Pooled Population Pharmacokinetic Analysis and Dose Recommendations for Ciprofloxacin in Intensive Care Unit Patients with Obesity

Recent studies have explored the influence of obesity and critical illness on ciprofloxacin pharmacokinetics. However, variation across the subpopulation of individuals with obesity admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with varying renal function remains unexamined. This study aims to characterize ciprofloxacin pharmacokinetics in ICU patients with obesity and provide dose recommendations for this special population. Individual patient data of 34 ICU patients with obesity (BMI >30 kg/m2) from four studies evaluating ciprofloxacin pharmacokinetics in ICU patients were pooled and combined with data from a study involving 10 individuals with obesity undergoing bariatric surgery. All samples were collected after intravenous administration. Non-linear mixed effects modeling and simulation were used to develop a population pharmacokinetic model and describe ciprofloxacin exposure in plasma. Model-based dose evaluations were performed using a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic target of AUC/MIC >125. The data from patients with BMI ranging from 30.2 to 58.1 were best described by a two-compartment model with first-order elimination and a proportional error model. The inclusion of Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) as a covariate on clearance reduced inter-individual variability from 57.3% to 38.5% (P < .001). Neither body weight nor ICU admission significantly influenced clearance or volume of distribution. Renal function is a viable predictor for ciprofloxacin clearance in ICU patients with obesity, while critical illness and body weight do not significantly alter clearance. As such, body weight and critical illness do not need to be accounted for when dosing ciprofloxacin in ICU patients with obesity. Individuals with CKD-EPI >60 mL/min/1.73 m2 may require higher dosages for the treatment of pathogens with minimal inhibitory concentration ≥0.25 mg/L.

Comparative performance of intensive care mortality prediction models based on manually curated versus automatically extracted electronic health record data

INTRODUCTION

Benchmarking intensive care units for audit and feedback is frequently based on comparing actual mortality versus predicted mortality. Traditionally, mortality prediction models rely on a limited number of input variables and significant manual data entry and curation. Using automatically extracted electronic health record data may be a promising alternative. However, adequate data on comparative performance between these approaches is currently lacking.

METHODS

The AmsterdamUMCdb intensive care database was used to construct a baseline APACHE IV in-hospital mortality model based on data typically available through manual data curation. Subsequently, new in-hospital mortality models were systematically developed and evaluated. New models differed with respect to the extent of automatic variable extraction, classification method, recalibration usage and the size of collection window.

RESULTS

A total of 13 models were developed based on data from 5,077 admissions divided into a train (80%) and test (20%) cohort. Adding variables or extending collection windows only marginally improved discrimination and calibration. An XGBoost model using only automatically extracted variables, and therefore no acute or chronic diagnoses, was the best performing automated model with an AUC of 0.89 and a Brier score of 0.10.

DISCUSSION

Performance of intensive care mortality prediction models based on manually curated versus automatically extracted electronic health record data is similar. Importantly, our results suggest that variables typically requiring manual curation, such as diagnosis at admission and comorbidities, may not be necessary for accurate mortality prediction. These proof-of-concept results require replication using multi-centre data.

Reinforcement learning for intensive care medicine: actionable clinical insights from novel approaches to reward shaping and off-policy model evaluation

BACKGROUND

Reinforcement learning (RL) holds great promise for intensive care medicine given the abundant availability of data and frequent sequential decision-making. But despite the emergence of promising algorithms, RL driven bedside clinical decision support is still far from reality. Major challenges include trust and safety. To help address these issues, we introduce cross off-policy evaluation and policy restriction and show how detailed policy analysis may increase clinical interpretability. As an example, we apply these in the setting of RL to optimise ventilator settings in intubated covid-19 patients.

METHODS

With data from the Dutch ICU Data Warehouse and using an exhaustive hyperparameter grid search, we identified an optimal set of Dueling Double-Deep Q Network RL models. The state space comprised ventilator, medication, and clinical data. The action space focused on positive end-expiratory pressure (peep) and fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) concentration. We used gas exchange indices as interim rewards, and mortality and state duration as final rewards. We designed a novel evaluation method called cross off-policy evaluation (OPE) to assess the efficacy of models under varying weightings between the interim and terminal reward components. In addition, we implemented policy restriction to prevent potentially hazardous model actions. We introduce delta-Q to compare physician versus policy action quality and in-depth policy inspection using visualisations.

RESULTS

We created trajectories for 1118 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and trained 69,120 models using 8 model architectures with 128 hyperparameter combinations. For each model, policy restrictions were applied. In the first evaluation step, 17,182/138,240 policies had good performance, but cross-OPE revealed suboptimal performance for 44% of those by varying the reward function used for evaluation. Clinical policy inspection facilitated assessment of action decisions for individual patients, including identification of action space regions that may benefit most from optimisation.

CONCLUSION

Cross-OPE can serve as a robust evaluation framework for safe RL model implementation by identifying policies with good generalisability. Policy restriction helps prevent potentially unsafe model recommendations. Finally, the novel delta-Q metric can be used to operationalise RL models in clinical practice. Our findings offer a promising pathway towards application of RL in intensive care medicine and beyond.

Does Reinforcement Learning Improve Outcomes for Critically Ill Patients? A Systematic Review and Level-of-Readiness Assessment

OBJECTIVE

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a machine learning technique uniquely effective at sequential decision-making, which makes it potentially relevant to ICU treatment challenges. We set out to systematically review, assess level-of-readiness and meta-analyze the effect of RL on outcomes for critically ill patients.

DATA SOURCES

A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Embase.com, Clarivate Analytics/Web of Science Core Collection, Elsevier/SCOPUS and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Xplore Digital Library from inception to March 25, 2022, with subsequent citation tracking.

DATA EXTRACTION

Journal articles that used an RL technique in an ICU population and reported on patient health-related outcomes were included for full analysis. Conference papers were included for level-of-readiness assessment only. Descriptive statistics, characteristics of the models, outcome compared with clinician's policy and level-of-readiness were collected. RL-health risk of bias and applicability assessment was performed.

DATA SYNTHESIS

A total of 1,033 articles were screened, of which 18 journal articles and 18 conference papers, were included. Thirty of those were prototyping or modeling articles and six were validation articles. All articles reported RL algorithms to outperform clinical decision-making by ICU professionals, but only in retrospective data. The modeling techniques for the state-space, action-space, reward function, RL model training, and evaluation varied widely. The risk of bias was high in all articles, mainly due to the evaluation procedure.

CONCLUSION

In this first systematic review on the application of RL in intensive care medicine we found no studies that demonstrated improved patient outcomes from RL-based technologies. All studies reported that RL-agent policies outperformed clinician policies, but such assessments were all based on retrospective off-policy evaluation.

Augmented intelligence facilitates concept mapping across different electronic health records

INTRODUCTION

With the advent of artificial intelligence, the secondary use of routinely collected medical data from electronic healthcare records (EHR) has become increasingly popular. However, different EHR systems typically use different names for the same medical concepts. This obviously hampers scalable model development and subsequent clinical implementation for decision support. Therefore, converting original parameter names to a so-called ontology, a standardized set of predefined concepts, is necessary but time-consuming and labor-intensive. We therefore propose an augmented intelligence approach to facilitate ontology alignment by predicting correct concepts based on parameter names from raw electronic health record data exports.

METHODS

We used the manually mapped parameter names from the multicenter "Dutch ICU data warehouse against COVID-19" sourced from three types of EHR systems to train machine learning models for concept mapping. Data from 29 intensive care units on 38,824 parameters mapped to 1,679 relevant and unique concepts and 38,069 parameters labeled as irrelevant were used for model development and validation. We used the Natural Language Toolkit (NLTK) to preprocess the parameter names based on WordNet cognitive synonyms transformed by term-frequency inverse document frequency (TF-IDF), yielding numeric features. We then trained linear classifiers using stochastic gradient descent for multi-class prediction. Finally, we fine-tuned these predictions using information on distributions of the data associated with each parameter name through similarity score and skewness comparisons.

RESULTS

The initial model, trained using data from one hospital organization for each of three EHR systems, scored an overall top 1 precision of 0.744, recall of 0.771, and F1-score of 0.737 on a total of 58,804 parameters. Leave-one-hospital-out analysis returned an average top 1 recall of 0.680 for relevant parameters, which increased to 0.905 for the top 5 predictions. When reducing the training dataset to only include relevant parameters, top 1 recall was 0.811 and top 5 recall was 0.914 for relevant parameters. Performance improvement based on similarity score or skewness comparisons affected at most 5.23% of numeric parameters.

CONCLUSION

Augmented intelligence is a promising method to improve concept mapping of parameter names from raw electronic health record data exports. We propose a robust method for mapping data across various domains, facilitating the integration of diverse data sources. However, recall is not perfect, and therefore manual validation of mapping remains essential.

Determining and assessing characteristics of data element names impacting the performance of annotation using Usagi

INTRODUCTION

Hospitals generate large amounts of data and this data is generally modeled and labeled in a proprietary way, hampering its exchange and integration. Manually annotating data element names to internationally standardized data element identifiers is a time-consuming effort. Tools can support performing this task automatically. This study aimed to determine what factors influence the quality of automatic annotations.

METHODS

Data element names were used from the Dutch COVID-19 ICU Data Warehouse containing data on intensive care patients with COVID-19 from 25 hospitals in the Netherlands. In this data warehouse, the data had been merged using a proprietary terminology system while also storing the original hospital labels (synonymous names). Usagi, an OHDSI annotation tool, was used to perform the annotation for the data. A gold standard was used to determine if Usagi made correct annotations. Logistic regression was used to determine if the number of characters, number of words, match score (Usagi's certainty) and hospital label origin influenced Usagi's performance to annotate correctly.

RESULTS

Usagi automatically annotated 30.5% of the data element names correctly and 5.5% of the synonymous names. The match score is the best predictor for Usagi finding the correct annotation. It was determined that the AUC of data element names was 0.651 and 0.752 for the synonymous names respectively. The AUC for the individual hospital label origins varied between 0.460 to 0.905.

DISCUSSION

The results show that Usagi performed better to annotate the data element names than the synonymous names. The hospital origin in the synonymous names dataset was associated with the amount of correctly annotated concepts. Hospitals that performed better had shorter synonymous names and fewer words. Using shorter data element names or synonymous names should be considered to optimize the automatic annotating process. Overall, the performance of Usagi is too poor to completely rely on for automatic annotation.

Prognostic models of in-hospital mortality of intensive care patients using neural representation of unstructured text: A systematic review and critical appraisal

OBJECTIVE

To review and critically appraise published and preprint reports of prognostic models of in-hospital mortality of patients in the intensive-care unit (ICU) based on neural representations (embeddings) of clinical notes.

METHODS

PubMed and arXiv were searched up to August 1, 2022. At least two reviewers independently selected the studies that developed a prognostic model of in-hospital mortality of intensive-care patients using free-text represented as embeddings and extracted data using the CHARMS checklist. Risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. Reporting on the model was assessed with the TRIPOD guideline. To assess the machine learning components that were used in the models, we present a new descriptive framework based on different techniques to represent text and provide predictions from text. The study protocol was registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42022354602).

RESULTS

Eighteen studies out of 2,825 were included. All studies used the publicly-available MIMIC dataset. Context-independent word embeddings are widely used. Model discrimination was provided by all studies (AUROC 0.75-0.96), but measures of calibration were scarce. Seven studies used both structural clinical variables and notes. Model discrimination improved when adding clinical notes to variables. None of the models was externally validated and often a simple train/test split was used for internal validation. Our critical appraisal demonstrated a high risk of bias in all studies and concerns regarding their applicability in clinical practice.

CONCLUSION

All studies used a neural architecture for prediction and were based on one publicly available dataset. Clinical notes were reported to improve predictive performance when used in addition to only clinical variables. Most studies had methodological, reporting, and applicability issues. We recommend reporting both model discrimination and calibration, using additional data sources, and using more robust evaluation strategies, including prospective and external validation. Finally, sharing data and code is encouraged to improve study reproducibility.

A guide to sharing open healthcare data under the General Data Protection Regulation

Sharing healthcare data is increasingly essential for developing data-driven improvements in patient care at the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). However, it is also very challenging under the strict privacy legislation of the European Union (EU). Therefore, we explored four successful open ICU healthcare databases to determine how open healthcare data can be shared appropriately in the EU. A questionnaire was constructed based on the Delphi method. Then, follow-up questions were discussed with experts from the four databases. These experts encountered similar challenges and regarded ethical and legal aspects to be the most challenging. Based on the approaches of the databases, expert opinion, and literature research, we outline four distinct approaches to openly sharing healthcare data, each with varying implications regarding data security, ease of use, sustainability, and implementability. Ultimately, we formulate seven recommendations for sharing open healthcare data to guide future initiatives in sharing open healthcare data to improve patient care and advance healthcare.

Assessing the FAIRness of databases on the EHDEN portal: A case study on two Dutch ICU databases

OBJECTIVE

To address the growing need for effective data reuse in health research, healthcare institutions need to make their data Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR). A prevailing method to model databases for interoperability is the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (CDM), developed by the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) initiative. A European repository for OMOP CDM-converted databases called the "European Health Data & Evidence Network (EHDEN) portal" was developed, aiming to make these databases Findable and Accessible. This paper aims to assess the FAIRness of databases on the EHDEN portal.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Two researchers involved in the OMOP CDM conversion of separate Dutch Intensive Care Unit (ICU) research databases each manually assessed their own database using seventeen metrics. These were defined by the FAIRsFAIR project as a list of minimum requirements for a database to be FAIR. Each metric is given a score from zero to four based on how well the database adheres to the metric. The maximum score for each metric varies from one to four based on the importance of the metric.

RESULTS

Fourteen out of the seventeen metrics were unanimously rated: seven were rated the highest score, one was rated half of the highest score, and five were rated the lowest score. The remaining three metrics were assessed differently for the two use cases. The total scores achieved were 15.5 and 12 out of a maximum of 25.

CONCLUSION

The main omissions in supporting FAIRness were the lack of globally unique identifiers such as Uniform Resource Identifiers (URIs) in the OMOP CDM and the lack of metadata standardization and linkage in the EHDEN portal. By implementing these in future updates, the EHDEN portal can be more FAIR.

Predicting Readmission or Death After Discharge From the ICU: External Validation and Retraining of a Machine Learning Model

OBJECTIVES

Many machine learning (ML) models have been developed for application in the ICU, but few models have been subjected to external validation. The performance of these models in new settings therefore remains unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of an existing decision support tool based on a ML model predicting readmission or death within 7 days after ICU discharge before, during, and after retraining and recalibration.

DESIGN

A gradient boosted ML model was developed and validated on electronic health record data from 2004 to 2021. We performed an independent validation of this model on electronic health record data from 2011 to 2019 from a different tertiary care center.

SETTING

Two ICUs in tertiary care centers in The Netherlands.

PATIENTS

Adult patients who were admitted to the ICU and stayed for longer than 12 hours.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We assessed discrimination by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration (slope and intercept). We retrained and recalibrated the original model and assessed performance via a temporal validation design. The final retrained model was cross-validated on all data from the new site. Readmission or death within 7 days after ICU discharge occurred in 577 of 10,052 ICU admissions (5.7%) at the new site. External validation revealed moderate discrimination with an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.76). Retrained models showed improved discrimination with AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.82) for the final validation model. Calibration was poor initially and good after recalibration via isotonic regression.

CONCLUSIONS

In this era of expanding availability of ML models, external validation and retraining are key steps to consider before applying ML models to new settings. Clinicians and decision-makers should take this into account when considering applying new ML models to their local settings.

INCIDENCE, RISK FACTORS, AND OUTCOME OF SUSPECTED CENTRAL VENOUS CATHETER-RELATED INFECTIONS IN CRITICALLY ILL COVID-19 PATIENTS: A MULTICENTER RETROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY

ABSTRACT

Background: Aims of this study were to investigate the prevalence and incidence of catheter-related infection, identify risk factors, and determine the relation of catheter-related infection with mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of central venous catheters (CVCs) in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Eligible CVC insertions required an indwelling time of at least 48 hours and were identified using a full-admission electronic health record database. Risk factors were identified using logistic regression. Differences in survival rates at day 28 of follow-up were assessed using a log-rank test and proportional hazard model. Results: In 538 patients, a total of 914 CVCs were included. Prevalence and incidence of suspected catheter-related infection were 7.9% and 9.4 infections per 1,000 catheter indwelling days, respectively. Prone ventilation for more than 5 days was associated with increased risk of suspected catheter-related infection; odds ratio, 5.05 (95% confidence interval 2.12-11.0). Risk of death was significantly higher in patients with suspected catheter-related infection (hazard ratio, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-2.53). Conclusions: This study shows that in critically ill patients with COVID-19, prevalence and incidence of suspected catheter-related infection are high, prone ventilation is a risk factor, and mortality is higher in case of catheter-related infection.

Predicting responders to prone positioning in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19 using machine learning

Background

For mechanically ventilated critically ill COVID-19 patients, prone positioning has quickly become an important treatment strategy, however, prone positioning is labor intensive and comes with potential adverse effects. Therefore, identifying which critically ill intubated COVID-19 patients will benefit may help allocate labor resources.

Methods

From the multi-center Dutch Data Warehouse of COVID-19 ICU patients from 25 hospitals, we selected all 3619 episodes of prone positioning in 1142 invasively mechanically ventilated patients. We excluded episodes longer than 24 h. Berlin ARDS criteria were not formally documented. We used supervised machine learning algorithms Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine and Extreme Gradient Boosting on readily available and clinically relevant features to predict success of prone positioning after 4 h (window of 1 to 7 h) based on various possible outcomes. These outcomes were defined as improvements of at least 10% in PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio, ventilatory ratio, respiratory system compliance, or mechanical power. Separate models were created for each of these outcomes. Re-supination within 4 h after pronation was labeled as failure. We also developed models using a 20 mmHg improvement cut-off for PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio and using a combined outcome parameter. For all models, we evaluated feature importance expressed as contribution to predictive performance based on their relative ranking.

Results

The median duration of prone episodes was 17 h (11–20, median and IQR, N = 2632). Despite extensive modeling using a plethora of machine learning techniques and a large number of potentially clinically relevant features, discrimination between responders and non-responders remained poor with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.62 for PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio using Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. Feature importance was inconsistent between models for different outcomes. Notably, not even being a previous responder to prone positioning, or PEEP-levels before prone positioning, provided any meaningful contribution to predicting a successful next proning episode.

Conclusions

In mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients, predicting the success of prone positioning using clinically relevant and readily available parameters from electronic health records is currently not feasible. Given the current evidence base, a liberal approach to proning in all patients with severe COVID-19 ARDS is therefore justified and in particular regardless of previous results of proning.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-022-01070-0.

Intravenous fluid therapy in perioperative and critical care setting-Knowledge test and practice: An international cross-sectional survey

PURPOSE

In the absence of recent international recommendations supported by scientific societies like Anesthesiology or Intensive Care Medicine, healthcare professionals (HCP) knowledge on IV fluid is expected to vary. We undertook a cross-sectional survey, aiming to assess prescription patterns and test the knowledge of HCP for IV fluid use in the operating room (OR) and intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

An online international cross-sectional survey was conducted between October 20, 2019, and November 27, 2021. The survey included multiple-choice questions on demographics, practice patterns and knowledge of IV fluids, and a hemodynamically unstable patient assessment.

RESULTS

1045 HCP, from 97 countries responded to the survey. Nearly three-quarters reported the non-existence of internal hospital or ICU-based guidelines on IV fluids. The respondents' mean score on the knowledge assessment questions was 46.4 ± 14.4. The cumulative mean scores were significantly higher among those supervising trainees (p = 0.02), specialists (p < 0.001) and those working in high-income (p < 0.001) countries. Overall performance of respondents on the knowledge testing for IV fluid was unsatisfactory with only 6.5% respondents performed above average.

CONCLUSION

There is a wide difference in the knowledge and prescription of IV fluids among the HCP surveyed. These findings reflect the urgent need for education on IV fluids.

Assess and validate predictive performance of models for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients: A retrospective cohort study in the Netherlands comparing the value of registry data with high-granular electronic health records

PURPOSE

To assess, validate and compare the predictive performance of models for in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) over two different waves of infections. Our models were built with high-granular Electronic Health Records (EHR) data versus less-granular registry data.

METHODS

Observational study of all COVID-19 patients admitted to 19 Dutch ICUs participating in both the national quality registry National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) and the EHR-based Dutch Data Warehouse (hereafter EHR). Multiple models were developed on data from the first 24 h of ICU admissions from February to June 2020 (first COVID-19 wave) and validated on prospective patients admitted to the same ICUs between July and December 2020 (second COVID-19 wave). We assessed model discrimination, calibration, and the degree of relatedness between development and validation population. Coefficients were used to identify relevant risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 1533 patients from the EHR and 1563 from the registry were included. With high granular EHR data, the average AUROC was 0.69 (standard deviation of 0.05) for the internal validation, and the AUROC was 0.75 for the temporal validation. The registry model achieved an average AUROC of 0.76 (standard deviation of 0.05) in the internal validation and 0.77 in the temporal validation. In the EHR data, age, and respiratory-system related variables were the most important risk factors identified. In the NICE registry data, age and chronic respiratory insufficiency were the most important risk factors.

CONCLUSION

In our study, prognostic models built on less-granular but readily-available registry data had similar performance to models built on high-granular EHR data and showed similar transportability to a prospective COVID-19 population. Future research is needed to verify whether this finding can be confirmed for upcoming waves.

Right dose, right now: bedside, real-time, data-driven, and personalised antibiotic dosing in critically ill patients with sepsis or septic shock—a two-centre randomised clinical trial

Background

Adequate antibiotic dosing may improve outcomes in critically ill patients but is challenging due to altered and variable pharmacokinetics. To address this challenge, AutoKinetics was developed, a decision support system for bedside, real-time, data-driven and personalised antibiotic dosing. This study evaluates the feasibility, safety and efficacy of its clinical implementation.

Methods

In this two-centre randomised clinical trial, critically ill patients with sepsis or septic shock were randomised to AutoKinetics dosing or standard dosing for four antibiotics: vancomycin, ciprofloxacin, meropenem, and ceftriaxone. Adult patients with a confirmed or suspected infection and either lactate > 2 mmol/L or vasopressor requirement were eligible for inclusion. The primary outcome was pharmacokinetic target attainment in the first 24 h after randomisation. Clinical endpoints included mortality, ICU length of stay and incidence of acute kidney injury.

Results

After inclusion of 252 patients, the study was stopped early due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the ciprofloxacin intervention group, the primary outcome was obtained in 69% compared to 3% in the control group (OR 62.5, CI 11.4–1173.78, p < 0.001). Furthermore, target attainment was faster (26 h, CI 18–42 h, p < 0.001) and better (65% increase, CI 49–84%, p < 0.001). For the other antibiotics, AutoKinetics dosing did not improve target attainment. Clinical endpoints were not significantly different. Importantly, higher dosing did not lead to increased mortality or renal failure.

Conclusions

In critically ill patients, personalised dosing was feasible, safe and significantly improved target attainment for ciprofloxacin.

Trial registration: The trial was prospectively registered at Netherlands Trial Register (NTR), NL6501/NTR6689 on 25 August 2017 and at the European Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT), 2017-002478-37 on 6 November 2017.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-022-04098-7.

Co-infection and ICU-acquired infection in COIVD-19 ICU patients: a secondary analysis of the UNITE-COVID data set

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic presented major challenges for critical care facilities worldwide. Infections which develop alongside or subsequent to viral pneumonitis are a challenge under sporadic and pandemic conditions; however, data have suggested that patterns of these differ between COVID-19 and other viral pneumonitides. This secondary analysis aimed to explore patterns of co-infection and intensive care unit-acquired infections (ICU-AI) and the relationship to use of corticosteroids in a large, international cohort of critically ill COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

This is a multicenter, international, observational study, including adult patients with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis admitted to ICUs at the peak of wave one of COVID-19 (February 15th to May 15th, 2020). Data collected included investigator-assessed co-infection at ICU admission, infection acquired in ICU, infection with multi-drug resistant organisms (MDRO) and antibiotic use. Frequencies were compared by Pearson's Chi-squared and continuous variables by Mann-Whitney U test. Propensity score matching for variables associated with ICU-acquired infection was undertaken using R library MatchIT using the "full" matching method.

RESULTS

Data were available from 4994 patients. Bacterial co-infection at admission was detected in 716 patients (14%), whilst 85% of patients received antibiotics at that stage. ICU-AI developed in 2715 (54%). The most common ICU-AI was bacterial pneumonia (44% of infections), whilst 9% of patients developed fungal pneumonia; 25% of infections involved MDRO. Patients developing infections in ICU had greater antimicrobial exposure than those without such infections. Incident density (ICU-AI per 1000 ICU days) was in considerable excess of reports from pre-pandemic surveillance. Corticosteroid use was heterogenous between ICUs. In univariate analysis, 58% of patients receiving corticosteroids and 43% of those not receiving steroids developed ICU-AI. Adjusting for potential confounders in the propensity-matched cohort, 71% of patients receiving corticosteroids developed ICU-AI vs 52% of those not receiving corticosteroids. Duration of corticosteroid therapy was also associated with development of ICU-AI and infection with an MDRO.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with severe COVID-19 in the first wave, co-infection at admission to ICU was relatively rare but antibiotic use was in substantial excess to that indication. ICU-AI were common and were significantly associated with use of corticosteroids. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04836065 (retrospectively registered April 8th 2021).

Ischaemic electrocardiogram patterns and its association with survival in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: a COACT trials’ post-hoc subgroup analysis

Aims

ST-depression and T-wave inversion are frequently present on the post-resuscitation electrocardiogram (ECG). However, the prognostic value of ischaemic ECG patterns is unknown.

Methods and results

In this post-hoc subgroup analysis of the Coronary Angiography after Cardiac arrest (COACT) trial, the first in-hospital post-resuscitation ECG in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients with a shockable rhythm was analysed for ischaemic ECG patterns. Ischaemia was defined as ST-depression of ≥0.1 mV, T-wave inversion in ≥2 contiguous leads, or both. The primary endpoint was 90-day survival. Secondary endpoints were rate of acute unstable lesions, levels of serum troponin-T, and left ventricular function. Of the 510 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients, 340 (66.7%) patients had ischaemic ECG patterns. Patients with ischaemic ECG patterns had a worse 90-day survival compared with those without [hazard ratio 1.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–2.12; P = 0.02]. A higher sum of ST-depression was associated with lower survival (log-rank = 0.01). The rate of acute unstable lesions (14.5 vs. 15.8%; odds ratio 0.90; 95% CI 0.51–1.59) did not differ between the groups. In patients with ischaemic ECG patterns, maximum levels of serum troponin-T (μg/L) were higher [0.595 (interquartile range 0.243–1.430) vs. 0.359 (0.159–0.845); ratio of geometric means 1.58; 1.13–2.20] and left ventricular function (%) was worse (44.7 ± 12.5 vs. 49.9 ± 13.3; mean difference −5.13; 95% CI −8.84 to −1.42). Adjusted for age and time to return of spontaneous circulation, ischaemic ECG patterns were no longer associated with survival.

Conclusion

Post-arrest ischaemic ECG patterns were associated with worse 90-day survival. A higher sum of ST-depression was associated with lower survival. Adjusted for age and time to return of spontaneous circulation, ischaemic ECG patterns were no longer associated with survival.

Pooled Population Pharmacokinetic Analysis for Exploring Ciprofloxacin Pharmacokinetic Variability in Intensive Care Patients

Background and Objective

Previous pharmacokinetic (PK) studies of ciprofloxacin in intensive care (ICU) patients have shown large differences in estimated PK parameters, suggesting that further investigation is needed for this population. Hence, we performed a pooled population PK analysis of ciprofloxacin after intravenous administration using individual patient data from three studies. Additionally, we studied the PK differences between these studies through a post-hoc analysis.

Methods

Individual patient data from three studies (study 1, 2, and 3) were pooled. The pooled data set consisted of 1094 ciprofloxacin concentration–time data points from 140 ICU patients. Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling was used to develop a population PK model. Covariates were selected following a stepwise covariate modeling procedure. To analyze PK differences between the three original studies, random samples were drawn from the posterior distribution of individual PK parameters. These samples were used for a simulation study comparing PK exposure and the percentage of target attainment between patients of these studies.

Results

A two-compartment model with first-order elimination best described the data. Inter-individual variability was added to the clearance, central volume, and peripheral volume. Inter-occasion variability was added to clearance only. Body weight was added to all parameters allometrically. Estimated glomerular filtration rate on ciprofloxacin clearance was identified as the only covariate relationship resulting in a drop in inter-individual variability of clearance from 58.7 to 47.2%. In the post-hoc analysis, clearance showed the highest deviation between the three studies with a coefficient of variation of 14.3% for posterior mean and 24.1% for posterior inter-individual variability. The simulation study showed that following the same dose regimen of 400 mg three times daily, the area under the concentration–time curve of study 3 was the highest with a mean area under the concentration–time curve at 24 h of 58 mg·h/L compared with that of 47.7 mg·h/L for study 1 and 47.6 mg·h/L for study 2. Similar differences were also observed in the percentage of target attainment, defined as the ratio of area under the concentration–time curve at 24 h and the minimum inhibitory concentration. At the epidemiological cut-off minimum inhibitory concentration of Pseudomonas aeruginosa of 0.5 mg/L, percentage of target attainment was only 21%, 18%, and 38% for study 1, 2, and 3, respectively.

Conclusions

We developed a population PK model of ciprofloxacin in ICU patients using pooled data of individual patients from three studies. A simple ciprofloxacin dose recommendation for the entire ICU population remains challenging owing to the PK differences within ICU patients, hence dose individualization may be needed for the optimization of ciprofloxacin treatment.

The Potential Cost-Effectiveness of a Machine Learning Tool That Can Prevent Untimely Intensive Care Unit Discharge

OBJECTIVES

The machine learning prediction model Pacmed Critical (PC), currently under development, may guide intensivists in their decision-making process on the most appropriate time to discharge a patient from the intensive care unit (ICU). Given the financial pressure on healthcare budgets, this study assessed whether PC has the potential to be cost-effective compared with standard care, without the use of PC, for Dutch patients in the ICU from a societal perspective.

METHODS

A 1-year, 7-state Markov model reflecting the ICU care pathway and incorporating the PC decision tool was developed. A hypothetical cohort of 1000 adult Dutch patients admitted in the ICU was entered in the model. We used the literature, expert opinion, and data from Amsterdam University Medical Center for model parameters. The uncertainty surrounding the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses.

RESULTS

PC was a cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €18 507 per quality-adjusted life-year. PC remained cost-effective over standard care in multiple scenarios and sensitivity analyses. The likelihood that PC will be cost-effective was 71% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €30 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. The key driver of the results was the parameter "reduction in ICU length of stay."

CONCLUSIONS

We showed that PC has the potential to be cost-effective for Dutch ICUs in a time horizon of 1 year. This study is one of the first cost-effectiveness analyses of a machine learning device. Further research is needed to validate the effectiveness of PC, thereby focusing on the key parameter "reduction in ICU length of stay" and potential spill-over effects.

The influence of timing of coronary angiography on acute kidney injury in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication in cardiac arrest survivors and associated with adverse outcome. It remains unclear whether the incidence of AKI increases after the post-cardiac arrest contrast administration for coronary angiography and whether this depends on timing of angiography. Aim of this study was to investigate whether early angiography is associated with increased development of AKI compared to deferred angiography in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) survivors.

Methods

In this retrospective multicenter cohort study, we investigated whether early angiography (within 2 h) after OHCA was non-inferior to deferred angiography regarding the development of AKI. We used an absolute difference of 5% as the non-inferiority margin. Primary non-inferiority analysis was done by calculating the risk difference with its 90% confidence interval (CI) using a generalized linear model for a binary outcome. As a sensitivity analysis, we repeated the primary analysis using propensity score matching. A multivariable model was built to identify predictors of acute kidney injury.

Results

A total of 2375 patients were included from 2009 until 2018, of which 1148 patients were treated with early coronary angiography and 1227 patients with delayed or no angiography. In the early angiography group 18.5% of patients developed AKI after OHCA and 24.1% in the deferred angiography group. Risk difference was − 3.7% with 90% CI ranging from − 6.7 to − 0.7%, indicating non-inferiority of early angiography. The sensitivity analysis using propensity score matching showed accordant results, but no longer non-inferiority of early angiography. The factors time to return of spontaneous circulation (odds ratio [OR] 1.12, 95% CI 1.06–1.19, p < 0.001), the (not) use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker (OR 0.20, 95% CI 0.04–0.91, p = 0.04) and baseline creatinine (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03–1.07, p < 0.001) were found to be independently associated with the development of AKI.

Conclusions

Although AKI occurred in approximately 20% of OHCA patients, we found that early angiography was not associated with a higher AKI incidence than a deferred angiography strategy. The present results implicate that it is safe to perform early coronary angiography with respect to the risk of developing AKI after OHCA.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-022-00987-w.

Using machine learning to predict blood culture outcomes in the emergency department: a single-centre, retrospective, observational study

OBJECTIVES

To develop predictive models for blood culture (BC) outcomes in an emergency department (ED) setting.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

ED of a large teaching hospital in the Netherlands between 1 September 2018 and 24 June 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult patients from whom BCs were collected in the ED. Data of demographic information, vital signs, administered medications in the ED and laboratory and radiology results were extracted from the electronic health record, if available at the end of the ED visits.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the performance of two models (logistic regression and gradient boosted trees) to predict bacteraemia in ED patients, defined as at least one true positive BC collected at the ED.

RESULTS

In 4885 out of 51 399 ED visits (9.5%), BCs were collected. In 598/4885 (12.2%) visits, at least one of the BCs was true positive. Both a gradient boosted tree model and a logistic regression model showed good performance in predicting BC results with area under curve of the receiver operating characteristics of 0.77 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.82) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.82) in the test sets, respectively. In the gradient boosted tree model, the optimal threshold would predict 69% of BCs in the test set to be negative, with a negative predictive value of over 94%.

CONCLUSIONS

Both models can accurately identify patients with low risk of bacteraemia at the ED in this single-centre setting and may be useful to reduce unnecessary BCs and associated healthcare costs. Further studies are necessary for validation and to investigate the potential clinical benefits and possible risks after implementation.

Rapid Evaluation of Coronavirus Illness Severity (RECOILS) in intensive care: Development and validation of a prognostic tool for in-hospital mortality

Background

The prediction of in‐hospital mortality for ICU patients with COVID‐19 is fundamental to treatment and resource allocation. The main purpose was to develop an easily implemented score for such prediction.

Methods

This was an observational, multicenter, development, and validation study on a national critical care dataset of COVID‐19 patients. A systematic literature review was performed to determine variables possibly important for COVID‐19 mortality prediction. Using a logistic multivariable model with a LASSO penalty, we developed the Rapid Evaluation of Coronavirus Illness Severity (RECOILS) score and compared its performance against published scores.

Results

Our development (validation) cohort consisted of 1480 (937) adult patients from 14 (11) Dutch ICUs admitted between March 2020 and April 2021. Median age was 65 (65) years, 31% (26%) died in hospital, 74% (72%) were males, average length of ICU stay was 7.83 (10.25) days and average length of hospital stay was 15.90 (19.92) days. Age, platelets, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, pH, blood urea nitrogen, temperature, PaCO2, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score measured within +/−24 h of ICU admission were used to develop the score. The AUROC of RECOILS score was 0.75 (CI 0.71–0.78) which was higher than that of any previously reported predictive scores (0.68 [CI 0.64–0.71], 0.61 [CI 0.58–0.66], 0.67 [CI 0.63–0.70], 0.70 [CI 0.67–0.74] for ISARIC 4C Mortality Score, SOFA, SAPS‐III, and age, respectively).

Conclusions

Using a large dataset from multiple Dutch ICUs, we developed a predictive score for mortality of COVID‐19 patients admitted to ICU, which outperformed other predictive scores reported so far.

Predictors for extubation failure in COVID-19 patients using a machine learning approach

INTRODUCTION

Determining the optimal timing for extubation can be challenging in the intensive care. In this study, we aim to identify predictors for extubation failure in critically ill patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

We used highly granular data from 3464 adult critically ill COVID patients in the multicenter Dutch Data Warehouse, including demographics, clinical observations, medications, fluid balance, laboratory values, vital signs, and data from life support devices. All intubated patients with at least one extubation attempt were eligible for analysis. Transferred patients, patients admitted for less than 24 h, and patients still admitted at the time of data extraction were excluded. Potential predictors were selected by a team of intensive care physicians. The primary and secondary outcomes were extubation without reintubation or death within the next 7 days and within 48 h, respectively. We trained and validated multiple machine learning algorithms using fivefold nested cross-validation. Predictor importance was estimated using Shapley additive explanations, while cutoff values for the relative probability of failed extubation were estimated through partial dependence plots.

RESULTS

A total of 883 patients were included in the model derivation. The reintubation rate was 13.4% within 48 h and 18.9% at day 7, with a mortality rate of 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. The grandient-boost model performed best (area under the curve of 0.70) and was used to calculate predictor importance. Ventilatory characteristics and settings were the most important predictors. More specifically, a controlled mode duration longer than 4 days, a last fraction of inspired oxygen higher than 35%, a mean tidal volume per kg ideal body weight above 8 ml/kg in the day before extubation, and a shorter duration in assisted mode (< 2 days) compared to their median values. Additionally, a higher C-reactive protein and leukocyte count, a lower thrombocyte count, a lower Glasgow coma scale and a lower body mass index compared to their medians were associated with extubation failure.

CONCLUSION

The most important predictors for extubation failure in critically ill COVID-19 patients include ventilatory settings, inflammatory parameters, neurological status, and body mass index. These predictors should therefore be routinely captured in electronic health records.

Costs analysis from a randomized comparison of immediate versus delayed angiography in patients successfully resuscitated after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

Background

In out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients without ST-segment elevation, immediate coronary angiography did not improve clinical outcomes when compared to delayed angiography in the Coronary Angiography after Cardiac Arrest (COACT) trial (1,2). Whether one of the two strategies has benefits in terms of healthcare resource use and costs is currently unknown. We assess the healthcare resource use and costs in patients with OHCA.

Methods

521 patients were eligible for a cost consequence analysis. Detailed healthcare resource use and cost-prices were collected from the initial hospital episode and compared between both groups. A generalized model (GLM) with a log link function and a gamma distribution was performed. Generic quality of life was measured with the RAND36 and collected at 12 months follow-up.

Results

Overall total mean costs were similar between both groups (EUR 33575±19612 vs EUR 33880±21044, P=0.86). GLM: (β 0.991 (95% CI 0.894–1.099), P=0.86. Mean procedural costs (CAG and/or PCI, coronary artery bypass graft) were higher in the immediate angiography group (EUR 4384±3447 vs EUR 3028±4220, P&lt;0.001). Costs concerning Intensive Care Unit and ward stay did not show any significant difference. The median for the RAND-36 questionnaire physical component score was 49.2 in the immediate angiography group and 50.4 in the delayed group, P=0.57.

Conclusions

The mean total costs between OHCA patients randomized to an immediate angiography or a delayed invasive strategy were similar. With respect to the higher invasive procedure costs in the immediate group, a strategy awaiting neurological recovery followed by coronary angiography and planned revascularization may be considered.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): Supported by unrestricted research grants from the Netherlands Heart Institute, Biotronik, and AstraZeneca.

Lung ultrasound in a tertiary intensive care unit population: a diagnostic accuracy study

BACKGROUND

Evidence from previous studies comparing lung ultrasound to thoracic computed tomography (CT) in intensive care unit (ICU) patients is limited due to multiple methodologic weaknesses. While addressing methodologic weaknesses of previous studies, the primary aim of this study is to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of lung ultrasound in a tertiary ICU population.

METHODS

This is a single-center, prospective diagnostic accuracy study conducted at a tertiary ICU in the Netherlands. Critically ill patients undergoing thoracic CT for any clinical indication were included. Patients were excluded if time between the index and reference test was over eight hours. Index test and reference test consisted of 6-zone lung ultrasound and thoracic CT, respectively. Hemithoraces were classified by the index and reference test as follows: consolidation, interstitial syndrome, pneumothorax and pleural effusion. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio were estimated.

RESULTS

In total, 87 patients were included of which eight exceeded the time limit and were subsequently excluded. In total, there were 147 respiratory conditions in 79 patients. The estimated sensitivity and specificity to detect consolidation were 0.76 (95%CI: 0.68 to 0.82) and 0.92 (0.87 to 0.96), respectively. For interstitial syndrome they were 0.60 (95%CI: 0.48 to 0.71) and 0.69 (95%CI: 0.58 to 0.79). For pneumothorax they were 0.59 (95%CI: 0.33 to 0.82) and 0.97 (95%CI: 0.93 to 0.99). For pleural effusion they were 0.85 (95%CI: 0.77 to 0.91) and 0.77 (95%CI: 0.62 to 0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, lung ultrasound is an adequate diagnostic modality in a tertiary ICU population to detect consolidations, interstitial syndrome, pneumothorax and pleural effusion. Moreover, one should be careful not to interpret lung ultrasound results in deterministic fashion as multiple respiratory conditions can be present in one patient. Trial registration This study was retrospectively registered at Netherlands Trial Register on March 17, 2021, with registration number NL9344.

The Dutch Data Warehouse, a multicenter and full-admission electronic health records database for critically ill COVID-19 patients

BACKGROUND

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has underlined the urgent need for reliable, multicenter, and full-admission intensive care data to advance our understanding of the course of the disease and investigate potential treatment strategies. In this study, we present the Dutch Data Warehouse (DDW), the first multicenter electronic health record (EHR) database with full-admission data from critically ill COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

A nation-wide data sharing collaboration was launched at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. All hospitals in the Netherlands were asked to participate and share pseudonymized EHR data from adult critically ill COVID-19 patients. Data included patient demographics, clinical observations, administered medication, laboratory determinations, and data from vital sign monitors and life support devices. Data sharing agreements were signed with participating hospitals before any data transfers took place. Data were extracted from the local EHRs with prespecified queries and combined into a staging dataset through an extract-transform-load (ETL) pipeline. In the consecutive processing pipeline, data were mapped to a common concept vocabulary and enriched with derived concepts. Data validation was a continuous process throughout the project. All participating hospitals have access to the DDW. Within legal and ethical boundaries, data are available to clinicians and researchers.

RESULTS

Out of the 81 intensive care units in the Netherlands, 66 participated in the collaboration, 47 have signed the data sharing agreement, and 35 have shared their data. Data from 25 hospitals have passed through the ETL and processing pipeline. Currently, 3464 patients are included in the DDW, both from wave 1 and wave 2 in the Netherlands. More than 200 million clinical data points are available. Overall ICU mortality was 24.4%. Respiratory and hemodynamic parameters were most frequently measured throughout a patient's stay. For each patient, all administered medication and their daily fluid balance were available. Missing data are reported for each descriptive.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we show that EHR data from critically ill COVID-19 patients may be lawfully collected and can be combined into a data warehouse. These initiatives are indispensable to advance medical data science in the field of intensive care medicine.

Early high-dose vitamin C in post-cardiac arrest syndrome (VITaCCA): study protocol for a randomized, double-blind, multi-center, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

High-dose intravenous vitamin C directly scavenges and decreases the production of harmful reactive oxygen species (ROS) generated during ischemia/reperfusion after a cardiac arrest. The aim of this study is to investigate whether short-term treatment with a supplementary or very high-dose intravenous vitamin C reduces organ failure in post-cardiac arrest patients.

METHODS

This is a double-blind, multi-center, randomized placebo-controlled trial conducted in 7 intensive care units (ICUs) in The Netherlands. A total of 270 patients with cardiac arrest and return of spontaneous circulation will be randomly assigned to three groups of 90 patients (1:1:1 ratio, stratified by site and age). Patients will intravenously receive a placebo, a supplementation dose of 3 g of vitamin C or a pharmacological dose of 10 g of vitamin C per day for 96 h. The primary endpoint is organ failure at 96 h as measured by the Resuscitation-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (R-SOFA) score at 96 h minus the baseline score (delta R-SOFA). Secondary endpoints are a neurological outcome, mortality, length of ICU and hospital stay, myocardial injury, vasopressor support, lung injury score, ventilator-free days, renal function, ICU-acquired weakness, delirium, oxidative stress parameters, and plasma vitamin C concentrations.

DISCUSSION

Vitamin C supplementation is safe and preclinical studies have shown beneficial effects of high-dose IV vitamin C in cardiac arrest models. This is the first RCT to assess the clinical effect of intravenous vitamin C on organ dysfunction in critically ill patients after cardiac arrest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03509662. Registered on April 26, 2018. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03509662 European Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT): 2017-004318-25. Registered on June 8, 2018. https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2017-004318-25/NL.

Rapid screening of critically ill patients for low plasma vitamin C concentrations using a point-of-care oxidation-reduction potential measurement

Background

Hypovitaminosis C and vitamin C deficiency are common in critically ill patients and associated with organ dysfunction. Low vitamin C status often goes unnoticed because determination is challenging. The static oxidation reduction potential (sORP) reflects the amount of oxidative stress in the blood and is a potential suitable surrogate marker for vitamin C. sORP can be measured rapidly using the RedoxSYS system, a point-of-care device. This study aims to validate a model that estimates plasma vitamin C concentration and to determine the diagnostic accuracy of sORP to discriminate between decreased and higher plasma vitamin C concentrations.

Methods

Plasma vitamin C concentrations and sORP were measured in a mixed intensive care (IC) population. Our model estimating vitamin C from sORP was validated by assessing its accuracy in two datasets. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with areas under the curve (AUC) were constructed to show the diagnostic accuracy of sORP to identify and rule out hypovitaminosis C and vitamin C deficiency. Different cut-off values are provided.

Results

Plasma vitamin C concentration and sORP were measured in 117 samples in dataset 1 and 43 samples in dataset 2. Bias and precision (SD) were 1.3 ± 10.0 µmol/L and 3.9 ± 10.1 µmol/L in dataset 1 and 2, respectively. In patients with low plasma vitamin C concentrations, bias and precision were − 2.6 ± 5.1 µmol/L and − 1.1 ± 5.4 µmol in dataset 1 (n = 40) and 2 (n = 20), respectively. Optimal sORP cut-off values to differentiate hypovitaminosis C and vitamin C deficiency from higher plasma concentrations were found at 114.6 mV (AUC 0.91) and 124.7 mV (AUC 0.93), respectively.

Conclusion

sORP accurately estimates low plasma vitamin C concentrations and can be used to screen for hypovitaminosis C and vitamin C deficiency in critically ill patients. A validated model and multiple sORP cut-off values are presented for subgroup analysis in clinical trials or usage in clinical practice.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40635-021-00403-w.

Predicting mortality of individual patients with COVID-19: a multicentre Dutch cohort

OBJECTIVE

Develop and validate models that predict mortality of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 admitted to the hospital.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

A multicentre cohort across 10 Dutch hospitals including patients from 27 February to 8 June 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (age ≥18) admitted to the hospital.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

21-day all-cause mortality evaluated by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The predictive value of age was explored by comparison with age-based rules used in practice and by excluding age from the analysis.

RESULTS

2273 patients were included, of whom 516 had died or discharged to palliative care within 21 days after admission. Five feature sets, including premorbid, clinical presentation and laboratory and radiology values, were derived from 80 features. Additionally, an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)-based data-driven feature selection selected the 10 features with the highest F values: age, number of home medications, urea nitrogen, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, oxygen saturation (%), oxygen saturation is measured on room air, oxygen saturation is measured on oxygen therapy, blood gas pH and history of chronic cardiac disease. A linear logistic regression and non-linear tree-based gradient boosting algorithm fitted the data with an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.85) and 0.82 (0.79 to 0.85), respectively, using the 10 selected features. Both models outperformed age-based decision rules used in practice (AUC of 0.69, 0.65 to 0.74 for age >70). Furthermore, performance remained stable when excluding age as predictor (AUC of 0.78, 0.75 to 0.81).

CONCLUSION

Both models showed good performance and had better test characteristics than age-based decision rules, using 10 admission features readily available in Dutch hospitals. The models hold promise to aid decision-making during a hospital bed shortage.

Definition and incidence of hypotension in intensive care unit patients, an international survey of the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine

INTRODUCTION

Although hypotension in ICU patients is associated with adverse outcome, currently used definitions are unknown and no universally accepted definition exists.

METHODS

We conducted an international, peer-reviewed survey among ICU physicians and nurses to provide insight in currently used definitions, estimations of incidence, and duration of hypotension.

RESULTS

Out of 1394 respondents (1055 physicians (76%) and 339 nurses (24%)), 1207 (82%) completed the questionnaire. In all patient categories, hypotension definitions were predominantly based on an absolute MAP of 65 mmHg, except for the neuro(trauma) category (75 mmHg, p < 0.001), without differences between answers from physicians and nurses. Hypotension incidence was estimated at 55%, and time per day spent in hypotension at 15%, both with nurses reporting higher percentages than physicians (estimated mean difference 5%, p = 0.01; and 4%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

An absolute MAP threshold of 65 mmHg is most frequently used to define hypotension in ICU patients. In neuro(trauma) patients a higher threshold was reported. The majority of ICU patients are estimated to endure hypotension during their ICU admission for a considerable amount of time, with nurses reporting a higher estimated incidence and time spent in hypotension than physicians.

Sharing ICU Patient Data Responsibly Under the Society of Critical Care Medicine/European Society of Intensive Care Medicine Joint Data Science Collaboration: The Amsterdam University Medical Centers Database (AmsterdamUMCdb) Example

OBJECTIVES

Critical care medicine is a natural environment for machine learning approaches to improve outcomes for critically ill patients as admissions to ICUs generate vast amounts of data. However, technical, legal, ethical, and privacy concerns have so far limited the critical care medicine community from making these data readily available. The Society of Critical Care Medicine and the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine have identified ICU patient data sharing as one of the priorities under their Joint Data Science Collaboration. To encourage ICUs worldwide to share their patient data responsibly, we now describe the development and release of Amsterdam University Medical Centers Database (AmsterdamUMCdb), the first freely available critical care database in full compliance with privacy laws from both the United States and Europe, as an example of the feasibility of sharing complex critical care data.

SETTING

University hospital ICU.

SUBJECTS

Data from ICU patients admitted between 2003 and 2016.

INTERVENTIONS

We used a risk-based deidentification strategy to maintain data utility while preserving privacy. In addition, we implemented contractual and governance processes, and a communication strategy. Patient organizations, supporting hospitals, and experts on ethics and privacy audited these processes and the database.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

AmsterdamUMCdb contains approximately 1 billion clinical data points from 23,106 admissions of 20,109 patients. The privacy audit concluded that reidentification is not reasonably likely, and AmsterdamUMCdb can therefore be considered as anonymous information, both in the context of the U.S. Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act and the European General Data Protection Regulation. The ethics audit concluded that responsible data sharing imposes minimal burden, whereas the potential benefit is tremendous.

CONCLUSIONS

Technical, legal, ethical, and privacy challenges related to responsible data sharing can be addressed using a multidisciplinary approach. A risk-based deidentification strategy, that complies with both U.S. and European privacy regulations, should be the preferred approach to releasing ICU patient data. This supports the shared Society of Critical Care Medicine and European Society of Intensive Care Medicine vision to improve critical care outcomes through scientific inquiry of vast and combined ICU datasets.

Acute pancreatitis in COVID-19 patients: true risk?

BACKGROUND

A relation between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and acute pancreatitis has been suggested. However, the incidence and clinical relevance of this relation remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate the incidence, severity and clinical impact of acute pancreatitis in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study of a prospective, observational cohort concerning all COVID-19 patients admitted to two Dutch university hospitals between 4 March 2020 and 26 May 2020. Primary outcome was acute pancreatitis potentially related to COVD-19 infection. Acute pancreatitis was defined according to the revised Atlanta Classification. Potential relation with COVID-19 was defined as the absence of a clear aetiology of acute pancreatitis.

RESULTS

Among 433 patients with COVID-19, five (1.2%) had potentially related acute pancreatitis according to the revised Atlanta Classification. These five patients suffered from severe COVID-19 infection; all had (multiple) organ failure and 60% died. None of the patients developed necrotizing pancreatitis. Moreover, development of acute pancreatitis did not lead to major treatment consequences.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast with previous research, our study demonstrated that COVID-19 related acute pancreatitis is rare and of little clinical impact. It is therefore debatable if acute pancreatitis in COVID-19 patients requires specific screening. We hypothesize that acute pancreatitis occurs in patients with severe illness due to COVID-19 infection as a result of transient hypoperfusion and pancreatic ischemia, not as a direct result of the virus.

The effect of immediate coronary angiography after cardiac arrest without ST-segment elevation on left ventricular function. A sub-study of the COACT randomised trial

BACKGROUND

The effect of immediate coronary angiography and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients who are successfully resuscitated after cardiac arrest in the absence of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) on left ventricular function is currently unknown.

METHODS

This prespecified sub-study of a multicentre trial evaluated 552 patients, successfully resuscitated from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest without signs of STEMI. Patients were randomized to either undergo immediate coronary angiography or delayed coronary angiography, after neurologic recovery. All patients underwent PCI if indicated. The main outcomes of this analysis were left ventricular ejection fraction and end-diastolic and systolic volumes assessed by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging or echocardiography.

RESULTS

Data on left ventricular function was available for 397 patients. The mean (± standard deviation) left ventricular ejection fraction was 45.2% (±12.8) in the immediate angiography group and 48.4% (±13.2) in the delayed angiography group (mean difference: -3.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], -6.75 to 0.37). Median left ventricular end-diastolic volume was 177 ml in the immediate angiography group compared to 169 ml in the delayed angiography group (ratio of geometric means: 1.06; 95% CI, 0.95-1.19). In addition, mean left ventricular end-systolic volume was 90 ml in the immediate angiography group compared to 78 ml in the delayed angiography group (ratio of geometric means: 1.13; 95% CI 0.97-1.32).

CONCLUSION

In patients successfully resuscitated after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and without signs of STEMI, immediate coronary angiography was not found to improve left ventricular dimensions or function compared with a delayed angiography strategy.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Netherlands Trial Register number, NTR4973.

Cardiovascular risk factors and COVID-19 outcomes in hospitalised patients: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Recent reports suggest a high prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in COVID-19 patients, but the role of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in the clinical course of COVID-19 is unknown. We evaluated the time-to-event relationship between hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes and COVID-19 outcomes.

DESIGN

We analysed data from the prospective Dutch CovidPredict cohort, an ongoing prospective study of patients admitted for COVID-19 infection.

SETTING

Patients from eight participating hospitals, including two university hospitals from the CovidPredict cohort were included.

PARTICIPANTS

Admitted, adult patients with a positive COVID-19 PCR or high suspicion based on CT-imaging of the thorax. Patients were followed for major outcomes during the hospitalisation. CVD risk factors were established via home medication lists and divided in antihypertensives, lipid-lowering therapy and antidiabetics.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES MEASURES

The primary outcome was mortality during the first 21 days following admission, secondary outcomes consisted of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and ICU mortality. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to determine the association with CVD risk factors.

RESULTS

We included 1604 patients with a mean age of 66±15 of whom 60.5% were men. Antihypertensives, lipid-lowering therapy and antidiabetics were used by 45%, 34.7% and 22.1% of patients. After 21-days of follow-up; 19.2% of the patients had died or were discharged for palliative care. Cox regression analysis after adjustment for age and sex showed that the presence of ≥2 risk factors was associated with increased mortality risk (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.02), but not with ICU admission. Moreover, the use of ≥2 antidiabetics and ≥2 antihypertensives was associated with mortality independent of age and sex with HRs of, respectively, 2.09 (95% CI 1.55 to 2.80) and 1.46 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.91).

CONCLUSIONS

The accumulation of hypertension, dyslipidaemia and diabetes leads to a stepwise increased risk for short-term mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients independent of age and sex. Further studies investigating how these risk factors disproportionately affect COVID-19 patients are warranted.

[Clinical course of COVID-19 in the Netherlands: an overview of 2607 patients in hospital during the first wave]

OBJECTIVE

To systematically collect clinical data from patients with a proven COVID-19 infection in the Netherlands.

DESIGN

Data from 2579 patients with COVID-19 admitted to 10 Dutch centers in the period February to July 2020 are described. The clinical data are based on the WHO COVID case record form (CRF) and supplemented with patient characteristics of which recently an association disease severity has been reported.

METHODS

Survival analyses were performed as primary statistical analysis. These Kaplan-Meier curves for time to (early) death (3 weeks) have been determined for pre-morbid patient characteristics and clinical, radiological and laboratory data at hospital admission.

RESULTS

Total in-hospital mortality after 3 weeks was 22.2% (95% CI: 20.7% - 23.9%), hospital mortality within 21 days was significantly higher for elderly patients (> 70 years; 35, 0% (95% CI: 32.4% - 37.8%) and patients who died during the 21 days and were admitted to the intensive care (36.5% (95% CI: 32.1% - 41.3%)). Apart from that, in this Dutch population we also see a risk of early death in patients with co-morbidities (such as chronic neurological, nephrological and cardiac disorders and hypertension), and in patients with more home medication and / or with increased urea and creatinine levels.

CONCLUSION

Early death due to a COVID-19 infection in the Netherlands appears to be associated with demographic variables (e.g. age), comorbidity (e.g. cardiovascular disease) but also disease char-acteristics at admission.

The Value of Artificial Intelligence in Laboratory Medicine

OBJECTIVES

As laboratory medicine continues to undergo digitalization and automation, clinical laboratorians will likely be confronted with the challenges associated with artificial intelligence (AI). Understanding what AI is good for, how to evaluate it, what are its limitations, and how it can be implemented are not well understood. With a survey, we aimed to evaluate the thoughts of stakeholders in laboratory medicine on the value of AI in the diagnostics space and identify anticipated challenges and solutions to introducing AI.

METHODS

We conducted a web-based survey on the use of AI with participants from Roche's Strategic Advisory Network that included key stakeholders in laboratory medicine.

RESULTS

In total, 128 of 302 stakeholders responded to the survey. Most of the participants were medical practitioners (26%) or laboratory managers (22%). AI is currently used in the organizations of 15.6%, while 66.4% felt they might use it in the future. Most had an unsure attitude on what they would need to adopt AI in the diagnostics space. High investment costs, lack of proven clinical benefits, number of decision makers, and privacy concerns were identified as barriers to adoption. Education in the value of AI, streamlined implementation and integration into existing workflows, and research to prove clinical utility were identified as solutions needed to mainstream AI in laboratory medicine.

CONCLUSIONS

This survey demonstrates that specific knowledge of AI in the medical community is poor and that AI education is much needed. One strategy could be to implement new AI tools alongside existing tools.

Data on sex differences in one-year outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients without ST-segment elevation

Sex differences in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients are increasingly recognized. Although it has been found that post-resuscitated women are less likely to have significant coronary artery disease (CAD) than men, data on follow-up in these patients are limited. Data for this data in brief article was obtained as a part of the randomized controlled Coronary Angiography after Cardiac Arrest without ST-segment elevation (COACT) trial. The data supplements the manuscript “Sex differences in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients without ST-segment elevation: A COACT trial substudy” were it was found that women were less likely to have significant CAD including chronic total occlusions, and had worse survival when CAD was present. The dataset presented in this paper describes sex differences on interventions, implantable-cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) shocks and hospitalizations due to heart failure during one-year follow-up in patients successfully resuscitated after OHCA. Data was derived through a telephone interview at one year with the patient or general practitioner. Patients in this randomized dataset reflects a homogenous study population, which can be valuable to further build on research regarding long-term sex differences and to further improve cardiac care.

Coronary Angiography After Cardiac Arrest Without ST Segment Elevation: One-Year Outcomes of the COACT Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Ischemic heart disease is a common cause of cardiac arrest. However, randomized data on long-term clinical outcomes of immediate coronary angiography and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients successfully resuscitated from cardiac arrest in the absence of ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) are lacking.

Objective

To determine whether immediate coronary angiography improves clinical outcomes at 1 year in patients after cardiac arrest without signs of STEMI, compared with a delayed coronary angiography strategy.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A prespecified analysis of a multicenter, open-label, randomized clinical trial evaluated 552 patients who were enrolled in 19 Dutch centers between January 8, 2015, and July 17, 2018. The study included patients who experienced out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with a shockable rhythm who were successfully resuscitated without signs of STEMI. Follow-up was performed at 1 year. Data were analyzed, using the intention-to-treat principle, between August 29 and October 10, 2019.

Interventions

Immediate coronary angiography and PCI if indicated or coronary angiography and PCI if indicated, delayed until after neurologic recovery.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Survival, myocardial infarction, revascularization, implantable cardiac defibrillator shock, quality of life, hospitalization for heart failure, and the composite of death or myocardial infarction or revascularization after 1 year.

Results

At 1 year, data on 522 of 552 patients (94.6%) were available for analysis. Of these patients, 413 were men (79.1%); mean (SD) age was 65.4 (12.3) years. A total of 162 of 264 patients (61.4%) in the immediate angiography group and 165 of 258 patients (64.0%) in the delayed angiography group were alive (odds ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.63-1.28). The composite end point of death, myocardial infarction, or repeated revascularization since the index hospitalization was met in 112 patients (42.9%) in the immediate group and 104 patients (40.6%) in the delayed group (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.77-1.56). No significant differences between the groups were observed for the other outcomes at 1-year follow-up. For example, the rate of ICD shocks was 20.4% in the immediate group and 16.2% in the delayed group (odds ratio, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.66-2.64).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this trial of patients successfully resuscitated after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and without signs of STEMI, a strategy of immediate angiography was not found to be superior to a strategy of delayed angiography with respect to clinical outcomes at 1 year. Coronary angiography in this patient group can therefore be delayed until after neurologic recovery without affecting outcomes.

Trial Registration

trialregister.nl Identifier: NTR4973.

Sex differences in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest without ST-segment elevation: A COACT trial substudy

BACKGROUND

Whether sex is associated with outcomes of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is unclear.

OBJECTIVES

This study examined sex differences in survival in patients with OHCA without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS

Using data from the randomized controlled Coronary Angiography after Cardiac Arrest (COACT) trial, the primary point of interest was sex differences in OHCA-related one-year survival. Secondary points of interest included the benefit of immediate coronary angiography compared to delayed angiography until after neurologic recovery, angiographic and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

In total, 522 patients (79.1% men) were included. Overall one-year survival was 59.6% in women and 63.4% in men (HR 1.18; 95% CI: 0.76-1.81;p = 0.47). No cardiovascular risk factors were found that modified survival. Women less often had significant coronary artery disease (CAD) (37.0% vs. 71.3%;p < 0.001), but when present, they had a worse prognosis than women without CAD (HR 3.06; 95% CI 1.31-7.19;p = 0.01). This was not the case for men (HR 1.05; 95% CI 0.67-1.65;p = 0.83). In both sexes, immediate coronary angiography did not improve one-year survival compared to delayed angiography (women, odds ratio (OR) 0.87; 95% CI 0.58-1.30;p = 0.49; vs. men, OR 0.97; 95% CI 0.45-2.09;p = 0.93).

CONCLUSION

In OHCA patients without STEMI, we found no sex differences in overall one-year survival. Women less often had significant CAD, but when CAD was present they had worse survival than women without CAD. This was not the case for men. Both sexes did not benefit from a strategy of immediate coronary angiography as compared to delayed strategy with respect to one-year survival.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Netherlands trial register (NTR) 4973.

Correction to: Optimizing Predictive Performance of Bayesian Forecasting for Vancomycin Concentration in Intensive Care Patients

This article was updated to correct Figs. 1 and 4 as author corrections were overlooked during the production process.

Optimizing Predictive Performance of Bayesian Forecasting for Vancomycin Concentration in Intensive Care Patients

Purpose

Bayesian forecasting is crucial for model-based dose optimization based on therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data of vancomycin in intensive care (ICU) patients. We aimed to evaluate the performance of Bayesian forecasting using maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation for model-based TDM.

Methods

We used a vancomycin TDM data set (n = 408 patients). We compared standard MAP-based Bayesian forecasting with two alternative approaches: (i) adaptive MAP which handles data over multiple iterations, and (ii) weighted MAP which weights the likelihood contribution of data. We evaluated the percentage error (PE) for seven scenarios including historical TDM data from the preceding day up to seven days.

Results

The mean of median PEs of all scenarios for the standard MAP, adaptive MAP and weighted MAP method were − 7.7%, −4.5% and − 6.7%. The adaptive MAP also showed the narrowest inter-quartile range of PE. In addition, regardless of MAP method, including historical TDM data further in the past will increase prediction errors.

Conclusions

The proposed adaptive MAP method outperforms standard MAP in predictive performance and may be considered for improvement of model-based dose optimization. The inclusion of historical data beyond either one day (standard MAP and weighted MAP) or two days (adaptive MAP) reduces predictive performance.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s11095-020-02908-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Why we should sample sparsely and aim for a higher target: Lessons from model-based therapeutic drug monitoring of vancomycin in intensive care patients

Aims

To explore the optimal data sampling scheme and the pharmacokinetic (PK) target exposure on which dose computation is based in the model‐based therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) practice of vancomycin in intensive care (ICU) patients.

Methods

We simulated concentration data for 1 day following four sampling schemes, C_min, C_max + C_min, C_max + C_{mid‐interval} + C_min, and rich sampling where a sample was drawn every hour within a dose interval. The datasets were used for Bayesian estimation to obtain PK parameters, which were used to compute the doses for the next day based on five PK target exposures: AUC₂₄ = 400, 500, and 600 mg·h/L and C_min = 15 and 20 mg/L. We then simulated data for the next day, adopting the computed doses, and repeated the above procedure for 7 days. Thereafter, we calculated the percentage error and the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of estimated against “true” PK parameters, and the percentage of optimal treatment (POT), defined as the percentage of patients who met 400 ≤ AUC₂₄ ≤ 600 mg·h/L and C_min ≤ 20 mg/L.

Results

PK parameters were unbiasedly estimated in all investigated scenarios and the 6‐day average NRMSE were 32.5%/38.5% (CL/V, where CL is clearance and V is volume of distribution) in the trough sampling scheme and 27.3%/26.5% (CL/V) in the rich sampling scheme. Regarding POT, the sampling scheme had marginal influence, while target exposure showed clear impacts that the maximum POT of 71.5% was reached when doses were computed based on AUC₂₄ = 500 mg·h/L.

Conclusions

For model‐based TDM of vancomycin in ICU patients, sampling more frequently than taking only trough samples adds no value and dosing based on AUC₂₄ = 500 mg·h/L lead to the best POT.

Machine learning for the prediction of sepsis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy

PURPOSE

Early clinical recognition of sepsis can be challenging. With the advancement of machine learning, promising real-time models to predict sepsis have emerged. We assessed their performance by carrying out a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Embase.com and Scopus. Studies targeting sepsis, severe sepsis or septic shock in any hospital setting were eligible for inclusion. The index test was any supervised machine learning model for real-time prediction of these conditions. Quality of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) methodology, with a tailored Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) checklist to evaluate risk of bias. Models with a reported area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) metric were meta-analyzed to identify strongest contributors to model performance.

RESULTS

After screening, a total of 28 papers were eligible for synthesis, from which 130 models were extracted. The majority of papers were developed in the intensive care unit (ICU, n = 15; 54%), followed by hospital wards (n = 7; 25%), the emergency department (ED, n = 4; 14%) and all of these settings (n = 2; 7%). For the prediction of sepsis, diagnostic test accuracy assessed by the AUROC ranged from 0.68-0.99 in the ICU, to 0.96-0.98 in-hospital and 0.87 to 0.97 in the ED. Varying sepsis definitions limit pooling of the performance across studies. Only three papers clinically implemented models with mixed results. In the multivariate analysis, temperature, lab values, and model type contributed most to model performance.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review and meta-analysis show that on retrospective data, individual machine learning models can accurately predict sepsis onset ahead of time. Although they present alternatives to traditional scoring systems, between-study heterogeneity limits the assessment of pooled results. Systematic reporting and clinical implementation studies are needed to bridge the gap between bytes and bedside.

Why physiology will continue to guide the choice between balanced crystalloids and normal saline: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Crystalloids are the most frequently prescribed drugs in intensive care medicine and emergency medicine. Thus, even small differences in outcome may have major implications, and therefore, the choice between balanced crystalloids versus normal saline continues to be debated. We examined to what extent the currently accrued information size from completed and ongoing trials on the subject allow intensivists and emergency physicians to choose the right fluid for their patients.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis with random effects inverse variance model. Published randomized controlled trials enrolling adult patients to compare balanced crystalloids versus normal saline in the setting of intensive care medicine or emergency medicine were included. The main outcome was mortality at the longest follow-up, and secondary outcomes were moderate to severe acute kidney injury (AKI) and initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT). Trial sequential analyses (TSA) were performed, and risk of bias and overall quality of evidence were assessed. Additionally, previously published meta-analyses, trial sequential analyses and ongoing large trials were analysed for included studies, required information size calculations and the assumptions underlying those calculations.

RESULTS

Nine studies (n = 32,777) were included. Of those, eight had data available on mortality, seven on AKI and six on RRT. Meta-analysis showed no significant differences between balanced crystalloids versus normal saline for mortality (P = 0.33), the incidence of moderate to severe AKI (P = 0.37) or initiation of RRT (P = 0.29). Quality of evidence was low to very low. Analysis of previous meta-analyses and ongoing trials showed large differences in calculated required versus accrued information sizes and assumptions underlying those. TSA revealed the need for extremely large trials based on our realistic and clinically relevant assumptions on relative risk reduction and baseline mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis could not find significant differences between balanced crystalloids and normal saline on mortality at the longest follow-up, moderate to severe AKI or new RRT. Currently accrued information size is smaller, and the required information size is larger than previously anticipated. Therefore, completed and ongoing trials on the topic may fail to provide adequate guidance for choosing the right crystalloid. Thus, physiology will continue to play an important role for individualizing this choice.