Strengthening the Evidence for a Causal Link between Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Pancreatic Cancer: Insights from Two-Sample and Multivariable Mendelian Randomization

This two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study was conducted to investigate the causal associations between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the risk of pancreatic cancer (PaCa), as this causal relationship remains inconclusive in existing MR studies. The selection of instrumental variables for T2DM was based on two genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses from European cohorts. Summary-level data for PaCa were extracted from the FinnGen and UK Biobank databases. Inverse variance weighted (IVW) and four other robust methods were employed in our MR analysis. Various sensitivity analyses and multivariable MR approaches were also performed to enhance the robustness of our findings. In the IVW and Mendelian Randomization Pleiotropy RESidual Sum and Outlier (MR-PRESSO) analyses, the odds ratios (ORs) for each 1-unit increase in genetically predicted log odds of T2DM were approximately 1.13 for PaCa. The sensitivity tests and multivariable MR supported the causal link between T2DM and PaCa without pleiotropic effects. Therefore, our analyses suggest a causal relationship between T2DM and PaCa, shedding light on the potential pathophysiological mechanisms of T2DM's impact on PaCa. This finding underscores the importance of T2DM prevention as a strategy to reduce the risk of PaCa.

Identification of Genes with Rare Loss of Function Variants Associated with Aggressive Prostate Cancer and Survival

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer (PrCa) is a substantial cause of mortality among men globally. Rare germline mutations in BRCA2 have been validated robustly as increasing risk of aggressive forms with a poorer prognosis; however, evidence remains less definitive for other genes.

OBJECTIVE

To detect genes associated with PrCa aggressiveness, through a pooled analysis of rare variant sequencing data from six previously reported studies in the UK Genetic Prostate Cancer Study (UKGPCS).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We accumulated a cohort of 6805 PrCa cases, in which a set of ten candidate genes had been sequenced in all samples.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

We examined the association between rare putative loss of function (pLOF) variants in each gene and aggressive classification (defined as any of death from PrCa, metastatic disease, stage T4, or both stage T3 and Gleason score ≥8). Secondary analyses examined staging phenotypes individually. Cox proportional hazards modelling and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were used to further examine the relationship between mutation status and survival.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

We observed associations between PrCa aggressiveness and pLOF mutations in ATM, BRCA2, MSH2, and NBN (odds ratio = 2.67-18.9). These four genes and MLH1 were additionally associated with one or more secondary analysis phenotype. Carriers of germline mutations in these genes experienced shorter PrCa-specific survival (hazard ratio = 2.15, 95% confidence interval 1.79-2.59, p = 4 × 10-16) than noncarriers.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides further support that rare pLOF variants in specific genes are likely to increase aggressive PrCa risk and may help define the panel of informative genes for screening and treatment considerations.

PATIENT SUMMARY

By combining data from several previous studies, we have been able to enhance knowledge regarding genes in which inherited mutations would be expected to increase the risk of more aggressive PrCa. This may, in the future, aid in the identification of men at an elevated risk of dying from PrCa.

An Integrative Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Model in the UK Biobank

Pancreatic cancer (PaCa) is a lethal cancer with an increasing incidence, highlighting the need for early prevention strategies. There is a lack of a comprehensive PaCa predictive model derived from large prospective cohorts. Therefore, we have developed an integrated PaCa risk prediction model for PaCa using data from the UK Biobank, incorporating lifestyle-related, genetic-related, and medical history-related variables for application in healthcare settings. We used a machine learning-based random forest approach and a traditional multivariable logistic regression method to develop a PaCa predictive model for different purposes. Additionally, we employed dynamic nomograms to visualize the probability of PaCa risk in the prediction model. The top five influential features in the random forest model were age, PRS, pancreatitis, DM, and smoking. The significant risk variables in the logistic regression model included male gender (OR = 1.17), age (OR = 1.10), non-O blood type (OR = 1.29), higher polygenic score (PRS) (Q5 vs. Q1, OR = 2.03), smoking (OR = 1.82), alcohol consumption (OR = 1.27), pancreatitis (OR = 3.99), diabetes (DM) (OR = 2.57), and gallbladder-related disease (OR = 2.07). The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of the logistic regression model is 0.78. Internal validation and calibration performed well in both models. Our integrative PaCa risk prediction model with the PRS effectively stratifies individuals at future risk of PaCa, aiding targeted prevention efforts and supporting community-based cancer prevention initiatives.

The association of herpes zoster and influenza vaccinations with the risk of developing dementia: a population-based cohort study within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

BACKGROUND

Dementia affects ability to remember, think, or make decisions that interfere with doing everyday activities. There is no cure, therefore any prevention or delay of the onset is of importance. This study aims to investigate the association between zoster and influenza vaccinations and the risk of developing dementia.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study using electronic health records from 1469 general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum database with linked hospital episode statistics (HES) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality records. We built two 'matched cohorts': zoster vaccine (854,745 exposed individuals) matched with 8.8 million comparators without a history of zoster vaccination, and influenza vaccine (742,487 exposed individuals) matched with 7.12 million comparators without a history of vaccination as another comparator group. The cohorts were then followed to assess the association of exposure (vaccine) with outcome (dementia diagnosis).

RESULTS

Zoster vaccination was associated with a lower risk of dementia diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.78 with 95% CI: 0.77-0.79), Alzheimer's diagnosis (adjusted HR 0.91 with 95% CI: 0.89-0.92 and other types of dementia (adjusted HR 0.71 with 95% CI: 0.69-0.72). Influenza vaccination also was associated with a slightly reduced hazard of dementia risk (adjusted HR 0.96 with 95% CI: 0.94-0.97).

CONCLUSION

Both zoster vaccine for prevention of shingles / herpes zoster and influenza vaccine to prevent influenza were associated with diminished risk of dementia, with the zoster association appearing more pronounced.

Association between an inflammatory biomarker score and future dementia diagnosis in the population-based UK Biobank cohort of 500,000 people

This study was designed to investigate the relationship between a systematic inflammatory biomarker measure, concurrent and later cognitive performance, and future dementia risk. The literature has reported the potential involvement of inflammation in cognitive performance as well as Alzheimer's Disease, but not consistently. We used a population-based cohort of 500,000 people in the UK and assessed the association between a composite inflammatory biomarker and cognitive performance measures across five domains measured concurrently and 4-13 years later, taking advantage of the large sample size. We also assessed the same biomarker's association with dementia diagnosis 3-11 years later in the initially dementia-free sample. We report small but significant associations between elevated biomarker levels and worsened cognitive performance at baseline for four cognitive tasks (OR = 1.204, p<0.001 for Prospective memory, β = -0.366, p<0.001 for Fluid intelligence, β = 8.819, p<0.001 for Reaction time, and β = -0.224, p<0.001 for Numeric memory), comparing the highest quartile of the biomarker to the lowest. We also found that for one measure (Pairs matching) higher biomarker levels were associated with fewer errors, i.e. better performance (β = -0.096, p<0.001). We also report that the 4th quartiles of the baseline biomarker levels were significantly associated with cognitive task scores assessed years later on the p< = 0.002 level, except for the Pair matching test, for which none of the quartiles remained a significant predictor. Finally, the highest biomarker quartile was significantly associated with increased dementia risk compared to the lowest quartile (HR = 1.349, p<0.001). A case-only analysis to assess disease subtype heterogeneity suggested probable differences in the association with the highest biomarker quartile between vascular dementia and Alzheimer disease subtypes (OR = 1.483, p = 0.055). Our results indicate that systemic inflammation may play a small but significant part in dementia pathophysiology, especially in vascular dementia.

Exploring the causal role of the immune response to varicella-zoster virus on multiple traits: a phenome-wide Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

The immune response to infections could be largely driven by the individual's genes, especially in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region. Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) is a highly communicable pathogen. In addition to infection, the reactivations of VZV can be a potential causal factor for multiple traits. Identification of VZV immune response-related health conditions can therefore help elucidate the aetiology of certain diseases.

METHODS

A phenome-wide Mendelian randomization (MR) study of anti-VZV immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels with 1370 traits was conducted to explore the potential causal role of VZV-specific immune response on multiple traits using the UK Biobank cohort. For the robustness of the results, we performed MR analyses using five different methods. To investigate the impact of the MHC region on MR results, the analyses were conducted using instrumental variables (IVs) inside (IV_mhc) and outside (IV_no.mhc) the MHC region or all together (IV_full).

RESULTS

Forty-nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (IV_full) were associated with anti-VZV IgG levels, of which five (IV_mhc) were located in the MHC region and 44 (IV_no.mhc) were not. Statistical evidence (false discovery rate < 0.05 in at least three of the five MR methods) for a causal effect of anti-VZV IgG levels was found on 22 traits using IV_mhc, while no evidence was found when using IV_no.mhc or IV_full. The reactivations of VZV increased the risk of Dupuytren disease, mononeuropathies of the upper limb, sarcoidosis, coeliac disease, teeth problems and earlier onset of allergic rhinitis, which evidence was concordant with the literature. Suggestive causal evidence (P < 0.05 in at least three of five MR methods) using IV_full, IV_mhc and IV_no.mhc was detected in 92, 194 and 56 traits, respectively. MR results from IV_full correlated with those from IV_mhc or IV_no.mhc. However, the results between IV_mhc and IV_no.mhc were noticeably different, as evidenced by causal associations in opposite directions between anti-VZV IgG and ten traits.

CONCLUSIONS

In this exploratory study, anti-VZV IgG was causally associated with multiple traits. IVs in the MHC region might have a substantial impact on MR, and therefore, could be potentially considered in future MR studies.

Family History of Prostate Cancer and Survival Outcomes in the UK Genetic Prostate Cancer Study

BACKGROUND

A family history (FH) of prostate cancer (PrCa) is associated with an increased likelihood of PrCa diagnosis. Conflicting evidence exists regarding familial PrCa and clinical outcomes among PrCa patients, including all-cause mortality/overall survival (OS), PrCa-specific survival (PCSS), aggressive histology, and stage at diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE

To determine how the number, degree, and age of a PrCa patient's affected relatives are associated with OS and PCSS of those already diagnosed with PrCa.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The UK Genetic Prostate Cancer Study is a longitudinal, multi-institutional, observational study collecting baseline and follow-up clinical data since 1992. We examined OS and PCSS in 16340 men by degree and number of relatives with prostate and genetically related cancers (breast, ovarian, and colorectal).

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The primary outcome was all-cause mortality among PrCa patients. The risk of death with respect to FH was assessed by calculating hazard ratios from Cox proportional hazard regression models, adjusting for relevant factors.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

A stronger FH was inversely associated with the risk of all-cause and PrCa-specific mortality. This association was greater in those with an increasing number (p-trend < 0.001) and increasing closeness (p-trend < 0.001) of the diagnosed relatives. Patients with at least one first-degree relative were at a lower risk of all-cause mortality than those with no FH (hazard ratio = 0.82 [95% confidence interval 0.75-0.89]). The population is largely of European ancestry, and this may cause an issue with representation and generalisation. Data are missing on epidemiological risk factors for death such as smoking and on comorbidities. Recall of family members' diagnoses may affect the classification of FH in unconfirmed cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the investigation of the type and timing of relatives' cancers, it is likely that reductions in mortality are due almost completely to a greater awareness of the disease. This study provides information for clinicians guiding patients and their relatives based on their familial risk. It shows the importance of screening and awareness programmes, which are likely to improve survival among men with an FH.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We were interested in how a family history of prostate cancer affects survival in prostate cancer patients. We studied 16340 patients, categorised them according to the strength of their family history, and found that the stronger their family history, the better they did in terms of overall survival. We looked at the type and timing of patients' diagnoses compared with those of their relatives and found that this effect is likely to be explained by awareness, which indicates the importance of screening and awareness programmes.

Risk Factors Associated with Pancreatic Cancer in the UK Biobank Cohort

Evidence on pancreatic cancer (PaCa) risk factors from large population-based cohort studies is limited. This study investigated the PaCa risk factors and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of modifiable risk factors in the UK Biobank cohort. The UK Biobank is a prospective cohort consisting of 502,413 participants with a mean follow-up time of 8.2 years. A binomial generalized linear regression model was used to calculate relative risks for PaCa risk factors. PAF was calculated to estimate the proportional reduction in PaCa if modifiable risk factors were to be eliminated. A total of 728 (0.14%) PaCa incident cases and 412,922 (82.19%) non-PaCa controls were analyzed. The non-modifiable risk factors included age and gender. The modifiable risk factors were cigarette smoking, overweight and obesity, increased waist circumstance, abdominal obesity, Diabetic Mellitus (DM), and pancreatitis history. The PAF suggested that eliminating smoking and obesity can contribute around a 16% reduction in PaCa cases while avoiding abdominal obesity can eliminate PaCa cases by 22%. Preventing pancreatitis and DM could potentially reduce PaCa cases by 1% and 6%, respectively. This study has identified modifiable and non-modifiable PaCa risk factors in the UK population. The PAF of modifiable risk factors can be applied to inform PaCa prevention programs.

Quantifying the Effect of Physical Activity on Endometrial Cancer Risk

Endometrial cancer incidence is rising, with 435,000 global cases in 2019. An effective, low-cost primary prevention strategy is required to reduce disease burden. Obesity, insulin resistance, and inflammation contribute to endometrial carcinogenesis and physical activity targets these pathways. This study sought to quantify the amount of physical activity required to impact upon endometrial cancer risk. Physical activity data from 222,031 female participants with an intact uterus in the UK Biobank study were analyzed using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. A systematic review of the literature was performed, searching CENTRAL, Embase, and MEDLINE databases up to April 19, 2021. Studies including participants with and without endometrial cancer investigating the effect of physical activity measured in MET-hours/week (MET-h/week) on disease risk were included. Two reviewers independently selected studies, extracted data, and evaluated the risk of bias. Within the UK Biobank, each 1 MET-h/week increase in total physical activity was associated with a 0.2% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.1-0.4; P = 0.020] reduction in endometrial cancer risk, equating to a 10.4% reduction if performing 50 MET-h/week or 7 hours of jogging per week. Eleven cohort and 12 case-control studies were identified in the systematic review, including 821,599 participants. One study reported a nonsignificant effect of 1 MET-h/week increases in physical activity on endometrial cancer risk (OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.99-1.00). Eight studies found significant reductions in disease risk of 15%-53%, but only in the most physically active individuals. Physical activity reduces endometrial cancer risk, but the effect size appears small. Regular vigorous activity should be encouraged to maximize the health benefit observed.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE

Effective, low-cost primary prevention strategies are urgently needed to tackle the rapid global increase in endometrial cancer. We sought to quantify the effect of physical activity on endometrial cancer risk, noting a linear inverse relationship influenced by body mass index. The most beneficial type and amount of activity remain unclear.

A suggested shared aetiology of dementia - a colocalization study

Identification of shared causal genes between dementia and its related clinical outcomes can help understand shared aetiology and multimorbidity surrounding dementia. We performed the HyPrColoc colocalization analysis to detect possible shared causal genes between dementia or Alzheimer's disease (AD) and 5 selected traits: stroke, diabetes, atherosclerosis, cholesterol level, and alcohol consumption within 601 dementia or AD associated genetic regions using summary results of the UK Biobank genome-wide association studies. Functional analysis was performed on the candidate causal genes to explore potential biological pathways. Rs150562240 in the LPIN3 gene was identified as a candidate shared causal variant across dementia, AD and atherosclerosis. Evidence for pairwise colocalization between dementia and stroke, dementia (or AD) and atherosclerosis, and dementia (or AD) and diabetes was found in 2, 6 and 2 genetic regions respectively. Colocalization signals between diabetes and the other 3 non-dementia/AD traits were detected in 5 regions. The colocalization evidence shown in our study suggested shared aetiology between dementia and related diseases such as stroke, atherosclerosis, and diabetes.

Prostate cancer risk stratification improvement across multiple ancestries with new polygenic hazard score

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer risk stratification using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) demonstrates considerable promise in men of European, Asian, and African genetic ancestries, but there is still need for increased accuracy. We evaluated whether including additional SNPs in a prostate cancer polygenic hazard score (PHS) would improve associations with clinically significant prostate cancer in multi-ancestry datasets.

METHODS

In total, 299 SNPs previously associated with prostate cancer were evaluated for inclusion in a new PHS, using a LASSO-regularized Cox proportional hazards model in a training dataset of 72,181 men from the PRACTICAL Consortium. The PHS model was evaluated in four testing datasets: African ancestry, Asian ancestry, and two of European Ancestry-the Cohort of Swedish Men (COSM) and the ProtecT study. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated to compare men with high versus low PHS for association with clinically significant, with any, and with fatal prostate cancer. The impact of genetic risk stratification on the positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was also measured.

RESULTS

The final model (PHS290) had 290 SNPs with non-zero coefficients. Comparing, for example, the highest and lowest quintiles of PHS290, the hazard ratios (HRs) for clinically significant prostate cancer were 13.73 [95% CI: 12.43-15.16] in ProtecT, 7.07 [6.58-7.60] in African ancestry, 10.31 [9.58-11.11] in Asian ancestry, and 11.18 [10.34-12.09] in COSM. Similar results were seen for association with any and fatal prostate cancer. Without PHS stratification, the PPV of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer in ProtecT was 0.12 (0.11-0.14). For the top 20% and top 5% of PHS290, the PPV of PSA testing was 0.19 (0.15-0.22) and 0.26 (0.19-0.33), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate better genetic risk stratification for clinically significant prostate cancer than prior versions of PHS in multi-ancestry datasets. This is promising for implementing precision-medicine approaches to prostate cancer screening decisions in diverse populations.

Polygenic risk scores for prediction of breast cancer risk in Asian populations

PURPOSE

Non-European populations are under-represented in genetics studies, hindering clinical implementation of breast cancer polygenic risk scores (PRSs). We aimed to develop PRSs using the largest available studies of Asian ancestry and to assess the transferability of PRS across ethnic subgroups.

METHODS

The development data set comprised 138,309 women from 17 case-control studies. PRSs were generated using a clumping and thresholding method, lasso penalized regression, an Empirical Bayes approach, a Bayesian polygenic prediction approach, or linear combinations of multiple PRSs. These PRSs were evaluated in 89,898 women from 3 prospective studies (1592 incident cases).

RESULTS

The best performing PRS (genome-wide set of single-nucleotide variations [formerly single-nucleotide polymorphism]) had a hazard ratio per unit SD of 1.62 (95% CI = 1.46-1.80) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.635 (95% CI = 0.622-0.649). Combined Asian and European PRSs (333 single-nucleotide variations) had a hazard ratio per SD of 1.53 (95% CI = 1.37-1.71) and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.621 (95% CI = 0.608-0.635). The distribution of the latter PRS was different across ethnic subgroups, confirming the importance of population-specific calibration for valid estimation of breast cancer risk.

CONCLUSION

PRSs developed in this study, from association data from multiple ancestries, can enhance risk stratification for women of Asian ancestry.

Investigation of the association between the antibody responses to neurotropic viruses and dementia outcomes in the UK Biobank

The causes that trigger the onset of dementia are still unknown. Recently there has been an increasing interest in the possible role of infectious agents in the brain in the pathogenesis of this condition. Amongst the viruses, members of the Herpesviridae family, namely herpes simplex virus-1 (HSV1), cytomegalovirus (CMV), human herpesvirus-6 (HHV6), human herpesvirus-7 (HHV7) and varicella zoster virus (VZV) have been suggested as potential causes of the disease. However, the relative importance of these and other viruses in contributing to dementia remains unclear. We evaluated the association between seropositivity status of all viruses available in a large, population-based dataset (the UK Biobank) and dementia risk in an unbiased way. Of the 15 viruses investigated, our results showed a statistically significant increase of dementia risk associated only with HSV1 seropositivity (OR 2.14, 95% C.I. 1.21-3.81). However, by combining the data we found that seropositivity for 4 viruses (HSV1, HHV6, HHV7 and VZV) also significantly increases the risk of dementia (OR = 2.37, 95% C.I. 1.43-3.92). These four viruses have been described previously as neurotropic viruses. Our results provide support for a role for neurotropic viruses in the pathology of dementia.

Alcohol Intake and Alcohol-SNP Interactions Associated with Prostate Cancer Aggressiveness

Excessive alcohol intake is a well-known modifiable risk factor for many cancers. It is still unclear whether genetic variants or single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) can modify alcohol intake's impact on prostate cancer (PCa) aggressiveness. The objective is to test the alcohol-SNP interactions of the 7501 SNPs in the four pathways (angiogenesis, mitochondria, miRNA, and androgen metabolism-related pathways) associated with PCa aggressiveness. We evaluated the impacts of three excessive alcohol intake behaviors in 3306 PCa patients with European ancestry from the PCa Consortium. We tested the alcohol-SNP interactions using logistic models with the discovery-validation study design. All three excessive alcohol intake behaviors were not significantly associated with PCa aggressiveness. However, the interactions of excessive alcohol intake and three SNPs (rs13107662 [CAMK2D, p = 6.2 × 10-6], rs9907521 [PRKCA, p = 7.1 × 10-5], and rs11925452 [ROBO1, p = 8.2 × 10-4]) were significantly associated with PCa aggressiveness. These alcohol-SNP interactions revealed contrasting effects of excessive alcohol intake on PCa aggressiveness according to the genotypes in the identified SNPs. We identified PCa patients with the rs13107662 (CAMK2D) AA genotype, the rs11925452 (ROBO1) AA genotype, and the rs9907521 (PRKCA) AG genotype were more vulnerable to excessive alcohol intake for developing aggressive PCa. Our findings support that the impact of excessive alcohol intake on PCa aggressiveness was varied by the selected genetic profiles.

Association of Nongenetic Factors With Breast Cancer Risk in Genetically Predisposed Groups of Women in the UK Biobank Cohort

IMPORTANCE

The association between noninherited factors, including lifestyle factors, and the risk of breast cancer (BC) in women and the association between BC and genetic makeup are only partly characterized. A study using data on current genetic stratification may help in the characterization.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between healthier lifestyle habits and BC risk in genetically predisposed groups.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Data from UK Biobank, a prospective cohort comprising 2728 patients with BC and 88 489 women without BC, were analyzed. The data set used for the analysis was closed on March 31, 2019. The analysis was restricted to postmenopausal white women. Classification of healthy lifestyle was based on Cancer Research UK guidance (healthy weight, regular exercise, no use of hormone replacement therapy for more than 5 years, no oral contraceptive use, and alcohol intake <3 times/wk). Three groups were established: favorable (≥4 healthy factors), intermediate (2-3 healthy factors), and unfavorable (≤1 healthy factor). The genetic contribution was estimated using the polygenic risk scores of 305 preselected single-nucleotide variations. Polygenic risk scores were categorized into 3 tertiles (low, intermediate, and high).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the hazard ratios (HRs) of the lifestyles and polygenic risk scores associated with a malignant neoplasm of the breast.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age of the 2728 women with BC was 60.1 (5.5) years, and mean age of the 88 489 women serving as controls was 59.4 (4.9) years. The median follow-up time for the cohort was 10 years (maximum 13 years) (interquartile range, 9.44-10.82 years). Women with BC had a higher body mass index (relative risk [RR], 1.14; 95% CI, 1.05-1.23), performed less exercise (RR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.25), used hormonal replacement therapy for longer than 5 years (RR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.13-1.34), used more oral contraceptives (RR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.93-1.12), and had greater alcohol intake (RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03-1.19) compared with the controls. Overall, 20 657 women (23.3%) followed a favorable lifestyle, 60 195 women (68.0%) followed an intermediate lifestyle, and 7637 women (8.6%) followed an unfavorable lifestyle. The RR of the highest genetic risk group was 2.55 (95% CI, 2.28-2.84), and the RR of the most unfavorable lifestyle category was 1.44 (95% CI, 1.25-1.65). The association of lifestyle and BC within genetic subgroups showed lower HRs among women following a favorable lifestyle compared with intermediate and unfavorable lifestyles among all of the genetic groups: women with an unfavorable lifestyle had a higher risk of BC in the low genetic group (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.13-2.34), intermediate genetic group (HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.46-2.58), and high genetic group (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.11-1.74) compared with the reference group of favorable lifestyle. Intermediate lifestyle was also associated with a higher risk of BC among the low genetic group (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.09-1.80) and the intermediate genetic group (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.12-1.68).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study of data on women in the UK Biobank, a healthier lifestyle with more exercise, healthy weight, low alcohol intake, no oral contraceptive use, and no or limited hormonal replacement therapy use appeared to be associated with a reduced level of risk for BC, even if the women were at higher genetic risk for BC.

The association between weight at birth and breast cancer risk revisited using Mendelian randomisation

Observational studies suggest that higher birth weight (BW) is associated with increased risk of breast cancer in adult life. We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to assess whether this association is causal. Sixty independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) known to be associated at P < 5 × 10-8 with BW were used to construct (1) a 41-SNP instrumental variable (IV) for univariable MR after removing SNPs with pleiotropic associations with other breast cancer risk factors and (2) a 49-SNP IV for multivariable MR after filtering SNPs for data availability. BW predicted by the 41-SNP IV was not associated with overall breast cancer risk in inverse-variance weighted (IVW) univariable MR analysis of genetic association data from 122,977 breast cancer cases and 105,974 controls (odds ratio = 0.86 per 500 g higher BW; 95% confidence interval 0.73-1.01). Sensitivity analyses using four alternative methods and three alternative IVs, including an IV with 59 of the 60 BW-associated SNPs, yielded similar results. Multivariable MR adjusting for the effects of the 49-SNP IV on birth length, adult height, adult body mass index, age at menarche, and age at menopause using IVW and MR-Egger methods provided estimates consistent with univariable analyses. Results were also similar when all analyses were repeated after restricting to estrogen receptor-positive or -negative breast cancer cases. Point estimates of the odds ratios from most analyses performed indicated an inverse relationship between genetically-predicted BW and breast cancer, but we are unable to rule out an association between the non-genetically-determined component of BW and breast cancer. Thus, genetically-predicted higher BW was not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer in adult life in our MR study.

Review of non-clinical risk models to aid prevention of breast cancer

A disease risk model is a statistical method which assesses the probability that an individual will develop one or more diseases within a stated period of time. Such models take into account the presence or absence of specific epidemiological risk factors associated with the disease and thereby potentially identify individuals at higher risk. Such models are currently used clinically to identify people at higher risk, including identifying women who are at increased risk of developing breast cancer. Many genetic and non-genetic breast cancer risk models have been developed previously. We have evaluated existing non-genetic/non-clinical models for breast cancer that incorporate modifiable risk factors. This review focuses on risk models that can be used by women themselves in the community in the absence of clinical risk factors characterization. The inclusion of modifiable factors in these models means that they can be used to improve primary prevention and health education pertinent for breast cancer. Literature searches were conducted using PubMed, ScienceDirect and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Fourteen studies were eligible for review with sample sizes ranging from 654 to 248,407 participants. All models reviewed had acceptable calibration measures, with expected/observed (E/O) ratios ranging from 0.79 to 1.17. However, discrimination measures were variable across studies with concordance statistics (C-statistics) ranging from 0.56 to 0.89. We conclude that breast cancer risk models that include modifiable risk factors have been well calibrated but have less ability to discriminate. The latter may be a consequence of the omission of some significant risk factors in the models or from applying models to studies with limited sample sizes. More importantly, external validation is missing for most of the models. Generalization across models is also problematic as some variables may not be considered applicable to some populations and each model performance is conditioned by particular population characteristics. In conclusion, it is clear that there is still a need to develop a more reliable model for estimating breast cancer risk which has a good calibration, ability to accurately discriminate high risk and with better generalizability across populations.

Risk of breast cancer in the UK biobank female cohort and its relationship to anthropometric and reproductive factors

BACKGROUND

Anthropometric and reproductive factors have been reported as being established risk factors for breast cancer (BC). This study explores the contribution of anthropometric and reproductive factors in UK females developing BC in a large longitudinal cohort.

METHODS

Data from the UK Biobank prospective study of 273,467 UK females were analyzed. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each factor were adjusted for age, family history of BC and deprivation score. The analyses were stratified by the menopausal status.

RESULTS

Over the 9 years of follow up the total number of BC cases were 14,231 with 3,378 (23.7%) incident cases with an incidence rate of 2.09 per 1000 person-years. In pre-menopausal, increase in age, height, having low BMI, low waist to hip ratio, first degree family history of BC, early menarche age, nulliparous, late age at first live birth, high reproductive interval index, and long contraceptive use duration were all significantly associated with an increased BC risk. In post-menopausal, getting older, being taller, having high BMI, first degree BC family history, nulliparous, late age at first live birth, and high reproductive interval index were all significantly associated with an increased risk of BC. The population attributable fraction (PAF) suggested that an early first live birth, lower reproductive interval index and increased number of children can contribute to BC risk reduction up to 50%.

CONCLUSIONS

This study utilizes the UK Biobank study to confirm associations between anthropometric and reproductive factors and the risk of breast cancer development. Result of attributable fraction of risk contributed by each risk factor suggested that lifetime risk of BC can be reduced by controlling weight, reassessing individual approaches to the timing of childbirth and options for contraception and considering early screening for women with family history in the first degree relative.

Risk biomarkers enable precision in public health

Precision medicine uses biomarkers to diagnose disease. However, they can also be used to measure risk of disease. Thus, biomarkers herald a new addition to public health - Precision Public Health. We examine the implications. Risk biomarkers are identified by analyzing population cohorts. They constitute risk factors in mathematical 'Disease Risk Models'. The risk may be fixed as in a genetic biomarker or variable as in some protein biomarkers. They help monitor current risk of disease in an individual, thereby aiding efforts to reduce risk. In the UK, the NHS Health Check system is a universal system for assessing risk and for risk reduction. The system can now make use of modern biomarkers once appropriate infrastructure and governance are in place.

Development of a Cancer Risk Prediction Tool for Use in the UK Primary Care and Community Settings

Several multivariable risk prediction models have been developed to asses an individual's risk of developing specific cancers. Such models can be used in a variety of settings for prevention, screening, and guiding investigations and treatments. Models aimed at predicting future disease risk that contains lifestyle factors may be of particular use for targeting health promotion activities at an individual level. This type of cancer risk prediction is not yet available in the UK. We have adopted the approach used by the well-established U.S.-derived "YourCancerRisk" model for use in the UK population, which allow users to quantify their individual risk of developing individual cancers relative to the population average risk. The UK version of "YourCancerRisk" computes 10-year cancer risk estimates for 11 cancers utilizing UK figures for prevalence of risk factors and cancer incidence. Because the prevalence of risk factors and the incidence rates for cancer are different between the U.S. and the UK population, this UK model provides more accurate estimates of risks for a UK population. Using an example of breast cancer and data from UK Biobank cohort, we demonstrate that the individual risk factor estimates are similar for the U.S. and UK populations. Assessment of the performance and validation of the multivariate model predictions based on a binary score confirm the model's applicability. The model can be used to estimate absolute and relative cancer risk for use in Primary Care and community settings and is being used in the community to guide lifestyle change. Cancer Prev Res; 10(7); 421-30. ©2017 AACR.

Pain in knee osteoarthritis is associated with variation in the neurokinin 1/substance P receptor (TACR1) gene

BACKGROUND

Substance P (SP) is a pain- and inflammation-related neuropeptide which preferentially binds to the neurokinin receptor 1 (NK₁ ). SP and NK₁ receptors have been implicated in joint pain, inflammation and damage in animal models and human studies of osteoarthritis (OA). The aim of this study was to test if genetic variation at the neurokinin 1 receptor gene (TACR1) is associated with pain in individuals with radiographic knee OA.

METHODS

Participants from the Genetics of OA and Lifestyle study were used for the discovery group (n = 1615). Genotype data for six SNPs selected to cover most variation in the TACR1 gene were used to test for an association with symptomatic OA. Replication analysis was performed using data from the Chingford 1000 Women Study, Hertfordshire Cohort Study, Tasmanian Older Adult Cohort Study and the Clearwater OA Study. In total, n = 1715 symptomatic OA and n = 735 asymptomatic OA individuals were analysed.

RESULTS

Out of six SNPs tested in the TACR1 gene, one (rs11688000) showed a nominally significant association with a decreased risk of symptomatic OA in the discovery cohort. This was then replicated in four additional cohorts. After adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and radiographic severity, the G (minor) allele at rs11688000 was associated with a decreased risk of symptomatic OA compared to asymptomatic OA cases (p = 9.90 × 10^-4 , OR = 0.79 95% 0.68-0.90 after meta-analysis).

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports a contribution from the TACR1 gene in human OA pain, supporting further investigation of this gene's function in OA.

SIGNIFICANCE

This study contributes to the knowledge of the genetics of painful osteoarthritis, a condition which affects millions of individuals worldwide. Specifically, a contribution from the TACR1 gene to modulating pain sensitivity in osteoarthritis is suggested.

Abstract B10: Development of a cancer risk prediction tool for use in the Risk Estimation For Lifestyle Enhancement Combined Trial (REFLECT)

This abstract is being presented as a short talk in the scientific program. A full abstract is printed in the Proffered Abstracts section (PR14) of the Conference Proceedings.

Citation Format: Artitaya Lophatananon, Kawthar Alajmi, Emma Thorpe, John Hughes, Joanna Blodgett, Bernadette Fisher, Simon Rogers, Erika K. Waters, Kenneth R. Muir. Development of a cancer risk prediction tool for use in the Risk Estimation For Lifestyle Enhancement Combined Trial (REFLECT). [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Improving Cancer Risk Prediction for Prevention and Early Detection; Nov 16-19, 2016; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2017;26(5 Suppl):Abstract nr B10.

Abstract PR14: Development of a cancer risk prediction tool for use in the Risk Estimation For Lifestyle Enhancement Combined Trial (REFLECT)

Exposure to modifiable lifestyle and environmental risk factors accounts for approximately 40% of all cancers in the UK. Therefore, primary prevention is of growing importance and an effective and engaging strategy that encourages long-term adoption of healthy lifestyle behaviours is required.

Several multivariable risk prediction models have been developed to assess an individual's risk of developing specific cancers. Such models can be used in a variety of settings for prevention, screening, and guiding investigation and treatment. Models aimed at predicting future disease risk that contains modifiable factors may be of particular use for targeting health promotion activities at an individual level. We have therefore developed a UK version of the well-established U.S. derived “YourDiseaseRisk” model which allow users to quantify their individual risk of developing individual cancers relative to the population average risk.

The UK-Manchester version of “YourDiseaseRisk” computes 10 year cancer risk for 11 cancer types utilising UK figures for prevalence of risk factors and cancer incidence. The model can be used to estimate cancer risk for use in community settings.

Using a variety of qualitative and quantitative methods we have assessed the impact of the REFLECT risk model on public understanding of cancer risk factors and UK NHS Cancer Screening programs. We have also explored public opinion and perceptions regarding the provision of information on of genetic susceptibility to aid in further personalising cancer risk information.

This abstract is also being presented as Poster B10.

Citation Format: Artitaya Lophatananon, Kawthar Alajmi, Emma Thorpe, John Hughes, Joanna Blodgett, Bernadette Fisher, Simon Rogers, Erika K. Waters, Kenneth R. Muir. Development of a cancer risk prediction tool for use in the Risk Estimation For Lifestyle Enhancement Combined Trial (REFLECT). [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference: Improving Cancer Risk Prediction for Prevention and Early Detection; Nov 16-19, 2016; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2017;26(5 Suppl):Abstract nr PR14.

Incorporating cancer risk information into general practice: a qualitative study using focus groups with health professionals

BACKGROUND

It is estimated that approximately 40% of all cases of cancer are attributable to lifestyle factors. Providing people with personalised information about their future risk of cancer may help promote behaviour change.

AIM

To explore the views of health professionals on incorporating personalised cancer risk information, based on lifestyle factors, into general practice.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Qualitative study using data from six focus groups with a total of 24 general practice health professionals from the NHS Nene Clinical Commissioning Group in England.

METHOD

The focus groups were guided by a schedule covering current provision of lifestyle advice relating to cancer and views on incorporating personalised cancer risk information. Data were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim, and then analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Providing lifestyle advice was viewed as a core activity within general practice but the influence of lifestyle on cancer risk was rarely discussed. The word 'cancer' was seen as a potentially powerful motivator for lifestyle change but the fact that it could generate health anxiety was also recognised. Most focus group participants felt that a numerical risk estimate was more likely to influence behaviour than generic advice. All felt that general practice should provide this information, but there was a clear need for additional resources for it to be offered widely.

CONCLUSION

Study participants were in support of providing personalised cancer risk information in general practice. The findings highlight a number of potential benefits and challenges that will inform the future development of interventions in general practice to promote behaviour change for cancer prevention.

Improving Clinical Risk Stratification at Diagnosis in Primary Prostate Cancer: A Prognostic Modelling Study

INTRODUCTION

Over 80% of the nearly 1 million men diagnosed with prostate cancer annually worldwide present with localised or locally advanced non-metastatic disease. Risk stratification is the cornerstone for clinical decision making and treatment selection for these men. The most widely applied stratification systems use presenting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration, biopsy Gleason grade, and clinical stage to classify patients as low, intermediate, or high risk. There is, however, significant heterogeneity in outcomes within these standard groupings. The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) has recently adopted a prognosis-based pathological classification that has yet to be included within a risk stratification system. Here we developed and tested a new stratification system based on the number of individual risk factors and incorporating the new ISUP prognostic score.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Diagnostic clinicopathological data from 10,139 men with non-metastatic prostate cancer were available for this study from the Public Health England National Cancer Registration Service Eastern Office. This cohort was divided into a training set (n = 6,026; 1,557 total deaths, with 462 from prostate cancer) and a testing set (n = 4,113; 1,053 total deaths, with 327 from prostate cancer). The median follow-up was 6.9 y, and the primary outcome measure was prostate-cancer-specific mortality (PCSM). An external validation cohort (n = 1,706) was also used. Patients were first categorised as low, intermediate, or high risk using the current three-stratum stratification system endorsed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines. The variables used to define the groups (PSA concentration, Gleason grading, and clinical stage) were then used to sub-stratify within each risk category by testing the individual and then combined number of risk factors. In addition, we incorporated the new ISUP prognostic score as a discriminator. Using this approach, a new five-stratum risk stratification system was produced, and its prognostic power was compared against the current system, with PCSM as the outcome. The results were analysed using a Cox hazards model, the log-rank test, Kaplan-Meier curves, competing-risks regression, and concordance indices. In the training set, the new risk stratification system identified distinct subgroups with different risks of PCSM in pair-wise comparison (p < 0.0001). Specifically, the new classification identified a very low-risk group (Group 1), a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with a low PCSM risk (Group 2, hazard ratio [HR] 1.62 [95% CI 0.96-2.75]), and a subgroup of intermediate-risk cancers with an increased PCSM risk (Group 3, HR 3.35 [95% CI 2.04-5.49]) (p < 0.0001). High-risk cancers were also sub-classified by the new system into subgroups with lower and higher PCSM risk: Group 4 (HR 5.03 [95% CI 3.25-7.80]) and Group 5 (HR 17.28 [95% CI 11.2-26.67]) (p < 0.0001), respectively. These results were recapitulated in the testing set and remained robust after inclusion of competing risks. In comparison to the current risk stratification system, the new system demonstrated improved prognostic performance, with a concordance index of 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.77) versus 0.69 (95% CI 0.66-0.71) (p < 0.0001). In an external cohort, the new system achieved a concordance index of 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.84) for predicting PCSM versus 0.66 (95% CI 0.63-0.69) (p < 0.0001) for the current NICE risk stratification system. The main limitations of the study were that it was registry based and that follow-up was relatively short.

CONCLUSIONS

A novel and simple five-stratum risk stratification system outperforms the standard three-stratum risk stratification system in predicting the risk of PCSM at diagnosis in men with primary non-metastatic prostate cancer, even when accounting for competing risks. This model also allows delineation of new clinically relevant subgroups of men who might potentially receive more appropriate therapy for their disease. Future research will seek to validate our results in external datasets and will explore the value of including additional variables in the system in order in improve prognostic performance.

Generation of Functional Beta-Like Cells from Human Exocrine Pancreas

Transcription factor mediated lineage reprogramming of human pancreatic exocrine tissue could conceivably provide an unlimited supply of islets for transplantation in the treatment of diabetes. Exocrine tissue can be efficiently reprogrammed to islet-like cells using a cocktail of transcription factors: Pdx1, Ngn3, MafA and Pax4 in combination with growth factors. We show here that overexpression of exogenous Pax4 in combination with suppression of the endogenous transcription factor ARX considerably enhances the production of functional insulin-secreting β-like cells with concomitant suppression of α-cells. The efficiency was further increased by culture on laminin-coated plates in media containing low glucose concentrations. Immunocytochemistry revealed that reprogrammed cultures were composed of ~45% islet-like clusters comprising >80% monohormonal insulin⁺ cells. The resultant β-like cells expressed insulin protein levels at ~15–30% of that in adult human islets, efficiently processed proinsulin and packaged insulin into secretory granules, exhibited glucose responsive insulin secretion, and had an immediate and prolonged effect in normalising blood glucose levels upon transplantation into diabetic mice. We estimate that approximately 3 billion of these cells would have an immediate therapeutic effect following engraftment in type 1 diabetes patients and that one pancreas would provide sufficient tissue for numerous transplants.

Trends and outcome from radical therapy for primary non-metastatic prostate cancer in a UK population

Background

Increasing proportions of men diagnosed with prostate cancer in the UK are presenting with non-metastatic disease. We investigated how treatment trends in this demographic have changed.

Patient and Methods

Non-metastatic cancers diagnosed from 2000–2010 in the UK Anglian Cancer network stratified by age and risk group were analysed [n = 10,365]. Radiotherapy [RT] and prostatectomy [RP] cancer specific survival [CSS] were further compared [n = 4755].

Results

Over the decade we observed a fall in uptake of primary androgen deprivation therapy but a rise in conservative management [CM] and radical therapy [p<0.0001]. CM in particular has become the primary management for low-risk disease by the decade end [p<0.0001]. In high-risk disease however both RP and RT uptake increased significantly but in an age dependent manner [p<0.0001]. Principally, increased RP in younger men and increased RT in men ≥ 70y. In multivariate analysis of radically treated men both high-risk disease [HR 8.0 [2.9–22.2], p<0.0001] and use of RT [HR 1.9 [1.0–3.3], p = 0.024] were significant predictors of a poorer CSM. In age-stratified analysis however, the trend to benefit of RP over RT was seen only in younger men [≤ 60 years] with high-risk disease [p = 0.07]. The numbers needed to treat by RP instead of RT to save one cancer death was 19 for this group but 67 for the overall cohort.

Conclusion

This study has identified significant shifts in non-metastatic prostate cancer management over the last decade. Low-risk disease is now primarily managed by CM while high-risk disease is increasingly treated radically. Treatment of high-risk younger men by RP is supported by evidence of better CSM but this benefit is not evident in older men.

Krüppel-Like Factor 4 Overexpression Initiates a Mesenchymal-to-Epithelial Transition and Redifferentiation of Human Pancreatic Cells following Expansion in Long Term Adherent Culture

A replenishable source of insulin-producing cells has the potential to cure type 1 diabetes. Attempts to culture and expand pancreatic β-cells in vitro have resulted in their transition from insulin-producing epithelial cells to mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) with high proliferative capacity but devoid of any hormone production. The aim of this study was to determine whether the transcription factor Krüppel-like factor 4 (KLF4), could induce a mesenchymal-to-epithelial transition (MET) of the cultured cells. Islet-enriched pancreatic cells, allowed to dedifferentiate and expand in adherent cell culture, were transduced with an adenovirus containing KLF4 (Ad-Klf4). Cells were subsequently analysed for changes in cell morphology by light microscopy, and for the presence of epithelial and pancreatic markers by immunocytochemistry and quantitative RT/PCR. Infection with Ad-Klf4 resulted in morphological changes, down-regulation of mesenchymal markers, and re-expression of both epithelial and pancreatic cell markers including insulin and transcription factors specific to β-cells. This effect was further enhanced by culturing cells in suspension. However, the effects of Ad-KLf4 were transient and this was shown to be due to increased apoptosis in Klf4-expressing cells. Klf4 has been recently identified as a pioneer factor with the ability to modulate the structure of chromatin and enhance reprogramming/transdifferentiation. Our results show that Klf4 may have a role in the redifferentiation of expanded pancreatic cells in culture, but before this can be achieved the off-target effects that result in increased apoptosis would need to be overcome.

The effect of FTO variation on increased osteoarthritis risk is mediated through body mass index: a Mendelian randomisation study

OBJECTIVE

Variation in the fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene influences susceptibility to obesity. A variant in the FTO gene has been implicated in genetic risk to osteoarthritis (OA). We examined the role of the FTO polymorphism rs8044769 in risk of knee and hip OA in cases and controls incorporating body mass index (BMI) information.

METHODS

5409 knee OA patients, 4355 hip OA patients and up to 5362 healthy controls from 7 independent cohorts from the UK and Australia were genotyped for rs8044769. The association of the FTO variant with OA was investigated in case/control analyses with and without BMI adjustment and in analyses matched for BMI category. A mendelian randomisation approach was employed using the FTO variant as the instrumental variable to evaluate the role of overweight on OA.

RESULTS

In the meta-analysis of all overweight (BMI≥25) samples versus normal-weight controls irrespective of OA status the association of rs8044769 with overweight is highly significant (OR[CIs] for allele G=1.14 [01.08 to 1.19], p=7.5×10(-7)). A significant association with knee OA is present in the analysis without BMI adjustment (OR[CIs]=1.08[1.02 to 1.14], p=0.009) but the signal fully attenuates after BMI adjustment (OR[CIs]=0.99[0.93 to 1.05], p=0.666). We observe no evidence for association in the BMI-matched meta-analyses. Using mendelian randomisation approaches we confirm the causal role of overweight on OA.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data highlight the contribution of genetic risk to overweight in defining risk to OA but the association is exclusively mediated by the effect on BMI. This is consistent with what is known of the biology of the FTO gene and supports the causative role of high BMI in OA.

Polymorphisms of an innate immune gene, toll-like receptor 4, and aggressive prostate cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) is one of the best known TLR members expressed on the surface of several leukocytes and tissue cells and has a key function in detecting pathogen and danger-associated molecular patterns. The role of TLR4 in the pathophysiology of several age-related diseases is also well recognized, such as prostate cancer (PCa). TLR4 polymorphisms have been related to PCa risk, but the relationship between TLR4 genotypes and aggressive PCa risk has not been evaluated by any systematic reviews.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of candidate-gene and genome-wide association studies analyzing this relationship and included only white population. Considering appropriate criteria, only nine studies were analyzed in the meta-analysis, including 3,937 aggressive PCa and 7,382 controls.

RESULTS

Using random effects model, no significant association was found in the ten TLR4 SNPs reported by at least four included studies under any inheritance model (rs2737191, rs1927914, rs10759932, rs1927911, rs11536879, rs2149356, rs4986790, rs11536889, rs7873784, and rs1554973). Pooled estimates from another ten TLR4 SNPs reported by three studies also showed no significant association (rs10759930, rs10116253, rs11536869, rs5030717, rs4986791, rs11536897, rs1927906, rs913930, rs1927905, and rs7045953). Meta-regression revealed that study type was not a significant source of between-study heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

TLR4 polymorphisms were not significantly associated with the risk of aggressive PCa.

Self-reported adult footwear and the risks of lower limb osteoarthritis: the GOAL case control study

Background

Biomechanical factors may play a role in osteoarthritis (OA) development and progression. Previous biomechanical studies have indicated that types of footwear may modulate forces across the knee joint, and high heeled womens’ shoes in particular are hypothesised to be detrimental to lower limb joint health. This analysis of data from a case control study investigated persistent users of different adult footwear for risks of knee and hip OA. Our underlying hypotheses were that high heeled, narrow heeled, and hard soled shoe types were putative risk factors for lower limb OA.

Methods

Data on footwear were initially obtained from participants during the Genetics of Osteoarthritis and Lifestyle (GOAL) hospital-based, case control study using standardised interview-delivered questionnaires. An additional questionnaire was later sent to GOAL study participants to verify findings and to further investigate specific shoe use per decade of life. Persistent users of footwear types (high or narrow heel; sole thickness or hardness) were identified from early adulthood. Participants were grouped into single sex knee OA, hip OA or control groups. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated.

Results

Univariate analysis of persistent users of women’s high heeled and narrow heeled shoes during early adulthood showed negative associations with knee OA and hip OA. After logistic regression, persistent narrow heel users were associated with less risk of OA (knee OA aOR 0.59, 95% CI 0.35 – 1.00 and hip aOR: 0.50, 95% CI 0.30 – 0.85), and other analyses were not statistically significant. Further analysis suggested that women with hip OA may have stopped wearing high and narrow heeled footwear to attenuate hip pain in early adulthood. Consistent associations between shoe soles and OA were not found.

Conclusions

In general, persistent users of high and narrow heeled shoes during early adulthood had a negative association with knee or hip OA. This does not necessarily imply a causal relationship, as changing footwear during early adulthood to modulate index joint pain may provide a possible explanation. Despite the findings of previous biomechanical studies of high heels, we did not find a positive association between women’s shoes and lower limb osteoarthritis.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2474-15-308) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cell therapy for type 1 diabetes

Cell therapy in the form of human islet transplantation has been a successful form of treatment for patients with type 1 diabetes for over 10 years, but is significantly limited by lack of suitable donor material. A replenishable supply of insulin-producing cells has the potential to address this problem; however to date success has been limited to a few preclinical studies. Two of the most promising strategies include differentiation of embryonic stem cells and induced pluripotent stem cells towards insulin-producing cells and transdifferentiation of acinar or other closely related cell types towards β-cells. Here, we discuss recent progress and challenges that need to be overcome in taking cell therapy to the clinic.

Changing presentation of prostate cancer in a UK population--10 year trends in prostate cancer risk profiles in the East of England

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer incidence is rising in the United Kingdom but there is little data on whether the disease profile is changing. To address this, we interrogated a regional cancer registry for temporal changes in presenting disease characteristics.

METHODS

Prostate cancers diagnosed from 2000 to 2010 in the Anglian Cancer Network (n=21,044) were analysed. Risk groups (localised disease) were assigned based on NICE criteria. Age standardised incidence rates (IRs) were compared between 2000-2005 and 2006-2010 and plotted for yearly trends.

RESULTS

Over the decade, overall IR increased significantly (P<0.00001), whereas metastasis rates fell (P<0.0007). For localised disease, IR across all risk groups also increased but at different rates (P<0.00001). The most striking change was a three-fold increase in intermediate-risk cancers. Increased IR was evident across all PSA and stage ranges but with no upward PSA or stage shift. In contrast, IR of histological diagnosis of low-grade cancers fell over the decade, whereas intermediate and high-grade diagnosis increased significantly (P<0.00001).

CONCLUSION

This study suggests evidence of a significant upward migration in intermediate and high-grade histological diagnosis over the decade. This is most likely to be due to a change in histological reporting of diagnostic prostate biopsies. On the basis of this data, increasing proportions of newly diagnosed cancers will be considered eligible for radical treatment, which will have an impact on health resource planning and provision.

Suppression of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transitioning enhances ex vivo reprogramming of human exocrine pancreatic tissue toward functional insulin-producing β-like cells

Because of the lack of tissue available for islet transplantation, new sources of β-cells have been sought for the treatment of type 1 diabetes. The aim of this study was to determine whether the human exocrine-enriched fraction from the islet isolation procedure could be reprogrammed to provide additional islet tissue for transplantation. The exocrine-enriched cells rapidly dedifferentiated in culture and grew as a mesenchymal monolayer. Genetic lineage tracing confirmed that these mesenchymal cells arose, in part, through a process of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transitioning (EMT). A protocol was developed whereby transduction of these mesenchymal cells with adenoviruses containing Pdx1, Ngn3, MafA, and Pax4 generated a population of cells that were enriched in glucagon-secreting α-like cells. Transdifferentiation or reprogramming toward insulin-secreting β-cells was enhanced, however, when using unpassaged cells in combination with inhibition of EMT by inclusion of Rho-associated kinase (ROCK) and transforming growth factor-β1 inhibitors. Resultant cells were able to secrete insulin in response to glucose and on transplantation were able to normalize blood glucose levels in streptozotocin diabetic NOD/SCID mice. In conclusion, reprogramming of human exocrine-enriched tissue can be best achieved using fresh material under conditions whereby EMT is inhibited, rather than allowing the culture to expand as a mesenchymal monolayer.

Common genetic variants associated with disease from genome-wide association studies are mutually exclusive in prostate cancer and rheumatoid arthritis

WHAT'S KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT? AND WHAT DOES THE STUDY ADD?: The link between inflammation and cancer has long been reported and inflammation is thought to play a role in the pathogenesis of many cancers, including prostate cancer (PrCa). Over the last 5 years, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have reported numerous susceptibility loci that predispose individuals to many different traits. The present study aims to ascertain if there are common genetic risk profiles that might predispose individuals to both PrCa and the autoimmune inflammatory condition, rheumatoid arthritis. These results could have potential public heath impact in terms of screening and chemoprevention.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate if potential common pathways exist for the pathogenesis of autoimmune disease and prostate cancer (PrCa). To ascertain if the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) reported by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) as being associated with susceptibility to PrCa are also associated with susceptibility to the autoimmune disease rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The original Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC) UK RA GWAS study was expanded to include a total of 3221 cases and 5272 controls. In all, 37 germline autosomal SNPs at genome-wide significance associated with PrCa risk were identified from a UK/Australian PrCa GWAS. Allele frequencies were compared for these 37 SNPs between RA cases and controls using a chi-squared trend test and corrected for multiple testing (Bonferroni).

RESULTS

In all, 33 SNPs were able to be analysed in the RA dataset. Proxies could not be located for the SNPs in 3q26, 5p15 and for two SNPs in 17q12. After applying a Bonferroni correction for the number of SNPs tested, the SNP mapping to CCHCR1 (rs130067) retained statistically significant evidence for association (P = 6 × 10(-4) ; odds ratio [OR] = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.06-1.24); this has also been associated with psoriasis. However, further analyses showed that the association of this allele was due to confounding by RA-associated HLA-DRB1 alleles.

CONCLUSIONS

There is currently no evidence that SNPs associated with PrCa at genome-wide significance are associated with the development of RA. Studies like this are important in determining if common genetic risk profiles might predispose individuals to many diseases, which could have implications for public health in terms of screening and chemoprevention.

Gene-environment interaction between body mass index and transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGFβ1) gene in knee and hip osteoarthritis

Introduction

The objective was to investigate potential gene-environment interaction between body mass index (BMI) and each of eight TGFβ1 polymorphisms in knee and hip osteoarthritis (OA).

Methods

We conducted a case-control study of Caucasian men and women aged 45 to 86 years from Nottingham, United Kingdom (Genetics of OA and Lifestyle (GOAL) study). Cases had clinically severe symptoms and radiographic knee or hip OA; controls had no symptoms and no radiographic knee/hip OA. We used logistic regression to investigate the association of TGFβ1 polymorphisms and OA when stratifying by BMI. Knee and hip OA were analyzed separately with adjustment for potential confounders. Additive and multiplicative interactions were examined.

Results

2,048 cases (1,042 knee OA, 1,006 hip OA) and 967 controls were studied. For hip OA, the highest risk was in overweight (BMI ≥25 kg/m²) individuals with the variant allele of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs1800468 (odds ratio (OR) 2.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.55, 3.15). Evaluation of gene-environment interaction indicated significant synergetic interaction (relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) = 0.93, synergy index (SI) = 4.33) with an attributable proportion due to interaction (AP) of 42% (AP = 0.42; 95% CI 0.16, 0.68). Multiplicative interaction was also significant (OR for interaction (ORINT) = 2.27, P = 0.015). For knee OA, the highest risk was in overweight individuals with homozygous genotype 11 of SNP rs2278422 (OR = 6.95, P <0.001). In contrast, the variant allele indicated slightly lower risks (OR = 4.72, P <0.001), a significant antagonistic interaction (RERI = -2.66, SI = 0.59), AP = -0.56 (95%CI -0.94, -0.17) and a significant multiplicative interaction (ORINT = 0.47, P = 0.013).

Conclusion

TGFβ1 gene polymorphisms interact with being overweight to influence the risk of large joint OA.

Abstract 4836: Gene and environment interactions of height and selected candidate SNPs in prostate cancer: results from the PRACTICAL consortium

Abstract

We analysed data from the PRACTICAL (PRostate cancer AssoCiation group To Investigate Cancer Associated aLterations in the genome) consortium on height and over 160 selected candidate SNP's predominantly in growth factor pathways. 12 case-control and nested case-control studies provided epidemiological data including information on height (5064 cases and 3074 controls). We present results here on the associations of height and the selected SNPs on prostate cancer risk and on their interaction.

The mean height was 176.3 cm in cases and 176.9 cm in controls. Results of meta-analysis of the association between height and prostate cancer risk indicated study homogeneity and thus data were pooled to obtain pooled odds ratios (ORs). Mean and standard deviation (sd) was used to define subjects as normal (mean ±sd), short (&lt;mean- sd) and tall stature (&gt;mean+sd). Analyses were adjusted for age and family history of prostate cancer in first degree relatives. Height was not significantly associated with risk in shorter and taller men compared to men with a normal height: OR of 1.08 (95%CI 0.91-1.29) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.84-1.15), respectively.

For the genotyping results, a log additive model was used to assess the associations between the SNPs and prostate cancer risk and the results showed that 3 SNPs (rs1509461, OR 1.09 (95%CI 1.01-1.17) in the GHR gene, rs2946834 OR 1.13 (95%CI 1.04-1.22) and rs1520220 OR 1.10 (95%CI 1.00 -1.22) in the IGF-1 gene) were significantly associated with prostate cancer after adjusting for age and family history of prostate cancer, all P-values &lt;0.05.

For gene and environment interaction analyses, the synergy factor estimation and an empirical Bayes method were used. Only one SNPs showed a marginal negative interaction with height in tall statured men (rs1520220 in the IGF-1 gene) with a synergy factor of 0.76, 95% CI 0.59-0.99.

In summary, height did not show any significant association with prostate cancer risk. Three candidates SNP's showed modest increased risks. Overall there was little indication of an effect of height and/or its interaction with the candidate SNPs.

Citation Format: Kenneth R. Muir, Artitaya Lophatananon, Rosalind Eeles, Graham G. Giles, Zsofia Kote Jarai, Richard M. Martin, Jong Park, Gianluca Severi, Janet Standford, Fredrick Schumacher, Sarah Stewart Brown, Ruth Travis, Fredrik Wiklund, Douglas Easton, The PRACTICAL CONSORTIUM. Gene and environment interactions of height and selected candidate SNPs in prostate cancer: results from the PRACTICAL consortium. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 104th Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2013 Apr 6-10; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2013;73(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 4836. doi:10.1158/1538-7445.AM2013-4836

Note: This abstract was not presented at the AACR Annual Meeting 2013 because the presenter was unable to attend.

The genetic contribution to severe post-traumatic osteoarthritis

Objective

to compare the combined role of genetic variants loci associated with risk of knee or hip osteoarthritis (OA) in post-traumatic (PT) and non-traumatic (NT) cases of clinically severe OA leading to total joint replacement.

Methods

A total of 1590 controls, 2168 total knee replacement (TKR) cases (33.2% PT) and 1567 total hip replacement (THR) cases (8.7% PT) from 2 UK cohorts were genotyped for 12 variants previously reported to be reproducibly associated with risk of knee or hip OA. A genetic risk score was generated and the association with PT and NT TKR and THR was assessed adjusting for covariates.

Results

For THR, each additional genetic risk variant conferred lower risk among PT cases (OR=1.07, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.19; p=0.24) than NT cases (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.17; p=1.55×10⁻⁵). In contrast, for TKR, each risk variant conferred slightly higher risk among PT cases (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.19; p=1.82×10⁻⁵) than among NT cases (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.1; p=0.00063).

Conclusions

Based on the variants reported to date PT TKR cases have at least as high a genetic contribution as NT cases.

A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies to identify prostate cancer susceptibility loci associated with aggressive and non-aggressive disease

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple common genetic variants associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer (PrCa), but these explain less than one-third of the heritability. To identify further susceptibility alleles, we conducted a meta-analysis of four GWAS including 5953 cases of aggressive PrCa and 11 463 controls (men without PrCa). We computed association tests for approximately 2.6 million SNPs and followed up the most significant SNPs by genotyping 49 121 samples in 29 studies through the international PRACTICAL and BPC3 consortia. We not only confirmed the association of a PrCa susceptibility locus, rs11672691 on chromosome 19, but also showed an association with aggressive PrCa [odds ratio = 1.12 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.21), P = 1.4 × 10(-8)]. This report describes a genetic variant which is associated with aggressive PrCa, which is a type of PrCa associated with a poorer prognosis.

Genetic contribution to radiographic severity in osteoarthritis of the knee

OBJECTIVE

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) has a significant genetic component. The authors have assessed the role of three variants reported to influence risk of knee OA with p<5×10-8 in determining patellofemoral and tibiofemoral Kellgren Lawrence (K/L) grade in knee OA cases.

METHODS

3474 knee OA cases with sky-line and weight-bearing antero-posterior x-rays of the knee were selected based on the presentation of K/L grade ≥2 at either the tibiofemoral or patellofemoral compartments for one or both knees. Patients belonging to three UK cohorts, were genotyped for rs143383, rs4730250 and rs11842874 mapping to the GDF5, COG5 and MCF2L genes, respectively. The association between tibiofemoral K/L grade and patellofemoral K/L grade was assessed after adjusting for age, gender and body mass index.

RESULTS

No significant association was found between the rs4730250 and radiographic severity. The rs11842874 mapping to MCF2L was found to be nominally significantly associated with patellofemoral K/L grade as a quantitative trait (p=0.027) but not as a binary trait. The GDF5 single nucleotide polymorphism rs143383 was associated with tibiofemoral K/L grade (β=0.05 (95% CI 0.02 to 0.08) p=0.0011).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that within individuals affected by radiographic knee OA, OAGDF5 has a modest but significant effect on radiographic severity after adjustment for the major risk factors.

Comparison of 6q25 breast cancer hits from Asian and European Genome Wide Association Studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC)

The 6q25.1 locus was first identified via a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in Chinese women and marked by single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs2046210, approximately 180 Kb upstream of ESR1. There have been conflicting reports about the association of this locus with breast cancer in Europeans, and a GWAS in Europeans identified a different SNP, tagged here by rs12662670. We examined the associations of both SNPs in up to 61,689 cases and 58,822 controls from forty-four studies collaborating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, of which four studies were of Asian and 39 of European descent. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Case-only analyses were used to compare SNP effects in Estrogen Receptor positive (ER+) versus negative (ER-) tumours. Models including both SNPs were fitted to investigate whether the SNP effects were independent. Both SNPs are significantly associated with breast cancer risk in both ethnic groups. Per-allele ORs are higher in Asian than in European studies [rs2046210: OR (A/G) = 1.36 (95% CI 1.26-1.48), p = 7.6 × 10(-14) in Asians and 1.09 (95% CI 1.07-1.11), p = 6.8 × 10(-18) in Europeans. rs12662670: OR (G/T) = 1.29 (95% CI 1.19-1.41), p = 1.2 × 10(-9) in Asians and 1.12 (95% CI 1.08-1.17), p = 3.8 × 10(-9) in Europeans]. SNP rs2046210 is associated with a significantly greater risk of ER- than ER+ tumours in Europeans [OR (ER-) = 1.20 (95% CI 1.15-1.25), p = 1.8 × 10(-17) versus OR (ER+) = 1.07 (95% CI 1.04-1.1), p = 1.3 × 10(-7), p(heterogeneity) = 5.1 × 10(-6)]. In these Asian studies, by contrast, there is no clear evidence of a differential association by tumour receptor status. Each SNP is associated with risk after adjustment for the other SNP. These results suggest the presence of two variants at 6q25.1 each independently associated with breast cancer risk in Asians and in Europeans. Of these two, the one tagged by rs2046210 is associated with a greater risk of ER- tumours.

9q31.2-rs865686 as a susceptibility locus for estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: evidence from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium

BACKGROUND

Our recent genome-wide association study identified a novel breast cancer susceptibility locus at 9q31.2 (rs865686).

METHODS

To further investigate the rs865686-breast cancer association, we conducted a replication study within the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, which comprises 37 case-control studies (48,394 cases, 50,836 controls).

RESULTS

This replication study provides additional strong evidence of an inverse association between rs865686 and breast cancer risk [study-adjusted per G-allele OR, 0.90; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.88; 0.91, P = 2.01 × 10(-29)] among women of European ancestry. There were ethnic differences in the estimated minor (G)-allele frequency among controls [0.09, 0.30, and 0.38 among, respectively, Asians, Eastern Europeans, and other Europeans; P for heterogeneity (P(het)) = 1.3 × 10(-143)], but no evidence of ethnic differences in per allele OR (P(het) = 0.43). rs865686 was associated with estrogen receptor-positive (ER(+)) disease (per G-allele OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.86-0.91; P = 3.13 × 10(-22)) but less strongly, if at all, with ER-negative (ER(-)) disease (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.94-1.02; P = 0.26; P(het) = 1.16 × 10(-6)), with no evidence of independent heterogeneity by progesterone receptor or HER2 status. The strength of the breast cancer association decreased with increasing age at diagnosis, with case-only analysis showing a trend in the number of copies of the G allele with increasing age at diagnosis (P for linear trend = 0.0095), but only among women with ER(+) tumors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to show that rs865686 is a susceptibility marker for ER(+) breast cancer.

IMPACT

The findings further support the view that genetic susceptibility varies according to tumor subtype.

11q13 is a susceptibility locus for hormone receptor positive breast cancer

A recent two-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) identified five novel breast cancer susceptibility loci on chromosomes 9, 10, and 11. To provide more reliable estimates of the relative risk associated with these loci and investigate possible heterogeneity by subtype of breast cancer, we genotyped the variants rs2380205, rs1011970, rs704010, rs614367, and rs10995190 in 39 studies from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC), involving 49,608 cases and 48,772 controls of predominantly European ancestry. Four of the variants showed clear evidence of association (P ≤ 3 × 10(-9) ) and weak evidence was observed for rs2380205 (P = 0.06). The strongest evidence was obtained for rs614367, located on 11q13 (per-allele odds ratio 1.21, P = 4 × 10(-39) ). The association for rs614367 was specific to estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease and strongest for ER plus progesterone receptor (PR)-positive breast cancer, whereas the associations for the other three loci did not differ by tumor subtype.

Abstract 642: Body fat distribution and prostate cancer risk: A UK case-control study

Background: Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among males in the UK and in 2007 accounted for almost a quarter of all male cancers diagnosed. Previous studies have shown some associations between body size/obesity and prostate cancer risk. However body fat distribution in terms of perceived “body shape” and its association with prostate cancer risk has never been described. Methods: In the UK data from 1343 cases and 817 controls with age ranged between 38 and 85, with mean age 62.4 (SD 6.2) were collected between 2007 -2009 as part of the UKGPCS Prostate Cancer Study. The data on subjects’ body fat distribution type including “apple” (body fat mostly around the waist and upper trunk), “pear” (body fat around hips), “oval” (body fat generalised on whole body) and “symmetrical” were obtained through self report diagrams in questionnaires after consent from the subjects. Unconditional logistic regression analysis, with adjustment for age, education, ethnic, family history and lifetime body shape size as potential confounders, were carried out to obtain odds ratios and confidence intervals for different types of body fat distribution to assess their possible association with risk of prostate cancer. Results: A “symmetrical” body shape was used as the reference category. Subjects with an “apple” shape were at a significantly 30% reduced risk (adjusted OR 0.70 with 95% CI: 0.55-0.89). Subjects with an “oval” or “pear” shapes did not show any statistically significant association. Conclusion: An “apple” body fat distribution was associated with reduced prostate cancer risk when compared to symmetrical shape.

Citation Format: {Authors}. {Abstract title} [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 103rd Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2012 Mar 31-Apr 4; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2012;72(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 642. doi:1538-7445.AM2012-642

A role for PACE4 in osteoarthritis pain: evidence from human genetic association and null mutant phenotype

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess if genetic variation in the PACE4 (paired amino acid converting enzyme 4) gene Pcsk6 influences the risk for symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA).

METHODS

Ten PCSK6 single nucleotide polymorphisms were tested for association in a discovery cohort of radiographic knee OA (n=156 asymptomatic and 600 symptomatic cases). Meta-analysis of the minor allele at rs900414 was performed in three additional independent cohorts (total n=674 asymptomatic and 2068 symptomatic). Pcsk6 knockout mice and wild-type C57BL/6 mice were compared in a battery of algesiometric assays, including hypersensitivity in response to intraplantar substance P, pain behaviours in response to intrathecal substance P and pain behaviour in the abdominal constriction test.

RESULTS

In the discovery cohort of radiographic knee OA, an intronic single nucleotide polymorphism at rs900414 was significantly associated with symptomatic OA. Replication in three additional cohorts confirmed that the minor allele at rs900414 was consistently increased among asymptomatic compared to symptomatic radiographic knee OA cases in all four cohorts. A fixed-effects meta-analysis yielded an OR=1.35 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.56; p=4.3×10(-5) and no significant between-study heterogeneity). Studies in mice revealed that Pcsk6 knockout mice were significantly protected against pain in a battery of algesiometric assays.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that a variant in PCSK6 is strongly associated with protection against pain in knee OA, offering some insight as to why, in the presence of the same structural damage, some individuals develop chronic pain and others are protected. Studies in Pcsk6 null mutant mice further implicate PACE4 in pain.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies three new breast cancer susceptibility loci

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women. To date, 22 common breast cancer susceptibility loci have been identified accounting for ∼8% of the heritability of the disease. We attempted to replicate 72 promising associations from two independent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in ∼70,000 cases and ∼68,000 controls from 41 case-control studies and 9 breast cancer GWAS. We identified three new breast cancer risk loci at 12p11 (rs10771399; P = 2.7 × 10(-35)), 12q24 (rs1292011; P = 4.3 × 10(-19)) and 21q21 (rs2823093; P = 1.1 × 10(-12)). rs10771399 was associated with similar relative risks for both estrogen receptor (ER)-negative and ER-positive breast cancer, whereas the other two loci were associated only with ER-positive disease. Two of the loci lie in regions that contain strong plausible candidate genes: PTHLH (12p11) has a crucial role in mammary gland development and the establishment of bone metastasis in breast cancer, and NRIP1 (21q21) encodes an ER cofactor and has a role in the regulation of breast cancer cell growth.

Large scale replication study of the association between HLA class II/BTNL2 variants and osteoarthritis of the knee in European-descent populations

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common form of arthritis and a major cause of disability. This study evaluates the association in Caucasian populations of two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) mapping to the Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) region and deriving from a genome wide association scan (GWAS) of knee OA in Japanese populations. The frequencies for rs10947262 were compared in 36,408 controls and 5,749 knee OA cases from European-descent populations. rs7775228 was tested in 32,823 controls and 1,837 knee OA cases of European descent. The risk (major) allele at rs10947262 in Caucasian samples was not significantly associated with an odds ratio (OR)  = 1.07 (95%CI 0.94 -1.21; p = 0.28). For rs7775228 the meta-analysis resulted in OR = 0.94 (95%CI 0.81-1.09; p = 0.42) for the allele associated with risk in the Japanese GWAS. In Japanese individuals these two SNPs are in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) (r(2) = 0.86) with the HLA class II haplotype DRB1*1502 DQA1*0103 DQB1*0601 (frequency 8%). In Caucasian and Chinese samples, using imputed data, these SNPs appear not to be in LD with that haplotype (r(2)<0.07). The rs10947262 and rs7775228 variants are not associated with risk of knee OA in European descent populations and they do not appear tag the same HLA class II haplotype as they do in Japanese individuals.

Incident knee pain in the Nottingham community: a 12-year retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the community incidence of knee pain and associated risk factors over a 12-year period in people over the age of 40 years.

METHOD

A cohort study of knee pain was undertaken in 2156 people from four general practices in North Nottinghamshire, UK. Knee pain was defined as 'pain around the knee for most days of at least a month'. Cumulative incidence over 12 years and person-year incidence rate of knee pain were estimated. Survival analysis was undertaken for time to the onset of knee pain. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated for relative risk between exposure and non-exposure. Cox regression model was used to adjust for confounding factors.

RESULTS

The 12-year cumulative incidence of knee pain was 34.4% (32% for men and 35% for women), corresponding to an average incidence rate of 32 (31 for men and 34 for women)/1000 person-years. Incident knee pain was associated with female gender (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.08, 1.49), obesity (1.80; 95% CI 1.37, 2.38), varus (1.68, 95% CI 1.15, 2.47) and valgus (1.83, 95% CI 1.05, 3.20) mal-alignment, and knee injury (2.37, 95% CI 2.98, 2.85).

CONCLUSIONS

For people over age 40, one in three will develop knee pain within 12 years. On average, the risk of knee pain was 32/1000 person-years. This risk is associated with a variety of constitutional and environmental biomechanical insults to the knee. Some of these could be modified to possibly reduce the incidence of the condition.