result. Purchase of statins, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, and angiotensin receptor blockers was around 90%, but the application of beta-blockers has decreased for unknown reason. The mortality rate has improved, but it was still significantly worse than that in the partnering countries. One year mortality in the early intervention group was 1.5 times higher, and in the late intervention group was 2 times higher than the second worst results.

CONCLUSIONS

The causal analysis concerning the professional activities, operational practices, and the role of the patients in the observed period is highly recommended. For more detailed analysis it is necessary to follow the trends and to separate the diagnoses of ST- elevation and non-ST-elevation acute myocardial infarction. Orv. Hetil., 2016, 157(41), 1626-1634.

A jelentési és tanulórendszerek szerepe a betegbiztonság javításában

The principles and requirements of a patient safety related reporting and learning system were defined by the World Health Organization Draft Guidelines for Adverse Event Reporting and Learning Systems published in 2005. Since then more and more Hungarian health care organizations aim to improve their patient safety culture. In order to support this goal the NEVES reporting and learning system and the series of Patient Safety Forums for training and consultation were launched in 2006 and significantly renewed recently. Current operative modifications to the Health Law emphasize patient safety, making the introduction of these programs once again necessary. Orv. Hetil., 2016, 157(26), 1035–1042.

Akkreditáció az egészségügyben

Besides the rapid development of healing procedures and healthcare, efficiency of care, institutional performance and safe treatment are receiving more and more attention in the 21st century. Accreditation, a scientifically proven tool for improving patient safety, has been used effectively in healthcare for nearly a hundred years, but only started to spread worldwide since the 1990s. The support and active participation of medical staff are determining factors in operating and getting accross the nationally developed, upcoming Hungarian accreditation system. However, this active assistance cannot be expected without the participants’ understanding of the basic goals and features of the system. The presence of the ISO certification in Hungary, well-known by healthcare professionals, further complicates the understanding and orientation among quality management and improvement systems. This paper aims to provide an overview of the history, goals, function and importance of healthcare accreditation, and its similarities and differences regarding ISO certification. Orv. Hetil., 2016, 157(4), 138–145.

Feasibility of the implementation of medication reconciliation in Hungary

Introduction: For medication safety improvement medication reconciliation was proven to be an effective method transferable between different healthcare providers and ward profiles. Aim: Gaining a better understanding of the process of reconciling medicines. Mapping the driving and restraining forces of introducing medication reconciliation. Method: A search of the literature was conducted. 19 databases were searched using 7 different search engines. The relevance of the papers was rated by two independent experts. Data were extracted based on a previously compiled extraction tool. Results: 230 articles were evaluated. Limits and driving forces of implementing medication reconciliation were set out. Often mentioned implementation obstacles were: communication issues, disengagement of the leaders, unpredictable resources and competence problems. Recommendations mainly consisted of process redesign techniques, presentation of cost-effectiveness data and arranging special training for staff. Conclusions: For improvement of medication safety in Hungarian hospitals implementing medication reconciliation should be considered. The conclusion of ongoing on-site trials as well as limits and success factors identified in this paper should taken into account. Orv. Hetil., 2014, 155(35), 1395–1405.

[Survey of drug dispensing errors in hospital wards]

Medication errors occur very frequently. The limited knowledge of contributing factors and risks prevents the development and testing of successful preventive strategies.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the differences between the ordered and dispensed drugs, and to identify the risks during medication.

METHODS

Prospective direct observation at two inpatient hospital wards.

RESULTS

The number of observed doses was 775 and the number of ordered doses was 806. It was found that from the total opportunities of 803 errors 114 errors occurred in dispensed drugs corresponding to an error rate of 14.1%. Among the different types of errors, the most important errors were: dispensing inappropriate doses (25.4%), unauthorized tablet halving or crushing (24.6%), omission errors (16.4%) and dispensing an active ingredient different from the ordered (14.2%). 87% of drug dispensing errors were considered as errors with minor consequences, while 13% of errors were potentially serious.

CONCLUSIONS

Direct observation of the drug dispensing procedure appears to be an appropriate method to observe errors in medication of hospital wards. The results of the study and the identified risks are worth to be reconsidered and prevention measures should be applied to everyday health care practice to improve patient safety.

Quality of life of patients with epilepsy (Hungarian survey)

We assessed the quality of life (QOL) of patients with epilepsy using the Quality of Life in Epilepsy Inventory (QOLIE-31). As the first step we compared our results with the data from an American survey in order to validate the test in Hungary. The results show that the Hungarian values were lower but that they followed the same trends as the American data. There was only one controversial result in the question-group of the 'the effects of treatment', which could be explained by the differences in habits and conventions, opportunities and expectations between Hungarian and American epileptic patients. We found significant differences in many aspects of quality of life with respect to (a) gender (general quality of life, seizure worry), (b) pharmacological treatment form (cognitive functions, medication effects, total score and social and role functioning) and (c) economic activity of patients (cognitive functions, emotional well-being, energy/fatigue, medication effects, overall quality of life, overall scores, seizure worry, social and role functioning). We have tried to explain the differences found by taking either the characteristics of epilepsy or the social background of the epileptic patient into consideration. Based on previous knowledge we have tried to define the situations where the assessment of quality of life for people with epilepsy, may be beneficial to their core.