Dynamic Incidence of Typhoid Fever over a 10-Year Period (2010-2019) in Kibera, an Urban Informal Settlement in Nairobi, Kenya

Typhoid fever burden can vary over time. Long-term data can inform prevention strategies; however, such data are lacking in many African settings. We reexamined typhoid fever incidence and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) over a 10-year period in Kibera, a densely populated urban informal settlement where a high burden has been previously described. We used data from the Population Based Infectious Diseases Surveillance platform to estimate crude and adjusted incidence rates and prevalence of AMR in nearly 26,000 individuals of all ages. Demographic and healthcare-seeking information was collected through household visits. Blood cultures were processed for patients with acute fever or lower respiratory infection. Between 2010 and 2019, 16,437 participants were eligible for blood culture and 11,848 (72.1%) had a culture performed. Among 11,417 noncontaminated cultures (96.4%), 237 grew Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (2.1%). Overall crude and adjusted incidences were 95 and 188 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation (pyo), respectively. Annual crude incidence varied from 144 to 233 between 2010 and 2012 and from 9 to 55 between 2013 and 2018 and reached 130 per 100,000 pyo in 2019. Children 5-9 years old had the highest overall incidence (crude, 208; adjusted, 359 per 100,000 pyo). Among isolates tested, 156 of 217 were multidrug resistant (resistant to chloramphenicol, ampicillin, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole [71.9%]) and 6 of 223 were resistant to ciprofloxacin (2.7%). Typhoid fever incidence resurged in 2019 after a prolonged period of low rates, with the highest incidence among children. Typhoid fever control measures, including vaccines, could reduce morbidity in this setting.

Metaphors in Mentalization-Based Treatment: Reintroducing the Language of Change in “Plain Old Therapy”

Metaphors, a central conduit of change in psychotherapy, have not been taken adequately into account in Mentalization-Based Treatment (MBT). Despite successfully utilized by other evidence-based treatments for borderline personality disorder (BPD), MBT considers metaphors confusing for patients with low mentalizing abilities. For metaphors and teaching stories to stimulate growth within the window of tolerance, interventions should be responsively tailored (e.g., explained). Metaphors might be a route to making spoken matter more apprehensible, and bridge emotions with cognitive content. They hold the potential for challenging without being too confronting, and to translate knowledge between different range of understanding. This theoretical article presents why the use of metaphors in MBT—in the hands of a responsive therapists—may prove a powerful tool to open social trust, despite being considered a “high risk” intervention. The timeless lens of the metaphor may help us connect with archetypical versions of our own narratives, hence understanding our subjectivity in a larger perspective. By reaching towards concepts beyond our normal reasoning, typically denoted perennial philosophy or wisdom, they may substitute and/or supplement mentors in a memorable way.

LDL cholesterol level as a risk factor for retinopathy and nephropathy in children and adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Microvascular complications are common in people with diabetes, where poor glycaemic control is the major contributor. The aim of this study was to explore the association between elevated LDL cholesterol levels and the risk of retinopathy or nephropathy in young individuals with type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

This was a nationwide observational population-based cohort study, including all children and adults with a duration of type 1 diabetes of ≤ 10 years, identified in the Swedish National Diabetes Register between 1998 and 2017. We calculated the crude incidence rates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and used multivariable Cox regression to estimate crude and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of retinopathy or nephropathy in four LDL cholesterol categories: <2.6 (Reference), 2.6-3.4, 3.4-4.1 and > 4.1 mmol L^-1 .

RESULTS

In total, 11 024/12 350 (retinopathy/nephropathy, both cohorts, respectively) children and adults (median age 21 years, female 42%) were followed up to 28 years from diagnosis until end of study. Median duration of diabetes when entering the study was 6 and 7 years in the retinopathy and nephropathy cohort, respectively. Median LDL cholesterol was 2.4 mmol L^-1 , and median HbA1c level was 61 mmol mol^-1 (7.7 %). After multivariable adjustment, the HRs (95% CI) for retinopathy in individuals with LDL cholesterol levels of 2.6-3.4, 3.4-4.1 or > 4.1 mmol L^-1 were as follows: 1.13 (1.03-1.23), 1.16 (1.02-1.32) and 1.18 (0.99-1.41), compared with the reference. The corresponding numbers for nephropathy were as follows: 1.15 (0.96-1.32), 1.30 (1.03-1.65) and 1.41 (1.06-1.89).

CONCLUSIONS

Young individuals with type 1 diabetes exposed to high LDL cholesterol levels have an increased risk of retinopathy and nephropathy independent of glycaemia and other identified risk factors for vascular complications.

281. Detecting bacterial sepsis among allogeneic HCT recipients with population-specific bedside tools

Background

Diagnosing sepsis among allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (aHCT) recipients remains challenging. Existing criteria, for use in hospitalized patients, have limited predictive accuracy among aHCT recipients and their use may lead to missed events or antibiotic overuse. We developed bedside bacterial sepsis prediction tools (criteria and decision tree [DT]) for aHCT recipients and compared them against Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and National Early Warning Score (NEWS) criteria.

Methods

Adult aHCT recipients transplanted between September 2010–2019 with ≥ 1 potential infection (PI) within 100 days post-transplantation were randomly assigned to model/validation (7/3) cohorts. Tools included demographic and clinical factors and were built against a bacterial sepsis endpoint (gram-negative, Staphylococcus aureus, or Streptococcus species bacteremia). The tools were developed using best subset selection with rare event logistic regression (criteria) and classification tree (DT) algorithms. Criteria scores were estimated using a beta/10 integer weighting approach and tool predictive performances were compared against existing criteria.

Results

Between September 2010–2019, 1571 recipients with ≥ 1 PI contributed 7755 PIs and 238 sepsis events. The DT model included 7 terminal nodes based on 3 predictors: temperature, respiratory rate (RR), and sex. The criteria model contained 10 categories with 4 predictors: RR, temperature, pulse, and diastolic blood pressure (Figure 1). Our criteria and DT had AUCs of 71.1% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 64.3, 77.9%) and 70.0% (CI: 63.7, 76.2%). SIRS had the highest AUC of existing criteria – 64.7% (CI: 57.1, 71.9%). Our criteria had the highest net benefit (for probabilities < 10%) and, at a 7+ cut-point, had a sensitivity of 73.8% (CI: 61.5–84.0%) and specificity of 55.0% (CI: 52.9, 57.1%) (Figure 2).

Conclusion

We developed aHCT recipient-specific bedside bacterial sepsis prediction tools with higher AUCs than existing criteria. Tools targeted to high-risk populations may lead to fewer missed sepsis events and, in turn, reduce sepsis related mortality among this high-risk population.

Disclosures

Steven A. Pergam, MD, MPH, Chimerix, Inc (Scientific Research Study Investigator)Global Life Technologies, Inc. (Research Grant or Support)Merck & Co. (Scientific Research Study Investigator)Sanofi-Aventis (Other Financial or Material Support, Participate in clinical trial sponsored by NIAID (U01-AI132004); vaccines for this trial are provided by Sanofi-Aventis)

Sexually transmitted infections among women randomised to depot medroxyprogesterone acetate, a copper intrauterine device or a levonorgestrel implant

Objectives

Reproductive aged women are at risk of pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections (STI). Understanding drivers of STI acquisition, including any association with widely used contraceptives, could help us to reduce STI prevalence and comorbidities. We compared the risk of STI among women randomised to three contraceptive methods.

Methods

We conducted a secondary analysis to assess the risk of chlamydia and gonorrhoea in a clinical trial evaluating HIV risk among 7829 women aged 16–35 randomised to intramuscular depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA-IM), a copper intrauterine device (IUD) or a levonorgestrel (LNG) implant. We estimated chlamydia and gonorrhoea prevalences by contraceptive group and prevalence ratios (PR) using log-binomial regression.

Results

At baseline, chlamydia and gonorrhoea prevalences were 18% and 5%, respectively. Final visit chlamydia prevalence did not differ significantly between DMPA-IM and copper IUD groups or between copper IUD and LNG implant groups. The DMPA-IM group had significantly lower risk of chlamydia compared with the LNG implant group (PR 0.83, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.95). Final visit gonorrhoea prevalence differed significantly only between the DMPA-IM and the copper IUD groups (PR 0.67, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.87).

Conclusions

The findings suggest that chlamydia and gonorrhoea risk may vary with contraceptive method use. Further investigation is warranted to better understand the mechanisms of chlamydia and gonorrhoea susceptibility in the context of contraceptive use.

Effect of liraglutide on anthropometric measurements, sagittal abdominal diameter and adiponectin levels in people with type 2 diabetes treated with multiple daily insulin injections: evaluations from a randomized trial (MDI-liraglutide study 5)

AIM

Use of the glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist liraglutide has been shown to reduce weight. Different types of anthropometric measurements can be used to measure adiposity. This study evaluated the effect of liraglutide on sagittal abdominal diameter, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio and adiponectin levels in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) treated with multiple daily insulin injections (MDI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In the multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled MDI-liraglutide trial, 124 individuals with T2D treated with MDI were randomized to either liraglutide or placebo. Basal values of weight, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, sagittal abdominal diameter and adiponectin were compared with measurements at 12 and 24 weeks after randomization.

RESULTS

Baseline-adjusted mean weight loss was 3.8 ± 2.9 kg greater in liraglutide than placebo-treated individuals (p < 0.0001). Waist circumference was reduced by 2.9 ± 4.3 cm and 0.2 ± 3.6 cm in the liraglutide and placebo groups, respectively, after 24 weeks (baseline-adjusted mean difference: 2.6 ± 4.0 cm, p = 0.0005). Corresponding reductions in sagittal abdominal diameter were 1.1 ± 1.7 cm and 0.0 ± 1.8 cm (baseline-adjusted mean difference: 1.1 ± 1.7 cm, p = 0.0008). Hip circumference was reduced in patients randomized to liraglutide (baseline-adjusted mean difference between treatment groups: 2.8 ± 3.8 cm, p = 0.0001), but there was no significant difference between the groups in either waist-to-hip ratio (baseline-adjusted mean difference: 0.0 ± 0.04 cm, p = 0.51) or adiponectin levels (baseline-adjusted mean difference: 0.8 ± 3.3 mg L-1, p = 0.17). Lower HbA1c and mean glucose levels measured by masked continuous glucose monitoring at baseline were associated with greater effects of liraglutide on reductions in waist circumference and sagittal abdominal diameter.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with T2D, adding liraglutide to MDI may reduce abdominal and hip obesity to a similar extent, suggesting an effect on both visceral and subcutaneous fat. Liraglutide had greater effects on reducing abdominal obesity in patients with less pronounced long-term hyperglycaemia but did not affect adiponectin levels.

The inter- and intrarater reliability and agreement for field-based assessment of scapular control, shoulder range of motion, and shoulder isometric strength in elite adolescent athletes

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the intra- and interrater reliability and agreement for field-based assessment of scapular control, shoulder range of motion (ROM), and shoulder isometric strength in elite youth athletes.

DESIGN

Test-retest reliability and agreement study.

SETTING

Eight blinded raters (two for each assessment) assessed players on field during two testing sessions separated by one week.

PARTICIPANTS

162 elite youth handball players with or without a history of previous shoulder pain within the preceding six months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Kappa (κ) and prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK) coefficients for scapular control reliability, and 95% limits of agreement (LOA) for ROM and strength agreement.

RESULTS

Scapular control demonstrated substantial to almost perfect reliability (κ 0.67 to 0.84, PABAK from 0.68 to 0.88). Mean strength values ranged from 0.9 N/kg to 1.6 N/kg, and LOAs ranged from -0.7 N/kg to 0.8 N/kg. Rotational strength revealed additionally systematic bias between and within rater. No or acceptable systematic bias were evident for ROM and abduction strength measures. Mean values and LOAs for ROM ranged between 39.9° to 52.3°, and from -12.6° to 9.9°, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Scapular control and ROM can be assessed on the field with acceptable reliability. The threshold for reliable measurements of isometric strength using handheld-dynamometers is high.

The SMS, Phone, and medical Examination sports injury surveillance system is a feasible and valid approach to measuring handball exposure, injury occurrence, and consequences in elite youth sport

Current methods of sports injury surveillance are limited by lack of medical validation of self-reported injuries and/or incomplete information about injury consequences beyond time loss from sport. The aims of this study were to (a) evaluate the feasibility of the SMS, Phone, and medical Examination injury surveillance (SPEx) system (b) to evaluate the proportion of injuries and injury consequences reported by SPEx when compared to outcomes from a modified version of the Oslo Sports Trauma Research Centre (OSTRC) Overuse Injury Questionnaire. We followed 679 elite adolescent handball players over 31 weeks using the SPEx system. During the last 7 weeks, we also implemented a modified OSTRC questionnaire in a subgroup of 271 players via telephone interviews. The weekly response proportions to the primary SPEx questions ranged from 85% to 96% (mean 92%). SMS responses were received from 79% of the participants within 1 day. 95% of reported injuries were classified through the telephone interview within a week, and 67% were diagnosed by medical personnel. Comparisons between reported injuries from SPEx and OSTRC demonstrated fair (κ = 39.5% [25.1%-54.0%]) to substantial prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK = 66.8% [95% CI 58.0%-75.6%]) agreement. The average injury severity score difference between SPEx and the OSTRC approach was -0.2 (95% CI -3.69-3.29) of possible 100 with 95% limits of agreement from(-14.81-14.41). These results support the feasibility and validity of the SPEx injury surveillance system in elite youth sport. Future studies should evaluate the external validity of SPEx system in different cohorts of athletes.

Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

METHODS

We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015.

INTERPRETATION

This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk factors for diabetic macular oedema in type 2 diabetes: A case-control study in a United Kingdom primary care setting

AIM

To identify risk factors associated with the development of DMO among patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes managed in a primary care setting in the UK.

METHODS

A case-control study nested in a cohort of incident Type 2 diabetes identified in The Health Improvement Network database from 2000-2007. Cases were people with DMO (N=211) and controls were a DMO-free sample (N=2194). No age restrictions were applied. Adjusted odds ratios and 95%CIs were estimated (OR; 95%CI).

RESULTS

DMO increased with high alcohol use (2.88; 1.49-5.55), cataracts (4.10; 2.73-6.15), HbA1c ≥7% (1.58; 1.08-2.32), systolic blood pressure ≥160mm Hg (2.03; 1.17-3.53), total cholesterol ≥5mmol/L (1.66; 1.15-2.39), LDL ≥3mmol/L (1.73; 1.14-2.61), and microalbuminuria (1.78; 1.16-2.73). Diuretic drugs were associated with a reduced risk of DMO (0.68; 0.47-0.99), as did smoking (0.47; 0.28-0.77), overweight (0.53; 0.30-0.96) or obesity (0.52; 0.30-0.91) at diabetes diagnosis, and high triglyceride levels (0.51; 0.35-0.74). Patients treated with anti-diabetic drugs showed higher risk of DMO than non-treated patients, particularly those with sulphonylureas (3.40; 2.42-4.78), insulin (3.21; 1.92-5.36) or glitazones (1.88; 1.17-3.04).

CONCLUSION

In patients with type 2 diabetes managed in primary care, multiple factors associated with DMO were identified, such as cataracts, microalbuminuria and high levels of HbA1c, systolic BP, total cholesterol, and LDL. Diuretic drugs were associated with a reduced risk of DMO. Treated diabetes, particularly with sulphonylureas, insulin or glitazones showed highest risk of DMO. The inverse association between smoking, obesity, and triglycerides and DMO deserves further research.

Long-term excess risk of stroke in people with Type 2 diabetes in Sweden according to blood pressure level: a population-based case-control study

AIMS

To estimate the risk of stroke in people with Type 2 diabetes with different blood pressure levels compared with the risk in the general population in Sweden.

METHODS

This prospective case-control study included 408 076 people with Type 2 diabetes, aged ≥ 18 years, and free of prior stroke, registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register 1998-2011. Age- and sex-matched control subjects (n = 1 913 507) without stroke from the general population were included. Stroke diagnoses were retrieved using International Classification of Disease codes from the Swedish patient and death registers. Cox hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated at six different blood pressure levels.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 4 years, 19 548 (4.8%) people with Type 2 diabetes and 61 690 (3.2%) without diabetes were diagnosed with stroke, corresponding to an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.43 (95% CI 1.41-1.46) for people with Type 2 diabetes as a group. Compared with people without diabetes, the risk of stroke for people with Type 2 diabetes with different blood pressure levels was significantly higher, starting at blood pressure levels > 130/80 mmHg. Hazard ratios for stroke were 1.20 (95% CI 1.16-1.24), 1.47 (95% CI 1.43-1.50), and 1.97 (95% CI 1.90-2.03) for blood pressure categories of 130-139/80-89 mmHg, 140-159/90-99 mmHg and ≥ 160/≥ 100 mmHg, respectively, after adjustment for age, sex, diabetes duration, being born in Sweden, maximum education level and baseline comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

People with Type 2 diabetes and blood pressure < 130/80 mmHg had a risk of stroke similar to that of the general population.

Validity of the SMS, Phone, and medical staff Examination sports injury surveillance system for time-loss and medical attention injuries in sports

The accurate measurement of sport exposure time and injury occurrence is key to effective injury prevention and management. Current measures are limited by their inability to identify all types of sport-related injury, narrow scope of injury information, or lack the perspective of the injured athlete. The aims of the study were to evaluate the proportion of injuries and the agreement between sport exposures reported by the SMS messaging and follow-up telephone part of the SMS, Phone, and medical staff Examination (SPEx) sports injury surveillance system when compared to measures obtained by trained on-field observers and medical staff (comparison method). We followed 24 elite adolescent handball players over 12 consecutive weeks. Eighty-six injury registrations were obtained by the SPEx and comparison methods. Of them, 35 injury registrations (41%) were captured by SPEx only, 10 injury registrations (12%) by the comparison method only, and 41 injury registrations (48%) by both methods. Weekly exposure time differences (95% limits of agreement) between SPEx and the comparison method ranged from -4.2 to 6.3 hours (training) and -1.5 to 1.0 hours (match) with systematic differences being 1.1 hours (95% CI 0.7 to 1.4) and -0.2 (95% CI -0.3 to -0.2), respectively. These results support the ability of the SPEx system to measure training and match exposures and injury occurrence among young athletes. High weekly response proportions (mean 83%) indicate that SMS messaging can be used for player measures of injury consequences beyond time-loss from sport. However, this needs to be further evaluated in large-scale studies.

Glycaemic control and excess risk of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke in patients with type 1 diabetes: a cohort study of 33 453 patients

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the excess risk of stroke in relation to glycaemic control in patients with type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

In this prospective, matched cohort study, we identified patients with type 1 diabetes, aged ≥18 years, who were registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register from 1998-2011 and five control subjects for each case from the general population, matched for age, sex and county of residence. The risks of all strokes, ischaemic stroke and haemorrhagic stroke were estimated using Cox hazard regression.

RESULTS

Of 33 453 type 1 diabetes patients [mean age, 35.5 (SD 14.4) years; mean follow-up, 7.9 (SD 4.3) years; and mean diabetes duration, 20.2 years (SD 14.6)], 762 (2.3%) were diagnosed with stroke compared with 1122 (0.7%) of 159 924 control subjects [mean follow-up, 8.2 (SD 4.3) years]. The overall multiple-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for type 1 diabetes patients versus control subjects were 3.29 (95% CI: 2.96-3.66) and 2.49 (95% CI: 1.96-3.16) for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, respectively. The risk of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incrementally increased with increasing HbA1c; the risk of ischaemic stroke was significantly increased with HbA1c within target [≤6.9% (≤52 mmol mol^-1 )] [multiple-adjusted HR 1.89 (95% CI: 1.44-2.47)]. For HbA1c ≥9.7% (≥83 mmol mol^-1 ), there was a markedly increased risk of both ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, with multiple-adjusted HRs of 7.94 (95% CI: 6.29-10.03) and 8.17 (95% CI 5.00-13.35), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with type 1 diabetes have an increased risk of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, increasing markedly with poor glycaemic control.

Changes in HbA1c and circulating and adipose tissue androgen levels in overweight-obese women with polycystic ovary syndrome in response to electroacupuncture

Aim

Insulin sensitivity is ~40% lower in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) than in controls. We tested the hypothesis that 5 weeks of electroacupuncture treatment improves glucose regulation and androgen levels in overweight/obese women with PCOS.

Material and Methods

Seventeen women with PCOS, aged 18 to 38 years, with a body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m² and diagnosed with PCOS were included in this experimental and feasibility study and subjected to five weeks of electroacupuncture treatments three times/week. The primary outcome was changes in whole‐body glucose homeostasis measured by euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp before and after the intervention. Secondary outcome were changes in HbA_1c, circulating catecholamines, adipocyte size and adipose tissue expression of sex steroids and nerve growth factor (NGF).

Results

No significant change in glucose homeostasis was observed, but HbA_1c decreased by 9.5% (p = 0.004), circulating testosterone decreased by 22% (p = 0.0007) and dihydrotestosterone decreased by 12% (p = 0.007). The two vagal activity markers of plasma serotonin levels and the dopamine metabolite homovanillic acid decreased by 21% (p = 0.027) and 20% (p = 0.011), respectively. Adipose tissue concentrations of testosterone decreased by 18% (p = 0.049), and androstenedione decreased by 13% (p = 0.035), and mature NGF/proNGF ratio, a marker of sympathetic activity, increased (p = 0.04). These changes occurred without changes in anthropometrics.

Conclusion

Five weeks of electroacupuncture treatment improves HbA_1c and circulating and adipose tissue androgens in women with PCOS. This effect is mediated, at least in part, via modulation of vagal activity and adipose tissue sympathetic activity. Based on these findings, we have recently initiated a randomized controlled study (NTC02647827).

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Under-5 mortality in 2851 Chinese counties, 1996-2012: a subnational assessment of achieving MDG 4 goals in China

BACKGROUND

In the past two decades, the under-5 mortality rate in China has fallen substantially, but progress with regards to the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 at the subnational level has not been quantified. We aimed to estimate under-5 mortality rates in mainland China for the years 1970 to 2012.

METHODS

We estimated the under-5 mortality rate for 31 provinces in mainland China between 1970 and 2013 with data from censuses, surveys, surveillance sites, and disease surveillance points. We estimated under-5 mortality rates for 2851 counties in China from 1996 to 2012 with the reported child mortality numbers from the Annual Report System on Maternal and Child Health. We used a small area mortality estimation model, spatiotemporal smoothing, and Gaussian process regression to synthesise data and generate consistent provincial and county-level estimates. We compared progress at the county level with what was expected on the basis of income and educational attainment using an econometric model. We computed Gini coefficients to study the inequality of under-5 mortality rates across counties.

FINDINGS

In 2012, the lowest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was about five per 1000 livebirths, lower than in Canada, New Zealand, and the USA. The highest provincial level under-5 mortality rate in China was higher than that of Bangladesh. 29 provinces achieved a decrease in under-5 mortality rates twice as fast as the MDG 4 target rate; only two provinces will not achieve MDG 4 by 2015. Although some counties in China have under-5 mortality rates similar to those in the most developed nations in 2012, some have similar rates to those recorded in Burkina Faso and Cameroon. Despite wide differences, the inter-county Gini coefficient has been decreasing. Improvement in maternal education and the economic boom have contributed to the fall in child mortality; more than 60% of the counties in China had rates of decline in under-5 mortality rates significantly faster than expected. Fast reduction in under-5 mortality rates have been recorded not only in the Han population, the dominant ethnic majority in China, but also in the minority populations. All top ten minority groups in terms of population sizes have experienced annual reductions in under-5 mortality rates faster than the MDG 4 target at 4.4%.

INTERPRETATION

The reduction of under-5 mortality rates in China at the country, provincial, and county level is an extraordinary success story. Reductions of under-5 mortality rates faster than 8.8% (twice MDG 4 pace) are possible. Extremely rapid declines seem to be related to public policy in addition to socioeconomic progress. Lessons from successful counties should prove valuable for China to intensify efforts for those with unacceptably high under-5 mortality rates.

FUNDING

National "Twelfth Five-Year" Plan for Science and Technology Support, National Health and Family Planning Commission of The People's Republic of China, Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University, the National Institute on Aging, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trends in arthroscopy-documented cartilage injuries of the knee and repair procedures among 15-60-year-old patients

We validated a registry-based method of identifying patients with knee cartilage injury and estimated temporal changes in the incidence of arthroscopy-documented cartilage injuries of the knee and the proportion leading to repair procedures in Denmark. After excluding patients with diagnosed osteoarthritis, we identified 21,392 patients aged 15-60 years with a first recorded procedure code indicating knee cartilage injury in the Danish National Registry of Patients (DNRP) from 1996 to 2011. Using the surgical descriptions of arthroscopy findings in medical records as gold standard, the positive and negative predictive value of procedure codes for knee cartilage injury was 88% and 99%, respectively. The arthroscopy-documented overall incidence of cartilage injury of the knee was 40/100,000 person-years (py) [95% confidence interval (CI): 39.5-40.6] during the period 1996-2011. The arthroscopy-documented age-standardized annual incidence of knee cartilage injury increased from 22 (95% CI: 20.5-23.7) in 1996 to 61 (95% CI: 58.7-64.0) in 2011, per 100,000 py. An increase occurred in all age groups and both sexes. Only 1/6 (17%) patients with knee cartilage injury had a repair procedure. The validity of procedure codes for knee cartilage injury in the DNRP is high. The arthroscopy-documented incidence of knee cartilage injuries increased substantially during the 15-year period.

The association between BMI and hospitalization for heart failure in 83,021 persons with Type 2 diabetes: a population-based study from the Swedish National Diabetes Registry

AIM'S

The aim was to To study the relationship between BMI and hospitalization for heart failure in people with Type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We identified 83 021 individuals with Type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Registry during 1998-2003, who were followed until hospitalization for heart failure, death or end of follow-up on 31 December 2009. Cox regression analyses were performed, adjusting for age, sex, HbA(1c), blood pressure, diabetes duration, smoking, microalbuminuria, cardiac co-morbidities, glucose-lowering and anti-hypertensive medications.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 7.2 years, 10 969 patients (13.2%) were hospitalized with heart failure. By categories of BMI, with BMI 20 to < 25 kg/m(2) as the reference, hazard ratios for patients during follow-up were 1.07 (95% CI 0.91-1.26) for a mean BMI of < 20 kg/m(2), 1.04 (95% CI 0.98-1.11) for BMI 25 to < 27.5 kg/m(2), 1.22 (95% CI 1.15-1.30) for BMI 27.5 to < 30 kg/m(2), 1.54 (95% CI 1.45-1.63) for BMI 30 to < 35 kg/m(2), 2.16 (95% CI 2.00-2.33) for BMI 35 to < 40 kg/m(2) and 3.22 (95% CI 2.88-3.60) for BMI 40 kg/m(2) or higher. There was a significant interaction between BMI and sex (P = 0.0006), with numerically higher hazard ratios for hospitalization for heart failure within each BMI category for men than for women.

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity is strongly related to hospitalization for heart failure in people with Type 2 diabetes, and the relationship is somewhat stronger for men than for women. Preventing weight gain and promoting weight loss may be crucial in reducing the incidence of future hospitalizations for heart failure in this population.

Distribution and evolution of het gene homologs in the basidiomycota

In filamentous fungi a system known as somatic incompatibility (SI) governs self/non-self recognition. SI is controlled by a regulatory signaling network involving proteins encoded at the het (heterokaryon incompatible) loci. Despite the wide occurrence of SI, the molecular identity and structure of only a small number of het genes and their products have been characterized in the model fungi Neurospora crassa and Podospora anserina. Our aim was to identify and study the distribution and evolution of putative het gene homologs in the Basidiomycota. For this purpose we used the information available for the model fungi to identify homologs of het genes in other fungi, especially the Basidiomycota. Putative het-c, het-c2 and un-24 homologs, as well as sequences containing the NACHT, HET or WD40 domains present in the het-e, het-r, het-6 and het-d genes were identified in certain members of the Ascomycota and Basidiomycota. The widespread phylogenetic distribution of certain het genes may reflect the fact that the encoded proteins are involved in fundamental cellular processes other than SI. Although homologs of het-S were previously known only from the Sordariomycetes (Ascomycota), we also identified a putative homolog of this gene in Gymnopus luxurians (Basidiomycota, class Agaricomycetes). Furthermore, with the exception of un-24, all of the putative het genes identified occurred mostly in a multi-copy fashion, some with lineage and species-specific expansions. Overall our results indicated that gene duplication followed by gene loss and/or gene family expansion, as well as multiple events of domain fusion and shuffling played an important role in the evolution of het gene homologs of Basidiomycota and other filamentous fungi.

Mortality trends in patients with and without diabetes in Ontario, Canada and the UK from 1996 to 2009: a population-based study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to determine the contemporary rate ratio of mortality and changes over time in individuals with vs without diabetes.

METHODS

Annual age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates were compared for adults (>20 years) with and without diabetes in Ontario, Canada, and the UK from January 1996 to December 2009 using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) and Ontario databases. The total number of individuals evaluated increased from 8,757,772 in 1996 to 12,696,305 in 2009.

RESULTS

The excess risk of mortality for individuals with diabetes in both cohorts was significantly lower during later vs earlier years of the follow-up period (1996-2009). In Ontario the diabetes mortality rate ratio decreased from 1.90 (95% CI 1.86, 1.94) in 1996 to 1.51 (1.48, 1.54) in 2009, and in THIN from 2.14 (1.97, 2.32) to 1.65 (1.57, 1.72), respectively. In Ontario and THIN, the mortality rate ratios among diabetic patients in 2009 were 1.67 (1.61, 1.72) and 1.81 (1.68, 1.94) for those aged 65-74 years and 1.11 (1.10, 1.13) and 1.19 (1.14, 1.24) for those aged over 74 years, respectively. Corresponding rate ratios in Ontario and THIN were 2.45 (2.36, 2.54) and 2.64 (2.39, 2.89) for individuals aged 45-64 years, and 4.89 (4.35, 5.45) and 5.18 (3.73, 6.69) for those aged 20-44 years.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The excess risk of mortality in individuals with vs without diabetes has decreased over time in both Canada and the UK. This may be in part due to earlier detection and higher prevalence of early diabetes, as well as to improvements in diabetes care.

Isolation of native soil microorganisms with potential for breaking down biodegradable plastic mulch films used in agriculture

Fungi native to agricultural soils that colonized commercially available biodegradable mulch (BDM) films were isolated and assessed for potential to degrade plastics. Typically, when formulations of plastics are known and a source of the feedstock is available, powdered plastic can be suspended in agar-based media and degradation determined by visualization of clearing zones. However, this approach poorly mimics in situ degradation of BDMs. First, BDMs are not dispersed as small particles throughout the soil matrix. Secondly, BDMs are not sold commercially as pure polymers, but rather as films containing additives (e.g. fillers, plasticizers and dyes) that may affect microbial growth. The procedures described herein were used for isolates acquired from soil-buried mulch films. Fungal isolates acquired from excavated BDMs were tested individually for growth on pieces of new, disinfested BDMs laid atop defined medium containing no carbon source except agar. Isolates that grew on BDMs were further tested in liquid medium where BDMs were the sole added carbon source. After approximately ten weeks, fungal colonization and BDM degradation were assessed by scanning electron microscopy. Isolates were identified via analysis of ribosomal RNA gene sequences. This report describes methods for fungal isolation, but bacteria also were isolated using these methods by substituting media appropriate for bacteria. Our methodology should prove useful for studies investigating breakdown of intact plastic films or products for which plastic feedstocks are either unknown or not available. However our approach does not provide a quantitative method for comparing rates of BDM degradation.

Infrequent attention to dietary and physical activity behaviours in conversations in Swedish child health services

AIM

To investigate conversations between nurses and parents in Swedish child health services and to assess to what extent attention is directed towards dietary and physical activity behaviours in children.

METHODS

Twenty-three nurses audio-recorded one session each. Recordings were assessed and topics were classified according to predetermined categories.

RESULTS

The three most frequent topics of conversation concerned physical examinations of the child (30% of session time), talking to the child to establish or maintain contact and interest (15%), and development of language skills (12%). Dietary habits came on fourth place (10%), and physical activity ranked 14 (4%).

CONCLUSION

Attention to dietary and physical activity behaviours in children is infrequent in Swedish child health services. Concern is raised about the efficacy of prevention efforts against childhood obesity.

The relationship between glycaemic control and heart failure in 83,021 patients with type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between glycaemic control and hospitalisation for heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Patients included in the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR) during 1998-2003 were followed until hospitalisation for heart failure, death or 31 December 2009. Unadjusted and adjusted incidence rates for heart failure were estimated by Poisson regression and relative risk was estimated by Cox regression.

RESULTS

In 83,021 patients with type 2 diabetes, 10,969 (13.2%) were hospitalised with a primary or secondary diagnosis of heart failure during a mean follow-up of 7.2 years. The incidence increased by male sex (p < 0.001), older age (p < 0.001) and longer diabetes duration (p < 0.001). In Cox regression adjusting for risk factors of heart failure the HR per each percentage unit higher HbA(1c) (10 mmol/mol) for heart-failure hospitalisation was 1.12 (95% CI 1.10, 1.14). By category of HbA(1c) the HR for heart failure hospitalisation was: HbA(1c) 6.0 to <7.0% (42 to <53 mmol/mol), 0.91 (95% CI 0.84, 0.98); HbA(1c) 7.0 to <8.0% (53 to <64 mmol/mol), 0.99 (95% CI 0.91, 1.07); HbA(1c) 8.0 to <9.0% (64 to < 75 mmol/mol), 1.10 (95% CI 1.01, 1.20); HbA(1c) 9.0 to <10.0% (75 to <86 mmol/mol), 1.27 (95% CI 1.15, 1.41); HbA(1c) ≥ 10.0 % (≥ 86 mmol/mol), 1.71 (1.51, 1.93) (reference HbA(1c) <6% [42 mmol/mol]). The HR for patients with HbA(1c) 7.0 to <8.0% (53 to < 64 mmol/mol) compared with patients with HbA(1c) 6.0 to <7.0% (42 to <53 mmol/mol) was 1.09 (95% CI 1.03, 1.14).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Poor glycaemic control (HbA(1c) >7% [53 mmol/mol]) is associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation for heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Availability of insulin pump therapy in clinical practice

AIM

To examine the availability of insulin pump therapy in patients with Type 1 diabetes.

METHODS

Patients using insulin pumps among a cohort of 7224 patients with Type 1 diabetes were studied.

RESULTS

In logistic regression, used to evaluate variables not changing over time among the total cohort, use of insulin pumps varied by outpatient clinic (P<0.001) and sex (P<0.001). Cox regression analysis in 5854 patients with detailed patient data prior to use of an insulin pump showed higher HbA(1c) (P<0.0001), lower creatinine (P=0.002), high and low insulin doses (P<0.0001), younger age (P<0.0001) and female sex (P<0.0001) to be associated with use of an insulin pump. Women were 1.5-fold more likely to start using an insulin pump (hazard ratio 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.29-1.79) and patients in the 20- to 30-years age range were more than twice as likely to begin use of an insulin pump than patients aged 40-50 years (hazard ratio 8.63, 95% confidence interval 5.91-12.59 and hazard ratio 3.98, 95% confidence interval 2.80-5.64, respectively). A 10-μmol/l higher level of creatinine was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.56 (95% confidence interval 0.39-0.81) of starting use of an insulin pump.

CONCLUSIONS

At 10 hospital outpatient clinics in Sweden, use of insulin pumps therapy varied by clinic. A higher proportion of women began using insulin pumps. Younger patients and patients with fewer complications were also more likely to start using an insulin pump. Further research is needed to confirm these findings in other geographical regions and to understand whether the availability of insulin pumps today is optimized.

Von Willebrand factor predicts major bleeding and mortality during oral anticoagulant treatment

AIMS

Oral anticoagulation (OAC), predominantly with warfarin, is an effective treatment to prevent thromboembolic events. Serious bleeding is a frequent and feared treatment complication. In this longitudinal cohort study of OAC-treated patients, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between von Willebrand factor (VWF) levels and risk of bleeding complications, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 719 patients receiving warfarin treatment were observed for a mean duration of 4.2 years. All bleeding complications causing hospitalization were registered and classified into clinically relevant bleeding (CRB) and major bleeding. Ischaemic stroke, peripheral arterial embolism, myocardial infarction, and death were also recorded. We identified 113 cases of CRB and 73 of major bleeding. In total, 161 deaths occurred during follow-up with cardiovascular disease identified as the cause of death in 110 patients. Patients in the highest tertile of VWF had a significantly increased risk of bleeding complications: hazard ratio (HR) 2.53 (95% CI 1.41-4.56) for major bleeding and HR 2.19 (95% CI 1.38-3.48) for CRB. VWF, expressed either in tertiles or as a continuous variable, showed a significant association with cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.40-2.01) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.52-2.05). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, the findings remained significant after adjusting for age, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and creatinine.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with high levels of VWF had an increased risk of bleeding complications, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality during OAC treatment. Our findings imply that the use of VWF as a risk marker for thromboembolic events is complicated by the association of VWF with bleeding complications.

Mechanical stability of the femoral fixation for single- and double-bundle ACL reconstruction in an in vitro experimental model

Anterior cruciate ligament ACL reconstruction using the double-bundle (DB) technique is gaining popularity. A possible weak link in the DB technique could be that two tendon grafts of smaller diameters are used. The purpose of this study was to test different femoral fixation methods and graft diameters representing single-bundle (SB) and DB ACL reconstructions and compare their biomechanical properties. We hypothesized that SB 6-mm graft constructs had inferior biomechanical properties than SB 9-mm grafts or DB 2 × 6-mm grafts. Furthermore, we hypothesized that interference (IF) screw fixation would demonstrate less elongation and a higher stiffness than Endobutton (Smith & Nephew®, Inc., Andover, Massachusetts, USA) fixation (EBF). We performed an in vitro study using porcine knees and extensor tendons. The mechanical test consisted of a cyclic test followed by a load-to-failure test. We found that 6-mm graft constructs had an ultimate failure load that was up to 40% less than both the 9-mm and 2 × 6-mm graft constructs, despite the fixation method (P-values ≥ 0.004). Comparing fixation methods, EBF was superior to IF concerning maximum load to failure (P < 0.001); IF resulted in a higher stiffness of the femur/graft complex than the EBF (P < 0.001) but no significant difference in elongation between fixation methods. Since the two graft strands are subjected to different loads in different knee flexion angles, the reduced strength of the individual graft strands in DB ACL reconstruction could be a concern.

A phase II trial evaluating two schedules of sagopilone (ZK-EPO), a novel epothilone, in patients with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer

BACKGROUND

Sagopilone, the first fully synthetic epothilone, has shown promising preclinical activity in tumour models. This open-label randomised phase II study investigated two infusion schedules of sagopilone in women with ovarian cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Women with ovarian cancer recurring within 6 months of end of last platinum-containing treatment received sagopilone 16 mg/m(2) as a 3- or 0.5-h i.v. infusion every 21 days for up to 6 weeks.

RESULTS

Sixty-three patients received sagopilone as a 3-h (n=38) or 0.5-h (n=25) infusion. There were nine confirmed tumour responses [by modified RECIST (n=8) and by Gynecologic Cancer Intergroup CA-125 criteria (n=1)] in 57 patients assessable for efficacy overall [three (13%) with 0.5-h and six (18%) with 3-h infusions]. The 0.5-h arm was closed when it failed to meet its target efficacy. Main drug-related adverse events were peripheral sensory neuropathy (73%; 16% grade 3), nausea (37%; 2% grade 3), fatigue (35%; 3% grade 3) and arthralgia (30%; 5% grade 3). Overall incidence of peripheral sensory neuropathy was similar in both treatment arms, with no grade 4 neuropathy events. No acute allergic infusion reactions were observed.

CONCLUSION

Sagopilone is effective, with balanced tolerability, in patients with recurrent platinum-resistant ovarian cancer.

The combination of radiostereometric analysis and the telos stress device results in poor precision for knee laxity measurements after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction

PURPOSE

Several devices for measuring knee laxity following anterior cruciate ligament ACL reconstruction exist, but the precision of the methods has never been optimal. Therefore, a new standardized protocol (NSP) was made, aiming at ensuring a reliable positioning of the Telos Stress Device (TSD) which theoretically could result in precise knee laxity measurements when using radiostereometric analysis (RSA) in combination with TSD.

METHOD

The TSD was applied to the knee of 30 healthy persons, using both the NSP and the official company instructions. The position of the stress arms of the TSD was marked following each measurement. The reliability of each protocol was calculated as the difference in length between the first and second markings. The NSP for the TSD was then used in a clinical study. Thirty-five patients underwent ACL reconstruction. Double measurements of knee laxity by RSA were performed at a 3-month follow-up.

RESULTS

Using the NSP for TSD positioning, the prediction interval at the marking sites ranged from ±0.4 to ±1.1 mm. Following the company instructions, the prediction interval ranged from ±0.8 to ±3.9 mm depending on marking site. Thus, the precision of positioning the stress arms of the TSD was improved at all marking sites using the NSP compared with the original company protocol. The double measurements of the knee laxity in the clinical study resulted in a mean difference of 0.0 mm and a prediction interval of ±5.2 mm.

CONCLUSION

Even though the NSP improved the positioning of the TSD on patients' extremities, the combination of NSP-TSD and RSA was not able to provide acceptable knee laxity measurements in a clinical setting compared with published precision data for other devices on the market. Therefore, the Telos Stress Device is not recommendable for use in knee laxity measurements following ACL reconstruction.

The shape of the metabolic memory of HbA1c: re-analysing the DCCT with respect to time-dependent effects

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We determined the shape of the metabolic memory of HbA1c and its contribution to retinopathy, as well as the importance of reducing HbA1c to prevent progression of retinopathy.

METHODS

The relative risk contribution of HbA1c values at different points in time to current progression of retinopathy was determined in the DCCT patients.

RESULTS

HbA1c 2 to 3 years earlier had the greatest relative risk contribution to current progression of retinopathy. HbA1c up to 5 years earlier made a greater contribution than current values, while values from 8 years earlier still had an important impact. When HbA1c had been at 8% for a long period and was subsequently lowered to 7%, the salutary effects did not begin to appear until 2 to 3 years after lowering. The hazard function for a constant level of HbA1c increased with time. The numbers needed to treat when reducing HbA1c from 8.3% to 8% from diagnosis was estimated to be 1,688 for the first 3 years and 13 for the period 9 to 12 years. Survival functions when reducing HbA1c from 8% to 7% show that pre-study glycaemic control dominates the effect on progression of retinopathy during the first years of a trial.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The most harmful effect of hyperglycaemia on progression of retinopathy in type 1 diabetes initially increases, but declines after roughly 5 years. The salutary effect of reducing HbA1c accelerates with time and becomes greater in clinical practice than has been previously understood. Clinical trials should preferably be designed for long periods or include patients with low previous glycaemic exposure to distinguish trial effects from those of the metabolic memory.

Three-dimensional microstructural properties of regenerated mineralizing tissue after PTH (1-34) treatment in a rabbit tibial lengthening model

Since the approval of parathyroid hormone (PTH) as treatment for osteoporosis, PTH has increasingly been investigated for bone repair and regeneration. The aim of the study was to investigate the effects of intermittent PTH treatment on the microstructure of regenerated mineralizing tissue after distraction osteogenesis in rabbits. After tibial mid-diaphyseal osteotomy the callus was distracted 1 mm/day for 10 days. 72 rabbits were divided in to 3 groups, which daily received a PTH (1-34) 25 microg/kg injection for 30 days; a saline injection for 10 days and a PTH injection for 20 days; or a saline injection for 30 days. The microstructure of the regenerate was assessed by micro computed tomography (microCT). In all 51 obtained specimens were evaluated morphometrically using three different volumes of interests. The results showed that treatment with PTH during distraction osteogenesis resulted in a significantly higher trabecular number, a more isotropic trabecular orientation, a higher connectivity density, and a higher mineralizing tissue mass. We also found that distraction calluses treated with PTH were more mature than the non-treated.

CONCLUSION

treatment with PTH resulted in an enhanced microstructure of the newly regenerated mineralizing tissue indicating that PTH has a potential role as a stimulating agent during distraction osteogenesis.

Usability laboratory test of a novel mobile homecare application with experienced home help service staff

Using participatory design, we developed and deployed a mobile Virtual Health Record (VHR) on a personal digital assistant (PDA) together with experienced homecare staff. To assess transferability to a second setting and usability when used by novice users with limited system education the application was tested in a usability lab. Eight participants from another homecare district performed tasks related to daily homecare work using the VHR. Test protocols were analyzed with regard to effectiveness, potential usability problems and user satisfaction. Usability problems having impact on system performance and contextual factors affecting system transferability were uncovered. Questionnaires revealed that the participants frequently used computers, but never PDAs. Surprisingly there were only minor differences in input efficiency between novice and experienced users. The participants were overall satisfied with the application. However, transfer to another district can not be performed, unless by means of careful field observations of contextual differences.

Osteogenic protein-1 increases the fixation of implants grafted with morcellised bone allograft and ProOsteon bone substitute: an experimental study in dogs

Impacted bone allograft is often used in revision joint replacement. Hydroxyapatite granules have been suggested as a substitute or to enhance morcellised bone allograft. We hypothesised that adding osteogenic protein-1 to a composite of bone allograft and non-resorbable hydroxyapatite granules (ProOsteon) would improve the incorporation of bone and implant fixation. We also compared the response to using ProOsteon alone against bone allograft used in isolation. We implanted two non-weight-bearing hydroxyapatite-coated implants into each proximal humerus of six dogs, with each implant surrounded by a concentric 3 mm gap. These gaps were randomly allocated to four different procedures in each dog: 1) bone allograft used on its own; 2) ProOsteon used on its own; 3) allograft and ProOsteon used together; or 4) allograft and ProOsteon with the addition of osteogenic protein-1. After three weeks osteogenic protein-1 increased bone formation and the energy absorption of implants grafted with allograft and ProOsteon. A composite of allograft, ProOsteon and osteogenic protein-1 was comparable, but not superior to, allograft used on its own. ProOsteon alone cannot be recommended as a substitute for allograft around non-cemented implants, but should be used to extend the volume of the graft, preferably with the addition of a growth factor.