Response of diademed sifaka (Propithecus diadema) to fosa (Cryptoprocta ferox) predation in the Betampona Strict Nature Reserve, Madagascar

Large-bodied mammals living in fragmented habitats are at higher risk of extinction, and such risk can be influenced by ecological factors such as predator-prey system dynamics. These dynamics can be particularly complex for conservation management when one endangered species preys on another endangered species in an isolated or poor-quality habitat. Here we describe predation events observed over 19 months that involved two threatened species: the largest carnivore in Madagascar, the fosa (Cryptoprocta ferox), and three groups of diademed sifaka (Propithecus diadema) in the Betampona Strict Nature Reserve. This site is a 22 km2 low-altitude rainforest that is surrounded by agricultural land and isolated from larger forest corridors. We aim to (1) assess the behavioral changes of P. diadema in response to fosa attacks and identify any antipredator strategies that they adopted, and (2) quantify the frequency of fosa attacks and the predation impact on the sifaka population. We report five direct observations of fosa predation attempts (one successful), the discovery of a dead sifaka with evidence of fosa predation, and the disappearance of three individuals. We describe the observed attacks and compare the sifaka activity budgets and movement patterns before and after the events. To escape the predator, sifakas fled short distances, hid, and remained vigilant. The impact of predation, combined with low reproductive rates and potentially high inbreeding of this isolated diademed sifaka population, could affect the survival of this species in Betampona. Given the compounding effects of habitat isolation and high hunting pressure, community-specific conservation strategies should incorporate predator-prey dynamics via longitudinal monitoring of predator and prey population densities and quantifying the predation pressure between them.

Fatigue and vigilance in medical experts detecting breast cancer

An abundance of laboratory-based experiments has described a vigilance decrement of reducing accuracy to detect targets with time on task, but there are few real-world studies, none of which have previously controlled the environment to control for bias. We describe accuracy in clinical practice for 360 experts who examined >1 million women's mammograms for signs of cancer, whilst controlling for potential biases. The vigilance decrement pattern was not observed. Instead, test accuracy improved over time, through a reduction in false alarms and an increase in speed, with no significant change in sensitivity. The multiple-decision model explains why experts miss targets in low prevalence settings through a change in decision threshold and search quit threshold and propose it should be adapted to explain these observed patterns of accuracy with time on task. What is typically thought of as standard and robust research findings in controlled laboratory settings may not directly apply to real-world environments and instead large, controlled studies in relevant environments are needed.

Evidence-informed recommendations on managing breast screening atypia: perspectives from an expert panel consensus meeting reviewing results from the Sloane atypia project

Evidence-based clinical guidelines are essential to maximize patient benefit and to reduce clinical uncertainty and inconsistency in clinical practice. Gaps in the evidence base can be addressed by data acquired in routine practice. At present, there is no international consensus on management of women diagnosed with atypical lesions in breast screening programmes. Here, we describe how routine NHS breast screening data collected by the Sloane atypia project was used to inform a management pathway that maximizes early detection of cancer and minimizes over-investigation of lesions with uncertain malignant potential. A half-day consensus meeting with 11 clinical experts, 1 representative from Independent Cancer Patients' Voice, 6 representatives from NHS England (NHSE) including from Commissioning, and 2 researchers was held to facilitate discussions of findings from an analysis of the Sloane atypia project. Key considerations of the expert group in terms of the management of women with screen detected atypia were: (1) frequency and purpose of follow-up; (2) communication to patients; (3) generalizability of study results; and (4) workforce challenges. The group concurred that the new evidence does not support annual surveillance mammography for women with atypia, irrespective of type of lesion, or woman's age. Continued data collection is paramount to monitor and audit the change in recommendations.

Atypia detected during breast screening and subsequent development of cancer: observational analysis of the Sloane atypia prospective cohort in England

OBJECTIVE

To explore how the number and type of breast cancers developed after screen detected atypia compare with the anticipated 11.3 cancers detected per 1000 women screened within one three year screening round in the United Kingdom.

DESIGN

Observational analysis of the Sloane atypia prospective cohort in England.

SETTING

Atypia diagnoses through the English NHS breast screening programme reported to the Sloane cohort study. This cohort is linked to the English Cancer Registry and the Mortality and Birth Information System for information on subsequent breast cancer and mortality.

PARTICIPANTS

3238 women diagnosed as having epithelial atypia between 1 April 2003 and 30 June 2018.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Number and type of invasive breast cancers detected at one, three, and six years after atypia diagnosis by atypia type, age, and year of diagnosis.

RESULTS

There was a fourfold increase in detection of atypia after the introduction of digital mammography between 2010 (n=119) and 2015 (n=502). During 19 088 person years of follow-up after atypia diagnosis (until December 2018), 141 women developed breast cancer. Cumulative incidence of cancer per 1000 women with atypia was 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.28 to 2.69), 14.2 (10.3 to 19.1), and 45.0 (36.3 to 55.1) at one, three, and six years after atypia diagnosis, respectively. Women with atypia detected more recently have lower rates of subsequent cancers detected within three years (6.0 invasive cancers per 1000 women (95% confidence interval 3.1 to 10.9) in 2013-18 v 24.3 (13.7 to 40.1) in 2003-07, and 24.6 (14.9 to 38.3) in 2008-12). Grade, size, and nodal involvement of subsequent invasive cancers were similar to those of cancers detected in the general screening population, with equal numbers of ipsilateral and contralateral cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Many atypia could represent risk factors rather than precursors of invasive cancer requiring surgery in the short term. Women with atypia detected more recently have lower rates of subsequent cancers detected, which might be associated with changes to mammography and biopsy techniques identifying forms of atypia that are more likely to represent overdiagnosis. Annual mammography in the short term after atypia diagnosis might not be beneficial. More evidence is needed about longer term risks.

Development and quality appraisal of a new English breast screening linked data set as part of the age, test threshold, and frequency of mammography screening (ATHENA-M) study

OBJECTIVES

To build a data set capturing the whole breast cancer screening journey from individual breast cancer screening records to outcomes and assess data quality.

METHODS

Routine screening records (invitation, attendance, test results) from all 79 English NHS breast screening centres between January 1, 1988 and March 31, 2018 were linked to cancer registry (cancer characteristics and treatment) and national mortality data. Data quality was assessed using comparability, validity, timeliness, and completeness.

RESULTS

Screening records were extracted from 76/79 English breast screening centres, 3/79 were not possible due to software issues. Data linkage was successful from 1997 after introduction of a universal identifier for women (NHS number). Prior to 1997 outcome data are incomplete due to linkage issues, reducing validity. Between January 1, 1997 and March 31, 2018, a total of 11 262 730 women were offered screening of whom 9 371 973 attended at least one appointment, with 139 million person-years of follow-up (a median of 12.4 person years for each woman included) with 73 810 breast cancer deaths and 1 111 139 any-cause deaths. Comparability to reference data sets and internal validity were demonstrated. Data completeness was high for core screening variables (>99%) and main cancer outcomes (>95%).

CONCLUSIONS

The ATHENA-M project has created a large high-quality and representative data set of individual women's screening trajectories and outcomes in England from 1997 to 2018, data before 1997 are lower quality.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

This is the most complete data set of English breast screening records and outcomes constructed to date, which can be used to evaluate and optimize screening.

Analytical performance evaluation of two automated urine sediment analysers using two levels of commercially available quality control material

OBJECTIVES

Evaluate the in-clinic performance of point-of-care sediment analysers, Analyzer V (Vetscan SA, Abaxis) and Analyzer S (SediVue DX, IDEXX), using assayed, bilevel (2 concentrations) urine quality control material to determine if instrument specifications are acceptable for semi-quantitative clinical urine sediment analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Accuracy, precision and clinical utility of Analyzer V and Analyzer S measurements were evaluated using a bilevel, assayed quality control material in 23 veterinary practices.

RESULTS

Photomicrographs taken by the instruments facilitated manual review and quality assessment. Analyzer V and Analyzer S under-identified the presence of cystine crystals with 83 and 13% inaccuracy in the positive quality control material, respectively. Analyzer V and Analyzer S over-reported bacteria in the sterile quality control material with 82 and 94% specificity, respectively. Analyzer V and Analyzer S reported RBCs and WBCs within manufacturer specifications with excellent sensitivity (93 to 100%) and specificity (100%).

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE

Additional improvement is needed to better classify crystal types and reduce false positives for bacteria before clinical use. While normal samples can generally be trusted, a manual review of abnormal samples is required to ensure that clinically important urine components are correctly evaluated. Future studies should evaluate the performance of these instruments with species-specific urine sediment.

Analytical performance evaluation of two automated urine chemistry analysers using two levels of commercially available quality control material

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate two point-of-care urine chemistry analysers, VetScan SA and VetLab UA using assayed, bilevel (two concentrations) urine quality control material to determine if performance is acceptable for semiquantitative clinical urine chemistry analysis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Normal and abnormal urine quality control material sent to 23 veterinary practices was evaluated three times by each clinic on in-clinic automated urinalysis instruments. Accuracy, precision and clinical utility were evaluated.

RESULTS

Normal urine quality control material: Results for blood, glucose, ketones and bilirubin were 100% accurate and precise for both analysers, and pH values were accurately acidic to neutral. However, pH from VetScan SA had clinically significant negative bias. Abnormal urine quality control material: VetScan SA: blood, microalbumin and bilirubin were 100% accurate; glucose, ketones, and protein demonstrated ≤10% inaccuracy; pH demonstrated 34% inaccuracy. VetLab UA: blood, ketones and bilirubin were 100% accurate; glucose and protein demonstrated ≤10% inaccuracy; pH was 100% accurately neutral to alkaline.

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE

VetScan SA had marked negative pH bias versus VetLab UA resulting in clinically significant, overly acidic results. Specific gravity, nitrite, and leukocyte test pads should not be used. Both instruments had excellent performance in normal quality control material. While blood, glucose, protein and bilirubin are correctly identified as present in abnormal quality control material, exact concentrations cannot be interpreted due to imprecision. Only semiquantitative results, not numerical values implying quantification, should be reported from urine test strips.

Comparing outcomes from tailored meta-analysis with outcomes from a setting specific test accuracy study using routine data of faecal calprotectin testing for inflammatory bowel disease

Background

Meta-analyses of test accuracy studies may provide estimates that are highly improbable in clinical practice. Tailored meta-analysis produces plausible estimates for the accuracy of a test within a specific setting by tailoring the selection of included studies compatible with a specific setting using information from the target setting. The aim of this study was to validate the tailored meta-analysis approach by comparing outcomes from tailored meta-analysis with outcomes from a setting specific test accuracy study.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of primary care electronic health records provided setting-specific data on the test positive rate and disease prevalence. This was used to tailor the study selection from a review of faecal calprotectin testing for inflammatory bowel disease for meta-analysis using the binomial method and the Mahalanobis distance method. Tailored estimates were compared to estimates from a study of test accuracy in primary care using the same routine dataset.

Results

Tailoring resulted in the inclusion of 3/14 (binomial method) and 9/14 (Mahalanobis distance method) studies in meta-analysis. Sensitivity and specificity from tailored meta-analysis using the binomial method were 0.87 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.94) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.69) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.999) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.71), respectively using the Mahalanobis distance method. The corresponding estimates for the conventional meta-analysis were 0.94 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.97) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.76) and for the FC test accuracy study of primary care data 0.93 (95%CI 0.89 to 0.96) and 0.61 (95% CI 0.6 to 0.63) to detect IBD at a threshold of 50 μg/g. Although the binomial method produced a plausible estimate, the tailored estimates of sensitivity and specificity were not closer to the primary study estimates than the estimates from conventional meta-analysis including all 14 studies.

Conclusions

Tailored meta-analysis does not always produce estimates of sensitivity and specificity that lie closer to the estimates derived from a primary study in the setting in question. Potentially, tailored meta-analysis may be improved using a constrained model approach and this requires further investigation.

Breast screening atypia and subsequent development of cancer: protocol for an observational analysis of the Sloane database in England (Sloane atypia cohort study)

INTRODUCTION

The National Health Service (NHS) Breast Screening Programme aims to detect cancer earlier when treatment is more effective but can harm women by over diagnosing and overtreating cancers which would never have become symptomatic. As well as breast cancer, a spectrum of atypical epithelial proliferations (atypia) can also be detected as part of screening. This spectrum of changes, while not cancer, may mean that a woman is more likely to develop breast cancer in the future. Follow-up of atypia is not evidence based. We currently do not know which atypia should be detected to avoid future cancer. This study will explore how atypia develops into breast cancer in terms of number of women, time of cancer development, cancer type and severity, and whether this varies for different types of atypia.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Sloane cohort study began in April 2003 with ongoing data collection including atypia diagnosed through screening at screening units in the UK. The database for England has 3645 cases (24 September 2020) of epithelial atypia, with follow-up from 1 to 15 years. The outcomes include subsequent invasive breast cancer and the nature of subsequent cancer. Descriptive statistics will be produced. The observed rates of breast cancer at 1, 3 and 6 years for types of atypia will be reported with CIs, to enable comparison to women in the general population. Time to event methods will be used to describe the time to breast cancer diagnosis for the types of atypia, including flexible parametric modelling if appropriate. Patient representatives from Independent Cancer Patients' Voice are included at every stage of the research.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has received research ethics approval from the University of Warwick Biomedical and Scientific Research Ethics Committee (BSREC 10/20-21, 8 October 2020), Public Health England office for data release approvals (ODR1718_313) and approval from the English Breast Research Advisory Committee (BSPRAC_031). The findings will be disseminated to breast screening clinicians (via journal publication and conference presentation), to the NHS Breast Screening Programme to update their guidelines on how women with atypia should be followed up, and to the general public.

2021 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations: Summary From the Basic Life Support; Advanced Life Support; Neonatal Life Support; Education, Implementation, and Teams; First Aid Task Forces; and the COVID-19 Working Group

The International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation initiated a continuous review of new, peer-reviewed published cardiopulmonary resuscitation science. This is the fifth annual summary of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations; a more comprehensive review was done in 2020. This latest summary addresses the most recently published resuscitation evidence reviewed by International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation task force science experts. Topics covered by systematic reviews in this summary include resuscitation topics of video-based dispatch systems; head-up cardiopulmonary resuscitation; early coronary angiography after return of spontaneous circulation; cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the prone patient; cord management at birth for preterm and term infants; devices for administering positive-pressure ventilation at birth; family presence during neonatal resuscitation; self-directed, digitally based basic life support education and training in adults and children; coronavirus disease 2019 infection risk to rescuers from patients in cardiac arrest; and first aid topics, including cooling with water for thermal burns, oral rehydration for exertional dehydration, pediatric tourniquet use, and methods of tick removal. Members from 6 International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation task forces have assessed, discussed, and debated the quality of the evidence, according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria, and their statements include consensus treatment recommendations or good practice statements. Insights into the deliberations of the task forces are provided in Justification and Evidence-to-Decision Framework Highlights sections. In addition, the task forces listed priority knowledge gaps for further research.

2021 International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations

The International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation initiated a continuous review of new, peer-reviewed published cardiopulmonary resuscitation science. This is the fifth annual summary of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations; a more comprehensive review was done in 2020. This latest summary addresses the most recently published resuscitation evidence reviewed by International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation task force science experts. Topics covered by systematic reviews in this summary include resuscitation topics of video-based dispatch systems; head-up cardiopulmonary resuscitation; early coronary angiography after return of spontaneous circulation; cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the prone patient; cord management at birth for preterm and term infants; devices for administering positive-pressure ventilation at birth; family presence during neonatal resuscitation; self-directed, digitally based basic life support education and training in adults and children; coronavirus disease 2019 infection risk to rescuers from patients in cardiac arrest; and first aid topics, including cooling with water for thermal burns, oral rehydration for exertional dehydration, pediatric tourniquet use, and methods of tick removal. Members from 6 International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation task forces have assessed, discussed, and debated the quality of the evidence, according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria, and their statements include consensus treatment recommendations or good practice statements. Insights into the deliberations of the task forces are provided in Justification and Evidence-to-Decision Framework Highlights sections. In addition, the task forces listed priority knowledge gaps for further research.

Use of artificial intelligence for image analysis in breast cancer screening programmes: systematic review of test accuracy

OBJECTIVE

To examine the accuracy of artificial intelligence (AI) for the detection of breast cancer in mammography screening practice.

DESIGN

Systematic review of test accuracy studies.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from 1 January 2010 to 17 May 2021.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies reporting test accuracy of AI algorithms, alone or in combination with radiologists, to detect cancer in women's digital mammograms in screening practice, or in test sets. Reference standard was biopsy with histology or follow-up (for screen negative women). Outcomes included test accuracy and cancer type detected.

STUDY SELECTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two reviewers independently assessed articles for inclusion and assessed the methodological quality of included studies using the QUality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. A single reviewer extracted data, which were checked by a second reviewer. Narrative data synthesis was performed.

RESULTS

Twelve studies totalling 131 822 screened women were included. No prospective studies measuring test accuracy of AI in screening practice were found. Studies were of poor methodological quality. Three retrospective studies compared AI systems with the clinical decisions of the original radiologist, including 79 910 women, of whom 1878 had screen detected cancer or interval cancer within 12 months of screening. Thirty four (94%) of 36 AI systems evaluated in these studies were less accurate than a single radiologist, and all were less accurate than consensus of two or more radiologists. Five smaller studies (1086 women, 520 cancers) at high risk of bias and low generalisability to the clinical context reported that all five evaluated AI systems (as standalone to replace radiologist or as a reader aid) were more accurate than a single radiologist reading a test set in the laboratory. In three studies, AI used for triage screened out 53%, 45%, and 50% of women at low risk but also 10%, 4%, and 0% of cancers detected by radiologists.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence for AI does not yet allow judgement of its accuracy in breast cancer screening programmes, and it is unclear where on the clinical pathway AI might be of most benefit. AI systems are not sufficiently specific to replace radiologist double reading in screening programmes. Promising results in smaller studies are not replicated in larger studies. Prospective studies are required to measure the effect of AI in clinical practice. Such studies will require clear stopping rules to ensure that AI does not reduce programme specificity.

STUDY REGISTRATION

Protocol registered as PROSPERO CRD42020213590.

The incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in UK primary care: a retrospective cohort study of the IQVIA Medical Research Database

BACKGROUND

Our knowledge of the incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is uncertain. Recent studies reported an increase in prevalence. However, they excluded a high proportion of ambiguous cases from general practice. Estimates are needed to inform health care providers who plan the provision of services for IBD patients. We aimed to estimate the IBD incidence and prevalence in UK general practice.

METHODS

We undertook a retrospective cohort study of routine electronic health records from the IQVIA Medical Research Database covering 14 million patients. Adult patients from 2006 to 2016 were included. IBD was defined as an IBD related Read code or record of IBD specific medication. Annual incidence and 12-month period prevalence were calculated.

RESULTS

The prevalence of IBD increased between 2006 and 2016 from 106.2 (95% CI 105.2-107.3) to 142.1 (95% CI 140.7-143.5) IBD cases per 10,000 patients which is a 33.8% increase. Incidence varied across the years. The incidence across the full study period was 69.5 (95% CI 68.6-70.4) per 100,000 person years.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large study we found higher estimates of IBD incidence and prevalence than previously reported. Estimates are highly dependent on definitions of disease and previously may have been underestimated.

Test accuracy of faecal calprotectin for inflammatory bowel disease in UK primary care: a retrospective cohort study of the IMRD-UK data

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the test accuracy of faecal calprotectin (FC) for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in the primary care setting using routine electronic health records.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort test accuracy study.

SETTING

UK primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

5970 patients (≥18 years) without a previous IBD diagnosis and with a first FC test between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2016. We excluded multiple tests and tests without numeric results in units of µg/g.

INTERVENTION

FC testing for the diagnosis of IBD. Disease status was confirmed by a recorded diagnostic code and/or a drug code of an IBD-specific medication at three time points after the FC test date.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for the differential of IBD versus non-IBD and IBD versus irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) at the 50 and 100 µg/g thresholds.

RESULTS

5970 patients met the inclusion criteria and had at least 6 months of follow-up data after FC testing. 1897 had an IBS diagnosis, 208 had an IBD diagnosis, 31 had a colorectal cancer diagnosis, 80 had more than one diagnosis and 3754 had no subsequent diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 92.9% (88.6% to 95.6%), 61.5% (60.2% to 62.7%), 8.1% (7.1% to 9.2%) and 99.6% (99.3% to 99.7%), respectively, at the threshold of 50 µg/g. Raising the threshold to 100 µg/g missed less than 7% additional IBD cases. Longer follow-up had no effect on test accuracy. Overall, uncertainty was greater for specificity than sensitivity. General practitioners' (GPs') referral decisions did not follow the anticipated clinical pathways in national guidance.

CONCLUSIONS

GPs can be confident in excluding IBD on the basis of a negative FC test in a population with low pretest risk but should interpret a positive test with caution. The applicability of national guidance to general practice needs to be improved.

Information given by websites selling home self-sampling COVID-19 tests: an analysis of accuracy and completeness

OBJECTIVES

To assess the accuracy and completeness of information provided by websites selling home self-sampling and testing kits for COVID-19.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional observational study.

SETTING

All websites (n=27) selling direct to user home self-sampling and testing kits for COVID-19 (41 tests) in the UK (39 tests) and USA (two tests) identified by a website search on 23 May 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Thirteen predefined basic information items to communicate to a user, including who should be tested, when and how testing should be done, test accuracy, and interpretation of results.

RESULTS

Many websites did not provide the name or manufacturer of the test (32/41; 78%), when to use the test (10/41; 24%), test accuracy (12/41; 29%), and how to interpret results (21/41; 51%). Sensitivity and specificity were the most commonly reported test accuracy measures (either reported for 27/41 [66%] tests): we could only link these figures to manufacturers' documents or publications for four (10%) tests. Predictive values, most relevant to users, were rarely reported (five [12%] tests reported positive predictive values). For molecular virus tests, 9/23 (39%) websites explained that test positives should self-isolate, and 8/23 (35%) explained that test negatives may still have the disease. For antibody tests, 12/18 (67%) websites explained that testing positive does not necessarily infer immunity from future infection. Seven (39%) websites selling antibody tests claimed the test had a CE mark, when they were for a different intended use (venous blood rather than finger-prick samples).

CONCLUSIONS

At the point of online purchase of home self-sampling COVID-19 tests, users in the UK are provided with incomplete, and, in some cases, misleading information on test accuracy, intended use, and test interpretation. Best practice guidance for communication about tests to the public should be developed and enforced for online sales of COVID-19 tests.

COVID-19 in cardiac arrest and infection risk to rescuers: A systematic review

Background

There may be a risk of COVID-19 transmission to rescuers delivering treatment for cardiac arrest. The aim of this review was to identify the potential risk of transmission associated with key interventions (chest compressions, defibrillation, cardiopulmonary resuscitation) to inform international treatment recommendations.

Methods

We undertook a systematic review comprising three questions: (1) aerosol generation associated with key interventions; (2) risk of airborne infection transmission associated with key interventions; and (3) the effect of different personal protective equipment strategies. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the World Health Organization COVID-19 database on 24th March 2020. Eligibility criteria were developed individually for each question. We assessed risk of bias for individual studies, and used the GRADE process to assess evidence certainty by outcome.

Results

We included eleven studies: two cohort studies, one case control study, five case reports, and three manikin randomised controlled trials. We did not find any direct evidence that chest compressions or defibrillation either are or are not associated with aerosol generation or transmission of infection. Data from manikin studies indicates that donning of personal protective equipment delays treatment delivery. Studies provided only indirect evidence, with no study describing patients with COVID-19. Evidence certainty was low or very low for all outcomes.

Conclusion

It is uncertain whether chest compressions or defibrillation cause aerosol generation or transmission of COVID-19 to rescuers. There is very limited evidence and a rapid need for further studies.

Review registration: PROSPERO CRD42020175594.

Algorithm based smartphone apps to assess risk of skin cancer in adults: systematic review of diagnostic accuracy studies

OBJECTIVE

To examine the validity and findings of studies that examine the accuracy of algorithm based smartphone applications ("apps") to assess risk of skin cancer in suspicious skin lesions.

DESIGN

Systematic review of diagnostic accuracy studies.

DATA SOURCES

Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, CPCI, Zetoc, Science Citation Index, and online trial registers (from database inception to 10 April 2019).

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Studies of any design that evaluated algorithm based smartphone apps to assess images of skin lesions suspicious for skin cancer. Reference standards included histological diagnosis or follow-up, and expert recommendation for further investigation or intervention. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed validity using QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 tool). Estimates of sensitivity and specificity were reported for each app.

RESULTS

Nine studies that evaluated six different identifiable smartphone apps were included. Six verified results by using histology or follow-up (n=725 lesions), and three verified results by using expert recommendations (n=407 lesions). Studies were small and of poor methodological quality, with selective recruitment, high rates of unevaluable images, and differential verification. Lesion selection and image acquisition were performed by clinicians rather than smartphone users. Two CE (Conformit Europenne) marked apps are available for download. SkinScan was evaluated in a single study (n=15, five melanomas) with 0% sensitivity and 100% specificity for the detection of melanoma. SkinVision was evaluated in two studies (n=252, 61 malignant or premalignant lesions) and achieved a sensitivity of 80% (95% confidence interval 63% to 92%) and a specificity of 78% (67% to 87%) for the detection of malignant or premalignant lesions. Accuracy of the SkinVision app verified against expert recommendations was poor (three studies).

CONCLUSIONS

Current algorithm based smartphone apps cannot be relied on to detect all cases of melanoma or other skin cancers. Test performance is likely to be poorer than reported here when used in clinically relevant populations and by the intended users of the apps. The current regulatory process for awarding the CE marking for algorithm based apps does not provide adequate protection to the public.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42016033595.

Faecal calprotectin to detect inflammatory bowel disease: a systematic review and exploratory meta-analysis of test accuracy

OBJECTIVE

Test accuracy of faecal calprotectin (FC) testing in primary care is inconclusive. We aimed to assess the test accuracy of FC testing in primary care and compare it to secondary care estimates for the detection of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy using a bivariate random effects model. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science until 31 May 2017 and included studies from auto alerts up until 31 January 2018. Eligible studies measured FC levels in stool samples to detect IBD in adult patients with chronic (at least 6-8 weeks) abdominal symptoms in primary or secondary care. Risk of bias and applicability were assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 criteria. We followed the protocol registered as PROSPERO CRD 42012003287.

RESULTS

38 out of 2168 studies were eligible including five from primary care. Comparison of test accuracy by setting was precluded by extensive heterogeneity. Overall, summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were not recorded. At a threshold of 50 µg/g, sensitivity from separate meta-analysis of four assay types ranged from 0.85 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.92) to 0.94 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.90) and specificity from 0.67 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.76) to 0.88 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.94). Across three different definitions of disease, sensitivity ranged from 0.80 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.84) to 0.97 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.99) and specificity from 0.67 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.75) to 0.76 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.84). Sensitivity appears to be lower in primary care and is further reduced at a revised threshold of 100 µg/g.

CONCLUSIONS

Conclusive estimates of sensitivity and specificity of FC testing in primary care for the detection of IBD are still missing. There is insufficient evidence in the published literature to support the decision to introduce FC testing in primary care. Studies evaluating FC testing in an appropriate primary care setting are needed.

Multiplex tests to identify gastrointestinal bacteria, viruses and parasites in people with suspected infectious gastroenteritis: a systematic review and economic analysis

BACKGROUND

Gastroenteritis is a common, transient disorder usually caused by infection and characterised by the acute onset of diarrhoea. Multiplex gastrointestinal pathogen panel (GPP) tests simultaneously identify common bacterial, viral and parasitic pathogens using molecular testing. By providing test results more rapidly than conventional testing methods, GPP tests might positively influence the treatment and management of patients presenting in hospital or in the community.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the evidence for GPP tests [xTAG^® (Luminex, Toronto, ON, Canada), FilmArray (BioFire Diagnostics, Salt Lake City, UT, USA) and Faecal Pathogens B (AusDiagnostics, Beaconsfield, NSW, Australia)] and to develop a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of GPP tests with conventional testing in England and Wales.

DATA SOURCES

Multiple electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and the Cochrane Database were searched from inception to January 2016 (with supplementary searches of other online resources).

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies included patients with acute diarrhoea; comparing GPP tests with standard microbiology techniques; and patient, management, test accuracy or cost-effectiveness outcomes. Quality assessment of eligible studies used tailored Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2, Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards and Philips checklists. The meta-analysis included positive and negative agreement estimated for each pathogen. A de novo decision tree model compared patients managed with GPP testing or comparable coverage with patients managed using conventional tests, within the Public Health England pathway. Economic models included hospital and community management of patients with suspected gastroenteritis. The model estimated costs (in 2014/15 prices) and quality-adjusted life-year losses from a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective.

RESULTS

Twenty-three studies informed the review of clinical evidence (17 xTAG, four FilmArray, two xTAG and FilmArray, 0 Faecal Pathogens B). No study provided an adequate reference standard with which to compare the test accuracy of GPP with conventional tests. A meta-analysis (of 10 studies) found considerable heterogeneity; however, GPP testing produces a greater number of pathogen-positive findings than conventional testing. It is unclear whether or not these additional 'positives' are clinically important. The review identified no robust evidence to inform consequent clinical management of patients. There is considerable uncertainty about the cost-effectiveness of GPP panels used to test for suspected infectious gastroenteritis in hospital and community settings. Uncertainties in the model include length of stay, assumptions about false-positive findings and the costs of tests. Although there is potential for cost-effectiveness in both settings, key modelling assumptions need to be verified and model findings remain tentative.

LIMITATIONS

No test-treat trials were retrieved. The economic model reflects one pattern of care, which will vary across the NHS.

CONCLUSIONS

The systematic review and cost-effectiveness model identify uncertainties about the adoption of GPP tests within the NHS. GPP testing will generally correctly identify pathogens identified by conventional testing; however, these tests also generate considerable additional positive results of uncertain clinical importance.

FUTURE WORK

An independent reference standard may not exist to evaluate alternative approaches to testing. A test-treat trial might ascertain whether or not additional GPP 'positives' are clinically important or result in overdiagnoses, whether or not earlier diagnosis leads to earlier discharge in patients and what the health consequences of earlier intervention are. Future work might also consider the public health impact of different testing treatments, as test results form the basis for public health surveillance.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD2016033320.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Accurate diagnosis of latent tuberculosis in children, people who are immunocompromised or at risk from immunosuppression and recent arrivals from countries with a high incidence of tuberculosis: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) [(Zopf 1883) Lehmann and Neumann 1896], is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Nearly one-third of the world's population is infected with MTB; TB has an annual incidence of 9 million new cases and each year causes 2 million deaths worldwide.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening tests [interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) and tuberculin skin tests (TSTs)] in latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) diagnosis to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline development for three population groups: children, immunocompromised people and those who have recently arrived in the UK from high-incidence countries. All of these groups are at higher risk of progression from LTBI to active TB.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library and Current Controlled Trials were searched from December 2009 up to December 2014.

REVIEW METHODS

English-language studies evaluating the comparative effectiveness of commercially available tests used for identifying LTBI in children, immunocompromised people and recent arrivals to the UK were eligible. Interventions were IGRAs [QuantiFERON(®)-TB Gold (QFT-G), QuantiFERON(®)-TB Gold-In-Tube (QFT-GIT) (Cellestis/Qiagen, Carnegie, VA, Australia) and T-SPOT.TB (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK)]. The comparator was TST 5 mm or 10 mm alone or with an IGRA. Two independent reviewers screened all identified records and undertook a quality assessment and data synthesis. A de novo model, structured in two stages, was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies.

RESULTS

In total, 6687 records were screened, of which 53 unique studies were included (a further 37 studies were identified from a previous NICE guideline). The majority of the included studies compared the strength of association for the QFT-GIT/G IGRA with the TST (5 mm or 10 mm) in relation to the incidence of active TB or previous TB exposure. Ten studies reported evidence on decision-analytic models to determine the cost-effectiveness of IGRAs compared with the TST for LTBI diagnosis. In children, TST (≥ 5 mm) negative followed by QFT-GIT was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £18,900 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. In immunocompromised people, QFT-GIT negative followed by the TST (≥ 5 mm) was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of approximately £18,700 per QALY gained. In those recently arrived from high TB incidence countries, the TST (≥ 5 mm) alone was less costly and more effective than TST (≥ 5 mm) positive followed by QFT-GIT or T-SPOT.TB or QFT-GIT alone.

LIMITATIONS

The limitations and scarcity of the evidence, variation in the exposure-based definitions of LTBI and heterogeneity in IGRA performance relative to TST limit the applicability of the review findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the current evidence, TST (≥ 5 mm) negative followed by QFT-GIT for children, QFT-GIT negative followed by TST (≥ 5 mm) for the immunocompromised population and TST (≥ 5 mm) for recent arrivals were the most cost-effective strategies for diagnosing LTBI that progresses to active TB. These results should be interpreted with caution given the limitations identified. The evidence available is limited and more high-quality research in this area is needed including studies on the inconsistent performance of tests in high-compared with low-incidence TB settings; the prospective assessment of progression to active TB for those at high risk; the relative benefits of two-compared with one-step testing with different tests; and improved classification of people at high and low risk for LTBI.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014009033.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of use of therapeutic monitoring of tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) inhibitors [LISA-TRACKER® enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits, TNF-α-Blocker ELISA kits and Promonitor® ELISA kits] versus standard care in patients with Crohn's disease: systematic reviews and economic modelling

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Systematic reviews and economic modelling of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of therapeutic monitoring of tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) inhibitors [using LISA-TRACKER^® enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits (Theradiag, Marne La Vallee, France, or Alpha Laboratories, Heriot, UK), TNF-α-Blocker ELISA kits (Immundiagnostik AG, Bensheim, Germany) and Promonitor^® ELISA kits (Proteomika, Progenika Biopharma, Bizkaia, Spain)] versus standard care for Crohn's disease (CD).

METHODS

Multiple electronic databases were searched from inception to December 2014 in order to identify primary studies and meta-analyses.

POPULATION

Patients with moderate to severe active CD treated with infliximab (IFX) (Remicade^®, Merck Sharp & Dohme Ltd, Kenilworth, NJ, USA) or adalimumab (ADA) (Humira^®, AbbVie Inc., North Chicago, IL, USA).

INTERVENTION

Monitoring of serum anti-TNF-α (IFX or ADA) and/or of anti-drug antibody levels using test assays with a test-treatment algorithm.

COMPARATOR

Standard care.

OUTCOMES

Any patient-related outcome, test agreement and cost-effectiveness estimates. The quality assessments used recognised checklists (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2, Cochrane, Philips and Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards). Evidence was synthesised using narrative review and meta-analysis. A Markov model was built in TreeAge Pro 2013 (TreeAge Software, Inc., Williamstown, MA, USA). The model had a 4-week cycle and a 10-year time horizon, adopted a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective and used a linked evidence approach. Costs were adjusted to 2013/14 prices and discounted at 3.5%.

RESULTS

We included 68 out of 2434 and 4 out of 2466 studies for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness reviews, respectively. Twenty-three studies comparing test methods were identified. Evidence on test concordance was sparse and contradictory, offering scant data for a linked evidence approach. Three studies [two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and one retrospective observational study] investigated outcomes following implementation of a test algorithm. None used the specified commercial ELISA immunoassay test kits. Neither of the two RCTs demonstrated clinical benefit of a test-treatment regimen. A meta-analysis of 31 studies to estimate test accuracy for predicting clinical status indicated that 20-30% of test results are likely to be inaccurate. The four cost-effectiveness studies suggested that testing results in small cost reductions. In the economic analysis the base-case analysis showed that standard practice (no testing/therapeutic monitoring with the intervention tests) was more costly and more effective than testing for IFX. Sensitivity and scenario analyses gave similar results. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated a 92% likelihood that the 'no-testing' strategy was cost-effective at a willingness to pay of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS

Rigorous systematic reviews were undertaken; however, the underlying evidence base was poor or lacking. There was uncertainty about a linked evidence approach and a lack of gold standard for assay comparison. The only comparative evidence available for economic evaluation was for assays other than the intervention assays.

CONCLUSIONS

Our finding that testing is not cost-effective for IFX should be viewed cautiously in view of the limited evidence. Clinicians should be mindful of variation in performance of different assays and of the absence of standardised approaches to patient assessment and treatment algorithms.

FUTURE WORK RECOMMENDATIONS

There is substantial variation in the underlying treatment pathways and uncertainty in the relative effectiveness of assay- and test-based treatment algorithms, which requires further investigation. There is very little research evidence on ADA or on drug monitoring in children with CD, and conclusions on cost-effectiveness could not be reached for these.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014015278.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Breed related odds ratio and anatomic distribution of canine mast cell tumours in Austria

Objective: An increased risk of mast cell tumours (MCT) in certain breeds has been described repeatedly in the literature. The incidence of MCTs for registered breeds in Austria, an estimate of the risk by means of the odds ratios based on breed as well as the anatomic localisation of MCTs were examined. Material and methods: In the first part of the study, the ranking of breeds in Austria based on 147,802 dogs with known breed (including mixed breed) was determined, based on those dogs included in the laboratory data base from 2000 to 2010. In the second part of the study, 476 dogs were identified with MCTs and analysed by age, sex, Patnaik grade of MCT and breed distribution. The odds ratios with confidence intervals were calculated for all breeds with skin tumours. Results: The age distribution showed a peak in the age group from 6.1 to 8.0 years; 70% of MCTs were localised to the head and trunk. No significant difference was found based on gender. The evaluation of the odds ratios showed that only four of the 20 of the most popular in Austria breeds (Boxer, Bernese Mountain Dog, Golden Retriever, Spaniel) had an increased risk; on the other hand, some breeds which have not been previously identified in the literature were indicated to have a significantly increased risk for MCT (e.g., Dogo Argentino, Tibetan Spaniel, Pyrenean Mountain Dog, Beauceron, and Austrian Smooth-haired Hound). Conclusion and clinical relevance: Because disease risk may influence the popularity of some currently rare breeds, consultation with breeders and owners regarding the identification of the breeds newly identified in this study as an increased risk for development of mast cell tumours is indicated.

Comparison of a full systematic review versus rapid review approaches to assess a newborn screening test for tyrosinemia type 1

BACKGROUND

Rapid reviews are increasingly used to replace/complement systematic reviews to support evidence-based decision-making. Little is known about how this expedited process affects results.

OBJECTIVES

To assess differences between rapid and systematic review approaches for a case study of test accuracy of succinylacetone for detecting tyrosinemia type 1.

METHODS

Two reviewers conducted an "enhanced" rapid review then a systematic review. The enhanced rapid review involved narrower searches, a single reviewer checking 20% of titles/abstracts and data extraction, and quality assessment using an unadjusted QUADAS-2. Two reviewers performed the systematic review with a tailored QUADAS-2. Post hoc analysis examined rapid reviewing with a single reviewer (basic rapid review).

RESULTS

Ten papers were included. Basic rapid reviews would have missed 1 or 4 of these (dependent on which reviewer). Enhanced rapid and systematic reviews identified all 10 papers; one paper was only identified in the rapid review through reference checking. Two thousand one hundred seventy-six fewer title/abstracts and 129 fewer full texts were screened during the enhanced rapid review than the systematic review. The unadjusted QUADAS-2 generated more "unclear" ratings than the adjusted QUADAS-2 [29/70 (41.4%) versus 16/70 (22.9%)], and fewer "high" ratings [22/70 (31.4%) versus 42/70 (60.0%)]. Basic rapid reviews contained important inaccuracies in data extraction, which were detected by a second reviewer in the enhanced rapid and systematic reviews.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhanced rapid reviews with 20% checking by a second reviewer may be an appropriate tool for policymakers to expeditiously assess evidence. Basic rapid reviews (single reviewer) have higher risks of important inaccuracies and omissions.

Evaluation of pre-symptomatic nitisinone treatment on long-term outcomes in Tyrosinemia type 1 patients: a systematic review

Background

Tyrosinemia type 1 (TYR1) is a rare autosomal recessive disorder of amino acid metabolism that is fatal without treatment. With medication (nitisinone) and dietary restrictions outcomes are improved. We conducted a systematic review to investigate if treatment with nitisinone following screening provides better long-term outcomes than treatment with nitisinone following symptomatic detection.

Methods

We searched Web of Science, Medline, Pre-Medline, and Embase up to 23rd September 2016 for journal articles comparing clinical outcomes of TYR1 patients receiving earlier versus later nitisinone treatment. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts, assessed full texts, and appraised study quality. Data extraction was performed by a single reviewer and checked by a second.

Results

We included seven articles out of 470 unique records identified by our search. The seven articles included four studies (three cohort studies and one cross-sectional study). Study sample sizes ranged from 17 to 148. There is consistent evidence that nitisinone is an effective treatment for TYR1, and some evidence that earlier treatment with nitisinone and dietary restrictions within the first one or 2 months of life is associated with reduced need for liver transplantation, lower rates of renal dysfunction, fewer neurological crises, and fewer, shorter hospital admissions compared to later treatment. However, study quality was moderate to weak, with high risk of confounding and applicability concerns to the screening context. We conducted post hoc analyses to address these issues. Results suggested an association between earlier treatment and fewer liver transplants (earlier treatment: 0% of 10–24 patients; later treatment: 25–60% of 4–15 patients), but no impact on neurological crises. We found no effect of treatment timing on mortality in either the primary or post hoc analyses. Post hoc analyses of other health-related outcomes were not possible because of sample size or reporting.

Conclusions

There is some evidence from observational studies that earlier treatment with nitisinone might be beneficial but this is subject to bias. The applicability of our findings to the screening context or clinical practice is limited as not all early-treated patients were identified by screening and late-treated groups included patients born prior to the availability of nitisinone.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13023-017-0696-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Adverse events in women and children who have received intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis treatment: a systematic review

Background

Adverse events from intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) are poorly documented yet essential to inform clinical practice for neonatal group B Streptococcus (GBS) disease prevention. In this systematic review, we appraised and synthesised the evidence on the adverse events of IAP in the mother and/or her child.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, Cochrane, and Science Citation Index from date of inception until October 16th 2016. Reference lists of included studies and relevant systematic reviews were hand-searched. We included primary studies in English that reported any adverse events from intrapartum antibiotics for any prophylactic purpose compared to controls. The search was not restricted to prophylaxis for GBS but excluded women with symptoms of infection or undergoing caesarean section. Two reviewers assessed the methodological quality of studies, using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool, and the Risk of Bias Assessment Tool for Nonrandomised Studies. Results were synthesised narratively and displayed in text and tables.

Results

From 2364 unique records, 30 studies were included. Despite a wide range of adverse events reported in 17 observational studies and 13 randomised controlled trials (RCTs), the evidence was inconsistent and at high risk of bias. Only one RCT investigated the long-term effects of IAP reporting potentially serious outcomes such as cerebral palsy; however, it had limited applicability and unclear biological plausibility. Seven observational studies showed that IAP for maternal GBS colonisation alters the infant microbiome. However, study populations were not followed through to clinical outcomes, therefore clinical significance is unknown. There was also observational evidence for increased antimicrobial resistance, however studies were at high or unclear risk of bias.

Conclusions

The evidence base to determine the frequency of adverse events from intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis for neonatal GBS disease prevention is limited. As RCTs may not be possible, large, better quality, and longitudinal observational studies across countries with widespread IAP could fill this gap.

Trial registration

CRD42016037195.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12884-017-1432-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Test accuracy of drug and antibody assays for predicting response to antitumour necrosis factor treatment in Crohn's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To present meta-analytic test accuracy estimates of levels of antitumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) and antibodies to anti-TNF to predict loss of response or lack of regaining response in patients with anti-TNF managed Crohn's disease.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library and Science Citation Index were searched from inception to October/November 2014 to identify studies which reported 2×2 table data of the association between levels of anti-TNF or its antibodies and clinical status. Hierarchical/bivariate meta-analysis was undertaken with the user-written 'metandi' package of Harbord and Whiting using Stata V.11 software, for infliximab, adalimumab,anti-infliximab and anti-adalimumab levels as predictors of loss of response. Prevalence of Crohn's disease in included studies was meta-analysed using a random effects model in MetaAnalyst software to calculate positive and negative predictive values. The search was updated in January 2017.

RESULTS

31 studies were included in the review. Studies were heterogeneous with respect to the type of test used, criteria for establishing response and loss of response, population examined and results. Meta-analytic summary point estimates for sensitivity and specificity were 65.7% and 80.6% for infliximab trough levels and 56% and 79% for antibodies to infliximab, respectively. Pooled results for adalimumab trough levels and antibodies to adalimumab were similar. Pooled positive and negative predictive values ranged between 70% and 80% implying that between 20% and 30% of both positive and negative test results may be incorrect in predicting loss of response.

CONCLUSION

The available evidence suggests that these tests have modest predictive accuracy for clinical status; direct test accuracy comparisons in the same population are needed. More clinical trial evidence from test-treat studies is required before the clinical utility of the tests can be reliably evaluated.

Reformulations of well-known active ingredients in the topical treatment of psoriasis vulgaris can improve clinical outcomes for patients

Although the majority of patients with psoriasis vulgaris are treated exclusively with topical therapies, research to develop more effective topical therapies that are associated with higher patient satisfaction has lagged behind the development of systemic agents. The aim of this literature review was to determine whether there is documented evidence that applying an innovative approach to improving the formulation of active ingredients commonly used in the topical treatment of psoriasis can have a positive effect on clinical outcomes and patient-reported outcomes (PROs). The Embase and PubMed databases were searched for articles published between 2001 and 2016 that made direct head-to-head comparisons of different formulations of an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), focusing on clinical outcomes and PROs. In total, 22 publications on APIs or API combinations met the eligibility criteria (19 head-to-head clinical trials, one pooled analysis, one health-economic modelling study and one systematic review). Significant clinical benefit associated with the use of a reformulated API over an older formulation was reported in three trials of clobetasol propionate, one trial of calcipotriol, three trials of betamethasone and five trials/pooled analyses of calcipotriol/calcipotriene + betamethasone dipropionate (Cal/BD) formulations. Significantly improved PROs associated with the use of a reformulated API over an older formulation were reported in three trials of clobetasol propionate, one trial of betamethasone valerate and two trials of Cal/BD formulations. These results demonstrate that the innovative reformulation of APIs used in the treatment of psoriasis can produce therapies that attain significantly improved clinical outcomes and PROs. This suggests that improvement in topical therapy for psoriasis need not only to be achieved by the identification of new targets and the development of new APIs, but that improvement in the vehicle used to deliver existing APIs has the potential to result in significant clinical and patient benefits.

Canine Cutaneous Plasmacytosis: 21 Cases (2005-2015)

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous plasmacytosis (CP) is a syndrome of multiple cutaneous plasma cell tumors, in the absence of multiple myeloma. Although rare in both humans and dogs, treatment recommendations are usually extrapolated from multiple myeloma protocols. To date, no case series of CP have been described in the veterinary literature.

HYPOTHESIS/OBJECTIVES

To describe clinical presentation, determine treatment response rates and duration, and report overall survival of dogs with CP.

ANIMALS

Twenty-one client-owned dogs with CP.

METHODS

Medical records of 21 dogs with CP were reviewed. Diagnosis was based on histopathologic evaluation of at least 1 representative cutaneous or subcutaneous lesion in dogs with ≥3 lesions. Dogs with suspicion of multiple myeloma were excluded.

RESULTS

The most commonly affected breeds were the golden (5/21) and Labrador retriever (3/21). Fourteen of 21 dogs had >10 lesions, with some having >100. Lesions commonly were described as round, raised, pink-to-red, and variably alopecic or ulcerated. The most commonly used drug protocol was combined melphalan and prednisone, with an overall response rate (ORR) of 73.7% (14/19 dogs). Single-agent lomustine was associated with a similar ORR of 71.4% (5/7 dogs). For all treatments combined, the median progression-free interval after the first treatment was 153 days. The median survival time from the first treatment was 542 days.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE

Alkylating agents were effective in inducing remission of CP; corticosteroids, melphalan, and lomustine were the most commonly used drugs. Survival times were similar to those reported in dogs with multiple myeloma treated with alkylating agents.

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.].

Newborn screening for Tyrosinemia type 1 using succinylacetone - a systematic review of test accuracy

Background

Tyrosinemia type 1 is an autosomal recessive disorder of amino acid metabolism. Without treatment, death in childhood is common. Treatment with nitisinone and dietary restrictions are associated with improved outcomes; some studies suggest better outcomes when treatment begins at an asymptomatic stage. Newborn screening allows for earlier identification, but there is uncertainty regarding the test accuracy of the current method: succinylacetone measurement in dried blood spots using tandem mass spectrometry.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of literature published up to January 2016. Two reviewers independently assessed titles, abstracts, full texts, and conducted quality appraisals. A single reviewer extracted data, which was checked by a second reviewer.

Results

Ten studies provided test accuracy data: five studies reporting screening experiences and five case–control studies. Sensitivity (29 cases in total) and specificity (34,403 controls in total) were 100% in the case–control studies, but could not be calculated in the studies reporting screening experiences due to a lack of follow-up of screen-negative babies. Positive predictive values in the screening experience studies ranged from 66.7% (2 true positive cases, 1 false positive case from ~500,000 people screened) to 100% (8 true positive cases from 856,671 people screened); negative predictive values could not be calculated. Positive and negative predictive values cannot be calculated from case–control studies.

Conclusions

Screening for Tyrosinemia type 1 using tandem mass spectrometry measurement of succinylacetone from dried blood spots appears to be promising. Confirmation of test accuracy data should be obtained from studies that include a two-year follow-up of individuals who screen negative.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13023-017-0599-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Agreement between gastrointestinal panel testing and standard microbiology methods for detecting pathogens in suspected infectious gastroenteritis: Test evaluation and meta-analysis in the absence of a reference standard

Objective

Multiplex gastrointestinal pathogen panel (GPP) tests simultaneously identify bacterial, viral and parasitic pathogens from the stool samples of patients with suspected infectious gastroenteritis presenting in hospital or the community. We undertook a systematic review to compare the accuracy of GPP tests with standard microbiology techniques.

Review methods

Searches in Medline, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane library were undertaken from inception to January 2016. Eligible studies compared GPP tests with standard microbiology techniques in patients with suspected gastroenteritis. Quality assessment of included studies used tailored QUADAS-2. In the absence of a reference standard we analysed test performance taking GPP tests and standard microbiology techniques in turn as the benchmark test, using random effects meta-analysis of proportions.

Results

No study provided an adequate reference standard with which to compare the test accuracy of GPP and conventional tests. Ten studies informed a meta-analysis of positive and negative agreement. Positive agreement across all pathogens was 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96) when conventional methods were the benchmark and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.77) when GPP provided the benchmark. Negative agreement was high in both instances due to the high proportion of negative cases. GPP testing produced a greater number of pathogen-positive findings than conventional testing. It is unclear whether these additional ‘positives’ are clinically important.

Conclusions

GPP testing has the potential to simplify testing and accelerate reporting when compared to conventional microbiology methods. However the impact of GPP testing upon the management, treatment and outcome of patients is poorly understood and further studies are needed to evaluate the health economic impact of GPP testing compared with standard methods.

The review protocol is registered with PROSPERO as CRD42016033320.

Has Metal-On-Metal Resurfacing Been a Cost-Effective Intervention for Health Care Providers?-A Registry Based Study

Background

Total hip replacement for end stage arthritis of the hip is currently the most common elective surgical procedure. In 2007 about 7.5% of UK implants were metal-on-metal joint resurfacing (MoM RS) procedures. Due to poor revision performance and concerns about metal debris, the use of RS had declined by 2012 to about a 1% share of UK hip procedures. This study estimated the lifetime cost-effectiveness of metal-on-metal resurfacing (RS) procedures versus commonly employed total hip replacement (THR) methods.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We performed a cost-utility analysis using a well-established multi-state semi-Markov model from an NHS and personal and social services perspective. We used individual patient data (IPD) from the National Joint Registry (NJR) for England and Wales on RS and THR surgery for osteoarthritis recorded from April 2003 to December 2012. We used flexible parametric modelling of NJR RS data to guide identification of patient subgroups and RS devices which delivered revision rates within the NICE 5% revision rate benchmark at 10 years. RS procedures overall have an estimated revision rate of 13% at 10 years, compared to <4% for most THR devices. New NICE guidance now recommends a revision rate benchmark of <5% at 10 years. 60% of RS implants in men and 2% in women were predicted to be within the revision benchmark. RS devices satisfying the 5% benchmark were unlikely to be cost-effective compared to THR at a standard UK willingness to pay of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. However, the probability of cost effectiveness was sensitive to small changes in the costs of devices or in quality of life or revision rate estimates.

Conclusion/Significance

Our results imply that in most cases RS has not been a cost-effective resource and should probably not be adopted by decision makers concerned with the cost effectiveness of hip replacement, or by patients concerned about the likelihood of revision, regardless of patient age or gender.

Is monitoring of plasma 5-fluorouracil levels in metastatic / advanced colorectal cancer clinically effective? A systematic review

Background

Pharmacokinetic guided dosing of 5-fluorouracil chemotherapies to bring plasma 5-fluorouracil into a desired therapeutic range may lead to fewer side effects and better patient outcomes. High performance liquid chromatography and a high throughput nanoparticle immunoassay (My5-FU) have been used in conjunction with treatment algorithms to guide dosing. The objective of this study was to assess accuracy, clinical effectiveness and safety of plasma 5-fluorouracil guided dose regimen(s) versus standard regimens based on body surface area in colorectal cancer.

Methods

We undertook a systematic review. MEDLINE; MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations; EMBASE; Cochrane Library; Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings (Web of Science); and NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme were searched from inception to January 2014. We reviewed evidence on accuracy of My5-FU for estimating plasma 5-fluorouracil and on the clinical effectiveness of pharmacokinetic dosing compared to body surface area dosing. Estimates of individual patient data for overall survival and progression-free survival were reconstructed from published studies. Survival and adverse events data were synthesised and examined for consistency across studies.

Results

My5-FU assays were found to be consistent with reference liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Comparative studies pointed to gains in overall survival and in progression-free survival with pharmacokinetic dosing, and were consistent across multiple studies.

Conclusions

Although our analyses are encouraging, uncertainties remain because evidence is mainly from outmoded 5-fluorouracil regimens; a randomised controlled trial is urgently needed to investigate new dose adjustment methods in modern treatment regimens.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-016-2581-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Fluorouracil plasma monitoring: systematic review and economic evaluation of the My5-FU assay for guiding dose adjustment in patients receiving fluorouracil chemotherapy by continuous infusion

BACKGROUND

5-Fluorouracil (5-FU) is a chemotherapy used in colorectal, head and neck (H&N) and other cancers. Dose adjustment is based on body surface area (BSA) but wide variations occur. Pharmacokinetic (PK) dosing is suggested to bring plasma levels into the therapeutic range to promote fewer side effects and better patient outcomes. We investigated the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the My5-FU assay for PK dose adjustment to 5-FU therapy.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the evidence on the accuracy of the My5-FU assay compared with gold standard methods [high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS)]; the effectiveness of My5-FU PK dosing compared with BSA; the effectiveness of HPLC and/or LC-MS compared with BSA; the generalisability of published My5-FU and PK studies; costs of using My5-FU; to develop a cost-effectiveness model.

DATA SOURCES

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index and other databases between January and April 2014.

METHODS

Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts with arbitration and consensus agreement. We undertook quality assessment. We reconstructed Kaplan-Meier plots for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for comparison of BSA and PK dosing. We developed a Markov model to compare My5-FU with BSA dosing which modelled PFS, OS and adverse events, using a 2-week cycle over a 20 year time horizon with a 3.5% discount rate. Health impacts were evaluated from the patient perspective, while costs were evaluated from the NHS and Personal Social Services perspective.

RESULTS

A total of 8341 records were identified through electronic searches and 35 and 54 studies were included in the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness reviews respectively. There was a high apparent correlation between My5-FU, HPLC and LC-MS/mass spectrometer but upper and lower limits of agreement were -18% to 30%. Median OS were estimated as 19.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 17.0 to 21.0] months for PK versus 14.6 (95% CI 14.1 to 15.3) months for BSA for 5-FU+folinic acid (FA); and 27.4 (95% CI 23.2 to 38.8) months for PK versus 20.6 (95% CI 18.4 to 22.9) months for BSA for FOLFOX6 in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). PK versus BSA studies were generalisable to the relevant populations. We developed cost-effectiveness models for mCRC and H&N cancer. The base case assumed a cost per My5-FU assay of £ 61.03. For mCRC for 12 cycles of a oxaliplatin in combination with 5-fluorouracil and FA (FOLFOX) regimen, there was a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain of 0.599 with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £ 4148 per QALY. Probabilistic and scenario analyses gave similar results. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed My5-FU to be 100% cost-effective at a threshold of £ 20,000 per QALY. For H&N cancer, again, given caveats about the poor evidence base, we also estimated that My5-FU is likely to be cost-effective at a threshold of £ 20,000 per QALY.

LIMITATIONS

Quality and quantity of evidence were very weak for PK versus BSA dosing for all cancers with no randomised controlled trials (RCTs) using current regimens. For H&N cancer, two studies of regimens no longer in use were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a linked evidence approach, My5-FU appears to be cost-effective at a willingness to pay of £ 20,000 per QALY for both mCRC and H&N cancer. Considerable uncertainties remain about evidence quality and practical implementation. RCTs are needed of PK versus BSA dosing in relevant cancers.

Pan-retinal photocoagulation and other forms of laser treatment and drug therapies for non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Diabetic retinopathy is an important cause of visual loss. Laser photocoagulation preserves vision in diabetic retinopathy but is currently used at the stage of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR).

OBJECTIVES

The primary aim was to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of pan-retinal photocoagulation (PRP) given at the non-proliferative stage of diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) compared with waiting until the high-risk PDR (HR-PDR) stage was reached. There have been recent advances in laser photocoagulation techniques, and in the use of laser treatments combined with anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) drugs or injected steroids. Our secondary questions were: (1) If PRP were to be used in NPDR, which form of laser treatment should be used? and (2) Is adjuvant therapy with intravitreal drugs clinically effective and cost-effective in PRP?

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for efficacy but other designs also used.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE and EMBASE to February 2014, Web of Science.

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic review and economic modelling.

RESULTS

The Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS), published in 1991, was the only trial designed to determine the best time to initiate PRP. It randomised one eye of 3711 patients with mild-to-severe NPDR or early PDR to early photocoagulation, and the other to deferral of PRP until HR-PDR developed. The risk of severe visual loss after 5 years for eyes assigned to PRP for NPDR or early PDR compared with deferral of PRP was reduced by 23% (relative risk 0.77, 99% confidence interval 0.56 to 1.06). However, the ETDRS did not provide results separately for NPDR and early PDR. In economic modelling, the base case found that early PRP could be more effective and less costly than deferred PRP. Sensitivity analyses gave similar results, with early PRP continuing to dominate or having low incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. However, there are substantial uncertainties. For our secondary aims we found 12 trials of lasers in DR, with 982 patients in total, ranging from 40 to 150. Most were in PDR but five included some patients with severe NPDR. Three compared multi-spot pattern lasers against argon laser. RCTs comparing laser applied in a lighter manner (less-intensive burns) with conventional methods (more intense burns) reported little difference in efficacy but fewer adverse effects. One RCT suggested that selective laser treatment targeting only ischaemic areas was effective. Observational studies showed that the most important adverse effect of PRP was macular oedema (MO), which can cause visual impairment, usually temporary. Ten trials of laser and anti-VEGF or steroid drug combinations were consistent in reporting a reduction in risk of PRP-induced MO.

LIMITATION

The current evidence is insufficient to recommend PRP for severe NPDR.

CONCLUSIONS

There is, as yet, no convincing evidence that modern laser systems are more effective than the argon laser used in ETDRS, but they appear to have fewer adverse effects. We recommend a trial of PRP for severe NPDR and early PDR compared with deferring PRP till the HR-PDR stage. The trial would use modern laser technologies, and investigate the value adjuvant prophylactic anti-VEGF or steroid drugs.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013005408.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Do-not-attempt-cardiopulmonary-resuscitation decisions: an evidence synthesis

Background

Cardiac arrest is the final common step in the dying process. In the right context, resuscitation can reverse the dying process, yet success rates are low. However, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a highly invasive medical treatment, which, if applied in the wrong setting, can deprive the patient of dignified death. Do-not-attempt-cardiopulmonary-resuscitation (DNACPR) decisions provide a mechanism to withhold CPR. Recent scientific and lay press reports suggest that the implementation of DNACPR decisions in NHS practice is problematic.

Aims and objectives

This project sought to identify reasons why conflict and complaints arise, identify inconsistencies in NHS trusts’ implementation of national guidelines, understand health professionals’ experience in relation to DNACPR, its process and ethical challenges, and explore the literature for evidence to improve DNACPR policy and practice.

Methods

A systematic review synthesised evidence of processes, barriers and facilitators related to DNACPR decision-making and implementation. Reports from NHS trusts, the National Reporting and Learning System, the Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman, the Office of the Chief Coroner, trust resuscitation policies and telephone calls to a patient information line were reviewed. Multiple focus groups explored service-provider perspectives on DNACPR decisions. A stakeholder group discussed the research findings and identified priorities for future research.

Results

The literature review found evidence that structured discussions at admission to hospital or following deterioration improved patient involvement and decision-making. Linking DNACPR to overall treatment plans improved clarity about goals of care, aided communication and reduced harms. Standardised documentation improved the frequency and quality of recording decisions. Approximately 1500 DNACPR incidents are reported annually. One-third of these report harms, including some instances of death. Problems with communication and variation in trusts’ implementation of national guidelines were common. Members of the public were concerned that their wishes with regard to resuscitation would not be respected. Clinicians felt that DNACPR decisions should be considered within the overall care of individual patients. Some clinicians avoid raising discussions about CPR for fear of conflict or complaint. A key theme across all focus groups, and reinforced by the literature review, was the negative impact on overall patient care of having a DNACPR decision and the conflation of ‘do not resuscitate’ with ‘do not provide active treatment’.

Limitations

The variable quality of some data sources allows potential overstatement or understatement of findings. However, data source triangulation identified common issues.

Conclusion

There is evidence of variation and suboptimal practice in relation to DNACPR decisions across health-care settings. There were deficiencies in considering, discussing and implementing the decision, as well as unintended consequences of DNACPR decisions being made on other aspects of patient care.

Future work

Recommendations supported by the stakeholder group are standardising NHS policies and forms, ensuring cross-boundary recognition of DNACPR decisions, integrating decisions with overall treatment plans and developing tools and training strategies to support clinician and patient decision-making, including improving communication.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012002669.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Accuracy of non-invasive prenatal testing using cell-free DNA for detection of Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To measure test accuracy of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes using cell-free fetal DNA and identify factors affecting accuracy.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase and the Cochrane Library published from 1997 to 9 February 2015, followed by weekly autoalerts until 1 April 2015.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

English language journal articles describing case-control studies with ≥ 15 trisomy cases or cohort studies with ≥ 50 pregnant women who had been given NIPT and a reference standard.

RESULTS

41, 37 and 30 studies of 2012 publications retrieved were included in the review for Down, Edwards and Patau syndromes. Quality appraisal identified high risk of bias in included studies, funnel plots showed evidence of publication bias. Pooled sensitivity was 99.3% (95% CI 98.9% to 99.6%) for Down, 97.4% (95.8% to 98.4%) for Edwards, and 97.4% (86.1% to 99.6%) for Patau syndrome. The pooled specificity was 99.9% (99.9% to 100%) for all three trisomies. In 100,000 pregnancies in the general obstetric population we would expect 417, 89 and 40 cases of Downs, Edwards and Patau syndromes to be detected by NIPT, with 94, 154 and 42 false positive results. Sensitivity was lower in twin than singleton pregnancies, reduced by 9% for Down, 28% for Edwards and 22% for Patau syndrome. Pooled sensitivity was also lower in the first trimester of pregnancy, in studies in the general obstetric population, and in cohort studies with consecutive enrolment.

CONCLUSIONS

NIPT using cell-free fetal DNA has very high sensitivity and specificity for Down syndrome, with slightly lower sensitivity for Edwards and Patau syndrome. However, it is not 100% accurate and should not be used as a final diagnosis for positive cases.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42014014947.

Total hip replacement and surface replacement for the treatment of pain and disability resulting from end-stage arthritis of the hip (review of technology appraisal guidance 2 and 44): systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Total hip replacement (THR) involves the replacement of a damaged hip joint with an artificial hip prosthesis. Resurfacing arthroplasty (RS) involves replacement of the joint surface of the femoral head with a metal surface covering.

OBJECTIVES

To undertake clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis of different types of THR and RS for the treatment of pain and disability in people with end-stage arthritis of the hip, in particular to compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of (1) different types of primary THR and RS for people in whom both procedures are suitable and (2) different types of primary THR for people who are not suitable for hip RS.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Current Controlled Trials and UK Clinical Research Network (UKCRN) Portfolio Database were searched in December 2012, with searches limited to publications from 2008 and sample sizes of ≥ 100 participants. Reference lists and websites of manufacturers and professional organisations were also screened.

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic reviews of the literature were undertaken to appraise the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different types of THR and RS for people with end-stage arthritis of the hip. Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews were data extracted and risk of bias and methodological quality were independently assessed by two reviewers using the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool and the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) tool. A Markov multistate model was developed for the economic evaluation of the technologies. Sensitivity analyses stratified by sex and controlled for age were carried out to assess the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

A total of 2469 records were screened of which 37 were included, representing 16 RCTs and eight systematic reviews. The mean post-THR Harris Hip Score measured at different follow-up times (from 6 months to 10 years) did not differ between THR groups, including between cross-linked polyethylene and traditional polyethylene cup liners (pooled mean difference 2.29, 95% confidence interval -0.88 to 5.45). Five systematic reviews reported evidence on different types of THR (cemented vs. cementless cup fixation and implant articulation materials) but these reviews were inconclusive. Eleven cost-effectiveness studies were included; four provided relevant cost and utility data for the model. Thirty registry studies were included, with no studies reporting better implant survival for RS than for all types of THR. For all analyses, mean costs for RS were higher than those for THR and mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were lower. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for RS was dominated by THR, that is, THR was cheaper and more effective than RS (for a lifetime horizon in the base-case analysis, the incremental cost of RS was £11,284 and the incremental QALYs were -0.0879). For all age and sex groups RS remained clearly dominated by THR. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed that, for all patients, THR was almost 100% cost-effective at any willingness-to-pay level. There were age and sex differences in the populations with different types of THR and variations in revision rates (from 1.6% to 3.5% at 9 years). For the base-case analysis, for all age and sex groups and a lifetime horizon, mean costs for category E (cemented components with a polyethylene-on-ceramic articulation) were slightly lower and mean QALYs for category E were slightly higher than those for all other THR categories in both deterministic and probabilistic analyses. Hence, category E dominated the other four categories. Sensitivity analysis using an age- and sex-adjusted log-normal model demonstrated that, over a lifetime horizon and at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY, categories A and E were equally likely (50%) to be cost-effective.

LIMITATIONS

A large proportion of the included studies were inconclusive because of poor reporting, missing data, inconsistent results and/or great uncertainty in the treatment effect estimates. This warrants cautious interpretation of the findings. The evidence on complications was scarce, which may be because of the absence or rarity of these events or because of under-reporting. The poor reporting meant that it was not possible to explore contextual factors that might have influenced study results and also reduced the applicability of the findings to routine clinical practice in the UK. The scope of the review was limited to evidence published in English in 2008 or later, which could be interpreted as a weakness; however, systematic reviews would provide summary evidence for studies published before 2008.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with THR, revision rates for RS were higher, mean costs for RS were higher and mean QALYs gained were lower; RS was dominated by THR. Similar results were obtained in the deterministic and probabilistic analyses and for all age and sex groups THR was almost 100% cost-effective at any willingness-to-pay level. Revision rates for all types of THR were low. Category A THR (cemented components with a polyethylene-on-metal articulation) was more cost-effective for older age groups. However, across all age-sex groups combined, the mean cost for category E THR (cemented components with a polyethylene-on-ceramic articulation) was slightly lower and the mean QALYs gained were slightly higher. Category E therefore dominated the other four categories. Certain types of THR appeared to confer some benefit, including larger femoral head sizes, use of a cemented cup, use of a cross-linked polyethylene cup liner and a ceramic-on-ceramic as opposed to a metal-on-polyethylene articulation. Further RCTs with long-term follow-up are needed.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003924.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

TACTIC: Trans-Agency Consortium for Trauma-Induced Coagulopathy

Trauma-induced coagulopathy (TIC) includes heterogeneous coagulopathic syndromes with different underlying causes, and treatment is challenged by limited diagnostic tests to discriminate between these entities in the acute setting. We provide an overview of progress in understanding the mechanisms of TIC and the context for several of the hypotheses that will be tested in 'TACTIC'. Although connected to ongoing clinical trials in trauma, TACTIC itself has no intent to conduct clinical trials. We do anticipate that 'early translation' of promising results will occur. Functions anticipated at this early translational level include: (i) basic science groundwork for future therapeutic candidates; (ii) development of acute coagulopathy scoring systems; (iii) coagulation factor composition-based computational analysis; (iv) characterization of novel analytes including tissue factor, polyphosphates, histones, meizothrombin and α-thrombin-antithrombin complexes, factor XIa, platelet and endothelial markers of activation, signatures of protein C activation and fibrinolysis markers; and (v) assessment of viscoelastic tests and new point-of-care methods.

Patient safety in ambulance services: a scoping review

Background

The role of ambulance services has changed dramatically over the last few decades with the introduction of paramedics able to provide life-saving interventions, thanks to sophisticated equipment and treatments available. The number of 999 calls continues to increase, with adverse events theoretically possible with each one. Most patient safety research is based on hospital data, but little is known concerning patient safety when using ambulance services, when things can be very different. There is an urgent need to characterise the evidence base for patient safety in NHS ambulance services.

Objective

To identify and map available evidence relating to patient safety when using ambulance services.

Design

Mixed-methods design including systematic review and review of ambulance service documentation, with areas for future research prioritised using a Delphi process.

Setting and participants

Ambulance services, their staff and service users in UK.

Data sources

A wide range of data sources were explored. Multiple databases, reference lists from key papers and citations, Google and the NHS Confederation website were searched, and experts contacted to ensure that new data were included in the review. The databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Web of Science, Science Direct, Emerald, Education Resources Information Center (ERIC), Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, Social Services Abstracts, Sociological Abstracts, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS), PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, Health Management Information Consortium (HMIC), NHS Evidence, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED),Health Technology Assessment, the FADE library, Current Awareness Service for Health (CASH), OpenDOAR (Directory of Open Access Repositories) and Open System for Information on Grey Literature in Europe (OpenSIGLE) and Zetoc (The British Library's Electronic Table of Contents) were searched from 1 January 1980 to 12 October 2011. Publicly available documents and issues identified by National Patient Safety Agency (NPSA), NHS Litigation Authority (NHSLA) and coroners’ reports were considered. Opinions and perceptions of senior managers, ambulance staff and service users were solicited.

Review methods

Data were extracted from annual reports using two-stage thematic analysis, data from quality accounts were collated with safety priorities tabulated and considered using thematic analysis, NPSA incident report data were collated and displayed comparatively using descriptive statistics, claims reported to NHSLA were analysed to identify number and cost of claims from mistakes and/or poor service, and summaries of coroners’ reports were assessed using thematic analysis to identify underlying safety issues. The depth of analysis is limited by the remit of a scoping exercise and availability of data.

Results

We identified studies exploring different aspects of safety, which were of variable quality and with little evidence to support activities currently undertaken by ambulance services. Adequately powered studies are required to address issues of patient safety in this service, and it appeared that national priorities were what determined safety activities, rather than patient need. There was inconsistency of information on attitudes and approaches to patient safety, exacerbated by a lack of common terminology.

Conclusion

Patient safety needs to become a more prominent consideration for ambulance services, rather than operational pressures, including targets and driving the service. Development of new models of working must include adequate training and monitoring of clinical risks. Providers and commissioners need a full understanding of the safety implications of introducing new models of care, particularly to a mobile workforce often isolated from colleagues, which requires a body of supportive evidence and an inherent critical evaluation culture. It is difficult to extrapolate findings of clinical studies undertaken in secondary care to ambulance service practice and current national guidelines often rely on consensus opinion regarding applicability to the pre-hospital environment. Areas requiring further work include the safety surrounding discharging patients, patient accidents, equipment and treatment, delays in transfer/admission to hospital, and treatment and diagnosis, with a clear need for increased reliability and training for improving handover to hospital.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Cost effectiveness of total hip arthroplasty in osteoarthritis

Many different designs of total hip arthroplasty (THA) with varying performance and cost are available. The identification of those which are the most cost-effective could allow significant cost-savings. We used an established Markov model to examine the cost effectiveness of five frequently used categories of THA which differed according to bearing surface and mode of fixation, using data from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales. Kaplan–Meier analyses of rates of revision for men and women were modelled with parametric distributions. Costs of devices were provided by the NHS Supply Chain and associated costs were taken from existing studies. Lifetime costs, lifetime quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) and the probability of a device being cost effective at a willingness to pay £20 000/QALY were included in the models.

The differences in QALYs between different categories of implant were extremely small (<  0.0039 QALYs for men or women over the patient’s lifetime) and differences in cost were also marginal (£2500 to £3000 in the same time period). As a result, the probability of any particular device being the most cost effective was very sensitive to small, plausible changes in quality of life estimates and cost.

Our results suggest that available evidence does not support recommending a particular device on cost effectiveness grounds alone. We would recommend that the choice of prosthesis should be determined by the rate of revision, local costs and the preferences of the surgeon and patient.

Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2015;97-B:449–57.

Variation in local trust Do Not Attempt Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (DNACPR) policies: a review of 48 English healthcare trusts

OBJECTIVES

To explore Do Not Attempt Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (DNACPR) policies from English acute, community and ambulance service Trusts for evidence of consistency and variation in implementation of national guidelines between healthcare organisations.

SETTING

Acute, community or ambulance National Health Service (NHS) Trusts in England.

PARTICIPANTS

48 NHS Trusts.

INTERVENTIONS

Freedom of information requests for adult DNACPR policies were sent to a random sample of Trusts.

OUTCOMES

DNACPR policies were assessed on aspects identified from national guidelines including documentation, ethical and legal issues, decision-makers and involvement of others in DNACPR decisions as well as practical considerations such as validity, review and portability of decisions.

RESULTS

Policies from 26 acute, 12 community and 10 ambulance service Trusts were reviewed. There was variation in terminology used (85% described documents as policies, 6% procedures and 8% guidelines). Only one quarter of Trusts used the recommended Resuscitation Council (UK) record form (or a modification of the form). There was variation in the terminology used which included DNAR, DNACPR, Not for CPR and AND (allow natural death). Accountability for DNACPR decisions rested with consultants at all acute Trusts and the most senior clinician at community Trusts. Most Trusts (74%) recommended discussion of decisions with a multidisciplinary team. Compliance with guidance requiring clinical staff to assess the patient for capacity and when to consult a lasting power of attorney or independent mental capacity advocate occurred less commonly. There was wide variation in the duration of time over which a DNACPR decision was considered valid as well as in the Trusts' approach to reviewing DNACPR decisions. The level of portability of DNACPR decisions between healthcare organisations was one of the greatest sources of variation.

CONCLUSIONS

There is significant variation in the translation of the national DNACPR guidelines into English healthcare Trusts' DNACPR policies.

Aspirin for prophylactic use in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer: a systematic review and overview of reviews

BACKGROUND

Prophylactic aspirin has been considered to be beneficial in reducing the risks of heart disease and cancer. However, potential benefits must be balanced against the possible harm from side effects, such as bleeding and gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms. It is particularly important to know the risk of side effects when aspirin is used as primary prevention--that is when used by people as yet free of, but at risk of developing, cardiovascular disease (CVD) or cancer. In this report we aim to identify and re-analyse randomised controlled trials (RCTs), systematic reviews and meta-analyses to summarise the current scientific evidence with a focus on possible harms of prophylactic aspirin in primary prevention of CVD and cancer.

OBJECTIVES

To identify RCTs, systematic reviews and meta-analyses of RCTs of the prophylactic use of aspirin in primary prevention of CVD or cancer. To undertake a quality assessment of identified systematic reviews and meta-analyses using meta-analysis to investigate study-level effects on estimates of benefits and risks of adverse events; cumulative meta-analysis; exploratory multivariable meta-regression; and to quantify relative and absolute risks and benefits.

METHODS

We identified RCTs, meta-analyses and systematic reviews, and searched electronic bibliographic databases (from 2008 September 2012) including MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, and Science Citation Index. We limited searches to publications since 2008, based on timing of the most recent comprehensive systematic reviews.

RESULTS

In total, 2572 potentially relevant papers were identified and 27 met the inclusion criteria. Benefits of aspirin ranged from 6% reduction in relative risk (RR) for all-cause mortality [RR 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88 to 1.00] and 10% reduction in major cardiovascular events (MCEs) (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.96) to a reduction in total coronary heart disease (CHD) of 15% (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.06). Reported pooled odds ratios (ORs) for total cancer mortality ranged between 0.76 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.88) and 0.93 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.03). Inclusion of the Women's Health Study changed the estimated OR to 0.82 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.97). Aspirin reduced reported colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.02). However, including studies in which aspirin was given every other day raised the OR to 0.91 (95% CI 0.74 to 1.11). Reported cancer benefits appeared approximately 5 years from start of treatment. Calculation of absolute effects per 100,000 patient-years of follow-up showed reductions ranging from 33 to 46 deaths (all-cause mortality), 60-84 MCEs and 47-64 incidents of CHD and a possible avoidance of 34 deaths from CRC. Reported increased RRs of adverse events from aspirin use were 37% for GI bleeding (RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.62), between 54% (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.82) and 62% (RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.31 to 2.00) for major bleeds, and between 32% (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.74) and 38% (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.82) for haemorrhagic stroke. Pooled estimates of increased RR for bleeding remained stable across trials conducted over several decades. Estimates of absolute rates of harm from aspirin use, per 100,000 patient-years of follow-up, were 99-178 for non-trivial bleeds, 46-49 for major bleeds, 68-117 for GI bleeds and 8-10 for haemorrhagic stroke. Meta-analyses aimed at judging risk of bleed according to sex and in individuals with diabetes were insufficiently powered for firm conclusions to be drawn.

LIMITATIONS

Searches were date limited to 2008 because of the intense interest that this subject has generated and the cataloguing of all primary research in so many previous systematic reviews. A further limitation was our potential over-reliance on study-level systematic reviews in which the person-years of follow-up were not accurately ascertainable. However, estimates of number of events averted or incurred through aspirin use calculated from data in study-level meta-analyses did not differ substantially from estimates based on individual patient data-level meta-analyses, for which person-years of follow-up were more accurate (although based on less-than-complete assemblies of currently available primary studies).

CONCLUSIONS

We have found that there is a fine balance between benefits and risks from regular aspirin use in primary prevention of CVD. Effects on cancer prevention have a long lead time and are at present reliant on post hoc analyses. All absolute effects are relatively small compared with the burden of these diseases. Several potentially relevant ongoing trials will be completed between 2013 and 2019, which may clarify the extent of benefit of aspirin in reducing cancer incidence and mortality. Future research considerations include expanding the use of IPD meta-analysis of RCTs by pooling data from available studies and investigating the impact of different dose regimens on cardiovascular and cancer outcomes.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Aspirin in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer: a systematic review of the balance of evidence from reviews of randomized trials

Background

Aspirin has been recommended for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer, but overall benefits are unclear. We aimed to use novel methods to re-evaluate the balance of benefits and harms of aspirin using evidence from randomised controlled trials, systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

Methods and Findings

Data sources included ten electronic bibliographic databases, contact with experts, and scrutiny of reference lists of included studies. Searches were undertaken in September 2012 and restricted to publications since 2008. Of 2,572 potentially relevant papers 27 met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of control arms to estimate event rates, modelling of all-cause mortality and L'Abbé plots to estimate heterogeneity were undertaken. Absolute benefits and harms were low: 60-84 major CVD events and 34-36 colorectal cancer deaths per 100,000 person-years were averted, whereas 46-49 major bleeds and 68-117 gastrointestinal bleeds were incurred. Reductions in all-cause mortality were minor and uncertain (Hazard Ratio 0.96; 95% CI: 0.90-1.02 at 20 years, Relative Risk [RR] 0.94, 95% CI: 0.88-1.00 at 8 years); there was a non-significant change in total CVD (RR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.69-1.06) and change in total cancer mortality ranged from 0.76 (95% CI: 0.66-0.88) to 0.93 (95% CI: 0.84-1.03) depending on follow-up time and studies included. Risks were increased by 37% for gastrointestinal bleeds (RR 1.37, 95% CI: 1.15-1.62), 54%-66% for major bleeds (Rate Ratio from IPD analysis 1.54, 95% CI: 1.30-1.82, and RR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.31-2.00), and 32%-38% for haemorrhagic stroke (Rate Ratio from IPD analysis 1.32; 95% CI: 1.00-1.74; RR 1.38; 95% CI: 1.01-1.82).

Conclusions

Findings indicate small absolute effects of aspirin relative to the burden of these diseases. When aspirin is used for primary prevention of CVD the absolute harms exceed the benefits. Estimates of cancer benefit rely on selective retrospective re-analysis of RCTs and more information is needed.