Frequentist and Bayesian approaches for food allergen risk assessment: risk outcome and uncertainty comparisons

Peer-reviewed probabilistic methods already predict the probability of an allergic reaction resulting from an accidental exposure to food allergens, however, the methods calculate it in different ways. The available methods utilize the same three major input parameters in the risk model: the risk is estimated from the amount of food consumed, the concentration of allergen in the contaminated product and the distribution of thresholds among allergic persons. However, consensus is lacking about the optimal method to estimate the risk of allergic reaction and the associated uncertainty. This study aims to compare estimation of the risk of allergic reaction and associated uncertainty using different methods and suggest improvements. Four cases were developed based on the previous publications and the risk estimations were compared. The risk estimation was found to agree within 0.5% with the different simulation cases. Finally, an uncertainty analysis method is also presented in order to evaluate the uncertainty propagation from the input parameters to the risk.

Food groups for allergen risk assessment: Combining food consumption data from different countries in Europe

To prevent allergic reactions, food producers have to be able to make a knowledge based decision on whether to label their products with precautionary labelling. As many manufactured food products are sold in different countries across Europe, the allergen risk assessment should be estimated at the European levels. As currently, there are no pan-European food data suitable for food allergy risk assessment. The aim of this paper is to investigate if consumption data, at a meal level, from National Food Consumption Surveys, can be combined to form a common Food Consumption database. In this first attempt we developed a procedure to investigate, if national food consumption data can be combined and grouped using data from Netherlands, France and Denmark. The homogeneity of consumption patterns and the relevance of difference in risk of allergic reaction were compared, using a fixed framework of allergen concentration levels and threshold distribution. Thus, the relevance of using common consumption data across countries was verified. The food groups formed were subsequently evaluated and adjusted based on practical considerations. It resulted in designing 61 food groups that can be used for allergen risk assessment. The summary statistics and descriptive names for each food group are included.

In silico modelling of permeation enhancement potency in Caco-2 monolayers based on molecular descriptors and random forest

Structural traits of permeation enhancers are important determinants of their capacity to promote enhanced drug absorption. Therefore, in order to obtain a better understanding of structure-activity relationships for permeation enhancers, a Quantitative Structural Activity Relationship (QSAR) model has been developed. The random forest-QSAR model was based upon Caco-2 data for 41 surfactant-like permeation enhancers from Whitehead et al. (2008) and molecular descriptors calculated from their structure. The QSAR model was validated by two test-sets: (i) an eleven compound experimental set with Caco-2 data and (ii) nine compounds with Caco-2 data from literature. Feature contributions, a recent developed diagnostic tool, was applied to elucidate the contribution of individual molecular descriptors to the predicted potency. Feature contributions provided easy interpretable suggestions of important structural properties for potent permeation enhancers such as segregation of hydrophilic and lipophilic domains. Focusing on surfactant-like properties, it is possible to model the potency of the complex pharmaceutical excipients, permeation enhancers. For the first time, a QSAR model has been developed for permeation enhancement. The model is a valuable in silico approach for both screening of new permeation enhancers and physicochemical optimisation of surfactant enhancer systems.

Comparison of estimated energy intake using Web-based Dietary Assessment Software with accelerometer-determined energy expenditure in children

BACKGROUND

The OPUS (Optimal well-being, development and health for Danish children through a healthy New Nordic Diet) project carried out a school meal study to assess the impact of a New Nordic Diet (NND). The random controlled trial involved 834 children aged 8-11 in nine local authority schools in Denmark. Dietary assessment was carried out using a program known as WebDASC (Web-based Dietary Assessment Software for Children) to collect data from the children.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the energy intake (EI) of schoolchildren aged 8-11 estimated using the WebDASC system against the total energy expenditure (TEE) as derived from accelerometers worn by the children during the same period. A second objective was to evaluate the WebDASC's usability.

DESIGN

Eighty-one schoolchildren took part in what was the pilot study for the OPUS project, and they recorded their total diet using WebDASC and wore an accelerometer for two periods of seven consecutive days: at baseline, when they ate their usual packed lunches and at intervention when they were served the NND. EI was estimated using WebDASC, and TEE was calculated from accelerometer-derived activity energy expenditure, basal metabolic rate, and diet-induced thermogenesis. WebDASC's usability was assessed using a questionnaire. Parents could help their children record their diet and answer the questionnaire.

RESULTS

Evaluated against TEE as derived from the accelerometers worn at the same time, the WebDASC performed just as well as other traditional methods of collecting dietary data and proved both effective and acceptable with children aged 8-11, even with perhaps less familiar foods of the NND.

CONCLUSIONS

WebDASC is a useful method that provided a reasonably accurate measure of EI at group level when compared to TEE derived from accelerometer-determined physical activity in children. WebDASC will benefit future research in this area.

Comparison of estimated energy intake from 2×24-hour recalls and a seven-day food record with objective measurements of energy expenditure in children

Objective

The objective of the present study was to evaluate energy intake (EI) estimated from two non-consecutive 24-hour recalls (24-HDRs) and a pre-coded seven-day food record (7-dFR) against objective measurements of energy expenditure (EE) in children.

Design

A total of 67 7–8 year-olds and 64 12–13 year-olds completed the 2×24-HDRs, the 7-dFR, and wore ActiReg^® (PreMed AS, Oslo, Norway), a combined position and motion recording instrument, during the same seven days as the 7-dFR was filled in.

Results

In the 7–8 year-olds, EI from the 2×24-HDRs (EI_2×24-HDR) was overestimated with 3% compared to EE (not significantly different), while EI from the 7-dFR (EI_7-dFR) was underestimated with 7% compared to EE (P=0.001). In the 12–13 year-olds, the corresponding figures was underestimation by 10% with the 2×24-HDRs (P<0.001) and by 20% with the 7-dFR (P<0.001). For both age groups combined, the 95% limits of agreement were −4·38 and 3.52 MJ/d for the 2×24-HDRs, and −5.90 and 2.94 MJ/d for the 7-dFR. Pearson correlation coefficients between EI and EE were 0.51 for EI_2×24-HDR and 0.29 for EI_7-dFR, respectively. The proportion classified in the same or adjacent quartiles was 76% for EI_2×24-HDR and 73% for EI_7-dFR in the 7–8 year-olds, and 83% for EI_2×24-HDR and 70% for EI_7-dFR in the 12–13 year-olds.

Conclusion

Misreporting of EI seemed modest with both the 2×24-HDRs and the 7-dFR in the 7–8 year-olds when compared to EE measured with ActiReg^®. Under-reporting appeared to be more evident in the 12–13 year-olds, especially with the 7-dFR. Compared to measurements of EE, the 2×24-HDRs seemed to perform slightly better than the 7-dFR in terms of ranking of individuals according to EI.

Flavour development in pork. Influence of flavour precursor concentrations in longissimus dorsi from pigs with different raw meat qualities

Flavour development and overall eating quality of pan-fried pork chops of longissimus dorsi from eight different raw meat qualities aged for 4 and 15 days were assessed by a trained sensory panel. The raw meat qualities were obtained through combinations of strategic feeding/fasting (control vs. low glycogen concentration), slaughter live-weight (84kg vs. 110kg), and gender (female vs. castrate). The flavour development was investigated for possible correlation with the concentrations of selected individual flavour precursors present in the raw meat: monosaccharides, IMP and degradation products, fatty acids, lactate and thiamine. Differences in precursor concentrations between the raw meat qualities were observed with feeding/fasting and ageing as the main factors with the largest influence of all experimental factors. However, the concentrations of the precursors could not explain the differences in sensory perception of the pan-fried pork chops. Overall, the differences were small.

In Silico Prediction of Cytochrome P450 2D6 and 3A4 Inhibition Using Gaussian Kernel Weighted k-Nearest Neighbor and Extended Connectivity Fingerprints, Including Structural Fragment Analysis of Inhibitors versus Noninhibitors

Inhibition of cytochrome P450 (CYP) enzymes is unwanted because of the risk of severe side effects due to drug-drug interactions. We present two in silico Gaussian kernel weighted k-nearest neighbor models based on extended connectivity fingerprints that classify CYP2D6 and CYP3A4 inhibition. Data used for modeling consisted of diverse sets of 1153 and 1382 drug candidates tested for CYP2D6 and CYP3A4 inhibition in human liver microsomes. For CYP2D6, 82% of the classified test set compounds were predicted to the correct class. For CYP3A4, 88% of the classified compounds were correctly classified. CYP2D6 and CYP3A4 inhibition were additionally classified for an external test set on 14 drugs, and multidimensional scaling plots showed that the drugs in the external test set were in the periphery of the training sets. Furthermore, fragment analyses were performed and structural fragments frequent in CYP2D6 and CYP3A4 inhibitors and noninhibitors are presented.

Two subpopulations of Listeria monocytogenes occur at subinhibitory concentrations of leucocin 4010 and nisin

In situ analyses of single Listeria monocytogenes cells at subinhibitory concentrations of leucocin 4010 and nisin revealed two subpopulations when measured by fluorescence ratio imaging microscopy (FRIM) after staining with 5(6)-carboxyfluorescein diacetate succinimidyl ester. One subpopulation consisted of cells with a dissipated pH gradient (DeltapH), and the other consisted of cells that maintained DeltapH. The proportion of cells belonging to each subpopulation was estimated, and the concentrations of bacteriocins required to dissipate DeltapH for 90% of the cell population (ED90) was predicted. ED90 increased after the addition of sodium chloride (1 to 3% [wt/vol]) to the bacteriocin solutions, while ED90 decreased by the addition of sodium nitrite (60 and 100 ppm). Other meat additives, including sodium phosphate, sodium lactate, sodium citrate, and sodium acetate slightly increased ED90. The inhibitory effect of sodium chloride on the antilisterial activity of leucocin 4010 and nisin was confirmed on the surfaces of meat sausages. This study highlights the important practical implications of applying subinhibitory concentrations of bacteriocins, which results in unaffected target cells. In situ analyses by FRIM in combination with modeling of single-cell data can be applied to ensure that sufficient concentrations of bacteriocins are used in food preservation.

In Silico Prediction of Membrane Permeability from Calculated Molecular Parameters

A data set consisting of 712 compounds was used for classification into two classes with respect to membrane permeation in a cell-based assay: (0) apparent permeability (P(app)) below 4 x 10(-6) cm/s and (1) P(app) on 4 x 10(-6) cm/s or higher. Nine molecular descriptors were calculated for each compound and Nearest-Neighbor classification was applied using five neighbors as optimized by full cross-validation. A model based on five descriptors, number of flex bonds, number of hydrogen bond acceptors and donors, and molecular and polar surface area, was selected by variable selection. In an external test set of 112 compounds, 104 compounds were classified and 8 compounds were judged as "unknown". Among the 104 compounds, 16 were misclassified corresponding to a misclassification rate of 15% and no compounds were falsely predicted in the nonpermeable class.

Acitretin is converted to etretinate only during concomitant alcohol intake

BACKGROUND

Acitretin has replaced etretinate in the treatment of various disorders of keratinization due to a considerably shorter terminal half-life. Possible esterification of acitretin to etretinate in the presence of ethanol has been reported.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the plasma concentrations of etretinate as a metabolite in patients with various disorders of keratinization after multiple acitretin dosing, and to assess the influence of alcohol consumption using a questionnaire. In addition, to study the influence of alcohol consumption on the risk of metabolic formation of etretinate.

PATIENTS/METHODS

Eighty-six acitretin (Neotigason(R), Roche)-treated outpatients from three centres provided pre-dose (trough) samples for determining plasma concentrations of acitretin and its metabolites 13-cis-acitretin and etretinate. Patients received acitretin doses of between 0.1 and 1.3 mg kg-1 daily. The concentrations of etretinate, acitretin and 13-cis-acitretin were determined by reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography.

RESULTS

Of the 86 patients, 30 had detectable plasma etretinate levels. No etretinate was found in 20 patients who reported that they never drank alcohol, while etretinate was found in all 16 patients with an average weekly alcohol consumption of > 200 g ethanol, corresponding to about 15 U (1 U equals half a pint of standard beer or a wine glass of non-fortified wine). Etretinate was detected in 14 of 50 patients with a moderate weekly alcohol intake of up to 200 g ethanol. A trend linking higher alcohol intake with both higher risk of etretinate formation and higher etretinate levels was observed. The study also revealed that the ethylesterification only relates to acitretin (13-trans-) and not to the main metabolite 13-cis-acitretin, although the latter compound showed higher plasma trough concentration levels at steady state.

CONCLUSIONS

Owing to the teratogenic potential and possible side-effects of oral retinoids, fertile women especially should be informed about the importance of strict alcohol abstinence during treatment and for at least 2 months after stopping therapy. In case of non-compliance with alcohol abstinence a post-therapy contraceptive period of 2-3 years should be recommended.

Chromosome aberrations in in vitro-produced bovine embryos at days 2-5 post-insemination

Availability of embryos of high quality is required to obtain satisfactory embryonic developmental rates and normal calves following transfer of in vitro-produced (IVP) bovine embryos. One relevant quality parameter is the frequency of chromosome aberrations, which can be evaluated using multicolor fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) with chromosome 6- and chromosome 7-specific probes in cattle. In this study, interphase nuclei (n = 3805) were analyzed from 426 bovine IVP embryos. We found that 73%, 72%, 81%, and 58% of the embryos from Days 2, 3, 4, and 5 post-insemination (pi), respectively, displayed a normal diploid chromosome number in all cells. When looking at the types of chromosome aberrations, the percentages of mixoploidy at Days 2, 3, 4, and 5 pi were 22%, 15%, 16%, and 42%, respectively, whereas the percentages of polyploidy (i.e., all nuclei in an embryo were analyzed and were polyploid) were 5%, 13%, 3%, and 0%, respectively. In conclusion, numerical chromosome aberrations were detected as early as Day 2 pi. The development of polyploid embryos is slow and is apparently arrested during the third cell cycle, whereas the mixoploid embryos seem to continue development.

Influence of variety and growing location on the development of off-flavor in precooked vacuum-packed potatoes

Development of potato off-flavor (POF) was examined in precooked vacuum-packed potatoes by GC and sensory analyses. The experiments comprised four varieties grown at two locations. Aroma compounds shown to be potential contributors to POF were determined quantitatively, and their relative importance was interpreted by aroma values based on odor detection threshold values determined in water. There were statistically significant differences in the content of POF compounds between the growing locations and among some of the varieties. The results from the sensory analyses concurred roughly with the GC analyses. (E,E)-2,4-Nonadienal and (E, E)-2,4-decadienal were shown to be the most potent of the POF compounds examined, in addition with hexanal, (E)-2-octenal, and (E)-2-nonenal. Lowering the development of POF in precooked vacuum-packed potatoes should be possible by optimizing the environmental conditions and breeding for suitable varieties.