Changes in the number of new takeaway food outlets associated with adoption of management zones around schools: A natural experimental evaluation in England

By the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) across England had adopted takeaway management zones (or "exclusion zones") around schools as a means to curb proliferation of new takeaways. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we evaluated the impact of management zones on takeaway retail, including unintended displacement of takeaways to areas immediately beyond management zones, and impacts on chain fast-food outlets. We used uncontrolled interrupted time series analyses to estimate changes from up to six years pre- and post-adoption of takeaway management zones around schools. We evaluated three outcomes: mean number of new takeaways within management zones (and by three identified sub-types: full management, town centre exempt and time management zones); mean number on the periphery of management zones (i.e. within an additional 100 m of the edge of zones); and presence of new chain fast-food outlets within management zones. For 26 LAs, we observed an overall decrease in the number of new takeaways opening within management zones. Six years post-intervention, we observed 0.83 (95% CI -0.30, -1.03) fewer new outlets opening per LA than would have been expected in absence of the intervention, equivalent to an 81.0% (95% CI -29.1, -100) reduction in the number of new outlets. Cumulatively, 12 (54%) fewer new takeaways opened than would have been expected over the six-year post-intervention period. When stratified by policy type, effects were most prominent for full management zones and town centre exempt zones. Estimates of intervention effects on numbers of new takeaways on the periphery of management zones, and on the presence of new chain fast-food outlets within management zones, did not meet statistical significance. Our findings suggest that management zone policies were able to demonstrably curb the proliferation of new takeaways. Modelling studies are required to measure the possible population health impacts associated with this change.

Changes in the number and outcome of takeaway food outlet planning applications in response to adoption of management zones around schools in England: A time series analysis

Physical exposure to takeaway food outlets ("takeaways") is associated with poor diet and excess weight, which are leading causes of excess morbidity and mortality. At the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) in England had adopted takeaway management zones (or "exclusion zones"), which is an urban planning intervention designed to reduce physical exposure to takeaways around schools. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we used interrupted time series analyses to estimate the impact of this intervention on changes in the total number of takeaway planning applications received by LAs and the percentage rejected, at both first decision and after any appeal, within management zones, per quarter of calendar year. Changes in these proximal process measures would precede downstream retail and health impacts. We observed an overall decrease in the number of applications received by intervention LAs at 12 months post-intervention (6.3 fewer, 95% CI -0.1, -12.5), and an increase in the percentage of applications that were rejected at first (additional 18.8%, 95% CI 3.7, 33.9) and final (additional 19.6%, 95% CI 4.7, 34.6) decision, the latter taking into account any appeal outcomes. This effect size for the number of planning applications was maintained at 24 months, although it was not statistically significant. We also identified three distinct sub-types of management zone regulations (full, town centre exempt, and time management zones). The changes observed in rejections were most prominent for full management zones (where the regulations are applied irrespective of overlap with town centres), where the percentage of applications rejected was increased by an additional 46.1% at 24 months. Our findings suggest that takeaway management zone policies may have the potential to curb the proliferation of new takeaways near schools and subsequently impact on population health.

Population-level interventions for the primary prevention of dementia: a complex evidence review

Dementia risk reduction is a global public health priority. Existing primary prevention approaches have favored individual-level interventions, with a research and policy gap for population-level interventions. We conducted a complex, multi-stage, evidence review to identify empirical evidence on population-level interventions for each of the modifiable risk factors identified by the Lancet Commission on dementia (2020). Through a comprehensive series of targeted searches, we identified 4604 articles, of which 135 met our inclusion criteria. We synthesized evidence from multiple sources, including existing non-communicable disease prevention frameworks, and graded the consistency and comprehensiveness of evidence. We derived a population-level intervention framework for dementia risk reduction, containing 26 high- and moderate-confidence policy recommendations, supported by relevant information on effect sizes, sources of evidence, contextual information, and implementation guidance. This review provides policymakers with the evidence they need, in a useable format, to address this critical public health policy gap.

Funding

SW is funded by a National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Doctoral Fellowship. WW and LF are part funded by the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration East of England. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on health and health inequalities in children and adolescents in England: An interrupted time series analysis and population health modelling study

BACKGROUND

The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) in the United Kingdom has led to a significant reduction in household purchasing of sugar in drinks. In this study, we examined the potential medium- and long-term implications for health and health inequalities among children and adolescents in England.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to measure the effects of the SDIL on the amount of sugar per household per week from soft drinks purchased, 19 months post implementation and by index of multiple deprivation (IMD) quintile in England. We modelled the effect of observed sugar reduction on body mass index (BMI), dental caries, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in children and adolescents (0 to 17 years) by IMD quintile over the first 10 years following announcement (March 2016) and implementation (April 2018) of the SDIL. Using a lifetable model, we simulated the potential long-term impact of these changes on life expectancy for the current birth cohort and, using regression models with results from the IMD-specific lifetable models, we calculated the impact of the SDIL on the slope index of inequality (SII) in life expectancy. The SDIL was found to have reduced sugar from purchased drinks in England by 15 g/household/week (95% confidence interval: -10.3 to -19.7). The model predicts these reductions in sugar will lead to 3,600 (95% uncertainty interval: 946 to 6,330) fewer dental caries and 64,100 (54,400 to 73,400) fewer children and adolescents classified as overweight or obese, in the first 10 years after implementation. The changes in sugar purchasing and predicted impacts on health are largest for children and adolescents in the most deprived areas (Q1: 11,000 QALYs [8,370 to 14,100] and Q2: 7,760 QALYs [5,730 to 9,970]), while children and adolescents in less deprived areas will likely experience much smaller simulated effects (Q3: -1,830 QALYs [-3,260 to -501], Q4: 652 QALYs [-336 to 1,680], Q5: 1,860 QALYs [929 to 2,890]). If the simulated effects of the SDIL are sustained over the life course, it is predicted there will be a small but significant reduction in slope index of inequality: 0.76% (95% uncertainty interval: -0.9 to -0.62) for females and 0.94% (-1.1 to -0.76) for males.

CONCLUSIONS

We predict that the SDIL will lead to medium-term reductions in dental caries and overweight/obesity, and long-term improvements in life expectancy, with the greatest benefits projected for children and adolescents from more deprived areas. This study provides evidence that the SDIL could narrow health inequalities for children and adolescents in England.

Are Population-Level Approaches to Dementia Risk Reduction Under-Researched? A Rapid Review of the Dementia Prevention Literature

Dementia is forecast to become increasingly prevalent, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, and is associated with high human and economic costs. Primary prevention of dementia -preventing risk factors leading to disease development - is an emerging global public health priority. Primary prevention can be achieved in two ways: individual-level or population-level. In this rapid review, we quantify the proportion of contributing interventional evidence to the dementia primary prevention literature that is concerned with either approach. We searched Medline, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, Cochrane, the World Health Organization, and Google to identify systematic reviews that described primary prevention interventions for dementia. We used search terms related to dementia risk reduction, intervention/policy, and review. We analysed reference lists of included dementia prevention reviews to identify contributing primary prevention evidence, and categorised these as either individual-level or population-level. Additionally, we examined search strategies to investigate the likelihood of reviews identifying available population-level interventions. We included twelve of the 527 articles retrieved. Population-level evidence was summarised by only two reviews. In these two reviews, <2.5% of the interventions described where population-level interventions. Most search strategies were weighted towards identifying individual-level evidence. Existing systematic reviews of dementia primary prevention interventions include almost no population-level evidence. Correction of this imbalance is needed to ensure that dementia prevention policies can achieve meaningful reductions in the prevalence of, and inequalities in, dementia.

What is a population-level approach to prevention, and how could we apply it to dementia risk reduction?

The World Health Organisation's 2022 'blueprint for dementia research' highlights the need for more research into population-level risk reduction. However, definitions of population-level prevention vary, and application to dementia is challenging because of its multi-factorial aetiology and a maturing prevention evidence base. This paper compares and contrasts key concepts of 'population-level prevention' from the literature, explores related theoretical models and policy frameworks, and applies this to dementia risk reduction. We reach a proposed definition of population-level risk reduction of dementia, which focusses on the need to change societal conditions such that the population is less likely to develop modifiable risk factors known to be associated with dementia, without the need for high-agency behaviour change by individuals. This definition, alongside identified policy frameworks, can inform synthesis of existing evidence and help to co-ordinate the generation of new evidence.

Estimated impact of the UK soft drinks industry levy on childhood hospital admissions for carious tooth extractions: interrupted time series analysis

Introduction

Tooth extraction due to dental caries is associated with socioeconomic deprivation and is a major reason for elective childhood hospital admissions in England. Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages is a risk factor for dental caries. We examined whether the soft drinks industry levy (SDIL), announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018, was associated with changes in incidence rates of hospital admissions for carious tooth extraction in children, 22 months post-SDIL implementation.

Methods

Changes in incidence rates of monthly National Health Service hospital admissions for extraction of teeth due to a primary diagnosis of dental caries (International Classification of Diseases; ICD-10 code: K02) in England, between January 2012 and February 2020, were estimated using interrupted time series and compared with a counterfactual scenario where SDIL was not announced or implemented. Periodical changes in admissions, autocorrelation and population structure were accounted for. Estimates were calculated overall, by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) fifths and by age group (0-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, 15-18 years).

Results

Compared with the counterfactual scenario, there was a relative reduction of 12.1% (95% CI 17.0% to 7.2%) in hospital admissions for carious tooth extractions in all children (0-18 years). Children aged 0-4 years and 5-9 years had relative reductions of 28.6% (95% CI 35.6% to 21.5%) and 5.5% (95% CI 10.5% to 0.5%), respectively; no change was observed for older children. Reductions were observed in children living in most IMD areas regardless of deprivation.

Conclusion

The UK SDIL was associated with reductions in incidence rates of childhood hospital admissions for carious tooth extractions, across most areas regardless of deprivation status and especially in younger children.

Trial registration number

ISRCTN18042742.

COVID-19 surge testing in a unitary local authority in England: an observational study

BACKGROUND

In May 2021, due to rising case rates and the detection of a new variant of concern, increased asymptomatic 'surge testing' for COVID-19 was implemented in Bedford Borough.

METHODS

Over 3 weeks, surge testing in higher incidence areas utilized: (i) mobile testing units, (ii) home test kit collection and drop-off and (iii) Door-to-door outreach. Testing was voluntary and supported by a communication campaign. Test results and data provided by participants were analyzed.

RESULTS

During surge testing, 16% (n = 5018) of the target population were tested, resulting in 125 positive results (2.5%). Females, those identifying as white, and those living in the most deprived quintile (Q1) were over-represented in testing. Test positivity was relatively higher for ages 0-19 (4.0%), for minority ethnic groups (2.8%), and those not listing an ethnic group (15.1%). Test positivity was lowest for the door-to-door outreach approach (0.9%), despite collecting the most samples (2225).

CONCLUSIONS

Surge testing in Bedford reached a large number of people, was particularly successful at reaching people living in the most deprived areas, and identified cases that might have otherwise been missed. However, the testing did not reach the majority of the population, and began after new infections had begun to fall.

Population-level interventions for the primary prevention of dementia: a complex evidence review

BACKGROUND

Dementia is a leading, global public health challenge. Recent evidence supporting a decrease in age-specific incidence of dementia in high-income countries (HICs) suggests that risk reduction is possible through improved life-course public health. Despite this, efforts to date have been heavily focused on individual-level approaches, which are unlikely to significantly reduce dementia prevalence or inequalities in dementia. In order to inform policy, we identified the population-level interventions for dementia risk reduction with the strongest evidence base.

METHODS

We did this complex, multistage, evidence review to summarise the empirical, interventional evidence for population-level interventions to reduce or control each of the 12 modifiable life-course risk factors for dementia identified by the Lancet commission. We conducted a series of structured searches of peer-reviewed and grey literature databases (eg, Medline, Trip database, Cochrane library, Campbell Collaboration, the WHO, and Google Scholar), in January, March, and June, 2023. Search terms related to risk factors, prevention, and population-level interventions, without language restrictions. We extracted evidence of effectiveness and key contextual information to aid consideration and implementation of interventions by policymakers. We performed a narrative synthesis and evidence grading, and we derived a population-level dementia risk reduction intervention framework, structured by intervention type. This study is registered with PROSPERO, ID:CRD42023396193.

FINDINGS

We identified clear and consistent evidence for the effectiveness of 26 population-level interventions to reduce the prevalence of nine of the risk factors, of which 23 have been empirically evaluated in HICs, and 16 in low-income and middle-income countries. We identified interventions that acted through fiscal levers (n=5; eg, removing primary school fees), marketing or advertising levers (n=5; eg, plain packaging of tobacco products), availability levers (n=8; eg, cleaner fuel replacement programmes for cooking stoves), and legislative levers (n=8; eg, mandated provision of hearing protective equipment at noisy workplaces). We were not able to recommend any interventions for diabetes (other than indirectly through action on obesity and physical inactivity), depression, or social isolation.

INTERPRETATION

This complex evidence review provides policymakers and public health professionals with an evidence-based framework to help develop and implement population-level approaches for dementia risk reduction that could significantly reduce the population's risk of dementia and reduce health inequalities.

FUNDING

None.

Reactions of industry and associated organisations to the announcement of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy: longitudinal thematic analysis of UK media articles, 2016-18

BACKGROUND

The UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) was announced in March 2016, became law in April 2017, and was implemented in April 2018. Empirical analyses of commercial responses have not been undertaken to establish the scale, direction or nuance of industry media messaging around fiscal policies. We aimed to develop a detailed understanding of industry reactions to the SDIL in publicly available media, including whether and how these changed from announcement to implementation.

METHODS

We searched Factiva to identify articles related to sugar, soft-drinks, and the SDIL, between 16th March 2016-5^th April 2018. Articles included were UK publications written in English and reporting a quotation from an industry actor in response to the SDIL. We used a longitudinal thematic analysis of public statements by the soft-drinks industry that covered their reactions in relation to key policy milestones.

RESULTS

Two hundred and ninety-eight articles were included. After the announcement in March 2016, there was strong opposition to the SDIL. After the public consultation, evolving opposition narratives were seen. After the SDIL became law, reactions reflected a shift to adapting to the SDIL. Following the publication of the final regulations, statements sought to emphasise industry opportunities and ensure the perceived profitability of the soft drinks sector. The most significant change in message (from opposition to adapting to the SDIL) occurred when the SDIL was implemented (6^th April 2018).

CONCLUSION

Reactions to the SDIL changed over time. Industry modified its media responses from a position of strong opposition to one that appeared to focus on adaptation and maximising perceived profitability after the SDIL became law. This shift suggests that the forces that shape industry media responses to fiscal policies do not remain constant but evolve in response to policy characteristics and the stage of the policy process to maximise beneficial framing.

Associations between trajectories of obesity prevalence in English primary school children and the UK soft drinks industry levy: An interrupted time series analysis of surveillance data

BACKGROUND

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are the primary source of dietary added sugars in children, with high consumption commonly observed in more deprived areas where obesity prevalence is also highest. Associations between SSB consumption and obesity in children have been widely reported. In March 2016, a two-tier soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) on drinks manufacturers to encourage reformulation of SSBs in the United Kingdom was announced and then implemented in April 2018. We examined trajectories in the prevalence of obesity at ages 4 to 5 years and 10 to 11 years, 19 months after the implementation of SDIL, overall and by sex and deprivation.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Data were from the National Child Measurement Programme and included annual repeat cross-sectional measurement of over 1 million children in reception (4 to 5 years old) and year 6 (10 to 11 years old) in state-maintained English primary schools. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of monthly obesity prevalence data from September 2013 to November 2019 was used to estimate absolute and relative changes in obesity prevalence compared to a counterfactual (adjusted for temporal variations in obesity prevalence) estimated from the trend prior to SDIL announcement. Differences between observed and counterfactual estimates were examined in November 2019 by age (reception or year 6) and additionally by sex and deprivation quintile. In year 6 girls, there was an overall absolute reduction in obesity prevalence (defined as >95th centile on the UK90 growth charts) of 1.6 percentage points (PPs) (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 2.1), with greatest reductions in the two most deprived quintiles (e.g., there was an absolute reduction of 2.4 PP (95% CI: 1.6, 3.2) in prevalence of obesity in the most deprived quintile). In year 6 boys, there was no change in obesity prevalence, except in the least deprived quintile where there was a 1.6-PP (95% CI: 0.7, 2.5) absolute increase. In reception children, relative to the counterfactual, there were no overall changes in obesity prevalence in boys (0.5 PP (95% CI: 1.0, -0.1)) or girls (0.2 PP (95% CI: 0.8, -0.3)). This study is limited by use of index of multiple deprivation of the school attended to assess individual socioeconomic disadvantage. ITS analyses are vulnerable to unidentified cointerventions and time-varying confounding, neither of which we can rule out.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the SDIL was associated with decreased prevalence of obesity in year 6 girls, with the greatest differences in those living in the most deprived areas. Additional strategies beyond SSB taxation will be needed to reduce obesity prevalence overall, and particularly in older boys and younger children.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN18042742.

Changes in household food and drink purchases following restrictions on the advertisement of high fat, salt, and sugar products across the Transport for London network: A controlled interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Restricting the advertisement of products with high fat, salt, and sugar (HFSS) content has been recommended as a policy tool to improve diet and tackle obesity, but the impact on HFSS purchasing is unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of HFSS advertising restrictions, implemented across the London (UK) transport network in February 2019, on HFSS purchases.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Over 5 million take-home food and drink purchases were recorded by 1,970 households (London [intervention], n = 977; North of England [control], n = 993) randomly selected from the Kantar Fast Moving Consumer Goods panel. The intervention and control samples were similar in household characteristics but had small differences in main food shopper sex, socioeconomic position, and body mass index. Using a controlled interrupted time series design, we estimated average weekly household purchases of energy and nutrients from HFSS products in the post-intervention period (44 weeks) compared to a counterfactual constructed from the control and pre-intervention (36 weeks) series. Energy purchased from HFSS products was 6.7% (1,001.0 kcal, 95% CI 456.0 to 1,546.0) lower among intervention households compared to the counterfactual. Relative reductions in purchases of fat (57.9 g, 95% CI 22.1 to 93.7), saturated fat (26.4 g, 95% CI 12.4 to 40.4), and sugar (80.7 g, 95% CI 41.4 to 120.1) from HFSS products were also observed. Energy from chocolate and confectionery purchases was 19.4% (317.9 kcal, 95% CI 200.0 to 435.8) lower among intervention households than for the counterfactual, with corresponding relative reductions in fat (13.1 g, 95% CI 7.5 to 18.8), saturated fat (8.7 g, 95% CI 5.7 to 11.7), sugar (41.4 g, 95% CI 27.4 to 55.4), and salt (0.2 g, 95% CI 0.1 to 0.2) purchased from chocolate and confectionery. Relative reductions are in the context of secular increases in HFSS purchases in both the intervention and control areas, so the policy was associated with attenuated growth of HFSS purchases rather than absolute reduction in HFSS purchases. Study limitations include the lack of out-of-home purchases in our analyses and not being able to assess the sustainability of observed changes beyond 44 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

This study finds an association between the implementation of restrictions on outdoor HFSS advertising and relative reductions in energy, sugar, and fat purchased from HFSS products. These findings provide support for policies that restrict HFSS advertising as a tool to reduce purchases of HFSS products.

Restricting the advertising of high fat, salt and sugar foods on the Transport for London estate: Process and implementation study

INTRODUCTION

One in five UK children aged 10-11 years live with obesity. They are more likely to continue living with obesity into adulthood and to develop obesity-related chronic health conditions at a younger age. Regulating the marketing of high fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) foods and beverages has been highlighted as a promising approach to obesity prevention. In 2019, Transport for London implemented restrictions on the advertisement of HFSS products across its network. This paper reports on a process evaluation of the design and implementation of this intervention.

METHODS

In 2019-2020, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 23 stakeholders. Interviews with those responsible for implementation (n = 13) explored stakeholder roles, barriers and facilitators to policy development/implementation and unintended consequences. Interviews with food industry stakeholders (n = 10) explored perceptions and acceptability of the policy, changes to business practice and impact on business. Data were analysed using a general inductive approach.

RESULTS

Practical challenges included limited time between policy announcement and implementation, translating the concept of 'junk food' into operational policy, the legal landscape, and reported uneven impacts across industry stakeholders. Political challenges included designing a policy the public views as appropriate, balancing health and financial impacts, and the perceived influence of political motivations. Consultation during policy development and close communication with industry reportedly facilitated implementation, as did the development of an exceptions process that provided a review pathway for HFSS products that might not contribute to children's HFSS consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that restricting the outdoor advertisement of HFSS foods and beverages at scale is feasible within a complex policy and business landscape. We outline practical steps that may further facilitate the development and implementation of similar policies and we report on the importance of ensuring such policies are applied in a way that is perceived as reasonable by industry and the public.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children and young people in households and schools: a meta-analysis of population-based and contact-tracing studies

Background The role of children and young people (CYP) in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in household and educational settings remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of contact-tracing and population-based studies at low risk of bias. Methods We searched 4 electronic databases on 28 July 2021 for contact-tracing studies and population-based studies informative about transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from 0-19 year olds in household or educational settings. We excluded studies at high risk of bias, including from under-ascertainment of asymptomatic infections. We undertook multilevel random effects meta-analyses of secondary attack rates (SAR: contact-tracing studies) and school infection prevalence, and used meta-regression to examine the impact of community SARS-CoV-2 incidence on school infection prevalence. Findings 4529 abstracts were reviewed, resulting in 37 included studies (16 contact-tracing; 19 population studies; 2 mixed studies). The pooled relative transmissibility of CYP compared with adults was 0.92 (0.68, 1.26) in adjusted household studies. The pooled SAR from CYP was lower (p=0.002) in school studies 0.7% (0.2, 2.7) than household studies (7.6% (3.6, 15.9) . There was no difference in SAR from CYP to child or adult contacts. School population studies showed some evidence of clustering in classes within schools. School infection prevalence was associated with contemporary community 14-day incidence (OR 1.003 (1.001, 1.004), p<0.001). Interpretation We found no difference in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from CYP compared with adults within household settings. SAR were markedly lower in school compared with household settings, suggesting that household transmission is more important than school transmission in this pandemic. School infection prevalence was associated with community infection incidence, supporting hypotheses that school infections broadly reflect community infections. These findings are important for guiding policy decisions on shielding, vaccination school and operations during the pandemic.

Media representations of opposition to the 'junk food advertising ban' on the Transport for London (TfL) network: A thematic content analysis of UK news and trade press

BACKGROUND

Advertising of less healthy foods and drinks is hypothesised to be associated with obesity in adults and children. In February 2019, Transport for London implemented restrictions on advertisements for foods and beverages high in fat, salt or sugar across its network as part of a city-wide strategy to tackle childhood obesity. The policy was extensively debated in the press. This paper identifies arguments for and against the restrictions. Focusing on arguments against the restrictions, it then goes on to deconstruct the discursive strategies underpinning them.

METHODS

A qualitative thematic content analysis of media coverage of the restrictions (the 'ban') in UK newspapers and trade press was followed by a document analysis of arguments against the ban. A search period of March 1, 2018 to May 31, 2019 covered: (i) the launch of the public consultation on the ban in May 2018; (ii) the announcement of the ban in November 2018; and (iii) its implementation in February 2019. A systematic search of printed and online publications in English distributed in the UK or published on UK-specific websites identified 152 articles.

RESULTS

Arguments in favour of the ban focused on inequalities and childhood obesity. Arguments against the ban centred on two claims: that childhood obesity was not the 'right' priority; and that an advertising ban was not an effective way to address childhood obesity. These claims were justified via three discursive approaches: (i) claiming more 'important' priorities for action; (ii) disputing the science behind the ban; (iii) emphasising potential financial costs of the ban.

CONCLUSION

The discursive tactics used in media sources to argue against the ban draw on frames widely used by unhealthy commodities industries in response to structural public health interventions. Our analyses highlight the need for interventions to be framed in ways that can pre-emptively counter common criticisms.

Sociodemographic differences in self-reported exposure to high fat, salt and sugar food and drink advertising: a cross-sectional analysis of 2019 UK panel data

OBJECTIVES

To explore sociodemographic differences in exposure to advertising for foods and drinks high in fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) and whether exposure is associated with body mass index (BMI).

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

UK.

PARTICIPANTS

1552 adults recruited to the Kantar Fast Moving Consumer Goods panel for London and the North of England.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Self-reported advertising exposure stratified by product/service advertised (processed HFSS foods; sugary drinks; sugary cereals; sweet snacks; fast food or digital food delivery services) and advertising setting (traditional; digital; recreational; functional or transport); BMI and sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Overall, 84.7% of participants reported exposure to HFSS advertising in the past 7 days. Participants in the middle (vs high) socioeconomic group had higher odds of overall self-reported exposure (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.06 to 2.07). Participants in the low (vs high) socioeconomic group had higher odds of reporting exposure to advertising for three of five product categories (ORs ranging from 1.41 to 1.67), advertising for digital food delivery services (OR 1.47; 95% CI 1.05 to 2.05), traditional advertising (OR 1.44; 95% CI 1.00 to 2.08) and digital advertising (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.06 to 2.14). Younger adults (18-34 years vs ≥65 years) had higher odds of reporting exposure to advertising for digital food delivery services (OR 2.08; 95% CI 1.20 to 3.59), digital advertising (OR 3.93; 95% CI 2.18 to 7.08) and advertising across transport networks (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.11 to 3.48). Exposure to advertising for digital food delivery services (OR 1.40; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.88), digital advertising (OR 1.80; 95% CI 1.33 to 2.44) and advertising in recreational environments (OR 1.46; 95% CI 1.02 to 2.09) was associated with increased odds of obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to less healthy product advertising was prevalent, with adults in lower socioeconomic groups and younger adults more likely to report exposure. Broader restrictions may be needed to reduce sociodemographic differences in exposure to less healthy product advertising.

Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: controlled interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine changes in household purchases of drinks and confectionery one year after implementation of the UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL).

DESIGN

Controlled interrupted time series analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

Members of a panel of households reporting their purchasing on a weekly basis to a market research company (average weekly number of participants n=22 183), March 2014 to March 2019.

INTERVENTION

A two tiered tax levied on manufacturers of soft drinks, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g sugar/100 mL (high tier) are taxed at £0.24/L and drinks with ≥5 to <8 g sugar/100 mL (low tier) are taxed at £0.18/L. Drinks with <5 g sugar/100 mL (no levy) are not taxed.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Absolute and relative differences in the volume of, and amount of sugar in, soft drinks categories, all soft drinks combined, alcohol, and confectionery purchased per household per week one year after implementation of the SDIL compared with trends before the announcement of the SDIL.

RESULTS

In March 2019, compared with the counterfactual estimated from pre-announcement trends, purchased volume of drinks in the high levy tier decreased by 155 mL (95% confidence interval 240.5 to 69.5 mL) per household per week, equivalent to 44.3% (95% confidence interval 59.9% to 28.7%), and sugar purchased in these drinks decreased by 18.0 g (95% confidence interval 32.3 to 3.6 g), or 45.9% (68.8% to 22.9%). Purchases of low tier drinks decreased by 177.3 mL (225.3 to 129.3 mL) per household per week, or 85.9% (95.1% to 76.7%), with a 12.5 g (15.4 to 9.5 g) reduction in sugar in these drinks, equivalent to 86.2% (94.2% to 78.1%). Despite no overall change in volume of no levy drinks purchased, there was an increase in sugar purchased of 15.3 g (12.6 to 17.9 g) per household per week, equivalent to 166.4% (94.2% to 238.5%). When all soft drinks were combined, the volume of drinks purchased did not change, but sugar decreased by 29.5 g (55.8 to 3.1 g), or 9.8% (17.9% to 1.8%). Purchases of confectionery and alcoholic drinks did not change.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with trends before the SDIL was announced, one year after implementation, the volume of soft drinks purchased did not change. The amount of sugar in those drinks was 30 g, or 10%, lower per household per week-equivalent to one 250 mL serving of a low tier drink per person per week. The SDIL might benefit public health without harming industry.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN18042742.

Anticipatory changes in British household purchases of soft drinks associated with the announcement of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy: A controlled interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is positively associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The World Health Organization recommends that member states implement effective taxes on SSBs to reduce consumption. The United Kingdom Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL) is a two-tiered tax, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g of sugar per 100 ml (higher levy tier) are taxed at £0.24 per litre, drinks with ≥5 to <8 g of sugar per 100 ml (lower levy tier) are taxed at £0.18 per litre, and drinks with <5 g sugar per 100 ml (no levy) are not taxed. Milk-based drinks, pure fruit juices, drinks sold as powder, and drinks with >1.2% alcohol by volume are exempt. We aimed to determine if the announcement of the SDIL was associated with anticipatory changes in purchases of soft drinks prior to implementation of the SDIL in April 2018. We explored differences in the volume of and amount of sugar in household purchases of drinks in each levy tier at 2 years post announcement.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used controlled interrupted time series to compare observed changes associated with the announcement of the SDIL to the counterfactual scenario of no announcement. We used data from Kantar Worldpanel, a commercial household purchasing panel with approximately 30,000 British members that includes linked nutritional data on purchases. We conducted separate analyses for drinks liable for the SDIL in the higher, lower, and no-levy tiers controlling with household purchase volumes of toiletries. At 2 years post announcement, there was no difference in volume of or sugar from purchases of higher-levy-tier drinks compared to the counterfactual of no announcement. In contrast, a reversal of the existing upward trend in volume (ml) of and amount of sugar (g) in purchases of lower-levy-tier drinks was seen. These changes led to a -96.1 ml (95% confidence interval [CI] -144.2 to -48.0) reduction in volume and -6.4 g (95% CI -9.8 to -3.1) reduction in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was a reversal of the existing downward trend in the amount of sugar in household purchases of the no-levy drinks but no change in volume purchased. At 2 years post announcement, these changes led to a 6.1 g (95% CI 3.9-8.2) increase in sugar purchased in these drinks per household per week. There was no evidence that volume of or amount of sugar in purchases of all drinks combined was different from the counterfactual. This is an observational study, and changes other than the SDIL may have been responsible for the results reported. Purchases consumed outside of the home were not accounted for.

CONCLUSIONS

The announcement of the UK SDIL was associated with reductions in volume and sugar purchased in lower-levy-tier drinks before implementation. These were offset by increases in sugar purchased from no-levy drinks. These findings may reflect reformulation of drinks from the lower levy to no-levy tier with removal of some but not all sugar, alongside changes in consumer attitudes and beliefs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN18042742.

School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2-4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.

School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2-4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.

Using alternatives to the car and risk of all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the associations between using alternatives to the car which are more active for commuting and non-commuting purposes, and morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective study using data from 3 58 799 participants, aged 37-73 years, from UK Biobank. Commute and non-commute travel were assessed at baseline in 2006-2010. We classified participants according to whether they relied exclusively on the car or used alternative modes of transport that were more active at least some of the time. The main outcome measures were incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer, and CVD, cancer and all-cause mortality. We excluded events in the first 2 years and conducted analyses separately for those who regularly commuted and those who did not.

RESULTS

In maximally adjusted models, regular commuters with more active patterns of travel on the commute had a lower risk of incident (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.00) and fatal (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.95) CVD. Those regular commuters who also had more active patterns of non-commute travel had an even lower risk of fatal CVD (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.85). Among those who were not regular commuters, more active patterns of travel were associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

More active patterns of travel were associated with a reduced risk of incident and fatal CVD and all-cause mortality in adults. This is an important message for clinicians advising people about how to be physically active and reduce their risk of disease.

Public responses to proposals for a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages: A thematic analysis of online reader comments posted on major UK news websites

Background

Regular consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with weight gain, type 2 diabetes, and dental caries. The UK will introduce a levy on the manufacturers of SSBs in 2018. Details will be negotiated over the next two years. How the UK public views SSB taxes is likely to be an important determinant of the content and success of the final policy. We aimed to capture the views, ideas and concerns of commenters on major UK news websites on SSB taxes.

Methods and findings

We conducted a qualitative analysis of reader comments to online news coverage of one proposal for an SSB tax in the UK. 1645 comments on four articles were included. Three underpinning themes influenced support or opposition to the tax: the balance between individual responsibility and autonomy, and population need; mistrust of the intention of the proposed tax and those promoting it; and variations in the perceived complexity of unhealthy diets and obesity associated with variations in what are considered appropriate interventions. Arguments under each theme were used to justify both support and opposition in different cases.

Conclusions

As the final form of the UK SSB tax is negotiated, effort should be made to address the concerns we identified. Our results suggest these efforts could usefully focus on emphasising the social and environmental determinants of diet and obesity, reinforcing the benefits of the tax to the NHS, and pitching the tax as playing into a variety of different conceptualisations of obesity.

Comparative effectiveness of transitional care services in patients discharged from the hospital with heart failure: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

AIMS

To compare the effectiveness of transitional care services in decreasing all-cause death and all-cause readmissions following hospitalization for heart failure (HF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We searched PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and Cochrane Clinical Trials Register for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in 2000-2015 that tested the efficacy of transitional care services in patients hospitalized for HF, provided ≥1 month of follow-up, and reported all-cause mortality or all-cause readmissions. Our network meta-analysis included 53 RCTs (12 356 patients). Among services that significantly decreased all-cause mortality compared with usual care, nurse home visits were most effective [ranking P-score 0.6794; relative risk (RR) 0.78, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.62-0.98], followed by disease management clinics (DMCs) (ranking P-score 0.6368; RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.67-0.97). Among services that significantly decreased all-cause readmission, nurse home visits were most effective [ranking P-score 0.8365; incident rate ratio (IRR) 0.65, 95% CI 0.49-0.86], followed by nurse case management (NCM) (ranking P-score 0.6168; IRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.63-0.95), and DMCs (ranking P-score 0.5691; IRR 0.80, 95% CI 0.66-0.97). There was no significant difference in the comparative effectiveness of services that improved each outcome. Nurse home visits had the greatest pooled cost-savings (3810 USD, 95% CI 3682-3937), followed by NCM (3435 USD, 95% CI 3224-3645), and DMCs (245 USD, 95% CI -70 to 559). Telephone, telemonitoring, pharmacist, and education interventions did not significantly improve clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Nurse home visits and DMCs decrease all-cause mortality after hospitalization for HF. Along with NCM, they also reduce all-cause readmissions, with no significant difference in comparative effectiveness. These services reduce healthcare system costs to varying degrees.

Correction: Why Are Some Population Interventions for Diet and Obesity More Equitable and Effective Than Others? The Role of Individual Agency

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001990.].

Why Are Some Population Interventions for Diet and Obesity More Equitable and Effective Than Others? The Role of Individual Agency

Jean Adams and colleagues argue that population interventions that require individuals to use a low level of agency to benefit are likely to be most effective and most equitable.

Access to the NHS by telephone and Internet during an influenza pandemic: an observational study

OBJECTIVES

To examine use of a novel telephone and Internet service-the National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS)-by the population of England during the 2009-2010 influenza pandemic.

SETTING

National telephone and Internet-based service.

PARTICIPANTS

Service available to population of England (n=51.8 million).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary: service use rate, by week. Numbers and age-specific and sex-specific rates of population who: accessed service; were authorised to collect antiviral medication; collected antiviral medication; were advised to seek further face-to-face assessment. Secondary: daily mean contacts by hour; proportion using service by telephone/Internet.

RESULTS

The NPFS was activated on 23 July 2009, operated for 204 days and assessed 2.7 million patients (5200 consultations/100 000 population). This was six times the number of people who consulted their general practitioner with influenza-like illness during the same period (823 consultations/100 000 population, rate ratio (RR)=6.30, 95% CI 6.28 to 6.32). Women used the service more than men (52.6 vs 43.4 assessments/1000 population, RR1 21, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.22). Among adults, use of the service declined with age (16-29 years: 74.4 vs 65 years+: 9.9 assessments/1000 population (RR 7.46 95% CI 7.41 to 7.52). Almost three-quarters of those assessed met the criteria to receive antiviral medication (1 807 866/2 488 510; 72.6%). Most of the people subsequently collected this medication, although more than one-third did not (n=646 709; 35.8%). Just over one-third of those assessed were advised to seek further face-to-face assessment with a practitioner (951 332/2 488 504; 38.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

This innovative healthcare service operated at large scale and achieved its aim of relieving considerable pressure from mainstream health services, while providing appropriate initial assessment and management for patients. This offers proof-of-concept for such a service that, with further refinement, England can use in future pandemics. Other countries may wish to adopt a similar system as part of their pandemic emergency planning.

Could targeted food taxes improve health?

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effects on nutrition, health and expenditure of extending value added tax (VAT) to a wider range of foods in the UK.

METHOD

A model based on consumption data and elasticity values was constructed to predict the effects of extending VAT to certain categories of food. The resulting changes in demand, expenditure, nutrition and health were estimated. Three different tax regimens were examined: (1) taxing the principal sources of dietary saturated fat; (2) taxing foods defined as unhealthy by the SSCg3d nutrient scoring system; and (3) taxing foods in order to obtain the best health outcome.

DATA

Consumption patterns and elasticity data were taken from the National Food Survey of Great Britain. The health effects of changing salt and fat intake were from previous meta-analyses.

RESULTS

(1) Taxing only the principal sources of dietary saturated fat is unlikely to reduce the incidence of cardiovascular disease because the reduction in saturated fat is offset by a rise in salt consumption. (2) Taxing unhealthy foods, defined by SSCg3d score, might avert around 2,300 deaths per annum, primarily by reducing salt intake. (3) Taxing a wider range of foods could avert up to 3,200 cardiovascular deaths in the UK per annum (a 1.7% reduction).

CONCLUSIONS

Taxing foodstuffs can have unpredictable health effects if cross-elasticities of demand are ignored. A carefully targeted fat tax could produce modest but meaningful changes in food consumption and a reduction in cardiovascular disease.

Should doctors talk to relatives without a competent patient's consent?

A view from a student: ethical teaching, based on ethical guidelines, is at odds with clinical practice. Is this poor practice, or is the ethical guidance too simple?