Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Network Representation of fMRI Data Using Visibility Graphs: The Impact of Motion and Test-Retest Reliability

Visibility graphs provide a novel approach for analysing time-series data. Graph theoretical analysis of visibility graphs can provide new features for data mining applications in fMRI. However, visibility graphs features have not been used widely in the field of neuroscience. This is likely due to a lack of understanding of their robustness in the presence of noise (e.g., motion) and their test-retest reliability. In this study, we investigated visibility graph properties of fMRI data in the human connectome project (N = 1010) and tested their sensitivity to motion and test-retest reliability. We also characterised the strength of connectivity obtained using degree synchrony of visibility graphs. We found that strong correlation (r > 0.5) between visibility graph properties, such as the number of communities and average degrees, and motion in the fMRI data. The test-retest reliability (Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)) of graph theoretical features was high for the average degrees (0.74, 95% CI = [0.73, 0.75]), and moderate for clustering coefficient (0.43, 95% CI = [0.41, 0.44]) and average path length (0.41, 95% CI = [0.38, 0.44]). Functional connectivity between brain regions was measured by correlating the visibility graph degrees. However, the strength of correlation was found to be moderate to low (r < 0.35). These findings suggest that even small movement in fMRI data can strongly influence robustness and reliability of visibility graph features, thus, requiring robust motion correction strategies prior to data analysis. Further studies are necessary for better understanding of the potential application of visibility graph features in fMRI.

Mapping Essential Tremor to a Common Brain Network Using Functional Connectivity Analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The cerebello-thalamo-cortical circuit plays a critical role in essential tremor (ET). However, abnormalities have been reported in multiple brain regions outside this circuit, leading to inconsistent characterization of ET pathophysiology. Here, we test whether these mixed findings in ET localize to a common functional network and whether this network has therapeutic relevance.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search to identify studies reporting structural or metabolic brain abnormalities in ET. We then used 'coordinate network mapping,' which leverages a normative connectome (n = 1,000) of resting-state fMRI data to identify regions commonly connected to findings across all studies. To assess whether these regions may be relevant for the treatment of ET, we compared our network with a therapeutic network derived from lesions that relieved ET. Finally, we investigated whether the functional connectivity of this ET symptom network is abnormal in an independent cohort of patients with ET as compared with healthy controls.

RESULTS

Structural and metabolic brain abnormalities in ET were located in heterogeneous regions throughout the brain. However, these coordinates were connected to a common functional brain network, including the cerebellum, thalamus, motor cortex, precuneus, inferior parietal lobe, and insula. The cerebellum was identified as the hub of this network because it was the only brain region that was both functionally connected to the findings of over 90% of studies and significantly different in connectivity compared with a control data set of other movement disorders. This network was strikingly similar to the therapeutic network derived from lesions improving ET, with key regions aligning in the thalamus and cerebellum. Furthermore, positive functional connectivity between the cerebellar network hub and the sensorimotor cortices was significantly reduced in patients with ET compared with healthy controls, and connectivity within this network was correlated with tremor severity and cognitive functioning.

DISCUSSION

These findings suggest that the cerebellum is the central hub of a network commonly connected to structural and metabolic abnormalities in ET. This network may have therapeutic utility in refining and informing new targets for neuromodulation of ET.

Service availability and readiness for hip fracture care in low- and middle-income countries in South and Southeast Asia

Aims

The aim of this study was to describe the current pathways of care for patients with a fracture of the hip in five low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) in South Asia (Nepal and Sri Lanka) and Southeast Asia (Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines).

Methods

The World Health Organization Service Availability and Readiness Assessment tool was used to collect data on the care of hip fractures in Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. Respondents were asked to provide details about the current pathway of care for patients with hip fracture, including pre-hospital transport, time to admission, time to surgery, and time to weightbearing, along with healthcare professionals involved at different stages of care, information on discharge, and patient follow-up.

Results

Responses were received from 98 representative hospitals across the five countries. Most hospitals were publicly funded. There was consistency in clinical pathways of care within country, but considerable variation between countries. Patients mostly travel to hospital via ambulance (both publicly- and privately-funded) or private transport, with only half arriving at hospital within 12 hours of their injury. Access to surgery was variable and time to surgery ranged between one day and more than five days. The majority of hospitals mobilized patients on the first or second day after surgery, but there was notable variation in postoperative weightbearing protocols. Senior medical input was variable and specialist orthogeriatric expertise was unavailable in most hospitals.

Conclusion

This study provides the first step in mapping care pathways for patients with hip fracture in LMIC in South Asia. The previous lack of data in these countries hampers efforts to identify quality standards (key performance indicators) that are relevant to each different healthcare system.

Facilitating cardiopulmonary resuscitation training in high-risk areas of England: A study protocol

Introduction

Bystanders' interventions improve chances of survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) before Emergency Medical Services arrive. Some areas in England are of concern. These high-risk areas have a higher incidence of cardiac arrest combined with lower-than-average bystander CPR rates and are characterised by higher proportions of minority ethnic group residents and deprivation.Collaborating with people from the Black African and Caribbean and South Asian minority communities in deprived areas of England, we aim to develop and evaluate the implementation of theoretically informed intervention(s) to address factors contributing to lower bystander intervention rates.

Methods

The study is a collaborative realist enquiry, informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework and associated Behaviour Change Wheel. It consists of 1) a realist evidence synthesis to produce initial program theories developed from primary workshop data and published evidence. It will include identifying factors contributing to the issue and potential interventions to address them; 2) theoretically informed intervention development, using the initial program theories and behaviour change theory and 3) a realist mixed methods implementation evaluation with embedded feasibility.Public involvement (PPI) as study team and public advisory group members is key to this study.We will conduct realist evidence synthesis, qualitative and statistical analyses appropriate to the various methods used.

Dissemination

We will develop a dissemination plan and materials targeted to members of the public in high-risk areas as well as academic outputs. We will hold an event for participating community groups and stakeholders to share findings and seek advice on next steps.

Study registration

ISRCTN90350842. Registration date 28.03.2023. The study was registered after its start date.

Structural-functional connectivity bandwidth predicts processing speed in mild traumatic brain Injury: A multiplex network analysis

An emerging body of work has revealed alterations in structural (SC) and functional (FC) brain connectivity following mild TBI (mTBI), with mixed findings. However, these studies seldom integrate complimentary neuroimaging modalities within a unified framework. Multilayer network analysis is an emerging technique to uncover how white matter organization enables functional communication. Using our novel graph metric (SC-FC Bandwidth), we quantified the information capacity of synchronous brain regions in 53 mild TBI patients (46 females; age mean = 40.2 years (y), σ = 16.7 (y), range: 18-79 (y). Diffusion MRI and resting state fMRI were administered at the acute and chronic post-injury intervals. Moreover, participants completed a cognitive task to measure processing speed (30 Seconds and Counting Task; 30-SACT). Processing speed was significantly increased at the chronic, relative to the acute post-injury intervals (p = <0.001). Nonlinear principal components of direct (t = -1.84, p = 0.06) and indirect SC-FC Bandwidth (t = 3.86, p = <0.001) predicted processing speed with a moderate effect size (R2 = 0.43, p < 0.001), while controlling for age. A subnetwork of interhemispheric edges with increased SC-FC Bandwidth was identified at the chronic, relative to the acute mTBI post-injury interval (pFDR = 0.05). Increased interhemispheric SC-FC Bandwidth of this network corresponded with improved processing speed at the chronic post-injury interval (partial r = 0.32, p = 0.02). Our findings revealed that mild TBI results in complex reorganization of brain connectivity optimized for maximum information flow, supporting improved cognitive performance as a compensatory mechanism. Moving forward, this measurement may complement clinical assessment as an objective marker of mTBI recovery.

Study of capsule endoscopy delivery at scale through enhanced artificial intelligence-enabled analysis (the CESCAIL study)

AIM

Lower gastrointestinal (GI) diagnostics have been facing relentless capacity constraints for many years, even before the COVID-19 era. Restrictions from the COVID pandemic have resulted in a significant backlog in lower GI diagnostics. Given recent developments in deep neural networks (DNNs) and the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in endoscopy, automating capsule video analysis is now within reach. Comparable to the efficiency and accuracy of AI applications in small bowel capsule endoscopy, AI in colon capsule analysis will also improve the efficiency of video reading and address the relentless demand on lower GI services. The aim of the CESCAIL study is to determine the feasibility, accuracy and productivity of AI-enabled analysis tools (AiSPEED) for polyp detection compared with the 'gold standard': a conventional care pathway with clinician analysis.

METHOD

This multi-centre, diagnostic accuracy study aims to recruit 674 participants retrospectively and prospectively from centres conducting colon capsule endoscopy (CCE) as part of their standard care pathway. After the study participants have undergone CCE, the colon capsule videos will be uploaded onto two different pathways: AI-enabled video analysis and the gold standard conventional clinician analysis pathway. The reports generated from both pathways will be compared for accuracy (sensitivity and specificity). The reading time can only be compared in the prospective cohort. In addition to validating the AI tool, this study will also provide observational data concerning its use to assess the pathway execution in real-world performance.

RESULTS

The study is currently recruiting participants at multiple centres within the United Kingdom and is at the stage of collecting data.

CONCLUSION

This standard diagnostic accuracy study carries no additional risk to patients as it does not affect the standard care pathway, and hence patient care remains unaffected.

A cross-sectional investigation of cognition and epileptiform discharges in juvenile absence epilepsy

OBJECTIVES

Despite the prevalence of cognitive symptoms in the idiopathic generalized epilepsies (IGEs), cognitive dysfunction in juvenile absence epilepsy (JAE), a common yet understudied IGE subtype, remains poorly understood. This descriptive study provides a novel, comprehensive characterization of cognitive functioning in a JAE sample and examines the relationship between cognition and 24-h epileptiform discharge load.

METHOD

Forty-four individuals diagnosed with JAE underwent cognitive assessment using Woodcock Johnson III Test of Cognitive Abilities with concurrent 24-h ambulatory EEG monitoring. Generalized epileptiform discharges of any length, and prolonged generalized discharges ≥3 s were quantified across wakefulness and sleep. The relationship between standardized cognitive scores and epileptiform discharges was assessed through regression models.

RESULTS

Cognitive performances in overall intellectual ability, acquired comprehension-knowledge, processing speed, long-term memory storage and retrieval, and executive processes were 0.63-1.07 standard deviation (SD) units lower in the JAE group compared to the population reference mean, adjusted for educational attainment. Prolonged discharges (≥3 s) were recorded in 20 patients (47.6%) from 42 available electroencephalography (EEG) studies and were largely unreported. Duration and number of prolonged discharges were associated with reduced processing speed and long-term memory storage and retrieval.

SIGNIFICANCE

Cognitive dysfunction is seen in patients with JAE across various cognitive abilities, including those representing more stable processes like general intellect. During 24-h EEG, prolonged epileptiform discharges are common yet underreported in JAE despite treatment, and they show moderate effects on cognitive abilities. If epileptiform burden is a modifiable predictor of cognitive dysfunction, therapeutic interventions should consider quantitative 24-h EEG with routine neuropsychological screening. The growing recognition of the spectrum of neuropsychological comorbidities of IGE highlights the value of multidisciplinary approaches to explore the causes and consequences of cognitive deficits in epilepsy.

Prospective, randomised, parallel-group, open-label study to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of IMU-838, in combination with oseltamivir, in adults with COVID-19: the trial protocol

BACKGROUND

Globally, there is a scarcity of effective treatments for SARS-CoV-2 infections (causing COVID-19). Repurposing existing medications may offer the best hope for treating patients with COVID-19 to curb the pandemic. IMU-838 is a dihydroorotate dehydrogenase inhibitor, which is an effective mechanism for antiviral effects against respiratory viruses. When used synergistically with oseltamivir, therapeutic effects have been observed against influenza and SARS-CoV-2 in rodents. The IMU-838 and Oseltamivir in the Treatment of COVID-19 (IONIC) trial is a randomised controlled trial that will investigate whether time to clinical improvement in patients with COVID-19 is improved following a 14-day course of IMU-838+oseltamivir versus oseltamivir alone.

METHODS

IONIC trial is an open-label study in which participants will be randomised 1:1 in two parallel arms: the intervention arm (IMU-838+oseltamivir) and the control arm (oseltamivir only). The primary outcome is time to clinical improvement; defined as the time from randomisation to a two-point improvement on WHO ordinal scale; discharge from hospital, or death (whichever occurs first). The study is sponsored by the University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust and funded by LifeArc.

DISCUSSION

The IONIC protocol describes an overarching trial design to provide reliable evidence on the effectiveness of IMU-838 (vidofludimus calcium) when delivered in combination with an antiviral therapy (oseltamivir) (IONIC intervention) for confirmed or suspected COVID-19 infection in adult patients receiving usual standard of care.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been independently reviewed and approved by Wales Research Ethics Committee. In addition, required regulatory approvals were received from Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

EudraCT 2020-001805-21, ISRCTN53038326, NCT04516915.

The meniscal tear outcome (METRO) review: A systematic review summarising the clinical course and outcomes of patients with a meniscal tear

BACKGROUND

Meniscal tears affect 222 per 100,000 of the population and can be managed non-operatively or operatively with an arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM), meniscal repair or meniscal transplantation. The purpose of this review is to summarise the outcomes following treatment with a meniscal tear and explore correlations between outcomes.

METHOD

A systematic review was performed of MEDLINE, EMBASE, AMED and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to identify prospective studies describing the outcomes of patients with a meniscal tear. Comparisons were made of outcomes between APM and non-operative groups. Outcomes were graphically presented over time for all treatment interventions. Pearson's correlations were calculated between outcome timepoints.

RESULTS

35 studies were included, 28 reported outcomes following APM; four following meniscal repair and three following meniscal transplant. Graphical plots demonstrated a sustained improvement for all treatment interventions. A moderate to very strong correlation was reported between baseline and three-month outcomes. In the medium term, there was small significant difference in outcome between APM and non-operative measures (SMD 0.17; 95 % CI 0.04, 0.29), however, this was not clinically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with a meniscal tear demonstrated a sustained initial improvement in function scores, which was true of all treatments examined. APM may have little benefit in older people, however, previous trials did not include patients who meet the current indications for surgery as a result the findings should not be generalised to all patients with a meniscal tear. Further trials are required in patients who meet current operative indications.

Structural-Functional Connectivity Bandwidth of the Human Brain

BACKGROUND

The human brain is a complex network that seamlessly manifests behaviour and cognition. This network comprises neurons that directly, or indirectly mediate communication between brain regions. Here, we show how multilayer/multiplex network analysis provides a suitable framework to uncover the throughput of structural connectivity (SC) to mediate information transfer-giving rise to functional connectivity (FC).

METHOD

We implemented a novel method to reconcile SC and FC using diffusion and resting-state functional MRI connectivity data from 484 subjects (272 females, 212 males; age = 29.15 ± 3.47) from the Human Connectome Project. First, we counted the number of direct and indirect structural paths that mediate FC. FC nodes with indirect SC paths were then weighted according to their least restrictive SC path. We refer to this as SC-FC Bandwidth. We then mapped paths with the highest SC-FC Bandwidth across 7 canonical resting-state networks.

FINDINGS

We found that most pairs of FC nodes were connected by SC paths of length two and three (SC paths of length >5 were virtually non-existent). Direct SC-FC connections accounted for only 10% of all SC-FC connections. The majority of FC nodes without a direct SC path were mediated by a proportion of two (44%) or three SC path lengths (39%). Only a small proportion of FC nodes were mediated by SC path lengths of four (5%). We found high-bandwidth direct SC-FC connections show dense intra- and sparse inter-network connectivity, with a bilateral, anteroposterior distribution. High bandwidth SC-FC triangles have a right superomedial distribution within the somatomotor network. High-bandwidth SC-FC quads have a superoposterior distribution within the default mode network.

CONCLUSION

Our method allows the measurement of indirect SC-FC using undirected, weighted graphs derived from multimodal MRI data in order to map the location and throughput of SC to mediate FC. An extension of this work may be to explore how SC-FC Bandwidth changes over time, relates to cognition/behavior, and if this measure reflects a marker of neurological injury or psychiatric disorders.

A systematic review of resting-state functional connectivity in obesity: Refining current neurobiological frameworks and methodological considerations moving forward

Obesity is the second most common cause of preventable morbidity worldwide. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has been used extensively to characterise altered communication between brain regions in individuals with obesity, though findings from this research have not yet been systematically evaluated within the context of prominent neurobiological frameworks. This systematic review aggregated resting-state fMRI findings in individuals with obesity and evaluated the contribution of these findings to current neurobiological models. Findings were considered in relation to a triadic model of problematic eating, outlining disrupted communication between reward, inhibitory, and homeostatic systems. We identified a pattern of consistently increased orbitofrontal and decreased insula cortex resting-state functional connectivity in individuals with obesity in comparison to healthy weight controls. BOLD signal amplitude was also increased in people with obesity across studies, predominantly confined to subcortical regions, including the hippocampus, amygdala, and putamen. We posit that altered orbitofrontal cortex connectivity may be indicative of a shift in the valuation of food-based rewards and that dysfunctional insula connectivity likely contributes to altered homeostatic signal processing. Homeostatic violation signals in obesity may be maintained despite satiety, thereby 'hijacking' the executive system and promoting further food intake. Moving forward, we provide a roadmap for more reliable resting-state and task-based functional connectivity experiments, which must be reconciled within a common framework if we are to uncover the interplay between psychological and biological factors within current theoretical frameworks.

Cost-utility analysis of cemented hemiarthroplasty versus hydroxyapatite-coated uncemented hemiarthroplasty for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures : the World Hip Trauma Evaluation 5 (WHiTE 5) trial

AIMS

The aim of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of cemented hemiarthroplasty (HA) versus hydroxyapatite-coated uncemented HA for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures in older adults.

METHODS

A within-trial economic evaluation was conducted based on data collected from the World Hip Trauma Evaluation 5 (WHiTE 5) multicentre randomized controlled trial in the UK. Resource use was measured over 12 months post-randomization using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Cost-effectiveness was reported in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from the NHS and personal social service perspective. Methodological uncertainty was addressed using sensitivity analysis, while decision uncertainty was represented graphically using confidence ellipses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves.

RESULTS

The base-case analysis showed that cemented implants were cost-saving (mean cost difference -£961 (95% confidence interval (CI) -£2,292 to £370)) and increased QALYs (mean QALY difference 0.010 (95% CI 0.002 to 0.017)) when compared to uncemented implants. The probability of the cemented implant being cost-effective approximated between 95% and 97% at alternative cost-effectiveness thresholds held by decision-makers, and its net monetary benefit was positive. The findings remained robust against all the pre-planned sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that cemented HA is cost-effective compared with hydroxyapatite-coated uncemented HA in older adults with displaced intracapsular hip fractures. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2022;104-B(8):922-928.

Use of video self-modelling to teach combined vocational and social skills to an adult with autism spectrum disorder

BACKGROUND: Autistic adults have difficulty in learning vocational and social skills, which often translates into low employment rates. Video self-modelling (VSM) is an effective educational technique for high-support-needs autistic adults, with the ability to teach challenging vocational skills as well as basic social skills. OBJECTIVE: The present study examined the use of video self-modelling to teach vocational and social skills to a 22-year-old autistic adult. Target behaviours categories included (1) reading order forms, (2) transporting goods, and (3) engaging with customers. METHODS: A multiple baseline design was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the videos in teaching these target behaviours. The dependent variables were the percentage of tasks completed correctly, and quantitative prompt dependency, using a least-to-most prompting strategy. RESULTS: Results showed that VSM modestly improved reading order forms and transporting goods, and moderately improved engagement with customers. CONCLUSION: This intervention resulted in the successful employment of an autistic adult in a job that he desired, whilst teaching him skills he specifically struggled with. As such, VSM should be considered for others wanting to learn combined social and vocational skills.

Randomised controlled trial comparing intraoperative cell salvage and autotransfusion with standard care in the treatment of hip fractures: a protocol for the WHITE 9 study

INTRODUCTION

People who sustain a hip fracture are typically elderly, frail and require urgent surgery. Hip fracture and the urgent surgery is associated with acute blood loss, compounding patients' pre-existing comorbidities including anaemia. Approximately 30% of patients require a donor blood transfusion in the perioperative period. Donor blood transfusions are associated with increased rates of infections, allergic reactions and longer lengths of stay. Furthermore, there is a substantial cost associated with the use of donor blood. Cell salvage and autotransfusion is a technique that recovers, washes and transfuses blood lost during surgery back to the patient. The objective of this study is to determine the clinical and cost effectiveness of intraoperative cell salvage, compared with standard care, in improving health related quality-of-life of patients undergoing hip fracture surgery.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Multicentre, parallel group, two-arm, randomised controlled trial. Patients aged 60 years and older with a hip fracture treated with surgery are eligible. Participants will be randomly allocated on a 1:1 basis to either undergo cell salvage and autotransfusion or they will follow the standard care pathway. Otherwise, all care will be in accordance with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance. A minimum of 1128 patients will be recruited to obtain 90% power to detect a 0.075-point difference in the primary endpoint: EuroQol-5D-5L HRQoL at 4 months post injury. Secondary outcomes will include complications, postoperative delirium, residential status, mobility, allogenic blood use, mortality and resource use.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

NHS ethical approval was provided on 14 August 2019 (19/WA/0197) and the trial registered (ISRCTN15945622). After the conclusion of this trial, a manuscript will be prepared for peer-review publication. Results will be disseminated in lay form to participants and the public.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN15945622.

Cost-utility analysis of cast compared to removable brace in the management of adult patients with ankle fractures

Aims

To compare the cost-utility of removable brace compared with cast in the management of adult patients with ankle fracture.

Methods

A within-trial economic evaluation conducted from the UK NHS and personnel social services (PSS) perspective. Health resources and quality-of-life data were collected as part of the Ankle Injury Rehabilitation (AIR) multicentre, randomized controlled trial over a 12-month period using trial case report forms and patient-completed questionnaires. Cost-utility analysis was estimated in terms of the incremental cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Estimate uncertainty was explored by bootstrapping, visualized on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio plane. Net monetary benefit and probability of cost-effectiveness were evaluated at a range of willingness-to-pay thresholds and visualized graphically.

Results

The incremental cost and QALYs of using brace over a 12-month period were £46.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) £-9 to £147) and 0.0141 (95% CI -0.005 to 0.033), respectively. The cost per QALY gained was £3,318. The probability of brace being cost-effective at a £30,000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold was 88%. The results remained robust to a range of sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion

This within-trial economic evaluation found that it is probable that using a removable brace provides good value to the NHS when compared to cast, in the management of adults with ankle fracture.

Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(6):455–462.

Subacromial balloon spacer for irreparable rotator cuff tears of the shoulder (START:REACTS): a group-sequential, double-blind, multicentre randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

New surgical procedures can expose patients to harm and should be carefully evaluated before widespread use. The InSpace balloon (Stryker, USA) is an innovative surgical device used to treat people with rotator cuff tears that cannot be repaired. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of the InSpace balloon for people with irreparable rotator cuff tears.

METHODS

We conducted a double-blind, group-sequential, adaptive randomised controlled trial in 24 hospitals in the UK, comparing arthroscopic debridement of the subacromial space with biceps tenotomy (debridement only group) with the same procedure but including insertion of the InSpace balloon (debridement with device group). Participants had an irreparable rotator cuff tear, which had not resolved with conservative treatment, and they had symptoms warranting surgery. Eligibility was confirmed intraoperatively before randomly assigning (1:1) participants to a treatment group using a remote computer system. Participants and assessors were masked to group assignment. Masking was achieved by using identical incisions for both procedures, blinding the operation note, and a consistent rehabilitation programme was offered regardless of group allocation. The primary outcome was the Oxford Shoulder Score at 12 months. Pre-trial simulations using data from early and late timepoints informed stopping boundaries for two interim analyses. The primary analysis was on a modified intention-to-treat basis, adjusted for the planned interim analysis. The trial was registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN17825590.

FINDINGS

Between June 1, 2018, and July 30, 2020, we assessed 385 people for eligibility, of which 317 were eligible. 249 (79%) people consented for inclusion in the study. 117 participants were randomly allocated to a treatment group, 61 participants to the debridement only group and 56 to the debridement with device group. A predefined stopping boundary was met at the first interim analysis and recruitment stopped with 117 participants randomised. 43% of participants were female, 57% were male. We obtained primary outcome data for 114 (97%) participants. The mean Oxford Shoulder Score at 12 months was 34·3 (SD 11·1) in the debridement only group and 30·3 (10·9) in the debridement with device group (mean difference adjusted for adaptive design -4·2 [95% CI -8·2 to -0·26];p=0·037) favouring control. There was no difference in adverse events between the two groups.

INTERPRETATION

In an efficient, adaptive trial design, our results favoured the debridement only group. We do not recommend the InSpace balloon for the treatment of irreparable rotator cuff tears.

FUNDING

Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation Programme, a Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health and Care Research partnership.

Moulded cast compared with K-wire fixation after manipulation of an acute dorsally displaced distal radius fracture: the DRAFFT 2 RCT

BACKGROUND

Patients with a displaced fracture of the distal radius are frequently offered surgical fixation. Manipulation of the fracture and moulded plaster casting is an alternative treatment that avoids metal implants, but evidence of its effectiveness is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To compare functional outcomes, quality-of-life outcomes, complications and resource use among patients with a dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius treated with manipulation and surgical fixation with Kirschner wires (K-wires) and those treated with manipulation and moulded cast.

DESIGN

Pragmatic, superiority, multicentre, randomised controlled trial with a health economic evaluation.

SETTING

A total of 36 orthopaedic trauma centres in the UK NHS.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients (aged ≥ 16 years) treated for an acute dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius were potentially eligible. Patients were excluded if their injury had occurred > 2 weeks previously, if the fracture was open, if it extended > 3 cm from the radiocarpal joint or if it required open reduction, or if the participant was unable to complete questionnaires.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomly assigned in theatre (1 : 1) to receive a moulded cast (i.e. the cast group) or surgical fixation with K-wires (i.e. the K-wire group) after fracture manipulation.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was the Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation score at 12 months, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. Health-related quality of life was recorded using the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version, and resource use was recorded from a health and personal social care perspective.

RESULTS

Between January 2017 and March 2019, 500 participants (mean age 60 years, 83% women) were randomly allocated to receive a moulded cast (n = 255) or surgical fixation with K-wire (n = 245) following a manipulation of their fracture. A total of 395 (80%) participants were included in the primary analysis at 12 months. There was no difference in the Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation score at 1 year post randomisation [cast group: n = 200, mean score 21.2 (standard deviation 23.1); K-wire group: n = 195, mean score 20.7 (standard deviation 22.3); adjusted mean difference -0.34 (95% confidence interval -4.33 to 3.66); p = 0.87]. A total of 33 (13%) participants in the cast group required surgical fixation for loss of fracture position in the first 6 weeks, compared with one participant in the K-wire group (odds ratio 0.02, 95% confidence interval 0.001 to 0.10). The base-case cost-effectiveness analysis showed that manipulation and surgical fixation with K-wires had a higher mean cost than manipulation and a moulded cast, despite similar mean effectiveness. The use of K-wires is unlikely to be cost-effective, and sensitivity analyses found this result to be robust.

LIMITATIONS

Because the interventions were identifiable, neither patients nor clinicians could be blind to their treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical fixation with K-wires was not found to be superior to moulded casting following manipulation of a dorsally displaced fracture of the distal radius, as measured by Patient-Rated Wrist Evaluation score. However, one in eight participants treated in a moulded cast required surgery for loss of fracture reduction in the first 6 weeks. After a successful closed reduction, clinicians may consider a moulded cast as a safe and cost-effective alternative to surgical fixation with K-wires.

FUTURE WORK

Further research should focus on optimal techniques for immobilisation and manipulation of this type of fracture, including optimal analgesia, and for rehabilitation of the patient after immobilisation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered as ISRCTN11980540 and UKCRN Portfolio 208830.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Cemented or Uncemented Hemiarthroplasty for Intracapsular Hip Fracture

BACKGROUND

Controversy exists over the use of bone cement in hip fractures treated with hemiarthroplasty. Only limited data on quality of life after cemented as compared with modern uncemented hemiarthroplasties are available.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter, randomized, controlled trial comparing cemented with uncemented hemiarthroplasty in patients 60 years of age or older with an intracapsular hip fracture. The primary outcome was health-related quality of life measured with the use of utility scores on the EuroQol Group 5-Dimension (EQ-5D) questionnaire at 4 months after randomization (range of scores, -0.594 to 1, with higher scores indicating better quality of life; range for minimal clinically important difference, 0.050 to 0.075).

RESULTS

A total of 610 patients were assigned to undergo cemented hemiarthroplasty and 615 to undergo modern uncemented hemiarthroplasty; follow-up data were available for 71.6% of the patients at 4 months. The mean EQ-5D utility score was 0.371 in patients assigned to the cemented group and 0.315 in those assigned to the uncemented group (adjusted difference, 0.055; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.009 to 0.101; P = 0.02). The between-group difference at 1 month was similar to that at 4 months, but the difference at 12 months was smaller than that at 4 months. Mortality at 12 months was 23.9% in the cemented group and 27.8% in the uncemented group (odds ratio for death, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.62 to 1.05). Periprosthetic fractures occurred in 0.5% and 2.1% of the patients in the respective groups (odds ratio [uncemented vs. cemented], 4.37; 95% CI, 1.19 to 24.00). The incidences of other complications were similar in the two groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients 60 years of age or older with an intracapsular hip fracture, cemented hemiarthroplasty resulted in a modestly but significantly better quality of life and a lower risk of periprosthetic fracture than uncemented hemiarthroplasty. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research; WHiTE 5 ISRCTN number, ISRCTN18393176.).

Functional connectivity during feedback learning in smokers

BACKGROUND

Although it has been traditionally assumed that dysregulation of psychological processes in smokers results from activity within specific brain regions, an emerging view regards such dysregulation as attributable to aberrant communication between distinct brain regions. These processes can be measured during appropriate task paradigms such as the learning from errors task. This study aims to elucidate interactions between brain regions underlying the process of learning from errors, punishment and sensitivity to reward in dependent smokers.

METHODS

Functional MRI data from 23 age-matched dependent smokers (8 females, mean age = 25.48, SD = 4.46) and 23 controls (13 females, mean age = 24.83, SD = 5.99) were analysed during a feedback-based associative learning task. Functional connectivity between the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, nucleus accumbens and reward/sensorimotor areas was investigated during a feedback learning task.

RESULTS

Behaviourally, smokers exhibited lower error correction rates and were less sensitive to punishment magnitude. Smokers showed increased functional connectivity between dorsal anterior cingulate cortex/nucleus accumbens seed regions and numerous reward-related target regions including the putamen, anterior cingulate and orbitofrontal cortex.

CONCLUSIONS

Reduced learning from errors and widespread aberrant functional connectivity contribute to the emerging functional characterisation of dependent smokers and may bear significant implications when considering the efficacy of smoking interventions.

Vocational rehabilitation via social firms: a qualitative investigation of the views and experiences of employees with mental health problems, social firm managers and clinicians

BACKGROUND

Employment within social firms in the UK is under-developed and under-researched, but a potentially beneficial route to vocational rehabilitation for people with mental health problems. This study explores the views and experiences of employees with mental ill-health, managers of social firms and mental health clinicians, in order to understand the potential value of social firms for the vocational rehabilitation, employment and well-being of people with mental health problems.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 23 employees with mental health problems in 11 social firms in England. A focus group and individual interviews were conducted with 12 managers of social firms. Two focus groups were held with 16 mental health clinicians. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Most employees expressed very positive views about working in a social firm. In responses from both employees and social firm managers, an overarching theme regarding the supportive ethos of social firms encompassed several related features: openness about mental health issues; peer, team and management support; flexibility; and support to progress and develop skills over time. Managers identified benefits of employing people with mental health problems who were sufficiently recovered. Knowledge of social firms within clinician focus groups was very limited, although clinicians thought they could be a welcome additional vocational resource.

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of job satisfaction among social firm employees may be explained by the supportive ethos of these working environments. Social firms have potential to be a helpful addition to the range of vocational pathways available for people with mental ill-health. Further mixed methods investigations of experiences and outcomes in order to understand who engages with and benefits from this form of vocational rehabilitation would be valuable in informing decisions about scaling up the model.

RoWDI: rolling window detection of sleep intrusions in the awake brain using fMRI

Objective.Brief episodes of sleep can intrude into the awake human brain due to lack of sleep or fatigue-compromising the safety of critical daily tasks (i.e. driving). These intrusions can also introduce artefactual activity within functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiments, prompting the need for an objective and effective method of removing them.Approach.We have developed a method to track sleep-like events in awake humans via rolling window detection of intrusions (RoWDI) of fMRI signal template. These events can then be used in voxel-wise event-related analysis of fMRI data. To test this approach, we generated a template of fMRI activity associated with transition to sleep via simultaneous fMRI and electroencephalogram (EEG) (N= 10). RoWDI was then used to identify sleep-like events in 20 individuals performing a cognitive task during fMRI after a night of partial sleep deprivation. This approach was further validated in an independent fMRI dataset (N= 56).Main results.Our method (RoWDI) was able to infer frequent sleep-like events during the cognitive task performed after sleep deprivation. The sleep-like events were associated with on average of 20% reduction in pupil size and prolonged response time. The blood-oxygen-level-dependent activity during the sleep-like events covered thalami-cortical regions, which although spatially distinct, co-existed with, task-related activity. These key findings were validated in the independent dataset.Significance.RoWDI can reliably detect spontaneous sleep-like events in the human brain. Thus, it may also be used as a tool to delineate and account for neural activity associated with wake-sleep transitions in both resting-state and task-related fMRI studies.

Short-term and Long-term Rates of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Systematic Review

Importance

Short-term and long-term persistent postacute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) have not been systematically evaluated. The incidence and evolution of PASC are dependent on time from infection, organ systems and tissue affected, vaccination status, variant of the virus, and geographic region.

Objective

To estimate organ system-specific frequency and evolution of PASC.

Evidence Review

PubMed (MEDLINE), Scopus, the World Health Organization Global Literature on Coronavirus Disease, and CoronaCentral databases were searched from December 2019 through March 2021. A total of 2100 studies were identified from databases and through cited references. Studies providing data on PASC in children and adults were included. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for abstracting data were followed and performed independently by 2 reviewers. Quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for cohort studies. The main outcome was frequency of PASC diagnosed by (1) laboratory investigation, (2) radiologic pathology, and (3) clinical signs and symptoms. PASC were classified by organ system, ie, neurologic; cardiovascular; respiratory; digestive; dermatologic; and ear, nose, and throat as well as mental health, constitutional symptoms, and functional mobility.

Findings

From a total of 2100 studies identified, 57 studies with 250 351 survivors of COVID-19 met inclusion criteria. The mean (SD) age of survivors was 54.4 (8.9) years, 140 196 (56%) were male, and 197 777 (79%) were hospitalized during acute COVID-19. High-income countries contributed 45 studies (79%). The median (IQR) proportion of COVID-19 survivors experiencing at least 1 PASC was 54.0% (45.0%-69.0%; 13 studies) at 1 month (short-term), 55.0% (34.8%-65.5%; 38 studies) at 2 to 5 months (intermediate-term), and 54.0% (31.0%-67.0%; 9 studies) at 6 or more months (long-term). Most prevalent pulmonary sequelae, neurologic disorders, mental health disorders, functional mobility impairments, and general and constitutional symptoms were chest imaging abnormality (median [IQR], 62.2% [45.8%-76.5%]), difficulty concentrating (median [IQR], 23.8% [20.4%-25.9%]), generalized anxiety disorder (median [IQR], 29.6% [14.0%-44.0%]), general functional impairments (median [IQR], 44.0% [23.4%-62.6%]), and fatigue or muscle weakness (median [IQR], 37.5% [25.4%-54.5%]), respectively. Other frequently reported symptoms included cardiac, dermatologic, digestive, and ear, nose, and throat disorders.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic review, more than half of COVID-19 survivors experienced PASC 6 months after recovery. The most common PASC involved functional mobility impairments, pulmonary abnormalities, and mental health disorders. These long-term PASC effects occur on a scale that could overwhelm existing health care capacity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

Effect of Platelet-Rich Plasma Injection vs Sham Injection on Tendon Dysfunction in Patients With Chronic Midportion Achilles Tendinopathy: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Platelet-rich plasma injections are used as a treatment for chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy, but evidence for this treatment is limited.

OBJECTIVE

In adults with midportion Achilles tendinopathy, to assess the effects of a single platelet-rich plasma injection, compared with sham injection, on the outcome of the Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Achilles (VISA-A) score (a single composite measure of Achilles tendinopathy severity).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A participant-blinded, multicenter randomized clinical trial that included 240 people from 24 sites assigned to either a platelet-rich plasma injection or a sham injection between April 2016 and February 2020. Final follow-up was July 2020. Participants were older than 18 years with midportion Achilles tendon pain for more than 3 months as confirmed by ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging, or both.

INTERVENTIONS

A single intratendinous platelet-rich plasma injection (n = 121) or a single sham injection (insertion of a subcutaneous dry needle not entering the tendon) (n = 119).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was the VISA-A score, measured 6 months after treatment allocation. The VISA-A score contains 8 questions that cover 3 domains of pain, function, and activity, analyzed as a composite score (range, 0 [worst symptoms] to 100 [no symptoms]; minimal clinically important difference in score, 12 points). The primary analysis was adjusted for laterality, age, sex, and baseline VISA-A score.

RESULTS

Among 240 patients assigned to a platelet-rich plasma or sham injection (mean age, 52 years; 138 [58%] women), 221 (92%) completed the trial. At 6-month follow-up, mean VISA-A score values in the plasma-rich plasma group vs the sham injection group were 54.4 vs 53.4 (adjusted mean difference, -2.7 [95% CI, -8.8 to 3.3]). The most common adverse events compared between patients in the platelet-rich plasma group vs the sham group were injection site discomfort (97 vs 73 patients), swelling (56 vs 52 patients) and bruising (48 vs 49 patients).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients with chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy, treatment with a single injection of intratendinous platelet-rich plasma, compared with insertion of a subcutaneous dry needle, did not reduce Achilles tendon dysfunction at 6 months. These findings do not support the use of this treatment for chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN13254422.

Modelling the Anatomic Distribution of Neurologic Events in Patients with COVID-19: A Systematic Review of MRI Findings

BACKGROUND

Neurologic events have been reported in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, a model-based evaluation of the spatial distribution of these events is lacking.

PURPOSE

Our aim was to quantitatively evaluate whether a network diffusion model can explain the spread of small neurologic events.

DATA SOURCES

The MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, and LitCovid data bases were searched from January 1, 2020, to July 19, 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Thirty-five case series and case studies reported 317 small neurologic events in 123 unique patients with COVID-19.

DATA ANALYSIS

Neurologic events were localized to gray or white matter regions of the Illinois Institute of Technology (gray-matter and white matter) Human Brain Atlas using radiologic images and descriptions. The total proportion of events was calculated for each region. A network diffusion model was implemented, and any brain regions showing a significant association (P < .05, family-wise error-corrected) between predicted and measured events were considered epicenters.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Within gray matter, neurologic events were widely distributed, with the largest number of events (∼10%) observed in the bilateral superior temporal, precentral, and lateral occipital cortices, respectively. Network diffusion modeling showed a significant association between predicted and measured gray matter events when the spread of pathology was seeded from the bilateral cerebellum (r = 0.51, P < .001, corrected) and putamen (r = 0.4, P = .02, corrected). In white matter, most events (∼26%) were observed within the bilateral corticospinal tracts.

LIMITATIONS

The risk of bias was not considered because all studies were either case series or case studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Transconnectome diffusion of pathology via the structural network of the brain may contribute to the spread of neurologic events in patients with COVID-19.

The incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in UK primary care: a retrospective cohort study of the IQVIA Medical Research Database

BACKGROUND

Our knowledge of the incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is uncertain. Recent studies reported an increase in prevalence. However, they excluded a high proportion of ambiguous cases from general practice. Estimates are needed to inform health care providers who plan the provision of services for IBD patients. We aimed to estimate the IBD incidence and prevalence in UK general practice.

METHODS

We undertook a retrospective cohort study of routine electronic health records from the IQVIA Medical Research Database covering 14 million patients. Adult patients from 2006 to 2016 were included. IBD was defined as an IBD related Read code or record of IBD specific medication. Annual incidence and 12-month period prevalence were calculated.

RESULTS

The prevalence of IBD increased between 2006 and 2016 from 106.2 (95% CI 105.2-107.3) to 142.1 (95% CI 140.7-143.5) IBD cases per 10,000 patients which is a 33.8% increase. Incidence varied across the years. The incidence across the full study period was 69.5 (95% CI 68.6-70.4) per 100,000 person years.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large study we found higher estimates of IBD incidence and prevalence than previously reported. Estimates are highly dependent on definitions of disease and previously may have been underestimated.

Meniscal tears are more common than previously identified, however, less than a quarter of people with a tear undergo arthroscopy

PURPOSE

The management of meniscal tears is a widely researched and evolving field. Previous studies reporting the incidence of meniscal tears are outdated and not representative of current practice. The aim of this study was to report the current incidence of MRI confirmed meniscal tears in patients with a symptomatic knee and the current intervention rate in a large NHS trust.

METHODS

Radiology reports from 13,358 consecutive magnetic resonance imaging scans between 2015 and 2017, performed at a large UK hospital serving a population of 470,000, were assessed to identify patients with meniscal tears. The hospital database was interrogated to explore the subsequent treatment undertaken by the patient. A linear regression model was used to identify if any factors predicted subsequent arthroscopy.

RESULTS

1737 patients with isolated meniscal tears were identified in patients undergoing an MRI for knee pain, suggesting a rate of 222 MRI confirmed tears per 100,000 of the population aged 18 to 55 years old. 47% attended outpatient appointments and 22% underwent arthroscopy. Root tears [odds ratio (95% CI) 2.24 (1.0, 4.49); p = 0.049] and bucket handle tears were significantly associated with subsequent surgery, with no difference between the other types of tears. The presence of chondral changes did not significantly affect the rate of surgery [0.81 (0.60, 1.08); n.s].

CONCLUSION

Meniscal tears were found to be more common than previously described. However, less than half present to secondary care and only 22% undergo arthroscopy. These findings should inform future study design and recruitment strategies. In agreement with previous literature, bucket handle tears and root tears were significant predictors of subsequent surgery.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

Economic evaluation plan of a RCT of hydroxyapatite-coated uncemented hemiarthroplasty versus cemented hemiarthroplasty for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures: the WHiTE5 trial

Aim

This paper describes the methods applied to assess the cost-effectiveness of cemented versus uncemented hemiarthroplasty among hip fracture patients in the World Hip Trauma Evaluation Five (WHiTE5) trial.

Methods

A within-trial cost-utility analysis (CUA) will be conducted at four months postinjury from a health system (National Health Service and personal social services) perspective. Resource use pertaining to healthcare utilization (i.e. inpatient care, physiotherapy, social care, and home adaptations), and utility measures (quality-adjusted life years) will be collected at one and four months (primary outcome endpoint) postinjury; only treatment of complications will be captured at 12 months. Sensitivity analysis will be conducted to assess the robustness of the results.

Conclusion

The planned analysis strategy described here records our intent to conduct a within-trial CUA alongside the WHiTE5 trial.

Acute Rehabilitation following Traumatic anterior shoulder dISlocAtioN (ARTISAN): protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

First-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (TASD) is predominantly managed non-operatively. People sustaining TASD have ongoing pain, disability and future risk of redislocation. There are no published randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing different non-operative rehabilitation strategies to ascertain the optimum clinically effective approach after TASD.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

In this multicentre adaptive RCT, with internal pilot, adults with a radiologically confirmed first time TASD treated non-surgically will be screened at a minimum of 30 sites. People with neurovascular complications, bilateral dislocations or are unable to attend physiotherapy will be excluded.Randomisation will be on a 1:1 treatment allocation, stratified by age, hand dominance and site. Participants will receive a single session of advice; or a single session of advice plus offer of further physiotherapy (maximum 4 months). The primary analysis will be the difference in Oxford Shoulder Instability Score at 6 months. A sample size of a minimum of 478 participants will allow us to show a four point difference with 90% power.An embedded qualitative study will explore the participants' experiences of the trial interventions.

ETHICS, REGISTRATION AND DISSEMINATION

Funded by NIHR HTA (16/167/56), 1 June 2018; National Research Ethic Committee approved (18/WA/0236), 26 July 2018. First site opened 5 November 2018 and final results will be updated on trial registries and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal and will inform rehabilitation strategies after a TASD. Study Within A Trial (SWAT) funded by MRC (MR/R013748/1), 1 May 2019; registered on the MRC-HTMR All-Ireland Hub (reference number SWAT 121).

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN63184243. (Trial stage: Pre-results).

Modelling the Anatomical Distribution of Neurological Events in COVID-19 Patients: A Systematic Review

Background

Neuropathology caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been reported across several studies. The characterisation of the spatial distribution of these pathology remains critical to assess long and short-term neurological sequelae of COVID-19. To this end, Mathematical models can be used to characterise the location and aetiologies underlying COVID-19-related neuropathology.

Method

We performed a systematic review of the literature to quantify the locations of small neurological events identified with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) among COVID-19 patients. Neurological events were localised into the Desikan-Killiany grey and white matter atlases. A mathematical network diffusion model was then used to test whether the spatial distribution of neurological events could be explained via a linear spread through the structural connectome of the brain.

Findings

We identified 35 articles consisting of 123 patients that assessed the spatial distribution of small neurological events among COVID-19 patients. Of these, 91 patients had grey matter changes, 95 patients had white matter changes and 72 patients had confirmed cerebral microbleeds. White matter events were observed within 14 of 42 white matter bundles from the IIT atlas. The highest proportions (26%) of events were observed within the bilateral corticospinal tracts. The splenium and middle of the corpus callosum were affected in 14% and 9% of the cases respectively. Grey matter events were spatially distributed in the 41 brain regions within the Desikan-Killiany atlas. The highest proportions (∼10%) of the events were observed in areas including the bilateral superior temporal, precentral, and lateral occipital cortices. Sub-cortical events were most frequently identified in the Pallidum. The application of a mathematical network diffusion model suggested that the spatial pattern of the small neurological events in COVID-19 can be modelled with a linear diffusion of spread from epicentres in the bilateral cerebellum and basal ganglia (Pearson's r =0.41, p <0.001, corrected).

Interpretation

To our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically characterise the spatial distribution of small neurological events in COVID-19 patients and test whether the spatial distribution of these events can be explained by a linear diffusion spread model. The location of neurological events is consistent with commonly identified neurological symptoms including alterations in conscious state among COVID-19 patients that require brain imaging. Given the prevalence and severity of these manifestations, clinicians should carefully monitor neurological symptoms within COVID-19 patients and their potential long-term sequelae .

Retrograde intramedullary nail fixation compared with fixed-angle plate fixation for fracture of the distal femur: the TrAFFix feasibility RCT

BACKGROUND

Fractures of the distal femur are an increasingly common injury; the optimal management of these injuries remains controversial. The two interventions used in UK practice are intramedullary fixation, with a locked retrograde nail, and extramedullary fixation, with a fixed angle plate.

OBJECTIVES

This study assessed the feasibility of a definitive trial and included a process evaluation to understand the generalisability and likely success of a future trial.

DESIGN

A multicentre, parallel, two-arm, randomised controlled feasibility trial with an embedded process evaluation. Treatment with a plate or nail was allocated in a 1 : 1 ratio, stratified by centre and chronic cognitive impairment. Surgeons were not blinded, but participants were not told their allocation.

SETTING

Seven NHS hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged ≥ 18 years with a fracture of the distal femur who the attending surgeon believed would benefit from internal fixation were potentially eligible. Patients were excluded if they had a loose arthroplasty requiring revision or a femoral deformity or arthroplasty that precluded nail fixation. The sample was recruited between 29 September 2016 and 31 August 2017. Consent was obtained from the patient or appropriate consultee before enrolment.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients were randomised to receive fixation of their distal femur fracture with either a proximally and distally locked retrograde nail that spanned the diaphysis of the femur or an anatomical distal femoral locking plate with at least one locked screw distal to the fracture. Reduction and supplemental fixation were at the surgeon's discretion.

OUTCOMES

The primary outcome measures for this study were the recruitment rate and the completion rate of the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version (EQ-5D-5L), at 6 weeks and 4 months. Additional measurements included baseline characteristics, measures of social support and self-efficacy, disability rating index, dementia quality-of-life measures and a radiographical assessment of any malunion. Participants' and staff views were obtained, at interview, for the process evaluation.

RESULTS

The process evaluation showed that surgeon-related factors, principally confidence with both technologies and a lack of individual equipoise, were key barriers to recruitment. A total of 23 participants were randomised and analysed (nail, n = 11; plate, n = 12). The recruitment rate was estimated as 0.42 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.27 to 0.62] participants per centre per month, lower than the prespecified feasibility threshold of 1.0 participants per centre per month. Data completeness of the EQ-5D-5L was estimated at 65% (95% CI 43% to 83%).

CONCLUSIONS

This feasibility study has challenged many of the assumptions that underpinned the development of proposed definitive trial protocol. A modified protocol is proposed that would be feasible given the recruitment rate observed here, which is equal to that reported in the similar FixDT trial [Health Technology Assessment (HTA) 11/136/04: Costa ML, Achten J, Hennings S, Boota N, Griffin J, Petrou S, et al. Intramedullary nail fixation versus locking plate fixation for adults with a fracture of the distal tibia: the UK FixDT RCT. Health Technol Assess 2018;22(25)], which delivered to target and budget.

FUTURE WORK

A definitive trial with a modified design is recommended, including an internal pilot to confirm initial recruitment rate assumptions.

REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN92089567.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 51. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. Funding was also supported by the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Meniscal Tear Outcome (METRO) review: a protocol for a systematic review summarising the clinical course and patient experiences of meniscal tears in the current literature

INTRODUCTION

Meniscal tears are a common knee injury with an incidence of 60 per 100 000. Management of meniscal tears can include either non-operative measures or operative procedures such as arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM). Despite substantial research evaluating the effectiveness of APM in the recent past, little is known about the clinical course or the experiences of patients with a meniscal tear.

AIM

To summarise the short to long-term patterns of variability in outcome in patients with a meniscal tear.To summarise the evidence on patient experiences of meniscal tears. In particular, we will focus on patient experiences of treatment options, treatment pathways and their views of the outcomes used in meniscal tear research.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Two search strategies will be developed to identify citations from EMBASE, MEDLINE, AMED, CENTRAL, Web of Science and Sociofile. The date of our planned search is 14 August 2020. For the quantitative review we will identify studies reporting patient-reported outcome measures in patients after a meniscal tear. The standardised mean change will be used to assess the variation in size of response and summarise the overall response to each treatment option. All studies will undergo quality assessment using either the Cochrane risk of bias or the Newcastle-Ottawa tool.A qualitative systematic review will be used to identify studies reporting views and experiences of patients with a meniscal tear. All studies will be assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme tool and if sufficient data are present a meta-synthesis will be performed to identify first, second and third-order constructs.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Given the nature of this study, no formal ethical approval will be sought. Results from the review will be disseminated at national conferences and will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal for publication. Lay summaries will be freely available via the study Twitter page.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019122179.

Meniscal tear outcome Study (METRO Study): a study protocol for a multicentre prospective cohort study exploring the factors which affect outcomes in patients with a meniscal tear

INTRODUCTION

This study is designed to explore the baseline characteristics of patients under 55 years of age with a meniscal tear, and to describe the relationship between the baseline characteristics and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) over 12 months. Research has highlighted the need for a trial to investigate the effectiveness of arthroscopic meniscectomy in younger patients. Before this trial, we need to understand the patient population in greater detail.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a multicentre prospective cohort study. Participants aged between 18 and 55 years with an MRI confirmed meniscal tear are eligible for inclusion. Baseline characteristics including age, body mass index, gender, PROMs duration of symptoms and MRI will be collected. The primary outcome measure is the Western Ontario Meniscal Evaluation Tool at 12 months. Secondary outcome measures will include PROMs such as EQ5D, Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score and patient global impression of change score at 3, 6 and 12 months.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study obtained approval from the National Research Ethics Committee West Midlands-Black Country research ethics committee (19/WM/0079) on 12 April 2019. The study is sponsored by the University of Warwick. The results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publication.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

UHCW R&D Reference: IA428119. University of Warwick Sponsor ID: SC.08/18-19.

Protocol for a randomised controlled trial of Subacromial spacer for Tears Affecting Rotator cuff Tendons: a Randomised, Efficient, Adaptive Clinical Trial in Surgery (START:REACTS)

INTRODUCTION

Shoulder pain due to irreparable rotator cuff tears can cause substantial disability, but treatment options are limited. A balloon spacer is a relatively simple addition to a standard arthroscopic debridement procedure, but it is costly and there is no current randomised trial evidence to support its use. This trial will evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a subacromial balloon spacer for individuals undergoing arthroscopic debridement for irreparable rotator cuff tears.New surgical procedures can provide substantial benefit to patients. Good quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are needed, but trials in surgery are typically long and expensive, exposing patients to risk and the healthcare system to substantial costs. One way to improve the efficiency of trials is with an adaptive sample size. Such methods are well established in drug trials but have rarely, if ever, been used in surgical trials.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Subacromial spacer for Tears Affecting Rotator cuff Tendons: a Randomised, Efficient, Adaptive Clinical Trial in Surgery (START:REACTS) is a participant and assessor blinded, adaptive, multicentre RCT comparing arthroscopic debridement with the InSpace balloon (Stryker, USA) to arthroscopic debridement alone for people with a symptomatic irreparable rotator cuff tear. It uses a group sequential adaptive design where interim analyses are performed using all of the 3, 6 and 12-month data that are available at each time point. A maximum of 221 participants will be randomised (1:1 ratio), this will provide 90% power (at the 5% level) for a 6 point difference in the primary outcome; the Oxford Shoulder Score at 12 months. A substudy will use deltoid-active MRI scans in 56 participants to assess the function of the balloon. Analysis will be on an intention-to-treat basis and reported according to principles established in the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials statement.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

NRES number 18/WM/0025. The results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed publications, presentations at conferences, lay summaries and social media.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN17825590.

Adaptive seamless clinical trials using early outcomes for treatment or subgroup selection: Methods, simulation model and their implementation in R

Adaptive seamless designs combine confirmatory testing, a domain of phase III trials, with features such as treatment or subgroup selection, typically associated with phase II trials. They promise to increase the efficiency of development programmes of new drugs, for example, in terms of sample size and/or development time. It is well acknowledged that adaptive designs are more involved from a logistical perspective and require more upfront planning, often in the form of extensive simulation studies, than conventional approaches. Here, we present a framework for adaptive treatment and subgroup selection using the same notation, which links the somewhat disparate literature on treatment selection on one side and on subgroup selection on the other. Furthermore, we introduce a flexible and efficient simulation model that serves both designs. As primary endpoints often take a long time to observe, interim analyses are frequently informed by early outcomes. Therefore, all methods presented accommodate interim analyses informed by either the primary outcome or an early outcome. The R package asd, previously developed to simulate designs with treatment selection, was extended to include subgroup selection (so‐called adaptive enrichment designs). Here, we describe the functionality of the R package asd and use it to present some worked‐up examples motivated by clinical trials in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and oncology. The examples both illustrate various features of the R package and provide insights into the operating characteristics of adaptive seamless studies.

Economic evaluation plan of a RCT of hydroxyapatite-coated uncemented hemiarthroplasty versus cemented hemiarthroplasty for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures

Aim

This paper describes the methods applied to assess the cost-effectiveness of cemented versus uncemented hemiarthroplasty among hip fracture patients in the World Hip Trauma Evaluation Five (WHiTE5) trial.

Methods

A within-trial cost-utility analysis (CUA) will be conducted at four months postinjury from a health system (National Health Service and personal social services) perspective. Resource use pertaining to healthcare utilization (i.e. inpatient care, physiotherapy, social care, and home adaptations), and utility measures (quality-adjusted life years) will be collected at one and four months (primary outcome endpoint) postinjury; only treatment of complications will be captured at 12 months. Sensitivity analysis will be conducted to assess the robustness of the results.

Conclusion

The planned analysis strategy described here records our intent to conduct a within-trial CUA alongside the WHiTE5 trial.

Platelet rich plasma versus placebo for the management of Achilles tendinopathy: protocol for the UK study of Achilles tendinopathy management (ATM) multi-centre randomised trial

INTRODUCTION

In the UK, 150 000 people every year experience mid-substance Achilles tendinopathy. Typically patients are offered a range of treatment options such as exercise, electrotherapy, injections and surgery. With large variations in current practice, there is a pressing need to establish which treatments are effective and which are not. This is the protocol for a multi-centre randomised trial of platelet rich plasma (PRP) versus placebo injection for patients with Achilles tendinopathy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Adult patients with mid-substance Achilles tendinopathy for longer than 3 months will be screened. Randomisation will be on a 1:1 basis, stratified by centre and bilateral presentation. Participants will be allocated to either a single PRP injection or placebo injection. A minimum of 240 patients will be recruited into the study; this number will provide 90% power to detect a difference of 12 points in Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Achilles score at 6 months. Quality of life, pain and complications data will be collected at baseline, 2-week, 3-month and 6-month post-randomisation. The differences between treatment groups will be assessed on an intention-to-treat basis.

ETHICS, REGISTRATION AND DISSEMINATION

This trial was funded by Versus Arthritis and commenced on 1 September 2015 (Versus Arthritis 20831). National Research Ethic Committee approved this study on 30 October 2015 (15/WM/0359). It was registered on the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) registry with reference number ISRCTN 13254422 on 28 October 2015. The first site opened to recruitment on 27 April 2016 and the trial was in active recruitment at the point of submitting the protocol paper. The results of this trial will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal and will inform clinical practice with regard to the treatment of Achilles tendinopathy.

The relationship of embolic particle size to patient outcomes in prostate artery embolisation for benign prostatic hyperplasia: a systematic review and meta-regression

AIM

To explore the relationship of embolic particle size used in prostate artery embolisation (PAE) to patient outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic review of PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane database was undertaken to identify all existing studies using PAE for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). Inclusion criteria included prospective studies reporting baseline and 12-month International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) and particle size. Exclusion criteria were overlapping studies, commentaries, abstracts, and letters. Data extraction from eligible studies included the size of embolic particle, particle material, and baseline and 12-month values for the following patient outcomes: IPSS, IPSS quality of life, urinary flow rate (Q-max), prostate volume, prostate specific antigen, and post-void residual volume. A meta-regression analysis was then undertaken to examine the relationship of particle size to patient outcome measures.

RESULTS

Six studies with a total of 687 patients were identified. Meta-regression analysis demonstrated particle size as a statistically significant (p<0.001) moderator of 12-month IPSS change following PAE. No statistically significant relationships were identified with other patient outcome measures.

CONCLUSION

Smaller embolic particle size is associated with a greater reduction in IPSS following PAE.

Randomised controlled trial comparing hydroxyapatite coated uncemented hemiarthroplasty with cemented hemiarthroplasty for the treatment of displaced intracapsular hip fractures: a protocol for the WHITE 5 study

INTRODUCTION

Hip fracture is a serious injury in adults, especially those aged over 60 years. The most common type of hip fracture (displaced intracapsular) is treated for the majority of patients with a partial hip replacement (hemiarthroplasty). The hemiarthroplasty implant can be fixed to the bone with or without bone cement. Cement is the current recommended technique but recently some risks have been identified, which could potentially be avoided by using uncemented implants. Controversy, therefore, remains about which type of hemiarthroplasty offers patients the best outcomes.This is the protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial comparing cemented hemiarthroplasty versus uncemented hemiarthroplasty for patients 60 years and over with a displaced intracapsular hip fracture.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Multicentre (a minimum of seven UK hospitals), multisurgeon, parallel group, two-arm, superiority, randomised controlled trial. Patients aged 60 years and older with a displaced intracapsular hip fracture treated with hemiarthroplasty surgery are eligible. Participants will be randomly allocated on a 1:1 basis to either a cemented hemiarthroplasty or a modern hydroxyapatite coated uncemented hemiarthroplasty. Otherwise all care will be in accordance with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance. A minimum of 1128 patients will be recruited to obtain 90% power to detect a 0.075-point difference in the primary endpoint: health-related quality of life (EuroQol 5 dimensions 5 levels) at 4 months postinjury. The treatment effect will be estimated using a two-sided t-test adjusted for age, gender and cognitive impairment based on an intention-to-treat analysis. Secondary outcomes include mortality, complications including revision surgery and cause, mobility status, residential status, health-related quality of life at 1 and 12 months and health resource use. A within-trial economic analysis will be conducted.

ETHICS, DISSEMINATION AND FUNDING

Wales Research Ethics Committee 5 approved the feasibility phase on 2 December 2016 (16/WA/0351) and the definitive trial on 22 November 2017 (17/WA/0383). This study is sponsored by the University of Oxford and funded by the National Institute for Health Research, Research for Patient Benefit (PB-PG-0215-36043 and PB-PG-1216-20021). A manuscript for a peer-reviewed journal will be prepared and the results shared with patients via local mechanisms at participating centres.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN18393176.

Single-subject manual independent component analysis and resting state fMRI connectivity outcomes in patients with juvenile absence epilepsy

The quality of fMRI data impacts functional connectivity measures and consequently, the decisions that clinicians and researchers make regarding functional connectivity interpretation. The present study used resting state fMRI to investigate resting state network connectivity in a sample of patients with Juvenile Absence Epilepsy. Single-subject manual independent component analysis was used in two levels, whereby all noise components were removed, and cerebrospinal fluid pulsation components only were isolated and removed. Improved temporal signal to noise ratios and functional connectivity metrics were observed in each of the cleaning levels for both epilepsy and control cohorts. Results showed full, single-subject manual independent component analysis reduced the number of functional connectivity correlations and increased the strength of these correlations. Similar effects were also observed for the cerebrospinal fluid pulsation only cleaned data relative to the uncleaned, and fully cleaned data. Single-subject manual independent component analysis coupled with short TR multiband acquisition can significantly improve the validity of findings derived from fMRI data sets.

Cost-effectiveness of negative-pressure wound therapy in adults with severe open fractures of the lower limb: evidence from the WOLLF randomized controlled trial

Aims

The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of negative-pressure wound therapy (NPWT) in comparison with standard wound management after initial surgical wound debridement in adults with severe open fractures of the lower limb.

Patients and Methods

An economic evaluation was conducted from the perspective of the United Kingdom NHS and Personal Social Services, based on evidence from the 460 participants in the Wound Management of Open Lower Limb Fractures (WOLLF) trial. Economic outcomes were collected prospectively over the 12-month follow-up period using trial case report forms and participant-completed questionnaires. Bivariate regression of costs (given in £, 2014 to 2015 prices) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), with multiple imputation of missing data, was conducted to estimate the incremental cost per QALY gained associated with NPWT dressings. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were undertaken to assess the impacts of uncertainty and heterogeneity, respectively, surrounding aspects of the economic evaluation.

Results

The base case analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £267 910 per QALY gained, reflecting higher costs on average (£678; 95% confidence interval (CI) -£1082 to £2438) and only marginally higher QALYS (0.002; 95% CI -0.054 to 0.059) in the NPWT group. The probability that NPWT is cost-effective in this patient population did not exceed 27% regardless of the value of the cost-effectiveness threshold. This result remained robust to several sensitivity and subgroup analyses.

Conclusion

This trial-based economic evaluation suggests that NPWT is unlikely to be a cost-effective strategy for improving outcomes in adult patients with severe open fractures of the lower limb. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2019;101-B:1392–1401.

Communicating benign biopsy results by telephone in the NHS Breast Screening Programme: a protocol for a cluster randomised crossover trial

INTRODUCTION

One of the main harms from breast cancer screening is the anxiety caused by false positive results. Various factors may be associated with false-positive anxiety. One modifiable factor may be the method of communication used to deliver results. The aim of this study is to measure the effect on anxiety of receiving benign biopsy results in-person or by telephone.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a multi-centre cluster randomised crossover trial in the English National Health Service Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP) involving repeated survey measures at four time points. Participants will be women of screening age who have a biopsy following a suspicious mammography result, who ultimately receive a benign or normal (B1) result. Centres will trial both telephone and in-person results on a month-by-month basis, being randomised to which communication method will be trialled first. Women will be blinded to the method of communication they will receive. The analysis will compare women who have received telephone results and women who have received in-person results. The primary outcome measure will be anxiety (measured by the Psychological Consequences Questionnaire) after receiving results, while controlling for baseline anxiety. Secondary outcome measures will include anxiety at 3 and 6 months post-results, understanding of results and patient preferences for how results are communicated. Qualitative telephone interviews will also be conducted to further explore women's reasons for communication preferences. Qualitative and quantitative data will be integrated after initial separate analysis using the pillar integration process.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by the Public Health England Breast Screening Programme Research Advisory Committee, (BSPRAC_0013, ODR1718_040) and the National Health Service Health Research Authority (HRA) West Midlands-Coventry & Warwickshire Research Ethics Committee (17/WM/0313). The findings from this study will be disseminated to key stakeholders within the NHSBSP and via academic publications.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN36997684 TRIAL SPONSOR: This research is part of a PhD award and is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council Doctoral Training Centre at the University of Warwick and Public Health England. The sponsor for this research is Jane Prewett (sponsorship@warwick.ac.uk).

Five-year study assessing the clinical utility of anti-Müllerian hormone measurements in reproductive-age women with cancer

RESEARCH QUESTION

An important discussion point before chemotherapy is ovarian toxicity, a side-effect that profoundly affects young women with cancer. Their quality of life after successful treatment, including the ability to conceive, is a major concern. We asked whether serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) measurements before chemotherapy for two most common malignancies are predictive of long-term changes in ovarian reserve?

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study measured serum AMH in 66 young women with lymphoma and breast cancer, before and at 1 year and 5 years after chemotherapy, compared with 124 healthy volunteers of the same age range (18-43 years). Contemporaneously, patients reported their menses and live births during 5-year follow-up.

RESULTS

After adjustment for age, serum AMH was 1.4 times higher (95% CI 1.1 to 1.9; P < 0.02) in healthy volunteers than in cancer patients before chemotherapy. A strong correlation was observed between baseline and 5-year AMH in the breast cancer group (P < 0.001, regression coefficient = 0.58, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.89). No significant association was found between presence of menses at 5 years and serum AMH at baseline (likelihood ratio test from logistics regression analysis).

CONCLUSIONS

Reproductive-age women with malignancy have lower serum AMH than healthy controls even before starting chemotherapy. Pre-chemotherapy AMH was significantly associated with long-term ovarian function in women with breast cancer. At key time points, AMH measurements could be used as a reproductive health advisory tool for young women with cancer. Our results highlight the unsuitability of return of menstruation as a clinical indicator of ovarian reserve after chemotherapy.

Intramedullary nails versus distal locking plates for fracture of the distal femur: results from the Trial of Acute Femoral Fracture Fixation (TrAFFix) randomised feasibility study and process evaluation

OBJECTIVES

This feasibility study and process evaluation assessed the likely success of a definitive trial of intramedullary fixation with locked retrograde nails versus extramedullary fixation with fixed angle plates for fractures of the distal femur.

DESIGN & SETTING

A multicentre, parallel, two-arm, randomised controlled feasibility study with an embedded process evaluation was conducted at seven NHS hospitals in England. Treatment was randomly allocated in 1:1 ratio, stratified by centre and chronic cognitive impairment. Participants, but not surgeons or research staff, were blinded to the allocation.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients 18 years and older with a fracture of the distal femur, who their surgeon believed would benefit from internal fixation, were eligible to take part.Participants were allocated to receive either a retrograde intramedullary nail or an anatomical locking plate.

OUTCOMES

The primary outcomes for this feasibility study were the recruitment rate and completion rate of the EQ-5D-5L at 4 months post-randomisation. Baseline characteristics, disability rating index, quality of life scores, measurements of social support and self-efficacy, resource use and radiographic assessments were also collected. The views of patients and staff were collected during interviews.

RESULTS

Recruitment and data completion were lower than expected. 23 of 82 eligible patients were recruited (nail, 11; plate, 12). The recruitment rate was estimated as 0.42 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.62) participants per centre-month. Data completeness of the EQ-5D-5L at 4 months was 61 per cent (95% CI 43% to 83%). The process evaluation demonstrated that the main barriers to recruitment were variation in treatment pathways across centres, lack of surgeon equipoise and confidence in using both interventions and newly formed research cultures that lacked cohesion.

CONCLUSIONS

A modified trial design, with embedded recruitment support intervention, comparing functional outcome in cognitively intact adults who have sustained a fragility fracture of the distal femur is feasible.

ETHICS APPROVAL

The Wales Research Ethics Committee 5 approved the study (ref: 16/WA/0225).

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN92089567; Pre-results.

Cast versus functional brace in the rehabilitation of patients treated for an ankle fracture: protocol for the UK study of ankle injury rehabilitation (AIR) multicentre randomised trial

INTRODUCTION

Each year in the UK over 120 000 people fracture their ankle. It is not known what the best rehabilitation strategy is for these people. Traditionally standard care has involved immobilisation in a plaster cast but an alternative is a functional brace, which can be removed to allow early movement. This paper details the protocol for a multicentre randomised trial of plaster cast immobilisation versus functional bracing for patients with an ankle fracture.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will recruit adults with a fractured ankle, for which the treating clinician would consider plaster cast to be a reasonable management option. Randomisation will be on a 1:1 basis, stratified by centre, operative or non-operative management and age. Participants will be allocated to either plaster cast or a functional brace, both treatments are widely used. To have 90% power to detect a difference of 10 points on the primary outcome (Olerud and Molander Ankle Score) at the primary outcome time point (16 weeks), we need to randomise a minimum of 478 people. Quality of life and resource use will be collected at 6, 10, 16, 24 weeks and 12, 18, 24 months. The differences between treatment groups will be assessed on an intention-to-treat basis. The economic evaluation will adhere to the recommendations of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence reference case.

ETHICS, REGISTRATION AND DISSEMINATION

National Research Ethic Committee approved this study on 4 July 2017 (17/WM/0239). The first site opened to recruitment 9 October 2017. The results of this trial will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal and will inform clinical practice.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN15537280; Pre-results.