Contribution of remote M.tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease: A 30-year population study

BACKGROUND

The importance of remote infection with M.tuberculosis as a cause of tuberculosis disease (TB) is unclear, with limited evidence of impact on TB rates beyond 10 years. Our objective was to assess rates of tuberculosis over 30 years by M.tuberculosis infection status at baseline in Karonga District, Northern Malawi.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Population-based surveys of tuberculin skin testing (TST) from the 1980s were linked with follow-up and TB surveillance in Karonga district. We compared rates of microbiologically-confirmed TB by baseline TST induration <5mm (no evidence of M.tuberculosis infection) and those with baseline TST >17mm (evidence of M.tuberculosis infection), using hazard ratios by time since baseline and attributable risk percent. The attributable risk percent was calculated to estimate the proportion of TB in those infected that can be attributed to that prior infection. We analysed whole genome sequences of M.tuberculosis strains to identify recent transmission.

RESULTS

Over 412,959 person-years, 208 incident TB episodes were recorded. Compared to the small induration group, rates of TB were much higher in the first two years in the large induration group, and remained higher to 20 years: age, sex and area-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) 2-9 years post-TST 4.27 (95%CI 2.56-7.11); 10-19 years after TST 2.15 (1.10-4.21); ≥20 years post-TST 1.88 (0.76-4.65). The attributable risk percent of remote infection was 76.6% (60.9-85.9) 2-9 years post-TST, and 53.5% (9.1-76.2) 10-19 years post-TST. Individuals with large TST indurations had higher rates of unique-strain TB (HR adjusted for age, sex and area = HR 6.56 (95% CI 1.96-22.99)), suggesting disease following remote infection, but not of linked-strain TB (recent transmission).

CONCLUSIONS

M.tuberculosis infection can increase the risk of TB far beyond 10 years, accounting for a substantial proportion of TB occurring among those remotely infected.

Genome-wide association study of leprosy in Malawi and Mali

Leprosy is a chronic infection of the skin and peripheral nerves caused by Mycobacterium leprae. Despite recent improvements in disease control, leprosy remains an important cause of infectious disability globally. Large-scale genetic association studies in Chinese, Vietnamese and Indian populations have identified over 30 susceptibility loci for leprosy. There is a significant burden of leprosy in Africa, however it is uncertain whether the findings of published genetic association studies are generalizable to African populations. To address this, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of leprosy in Malawian (327 cases, 436 controls) and Malian (247 cases, 368 controls) individuals. In that analysis, we replicated four risk loci previously reported in China, Vietnam and India; MHC Class I and II, LACC1 and SLC29A3. We further identified a novel leprosy susceptibility locus at 10q24 (rs2015583; combined p = 8.81 × 10-9; OR = 0.51 [95% CI 0.40 - 0.64]). Using publicly-available data we characterise regulatory activity at this locus, identifying ACTR1A as a candidate mediator of leprosy risk. This locus shows evidence of recent positive selection and demonstrates pleiotropy with established risk loci for inflammatory bowel disease and childhood-onset asthma. A shared genetic architecture for leprosy and inflammatory bowel disease has been previously described. We expand on this, strengthening the hypothesis that selection pressure driven by leprosy has shaped the evolution of autoimmune and atopic disease in modern populations. More broadly, our data highlights the importance of defining the genetic architecture of disease across genetically diverse populations, and that disease insights derived from GWAS in one population may not translate to all affected populations.

The effect of BCG revaccination on all-cause mortality beyond infancy: 30-year follow-up of a population-based, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Trials of BCG vaccination to prevent or reduce severity of COVID-19 are taking place in adults, some of whom have been previously vaccinated, but evidence of the beneficial, non-specific effects of BCG come largely from data on mortality in infants and young children, and from in-vitro and animal studies, after a first BCG vaccination. We assess all-cause mortality following a large BCG revaccination trial in Malawi.

METHODS

The Karonga Prevention trial was a population-based, double-blind, randomised controlled in Karonga District, northern Malawi, that enrolled participants between January, 1986, and November, 1989. The trial compared BCG (Glaxo-strain) revaccination versus placebo to prevent tuberculosis and leprosy. 46 889 individuals aged 3 months to 75 years were randomly assigned to receive BCG revaccination (n=23 528) or placebo (n=23 361). Here we report mortality since vaccination as recorded during active follow-up in northern areas of the district in 1991-94, and in a demographic surveillance follow-up in the southern area in 2002-18. 7389 individuals who received BCG (n=3746) or placebo (n=3643) lived in the northern follow-up areas, and 5616 individuals who received BCG (n=2798) or placebo (n=2818) lived in the southern area. Year of death or leaving the area were recorded for those not found. We used survival analysis to estimate all-cause mortality.

FINDINGS

Follow-up information was available for 3709 (99·0%) BCG recipients and 3612 (99·1%) placebo recipients in the northern areas, and 2449 (87·5%) BCG recipients and 2413 (85·6%) placebo recipients in the southern area. There was no difference in mortality between the BCG and placebo groups in either area, overall or by age group or sex. In the northern area, there were 129 deaths per 19 694 person-years at risk in the BCG group (6·6 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·5-7·8]) versus 133 deaths per 19 111 person-years at risk in the placebo group (7·0 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·9-8·2]; HR 0·94 [95% CI 0·74-1·20]; p=0·62). In the southern area, there were 241 deaths per 38 399 person-years at risk in the BCG group (6·3 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·5-7·1]) versus 230 deaths per 38 676 person-years at risk in the placebo group (5·9 deaths per 1000 person-years at risk [95% CI 5·2-6·8]; HR 1·06 [95% CI 0·88-1·27]; p=0·54).

INTERPRETATION

We found little evidence of any beneficial effect of BCG revaccination on all-cause mortality. The high proportion of deaths attributable to non-infectious causes beyond infancy, and the long time interval since BCG for most deaths, might obscure any benefits.

FUNDING

British Leprosy Relief Association (LEPRA); Wellcome Trust.

BCG re-vaccination in Malawi: 30-year follow-up of a large, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

A large, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial of repeat BCG found 49% efficacy against leprosy but no protection against tuberculosis after 6-9 years' follow-up in 1995. We report here additional follow-up, which resulted in greatly increased tuberculosis case numbers, and allowed subgroup analysis.

METHODS

Nearly 47 000 individuals of all ages living in northern Malawi with a BCG vaccine scar were randomly assigned (1:1) between 1986 and 1989 to receive a second BCG or placebo. The investigators and project staff remained masked to all interventions. Enhanced passive surveillance ensured ascertainment of tuberculosis and leprosy to the end of 2018. Tuberculosis case definitions included rigorous microbiological or histological confirmation. Prespecified subgroup analyses were by tuberculosis type, age at vaccination, time since vaccination, previous tuberculin reactivity, HIV status and Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineage. The original trial is registered with ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN11311670.

FINDINGS

In follow-up until Dec 31, 2018, 824 participants had developed tuberculosis, including 786 with pulmonary disease, of whom 383 (63%) of 607 with known HIV status were HIV positive. There was no effect of a second BCG overall (odds ratio [OR] 0·92; 95% CI 0·80-1·05), or for pulmonary (0·93; 0·81-1·07), or lymph node tuberculosis (0·60; 0·31-1·17). The OR was lower for those with known HIV-negative tuberculosis (0·77; 0·59-1·00), for those vaccinated as children (aged <5 years, 0·74; 0·41-1·35; aged 5-14 years, 0·77; 0·60-0·99), and for cases arising at least 20 years after vaccination (0·79; 0·63-1·01). There were no differences by tuberculin status at vaccination, or lineage. There was no evidence of protection against leprosy beyond 10 years after vaccination (although there have been only nine diagnostically certain cases since 1995).

INTERPRETATION

There was no evidence that repeat BCG vaccination provides appreciable protection against overall tuberculosis in this rural African population with a high prevalence of HIV. Subgroup effects should not be overinterpreted given the multiple analyses done. However, the evidence for modest protection against HIV-negative tuberculosis, and for a delayed benefit in those vaccinated as children, is consistent with other observations in the literature.

FUNDING

LEPRA, Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The duration of protection of school-aged BCG vaccination in England: a population-based case-control study

Background

Evidence of protection from childhood Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) against tuberculosis (TB) in adulthood, when most transmission occurs, is important for TB control and resource allocation.

Methods

We conducted a population-based case-control study of protection by BCG given to children aged 12-13 years against tuberculosis occurring 10-29 years later. We recruited UK-born White subjects with tuberculosis and randomly sampled White community controls. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using case-cohort Cox regression, adjusting for potential confounding factors, including socio-economic status, smoking, drug use, prison and homelessness. Vaccine effectiveness (VE = 1 - hazard ratio) was assessed at successive intervals more than 10 years following vaccination.

Results

We obtained 677 cases and 1170 controls after a 65% response rate in both groups. Confounding by deprivation, education and lifestyle factors was slight 10-20 years after vaccination, and more evident after 20 years. VE 10-15 years after vaccination was 51% (95% CI 21, 69%) and 57% (CI 33, 72%) at 15-20 years. Subsequently, BCG protection appeared to wane; 20-25 years VE = 25% (CI -14%, 51%) and 25-29 years VE = 1% (CI -84%, 47%). Based on multiple imputation of missing data (in 17% subjects), VE estimated in the same intervals after vaccination were similar [56% (CI 33, 72%), 57% (CI 36, 71%), 25% (-10, 48%), 21% (-39, 55%)].

Conclusions

School-aged BCG vaccination offered moderate protection against tuberculosis for at least 20 years, which is longer than previously thought. This has implications for assessing the cost-effectiveness of BCG vaccination and when evaluating new TB vaccines.

Risk factors for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in 2-4 year olds in a rural HIV-prevalent setting

BACKGROUND

Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in children acts as a sentinel for infectious tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE

To assess risk factors associated with tuberculous infection in pre-school children.

METHOD

We conducted a population-wide tuberculin skin test (TST) survey from January to December 2012 in Malawi. All children aged 2-4 years residing in a demographic surveillance area were eligible. Detailed demographic data, including adult human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, and clinical and sociodemographic data on all diagnosed tuberculosis (TB) patients were available.

RESULTS

The prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection was 1.1% using a TST induration cut-off of 15 mm (estimated annual risk of infection of 0.3%). The main identifiable risk factors were maternal HIV infection at birth (adjusted OR [aOR] 3.6, 95%CI 1.1-12.2), having three or more adult members in the household over a lifetime (aOR 2.4, 95%CI 1.2-4.8) and living in close proximity to a known case of infectious TB (aOR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.4), modelled as a linear variable across categories (>200 m, 100-200 m, <100 m, within household). Less than 20% of the infected children lived within 200 m of a known diagnosed case.

CONCLUSION

Household and community risk factors identified do not explain the majority of M. tuberculosis infections in children in our setting.

The decline of leprosy in the Republic of Korea; patterns and trends 1977-2013

BACKGROUND

Though the World Health Organization declared the 'elimination of leprosy as public health problem' in 2000, the disease remains endemic in many countries. Current trends in incidence of infection and disease are unclear.

METHODS

Data on leprosy prevalence between 1977-2013 and data on new leprosy cases detected in the Republic of Korea between 1989-2013 were analysed by age, sex, clinical types, mode of detection, family history, disability grading and geographical distribution.

RESULTS

Both prevalence and incidence have declined greatly. There has been a shift to an increased proportion of multibacillary disease, and older age groups, consistent with a dramatic decrease in infection transmission in recent decades. An increase in proportion of cases with family history of disease is consistent with these declines. There is evidence that declines in infection and disease have been greater in the north of the country, as revealed in patterns by place of birth over time. Cases in immigrants now form a substantial proportion of leprosy disease in the Republic of Korea.

CONCLUSIONS

Leprosy has declined dramatically in the Republic of Korea in recent decades, and transmission of M. leprae may have effectively stopped. There remains a burden of care for individuals whose disease developed in the past, and there may be some additional newly detected cases among immigrants and among older individuals who acquired autochthonous infections decades ago.

Impact of foot-and-mouth disease on mastitis and culling on a large-scale dairy farm in Kenya

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly transmissible viral infection of cloven hooved animals associated with severe economic losses when introduced into FMD-free countries. Information on the impact of the disease in FMDV-endemic countries is poorly characterised yet essential for the prioritisation of scarce resources for disease control programmes. A FMD (virus serotype SAT2) outbreak on a large-scale dairy farm in Nakuru County, Kenya provided an opportunity to evaluate the impact of FMD on clinical mastitis and culling rate. A cohort approach followed animals over a 12-month period after the commencement of the outbreak. For culling, all animals were included; for mastitis, those over 18 months of age. FMD was recorded in 400/644 cattle over a 29-day period. During the follow-up period 76 animals were culled or died whilst in the over 18 month old cohort 63 developed clinical mastitis. Hazard ratios (HR) were generated using Cox regression accounting for non-proportional hazards by inclusion of time-varying effects. Univariable analysis showed FMD cases were culled sooner but there was no effect on clinical mastitis. After adjusting for possible confounders and inclusion of time-varying effects there was weak evidence to support an effect of FMD on culling (HR = 1.7, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.88-3.1, P = 0.12). For mastitis, there was stronger evidence of an increased rate in the first month after the onset of the outbreak (HR = 2.9, 95%CI 0.97-8.9, P = 0.057).

Large-scale whole genome sequencing of M. tuberculosis provides insights into transmission in a high prevalence area

To improve understanding of the factors influencing tuberculosis transmission and the role of pathogen variation, we sequenced all available specimens from patients diagnosed over 15 years in a whole district in Malawi. Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages were assigned and transmission networks constructed, allowing ≤10 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) difference. We defined disease as due to recent infection if the network-determined source was within 5 years, and assessed transmissibility from forward transmissions resulting in disease. High-quality sequences were available for 1687 disease episodes (72% of all culture-positive episodes): 66% of patients linked to at least one other patient. The between-patient mutation rate was 0.26 SNPs/year (95% CI 0.21–0.31). We showed striking differences by lineage in the proportion of disease due to recent transmission and in transmissibility (highest for lineage-2 and lowest for lineage-1) that were not confounded by immigration, HIV status or drug resistance. Transmissions resulting in disease decreased markedly over time.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.05166.001

Tuberculosis is an important public health threat around the globe and is particularly common in developing countries. It is difficult to control the spread of the disease because the bacteria that cause it can spread when an infected individual coughs or sneezes. It may take years for an infected individual to develop symptoms of tuberculosis so it can be hard to trace the source of an outbreak, and people infected with HIV are particularly susceptible to the disease.

The bacterium that causes the majority of cases of tuberculosis is called Mycobacterium tuberculosis. There are several different varieties or ‘lineages’ of M. tuberculosis, and it is thought that they may vary in their ability to spread and cause disease. However, the results of previous studies have been inconsistent and there also seems to be a lot of variation between strains within the same lineage.

In this study, Guerra-Assunção et al. used an approach called whole genome sequencing alongside more traditional methods to study the spread of tuberculosis in Malawi. They sequenced the genomes of every available sample of M. tuberculosis collected from patients in the Karonga district of Malawi over a 15-year period. This produced high-quality DNA sequence data about the bacteria responsible for almost 1700 cases of disease.

Using this massive amount of data, Guerra-Assunção et al. constructed networks that showed how the bacteria had spread in the community. This revealed that there were differences between the ability of the various M. tuberculosis lineages to cause disease and to spread in communities. For example, lineage 1 was less likely than the other lineages to cause disease soon after infecting an individual and was less able to spread.

The data also show that the proportion of cases of disease due to recent infection declined substantially during the 15-year period. This indicates that the tuberculosis and HIV control programmes in the area have been successful.

Guerra-Assunção et al.'s findings show that it is possible to understand how tuberculosis is transmitted on a large scale. The next challenge is to understand why the lineages differ in their ability to cause disease and spread between individuals.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.05166.002

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the current evidence on the duration of protection by bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination against tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence suggests that the duration of protection by bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) may exceed previous estimates with potential implications for estimating clinical and cost-efficacy.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the protection and duration of protection provided by BCG vaccination against tuberculosis, explore how this protection changes with time since vaccination, and examine the reasons behind the variation in protection and the rate of waning of protection.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases including MEDLINE, Excerpta Medica Database (EMBASE), Cochrane Databases, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), Web of Knowledge, Biosciences Information Service (BIOSIS), Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACs), MEDCARIB Database, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) were searched from inception to May 2009. Index to Theses, System for Information on Grey Literature in Europe (SIGLE), Centre for Agricultural Bioscience International (CABI) Abstracts, Scopus, Article First, Academic Complete, Africa-Wide Information, Google Scholar, Global Health, British National Bibliography for Report Literature, and clinical trial registration websites were searched from inception to October 2009.

REVIEW METHODS

Electronic databases searches, screening of identified studies, data extraction and analysis were undertaken. Meta-analysis was used to present numerical and graphical summaries of clinical efficacy and efficacy by time since vaccination. Evidence of heterogeneity was assessed using the tau-squared statistic. Meta-regression allowed the investigation of observed heterogeneity. Factors investigated included BCG strain, latitude, stringency of pre-BCG vaccination tuberculin testing, age at vaccination, site of disease, study design and vulnerability to biases. Rate of waning of protection was estimated using the ratio of the measure of efficacy after 10 years compared with the efficacy in the first 10 years of a study.

RESULTS

Study selection. A total of 21,030 references were identified, providing data on 132 studies after abstract and full-text review. Efficacy. Protection against pulmonary tuberculosis in adults is variable, ranging from substantial protection in the UK MRC trial {rate ratio 0.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16 to 0.31]}, to absence of clinically important benefit, as in the large Chingleput trial [rate ratio 1.05 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.25)] and greater in latitudes further away from the equator. BCG vaccination efficacy was usually high, and varied little by form of disease (with higher protection against meningeal and miliary tuberculosis) or study design when BCG vaccination was given only to infants or to children after strict screening for tuberculin sensitivity. High levels of protection against death were observed from both trials and observational studies. The observed protective effect of BCG vaccination did not differ by the strain of BCG vaccine used in trials.

DURATION

Reviewed studies showed that BCG vaccination protects against pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis for up to 10 years. Most studies either did not follow up participants for long enough or had very few cases after 15 years. This should not be taken to indicate an absence of effect: five studies (one trial and four observational studies) provided evidence of measurable protection at least 15 years after vaccination. Efficacy declined with time. The rate of decline was variable, with faster decline in latitudes further from the equator and in situations where BCG vaccination was given to tuberculin-sensitive participants after stringent tuberculin testing.

LIMITATIONS

The main limitation of this review relates to quality of included trials, most of which were conducted before current standards for reporting were formulated. In addition, data were lacking in some areas and the review had to rely on evidence from observational studies.

CONCLUSIONS

BCG vaccination protection against tuberculosis varies between populations, to an extent that cannot be attributed to chance alone. Failure to exclude those already sensitised to mycobacteria and study latitude closer to the equator were associated with lower efficacy. These factors explained most of the observed variation. There is good evidence that BCG vaccination protection declines with time and that protection can last for up to 10 years. Data on protection beyond 15 years are limited; however, a small number of trials and observational studies suggest that BCG vaccination may protect for longer. Further studies are required to investigate the duration of protection by BCG vaccination.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Protection by BCG vaccine against tuberculosis: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Randomized trials assessing BCG vaccine protection against tuberculosis have widely varying results, for reasons that are not well understood.

METHODS

We examined associations of trial setting and design with BCG efficacy against pulmonary and miliary or meningeal tuberculosis by conducting a systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regression.

RESULTS

We identified 18 trials reporting pulmonary tuberculosis and 6 reporting miliary or meningeal tuberculosis. Univariable meta-regression indicated efficacy against pulmonary tuberculosis varied according to 3 characteristics. Protection appeared greatest in children stringently tuberculin tested, to try to exclude prior infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis or sensitization to environmental mycobacteria (rate ratio [RR], 0.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], .18-.37), or infants (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, .29-.58). Protection was weaker in children not stringently tested (RR, 0.59; 95% CI, .35-1.01) and older individuals stringently or not stringently tested (RR, 0.88; 95% CI, .59-1.31 and RR, 0.81; 95% CI, .55-1.22, respectively). Protection was higher in trials further from the equator where environmental mycobacteria are less and with lower risk of diagnostic detection bias. These associations were attenuated in a multivariable model, but each had an independent effect. There was no evidence that efficacy was associated with BCG strain. Protection against meningeal and miliary tuberculosis was also high in infants (RR, 0.1; 95% CI, .01-.77) and children stringently tuberculin tested (RR, 0.08; 95% CI, .03-.25).

CONCLUSIONS

Absence of prior M. tuberculosis infection or sensitization with environmental mycobacteria is associated with higher efficacy of BCG against pulmonary tuberculosis and possibly against miliary and meningeal tuberculosis. Evaluations of new tuberculosis vaccines should account for the possibility that prior infection may mask or block their effects.

Control of (multi)drug resistance and tuberculosis incidence over 23 years in the context of a well-supported tuberculosis programme in rural Malawi

Background

The rise in tuberculosis (TB) incidence following generalized HIV epidemics can overwhelm TB control programmes in resource-limited settings, sometimes accompanied by rising rates of drug resistance. This has led to claims that DOTS-based TB control has failed in such settings. However, few studies have described the effect of a sustained and well-supported DOTS programme on TB incidence and drug resistance over a long period. We present long-term trends in incidence and drug resistance in rural Malawi.

Methods

Karonga District in northern Malawi has an adult HIV prevalence of ∼10%. A research group, the Karonga Prevention Study, collaborates with the National Tuberculosis Programme to support core TB control activities. Bacteriological, demographic and clinical (including HIV status) information from all patients starting TB treatment in the District have been recorded since 1988. During that period isolates from each culture-positive TB patient were exported for drug sensitivity testing. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been widely available since 2005.

Results

Incidence of new smear-positive adult TB peaked at 124/100,000/year in the mid-90s, but has since fallen to 87/100,000/year. Drug sensitivity information was available for 95% (3132/3307) of all culture-positive cases. Initial resistance to isoniazid was around 6% with no evidence of an increase. Fewer than 1% of episodes involved a multi-drug resistant strain.

Discussion

In this setting with a generalised HIV epidemic and medium TB burden, a well-supported DOTS programme enhanced by routine culture and drug sensitivity testing may well have reduced TB incidence and maintained drug resistance at low levels.

Profile: the Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System

The Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Karonga HDSS) in northern Malawi currently has a population of more than 35 000 individuals under continuous demographic surveillance since completion of a baseline census (2002–2004). The surveillance system collects data on vital events and migration for individuals and for households. It also provides data on cause-specific mortality obtained by verbal autopsy for all age groups, and estimates rates of disease for specific presentations via linkage to clinical facility data. The Karonga HDSS provides a structure for surveys of socio-economic status, HIV sero-prevalence and incidence, sexual behaviour, fertility intentions and a sampling frame for other studies, as well as evaluating the impact of interventions, such as antiretroviral therapy and vaccination programmes. Uniquely, it relies on a network of village informants to report vital events and household moves, and furthermore is linked to an archive of biological samples and data from population surveys and other studies dating back three decades.

Patterns and trends of leprosy in Mexico: 1989-2009

Data from the Mexican national leprosy control programme 1989-2009 are described and analysed. After initial increases associated with the introduction of MDT and the start of the global elimination initiative in the early 1990 s, both prevalence and incidence declined dramatically throughout most of the country. Reported prevalence fell below 1 per 10000 in 1994 and has remained below that level ever since. There is considerable geographic heterogeneity, with highest case detection rates in western states bordering the Pacific and lowest in the south east. Reasons for these geographic differences are unclear. There is evidence of increases in average age of cases, and in proportions male and MB, as in several other populations with declining leprosy. There is some evidence of increasing leprosy in states bordering on Texas, USA, where M. leprae is known to be harboured in armadillos. The relevance of armadillos for leprosy in Mexico is unclear but a priority question.

Married to M. tuberculosis: risk of infection and disease in spouses of smear-positive tuberculosis patients

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the risk of infection and disease in spouses of tuberculosis patients and the extent to which intervention could reduce the risk in this highly exposed group.

METHODS

We compared HIV prevalence, TB prevalence and incidence and tuberculin skin test (TST) results in spouses of TB patients and community controls. HIV-positive spouses were offered isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT), and TST was repeated at 6, 12 and 24 months.

RESULTS

We recruited 148 spouses of smear-positive patients ascertained prospectively and 3% had active TB. We identified 203 spouses of previously diagnosed smear-positive patients, 11 had already had TB, and the rate of TB was 2.4 per 100 person years(py) over 2 years (95% CI 1.15-5.09). 116 were found alive and recruited. HIV prevalence was 37% and 39% in the prospective and retrospective spouse groups and 17% in controls. TST was ≥10 mm in 80% of HIV negative and in 57% of HIV-positive spouses ascertained retrospectively; 74% HIV negative and 62% HIV-positive spouses ascertained prospectively, and 48% HIV negative and 26% HIV-positive community controls. Of 54 HIV-positive spouses, 18 completed 6-month IPT. At 2 year follow-up, 87% of surviving spouses had TST ≥10 mm and the rate of TB was 1.1 per 100 py (95% CI 0.34-3.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Spouses are a high-risk group who should be screened for HIV and active TB. TST prevalence was already high by the time the spouses were approached but further infections were seen to occur. Uptake and adherence to IPT was disappointing, lessening the impact of short-duration therapy.

What happens to ART-eligible patients who do not start ART? Dropout between screening and ART initiation: a cohort study in Karonga, Malawi

Background

Routine ART programme statistics generally only provide information about individuals who start treatment. We aimed to investigate the outcome of those who are eligible but do not start ART in the Malawi programme, factors associated with this dropout, and reasons for not starting treatment, in a prospective cohort study.

Methods

Individuals having a first screening visit at the ART clinic at Karonga District Hospital, northern Malawi, between September 2005 and July 2006 were interviewed. Study follow-up to identify treatment outcomes was conducted at the clinic and in the community. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with dropout before ART initiation among participants identified as clinically eligible for ART.

Results

88 participants eligible for ART at their first screening visit (out of 633, 13.9%) defaulted before starting ART. Participants with less education, difficulties in dressing, a more delayed ART initiation appointment, and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) < 22 cm were significantly less likely to have visited the clinic subsequently. Thirty-five (58%) of the 60 participants who defaulted and were tracked at home had died, 21 before their ART initiation appointment.

Conclusions

MUAC and reported difficulties in dressing may provide useful screening indicators to identify sicker ART-eligible individuals at high risk of dropping out of the programme who might benefit from being brought back quickly or admitted to hospital for observation. Individuals with less education may need adapted health information at screening. Deaths of ART-eligible individuals occurring prior to ART initiation are not included in routine programme statistics. Considering all those who are eligible for ART as a denominator for programme indicators would help to highlight this vulnerable group, in order to identify new opportunities for further improving ART programmes.

Changes in Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotype families over 20 years in a population-based study in Northern Malawi

BACKGROUND

Despite increasing interest in possible differences in virulence and transmissibility between different genotypes of M. tuberculosis, very little is known about how genotypes within a population change over decades, or about relationships to HIV infection.

METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

In a population-based study in rural Malawi we have examined smears and cultures from tuberculosis patients over a 20-year period using spoligotyping. Isolates were grouped into spoligotype families and lineages following previously published criteria. Time trends, HIV status, drug resistance and outcome were examined by spoligotype family and lineage. In addition, transmissibility was examined among pairs of cases with known epidemiological contact by assessing the proportion of transmissions confirmed for each lineage, on the basis of IS6110 RFLP similarity of the M tuberculosis strains. 760 spoligotypes were obtained from smears from 518 patients from 1986-2002, and 377 spoligotypes from cultures from 347 patients from 2005-2008. There was good consistency in patients with multiple specimens. Among 781 patients with first episode tuberculosis, the majority (76%) had Lineage 4 ("European/American") strains; 9% had Lineage 3 ("East-African/Indian"); 8% Lineage 1 ("Indo-Oceanic"); and 2% Lineage 2 ("East-Asian"); others unclassifiable. Over time the proportion of Lineage 4 decreased from >90% to 60%, with an increase in the other 3 lineages (p<0.001). Lineage 1 strains were more common in those with HIV infection, even after adjusting for age, sex and year. There were no associations with drug resistance or outcome, and no differences by lineage in the proportion of pairs in which transmission was confirmed.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to describe long term trends in the four M. tuberculosis lineages in a population. Lineage 4 has probably been longstanding in this population, with relatively recent introductions and spread of Lineages1-3, perhaps influenced by the HIV epidemic.

Human immunodeficiency virus increases the risk of tuberculosis due to recent re-infection in individuals with latent infection

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus associated tuberculosis (TB) disease can follow reactivation of latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection or recent (re-)infection with M. tuberculosis. If contemporary TB cases share identical M. tuberculosis strains (i.e., are 'clustered'), the episode is likely to have followed recent (re-)infection, irrespective of evidence of previous latent infection.

METHODS

Individuals experiencing a first TB episode between 1996 and 2008 in Karonga District, Northern Malawi, were included if information on M. tuberculosis infection status (from tuberculin tests) before 1990 and a DNA fingerprint from the TB episode were available. We explored differences in proportion clustered by prior M. tuberculosis infection status and HIV status, adjusting for age, sex, bacille Calmette-Guérin scar status and time since tuberculin testing.

RESULTS

Of 79 HIV-negative TB cases, those with previous M. tuberculosis infection were much less likely to be clustered than cases without prior infection (29% vs. 77%, adjusted OR = 0.15, 95%CI 0.04-0.59). Among 119 HIV-positive TB cases, clustering was similar in both groups (88% vs. 84%, adjusted OR = 1.85, 95%CI 0.41-8.29).

DISCUSSION

HIV infection appears to increase the risk of TB following recent re-infection in patients with latent M. tuberculosis infection. Our results add to the mounting evidence that HIV-associated TB mainly follows recent M. tuberculosis infection.

Leprosy and the adaptation of human toll-like receptor 1

Leprosy is an infectious disease caused by the obligate intracellular pathogen Mycobacterium leprae and remains endemic in many parts of the world. Despite several major studies on susceptibility to leprosy, few genomic loci have been replicated independently. We have conducted an association analysis of more than 1,500 individuals from different case-control and family studies, and observed consistent associations between genetic variants in both TLR1 and the HLA-DRB1/DQA1 regions with susceptibility to leprosy (TLR1 I602S, case-control P = 5.7×10⁻⁸, OR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.20–0.48, and HLA-DQA1 rs1071630, case-control P = 4.9×10⁻¹⁴, OR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.35–0.54). The effect sizes of these associations suggest that TLR1 and HLA-DRB1/DQA1 are major susceptibility genes in susceptibility to leprosy. Further population differentiation analysis shows that the TLR1 locus is extremely differentiated. The protective dysfunctional 602S allele is rare in Africa but expands to become the dominant allele among individuals of European descent. This supports the hypothesis that this locus may be under selection from mycobacteria or other pathogens that are recognized by TLR1 and its co-receptors. These observations provide insight into the long standing host-pathogen relationship between human and mycobacteria and highlight the key role of the TLR pathway in infectious diseases.

Mycobacterium leprae is an obligate intracellular pathogen that causes leprosy, a disease that shares a long history with the human population but which remains endemic in many parts of the world. Despite the fact that the genome of M. leprae has been sequenced, our understanding of its pathogenesis and interaction with the human host is limited, in part due to the inability to culture the bacterium in vitro. In this gene-centric microarray study, we have genotyped SNPs in over 2,000 genes and identified TLR1 and HLA-DRB1/DQA1 as major leprosy susceptibility genes. Studying the geographical distribution of this hypo-functional TLR1 variant demonstrated extreme population differentiation at this locus. These results suggest that leprosy may have contributed to the evolution of this genomic region, and provide insight into the long history of the host-pathogen relationship between humans and M. leprae.

Child mortality in rural Malawi: HIV closes the survival gap between the socio-economic strata

BACKGROUND

As HIV-related deaths increase in a population the usual association between low socioeconomic status and child mortality may change, particularly as death rates from other causes decline.

METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

As part of a demographic surveillance system in northern Malawi in 2002-6, covering a population of 32,000, information was collected on socio-economic status of the households. Deaths were classified as HIV/AIDS-related or not by verbal autopsy. Poisson regression models were used to assess the association of socio-economic indicators with all-cause mortality, AIDS-mortality and non-AIDS mortality among children. There were 195 deaths in infants, 109 in children aged 1-4 years, and 38 in children aged 5-15. All-cause child mortality in infants and 1-4 year olds was similar in households with higher and lower socio-economic status. In infants 13% of deaths were attributed to AIDS, and there were no clear trends with socio-economic status for AIDS or non-AIDS causes. For 1-4 year olds 27% of deaths were attributed to AIDS. AIDS mortality was higher among those with better built houses, and lowest in those with income from farming and fishing, whereas non-AIDS mortality was higher in those with worse built houses, lowest in those with income from employment, and decreased with increasing household assets.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

In this population, since HIV infection among adults was initially more common among the less poor, childhood mortality patterns have changed. The usual gap in survival between the poor and the less poor has been lost, but because the less poor have been disproportionately affected by HIV, rather than because of relative improvement in the survival of the poorest.

Declining child mortality in northern Malawi despite high rates of infection with HIV

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether routine surveys, such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), have underestimated child mortality in Malawi.

METHODS

Rates and causes of child mortality were obtained from a continuous-registration demographic surveillance system (DSS) in Malawi for a population of 32 000. After initial census, births and deaths were reported by village informants and updated monthly by project enumerators. Cause of death was established by verbal autopsy whenever possible. The likely impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection on child mortality was also estimated from antenatal clinic surveillance data. Overall and age-specific mortality rates were compared with those from the 2004 Malawi DHS.

FINDINGS

Between August 2002 and February 2006, 38 617 person-years of observation were recorded for 20 388 children aged < 15 years. There were 342 deaths. Re-census data, follow-up visits at 12 months of age and the ratio of stillbirths to neonatal deaths suggested that death registration by the DSS was nearly complete. Infant mortality was 52.7 per 1000 live births, under-5 mortality was 84.8 per 1000 and under-15 mortality was 99.1 per 1000. One-fifth of deaths by age 15 were attributable to HIV infection. Child mortality rates estimated with the DSS were approximately 30% lower than those from national estimates as determined by routine surveys.

CONCLUSION

The fact that child mortality rates based on the DSS were relatively low in the study population is encouraging and suggests that the low mortality rates estimated nationally are an accurate reflection of decreasing rates.

The decline of leprosy in Japan: patterns and trends 1964-2008

OBJECTIVE

Our purpose was to elucidate the patterns and trends of autochthonous leprosy in Japan from 1964 to 2008, to compare them with the findings from other studies of leprosy in decline, and to determine whether M. leprae transmission persists in Japan.

DESIGN

Data on registered leprosy cases in Japan in the period 1964-2008 were analysed with reference to trends in case detection, geographical distribution, age at diagnosis, sex, classification, family history and broad correlation with socioeconomic conditions.

RESULTS

A consistent decline in leprosy case detection was observed in all areas of the country over the period 1964-2008. Highest incidence was consistently in Okinawa, the southernmost part of Japan. Autochthonous leprosy has not been reported in anyone born in Japan since 1980. Increasing average age and a shift towards lower latitudes were demonstrated throughout the period. There was an inverse association between regional measures of wealth and leprosy incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Leprosy has declined throughout the past century in Japan. Autochthonous transmission has probably stopped in mainland Japan, but may still occur at a low level in Okinawa, the country's southernmost region. Analyses of data on autochthonous cases revealed patterns similar to those reported in other countries with declining leprosy. Detailed comparisons between countries with very low leprosy incidence may help us to better understand the epidemiology of leprosy.

Disseminated bacille Calmette-Guérin disease in HIV-infected South African infants

OBJECTIVE

To determine the population-based incidence of disseminated bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) disease in HIV-infected infants (aged <or= 1 year) in a setting with a high burden of tuberculosis and HIV infection coupled with a well-functioning programme for the prevention of HIV infection in infants.

METHODS

The numerator, or number of new cases of disseminated BCG disease, was derived from multicentre surveillance data collected prospectively on infants with a confirmed HIV infection during 2004-2006. The denominator, or total number of HIV-infected infants who were BCG-vaccinated, was derived from population-based estimates of the number of live infants and from reported maternal HIV infection prevalence, vertical HIV transmission rates and BCG vaccination rates.

FINDINGS

The estimated incidences of disseminated BCG disease per 100 000 BCG-vaccinated, HIV-infected infants were as follows: 778 (95% confidence interval, CI: 361-1319) in 2004 (vertical HIV transmission rate: 10.4%); 1300 (95% CI: 587-2290) in 2005 (transmission rate: 6.1%); and 1013 (95% CI: 377-1895) in 2006 (transmission rate: 5.4%). The pooled incidence over the study period was 992 (95% CI: 567-1495) per 100 000.

CONCLUSION

Multicentre surveillance data showed that the risk of disseminated BCG disease in HIV-infected infants is considerably higher than previously estimated, although likely to be under-estimated. There is an urgent need for data on the risk-benefit ratio of BCG vaccination in HIV-infected infants to inform decision-making in settings where HIV infection and tuberculosis burdens are high. Safe and effective tuberculosis prevention strategies are needed for HIV-infected infants.

Landscape analysis of interactions between nutrition and vaccine responses in children

The world's poorest children are likely to be malnourished when receiving their childhood vaccines. It is uncertain whether this affects vaccine efficacy and whether the coadministration of nutrient supplements with vaccines has beneficial or detrimental effects. More recently, a detrimental interaction between vitamin A (VA) supplementation (VAS) and the killed diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine given in early childhood has been suggested. This report provides a critical review of the published interactions between nutritional status and/or supplementation and vaccine responses in children. Due to an absence of evidence for most nutrients, this analysis focused on protein-energy, vitamins A and D, and iron and zinc. All vaccines were considered. Both observational studies and clinical trials that led to peer-reviewed publications in English or French were included. These criteria led to a pool of 58 studies for protein-energy malnutrition, 43 for VA, 4 for vitamin D, 10 for iron, and 22 for zinc. Our analysis indicates that malnutrition has surprisingly little or no effect on vaccine responses. Evidence for definitive adjunctive effects of micronutrient supplementation at the time of vaccination is also weak. Overall, the paucity, poor quality, and heterogeneity of data make it difficult to draw firm conclusions. The use of simple endpoints that may not correlate strongly with disease protection adds uncertainty. A detailed examination of the immunological mechanisms involved in potential interactions, employing modern methodologies, is therefore required. This would also help us understand the proposed, but still unproven, negative interactions between VAS and vaccine safety, a resolution of which is urgently required.

Epidemiological studies of the 'non-specific effects' of vaccines: I--data collection in observational studies

Routine vaccination programmes have led to substantial declines in the incidence of most of the target diseases. In these circumstances, vaccine effects beyond those on the target diseases may become evident. Several studies have suggested that certain vaccines may influence mortality in low income settings in ways that cannot be attributed to effects on target diseases. Trials of such 'non-specific' effects are difficult if not impossible to organise; and observational studies of them are prone to serious confounding, because those who do or do not receive vaccines are likely to differ in many ways, some of which relate to their subsequent risk of early death, independent of vaccination. They are also prone to other biases, including the selective loss of vaccination records for children who die. We review these potential sources of bias and suggest what and how data may be collected to optimise the validity of such studies.

Population differences in immune responses to Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination in infancy

Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination induces a marked increase in the interferon (IFN)-gamma response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis purified protein derivative (Mtb PPD) in UK adolescents, but not in Malawian adolescents. We hypothesized that Mtb PPD-induced IFN-gamma after BCG vaccination would be similar in infants from these 2 countries. Infants were vaccinated with BCG during the first 3-13 weeks of life. Three months after BCG vaccination, 51 (100%) of 51 UK infants had an IFN-gamma response to Mtb PPD, compared to 41 (53%) of 78 of Malawian infants, in whom responses varied according to their season of birth. We conclude that population differences in immune responses after BCG vaccination are observed among infants, as well as among young adults.

HIV and the risk of tuberculosis due to recent transmission over 12 years in Karonga District, Malawi

Tuberculosis (TB) patients with strains common to other recent cases (‘clustering’) suggest recent transmission. HIV status and age may affect proportions clustered. We investigated TB clustering by HIV and age in a population-based study in Malawi. Among 746 patients, HIV infection increased the proportion clustered. Sex-period-adjusted odds ratios for the association of HIV and clustering were 1.26 (95% CI 0.4–4.1) for ages 15–25 years, 1.40 (0.9–2.3) for 25–50 years and 10.44 (2.3–47.9) for >50 years and remained stable over two periods examined. These results suggest that HIV increases the proportion of TB due to recent transmission in the elderly.

What has Karonga taught us? Tuberculosis studied over three decades

This paper summarises tuberculosis (TB) research over almost 30 years in Karonga District, northern Malawi, an area typical of much of rural Africa. The dominant factor has been the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which arrived in the district about 1980, leading to an increase in TB incidence to a peak of approximately 65 smear-positive pulmonary cases per 100000 population in 2000. Tuberculin surveys indicate annual risks of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection of approximately 1%; thus, most of the population is uninfected and at risk of primary infection and disease. Molecular epidemiological studies demonstrate that about two thirds of TB arises from recent infection, but recognisable recent contact is responsible for only about 10% of disease. By 2001, 57% of TB was directly attributable to HIV, implying that it would have declined were it not for HIV. HIV infection increases the risk of TB most among young adults, and greatly increases the risk of recurrence from new infection after treatment. Mortality rates in the HIV-infected are high, but there is no association of HIV with drug resistance. Other risk factors with relatively smaller effects include age and sex, contact, several genetic polymorphisms and area. Neither one nor two doses of the bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine provides protection against adult pulmonary TB, despite protecting against leprosy. Skin test surveys, cohort studies and comparative immunological studies with the UK suggest that exposure to environmental mycobacteria provides some protection against TB and that BCG's failure is attributable partly to this widespread heterologous exposure masking effects of the vaccine. Drug resistance has remained constant (<10%) over more than 20 years. Immunotherapy with M. vaccae provided no benefits, but treatment of HIV-positive patients with cotrimoxazole reduced mortality. The Karonga programme illustrates the value of long-term population-based studies to investigate the natural history of TB and to influence TB control policy. Current studies focus on immunological markers of infection, disease and protection, and on elucidating the impact of antiretroviral treatment on TB incidence at population level.

Estimating the extent of vaccine-derived poliovirus infection

Background

Eight outbreaks of paralytic polio attributable to circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) have highlighted the risks associated with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use in areas of low vaccination coverage and poor hygiene. As the Polio Eradication Initiative enters its final stages, it is important to consider the extent to which these viruses spread under different conditions, so that appropriate strategies can be devised to prevent or respond to future cVDPV outbreaks.

Methods and Findings

This paper examines epidemiological (temporal, geographic, age, vaccine history, social group, ascertainment), and virological (type, genetic diversity, virulence) parameters in order to infer the numbers of individuals likely to have been infected in each of these cVDPV outbreaks, and in association with single acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases attributable to VDPVs. Although only 114 virologically-confirmed paralytic cases were identified in the eight cVDPV outbreaks, it is likely that a minimum of hundreds of thousands, and more likely several million individuals were infected during these events, and that many thousands more have been infected by VDPV lineages within outbreaks which have escaped detection.

Conclusions

Our estimates of the extent of cVDPV circulation suggest widespread transmission in some countries, as might be expected from endemic wild poliovirus transmission in these same settings. These methods for inferring extent of infection will be useful in the context of identifying future surveillance needs, planning for OPV cessation and preparing outbreak response plans.

Individual, household and community factors associated with HIV test refusal in rural Malawi

OBJECTIVE

To investigate individual, household and community factors associated with HIV test refusal in a counselling and testing programme offered at population level in rural Malawi.

METHODS

HIV counselling and testing was offered to individuals aged 18-59 at their homes. Individual variables were collected by interviews and physical examinations. Household variables were determined as part of a previous census. Multivariate models allowing for household and community clustering were used to assess associations between HIV test refusal and explanatory variables.

RESULTS

Of 2303 eligible adults, 2129 were found and 1443 agreed to HIV testing. Test refusal was less likely by those who were never married [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.50 for men (95% CI 0.32; 0.80) and 0.44 (0.21; 0.91) for women] and by farmers [aOR 0.70 (0.52; 0.96) for men and 0.59 (0.40; 0.87) for women]. A 10% increase in cluster refusal rates increased the odds of refusal by 1.48 (1.32; 1.66) in men and 1.68 (1.32; 2.12) in women. Women counsellors increased the odds of refusal by 1.39 (1.00; 1.92) in men. Predictors of HIV test refusal in women were refusal of the husband as head of household [aOR 15.08 (9.39; 24.21)] and living close to the main road [aOR 6.07 (1.76; 20.98)]. Common reasons for refusal were fear of testing positive, previous HIV test, knowledge of HIV serostatus and the need for more time to think.

CONCLUSION

Successful VCT strategies need to encourage couples counselling and should involve participation of men and communities.

Determinants of cluster size in large, population-based molecular epidemiology study of tuberculosis, northern Malawi

Both epidemiologic and strain-related factors may contribute to large clusters of tuberculosis patients.

Tuberculosis patients with identical strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis are described as clustered. Cluster size may depend on patient or strain characteristics. In a 7-year population-based study of tuberculosis in Karonga District, Malawi, clusters were defined by using IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism, excluding patterns with <5 bands. Spoligotyping was used to compare strains with an international database. Among 682 clustered patients, cluster size ranged from 2 to 37. Male patients, young adults, and town residents were over-represented in large clusters. Cluster size was not associated with HIV status or death from tuberculosis. Spoligotypes from 9 (90%) of 10 large cluster strains were identical or very similar (1 spacer different) to common spoligotypes found elsewhere, compared with 37 (66%) of 56 of those from nonclustered patients (p = 0.3). Large clusters were associated with factors likely to be related to social mixing, but spoligotypes of common strains in this setting were also common types elsewhere, consistent with strain differences in transmissibility.

Comparison of IFN-gamma responses to mycobacterial antigens as markers of response to BCG vaccination

An increase in interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) production to Mycobacterium tuberculosis purified protein derivative (Mtb PPD), as measured in the cultured diluted whole blood assay, is one indicator of a protective immune response to BCG vaccine. We have explored the potential for this assay to be improved by measuring IFN-gamma responses to more defined antigens of M. tuberculosis (short-term and mid-term culture filtrates, ESAT-6, 38 kDa), Mycobacterium bovis (MPB70), M. bovis BCG (Antigen 85) and Mycobacterium leprae (35 kDa), in UK teenagers before and 1 year after BCG vaccination (or no vaccination as controls). There was a significant increase in response to the culture filtrates post-vaccination, but this was no greater than that to Mtb PPD. Many teenagers responded to the purified antigens, in particular to Antigen 85, prior to vaccination, and BCG vaccination could only augment this pre-existing response to a limited extent; prior exposure to environmental mycobacteria can thus induce cross-reactive responses to antigens which complicate interpretation of in vitro assays of vaccine response. In contrast, ESAT-6 was recognised by only one teenager prior to vaccination, and, as expected, responses were not boosted by BCG. We therefore conclude that Mtb PPD is the antigen preparation of choice for assessing the immunogenicity of BCG vaccination.

Implication of new WHO growth standards on identification of risk factors and estimated prevalence of malnutrition in rural Malawian infants

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) released new Child Growth Standards in 2006 to replace the current National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) growth reference. We assessed how switching from the NCHS to the newly released WHO Growth Standards affects the estimated prevalence of wasting, underweight and stunting, and the pattern of risk factors identified.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Data were drawn from a village-informant driven Demographic Surveillance System in Northern Malawi. Children (n = 1328) were visited twice at 0-4 months and 11-15 months. Data were collected on the demographic and socio-economic environment of the child, health history, maternal and child anthropometry and child feeding practices. Weight-for-length, weight-for-age and length-for-age were derived in z-scores using the two growth references. In early infancy, prevalence estimates were 2.9, 6.1, and 8.5 fold higher for stunting, underweight, and wasting respectively using the WHO standards compared to NCHS reference (p<0.001 for all). At one year, prevalence estimates for wasting and stunting did not differ significantly according to reference used, but the prevalence of underweight was half that with the NCHS reference (p<0.001). Patterns of risk factors were similar with the two growth references for all outcomes at one year although the strength of association was higher with WHO standards.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Differences in prevalence estimates differed in magnitude but not direction from previous studies. The scale of these differences depends on the population's nutritional status thus it should not be assumed a priori. The increase in estimated prevalence of wasting in early infancy has implications for feeding programs targeting lactating mothers and ante-natal multiple micronutrients supplementation to tackle small birth size. Risk factors identified using WHO standards remain comparable with findings based on the NCHS reference in similar settings. Further research should aim to identify whether the young infants additionally diagnosed as malnourished by this new standard are more appropriate targets for interventions than those identified with the NCHS reference.

Herpes simplex virus type 2 trends in relation to the HIV epidemic in northern Malawi

OBJECTIVES

It is unclear whether the high prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) found in much of Africa predates the HIV epidemic or is, to some extent, a consequence of it. HSV-2 prevalence trends in a rural African community were assessed over a period in which HIV prevalence rose sharply, and antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance was explored as a method of estimating community HSV-2 prevalence.

METHODS

HSV-2 seroprevalence was determined among community controls seen for case-control studies of mycobacterial disease in Karonga district, Malawi, in 1988-90, 1998-2001 and 2002-5, and in women attending ANC as part of surveillance for HIV in 1999-2000. Over this period HIV prevalence rose from 4% to 12%.

RESULTS

HSV-2 prevalence in all periods increased sharply with age and was higher in women than in men. After excluding migrants, there was no evidence of change in HSV-2 prevalence in the different periods. Women in the ANC group had lower HSV-2 prevalence than those in the community, but the ANC prevalence was a good approximation to the combined male and female prevalence for the same age group.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that HSV-2 was already widespread before the HIV epidemic and has not been greatly influenced by it. It also demonstrates that ANC surveillance may be useful for estimating community HSV-2 prevalence.

Assessment and evaluation of contact as a risk factor for tuberculosis in rural Africa

SETTING

A rural district in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of inaccurate recall on estimates of the proportion of tuberculosis (TB) cases attributable to contact with identifiable prior cases.

DESIGN

Case-control study of laboratory-confirmed TB cases and community controls, comparing family, household and area contacts identified from a database of TB cases with those named at interview. Estimation of prior contact as a risk factor for TB and identified factors associated with being a named contact.

RESULTS

Ninety-five per cent of named contacts were known TB cases. The proportion of total identified contacts who were named at interview was 75%, and was similar for cases and controls. Cases were twice as likely as controls to identify prior contacts. Adding database information did not affect odds ratios, but increased the proportion of TB cases attributable to prior contact. Smear-positive, male and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative TB patients were more likely to be named by subsequent cases. Identifiable recent contact with known smear-positive cases accounted for 12.5% of the TB burden.

CONCLUSIONS

Reporting of putative source contacts showed little evidence of recall bias and gave estimates of the relative risk of TB associated with identifiable contact. The lower likelihood of HIV-positive cases being named as contacts may reflect reduced infectiousness.

Population-level effect of HIV on adult mortality and early evidence of reversal after introduction of antiretroviral therapy in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Malawi, which has about 80,000 deaths from AIDS every year, made free antiretroviral therapy available to more than 80 000 patients between 2004 and 2006. We aimed to investigate mortality in a population before and after the introduction of free antiretroviral therapy, and therefore to assess the effects of such programmes on survival at the population level.

METHODS

We used a demographic surveillance system to measure mortality in a population of 32,000 in northern Malawi, from August, 2002, when free antiretroviral therapy was not available in the study district, until February, 2006, 8 months after a clinic opened. Causes of death were established through verbal autopsies (retrospective interviews). Patients who registered for antiretroviral therapy at the clinic were identified and linked to the population under surveillance. Trends in mortality were analysed by age, sex, cause of death, and zone of residence.

FINDINGS

Before antiretroviral therapy became available in June, 2005, mortality in adults (aged 15-59 years) was 9.8 deaths for 1000 person-years of observation (95% CI 8.9-10.9). The probability of dying between the ages of 15 and 60 years was 43% (39-49) for men and 43% (38-47) for women; 229 of 352 deaths (65.1%) were attributed to AIDS. 8 months after the clinic that provided antiretroviral therapy opened, 107 adults from the study population had accessed treatment, out of an estimated 334 in need of treatment. Overall mortality in adults had decreased by 10% from 10.2 to 8.7 deaths for 1000 person-years of observation (adjusted rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.70-1.14). Mortality was reduced by 35% (adjusted rate ratio 0.65, 0.46-0.92) in adults near the main road, where mortality before antiretroviral therapy was highest (from 13.2 to 8.5 deaths per 1000 person-years of observation before and after antiretroviral therapy). Mortality in adults aged 60 years or older did not change.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings of a reduction in mortality in adults aged between 15 and 59 years, with no change in those older than 60 years, suggests that deaths from AIDS were averted by the rapid scale-up of free antiretroviral therapy in rural Malawi, which led to a decline in adult mortality that was detectable at the population level.

The long-term social and economic impact of HIV on the spouses of infected individuals in northern Malawi

OBJECTIVE

To assess the social and economic impact of HIV-related illness and death on the spouses of HIV-infected individuals.

METHODS

From population-based surveys in the 1980s in Karonga district, northern Malawi, 197 'index individuals' were identified as HIV-positive. A total of 396 HIV-negative 'index individuals' were selected as a comparison group. These individuals, and their spouses and children, were followed up in 1998-2000, in a retrospective cohort study. All analyses compared spouses of HIV-positive indexes with those of HIV-negative indexes.

RESULTS

By 1998-2000, most marriages involving an HIV-positive index individual had ended in widowhood. Twenty-Six percent of the wives of HIV-positive index men experienced household dissolution precipitated by widowhood, compared with 5% of the wives of HIV-negative index men. Corresponding percentages for husbands of index women were 14% and 1%. Widow inheritance was uncommon. The remarriage rate among separated or widowed wives of HIV-positive index men was half that of such wives of HIV-negative index men. About 30% of surviving wives of HIV-positive index men were household heads at the time of follow-up, compared with 5% of such wives of HIV-negative index men. Almost all these women were widows who lost their husband when >35 years old, and they had relatively few household assets.

CONCLUSIONS

The social and economic impact of HIV on the spouses of HIV-infected individuals in rural northern Malawi is substantial. Interventions that strengthen society's ability to absorb and support widows and widowers, and their dependents, without necessarily involving the traditional coping mechanism of remarriage, are essential.

Persistence of the immune response induced by BCG vaccination

Background

Although BCG vaccination is recommended in most countries of the world, little is known of the persistence of BCG-induced immune responses. As novel TB vaccines may be given to boost the immunity induced by neonatal BCG vaccination, evidence concerning the persistence of the BCG vaccine-induced response would help inform decisions about when such boosting would be most effective.

Methods

A randomised control study of UK adolescents was carried out to investigate persistence of BCG immune responses. Adolescents were tested for interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis purified protein derivative (M.tb PPD) in a whole blood assay before, 3 months, 12 months (n = 148) and 3 years (n = 19) after receiving teenage BCG vaccination or 14 years after receiving infant BCG vaccination (n = 16).

Results

A gradual reduction in magnitude of response was evident from 3 months to 1 year and from 1 year to 3 years following teenage vaccination, but responses 3 years after vaccination were still on average 6 times higher than before vaccination among vaccinees. Some individuals (11/86; 13%) failed to make a detectable antigen-specific response three months after vaccination, or lost the response after 1 (11/86; 13%) or 3 (3/19; 16%) years. IFN-γ response to Ag85 was measured in a subgroup of adolescents and appeared to be better maintained with no decline from 3 to 12 months. A smaller group of adolescents were tested 14 years after receiving infant BCG vaccination and 13/16 (81%) made a detectable IFN-γ response to M.tb PPD 14 years after infant vaccination as compared to 6/16 (38%) matched unvaccinated controls (p = 0.012); teenagers vaccinated in infancy were 19 times more likely to make an IFN-γ response of > 500 pg/ml than unvaccinated teenagers.

Conclusion

BCG vaccination in infancy and adolescence induces immunological memory to mycobacterial antigens that is still present and measurable for at least 14 years in the majority of vaccinees, although the magnitude of the peripheral blood response wanes from 3 months to 12 months and from 12 months to 3 years post vaccination. The data presented here suggest that because of such waning in the response there may be scope for boosting anti-tuberculous immunity in BCG vaccinated children anytime from 3 months post-vaccination. This supports the prime boost strategies being employed for some new TB vaccines currently under development.

Population differences in death rates in HIV-positive patients with tuberculosis

SETTING

Randomised controlled clinical trial of Mycobacterium vaccae vaccination as an adjunct to anti-tuberculosis treatment in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive patients with smear-positive tuberculosis (TB) in Lusaka, Zambia, and Karonga, Malawi.

OBJECTIVE

To explain the difference in mortality between the two trial sites and to identify risk factors for death among HIV-positive patients with TB.

DESIGN

Information on demographic, clinical, laboratory and radiographic characteristics was collected. Patients in Lusaka (667) and in Karonga (84) were followed up for an average of 1.56 years. Cox proportional hazard analyses were used to assess differences in survival between the two sites and to determine risk factors associated with mortality during and after anti-tuberculosis treatment.

RESULTS

The case fatality rate was 14.7% in Lusaka and 21.4% in Karonga. The hazard ratio for death comparing Karonga to Lusaka was 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9-2.4) during treatment and 1.76 (95%CI 1.0-3.0) after treatment. This difference could be almost entirely explained by age and more advanced HIV disease among patients in Karonga.

CONCLUSION

It is important to understand the reasons for population differences in mortality among patients with TB and HIV and to maximise efforts to reduce mortality.

Limited impact of tuberculosis control in Hong Kong: attributable to high risks of reactivation disease

Over 50% of the global burden of tuberculosis occurs in South East Asia and the Western Pacific. Since 1950, notification rates in high-income countries in these settings have declined slowly and have remained over ten-fold greater than those in Western populations. The reasons for the slow decline are poorly understood. Using an age-structured model describing the incidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and disease applied to notification data from Hong Kong, we illustrate that in Hong Kong, a high prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection among older individuals and a high risk of disease through reactivation (e.g. up to 17-fold greater than that estimated for infected males in the United Kingdom) may explain this slow decline. If this feature of the epidemiology of tuberculosis is widespread, the WHO directly observed treatment short-course (DOTS) strategy may have a smaller impact in Asia in the short term than has been implied by recent predictions, all of which have been based on disease risk estimates derived from Western Europe. As a result, it may be difficult to meet the targets for tuberculosis control, which have been prescribed by the UN Millennium Development Goals.

HIV epidemic trend and antiretroviral treatment need in Karonga District, Malawi

We describe the development of the HIV epidemic in Karonga District, Malawi over 22 years using data from population surveys and community samples. These data are used to estimate the trend in HIV prevalence, incidence and need for antiretroviral treatment (ART) using a simple mathematical model. HIV prevalence rose quickly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, stabilizing at around 12% in the mid-1990s. Estimated annual HIV incidence rose quickly, peaking in the early 1990s at 2.2% among males and 3.1% among females, and then levelled off at 1.3% among males and 1.1% among females by the late 1990s. Assuming a 2-year eligibility period, both our model and the UNAIDS models predicted 2.1% of adults were in need of ART in 2005. This prediction was sensitive to the assumed eligibility period, ranging from 1.6% to 2.6% if the eligibility period was instead assumed to be 1.5 or 2.5 years, respectively.