District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Tropical Data: Approach and Methodology as Applied to Trachoma Prevalence Surveys

PURPOSE

Population-based prevalence surveys are essential for decision-making on interventions to achieve trachoma elimination as a public health problem. This paper outlines the methodologies of Tropical Data, which supports work to undertake those surveys.

METHODS

Tropical Data is a consortium of partners that supports health ministries worldwide to conduct globally standardised prevalence surveys that conform to World Health Organization recommendations. Founding principles are health ministry ownership, partnership and collaboration, and quality assurance and quality control at every step of the survey process. Support covers survey planning, survey design, training, electronic data collection and fieldwork, and data management, analysis and dissemination. Methods are adapted to meet local context and needs. Customisations, operational research and integration of other diseases into routine trachoma surveys have also been supported.

RESULTS

Between 29th February 2016 and 24th April 2023, 3373 trachoma surveys across 50 countries have been supported, resulting in 10,818,502 people being examined for trachoma.

CONCLUSION

This health ministry-led, standardised approach, with support from the start to the end of the survey process, has helped all trachoma elimination stakeholders to know where interventions are needed, where interventions can be stopped, and when elimination as a public health problem has been achieved. Flexibility to meet specific country contexts, adaptation to changes in global guidance and adjustments in response to user feedback have facilitated innovation in evidence-based methodologies, and supported health ministries to strive for global disease control targets.

Evaluation of facial cleanliness and environmental improvement activities: Lessons learned from Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda

The World Health Organization promotes the SAFE (Surgery, Antibiotics, Facial cleanliness, and Environmental improvements) strategy for trachoma control and prevention. The F&E components of the strategy focus on promotion of healthy hygiene and sanitation behaviors. In order to monitor F&E activities implemented across villages and schools in Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda, an F&E Monitoring and Evaluation (FEME) framework was developed to track quarterly program outputs and to provide the basis for a pre and post evaluation of the activities. Results showed an increase in knowledge at the school and household levels, and in some cases, an increase in presence of hand/face washing stations. However, this did not always result in a change in trachoma prevention behaviors such as facial cleanliness or keeping compounds free of human feces. The results highlight that the F&E programs were effective in increasing awareness of trachoma prevention but not able to translate that knowledge into changes in behavior during the time between pre and post-surveys. This study also indicates the potential to improve the data collection and survey design and notes that the period of intervention was not long enough to measure significant changes.

Trachoma control programs promote facial cleanliness, use of latrines, and emphasizes the importance of access to water as means to reduce trachoma transmission. To address these areas, various country ministries and supporting non-governmental organizations (NGOs) support the implementation of tailored behavior change programs. The process and results of evaluating these types of programs in Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda are described here. The goal of this manuscript is to provide trachoma program managers and supporting NGOs with insights, recommendations, and data collection tools that could be used to support their efforts to conduct monitoring and evaluation of their current or future trachoma prevention activities.

Pgp3 seroprevalence and associations with active trachoma and ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection in Malawi: cross-sectional surveys in six evaluation units

BACKGROUND

Following one to five years of antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) for the elimination of trachoma as a public health problem, programmes must conduct impact surveys to inform decisions on whether MDA is still needed. These decisions are currently based on the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF), which, after MDA, correlates poorly with prevalence of ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Impact surveys in six evaluation units (EUs) of Malawi were used as a platform to explore associations between the prevalence of TF, ocular C. trachomatis infection and anti-Pgp3 antibodies one year after the third annual round of MDA. Participants were examined for trachoma using the World Health Organization simplified grading system. Ocular swabs and dried blood spots (DBS) were collected from children aged 1-9 years. Swabs were tested for C. trachomatis DNA using GeneXpert. DBS were assayed for anti-Pgp3 antibodies using ELISA. EU-level prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years ranged from 4.7% (95% CI 3.4-6.3) to 7.2% (95% CI 5.8-8.9). Prevalence of C. trachomatis infection in children ranged from 0.1% (95% CI 0.0-0.6) to 0.7% (95% CI 0.3-1.3) while Pgp3 seroprevalence ranged from 6.9% (95% CI 5.4-8.6) to 12.0% (95% CI 10.1-14.0) and increased with age.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Based on current global policy, the prevalence of TF indicates that a further year of antibiotic MDA is warranted in four of six EUs yet the very low levels of infection cast doubt on the universal applicability of TF-based cut-offs for antibiotic MDA. Pgp3 seroprevalence was similar to that reported following MDA in other settings that have reached the elimination target however the predictive value of any particular level of seropositivity with respect to risk of subsequent infection recrudescence is, as yet, unknown.

One round of azithromycin MDA adequate to interrupt transmission in districts with prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular of 5.0-9.9%: Evidence from Malawi

Background

As highly trachoma-endemic countries approach elimination, some districts will have prevalences of trachomatous inflammation–follicular in 1–9-year-olds (TF_1-9) of 5.0–9.9%. The World Health Organization (WHO) previously recommended that in such districts, TF prevalence be assessed in each sub-district (groupings of at least three villages), with three rounds of azithromycin treatment offered to any sub-district in which TF≥10%. Given the large number of endemic districts worldwide and the human and financial resources required to conduct surveys, this recommendation may not be practical. In a group of 8 Malawi districts with baseline TF prevalences of 5.0–9.9%, the Malawi Ministry of Health administered one round of azithromycin mass treatment, to the whole of each district, achieving mean coverage of ~80%. Here, we report impact surveys conducted after that treatment.

Methods

We undertook population-based trachoma surveys in 18 evaluation units of the 8 treated districts, at least 6 months after the MDA. The standardized training package and survey methodologies of Tropical Data, which conform to WHO recommendations, were used.

Results

Each of the 18 evaluation units had a TF_1-9 prevalence <5.0%.

Conclusion

The study demonstrates that in Malawi districts with TF of 5.0–9.9%, one round of azithromycin MDA with ~80% coverage associates with a reduction in TF prevalence to <5%. Further evidence for this approach should be collected elsewhere.

Until now, in trachoma elimination programmes, the WHO recommendation for district-wide annual rounds of antibiotic mass drug administration was only applicable to districts with a trachomatous inflammation—follicular (TF_1-9) prevalence of 10% or more. Districts with a TF_1-9 prevalence of <5% were considered not to require intervention with antibiotics for trachoma. For districts with a prevalence of 5.0–9.9%, programmes were encouraged to determine the TF_1-9 prevalence at sub-district or “community” level. With the recent rapid scale-up in trachoma mapping, there are now a large number of districts known to have TF_1-9 prevalence of 5.0–9.9%, so this recommendation is likely to pose an implementation challenge to health ministries and their partners. In this study, we have demonstrated that in districts with TF_1-9 5.0–9.9%, a single round of mass drug administration with high coverage to the whole district can be followed by an impact survey TF_1-9 prevalences of <5%. This approach is likely to reduce the commodity need (one round of MDA to 100% of the population compared to 3 or more rounds to an average 50% of the population), reduce the number of surveys required, and ultimately accelerate the speed of progress to elimination. We recommend that this finding be further explored elsewhere to determine its generalizability, in order to justify consideration of global policy change.

Completion of Baseline Trachoma Mapping in Malawi: Results of Eight Population-Based Prevalence Surveys Conducted with the Global Trachoma Mapping Project

Purpose: Following a first phase of trachoma mapping in Malawi with the Global Trachoma Mapping Project, we identified and mapped trachoma districts previously suspected to be non-endemic, although adjacent to districts with estimated trachoma prevalences indicating a public health problem.

Methods: We conducted population-based surveys in eight evaluation units (EUs) comprising eight districts in Malawi (total population 3,230,272). A 2-stage cluster random sampling design allowed us to select 30 households from each of 30 clusters per EU; all residents aged 1 year and older in selected households were examined for evidence of trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) and trachomatous trichiasis (TT).

Results: None of the eight EUs had a TF prevalence in 1–9-year-olds ≥10%, one district (Dedza) had a TF prevalence between 5.0% and 9.9%, and only one district (Karonga) had a trichiasis prevalence in adults ≥0.2%.

Conclusion: The prevalence of TF and TT in six of eight EUs surveyed was consistent with an original categorization of trachoma being unlikely to be a public health problem. In the absence of formal surveys, health management information system data and other locally available information about trachoma is likely to be useful in predicting areas where public health interventions against trachoma are required.

Baseline Trachoma Mapping in Malawi with the Global Trachoma Mapping Project (GTMP)

Purpose: To determine the prevalence of trachoma in all suspected endemic districts in Malawi.

Methods: A population-based survey conducted in 16 evaluation units from 12 suspected endemic districts in Malawi (population 6,390,517), using the standardized Global Trachoma Mapping Project (GTMP) protocol. A 2-stage cluster-random sampling design selected 30 households from each of 30 clusters per evaluation unit; all residents aged 1 year and older in selected households were examined for evidence of follicular trachoma (TF), intense trachomatous inflammation (TI), and trachomatous trichiasis (TT).

Results: Four of the 16 evaluation units were found to be endemic for trachoma, with a prevalence range of 10.0–13.5% for TF and 0.2–0.6% for TT. Nine evaluation units had a TF prevalence between 5.0% and 9.9% while three evaluation units had a TF prevalence <5.0%.

Conclusion: The prevalence rates of active trachoma in Malawi were not uniform among suspected endemic evaluation units, with rates higher than the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold for implementation of community-based control measures (TF ≥ 10.0%) in only 4 of the 16 evaluation units. Trachoma remains a disease of public health importance in some parts of Malawi and adjoining (unmapped) districts should be prioritized for mapping. According to the survey, an additional 3,169,362 people require intervention to reduce active disease and 1557 trichiasis surgeries are needed to reduce the prevalence of TT below WHO recommended thresholds.

Direct effect of increased hemodynamic load on cardiac mass

The hearts of rats were transplanted into the abdomens of recipients of the same inbred strain by attaching the stumps of aorta and pulmonary artery end to side to the abdominal aorta and inferior vena cava, respectively, of the recipient. The transplant functions as a denervated "nonworking" Langendorff heart; the recipient in situ heart serves as a normal control. One week after surgery, an onset of atrophy is observed in the transplanted heart, which stabilizes after 2 weeks; the in situ heart grows normally. Using this model, we increased the load of the left ventricle (LV) in the transplant by inserting a permanent polyethylene cannula into its aortic orifice during surgery to induce valvular incompetence and/or stenosis (TPE group). This resulted in significantly increased LV systolic pressure (115 +/- 5 versus 95 +/- 3 mm Hg) and a significantly increased rate-pressure product (34.7 +/- 1.7 versus 24.4 +/- 1.4 mm Hg.min-1 x 10(3) as compared with rats with control transplants (TC group). The LV mass in the TPE group decreased to only 85 +/- 4.8% of the mass of the corresponding in situ recipient heart as compared with 59 +/- 2.6% in the TC group (p less than 0.001). In three cases in the TPE group with highest overload, we observed about 20% larger LV mass in transplanted hearts as compared with the corresponding recipient in situ hearts. These results indicate that the increased load significantly attenuated the atrophy observed in LV of the isotransplants. This attenuation could be correlated with the increment of load as indicated by higher peak LV pressures and higher rate-pressure products.

Oxygen delivery and performance in the isolated, perfused rat heart: comparison of perfusion with aqueous and perfluorocarbon-containing media

Perfluoro-octylbromide-containing perfusate is capable of supporting the contractile activity of isolated hearts. Because of the high oxygen content of such perfusate, "normal" mechanical function is maintained by such hearts with substantially reduced coronary flow.