Travel Surveillance and Genomics Uncover a Hidden Zika Outbreak during the Waning Epidemic

The Zika epidemic in the Americas has challenged surveillance and control. As the epidemic appears to be waning, it is unclear whether transmission is still ongoing, which is exacerbated by discrepancies in reporting. To uncover locations with lingering outbreaks, we investigated travel-associated Zika cases to identify transmission not captured by reporting. We uncovered an unreported outbreak in Cuba during 2017, a year after peak transmission in neighboring islands. By sequencing Zika virus, we show that the establishment of the virus was delayed by a year and that the ensuing outbreak was sparked by long-lived lineages of Zika virus from other Caribbean islands. Our data suggest that, although mosquito control in Cuba may initially have been effective at mitigating Zika virus transmission, such measures need to be maintained to be effective. Our study highlights how Zika virus may still be "silently" spreading and provides a framework for understanding outbreak dynamics. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Differing epidemiological dynamics of Chikungunya virus in the Americas during the 2014-2015 epidemic

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has been detected sporadically since the 1950s and includes three distinct co-circulating genotypes. In late 2013, the Asian genotype of CHIKV was responsible for the Caribbean outbreak (CO) that rapidly became an epidemic throughout the Americas. There is a limited understanding of the molecular evolution of CHIKV in the Americas during this epidemic. We sequenced 185 complete CHIKV genomes collected mainly from Nicaragua in Central America and Florida in the United States during the 2014-2015 Caribbean/Americas epidemic. Our comprehensive phylogenetic analyses estimated the epidemic history of the Asian genotype and the recent Caribbean outbreak (CO) clade, revealed considerable genetic diversity within the CO clade, and described different epidemiological dynamics of CHIKV in the Americas. Specifically, we identified multiple introductions in both Nicaragua and Florida, with rapid local spread of viruses in Nicaragua but limited autochthonous transmission in Florida in the US. Our phylogenetic analysis also showed phylogeographic clustering of the CO clade. In addition, we identified the significant amino acid substitutions that were observed across the entire Asian genotype during its evolution and examined amino acid changes that were specific to the CO clade. Deep sequencing analysis identified specific minor variants present in clinical specimens below-consensus levels. Finally, we investigated the association between viral phylogeny and geographic/clinical metadata in Nicaragua. To date, this study represents the largest single collection of CHIKV complete genomes during the Caribbean/Americas epidemic and significantly expands our understanding of the emergence and evolution of CHIKV CO clade in the Americas.

Zika virus evolution and spread in the Americas

Although the recent Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas and its link to birth defects have attracted a great deal of attention, much remains unknown about ZIKV disease epidemiology and ZIKV evolution, in part owing to a lack of genomic data. Here we address this gap in knowledge by using multiple sequencing approaches to generate 110 ZIKV genomes from clinical and mosquito samples from 10 countries and territories, greatly expanding the observed viral genetic diversity from this outbreak. We analysed the timing and patterns of introductions into distinct geographic regions; our phylogenetic evidence suggests rapid expansion of the outbreak in Brazil and multiple introductions of outbreak strains into Puerto Rico, Honduras, Colombia, other Caribbean islands, and the continental United States. We find that ZIKV circulated undetected in multiple regions for many months before the first locally transmitted cases were confirmed, highlighting the importance of surveillance of viral infections. We identify mutations with possible functional implications for ZIKV biology and pathogenesis, as well as those that might be relevant to the effectiveness of diagnostic tests.

Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of Zika virus into the United States

Zika virus (ZIKV) is causing an unprecedented epidemic linked to severe congenital abnormalities. In July 2016, mosquito-borne ZIKV transmission was reported in the continental United States; since then, hundreds of locally acquired infections have been reported in Florida. To gain insights into the timing, source, and likely route(s) of ZIKV introduction, we tracked the virus from its first detection in Florida by sequencing ZIKV genomes from infected patients and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. We show that at least 4 introductions, but potentially as many as 40, contributed to the outbreak in Florida and that local transmission is likely to have started in the spring of 2016-several months before its initial detection. By analysing surveillance and genetic data, we show that ZIKV moved among transmission zones in Miami. Our analyses show that most introductions were linked to the Caribbean, a finding corroborated by the high incidence rates and traffic volumes from the region into the Miami area. Our study provides an understanding of how ZIKV initiates transmission in new regions.