Drivers of resource allocation for breeding under variable environments in a bet hedger

The evolutionary theory of life histories predicts that there is a trade-off between survival and reproduction: since adult survival in long-lived organisms is high, then breeding investment is more variable and more dependent on conditions (e.g. food availability and individual experience). Clutch features influence fitness prospects, but how a bet hedger builds its clutch in temporally varying environments is quite unknown. Using 27-year data on 2847 clutches of known-age breeders, we analyse how Audouin's gulls (Larus audouinii), a species showing a combination of conservative and adaptive bet-hedging breeding strategies, can allocate energy by laying clutches and eggs of different sizes. Results show that both food availability and age influenced clutch size and total egg volume in a clutch. Interestingly, we found an interaction between food and age on egg parameters: total volume in two-egg clutches, laid mostly by younger breeders, did not significantly change with food availability and the quadratic pattern in clutch size over the range of ages was less marked as long as food conditions became harsher. With increased food, females invested more by building larger first eggs, whereas they were more conservative on second and third eggs. Furthermore, asymmetries in egg volume within three-egg clutches increased with food availability for old females. Egg size profiles of two-egg clutches suggest that gulls should exhibit progressive reduction of the size of the third egg before shifting to a two-egg clutch size. Food availability influenced all parameters studied, whereas age affected the amount of energy allocated for producing eggs (their size and number) but not the way of allocating those energies (i.e. asymmetries within the clutch). Despite the range of factors affecting the clutch, results suggest that females can allocate the amount of resources in a clutch optimally to increase their fitness under variable environments via bet-hedging.

Social copying drives a tipping point for nonlinear population collapse

Sudden changes in populations are ubiquitous in ecological systems, especially under perturbations. The agents of global change may increase the frequency and severity of anthropogenic perturbations, but complex populations' responses hamper our understanding of their dynamics and resilience. Furthermore, the long-term environmental and demographic data required to study those sudden changes are rare. Fitting dynamical models with an artificial intelligence algorithm to population fluctuations over 40 y in a social bird reveals that feedback in dispersal after a cumulative perturbation drives a population collapse. The collapse is well described by a nonlinear function mimicking social copying, whereby dispersal made by a few individuals induces others to leave the patch in a behavioral cascade for decision-making to disperse. Once a threshold for deterioration of the quality of the patch is crossed, there is a tipping point for a social response of runaway dispersal corresponding to social copying feedback. Finally, dispersal decreases at low population densities, which is likely due to the unwillingness of the more philopatric individuals to disperse. In providing the evidence of copying for the emergence of feedback in dispersal in a social organism, our results suggest a broader impact of self-organized collective dispersal in complex population dynamics. This has implications for the theoretical study of population and metapopulation nonlinear dynamics, including population extinction, and managing of endangered and harvested populations of social animals subjected to behavioral feedback loops.

Factors affecting survival and dispersal of the comma butterfly in a high mountain deciduous forest habitat

Population and community dynamics of butterflies are relatively well known in Europe thanks to citizen science and academic efforts to cover large spatio–temporal scales. However, there are still gaps of knowledge about which life–history traits have a large influence on the dynamics of particular species and the ecological factors that influence those traits. We conducted a capture–recapture demographic study on the comma butterfly Polygonia c–album in a high mountain deciduous forest. We estimated daily survival in breeding adults caught while foraging on thistles and we calculated the probability of dispersal between two close sites. Thistle growth was enhanced by nitrification in cattle grazing in the study area. Local survival was higher for males (0.920, 95 % CI: 0.851–0.959) than for females (0.869, 95 % CI: 0.799–0.917). Short–range dispersal mostly occurred in absence of wind. Light winds and high levels of solar radiation likely enhanced foraging activity. In contrast with findings in most butterfly demographic studies, recapture rates were significantly higher in females than in males, likely due to the latter moving each afternoon to establish territories along sunny forest edges away from the foraging habitat. Further demographic studies are needed to assess the effects of climate stochasticity and habitat transformation caused by changes in extensive cattle grazing on the population dynamics of the comma butterfly.

Interspecific synchrony on breeding performance and the role of anthropogenic food subsidies

Synchrony can have important consequences for long-term metapopulations persistence, community dynamics and ecosystems functioning. While the causes and consequences of intra-specific synchrony on population size and demographic rates have received considerable attention only a few factors that may affect inter-specific synchrony have been described. We formulate the hypothesis that food subsidies can buffer the influence of environmental stochasticity on community dynamics, disrupting and masking originally synchronized systems. To illustrate this hypothesis, we assessed the consequences of European policies implementation affecting subsidy availability on the temporal synchrony of egg volume as a proxy of breeding investment in two sympatric marine top predators with differential subsidy use. We show how 7-year synchrony appears on egg volume fluctuations after subsidy cessation suggesting that food subsidies could disrupt interspecific synchrony. Moreover, cross correlation increased after subsidy cessation and environmental buffering seems to act during synchronization period. We emphasize that subsidies dynamics and waste management provide novel insights on the emergence of synchrony in natural populations.

Inferring the age of breeders from easily measurable variables

Age drives differences in fitness components typically due to lower performances of younger and senescent individuals, and changes in breeding age structure influence population dynamics and persistence. However, determining age and age structure is challenging in most species, where distinctive age features are lacking and available methods require substantial efforts or invasive procedures. Here we explore the potential to assess the age of breeders, or at least to identify young and senescent individuals, by measuring some breeding parameters partially driven by age (e.g. egg volume in birds). Taking advantage of a long-term population monitored seabird, we first assessed whether age influenced egg volume, and identified other factors driving this trait by using general linear models. Secondly, we developed and evaluated a machine learning algorithm to assess the age of breeders using measurable variables. We confirmed that both younger and older individuals performed worse (less and smaller eggs) than middle-aged individuals. Our ensemble training algorithm was only able to distinguish young individuals, but not senescent breeders. We propose to test the combined use of field monitoring, classic regression analysis and machine learning methods in other wild populations were measurable breeding parameters are partially driven by age, as a possible tool for assessing age structure in the wild.

The First Genome of the Balearic Shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus) Provides a Valuable Resource for Conservation Genomics and Sheds Light on Adaptation to a Pelagic lifestyle

The Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus) is the most threatened seabird in Europe and a member of the most speciose group of pelagic seabirds, the order Procellariiformes, which exhibit extreme adaptations to a pelagic lifestyle. The fossil record suggests that human colonisation of the Balearic Islands resulted in a sharp decrease of the Balearic shearwater population size. Currently, populations of the species continue to be decimated mainly due to predation by introduced mammals and bycatch in longline fisheries, with some studies predicting its extinction by 2070. Here, using a combination of short and long reads, we generate the first high-quality reference genome for the Balearic shearwater, with a completeness amongst the highest across available avian species. We used this reference genome to study critical aspects relevant to the conservation status of the species and to gain insights into the adaptation to a pelagic lifestyle of the order Procellariiformes. We detected relatively high levels of genome-wide heterozygosity in the Balearic shearwater despite its reduced population size. However, the reconstruction of its historical demography uncovered an abrupt population decline potentially linked to a reduction of the neritic zone during the Penultimate Glacial Period (∼194-135 ka). Comparative genomics analyses uncover a set of candidate genes that may have played an important role into the adaptation to a pelagic lifestyle of Procellariiformes, including those for the enhancement of fishing capabilities, night vision, and the development of natriuresis. The reference genome obtained will be the crucial in the future development of genetic tools in conservation efforts for this Critically Endangered species.

Decrease in social cohesion in a colonial seabird under a perturbation regime

Social interactions, through influence on behavioural processes, can play an important role in populations’ resilience (i.e. ability to cope with perturbations). However little is known about the effects of perturbations on the strength of social cohesion in wild populations. Long-term associations between individuals may reflect the existence of social cohesion for seizing the evolutionary advantages of social living. We explore the existence of social cohesion and its dynamics under perturbations by analysing long-term social associations, in a colonial seabird, the Audouin’s gull Larus audouinii, living in a site experiencing a shift to a perturbed regime. Our goals were namely (1) to uncover the occurrence of long-term social ties (i.e. associations) between individuals and (2) to examine whether the perturbation regime affected this form of social cohesion. We analysed a dataset of more than 3500 individuals from 25 years of monitoring by means of contingency tables and within the Social Network Analysis framework. We showed that associations between individuals are not only due to philopatry or random gregariousness but that there are social ties between individuals over the years. Furthermore, social cohesion decreased under the perturbation regime. We sustain that perturbations may lead not only to changes in individuals’ behaviour and fitness but also to a change in populations’ social cohesion. The consequences of decreasing social cohesion are still not well understood, but they can be critical for the population dynamics of social species.

Enhanced, coordinated conservation efforts required to avoid extinction of critically endangered Eastern Pacific leatherback turtles

Failure to improve the conservation status of endangered species is often related to inadequate allocation of conservation resources to highest priority issues. Eastern Pacific (EP) leatherbacks are perhaps the most endangered sea turtle population in the world, and continue on a path to regional extinction. To provide coherent, regional conservation targets, we developed a population viability analysis and examined hypothetical scenarios describing effects of conservation activities that either reduced mortality or increased production of hatchlings (or both). Under status quo conditions, EP leatherbacks will be extirpated in <60 yr. To ensure a positive, long-term population trajectory, conservation efforts must increase adult survivorship (i.e., reduce adult mortality) by ≥20%, largely through reduction of fisheries bycatch mortality. Positive trajectories can be accelerated by increased production of hatchlings through enhanced nest protection and treatment. We estimate that these efforts must save approximately 200-260 adult and subadult leatherbacks and produce approximately 7,000-8,000 more hatchlings annually. Critically, reductions in late-stage mortality must begin within 5 years and reach 20% overall within the next 10-15 years to ensure population stabilization and eventual increase. These outcomes require expanded, sustained, coordinated, high-priority efforts among several entities working at multiple scales. Fortunately, such efforts are underway.

Transience effect in capture-recapture studies: The importance of its biological meaning

Capture-recapture (CR) models are an essential tool for estimating demographic parameters in most animal and some plant populations. To avoid drawing incorrect conclusions in any statistical inference, a crucial prerequisite is to assess the goodness of fit of a general model to the data. In CR models, a frequent cause of lack of fit, is the so-called transience effect, which is due to a lower expectation of re-observation of individuals marked for the first time as compared to other individuals. The transience effect may result either from different biological causes or from the sampling procedure. A transience effect is usually treated by distinguishing at least two age-classes in the survival probability, but other approaches may be more suitable. Here we develop a conceptual and analytical framework for including a transience effect in capture-recapture models. We show the implementation of two additional parametrizations that incorporate a transience effect. With these parametrizations, we can directly estimate the "transience probability" defined as the probability that a newly caught individual disappear from the population beyond what is expected based on the behavior of the previously caught individuals in the same sample. Additionally, these parametrizations allow testing biological hypotheses concerning drivers affecting this probability. Results from our case study show differences between parametrizations, with the parametrization most currently used giving different estimates, especially when including covariates. We advocate for a unifying framework for treating a transience effect, that helps clarifying the ideas and terminology, and where the biological reasons should be the rule for choosing the appropriate analytical procedure. This framework will also open new and powerful ways for the detection and exploration of ecological processes such as the costs of the first reproduction or the deleterious effects of some types of marking.

Immature survival, fertility, and density dependence drive global population dynamics in a long-lived species

Disentangling the influence of demographic parameters and the role of density dependence on species' population dynamics is a challenge, especially when fractions of the population are unobservable. Additionally, due to the difficulty of gathering data at large spatial scales, most studies ignore the global dynamic of a species, which would integrate local heterogeneity dynamics and remove the noise of dispersal. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) at a global scale to disentangle the main demographic drivers of population dynamics in a long-lived species. We used 28 yr of Audouin's Gull demographic data encompassing 69 local patches (comprising 90% of the world population). Importantly, we took into account the unobservable fraction of non-breeders and also assessed the strength of density dependence for this fraction of the population. As predicted by life histories of long-lived organisms, temporal random variation in survival was highest for immature individuals (1.326, 95% credible interval [CRI] 1.290-1.940) and lowest for adults (0.499, 95% CRI 0.487-0.720). Large temporal fluctuations in the probability of taking a reproductive sabbatical would partly explain the consistency in adult survival, with individuals most likely refraining from breeding when environmental conditions were harsh. Immature survival and fertility were the main drivers of population dynamics during the study period (r²  = 0.83, 0.77-0.87 and 0.73, 0.63-0.79, respectively). We found strong evidence of density dependence, not only due to the number of breeders (r²  = -0.34, -0.43 to -0.24) but also due to individuals on sabbatical (r²  = -0.18, -0.33 to -0.01). From a conservation point of view, the species shows a 5% annual global decrease during the last 10 years, and we propose an update of its conservation status. Even though population dynamics of long-lived organisms are very sensitive to changes in adult survival, we show here that, in the absence of strong environmental perturbations affecting this vital rate, fluctuations in population density are mainly driven by variations in survival of immature individuals and fertility. Integrated models based on long-term monitoring at a global scale may enhance our ecological and evolutionary understanding of how demographic drivers influence population dynamics.

Differential adult survival at close seabird colonies: The importance of spatial foraging segregation and bycatch risk during the breeding season

Marine megafauna, including seabirds, are critically affected by fisheries bycatch. However, bycatch risk may differ on temporal and spatial scales due to the uneven distribution and effort of fleets operating different fishing gear, and to focal species distribution and foraging behavior. Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea is a long-lived seabird that experiences high bycatch rates in longline fisheries and strong population-level impacts due to this type of anthropogenic mortality. Analyzing a long-term dataset on individual monitoring, we compared adult survival (by means of multi-event capture-recapture models) among three close predator-free Mediterranean colonies of the species. Unexpectedly for a long-lived organism, adult survival varied among colonies. We explored potential causes of this differential survival by (1) measuring egg volume as a proxy of food availability and parental condition; (2) building a specific longline bycatch risk map for the species; and (3) assessing the distribution patterns of breeding birds from the three study colonies via GPS tracking. Egg volume was very similar between colonies over time, suggesting that environmental variability related to habitat foraging suitability was not the main cause of differential survival. On the other hand, differences in foraging movements among individuals from the three colonies expose them to differential mortality risk, which likely influenced the observed differences in adult survival. The overlap of information obtained by the generation of specific bycatch risk maps, the quantification of population demographic parameters, and the foraging spatial analysis should inform managers about differential sensitivity to the anthropogenic impact at mesoscale level and guide decisions depending on the spatial configuration of local populations. The approach would apply and should be considered in any species where foraging distribution is colony-specific and mortality risk varies spatially.

Predator arrival elicits differential dispersal, change in age structure and reproductive performance in a prey population

Predators are an important ecological and evolutionary force shaping prey population dynamics. Ecologists have extensively assessed the lethal effects of invasive predators on prey populations. However, the role of non-lethal effects, such as physiological stress or behavioural responses like dispersal, has been comparatively overlooked and their potential population effects remain obscure. Over the last 23 years, we developed a mark-recapture program for the Audouin's gull and an intensive carnivore monitoring program to assess how the appearance and invasion of the study site by carnivores affects population dynamics. We evaluate changes in turnover of discrete breeding patches within the colony, age structure and breeding performance. Once carnivores entered the colony, the number of occupied patches increased, indicating a higher patch turnover. Breeders responded by moving to areas less accessible to carnivores. More importantly, the presence of carnivores caused differential (and density-independent) breeding dispersal: experienced, better-performing breeders were more likely to leave the colony than younger breeders. This differential dispersal modified the age structure and reduced the reproductive performance of the population. Our results confirm the importance experience in the study of populations. The role of differential dispersal for animal population dynamics might be more important than previously thought, especially under scenarios of global change.

Varying demographic impacts of different fisheries on three Mediterranean seabird species

Fisheries have an enormous economic importance, but reconciling their socio-economic features with the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems presents major challenges. Bycatch mortality from fisheries is clearly among the most serious global threats for marine ecosystems, affecting a wide range of top predators. Recent estimates report ca. 200,000 seabirds killed annually by bycatch in European waters. However, there is an urgent need to rigorously estimate actual mortality rates and quantify effects of bycatch on populations. The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most impacted regions. Here, we estimate for the first time both bycatch mortality rates and their population-level effects on three endemic and vulnerable Mediterranean taxa: Scopoli's shearwater, Mediterranean shag, and Audouin's gull, that die in different types of fishing gears: longlines, gillnets and sport trolling, respectively. We use multi-event capture-recapture modelling to estimate crucial demographic parameters, including the probabilities of dying in different fishing gears. We then build stochastic demography models to forecast the viability of the populations under different management scenarios. Longline bycatch was particularly severe for adults of Scopoli's shearwaters and Audouin's gulls (ca. 28% and 23% of total mortality, respectively) and also for immature gulls (ca. 90% of mortality). Gillnets had a lower impact, but were still responsible for ca. 9% of juvenile mortality on shags, whereas sport trolling only slightly influenced total mortality in gulls. Bycatch mortality has high population-level impacts in all three species, with shearwaters having the highest extinction risk under current mortality rates. Different life-history traits and compensatory demographic mechanisms between the three species are probably influencing the different bycatch impact: for shearwaters, urgent conservation actions are required to ensure the viability of their populations. Results will be very useful for guiding future seabird conservation policies and moving towards an ecosystem-based approach to sustainable fisheries management.

Colonisation in social species: the importance of breeding experience for dispersal in overcoming information barriers

Studying colonisation is crucial to understand metapopulations, evolutionary ecology and species resilience to global change. Unfortunately, few empirical data are available because field monitoring that includes empty patches at large spatiotemporal scales is required. We examine the colonisation dynamics of a long-lived seabird over 34 years in the western Mediterranean by comparing population and individual data from both source colony and the newly-formed colonies. Since social information is not available, we hypothesize that colonisation should follow particular dispersal dynamics and personal information must be crucial in decision making. We test if adverse breeding conditions trigger colonisation events, if personal information plays a role in colonisation and if colonisers experience greater fitness. Our results show a temporal mismatch between colonisation events and both density-dependence and perturbations at the source colony, probably because colonisers needed a longer prospecting period to compensate for the lack of public information. Colonisers were mostly experienced individuals gaining higher breeding success in the new colony. Our results highlight the demographic value that experienced individuals can have on metapopulation dynamics of social long-lived organisms.

Consecutive cohort effects driven by density-dependence and climate influence early-life survival in a long-lived bird

Conditions during early life, including maternal cohort effects, can influence the future fitness of individuals. This may be particularly true for long-distance migrating birds, because, apart from conditions experienced by cohorts during rearing, conditions during early life in regions far from breeding grounds may also influence their population dynamics. Very little is known about the fitness consequences of those conditions experienced by juveniles after independence, especially in wild populations and for long-lived birds. We used multi-event capture-recapture-recovery models and a unique 26-year dataset for the Audouin's gull (Larus audouinii) to assess for the first time whether survival was influenced by early conditions, both during the rearing period (i.e. a maternal cohort effect potentially affected by density dependence) and the first winter (i.e. a cohort effect driven by climate when birds disperse to wintering grounds). Our results show that juvenile survival was highly sensitive to early-life conditions and that survival decreased with stronger density dependence and harsh climate. The two consecutive cohort effects were of similar magnitude and they may represent a selection filter. Thus, early-life conditions had a strong impact on survival, and neglecting this complexity may hinder our understanding on how populations of long-lived animals fluctuate and respond to perturbations.

Evaluating mortality rates with a novel integrated framework for nonmonogamous species

The conservation of wildlife requires management based on quantitative evidence, and especially for large carnivores, unraveling cause-specific mortalities and understanding their impact on population dynamics is crucial. Acquiring this knowledge is challenging because it is difficult to obtain robust long-term data sets on endangered populations and, usually, data are collected through diverse sampling strategies. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a way to integrate data generated through different processes. However, IPMs are female-based models that cannot account for mate availability, and this feature limits their applicability to monogamous species only. We extended classical IPMs to a two-sex framework that allows investigation of population dynamics and quantification of cause-specific mortality rates in nonmonogamous species. We illustrated our approach by simultaneously modeling different types of data from a reintroduced, unhunted brown bear (Ursus arctos) population living in an area with a dense human population. In a population mainly driven by adult survival, we estimated that on average 11% of cubs and 61% of adults died from human-related causes. Although the population is currently not at risk, adult survival and thus population dynamics are driven by anthropogenic mortality. Given the recent increase of human-bear conflicts in the area, removal of individuals for management purposes and through poaching may increase, reversing the positive population growth rate. Our approach can be generalized to other species affected by cause-specific mortality and will be useful to inform conservation decisions for other nonmonogamous species, such as most large carnivores, for which data are scarce and diverse and thus data integration is highly desirable.

Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population

Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate-driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual-based data on a trans-equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large-scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λ_i , estimated using local climate-driven parameters with ρ_i , a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λ_i varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate-dependent parameters, ρ_i did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate-driven projections.

Colony Foundation in an Oceanic Seabird

Seabirds are colonial vertebrates that despite their great potential for long-range dispersal and colonization are reluctant to establish in novel locations, often recruiting close to their natal colony. The foundation of colonies is therefore a rare event in most seabird species and little is known about the colonization process in this group. The Cory’s shearwater (Calonectris diomedea) is a pelagic seabird that has recently established three new colonies in Galicia (NE Atlantic) thus expanding its distribution range 500 km northwards. This study aimed to describe the establishment and early progress of the new Galician populations and to determine the genetic and morphometric characteristics of the individuals participating in these foundation events. Using 10 microsatellite loci, we tested the predictions supported by different seabird colonization models. Possibly three groups of non-breeders, adding up to around 200 birds, started visiting the Galician colonies in the mid 2000’s and some of them eventually laid eggs and reproduced, thus establishing new breeding colonies. The Galician populations showed a high genetic diversity and a frequency of private alleles similar to or even higher than some of the large historical populations. Most individuals were assigned to several Atlantic populations and a few (if any) to Mediterranean colonies. Our study suggests that a large and admixed population is settling in Galicia, in agreement with predictions from island metapopulation models of colonization. Multiple source colonies imply that some birds colonizing Galicia were dispersing from very distant colonies (> 1500 km). Long-distance colonizations undertaken by relatively large and admixed groups of colonizers can help to explain the low levels of genetic structure over vast areas that are characteristic of most oceanic seabird species.

Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature-dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival

Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years.

Neighbouring populations, opposite dynamics: influence of body size and environmental variation on the demography of stream-resident brown trout (Salmo trutta)

In organisms such as fish, where body size is considered an important state variable for the study of their population dynamics, size-specific growth and survival rates can be influenced by local variation in both biotic and abiotic factors, but few studies have evaluated the complex relationships between environmental variability and size-dependent processes. We analysed a 6-year capture-recapture dataset of brown trout (Salmo trutta) collected at 3 neighbouring but heterogeneous mountain streams in northern Spain with the aim of investigating the factors shaping the dynamics of local populations. The influence of body size and water temperature on survival and individual growth was assessed under a multi-state modelling framework, an extension of classical capture-recapture models that considers the state (i.e. body size) of the individual in each capture occasion and allows us to obtain state-specific demographic rates and link them to continuous environmental variables. Individual survival and growth patterns varied over space and time, and evidence of size-dependent survival was found in all but the smallest stream. At this stream, the probability of reaching larger sizes was lower compared to the other wider and deeper streams. Water temperature variables performed better in the modelling of the highest-altitude population, explaining over a 99 % of the variability in maturation transitions and survival of large fish. The relationships between body size, temperature and fitness components found in this study highlight the utility of multi-state approaches to investigate small-scale demographic processes in heterogeneous environments, and to provide reliable ecological knowledge for management purposes.

Ecological and evolutionary implications of food subsidies from humans

Human activities are the main current driver of global change. From hunter-gatherers through to Neolithic societies-and particularly in contemporary industrialised countries-humans have (voluntarily or involuntarily) provided other animals with food, often with a high spatio-temporal predictability. Nowadays, as much as 30-40% of all food produced in Earth is wasted. We argue here that predictable anthropogenic food subsidies (PAFS) provided historically by humans to animals has shaped many communities and ecosystems as we see them nowadays. PAFS improve individual fitness triggering population increases of opportunistic species, which may affect communities, food webs and ecosystems by altering processes such as competition, predator-prey interactions and nutrient transfer between biotopes and ecosystems. We also show that PAFS decrease temporal population variability, increase resilience of opportunistic species and reduce community diversity. Recent environmental policies, such as the regulation of dumps or the ban of fishing discards, constitute natural experiments that should improve our understanding of the role of food supply in a range of ecological and evolutionary processes at the ecosystem level. Comparison of subsidised and non-subsidised ecosystems can help predict changes in diversity and the related ecosystem services that have suffered the impact of other global change agents.

The role of calcium in constraining egg synthesis in the Audouin’s Gull (Ichthyaetus audouinii)

Understanding how resources are allocated to form eggs is crucial to our better understanding of avian reproductive strategies. However, little is currently known about how egg synthesis in wild birds might be constrained by the availability of specific micronutrients. Here, we investigated the potential role of calcium (Ca) in constraining egg synthesis in the Audouin’s Gull (Ichthyaetus audouinii (Payraudeau, 1826)). In particular, we evaluated the relationship between plasma Ca levels (mg/dL) in incubating females (as an indicator of the physiological response of females to increased Ca demand associated with clutch production) and several fitness-related egg traits such as egg size (i.e., egg volume), egg shape, and eggshell thickness from three-egg clutches. Egg size was positively related with incubating female plasma Ca levels, with the slope of this relationship being significantly higher for later-laid eggs. The observational nature of this study and reversed timing precludes causal inferences, but observed relationships supported the constraining role of Ca in egg synthesis and suggested that Ca may also have a role in modulating the intraclutch pattern of egg-size variation typical of this gull species.

Population structure and dispersal patterns within and between Atlantic and Mediterranean populations of a large-range pelagic seabird

Dispersal is critically linked to the demographic and evolutionary trajectories of populations, but in most seabird species it may be difficult to estimate. Using molecular tools, we explored population structure and the spatial dispersal pattern of a highly pelagic but philopatric seabird, the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea. Microsatellite fragments were analysed from samples collected across almost the entire breeding range of the species. To help disentangle the taxonomic status of the two subspecies described, the Atlantic form C. d. borealis and the Mediterranean form C. d. diomedea, we analysed genetic divergence between subspecies and quantified both historical and recent migration rates between the Mediterranean and Atlantic basins. We also searched for evidence of isolation by distance (IBD) and addressed spatial patterns of gene flow. We found a low genetic structure in the Mediterranean basin. Conversely, strong genetic differentiation appeared in the Atlantic basin. Even if the species was mostly philopatric (97%), results suggest recent dispersal between basins, especially from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean (aprox. 10% of migrants/generation across the last two generations). Long-term gene flow analyses also suggested an historical exchange between basins (about 70 breeders/generation). Spatial analysis of genetic variation indicates that distance is not the main factor in shaping genetic structure in this species. Given our results we recommend gathering more data before concluded whether these taxa should be treated as two species or subspecies.

Determinants of extinction-colonization dynamics in Mediterranean butterflies: the role of landscape, climate and local habitat features

Many species are found today in the form of fragmented populations occupying patches of remnant habitat in human-altered landscapes. The persistence of these population networks requires a balance between extinction and colonization events assumed to be primarily related to patch area and isolation, but the contribution of factors such as the characteristics of patch and matrix habitats, the species' traits (habitat specialization and dispersal capabilities) and variation in climatic conditions have seldom been evaluated simultaneously. The identification of environmental variables associated with patch occupancy and turnover may be especially useful to enhance the persistence of multiple species under current global change. However, for robust inference on occupancy and related parameters, we must account for detection errors, a commonly overlooked problem that leads to biased estimates and misleading conclusions about population dynamics. Here, we provide direct empirical evidence of the effects of different environmental variables on the extinction and colonization rates of a rich butterfly community in the western Mediterranean. The analysis was based on a 17-year data set containing detection/nondetection data on 73 butterfly species for 26 sites in north-eastern Spain. Using multiseason occupancy models, which take into account species' detectability, we were able to obtain robust estimates of local extinction and colonization probabilities for each species and test the potential effects of site covariates such as the area of suitable habitat, topographic variability, landscape permeability around the site and climatic variability in aridity conditions. Results revealed a general pattern across species with local habitat composition and landscape features as stronger predictors of occupancy dynamics compared with topography and local aridity. Increasing area of suitable habitat in a site strongly decreased local extinction risks and, for a number of species, both higher amounts of suitable habitat and more permeable landscapes increased colonization rates. Nevertheless, increased topographic variability decreased the extinction risk of bad dispersers, a group of species with significantly lower colonization rates. Our models predicted higher sensitivity of the butterfly assemblages to deterministic changes in habitat features rather than to stochastic weather patterns, with some relationships being clearly dependent on the species' traits.

Contrasting effects of climatic variability on the demography of a trans-equatorial migratory seabird

Large-scale seasonal climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), account for major variations in weather and climate around the world and may influence population dynamics in many organisms. However, assessing the extent of climate impacts on species and their life-history traits requires reliable quantitative statistical approaches. We used a new analytical tool in mark-recapture, the multi-event modelling, to simultaneously assess the influence of climatic variation on multiple demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, transient probability, reproductive skipping and nest dispersal) at two Mediterranean colonies of the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, a trans-equatorial migratory long-lived seabird. We also analysed the impact of climate in the breeding success at the two colonies. We found a clear temporal variation of survival for Cory's shearwaters, strongly associated to the large-scale SOI especially in one of the colonies (up to 66% of variance explained). Atlantic hurricane season is modulated by the SOI and coincides with shearwater migration to their wintering areas, directly affecting survival probabilities. However, the SOI was a better predictor of survival probabilities than the frequency of hurricanes; thus, we cannot discard an indirect additive effect of SOI via food availability. Accordingly, the proportion of transients was also correlated with SOI values, indicating higher costs of first reproduction (resulting in either mortality or permanent dispersal) when bad environmental conditions occurred during winter before reproduction. Breeding success was also affected by climatic factors, the NAO explaining c. 41% of variance, probably as a result of its effect in the timing of peak abundance of squid and small pelagics, the main prey for shearwaters. No climatic effect was found either on reproductive skipping or on nest dispersal. Contrarily to what we expect for a long-lived organism, large-scale climatic indexes had a more pronounced effect on survival and transient probabilities than on less sensitive fitness parameters such reproductive skipping or nest dispersal probabilities. The potential increase in hurricane frequency because of global warming may interact with other global change agents (such as incidental bycatch and predation by alien species) nowadays impacting shearwaters, affecting future viability of populations.

Exploiting uncertain ecological fieldwork data with multi-event capture--recapture modelling: an example with bird sex assignment

1. Sex plays a crucial role in evolutionary life histories. However, the inclusion of sex in demographic analysis may be a challenge in fieldwork, particularly in monomorphic species. Although behavioural data may help us to sex individuals in the field, this kind of data is unlikely to be error free and is usually discarded. 2. Here we propose a multi-event capture-recapture model that enables us to exploit uncertain field observations regarding the sex of individuals based on behavioural or morphological criteria. The multi-event capture-recapture model allows us to account for sex uncertainty not restricting our ability to estimate the parameters of interest. In this case, by adding the confirmed sex of just a few individuals, we greatly improve the efficiency of the optimization algorithm. 3. Using such an approach, we analysed sex differences in demographic parameters (e.g. survival, transience and sex ratio) in a population of Audouin's gulls using observations from long-term fieldwork monitoring (1988-2007). We also assessed the probability of ascertaining sex over time and the probability of error for each field-sexing criterion. 4. We detected no strong effect of sex on either survival or transience probabilities, and both sexes showed a decreasing trend in survival over time and transience probability after recruitment increased with age and over time. The probability of ascertaining sex over time depended on observers' experience. Strikingly, courtship feeding (but not copulation) emerged as the most reliable clue for sexing individuals, which would suggest that Audouin's gulls engage in same-sex sexual behaviour such as same-sex mounting. 5. The present modelling emerged as a reliable method for estimating demographic parameters and state transition parameters in ecological studies in which field observations of sex or other individual states are assigned erroneously and uncertainly. This approach could also be useful for applied ecologists for assessing the reliability of their criteria for assigning sex or other individual covariates in the field, thereby permitting them to optimizing their field ecological protocols.

Genetic and phenotypic differentiation between the critically endangered Balearic shearwater and neighboring colonies of its sibling species

Understanding the demographic and evolutionary processes within and between populations is essential for developing effective management strategies. Thus, for establishing good conservation policies both genetic and phenotypic studies are crucial. We carried out an integrated analysis of genetic and phenotypic characters of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus (182 individuals) and compared them with those of 2 nearby colonies of Yelkouan shearwater P. yelkouan (40 individuals), a species for which hybridization has been hypothesized. The results of the microsatellite analyses were compared with previous mitochondrial DNA analyses. Genetic variability was low in the Balearic shearwater and high levels of inbreeding were revealed at local scale. Most dispersal in Balearic shearwaters was to neighboring sites, even though low levels of population structure were found. The admixture between the 2 species was much higher at nuclear than at mitochondrial level, but phenotypic characters would seem to indicate that a lower level of admixture exists. Individual nuclear DNA, mtDNA, and phenotype did not match at individual level, showing that migration alone cannot explain this phenomenon. We suggest that these 2 young shearwater species could have been involved in processes of divergence and admixing. However, due to the longer coalescence times in nuclear markers, incomplete lineage sorting cannot be ruled out.

Studying the reproductive skipping behavior in long-lived birds by adding nest inspection to individual-based data

The frequency at which individuals breed is an important parameter in population, as well as in evolutionary, studies. However, when nonbreeding individuals are absent from the study area, the reproductive skipping is usually confounded with a recapture failure and cannot be estimated directly. Yet, there are situations in which external information may help to estimate reproductive skipping. Such a situation is found with nest-tenacious birds: the fact that an individual is not encountered in its previous nest is a good indication that it must be skipping reproduction. We illustrate here a general probabilistic framework in which we merged the classical individual capture-recapture information with nest-based information to obtain the simultaneous estimate of recapture, survival, reproductive skipping, and within-colony breeding dispersal probabilities using multi-event models. We applied this approach to Cory's Shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), a long-lived burrow-nesting seabird. By comparing results with those obtained from the analysis of the capture-recapture information alone, we showed that the model separates successfully the probabilities of recapture from those of temporal emigration. We found that the probabilities of future reproduction and breeding-site fidelity were lower for individuals temporarily absent from the colony, suggesting a lower intrinsic quality of intermittent breeders. The new probabilistic framework presented here allowed us to refine the estimates of demographic parameters by simply adding nest-based data, a type of information usually collected in the field but never included in the analysis of individual-based data. Our approach also provides a new and flexible way to test hypotheses on temporal emigration and breeding dispersal in longitudinal data.

The young, the weak and the sick: evidence of natural selection by predation

It is assumed that predators mainly prey on substandard individuals, but even though some studies partially support this idea, evidence with large sample sizes, exhaustive analysis of prey and robust analysis is lacking. We gathered data from a culling program of yellow-legged gulls killed by two methods: by the use of raptors or by shooting at random. We compared both data sets to assess whether birds of prey killed randomly or by relying on specific individual features of the prey. We carried out a meticulous post-mortem examination of individuals, and analysing multiple prey characteristics simultaneously we show that raptors did not hunt randomly, but rather preferentially predate on juveniles, sick gulls, and individuals with poor muscle condition. Strikingly, gulls with an unusually good muscle condition were also predated more than expected, supporting the mass-dependent predation risk theory. This article provides a reliable example of how natural selection may operate in the wild and proves that predators mainly prey on substandard individuals.

Polymorphic microsatellite markers for the critically endangered Balearic shearwater, Puffinus mauretanicus

Ten novel polymorphic microsatellite loci were isolated and characterized from the Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus), a critically endangered seabird. The developed loci revealed a relatively low number of alleles per locus, as well as low levels of polymorphism (H(O)  = 0.377 ± 0.241). One of the loci appeared to be W-linked. All polymorphic loci were successfully amplified in its closely related species, the Yelkouan shearwater (Puffinus yelkouan). These microsatellite markers would be useful for assessing population structure in the Balearic shearwater and the possible hybridization process between both shearwaters species.

Digit length may reveal unusual breeding behaviour in a seabird

The hormonal environment experienced during prenatal development may affect adult phenotype and behaviour. Digit lengths may provide an estimate of steroid levels encountered during embryonic development in humans and other vertebrates. Finger patterns in humans have been shown to reveal sexual orientation or cooperative behaviour. We explored individual breeding behaviour in a monogamous seabird, the Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus and unexpectedly detected some cooperative breeders. Furthermore, we show evidence of correlation between digit lengths and cooperative breeding in this species. Additionally, we suggest that the first digit could be a possible indicator of prenatal steroid levels. These results are the starting point for further tests of the hypothesis that first digit length is an indicator of prenatal hormone levels in other vertebrate species. Moreover, these results may offer practical use in wild populations to study the implications of the changes in prenatal environment for adult social behaviour.

Influence of density dependence on predator-prey seabird interactions at large spatio-temporal scales

Theoretical investigations of competitive dynamics have noted that numbers of predator and prey influence each other. However, few empirical studies have demonstrated how a life-history trait of the prey (such as fecundity) can be affected simultaneously by its own density and the density of predators. For instance, density dependence can reduce fecundity with increasing number of prey, while inverse density dependence or Allee effects may occur especially when the prey is a social organism. Here we analysed an intraguild predator-prey system of two seabird species at a large spatio-temporal scale. As expected, we found that fecundity of prey was negatively affected by predator density. Nevertheless, fecundity of prey also increased nonlinearly with its own density and strikingly with the prey-predator ratio. Small groups of prey were probably not able to defend their nests especially against large number of predators. At the highest prey densities (i.e. when anti-predator strategies should be most efficient), prey fecundity also lowered, suggesting the appearance of density dependence mediated by food competition. Allee effects and density dependence occurred across a broad range of population sizes of both the prey and the predator at several local populations facing different ecological environments.

Offspring sex ratios in subcolonies of Audouin's gull, Larus audouinii, with differential breeding performance

At the Ebro River delta colony in the western Mediterranean Sea, Audouin's gull, Larus audouinii, breeds in discrete aggregations called subcolonies, which showed strong differences in breeding parameters such as egg volume or breeding success. Egg parameters (such as size of both eggs and clutches) are strongly influenced by food availability. As all subcolonies are in the same area, differences in egg parameters might reflect different individuals' foraging efficiency. We measured mean clutch volumes in different subcolonies and chose those subcolonies that showed the greatest differences in this measure, which should indicate differences in parental body condition. Between these subcolonies we would expect, in turn, differences in offspring sex ratios. We took blood samples at hatching and fledging from chicks at these subcolonies and compared offspring sex ratios by means of molecular sexing. The proportions of young breeders differed between these subcolonies, and the subcolony with the greater proportion of young breeders produced smaller eggs and had lower breeding success. However, we did not detect any bias in progeny sex ratio, which probably indicates that if parental condition is not extremely reduced, selective pressures are insufficient to overcome the constraints imposed by Mendelian segregation of chromosomes.

Testing the intergenerational conflict hypothesis: factors affecting adoptions in Audouin's gulls, Larus audouinii

We studied chick adoption in Audouin's gull, Larus audouinii, a ground-nesting seabird, to test several predictions made by the intergenerational-conflict hypothesis (ICH). The effects of food availability on adoptions were considered by comparing two breeding seasons with differing food supply. As predicted, adoptions were significantly more frequent when food was in shorter supply (48% of broods affected) than when it was more available (18.5%). Adoptions occurred during the first week of the chick-rearing stage; after that, aggression by adults towards intruding chicks increased significantly, which suggests that mechanisms of parent-offspring recognition were established. Foster parents incurred certain costs, since their offspring had lower chances of survival than those in control broods. However, contrary to the ICH hypothesis, adoptees did not select foster broods in relation to the age of the resident chicks. Survival of wandering chicks was no higher than that of chicks who stayed in their natal brood. Results suggest that chicks move only as a response to neighboring chicks being fed by an adult, and in Audouin's gulls, adoptions might be considered reproductive errors.