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Davoodi M, Batista A, Mertel A, Senapati A, Abdussalam W, Vyskocil J, Barbieri G, Fan K, Schlechte-Welnicz W, M Calabrese J. A Web-Based COVID-19 Tool for Testing Residents in Retirement Homes: Development Study. JMIR Form Res 2023; 7:e45875. [PMID: 37988136 PMCID: PMC10664773 DOI: 10.2196/45875] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2023] [Revised: 08/06/2023] [Accepted: 08/15/2023] [Indexed: 11/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Long-term care facilities have been widely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Empirical evidence demonstrated that older people are the most impacted and are at higher risk of mortality after being infected. Regularly testing care facility residents is a practical approach to detecting infections proactively. In many cases, the care staff must perform the tests on the residents while also providing essential care, which in turn causes imbalances in their working time. Once an outbreak occurs, suppressing the spread of the virus in retirement homes (RHs) is challenging because the residents are in contact with each other, and isolation measures cannot be widely enforced. Regular testing strategies, on the other hand, have been shown to effectively prevent outbreaks in RHs. However, high-frequency testing may consume substantial staff working time, which results in a trade-off between the time invested in testing and the time spent providing essential care to residents. OBJECTIVE We developed a web application (Retirement Home Testing Optimizer) to assist RH managers in identifying effective testing schedules for residents. The outcome of the app, called the "testing strategy," is based on dividing facility residents into groups and then testing no more than 1 group per day. METHODS We created the web application by incorporating influential factors such as the number of residents and staff, the average rate of contacts, the amount of time spent to test, and constraints on the test interval and size of groups. We developed mixed integer nonlinear programming models for balancing staff workload in long-term care facilities while minimizing the expected detection time of a probable infection inside the facility. Additionally, by leveraging symmetries in the problem, we proposed a fast and efficient local search method to find the optimal solution. RESULTS Considering the number of residents and staff and other practical constraints of the facilities, the proposed application computes the optimal trade-off testing strategy and suggests the corresponding grouping and testing schedule for residents. The current version of the application is deployed on the server of the Where2Test project and is accessible on their website. The application is open source, and all contents are offered in English and German. We provide comprehensive instructions and guidelines for easy use and understanding of the application's functionalities. The application was launched in July 2022, and it is currently being tested in RHs in Saxony, Germany. CONCLUSIONS Recommended testing strategies by our application are tailored to each RH and the goals set by the managers. We advise the users of the application that the proposed model and approach focus on the expected scenarios, that is, the expected risk of infection, and they do not guarantee the avoidance of worst-case scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mansoor Davoodi
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding, Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden, Germany
| | - Ana Batista
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding, Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden, Germany
| | - Adam Mertel
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding, Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden, Germany
| | - Abhishek Senapati
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding, Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden, Germany
| | - Wildan Abdussalam
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding, Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden, Germany
| | - Jiri Vyskocil
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding, Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden, Germany
| | - Giuseppe Barbieri
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding, Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden, Germany
| | - Kai Fan
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding, Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden, Germany
| | - Weronika Schlechte-Welnicz
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding, Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden, Germany
| | - Justin M Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding, Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Dresden, Germany
- Department of Ecological Modelling, UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
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Davoodi M, Batista A, Senapati A, Calabrese JM. Personnel Scheduling during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Probabilistic Graph-Based Approach. Healthcare (Basel) 2023; 11:1917. [PMID: 37444751 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare11131917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2023] [Revised: 06/27/2023] [Accepted: 06/28/2023] [Indexed: 07/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Effective personnel scheduling is crucial for organizations to match workload demands. However, staff scheduling is sometimes affected by unexpected events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, that disrupt regular operations. Limiting the number of on-site staff in the workplace together with regular testing is an effective strategy to minimize the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19 because they spread mostly through close contact with people. Therefore, choosing the best scheduling and testing plan that satisfies the goals of the organization and prevents the virus's spread is essential during disease outbreaks. In this paper, we formulate these challenges in the framework of two Mixed Integer Non-linear Programming (MINLP) models. The first model aims to derive optimal staff occupancy and testing strategies to minimize the risk of infection among employees, while the second is aimed only at optimal staff occupancy under a random testing strategy. To solve the problems expressed in the models, we propose a canonical genetic algorithm as well as two commercial solvers. Using both real and synthetic contact networks of employees, our results show that following the recommended occupancy and testing strategy reduces the risk of infection 25-60% under different scenarios. The minimum risk of infection can be achieved when the employees follow a planned testing strategy. Further, vaccination status and interaction rate of employees are important factors in developing scheduling strategies that minimize the risk of infection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mansoor Davoodi
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), 01328 Görlitz, Germany
| | - Ana Batista
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), 01328 Görlitz, Germany
| | - Abhishek Senapati
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), 01328 Görlitz, Germany
| | - Justin M Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), 01328 Görlitz, Germany
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), 04318 Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
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Tripathi R, Reza A, Mertel A, Su G, Calabrese JM. A network-based approach to identifying correlations between phylogeny, morphological traits and occurrence of fish species in US river basins. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0287482. [PMID: 37352314 PMCID: PMC10289417 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2023] [Accepted: 06/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/25/2023] Open
Abstract
The complex network framework has been successfully used to model interactions between entities in Complex Systems in the Biological Sciences such as Proteomics, Genomics, Neuroscience, and Ecology. Networks of organisms at different spatial scales and in different ecosystems have provided insights into community assembly patterns and emergent properties of ecological systems. In the present work, we investigate two questions pertaining to fish species assembly rules in US river basins, a) if morphologically similar fish species also tend to be phylogenetically closer, and b) to what extent are co-occurring species that are phylogenetically close also morphologically similar? For the first question, we construct a network of Hydrologic Unit Code 8 (HUC8) regions as nodes with interaction strengths (edges) governed by the number of common species. For each of the modules of this network, which are found to be geographically separated, there is differential yet significant evidence that phylogenetic distance predicts morphological distance. For the second question, we construct and analyze nearest neighbor directed networks of species based on their morphological distances and phylogenetic distances. Through module detection on these networks and comparing the module-level mean phylogenetic distance and mean morphological distance with the number of basins of common occurrence of species in modules, we find that both phylogeny and morphology of species have significant roles in governing species co-occurrence, i.e. phylogenetically and morphologically distant species tend to co-exist more. In addition, between the two quantities (morphological distance and phylogentic distance), we find that morphological distance is a stronger determinant of species co-occurrences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Richa Tripathi
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
| | - Amit Reza
- Nikhef, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Institute for Gravitational and Subatomic Physics (GRASP), Utrecht University, CC Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Adam Mertel
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
| | - Guohuan Su
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
- Dept. of Ecological Modelling, UFZ – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany
- Dept. of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States of America
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Tucker MA, Schipper AM, Adams TSF, Attias N, Avgar T, Babic NL, Barker KJ, Bastille-Rousseau G, Behr DM, Belant JL, Beyer DE, Blaum N, Blount JD, Bockmühl D, Pires Boulhosa RL, Brown MB, Buuveibaatar B, Cagnacci F, Calabrese JM, Černe R, Chamaillé-Jammes S, Chan AN, Chase MJ, Chaval Y, Chenaux-Ibrahim Y, Cherry SG, Ćirović D, Çoban E, Cole EK, Conlee L, Courtemanch A, Cozzi G, Davidson SC, DeBloois D, Dejid N, DeNicola V, Desbiez ALJ, Douglas-Hamilton I, Drake D, Egan M, Eikelboom JAJ, Fagan WF, Farmer MJ, Fennessy J, Finnegan SP, Fleming CH, Fournier B, Fowler NL, Gantchoff MG, Garnier A, Gehr B, Geremia C, Goheen JR, Hauptfleisch ML, Hebblewhite M, Heim M, Hertel AG, Heurich M, Hewison AJM, Hodson J, Hoffman N, Hopcraft JGC, Huber D, Isaac EJ, Janik K, Ježek M, Johansson Ö, Jordan NR, Kaczensky P, Kamaru DN, Kauffman MJ, Kautz TM, Kays R, Kelly AP, Kindberg J, Krofel M, Kusak J, Lamb CT, LaSharr TN, Leimgruber P, Leitner H, Lierz M, Linnell JDC, Lkhagvaja P, Long RA, López-Bao JV, Loretto MC, Marchand P, Martin H, Martinez LA, McBride RT, McLaren AAD, Meisingset E, Melzheimer J, Merrill EH, Middleton AD, Monteith KL, Moore SA, Van Moorter B, Morellet N, Morrison T, Müller R, Mysterud A, Noonan MJ, O'Connor D, Olson D, Olson KA, Ortega AC, Ossi F, Panzacchi M, Patchett R, Patterson BR, de Paula RC, Payne J, Peters W, Petroelje TR, Pitcher BJ, Pokorny B, Poole K, Potočnik H, Poulin MP, Pringle RM, Prins HHT, Ranc N, Reljić S, Robb B, Röder R, Rolandsen CM, Rutz C, Salemgareyev AR, Samelius G, Sayine-Crawford H, Schooler S, Şekercioğlu ÇH, Selva N, Semenzato P, Sergiel A, Sharma K, Shawler AL, Signer J, Silovský V, Silva JP, Simon R, Smiley RA, Smith DW, Solberg EJ, Ellis-Soto D, Spiegel O, Stabach J, Stacy-Dawes J, Stahler DR, Stephenson J, Stewart C, Strand O, Sunde P, Svoboda NJ, Swart J, Thompson JJ, Toal KL, Uiseb K, VanAcker MC, Velilla M, Verzuh TL, Wachter B, Wagler BL, Whittington J, Wikelski M, Wilmers CC, Wittemyer G, Young JK, Zięba F, Zwijacz-Kozica T, Huijbregts MAJ, Mueller T. Behavioral responses of terrestrial mammals to COVID-19 lockdowns. Science 2023; 380:1059-1064. [PMID: 37289888 DOI: 10.1126/science.abo6499] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2022] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 lockdowns in early 2020 reduced human mobility, providing an opportunity to disentangle its effects on animals from those of landscape modifications. Using GPS data, we compared movements and road avoidance of 2300 terrestrial mammals (43 species) during the lockdowns to the same period in 2019. Individual responses were variable with no change in average movements or road avoidance behavior, likely due to variable lockdown conditions. However, under strict lockdowns 10-day 95th percentile displacements increased by 73%, suggesting increased landscape permeability. Animals' 1-hour 95th percentile displacements declined by 12% and animals were 36% closer to roads in areas of high human footprint, indicating reduced avoidance during lockdowns. Overall, lockdowns rapidly altered some spatial behaviors, highlighting variable but substantial impacts of human mobility on wildlife worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marlee A Tucker
- Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, P.O. Box 9010, 6500, GL Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Aafke M Schipper
- Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, P.O. Box 9010, 6500, GL Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | | | - Nina Attias
- Instituto de Conservação de Animais Silvestres (ICAS), Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Tal Avgar
- Department of Wildland Resources and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322 USA
| | - Natarsha L Babic
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia
| | - Kristin J Barker
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
| | | | - Dominik M Behr
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH - 8057 Zürich
- Botswana Predator Conservation, Private Bag 13, Maun, Botswana
| | - Jerrold L Belant
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 480 Wilson Road, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
| | - Dean E Beyer
- Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 480 Wilson Road, East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
| | - Niels Blaum
- University of Potsdam, Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Am Mühlenberg 3, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
| | - J David Blount
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, 257 S 1400 E, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
| | - Dirk Bockmühl
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred-Kowalke-Str. 17, 10315 Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Michael B Brown
- Giraffe Conservation Foundation, Eros, PO Box 86099, Windhoek, Namibia
- Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, Conservation Ecology Center, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA
| | | | - Francesca Cagnacci
- Animal Ecology Unit, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Via E. Mach 1, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Italy
| | - Justin M Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Goerlitz, Germany
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, 4094 Campus Dr, College Park, MA, USA
| | - Rok Černe
- Slovenia Forest service, Večna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Simon Chamaillé-Jammes
- CEFE, CNRS, Univ Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
- Mammal Research Institute, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Aung Nyein Chan
- Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, Conservation Ecology Center, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA
- Dept. Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80525, USA
| | | | - Yannick Chaval
- Université de Toulouse, INRAE, CEFS, F-31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France
- LTSER ZA PYRénées GARonne, F-31320 Auzeville-Tolosane, France
| | - Yvette Chenaux-Ibrahim
- Department of Biology and Environment, Grand Portage Band of Lake Superior Chippewa, Grand Portage, MN 55605 USA
| | - Seth G Cherry
- Parks Canada Agency, Box 220, Radium Hot Springs, BC, V0A 1M0, Canada
| | - Duško Ćirović
- Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade, Studentski trg 16, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Emrah Çoban
- KuzeyDoğa Society, Ortakapı Mah. Şehit Yusuf Cad. 69, 36100 Kars, Turkey
| | - Eric K Cole
- U.S. Fish and Wildlfe Service, National Elk Refuge, PO Box 510, Jackson, WY 83001
| | - Laura Conlee
- Missouri Department of Conservation, Columbia, MO, 65201, USA
| | | | - Gabriele Cozzi
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH - 8057 Zürich
- Botswana Predator Conservation, Private Bag 13, Maun, Botswana
| | - Sarah C Davidson
- Department of Migration, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, 78315 Radolfzell, Germany
- Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, 78464 Konstanz, Germany
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, The Ohio State University, 43210 Columbus, OH, USA
| | | | - Nandintsetseg Dejid
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | | | - Arnaud L J Desbiez
- Instituto de Conservação de Animais Silvestres (ICAS), Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
- Royal Zoological Society of Scotland (RZSS), Murrayfield, Edinburgh, UK
- Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas (IPÊ), Nazaré Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Iain Douglas-Hamilton
- Save the Elephants, Marula Manor, Marula Lane, Karen, Nairobi 00200, Kenya
- Department of Zoology, Oxford University, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
| | - David Drake
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706 USA
| | - Michael Egan
- Cooperative Wildlife Research Laboratory, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL, 62901
- LTSER ZA PYRénées GARonne, F-31320 Auzeville-Tolosane, France
| | - Jasper A J Eikelboom
- Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Group, Wageningen University and Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3a, 6708 PB, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - William F Fagan
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, 4094 Campus Dr, College Park, MA, USA
| | - Morgan J Farmer
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706 USA
| | - Julian Fennessy
- Giraffe Conservation Foundation, Eros, PO Box 86099, Windhoek, Namibia
| | - Shannon P Finnegan
- Global Wildlife Conservation Center, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
| | - Christen H Fleming
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, 4094 Campus Dr, College Park, MA, USA
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, VA, USA
| | - Bonnie Fournier
- Wildlife and Fish Division, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Government of the Northwest Territories, P.O. Box 1320, Yellowknife, NT, Canada
| | - Nicholas L Fowler
- Global Wildlife Conservation Center, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
- Alaska Department of Fish and Game, 43961 Kalifornsky Beach Road, Suite B, Soldotna, AK 99669, USA
| | - Mariela G Gantchoff
- State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
- Department of Biology, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Dayton, Dayton, OH 45469 USA
| | - Alexandre Garnier
- Université de Toulouse, INRAE, CEFS, F-31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France
- Parc National des Pyrénées, 65000 Tarbes, France
| | - Benedikt Gehr
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Chris Geremia
- Yellowstone Center for Resources, PO Box 168, Yellowstone National Park, WY 82190
| | - Jacob R Goheen
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 USA
| | - Morgan L Hauptfleisch
- Biodiversity Research Centre, Namibia University of Science and Technnology Pvt bag 13388 Windhoek, Namibia
| | - Mark Hebblewhite
- Wildlife Biology Program, Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59801
| | - Morten Heim
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Terrestrial Ecology Department, P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, 7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Anne G Hertel
- Behavioural Ecology, Department of Biology, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Großhaderner Str. 2, 82152 Planegg-Martinsried, Germany
| | - Marco Heurich
- Department of Visitor Management and National Park Monitoring, Bavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Straße 2, 94481 Grafenau, Germany
- Chair of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation Biology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacher Straße 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany
- Institute for forest and wildlife management, Faculty of Applied Ecology, Agricultural Sciences and Biotechnology, Campus Evenstad, Inland Norway University of Applied Science, NO-2480 Koppang, Norway
| | - A J Mark Hewison
- Université de Toulouse, INRAE, CEFS, F-31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France
- LTSER ZA PYRénées GARonne, F-31320 Auzeville-Tolosane, France
| | - James Hodson
- Wildlife and Fish Division, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Government of the Northwest Territories, P.O. Box 1320, Yellowknife, NT Canada X1A 2L9
| | - Nicholas Hoffman
- Ecological Program, Pennsylvania Department of Military and Veterans Affairs, Fort Indiantown Gap National Guard Training Center, Annville, PA 17003, USA
| | - J Grant C Hopcraft
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow UK G12 8QQ
| | - Djuro Huber
- Veterinary Biology Department, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zagreb, Heinzelova 55, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Edmund J Isaac
- Department of Biology and Environment, Grand Portage Band of Lake Superior Chippewa, Grand Portage, MN 55605 USA
| | - Karolina Janik
- City of New York Parks and Recreation, Wildlife Unit, 1234 5th Avenue, 5th Floor, NY 10029
| | - Miloš Ježek
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Örjan Johansson
- Grimsö Wildlife Research Station, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 739 93, Riddarhyttan, Sweden
- Snow Leopard Trust, 4649 Sunnyside Avenue North, Seattle, WA 98103, USA
| | - Neil R Jordan
- Botswana Predator Conservation, Private Bag 13, Maun, Botswana
- Centre for Ecosystem Science, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
- Taronga Institute of Science and Learning, Taronga Conservation Society, Sydney, NSW, 2088, Australia
| | - Petra Kaczensky
- Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, Norway
- University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, Austria
| | - Douglas N Kamaru
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 USA
- Wildlife Department, Ol Pejeta Conservancy, Private Bag-10400, Nanyuki, Kenya
| | - Matthew J Kauffman
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
| | - Todd M Kautz
- Global Wildlife Conservation Center, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
| | - Roland Kays
- North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences, Raleigh, NC, 27601, USA
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA
| | - Allicia P Kelly
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Government of the Northwest Territories, P.O. Box 2668, Yellowknife, NT Canada X1A 2P9
| | - Jonas Kindberg
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, NO-7484 Trondheim, Norway
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE- 901 83 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Miha Krofel
- Department of Forestry, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Jamnikarjeva 101, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred- Kowalke- Str. 17, 10315 Berlin, Germany
| | - Josip Kusak
- Veterinary Biology Department, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zagreb, Heinzelova 55, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Clayton T Lamb
- Biological Sciences Centre, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2E9 Canada
| | - Tayler N LaSharr
- Haub School of Environment and Natural Resources, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 804 East Fremont, Laramie, WY 82072
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, Conservation Ecology Center, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA
| | - Horst Leitner
- Büro für Wildökologie und Forstwirtschaft, Klagenfurth, Austria
| | - Michael Lierz
- Clinic for birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Germany
| | - John D C Linnell
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Terrestrial Ecology Department, P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, 7485 Trondheim, Norway
- Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, Anne Evenstads vei 80, 2480 Koppang, Norway
| | | | - Ryan A Long
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844 USA
| | - José Vicente López-Bao
- Biodiversity Research Institute (CSIC - Oviedo University - Principality of Asturias), Oviedo University, E-33600 Mieres, Spain
| | - Matthias-Claudio Loretto
- Department of Migration, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, 78315 Radolfzell, Germany
- Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences, Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, 85354 Freising, Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park, 83471 Berchtesgaden, Germany
| | - Pascal Marchand
- Office Français de la Biodiversité, Direction de la Recherche et de l'Expertise, Unité Ongulés Sauvages, Juvignac, France
| | - Hans Martin
- Wildlife Biology Program, Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59801
| | - Lindsay A Martinez
- Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
| | - Roy T McBride
- Faro Moro Eco Research, Estancia Faro Moro, Departmento de Boquerón, Paraguay
| | - Ashley A D McLaren
- Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Wildlife Research and Monitoring Section, Trent University, 2140 East Bank Drive, Peterborough, Ontario, K9J 7B8, Canada
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Government of the Northwest Territories, Highway 5, PO Box 900, Fort Smith, Northwest Territories, X0E 0P0, Canada
| | - Erling Meisingset
- Department of Forestry and Forestry resources, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research, Tingvoll gard, NO-6630 Tingvoll, Norway
| | - Joerg Melzheimer
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred-Kowalke-Str. 17, 10315 Berlin, Germany
| | - Evelyn H Merrill
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2E9, Canada
| | - Arthur D Middleton
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
| | - Kevin L Monteith
- Haub School of Environment and Natural Resources, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 804 East Fremont, Laramie, WY 82072
| | - Seth A Moore
- Department of Biology and Environment, Grand Portage Band of Lake Superior Chippewa, Grand Portage, MN 55605 USA
| | - Bram Van Moorter
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Terrestrial Ecology Department, P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, 7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Nicolas Morellet
- Université de Toulouse, INRAE, CEFS, F-31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France
- LTSER ZA PYRénées GARonne, F-31320 Auzeville-Tolosane, France
| | - Thomas Morrison
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow UK G12 8QQ
| | - Rebekka Müller
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred-Kowalke-Str. 17, 10315 Berlin, Germany
| | - Atle Mysterud
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway
| | - Michael J Noonan
- Department of Biology, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada
| | - David O'Connor
- Save Giraffe Now, 8333 Douglas Avenue, Suite 300, Dallas, Texas 75225
- The Faculty of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, Max-von-Laue-Str. 9, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- National Geographic Partners, 1145 17th Street NW, Washington DC 20036, USA
| | | | - Kirk A Olson
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Mongolia Program. Post 20A, Box 21, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia
| | - Anna C Ortega
- Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
- Program in Ecology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 USA
| | - Federico Ossi
- Animal Ecology Unit, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Via E. Mach 1, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Italy
| | - Manuela Panzacchi
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Terrestrial Ecology Department, P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, 7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Robert Patchett
- Centre for Biological Diversity, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, Sir Harold Mitchell Building, St Andrews, KY16 9TH, UK
| | - Brent R Patterson
- Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, Trent University, 2140 East Bank Drive, Peterborough, Ontario K9J 7B8, Canada
- Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Wildlife Research and Monitoring Section, Trent University, 2140 East Bank Drive, Peterborough, Ontario K9J 7B8, Canada
| | - Rogerio Cunha de Paula
- Centro Nacional de Pesquisa e Conservação de Mamíferos Carnívoros, Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade, Atibaia, SP, 12952011 Brazil
| | - John Payne
- Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria
| | - Wibke Peters
- Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Wildlife Management, Bavarian State Institute for Forestry, Hans-Carl-von Carlowitz Platz 1, 85354 Freising
| | - Tyler R Petroelje
- Global Wildlife Conservation Center, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
| | - Benjamin J Pitcher
- Taronga Institute of Science and Learning, Taronga Conservation Society, Sydney, NSW, 2088, Australia
- School of Natural Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, NSW, 2109, Australia
| | - Boštjan Pokorny
- Faculty of Environmental Protection, Trg mladosti 7, 3320 Velenje, Slovenia
- Slovenian Forestry Institute, Večna pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
- Department of Biodiversity, Faculty of Mathematics, Natural Sciences and Information Technologies, University of Primorska, Glagoljaška 8, 6000 Koper, Slovenia
| | - Kim Poole
- Aurora Wildlife Research, 1918 Shannon Point Rd., Nelson, BC, V1L 6K1 Canada
| | - Hubert Potočnik
- Department of Biology, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Jamnikarjeva 101, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Marie-Pier Poulin
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, 82071 USA
| | - Robert M Pringle
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
| | - Herbert H T Prins
- Department of Animal Sciences, Wageningen University and Research, De Elst 1, 6708 WD, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Nathan Ranc
- Animal Ecology Unit, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Via E. Mach 1, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Italy
- Université de Toulouse, INRAE, CEFS, F-31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge MA 02138, USA
| | - Slaven Reljić
- Veterinary Biology Department, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zagreb, Heinzelova 55, HR-10000 Zagreb, Croatia
- Oikon Ltd, Institute of Applied Ecology, Trg Senjskih uskoka 1-2, HR-10020 Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Benjamin Robb
- Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
| | - Ralf Röder
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred-Kowalke-Str. 17, 10315 Berlin, Germany
| | - Christer M Rolandsen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Terrestrial Ecology Department, P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, 7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Christian Rutz
- Centre for Biological Diversity, School of Biology, University of St Andrews, Sir Harold Mitchell Building, St Andrews, KY16 9TH, UK
| | - Albert R Salemgareyev
- Association for the Conservation of Biodiversity of Kazakhstan (ACBK), Nur-Sultan, 010000, Kazakhstan
| | - Gustaf Samelius
- Snow Leopard Trust, 4649 Sunnyside Avenue North, Seattle, WA 98103, USA
- Nordens Ark, 456 93 Hunnebostrand, Sweden
| | - Heather Sayine-Crawford
- Wildlife and Fish Division, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Government of the Northwest Territories, P.O. Box 1320, Yellowknife, NT Canada X1A 2L9
| | - Sarah Schooler
- Global Wildlife Conservation Center, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA
| | - Çağan H Şekercioğlu
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, 257 S 1400 E, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA
- KuzeyDoğa Society, Ortakapı Mah. Şehit Yusuf Cad. 69, 36100 Kars, Turkey
- Koç University Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics, Faculty of Sciences, Rumelifeneri, Istanbul, Sarıyer, Turkey
| | - Nuria Selva
- Institute of Nature Conservation Polish Academy of Sciences, Adama Mickiewicza 33, 31-120 Kraków, Poland
- Departamento de Ciencias Integradas, Facultad de Ciencias Experimentales, Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Física, Matemáticas y Computación, Universidad de Huelva, 21071 Huelva, Spain
| | - Paola Semenzato
- Animal Ecology Unit, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, Via E. Mach 1, 38010 San Michele all'Adige, Italy
- Dimension Research, Ecology and Environment (D.R.E.Am. Italia), Via Garibaldi, 3, 52015 Pratovecchio Stia (AR), Italy
| | - Agnieszka Sergiel
- Institute of Nature Conservation Polish Academy of Sciences, Adama Mickiewicza 33, 31-120 Kraków, Poland
| | - Koustubh Sharma
- Snow Leopard Trust, Seattle, WA 98103, USA
- Global Snow Leopard and Ecosystem Protection Program, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
- Snow Leopard Foundation, Kyrgyzstan Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
- Nature Conservation Foundation, Mysore 570002, India
| | - Avery L Shawler
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
| | - Johannes Signer
- Wildlife Sciences, Faculty of Forest Sciences and Forest Ecology, University of Goettingen, Göttingen Germany
| | - Václav Silovský
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Czech Republic
| | - João Paulo Silva
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal
- BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal
| | - Richard Simon
- City of New York Parks and Recreation, Wildlife Unit, 1234 5th Avenue, 5th Floor, NY, NY, 10029
| | - Rachel A Smiley
- Haub School of Environment and Natural Resources, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 804 East Fremont, Laramie, WY 82072
| | - Douglas W Smith
- Yellowstone Center for Resources, PO Box 168, Yellowstone National Park, WY 82190
| | - Erling J Solberg
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Terrestrial Ecology Department, P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, 7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Diego Ellis-Soto
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT
- Max Planck - Yale Center for Biodiversity Movement and Global Change, Yale University
| | - Orr Spiegel
- School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel
| | - Jared Stabach
- Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, Conservation Ecology Center, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA
| | - Jenna Stacy-Dawes
- San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance, 15600 San Pasqual Valley Road, Escondido, CA, 92027 USA
| | - Daniel R Stahler
- Yellowstone Center for Resources, PO Box 168, Yellowstone National Park, WY 82190
| | - John Stephenson
- Grand Teton National Park, PO Drawer 170, Moose, Wyoming 83012 USA
| | - Cheyenne Stewart
- Wyoming Game and Fish Department, 700 Valley View Dr. Sheridan, WY 82801
| | - Olav Strand
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Terrestrial Ecology Department, P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, 7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Peter Sunde
- Aarhus University, Department of Ecoscience - Wildlife Ecology, C.F. Møllers Allé 4-8, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
| | | | - Jonathan Swart
- Welgevonden Game Reserve, P.O. Box 433, Vaalwater, South Africa
| | - Jeffrey J Thompson
- Guyra Paraguay - CONACYT, Asunción, Paraguay
- Instituto Saite, Asunción, Paraguay
| | - Katrina L Toal
- City of New York Parks and Recreation, Wildlife Unit, 1234 5th Avenue, 5th Floor, NY, NY, 10029
| | - Kenneth Uiseb
- Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism, Windhoek, Namibia
| | - Meredith C VanAcker
- Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, Conservation Ecology Center, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA
- Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, NY, NY 10027
| | - Marianela Velilla
- Guyra Paraguay - CONACYT, Asunción, Paraguay
- Instituto Saite, Asunción, Paraguay
- School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona, 1064 E Lowell St, Tucson, AZ 85719, USA
| | - Tana L Verzuh
- Haub School of Environment and Natural Resources, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 804 East Fremont, Laramie, WY 82072
| | - Bettina Wachter
- Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Alfred-Kowalke-Str. 17, 10315 Berlin, Germany
| | - Brittany L Wagler
- Haub School of Environment and Natural Resources, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 804 East Fremont, Laramie, WY 82072
| | - Jesse Whittington
- Park Canada, Banff National Park Resource Conservation. PO Box 900, Banff, Alberta, Canada. T1L 1K2
| | - Martin Wikelski
- Department of Migration, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, 78315 Radolfzell, Germany
- Centre for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour, University of Konstanz, 78457 Konstanz, Germany
| | - Christopher C Wilmers
- Center for Integrated Spatial Research, Environmental Studies Department, University of California, Santa Cruz CA, 95064 USA
| | - George Wittemyer
- Save the Elephants, Marula Manor, Marula Lane, Karen, Nairobi 00200, Kenya
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523
| | - Julie K Young
- USDA National Wildlife Research Center, Predator Research Facility, Millville, UT 84326 USA
- Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University, Logan, UT 84322 USA
| | - Filip Zięba
- Tatra National Park, Kuźnice 1, 34-500, Zakopane, Poland
| | | | - Mark A J Huijbregts
- Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, P.O. Box 9010, 6500, GL Nijmegen, the Netherlands
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Smithsonian National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, Conservation Ecology Center, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, Max-von-Laue-Strasse 9, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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Demers J, Fagan WF, Potluri S, Calabrese JM. The relationship between controllability, optimal testing resource allocation, and incubation-latent period mismatch as revealed by COVID-19. Infect Dis Model 2023; 8:514-538. [PMID: 37250860 PMCID: PMC10186984 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.04.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2023] [Revised: 04/21/2023] [Accepted: 04/25/2023] [Indexed: 05/31/2023] Open
Abstract
The severe shortfall in testing supplies during the initial COVID-19 outbreak and ensuing struggle to manage the pandemic have affirmed the critical importance of optimal supply-constrained resource allocation strategies for controlling novel disease epidemics. To address the challenge of constrained resource optimization for managing diseases with complications like pre- and asymptomatic transmission, we develop an integro partial differential equation compartmental disease model which incorporates realistic latent, incubation, and infectious period distributions along with limited testing supplies for identifying and quarantining infected individuals. Our model overcomes the limitations of typical ordinary differential equation compartmental models by decoupling symptom status from model compartments to allow a more realistic representation of symptom onset and presymptomatic transmission. To analyze the influence of these realistic features on disease controllability, we find optimal strategies for reducing total infection sizes that allocate limited testing resources between 'clinical' testing, which targets symptomatic individuals, and 'non-clinical' testing, which targets non-symptomatic individuals. We apply our model not only to the original, delta, and omicron COVID-19 variants, but also to generically parameterized disease systems with varying mismatches between latent and incubation period distributions, which permit varying degrees of presymptomatic transmission or symptom onset before infectiousness. We find that factors that decrease controllability generally call for reduced levels of non-clinical testing in optimal strategies, while the relationship between incubation-latent mismatch, controllability, and optimal strategies is complicated. In particular, though greater degrees of presymptomatic transmission reduce disease controllability, they may increase or decrease the role of non-clinical testing in optimal strategies depending on other disease factors like transmissibility and latent period length. Importantly, our model allows a spectrum of diseases to be compared within a consistent framework such that lessons learned from COVID-19 can be transferred to resource constrained scenarios in future emerging epidemics and analyzed for optimality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeffery Demers
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rosendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
- Dept. of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - William F Fagan
- Dept. of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Sriya Potluri
- Dept. of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Justin M Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rosendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
- Dept. of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
- Dept. of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
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6
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Su G, Mertel A, Brosse S, Calabrese JM. Species invasiveness and community invasibility of North American freshwater fish fauna revealed via trait-based analysis. Nat Commun 2023; 14:2332. [PMID: 37087448 PMCID: PMC10122662 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38107-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2022] [Accepted: 04/14/2023] [Indexed: 04/24/2023] Open
Abstract
While biological invasions are recognized as a major threat to global biodiversity, determining non-native species' abilities to establish in new areas (species invasiveness) and the vulnerability of those areas to invasions (community invasibility) is challenging. Here, we use trait-based analysis to profile invasive species and quantify the community invasibility for >1,800 North American freshwater fish communities. We show that, in addition to effects attributed to propagule pressure caused by human intervention, species with higher fecundity, longer lifespan and larger size tend to be more invasive. Community invasibility peaks when the functional distance among native species was high, leaving unoccupied functional space for the establishment of potential invaders. Our findings illustrate how the functional traits of non-native species determining their invasiveness, and the functional characteristics of the invaded community determining its invasibility, may be identified. Considering those two determinants together will enable better predictions of invasions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guohuan Su
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany.
- Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430072, China.
| | - Adam Mertel
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
| | - Sébastien Brosse
- Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB), Université de Toulouse, CNRS, IRD, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Justin M Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
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7
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Mertel A, Vyskočil J, Schüler L, Schlechte-Wełnicz W, Calabrese JM. Fine-scale variation in the effect of national border on COVID-19 spread: A case study of the Saxon-Czech border region. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2023; 44:100560. [PMID: 36707193 PMCID: PMC9741554 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2022.100560] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2022] [Revised: 09/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/07/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
The global extent and temporally asynchronous pattern of COVID-19 spread have repeatedly highlighted the role of international borders in the fight against the pandemic. Additionally, the deluge of high resolution, spatially referenced epidemiological data generated by the pandemic provides new opportunities to study disease transmission at heretofore inaccessible scales. Existing studies of cross-border infection fluxes, for both COVID-19 and other diseases, have largely focused on characterizing overall border effects. Here, we couple fine-scale incidence data with localized regression models to quantify spatial variation in the inhibitory effect of an international border. We take as a case study the border region between the German state of Saxony and the neighboring regions in northwestern Czechia, where municipality-level COVID-19 incidence data are available on both sides of the border. Consistent with past studies, we find an overall inhibitory effect of the border, but with a clear asymmetry, where the inhibitory effect is stronger from Saxony to Czechia than vice versa. Furthermore, we identify marked spatial variation along the border in the degree to which disease spread was inhibited. In particular, the area around Löbau in Saxony appears to have been a hotspot for cross-border disease transmission. The ability to identify infection flux hotspots along international borders may help to tailor monitoring programs and response measures to more effectively limit disease spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam Mertel
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), D-02826 Görlitz, Germany; Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), D-01328 Dresden, Germany.
| | - Jiří Vyskočil
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), D-02826 Görlitz, Germany; Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), D-01328 Dresden, Germany
| | - Lennart Schüler
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), D-02826 Görlitz, Germany; Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), D-01328 Dresden, Germany; Department of Computational Hydrosystems, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), D-04318 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Weronika Schlechte-Wełnicz
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), D-02826 Görlitz, Germany; Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), D-01328 Dresden, Germany
| | - Justin M Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), D-02826 Görlitz, Germany; Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), D-01328 Dresden, Germany; Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), D-04318 Leipzig, Germany; Department of Biology, University of Maryland, 20742-4415 College Park, MD, USA
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8
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Davoodi M, Senapati A, Mertel A, Schlechte-Welnicz W, M Calabrese J. On the optimal presence strategies for workplace during pandemics: A COVID-19 inspired probabilistic model. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0285601. [PMID: 37172012 PMCID: PMC10180602 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0285601] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2023] [Accepted: 04/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/14/2023] Open
Abstract
During pandemics like COVID-19, both the quality and quantity of services offered by businesses and organizations have been severely impacted. They often have applied a hybrid home office setup to overcome this problem, although in some situations, working from home lowers employee productivity. So, increasing the rate of presence in the office is frequently desired from the manager's standpoint. On the other hand, as the virus spreads through interpersonal contact, the risk of infection increases when workplace occupancy rises. Motivated by this trade-off, in this paper, we model this problem as a bi-objective optimization problem and propose a practical approach to find the trade-off solutions. We present a new probabilistic framework to compute the expected number of infected employees for a setting of the influential parameters, such as the incidence level in the neighborhood of the company, transmission rate of the virus, number of employees, rate of vaccination, testing frequency, and rate of contacts among the employees. The results show a wide range of trade-offs between the expected number of infections and productivity, for example, from 1 to 6 weekly infections in 100 employees and a productivity level of 65% to 85%. This depends on the configuration of influential parameters and the occupancy level. We implement the model and the algorithm and perform several experiments with different settings of the parameters. Moreover, we developed an online application based on the result in this paper which can be used as a recommender for the optimal rate of occupancy in companies/workplaces.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mansoor Davoodi
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
| | - Abhishek Senapati
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
| | - Adam Mertel
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
| | - Weronika Schlechte-Welnicz
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
| | - Justin M Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), Görlitz, Germany
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States of America
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9
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Alston JM, Fleming CH, Kays R, Streicher JP, Downs CT, Ramesh T, Reineking B, Calabrese JM. Mitigating pseudoreplication and bias in resource selection functions with autocorrelation‐informed weighting. Methods Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.14025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jesse M. Alston
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding Görlitz Germany
- Helmholtz‐Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) Dresden Germany
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment University of Arizona Tucson Arizona USA
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park Maryland USA
| | - Roland Kays
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina USA
- North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences Raleigh North Carolina USA
| | - Jarryd P. Streicher
- Centre for Functional Biodiversity, School of Life Sciences University of KwaZulu‐Natal Pietermaritzburg South Africa
| | - Colleen T. Downs
- Centre for Functional Biodiversity, School of Life Sciences University of KwaZulu‐Natal Pietermaritzburg South Africa
| | - Tharmalingam Ramesh
- Centre for Functional Biodiversity, School of Life Sciences University of KwaZulu‐Natal Pietermaritzburg South Africa
- Sálim Ali Centre for Ornithology and Natural History (SACON) Coimbatore Tamil Nadu India
| | - Björn Reineking
- Université Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, LESSEM Saint‐Martin‐d'Hères France
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding Görlitz Germany
- Helmholtz‐Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) Dresden Germany
- Department of Ecological Modelling Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) Leipzig Germany
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10
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Medici EP, Mezzini S, Fleming CH, Calabrese JM, Noonan MJ. Movement ecology of vulnerable lowland tapirs between areas of varying human disturbance. Mov Ecol 2022; 10:14. [PMID: 35287742 PMCID: PMC8919628 DOI: 10.1186/s40462-022-00313-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2021] [Accepted: 03/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Animal movement is a key ecological process that is tightly coupled to local environmental conditions. While agriculture, urbanisation, and transportation infrastructure are critical to human socio-economic improvement, these have spurred substantial changes in animal movement across the globe with potential impacts on fitness and survival. Notably, however, human disturbance can have differential effects across species, and responses to human activities are thus largely taxa and context specific. As human disturbance is only expected to worsen over the next decade it is critical to better understand how species respond to human disturbance in order to develop effective, case-specific conservation strategies. METHODS Here, we use an extensive telemetry dataset collected over 22 years to fill a critical knowledge gap in the movement ecology of lowland tapirs (Tapirus terrestris) across areas of varying human disturbance within three biomes in southern Brazil: the Pantanal, Cerrado, and Atlantic Forest. RESULTS From these data we found that the mean home range size across all monitored tapirs was 8.31 km2 (95% CI 6.53-10.42), with no evidence that home range sizes differed between sexes nor age groups. Interestingly, although the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Pantanal vary substantially in habitat composition, levels of human disturbance, and tapir population densities, we found that lowland tapir movement behaviour and space use were consistent across all three biomes. Human disturbance also had no detectable effect on lowland tapir movement. Lowland tapirs living in the most altered habitats we monitored exhibited movement behaviour that was comparable to that of tapirs living in a near pristine environment. CONCLUSIONS Contrary to our expectations, although we observed individual variability in lowland tapir space use and movement, human impacts on the landscape also had no measurable effect on their movement. Lowland tapir movement behaviour thus appears to exhibit very little phenotypic plasticity in response to human disturbance. Crucially, the lack of any detectable response to anthropogenic disturbance suggests that human modified habitats risk being ecological traps for tapirs and this information should be factored into conservation actions and species management aimed towards protecting lowland tapir populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- E P Medici
- Lowland Tapir Conservation Initiative (LTCI), Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas (IPÊ), Rodovia Dom Pedro I, km 47, Nazaré Paulista, São Paulo, 12960-000, Brazil.
- IUCN SSC Tapir Specialist Group (TSG), Campo Grande, Brazil.
- Escola Superior de Conservação Ambiental E Sustentabilidade (ESCAS/IPÊ), Rodovia Dom Pedro I, km 47, Nazaré Paulista, São Paulo, 12960-000, Brazil.
| | - S Mezzini
- The Irving K. Barber Faculty of Science, The University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus, Kelowna, Canada
| | - C H Fleming
- University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, USA
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA, USA
| | - J M Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), Dresden, Germany
- Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Leipzig, Germany
| | - M J Noonan
- The Irving K. Barber Faculty of Science, The University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus, Kelowna, Canada
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11
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Calabrese JM, Demers J. How optimal allocation of limited testing capacity changes epidemic dynamics. J Theor Biol 2022; 538:111017. [PMID: 35085536 PMCID: PMC8785410 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2021] [Revised: 11/27/2021] [Accepted: 01/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/15/2022]
Abstract
Insufficient testing capacity has been a critical bottleneck in the worldwide fight against COVID-19. Optimizing the deployment of limited testing resources has therefore emerged as a keystone problem in pandemic response planning. Here, we use a modified SEIR model to optimize testing strategies under a constraint of limited testing capacity. We define pre-symptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic infected classes, and assume that positively tested individuals are immediately moved into quarantine. We further define two types of testing. Clinical testing focuses only on the symptomatic class. Non-clinical testing detects pre- and asymptomatic individuals from the general population, and a concentration parameter governs the degree to which such testing can be focused on high infection risk individuals. We then solve for the optimal mix of clinical and non-clinical testing as a function of both testing capacity and the concentration parameter. We find that purely clinical testing is optimal at very low testing capacities, supporting early guidance to ration tests for the sickest patients. Additionally, we find that a mix of clinical and non-clinical testing becomes optimal as testing capacity increases. At high but empirically observed testing capacities, a mix of clinical testing and non-clinical testing, even if extremely unfocused, becomes optimal. We further highlight the advantages of early implementation of testing programs, and of combining optimized testing with contact reduction interventions such as lockdowns, social distancing, and masking.
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12
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Silva I, Fleming CH, Noonan MJ, Alston J, Folta C, Fagan WF, Calabrese JM. Autocorrelation‐informed home range estimation: A review and practical guide. Methods Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13786] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Inês Silva
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS) Görlitz Germany
- Helmholtz‐Zentrum Dresden‐Rossendorf (HZDR) Dresden Germany
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD USA
- Smithsonian's National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal VA USA
| | - Michael J. Noonan
- Department of Biology University of British Columbia Okanagan Kelowna BC Canada
| | - Jesse Alston
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS) Görlitz Germany
- Helmholtz‐Zentrum Dresden‐Rossendorf (HZDR) Dresden Germany
| | - Cody Folta
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD USA
| | - William F. Fagan
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD USA
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS) Görlitz Germany
- Helmholtz‐Zentrum Dresden‐Rossendorf (HZDR) Dresden Germany
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD USA
- Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ Leipzig Germany
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13
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Schüler L, Calabrese JM, Attinger S. Data driven high resolution modeling and spatial analyses of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0254660. [PMID: 34407071 PMCID: PMC8372931 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread around the world with over 100 million infections to date, and currently many countries are fighting the second wave of infections. With neither sufficient vaccination capacity nor effective medication, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the measure of choice. However, NPIs place a great burden on society, the mental health of individuals, and economics. Therefore the cost/benefit ratio must be carefully balanced and a target-oriented small-scale implementation of these NPIs could help achieve this balance. To this end, we introduce a modified SEIRD-class compartment model and parametrize it locally for all 412 districts of Germany. The NPIs are modeled at district level by time varying contact rates. This high spatial resolution makes it possible to apply geostatistical methods to analyse the spatial patterns of the pandemic in Germany and to compare the results of different spatial resolutions. We find that the modified SEIRD model can successfully be fitted to the COVID-19 cases in German districts, states, and also nationwide. We propose the correlation length as a further measure, besides the weekly incidence rates, to describe the current situation of the epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lennart Schüler
- Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- Dept. of Computational Hydrosystems, UFZ—Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS), Görlitz, Germany
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), Dresden, Germany
- Dept. of Ecological Modelling, UFZ—Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Sabine Attinger
- Institute of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- Dept. of Computational Hydrosystems, UFZ—Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany
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14
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Noonan MJ, Martinez‐Garcia R, Davis GH, Crofoot MC, Kays R, Hirsch BT, Caillaud D, Payne E, Sih A, Sinn DL, Spiegel O, Fagan WF, Fleming CH, Calabrese JM. Estimating encounter location distributions from animal tracking data. Methods Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Michael J. Noonan
- Department of Biology, The Irving K. Barber Faculty of Science The University of British Columbia Kelowna BC Canada
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park Front Royal VA USA
| | - Ricardo Martinez‐Garcia
- ICTP South American Institute for Fundamental Research & Instituto de Fisica Teorica – UNESP Sao Paulo Brazil
| | - Grace H. Davis
- Department of Anthropology University of California Davis CA USA
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Panama City Panama
- Department for the Ecology of Animal Societies Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior Konstanz Germany
- Department of Biology University of Konstanz Konstanz Germany
- Centre for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour University of Konstanz Konstanz Germany
| | - Margaret C. Crofoot
- Department of Anthropology University of California Davis CA USA
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Panama City Panama
- Department for the Ecology of Animal Societies Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior Konstanz Germany
- Department of Biology University of Konstanz Konstanz Germany
- Centre for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour University of Konstanz Konstanz Germany
| | - Roland Kays
- North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences and North Carolina State University Raleigh NC USA
| | - Ben T. Hirsch
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Panama City Panama
- College of Science and Engineering James Cook University Townsville Qld Australia
| | - Damien Caillaud
- Department of Anthropology University of California Davis CA USA
| | - Eric Payne
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis Davis CA USA
| | - Andrew Sih
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis Davis CA USA
| | - David L. Sinn
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy University of California Davis Davis CA USA
| | - Orr Spiegel
- School of Zoology Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv Israel
| | - William F. Fagan
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD USA
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park Front Royal VA USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD USA
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park Front Royal VA USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD USA
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS) Görlitz Germany
- Helmholtz‐Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) Dresden Germany
- Department of Ecological Modelling Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) Leipzig Germany
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15
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Stratmann TSM, Dejid N, Calabrese JM, Fagan WF, Fleming CH, Olson KA, Mueller T. Resource selection of a nomadic ungulate in a dynamic landscape. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0246809. [PMID: 33577613 PMCID: PMC7880454 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2020] [Accepted: 01/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Nomadic movements are often a consequence of unpredictable resource dynamics. However, how nomadic ungulates select dynamic resources is still understudied. Here we examined resource selection of nomadic Mongolian gazelles (Procapra gutturosa) in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. We used daily GPS locations of 33 gazelles tracked up to 3.5 years. We examined selection for forage during the growing season using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In winter we examined selection for snow cover which mediates access to forage and drinking water. We studied selection at the population level using resource selection functions (RSFs) as well as on the individual level using step-selection functions (SSFs) at varying spatio-temporal scales from 1 to 10 days. Results from the population and the individual level analyses differed. At the population level we found selection for higher than average NDVI during the growing season. This may indicate selection for areas with more forage cover within the arid steppe landscape. In winter, gazelles selected for intermediate snow cover, which may indicate preference for areas which offer some snow for hydration but not so much as to hinder movement. At the individual level, in both seasons and across scales, we were not able to detect selection in the majority of individuals, but selection was similar to that seen in the RSFs for those individuals showing selection. Difficulty in finding selection with SSFs may indicate that Mongolian gazelles are using a random search strategy to find forage in a landscape with large, homogeneous areas of vegetation. The combination of random searches and landscape characteristics could therefore obscure results at the fine scale of SSFs. The significant results on the broader scale used for the population level RSF highlight that, although individuals show uncoordinated movement trajectories, they ultimately select for similar vegetation and snow cover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Theresa S. M. Stratmann
- Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- * E-mail:
| | - Nandintsetseg Dejid
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | | | - William F. Fagan
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Kirk A. Olson
- Mongolia Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
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16
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Calabrese JM, Fleming CH, Noonan MJ, Dong X. ctmmweb: A Graphical User Interface for Autocorrelation‐Informed Home Range Estimation. WILDLIFE SOC B 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/wsb.1154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Justin M. Calabrese
- Center for Advanced Systems Understanding (CASUS) Untermarkt 20 02826 Görlitz Germany
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute 1500 Remount Rd Front Royal VA 22630 USA
| | - Michael J. Noonan
- The Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences The University of British Columbia, Okanagan campus 1177 Research Road Kelowna BC V1V 1V7 Canada
| | - Xianghui Dong
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD 20742 USA
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17
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Noonan MJ, Fleming CH, Tucker MA, Kays R, Harrison A, Crofoot MC, Abrahms B, Alberts SC, Ali AH, Altmann J, Antunes PC, Attias N, Belant JL, Beyer DE, Bidner LR, Blaum N, Boone RB, Caillaud D, de Paula RC, de la Torre JA, Dekker J, DePerno CS, Farhadinia M, Fennessy J, Fichtel C, Fischer C, Ford A, Goheen JR, Havmøller RW, Hirsch BT, Hurtado C, Isbell LA, Janssen R, Jeltsch F, Kaczensky P, Kaneko Y, Kappeler P, Katna A, Kauffman M, Koch F, Kulkarni A, LaPoint S, Leimgruber P, Macdonald DW, Markham AC, McMahon L, Mertes K, Moorman CE, Morato RG, Moßbrucker AM, Mourão G, O'Connor D, Oliveira‐Santos LGR, Pastorini J, Patterson BD, Rachlow J, Ranglack DH, Reid N, Scantlebury DM, Scott DM, Selva N, Sergiel A, Songer M, Songsasen N, Stabach JA, Stacy‐Dawes J, Swingen MB, Thompson JJ, Ullmann W, Vanak AT, Thaker M, Wilson JW, Yamazaki K, Yarnell RW, Zieba F, Zwijacz‐Kozica T, Fagan WF, Mueller T, Calabrese JM. Effects of body size on estimation of mammalian area requirements. Conserv Biol 2020; 34:1017-1028. [PMID: 32362060 PMCID: PMC7496598 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13495] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2019] [Revised: 11/27/2019] [Accepted: 12/24/2019] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Accurately quantifying species' area requirements is a prerequisite for effective area-based conservation. This typically involves collecting tracking data on species of interest and then conducting home-range analyses. Problematically, autocorrelation in tracking data can result in space needs being severely underestimated. Based on the previous work, we hypothesized the magnitude of underestimation varies with body mass, a relationship that could have serious conservation implications. To evaluate this hypothesis for terrestrial mammals, we estimated home-range areas with global positioning system (GPS) locations from 757 individuals across 61 globally distributed mammalian species with body masses ranging from 0.4 to 4000 kg. We then applied block cross-validation to quantify bias in empirical home-range estimates. Area requirements of mammals <10 kg were underestimated by a mean approximately15%, and species weighing approximately100 kg were underestimated by approximately50% on average. Thus, we found area estimation was subject to autocorrelation-induced bias that was worse for large species. Combined with the fact that extinction risk increases as body mass increases, the allometric scaling of bias we observed suggests the most threatened species are also likely to be those with the least accurate home-range estimates. As a correction, we tested whether data thinning or autocorrelation-informed home-range estimation minimized the scaling effect of autocorrelation on area estimates. Data thinning required an approximately93% data loss to achieve statistical independence with 95% confidence and was, therefore, not a viable solution. In contrast, autocorrelation-informed home-range estimation resulted in consistently accurate estimates irrespective of mass. When relating body mass to home range size, we detected that correcting for autocorrelation resulted in a scaling exponent significantly >1, meaning the scaling of the relationship changed substantially at the upper end of the mass spectrum.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael J. Noonan
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park1500 Remount RoadFront RoyalVA22630U.S.A.
- Department of BiologyUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkMD20742U.S.A.
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park1500 Remount RoadFront RoyalVA22630U.S.A.
- Department of BiologyUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkMD20742U.S.A.
| | - Marlee A. Tucker
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research CentreSenckenberg Gesellschaft für NaturforschungSenckenberganlage 25Frankfurt (Main)60325Germany
- Department of Biological SciencesGoethe UniversityMax‐von‐Laue‐Straße 9Frankfurt (Main)60438Germany
- Department of Environmental ScienceInstitute for Wetland and Water ResearchRadboud UniversityP.O. Box 9010NijmegenGLNL‐6500The Netherlands
| | - Roland Kays
- North Carolina Museum of Natural SciencesBiodiversity LabRaleighNC27601U.S.A.
- Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Program, College of Natural Resources Campus Box 8001North Carolina State UniversityRaleighNC27695U.S.A.
| | - Autumn‐Lynn Harrison
- Migratory Bird CenterSmithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteWashingtonD.C.20013U.S.A.
| | - Margaret C. Crofoot
- Department of AnthropologyUniversity of California, DavisDavisCA95616U.S.A.
- Smithsonian Tropical Research InstituteBalboa Ancon0843‐03092Republic of Panama
| | - Briana Abrahms
- Environmental Research DivisionNOAA Southwest Fisheries Science CenterMontereyCA93940U.S.A.
| | - Susan C. Alberts
- Departments of Biology and Evolutionary AnthropologyDuke UniversityDurhamNC27708U.S.A.
| | | | - Jeanne Altmann
- Department of Ecology and EvolutionPrinceton University106A Guyot HallPrincetonNJ08544U.S.A.
| | - Pamela Castro Antunes
- Department of EcologyFederal University of Mato Grosso do SulCampo GrandeMS79070–900Brazil
| | - Nina Attias
- Programa de Pós‐Graduaçao em Biologia Animal, Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso do SulCidade UniversitáriaAv. Costa e SilvaCampo GrandeMato Grosso do Sul79070‐900Brazil
| | - Jerrold L. Belant
- Camp Fire Program in Wildlife Conservation, State University of New YorkCollege of Environmental Science and ForestrySyracuseNY13210U.S.A.
| | - Dean E. Beyer
- Michigan Department of Natural Resources1990 U.S. 41 SouthMarquetteMI49855U.S.A.
| | - Laura R. Bidner
- Department of AnthropologyUniversity of California, DavisDavisCA95616U.S.A.
- Mpala Research CentreNanyuki555–104000Kenya
| | - Niels Blaum
- University of Potsdam, Plant Ecology and Nature ConservationAm Mühlenberg 3Potsdam14476Germany
| | - Randall B. Boone
- Natural Resource Ecology LaboratoryColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCO80523U.S.A.
- Department of Ecosystem Science and SustainabilityColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCO80523U.S.A.
| | - Damien Caillaud
- Department of AnthropologyUniversity of California, DavisDavisCA95616U.S.A.
| | - Rogerio Cunha de Paula
- National Research Center for Carnivores ConservationChico Mendes Institute for the Conservation of BiodiversityEstrada Municipal Hisaichi Takebayashi 8600AtibaiaSP12952‐011Brazil
| | - J. Antonio de la Torre
- Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico and CONACyTCiudad UniversitariaMexicoD.F.04318Mexico
| | - Jasja Dekker
- Jasja Dekker DierecologieEnkhuizenstraat 26ArnhemWZ6843The Netherlands
| | - Christopher S. DePerno
- Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Program, College of Natural Resources Campus Box 8001North Carolina State UniversityRaleighNC27695U.S.A.
| | - Mohammad Farhadinia
- Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordTubney House, OxfordshireOxfordOX13 5QLU.K.
- Future4Leopards FoundationTehranIran
| | | | - Claudia Fichtel
- German Primate CenterBehavioral Ecology & Sociobiology UnitKellnerweg 4Göttingen37077Germany
| | - Christina Fischer
- Restoration Ecology, Department of Ecology and Ecosystem ManagementTechnische Universität MünchenEmil‐Ramann‐Straße 6Freising85354Germany
| | - Adam Ford
- The Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences, Unit 2: BiologyThe University of British ColumbiaOkanagan Campus, SCI 109, 1177 Research RoadKelownaBCV1V 1V7Canada
| | - Jacob R. Goheen
- Department of Zoology and PhysiologyUniversity of WyomingLaramieWY82071U.S.A.
| | | | - Ben T. Hirsch
- Zoology and Ecology, College of Science and EngineeringJames Cook UniversityTownsvilleQLD4811Australia
| | - Cindy Hurtado
- Museo de Historia NaturalUniversidad Nacional Mayor de San MarcosLima15072Peru
- Department of Forest Resources ManagementThe University of British ColumbiaVancouverBCV6T 1Z4Canada
| | - Lynne A. Isbell
- Department of AnthropologyUniversity of California, DavisDavisCA95616U.S.A.
- Mpala Research CentreNanyuki555–104000Kenya
| | - René Janssen
- Bionet NatuuronderzoekValderstraat 39Stein6171ELThe Netherlands
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- University of Potsdam, Plant Ecology and Nature ConservationAm Mühlenberg 3Potsdam14476Germany
| | - Petra Kaczensky
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research — NINASluppenTrondheimNO‐7485Norway
- Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary MedicineSavoyenstraße 1ViennaA‐1160Austria
| | - Yayoi Kaneko
- Tokyo University of Agriculture and TechnologyTokyo183–8509Japan
| | - Peter Kappeler
- German Primate CenterBehavioral Ecology & Sociobiology UnitKellnerweg 4Göttingen37077Germany
| | - Anjan Katna
- Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE)BangaloreKarnataka560064India
- Manipal Academy of Higher EducationManipalKarnataka576104India
| | - Matthew Kauffman
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and PhysiologyUniversity of WyomingLaramieWY82071U.S.A.
| | - Flavia Koch
- German Primate CenterBehavioral Ecology & Sociobiology UnitKellnerweg 4Göttingen37077Germany
| | - Abhijeet Kulkarni
- Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE)BangaloreKarnataka560064India
| | - Scott LaPoint
- Max Planck Institute for OrnithologyVogelwarte RadolfzellAm Obstberg 1RadolfzellD‐78315Germany
- Black Rock Forest65 Reservoir RoadCornwallNY12518U.S.A.
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park1500 Remount RoadFront RoyalVA22630U.S.A.
| | - David W. Macdonald
- Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of ZoologyUniversity of OxfordTubney House, OxfordshireOxfordOX13 5QLU.K.
| | | | - Laura McMahon
- Office of Applied ScienceDepartment of Natural ResourcesRhinelanderWI54501U.S.A.
| | - Katherine Mertes
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park1500 Remount RoadFront RoyalVA22630U.S.A.
| | - Christopher E. Moorman
- Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Program, College of Natural Resources Campus Box 8001North Carolina State UniversityRaleighNC27695U.S.A.
| | - Ronaldo G. Morato
- National Research Center for Carnivores ConservationChico Mendes Institute for the Conservation of BiodiversityEstrada Municipal Hisaichi Takebayashi 8600AtibaiaSP12952‐011Brazil
- Institute for the Conservation of Neotropical Carnivores – Pró‐CarnívorosAtibaiaSao Paulo12945‐010Brazil
| | | | - Guilherme Mourão
- Embrapa PantanalRua 21 de setembro 1880Corumb´aMS79320–900Brazil
| | - David O'Connor
- Department of Biological SciencesGoethe UniversityMax‐von‐Laue‐Straße 9Frankfurt (Main)60438Germany
- San Diego Zoo Institute of Conservation Research15600 San Pasqual Valley RoadEscondidoCA92027U.S.A.
- National Geographic Partners1145 17th Street NWWashingtonD.C.20036U.S.A.
| | | | - Jennifer Pastorini
- Centre for Conservation and Research26/7 C2 Road, KodigahawewaJulpallamaTissamaharama82600Sri Lanka
- Anthropologisches InstitutUniversität ZürichWinterthurerstrasse 190Zurich8057Switzerland
| | - Bruce D. Patterson
- Integrative Research CenterField Museum of Natural HistoryChicagoIL60605U.S.A.
| | - Janet Rachlow
- Department of Fish and Wildlife SciencesUniversity of Idaho875 Perimeter Drive MS 1136MoscowID83844‐1136U.S.A.
| | - Dustin H. Ranglack
- Department of BiologyUniversity of Nebraska at KearneyKearneyNE68849U.S.A.
| | - Neil Reid
- Institute for Global Food Security (IGFS), School of Biological SciencesQueen's University BelfastBelfastBT9 5DLU.K.
| | - David M. Scantlebury
- School of Biological SciencesQueen's University Belfast19 Chlorine GardensBelfastNorthern IrelandBT9 5DLU.K.
| | - Dawn M. Scott
- School of Life SciencesKeele UniversityKeeleStaffordshireST5 5BGU.K.
| | - Nuria Selva
- Institute of Nature ConservationPolish Academy of SciencesMickiewicza 33Krakow31–120Poland
| | - Agnieszka Sergiel
- Institute of Nature ConservationPolish Academy of SciencesMickiewicza 33Krakow31–120Poland
| | - Melissa Songer
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park1500 Remount RoadFront RoyalVA22630U.S.A.
| | - Nucharin Songsasen
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park1500 Remount RoadFront RoyalVA22630U.S.A.
| | - Jared A. Stabach
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park1500 Remount RoadFront RoyalVA22630U.S.A.
| | - Jenna Stacy‐Dawes
- San Diego Zoo Institute of Conservation Research15600 San Pasqual Valley RoadEscondidoCA92027U.S.A.
| | - Morgan B. Swingen
- Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Program, College of Natural Resources Campus Box 8001North Carolina State UniversityRaleighNC27695U.S.A.
- 1854 Treaty Authority4428 Haines RoadDuluthMN55811U.S.A.
| | - Jeffrey J. Thompson
- Asociación Guyra Paraguay – CONACYTParque Ecológico Asunción VerdeAsuncion1101Paraguay
- Instituto SaiteCoronel Felix Cabrera 166Asuncion1101Paraguay
| | - Wiebke Ullmann
- University of Potsdam, Plant Ecology and Nature ConservationAm Mühlenberg 3Potsdam14476Germany
| | - Abi Tamim Vanak
- Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE)BangaloreKarnataka560064India
- Wellcome Trust/DBT India AllianceHyderabad500034India
- School of Life SciencesUniversity of KwaZulu‐NatalWestvilleDurban4041South Africa
| | - Maria Thaker
- Centre for Ecological SciencesIndian Institute of ScienceBangalore560012India
| | - John W. Wilson
- Department of Zoology & EntomologyUniversity of PretoriaPretoria0002South Africa
| | - Koji Yamazaki
- Ibaraki Nature MuseumZoological Laboratory700 OsakiBando‐cityIbaraki306–0622Japan
- Forest Ecology LaboratoryDepartment of Forest ScienceTokyo University of Agriculture1‐1‐1 SakuragaokaSetagaya‐KuTokyo156–8502Japan
| | - Richard W. Yarnell
- School of Animal, Rural and Environmental SciencesNottingham Trent UniversityBrackenhurst CampusSouthwellNG25 0QFU.K.
| | - Filip Zieba
- Tatra National ParkKúznice 1Zakopane34–500Poland
| | | | - William F. Fagan
- Department of BiologyUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkMD20742U.S.A.
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research CentreSenckenberg Gesellschaft für NaturforschungSenckenberganlage 25Frankfurt (Main)60325Germany
- Department of Biological SciencesGoethe UniversityMax‐von‐Laue‐Straße 9Frankfurt (Main)60438Germany
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park1500 Remount RoadFront RoyalVA22630U.S.A.
- Department of BiologyUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkMD20742U.S.A.
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Noonan MJ, Fleming CH, Akre TS, Drescher-Lehman J, Gurarie E, Harrison AL, Kays R, Calabrese JM. Scale-insensitive estimation of speed and distance traveled from animal tracking data. Mov Ecol 2019; 7:35. [PMID: 31788314 PMCID: PMC6858693 DOI: 10.1186/s40462-019-0177-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2019] [Accepted: 10/01/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Speed and distance traveled provide quantifiable links between behavior and energetics, and are among the metrics most routinely estimated from animal tracking data. Researchers typically sum over the straight-line displacements (SLDs) between sampled locations to quantify distance traveled, while speed is estimated by dividing these displacements by time. Problematically, this approach is highly sensitive to the measurement scale, with biases subject to the sampling frequency, the tortuosity of the animal's movement, and the amount of measurement error. Compounding the issue of scale-sensitivity, SLD estimates do not come equipped with confidence intervals to quantify their uncertainty. METHODS To overcome the limitations of SLD estimation, we outline a continuous-time speed and distance (CTSD) estimation method. An inherent property of working in continuous-time is the ability to separate the underlying continuous-time movement process from the discrete-time sampling process, making these models less sensitive to the sampling schedule when estimating parameters. The first step of CTSD is to estimate the device's error parameters to calibrate the measurement error. Once the errors have been calibrated, model selection techniques are employed to identify the best fit continuous-time movement model for the data. A simulation-based approach is then employed to sample from the distribution of trajectories conditional on the data, from which the mean speed estimate and its confidence intervals can be extracted. RESULTS Using simulated data, we demonstrate how CTSD provides accurate, scale-insensitive estimates with reliable confidence intervals. When applied to empirical GPS data, we found that SLD estimates varied substantially with sampling frequency, whereas CTSD provided relatively consistent estimates, with often dramatic improvements over SLD. CONCLUSIONS The methods described in this study allow for the computationally efficient, scale-insensitive estimation of speed and distance traveled, without biases due to the sampling frequency, the tortuosity of the animal's movement, or the amount of measurement error. In addition to being robust to the sampling schedule, the point estimates come equipped with confidence intervals, permitting formal statistical inference. All the methods developed in this study are now freely available in the ctmmR package or the ctmmweb point-and-click web based graphical user interface.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael J. Noonan
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, 22630 USA
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, 20742 USA
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, 22630 USA
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, 20742 USA
| | - Thomas S. Akre
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, 22630 USA
| | - Jonathan Drescher-Lehman
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, 22630 USA
- Department of Biology, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, 22030 USA
| | - Eliezer Gurarie
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, 20742 USA
| | - Autumn-Lynn Harrison
- Migratory Bird Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Washington, DC, 20008 USA
| | - Roland Kays
- North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences, Biodiversity Lab, Raleigh, 27601 USA
- Department of Forestry & Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 4400 University Drive, Raleigh, 27695 USA
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, 22630 USA
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, 20742 USA
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Card LR, McShea WJ, Fleischer RC, Maldonado JE, Stewardson K, Campana MG, Jansen PA, Calabrese JM. Tick Burdens in a Small-Mammal Community in Virginia. Northeast Nat (Steuben) 2019. [DOI: 10.1656/045.026.0317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Leah R. Card
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA 22630
| | - William J. McShea
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA 22630
| | - Robert C. Fleischer
- Center for Conservation Genomics, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute at the National Zoological Park, 3001 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20008
| | - Jesús. E. Maldonado
- Center for Conservation Genomics, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute at the National Zoological Park, 3001 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20008
| | - Kristin Stewardson
- Center for Conservation Genomics, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute at the National Zoological Park, 3001 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20008
| | - Michael G. Campana
- Center for Conservation Genomics, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute at the National Zoological Park, 3001 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20008
| | - Patrick A. Jansen
- Center for Tropical Forest Science, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, Balboa, Ancón, Republic of Panamá
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA 22630
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20
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Affiliation(s)
- Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal VA USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD USA
| | - Michael J. Noonan
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal VA USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD USA
| | - Emilia Patricia Medici
- Lowland Tapir Conservation Initiative, Instituto de Pesquisas Ecologicas Campo Grande Mato Grosso do Sul Brazil
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute Front Royal VA USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD USA
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21
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Nandintsetseg D, Bracis C, Olson KA, Böhning‐Gaese K, Calabrese JM, Chimeddorj B, Fagan WF, Fleming CH, Heiner M, Kaczensky P, Leimgruber P, Munkhnast D, Stratmann T, Mueller T. Challenges in the conservation of wide‐ranging nomadic species. J Appl Ecol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Dejid Nandintsetseg
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research CentreSenckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biological SciencesGoethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt (Main) Germany
| | - Chloe Bracis
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research CentreSenckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biological SciencesGoethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Ifremer, Channel and North Sea Fisheries Research Unit Boulogne‐sur‐Mer France
| | - Kirk A. Olson
- Wildlife Conservation SocietyMongolia Country Program Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia
| | - Katrin Böhning‐Gaese
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research CentreSenckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biological SciencesGoethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt (Main) Germany
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia
- Department of BiologyUniversity of Maryland College Park Maryland
| | | | - William F. Fagan
- Department of BiologyUniversity of Maryland College Park Maryland
- SESYNCUniversity of Maryland Annapolis Maryland
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia
- Department of BiologyUniversity of Maryland College Park Maryland
| | | | - Petra Kaczensky
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research Trondheim Norway
- Research Institute of Wildlife EcologyUniversity of Veterinary Medicine Vienna Austria
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia
| | | | - Theresa Stratmann
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research CentreSenckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biological SciencesGoethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt (Main) Germany
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research CentreSenckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biological SciencesGoethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology InstituteNational Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia
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22
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Calabrese JM, Fleming CH, Fagan WF, Rimmler M, Kaczensky P, Bewick S, Leimgruber P, Mueller T. Disentangling social interactions and environmental drivers in multi-individual wildlife tracking data. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2019; 373:rstb.2017.0007. [PMID: 29581392 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2017] [Accepted: 10/31/2017] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
While many animal species exhibit strong conspecific interactions, movement analyses of wildlife tracking datasets still largely focus on single individuals. Multi-individual wildlife tracking studies provide new opportunities to explore how individuals move relative to one another, but such datasets are frequently too sparse for the detailed, acceleration-based analytical methods typically employed in collective motion studies. Here, we address the methodological gap between wildlife tracking data and collective motion by developing a general method for quantifying movement correlation from sparsely sampled data. Unlike most existing techniques for studying the non-independence of individual movements with wildlife tracking data, our approach is derived from an analytically tractable stochastic model of correlated movement. Our approach partitions correlation into a deterministic tendency to move in the same direction termed 'drift correlation' and a stochastic component called 'diffusive correlation'. These components suggest the mechanisms that coordinate movements, with drift correlation indicating external influences, and diffusive correlation pointing to social interactions. We use two case studies to highlight the ability of our approach both to quantify correlated movements in tracking data and to suggest the mechanisms that generate the correlation. First, we use an abrupt change in movement correlation to pinpoint the onset of spring migration in barren-ground caribou. Second, we show how spatial proximity mediates intermittently correlated movements among khulans in the Gobi desert. We conclude by discussing the linkages of our approach to the theory of collective motion.This article is part of the theme issue 'Collective movement ecology'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justin M Calabrese
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA, USA
| | - Christen H Fleming
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA, USA.,Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - William F Fagan
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Martin Rimmler
- Department of Biology, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
| | | | - Sharon Bewick
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA, USA
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt, Germany.,Department of Biological Sciences, University Frankfurt, Frankfurt, Germany
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23
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Noonan MJ, Tucker MA, Fleming CH, Akre TS, Alberts SC, Ali AH, Altmann J, Antunes PC, Belant JL, Beyer D, Blaum N, Böhning‐Gaese K, Cullen L, Paula RC, Dekker J, Drescher‐Lehman J, Farwig N, Fichtel C, Fischer C, Ford AT, Goheen JR, Janssen R, Jeltsch F, Kauffman M, Kappeler PM, Koch F, LaPoint S, Markham AC, Medici EP, Morato RG, Nathan R, Oliveira‐Santos LGR, Olson KA, Patterson BD, Paviolo A, Ramalho EE, Rösner S, Schabo DG, Selva N, Sergiel A, Xavier da Silva M, Spiegel O, Thompson P, Ullmann W, Zięba F, Zwijacz‐Kozica T, Fagan WF, Mueller T, Calabrese JM. A comprehensive analysis of autocorrelation and bias in home range estimation. ECOL MONOGR 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1344] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Michael J. Noonan
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park 1500 Remount Road Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20742 USA
| | - Marlee A. Tucker
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung Senckenberganlage 25 60325 Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences Goethe University Max‐von‐Laue‐Straße 9 60438 Frankfurt (Main) Germany
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park 1500 Remount Road Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20742 USA
| | - Thomas S. Akre
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park 1500 Remount Road Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
| | - Susan C. Alberts
- Departments of Biology and Evolutionary Anthropology Duke University Durham North Carolina 27708 USA
| | | | - Jeanne Altmann
- Department of Ecology and Evolution Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
| | - Pamela Castro Antunes
- Department of Ecology Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul Campo Grande MS 79070‐900 Brazil
| | - Jerrold L. Belant
- Camp Fire Program in Wildlife Conservation College of Environmental Science and Forestry State University of New York Syracuse New York 13210 USA
| | - Dean Beyer
- Conservation Ecology Faculty of Biology Philipps‐University Marburg Karl‐von‐Frisch Straße 8 Marburg D‐35043 Germany
| | - Niels Blaum
- Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation University of Potsdam Am Mühlenberg 3 14476 Potsdam Germany
| | - Katrin Böhning‐Gaese
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung Senckenberganlage 25 60325 Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences Goethe University Max‐von‐Laue‐Straße 9 60438 Frankfurt (Main) Germany
| | - Laury Cullen
- Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas Nazare Paulista Rod. Dom Pedro I, km 47 Caixa Postal 47 ‐ 12960‐000 Nazaré Paulista SP Brazil
| | - Rogerio Cunha Paula
- National Research Center for Carnivores Conservation Chico Mendes Institute for the Conservation of Biodiversity Estrada Municipal Hisaichi Takebayashi 8600 Atibaia SP 12952‐011 Brazil
| | - Jasja Dekker
- Jasja Dekker Dierecologie Enkhuizenstraat 26 6843 WZ Arnhem The Netherlands
| | - Jonathan Drescher‐Lehman
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park 1500 Remount Road Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
- Department of Biology George Mason University 4400 University Drive Fairfax Virginia 22030 USA
| | - Nina Farwig
- Michigan Department of Natural Resources 1990 U.S. 41 South Marquette Michigan 49855 USA
| | - Claudia Fichtel
- Behavioral Ecology & Sociobiology Unit German Primate Center Kellnerweg 4 37077 Göttingen Germany
| | - Christina Fischer
- Restoration Ecology Department of Ecology and Ecosystem Management Technische Universität München Emil‐Ramann‐Straße 6 85354 Freising Germany
| | - Adam T. Ford
- Department of Biology University of British Columbia 1177 Research Road Kelowna British Columbia V1V 1V7 Canada
| | - Jacob R. Goheen
- Department of Zoology and Physiology University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming 82071 USA
| | - René Janssen
- Bionet Natuuronderzoek Valderstraat 39 6171EL Stein The Netherlands
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation University of Potsdam Am Mühlenberg 3 14476 Potsdam Germany
| | - Matthew Kauffman
- U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit Department of Zoology and Physiology University of Wyoming Laramie Wyoming 82071 USA
| | - Peter M. Kappeler
- Behavioral Ecology & Sociobiology Unit German Primate Center Kellnerweg 4 37077 Göttingen Germany
| | - Flávia Koch
- Behavioral Ecology & Sociobiology Unit German Primate Center Kellnerweg 4 37077 Göttingen Germany
| | - Scott LaPoint
- Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Vogelwarte Radolfzell Am Obstberg 1 D‐78315 Radolfzell Germany
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades New York 10964 USA
| | - A. Catherine Markham
- Department of Anthropology Stony Brook University Stony Brook New York 11794 USA
| | - Emilia Patricia Medici
- Lowland Tapir Conservation Initiative (LTCI) Instituto de Pesquisas Ecologicas (IPE) & IUCN SSC Tapir Specialist Group (TSG) Rua Licuala 622, Damha 1, CEP: 79046‐150 Campo Grande Mato Grosso do Sul Brazil
| | - Ronaldo G. Morato
- National Research Center for Carnivores Conservation Chico Mendes Institute for the Conservation of Biodiversity Estrada Municipal Hisaichi Takebayashi 8600 Atibaia SP 12952‐011 Brazil
- Institute for the Conservation of Neotropical Carnivores – Pro‐Carnívoros Atibaia SP 12945‐010 Brazil
| | - Ran Nathan
- Movement Ecology Laboratory Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Edmond J. Safra Campus Jerusalem 91904 Israel
| | | | - Kirk A. Olson
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park 1500 Remount Road Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
- Wildlife Conservation Society Mongolia Program 201 San Business Center Amar Street 29, Small Ring Road, Sukhbaatar District Post 20A, Box‐21 Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
| | - Bruce D. Patterson
- Integrative Research Center Field Museum of Natural History Chicago Illinois 60605 USA
| | - Agustin Paviolo
- Instituto de Biología Subtropical Universidad Nacional de Misiones and CONICET Bertoni 85 3370 Puerto Iguazú Misiones Argentina
| | - Emiliano Esterci Ramalho
- Institute for the Conservation of Neotropical Carnivores – Pro‐Carnívoros Atibaia SP 12945‐010 Brazil
- Instituto de Desenvolvimento Sustentável Mamirauá Estrada do Bexiga, 2.584 Bairro Fonte Boa Caixa Postal 38 69.553‐225 Tefé Amazonas Brazil
| | - Sascha Rösner
- Michigan Department of Natural Resources 1990 U.S. 41 South Marquette Michigan 49855 USA
| | - Dana G. Schabo
- Michigan Department of Natural Resources 1990 U.S. 41 South Marquette Michigan 49855 USA
| | - Nuria Selva
- Institute of Nature Conservation Polish Academy of Sciences Mickiewicza 33 31‐120 Krakow Poland
| | - Agnieszka Sergiel
- Institute of Nature Conservation Polish Academy of Sciences Mickiewicza 33 31‐120 Krakow Poland
| | - Marina Xavier da Silva
- Projeto Carnívoros do Iguaçu Parque Nacional do Iguaçu BR‐469, Km 22.5, CEP 85851‐970 Foz do Iguaçu PR Brazil
| | - Orr Spiegel
- School of Zoology Faculty of Life Sciences Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv 69978 Israel
| | - Peter Thompson
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20742 USA
| | - Wiebke Ullmann
- Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation University of Potsdam Am Mühlenberg 3 14476 Potsdam Germany
| | - Filip Zięba
- Tatra National Park Kuźnice 1 34‐500 Zakopane Poland
| | | | - William F. Fagan
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20742 USA
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung Senckenberganlage 25 60325 Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences Goethe University Max‐von‐Laue‐Straße 9 60438 Frankfurt (Main) Germany
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park 1500 Remount Road Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20742 USA
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24
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Calabrese JM, Moss Clay A, Estes RD, Thompson KV, Monfort SL. Male rutting calls synchronize reproduction in Serengeti wildebeest. Sci Rep 2018; 8:10202. [PMID: 29976996 PMCID: PMC6033926 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-28307-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2018] [Accepted: 06/08/2018] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Tightly synchronized reproduction in vast wildebeest herds underpins the keystone role this iconic species plays in the Serengeti. However, despite decades of study, the proximate synchronizing mechanism remains unknown. Combining a season-long field experiment with simple stochastic process models, we show that females exposed to playback of male rutting vocalizations are over three times more synchronous in their expected time to mating than a control group isolated from all male stimuli. Additionally, predictions of both mating and calving synchrony based on the playback group were highly consistent with independent data on wildebeest mating and calving synchrony, while control-based predictions were inconsistent with the data. Taken together, our results provide the first experimental evidence that male rutting vocalizations alone could account for the highly synchronized reproduction observed in Serengeti wildebeest. Given anthropogenically driven losses in many areas, a mechanistic understanding of synchrony can highlight additional risks declining wildebeest populations may face.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justin M Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA.
| | - Allison Moss Clay
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA.
| | - Richard D Estes
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA
| | - Katerina V Thompson
- College of Computer, Mathematical, and Natural Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA
| | - Steven L Monfort
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA
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25
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Dormann CF, Calabrese JM, Guillera-Arroita G, Matechou E, Bahn V, Bartoń K, Beale CM, Ciuti S, Elith J, Gerstner K, Guelat J, Keil P, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Pollock LJ, Reineking B, Roberts DR, Schröder B, Thuiller W, Warton DI, Wintle BA, Wood SN, Wüest RO, Hartig F. Model averaging in ecology: a review of Bayesian, information-theoretic, and tactical approaches for predictive inference. ECOL MONOGR 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 129] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Carsten F. Dormann
- Biometry and Environmental System Analysis; University of Freiburg; Tennenbacher Str. 4 79106 Freiburg Germany
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Conservation Ecology Center; Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; 1500 Remount Road Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
| | - Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita
- School of BioSciences; University of Melbourne; Royal Parade, Parkville Melbourne Victoria 3052 Australia
| | - Eleni Matechou
- School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science; University of Kent; Parkwood Road Canterbury CT2 7FS UK
| | - Volker Bahn
- Department of Biological Sciences; Wright State University; 3640 Colonel Glenn Hwy. Dayton Ohio 45435 USA
| | - Kamil Bartoń
- Institute of Nature Conservation; Polish Academy of Sciences; al. A. Mickiewicza 33 31-120 Kraków Poland
| | - Colin M. Beale
- Department of Biology; University of York; Wentworth Way York YO10 5DD UK
| | - Simone Ciuti
- Biometry and Environmental System Analysis; University of Freiburg; Tennenbacher Str. 4 79106 Freiburg Germany
- Laboratory of Wildlife Ecology and Behaviour; School of Biology and Environmental Science; University College Dublin; Belfield D4 Dublin Ireland
| | - Jane Elith
- School of BioSciences; University of Melbourne; Royal Parade, Parkville Melbourne Victoria 3052 Australia
| | - Katharina Gerstner
- Computational Landscape Ecology; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ; Permoser Str. 15 04318 Leipzig Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig; Deutscher Platz 5E 04103 Leipzig Germany
| | - Jérôme Guelat
- Swiss Ornithological Institute; Seerose 1 6204 Sempach Switzerland
| | - Petr Keil
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig; Deutscher Platz 5E 04103 Leipzig Germany
| | - José J. Lahoz-Monfort
- School of BioSciences; University of Melbourne; Royal Parade, Parkville Melbourne Victoria 3052 Australia
| | - Laura J. Pollock
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes; CNRS; Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc; Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA); Grenoble 38000 France
| | - Björn Reineking
- University Grenoble Alpes; Irstea; UR LESSEM; F-38402 St-Martin-d'Hères Grenoble France
- Biogeographical Modelling; Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research BayCEER; University of Bayreuth; Dr. Hans-Frisch-Straße 1-3 95448 Bayreuth Germany
| | - David R. Roberts
- Biometry and Environmental System Analysis; University of Freiburg; Tennenbacher Str. 4 79106 Freiburg Germany
- Department of Geography; University of Calgary; 2500 University Dr. NW Calgary Alberta T2N 1N4 Canada
| | - Boris Schröder
- Landscape Ecology and Environmental Systems Analysis; Institute of Geoecology; Technische Universität Braunschweig; Langer Kamp 19c 38106 Braunschweig Germany
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB); Altensteinstr. 34 14195 Berlin Germany
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes; CNRS; Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc; Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA); Grenoble 38000 France
| | - David I. Warton
- School of Mathematics and Statistics; Evolution and Ecology Research Centre; University of New South Wales; Sydney New South Wales 2052 Australia
| | - Brendan A. Wintle
- School of BioSciences; University of Melbourne; Royal Parade, Parkville Melbourne Victoria 3052 Australia
| | - Simon N. Wood
- School of Mathematics; Bristol University; Tyndall Avenue Bristol BS8 1TW UK
| | - Rafael O. Wüest
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes; CNRS; Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc; Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA); Grenoble 38000 France
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL; Zürcherstrasse 111 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland
| | - Florian Hartig
- Biometry and Environmental System Analysis; University of Freiburg; Tennenbacher Str. 4 79106 Freiburg Germany
- Theoretical Ecology; University of Regensburg; Universitätsstr. 31 93053 Regensburg Germany
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26
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Affiliation(s)
- Kevin Winner
- College of Information and Computer Sciences University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst Massachusetts
| | - Michael J. Noonan
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park Maryland
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park Maryland
| | - Kirk A. Olson
- Wildlife Conservation Society Mongolia Program Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences Goethe University Frankfurt (Main) Germany
| | - Daniel Sheldon
- College of Information and Computer Sciences University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst Massachusetts
- Department of Computer Science Mount Holyoke College South Hadley Massachusetts
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park Maryland
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27
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Fleming CH, Sheldon D, Fagan WF, Leimgruber P, Mueller T, Nandintsetseg D, Noonan MJ, Olson KA, Setyawan E, Sianipar A, Calabrese JM. Correcting for missing and irregular data in home-range estimation. Ecol Appl 2018; 28:1003-1010. [PMID: 29450936 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2017] [Revised: 11/13/2017] [Accepted: 01/02/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Home-range estimation is an important application of animal tracking data that is frequently complicated by autocorrelation, sampling irregularity, and small effective sample sizes. We introduce a novel, optimal weighting method that accounts for temporal sampling bias in autocorrelated tracking data. This method corrects for irregular and missing data, such that oversampled times are downweighted and undersampled times are upweighted to minimize error in the home-range estimate. We also introduce computationally efficient algorithms that make this method feasible with large data sets. Generally speaking, there are three situations where weight optimization improves the accuracy of home-range estimates: with marine data, where the sampling schedule is highly irregular, with duty cycled data, where the sampling schedule changes during the observation period, and when a small number of home-range crossings are observed, making the beginning and end times more independent and informative than the intermediate times. Using both simulated data and empirical examples including reef manta ray, Mongolian gazelle, and African buffalo, optimal weighting is shown to reduce the error and increase the spatial resolution of home-range estimates. With a conveniently packaged and computationally efficient software implementation, this method broadens the array of data sets with which accurate space-use assessments can be made.
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Affiliation(s)
- C H Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, Virginia, 22630, USA
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, Maryland, 20742, USA
- Conservation International Indonesia, Marine Program, Jalan Pejaten Barat 16A, Kemang, Jakarta, DKI Jakarta, 12550, Indonesia
| | - D Sheldon
- College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, 01003-9264, USA
- Department of Computer Science, Mount Holyoke College, South Hadley, Massachusetts, 01075, USA
| | - W F Fagan
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, Maryland, 20742, USA
| | - P Leimgruber
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, Virginia, 22630, USA
| | - T Mueller
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt (Main), Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, Max-von-Laue-Straße 9, 60438, Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - D Nandintsetseg
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt (Main), Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, Max-von-Laue-Straße 9, 60438, Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - M J Noonan
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, Virginia, 22630, USA
| | - K A Olson
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, Virginia, 22630, USA
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Mongolia Program, 201 San Business Center, Amar Street 29, Small Ring Road, Sukhbaatar District, Post 20A, Box-21, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - E Setyawan
- Manta Trust-Indonesian Manta Project, Badung, Bali, 80361, Indonesia
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Launceston, Tasmania, 7250, Australia
| | - A Sianipar
- Conservation International Indonesia, Marine Program, Jalan Pejaten Barat 16A, Kemang, Jakarta, DKI Jakarta, 12550, Indonesia
| | - J M Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, Virginia, 22630, USA
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, Maryland, 20742, USA
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28
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Tucker MA, Böhning-Gaese K, Fagan WF, Fryxell JM, Van Moorter B, Alberts SC, Ali AH, Allen AM, Attias N, Avgar T, Bartlam-Brooks H, Bayarbaatar B, Belant JL, Bertassoni A, Beyer D, Bidner L, van Beest FM, Blake S, Blaum N, Bracis C, Brown D, de Bruyn PJN, Cagnacci F, Calabrese JM, Camilo-Alves C, Chamaillé-Jammes S, Chiaradia A, Davidson SC, Dennis T, DeStefano S, Diefenbach D, Douglas-Hamilton I, Fennessy J, Fichtel C, Fiedler W, Fischer C, Fischhoff I, Fleming CH, Ford AT, Fritz SA, Gehr B, Goheen JR, Gurarie E, Hebblewhite M, Heurich M, Hewison AJM, Hof C, Hurme E, Isbell LA, Janssen R, Jeltsch F, Kaczensky P, Kane A, Kappeler PM, Kauffman M, Kays R, Kimuyu D, Koch F, Kranstauber B, LaPoint S, Leimgruber P, Linnell JDC, López-López P, Markham AC, Mattisson J, Medici EP, Mellone U, Merrill E, de Miranda Mourão G, Morato RG, Morellet N, Morrison TA, Díaz-Muñoz SL, Mysterud A, Nandintsetseg D, Nathan R, Niamir A, Odden J, O'Hara RB, Oliveira-Santos LGR, Olson KA, Patterson BD, Cunha de Paula R, Pedrotti L, Reineking B, Rimmler M, Rogers TL, Rolandsen CM, Rosenberry CS, Rubenstein DI, Safi K, Saïd S, Sapir N, Sawyer H, Schmidt NM, Selva N, Sergiel A, Shiilegdamba E, Silva JP, Singh N, Solberg EJ, Spiegel O, Strand O, Sundaresan S, Ullmann W, Voigt U, Wall J, Wattles D, Wikelski M, Wilmers CC, Wilson JW, Wittemyer G, Zięba F, Zwijacz-Kozica T, Mueller T. Moving in the Anthropocene: Global reductions in terrestrial mammalian movements. Science 2018; 359:466-469. [PMID: 29371471 DOI: 10.1126/science.aam9712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 481] [Impact Index Per Article: 80.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2017] [Accepted: 12/11/2017] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marlee A Tucker
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, 60325 Frankfurt (Main), Germany. .,Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, 60438 Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - Katrin Böhning-Gaese
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, 60325 Frankfurt (Main), Germany.,Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, 60438 Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - William F Fagan
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.,SESYNC, University of Maryland, Annapolis, MD 21401, USA
| | - John M Fryxell
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada
| | - Bram Van Moorter
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, P.O. Box 5685 Torgard, NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Susan C Alberts
- Departments of Biology and Evolutionary Anthropology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
| | | | - Andrew M Allen
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå 90183, Sweden.,Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Department of Animal Ecology and Physiology, Radboud University, 6500GL Nijmegen, Netherlands
| | - Nina Attias
- Ecology and Conservation Graduate Program, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, MS, Brazil
| | - Tal Avgar
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Hattie Bartlam-Brooks
- Structure and Motion Laboratory, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, London NW1 0TU, UK
| | | | - Jerrold L Belant
- Carnivore Ecology Laboratory, Forest and Wildlife Research Center, Mississippi State University, Box 9690, Mississippi State, MS, USA
| | - Alessandra Bertassoni
- Animal Biology Postgraduate Program, São Paulo State University, São José do Rio Preto, SP 15054-000, Brazil
| | - Dean Beyer
- Michigan Department of Natural Resources, 1990 U.S. 41 South, Marquette, MI 49855, USA
| | - Laura Bidner
- Department of Anthropology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | | | - Stephen Blake
- Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Vogelwarte Radolfzell, D-78315 Radolfzell, Germany.,Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, NY 10460, USA
| | - Niels Blaum
- University of Potsdam, Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Chloe Bracis
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, 60325 Frankfurt (Main), Germany.,Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, 60438 Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - Danielle Brown
- Department of Biology, Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN 37132, USA
| | - P J Nico de Bruyn
- Mammal Research Institute, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, Hatfield 0028, Gauteng, South Africa
| | - Francesca Cagnacci
- Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, 38010 San Michele all'Adige (TN), Italy.,Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
| | - Justin M Calabrese
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.,Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, VA, USA
| | - Constança Camilo-Alves
- Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade de Évora, Pólo da Mitra, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal.,ICAAM-Institute of Mediterranean Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Évora, Évora, Portugal
| | - Simon Chamaillé-Jammes
- Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive UMR 5175, CNRS-Université de Montpellier-Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier-EPHE, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - Andre Chiaradia
- Phillip Island Nature Parks, Victoria, Australia.,School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Sarah C Davidson
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.,Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Vogelwarte Radolfzell, D-78315 Radolfzell, Germany
| | - Todd Dennis
- Department of Biology, Fiji National University, P.O. Box 5529, Natabua, Lautoka, Fiji Islands
| | - Stephen DeStefano
- U.S. Geological Survey, Massachusetts Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
| | - Duane Diefenbach
- U.S. Geological Survey, Pennsylvania Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
| | - Iain Douglas-Hamilton
- Save the Elephants, P.O. Box 54667, Nairobi 00200, Kenya.,Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
| | - Julian Fennessy
- Giraffe Conservation Foundation, P.O. Box 86099, Eros, Namibia
| | - Claudia Fichtel
- German Primate Center, Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology Unit, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
| | - Wolfgang Fiedler
- Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Vogelwarte Radolfzell, D-78315 Radolfzell, Germany
| | - Christina Fischer
- Restoration Ecology, Department of Ecology and Ecosystem Management, Technische Universität München, 85354 Freising, Germany
| | - Ilya Fischhoff
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545, USA
| | - Christen H Fleming
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.,Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, VA, USA
| | - Adam T Ford
- Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences, Unit 2: Biology, University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
| | - Susanne A Fritz
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, 60325 Frankfurt (Main), Germany.,Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, 60438 Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - Benedikt Gehr
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jacob R Goheen
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA
| | - Eliezer Gurarie
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.,School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
| | - Mark Hebblewhite
- Wildlife Biology Program, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA
| | - Marco Heurich
- Bavarian Forest National Park, Department of Conservation and Research, 94481 Grafenau, Germany.,Chair of Wildlife Ecology and Management, Albert Ludwigs University of Freiburg, 79106 Freiburg, Germany
| | | | - Christian Hof
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, 60325 Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - Edward Hurme
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Lynne A Isbell
- Department of Anthropology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.,Animal Behavior Graduate Group, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | - René Janssen
- Bionet Natuuronderzoek, 6171EL Stein, Netherlands
| | - Florian Jeltsch
- University of Potsdam, Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Petra Kaczensky
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, P.O. Box 5685 Torgard, NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway.,Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, A-1160 Vienna, Austria
| | - Adam Kane
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
| | - Peter M Kappeler
- German Primate Center, Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology Unit, 37077 Göttingen, Germany
| | - Matthew Kauffman
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA
| | - Roland Kays
- North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences, Raleigh, NC 27601, USA.,Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA
| | - Duncan Kimuyu
- Department of Natural Resource Management, Karatina University, P.O. Box 1957-10101, Karatina, Kenya
| | - Flavia Koch
- German Primate Center, Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology Unit, 37077 Göttingen, Germany.,Department of Psychology, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, Alberta T1K 3M4, Canada
| | - Bart Kranstauber
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Scott LaPoint
- Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Vogelwarte Radolfzell, D-78315 Radolfzell, Germany.,Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, VA, USA
| | - John D C Linnell
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, P.O. Box 5685 Torgard, NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Pascual López-López
- Cavanilles Institute of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, Terrestrial Vertebrates Group, University of Valencia, E-46980 Paterna, Valencia, Spain
| | - A Catherine Markham
- Department of Anthropology, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA
| | - Jenny Mattisson
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, P.O. Box 5685 Torgard, NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Emilia Patricia Medici
- International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Species Survival Commission (SSC) Tapir Specialist Group (TSG), Rua Licuala, 622, Damha 1, Campo Grande, CEP: 79046-150, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.,IPÊ (Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas; Institute for Ecological Research), Caixa Postal 47, Nazaré Paulista, CEP: 12960-000, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Ugo Mellone
- Vertebrates Zoology Research Group, Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales, University of Alicante, Alicante, Spain
| | - Evelyn Merrill
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | | | - Ronaldo G Morato
- National Research Center for Carnivores Conservation, Chico Mendes Institute for the Conservation of Biodiversity, Atibaia-SP 12952-011, Brazil
| | | | - Thomas A Morrison
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Samuel L Díaz-Muñoz
- Center for Genomics and Systems Biology, Department of Biology, New York University, New York, NY 10003, USA.,Department of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
| | - Atle Mysterud
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Blindern, NO-0316 Oslo, Norway
| | - Dejid Nandintsetseg
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, 60325 Frankfurt (Main), Germany.,Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, 60438 Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - Ran Nathan
- Movement Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, Alexander Silberman Institute of Life Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91904, Israel
| | - Aidin Niamir
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, 60325 Frankfurt (Main), Germany
| | - John Odden
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, NO-0349 Oslo, Norway
| | - Robert B O'Hara
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, 60325 Frankfurt (Main), Germany.,Department of Mathematical Sciences and Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), 7491 Trondheim, Norway
| | | | - Kirk A Olson
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Mongolia Program, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
| | - Bruce D Patterson
- Integrative Research Center, Field Museum of Natural History, Chicago, IL 60605, USA
| | - Rogerio Cunha de Paula
- National Research Center for Carnivores Conservation, Chico Mendes Institute for the Conservation of Biodiversity, Atibaia-SP 12952-011, Brazil
| | - Luca Pedrotti
- Consorzio Parco Nazionale dello Stelvio, Bormio (Sondrio), Italy
| | - Björn Reineking
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Irstea, UR LESSEM, BP 76, 38402 St-Martin-d'Hères, France.,University of Bayreuth, BayCEER, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany
| | | | - Tracey L Rogers
- Evolution and Ecology Research Centre and School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
| | - Christer Moe Rolandsen
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, P.O. Box 5685 Torgard, NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | | | - Daniel I Rubenstein
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
| | - Kamran Safi
- Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Vogelwarte Radolfzell, D-78315 Radolfzell, Germany.,Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, 78467 Konstanz, Germany
| | - Sonia Saïd
- Directorate of Studies and Expertise (DRE), Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune Sauvage, Montfort, 01330 Birieux, France
| | - Nir Sapir
- Department of Evolutionary and Environmental Biology, University of Haifa, 3498838 Haifa, Israel
| | - Hall Sawyer
- Western Ecosystems Technology Inc., Laramie, WY 82070, USA
| | - Niels Martin Schmidt
- Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark.,Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Nuria Selva
- Institute of Nature Conservation Polish Academy of Sciences, 31-120 Krakow, Poland
| | - Agnieszka Sergiel
- Institute of Nature Conservation Polish Academy of Sciences, 31-120 Krakow, Poland
| | | | - João Paulo Silva
- REN Biodiversity Chair, CIBIO/InBIO Associate Laboratory, Universidade do Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal.,Centre for Applied Ecology "Prof. Baeta Neves"/InBIO Associate Laboratory, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal.,Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Navinder Singh
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå 90183, Sweden
| | - Erling J Solberg
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, P.O. Box 5685 Torgard, NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | - Orr Spiegel
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Olav Strand
- Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, P.O. Box 5685 Torgard, NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway
| | | | - Wiebke Ullmann
- University of Potsdam, Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Ulrich Voigt
- Institute for Terrestrial and Aquatic Wildlife Research, University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover-Foundation, 30173 Hannover, Germany
| | - Jake Wall
- Save the Elephants, P.O. Box 54667, Nairobi 00200, Kenya
| | - David Wattles
- U.S. Geological Survey, Massachusetts Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
| | - Martin Wikelski
- Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Vogelwarte Radolfzell, D-78315 Radolfzell, Germany.,Department of Biology, University of Konstanz, 78467 Konstanz, Germany
| | - Christopher C Wilmers
- Center for Integrated Spatial Research, Environmental Studies Department, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA
| | - John W Wilson
- Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, Hatfield 0028, South Africa
| | - George Wittemyer
- Save the Elephants, P.O. Box 54667, Nairobi 00200, Kenya.,Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - Filip Zięba
- Tatra National Park, 34-500 Zakopane, Poland
| | | | - Thomas Mueller
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, 60325 Frankfurt (Main), Germany. .,Department of Biological Sciences, Goethe University, 60438 Frankfurt (Main), Germany.,Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, VA, USA
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Abstract
Emergence may involve invasive mosquitoes other than Asian tiger mosquitoes, climate change, and changes in wildlife densities. La Crosse encephalitis is a viral disease that has emerged in new locations across the Appalachian region of the United States. Conventional wisdom suggests that ongoing emergence of La Crosse virus (LACV) could stem from the invasive Asian tiger (Aedes albopictus) mosquito. Efforts to prove this, however, are complicated by the numerous transmission routes and species interactions involved in LACV dynamics. To analyze LACV transmission by Asian tiger mosquitoes, we constructed epidemiologic models. These models accurately predict empirical infection rates. They do not, however, support the hypothesis that Asian tiger mosquitoes are responsible for the recent emergence of LACV at new foci. Consequently, we conclude that other factors, including different invasive mosquitoes, changes in climate variables, or changes in wildlife densities, should be considered as alternative explanations for recent increases in La Crosse encephalitis.
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30
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31
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Gurarie E, Cagnacci F, Peters W, Fleming CH, Calabrese JM, Mueller T, Fagan WF. A framework for modelling range shifts and migrations: asking when, whither, whether and will it return. J Anim Ecol 2017; 86:943-959. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12674] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2016] [Accepted: 03/12/2017] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Eliezer Gurarie
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - Francesca Cagnacci
- Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology Department IASMA Research and Innovation Centre Fondazione Edmund Mach San Michele all’Adige Italy
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology Harvard University Cambridge MA USA
| | - Wibke Peters
- Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology Department IASMA Research and Innovation Centre Fondazione Edmund Mach San Michele all’Adige Italy
- Wildlife Biology Program College of Forestry and Conservation University of Montana Missoula MT USA
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD 20742 USA
- Conservation Ecology Center Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park Front Royal VA USA
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD 20742 USA
- Conservation Ecology Center Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park Front Royal VA USA
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung Frankfurt Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences Goethe University Frankfurt Frankfurt Germany
| | - William F. Fagan
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD 20742 USA
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Péron G, Fleming CH, de Paula RC, Mitchell N, Strohbach M, Leimgruber P, Calabrese JM. Periodic continuous-time movement models uncover behavioral changes of wild canids along anthropization gradients. ECOL MONOGR 2017. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Péron
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
- Univ Lyon; Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive UMR5558; CNRS; Université Lyon 1; F-69622 Villeurbanne France
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
- Department of Biology; University of Maryland; College Park Maryland 20742 USA
| | - Rogerio C. de Paula
- National Research Center for Carnivore Conservation (CENAP/ICMBio); Atibaia Sao Paulo Brazil
| | - Numi Mitchell
- The Conservation Agency; 67 Howland Avenue Jamestown Rhode Island 02835 USA
| | - Michael Strohbach
- Landscape Ecology and Environmental Systems Analysis; Institute of Geoecology; Technische Universität Braunschweig; Braunschweig Germany
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park Front Royal Virginia 22630 USA
- Univ Lyon; Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive UMR5558; CNRS; Université Lyon 1; F-69622 Villeurbanne France
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Péron G, Fleming CH, Duriez O, Fluhr J, Itty C, Lambertucci S, Safi K, Shepard ELC, Calabrese JM. The energy landscape predicts flight height and wind turbine collision hazard in three species of large soaring raptor. J Appl Ecol 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Péron
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park Front Royal VA 22630 USA
- Univ Lyon Université Lyon 1 CNRS Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive UMR5558 F‐69622 Villeurbanne France
| | - Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park Front Royal VA 22630 USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD 4415 USA
| | - Olivier Duriez
- Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive UMR 5175 CNRS‐Université de Montpellier – EPHE‐Université Paul Valery 1919 Route de Mende 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5 France
| | - Julie Fluhr
- Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive UMR 5175 CNRS‐Université de Montpellier – EPHE‐Université Paul Valery 1919 Route de Mende 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5 France
| | - Christian Itty
- ONCFS SD34 Les Portes du Soleil 147 route de Lodève 34 990 Juvignac France
| | - Sergio Lambertucci
- Grupo de Biología de la Conservación Laboratorio Ecotono INIBIOMA (CONICET–Universidad Nacional del Comahue) Quintral 1250 8400 Bariloche Argentina
| | - Kamran Safi
- Max Planck Institut für Ornithologie Am Obstberg 1 78315 Radolfzell Germany
| | - Emily L. C. Shepard
- Swansea Laboratory for Animal Movement Biosciences College of Science Swansea University Singleton Park Swansea SA2 8PP UK
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park Front Royal VA 22630 USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD 4415 USA
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Martínez-García R, Calabrese JM, López C. Online games: a novel approach to explore how partial information influences human random searches. Sci Rep 2017; 7:40029. [PMID: 28059115 PMCID: PMC5216393 DOI: 10.1038/srep40029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2016] [Accepted: 11/15/2016] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Many natural processes rely on optimizing the success ratio of a search process. We use an experimental setup consisting of a simple online game in which players have to find a target hidden on a board, to investigate how the rounds are influenced by the detection of cues. We focus on the search duration and the statistics of the trajectories traced on the board. The experimental data are explained by a family of random-walk-based models and probabilistic analytical approximations. If no initial information is given to the players, the search is optimized for cues that cover an intermediate spatial scale. In addition, initial information about the extension of the cues results, in general, in faster searches. Finally, strategies used by informed players turn into non-stationary processes in which the length of e ach displacement evolves to show a well-defined characteristic scale that is not found in non-informed searches.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ricardo Martínez-García
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, VA 22630, USA
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Cristóbal López
- IFISC, Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (CSIC-UIB), E-07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain
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Morato RG, Stabach JA, Fleming CH, Calabrese JM, De Paula RC, Ferraz KMPM, Kantek DLZ, Miyazaki SS, Pereira TDC, Araujo GR, Paviolo A, De Angelo C, Di Bitetti MS, Cruz P, Lima F, Cullen L, Sana DA, Ramalho EE, Carvalho MM, Soares FHS, Zimbres B, Silva MX, Moraes MDF, Vogliotti A, May JA, Haberfeld M, Rampim L, Sartorello L, Ribeiro MC, Leimgruber P. Space Use and Movement of a Neotropical Top Predator: The Endangered Jaguar. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0168176. [PMID: 28030568 PMCID: PMC5193337 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0168176] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2016] [Accepted: 11/25/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Accurately estimating home range and understanding movement behavior can provide important information on ecological processes. Advances in data collection and analysis have improved our ability to estimate home range and movement parameters, both of which have the potential to impact species conservation. Fitting continuous-time movement model to data and incorporating the autocorrelated kernel density estimator (AKDE), we investigated range residency of forty-four jaguars fit with GPS collars across five biomes in Brazil and Argentina. We assessed home range and movement parameters of range resident animals and compared AKDE estimates with kernel density estimates (KDE). We accounted for differential space use and movement among individuals, sex, region, and habitat quality. Thirty-three (80%) of collared jaguars were range resident. Home range estimates using AKDE were 1.02 to 4.80 times larger than KDE estimates that did not consider autocorrelation. Males exhibited larger home ranges, more directional movement paths, and a trend towards larger distances traveled per day. Jaguars with the largest home ranges occupied the Atlantic Forest, a biome with high levels of deforestation and high human population density. Our results fill a gap in the knowledge of the species' ecology with an aim towards better conservation of this endangered/critically endangered carnivore-the top predator in the Neotropics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ronaldo G. Morato
- Centro Nacional de Pesquisa e Conservação de Mamíferos Carnívoros, Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade, Atibaia, São Paulo, Brazil
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, Virginia, United States of America
- Instituto Pró-Carnívoros, Atibaia, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Jared A. Stabach
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Chris H. Fleming
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Rogério C. De Paula
- Centro Nacional de Pesquisa e Conservação de Mamíferos Carnívoros, Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade, Atibaia, São Paulo, Brazil
- Instituto Pró-Carnívoros, Atibaia, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Kátia M. P. M. Ferraz
- Instituto Pró-Carnívoros, Atibaia, São Paulo, Brazil
- Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”, Universidade de São Paulo, Piracicaba, Brazil
| | - Daniel L. Z. Kantek
- Estação Ecológica Taiamã, Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade, Cáceres, Mato Grosso, Brazil
| | - Selma S. Miyazaki
- Estação Ecológica Taiamã, Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade, Cáceres, Mato Grosso, Brazil
| | - Thadeu D. C. Pereira
- Estação Ecológica Taiamã, Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade, Cáceres, Mato Grosso, Brazil
| | - Gediendson R. Araujo
- Departamento de Medicina Veterinária, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Agustin Paviolo
- Instituto de Biología Subtropical, Universidad Nacional de Misiones and CONICET, Puerto Iguazú, Argentina
| | - Carlos De Angelo
- Instituto de Biología Subtropical, Universidad Nacional de Misiones and CONICET, Puerto Iguazú, Argentina
| | - Mario S. Di Bitetti
- Instituto de Biología Subtropical, Universidad Nacional de Misiones and CONICET, Puerto Iguazú, Argentina
| | - Paula Cruz
- Instituto de Biología Subtropical, Universidad Nacional de Misiones and CONICET, Puerto Iguazú, Argentina
| | - Fernando Lima
- IPÊ – Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas, Nazaré Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil
- Laboratório de Ecologia Espacial e Conservação, Instituto de Biociências, Univesidade Estadual de São Paulo, Rio Claro, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Laury Cullen
- IPÊ – Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas, Nazaré Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Denis A. Sana
- Instituto Pró-Carnívoros, Atibaia, São Paulo, Brazil
- Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Emiliano E. Ramalho
- Instituto Pró-Carnívoros, Atibaia, São Paulo, Brazil
- Instituto de Desenvolvimento Sustentável Mamirauá, Tefé, Amazonas, Brazil
| | - Marina M. Carvalho
- Instituto de Defesa e Preservação dos Felídeos Brasileiros, Corumbá de Goiás, Goiás, Brazil
| | - Fábio H. S. Soares
- Instituto de Defesa e Preservação dos Felídeos Brasileiros, Corumbá de Goiás, Goiás, Brazil
| | - Barbara Zimbres
- Programa de Pós Graduação em Zoologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade de Brasília, Federal District, Brazil
| | - Marina X. Silva
- Projeto Carnívoros do Iguaçu, Parque Nacional do Iguaçu, Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade, Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná, Brazil
| | - Marcela D. F. Moraes
- Projeto Carnívoros do Iguaçu, Parque Nacional do Iguaçu, Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade, Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná, Brazil
| | - Alexandre Vogliotti
- Instituto Pró-Carnívoros, Atibaia, São Paulo, Brazil
- Universidade Federal da Integração Latino-Americana, Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná, Brazil
| | - Joares A. May
- Projeto Onçafari Miranda, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
| | | | - Lilian Rampim
- Projeto Onçafari Miranda, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
| | | | - Milton C. Ribeiro
- Laboratório de Ecologia Espacial e Conservação, Instituto de Biociências, Univesidade Estadual de São Paulo, Rio Claro, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, Virginia, United States of America
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Affiliation(s)
- Christen H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park 1500 Remount Road Front Royal VA 22630 USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park 1500 Remount Road Front Royal VA 22630 USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park College Park MD 20742 USA
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Fleming CH, Fagan WF, Mueller T, Olson KA, Leimgruber P, Calabrese JM. Estimating where and how animals travel: an optimal framework for path reconstruction from autocorrelated tracking data. Ecology 2016; 97:576-82. [PMID: 27197385 DOI: 10.1890/15-1607] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
An animal's trajectory is a fundamental object of interest in movement ecology, as it directly informs a range of topics from resource selection to energy expenditure and behavioral states. Optimally inferring the mostly unobserved movement path and its dynamics from a limited sample of telemetry observations is a key unsolved problem, however. The field of geostatistics has focused significant attention on a mathematically analogous problem that has a statistically optimal solution coined after its inventor, Krige. Kriging revolutionized geostatistics and is now the gold standard for interpolating between a limited number of autocorrelated spatial point observations. Here we translate Kriging for use with animal movement data. Our Kriging formalism encompasses previous methods to estimate animal's trajectories--the Brownian bridge and continuous-time correlated random walk library--as special cases, informs users as to when these previous methods are appropriate, and provides a more general method when they are not. We demonstrate the capabilities of Kriging on a case study with Mongolian gazelles where, compared to the Brownian bridge, Kriging with a more optimal model was 10% more precise in interpolating locations and 500% more precise in estimating occurrence areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park 1500 Remount Rd. Front Royal VA 22630 USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - Chris H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute National Zoological Park 1500 Remount Rd. Front Royal VA 22630 USA
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - Eliezer Gurarie
- Department of Biology University of Maryland College Park MD 20742 USA
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Péron G, Fleming CH, de Paula RC, Calabrese JM. Uncovering periodic patterns of space use in animal tracking data with periodograms, including a new algorithm for the Lomb-Scargle periodogram and improved randomization tests. Mov Ecol 2016; 4:19. [PMID: 27482382 PMCID: PMC4968009 DOI: 10.1186/s40462-016-0084-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2016] [Accepted: 06/18/2016] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Periodicity in activity level (rest/activity cycles) is ubiquitous in nature, but whether and how these periodicities translate into periodic patterns of space use by animals is much less documented. Here we introduce an analytical protocol based on the Lomb-Scargle periodogram (LSP) to facilitate exploration of animal tracking datasets for periodic patterns. The LSP accommodates missing observations and variation in the sampling intervals of the location time series. RESULTS We describe a new, fast algorithm to compute the LSP. The gain in speed compared to other R implementations of the LSP makes it tractable to analyze long datasets (>10(6) records). We also give a detailed primer on periodicity analysis, focusing on the specificities of movement data. In particular, we warn against the risk of flawed inference when the sampling schedule creates artefactual periodicities and we introduce a new statistical test of periodicity that accommodates temporally autocorrelated background noise. Applying our LSP-based analytical protocol to tracking data from three species revealed that an ungulate exhibited periodicity in its movement speed but not in its locations, that a central place-foraging seabird tracked moon phase, and that the movements of a range-resident canid included a daily patrolling component that was initially masked by the stochasticity of the movements. CONCLUSION The new, fast algorithm tailored for movement data analysis and now available in the R-package ctmm makes the LSP a convenient exploratory tool to detect periodic patterns in animal movement data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Péron
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, VA 22630 USA
| | - Chris H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, VA 22630 USA
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 USA
| | - Rogerio C. de Paula
- National Research Center for Carnivore Conservation (CENAP/ICMBio), Atibaia, Sao Paulo Brazil
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, VA 22630 USA
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 USA
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Fleming CH, Fagan WF, Mueller T, Olson KA, Leimgruber P, Calabrese JM. Estimating where and how animals travel: An optimal framework for path reconstruction from autocorrelated tracking data. Ecology 2015. [DOI: 10.1890/15-1607.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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Fleming CH, Fagan WF, Mueller T, Olson KA, Leimgruber P, Calabrese JM. Rigorous home range estimation with movement data: a new autocorrelated kernel density estimator. Ecology 2015; 96:1182-8. [PMID: 26236833 DOI: 10.1890/14-2010.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 168] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Quantifying animals' home ranges is a key problem in ecology and has important conservation and wildlife management applications. Kernel density estimation (KDE) is a workhorse technique for range delineation problems that is both statistically efficient and nonparametric. KDE assumes that the data are independent and identically distributed (IID). However, animal tracking data, which are routinely used as inputs to KDEs, are inherently autocorrelated and violate this key assumption. As we demonstrate, using realistically autocorrelated data in conventional KDEs results in grossly underestimated home ranges. We further show that the performance of conventional KDEs actually degrades as data quality improves, because autocorrelation strength increases as movement paths become more finely resolved. To remedy these flaws with the traditional KDE method, we derive an autocorrelated KDE (AKDE) from first principles to use autocorrelated data, making it perfectly suited for movement data sets. We illustrate the vastly improved performance of AKDE using analytical arguments, relocation data from Mongolian gazelles, and simulations based upon the gazelle's observed movement process. By yielding better minimum area estimates for threatened wildlife populations, we believe that future widespread use of AKDE will have significant impact on ecology and conservation biology.
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Teitelbaum CS, Fagan WF, Fleming CH, Dressler G, Calabrese JM, Leimgruber P, Mueller T. How far to go? Determinants of migration distance in land mammals. Ecol Lett 2015; 18:545-52. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.12435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2015] [Revised: 03/01/2015] [Accepted: 03/16/2015] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Claire S. Teitelbaum
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung; Senckenberganlage 25 60325 Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences; Goethe University; Max-von-Laue-Straße 9 60438 Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biology; University of Maryland; College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - William F. Fagan
- Department of Biology; University of Maryland; College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - Chris H. Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park; Front Royal VA 22630 USA
| | - Gunnar Dressler
- Department of Biology; University of Maryland; College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park; Front Royal VA 22630 USA
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park; Front Royal VA 22630 USA
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre; Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung; Senckenberganlage 25 60325 Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biological Sciences; Goethe University; Max-von-Laue-Straße 9 60438 Frankfurt (Main) Germany
- Department of Biology; University of Maryland; College Park MD 20742 USA
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park; Front Royal VA 22630 USA
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Fleming CH, Subaşı Y, Calabrese JM. Maximum-entropy description of animal movement. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 2015; 91:032107. [PMID: 25871054 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.91.032107] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2014] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
We introduce a class of maximum-entropy states that naturally includes within it all of the major continuous-time stochastic processes that have been applied to animal movement, including Brownian motion, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, a recently discovered hybrid of the previous models, and a new model that describes central-place foraging. We are also able to predict a further hierarchy of new models that will emerge as data quality improves to better resolve the underlying continuity of animal movement. Finally, we also show that Langevin equations must obey a fluctuation-dissipation theorem to generate processes that fall from this class of maximum-entropy distributions when the constraints are purely kinematic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris H Fleming
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Rd., Front Royal, Virginia 22630, USA
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA
| | - Yiğit Subaşı
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA
| | - Justin M Calabrese
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Rd., Front Royal, Virginia 22630, USA
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Batsaikhan N, Buuveibaatar B, Chimed B, Enkhtuya O, Galbrakh D, Ganbaatar O, Lkhagvasuren B, Nandintsetseg D, Berger J, Calabrese JM, Edwards AE, Fagan WF, Fuller TK, Heiner M, Ito TY, Kaczensky P, Leimgruber P, Lushchekina A, Milner-Gulland EJ, Mueller T, Murray MG, Olson KA, Reading R, Schaller GB, Stubbe A, Stubbe M, Walzer C, Von Wehrden H, Whitten T. Conserving the world's finest grassland amidst ambitious national development. Conserv Biol 2014; 28:1736-9. [PMID: 24712745 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2013] [Accepted: 02/01/2014] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Nyamsuren Batsaikhan
- Department of Zoology, School of Biology and Biotechnology, National University of Mongolia, University Avenue-1, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
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Martínez-García R, Calabrese JM, Hernández-García E, López C. Minimal mechanisms for vegetation patterns in semiarid regions. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 2014; 372:rsta.2014.0068. [PMID: 25246686 PMCID: PMC4186217 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
The minimal ecological requirements for the fomation of regular vegetation patterns in semiarid systems have been recently questioned. Against the general belief that a combination of facilitative and competitive interactions is necessary, recent theoretical studies suggest that, under broad conditions, non-local competition among plants alone may induce patterns. In this paper, we review results along this line, presenting a series of models that yield spatial patterns when finite-range competition is the only driving force. A preliminary derivation of this type of model from a more detailed one that considers water-biomass dynamics is also presented.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ricardo Martínez-García
- IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos, Campus Universitat de les Illes Balears, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain
| | - Justin M Calabrese
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Road, Front Royal, VA 22630, USA
| | - Emilio Hernández-García
- IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos, Campus Universitat de les Illes Balears, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain
| | - Cristóbal López
- IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos, Campus Universitat de les Illes Balears, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain
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Fleming CH, Calabrese JM, Mueller T, Olson KA, Leimgruber P, Fagan WF. Non-Markovian maximum likelihood estimation of autocorrelated movement processes. Methods Ecol Evol 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12176] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Christen H. Fleming
- Conservation Ecology Center; Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park; 1500 Remount Road Front Royal VA 22630 USA
- Department of Biology; University of Maryland; College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - Justin M. Calabrese
- Conservation Ecology Center; Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park; 1500 Remount Road Front Royal VA 22630 USA
| | - Thomas Mueller
- Conservation Ecology Center; Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park; 1500 Remount Road Front Royal VA 22630 USA
- Department of Biology; University of Maryland; College Park MD 20742 USA
| | - Kirk A. Olson
- Conservation Ecology Center; Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park; 1500 Remount Road Front Royal VA 22630 USA
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- Conservation Ecology Center; Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute; National Zoological Park; 1500 Remount Road Front Royal VA 22630 USA
| | - William F. Fagan
- Department of Biology; University of Maryland; College Park MD 20742 USA
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Fleming CH, Calabrese JM, Mueller T, Olson KA, Leimgruber P, Fagan WF. From fine-scale foraging to home ranges: a semivariance approach to identifying movement modes across spatiotemporal scales. Am Nat 2014; 183:E154-67. [PMID: 24739204 DOI: 10.1086/675504] [Citation(s) in RCA: 118] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
Understanding animal movement is a key challenge in ecology and conservation biology. Relocation data often represent a complex mixture of different movement behaviors, and reliably decomposing this mix into its component parts is an unresolved problem in movement ecology. Traditional approaches, such as composite random walk models, require that the timescales characterizing the movement are all similar to the usually arbitrary data-sampling rate. Movement behaviors such as long-distance searching and fine-scale foraging, however, are often intermixed but operate on vastly different spatial and temporal scales. An approach that integrates the full sweep of movement behaviors across scales is currently lacking. Here we show how the semivariance function (SVF) of a stochastic movement process can both identify multiple movement modes and solve the sampling rate problem. We express a broad range of continuous-space, continuous-time stochastic movement models in terms of their SVFs, connect them to relocation data via variogram regression, and compare them using standard model selection techniques. We illustrate our approach using Mongolian gazelle relocation data and show that gazelle movement is characterized by ballistic foraging movements on a 6-h timescale, fast diffusive searching with a 10-week timescale, and asymptotic diffusion over longer timescales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chris H Fleming
- Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Front Royal, Virginia 22630
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Martínez-García R, Calabrese JM, López C. Optimal search in interacting populations: Gaussian jumps versus Lévy flights. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 2014; 89:032718. [PMID: 24730885 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.89.032718] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
We investigated the relationships between search efficiency, movement strategy, and nonlocal communication in the biological context of animal foraging. We considered situations where the members of a population of foragers perform either Gaussian jumps or Lévy flights, and show that the search time is minimized when communication among individuals occurs at intermediate ranges, independently of the type of movement. Additionally, while Brownian strategies are more strongly influenced by the communication mechanism, Lévy flights still result in shorter overall search durations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ricardo Martínez-García
- IFISC, Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (CSIC-UIB), E-07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain
| | - Justin M Calabrese
- Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Rd., Front Royal, Virginia 22630, USA
| | - Cristóbal López
- IFISC, Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos (CSIC-UIB), E-07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain
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Bacelar FS, Calabrese JM, Hernández-García E. Exploring the tug of war between positive and negative interactions among savanna trees: Competition, dispersal, and protection from fire. Ecological Complexity 2014. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2013.11.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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