Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills

Although great progress has been made to advance the scientific understanding of oil spills, tools for integrated assessment modeling of the long-term impacts on ecosystems, socioeconomics and human health are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework that could be used to answer stakeholder questions about oil spill impacts and to identify knowledge gaps and future integration priorities. The framework was initially separated into four knowledge domains (ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health) whose interactions were explored by gathering stakeholder questions through public engagement, assimilating expert input about existing models, and consolidating information through a system dynamics approach. This synthesis resulted in a causal loop diagram from which the interconnectivity of the system could be visualized. Results of this analysis indicate that the system naturally separates into two tiers, ocean environment and biological ecosystems versus socioeconomics and human health. As a result, ocean environment and ecosystem models could be used to provide input to explore human health and socioeconomic variables in hypothetical scenarios. At decadal-plus time scales, the analysis emphasized that human domains influence the natural domains through changes in oil-spill related laws and regulations. Although data gaps were identified in all four model domains, the socioeconomics and human health domains are the least established. Considerable future work is needed to address research gaps and to create fully coupled quantitative integrative assessment models that can be used in strategic decision-making that will optimize recoveries from future large oil spills.

The choice of droplet size probability distribution function for oil spill modeling is not trivial

The droplet size distribution (DSD) formed by gas-saturated oil jets is one of the most important characteristics of the flow to understand and model the fate of uncontrolled deep-sea oil spills. The shape of the DSD, generally modeled as a theoretical lognormal, Rosin-Rammler or non-fundamental distribution function, defines the size and the mass volume range of the droplets. Yet, the fundamental DSD shape has received much less attention than the volume median size (d50) and range of the DSD during ten years of research following the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout. To better understand the importance of the distribution function of the droplet size we compare the oil rising time, surface oil mass, and sedimented and beached masses for different DSDs derived from the DWH literature in idealized and applied conditions, while keeping d50 constant. We highlight substantial differences, showing that the probability distribution function of the DSD for far-field modeling is, regardless of the d50, consequential for oil spill response.

Invisible oil beyond the Deepwater Horizon satellite footprint

Major oil spills are catastrophic events that immensely affect the environment and society, yet determining their spatial extent is a highly complex task. During the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, ~149,000 km² of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) was covered by oil slicks and vast areas of the Gulf were closed for fishing. Yet, the satellite footprint does not necessarily capture the entire oil spill extent. Here, we use in situ observations and oil spill transport modeling to examine the full extent of the DWH spill, focusing on toxic-to-biota (i.e., marine organisms) oil concentration ranges. We demonstrate that large areas of the GoM were exposed to invisible and toxic oil that extended beyond the boundaries of the satellite footprint and the fishery closures. With a global increase in petroleum production-related activities, a careful assessment of oil spills' full extent is necessary to maximize environmental and public safety.

Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model

We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover.

Ocean eddies and climate predictability

A suite of coupled climate model simulations and experiments are used to examine how resolved mesoscale ocean features affect aspects of climate variability, air-sea interactions, and predictability. In combination with control simulations, experiments with the interactive ensemble coupling strategy are used to further amplify the role of the oceanic mesoscale field and the associated air-sea feedbacks and predictability. The basic intent of the interactive ensemble coupling strategy is to reduce the atmospheric noise at the air-sea interface, allowing an assessment of how noise affects the variability, and in this case, it is also used to diagnose predictability from the perspective of signal-to-noise ratios. The climate variability is assessed from the perspective of sea surface temperature (SST) variance ratios, and it is shown that, unsurprisingly, mesoscale variability significantly increases SST variance. Perhaps surprising is the fact that the presence of mesoscale ocean features even further enhances the SST variance in the interactive ensemble simulation beyond what would be expected from simple linear arguments. Changes in the air-sea coupling between simulations are assessed using pointwise convective rainfall-SST and convective rainfall-SST tendency correlations and again emphasize how the oceanic mesoscale alters the local association between convective rainfall and SST. Understanding the possible relationships between the SST-forced signal and the weather noise is critically important in climate predictability. We use the interactive ensemble simulations to diagnose this relationship, and we find that the presence of mesoscale ocean features significantly enhances this link particularly in ocean eddy rich regions. Finally, we use signal-to-noise ratios to show that the ocean mesoscale activity increases model estimated predictability in terms of convective precipitation and atmospheric upper tropospheric circulation.