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Cheng Y, Huang M, Lawrence DM, Calvin K, Lombardozzi DL, Sinha E, Pan M, He X. Future bioenergy expansion could alter carbon sequestration potential and exacerbate water stress in the United States. Sci Adv 2022; 8:eabm8237. [PMID: 35507646 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abm8237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The maximum future projected bioenergy expansion potential, in scenarios limiting warming to 2°C or below, is equivalent to half of present-day croplands. We quantify the impacts of large-scale bioenergy expansion against re/afforestation, which remain elusive, using an integrated human-natural system modeling framework with explicit representation of perennial bioenergy crops. The end-of-century net carbon sequestration due to bioenergy deployment coupled with carbon capture and storage largely depends on fossil fuel displacement types, ranging from 11.4 to 31.2 PgC over the conterminous United States. These net carbon sequestration benefits are inclusive of a 10 PgC carbon release due to land use conversions and a 2.4 PgC loss of additional carbon sink capacity associated with bioenergy-driven deforestation. Moreover, nearly one-fourth of U.S. land areas will suffer severe water stress by 2100 due to either reduced availability or deteriorated quality. These broader impacts of bioenergy expansion should be weighed against the costs and benefits of re/afforestation-based strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanyan Cheng
- Department of Industrial Systems Engineering and Management, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA, USA
| | - Maoyi Huang
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA, USA
| | - David M Lawrence
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Riverdale Park, MD, USA
| | - Danica L Lombardozzi
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Eva Sinha
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA, USA
| | - Ming Pan
- CW3E, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Xiaogang He
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
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2
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Jones CD, Hickman JE, Rumbold ST, Walton J, Lamboll RD, Skeie RB, Fiedler S, Forster PM, Rogelj J, Abe M, Botzet M, Calvin K, Cassou C, Cole JN, Davini P, Deushi M, Dix M, Fyfe JC, Gillett NP, Ilyina T, Kawamiya M, Kelley M, Kharin S, Koshiro T, Li H, Mackallah C, Müller WA, Nabat P, van Noije T, Nolan P, Ohgaito R, Olivié D, Oshima N, Parodi J, Reerink TJ, Ren L, Romanou A, Séférian R, Tang Y, Timmreck C, Tjiputra J, Tourigny E, Tsigaridis K, Wang H, Wu M, Wyser K, Yang S, Yang Y, Ziehn T. The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP. Geophys Res Lett 2021; 48:e2020GL091883. [PMID: 34149115 PMCID: PMC8206678 DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091883] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2020] [Revised: 01/24/2021] [Accepted: 02/15/2021] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.
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3
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Chen M, Vernon CR, Graham NT, Hejazi M, Huang M, Cheng Y, Calvin K. Global land use for 2015-2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios. Sci Data 2020; 7:320. [PMID: 33009403 PMCID: PMC7532189 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-00669-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Global future land use (LU) is an important input for Earth system models for projecting Earth system dynamics and is critical for many modeling studies on future global change. Here we generated a new global gridded LU dataset using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a land use spatial downscaling model, named Demeter, under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Compared to existing similar datasets, the presented dataset has a higher spatial resolution (0.05° × 0.05°) and spreads under a more comprehensive set of SSP-RCP scenarios (in total 15 scenarios), and considers uncertainties from the forcing climates. We compared our dataset with the Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) dataset and found our results are in general spatially consistent with LUH2. The presented dataset will be useful for global Earth system modeling studies, especially for the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover change and socioeconomics, as well as the characterizing the uncertainties associated with these impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Min Chen
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct., Suite 3500, College Park, MD, 20740, USA.
| | - Chris R Vernon
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA, 99352, USA
| | - Neal T Graham
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct., Suite 3500, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Mohamad Hejazi
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct., Suite 3500, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Maoyi Huang
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA, 99352, USA
- Office of Science and Technology Integration, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, USA
| | - Yanyan Cheng
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA, 99352, USA
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct., Suite 3500, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
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4
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McElwee P, Calvin K, Campbell D, Cherubini F, Grassi G, Korotkov V, Le Hoang A, Lwasa S, Nkem J, Nkonya E, Saigusa N, Soussana JF, Taboada MA, Manning F, Nampanzira D, Smith P. The impact of interventions in the global land and agri-food sectors on Nature's Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:4691-4721. [PMID: 32531815 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15219] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2019] [Revised: 02/14/2020] [Accepted: 03/14/2020] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and increase food security. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative co-benefits with and trade-offs against different social and environmental goals have been difficult without comparisons across a range of possible actions. This study examined 40 different options, implemented through land management, value chains, or risk management, for their relative impacts across 18 Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs) and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We find that a relatively small number of interventions show positive synergies with both SDGs and NCPs with no significant adverse trade-offs; these include improved cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, agroforestry, integrated water management, increased soil organic carbon content, reduced soil erosion, salinization, and compaction, fire management, reduced landslides and hazards, reduced pollution, reduced post-harvest losses, improved energy use in food systems, and disaster risk management. Several interventions show potentially significant negative impacts on both SDGs and NCPs; these include bioenergy and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, afforestation, and some risk sharing measures, like commercial crop insurance. Our results demonstrate that a better understanding of co-benefits and trade-offs of different policy approaches can help decision-makers choose the more effective, or at the very minimum, more benign interventions for implementation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pamela McElwee
- Department of Human Ecology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Donovan Campbell
- The University of the West Indies, Mona Campus, Kingston, Jamaica
| | - Francesco Cherubini
- Industrial Ecology Program, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
| | - Giacomo Grassi
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | - Vladimir Korotkov
- Yu. A. Izrael Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow, Russia
| | - Anh Le Hoang
- Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Shuaib Lwasa
- Department of Geography, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Johnson Nkem
- United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Ephraim Nkonya
- International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, USA
| | - Nobuko Saigusa
- Centre for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Jean-Francois Soussana
- French National Institute for Agricultural, Environment and Food Research (INRA), Paris Cedex 07, France
| | - Miguel Angel Taboada
- Natural Resources Research Centre (CIRN), Institute of Soils, National Agricultural Technology Institute (INTA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Frances Manning
- Institute of Biological & Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Dorothy Nampanzira
- Department of Livestock and Industrial Resources, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological & Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
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5
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Snyder A, Calvin K, Clarke L, Edmonds J, Kyle P, Narayan K, Di Vittorio A, Waldhoff S, Wise M, Patel P. The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0237918. [PMID: 32857784 PMCID: PMC7455037 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237918] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2020] [Accepted: 08/05/2020] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Agricultural crop yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural crop yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally through international commodity markets. Here we present a replication study of previous investigations (with different models) showing that potential direct domestic climate effects on crop yields in the U.S. have financial consequences for U.S. producers on the same order of magnitude but opposite in sign to indirect financial impacts on U.S. producers from climate effects on crop yields elsewhere in the world. We conclude that the analysis of country-specific financial climate impacts cannot ignore indirect effects arising through international markets. We find our results to be robust across a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts analyzed in the multi-sector dynamic global model GCAM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abigail Snyder
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States of America
| | - Leon Clarke
- Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States of America
| | - James Edmonds
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States of America
| | - Page Kyle
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States of America
| | - Kanishka Narayan
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States of America
| | - Alan Di Vittorio
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkley, CA, United States of America
| | - Stephanie Waldhoff
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States of America
| | - Marshall Wise
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States of America
| | - Pralit Patel
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States of America
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6
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Smith P, Calvin K, Nkem J, Campbell D, Cherubini F, Grassi G, Korotkov V, Le Hoang A, Lwasa S, McElwee P, Nkonya E, Saigusa N, Soussana J, Taboada MA, Manning FC, Nampanzira D, Arias‐Navarro C, Vizzarri M, House J, Roe S, Cowie A, Rounsevell M, Arneth A. Which practices co-deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification? Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:1532-1575. [PMID: 31637793 PMCID: PMC7079138 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14878] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2019] [Accepted: 10/13/2019] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as "land challenges"). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all four land challenges. A further two options have no global estimates for adaptation, but have medium to large benefits for all other land challenges. Five options have large mitigation potential (>3 Gt CO2 eq/year) without adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Five options have moderate mitigation potential, with no adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Sixteen practices have large adaptation potential (>25 million people benefit), without adverse side effects on other land challenges. Most practices can be applied without competing for available land. However, seven options could result in competition for land. A large number of practices do not require dedicated land, including several land management options, all value chain options, and all risk management options. Four options could greatly increase competition for land if applied at a large scale, though the impact is scale and context specific, highlighting the need for safeguards to ensure that expansion of land for mitigation does not impact natural systems and food security. A number of practices, such as increased food productivity, dietary change and reduced food loss and waste, can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing-up land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other practices, making them important components of portfolios of practices to address the combined land challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological & Environmental SciencesUniversity of AberdeenAberdeenUK
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryJoint Global Change Research InstituteCollege ParkMDUSA
| | - Johnson Nkem
- United Nations Economic Commission for AfricaAddis AbabaEthiopia
| | | | - Francesco Cherubini
- Industrial Ecology ProgrammeDepartment of Energy and Process EngineeringNorwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)TrondheimNorway
| | | | | | - Anh Le Hoang
- Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)HanoiVietnam
| | - Shuaib Lwasa
- Department of GeographyMakerere UniversityKampalaUganda
| | - Pamela McElwee
- Department of Human EcologyRutgers UniversityNew BrunswickNJUSA
| | | | - Nobuko Saigusa
- Center for Global Environmental ResearchNational Institute for Environmental StudiesTsukubaIbarakiJapan
| | - Jean‐Francois Soussana
- French National Institute for Agricultural, Environment and Food Research (INRA)ParisFrance
| | - Miguel Angel Taboada
- National Agricultural Technology Institute (INTA)Natural Resources Research Center (CIRN)Institute of SoilsCiudad Autónoma de Buenos AiresArgentina
| | - Frances C. Manning
- Institute of Biological & Environmental SciencesUniversity of AberdeenAberdeenUK
| | - Dorothy Nampanzira
- Department of Livestock and Industrial ResourcesMakerere UniversityKampalaUganda
| | - Cristina Arias‐Navarro
- French National Institute for Agricultural, Environment and Food Research (INRA)ParisFrance
| | | | - Jo House
- School of Geographical SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - Stephanie Roe
- Department of Environmental SciencesUniversity of VirginiaCharlottesvilleVAUSA
- Climate FocusBerlinGermany
| | - Annette Cowie
- NSW Department of Primary IndustriesDPI AgricultureLivestock Industries CentreUniversity of New EnglandArmidaleNSWAustralia
| | - Mark Rounsevell
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Atmospheric Environmental Research (KIT, IMK‐IFU)Garmisch‐PartenkirchenGermany
- Institute of GeographyUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Atmospheric Environmental Research (KIT, IMK‐IFU)Garmisch‐PartenkirchenGermany
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7
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Turner SWD, Hejazi M, Calvin K, Kyle P, Kim S. A pathway of global food supply adaptation in a world with increasingly constrained groundwater. Sci Total Environ 2019; 673:165-176. [PMID: 30986676 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2019] [Revised: 03/29/2019] [Accepted: 04/05/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Many of the world's major freshwater aquifers are being exploited unsustainably, with some projected to approach environmentally unsafe drawdown limits within the 21st century. Given that aquifer depletion tends to occur in important crop producing regions, the prospect of running dry poses a significant threat to global food security. Here we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to explore the response of land use and agriculture sectors to severe constraints on global water resources. We simulate a scenario in which a number of important groundwater aquifers become depleted to the point where further water withdrawal is unviable, either due to excessive extraction costs or environmental limits being reached. Results are then benchmarked against a scenario that neglects constraints on water withdrawals. We find that groundwater depletion and associated water price increases drive two distinct responses in the agriculture sector: an expansion of rain fed agriculture, and a shift in irrigated crop production toward regions with cheaper water resources. Losses in crop production are most pronounced in water stressed regions where groundwater is being depleted unsustainably to meet irrigation demands-namely northwest India, Pakistan, the Middle East, western United States, Mexico, and Central Asia. While these results highlight substantial risks for the affected regional agricultural economies, we show that modest changes in irrigation and location of crop growth, in a world with frictionless trade, could ensure global food demands are met despite severe water constraints.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean W D Turner
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Battelle Seattle Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, United States of America.
| | - Mohamad Hejazi
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, United States of America
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, United States of America
| | - Page Kyle
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, United States of America
| | - Sonny Kim
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, United States of America
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8
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Alexander P, Prestele R, Verburg PH, Arneth A, Baranzelli C, Batista E Silva F, Brown C, Butler A, Calvin K, Dendoncker N, Doelman JC, Dunford R, Engström K, Eitelberg D, Fujimori S, Harrison PA, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Holzhauer S, Humpenöder F, Jacobs-Crisioni C, Jain AK, Krisztin T, Kyle P, Lavalle C, Lenton T, Liu J, Meiyappan P, Popp A, Powell T, Sands RD, Schaldach R, Stehfest E, Steinbuks J, Tabeau A, van Meijl H, Wise MA, Rounsevell MDA. Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:767-781. [PMID: 27474896 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2016] [Revised: 07/21/2016] [Accepted: 07/22/2016] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Alexander
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
- Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, UK
| | - Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Peter H Verburg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany
| | - Claudia Baranzelli
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Filipe Batista E Silva
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Calum Brown
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Adam Butler
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Nicolas Dendoncker
- Department of Geography, Namur Research Group on Sustainable Development, University of Namur, Rue de Bruxelles 61, Namur, B-5000, Belgium
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | - Robert Dunford
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Kerstin Engström
- Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Paradisgatan 2, Lund, Sweden
| | - David Eitelberg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Paula A Harrison
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Petr Havlik
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Sascha Holzhauer
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Chris Jacobs-Crisioni
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Tamás Krisztin
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Page Kyle
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Carlo Lavalle
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Tim Lenton
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Jiayi Liu
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Prasanth Meiyappan
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Tom Powell
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Ronald D Sands
- Resource and Rural Economics Division, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, 20250, USA
| | - Rüdiger Schaldach
- Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47, Kassel, D-34109, Germany
| | - Elke Stehfest
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | | | - Andrzej Tabeau
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Hans van Meijl
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Marshall A Wise
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
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9
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Prestele R, Alexander P, Rounsevell MDA, Arneth A, Calvin K, Doelman J, Eitelberg DA, Engström K, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Humpenöder F, Jain AK, Krisztin T, Kyle P, Meiyappan P, Popp A, Sands RD, Schaldach R, Schüngel J, Stehfest E, Tabeau A, Van Meijl H, Van Vliet J, Verburg PH. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison. Glob Chang Biol 2016; 22:3967-3983. [PMID: 27135635 PMCID: PMC5111780 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2016] [Accepted: 04/11/2016] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Peter Alexander
- School of GeoSciencesUniversity of EdinburghDrummond StreetEdinburghEH89XPUK
| | | | - Almut Arneth
- Department Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK‐IFU)Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyKreuzeckbahnstr. 1982467Garmisch‐PartenkirchenGermany
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Joint Global Change Research InstitutePacific Northwest National LaboratoryCollege ParkMD20740USA
| | - Jonathan Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyP.O. Box 3033720AH BilthovenThe Netherlands
| | - David A. Eitelberg
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Kerstin Engström
- Department of Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversitySölvegatan 12LundSweden
| | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies16‐2 OnogawaTsukubaIbaraki305‐8506Japan
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies16‐2 OnogawaTsukubaIbaraki305‐8506Japan
| | - Petr Havlik
- Ecosystem Services and Management ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisA‐2361LaxenburgAustria
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)P.O. Box 60 12 0314412PotsdamGermany
| | - Atul K. Jain
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of IllinoisUrbanaIL61801USA
| | - Tamás Krisztin
- Ecosystem Services and Management ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisA‐2361LaxenburgAustria
| | - Page Kyle
- Joint Global Change Research InstitutePacific Northwest National LaboratoryCollege ParkMD20740USA
| | - Prasanth Meiyappan
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of IllinoisUrbanaIL61801USA
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)P.O. Box 60 12 0314412PotsdamGermany
| | - Ronald D. Sands
- Resource and Rural Economics DivisionEconomic Research ServiceUS Department of AgricultureWashingtonDC20250USA
| | - Rüdiger Schaldach
- Center for Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of KasselWilhelmshöher Allee 47D‐34109KasselGermany
| | - Jan Schüngel
- Center for Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of KasselWilhelmshöher Allee 47D‐34109KasselGermany
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyP.O. Box 3033720AH BilthovenThe Netherlands
| | - Andrzej Tabeau
- LEIWageningen University and Research CentreP.O. Box 297032502LS The HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Hans Van Meijl
- LEIWageningen University and Research CentreP.O. Box 297032502LS The HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Jasper Van Vliet
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Peter H. Verburg
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSLZürcherstrasse 111CH‐8903BirmensdorfSwitzerland
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10
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Bond-Lamberty B, Rocha AV, Calvin K, Holmes B, Wang C, Goulden ML. Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest. Glob Chang Biol 2014; 20:216-227. [PMID: 24115380 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2013] [Accepted: 08/29/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Most North American forests are at some stage of post-disturbance regrowth, subject to a changing climate, and exhibit growth and mortality patterns that may not be closely coupled to annual environmental conditions. Distinguishing the possibly interacting effects of these processes is necessary to put short-term studies in a longer term context, and particularly important for the carbon-dense, fire-prone boreal forest. The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean tree diameter increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly. Tree mortality averaged 1.4 ± 0.6% yr-(1), with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees; new recruitment was minimal. There have been at least two, and probably three, significant influxes of new trees since stand initiation, but none in recent decades. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from sampling in 2001, 2004, and 2012 showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Higher minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. We suggest that past climate extremes led to significant mortality still visible in the current forest structure, with decadal dynamics superimposed on slower patterns of fire and succession. These results have significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS, the carbon sequestration capability of old-growth stands in a disturbance-prone landscape, and the sustainable management of regional forests in a changing climate.
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11
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Wise M, Calvin K, Thomson A, Clarke L, Bond-Lamberty B, Sands R, Smith SJ, Janetos A, Edmonds J. Implications of limiting CO2 concentrations for land use and energy. Science 2009; 324:1183-6. [PMID: 19478180 DOI: 10.1126/science.1168475] [Citation(s) in RCA: 651] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Limiting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations to low levels requires strategies to manage anthropogenic carbon emissions from terrestrial systems as well as fossil fuel and industrial sources. We explore the implications of fully integrating terrestrial systems and the energy system into a comprehensive mitigation regime that limits atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find that this comprehensive approach lowers the cost of meeting environmental goals but also carries with it profound implications for agriculture: Unmanaged ecosystems and forests expand, and food crop and livestock prices rise. Finally, we find that future improvement in food crop productivity directly affects land-use change emissions, making the technology for growing crops potentially important for limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marshall Wise
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland-College Park, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA
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12
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Abstract
The RNA-splicing endonuclease is an evolutionarily conserved enzyme responsible for the excision of introns from nuclear transfer RNA (tRNA) and all archaeal RNAs. Since its first identification from yeast in the late 1970s, significant progress has been made toward understanding the biochemical mechanisms of this enzyme. Four families of the splicing endonucleases possessing the same active sites and overall architecture but with different subunit compositions have been identified. Two related consensus structures of the precursor RNA splice sites and the critical elements required for intron excision have been established. More recently, a glimpse was obtained of the structural mechanism by which the endonuclease recognizes the consensus RNA structures and cleaves at the splice sites. This review summarizes these findings and discusses their implications in the evolution of intron removal processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- K Calvin
- Institute of Molecular Biophysics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA
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