Analysis of time-to-positivity data in tuberculosis treatment studies: Identifying a new limit of quantification

The BACTEC Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) machine is the standard globally for detecting viable mycobacteria in patients' sputum. Samples are observed for no longer than 42 days, at which point the sample is declared "negative" for tuberculosis (TB). This time to detection of bacterial growth, referred to as time-to-positivity (TTP), is increasingly of interest not solely as a diagnostic tool, but as a continuous biomarker wherein change in TTP over time can be used for comparing the bactericidal activity of different TB treatments. However, as a continuous measure, there are oddities in the distribution of TTP values observed, particularly at higher values. We explored whether there is evidence to suggest setting an upper limit of quantification (ULOQ M ) lower than the diagnostic limit of detection (LOD) using data from several TB-PACTS randomized clinical trials and PanACEA MAMS-TB. Across all trials, less than 7.1% of all weekly samples returned TTP measurements between 25 and 42 days. Further, the relative absolute prediction error (%) was highest in this range. When modeling with ULOQ M s of 25 and 30 days, the precision in estimation improved for 23 of 25 regimen-level slopes as compared to models using the diagnostic LOD while also improving the discrimination between regimens based on Bayesian posteriors. While TTP measurements between 25 days and the diagnostic LOD may be important for diagnostic purposes, TTP values in this range may not contribute meaningfully to its use as a quantitative measure, particularly when assessing treatment response, and may lead to under-powered clinical trials.

Highlights

The BACTEC Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) machine is the STAND, PaMZard globally for the detection and diagnosis of tuberculosis.As MGIT machine use becomes more ubiquitous, its time-to-positivity (TTP) measures are increasingly of interest as a continuous biomarker for evaluating bactericidal activity of TB treatment regimens.Using data from seven previously published trials, this work highlights the evidence for setting a limit of quantification for quantitative analyses that is below the diagnostic limit of detection. TTP values near the upper limit of detection appear to be noisier and sparser, with precision improving for estimation of 23 of 25 regimen-specific rates of change in TTP when analyzed with a lower limit of quantification.While TTP measurements between 25 days and the diagnostic LOD may be important for diagnostic purposes, TTP values in this range may not contribute meaningfully to its use as a quantitative measure, particularly when assessing early treatment response.

Estimands for clinical endpoints in tuberculosis treatment randomized controlled trials: a retrospective application in a completed trial

BACKGROUND

Randomized trials for the treatment of tuberculosis (TB) rely on a composite primary outcome to capture unfavorable treatment responses. However, variability between trials in the outcome definition and estimation methods complicates across-trial comparisons and hinders the advancement of treatment guidelines. The International Council for Harmonization (ICH) provides international regulatory standards for clinical trials. The estimand framework outlined in the recent ICH E9(R1) addendum offers a timely opportunity for randomized trials of TB treatment to adopt broadly standardized outcome definitions and analytic approaches. We previously proposed and defined four estimands for use in this context. Our objective was to evaluate how the use of these estimands and choice of estimation method impacts results and interpretation of a large phase III TB trial.

METHODS

We reanalyzed participant-level data from the REMoxTB trial. We applied four estimands and various methods of estimation to assess non-inferiority of both novel 4-month treatment regimens against standard of care.

RESULTS

With each of the four estimands, we reached the same conclusion as the original trial analysis that the novel regimens were not non-inferior to standard of care. Each estimand and method of estimation gave similar estimates of the treatment effect with fluctuations in variance and differences driven by the methods applied for handling intercurrent events.

CONCLUSIONS

Our application of estimands defined by the ICH E9 (R1) addendum offers a formalized framework for addressing the primary TB treatment trial objective and can promote uniformity in future trials by limiting heterogeneity in trial outcome definitions. We demonstrated the utility of our proposal using data from the REMoxTB randomized trial. We outlined methods for estimating each estimand and found consistent conclusions across estimands. We recommend future late-phase TB treatment trials to implement some or all of our estimands to promote rigorous outcome definitions and reduce variability between trials.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00864383. Registered on March 2009.

A flexible multi-metric Bayesian framework for decision-making in Phase II multi-arm multi-stage studies

We propose a multi-metric flexible Bayesian framework to support efficient interim decision-making in multi-arm multi-stage phase II clinical trials. Multi-arm multi-stage phase II studies increase the efficiency of drug development, but early decisions regarding the futility or desirability of a given arm carry considerable risk since sample sizes are often low and follow-up periods may be short. Further, since intermediate outcomes based on biomarkers of treatment response are rarely perfect surrogates for the primary outcome and different trial stakeholders may have different levels of risk tolerance, a single hypothesis test is insufficient for comprehensively summarizing the state of the collected evidence. We present a Bayesian framework comprised of multiple metrics based on point estimates, uncertainty, and evidence towards desired thresholds (a Target Product Profile) for (1) ranking of arms and (2) comparison of each arm against an internal control. Using a large public-private partnership targeting novel TB arms as a motivating example, we find via simulation study that our multi-metric framework provides sufficient confidence for decision-making with sample sizes as low as 30 patients per arm, even when intermediate outcomes have only moderate correlation with the primary outcome. Our reframing of trial design and the decision-making procedure has been well-received by research partners and is a practical approach to more efficient assessment of novel therapeutics.

Evaluation of the Xpert MTB Host Response assay for the triage of patients with presumed pulmonary tuberculosis: a prospective diagnostic accuracy study in Viet Nam, India, the Philippines, Uganda, and South Africa

BACKGROUND

Non-sputum-based triage tests for tuberculosis are a priority for ending tuberculosis. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the late-prototype Xpert MTB Host Response (Xpert HR) blood-based assay.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective diagnostic accuracy study among outpatients with presumed tuberculosis in outpatient clinics in Viet Nam, India, the Philippines, Uganda, and South Africa. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or older and reported cough lasting at least 2 weeks. We excluded those receiving tuberculosis treatment in the preceding 12 months and those who were unwilling to consent. Xpert HR was performed on capillary or venous blood. Reference standard testing included sputum Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra and mycobacterial culture. We performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify the optimal cutoff value for the Xpert HR to achieve the target sensitivity of 90% or more while maximising specificity, then calculated diagnostic accuracy using this cutoff value. This study was prospectively registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04923958.

FINDINGS

Between July 13, 2021, and Aug 15, 2022, 2046 adults with at least 2 weeks of cough were identified, of whom 1499 adults (686 [45·8%] females and 813 [54·2%] males) had valid Xpert HR and reference standard results. 329 (21·9%) had microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis. Xpert HR had an area under the ROC curve of 0·89 (95% CI 0·86-0·91). The optimal cutoff value was less than or equal to -1·25, giving a sensitivity of 90·3% (95% CI 86·5-93·3; 297 of 329) and a specificity of 62·6% (95% CI 59·7-65·3; 732 of 1170). Sensitivity was similar across countries, by sex, and by subgroups, although specificity was lower in people living with HIV (45·1%, 95% CI 37·8-52·6) than in those not living with HIV (65·9%, 62·8-68·8; difference of 20·8%, 95% CI 13·0-28·6; p<0·0001). Xpert HR had high negative predictive value (95·8%, 95% CI 94·1-97·1), but positive predictive value was only 40·1% (95% CI 36·8-44·1). Using the Xpert HR as a triage test would have reduced confirmatory sputum testing by 57·3% (95% CI 54·2-60·4).

INTERPRETATION

Xpert HR did not meet WHO minimum specificity targets for a non-sputum-based triage test for pulmonary tuberculosis. Despite promise as a rule-out test that could reduce confirmatory sputum testing, further cost-effectiveness modelling and data on acceptability and usability are needed to inform policy recommendations.

FUNDING

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the US National Institutes of Health.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Vietnamese and Tagalog translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Standards for clinical trials for treating TB

BACKGROUND: The value, speed of completion and robustness of the evidence generated by TB treatment trials could be improved by implementing standards for best practice.METHODS: A global panel of experts participated in a Delphi process, using a 7-point Likert scale to score and revise draft standards until consensus was reached.RESULTS: Eleven standards were defined: Standard 1, high quality data on TB regimens are essential to inform clinical and programmatic management; Standard 2, the research questions addressed by TB trials should be relevant to affected communities, who should be included in all trial stages; Standard 3, trials should make every effort to be as inclusive as possible; Standard 4, the most efficient trial designs should be considered to improve the evidence base as quickly and cost effectively as possible, without compromising quality; Standard 5, trial governance should be in line with accepted good clinical practice; Standard 6, trials should investigate and report strategies that promote optimal engagement in care; Standard 7, where possible, TB trials should include pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic components; Standard 8, outcomes should include frequency of disease recurrence and post-treatment sequelae; Standard 9, TB trials should aim to harmonise key outcomes and data structures across studies; Standard 10, TB trials should include biobanking; Standard 11, treatment trials should invest in capacity strengthening of local trial and TB programme staff.CONCLUSION: These standards should improve the efficiency and effectiveness of evidence generation, as well as the translation of research into policy and practice.

Drug interaction potential of high-dose rifampicin in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis

Accumulating evidence supports the use of higher doses of rifampicin for tuberculosis (TB) treatment. Rifampicin is a potent inducer of metabolic enzymes and drug transporters, resulting in clinically relevant drug interactions. To assess the drug interaction potential of higher doses of rifampicin, we compared the effect of high-dose rifampicin (40 mg/kg daily, RIF40) and standard-dose rifampicin (10 mg/kg daily, RIF10) on the activities of major cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes and P-glycoprotein (P-gp). In this open-label, single-arm, two-period, fixed-order phenotyping cocktail study, adult participants with pulmonary TB received RIF10 (days 1-15), followed by RIF40 (days 16-30). A single dose of selective substrates (probe drugs) was administered orally on days 15 and 30: caffeine (CYP1A2), tolbutamide (CYP2C9), omeprazole (CYP2C19), dextromethorphan (CYP2D6), midazolam (CYP3A), and digoxin (P-gp). Intensive pharmacokinetic blood sampling was performed over 24 hours after probe drug intake. In all, 25 participants completed the study. Geometric mean ratios (90% confidence interval) of the total exposure (area under the concentration versus time curve, RIF40 versus RIF10) for each of the probe drugs were as follows: caffeine, 105% (96%-115%); tolbutamide, 80% (74%-86%); omeprazole, 55% (47%-65%); dextromethorphan, 77% (68%-86%); midazolam, 62% (49%-78%), and 117% (105%-130%) for digoxin. In summary, high-dose rifampicin resulted in no additional effect on CYP1A2, mild additional induction of CYP2C9, CYP2C19, CYP2D6, and CYP3A, and marginal inhibition of P-gp. Existing recommendations on managing drug interactions with rifampicin can remain unchanged for the majority of co-administered drugs when using high-dose rifampicin. Clinical Trials registration number NCT04525235.

Viral suppression among adults with HIV receiving routine dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy and 3 months weekly isoniazid-rifapentine

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate safety of 3 months weekly isoniazid-rifapentine (3HP) for tuberculosis (TB) prevention when co-administered with dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy (TLD), and compare viral suppression among those initiating TLD + 3HP vs. TLD alone.

DESIGN/METHODS

We analyzed data from an ongoing Phase 3 randomized trial comparing TB screening strategies among adults with CD4 + ≤350 cells/μl initiating routine antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Kampala, Uganda. TB screen-negative participants without contraindications are referred for self-administered 3HP. HIV viral load is routinely measured at 6 and 12 months. Here, we included TB-negative participants who initiated TLD with or without 3HP. We determined the number who discontinued 3HP due to drug toxicity. In addition, we assessed viral suppression at 6 and 12 months and used log-binomial regression to assess risk of viremia at 6 months for participants who initiated TLD + 3HP vs. TLD alone.

RESULTS

Of 453 participants initiating TLD (287 [63.4%] female, median age 30 years [interquartile range (IQR) 25-37], median pre-ART CD4 + cell count 188 cells/μl [IQR 86-271]), 163 (36.0%) initiated 3HP. Of these, 154 (94.5%) completed 3HP and one (0.6%) had treatment permanently discontinued due to a possible 3HP-related adverse event. At 6 months, for participants who received TLD + 3HP, risk of viremia >50 copies/ml was 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-2.14] times that of participants who received TLD alone. There was no difference in viral suppression between those who received TLD + 3HP vs. TLD alone at 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Co-administration of TLD + 3HP was well tolerated. However, those who received TLD + 3HP were less likely to achieve viral suppression within six-months compared to those who received TLD alone.

A Standardized Approach for Collection of Objective Data to Support Outcome Determination for Late-Phase Tuberculosis Clinical Trials

Rationale: We developed a standardized method, possible poor treatment response (PPTR), to help ascertain efficacy endpoints in Study S31/A5349 (NCT02410772), an open-label trial comparing two 4-month rifapentine-based regimens with a standard 6-month regimen for the treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). Objectives: We describe the use of the PPTR process and evaluate whether the goals of minimizing bias in efficacy endpoint assessment and attainment of relevant data to determine outcomes for all participants were achieved. Methods: A PPTR event was defined as the occurrence of one or more prespecified triggers. Each PPTR required initiation of a standardized evaluation process that included obtaining multiple sputum samples for microbiology. Measurements and Main Results: Among 2,343 participants with culture-confirmed drug-susceptible TB, 454 individuals (19.4%) had a total of 534 individual PPTR events, of which 76.6% were microbiological (positive smear or culture at or after 17 wk). At least one PPTR event was experienced by 92.4% (133 of 144) of participants with TB-related unfavorable outcome and between 13.8% and 14.7% of participants with favorable and not-assessable outcomes. A total of 75% of participants with TB-related unfavorable outcomes had microbiological confirmation of failure to achieve a disease-free cure. Conclusions: Standardized methodologies, such as our PPTR approach, could facilitate unbiased efficacy outcome determinations, improve discrimination between outcomes that are related and unrelated to regimen efficacy, and enhance the ability to conduct pooled analyses of contemporary trials.

Protocol for a feasibility randomized controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy, safety and tolerability of N-acetylcysteine in reducing adverse drug reactions among adults treated for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) frequently occur in patients using second-line anti-tuberculosis medicine for treatment of multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). ADRs contribute to treatment interruptions which can compromise treatment response and risk acquired drug resistance to critical newer drugs such as bedaquiline, while severe ADRs carry considerable morbidity and mortality. N-acetylcysteine (NAC) has shown promise in reducing ADRs for medications related to TB in case series or randomized controlled trials in other medical conditions, yet evidence is lacking in MDR-TB patients. TB endemic settings have limited capacity to conduct clinical trials. We designed a proof-of-concept clinical trial primarily to explore the preliminary evidence on the protective effect of NAC among people treated for MDR-TB with second-line anti-TB medications.

METHODS

This is a proof-of-concept randomized open label clinical trial with 3 treatment arms including a control arm, an interventional arm of NAC 900 mg daily, and an interventional arm of NAC 900 mg twice-daily administered during the intensive phase of MDR-TB treatment. Patients initiating MDR-TB treatment will be enrolled at Kibong'oto National Center of Excellence for MDR-TB in the Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania. The minimum anticipated sample size is 66; with 22 participants in each arm. ADR monitoring will be performed at baseline and daily follow-up over 24 weeks including blood and urine specimen collection for hepatic and renal function and electrolyte abnormalities, and electrocardiogram. Sputum will be collected at baseline and monthly thereafter and cultured for mycobacteria as well as assayed for other molecular targets of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Adverse drug events will be analysed over time using mixed effect models. Mean differences between arms in change of the ADRs from baseline (with 95% confidence intervals) will be derived from the fitted model.

DISCUSSION

Given that NAC promotes synthesis of glutathione, an intracellular antioxidant that combats the impact of oxidative stress, it may protect against medication induced oxidative damage in organs such as liver, pancreas, kidney, and cells of the immune system. This randomized controlled trial will determine if NAC leads to fewer ADRs, and if this protection is dose dependent. Fewer ADRs among patients treated with MDR-TB may significantly improve treatment outcomes for multidrug regimens that necessitate prolonged treatment durations. Conduct of this trial will set the needed infrastructure for clinical trials.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PACTR202007736854169 Registered 03 July 2020.

Early bactericidal activity studies for pulmonary tuberculosis: a systematic review of methodological aspects

A milestone in the development of novel anti-tuberculosis drugs is demonstrating early bactericidal activity (EBA) in a phase IIa clinical trial. The significant variability in measurements of bacterial load complicates the data analysis in these trials. We performed a systematic review and evaluation of methods for determination of EBA in pulmonary tuberculosis studies. Bacterial load quantification biomarkers, reporting intervals, calculation methods, statistical testing, and handling of negative culture result were extracted. We identified 79 studies in which EBA was determined. Colony-forming units on solid culture media and/or time-to-positivity in liquid media were the most often used biomarkers, reported in 72 (91%) and 34 (43%) studies, respectively. Twenty-two different reporting intervals have been presented and twelve different calculation methods for the EBA were identified. Statistical testing for a significantly EBA compared to no change was performed in 54 (68%) studies and between-group testing was performed in 32 (41%) studies. Negative culture result handling was discussed in 34 (43%) studies. There is notable variation in the analysis methods and reporting of EBA studies. A standardized and clearly reported analysis method, accounting for different levels of variability in the data, could aid the in generalization of study results and facilitate comparison between drugs/regimens.

Rifapentine With and Without Moxifloxacin for Pulmonary Tuberculosis in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (S31/A5349)

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) Trials Consortium Study 31/AIDS Clinical Trials Group A5349, an international randomized open-label phase 3 noninferiority trial showed that a 4-month daily regimen substituting rifapentine for rifampin and moxifloxacin for ethambutol had noninferior efficacy and was safe for the treatment of drug-susceptible pulmonary TB (DS-PTB) compared with the standard 6-month regimen. We explored results among the prespecified subgroup of people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PWH).

METHODS

PWH and CD4+ counts ≥100 cells/μL were eligible if they were receiving or about to initiate efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy (ART). Primary endpoints of TB disease-free survival 12 months after randomization (efficacy) and ≥ grade 3 adverse events (AEs) on treatment (safety) were compared, using a 6.6% noninferiority margin for efficacy. Randomization was stratified by site, pulmonary cavitation, and HIV status. PWH were enrolled in a staged fashion to support cautious evaluation of drug-drug interactions between rifapentine and efavirenz.

RESULTS

A total of 2516 participants from 13 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and the Americas were enrolled. Among 194 (8%) microbiologically eligible PWH, the median CD4+ count was 344 cells/μL (interquartile range: 223-455). The rifapentine-moxifloxacin regimen was noninferior to control (absolute difference in unfavorable outcomes -7.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI] -20.8% to 6.0%); the rifapentine regimen was not noninferior to control (+7.5% [95% CI, -7.3% to +22.4%]). Fewer AEs were reported in rifapentine-based regimens (15%) than the control regimen (21%).

CONCLUSIONS

In people with HIV-associated DS-PTB with CD4+ counts ≥100 cells/μL on efavirenz-based ART, the 4-month daily rifapentine-moxifloxacin regimen was noninferior to the 6-month control regimen and was safe.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02410772.

Efavirenz Pharmacokinetics and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Viral Suppression Among Patients Receiving Tuberculosis Treatment Containing Daily High-Dose Rifapentine

BACKGROUND

A 4-month regimen containing rifapentine and moxifloxacin has noninferior efficacy compared to the standard 6-month regimen for drug-sensitive tuberculosis. We evaluated the effect of regimens containing daily, high-dose rifapentine on efavirenz pharmacokinetics and viral suppression in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculosis (TB).

METHODS

In the context of a Phase 3 randomized controlled trial, HIV-positive individuals already virally suppressed on efavirenz--containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) (EFV1), or newly initiating efavirenz (EFV2) received TB treatment containing rifapentine (1200 mg), isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and either ethambutol or moxifloxacin. Mid-interval efavirenz concentrations were measured (a) during ART and TB cotreatment (Weeks 4, 8, 12, and 17, different by EFV group) and (b) when ART was taken alone (pre- or post-TB treatment, Weeks 0 and 22). Apparent oral clearance (CL/F) was estimated and compared. Target mid-interval efavirenz concentrations were > 1 mg/L. Co-treatment was considered acceptable if > 80% of participants had mid-interval efavirenz concentrations meeting this target.

RESULTS

EFV1 and EFV2 included 70 and 41 evaluable participants, respectively. The geometric mean ratio comparing efavirenz CL/F with vs without TB drugs was 0.79 (90% confidence interval [CI] .72-.85) in EFV1 and 0.84 [90% CI .69-.97] in EFV2. The percent of participants with mid-interval efavirenz concentrations > 1mg/L in EFV1 at Weeks 0, 4, 8, and 17 was 96%, 96%, 88%, and 89%, respectively. In EFV2, at approximately 4 and 8 weeks post efavirenz initiation, the value was 98%.

CONCLUSIONS

TB treatment containing high-dose daily rifapentine modestly decreased (rather than increased) efavirenz clearance and therapeutic targets were met supporting the use of efavirenz with these regimens, without dose adjustment.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02410772.

Factors associated with screening failure and study withdrawal in multidrug-resistant TB

SETTING: Multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) clinical trial in Lima, Peru and Cape Town, South Africa.OBJECTIVE: To identify baseline factors associated with screening failure and study withdrawal in an MDR-TB clinical trial.DESIGN: We screened patients for a randomized, blinded, Phase II trial which assessed culture conversion over the first 6 months of treatment with varying doses of levofloxacin plus an optimized background regimen (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01918397). We identified factors for screening failure and study withdrawal using Poisson regression to calculate prevalence ratios and Cox proportional hazard regression to calculate hazard ratios. We adjusted for factors with P < 0.2.RESULTS: Of the 255 patients screened, 144 (56.5%) failed screening. The most common reason for screening failure was an unsuitable resistance profile on sputum-based molecular susceptibility testing (n = 105, 72.9%). No significant baseline predictors of screening failure were identified in the multivariable model. Of the 111 who were enrolled, 33 (30%) failed to complete treatment, mostly for non-adherence and consent withdrawal. No baseline factors predicted study withdrawal in the multivariable model.CONCLUSION: No baseline factors were independently associated with either screening failure or study withdrawal in this secondary analysis of a MDR-TB clinical trial.

Tuberculosis screening improves preventive therapy uptake (TB SCRIPT) trial among people living with HIV in Uganda: a study protocol of an individual randomized controlled trial

Background

People living with HIV (PLHIV) have an increased risk of developing active tuberculosis (TB). To reduce the burden of TB among PLHIV, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends systematic TB screening followed by (1) confirmatory TB testing for all who screen positive and (2) TB preventive therapy (TPT) for all TPT-eligible PLHIV who screen negative. Symptom-based screening remains the standard of care in most high TB burden settings, including Uganda. Despite having high sensitivity for active TB among antiretroviral-naïve PLHIV, symptom screening has poor specificity; as such, many high-risk PLHIV without active TB are not referred for TPT. C-reactive protein (CRP) is a promising alternative strategy for TB screening that has comparable sensitivity and higher specificity than symptom screening, and was endorsed by WHO in 2021. However, the impact of CRP-based TB screening on TB burden for PLHIV remains unclear.

Methods

TB SCRIPT (TB Screening Improves Preventive Therapy Uptake) is a phase 3, multi-center, single-blinded, individual (1:1) randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of CRP-based TB screening on clinical outcomes of PLHIV. The trial aims to compare the effectiveness of a TB screening strategy based on CRP levels using a point-of-care (POC) assay on 2-year TB incidence and all-cause mortality (composite primary trial endpoint) and prevalent TB case detection and uptake of TPT (intermediate outcomes), relative to symptom-based TB screening (current practice).

Discussion

This study will be critical to improving selection of eligible PLHIV for TPT and helping guide the scale-up and integration of TB screening and TPT activities. This work will enable the field to improve TB screening by removing barriers to TPT initiation among eligible PLHIV, and provide randomized evidence to inform and strengthen WHO guidelines.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04557176. Registered on September 21, 2020.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-022-06371-0.

Completion of isoniazid-rifapentine (3HP) for tuberculosis prevention among people living with HIV: Interim analysis of a hybrid type 3 effectiveness-implementation randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Scaling up shorter regimens for tuberculosis (TB) prevention such as once weekly isoniazid-rifapentine (3HP) taken for 3 months is a key priority for achieving targets set forth in the World Health Organization's (WHO) END TB Strategy. However, there are few data on 3HP patient acceptance and completion in the context of routine HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The 3HP Options Trial is a pragmatic, parallel type 3 effectiveness-implementation randomized trial comparing 3 optimized strategies for delivering 3HP-facilitated directly observed therapy (DOT), facilitated self-administered therapy (SAT), or informed choice between DOT and SAT using a shared decision-making aid-to people receiving care at a large urban HIV clinic in Kampala, Uganda. Participants and healthcare providers were not blinded to arm assignment due to the nature of the 3HP delivery strategies. We conducted an interim analysis of participants who were enrolled and exited the 3HP treatment period between July 13, 2020 and April 30, 2021. The primary outcome, which was aggregated across trial arms for this interim analysis, was the proportion who accepted and completed 3HP (≥11 of 12 doses within 16 weeks of randomization). We used Bayesian inference analysis to estimate the posterior probability that this proportion would exceed 80% under at least 1 of the 3HP delivery strategies, a coprimary hypothesis of the trial. Through April 2021, 684 participants have been enrolled, and 479 (70%) have exited the treatment period. Of these 479 participants, 309 (65%) were women, mean age was 41.9 years (standard deviation (SD): 9.2), and mean time on antiretroviral therapy (ART) was 7.8 years (SD: 4.3). In total, 445 of them (92.9%, 95% confidence interval (CI): [90.2 to 94.9]) accepted and completed 3HP treatment. There were no differences in treatment acceptance and completion by sex, age, or time on ART. Treatment was discontinued due to a documented adverse event (AE) in 8 (1.7%) patients. The probability that treatment acceptance and completion exceeds 80% under at least 1 of the three 3HP delivery strategies was greater than 99%. The main limitations are that the trial was conducted at a single site, and the interim analysis focused on aggregate outcome data to maintain blinding of investigators to arm-specific outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

3HP was widely accepted by people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Uganda, and very high levels of treatment completion were achieved in a programmatic setting. These findings show that 3HP can enable effective scale-up of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) in high-burden countries, particularly when delivery strategies are tailored to target known barriers to treatment completion.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03934931.

Precision-Enhancing Risk Stratification Tools for Selecting Optimal Treatment Durations in Tuberculosis Clinical Trials

Rationale: No evidence-based tools exist to enhance precision in the selection of patient-specific optimal treatment durations to study in tuberculosis clinical trials. Objectives: To develop risk stratification tools that assign patients with tuberculosis into risk groups of unfavorable outcome and inform selection of optimal treatment duration for each patient strata to study in clinical trials. Methods: Publicly available data from four phase 3 trials, each evaluating treatment duration shortening from 6 to 4 months, were used to develop parametric time-to-event models that describe unfavorable outcomes. Regimen, baseline, and on-treatment characteristics were evaluated as predictors of outcomes. Exact regression coefficients of predictors were used to assign risk groups and predict optimal treatment durations. Measurements and Main Results: The parametric model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72. A six-item risk score (HIV status, smear grade, sex, cavitary disease status, body mass index, and Month 2 culture status) successfully grouped participants into low (1,060/3,791; 28%), moderate (1,740/3,791; 46%), and high (991/3,791; 26%) risk, requiring treatment durations of 4, 6, and greater than 6 months, respectively, to reach a target cure rate of 93% when receiving standard-dose rifamycin-containing regimens. With current one-duration-fits-all approaches, high-risk groups have a 3.7-fold (95% confidence interval, 2.7-5.1) and 2.4-fold (1.9-2.9) higher hazard risk of unfavorable outcomes compared with low- and moderate-risk groups, respectively. Four-month regimens were noninferior to the standard 6-month regimen in the low-risk group. Conclusions: Our model discrimination was modest but consistent with current models of unfavorable outcomes. Our results showed that stratified medicine approaches are feasible and may achieve high cure rates in all patients with tuberculosis. An interactive risk stratification tool is provided to facilitate decision-making in the regimen development pathway.

A systematic review of endpoint definitions in late phase pulmonary tuberculosis therapeutic trials

BACKGROUND

Safe, more efficacious treatments are needed to address the considerable morbidity and mortality associated with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). However, the current practice in TB therapeutics trials is to use composite binary outcomes, which in the absence of standardization may inflate false positive and negative errors in evaluating regimens. The lack of standardization of outcomes is a barrier to the identification of highly efficacious regimens and the introduction of innovative methodologies METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of trials designed to advance new pulmonary TB drugs or regimens for regulatory approval and inform practice guidelines. Trials were primarily identified from the WHO International Clinical Trial Registry Platform (ICTRP). Only trials that collected post-treatment follow-up data and enrolled at least 100 patients were included. Protocols and Statistical Analysis Plans (SAP) for eligible trials from 1995 to the present were obtained from trial investigators. Details of outcome data, both explicit and implied, were abstracted and organized into three broad categories: favorable, unfavorable, and not assessable. Within these categories, individual trial definitions were recorded and collated, and areas of broad consensus and disagreement were identified and described.

RESULTS

From 2205 trials in any way related to TB, 51 were selected for protocol and SAP review, from which 31 were both eligible and had accessible documentation. Within the three designated categories, we found broad consensus in the definitions of favorable and unfavorable outcomes, although specific details were not always provided, and when explicitly addressed, were heterogeneous. Favorable outcomes were handled the most consistently but were widely variable with respect to specification. In some cases, the same events were defined differently by different protocols, particularly in distinguishing unfavorable from not assessable events. Death was often interpreted as conditional on cause. Patients who did not complete the study because of withdrawal or loss to follow-up presented a particular challenge to consistent interpretation and analytic treatment of outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In a review of 31 clinical trials, we found that outcome definitions were heterogeneous, highlighting the need to establish clearer specification and a move towards universal standardization of outcomes across pulmonary TB trials. The ICH E9 (R1) addendum provides guidelines for undertaking and achieving this goal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020197993 . Registration 11 August 2020.

Optimising pyrazinamide for the treatment of tuberculosis

Pyrazinamide is a potent sterilising agent that shortens the treatment duration needed to cure tuberculosis. It is synergistic with novel and existing drugs for tuberculosis. The dose of pyrazinamide that optimises efficacy while remaining safe is uncertain, as is its potential role in shortening treatment duration further.Pharmacokinetic data, sputum culture, and safety laboratory results were compiled from Tuberculosis Trials Consortium (TBTC) studies 27 and 28 and Pan-African Consortium for the Evaluation of Antituberculosis Antibiotics (PanACEA) multi-arm multi-stage tuberculosis (MAMS-TB), multi-centre phase 2 trials in which participants received rifampicin (range 10-35 mg·kg^-1), pyrazinamide (range 20-30 mg·kg^-1), plus two companion drugs. Pyrazinamide pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) and pharmacokinetic-toxicity analyses were performed.In TBTC studies (n=77), higher pyrazinamide maximum concentration (C_max) was associated with shorter time to culture conversion (TTCC) and higher probability of 2-month culture conversion (p-value<0.001). Parametric survival analyses showed that relationships varied geographically, with steeper PK-PD relationships seen among non-African than African participants. In PanACEA MAMS-TB (n=363), TTCC decreased as pyrazinamide C_max increased and varied by rifampicin area under the curve (p-value<0.01). Modelling and simulation suggested that very high doses of pyrazinamide (>4500 mg) or increasing both pyrazinamide and rifampicin would be required to reach targets associated with treatment shortening. Combining all trials, liver toxicity was rare (3.9% with grade 3 or higher liver function tests (LFT)), and no relationship was seen between pyrazinamide C_max and LFT levels.Pyrazinamide's microbiological efficacy increases with increasing drug concentrations. Optimising pyrazinamide alone, though, is unlikely to be sufficient to allow tuberculosis treatment shortening; rather, rifampicin dose would need to be increased in parallel.

Increased bactericidal activity but dose-limiting intolerability at 50 mg·kg-1 rifampicin

Background

Accumulating data indicate that higher rifampicin doses are more effective and shorten tuberculosis (TB) treatment duration. This study evaluated the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, and 7- and 14-day early bactericidal activity (EBA) of increasing doses of rifampicin. Here we report the results of the final cohorts of PanACEA HIGHRIF1, a dose escalation study in treatment-naive adult smear-positive patients with TB.

Methods

Patients received, in consecutive cohorts, 40 or 50 mg·kg⁻¹ rifampicin once daily in monotherapy (day 1–7), supplemented with standard dose isoniazid, pyrazinamide and ethambutol between days 8 and 14.

Results

In the 40 mg·kg⁻¹ cohort (n=15), 13 patients experienced a total of 36 adverse events during monotherapy, resulting in one treatment discontinuation. In the 50 mg·kg⁻¹ cohort (n=17), all patients experienced adverse events during monotherapy, 93 in total; 11 patients withdrew or stopped study medication. Adverse events were mostly mild/moderate and tolerability rather than safety related, i.e. gastrointestinal disorders, pruritis, hyperbilirubinaemia and jaundice. There was a more than proportional increase in the rifampicin geometric mean area under the plasma concentration–time curve from time 0 to 12 h (AUC_0–24 h) for 50 mg·kg⁻¹ compared with 40 mg·kg⁻¹; 571 (range 320–995) versus 387 (range 201–847) mg·L⁻¹·h, while peak exposures saw proportional increases. Protein-unbound exposure after 50 mg·kg⁻¹ (11% (range 8–17%)) was comparable with lower rifampicin doses. Rifampicin exposures and bilirubin concentrations were correlated (Spearman's ρ=0.670 on day 3, p<0.001). EBA increased considerably with dose, with the highest seen after 50 mg·kg⁻¹: 14-day EBA −0.427 (95% CI −0.500– −0.355) log₁₀CFU·mL⁻¹·day⁻¹.

Conclusion

Although associated with an increased bactericidal effect, the 50 mg·kg⁻¹ dose was not well tolerated. Rifampicin at 40 mg·kg⁻¹ was well tolerated and therefore selected for evaluation in a phase IIc treatment-shortening trial.

While bactericidal activity continues to increase with dose, for the first time we identified dose-limiting intolerability for rifampicin dosed at 50 mg·kg⁻¹; 40 mg·kg⁻¹ seems the optimal tolerable dose for evaluation in TB treatment-shortening trialshttps://bit.ly/37dUIuB

Four-Month Rifapentine Regimens with or without Moxifloxacin for Tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Rifapentine-based regimens have potent antimycobacterial activity that may allow for a shorter course in patients with drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis.

METHODS

In an open-label, phase 3, randomized, controlled trial involving persons with newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis from 13 countries, we compared two 4-month rifapentine-based regimens with a standard 6-month regimen consisting of rifampin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol (control) using a noninferiority margin of 6.6 percentage points. In one 4-month regimen, rifampin was replaced with rifapentine; in the other, rifampin was replaced with rifapentine and ethambutol with moxifloxacin. The primary efficacy outcome was survival free of tuberculosis at 12 months.

RESULTS

Among 2516 participants who had undergone randomization, 2343 had a culture positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis that was not resistant to isoniazid, rifampin, or fluoroquinolones (microbiologically eligible population; 768 in the control group, 791 in the rifapentine-moxifloxacin group, and 784 in the rifapentine group), of whom 194 were coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus and 1703 had cavitation on chest radiography. A total of 2234 participants could be assessed for the primary outcome (assessable population; 726 in the control group, 756 in the rifapentine-moxifloxacin group, and 752 in the rifapentine group). Rifapentine with moxifloxacin was noninferior to the control in the microbiologically eligible population (15.5% vs. 14.6% had an unfavorable outcome; difference, 1.0 percentage point; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.6 to 4.5) and in the assessable population (11.6% vs. 9.6%; difference, 2.0 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.1 to 5.1). Noninferiority was shown in the secondary and sensitivity analyses. Rifapentine without moxifloxacin was not shown to be noninferior to the control in either population (17.7% vs. 14.6% with an unfavorable outcome in the microbiologically eligible population; difference, 3.0 percentage points [95% CI, -0.6 to 6.6]; and 14.2% vs. 9.6% in the assessable population; difference, 4.4 percentage points [95% CI, 1.2 to 7.7]). Adverse events of grade 3 or higher occurred during the on-treatment period in 19.3% of participants in the control group, 18.8% in the rifapentine-moxifloxacin group, and 14.3% in the rifapentine group.

CONCLUSIONS

The efficacy of a 4-month rifapentine-based regimen containing moxifloxacin was noninferior to the standard 6-month regimen in the treatment of tuberculosis. (Funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and others; Study 31/A5349 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02410772.).

Investigation of the efficacy of the short regimen for rifampicin-resistant TB from the STREAM trial

BACKGROUND

The STREAM trial demonstrated that a 9-11-month "short" regimen had non-inferior efficacy and comparable safety to a 20+ month "long" regimen for the treatment of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. Imbalance in the components of the composite primary outcome merited further investigation.

METHODS

Firstly, the STREAM primary outcomes were mapped to alternatives in current use, including WHO programmatic outcome definitions and other recently proposed modifications for programmatic or research purposes. Secondly, the outcomes were re-classified according to the likelihood that it was a Failure or Relapse (FoR) event on a 5-point Likert scale: Definite, Probable, Possible, Unlikely, and Highly Unlikely. Sensitivity analyses were employed to explore the impact of informative censoring. The protocol-defined modified intention-to-treat (MITT) analysis population was used for all analyses.

RESULTS

Cure on the short regimen ranged from 75.1 to 84.2% across five alternative outcomes. However, between-regimens results did not exceed 1.3% in favor of the long regimen (95% CI upper bound 10.1%), similar to the primary efficacy results from the trial. Considering only Definite or Probable FoR events, there was weak evidence of a higher risk of FoR in the short regimen, HR 2.19 (95%CI 0.90, 5.35), p = 0.076; considering only Definite FoR events, the evidence was stronger, HR 3.53 (95%CI 1.05, 11.87), p = 0.030. Cumulative number of grade 3-4 AEs was the strongest predictor of censoring. Considering a larger effect of informative censoring attenuated treatment differences, although 95% CI were very wide.

CONCLUSION

Five alternative outcome definitions gave similar overall results. The risk of failure or relapse (FoR) may be higher in the short regimen than in the long regimen, highlighting the importance of how loss to follow-up and other censoring is accounted for in analyses. The outcome of time to FoR should be considered as a primary outcome for future drug-sensitive and drug-resistant TB treatment trials, provided sensitivity analyses exploring the impact of departures from independent censoring are also included.

Protocol for the 3HP Options Trial: a hybrid type 3 implementation-effectiveness randomized trial of delivery strategies for short-course tuberculosis preventive therapy among people living with HIV in Uganda

Background

Recently, a 3-month (12-dose) regimen of weekly isoniazid and rifapentine (3HP) was recommended by the World Health Organization for the prevention of tuberculosis (TB) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) on common antiretroviral therapy regimens. The best approach to delivering 3HP to PLHIV remains uncertain.

Methods

We developed a three-armed randomized trial assessing optimized strategies for delivering 3HP to PLHIV. The trial will be conducted at the Mulago Immune Suppression Syndrome (i.e., HIV/AIDS) clinic in Kampala, Uganda. We plan to recruit 1656 PLHIV, randomized 1:1 to each of the three arms (552 per arm). Using a hybrid type 3 effectiveness-implementation design, this pragmatic trial aims to (1) compare the acceptance and completion of 3HP among PLHIV under three delivery strategies: directly observed therapy (DOT), self-administered therapy (SAT), and informed patient choice of either DOT or SAT (with the assistance of a decision aid); (2) to identify processes and contextual factors that influence the acceptance and completion of 3HP under each delivery strategy; and (3) to estimate the costs and compare the cost-effectiveness of three strategies for delivering 3HP. The three delivery strategies were each optimized to address key barriers to 3HP completion using a theory-informed approach. We hypothesize that high levels of treatment acceptance and completion can be achieved among PLHIV in sub-Saharan Africa and that offering PLHIV an informed choice between the optimized DOT and SAT delivery strategies will result in greater acceptance and completion of 3HP. The design and planned evaluation of the delivery strategies were guided by the use of implementation science conceptual frameworks.

Discussion

3HP—one of the most promising interventions for TB prevention—will not be scaled up unless it can be delivered in a patient-centered fashion. We highlight shared decision-making as a key element of our trial design and theorize that offering PLHIV an informed choice between optimized delivery strategies will facilitate the highest levels of treatment acceptance and completion.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03934931; Registered 2 May 2019.

Tuberculosis bacillary load, an early marker of disease severity: the utility of tuberculosis Molecular Bacterial Load Assay

In this comparative biomarker study, we analysed 1768 serial sputum samples from 178 patients at 4 sites in Southeast Africa. We show that tuberculosis Molecular Bacterial Load Assay (TB-MBLA) reduces time-to-TB-bacillary-load-result from days/weeks by culture to hours and detects early patient treatment response. By day 14 of treatment, 5% of patients had cleared bacillary load to zero, rising to 58% by 12th week of treatment. Fall in bacillary load correlated with mycobacterial growth indicator tube culture time-to-positivity (Spearmans r=−0.51, 95% CI (−0.56 to −0.46), p<0.0001). Patients with high pretreatment bacillary burdens (above the cohort bacillary load average of 5.5log₁₀eCFU/ml) were less likely to convert-to-negative by 8th week of treatment than those with a low burden (below cohort bacillary load average), p=0.0005, HR 3.1, 95% CI (1.6 to 5.6) irrespective of treatment regimen. TB-MBLA distinguished the bactericidal effect of regimens revealing the moxifloxacin—20 mg rifampicin regimen produced a shorter time to bacillary clearance compared with standard-of-care regimen, p=0.008, HR 2.9, 95% CI (1.3 to 6.7). Our data show that the TB-MBLA could inform clinical decision making in real-time and expedite drug TB clinical trials.

High-dose rifapentine with or without moxifloxacin for shortening treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis: Study protocol for TBTC study 31/ACTG A5349 phase 3 clinical trial

INTRODUCTION

Phase 2 clinical trials of tuberculosis treatment have shown that once-daily regimens in which rifampin is replaced by high dose rifapentine have potent antimicrobial activity that may be sufficient to shorten overall treatment duration. Herein we describe the design of an ongoing phase 3 clinical trial testing the hypothesis that once-daily regimens containing high dose rifapentine in combination with other anti-tuberculosis drugs administered for four months can achieve cure rates not worse than the conventional six-month treatment regimen.

METHODS/DESIGN

S31/A5349 is a multicenter randomized controlled phase 3 non-inferiority trial that compares two four-month regimens with the standard six-month regimen for treating drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV-negative and HIV-positive patients. Both of the four-month regimens contain high-dose rifapentine instead of rifampin, with ethambutol replaced by moxifloxacin in one regimen. All drugs are administered seven days per week, and under direct observation at least five days per week. The primary outcome is tuberculosis disease-free survival at twelve months after study treatment assignment. A total of 2500 participants will be randomized; this gives 90% power to show non-inferiority with a 6.6% margin of non-inferiority.

DISCUSSION

This phase 3 trial formally tests the hypothesis that augmentation of rifamycin exposures can shorten tuberculosis treatment to four months. Trial design and standardized implementation optimize the likelihood of obtaining valid results. Results of this trial may have important implications for clinical management of tuberculosis at both individual and programmatic levels.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02410772. Registered 8 April 2015,https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02410772?term=02410772&rank=1.

Optimizing the Design of Latent Tuberculosis Treatment Trials: Insights from Mathematical Modeling

Rationale: Noninferiority trials of treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are challenging because of imperfect LTBI diagnostic tests.Objectives: To assess the effect on study outcomes of different enrollment strategies for a noninferiority trial of LTBI treatment.Methods: We mathematically simulated a two-arm randomized clinical trial of LTBI in which the experimental therapy was 50% efficacious and the control was 80% efficacious, with an absolute 0.75% noninferiority margin. Five enrollment strategies were assessed: 1) enroll based on no LTBI diagnostic test; 2) enroll based on a positive tuberculin skin test (TST); 3) enroll based on a positive IFN-γ release assay (IGRA); 4) enroll based on either a positive TST or IGRA; and 5) enroll regardless of test result, assuming 70% had negative TSTs, 20% positive TSTs, and 10% unknown results.Measurements and Main Results: Under most LTBI prevalence assumptions, enrolling based on a positive IGRA was least likely to result in falsely declaring noninferiority of the experimental regimen. Enrolling based on no test or regardless of test result led to falsely declaring noninferiority unless LTBI prevalence in the underlying population was higher than 45%. Enrolling based on a mix of TST and IGRA substantially reduced the likelihood of falsely declaring noninferiority over enrolling based on TST alone, even if as many as 70% of participants were enrolled based on positive TST.Conclusions: Noninferiority trials of LTBI should enroll based on the most specific diagnostic tests available (i.e., IGRAs) to avoid misclassifying inferior treatment regimens as noninferior.

Q fever-the superstition of avoiding the word "quiet" as a coping mechanism: randomised controlled non-inferiority trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine the validity of the superstition that utterance of the word "quiet" in a clinical setting increases workload.

DESIGN

Prospective randomised controlled non-inferiority study.

SETTING

Microbiology department of a large teaching hospital in Lancashire, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Two members of the medical microbiology team carried out the duty work on any given week day and an on-call team member on any weekend day. 29 days were assigned in which staff were to say "Today will be a quiet day" and 32 days were assigned in which staff were to refrain from saying the word "quiet" in any context.

INTERVENTIONS

Each day was randomly allocated to either saying "Today will be a quiet day" (intervention group) or refraining from saying the word "quiet" (control group) in any context.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was mean overall workload: a composite of number of clinically related telephone calls, clinically significant results, or validated results processed by the duty medical microbiology team during a 24 hour period referred to collectively as "clinical episodes." A difference of 30 clinical episodes was considered as the margin of non-inferiority. Secondary outcomes included the individual components of the primary outcome.

RESULTS

Workload was measured each day over a 61 day period (1 May to 30 June 2019). A mean 139.0 clinical episodes occurred on control days compared with 144.9 on days when the experimental intervention was uttered, a difference of 5.9 (95% confidence interval-12.9 to 24.7). The upper bound was less than the specified margin of 30, providing evidence for non-inferiority. No evidence of a difference in workload was found between interventions with any of the four components, whether considering unadjusted or adjusted analyses, or looking at the subgroups of week days or weekends.

CONCLUSIONS

The study findings refute the long held superstition that utterance of the word "quiet" impacts on clinical workload, and therefore it should not be avoided. In the era of considerable staff shortages and increased work related stress, doctors should look to other methods to increase resilience and protect their wellbeing and mental health.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust's research department SE-259.

The Potential for Treatment Shortening With Higher Rifampicin Doses: Relating Drug Exposure to Treatment Response in Patients With Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Background

Tuberculosis remains a huge public health problem and the prolonged treatment duration obstructs effective tuberculosis control. Higher rifampicin doses have been associated with better bactericidal activity, but optimal dosing is uncertain. This analysis aimed to characterize the relationship between rifampicin plasma exposure and treatment response over 6 months in a recent study investigating the potential for treatment shortening with high-dose rifampicin.

Methods

Data were analyzed from 336 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (97 with pharmacokinetic data) treated with rifampicin doses of 10, 20, or 35 mg/kg. The response measure was time to stable sputum culture conversion (TSCC). We derived individual exposure metrics with a previously developed population pharmacokinetic model of rifampicin. TSCC was modeled using a parametric time-to-event approach, and a sequential exposure-response analysis was performed.

Results

Higher rifampicin exposures increased the probability of early culture conversion. No maximal limit of the effect was detected within the observed range. The expected proportion of patients with stable culture conversion on liquid medium at week 8 was predicted to increase from 39% (95% confidence interval, 37%-41%) to 55% (49%-61%), with the rifampicin area under the curve increasing from 20 to 175 mg/L·h (representative for 10 and 35 mg/kg, respectively). Other predictors of TSCC were baseline bacterial load, proportion of culture results unavailable, and substitution of ethambutol for either moxifloxacin or SQ109.

Conclusions

Increasing rifampicin exposure shortened TSCC, and the effect did not plateau, indicating that doses >35 mg/kg could be yet more effective. Optimizing rifampicin dosage while preventing toxicity is a clinical priority.

Fluoroquinolones and isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis: implications for the 2018 WHO guidance

Introduction

2018 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for the treatment of isoniazid (H)-resistant (Hr) tuberculosis recommend a four-drug regimen: rifampicin (R), ethambutol (E), pyrazinamide (Z) and levofloxacin (Lfx), with or without H ([H]RZE-Lfx). This is used once Hr is known, such that patients complete 6 months of Lfx (≥6[H]RZE-6Lfx). This cohort study assessed the impact of fluoroquinolones (Fq) on treatment effectiveness, accounting for Hr mutations and degree of phenotypic resistance.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of 626 Hr tuberculosis patients notified in London, 2009–2013. Regimens were described and logistic regression undertaken of the association between regimen and negative regimen-specific outcomes (broadly, death due to tuberculosis, treatment failure or disease recurrence).

Results

Of 594 individuals with regimen information, 330 (55.6%) were treated with (H)RfZE (Rf=rifamycins) and 211 (35.5%) with (H)RfZE-Fq. The median overall treatment period was 11.9 months and median Z duration 2.1 months. In a univariable logistic regression model comparing (H)RfZE with and without Fqs, there was no difference in the odds of a negative regimen-specific outcome (baseline (H)RfZE, cluster-specific odds ratio 1.05 (95% CI 0.60–1.82), p=0.87; cluster NHS trust). Results varied minimally in a multivariable model. This odds ratio dropped (0.57, 95% CI 0.14–2.28) when Hr genotype was included, but this analysis lacked power (p=0.42).

Conclusions

In a high-income setting, we found a 12-month (H)RfZE regimen with a short Z duration to be similarly effective for Hr tuberculosis with or without a Fq. This regimen may result in fewer adverse events than the WHO recommendations.

WHO has assessed regimen recommendations for isoniazid-resistant TB to be of very low certainty. The addition of fluoroquinolones to a 12-month (isoniazid, rifamycin, ethambutol, short-duration pyrazinamide) regimen may be unnecessary in certain settings.http://bit.ly/2XoTgNL

Proposals on Kaplan-Meier plots in medical research and a survey of stakeholder views: KMunicate

OBJECTIVES

To examine reactions to the proposed improvements to standard Kaplan-Meier plots, the standard way to present time-to-event data, and to understand which (if any) facilitated better depiction of (1) the state of patients over time, and (2) uncertainty over time in the estimates of survival.

DESIGN

A survey of stakeholders' opinions on the proposals.

SETTING

A web-based survey, open to international participation, for those with an interest in visualisation of time-to-event data.

PARTICIPANTS

1174 people participated in the survey over a 6-week period. Participation was global (although primarily Europe and North America) and represented a wide range of researchers (primarily statisticians and clinicians).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Two outcome measures were of principal importance: (1) participants' opinions of each proposal compared with a 'standard' Kaplan-Meier plot; and (2) participants' overall ranking of the proposals (including the standard).

RESULTS

Most proposals were more popular than the standard Kaplan-Meier plot. The most popular proposals in the two categories, respectively, were an extended table beneath the plot depicting the numbers at risk, censored and having experienced an event at periodic timepoints, and CIs around each Kaplan-Meier curve.

CONCLUSIONS

This study produced a high response number, reflecting the importance of graphics for time-to-event data. Those producing and publishing Kaplan-Meier plots-both authors and journals-should, as a starting point, consider using the combination of the two favoured proposals.

Toxicity related to standard TB therapy for pulmonary tuberculosis and treatment outcomes in the REMoxTB study according to HIV status

BACKGROUND

The phase III REMoxTB study prospectively enrolled HIV-positive (with CD4+ count > 250 cells, not on anti-retroviral therapy) and HIV-negative patients. We investigated the incidence of adverse events and cure rates according to HIV status for patients receiving standard TB therapy in the trial.

METHODS

Forty-two HIV-positive cases were matched to 220 HIV-negative controls by age, gender, ethnicity, and trial site using coarsened exact matching. Grade 3 and 4 adverse events (AEs) were summarised by MedDRA System Organ Class. Kaplan-Meier curves for time to first grade 3 or 4 AE were constructed according to HIV status with hazard ratios calculated. Patients were considered cured if they were culture negative 18 months after commencing therapy with ≥2 consecutive negative culture results.

RESULTS

Twenty of 42 (47.6%) HIV-positive and 34 of 220 (15.5%) HIV-negative patients experienced ≥1 grade 3 or 4 AE, respectively. The majority of these were hepatobiliary disorders that accounted for 12 of 40 (30.0%) events occurring in 6 of 42 (14.3%) HIV-positive patients and for 15 of 60 (25.0%) events occurring in 9 of 220 (4.1%) HIV-negative patients. The median time to first grade 3 or 4 AE was 54 days (IQR 15.5-59.0) for HIV-positive and 29.5 days (IQR 9.0-119.0) for HIV-negative patients, respectively. The hazard ratio for experiencing a grade 3 or 4 AE among HIV-positive patients was 3.25 (95% CI 1.87-5.66, p < 0.01). Cure rates were similar, with 38 of 42 (90.5%) HIV-positive and 195 of 220 (88.6%) HIV-negative patients (p = 0.73) cured at 18 months.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-positive patients receiving standard TB therapy in the REMoxTB study were at greater risk of adverse events during treatment but cure rates were similar when compared to a matched sample of HIV-negative patients.

A Trial of a Shorter Regimen for Rifampin-Resistant Tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Cohort studies in Bangladesh showed promising cure rates among patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis who received existing drugs in regimens shorter than that recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2011.

METHODS

We conducted a phase 3 noninferiority trial in participants with rifampin-resistant tuberculosis that was susceptible to fluoroquinolones and aminoglycosides. Participants were randomly assigned, in a 2:1 ratio, to receive a short regimen (9 to 11 months) that included high-dose moxifloxacin or a long regimen (20 months) that followed the 2011 WHO guidelines. The primary efficacy outcome was a favorable status at 132 weeks, defined by cultures negative for Mycobacterium tuberculosis at 132 weeks and at a previous occasion, with no intervening positive culture or previous unfavorable outcome. An upper 95% confidence limit for the between-group difference in favorable status that was 10 percentage points or less was used to determine noninferiority.

RESULTS

Of 424 participants who underwent randomization, 383 were included in the modified intention-to-treat population. Favorable status was reported in 79.8% of participants in the long-regimen group and in 78.8% of those in the short-regimen group - a difference, with adjustment for human immunodeficiency virus status, of 1.0 percentage point (95% confidence interval [CI], -7.5 to 9.5) (P = 0.02 for noninferiority). The results with respect to noninferiority were consistent among the 321 participants in the per-protocol population (adjusted difference, -0.7 percentage points; 95% CI, -10.5 to 9.1). An adverse event of grade 3 or higher occurred in 45.4% of participants in the long-regimen group and in 48.2% in the short-regimen group. Prolongation of either the QT interval or the corrected QT interval (calculated with Fridericia's formula) to 500 msec occurred in 11.0% of participants in the short-regimen group, as compared with 6.4% in the long-regimen group (P = 0.14); because of the greater incidence in the short-regimen group, participants were closely monitored and some received medication adjustments. Death occurred in 8.5% of participants in the short-regimen group and in 6.4% in the long-regimen group, and acquired resistance to fluoroquinolones or aminoglycosides occurred in 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In persons with rifampin-resistant tuberculosis that was susceptible to fluoroquinolones and aminoglycosides, a short regimen was noninferior to a long regimen with respect to the primary efficacy outcome and was similar to the long regimen in terms of safety. (Funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development and others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN78372190; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02409290.).

Keeping phase III tuberculosis trials relevant: Adapting to a rapidly changing landscape

In a Collection Review, Patrick Phillips and colleagues discuss developments in clinical trial design for the evaluation of TB therapeutics.

Toxicity associated with tuberculosis chemotherapy in the REMoxTB study

BACKGROUND

The incidence and severity of tuberculosis chemotherapy toxicity is poorly characterised. We used data available from patients in the REMoxTB trial to provide an assessment of the risks associated with the standard regimen and two experimental regimens containing moxifloxacin.

METHODS

All grade 3 & 4 adverse events (AEs) and their relationship to treatment for patients who had taken at least one dose of therapy in the REMoxTB clinical trial were recorded. Univariable logistic regression was used to test the relationship of baseline characteristics to the incidence of grade 3 & 4 AEs and significant characteristics (p < 0.10) were incorporated into a multivariable model. The timing of AEs during therapy was analysed in standard therapy and the experimental arms. Logistic regression was used to investigate the relationship between AEs (total and related-only) and microbiological cure on treatment.

RESULTS

In the standard therapy arm 57 (8.9%) of 639 patients experienced ≥1 related AEs with 80 of the total 113 related events (70.8%) occurring in the intensive phase of treatment. Both four-month experimental arms ("isoniazid arm" with moxifloxacin substituted for ethambutol & "ethambutol arm" with moxifloxacin substituted for isoniazid) had a lower total of related grade 3 & 4 AEs than standard therapy (63 & 65 vs 113 AEs). Female gender (adjOR 1.97, 95% CI 0.91-1.83) and HIV-positive status (adjOR 3.33, 95% CI 1.55-7.14) were significantly associated with experiencing ≥1 related AE (p < 0.05) on standard therapy. The most common adverse events on standard therapy related to hepatobiliary, musculoskeletal and metabolic disorders. Patients who experienced ≥1 related AE were more likely to fail treatment or relapse (adjOR 3.11, 95% CI 1.59-6.10, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Most AEs considered related to standard therapy occurred in the intensive phase of treatment with female patients and HIV-positive patients demonstrating a significantly higher risk of AEs during treatment. Almost a tenth of standard therapy patients had a significant side effect, whereas both experimental arms recorded a lower incidence of toxicity. That patients with one or more AE are more likely to fail treatment suggests that treatment outcomes could be improved by identifying such patients through targeted monitoring.

Pretreatment chest x-ray severity and its relation to bacterial burden in smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Chest radiographs are used for diagnosis and severity assessment in tuberculosis (TB). The extent of disease as determined by smear grade and cavitation as a binary measure can predict 2-month smear results, but little has been done to determine whether radiological severity reflects the bacterial burden at diagnosis.

METHODS

Pre-treatment chest x-rays from 1837 participants with smear-positive pulmonary TB enrolled into the REMoxTB trial (Gillespie et al., N Engl J Med 371:1577-87, 2014) were retrospectively reviewed. Two clinicians blinded to clinical details using the Ralph scoring system performed separate readings. An independent reader reviewed discrepant results for quality assessment and cavity presence. Cavitation presence was plotted against time to positivity (TTP) of sputum liquid cultures (MGIT 960). The Wilcoxon rank sum test was performed to calculate the difference in average TTP for these groups. The average lung field affected was compared to log ₁₀ TTP by linear regression. Baseline markers of disease severity and patient characteristics were added in univariable regression analysis against radiological severity and a multivariable regression model was created to explore their relationship.

RESULTS

For 1354 participants, the median TTP was 117 h (4.88 days), being 26 h longer (95% CI 16-30, p < 0.001) in patients without cavitation compared to those with cavitation. The median percentage of lung-field affected was 18.1% (IQR 11.3-28.8%). For every 10-fold increase in TTP, the area of lung field affected decreased by 11.4%. Multivariable models showed that serum albumin decreased significantly as the percentage of lung field area increased in both those with and without cavitation. In addition, BMI and logged TTP had a small but significant effect in those with cavitation and the number of severe TB symptoms in the non-cavitation group also had a small effect, whilst other factors found to be significant on univariable analysis lost this effect in the model.

CONCLUSIONS

The radiological severity of disease on chest x-ray prior to treatment in smear positive pulmonary TB patients is weakly associated with the bacterial burden. When compared against other variables at diagnosis, this effect is lost in those without cavitation. Radiological severity does reflect the overall disease severity in smear positive pulmonary TB, but we suggest that clinicians should be cautious in over-interpreting the significance of radiological disease extent at diagnosis.

Liver toxicity associated with tuberculosis chemotherapy in the REMoxTB study

BACKGROUND

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a common complication of tuberculosis treatment. We utilised data from the REMoxTB clinical trial to describe the incidence of predisposing factors and the natural history in patients with liver enzyme levels elevated in response to tuberculosis treatment.

METHODS

Patients received either standard tuberculosis treatment (2EHRZ/4HR), or a 4-month regimen in which moxifloxacin replaced either ethambutol (isoniazid arm, 2MHRZ/2MHR) or isoniazid (ethambutol arm, 2EMRZ/2MR). Hepatic enzymes were measured at 0, 2, 4, 8, 12 and 17 weeks and as clinically indicated during reported adverse events. Patients included were those receiving at least one dose of drug and with two or more hepatic enzyme measurements.

RESULTS

A total of 1928 patients were included (639 2EHRZ/4HR, 654 2MHRZ/2MHR and 635 2EMRZ/2MR). DILI was defined as peak alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ≥ 5 times the upper limit of normal (5 × ULN) or ALT ≥ 3 × ULN with total bilirubin > 2 × ULN. DILI was identified in 58 of the 1928 (3.0%) patients at a median time of 28 days (interquartile range IQR 14-56). Of 639 (6.4%) patients taking standard tuberculosis therapy, 41 experienced clinically significant enzyme elevations (peak ALT ≥ 3 × ULN). On standard therapy, 21.1% of patients aged >55 years developed a peak ALT/aspartate aminotransferase (AST) ≥ 3 × ULN (p = 0.01) and 15% of HIV-positive patients experienced a peak ALT/AST ≥ 3 × ULN compared to 9% of HIV-negative patients (p = 0.160). The median peak ALT/AST was higher in isoniazid-containing regimens vs no-isoniazid regimens (p < 0.05), and lower in moxifloxacin-containing arms vs no-moxifloxacin arms (p < 0.05). Patients receiving isoniazid reached a peak ALT ≥ 3 × ULN 9.5 days earlier than those on the ethambutol arm (median time of 28 days vs 18.5 days). Of the 67 Asian patients with a peak ALT/AST ≥ 3 × ULN, 57 (85.1%) were on an isoniazid-containing regimen (p = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide evidence of the risk of DILI in tuberculosis patients on standard treatment. Older patients on standard therapy, HIV-positive patients, Asian patients and those receiving isoniazid were at higher risk of elevated enzyme levels. Monitoring hepatic enzymes during the first 2 months of standard therapy detected approximately 75% of patients with a peak enzyme elevation ≥3 × ULN, suggesting this should be a standard of care. These results provide evidence for the potential of moxifloxacin in hepatic sparing.

Cost-effectiveness of donepezil and memantine in moderate to severe Alzheimer's disease (the DOMINO-AD trial)

OBJECTIVE

Most investigations of pharmacotherapy for treating Alzheimer's disease focus on patients with mild-to-moderate symptoms, with little evidence to guide clinical decisions when symptoms become severe. We examined whether continuing donepezil, or commencing memantine, is cost-effective for community-dwelling, moderate-to-severe Alzheimer's disease patients.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness analysis was based on a 52-week, multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, factorial clinical trial. A total of 295 community-dwelling patients with moderate/severe Alzheimer's disease, already treated with donepezil, were randomised to: (i) continue donepezil; (ii) discontinue donepezil; (iii) discontinue donepezil and start memantine; or (iv) continue donepezil and start memantine.

RESULTS

Continuing donepezil for 52 weeks was more cost-effective than discontinuation, considering cognition, activities of daily living and health-related quality of life. Starting memantine was more cost-effective than donepezil discontinuation. Donepezil-memantine combined is not more cost-effective than donepezil alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Robust evidence is now available to inform clinical decisions and commissioning strategies so as to improve patients' lives whilst making efficient use of available resources. Clinical guidelines for treating moderate/severe Alzheimer's disease, such as those issued by NICE in England and Wales, should be revisited. © 2016 The Authors. International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An optimized background regimen design to evaluate the contribution of levofloxacin to multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment regimens: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background

Current guidelines for treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are largely based on expert opinion and observational data. Fluoroquinolones remain an essential part of MDR-TB treatment, but the optimal dose of fluoroquinolones as part of the regimen has not been defined.

Methods/design

We designed a randomized, blinded, phase II trial in MDR-TB patients comparing across levofloxacin doses of 11, 14, 17 and 20 mg/kg/day, all within an optimized background regimen. We assess pharmacokinetics, efficacy, safety and tolerability of regimens containing each of these doses. The primary efficacy outcome is time to culture conversion over the first 6 months of treatment. The study aims to determine the area under the curve (AUC) of the levofloxacin serum concentration in the 24 hours after dosing divided by the minimal inhibitory concentration of the patient’s Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolate that inhibits > 90% of organisms (AUC/MIC) that maximizes efficacy and the AUC that maximizes safety and tolerability in the context of an MDR-TB treatment regimen.

Discussion

Fluoroquinolones are an integral part of recommended MDR-TB regimens. Little is known about how to optimize dosing for efficacy while maintaining acceptable toxicity. This study will provide evidence to support revised dosing guidelines for the use of levofloxacin as part of combination regimens for treatment of MDR-TB. The novel methodology can be adapted to elucidate the effect of other single agents in multidrug antibiotic treatment regimens.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01918397. Registered on 5 August 2013.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-017-2292-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A comparison of liquid and solid culture for determining relapse and durable cure in phase III TB trials for new regimens

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis kills more people than any other infectious disease, and new regimens are essential. The primary endpoint for confirmatory phase III trials for new regimens is a composite outcome that includes bacteriological treatment failure and relapse. Culture methodology is critical to the primary trial outcome. Patients in clinical trials can have positive cultures after treatment ends that may not necessarily indicate relapse, which was ascribed previously to laboratory cross-contamination or breakdown of old lesions. Löwenstein-Jensen (LJ) medium was the previous standard in clinical trials, but almost all current and future trials will use the Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube (MGIT) system due to its simplicity and consistency of use, which will affect phase III trial results. LJ was used for the definition of the primary endpoint in the REMoxTB trial, but every culture was also inoculated in parallel into the MGIT system. The data from this trial, therefore, provide a unique opportunity to investigate and compare the incidence of false 'isolated positives' in liquid and solid media and their potential impact on the primary efficacy results.

METHODS

All post-treatment positive cultures were reviewed in the REMoxTB clinical trial. Logistic regression models were used to model the incidence of isolated positive cultures on MGIT and LJ.

RESULTS

A total of 12,209 sputum samples were available from 1652 patients; cultures were more often positive on MGIT than LJ. In 1322 patients with a favourable trial outcome, 126 (9.5%) had cultures that were positive in MGIT compared to 34 (2.6%) patients with positive cultures on LJ. Among patients with a favourable outcome, the incidence of isolated positives on MGIT differed by study laboratory (p < 0.0001) with 21.9% of these coming from one laboratory investigating only 4.9% of patients. No other baseline factors predicted isolated positives on MGIT after adjusting for laboratory. There was evidence of clustering of isolated positive cultures in some patients even after adjusting for laboratory, p < 0.0001. The incidence of isolated positives on MGIT did not differ by treatment arm (p = 0.845, unadjusted). Compared to negative MGIT cultures, positive MGIT cultures were more likely to be associated with higher grade TB symptoms reported within 7 days either side of sputum collection in patients with an unfavourable primary outcome (p < 0.0001) but not in patients with a favourable outcome (p = 0.481).

CONCLUSIONS

Laboratory cross-contamination was a likely cause of isolated positive MGIT cultures which were clustered in some laboratories. Certain patients had repeated positive MGIT cultures that did not meet the definition of a relapse. This pattern was too common to be explained by cross-contamination only, suggesting that host factors were also responsible. We conclude that MGIT can replace LJ in phase III TB trials, but there are implications for the definition of the primary outcome and patient management in trials in such settings. Most importantly, the methodologies differ in the incidence of isolated positives and in their capacity for capturing non-tuberculosis mycobacteria. It emphasises the importance of effective medical monitoring after treatment ends and consideration of clinical signs and symptoms for determining treatment failure and relapse.

Spot sputum samples are at least as good as early morning samples for identifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

The use of early morning sputum samples (EMS) to diagnose tuberculosis (TB) can result in treatment delay given the need for the patient to return to the clinic with the EMS, increasing the chance of patients being lost during their diagnostic workup. However, there is little evidence to support the superiority of EMS over spot sputum samples. In this new analysis of the REMoxTB study, we compare the diagnostic accuracy of EMS with spot samples for identifying Mycobacterium tuberculosis pre- and post-treatment.

METHODS

Patients who were smear positive at screening were enrolled into the study. Paired sputum samples (one EMS and one spot) were collected at each trial visit pre- and post-treatment. Microscopy and culture on solid LJ and liquid MGIT media were performed on all samples; those missing corresponding paired results were excluded from the analyses.

RESULTS

Data from 1115 pre- and 2995 post-treatment paired samples from 1931 patients enrolled in the REMoxTB study were analysed. Patients were recruited from South Africa (47%), East Africa (21%), India (20%), Asia (11%), and North America (1%); 70% were male, median age 31 years (IQR 24-41), 139 (7%) co-infected with HIV with a median CD4 cell count of 399 cells/μL (IQR 318-535). Pre-treatment spot samples had a higher yield of positive Ziehl-Neelsen smears (98% vs. 97%, P = 0.02) and LJ cultures (87% vs. 82%, P = 0.006) than EMS, but there was no difference for positivity by MGIT (93% vs. 95%, P = 0.18). Contaminated and false-positive MGIT were found more often with EMS rather than spot samples. Surprisingly, pre-treatment EMS had a higher smear grading and shorter time-to-positivity, by 1 day, than spot samples in MGIT culture (4.5 vs. 5.5 days, P < 0.001). There were no differences in time to positivity in pre-treatment LJ culture, or in post-treatment MGIT or LJ cultures. Comparing EMS and spot samples in those with unfavourable outcomes, there were no differences in smear or culture results, and positive results were not detected earlier in Kaplan-Meier analyses in either EMS or spot samples.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data do not support the hypothesis that EMS samples are superior to spot sputum samples in a clinical trial of patients with smear positive pulmonary TB. Observed small differences in mycobacterial burden are of uncertain significance and EMS samples do not detect post-treatment positives any sooner than spot samples.

Outcomes from patients with presumed drug resistant tuberculosis in five reference centers in Brazil

Background

The implementation of rapid drug susceptibility testing (DST) is a current global priority for TB control. However, data are scarce on patient-relevant outcomes for presumptive diagnosis of drug-resistant tuberculosis (pDR-TB) evaluated under field conditions in high burden countries.

Methods

Observational study of pDR-TB patients referred by primary and secondary health units. TB reference centers addressing DR-TB in five cities in Brazil. Patients age 18 years and older were eligible if pDR-TB, culture positive results for Mycobacterium tuberculosis and, if no prior DST results from another laboratory were used by a physician to start anti-TB treatment. The outcome measures were median time from triage to initiating appropriate anti-TB treatment, empirical treatment and, the treatment outcomes.

Results

Between February,16th, 2011 and February, 15th, 2012, among 175 pDR TB cases, 110 (63.0%) confirmed TB cases with DST results were enrolled. Among study participants, 72 (65.5%) were male and 62 (56.4%) aged 26 to 45 years. At triage, empirical treatment was given to 106 (96.0%) subjects. Among those, 85 were treated with first line drugs and 21 with second line. Median time for DST results was 69.5 [interquartile - IQR: 35.7–111.0] days and, for initiating appropriate anti-TB treatment, the median time was 1.0 (IQR: 0–41.2) days. Among 95 patients that were followed-up during the first 6 month period, 24 (25.3%; IC: 17.5%–34.9%) changed or initiated the treatment after DST results: 16/29 MDRTB, 5/21 DR-TB and 3/45 DS-TB cases. Comparing the treatment outcome to DS-TB cases, MDRTB had higher proportions changing or initiating treatment after DST results (p = 0.01) and favorable outcomes (p = 0.07).

Conclusions

This study shows a high rate of empirical treatment and long delay for DST results. Strategies to speed up the detection and early treatment of drug resistant TB should be prioritized.

High-dose rifampicin, moxifloxacin, and SQ109 for treating tuberculosis: a multi-arm, multi-stage randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is the world's leading infectious disease killer. We aimed to identify shorter, safer drug regimens for the treatment of tuberculosis.

METHODS

We did a randomised controlled, open-label trial with a multi-arm, multi-stage design. The trial was done in seven sites in South Africa and Tanzania, including hospitals, health centres, and clinical trial centres. Patients with newly diagnosed, rifampicin-sensitive, previously untreated pulmonary tuberculosis were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1:1:2 ratio to receive (all orally) either 35 mg/kg rifampicin per day with 15-20 mg/kg ethambutol, 20 mg/kg rifampicin per day with 400 mg moxifloxacin, 20 mg/kg rifampicin per day with 300 mg SQ109, 10 mg/kg rifampicin per day with 300 mg SQ109, or a daily standard control regimen (10 mg/kg rifampicin, 5 mg/kg isoniazid, 25 mg/kg pyrazinamide, and 15-20 mg/kg ethambutol). Experimental treatments were given with oral 5 mg/kg isoniazid and 25 mg/kg pyrazinamide per day for 12 weeks, followed by 14 weeks of 5 mg/kg isoniazid and 10 mg/kg rifampicin per day. Because of the orange discoloration of body fluids with higher doses of rifampicin it was not possible to mask patients and clinicians to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was time to culture conversion in liquid media within 12 weeks. Patients without evidence of rifampicin resistance on phenotypic test who took at least one dose of study treatment and had one positive culture on liquid or solid media before or within the first 2 weeks of treatment were included in the primary analysis (modified intention to treat). Time-to-event data were analysed using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model and adjusted for minimisation variables. The proportional hazard assumption was tested using Schoelfeld residuals, with threshold p<0·05 for non-proportionality. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01785186).

FINDINGS

Between May 7, 2013, and March 25, 2014, we enrolled and randomly assigned 365 patients to different treatment arms (63 to rifampicin 35 mg/kg, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol; 59 to rifampicin 10 mg/kg, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, SQ109; 57 to rifampicin 20 mg/kg, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and SQ109; 63 to rifampicin 10 mg/kg, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and moxifloxacin; and 123 to the control arm). Recruitment was stopped early in the arms containing SQ109 since prespecified efficacy thresholds were not met at the planned interim analysis. Time to stable culture conversion in liquid media was faster in the 35 mg/kg rifampicin group than in the control group (median 48 days vs 62 days, adjusted hazard ratio 1·78; 95% CI 1·22-2·58, p=0·003), but not in other experimental arms. There was no difference in any of the groups in time to culture conversion on solid media. 11 patients had treatment failure or recurrent disease during post-treatment follow-up: one in the 35 mg/kg rifampicin arm and none in the moxifloxacin arm. 45 (12%) of 365 patients reported grade 3-5 adverse events, with similar proportions in each arm.

INTERPRETATION

A dose of 35 mg/kg rifampicin was safe, reduced the time to culture conversion in liquid media, and could be a promising component of future, shorter regimens. Our adaptive trial design was successfully implemented in a multi-centre, high tuberculosis burden setting, and could speed regimen development at reduced cost.

FUNDING

The study was funded by the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials partnership (EDCTP), the German Ministry for Education and Research (BmBF), and the Medical Research Council UK (MRC).

Non-inferiority trials: are they inferior? A systematic review of reporting in major medical journals

OBJECTIVE

To assess the adequacy of reporting of non-inferiority trials alongside the consistency and utility of current recommended analyses and guidelines.

DESIGN

Review of randomised clinical trials that used a non-inferiority design published between January 2010 and May 2015 in medical journals that had an impact factor >10 (JAMA Internal Medicine, Archives Internal Medicine, PLOS Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, JAMA, Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine).

DATA SOURCES

Ovid (MEDLINE).

METHODS

We searched for non-inferiority trials and assessed the following: choice of non-inferiority margin and justification of margin; power and significance level for sample size; patient population used and how this was defined; any missing data methods used and assumptions declared and any sensitivity analyses used.

RESULTS

A total of 168 trial publications were included. Most trials concluded non-inferiority (132; 79%). The non-inferiority margin was reported for 98% (164), but less than half reported any justification for the margin (77; 46%). While most chose two different analyses (91; 54%) the most common being intention-to-treat (ITT) or modified ITT and per-protocol, a large number of articles only chose to conduct and report one analysis (65; 39%), most commonly the ITT analysis. There was lack of clarity or inconsistency between the type I error rate and corresponding CIs for 73 (43%) articles. Missing data were rarely considered with (99; 59%) not declaring whether imputation techniques were used.

CONCLUSIONS

Reporting and conduct of non-inferiority trials is inconsistent and does not follow the recommendations in available statistical guidelines, which are not wholly consistent themselves. Authors should clearly describe the methods used and provide clear descriptions of and justifications for their design and primary analysis. Failure to do this risks misleading conclusions being drawn, with consequent effects on clinical practice.

Type I error rates of multi-arm multi-stage clinical trials: strong control and impact of intermediate outcomes

BACKGROUND

The multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) design described by Royston et al. [Stat Med. 2003;22(14):2239-56 and Trials. 2011;12:81] can accelerate treatment evaluation by comparing multiple treatments with a control in a single trial and stopping recruitment to arms not showing sufficient promise during the course of the study. To increase efficiency further, interim assessments can be based on an intermediate outcome (I) that is observed earlier than the definitive outcome (D) of the study. Two measures of type I error rate are often of interest in a MAMS trial. Pairwise type I error rate (PWER) is the probability of recommending an ineffective treatment at the end of the study regardless of other experimental arms in the trial. Familywise type I error rate (FWER) is the probability of recommending at least one ineffective treatment and is often of greater interest in a study with more than one experimental arm.

METHODS

We demonstrate how to calculate the PWER and FWER when the I and D outcomes in a MAMS design differ. We explore how each measure varies with respect to the underlying treatment effect on I and show how to control the type I error rate under any scenario. We conclude by applying the methods to estimate the maximum type I error rate of an ongoing MAMS study and show how the design might have looked had it controlled the FWER under any scenario.

RESULTS

The PWER and FWER converge to their maximum values as the effectiveness of the experimental arms on I increases. We show that both measures can be controlled under any scenario by setting the pairwise significance level in the final stage of the study to the target level. In an example, controlling the FWER is shown to increase considerably the size of the trial although it remains substantially more efficient than evaluating each new treatment in separate trials.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed methods allow the PWER and FWER to be controlled in various MAMS designs, potentially increasing the uptake of the MAMS design in practice. The methods are also applicable in cases where the I and D outcomes are identical.

Challenges in the clinical assessment of novel tuberculosis drugs

To tackle the global TB epidemic effectively, novel treatment strategies are critically needed to shorten the duration of TB therapy and treat drug-resistant TB. Drug development for TB, stymied for decades, has enjoyed a renaissance over the past several years. However, the development of new TB regimens is hindered by the limitations in our understanding and use of preclinical models; the paucity of accurate, early surrogate markers of cure, and challenges in untangling the individual contributions of drugs to multidrug regimens in a complex, multi-compartment disease. Lack of profit motive, advocacy, and imagination has contributed mightily to the dearth of drugs we have on the shelf to treat this ancient disease. Areas that will speed the development of new regimens for TB include novel murine and in vitro pharmacodynamics models, clinical endpoints that are not culture-based, innovative clinical trial designs, and an infusion of much-needed funding.

The Impact of a Line Probe Assay Based Diagnostic Algorithm on Time to Treatment Initiation and Treatment Outcomes for Multidrug Resistant TB Patients in Arkhangelsk Region, Russia

BACKGROUND

In the Arkhangelsk region of Northern Russia, multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) rates in new cases are amongst the highest in the world. In 2014, MDR-TB rates reached 31.7% among new cases and 56.9% among retreatment cases. The development of new diagnostic tools allows for faster detection of both TB and MDR-TB and should lead to reduced transmission by earlier initiation of anti-TB therapy.

STUDY AIM

The PROVE-IT (Policy Relevant Outcomes from Validating Evidence on Impact) Russia study aimed to assess the impact of the implementation of line probe assay (LPA) as part of an LPA-based diagnostic algorithm for patients with presumptive MDR-TB focusing on time to treatment initiation with time from first-care seeking visit to the initiation of MDR-TB treatment rather than diagnostic accuracy as the primary outcome, and to assess treatment outcomes. We hypothesized that the implementation of LPA would result in faster time to treatment initiation and better treatment outcomes.

METHODS

A culture-based diagnostic algorithm used prior to LPA implementation was compared to an LPA-based algorithm that replaced BacTAlert and Löwenstein Jensen (LJ) for drug sensitivity testing. A total of 295 MDR-TB patients were included in the study, 163 diagnosed with the culture-based algorithm, 132 with the LPA-based algorithm.

RESULTS

Among smear positive patients, the implementation of the LPA-based algorithm was associated with a median decrease in time to MDR-TB treatment initiation of 50 and 66 days compared to the culture-based algorithm (BacTAlert and LJ respectively, p<0.001). In smear negative patients, the LPA-based algorithm was associated with a median decrease in time to MDR-TB treatment initiation of 78 days when compared to the culture-based algorithm (LJ, p<0.001). However, several weeks were still needed for treatment initiation in LPA-based algorithm, 24 days in smear positive, and 62 days in smear negative patients. Overall treatment outcomes were better in LPA-based algorithm compared to culture-based algorithm (p = 0.003). Treatment success rates at 20 months of treatment were higher in patients diagnosed with the LPA-based algorithm (65.2%) as compared to those diagnosed with the culture-based algorithm (44.8%). Mortality was also lower in the LPA-based algorithm group (7.6%) compared to the culture-based algorithm group (15.9%). There was no statistically significant difference in smear and culture conversion rates between the two algorithms.

CONCLUSION

The results of the study suggest that the introduction of LPA leads to faster time to MDR diagnosis and earlier treatment initiation as well as better treatment outcomes for patients with MDR-TB. These findings also highlight the need for further improvements within the health system to reduce both patient and diagnostic delays to truly optimize the impact of new, rapid diagnostics.