Cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin as add-on to standard of care for chronic kidney disease management in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

The sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor empagliflozin was approved for treatment of adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) on the basis of its demonstrated ability to slow CKD progression and reduce the risk of cardiovascular death. This analysis was performed to assess the cost effectiveness of empagliflozin plus standard of care (SoC) versus SoC alone in the treatment of CKD in the UK.

METHODS

A comprehensive, patient-level CKD progression model that simulates the evolution of risk factors for disease progression based on CKD-specific equations and clinical data was used to project a broad range of CKD-related complications. Patient baseline characteristics, distribution across Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) health states, and changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urine albumin-creatinine ratio (uACR), and other parameters while on treatment, were derived from the EMPA-KIDNEY trial. UK cost and utilities/disutilities were sourced from the literature. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Annual discounting of 3.5% was applied on costs and outcomes.

RESULTS

Over a 50-year horizon, SoC resulted in per-patient costs, life years, and QALYs of £95,930, 8.55, and 6.28, respectively. Empagliflozin plus SoC resulted in an incremental gain in life years (+1.04) and QALYs (+0.84), while decreasing per-patient costs by £6,019. Empagliflozin was more effective and less costly (dominant) with a net monetary benefit of £22,849 at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000. Although treatment cost was higher for empagliflozin, this was more than offset by savings in kidney replacement therapy. Empagliflozin remained highly cost-effective in patients with and without diabetes, and across scenario and sensitivity analyses.

LIMITATIONS

This analysis is limited by reliance on short-term clinical trial data and by uncertainties in modelling CKD progression.

CONCLUSIONS

Empagliflozin as an add-on to SoC for treatment of adults with CKD represents cost-effective use of UK National Health Service (NHS) resources.

Cost-effectiveness of weight-management pharmacotherapies in Canada: a societal perspective

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of weight-management pharmacotherapies approved by Canada Health, i.e., orlistat, naltrexone 32 mg/bupropion 360 mg (NB-32), liraglutide 3.0 mg and semaglutide 2.4 mg as compared to the current standard of care (SoC).

METHODS

Analyses were conducted using a cohort with a mean starting age 50 years, body mass index (BMI) 37.5 kg/m2, and 27.6% having type 2 diabetes. Using treatment-specific changes in surrogate endpoints from the STEP trials (BMI, glycemic, blood pressure, lipids), besides a network meta-analysis, the occurrence of weight-related complications, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were projected over lifetime.

RESULTS

From a societal perspective, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of CAD 50 000 per QALY, semaglutide 2.4 mg was the most cost-effective treatment, at an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of CAD 31 243 and CAD 29 014 per QALY gained versus the next best alternative, i.e., orlistat, and SoC, respectively. Semaglutide 2.4 mg extendedly dominated other pharmacotherapies such as NB-32 or liraglutide 3.0 mg and remained cost-effective both under a public and private payer perspective. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses varying post-treatment catch-up rates, longer treatment durations and using real-world cohort characteristics. Semaglutide 2.4 mg was the preferred intervention, with a likelihood of 70% at a WTP threshold of CAD 50 000 per QALY gained. However, when the modeled benefits of weight-loss on cancer, mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) or osteoarthritis surgeries were removed simultaneously, orlistat emerged as the best value for money compared with SoC, with an ICUR of CAD 35 723 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSION

Semaglutide 2.4 mg was the most cost-effective treatment alternative compared with D&E or orlistat alone, and extendedly dominated other pharmacotherapies such as NB-32 or liraglutide 3.0 mg. Results were sensitive to the inclusion of the combined benefits of mortality, cancer, CVD, and knee osteoarthritis.

Cost-effectiveness of semaglutide 2.4 mg in chronic weight management in Portugal

BACKGROUND

Obesity and overweight are a significant public health concern. Subcutaneous semaglutide 2.4 mg injection is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogue approved by the European Medicines Agency as an adjunct to a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity (diet and exercise, D&E) for the treatment obesity and overweight in the presence of at least one weight related comorbidity. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of semaglutide 2.4 mg in combination with D&E compared to D&E alone for the Portuguese setting.

METHODS

Analysis were conducted using the Core Obesity Model (COM) version 18, a Markov state transition cohort model, to predict the health outcomes and costs of weight related complications based on changes in surrogate endpoints. Efficacy and safety data were sourced from the STEP trials (Body Mass Index, systolic blood pressure and glycemic status) from a cohort of adults aged on average 48 years with obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and ≥ 1 obesity-related comorbidities, over a time horizon of 40 years. Costs were estimated from the perspective of the Portuguese National Health Service. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of results across a range of assumptions.

RESULTS

On a patient level, Semaglutide 2.4 mg in addition to D&E compared to D&E alone, improved QALYs by 0.098 and yielded higher costs by 1,325 EUR over a 40-year time horizon, with an ICER of 13,459 EUR per QALY gained and 100% probability of cost-effectiveness at the given WTP. Semaglutide 2.4 mg remained cost-effective across all different scenarios and sensitivity analysis at a WTP of 20,000 EUR per QALY. Among the subpopulations examined, Semaglutide 2.4 mg yielded ICERs of 18,459 EUR for patients with BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 and of 22,657 EUR for patients with BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2.

CONCLUSIONS

Semaglutide 2.4 mg was cost-effective compared to D&E alone for patients with obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and weight related comorbidities in Portugal, over a 40-year time horizon.

Smart connected insulin dose monitoring technologies versus standard of care: a Canadian cost-effectiveness analysis

Aim: There is growing interest in novel insulin management systems that improve glycemic control. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of smart connected insulin re-usable pens or caps for disposable insulin pens versus pens without connected capabilities in the management of adult patients with Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) from a Canadian societal perspective. Materials & methods: The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model was utilized to conduct the analyses. Applying data from a non-interventional study, the connected insulin device arm was assumed to result in greater reductions (-0.67%) in glycated hemoglobin from baseline and fewer non-severe hypoglycemic events (-32.87 events/patient annually). Macro- and micro-vascular risks were predicted using the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications study data. Direct and indirect costs and utilities were sourced from literature. Key model outcomes included life years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Both costs and effects were annually discounted at 1.5% over a 60-year time horizon. Uncertainty was explored in scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA). Results: The connected insulin pen device was associated with lower mean discounted total costs (CAD221,943 vs 266,199; -CAD44,256), improvement in mean life expectancy (25.78 vs 24.29; +1.49 years) and gains in QALYs (18.48 vs 16.74; +1.75 QALYs) over the patient's lifetime. Most scenario analyses confirmed the base case results. The PSA showed dominance in 99.5% of cases. Conclusion: For adults with T1DM in Canada, a connected insulin pen device is likely to be a cost-effective treatment option associated with greater clinical benefits and lower costs relative to a standard re-usable or disposable pen.

Burden of Illness of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A Five-Year Longitudinal Study

INTRODUCTION

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is associated with huge clinical and economic burden in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) which can be curtailed by efficacious treatment. In order to achieve this, current treatment pathways for T2DM and associated costs need to be assessed.

METHODS

A longitudinal cohort review was conducted to collect country-specific and patient-specific clinical data, over a minimum observation period of 5 years in the KSA. Patient demographics, clinical characteristics and treatment patterns were recorded. The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model (CDM) version 9.5 Plus was used to assess the burden of illness, which included long-term projections of clinical (life expectancy [LE], quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs], event rates of diabetes-related complications) and direct medical cost (per-patient annual or lifelong [50 years]) outcomes of the most commonly used first-line (1st-line) regimens for T2DM from a payer perspective in the KSA.

RESULTS

Data were collected from a subpopulation of 638 patients from 15 participating centres. There was an equal gender representation with a majority of the patients belonging to Arabian/Saudi ethnicity (71.0%). Biguanides (81.5%), sulfonylureas (51.6%), dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitors (26.2%) and fast-acting insulins (17.2%) were the most prescribed 1st-line agents. The most frequently used 1st-line regimens resulted in an estimated LE of 25-28 years, QALYs of 18-21 years and lifelong total cost of illness of 201,377-437,371 Saudi Arabian riyal (53,700-116,632 US dollars).

CONCLUSION

Our study addresses gaps in the current research by providing a complete landscape of baseline demographic, clinical characteristics and treatment patterns from a heterogeneous group of patients with T2DM in the KSA. Additionally, the burden of illness analysis using CDM showed substantially higher cost of T2DM care from a payer perspective in the KSA.

The cost-effectiveness of a bimekizumab versus IL-17A inhibitors treatment-pathway in patients with active axial spondyloarthritis in Scotland

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a treatment-pathway initiated with bimekizumab, a monoclonal IgG1 antibody that selectively inhibits interleukin (IL)-17F and IL-17A, in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) compared with IL-17Ai's, ixekizumab, and secukinumab, from the NHS Scotland perspective.

METHODS

The axSpA treatment-pathway was modeled using a decision tree followed by a lifetime Markov model. The pathway included first- and second-line biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARD), followed by best supportive care (bDMARD, nonbiologic). Bimekizumab followed by any bDMARD ("BKZ") was compared with IL-17Ai's: secukinumab 150 mg followed by a blend ("SEC") of dose up-titration to secukinumab 300 mg and any bDMARD, or ixekizumab followed by any bDMARD ("IXE"). Transition to the next therapy was triggered by Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index-50% (BASDAI50) non-response or any-cause discontinuation. A published network meta-analysis provided efficacy data. EuroQoL-5-dimensions utilities were derived by mapping from Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Score. Costs included disease management (linked to functional limitations), biologics acquisition (list prices), administration and monitoring (NHS 2021/22). Discounting was 3.5%/year. Probabilistic results from patients with non-radiographic axSpA and ankylosing spondylitis were averaged to reflect the axSpA disease spectrum. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of BKZ was £24,801/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) vs. SEC (95% credible interval £24,163-£25,895). BKZ had similar costs (Δ -£385 [-£15,239-£14,468]) and QALYs (Δ 0.039 [-0.748-0.825]) to IXE, with £1,523 (£862-£2,222) net monetary benefit. Conclusions remained unchanged in most scenarios. Results' drivers included BASDAI50 response rate and disease management cost.

LIMITATIONS

Results were based on list prices. Data concerning up-titration to secukinumab 300 mg was scarce.

CONCLUSIONS

The bimekizumab treatment-pathway represents a cost-effective option across the axSpA disease spectrum in Scotland. Bimekizumab is cost-effective compared to a secukinumab-pathway that includes dose up-titration, and has similar costs and QALYs to an ixekizumab-pathway.

Long-term follow-up of patients with extensive segmental infantile hemangioma of the cervical or facial region: A French single-center prospective study

BACKGROUND

Infantile hemangiomas (IHs) can be part of PHACE (posterior fossa anomalies, hemangioma, arterial anomalies, cardiac anomalies, eye anomalies) syndrome when they are segmental, extensive, and located on the face or neck. The initial assessment is codified and well known, but there are no recommendations for the follow-up of these patients. The aim of this study was to assess the long-term prevalence of different associated abnormalities.

METHODS

Patients with a history of large segmental IHs of the face or neck. diagnosed between 2011 and 2016 were included in the study. Each patient underwent an ophthalmological, dental, ENT (ear, nose, and throat), dermatological, neuro-pediatric, and radiological assessment at inclusion. Eight patients including five with PHACE syndrome were prospectively evaluated.

RESULTS

After a mean follow-up of 8.5 years, three patients presented with an angiomatous aspect of the oral mucosa, two with hearing loss, and two with otoscopic abnormalities. No patients developed ophthalmological abnormalities. The neurological examination was altered in three cases. Brain magnetic resonance imaging follow-up was unchanged in three out four patients and revealed atrophy of the cerebellar vermis in 1 patient. Neurodevelopmental disorders were found in five of the patients and learning difficulties were observed in five patients. The S1 location appears to be associated with a higher risk of neurodevelopmental disorders and cerebellar malformations, while the S3 location was associated with more progressive complications, including neurovascular, cardiovascular, and ENT abnormalities.

CONCLUSION

Our study reported late complications in patients with a large segmental IH of the face or neck, whether associated with PHACE syndrome or not, and we proposed an algorithm to optimize the long-term follow-up.

Cost-effectiveness of the tubeless automated insulin delivery system vs standard of care in the management of type 1 diabetes in the United States

BACKGROUND: A tubeless, on-body automated insulin delivery (AID) system (Omnipod 5 Automated Insulin Delivery System) demonstrated improved glycated hemoglobin A1c levels and increased time in range (70 mg/dL to 180 mg/dL) for both adults and children with type 1 diabetes in a 13-week multicenter, single-arm study. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of the tubeless AID system compared with standard of care (SoC) in the management of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in the United States. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted from a US payer's perspective, using the IQVIA Core Diabetes Model (version 9.5), with a time horizon of 60 years and an annual discount of 3.0% on both costs and effects. Simulated patients received either tubeless AID or SoC, the latter being defined as either continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (86% of patients) or multiple daily injections. Two cohorts (children: <18 years; adults: ≥18 years) of patients with T1D and 2 thresholds for nonsevere hypoglycemia (nonsevere hypoglycemia event [NSHE] <54 mg/dL and <70 mg/dL) were considered. Baseline cohort characteristics and treatment effects of different risk factors for tubeless AID were sourced from the clinical trial. Utilities and cost of diabetes-related complications were obtained from published sources. Treatment costs were derived from US national database sources. Scenario analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results. RESULTS: Treating children with T1D with tubeless AID, considering an NSHE threshold of less than 54 mg/dL, brings incremental life-years (1.375) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (1.521) at an incremental cost of $15,099 compared with SoC, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $9,927 per QALY gained. Similar results were obtained for adults with T1D assuming an NSHE threshold of less than 54 mg/dL (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = $10,310 per QALY gained). Furthermore, tubeless AID is a dominant treatment option for children and adults with T1D assuming an NSHE threshold of less than 70 mg/dL compared with SoC. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses results showed that compared with SoC, in both children and adults with T1D, tubeless AID was cost-effective in more than 90% of simulations, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per QALY gained. The key drivers of the model were the cost of ketoacidosis, duration of treatment effect, threshold of NSHE, and definition of severe hypoglycemia. CONCLUSIONS: The current analyses suggest that the tubeless AID system can be considered a cost-effective treatment compared with SoC in people with T1D from a US payer's perspective. DISCLOSURES: This research was funded by Insulet. Mr Hopley, Ms Boyd, and Mr Swift are full-time Insulet employees and own stock in Insulet Corporation. IQVIA, the employer of Ms Ramos and Dr Lamotte, received consulting fees for this work. Dr Biskupiak is receiving research support and consulting fees from Insulet. Dr Brixner has received consulting fees from Insulet. The University of Utah has received research funding from Insulet. Dr Levy is a consultant with Dexcom and Eli Lilly and has received grant/research support from Insulet, Tandem, Dexcom, and Abbott Diabetes. Dr Forlenza conducted research sponsored by Medtronic, Dexcom, Abbott, Tandem, Insulet, Beta Bionics, and Lilly. He has been speaker/consultant/advisory board member for Medtronic, Dexcom, Abbott, Tandem, Insulet, Beta Bionics, and Lilly.

Aerobic exercise capacity is normal in obesity with or without metabolic syndrome

BACKGROUND

Obesity might be a cause of limited aerobic exercise capacity. It is often associated with metabolic syndrome (MS) that includes cardiovascular comorbidities as arterial hypertension. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is the gold-standard to assess aerobic capacity and discriminate causes of dyspnea.

AIM

To evaluate aerobic capacity in obesity and if MS or hypertensive treatment impacts on the CPET profile.

METHODS

CPET of 146 obese patients, whom 33 and 31 were matched for MS and antihypertensive medication, were analyzed. VO_2peak (mL/min/Kg) was reported in percentage of predicted value, or, divided by body weight, fat free mass (FFM) or body weight expected for a body mass index of 24 (BMI24).

RESULTS

VO_2peak (20,8 ± 4,4 mL/min/Kg) was normal when expressed in percentage predicted for obesity (111 ± 22%pred) or divided by FFM and weight_BMI24 (33,6 ± 5,6 and 30,6 ± 6,2 respectively). The latter correlated better with maximal work rate (r = 0,7168, p < 0,001). Obese patients showed normal ventilatory efficiency (ventilation to carbon dioxide production slope: 28 ± 4), VO₂ to work rate (10,2 ± 1,6 mLO₂/Watt) and, slightly elevated heart rate to VO₂ slope (4,0 ± 1,1 bpm/mL/min/Kg). Compared to normotensives, hypertensive medicated patients had higher blood pressure at anaerobic threshold (142 ± 23 vs 158 ± 26 mmHg, p = 0,001) but not at maximal exercise (189 ± 31 vs 201 ± 23 mmHg, p = NS), and, had lower actual maximal heart rate (155 ± 23 vs 143 ± 25 bpm, p = 0,03). There was no difference between obese patients with or without MS.

CONCLUSION

Obese people with or without MS present with similar and normal aerobic profile related to the excessive body weight. VO_2peak divided by weight_BMI24 is an easy and clinical meaningful index for obese patients.

Exploring Structural Uncertainty and Impact of Health State Utility Values on Lifetime Outcomes in Diabetes Economic Simulation Models: Findings from the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Quality-of-Life Challenge

BACKGROUND

Structural uncertainty can affect model-based economic simulation estimates and study conclusions. Unfortunately, unlike parameter uncertainty, relatively little is known about its magnitude of impact on life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in modeling of diabetes. We leveraged the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, a biennial conference attended by international diabetes modeling groups, to assess structural uncertainty in simulating QALYs in type 2 diabetes simulation models.

METHODS

Eleven type 2 diabetes simulation modeling groups participated in the 9th Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge. Modeling groups simulated 5 diabetes-related intervention profiles using predefined baseline characteristics and a standard utility value set for diabetes-related complications. LYs and QALYs were reported. Simulations were repeated using lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs. Changes in LYs and QALYs from tested interventions were compared across models. Additional analyses were conducted postchallenge to investigate drivers of cross-model differences.

RESULTS

Substantial cross-model variability in incremental LYs and QALYs was observed, particularly for HbA1c and body mass index (BMI) intervention profiles. For a 0.5%-point permanent HbA1c reduction, LY gains ranged from 0.050 to 0.750. For a 1-unit permanent BMI reduction, incremental QALYs varied from a small decrease in QALYs (-0.024) to an increase of 0.203. Changes in utility values of health states had a much smaller impact (to the hundredth of a decimal place) on incremental QALYs. Microsimulation models were found to generate a mean of 3.41 more LYs than cohort simulation models (P = 0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

Variations in utility values contribute to a lesser extent than uncertainty captured as structural uncertainty. These findings reinforce the importance of assessing structural uncertainty thoroughly because the choice of model (or models) can influence study results, which can serve as evidence for resource allocation decisions.HighlightsThe findings indicate substantial cross-model variability in QALY predictions for a standardized set of simulation scenarios and is considerably larger than within model variability to alternative health state utility values (e.g., lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs).There is a need to understand and assess structural uncertainty, as the choice of model to inform resource allocation decisions can matter more than the choice of health state utility values.

Influence of the method of calculating the Ve / VCO2 slope on its value in a cohort of 700 successive Cardiopulmonary exercise testing

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

The Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is the gold standard for cardiorespiratory and metabolic function at exercise. This CPEThighlight the limiting factors, but also provides prognostic indicators. Among the prognostic factors, maximal oxygen uptake (peak VO2) has been used for many years, particularly in heart failure, but some studies have highlighted the limitations of isolated use of peak VO2. The measurement of the Ve / VCO2 slope is currently recognized as having a complementary prognostic value. However, the manner of determining the Ve / VCO2 slope is not universally established. A single CPET could therefore deliver several slope measurements depending on the method used to calculate it. This lack of clarity would lead to possible variations affecting the reflection of the severity of the disease or the prognostic power of this parameter.

Our work consisted in calculating and comparing, over nearly 700 successive CPET, the slope Ve / VCO2: 1) by calculating it up to SV1, 2) by calculating it up to SV2, 3) by the calculating on all the data beyond SV2 (in the 44% of patients in whom SV2 could be determined). The patients were classified according to the indication of the examination in 1) cardiac (54%), 2) pulmonary (15%), 3) dyspnea assessment (10%) and 4) various (oncology, obesity, diabetes, rheumatic disease: 21%). The "cardiac" category was subdivided into HTP, IC, operated CPI and non operated CPI) (results not detailed in this abstract).

We have found systematic and significant differences depending on how the slope is calculated. On the whole population: in patients who did not reach SV2 (n = 389), the Ve / VCO2 slope reaches 33.8 +/- 8.5 when it is calculated up to SV1 while it reaches 38.5 + / - 8.7 (p &lt;0.001) when it is calculated over the entire CPET. On the whole population: in patients with SV2 (n = 308), the Ve / VCO2 slope reaches 29.4 +/- 5.9 when it is calculated up to SV1, 33.5 +/- 6 (p &lt;0.001) when it is calculated up to SV2 and 37.8 +/- 6.9 (p &lt;0.001 and p &lt;0.001) when it is calculated over the entire examination. When we analyze in more detail the population according to the indication of the examination, we observe differences of 3.8 to 5.2 units depending on the calculation method in patients not achieving SV2 and from 7 to 8.5 units. depending on the method of calculation in patients exceeding SV2. In subdivisions of the cardiac population the differences are also large : for example in HTP, the values ranging from 34.7 +/- 7.1 to 42.9 +/- 8.9 (p &lt;0.001) depending on the calculation method.

Our work highlights that the way of determining the Ve / VCO2 slope greatly influences its value. The significant variations observed certainly limit the prognostic value of the Ve / VCO2 slope and homogenization of the calculation method seems essential in order to improve its prognostic value.

Effort perception and hemodynamic responses to the 3/7 vs. 3X9 methods in heart failure and in coronary artery disease patients: a randomized-cross-over study

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Fonds Erasme pour la recherche médicale

Background/Introduction

The hemodynamic response to strength training depends on the intensity, the time of rest between exercise sets and the duration of the exercise (1-3). A new method (the ‘3/7 method’), which consist of 5 successive sets of exercise with an increasing number of repetitions (3 to 7) separated by brief inter-set rest intervals (15 s), achieved a greater and faster strength gain after 12 weeks of training in young healthy subjects (4-5) (Fig 1). Further characterization of the tolerability of 3/7 method, as well as rise in blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) it may induce, is needed in a patient population before this methodology can be applied in cardiac rehabilitation centers (6). These parameters were compared to those induced by 3 series of 9 repetitions (‘3X9 method’) with a longer inter-set rest interval (1min), using a randomized and cross-over study design.

Purpose

This study investigated the Borg scale and hemodynamic response of the 3/7 vs. 3X9 strength training methods in heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF, Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) &lt; 40%) and patients with coronary artery disease (LVEF&gt; 40%, CAD).

Method

23 HFrEF (58±9 y, 13% female) and 22 CAD (64±10 y, 14% female) participated in the study. CAD underwent revascularization between 1 and 6 months prior to the study. Patients with decompensated heart failure, atrial fibrillation, major orthopedics disabilities were not included in the study. The strength training consisted in leg extension against a load of ~ 70% of 1 repetition maximal (1RM). Perceived exertion was also assessed at the end of the last set by using the modified Borg Scale (0-10). HR and BP were assessed noninvasively beat by beat (Task Force Monitor). We compared baseline and peak exercise values in each group. All participants signed an agreement form approved by the local Ethic Review Board.

Result

Baseline BP and HR and effort perception at the end of exercise did not differ between the 3/7 and 3X9 groups (Borg scale: HFrEF 3/7 method: 5,4±2,6 vs. 3X9 method: 5,8±2,5; CAD 3/7 method: 6,2±1,3 vs. 3X9 method: 6,1±1,5; p= NS) (Fig 2). HR became faster with the 3/7 method as compared to the 3X9 method in the HFrEF (85±11 vs. 83±12 bpm, p=0.014, respectively) and CAD (90±13 vs. 87±14 bpm, p=0.03, respectively) patients. In the CAD group, systolic BP increased more with the 3/7 method than with the 3X9 method (143±22 vs. 133±20 mm Hg, p&lt;0.001). Other parameters did not differ.

Conclusion

The 3/7 and 3X9 strength training protocols elicit comparable effort perception and similar hemodynamic responses in HFrEF and CAD. The 3/7 method increases transiently HR by a few more beats in both groups and raises systolic BP by 10 additional mmHg in CAD patients. Taken together, this study suggests the 3/7 method is safe in patients with HFrEF and CAD, and warrants further investigation of the usefulness of the 3/7 method in cardiac rehabilitation units.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Subcutaneous Semaglutide Versus Empagliflozin in Type 2 Diabetes Uncontrolled on Metformin Alone in Denmark

INTRODUCTION

International and Danish guidelines recommend the use of glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors already in second line in the management of type 2 diabetes (T2D). The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness (CE) of subcutaneous (SC) semaglutide (GLP-1 RA) versus empagliflozin (SGLT-2 inhibitor) in individuals with T2D uncontrolled on metformin alone from a Danish payer's perspective.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) were conducted from a Danish payer's perspective, using the IQVIA Core Diabetes model (CDM 9.5), with a time horizon of 50 years and an annual discount of 4% on costs and effects. Patients received either SC semaglutide or empagliflozin, in addition to metformin, until HbA1c threshold of 7.5% (58 mmol/mol) was reached, following which treatment intensification with insulin glargine in addition to empagliflozin or SC semaglutide plus metformin was considered. Baseline cohort characteristics and treatment effects were sourced from a published CEA. Utilities and cost of diabetes-related complications were also obtained from published sources. Treatment costs were derived from Danish official sources. Scenario analyses were also performed to test the accuracy of the base case results.

RESULTS

Individuals with T2D on SC semaglutide plus metformin gained 0.065 life-years (LYs) and 0.130 quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs), respectively, at an incremental cost of DKK 96,923 (€ 13,031) compared to empagliflozin plus metformin, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of DKK 745,561(€ 100,239) per QALY gained. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) results showed that the SC semaglutide plus metformin was cost-effective in 19% of simulations assuming a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of DKK 357,100 (€ 48,011)/QALY gained. Duration of therapy with SC semaglutide seems the key driver of results.

CONCLUSION

The current analyses suggest that SC semaglutide plus metformin is not cost-effective compared to empagliflozin plus metformin from a Danish payer's perspective.

Treatment patterns and unmet needs in adults with classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia: A modified Delphi consensus study

BACKGROUND

Classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency is a rare autosomal recessive condition characterized by cortisol deficiency and excess androgen production. The current standard of care is glucocorticoid (GC) therapy, and sometimes mineralocorticoids, to replace endogenous cortisol deficiency; however, supraphysiologic GC doses are usually needed to reduce excess androgen production. Monitoring/titrating GC treatment remains a major challenge, and there is no agreement on assessment of treatment adequacy. This study surveyed expert opinions on current treatment practices and unmet needs in adults with classic CAH.

METHODS

A modified two-round Delphi process with adult endocrinologists was conducted via online questionnaire. Survey questions were organized into three categories: practice characteristics/CAH experience, GC management, and unmet needs/complications. Anonymized aggregate data from Round 1 were provided as feedback for Round 2. Responses from both rounds were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Consensus was defined a priori as: full consensus (100%, n=9/9); near consensus (78% to <100%, n=7/9 or 8/9); no consensus (<78%, n<7/9).

RESULTS

The same nine panelists participated in both survey rounds; five (56%) were based in North America and four (44%) in Europe. Most panelists (78%) used hydrocortisone in the majority of patients, but two (22%) preferred prednisone/prednisolone. Panelists agreed (89%) that adequate control is best evaluated using a balance of clinical presentation and androgen/precursor laboratory values; no consensus was reached on optimal timing of collecting samples for androgen testing or laboratory values indicating good control. Despite lack of consensus on many aspects of CAH management, panelists agreed on the importance of many disease- and GC-related complications, and that there is a large unmet need for new treatments. With currently available treatments, panelists reported that 46% of classic CAH patients did not have optimized androgen levels, regardless of GC dose.

CONCLUSIONS

The limited areas of consensus obtained in this study reflect the variability in treatment practices for adults with classic CAH, even among clinicians with expertise in treating this population. However, all panelists agreed on the need for new treatments for classic CAH and the importance of many disease- and GC-related complications, which are difficult to manage with currently available treatments.

Cost-Effectiveness of the FreeStyle Libre® System Versus Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring in Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes on Insulin Treatment in Sweden

INTRODUCTION

Frequent glucose monitoring is essential to obtain glucose control. This is done by periodic self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) using finger-prick testing, or by using continuous glucose monitoring devices, wherein a sensor records interstitial glucose data automatically. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of using the FreeStyle Libre Flash Continuous Glucose Monitoring System (FSL) compared to SMBG in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) treated with insulin from a Swedish societal perspective.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using the IQVIA Core Diabetes model v9.5, with demographic and clinical inputs from a real-world study using Swedish National Diabetes Register data. Two cohorts of individuals with T2D were considered based on baseline HbA1C (HbA1c: 8-9% [64-75 mmol/mol]; HbA1c: 9-12% [75-108 mmol/mol]). HbA1c reductions with FSL were - 0.41% (- 4 mmol/mol; SD: 0.94%-10 mmol/mol) and - 1.30% (- 14 mmol/mol; SD: 1.40%-15 mmol/mol) for the two cohorts, respectively. Utilities, treatment costs and diabetes-related complication costs were obtained from published sources. Analyses were conducted over a lifetime horizon, applying annual discounting of 3% on costs and effects. Scenario analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Individuals with T2D who had a baseline HbA1c of 8-9% (64-75 mmol/mol) and 9-12% (75-108 mmol/mol) and used FSL gained 0.50 and 0.57 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), respectively, at an incremental cost of SEK109,957 and SEK82,170 compared to SMBG, generating an incremental cost-utility ratio of SEK219,127 and SEK144,412 per QALY gained. Assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of SEK300,000 per QALY gained, FSL use was considered cost-effective compared to SMBG for the majority of the individuals in both the lower and higher HbA1c cohorts. The key driver identified was the additional quality-of-life benefit that applied to FSL use.

CONCLUSION

The FreeStyle Libre Flash Continuous Glucose Monitoring System is a cost-effective glucose monitoring alternative to SMBG for individuals with T2D in Sweden who are treated with insulin but are not reaching their glycaemic goals.

Cost-Effectiveness of iGlarLixi Versus iDegLira in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Inadequately Controlled by GLP-1 Receptor Agonists and Oral Antihyperglycemic Therapy

INTRODUCTION

The fixed-ratio combinations (FRCs) of glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) and basal insulin, insulin glargine 100 U/mL plus lixisenatide (iGlarLixi), and insulin degludec plus liraglutide (iDegLira), have demonstrated safety and efficacy in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) inadequately controlled on GLP-1 RAs. However, a comparative cost-effectiveness analysis between these FRCs from a UK Health Service perspective has not been conducted.

METHODS

The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model was used to estimate lifetime costs and outcomes in patients with T2DM receiving iGlarLixi (based on the LixiLan-G trial) versus iDegLira (based on relative treatment effects from an indirect treatment comparison using data from DUAL III). Utilities, medical costs, and costs of diabetes-related complications were derived from literature. Model outputs included costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated with a local willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY. Extensive scenario, one-way sensitivity, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the model.

RESULTS

iGlarLixi was less costly (iGlarLixi, £30,011; iDegLira, £40,742), owing to lower acquisition costs, and similar in terms of QALYs gained (iGlarLixi, 8.437; iDegLira, 8.422). Extensive scenario and sensitivity analyses supported the base case findings.

CONCLUSION

In patients with T2DM and inadequate glycemic control despite GLP-1 RAs, use of iGlarLixi was associated with substantial cost savings and comparable utility outcomes. iGlarLixi can be considered as cost-effective versus iDegLira from the UK Health Service perspective.

The cost-effectiveness of oral semaglutide versus empagliflozin in Type 2 diabetes in Denmark

Aim: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of oral semaglutide+metformin versus empagliflozin+metformin in people with Type 2 diabetes uncontrolled on msetformin alone. Materials and methods: The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model was populated with efficacy data from a head-to-head study between oral semaglutide+metformin and empagliflozin+metformin. Danish costs and quality-of-life data were sourced from literature. Price per day was Danish Krone (DKK) 25.53 for oral semaglutide and DKK11.40 for empagliflozin. Discounting was fixed at 4%. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: Over a lifetime, Core Diabetes Model projected 8.78 and 8.75 quality-adjusted life-years and a total cost of DKK 447,633 and DKK 387,786, thereby generating an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of DKK 1,930,548 for oral semaglutide+metformin versus empagliflozin+metformin. Scenario and sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the outcomes. Duration of treatment with oral semaglutide is the key driver of the analyses. Conclusion: Oral semaglutide+metformin seems not cost effective versus empagliflozin+metformin in patients uncontrolled on metformin in Denmark.

Cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease in China

Background

In several cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs), empagliflozin (SGLT-2 inhibitor), sitagliptin (DPP-4 inhibitor) and liraglutide (GLP-1 receptor agonist) + standard of care (SoC) were compared to SoC in patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study assessed the cost-effectiveness (CE) of empagliflozin + SoC in comparison to sitagliptin + SoC and liraglutide + SoC based on the respective CVOT.

Methods

The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model (CDM) was calibrated to reproduce the CVOT outcomes. EMPA-REG OUTCOME baseline characteristics and CVOT specific treatment effects on risk factors for cardiovascular disease (HbA1c, BMI, blood pressure, lipids) were applied. Three-year observed cardiovascular events of empagliflozin + SoC versus sitagliptin + SoC and liraglutide + SoC were derived from EMPA-REG OUTCOME and an indirect treatment comparison. Relative risk adjustments to calibrate the CDM were obtained after a trial and error process to match as closely the observed and CDM-predicted outcomes. The drug-specific treatment effects were considered up until HbA1c reached 8.5% and treatment switch occurred. After this switch, the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study 82 risk equations predicted events based on co-existing risk factors and treatment intensification to basal bolus insulin were applied. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system applying 3% discounting. The time horizon was lifelong.

Results

Empagliflozin + SoC provides additional Quality Adjusted Life years (QALY + 0.564) for an incremental cost of 42,497RMB (US$6053) compared to sitagliptin + SoC, resulting in an Incremental Cost Utility Ratio of 75,349RMB (US$10,732), thus below the willingness-to-pay threshold of 212,676RMB, corresponding to three times the Gross Domestic Product in China (2019). Compared to liraglutide + SoC, empagliflozin + SoC use leads to 0.211QALY gained and cost savings of 71,427RMB (US$10,173) and is as such dominant. Scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated the robustness of the results.

Conclusion

Results suggest that empagliflozin + SoC is cost-effective compared to sitagliptin + SoC and liraglutide + SoC at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 212,676RMB ($30,292)/QALY.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12962-021-00299-z.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Empagliflozin Versus Liraglutide Treatment in People with Type 2 Diabetes and Established Cardiovascular Disease

INTRODUCTION

The increasing financial burden associated with diabetes treatment presents a challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Recently, clinical guidelines have focussed on patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and established cardiovascular disease (CVD) and recommend a sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor or a glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist as second-line treatment after metformin or independently of baseline glycated haemogloblin A1c (HbA1c). In Danish clinical guidelines, empagliflozin and liraglutide are highlighted owing to their positive impact on mortality. Thus, this study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin plus standard of care (SoC) versus liraglutide plus SoC in Danish patients with T2D and established CVD using a lifetime and 5-year horizon.

METHODS

The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model (CDM) was calibrated to reproduce the clinical event rates observed in the cardiovascular outcome trial EMPA-REG OUTCOME. Network meta-analysis provided the relative risks for cardiovascular outcomes with empagliflozin versus liraglutide. Microvascular outcomes were predicted by standard CDM risk equations. The relative treatment effect was assumed for 9 years after which treatment was switched to basal-bolus therapy. The CDM was populated with Danish costs of events and drug costs at price-level 2019. Discounting of 4% was applied.

RESULTS

Over a lifetime horizon, CDM projected 9.858 and 9.667 life years, 6.162 and 5.976 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and DKK 478,026 (€64,079) and DKK 500,025 (€67,027) in total costs for empagliflozin plus SoC and liraglutide plus SoC, respectively. For a 5-year horizon, the results were 4.189 and 4.140 life years, 2.746 and 2.655 QALY, as well as DKK 123,413 (€16,543) and DKK 161,783 (€21,687), respectively. Empagliflozin was the dominant treatment alternative. Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of these results.

CONCLUSION

The cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that empagliflozin plus SoC is dominant compared to liraglutide plus SoC in Denmark over both lifetime and 5-year horizons.

Potential clinical and economic impact of optimised maintenance therapy on discharged patients with COPD after hospitalisation for an exacerbation in China

OBJECTIVES

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations requiring hospitalisation are a considerable burden, both clinically and economically. Although long-acting maintenance therapy is recommended in both the GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) and Chinese COPD guidelines, proper implementation is lacking. The objective of this study was to assess the clinical and economic impact of prescribing long-acting maintenance therapy to discharged patients with COPD after hospitalisation for an exacerbation in China by using an outcomes model.

DESIGN

This health economic analysis was conducted using a Markov cohort model from the Chinese healthcare payer perspective. Two health states (alive and dead) were modelled, and exacerbations were included as possible events.

SETTING

The target population was Chinese patients with COPD, >40 years of age, who were hospitalised for an exacerbation, with 1 year of follow-up. A recent COPD national prevalence study was referenced for population calculations.

INTERVENTION

A hypothetical future scenario, where 100% of patients would receive long-acting maintenance therapy after hospitalisation for an exacerbation, was compared with the current scenario, in which only 38.5% of patients are receiving long-acting maintenance therapy after hospitalisation.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Number of exacerbations, deaths and medical costs were measured.

RESULTS

We estimated that there were approximately 4 million Chinese patients with COPD who were hospitalised annually due to an exacerbation. By prescribing long-acting maintenance therapy, our model predicted that 917 360 exacerbations and 4034 deaths could be avoided, translating into cost savings of ¥3.5 billion (US$0.5 billion). Scenario analysis also showed that if the rate of exacerbations requiring hospitalisation was higher than our base case analysis, cost savings could reach up to ¥10.7 billion (US$1.5 billion).

CONCLUSION

Administering long-acting maintenance therapy to more patients with COPD at hospital discharge could considerably reduce exacerbations and healthcare spending in China.

A novel decision model to predict the impact of weight management interventions: The Core Obesity Model

Aims

Models are needed to quantify the economic implications of obesity in relation to health outcomes and health-related quality of life. This report presents the structure of the Core Obesity Model (COM) and compare its predictions with the UK clinical practice data.

Materials and methods

The COM is a Markov, closed-cohort model, which expands on earlier obesity models by including prediabetes as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D), and sleep apnea and cancer as health outcomes. Selected outcomes predicted by the COM were compared with observed event rates from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink-Hospital Episode Statistics (CPRD-HES) study. The importance of baseline prediabetes prevalence, a factor not taken into account in previous economic models of obesity, was tested in a scenario analysis using data from the 2011 Health Survey of England.

Results

Cardiovascular (CV) event rates predicted by the COM were well matched with those in the CPRD-HES study (7.8-8.5 per 1000 patient-years across BMI groups) in both base case and scenario analyses (8.0-9.4 and 8.6-9.9, respectively). Rates of T2D were underpredicted in the base case (1.0-7.6 vs. 2.1-22.7) but increased to match those observed in CPRD-HES for some BMI groups when a prospectively collected prediabetes prevalence was used (2.7-13.1). Mortality rates in the CPRD-HES were consistently higher than the COM predictions, especially in higher BMI groups.

Conclusions

The COM predicts the occurrence of CV events and T2D with a good degree of accuracy, particularly when prediabetes is included in the model, indicating the importance of considering this risk factor in economic models of obesity.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of empagliflozin compared with glimepiride in patients with Type 2 diabetes in China

Aim: The study assesses the cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin versus glimepiride in patients with Type 2 diabetes and uncontrolled by metformin alone in China, based on the EMPA-REG H2H-SU trial. Materials & methods: A calibrated version of the IQVIA Core Diabetes Model was used. Cost of complications and utility were taken from literature. The Chinese healthcare system perspective and 5% discounting rates were applied. Results: Empagliflozin+metformin provides additional quality-adjusted life-years (0.317) driven by a reduction in the number of cardiovascular and renal events, for an additional cost of $1382 (CNY9703) compared with glimepiride+metformin. Conclusion: Empagliflozin is cost-effective treatment versus glimepiride applying a threshold of $30,290 (CNY212,676).

Cost-effectiveness of the cell-based quadrivalent versus the standard egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine in Germany

BACKGROUND

Standard influenza vaccines are produced using egg-based manufacturing methods. Through the process, the resulting egg-adapted viral strains may differ from the selected vaccine strain. Cell-derived influenza vaccine manufacturing prevents egg-adaptation of the antigen which can improve vaccine effectiveness. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent cell-derived influenza vaccine (QIVc) versus an egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVe) in preventing seasonal influenza from German societal and payer perspectives.

METHODS

Adapted version of the individual-based dynamic 4Flu transmission model was combined with a decision-tree to calculate the impact of QIVc versus QIVe on influenza over 20 seasons in Germany. Egg-adaptation, resulting in lower effectiveness of QIVe versus QIVc towards the H3N2 influenza strain, is sourced from a US retrospective study and assumed in 100% (base case) or 55% (conservative scenario) of years. Influenza-related probabilities of outpatient visits, hospitalizations, productivity loss, and mortality, with associated (dis)utilities/costs, were extracted from literature. Costs and outcomes were discounted 3.0%/year.

RESULTS

Replacing QIVe with QIVc in subjects aged ≥ 9 years can annually prevent 167,265 symptomatic cases, 51,114 outpatient visits, 2,091 hospitalizations, and 103 deaths in Germany. The annual number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) increased by 1,628 and healthcare costs decreased by €178 M from societal perspective. From payer perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €2,285 per QALY. Scenario analyses confirmed results robustness.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of QIVc compared to QIVe, in the German Immunization Program, could significantly prevent outpatient visits and hospitalizations and would enable substantial savings from a societal perspective.

External Validation of the Core Obesity Model to Assess the Cost-Effectiveness of Weight Management Interventions

BACKGROUND

For economic models to be considered fit for purpose, it is vital that their outputs can be interpreted with confidence by clinicians, budget holders and other stakeholders. Consequently, thorough validation of models should be carried out to enhance confidence in their predictions. Here, we present results of external dependent and independent validations of the Core Obesity Model (COM), which was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of weight management interventions.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to assess the external validity of the COM (version 6.1), in line with best practice guidance from the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society for Medical Decision Making.

METHODS

For validation, suitable sources and outcomes were identified, and used to populate the COM with relevant inputs to allow prediction of study outcomes. Study characteristics were entered into the COM to replicate either the studies used to develop the model (dependent validation) or those not included in the model (independent validation). The concordance between predicted and observed outcomes was then assessed using established statistical methods and generation of mean error estimates.

RESULTS

For most outcomes, the predictions of the COM showed good linear correlation with observed outcomes, as evidenced by the high coefficients of determination (R² values). The independent validation revealed a degree of underestimation in predictions of cardiovascular (CV) disease and mortality, and type 2 diabetes.

CONCLUSION

The predictions generated by the risk equations used in the COM showed good concordance both with the studies used to develop the model and with studies not included in the model. In particular, the concordance observed in the external dependent validation suggests that the COM accurately predicts obesity-related event rates observed in the studies used to develop the model. However, the impact of existing CV risk, as well as mortality, is a key area for future refinement of the COM. Our results should increase confidence in the estimates derived from the COM and reduce uncertainty associated with analyses using this model.

Evaluating the Ability of Economic Models of Diabetes to Simulate New Cardiovascular Outcomes Trials: A Report on the Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge

OBJECTIVES

The cardiovascular outcomes challenge examined the predictive accuracy of 10 diabetes models in estimating hard outcomes in 2 recent cardiovascular outcomes trials (CVOTs) and whether recalibration can be used to improve replication.

METHODS

Participating groups were asked to reproduce the results of the Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients (EMPA-REG OUTCOME) and the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) Program. Calibration was performed and additional analyses assessed model ability to replicate absolute event rates, hazard ratios (HRs), and the generalizability of calibration across CVOTs within a drug class.

RESULTS

Ten groups submitted results. Models underestimated treatment effects (ie, HRs) using uncalibrated models for both trials. Calibration to the placebo arm of EMPA-REG OUTCOME greatly improved the prediction of event rates in the placebo, but less so in the active comparator arm. Calibrating to both arms of EMPA-REG OUTCOME individually enabled replication of the observed outcomes. Using EMPA-REG OUTCOME-calibrated models to predict CANVAS Program outcomes was an improvement over uncalibrated models but failed to capture treatment effects adequately. Applying canagliflozin HRs directly provided the best fit.

CONCLUSIONS

The Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge demonstrated that commonly used risk equations were generally unable to capture recent CVOT treatment effects but that calibration of the risk equations can improve predictive accuracy. Although calibration serves as a practical approach to improve predictive accuracy for CVOT outcomes, it does not extrapolate generally to other settings, time horizons, and comparators. New methods and/or new risk equations for capturing these CV benefits are needed.

Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Empagliflozin Versus Oral Semaglutide, in Addition to Metformin, for the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes in the UK

INTRODUCTION

International guidelines recommend treatment with a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor or glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for treatment intensification in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients with progression on metformin. In the randomised, controlled, Peptide Innovation for Early Diabetes Treatment (PIONEER) 2 trial, the SGLT-2 inhibitor empagliflozin was compared with the GLP-1 receptor agonist oral semaglutide, in addition to metformin. The aim of the current study was to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin 25 mg versus oral semaglutide 14 mg, in addition to metformin, for T2DM patients in the UK.

METHODS

Analyses were conducted from the UK healthcare payer perspective, using the IQVIA Core Diabetes model, with a time horizon of 50 years. Patients received either empagliflozin or oral semaglutide, in addition to metformin, until Hba1c threshold of 7.5% (58 mmol/mol) was exceeded, following which treatment intensification with insulin glargine in addition to empagliflozin or oral semaglutide plus metformin was assumed. Baseline cohort characteristics and 52-week treatment effects were derived from the PIONEER 2 trial. Treatment effects of empagliflozin and GLP-1 receptor agonists on hospitalisation for heart failure (hHF) were based on the Empagliflozin Comparative Effectiveness and Safety (EMPRISE) real-world study. Utilities, treatment costs and costs of diabetes-related complications were obtained from published sources.

RESULTS

Direct costs for empagliflozin plus metformin were considerably lower than those for oral semaglutide plus metformin (by more than GBP 6000). Compared with oral semaglutide plus metformin, empagliflozin plus metformin was a cost-effective treatment for T2DM patients in all scenarios tested. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed cost-effectiveness in > 95% of the iterations using a threshold of 20,000 GBP/QALY.

CONCLUSION

Empagliflozin 25 mg is a cost-effective treatment option versus oral semaglutide 14 mg, when used in addition to metformin, for the treatment of T2DM patients in the UK.

Cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin compared with liraglutide based on cardiovascular outcome trials in Type II diabetes

Aim: Cost-effectiveness (CE) analysis of empagliflozin+standard of care (SoC) compared with SoC and liraglutide+SoC, in patients with Type II diabetes and established cardiovascular disease, was conducted using evidence from cardiovascular outcomes trials. Methods: The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model was calibrated to predict same outcomes observed in EMPA-REG OUTCOME and LEADER trials. Three-year observed cardiovascular events of SoC, empagliflozin+SoC and liraglutide+SoC were derived from EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial and an indirect comparison. Time horizon was 50 years and the UK payer perspective was taken. Results: Empagliflozin+SoC dominated liraglutide+SoC with greater quality-adjusted life years and reduced costs. Base-case incremental CE ratio of 6428 GBP/QALY was observed for empagliflozin+SoC versus SoC. Conclusion: Results suggest that empagliflozin+SoC is cost effective versus SoC and liraglutide+SoC.

Tritium in precipitation on 5 sites in North-West France during the 2017-2019 period

Between October 2017 and May 2019, measurements of tritium in rainwater were carried out at several sites in north-west France. Tritium is an important tracer for hydroclimatic studies and this work provided up-to-date data that we compared with Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) measurements. Of the various sites studied, some could potentially be affected by atmospheric gaseous emissions from the nuclear industries in the region (reprocessing plant, nuclear power plant). On our reference site, the activities measured in rainwater are often below the decision threshold (<0.15 Bq.L^-1). Two other sites with little impact from nuclear industries have mean activities of less than 0.7 Bq.L^-1. At the two Cherbourg sites closer to the nuclear industries, the activities in rainwater are slightly higher on average, though still close to 1 Bq.L^-1, but the activities are more variable when the rainfall accompanies an air mass from the Orano La Hague nuclear site. Using existing GNIP data and a simple model to simulate predicted data up to 2019, it is shown that all our measured data are comparable with the predicted activities for GNIP stations with a marine influence, in the case of the reference site and the sites with little impact from nuclear industries, and for GNIP stations with a continental influence, in the case of the other sites. Seasonal variation in activities was detected, with greater activities in the spring-summer period corresponding to the well known 'spring leak' phenomenon. This study also reveals significant differences between the activities measured on the western side of France (influenced by the Atlantic Ocean) and those measured in a continental zone. The mean levels of tritium in rainwater in France, excluding any nuclear influence, can be estimated on average at less than 0.3 Bq.L^-1 in the western marine zone, and at around 1 Bq.L^-1 in the continental zones.

COSICAF, a fission chamber simulation tool for academic purposes

Since a few years, simulation codes were built at CEA Cadarache to predict the signal of ionisation chambers and taylor detectors for specific applications. It is proposed here to present COSICAF, a tool developed for mainly academic purpose and rapid fission chamber prototyping. This numerical simulation, mostly based on semi-empirical models and Monte-Carlo method will help students to understand how ionisation chambers work. Through the paper, models and their numerical implementation will be discussed. A focus is made on recently implemented features like charge multiplication and correlated source which make the simulation of proportional counter possible. To demonstrate the interest of the code, simulations of a planar fission chamber is proposed.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Empagliflozin in Comparison to Sitagliptin and Saxagliptin Based on Cardiovascular Outcome Trials in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Established Cardiovascular Disease

INTRODUCTION

In the cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOT) EMPA-REG OUTCOME, TECOS and SAVOR-TIMI 53, empagliflozin [sodium/glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor], sitagliptin and saxagliptin [both dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitors] + standard of care (SoC) were compared to SoC in patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study assessed the cost-effectiveness (CE) of empagliflozin + SoC in comparison to sitagliptin + SoC and saxagliptin + SoC based on the respective CVOT.

METHODS

The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model (CDM) was calibrated to reproduce the CVOT outcomes. EMPA-REG OUTCOME baseline characteristics and CVOT specific treatment effects on risk factors for cardiovascular disease [glycated haemogloblin A1c (HbA1c), body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, lipids] were applied. Three-year observed cardiovascular events of empagliflozin + SoC versus sitagliptin + SoC and saxagliptin + SoC were derived from EMPA-REG OUTCOME and an indirect treatment comparison. Relative risk (RR) adjustments to calibrate the CDM were estimated after consecutive attempts of running the model until the observed and CDM-predicted outcomes matched closely. The drug-specific treatment effects were considered up until treatment switch (when HbA1c reached 8.5%), after which, the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) 82 risk equations predicted events based on co-existing risk factors and treatment intensification to basal-bolus insulin were applied. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. Costs and quality of life data were derived from UK national sources and published literature. A 50-year time horizon and discount rate of 3.5% were applied.

RESULTS

The CDM projected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 6.408, 5.917 and 5.704 and total costs of 50,801 GBP, 47,627 GBP and 48,071 GBP for empagliflozin + SoC, sitagliptin + SoC and saxagliptin + SoC, respectively. The incremental CE ratio (ICER) of empagliflozin + SoC versus sitagliptin + SoC and saxagliptin + SoC was 6464 GBP/QALY and 3878 GBP/QALY, respectively. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated the robustness of the results.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest that empagliflozin + SoC is cost-effective compared to sitagliptin + SoC and saxagliptin + SoC at a willingness to pay threshold of 20,000 GBP/QALY.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH.

The Challenge of Transparency and Validation in Health Economic Decision Modelling: A View from Mount Hood

Transparency in health economic decision modelling is important for engendering confidence in the models and in the reliability of model-based cost-effectiveness analyses. The Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network has taken a lead in promoting transparency through validation with biennial conferences in which diabetes modelling groups meet to compare simulated outcomes of pre-specified scenarios often based on the results of pivotal clinical trials. Model registration is a potential method for promoting transparency, while also reducing the duplication of effort. An important network initiative is the ongoing construction of a diabetes model registry (https://www.mthooddiabeteschallenge.com). Following the 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society of Medical Decision Making (ISPOR-SMDM) guidelines, we recommend that modelling groups provide technical and non-technical documentation sufficient to enable model reproduction, but not necessarily provide the model code. We also request that modelling groups upload documentation on the methods and outcomes of validation efforts, and run reference case simulations so that model outcomes can be compared. In this paper, we discuss conflicting definitions of transparency in health economic modelling, and describe the ongoing development of a registry of economic models for diabetes through the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, its objectives and potential further developments, and highlight the challenges in its construction and maintenance. The support of key stakeholders such as decision-making bodies and journals is key to ensuring the success of this and other registries. In the absence of public funding, the development of a network of modellers is of huge value in enhancing transparency, whether through registries or other means.

P4437Exercise limitation in systemic sclerosis: a case-controlled study

Introduction

Interstitial lung disease and pulmonary hypertension are the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Exercise-induced dyspnea is the first manifestation of both complications, which explains why the value of resting tests to predict preclinical heart or lung involvement is limited. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) offers a comprehensive approach to identify the cause of exercise limitation. However, the role of CPET in SSc patients without demonstrated cardiac and/or respiratory disease has not been extensively investigated.

Aim

We sought to compare the cardiopulmonary adaptation to exercise of SSc patients without cardiac or pulmonary disease vs healthy volunteers.

Methods

SSc patients (normal resting echocardiography and pulmonary functional test) and healthy volunteers were prospectively enrolled. They underwent maximal symptom-limited CPET, exercise echocardiography (EXEcho), and 6 minutes walk test. Results were compared after adjustment for age and gender.

Results

Thirty-nine patients (54±12 years) and 43 healthy subjects (46±11 years) were included.

Workload was lower in patients than controls (84±42 vs 178±58 W, p<0.001), with similar respiratory exchange ratio (1.27±0.11 vs 1.28±0.10, p=0.570) at peak exercise. Patients had lower oxygen uptake (VO2) at peak exercise (17±6 vs 30±8 ml min kg–1, p<0.001), and higher minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production (VE/VCO2) slope (41±8 vs 33±5, p<0.001) than controls (Figure 1). They had higher VE/VCO2 ratio (40±7 vs 30±3, p<0.001) and lower end-tidal pCO2 (PetCO2) (35±5 vs 41±3 mmHg, p<0.001) at the ventilatory threshold (VT). Respiratory reserve was preserved, and peripheral oxygen saturation was normal at peak exercise in both groups.

Resting echocardiography revealed larger left atrium in SSc-patients (24±8 vs 20±7 ml/m2, p=0.013) and higher estimated left atrial pressure (LAP) (10±2 vs 8±2 mmHg, p=0.001) vs controls. At ExEcho, total pulmonary resistance (TPR) was higher (3.2±0.6 vs 2.6±0.5 WU, p=0.003) and right ventricular function markers were lower at peak exercise in patients vs controls, despite similar values at rest. Plasma NT-proBNP was within normal range in all patients.

Walk distance was shorter in SSc-patients vs controls (505±80 vs 624±50 m, p<0.001), and correlated with peak VO2, VE/VCO2 slope, and VE/VCO2 at VT.

In Ssc patients, peak VO2 also correlated with DLCO (r=0.640, p<0.001), with left atrial volume (r=−0.344, p=0.002), and with estimated LAP (r=−0.490, p<0.001) but not with NT-proBNP or lung volumes.

Conclusion

The combination of low peak VO2, high VE/VCO2 slope, low PetCO2, and high respiratory reserve suggests that patients with SSc, without overt cardiac or respiratory disease, present with cardiovascular limitation to exercise. This may be related to latent cardiac dysfunction or pulmonary vascular disease.

Acknowledgement/Funding

This work was partially funded by research grants from GSK, Actelion, and from the Belgian Foundation for Cardiac Surgery.

Insulin glargine compared to neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin in patients with type-2 diabetes uncontrolled with oral anti-diabetic agents alone in Hong Kong: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

International guidelines recommend using basal insulin in patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus if glycaemic target cannot be attained on non-insulin anti-diabetic drugs. Available choices of basal insulin include intermediate-acting neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin and long-acting insulin analogues like insulin glargine U100. Despite clear advantages of glargine U100, the existing practice in Hong Kong still favours NPH insulin due to lower immediate drug costs.

Objectives

The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of insulin glargine U100 compared to NPH insulin in patients with type-2 diabetes uncontrolled with non-insulin anti-diabetic agents alone in Hong Kong.

Methods

The IQVIA™ Core Diabetes Model (CDM) v9.0 was used to conduct the cost-effectiveness analysis of glargine U100 versus NPH. Baseline characteristics were collected from the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry. Efficacy rates were extracted from a published study comparing glargine U100 and NPH in Asia, utilities from published literature, and costs constructed using the Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HA) Gazette (public healthcare setting). The primary outcome was an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

Results

Insulin glargine U100 resulted in an ICER of HKD 98,663 per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) gained. The incremental gains in QALY and costs were 0.217 years and HKD 21,360 respectively. Results from scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were consistent with that from base case analysis.

Conclusion

Insulin glargine U100 is a cost-effective treatment for patients with type 2 diabetes compared to NPH insulin in setting in Hong Kong. This was mainly driven by the significantly lower rates of hypoglycaemia of insulin glargine U100 than NPH insulin.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12962-019-0180-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the SAPIEN 3 TAVI valve compared with surgery in intermediate-risk patients

OBJECTIVE

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has become the therapy of choice for treating severe aortic stenosis in patients at high-risk for surgery or where it is considered too risky to attempt. This uptake varies across geographies however, and its cost or value has frequently been cited as the reason for this. We sought to evaluate the potential cost and clinical impact of TAVI in intermediate risk patients from a French collective perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The analysis was performed using a novel Markov model with data derived from the PARTNER II randomized controlled trial for survival, clinical event rates, and quality-of-life. The simulated time horizon was 15 years, costs were from French sources and presented in 2016 Euros. Discounting of all outcomes was at 4% annually and the effect of uncertainty in model parameters was explored by deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA).

RESULTS

In comparison to surgery, TAVI resulted in improved clinical outcomes (life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy) and lower costs over a lifetime time horizon. The base case results showed increases of 0.42 years and 0.41 QALYs with lifetime cost savings of €439 for TAVI compared to surgery. PSA results showed a >50% likelihood of cost-effectiveness at €0 willingness-to-pay and a 100% likelihood at ∼€15,000.

LIMITATIONS

Clinically, survival projections are based on limited follow-up data and introduce uncertainty into the outcomes from the model. Economically, procedure costs are derived from a heterogeneous mix of patient risk groups, although this is much more likely to bias against TAVI and under-estimate overall cost savings.

CONCLUSIONS

In our analyses of intermediate risk patients, TAVI is associated with superior clinical outcomes compared to surgery and is cost saving. It could be expected that cost savings are conservative and likely to increase over time.

Cost-effectiveness of physical activity in the management of COPD patients in the UK

Background

While the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) guidelines advise exercise to reduce disease progression, little investment in promoting physical activity (PA) is made by health care authorities. The purpose of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of regular PA vs sedentary lifestyle in people with COPD in the UK.

Methods

Efficacy, quality of life, and economic evidence on the PA effects in COPD patients were retrieved from literature to serve as input for a Markov microsimulation model comparing a COPD population performing PA vs a COPD population with sedentary lifestyle. The GOLD classification defined the model health states. For the base case, the cost of PA was estimated at zero, a lifetime horizon was used, and costs and effects were discounted at 3.5%. Analyses were performed from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Uncertainty around inputs and assumptions were explored via scenario and sensitivity analyses, including a cost threshold analysis. Outcomes were cost/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and cost/year gained.

Results

Based on our model, the effects of PA in the UK COPD population would be lower mortality (−6%), fewer hospitalizations (−2%), gains in years (+0.82) and QALYs (+0.66), and total cost savings of £2,568. The cost/QALY and cost/year gained were dominant. PA was cost-saving at costs <£35/month and cost-effective at cost <£202/month. The main model drivers were age and PA impact on death and hospital-treated exacerbations.

Conclusion

Including PA in the management of COPD leads to long-term clinical benefits. If the NHS promotes only exercise via medical advice, this would lead to health care cost savings. If the NHS chose to fund PA, it would still likely be cost-effective.

Cost-Effectiveness of rFVIIa versus pd-aPCC in the Management of Mild to Moderate Bleeds in Pediatric Patients with Hemophilia A with Inhibitors in Mexico

OBJECTIVE

To compare the costs and clinical consequences of treating mild-to-moderate joint bleeds with recombinant activated factor VII (rFVIIa) versus plasma-derived activated prothrombin complex concentrate (pd-aPCC) in pediatric patients with hemophilia A with inhibitors in Mexico.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness model was developed using TreeAge Pro v14.2.2 software (licensed in the USA) and adapted from a previously published model, with adjustments to reflect local clinical practice. Expert opinion was sought regarding patients' clinical management and resource utilization in Mexico to ensure that the current model was appropriate and relevant. The model compared rFVIIa and pd-aPCC for the treatment of mild-to-moderate joint bleeds in children <14 years old (assumed average weight: 30 kg). The analysis outcome was incremental cost per resolved mild-to-moderate joint bleed. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were used to assess specific assumptions and to address any uncertainty in the model.

RESULTS

The cost of treating mild-to-moderate joint bleeds was lower for rFVIIa versus pd-aPCC after 7 days (MX$105,581 vs. MX$132,024), assuming complete bleed resolution. After 48 hours, rFVIIa was associated with an 8% improvement in bleed resolution versus pd-aPCC, resulting in cost savings of MX$16,754. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that rFVIIa treatment was more cost-effective than pd-aPCC in 67% (at 7 days) and 72% (at 48 hours) of Monte Carlo simulations.

CONCLUSION

Accounting for model uncertainty, rFVIIa provided cost savings over pd-aPCC for the Mexican public health care payer in the management of mild-to-moderate joint bleeds in pediatric hemophilia A with inhibitors.

The Cost-effectiveness of a Flash Glucose Monitoring System for Management of Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Receiving Intensive Insulin Treatment in Sweden

Flash glucose monitoring, an alternative to traditional self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG), prevents hypoglycaemic events without impacting glycated haemoglobin (REPLACE trial). Given the potential benefits, this study assessed the cost-effectiveness of using flash monitoring versus SMBG alone in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) receiving intensive insulin treatment in Sweden.Methods: This study used the IQVIA CORE Diabetes Model (IQVIA CDM, v8.5) to simulate the impact of flash monitoring versus SMBG over 40 years from the Swedish societal perspective. Baseline characteristics, intervention effects, and resource utilisation were derived from REPLACE; literature and Tandvårds-Läkemedelförmånsverket (TLV) sources informed utilities and costs. Scenario analyses explored the effect of key base case assumptions. Results: In base case analysis, direct medical costs for flash monitoring use were SEK1,630,586 (€158,523) versus SEK1,459,394 (€141,902) for SMBG use. Flash monitoring led to 0.56 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs; 6.21 versus 5.65 SMBG) for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of SEK306,082/QALY (€29,762/QALY). ICERs for all scenarios remained under SEK400,000/QALY (€38,894/QALY). Conclusions: Hypoglycaemia and health utility benefits due to flash glucose monitoring may translate into economic value compared to SMBG. With robust results across scenario analyses, flash monitoring may be considered cost-effective in a Swedish population of T2D intensive insulin users.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of a Flash Glucose Monitoring System for Patients with Type 1 Diabetes Receiving Intensive Insulin Treatment in Sweden

Flash glucose monitoring - an alternative to traditional self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) - prevents hypoglycaemic events without impacting glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c).21 Given the potential benefits, this study assessed the cost-effectiveness of using flash monitoring versus SMBG alone in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) receiving intensive insulin treatment in Sweden. Methods: This study used the IQVIA CORE Diabetes Model (IQVIA CDM, v9.0) to simulate the impact of flash monitoring versus SMBG over 50 years from the Swedish societal perspective. Trial data informed cohort data, intervention effects, and resource utilisation; literature and Tåndvards-Läkemedelförmånsverket (TLV) sources informed utilities and costs. Scenario analyses explored the effect of key base case assumptions. Results: In base case analysis, direct medical costs for flash monitor use were SEK1,222,333 versus SEK989,051 for SMBG use. Flash monitoring led to 0.80 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs; 13.26 versus 12.46 SMBG) for an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of SEK291,130/QALY. ICERs for all scenarios remained under SEK400,000/QALY. Conclusion: Hypoglycaemia and health utility benefits due to flash glucose monitoring may translate into economic value compared to SMBG. With robust results across scenario analyses, flash monitoring may be considered cost-effective in a Swedish population of T1D intensive insulin users.

Computer Modeling of Diabetes and Its Transparency: A Report on the Eighth Mount Hood Challenge

OBJECTIVES

The Eighth Mount Hood Challenge (held in St. Gallen, Switzerland, in September 2016) evaluated the transparency of model input documentation from two published health economics studies and developed guidelines for improving transparency in the reporting of input data underlying model-based economic analyses in diabetes.

METHODS

Participating modeling groups were asked to reproduce the results of two published studies using the input data described in those articles. Gaps in input data were filled with assumptions reported by the modeling groups. Goodness of fit between the results reported in the target studies and the groups' replicated outputs was evaluated using the slope of linear regression line and the coefficient of determination (R²). After a general discussion of the results, a diabetes-specific checklist for the transparency of model input was developed.

RESULTS

Seven groups participated in the transparency challenge. The reporting of key model input parameters in the two studies, including the baseline characteristics of simulated patients, treatment effect and treatment intensification threshold assumptions, treatment effect evolution, prediction of complications and costs data, was inadequately transparent (and often missing altogether). Not surprisingly, goodness of fit was better for the study that reported its input data with more transparency. To improve the transparency in diabetes modeling, the Diabetes Modeling Input Checklist listing the minimal input data required for reproducibility in most diabetes modeling applications was developed.

CONCLUSIONS

Transparency of diabetes model inputs is important to the reproducibility and credibility of simulation results. In the Eighth Mount Hood Challenge, the Diabetes Modeling Input Checklist was developed with the goal of improving the transparency of input data reporting and reproducibility of diabetes simulation model results.

The cost-utility of dabigatran etexilate compared with warfarin in treatment and extended anticoagulation of acute VTE in the UK

The relative efficacy and safety of dabigatran etexilate and warfarin have been evaluated in two head-to-head, phase III, treatment of acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) trials, and one extended prophylaxis trial, in patients with high risk of recurrent VTE. Dabigatran etexilate demonstrated similar efficacy to warfarin, and was associated with a reduced risk of major or clinically relevant bleeds. Based on results of these trials, and real-life disease prognosis following discontinuation of anticoagulation treatment, we evaluated the cost-utility of dabigatran etexilate compared with warfarin in six months anticoagulation, and in extended, up to 24 months anticoagulation, in patients with acute VTE, acute deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) or acute, symptomatic, pulmonary embolism (PE). Costs were analysed from the perspective of the National Health Services (NHS) and Public Social Services (PSS) in England and Wales. Outcomes were quantified in quality-adjusted life years (QALY). The estimated incremental, lifetime cost/QALY gain following acute, symptomatic VTE (DVT or PE) was £1,252/QALY when dabigatran etexilate or warfarin were administered for up to six months treatment. In treatment of acute, symptomatic PE and in DVT respective ratios were £1,767/QALY and £1,075/QALY. In extended, up to 24 months anticoagulation, dabigatran etexilate projected costs/QALY of £8,242/QALY, when compared with warfarin. Results obtained herein were robust across a number of sensitivity analyses and suggest dabigatran etexilate to be a cost-effective alternative to current standard of care when evaluated in six months treatment and in extended anticoagulation following acute VTE (DVT and/or PE).

Atmospheric tritium concentrations under influence of AREVA NC La Hague reprocessing plant (France) and background levels

In-air tritium measurements were conducted around the AREVA NC La Hague reprocessing plant, as well as on other sites that are not impacted by the nuclear industry in northwest of France. The results indicate that the dominant tritium form around the AREVA site is HT (86%). HT and HTO levels are lower than 5 and 1 Bq. m^-3 for hourly samples taken in the plume. No tritiated organic molecules (TOM) were detected. 26 measurement campaigns were performed and links were established between near-field ⁸⁵Kr, HT and HTO activities. Environmental measurements are in line with those taken at the discharge stack, and tend to demonstrate that there are no rapid changes in the tritium forms released. Out of the influence of any nuclear activities, the levels measured were below 13 mBq.m^-3 for HT and 5 mBq.m^-3 for HTO (<0.5 Bq. L^-1). HTO level in air seems to be influenced by HTO activities in surrounding seawater.

Aging and Time Perception for Short and Long Durations: A Question of Attention?

This study examined the difference in the perception of time between young and older adults in a temporal bisection task with four different duration ranges from a few milliseconds (500 ms) to several seconds (30 s). In addition, individual cognitive capacities (short-term memory, working memory, processing speed, attention) were assessed with different neuropsychological tests. The results showed a general effect of age on the variability of time judgment, indicating a lower sensitivity to time in the old than in the younger adults, regardless of the duration range tested. In addition, the results showed that the individual differences in time sensitivity were explained by attention capacities, which decline with aging.

Assessment of Public Health and Economic Impact of Intranasal Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination of Children in France Using a Dynamic Transmission Model

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the epidemiological and economic impact of extending the French influenza vaccination programme from at-risk/elderly (≥65 years) only to healthy children (2-17 years).

METHODS

A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model was used to simulate the transmission of influenza in the French population, using the current vaccination coverage with trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) in at-risk/elderly individuals (current strategy) or gradually extending the vaccination to healthy children (aged 2-17 years) with intranasal, quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) from current uptake up to 50% (evaluated strategy). Epidemiological, medical resource use and cost data were taken from international literature and country-specific information. The model was calibrated to the observed numbers of influenza-like illness visits/year. The 10-year number of symptomatic cases of confirmed influenza and direct medical costs ('all-payer') were calculated for the 0-17- (direct and indirect effects) and ≥18-year-old (indirect effect). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for the total population, using a 4% discount rate/year.

RESULTS

Assuming 2.3 million visits/year and 1960 deaths/year, the model calibration yielded an all-year average basic reproduction number (R ₀) of 1.27. In the population aged 0-17 years, QLAIV prevented 865,000 influenza cases/year (58.4%), preventing 10-year direct medical expenses of €374 million. In those aged ≥18 years with unchanged TIV coverage, 1.2 million cases/year were averted (27.6%) via indirect effects (additionally prevented expenses, €457 million). On average, 613 influenza-related deaths were averted annually overall. The ICER was €18,001/life-year gained. The evaluated strategy had a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a €31,000/life-year gained threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

The model demonstrated strong direct and indirect benefits of protecting healthy children against influenza with QLAIV on public health and economic outcomes in France.

The VATO project: An original methodology to study the transfer of tritium as HT and HTO in grassland ecosystem

Tritium (³H) is mainly released into the environment by nuclear power plants, military nuclear facilities and nuclear reprocessing plants. The construction of new nuclear facilities in the world as well as the evolution of nuclear fuel management might lead to an increase of ³H discharges from the nuclear industry. The VATO project was set up by IRSN (Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire) and EDF (Electricité de France) to reduce the uncertainties in the knowledge about transfers of ³H from an atmospheric source (currently releasing HT and HTO) to a grassland ecosystem. A fully instrumented technical platform with specifically designed materials was set up downwind of the AREVA NC La Hague reprocessing plant (Northwest of the France). This study, started in 2013, was conducted in four main steps to provide an hourly data set of ³H concentrations in the environment, adequate to develop and/or validate transfer models. It consisted first in characterizing the physico-chemical forms of ³H present in the air around the plant. Then, ³H transfer kinetics to grass were quantified regarding contributions from various compartments of the environment. For this purpose, an original experimental procedure was provided to take account for biases due to rehydration of freeze-dried samples for the determination of OBT activity concentrations in biological samples. In a third step, the ³H concentrations measured in the air and in rainwater were reconstructed at hourly intervals. Finally, a data processing technique was used to determine the biological half-lives of OBT in grass.

Cost versus utility of aclidinium bromide 400 µg plus formoterol fumarate dihydrate 12 µg compared to aclidinium bromide 400 µg alone in the management of moderate-to-severe COPD

Purpose

Aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg is a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) and a long-acting β₂-agonist in a fixed-dose combination used in the management of patients with COPD. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg against the long-acting muscarinic antagonist aclidinium bromide 400 µg.

Materials and methods

A five-health-state Markov transition model with monthly cycles was developed using MS Excel to simulate patients with moderate-to-severe COPD and their initial lung-function improvement following treatment with aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg or aclidinium 400 µg. Health states were based on severity levels defined by Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease 2010 criteria. The analysis was a head-to-head comparison without step-up therapy, from the NHS Scotland perspective, over a 5-year time horizon. Clinical data on initial lung-function improvement were provided by a pooled analysis of the ACLIFORM and AUGMENT trials. Management, event costs, and utilities were health state-specific. Costs and effects were discounted at an annual rate of 3.5%. The outcome of the analysis was expressed as cost (UK£) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The analysis included one way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of parameter uncertainty on model outputs.

Results

Aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg provided marginally higher costs (£41) and more QALYs (0.014), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £2,976/QALY. Sensitivity analyses indicated that results were robust to key parameter variations, and the main drivers were: mean baseline forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁), risk of exacerbation, FEV₁ improvement from aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg, and lung-function decline. The probability of aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg being cost-effective (using a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY) versus aclidinium 400 µg was 79%.

Conclusion

In Scotland, aclidinium–formoterol 400/12 µg can be considered a cost-effective treatment option compared to aclidinium 400 µg alone in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD.