Azithromycin therapy for prevention of chronic lung disease of prematurity (AZTEC): a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Systematic reviews have reported conflicting evidence on whether macrolide antibiotics reduce rates of chronic lung disease of prematurity (CLD) in at-risk preterm infants born at less than 30 weeks' gestation, including in those colonised with pulmonary Ureaplasma spp. Since an adequately powered trial has been lacking, we aimed to assess if the macrolide azithromycin improved survival without the development of physiologically defined moderate or severe CLD in preterm infants.

METHODS

AZTEC was a multicentre, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial conducted in 28 tertiary neonatal intensive care units in the UK. Infants were eligible if they were born at less than 30 weeks' gestation and had received at least 2 h of either non-invasive (continuous positive airway pressure or humidified high flow nasal cannula therapy) or invasive respiratory support (via endotracheal tube) within 72 h of birth. Eligible infants were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio using random permuted blocks of four to receive either intravenous azithromycin at 20 mg/kg per day for 3 days followed by 10 mg/kg for 7 days, or to placebo. Allocation was stratified by centre and gestational age at birth (<28 weeks vs ≥28 weeks). Azithromycin and placebo vials were encased in tamper-evident custom cardboard cartons to ensure masking for clinicians, parents, and the research team. The primary outcome was survival without development of physiologically defined moderate or severe CLD at 36 weeks' postmenstrual age. Outcomes and safety were analysed on an intention-to-treat basis (all randomly allocated infants, regardless of any post-randomisation events). The study was registered with ISRCRN (11650227) and is closed.

FINDINGS

Infants were recruited between Oct 9, 2019, and March 22, 2022. 799 (53·1%) of 1505 eligible infants underwent random allocation; three infants were withdrawn, including consent to use their data, leaving 796 infants for analysis. Survival without moderate or severe CLD occurred in 166 (42%) of 394 infants in the intervention group and 179 (45%) of 402 in the placebo group (three-level adjusted OR [aOR] 0·84, 95% CI 0·55-1·29, p=0·43). Pulmonary Ureaplasma spp colonisation did not influence treatment effect. Overall, seven serious adverse events were reported for the azithromycin group (five graded as severe, two as moderate), and six serious adverse events were reported in the placebo group (two severe, two moderate, and two mild), as assessed by the local principal investigators.

INTERPRETATION

Since prophylactic use of azithromycin did not improve survival without development of physiologically-defined CLD, regardless of Ureaplasma spp colonisation, it cannot be recommended in clinical practice.

FUNDING

UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Feasibility of daily pain measurement using text messages in hidradenitis suppurativa clinical trials; data from the THESEUS study

Treatment of Hidradenitis Suppurativa Evaluation Study (THESEUS) was an observational study involving 10 centres in the UK and one of its objectives was to optimize the outcome measure instruments for use in future hidradenitis suppurativa trials. Part of the study included sending daily text messages to patients for 12 weeks once the intervention had been started. Our study showed that the response rates to the text messages were 70%, 60%, 55% and 20% after 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks, respectively.

Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN30448031.

Treatment of Hidradenitis Suppurativa Evaluation Study (THESEUS): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is a chronic, painful disease affecting flexures and other skin regions, producing nodules, abscesses and skin tunnels. Laser treatment targeting hair follicles and deroofing of skin tunnels are standard HS interventions in some countries but are rarely offered in the UK.

OBJECTIVES

To describe current UK HS management pathways and influencing factors to inform the design of future randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

METHODS

THESEUS was a nonrandomized 12-month prospective cohort study set in 10 UK hospitals offering five interventions: oral doxycycline 200 mg daily; oral clindamycin and rifampicin both 300 mg twice daily for 10 weeks, extended for longer in some cases; laser treatment targeting hair follicles; deroofing; and conventional surgery. The primary outcome was the combination of clinician-assessed eligibility and participant hypothetical willingness to receive each intervention. The secondary outcomes were the proportion of participants selecting each intervention as their final treatment option; the proportion who switch treatments; treatment fidelity; and attrition rates. THESEUS was prospectively registered on the ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN69985145.

RESULTS

The recruitment target of 150 participants was met after 18 months, in July 2021, with two pauses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Baseline demographics reflected the HS secondary care population: average age 36 years, 81% female, 20% non-White, 64% current or ex-smokers, 86% body mass index ≥ 25, 68% with moderate disease, 19% with severe disease and 13% with mild disease. Laser was the intervention with the highest proportion (69%) of participants eligible and willing to receive treatment, then deroofing (58%), conventional surgery (54%), clindamycin and rifampicin (44%), and doxycycline (37%). Laser was ranked first choice by the greatest proportion of participants (41%). Attrition rates were 11% and 17% after 3 and 6 months, respectively. Concordance with doxycycline was 52% after 3 months due to lack of efficacy, participant choice and adverse effects. Delays with procedural interventions were common, with only 43% and 26% of participants starting laser and deroofing, respectively, after 3 months. Uptake of conventional surgery was too small to characterize the intervention. Switching treatment was uncommon and there were no serious adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

THESEUS has established laser treatment and deroofing for HS in the UK and demonstrated their popularity with patients and clinicians for future RCTs.

Cost-utility analysis of molnupiravir plus usual care versus usual care alone as early treatment for community-based adults with COVID-19 and increased risk of adverse outcomes in the UK PANORAMIC trial

BACKGROUND

The cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral for early treatment of SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated populations.

AIM

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir relative to usual care alone among mainly vaccinated community-based people at higher risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 over six months.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Economic evaluation of the PANORAMIC trial in the UK.

METHOD

A cost-utility analysis that adopted a UK National Health Service and personal social services perspective and a six-month time horizon was performed using PANORAMIC trial data. Cost-effectiveness was expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses assessed the impacts of uncertainty and heterogeneity. Threshold analysis explored the price for molnupiravir consistent with likely reimbursement.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, molnupiravir had higher mean costs of £449 (95% confidence interval [CI] 445 to 453) and higher mean QALYs of 0.0055 (95% CI 0.004 to 0.007) than usual care (mean incremental cost per QALY of £81190). Sensitivity and subgroup analyses showed similar results, except those aged ≥75 years with a 55% probability of being cost-effective at a £30000 per QALY threshold. Molnupiravir would have to be priced around £147 per course to be cost-effective at a £15000 per QALY threshold.

CONCLUSION

Molnupiravir at the current cost of £513 per course is unlikely to be cost-effective relative to usual care over a six-month time horizon among mainly vaccinated COVID-19 patients at increased risk of adverse outcomes, except those aged ≥75 years.

Treatment of Hidradenitis Suppurativa Evaluation Study: the THESEUS prospective cohort study

Background

Hidradenitis suppurativa is a chronic inflammatory skin disease characterised by recurrent inflammatory lesions and skin tunnels in flexural sites such as the axilla. Deroofing of skin tunnels and laser treatment are standard hidradenitis suppurativa interventions in some countries but not yet introduced in the United Kingdom.

Objective

To understand current hidradenitis suppurativa management pathways and what influences treatment choices to inform the design of future randomised controlled trials.

Design

Prospective 12-month observational cohort study, including five treatment options, with nested qualitative interviews and an end-of-study consensus workshop.

Setting

Ten United Kingdom hospitals with recruitment led by dermatology and plastic surgery departments.

Participants

Adults with active hidradenitis suppurativa of any severity not adequately controlled by current treatment.

Interventions

Oral doxycycline 200 mg once daily; oral clindamycin and rifampicin, both 300 mg twice daily for 10 weeks initially; laser treatment targeting the hair follicle (neodymium-doped yttrium aluminium garnet or alexandrite); deroofing; and conventional surgery.

Main outcome measures

Primary outcome was the proportion of participants who are eligible, and hypothetically willing, to use the different treatment options. Secondary outcomes included proportion of participants choosing each of the study interventions, with reasons for their choices; proportion of participants who switched treatments; treatment fidelity; loss to follow-up rates over 12 months; and efficacy outcome estimates to inform outcome measure instrument responsiveness.

Results

Between February 2020 and July 2021, 151 participants were recruited, with two pauses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Follow-up rates were 89% and 83% after 3 and 6 months, decreasing to 70% and 44% at 9 and 12 months, respectively, because pandemic recruitment delays prevented all participants reaching their final review. Baseline demographics included an average age of 36 years, 81% female, 20% black, Asian or Caribbean, 64% current or ex-smokers and 86% with a raised body mass index. Some 69% had moderate disease, 19% severe disease and 13% mild disease. Regarding the study's primary outcome, laser treatment was the intervention with the highest proportion (69%) of participants who were eligible and hypothetically willing to receive treatment, followed by deroofing (58%), conventional surgery (54%), the combination of oral clindamycin and rifampicin (44%) and doxycycline (37%). Considering participant willingness in isolation, laser was ranked first choice by the greatest proportion (41%) of participants. The cohort study and qualitative study demonstrated that participant willingness to receive treatment was strongly influenced by their clinician. Fidelity to oral doxycycline was only 52% after 3 months due to lack of effectiveness, participant preference and adverse effects. Delays receiving procedural interventions were common, with only 43% and 26% of participants commencing laser therapy and deroofing, respectively, after 3 months. Treatment switching was uncommon and there were no serious adverse events. Daily pain score text messages were initiated in 110 participants. Daily responses reduced over time with greatest concordance during the first 14 days.

Limitations

It was not possible to characterise conventional surgery due to a low number of participants.

Conclusion

The Treatment of Hidradenitis Suppurativa Evaluation Study established deroofing and laser treatment for hidradenitis suppurativa in the United Kingdom and developed a network of 10 sites for subsequent hidradenitis suppurativa randomised controlled trials.

Future work

The consensus workshop prioritised laser treatment and deroofing as interventions for future randomised controlled trials, in some cases combined with drug treatment.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN69985145.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 12/35/64) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 30. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Predicting illness progression for children with lower respiratory infections in primary care: a prospective cohort and observational study

BACKGROUND

Antibiotics are commonly prescribed for children with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), fuelling antibiotic resistance, and there are few prognostic tools available to inform management.

AIM

To externally validate an existing prognostic model (STARWAVe) to identify children at low risk of illness progression, and if model performance was limited to develop a new internally validated prognostic model.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Prospective cohort study with a nested trial in a primary care setting.

METHOD

Children aged 6 months to 12 years presenting with uncomplicated LRTI were included in the cohort. Children were randomised to receive amoxicillin 50 mg/kg per day for 7 days or placebo, or if not randomised they participated in a parallel observational study to maximise generalisability. Baseline clinical data were used to predict adverse outcome (illness progression requiring hospital assessment).

RESULTS

A total of 758 children participated (n = 432 trial, n = 326 observational). For predicting illness progression the STARWAVe prognostic model had moderate performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.50 to 0.77), but a new, internally validated model (seven items: baseline severity; respiratory rate; duration of prior illness; oxygen saturation; sputum or a rattly chest; passing urine less often; and diarrhoea) had good discrimination (bootstrapped AUROC 0.83, 95% CI = 0.74 to 0.92) and calibration. A three-item model (respiratory rate; oxygen saturation; and sputum or a rattly chest) also performed well (AUROC 0.81, 95% CI = 0.70 to 0.91), as did a score (ranging from 19 to 102) derived from coefficients of the model (AUROC 0.78, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.88): a score of <70 classified 89% (n = 600/674) of children having a low risk (<5%) of progression of illness.

CONCLUSION

A simple three-item prognostic score could be useful as a tool to identify children with LRTI who are at low risk of an adverse outcome and to guide clinical management.

Using microbiological data to improve the use of antibiotics for respiratory tract infections: A protocol for an individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Resistance to antibiotics is rising and threatens future antibiotic effectiveness. 'Antibiotic targeting' ensures patients who may benefit from antibiotics receive them, while being safely withheld from those who may not. Point-of-care tests may assist with antibiotic targeting by allowing primary care clinicians to establish if symptomatic patients have a viral, bacterial, combined, or no infection. However, because organisms can be harmlessly carried, it is important to know if the presence of the virus/bacteria is related to the illness for which the patient is being assessed. One way to do this is to look for associations with more severe/prolonged symptoms and test results. Previous research to answer this question for acute respiratory tract infections has given conflicting results with studies has not having enough participants to provide statistical confidence.

AIM

To undertake a synthesis of IPD from both randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational cohort studies of respiratory tract infections (RTI) in order to investigate the prognostic value of microbiological data in addition to, or instead of, clinical symptoms and signs.

METHODS

A systematic search of Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Ovid Medline and Ovid Embase will be carried out for studies of acute respiratory infection in primary care settings. The outcomes of interest are duration of disease, severity of disease, repeated consultation with new/worsening illness and complications requiring hospitalisation. Authors of eligible studies will be contacted to provide anonymised individual participant data. The data will be harmonised and aggregated. Multilevel regression analysis will be conducted to determine key outcome measures for different potential pathogens and whether these offer any additional information on prognosis beyond clinical symptoms and signs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO Registration number: CRD42023376769.

e-Consent in UK academic-led clinical trials: current practice, challenges and the need for more evidence

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, in-person healthcare visits were reduced. Consequently, trial teams needed to consider implementing remote methods for conducting clinical trials, including e-Consent. Although some clinical trials may have implemented e-Consent prior to the pandemic, anecdotes of uptake for this method increased within academic-led trials. When the increased use of this process emerged, representatives from several large academic clinical trial groups within the UK collaborated to discuss ways in which trialists can learn from one another when implementing e-Consent.

METHODS

A survey of UKCRC-registered Clinical Trials Units (CTUs) was undertaken in April-June 2021 to understand the implementation of and their views on the use of e-Consent and experiences from the perspectives of systems programmers and quality assurance staff on the use of e-Consent. CTUs not using e-Consent were asked to provide any reasons/barriers (including no suitable trials) and any plans for implementing it in the future. Two events for trialists and patient and public involvement (PPI) representatives were then held to disseminate findings, foster discussion, share experiences and aid in the identification of areas that the academic CTU community felt required more research.

RESULTS

Thirty-four (64%) of 53 CTUs responded to the survey, with good geographical representation across the UK. Twenty-one (62%) of the responding CTUs had implemented e-Consent in at least one of their trials, across different types of trials, including CTIMPs (Clinical Trial of Investigational Medicinal Product), ATIMPs (Advanced Therapy Medicinal Products) and non-CTIMPs. One hundred ninety-seven participants attended the two workshops for wide-ranging discussions.

CONCLUSION

e-Consent is increasingly used in academic-led trials, yet uncertainties remain amongst trialists, patients and members of the public. Uncertainties include a lack of formal, practical guidance and a lack of evidence to demonstrate optimal or appropriate methods to use. We strongly encourage trialists to continue to share their own experiences of the implementation of e-Consent.

Planning ahead for research participation: survey of public and professional stakeholders' views about the acceptability and feasibility of advance research planning

BACKGROUND

Anticipatory planning in the UK focuses on supporting people who anticipate periods of impaired capacity to express their wishes about future care through processes such as advance care planning. Other countries have extended anticipatory planning to include processes for people to prospectively express their preferences about research participation. Advance research planning (ARP) is thought to extend autonomy and ensure that 'proxy' decisions about research are based on their wishes and preferences.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted with two stakeholder groups (members of the public including people living with capacity-affecting conditions and family members; researchers and other professionals) who were recruited via research registries and other routes. Online questionnaires were used to capture the perspectives of the two groups. Responses were analysed using descriptive statistics and content analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 327 participants (members of the public n = 277, professionals n = 50) completed the survey (November 2022 - March 2023). ARP was supported by 97% of public contributors and 94% of professionals. Participants thought that ARP should include the person's general wishes about research, specific types of studies, and who should make decisions on their behalf. They identified a number of challenges, including how ARP could take account of changes in individuals' preferences or circumstances whilst protecting their rights and interests. Implementation barriers included the potential time, complexity, and cost involved. These could be addressed by embedding ARP in existing anticipatory planning pathways and aligning it with other research enrolment activities. Relationships and trust played a key role, including underpinning who should support the delivery of ARP, how they are trained, and when it is undertaken.

CONCLUSIONS

There were high levels of support for introducing ARP in the UK. Further research should explore practical barriers and stakeholder concerns and identify any unintended consequences. Future activities should include developing ARP interventions alongside training and other resources, and also focus on public awareness campaigns, and engaging policymakers and other stakeholders.

Gut microbiology of UK care home residents: a cross-sectional analysis from a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To describe the prevalence of potentially clinically relevant gut pathogens and associations with the carriage of resistant organisms in UK care home residents.

METHODS

Stool samples were collected pre-randomisation from care home residents participating in a randomised placebo-controlled trial. Cultivable clinically relevant bacteria were analysed. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by agar dilution (amoxicillin, co-amoxiclav, gentamicin, trimethoprim, nitrofurantoin, and ciprofloxacin). We also aimed to detect resistance to third-generation cephalosporins, carbapenems, and vancomycin.

RESULTS

Stool samples were available for 159/310 residents participating in the trial (51%) from 23 care homes between 2016 and 2018. In total, 402 bacterial isolates were cultured from 158 stool samples and 29 different species were cultured. The five most common species were Escherichia coli (155/158, 98%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (40/158, 25%), Enterococcus faecalis (35/158, 22%), Enterococcus faecium (30/158, 19%), and Proteus mirabilis (25/158, 16%). Enterobacterales isolates were cultured from 157 samples (99%), and resistance to at least one of the tested antimicrobials was found in 119 of these (76%). There were high levels of variation in outcomes by care home.

DISCUSSION

We demonstrated that care home residents harbour significant levels of antimicrobial-resistant organisms in their stool. This work emphasises the importance of both enhanced infection control practices and antimicrobial stewardship programmes to support the appropriate use of antimicrobials in this setting.

Platform adaptive trial of novel antivirals for early treatment of COVID-19 In the community (PANORAMIC): protocol for a randomised, controlled, open-label, adaptive platform trial of community novel antiviral treatment of COVID-19 in people at increased risk of more severe disease

INTRODUCTION

There is an urgent need to determine the safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

PANORAMIC is a UK-wide, open-label, prospective, adaptive, multiarm platform, randomised clinical trial that evaluates antiviral treatments for COVID-19 in the community. A master protocol governs the addition of new antiviral treatments as they become available, and the introduction and cessation of existing interventions via interim analyses. The first two interventions to be evaluated are molnupiravir (Lagevrio) and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid).

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

community-dwelling within 5 days of onset of symptomatic COVID-19 (confirmed by PCR or lateral flow test), and either (1) aged 50 years and over, or (2) aged 18-49 years with qualifying comorbidities. Registration occurs via the trial website and by telephone. Recruitment occurs remotely through the central trial team, or in person through clinical sites. Participants are randomised to receive either usual care or a trial drug plus usual care. Outcomes are collected via a participant-completed daily electronic symptom diary for 28 days post randomisation. Participants and/or their Trial Partner are contacted by the research team after days 7, 14 and 28 if the diary is not completed, or if the participant is unable to access the diary. The primary efficacy endpoint is all-cause, non-elective hospitalisation and/or death within 28 days of randomisation. Multiple prespecified interim analyses allow interventions to be stopped for futility or superiority based on prespecified decision criteria. A prospective economic evaluation is embedded within the trial.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval granted by South Central-Berkshire REC number: 21/SC/0393; IRAS project ID: 1004274. Results will be presented to policymakers and at conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN30448031; EudraCT number: 2021-005748-31.

Identifying barriers and facilitators to the inclusion of older adults living in UK care homes in research: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

With an ageing population, older adults will have more complex health and social care needs and many of these older adults will be living in care homes. Despite the growth in care home populations, care home residents are often excluded from research that could potentially benefit their care. The purpose of this scoping review is to explore resident-related barriers and facilitators to including older people living in UK care homes in research and to identify potential approaches to modify such barriers.

METHOD

The 6-stage scoping review methodology framework proposed by Arksey and O'Malley guided this review. Five electronic databases (MedLine, PsychINFO, Scopus, Web of Science, CINAHL) and grey literature were searched. Identified articles went through two levels of screening, and those deemed relevant were collated, summarised and reported using a thematic analysis approach.

RESULTS

90 reports were eligible for inclusion and were synthesised into 7 themes and related subthemes: (1) research design; (2) understanding and beliefs about research (resident and care home staff); (3) communication; (4) relationships; (5) eligibility criteria (resident and care home); (6) preference-based decisions; and (7) care home staff and environment. Given the complex interplay of the factors identified, both direct and indirect factors were included.

CONCLUSIONS

A number of recurring barriers and facilitators to the inclusion of care home residents in research are reported. However, isolating resident-related barriers was complex as both direct and indirect factors must be considered as influential. Understanding the barriers and facilitators to inclusion will enable these factors to be addressed and increase the evidence-base for care provided to older people living in care homes.

Gaining an Understanding of Pneumocystosis in Wales

Pneumocystis pneumonia (PcP) is a serious complication of many significant immunocompromising conditions. Prior incidence estimates in Wales are based on PcP's presentation in the HIV and transplant populations. The objectives were to describe the incidence of PcP in Wales using laboratory reporting measures and assess the impact of underlying immunosuppression cause on mortality. All positive PCR results for PcP between 2015 and 2018 were identified. The total number of unique positives with clinical and radiological correlation was 159 patients, a mean of 39.75 annually. The healthcare records of these patients were reviewed. The mortality at one month was 35.2% and 49.1% at one year. HIV remains the commonest cause of immunosuppression but has lower mortality than non-HIV conditions (12% vs. 59% at one year, p < 0.00001). Non-HIV conditions were categorised as life-threatening and non-life threatening but had a non-significant mortality (66% vs. 54%; p = 0.149), highlighting the negative impact of PcP. An incidence of PcP in Wales of 1.23-1.26 cases per 100,000 has been identified, 32-35% greater than the upper limit previously estimated. There is high mortality in non-HIV patients regardless of immunosuppression cause. A heightened awareness of PcP in these groups will hasten diagnosis and potentially improve mortality.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on domiciliary care workers in Wales, UK: a data linkage cohort study using the SAIL Databank

OBJECTIVES

To quantify population health risks for domiciliary care workers (DCWs) in Wales, UK, working during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

A population-level retrospective study linking occupational registration data to anonymised electronic health records maintained by the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in a privacy-protecting trusted research environment.

SETTING

Registered DCW population in Wales.

PARTICIPANTS

Records for all linked DCWs from 1 March 2020 to 30 November 2021.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Our primary outcome was confirmed COVID-19 infection; secondary outcomes included contacts for suspected COVID-19, mental health including self-harm, fit notes, respiratory infections not necessarily recorded as COVID-19, deaths involving COVID-19 and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Confirmed and suspected COVID-19 infection rates increased over the study period to 24% by 30 November 2021. Confirmed COVID-19 varied by sex (males: 19% vs females: 24%) and age (>55 years: 19% vs <35 years: 26%) and were higher for care workers employed by local authority social services departments compared with the private sector (27% and 23%, respectively). 34% of DCWs required support for a mental health condition, with mental health-related prescribing increasing in frequency when compared with the prepandemic period. Events for self-harm increased from 0.2% to 0.4% over the study period as did the issuing of fit notes. There was no evidence to suggest a miscoding of COVID-19 infection with non-COVID-19 respiratory conditions. COVID-19-related and all-cause mortality were no greater than for the general population aged 15-64 years in Wales (0.1% and 0.034%, respectively). A comparable DCW workforce in Scotland and England would result in a comparable rate of COVID-19 infection, while the younger workforce in Northern Ireland may result in a greater infection rate.

CONCLUSIONS

While initial concerns about excess mortality are alleviated, the substantial pre-existing and increased mental health burden for DCWs will require investment to provide long-term support to the sector's workforce.

Antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infection in children presenting in primary care: ARTIC-PC RCT

Background

Antimicrobial resistance is a global health threat. Antibiotics are commonly prescribed for children with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections, but there is little randomised evidence to support the effectiveness of antibiotics in treating these infections, either overall or relating to key clinical subgroups in which antibiotic prescribing is common (chest signs; fever; physician rating of unwell; sputum/rattly chest; shortness of breath).

Objectives

To estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of amoxicillin for uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections in children both overall and in clinical subgroups.

Design

Placebo-controlled trial with qualitative, observational and cost-effectiveness studies.

Setting

UK general practices.

Participants

Children aged 1-12 years with acute uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections.

Outcomes

The primary outcome was the duration in days of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse (measured using a validated diary). Secondary outcomes were symptom severity on days 2-4 (0 = no problem to 6 = as bad as it could be); symptom duration until very little/no problem; reconsultations for new or worsening symptoms; complications; side effects; and resource use.

Methods

Children were randomised to receive 50 mg/kg/day of oral amoxicillin in divided doses for 7 days, or placebo using pre-prepared packs, using computer-generated random numbers by an independent statistician. Children who were not randomised could participate in a parallel observational study. Semistructured telephone interviews explored the views of 16 parents and 14 clinicians, and the data were analysed using thematic analysis. Throat swabs were analysed using multiplex polymerase chain reaction.

Results

A total of 432 children were randomised (antibiotics, n = 221; placebo, n = 211). The primary analysis imputed missing data for 115 children. The duration of moderately bad symptoms was similar in the antibiotic and placebo groups overall (median of 5 and 6 days, respectively; hazard ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.42), with similar results for subgroups, and when including antibiotic prescription data from the 326 children in the observational study. Reconsultations for new or worsening symptoms (29.7% and 38.2%, respectively; risk ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.58 to 1.05), illness progression requiring hospital assessment or admission (2.4% vs. 2.0%) and side effects (38% vs. 34%) were similar in the two groups. Complete-case (n = 317) and per-protocol (n = 185) analyses were similar, and the presence of bacteria did not mediate antibiotic effectiveness. NHS costs per child were slightly higher (antibiotics, £29; placebo, £26), with no difference in non-NHS costs (antibiotics, £33; placebo, £33). A model predicting complications (with seven variables: baseline severity, difference in respiratory rate from normal for age, duration of prior illness, oxygen saturation, sputum/rattly chest, passing urine less often, and diarrhoea) had good discrimination (bootstrapped area under the receiver operator curve 0.83) and calibration. Parents found it difficult to interpret symptoms and signs, used the sounds of the child's cough to judge the severity of illness, and commonly consulted to receive a clinical examination and reassurance. Parents acknowledged that antibiotics should be used only when 'necessary', and clinicians noted a reduction in parents' expectations for antibiotics.

Limitations

The study was underpowered to detect small benefits in key subgroups.

Conclusion

Amoxicillin for uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infections in children is unlikely to be clinically effective or to reduce health or societal costs. Parents need better access to information, as well as clear communication about the self-management of their child's illness and safety-netting.

Future work

The data can be incorporated in the Cochrane review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN79914298.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 9. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Biomarker-guided duration of antibiotic treatment in children hospitalised with confirmed or suspected bacterial infection: statistical analysis plan for the BATCH trial and PRECISE sub-study

INTRODUCTION

The BATCH trial is a multi-centre randomised controlled trial to compare procalcitonin-guided management of severe bacterial infection in children with current management. PRECISE is a mechanistic sub-study embedded into the BATCH trial. This paper describes the statistical analysis plan for the BATCH trial and PRECISE sub-study.

METHODS

The BATCH trial will assess the effectiveness of an additional procalcitonin test in children (aged 72 h to 18 years) hospitalised with suspected or confirmed bacterial infection to guide antimicrobial prescribing decisions. Participants will be enrolled in the trial from randomisation until day 28 follow-up. The co-primary outcomes are duration of intravenous antibiotic use and a composite safety outcome. Target sample size is 1942 patients, based on detecting a 1-day reduction in intravenous antibiotic use (90% power, two-sided) and on a non-inferiority margin of 5% risk difference in the composite safety outcome (90% power, one-sided), while allowing for up to 10% loss to follow-up.

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics will be summarised overall, by trial arm, and by whether patients were recruited before or after the pause in recruitment due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the primary analysis, duration of intravenous antibiotic use will be tested for superiority using Cox regression, and the composite safety outcome will be tested for non-inferiority using logistic regression. The intervention will be judged successful if it reduces the duration of intravenous antibiotic use without compromising safety. Secondary analyses will include sensitivity analyses, pre-specified subgroup analyses, and analysis of secondary outcomes. Two sub-studies, including PRECISE, involve additional pre-specified subgroup analyses. All analyses will be adjusted for the balancing factors used in the randomisation, namely centre and patient age.

CONCLUSION

We describe the statistical analysis plan for the BATCH trial and PRECISE sub-study, including definitions of clinical outcomes, reporting guidelines, statistical principles, and analysis methods. The trial uses a design with co-primary superiority and non-inferiority endpoints. The analysis plan has been written prior to the completion of follow-up.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

BATCH: ISRCTN11369832, registered 20 September 2017, doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN11369832.

PRECISE

ISRCTN14945050, registered 17 December 2020, doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN14945050.

Perspectives of Statistician, Microbiologist, and Clinician Stakeholders on the Use of Microbiological Outcomes in Randomised Trials of Antimicrobial Stewardship Interventions

Microbiological data are used as indicators of infection, for diagnosis, and the identification of antimicrobial resistance in trials of antimicrobial stewardship interventions. However, several problems have been identified in a recently conducted systematic review (e.g., inconsistency in reporting and oversimplified outcomes), which motivates the need to understand and improve the use of these data including analysis and reporting. We engaged key stakeholders including statisticians, clinicians from both primary and secondary care, and microbiologists. Discussions included issues identified in the systematic review and questions about the value of using microbiological data in clinical trials, perspectives on current microbiological outcomes reported in trials, and alternative statistical approaches to analyse these data. Various factors (such as unclear sample collection process, dichotomising or categorising complex microbiological data, and unclear methods of handling missing data) were identified that contributed to the low quality of the microbiological outcomes and the analysis of these outcomes in trials. Whilst not all of these factors would be easy to overcome, there is room for improvement and a need to encourage researchers to understand the impact of misusing these data. This paper discusses the experience and challenges of using microbiological outcomes in clinical trials.

The importance of NOT being Other: Time to address the invisibility of nuanced gender and sexuality in clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Representation of all members of society within research, especially those typically underserved, is needed to ensure that trial evidence applies to the relevant population, and that effective interventions are available to all. The lack of appropriate and representative options in demographic questions around sex, gender and sexuality may result in the exclusion of LGBTQIA + people from health research.

MAIN BODY

Sex and gender are not the same, yet this is rarely recognised in trial data collection, with the terms sex and gender often being used interchangeably. Sex or gender is often used as a stratification factor at randomisation and/or to define sub-groups at the time of data analysis, so correct data collection is essential for producing high-quality science. Sexuality also suffers from 'othering' with identities not being acknowledged but simply provided as an alternative to the perceived main identities. When collecting sexuality information, it is important to consider the purposes of collecting this data.

CONCLUSION

We call on those involved in trials to consider how sex, gender and sexuality data are collected, with an active consideration of inclusivity. Through the description of all non-straight, non-cisgender people as 'other' you may be ignoring the needs of these populations and doing science, yourself, and them a disservice. Inclusivity may require small but important changes to ensure your research findings are inclusive and develop the evidence base for often overlooked populations.

Molnupiravir plus usual care versus usual care alone as early treatment for adults with COVID-19 at increased risk of adverse outcomes (PANORAMIC): an open-label, platform-adaptive randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The safety, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of molnupiravir, an oral antiviral medication for SARS-CoV-2, has not been established in vaccinated patients in the community at increased risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. We aimed to establish whether the addition of molnupiravir to usual care reduced hospital admissions and deaths associated with COVID-19 in this population.

METHODS

PANORAMIC was a UK-based, national, multicentre, open-label, multigroup, prospective, platform adaptive randomised controlled trial. Eligible participants were aged 50 years or older-or aged 18 years or older with relevant comorbidities-and had been unwell with confirmed COVID-19 for 5 days or fewer in the community. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 800 mg molnupiravir twice daily for 5 days plus usual care or usual care only. A secure, web-based system (Spinnaker) was used for randomisation, which was stratified by age (<50 years vs ≥50 years) and vaccination status (yes vs no). COVID-19 outcomes were tracked via a self-completed online daily diary for 28 days after randomisation. The primary outcome was all-cause hospitalisation or death within 28 days of randomisation, which was analysed using Bayesian models in all eligible participants who were randomly assigned. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 30448031.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 8, 2021, and April 27, 2022, 26 411 participants were randomly assigned, 12 821 to molnupiravir plus usual care, 12 962 to usual care alone, and 628 to other treatment groups (which will be reported separately). 12 529 participants from the molnupiravir plus usual care group, and 12 525 from the usual care group were included in the primary analysis population. The mean age of the population was 56·6 years (SD 12·6), and 24 290 (94%) of 25 708 participants had had at least three doses of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Hospitalisations or deaths were recorded in 105 (1%) of 12 529 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group versus 98 (1%) of 12 525 in the usual care group (adjusted odds ratio 1·06 [95% Bayesian credible interval 0·81-1·41]; probability of superiority 0·33). There was no evidence of treatment interaction between subgroups. Serious adverse events were recorded for 50 (0·4%) of 12 774 participants in the molnupiravir plus usual care group and for 45 (0·3%) of 12 934 in the usual care group. None of these events were judged to be related to molnupiravir.

INTERPRETATION

Molnupiravir did not reduce the frequency of COVID-19-associated hospitalisations or death among high-risk vaccinated adults in the community.

FUNDING

UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Psychometric Properties of an Adapted Stigma Scale and Experiences of Stigma Associated with HIV Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Use Among Men Who have Sex with Men: A Mixed Methods Study

Stigma may influence the use of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). However, there is an absence of robust measures for PrEP-related stigma. We describe an adaptation of a HIV stigma scale for use in PrEP users and experiences of PrEP users in Wales (UK) with regards to PrEP-related stigma. A mixed methods study was conducted where PrEP users completed questionnaire items about PrEP-related stigma and a subset were interviewed about their experiences of taking PrEP. We adapted items from the HIV stigma scale and assessed construct validity and internal consistency. We analysed interview data using a framework approach, with themes focussing on enacted and anticipated stigma in order to identify areas for scale refinement. Our measure had good psychometric properties but additional items may be useful (e.g. specific instances of enacted stigma, concerns around homonegativity). Further work is needed to develop this scale and validate it in a larger sample.

The relationship between HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis, sexually transmitted infections, and antimicrobial resistance: a qualitative interview study of men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a medication that prevents the acquisition of HIV. It has been targeted towards men who have sex with men (MSM). Since its introduction there have been concerns raised around changes in sexual behaviour such as increased condomless anal intercourse (CAI), leading to an elevation in sexually transmitted infections (STIs). With antimicrobial resistant strains of STIs rising, there are concerns that PrEP may be contributing to this growth. This study aims to understand how MSM conceptualise the relationship between PrEP, STIs and antimicrobial resistance (AMR).

METHODS

Twenty semi-structured interviews were conducted online using Zoom. Participants include a mix of PrEP related experiences (never used, currently use, previously used). Reflexive thematic analysis was undertaken by the lead author with 10% of transcripts double coded.

RESULTS

MSM in Wales have positive views and a good knowledge of PrEP and awareness of bacterial STIs. PrEP is perceived by many to lead to a reduction in condom use and increase in STIs but reported condom use behaviours presented to be stable in terms of PrEP initiation. PrEP use is influenced by increased concern for HIV and minimal concern for bacterial STIs. Awareness of AMR STIs was lacking.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a belief that PrEP use will lead to an increase in STI rates through reduced condom use, despite reported behaviours often being stable in relation to PrEP initiation, PrEP stigma may be influencing this dichotomy. Concern and awareness for resistant STIs is low, with little association to PrEP.

Feasibility, effectiveness and costs of a decision support intervention for consultees and legal representatives of adults lacking capacity to consent (CONSULT): protocol for a randomised Study Within a Trial

BACKGROUND

Randomised trials play a vital role in underpinning evidence-based care. However, trials involving adults with impaired capacity to consent raise a number of ethical and methodological challenges, leading to the frequent exclusion of this group from trials. This includes challenges around involving family members as alternative 'proxy' decision-makers. Family members are often given little information about their role as a consultee or legal representative. Some family members find making a decision about trial participation difficult and may experience an emotional and decisional burden as a result. Families have reported a need for greater support and guidance when making such decisions, leading to the development of a decision aid ('Making decisions about research for others') for family members acting as consultee/legal representative. The decision aid now requires evaluation to determine its effectiveness in supporting families to make more informed decisions.

METHODS

This protocol describes a prospective, multi-centre, randomised-controlled Study Within a Trial (SWAT) to evaluate the effectiveness of the decision aid. The SWAT will initially be embedded in approximately five host trials. SWAT participants will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to either the intervention (decision aid alongside standard information about the host trial provided to consultees/legal representatives) or control (standard information alone). The primary outcome is the quality of proxy consent decision, assessed by the Combined Scale for Proxy Informed Consent Decisions (CONCORD). The SWAT design is informed by previous qualitative research. Initial feasibility will be explored in one host trial, followed by the main SWAT. An embedded process evaluation and economic evaluation will enable the SWAT findings to be contextualised and identify factors likely to affect implementation.

DISCUSSION

This SWAT will generate the first evidence for recruitment interventions for trials involving adults lacking capacity to consent and add to knowledge about the use of decision support interventions in trial participation decisions. The SWAT will be embedded in a range of trials, and the heterogenous nature of the host trials, settings and populations involved will enable the intervention to be evaluated in a wide range of contexts. However, a pragmatic and flexible approach to conducting the SWAT is needed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The SWAT is registered as SWAT #159 with the Northern Ireland Hub for Trials Methodology Research SWAT repository (registered 09.08.2020). Each host trial will be registered on a clinical trials registry.

Between- and Within-Individual Sociodemographic and Psychological Determinants of PrEP Adherence Among Men Who have Sex with Men Prescribed a Daily PrEP Regimen in Wales

We investigated the determinants of daily PrEP use and coverage of condomless anal sex (CAS) by PrEP among men who have sex with men in Wales, UK. We measured PrEP use by electronic monitors and CAS by secure online surveys. We defined PrEP use based on daily medication cap openings and coverage as CAS episodes preceded by ≥ 3 days of PrEP use and followed by ≥ 2 days of PrEP use. We included 57 participants (5463 observations). An STI diagnosis was associated with lower PrEP use but also lower PrEP coverage. Older adults had higher PrEP use. A belief that other PrEP users took PrEP as prescribed was associated with lower PrEP coverage. An STI diagnosis is an important cue for an intervention, reflecting episodes of high-risk sexual behaviour and low PrEP coverage. Other results provide a basis for the development of an evidence-informed intervention for promoting coverage of PrEP.

What is the purpose of clinical trial monitoring?

BACKGROUND

The sources of information on clinical trial monitoring do not give information in an accessible language and do not give detailed guidance. In order to enable communication and to build clinical trial monitoring tools on a strong easily communicated foundation, we identified the need to define monitoring in accessible language.

METHODS

In a three-step process, the material from sources that describe clinical trial monitoring were synthesised into principles of monitoring. A poll regarding their applicability was run at a UK national academic clinical trials monitoring meeting.

RESULTS

The process derived 5 key principles of monitoring: keeping participants safe and respecting their rights, having data we can trust, making sure the trial is being run as it was meant to be, improving the way the trial is run and preventing problems before they happen.

CONCLUSION

From the many sources mentioning monitoring of clinical trials, the purpose of monitoring can be summarised simply as 5 principles. These principles, given in accessible language, should form a firm basis for discussion of monitoring of clinical trials.

Incidence and sociodemographic, living environment and maternal health associations with stillbirth in a tertiary healthcare setting in Kano, Northern Nigeria

Background

Almost two million stillbirths occur annually, most occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Nigeria is reported to have one of the highest stillbirth rates on the African continent. The aim was to identify sociodemographic, living environment, and health status factors associated with stillbirth and determine the associations between pregnancy and birth factors and stillbirth in the Murtala Mohammed Specialist Hospital, Kano, Nigeria.

Methods

A three-month single-site prospective observational feasibility study. Demographic and clinical data were collected. We fitted bivariable and multivariable models for stillbirth (yes/no) and three-category livebirth/macerated stillbirth/non-macerated stillbirth outcomes to explore their association with demographic and clinical factors.

Findings

1,998 neonates and 1,926 mothers were enrolled. Higher odds of stillbirth were associated with low-levels of maternal education, a further distance to travel to the hospital, living in a shack, maternal hypertension, previous stillbirth, birthing complications, increased duration of labour, antepartum haemorrhage, prolonged or obstructed labour, vaginal breech delivery, emergency caesarean-section, and signs of trauma to the neonate following birth.

Interpretation

This work has obtained data on some factors influencing stillbirth. This in turn will facilitate the development of improved public health interventions to reduce preventable deaths and to progress maternal health within this site.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-022-04971-x.

Recruitment interventions for trials involving adults lacking capacity to consent: methodological and ethical considerations for designing Studies Within a Trial (SWATs)

BACKGROUND

The number of interventions to improve recruitment and retention of participants in trials is rising, with a corresponding growth in randomised Studies Within Trials (SWATs) to evaluate their (cost-)effectiveness. Despite recognised challenges in conducting trials involving adults who lack capacity to consent, until now, no individual-level recruitment interventions have focused on this population. Following the development of a decision aid for family members making non-emergency trial participation decisions on behalf of people with impaired capacity, we have designed a SWAT to evaluate the decision aid in a number of host trials (CONSULT). Unlike in recruitment SWATs to date, the CONSULT intervention is aimed at a 'proxy' decision-maker (a family member) who is not a participant in the host trial and does not receive the trial intervention. This commentary explores the methodological and ethical considerations encountered when designing such SWATs, using the CONSULT SWAT as a case example. Potential solutions to address these issues are also presented.

DISCUSSION

We encountered practical issues around informed consent, data collection, and follow-up which involves linking the intervention receiver (the proxy) with recruitment and retention data from the host trial, as well as issues around randomisation level, resource use, and maintaining the integrity of the host trial. Unless addressed, methodological uncertainty about differential recruitment and heterogeneity between trial populations could potentially limit the scope for drawing robust inferences and harmonising data from different SWAT host trials. Proxy consent is itself ethically complex, and so when conducting a SWAT which aims to disrupt and enhance proxy consent decisions, there are additional ethical issues to be considered.

CONCLUSIONS

Designing a SWAT to evaluate a recruitment intervention for non-emergency trials with adults lacking capacity to consent has raised a number of methodological and ethical considerations. Explicating these challenges, and some potential ways to address them, creates a starting point for discussions about conducting these potentially more challenging SWATs. Increasing the evidence base for the conduct of trials involving adults lacking capacity to consent is intended to improve both the ability to conduct these trials and their quality, and so help build research capacity for this under-served population.

Antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infection in children presenting in primary care (ARTIC-PC): the predictive value of molecular testing

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess whether the presence of bacteria or viruses in the upper airway of children presenting with uncomplicated lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) predicts the benefit of antibiotics.

METHODS

Children between 6 months and 12 years presenting to UK general practices with an acute LRTI were randomized to receive amoxicillin 50 mg/kg/d for 7 days or placebo. Children not randomized (ineligible or clinician/parental choice) could participate in a parallel observational study. The primary outcome was the duration of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse. Throat swabs were taken and analyzed for the presence of bacteria and viruses by multiplex PCR.

RESULTS

Swab results were available for most participants in the trial (306 of 432; 71%) and in the observational (182 of 326; 59%) studies. Bacterial pathogens potentially sensitive to amoxicillin (Haemophilus influenzae, Moraxella catarrhalis, Streptococcus pneumoniae) were detected among 51% of the trial placebo group and 49% of the trial antibiotic group. The median difference in the duration of symptoms rated moderately bad or worse between antibiotic and placebo was similar when potentially antibiotic-susceptible bacteria were present (median: -1 day; 99% CI, -12.3 to 10.3) or not present (median: -1 day; 99% CI, -4.5 to 2.5). Furthermore, bacterial genome copy number did not predict benefit. There were similar findings for all secondary outcomes and when including the data from the observational study.

DISCUSSION

There was no clear evidence that antibiotics improved clinical outcomes conditional on the presence or concentration of bacteria or viruses in the upper airway. Before deploying microbiologic point-of-care tests for children with uncomplicated LRTI in primary care, rigorous validating trials are needed.

Development of a core outcome set for the evaluation of interventions to prevent COVID-19 in care homes (COS-COVID-PCARE Study)

Background

People living in care homes have experienced devastating impact from COVID-19. As interventions to prevent the transmission of COVID-19 are developed and evaluated, there is an urgent need for researchers to agree on the outcomes used when evaluating their effectiveness. Having an agreed set of outcomes that are used in all relevant trials can ensure that study results can be compared.

Objective

The aim of the study was to develop a core outcome set (COS) for trials assessing the effectiveness of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions for preventing COVID-19 infection and transmission in care homes.

Methods

The study used established COS methodology. A list of candidate outcomes was identified by reviewing registered trials to evaluate interventions to prevent COVID-19 in care homes. Seventy key stakeholders participated in a Delphi survey, rating the candidate outcomes on a nine-point scale over two rounds, with the opportunity to propose additional outcomes. Stakeholders included care home representatives (n = 19), healthcare professionals (n = 20), people with personal experience of care homes (n = 7), researchers (n = 15) and others (n = 9). Outcomes were eligible for inclusion if they met an a priori threshold. A consensus meeting with stakeholders resulted in agreement of the final outcome set.

Results

Following the Delphi and consensus meeting, twenty-four outcomes were recommended for inclusion. These are grouped across four domains of infection, severity of illness, mortality, and ‘other’ (intervention specific or life impact). Due to the considerable heterogeneity between care homes, residents, and interventions, the relevance and importance of outcomes may differ between trial contexts. Intervention-specific outcomes would be included only where relevant to a given trial, thus reducing the measurement burden.

Conclusion

Using a rapid response approach, a COS for COVID-19 prevention interventions in care homes has been developed. Future work should focus on identifying instruments for measuring these outcomes, and the interpretation and application of the COS across different trial contexts. Beyond COVID-19, the outcomes identified in this COS may have relevance to other infectious diseases in care homes, and the rapid response approach may be useful as preparation for future pandemics.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03395-8.

AZTEC-azithromycin therapy for prevention of chronic lung disease of prematurity: a statistical analysis plan for clinical outcomes

Background

The AZTEC trial is a multi-centre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial of azithromycin to improve survival without development of chronic lung disease of prematurity (CLD) in preterm infants. The statistical analysis plan for the clinical outcomes of the AZTEC trial is described.

Methods and design

A double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial of a 10-day course of intravenous azithromycin (20 mg/kg for 3 days; 10 mg/kg for 7 days) administered to preterm infants born at < 30 weeks’ gestational age across UK tertiary neonatal units. Following parental consent, infants are randomly allocated to azithromycin or placebo, with allocated treatment starting within 72 h of birth. The primary outcome is survival without moderate/severe CLD at 36 weeks’ postmenstrual age (PMA). Serial respiratory fluid and stool samples are being collected up to 21 days of life. The target sample size is 796 infants, which is based on detecting a 12% absolute difference in survival without moderate/severe CLD at 36 weeks’ PMA (90% power, two-sided alpha of 0.05) and includes 10% loss to follow-up.

Results

Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics will be summarised by treatment arm and in total. Categorical data will be summarised by numbers and percentages. Continuous data will be summarised by mean, standard deviation, if data are normal, or median, interquartile range, if data are skewed. Tests of statistical significance will not be undertaken for baseline characteristics. The primary analysis, on the intention to treat (ITT) population, will be analysed using multilevel logistic regression, within a multiple imputation framework. Adjusted odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals, and p-values will be presented. For all other analyses, the analysis population will be based on the complete case population, which is a modified ITT population. All analyses will be adjusted for gestational age and treatment arm and account for any clustering by centre and/or multiple births as a random effect.

Conclusion

We describe the statistical analysis plan for the AZTEC trial, including the analysis principles, definitions of the key clinical outcomes, methods for primary analysis, pre-specified subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, and secondary analysis. The plan has been finalised prior to the completion of recruitment.

Trial registration

ISRCTN registry ISRCTN11650227. Registered on 31 July 2018.

Experiences of men who have sex with men when initiating, implementing and persisting with HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis

INTRODUCTION

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) involves the use of antiretroviral medication in HIV-negative individuals considered to be at risk of acquiring HIV. It has been shown to prevent HIV and has been available in Wales since July 2017. Measuring and understanding adherence to PrEP is complex as it relies on the simultaneous understanding of both PrEP use and sexual activity. We aimed to understand the experiences of men who have sex with men (MSM) living in Wales initiating, implementing and persisting with HIV PrEP.

METHODS

We conducted semistructured interviews with MSM PrEP users in Wales who participated in a cohort study of PrEP use and sexual behaviour. Following completion of the cohort study, participants were invited to take part in a semistructured interview about their experiences of taking PrEP. We aimed to include both individuals who had persisted with and discontinued PrEP during the study. The interview topic guide was informed by the ABC taxonomy for medication adherence and the theory of planned behaviour. We analysed our data using reflexive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Twenty-one participants were interviewed, five having discontinued PrEP during the cohort study. The developed themes focused on triggers for initiating PrEP, habitual behaviour, drivers for discontinuation and engagement with sexual health services. Stigma surrounding both PrEP and HIV permeated most topics, acting as a driver for initiating PrEP, an opportunity to reduce discrimination against people living with HIV, but also a concern around the perception of PrEP users.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to investigate PrEP-taking experiences incorporating established medication adherence taxonomy. We highlight key experiences regarding the initiation, implementation and persistence with PrEP and describe how taking PrEP may promote positive engagement with sexual health services. These findings may be useful for informing PrEP rollout programmes and need to be explored in other key populations.

PATIENT AND PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

PrEP users, in addition to PrEP providers and representatives of HIV advocacy and policy, were involved in developing the topic guide for this study.

Paediatric early warning systems: not a simple answer to a complex question

Paediatric early warning systems (PEWS) to reduce in-hospital mortality have been a laudable endeavour. Evaluation of their impact has rarely examined the internal validity of the components of PEWS in achieving desired outcomes. We highlight the assumptions made regarding the mode of action of PEWS and, as PEWS become more commonplace, this paper asks whether we really understand their function, process and outcome.

PROcalcitonin and NEWS2 evaluation for Timely identification of sepsis and Optimal use of antibiotics in the emergency department (PRONTO): protocol for a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Sepsis is a common, potentially life-threatening complication of infection. The optimal treatment for sepsis includes prompt antibiotics and intravenous fluids, facilitated by its early and accurate recognition. Currently, clinicians identify and assess severity of suspected sepsis using validated clinical scoring systems. In England, the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) has been mandated across all National Health Service (NHS) trusts and ambulance organisations. Like many clinical scoring systems, NEWS2 should not be used without clinical judgement to determine either the level of acuity or a diagnosis. Despite this, there is a tendency to overemphasise the score in isolation in patients with suspected infection, leading to the overprescription of antibiotics and potentially treatment-related complications and rising antimicrobial resistance. The biomarker procalcitonin (PCT) has been shown to be useful in specific circumstances to support appropriate antibiotics prescribing by identifying bacterial infection. PCT is not routinely used in the care of undifferentiated patients presenting to emergency departments (EDs), and the evidence base of its optimal usage is poor. The PROcalcitonin and NEWS2 evaluation for Timely identification of sepsis and Optimal (PRONTO) study is a randomised controlled trial (RCT) in adults with suspected sepsis presenting to the ED to compare standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring plus PCT-guided risk assessment with standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring alone and compare if this approach reduces prescriptions of antibiotics without increasing mortality.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

PRONTO is a parallel two-arm open-label individually RCT set in up to 20 NHS EDs in the UK with a target sample size of 7676 participants. Participants will be randomised in a ratio of 1:1 to standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring or standard clinical management based on NEWS2 scoring plus PCT-guided risk assessment. We will compare whether the addition of PCT measurement to NEWS2 scoring can lead to a reduction in intravenous antibiotic initiation in ED patients managed as suspected sepsis, with at least no increase in 28-day mortality compared with NEWS2 scoring alone (in conjunction with local standard care pathways). PRONTO has two coprimary endpoints: initiation of intravenous antibiotics at 3 hours (superiority comparison) and 28-day mortality (non-inferiority comparison). The study has an internal pilot phase and group-sequential stopping rules for effectiveness and futility/safety, as well as a qualitative substudy and a health economic evaluation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial protocol was approved by the Health Research Authority (HRA) and NHS Research Ethics Committee (Wales REC 2, reference 20/WA/0058). In England and Wales, the law allows the use of deferred consent in approved research situations (including ED studies) where the time dependent nature of intervention would not allow true informed consent to be obtained. PRONTO has approval for a deferred consent process to be used. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN54006056.

Unpacking the 'black box of horrendousness': a qualitative exploration of the barriers and facilitators to conducting trials involving adults lacking capacity to consent

Background

Trials involving adults who lack capacity to consent encounter a range of ethical and methodological challenges, resulting in these populations frequently being excluded from research. Currently, there is little evidence regarding the nature and extent of these challenges, nor strategies to improve the design and conduct of such trials. This qualitative study explored researchers’ and healthcare professionals’ experiences of the barriers and facilitators to conducting trials involving adults lacking capacity to consent.

Methods

Semi-structured interviews were conducted remotely with 26 researchers and healthcare professionals with experience in a range of roles, trial populations and settings across the UK. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.

Results

A number of inter-related barriers and facilitators were identified and mapped against key trial processes including during trial design decisions, navigating ethical approval, assessing capacity, identifying and involving alternative decision-makers and when revisiting consent. Three themes were identified: (1) the perceived and actual complexity of trials involving adults lacking capacity, (2) importance of having access to appropriate support and resources and (3) need for building greater knowledge and expertise to support future trials. Barriers to trials included the complexity of the legal frameworks, the role of gatekeepers, a lack of access to expertise and training, and the resource-intensive nature of these trials. The ability to conduct trials was facilitated by having prior experience with these populations, effective communication between research teams, public involvement contributions, and the availability of additional data to inform the trial. Participants also identified a range of context-specific recruitment issues and highlighted the importance of ‘designing in’ flexibility and the use of adaptive strategies which were especially important for trials during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants identified a need for better training and support.

Conclusions

Researchers encountered a number of barriers, including both generic and context or population-specific challenges, which may be reinforced by wider factors such as resource limitations and knowledge deficits. Greater access to expertise and training, and the development of supportive interventions and tailored guidance, is urgently needed in order to build research capacity in this area and facilitate the successful delivery of trials involving this under-served population.

Neonatal sepsis and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries from a facility-based birth cohort: an international multisite prospective observational study

Background

Neonatal sepsis is a primary cause of neonatal mortality and is an urgent global health concern, especially within low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of global neonatal mortality occurs. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence and associations with neonatal sepsis and all-cause mortality in facility-born neonates in LMICs.

Methods

The Burden of Antibiotic Resistance in Neonates from Developing Societies (BARNARDS) study recruited mothers and their neonates into a prospective observational cohort study across 12 clinical sites from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Rwanda, and South Africa. Data for sepsis-associated factors in the four domains of health care, maternal, birth and neonatal, and living environment were collected for all mothers and neonates enrolled. Primary outcomes were clinically suspected sepsis, laboratory-confirmed sepsis, and all-cause mortality in neonates during the first 60 days of life. Incidence proportion of livebirths for clinically suspected sepsis and laboratory-confirmed sepsis and incidence rate per 1000 neonate-days for all-cause mortality were calculated. Modified Poisson regression was used to investigate factors associated with neonatal sepsis and parametric survival models for factors associated with all-cause mortality.

Findings

Between Nov 12, 2015 and Feb 1, 2018, 29 483 mothers and 30 557 neonates were enrolled. The incidence of clinically suspected sepsis was 166·0 (95% CI 97·69–234·24) per 1000 livebirths, laboratory-confirmed sepsis was 46·9 (19·04–74·79) per 1000 livebirths, and all-cause mortality was 0·83 (0·37–2·00) per 1000 neonate-days. Maternal hypertension, previous maternal hospitalisation within 12 months, average or higher monthly household income, ward size (>11 beds), ward type (neonatal), living in a rural environment, preterm birth, perinatal asphyxia, and multiple births were associated with an increased risk of clinically suspected sepsis, laboratory-confirmed sepsis, and all-cause mortality. The majority (881 [72·5%] of 1215) of laboratory-confirmed sepsis cases occurred within the first 3 days of life.

Interpretation

Findings from this study highlight the substantial proportion of neonates who develop neonatal sepsis, and the high mortality rates among neonates with sepsis in LMICs. More efficient and effective identification of neonatal sepsis is needed to target interventions to reduce its incidence and subsequent mortality in LMICs.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Treatment of Hidradenitis Suppurativa Evaluation Study (THESEUS): protocol for a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) is a chronic, painful, inflammatory skin disease with estimates of prevalence in the European population of 1%-2%. Despite being a relatively common condition, the evidence base for management of HS is limited. European and North American management guidelines rely on consensus for many aspects of treatment and within the UK variations in management of HS have been identified. The HS James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership (PSP) published a top 10 list of future HS research priorities including both medical and surgical interventions. The aims of the THESEUS study are to inform the design of future HS randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and to understand how HS treatments are currently used. THESEUS incorporates several HS PSP research priorities, including investigation of oral and surgical treatments. Core outcome domains have been established by the HIdradenitis SuppuraTiva cORe outcomes set International Collaboration (HISTORIC) and THESEUS is designed to validate instruments to measure the domains.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The THESEUS study is a prospective observational cohort study. Participants, adults with active HS of any severity, will be asked to select one of five HS treatment options that is appropriate for their HS care. Participants will be allocated to their chosen treatment intervention and followed for a period of up to 12 months. Outcomes will be assessed at 3-monthly intervals using HISTORIC core outcome instruments. Video recordings of the surgical and laser operations will provide informational and training videos for future trials. Nested mixed-methods studies will characterise the interventions in clinical practice, understand facilitators and barriers to recruitment into future HS RCTs and examine patients' and clinicians' perspectives on HS treatment choices.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN69985145.

The Presence of Exophiala dermatitidis in the Respiratory Tract of Cystic Fibrosis Patients Accelerates Lung Function Decline: A Retrospective Review of Lung Function

Exophiala dermatitidis is increasingly isolated from cystic fibrosis (CF) respiratory samples. The decision to treat is hampered by limited evidence demonstrating the clinical significance of isolating E. dermatitidis. The objective was to assess the impact of E. dermatitidis isolation on the lung function of CF patients. The rate of lung function decline in the local CF population was calculated using historic lung function data. A control population who had never had E. dermatitidis cultured from the respiratory tract was compared with the E. dermatitidis group, calculating their rate of lung function decline before and after the first isolation of the organism. A total of 1840 lung function measurements were reviewed between the 31 E. dermatitidis group patients and 62 control patients. Their demographics were similar. The control group declined at a rate of −0.824 FEV1%/year. The rate of decline in the E. dermatitidis group prior to infection was −0.337 FEV1%/year (p = 0.2). However, post infection with E. dermatitidis, there was a significant increase in the rate of decline in lung function (−1.824 FEV1%/year, p < 0.01). The results suggest E. dermatitidis has a temporal relationship with accelerated rate of lung function decline. It is not clear if this is a cause or effect, but this accelerated rate of decline indicates a need for further investigation.

Changing sexual behaviours amongst MSM during the COVID-19 restrictions in Wales: a mixed methods study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic and its associated restrictions stopped people freely engaging in sexual behaviour. We explored sexual behaviour amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) using mixed methods during the multiple lockdowns in Wales.

METHODS

An online survey was advertised on social media platforms (focusing on Welsh LGBT groups), from June 2020 to July 2020. MSM over 16 years were invited to take part if they were resident in Wales. Qualitative interviews were undertaken as part of a study examining knowledge and awareness of sexual health. Interviews were conducted between September 2020 and February 2021 via Zoom©. Interview data was analysed thematically and integrated with survey data.

RESULTS

The survey received 70 responses, 60% (n = 42) reported not having sexual activity during lockdown. Restrictions altered the number of new sexual partners per week with over 80% (n = 56) not having any new sexual partners for the 12 weeks of the first lockdown. However, as the weeks progressed following the first lockdown there was an increase in the number of new sexual partners. Interview data indicated that the COVID-19 pandemic had a large impact on reducing sexual behaviour with other MSM in Wales. 'Lockdown fatigue' was viewed to result in different levels of adherence to the lockdown rules depending on the lockdown being discussed. Of those engaging in sex outside the rules, 'shame' was commonly reported. The restrictions were believed to have a positive impact on reducing the spread of sexually transmitted infections.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions had a significant impact on sexual behaviours among MSM in Wales, with the majority fully adhering to the lockdown rules. Although the population were largely compliant with the lockdown restrictions, lockdown fatigue may suggest that any future lockdowns might not have the same effect.

Effectiveness of the Strengthening Families Programme in the UK at preventing substance misuse in 10-14 year-olds: a pragmatic randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

The Strengthening Families Programme 10-14 (SFP10-14) is a USA-developed universal group-based intervention aiming to prevent substance misuse by strengthening protective factors within the family. This study evaluated a proportionate universal implementation of the adapted UK version (SFP10-14UK) which brought together families identified as likely/not likely to experience/present challenges within a group setting.

DESIGN

Pragmatic cluster-randomised controlled effectiveness trial, with families as the unit of randomisation and embedded process and economic evaluations.

SETTING

The study took place in seven counties of Wales, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

715 families (919 parents/carers, 931 young people) were randomised.

INTERVENTIONS

Families randomised to the intervention arm received the SFP10-14 comprising seven weekly sessions. Families in intervention and control arms received existing services as normal.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcomes were the number of occasions young people reported drinking alcohol in the last 30 days; and drunkenness during the same period, dichotomised as 'never' and '1-2 times or more'. Secondary outcomes examined alcohol/tobacco/substance behaviours including: cannabis use; weekly smoking (validated by salivary cotinine measures); age of alcohol initiation; frequency of drinking >5 drinks in a row; frequency of different types of alcoholic drinks; alcohol-related problems. Retention: primary analysis included 746 young people (80.1%) (alcohol consumption) and 732 young people (78.6%) (drunkenness).

RESULTS

There was no evidence of statistically significant between-group differences 2 years after randomisation for primary outcomes (young people's alcohol consumption in the last 30 days adjusted OR=1.11, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.71, p=0.646; drunkenness in the last 30 days adjusted OR=1.46, 95% CI 0.83 to 2.55, p=0.185). There were no statistically significant between-group differences for other substance use outcomes, or those relating to well-being/stress, and emotional/behavioural problems.

CONCLUSIONS

Previous evidence of effectiveness was not replicated. Findings highlight the importance of evaluating interventions when they are adapted for new settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN63550893.Cite Now.

Nurse-led home-visitation programme for first-time mothers in reducing maltreatment and improving child health and development (BB:2-6): longer-term outcomes from a randomised cohort using data linkage

OBJECTIVES

Measure effectiveness of family nurse partnership (FNP) home-visiting programme in reducing maltreatment and improving maternal health and child health, developmental and educational outcomes; explore effect moderators, mediators; describe costs.

DESIGN

Follow-up of BB:0-2 trial cohort (ISRCTN:23019866) up to age 7 years in England using record linkage.

PARTICIPANTS

1618 mothers aged 19 years or younger and their firstborn child(ren) recruited to BB:0-2 trial at less than 25 weeks gestation and not mandatorily withdrawn from trial or opted out. Intervention families were offered up to a maximum of 64 home visits by specially trained nurses from pregnancy until firstborn child was 2 years old, plus usually provided health and social care support. Comparator was usual care alone.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome: state-verified child-in-need status recorded at any time during follow-up.

SECONDARY OUTCOMES

referral to social services, child protection registration (plan), child-in-need categorisation, looked-after status, recorded injuries and ingestions any time during follow-up, early childcare and educational attendance, school readiness and attainment at key stage 1 (KS1), healthcare costs.

RESULTS

Match rates for 1547 eligible children (1517 singletons, 15 sets of twins) were 98.3% (NHS Digital) and 97.4% (National Pupil Database). There was no difference between study arms in the proportion of children being registered as in need (adjusted OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.31), or for any other measure of maltreatment. Children in the FNP arm were more likely to achieve a good level of development at reception age (school readiness) (adjusted OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.52). After adjusting for birth month, children in FNP arm were more likely to reach the expected standard in reading at KS1 (adjusted OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.57). We found no trial arm differences for resource use and costs.

CONCLUSIONS

FNP did not improve maltreatment or maternal outcomes. There was evidence of small advantages in school readiness and attainment at KS1.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN23019866.

Associations with Post-Consultation Health-Status in Primary Care Managed Acute Exacerbation of COPD

Background

It has been demonstrated that antibiotic prescribing for Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (AECOPD) can be safely reduced in primary care when general practitioners have access to C-reactive protein (CRP) rapid testing.

Aim

To investigate the factors associated with post-consultation COPD health status in patients presenting with AECOPD in this setting.

Design and Setting

A cohort study of patients enrolled in a randomised controlled trial. Patients aged 40+ years with a clinical diagnosis of COPD who presented in primary care across England and Wales with an AECOPD were included.

Methods

Participants were contacted for follow-up at one- and two-weeks by phone and attended the practice four weeks after the index consultation. The outcome of interest was the Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ) score. Multivariable multilevel linear regression models fitted to examine the factors associated with COPD health status in the four-weeks following consultation for an AECOPD.

Results

A total of 649 patients were included, with 1947 CCQ total scores analysed. Post-consultation CCQ total scores were significantly higher (worse) in participants with diabetes (adjusted mean difference [AMD]=0.26; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08–0.45), obese patients compared to those with normal body mass index (AMD = 0.25, 95% CI 0.07–0.43), and those who were prescribed oral antibiotics in the prior 12 months (AMD = 0.26; 95% CI 0.11–0.41), but only the two latter associations remained after adjusting for other sociodemographic variables.

Conclusion

COPD health status was worse in the four weeks following primary care consultation for AECOPD in patients with obesity and those prescribed oral antibiotics in the preceding year.

Moving on trial: protocol for a pilot randomised controlled trial of models of housing and support to reduce risks of COVID-19 infection and homelessness

BACKGROUND

It is estimated that around 160,000 households in Britain experience homelessness each year, although no definitive statistics exist. Between March and September 2020, as part of the initial 'Everyone In' government response to COVID-19 in England, 10,566 people were living in emergency accommodation and nearly 18,911 people had been moved into settled accommodation. However, some forms of temporary accommodation may not be suitable as shared facilities make it impossible for people to adhere to government guidelines to reduce the spread of COVID-19.

METHODS

This is parallel group, pilot randomised controlled trial. The target is to recruit three local authorities, each of which will recruit 50 participants (thus a total of approximately 150 participants). Individuals are eligible if they are aged 18 and over, in a single-person homeless household, temporarily accommodated by the LA with recourse to public funds. Participants will be randomised to receive settled accommodation (intervention group) or temporary accommodation (control group). The intervention group includes settled housing such as Private Rented Sector (low and medium support), Social Housing (low and medium support), and Housing First (High support). The control group will maintain treatment as usual. The follow-up period will last 6 months. The primary outcome is to assess the feasibility of recruitment, retention, and acceptability of trial processes against progression criteria laid out in a traffic light system (green: all criteria are met, the trial should progress as designed in this pilot; amber: the majority of criteria are met and with adaptations to methods all criteria could be met; red: the minority of criteria are met and the pilot RCT should not proceed). Secondary outcomes include assessment of completeness of data collection at 3 and 6 months and percentage of participants consenting to data linkage, as well as a process evaluation and economic evaluation.

DISCUSSION

This trial will address feasibility questions associated with progression to a fully powered effectiveness trial of models of housing to reduce risk of COVID-19 infection and homelessness.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN69564614 . Registered on December 16, 2020.

Attitudes towards the collection and linkage of maltreatment data for research: A qualitative study

INTRODUCTION

Factors that affect public and professionals' attitudes towards the collection and linkage of health and other data have been explored in the literature. Thus far there has been no study exploring attitudes towards the collection of child maltreatment data.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim is to explore attitudes regarding the collection and linkage of maltreatment data for research.

METHODS

Participants included younger mothers, older mothers, care-experienced young people, and professionals who were responsible for recording child maltreatment data. Four face-to-face focus groups were conducted, one with younger mothers (n = 6), one with older mothers (n = 10), and two with care-experienced young people (n = 6 and n = 5). An online focus group was conducted with professionals (n = 10), two of whom additionally participated in telephone interviews. Transcribed audio-recorded data were inductively coded, a portion were double-coded by a second researcher, and thematically analysed.

RESULTS

Three major themes were identified. The first concerned issues of consent, specifically the conditions for providing consent and factors influencing this. The second concerned trust in data security and validity, the organisations and individuals providing and using the data, and how the information provided shapes attitudes. The third theme explored the benefits of research and the researchers' role in child protection. Participants wanted the choice of providing consent for data collection, especially when consenting on behalf of another, but there were concerns that maltreated children were unidentifiable in anonymised datasets. Care-experienced young people were concerned about data collection from Social Services records due to their sensitivity. There was a general lack of understanding about how research data is viewed and the accuracy of records.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel findings in the study were strongly related to the sensitive nature of the topic. The findings may be particularly useful when designing research studies and participant materials and a co-productive approach to this should be taken.

Attitudes towards the collection and linkage of maltreatment data for research: A qualitative study

IntroductionFactors that affect public and professionals' attitudes towards the collection and linkage of health and other data have been explored in the literature. Thus far there has been no study exploring attitudes towards the collection of child maltreatment data. ObjectivesOur aim is to explore attitudes regarding the collection and linkage of maltreatment data for research. MethodsParticipants included younger mothers, older mothers, care-experienced young people, and professionals who were responsible for recording child maltreatment data. Four face-to-face focus groups were conducted, one with younger mothers (n = 6), one with older mothers (n = 10), and two with care-experienced young people (n = 6 and n = 5). An online focus group was conducted with professionals (n = 10), two of whom additionally participated in telephone interviews. Transcribed audio-recorded data were inductively coded, a portion were double-coded by a second researcher, and thematically analysed. ResultsThree major themes were identified. The first concerned issues of consent, specifically the conditions for providing consent and factors influencing this. The second concerned trust in data security and validity, the organisations and individuals providing and using the data, and how the information provided shapes attitudes. The third theme explored the benefits of research and the researchers' role in child protection. Participants wanted the choice of providing consent for data collection, especially when consenting on behalf of another, but there were concerns that maltreated children were unidentifiable in anonymised datasets. Care-experienced young people were concerned about data collection from Social Services records due to their sensitivity. There was a general lack of understanding about how research data is viewed and the accuracy of records. ConclusionsNovel findings in the study were strongly related to the sensitive nature of the topic. The findings may be particularly useful when designing research studies and participant materials and a co-productive approach to this should be taken.

Biomarker-guided duration of Antibiotic Treatment in Children Hospitalised with confirmed or suspected bacterial infection (BATCH): protocol for a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Procalcitonin (PCT) is a biomarker more specific for bacterial infection and responds quicker than other commonly used biomarkers such as C reactive protein, but is not routinely used in the National Health Service (NHS). Studies mainly in adults show that using PCT to guide clinicians may reduce antibiotic use, reduce hospital stay, with no associated adverse effects such as increased rates of hospital re-admission, incomplete treatment of infections, relapse or death. A review conducted for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommends further research on PCT testing to guide antibiotic use in children.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Biomarker-guided duration of Antibiotic Treatment in Children Hospitalised with confirmed or suspected bacterial infection is a multi-centre, prospective, two-arm, individually Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) with a 28-day follow-up and internal pilot. The intervention is a PCT-guided algorithm used in conjunction with best practice. The control arm is best practice alone. We plan to recruit 1942 children, aged between 72 hours and up to 18 years old, who are admitted to the hospital and being treated with intravenous antibiotics for suspected or confirmed bacterial infection. Coprimary outcomes are duration of antibiotic use and a composite safety measure. Secondary outcomes include time to switch from broad to narrow spectrum antibiotics, time to discharge, adverse drug reactions, health utility and cost-effectiveness. We will also perform a qualitative process evaluation. Recruitment commenced in June 2018 and paused briefly between March and May 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial protocol was approved by the HRA and NHS REC (North West Liverpool East REC reference 18/NW/0100). We will publish the results in international peer-reviewed journals and present at scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN11369832.

Determinants of Stillbirth From Two Observational Studies Investigating Deliveries in Kano, Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Stillbirths are a poignant representation of global inequality. Nigeria is documented to have the second highest rate; yet, the reporting system is inadequate in most Nigerian healthcare facilities. The aim was to identify the determinants of stillbirth among deliveries in the Murtala Muhammad Specialist Hospital (MMSH), Kano, Nigeria.

METHODS

Two study designs were used: a case-control study (S1) and a prospective cohort study (S2). Both studies were carried out at the MMSH. For S1, stillbirths were retrospectively matched to a livebirth by time (target of 24 hours' time variation) to establish a case-control study with a 1:1 ratio. Eligibility into S2 included all mothers who were presented at the MMSH in labour regardless of birth outcome. Both were based on recruitment durations, not sample sizes (3 months and 2 months, respectively, 2017-2018). The demographic and clinical data were collected through paper-based questionnaires. Univariable logistic regression was used. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore relationships between area type and other specific factors.

FINDINGS

Stillbirth incidence in S2 was 180/1,000 births. Stillbirth was associated with the following factors; no maternal education, previous stillbirth(s), prematurity, living in both semi-rural and rural settings, and having extended time periods between rupture of membranes and delivery. Findings of the multivariable analysis (S1 and S2) indicated that the odds of stillbirth, for those living in a rural area, were further exacerbated in those mothers who had no education, lived in a shack, or had any maternal disease.

INTERPRETATION

This research identifies the gravity of this situation in this area and highlights the need for action. Further understanding of some of the findings and exploration into associations are required to inform intervention development.

FUNDING

This collaboration was partially supported by funding from Health and Care Research Wales.

Development, implementation and evaluation of an evidence-based paediatric early warning system improvement programme: the PUMA mixed methods study

Background

Paediatric mortality rates in the United Kingdom are amongst the highest in Europe. Clinically missed deterioration is a contributory factor. Evidence to support any single intervention to address this problem is limited, but a cumulative body of research highlights the need for a systems approach.

Methods

An evidence-based, theoretically informed, paediatric early warning system improvement programme (PUMA Programme) was developed and implemented in two general hospitals (no onsite Paediatric Intensive Care Unit) and two tertiary hospitals (with onsite Paediatric Intensive Care Unit) in the United Kingdom. Designed to harness local expertise to implement contextually appropriate improvement initiatives, the PUMA Programme includes a propositional model of a paediatric early warning system, system assessment tools, guidance to support improvement initiatives and structured facilitation and support.

Each hospital was evaluated using interrupted time series and qualitative case studies. The primary quantitative outcome was a composite metric (adverse events), representing the number of children monthly that experienced one of the following: mortality, cardiac arrest, respiratory arrest, unplanned admission to Paediatric Intensive Care Unit, or unplanned admission to Higher Dependency Unit. System changes were assessed qualitatively through observations of clinical practice and interviews with staff and parents. A qualitative evaluation of implementation processes was undertaken.

Results

All sites assessed their paediatric early warning systems and identified areas for improvement. All made contextually appropriate system changes, despite implementation challenges. There was a decline in the adverse event rate trend in three sites; in one site where system wide changes were organisationally supported, the decline was significant (ß = -0.09 (95% CI: − 0.15, − 0.05); p = < 0.001). Changes in trends coincided with implementation of site-specific changes.

Conclusions

System level change to improve paediatric early warning systems can bring about positive impacts on clinical outcomes, but in paediatric practice, where the patient population is smaller and clinical outcomes event rates are low, alternative outcome measures are required to support research and quality improvement beyond large specialist centres, and methodological work on rare events is indicated. With investment in the development of alternative outcome measures and methodologies, programmes like PUMA could improve mortality and morbidity in paediatrics and other patient populations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-07314-2.

Polypharmacy and Smoking as Potentially Modifiable Risk Factors Associated with Symptom Severity in Men with Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms in Primary Care: Findings from the PriMUS Study

Polypharmacy and smoking are associated with higher symptom severity in men with lower urinary tract symptoms presenting to primary care. These are potentially modifiable risk factors that can be targeted when managing these patients.

nSeP: immune and metabolic biomarkers for early detection of neonatal sepsis-protocol for a prospective multicohort study

INTRODUCTION

Diagnosing neonatal sepsis is heavily dependent on clinical phenotyping as culture-positive body fluid has poor sensitivity, and existing blood biomarkers have poor specificity.A combination of machine learning, statistical and deep pathway biology analyses led to the identification of a tripartite panel of biologically connected immune and metabolic markers that showed greater than 99% accuracy for detecting bacterial infection with 100% sensitivity. The cohort study described here is designed as a large-scale clinical validation of this previous work.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This multicentre observational study will prospectively recruit a total of 1445 newborn infants (all gestations)-1084 with suspected early-or late-onset sepsis, and 361 controls-over 4 years. A small volume of whole blood will be collected from infants with suspected sepsis at the time of presentation. This sample will be used for integrated transcriptomic, lipidomic and targeted proteomics profiling. In addition, a subset of samples will be subjected to cellular phenotype and proteomic analyses. A second sample from the same patient will be collected at 24 hours, with an opportunistic sampling for stool culture. For control infants, only one set of blood and stool sample will be collected to coincide with clinical blood sampling. Along with detailed clinical information, blood and stool samples will be analysed and the information will be used to identify and validate the efficacy of immune-metabolic networks in the diagnosis of bacterial neonatal sepsis and to identify new host biomarkers for viral sepsis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has received research ethics committee approval from the Wales Research Ethics Committee 2 (reference 19/WA/0008) and operational approval from Health and Care Research Wales. Submission of study results for publication will involve making available all anonymised primary and processed data on public repository sites.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03777670.