Perinatal outcomes after admission with COVID-19 in pregnancy: a UK national cohort study

There are few population-based studies of sufficient size and follow-up duration to have reliably assessed perinatal outcomes for pregnant women hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The United Kingdom Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS) covers all 194 consultant-led UK maternity units and included all pregnant women admitted to hospital with an ongoing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here we show that in this large national cohort comprising two years' active surveillance over four SARS-CoV-2 variant periods and with near complete follow-up of pregnancy outcomes for 16,627 included women, severe perinatal outcomes were more common in women with moderate to severe COVID-19, during the delta dominant period and among unvaccinated women. We provide strong evidence to recommend continuous surveillance of pregnancy outcomes in future pandemics and to continue to recommend SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in pregnancy to protect both mothers and babies.

Routine sterile glove and instrument change at the time of abdominal wound closure to prevent surgical site infection (ChEETAh): a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of a pragmatic, cluster-randomised trial in seven low-income and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Surgical site infection (SSI) is a major burden on patients and health systems. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of routine change of sterile gloves and instruments before abdominal wall closure to prevent SSI.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model was built to estimate average costs and outcomes of changing gloves and instruments before abdominal wall closure compared with current practice. Clinical data were obtained from the ChEETAh trial, a multicentre, cluster-randomised trial in seven low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), and costs were obtained from a study (KIWI) that assessed costs associated with SSIs in LMICs. Outcomes were measured as the percentage of surgeries resulting in SSIs. Costs were measured from a health-care provider perspective and were reported in 2021 US$. The economic analysis used a partially split single-country costing approach, with pooled outcomes data from all seven countries in the ChEETAh trial, and data for resource use and unit costs from India (KIWI); secondary analyses used resource use and costs from Mexico and Ghana (KIWI).

FINDINGS

In the base case, the average cost of the intervention was $259∙92 compared with $261∙10 for current practice (cost difference -$1∙18, 95% CI -4∙08 to 1∙33). In the intervention group, an estimated 17∙6% of patients had an SSI compared with 19∙7% of patients in the current practice group (absolute risk reduction 2∙10%, 95% CI 2∙07-2∙84). At all cost-effectiveness thresholds assumed ($0 to $14 000), the intervention had a higher likelihood of being cost-effective compared with current practice, indicating that the intervention was cost-effective. Similar results were obtained when the analysis using data from India was repeated using resource use and unit cost data from Mexico and Ghana.

INTERPRETATION

Routine sterile glove and instrument change before abdominal wall closure is effective and the costs are similar to those for current practice. Routine change of gloves and instruments before abdominal wall closure should be rolled out in LMICs.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Clinician Scientist Award, NIHR Global Health Research Unit Grant, and Mölnlycke Healthcare.

Accuracy of the Wound Healing Questionnaire in the diagnosis of surgical-site infection after abdominal surgery in low- and middle-income countries

INTRODUCTION

Telemedicine is being adopted for postoperative surveillance but requires evaluation for efficacy. This study tested a telephone Wound Healing Questionnaire (WHQ) to diagnose surgical site infection (SSI) after abdominal surgery in low- and middle-income countries.

METHOD

A multi-centre, international, prospective study was embedded in the FALCON trial; a factorial RCT testing measures to reduce SSI in seven low- and middle-income countries (NCT03700749). It was conducted according to a pre-registered protocol (SWAT126) and reported according to STARD guidelines. The reference test was in-person review by a trained clinician at 30 postoperative days according to US Centres for Disease Control criteria. The index test was telephone administration of an adapted WHQ at 27 to 30 postoperative days by a researcher blinded to the outcome of in-person review. The sum of item response scores generated an overall score between 0 and 29. The primary outcome was the diagnostic accuracy of the WHQ, defined as the proportion of SSI correctly identified by the telephone WHQ, and summarized using the area under the receiving operator characteristic curve (AUROC) and diagnostic test accuracy statistics.

RESULTS

Patients were included from three upper-middle income (396 patients, 13 hospitals), three lower-middle income (746 patients, 19 hospitals), and one low-income country (54 patients, 4 hospitals). 90.3% (1088 of 1196) patients were successfully contacted. Those with non-midline incisions (adjusted odds ratio: 0.36, 95% c.i. 0.17 to 0.73, P=0.005) or a confirmed diagnosis of SSI on in-person assessment (odds ratio: 0.42, 95% c.i. 0.20 to 0.92, P=0.006) were harder to reach. The questionnaire correctly discriminated between most patients with and without SSI (AUROC 0.869, 95% c.i. 0.824 to 0.914), which was consistent across subgroups. A representative cut-off score of ≥4 displayed a sensitivity of 0.701 (0.610-0.792), specificity of 0.911 (0.878-0.943), positive predictive value of 0.723 (0.633-0.814) and negative predictive value of 0.901 (0.867-0.935).

CONCLUSION

SSI can be diagnosed using a telephone questionnaire (obviating in-person assessment) in low resource settings.

Detection and evaluation of signals associated with exposure to individual and combination of medications in pregnancy: a signal detection study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Considering the high prevalence of polypharmacy in pregnant women and the knowledge gap in the risk-benefit safety profile of their often-complex treatment plan, more research is needed to optimise prescribing. In this study, we aim to detect adverse and protective effect signals of exposure to individual and pairwise combinations of medications during pregnancy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Using a range of real-world data sources from the UK, we aim to conduct a pharmacovigilance study to assess the safety of medications prescribed during the preconception period (3 months prior to conception) and first trimester of pregnancy. Women aged between 15 and 49 years with a record of pregnancy within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Pregnancy Register, the Welsh Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL), the Scottish Morbidity Record (SMR) data sets and the Northern Ireland Maternity System (NIMATS) will be included. A series of case control studies will be conducted to estimate measures of disproportionality, detecting signals of association between a range of pregnancy outcomes and exposure to individual and combinations of medications. A multidisciplinary expert team will be invited to a signal detection workshop. By employing a structured framework, signals will be transparently assessed by each member of the team using a questionnaire appraising the signals on aspects of temporality, selection, time and measurement-related biases and confounding by underlying disease or comedications. Through group discussion, the expert team will reach consensus on each of the medication exposure-outcome signal, thereby excluding spurious signals, leaving signals suggestive of causal associations for further evaluation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been obtained from the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee, SAIL Information Governance Review Panel, University of St. Andrews Teaching and Research Ethics Committee and Office for Research Ethics Committees Northern Ireland (ORECNI) for access and use of CPRD, SAIL, SMR and NIMATS data, respectively.

LAparoscopic Versus Abdominal hysterectomy (LAVA): protocol of a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

There is uncertainty about the advantages and disadvantages of laparoscopic hysterectomy compared with abdominal hysterectomy, particularly the relative rate of complications of the two procedures. While uptake of laparoscopic hysterectomy has been slow, the situation is changing with greater familiarity, better training, better equipment and increased proficiency in the technique. Thus, a large, robust, multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT) is needed to compare contemporary laparoscopic hysterectomy with abdominal hysterectomy to determine the safest and most cost-effective technique.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A parallel, open, non-inferiority, multicentre, randomised controlled, expertise-based surgery trial with integrated health economic evaluation and an internal pilot with an embedded qualitative process evaluation. A within trial-based economic evaluation will explore the cost-effectiveness of laparoscopic hysterectomy compared with open abdominal hysterectomy. We will aim to recruit 3250 women requiring a hysterectomy for a benign gynaecological condition and who were suitable for either laparoscopic or open techniques. The primary outcome is major complications up to six completed weeks postsurgery and the key secondary outcome is time from surgery to resumption of usual activities using the personalised Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Physical Function questionnaire. The principal outcome for the economic evaluation is to be cost per QALY at 12 months' postsurgery. A secondary analysis is to be undertaken to generate costs per major surgical complication avoided and costs per return to normal activities.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the West Midlands-Edgbaston Research Ethics Committee, 18 February 2021 (Ethics ref: 21/WM/0019). REC approval for the protocol version 2.0 dated 2 February 2021 was issued on 18 February 2021.We will present the findings in national and international conferences. We will also aim to publish the findings in high impact peer-reviewed journals. We will disseminate the completed paper to the Department of Health, the Scientific Advisory Committees of the RCOG, the Royal College of Nurses (RCN) and the BSGE.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN14566195.

The development of a core outcome set for studies of pregnant women with multimorbidity

BACKGROUND

Heterogeneity in reported outcomes can limit the synthesis of research evidence. A core outcome set informs what outcomes are important and should be measured as a minimum in all future studies. We report the development of a core outcome set applicable to observational and interventional studies of pregnant women with multimorbidity.

METHODS

We developed the core outcome set in four stages: (i) a systematic literature search, (ii) three focus groups with UK stakeholders, (iii) two rounds of Delphi surveys with international stakeholders and (iv) two international virtual consensus meetings. Stakeholders included women with multimorbidity and experience of pregnancy in the last 5 years, or are planning a pregnancy, their partners, health or social care professionals and researchers. Study adverts were shared through stakeholder charities and organisations.

RESULTS

Twenty-six studies were included in the systematic literature search (2017 to 2021) reporting 185 outcomes. Thematic analysis of the focus groups added a further 28 outcomes. Two hundred and nine stakeholders completed the first Delphi survey. One hundred and sixteen stakeholders completed the second Delphi survey where 45 outcomes reached Consensus In (≥70% of all participants rating an outcome as Critically Important). Thirteen stakeholders reviewed 15 Borderline outcomes in the first consensus meeting and included seven additional outcomes. Seventeen stakeholders reviewed these 52 outcomes in a second consensus meeting, the threshold was ≥80% of all participants voting for inclusion. The final core outcome set included 11 outcomes. The five maternal outcomes were as follows: maternal death, severe maternal morbidity, change in existing long-term conditions (physical and mental), quality and experience of care and development of new mental health conditions. The six child outcomes were as follows: survival of baby, gestational age at birth, neurodevelopmental conditions/impairment, quality of life, birth weight and separation of baby from mother for health care needs.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimorbidity in pregnancy is a new and complex clinical research area. Following a rigorous process, this complexity was meaningfully reduced to a core outcome set that balances the views of a diverse stakeholder group.

Prevalence of polypharmacy in pregnancy: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

The use of medications among pregnant women has been rising over the past few decades but the reporting of polypharmacy has been sporadic. The objective of this review is to identify literature reporting the prevalence of polypharmacy among pregnant women, the prevalence of multimorbidity in women taking multiple medications in pregnancy and associated effects on maternal and offspring outcomes.

DESIGN

MEDLINE and Embase were searched from their inception to 14 September 2021 for interventional trials, observational studies and systematic reviews reporting on the prevalence of polypharmacy or the use of multiple medications in pregnancy were included.Data on prevalence of polypharmacy, prevalence of multimorbidity, combinations of medications and pregnancy and offspring outcomes were extracted. A descriptive analysis was performed.

RESULTS

Fourteen studies met the review criteria. The prevalence of women being prescribed two or more medications during pregnancy ranged from 4.9% (4.3%-5.5%) to 62.4% (61.3%-63.5%), with a median of 22.5%. For the first trimester, prevalence ranged from 4.9% (4.7%-5.14%) to 33.7% (32.2%-35.1%). No study reported on the prevalence of multimorbidity, or associated pregnancy outcomes in women exposed to polypharmacy.

CONCLUSION

There is a significant burden of polypharmacy among pregnant women. There is a need for evidence on the combinations of medications prescribed in pregnancy, how this specifically affects women with multiple long-term conditions and the associated benefits and harms.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Our systematic review shows significant burden of polypharmacy in pregnancy but outcomes for women and offspring are unknown.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021223966.

Maternal and child outcomes for pregnant women with pre-existing multiple long-term conditions: protocol for an observational study in the UK

INTRODUCTION

One in five pregnant women has multiple pre-existing long-term conditions in the UK. Studies have shown that maternal multiple long-term conditions are associated with adverse outcomes. This observational study aims to compare maternal and child outcomes for pregnant women with multiple long-term conditions to those without multiple long-term conditions (0 or 1 long-term conditions).

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Pregnant women aged 15-49 years old with a conception date between 2000 and 2019 in the UK will be included with follow-up till 2019. The data source will be routine health records from all four UK nations (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (England), Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (Wales), Scotland routine health records and Northern Ireland Maternity System) and the Born in Bradford birth cohort. The exposure of two or more pre-existing, long-term physical or mental health conditions will be defined from a list of health conditions predetermined by women and clinicians. The association of maternal multiple long-term conditions with (a) antenatal, (b) peripartum, (c) postnatal and long-term and (d) mental health outcomes, for both women and their children will be examined. Outcomes of interest will be guided by a core outcome set. Comparisons will be made between pregnant women with and without multiple long-term conditions using modified Poisson and Cox regression. Generalised estimating equation will account for the clustering effect of women who had more than one pregnancy episode. Where appropriate, multiple imputation with chained equation will be used for missing data. Federated analysis will be conducted for each dataset and results will be pooled using random-effects meta-analyses.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Approval has been obtained from the respective data sources in each UK nation. Study findings will be submitted for publications in peer-reviewed journals and presented at key conferences.

Persistent Orofacial Pain Attendances at General Medical Practitioners

Patients with persistent orofacial pain (POFP) can go through complex care pathways to receive a diagnosis and management, which can negatively affect their pain. This study aimed to describe 44-y trends in attendances at Welsh medical practices for POFP and establish the number of attendances per patient and referrals associated with orofacial pain and factors that may predict whether a patient is referred. A retrospective observational study was completed using the nationwide Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank of visits to general medical practices in Wales (UK). Data were extracted using diagnostic codes ("Read codes"). Orofacial and migraine Read codes were extracted between 1974 and 2017. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Over the 44-y period, there were 468,827 POFP and migraine diagnostic codes, accounting for 468,137 patient attendances, or 301,832 patients. The overall attendance rate was 4.22 attendances per 1,000 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.21-4.23). The attendance rate increased over the study period. Almost one-third of patients (n = 92,192, 30.54%) attended more than once over the study period, and 15.83% attended more than once within a 12-mo period. There were 20,103 referral codes that were associated with 8,183 patients, with over half these patients being referred more than once. Odds of receiving a referral were highest in females (odds ratio [OR], 1.23; 95% CI, 1.17-1.29), in those living in rural locations (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.12-1.22), and in the least deprived quintile (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.29-1.48). Odds also increased with increasing age (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.03-1.03). The increasing attendance may be explained by the increasing incidence of POFP within the population. These patients can attend on a repeated basis, and very few are referred, but when they are, this may occur multiple times; therefore, current care pathways could be improved.

Polypharmacy during pregnancy and associated risk factors: a retrospective analysis of 577 medication exposures among 1.5 million pregnancies in the UK, 2000-2019

BACKGROUND

The number of medications prescribed during pregnancy has increased over the past few decades. Few studies have described the prevalence of multiple medication use among pregnant women. This study aims to describe the overall prevalence over the last two decades among all pregnant women and those with multimorbidity and to identify risk factors for polypharmacy in pregnancy.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted between 2000 and 2019 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) pregnancy register. Prescription records for 577 medication categories were obtained. Prevalence estimates for polypharmacy (ranging from 2+ to 11+ medications) were presented along with the medications commonly prescribed individually and in pairs during the first trimester and the entire pregnancy period. Logistic regression models were performed to identify risk factors for polypharmacy.

RESULTS

During the first trimester (812,354 pregnancies), the prevalence of polypharmacy ranged from 24.6% (2+ medications) to 0.1% (11+ medications). During the entire pregnancy period (774,247 pregnancies), the prevalence ranged from 58.7 to 1.4%. Broad-spectrum penicillin (6.6%), compound analgesics (4.5%) and treatment of candidiasis (4.3%) were commonly prescribed. Pairs of medication prescribed to manage different long-term conditions commonly included selective beta 2 agonists or selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs). Risk factors for being prescribed 2+ medications during the first trimester of pregnancy include being overweight or obese [aOR: 1.16 (1.14-1.18) and 1.55 (1.53-1.57)], belonging to an ethnic minority group [aOR: 2.40 (2.33-2.47), 1.71 (1.65-1.76), 1.41 (1.35-1.47) and 1.39 (1.30-1.49) among women from South Asian, Black, other and mixed ethnicities compared to white women] and smoking or previously smoking [aOR: 1.19 (1.18-1.20) and 1.05 (1.03-1.06)]. Higher and lower age, higher gravidity, increasing number of comorbidities and increasing level of deprivation were also associated with increased odds of polypharmacy.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of polypharmacy during pregnancy has increased over the past two decades and is particularly high in younger and older women; women with high BMI, smokers and ex-smokers; and women with multimorbidity, higher gravidity and higher levels of deprivation. Well-conducted pharmaco-epidemiological research is needed to understand the effects of multiple medication use on the developing foetus.

Planned delivery for pre-eclampsia between 34 and 37 weeks of gestation: the PHOENIX RCT

BACKGROUND

In women with late preterm pre-eclampsia (i.e. at 34+0 to 36+6 weeks' gestation), the optimal delivery time is unclear because limitation of maternal-fetal disease progression needs to be balanced against infant complications. The aim of this trial was to determine whether or not planned earlier initiation of delivery reduces maternal adverse outcomes without substantial worsening of perinatal or infant outcomes, compared with expectant management, in women with late preterm pre-eclampsia.

METHODS

We undertook an individually randomised, triple non-masked controlled trial in 46 maternity units across England and Wales, with an embedded health economic evaluation, comparing planned delivery and expectant management (usual care) in women with late preterm pre-eclampsia. The co-primary maternal outcome was a maternal morbidity composite or recorded systolic blood pressure of ≥ 160 mmHg (superiority hypothesis). The co-primary short-term perinatal outcome was a composite of perinatal deaths or neonatal unit admission (non-inferiority hypothesis). Analyses were by intention to treat, with an additional per-protocol analysis for the perinatal outcome. The primary 2-year infant neurodevelopmental outcome was measured using the PARCA-R (Parent Report of Children's Abilities-Revised) composite score. The planned sample size of the trial was 900 women; the trial is now completed. We undertook two linked substudies.

RESULTS

Between 29 September 2014 and 10 December 2018, 901 women were recruited; 450 women [448 women (two withdrew consent) and 471 infants] were allocated to planned delivery and 451 women (451 women and 475 infants) were allocated to expectant management. The incidence of the co-primary maternal outcome was significantly lower in the planned delivery group [289 (65%) women] than in the expectant management group [338 (75%) women] (adjusted relative risk 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.79 to 0.94; p = 0.0005). The incidence of the co-primary perinatal outcome was significantly higher in the planned delivery group [196 (42%) infants] than in the expectant management group [159 (34%) infants] (adjusted relative risk 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.47; p = 0.0034), but indicators of neonatal morbidity were similar in both groups. At 2-year follow-up, the mean PARCA-R scores were 89.5 points (standard deviation 18.2 points) for the planned delivery group (290 infants) and 91.9 points (standard deviation 18.4 points) for the expectant management group (256 infants), both within the normal developmental range (adjusted mean difference -2.4 points, 95% confidence interval -5.4 to 0.5 points; non-inferiority p = 0.147). Planned delivery was significantly cost-saving (-£2711, 95% confidence interval -£4840 to -£637) compared with expectant management. There were nine serious adverse events in the planned delivery group and 12 in the expectant management group.

CONCLUSION

In women with late preterm pre-eclampsia, planned delivery reduces short-term maternal morbidity compared with expectant management, with more neonatal unit admissions related to prematurity but no indicators of greater short-term neonatal morbidity (such as need for respiratory support). At 2-year follow-up, around 60% of parents reported follow-up scores. Average infant development was within the normal range for both groups; the small between-group mean difference in PARCA-R scores is unlikely to be clinically important. Planned delivery was significantly cost-saving to the health service. These findings should be discussed with women with late preterm pre-eclampsia to allow shared decision-making on timing of delivery.

LIMITATIONS

Limitations of the trial include the challenges of finding a perinatal outcome that adequately represented the potential risks of both groups and a maternal outcome that reflects the multiorgan manifestations of pre-eclampsia. The incidences of maternal and perinatal primary outcomes were higher than anticipated on the basis of previous studies, but this did not limit interpretation of the analysis. The trial was limited by a higher loss to follow-up rate than expected, meaning that the extent and direction of bias in outcomes (between responders and non-responders) is uncertain. A longer follow-up period (e.g. up to 5 years) would have enabled us to provide further evidence on long-term infant outcomes, but this runs the risk of greater attrition and increased expense.

FUTURE WORK

We identified a number of further questions that could be prioritised through a formal scoping process, including uncertainties around disease-modifying interventions, prognostic factors, longer-term follow-up, the perspectives of women and their families, meta-analysis with other studies, effect of a similar intervention in other health-care settings, and clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of other related policies around neonatal unit admission in late preterm birth.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial was prospectively registered as ISRCTN01879376.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research ( NIHR ) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Routine sterile glove and instrument change at the time of abdominal wound closure to prevent surgical site infection (ChEETAh): a pragmatic, cluster-randomised trial in seven low-income and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Surgical site infection (SSI) remains the most common complication of surgery around the world. WHO does not make recommendations for changing gloves and instruments before wound closure owing to a lack of evidence. This study aimed to test whether a routine change of gloves and instruments before wound closure reduced abdominal SSI.

METHODS

ChEETAh was a multicentre, cluster randomised trial in seven low-income and middle-income countries (Benin, Ghana, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa). Any hospitals (clusters) doing abdominal surgery in participating countries were eligible. Clusters were randomly assigned to current practice (42) versus intervention (39; routine change of gloves and instruments before wound closure for the whole scrub team). Consecutive adults and children undergoing emergency or elective abdominal surgery (excluding caesarean section) for a clean-contaminated, contaminated, or dirty operation within each cluster were identified and included. It was not possible to mask the site investigators, nor the outcome assessors, but patients were masked to the treatment allocation. The primary outcome was SSI within 30 days after surgery (participant-level), assessed by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria and on the basis of the intention-to-treat principle. The trial has 90% power to detect a minimum reduction in the primary outcome from 16% to 12%, requiring 12 800 participants from at least 64 clusters. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03700749.

FINDINGS

Between June 24, 2020 and March 31, 2022, 81 clusters were randomly assigned, which included a total of 13 301 consecutive patients (7157 to current practice and 6144 to intervention group). Overall, 11 825 (88·9%) of 13 301 patients were adults, 6125 (46·0%) of 13 301 underwent elective surgery, and 8086 (60·8%) of 13 301 underwent surgery that was clean-contaminated or 5215 (39·2%) of 13 301 underwent surgery that was contaminated-dirty. Glove and instrument change took place in 58 (0·8%) of 7157 patients in the current practice group and 6044 (98·3%) of 6144 patients in the intervention group. The SSI rate was 1280 (18·9%) of 6768 in the current practice group versus 931 (16·0%) of 5789 in the intervention group (adjusted risk ratio: 0·87, 95% CI 0·79-0·95; p=0·0032). There was no evidence to suggest heterogeneity of effect across any of the prespecified subgroup analyses. We did not anticipate or collect any specific data on serious adverse events.

INTERPRETATION

This trial showed a robust benefit to routinely changing gloves and instruments before abdominal wound closure. We suggest that it should be widely implemented into surgical practice around the world.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinician Scientist Award, NIHR Global Health Research Unit Grant, Mölnlycke Healthcare.

The association between early-life gut microbiota and childhood respiratory diseases: a systematic review

Data from animal models suggest a role of early-life gut microbiota in lung immune development, and in establishing susceptibility to respiratory infections and asthma in humans. This systematic review summarises the association between infant (ages 0-12 months) gut microbiota composition measured by genomic sequencing, and childhood (ages 0-18 years) respiratory diseases (ie, respiratory infections, wheezing, or asthma). Overall, there was evidence that low α-diversity and relative abundance of particular gut-commensal bacteria genera (Bifidobacterium, Faecalibacterium, Ruminococcus, and Roseburia) are associated with childhood respiratory diseases. However, results were inconsistent and studies had important limitations, including insufficient characterisation of bacterial taxa to species level, heterogeneous outcome definitions, residual confounding, and small sample sizes. Large longitudinal studies with stool sampling during the first month of life and shotgun metagenomic approaches to improve bacterial and fungal taxa resolution are needed. Standardising follow-up times and respiratory disease definitions and optimising causal statistical approaches might identify targets for primary prevention of childhood respiratory diseases.

Monofilament suture versus braided suture thread to improve pregnancy outcomes after vaginal cervical cerclage (C-STICH): a pragmatic randomised, controlled, phase 3, superiority trial

BACKGROUND

Miscarriage in the second trimester and preterm birth are significant global problems. Vaginal cervical cerclage is performed to prevent pregnancy loss and preterm birth. We aimed to determine the effectiveness of a monofilament suture thread compared with braided suture thread on pregnancy loss rates in women undergoing a cervical cerclage.

METHODS

C-STICH was a pragmatic, randomised, controlled, superiority trial done at 75 obstetric units in the UK. Women with a singleton pregnancy who received a vaginal cervical cerclage due to a history of pregnancy loss or premature birth, or if indicated by ultrasound, were centrally randomised (1:1) using minimisation to receive a monofilament suture or braided suture thread for their cervical cerclage. Women and outcome assessors were masked to allocation as far as possible. The primary outcome was pregnancy loss, defined as miscarriage, stillbirth, or neonatal death in the first week of life, analysed in the intention-to-treat population (ie, all women who were randomly assigned). Safety was also assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial was registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN15373349.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 21, 2015, and Jan 28, 2021, 2049 women were randomly assigned to receive a monofilament suture (n=1025) or braided suture (n=1024). The primary outcome was ascertained in 1003 women in the monofilament suture group and 993 women in the braided suture group. Pregnancy loss occurred in 80 (8·0%) of 1003 women in the monofilament suture group and 75 (7·6%) of 993 women in the braided suture group (adjusted risk ratio 1·05 [95% CI 0·79 to 1·40]; adjusted risk difference 0·002 [95% CI -0·02 to 0·03]).

INTERPRETATION

Monofilament suture did not reduce rate of pregnancy loss when compared with a braided suture. Clinicians should use the results of this trial to facilitate discussions around the choice of suture thread to optimise outcomes.

FUNDING

National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Systematic approach to outcome assessment from coded electronic healthcare records in the DaRe2THINK NHS-embedded randomized trial. Eur Heart J Digit Health 2022;3:426-436. [PMID: 36712153 PMCID: PMC9708037 DOI: 10.1093/ehjdh/ztac046]

Aims

Improving the efficiency of clinical trials is key to their continued importance in directing evidence-based patient care. Digital innovations, in particular the use of electronic healthcare records (EHRs), allow for large-scale screening and follow up of participants. However, it is critical these developments are accompanied by robust and transparent methods that can support high-quality and high clinical value research.

Methods and results

The DaRe2THINK trial includes a series of novel processes, including nationwide pseudonymized pre screening of the primary-care EHR across England, digital enrolment, remote e-consent, and 'no-visit' follow up by linking all primary- and secondary-care health data with patient-reported outcomes. DaRe2THINK is a pragmatic, healthcare-embedded randomized trial testing whether earlier use of direct oral anticoagulants in patients with prior or current atrial fibrillation can prevent thromboembolic events and cognitive decline (www.birmingham.ac.uk/dare2think). This study outlines the systematic approach and methodology employed to define patient information and outcome events. This includes transparency on all medical code lists and phenotypes used in the trial across a variety of national data sources, including Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum (primary care), Hospital Episode Statistics (secondary care), and the Office for National Statistics (mortality).

Conclusion

Co-designed by a patient and public involvement team, DaRe2THINK presents an opportunity to transform the approach to randomized trials in the setting of routine healthcare, providing high-quality evidence generation in populations representative of the community at risk.

The impact of preoperative oral nutrition supplementation on outcomes in patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery for cancer in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Malnutrition is an independent predictor for postoperative complications in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We systematically reviewed evidence on the impact of preoperative oral nutrition supplementation (ONS) on patients undergoing gastrointestinal cancer surgery in LMICs. We searched EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus, WHO Global Index Medicus, SciELO, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS) databases from inception to March 21, 2022 for randomised controlled trials evaluating preoperative ONS in gastrointestinal cancer within LMICs. We evaluated the impact of ONS on all postoperative outcomes using random-effects meta-analysis. Seven studies reported on 891 patients (446 ONS group, 445 control group) undergoing surgery for gastrointestinal cancer. Preoperative ONS reduced all cause postoperative surgical complications (risk ratio (RR) 0.53, 95% CI 0.46-0.60, P < 0.001, I² = 0%, n = 891), infection (0.52, 0.40-0.67, P = 0.008, I² = 0%, n = 570) and all-cause mortality (0.35, 0.26-0.47, P = 0.014, I² = 0%, n = 588). Despite heterogeneous populations and baseline rates, absolute risk ratio (ARR) was reduced for all cause (pooled effect -0.14, -0.22 to -0.06, P = 0.006; number needed to treat (NNT) 7) and infectious complications (-0.13, -0.22 to -0.06, P < 0.001; NNT 8). Preoperative nutrition in patients undergoing gastrointestinal cancer surgery in LMICs demonstrated consistently strong and robust treatment effects across measured outcomes. However additional higher quality research, with particular focus within African populations, are urgently required.

A randomized trial of synthetic osmotic cervical dilator for induction of labor vs dinoprostone vaginal insert

BACKGROUND

Induction of labor is a commonly performed obstetrical intervention. Vaginal prostaglandin E2 (dinoprostone) is a first-choice agent. Mechanical methods of induction are slower in achieving cervical ripening but have a lower risk of adverse effects.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the efficacy, maternal and neonatal safety, and maternal satisfaction of a synthetic osmotic cervical dilator (Dilapan-S) with those of dinoprostone.

STUDY DESIGN

This was an open-label superiority randomized controlled trial in 4 English hospitals. Eligible participants were women ≥16 years of age undergoing induction of labor for a singleton pregnancy at ≥37 weeks' gestation with vertex presentation and intact membranes. The women were randomly assigned to receive either Dilapan-S or dinoprostone using a telephone randomization system minimized by hospital, parity, body mass index, and maternal age. The induction agent was replaced as required until the cervix was assessed as favorable for labor by the Bishop score. The primary outcome was failure to achieve vaginal delivery (ieor a cesarean delivery being performed). The secondary outcome measures included maternal and neonatal adverse events. Analysis was by intention-to-treat, adjusting for design variables where possible.

RESULTS

Between December 19, 2017 and January 26, 2021, 674 women were randomized (337 to Dilapan-S, and 337 to dinoprostone). The trial did not reach its planned sample size of 860 participants because of restrictions on research during the COVID-19 pandemic. The primary outcome was missing for 2 women in the dinoprostone group. Failure to achieve vaginal delivery (or a cesarean delivery being performed) occurred in 126 women (37.4%) allocated to Dilapan-S and in 115 (34.3%) women allocated to dinoprostone (adjusted risk difference, 0.02; 95% confidence interval, -0.05 to 0.10). There were similar maternal and neonatal adverse events between the groups.

CONCLUSION

Women undergoing induction of labor with Dilapan-S have similar rates of cesarean delivery and maternal and neonatal adverse events compared with dinoprostone.

Long-term impact of pre-incision antibiotics on children born by caesarean section: a longitudinal study based on UK electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Since changes in the national guidance in 2011, prophylactic antibiotics for women undergoing caesarean section are recommended prior to skin incision, rather than after the baby's umbilical cord has been clamped. Evidence from randomised controlled trials conducted outside the UK has shown that this reduces maternal infectious morbidity; however, the prophylactic antibiotics also cross the placenta, meaning that babies are exposed to them around the time of birth. Antibiotics are known to affect the gut microbiota of the babies, but the long-term effects of exposure to high-dose broad-spectrum antibiotics around the time of birth on allergy and immune-related diseases are unknown.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to examine whether or not in-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth compared with no pre-incisional antibiotic exposure increases the risk of (1) asthma and (2) eczema in children born by caesarean section.

DESIGN

This was a controlled interrupted time series study.

SETTING

The study took place in primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Children born in the UK during 2006-18 delivered by caesarean section were compared with a control cohort delivered vaginally.

INTERVENTIONS

In-utero exposure to antibiotics immediately prior to birth.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Asthma and eczema in children in the first 5 years of life. Additional secondary outcomes, including other allergy-related conditions, autoimmune diseases, infections, other immune system-related diseases and neurodevelopmental conditions, were also assessed.

DATA SOURCES

The Health Improvement Network (THIN) and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) primary care databases and the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database. Previously published linkage strategies were adapted to link anonymised data on mothers and babies in these databases. Duplicate practices contributing to both THIN and the CPRD databases were removed to create a THIN-CPRD data set.

RESULTS

In the THIN-CPRD and HES data sets, records of 515,945 and 3,945,351 mother-baby pairs were analysed, respectively. The risk of asthma was not significantly higher in children born by caesarean section exposed to pre-incision antibiotics than in children whose mothers received post-cord clamping antibiotics, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.05) for diagnosis of asthma in primary care and an incidence rate ratio of 1.05 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 1.11) for asthma resulting in a hospital admission. We also did not find an increased risk of eczema, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.94 to1.03) and an incidence rate ratio of 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.29) for diagnosis in primary care and hospital admissions, respectively.

LIMITATIONS

It was not possible to ascertain the exposure to pre-incision antibiotics at an individual level. The maximum follow-up of children was 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

There was no evidence that the policy change from post-cord clamping to pre-incision prophylactic antibiotics for caesarean sections during 2006-18 had an impact on the incidence of asthma and eczema in early childhood in the UK.

FUTURE WORK

There is a need for further research to investigate if pre-incision antibiotics have any impact on developing asthma and other allergy and immune-related conditions in older children.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as researchregistry3736.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Long term impact of prophylactic antibiotic use before incision versus after cord clamping on children born by caesarean section: longitudinal study of UK electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact on child health up to age 5 years of a policy to use antibiotic prophylaxis for caesarean section before incision compared with after cord clamping.

DESIGN

Observational controlled interrupted time series study.

SETTING

UK primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS

515 945 children born in 2006-18 with linked maternal records and registered with general practices contributing to two UK primary care databases (The Health Improvement Network and Clinical Practice Research Datalink), and 7 147 884 children with linked maternal records in the Hospital Episode Statistics database covering England, of which 3 945 351 were linked to hospitals that reported the year of policy change to administer prophylactic antibiotics for caesarean section before incision rather than after cord clamping.

INTERVENTION

Fetal exposure to antibiotics shortly before birth (using pre-incision antibiotic policy as proxy) compared with no exposure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcomes were incidence rate ratios of asthma and eczema in children born by caesarean section when pre-incision prophylactic antibiotics were recommended compared with those born when antibiotics were administered post-cord clamping, adjusted for temporal changes in the incidence rates in children born vaginally.

RESULTS

Prophylactic antibiotics administered before incision for caesarean section compared with after cord clamping were not associated with a significantly higher risk of asthma (incidence rate ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.05) or eczema (0.98, 0.94 to 1.03), including asthma and eczema resulting in hospital admission (1.05, 0.99 to 1.11 and 0.96, 0.71 to 1.29, respectively), up to age 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found no evidence of an association between pre-incision prophylactic antibiotic use and risk of asthma and eczema in early childhood in children born by caesarean section.

Management and implications of severe COVID-19 in pregnancy in the UK: data from the UK Obstetric Surveillance System national cohort

Introduction

There is a lack of population level data on risk factors and impact of severe COVID‐19 in pregnancy. The aims of this study were to determine the characteristics, and maternal and perinatal outcomes associated with severe COVID‐19 in pregnancy compared with those with mild and moderate COVID‐19 and to explore the impact of timing of birth.

Material and methods

This was a secondary analysis of a national, prospective cohort study. All pregnant women admitted to hospital in the UK with symptomatic SARS‐CoV‐2 from March 1, 2020 to October 31, 2021 were included. The severity of maternal infection (need for high flow or invasive ventilation, intensive care admission or died), pregnancy and perinatal outcomes, and the impact of timing of birth were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression.

Results

Of 4436 pregnant women, 13.9% (n = 616) had severe infection. Women with severe infection were more likely to be aged ≥30 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] aged 30–39 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20–1.83), be overweight or obese (aOR 1.73, 95% CI 1.34–2.25 and aOR 2.52 95% CI 1.97–3.23, respectively), be of mixed ethnicity (aOR 1.93, 95% CI 1.17–3.21) or have gestational diabetes (aOR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09–1.87) compared with those with mild or moderate infection. Women with severe infection were more likely to have a pre‐labor cesarean birth (aOR 8.84, 95% CI 6.61–11.83), a very or extreme preterm birth (28–31+ weeks’ gestation, aOR 18.97, 95% CI 7.78–14.85; <28 weeks’ gestation, aOR 12.35, 95% CI 6.34–24.05) and their babies were more likely to be stillborn (aOR 2.51, 95% CI 1.35–4.66) or admitted to a neonatal unit (aOR 11.61, 95% CI 9.28–14.52). Of 112 women with severe infection who were discharged and gave birth at a later admission, the majority gave birth ≥36 weeks (85.7%), noting that three women in this group (2.7%) had a stillbirth.

Conclusions

Severe COVID‐19 in pregnancy increases the risk of adverse outcomes. Information to promote uptake of vaccination should specifically target those at greatest risk of severe outcomes. Decisions about timing of birth should be informed by multidisciplinary team discussion; however, our data suggest that women with severe infection who do not require early delivery have mostly good outcomes but that those with severe infection at term may warrant rapid delivery.

Developing chief investigators within the NHS: the West Midlands clinical trials scholars programme

Consecutive Royal College of Physicians' Research for all surveys have highlighted the challenges for doctors becoming involved in research. Local issues included under-representation of chief investigators (CIs) and reduction in dedicated research time. The West Midlands National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (CRN) established a clinical trials scholarship (CTS) initiative in 2019 to develop research-active consultants in smaller trusts, with a dedicated day per week embedded in a local clinical trials unit. In the initial round of 41 applications from 13 partner organisations, 17 CTSs were appointed, including nine consultant physicians, with one subsequently deferring. After 2 years, the remaining 16 CTSs have been awarded 40 grants totalling £18.35 million as CI or co-CI, including 10 NIHR grants, plus >200 publications. These scholarships are a proven cost-effective way to develop CIs, provide academic leadership and promote a research culture, even in small, previously less research-active trusts.

Epidemiology of pre-existing multimorbidity in pregnant women in the UK in 2018: a population-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Although maternal death is rare in the United Kingdom, 90% of these women had multiple health/social problems. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of pre-existing multimorbidity (two or more long-term physical or mental health conditions) in pregnant women in the United Kingdom (England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland).

STUDY DESIGN

Pregnant women aged 15-49 years with a conception date 1/1/2018 to 31/12/2018 were included in this population-based cross-sectional study, using routine healthcare datasets from primary care: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD, United Kingdom, n = 37,641) and Secure Anonymized Information Linkage databank (SAIL, Wales, n = 27,782), and secondary care: Scottish Morbidity Records with linked community prescribing data (SMR, Tayside and Fife, n = 6099). Pre-existing multimorbidity preconception was defined from 79 long-term health conditions prioritised through a workshop with patient representatives and clinicians.

RESULTS

The prevalence of multimorbidity was 44.2% (95% CI 43.7-44.7%), 46.2% (45.6-46.8%) and 19.8% (18.8-20.8%) in CPRD, SAIL and SMR respectively. When limited to health conditions that were active in the year before pregnancy, the prevalence of multimorbidity was still high (24.2% [23.8-24.6%], 23.5% [23.0-24.0%] and 17.0% [16.0 to 17.9%] in the respective datasets). Mental health conditions were highly prevalent and involved 70% of multimorbidity CPRD: multimorbidity with ≥one mental health condition/s 31.3% [30.8-31.8%]). After adjusting for age, ethnicity, gravidity, index of multiple deprivation, body mass index and smoking, logistic regression showed that pregnant women with multimorbidity were more likely to be older (CPRD England, adjusted OR 1.81 [95% CI 1.04-3.17] 45-49 years vs 15-19 years), multigravid (1.68 [1.50-1.89] gravidity ≥ five vs one), have raised body mass index (1.59 [1.44-1.76], body mass index 30+ vs body mass index 18.5-24.9) and smoked preconception (1.61 [1.46-1.77) vs non-smoker).

CONCLUSION

Multimorbidity is prevalent in pregnant women in the United Kingdom, they are more likely to be older, multigravid, have raised body mass index and smoked preconception. Secondary care and community prescribing dataset may only capture the severe spectrum of health conditions. Research is needed urgently to quantify the consequences of maternal multimorbidity for both mothers and children.

Severity of maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection and perinatal outcomes of women admitted to hospital during the omicron variant dominant period using UK Obstetric Surveillance System data: prospective, national cohort study

Objectives

To describe the severity of maternal infection when the omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant (B.1.1.529) was dominant (15 December 2021 to 14 March 2022) and describe outcomes by symptoms and vaccination status.

Design

Prospective, national cohort study using the UK Obstetric Surveillance System.

Setting

94 hospitals in the UK with a consultant led maternity unit.

Participants

Pregnant women admitted to hospital for any cause with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test.

Main outcome measures

Symptomatic or asymptomatic infection, vaccination status by doses before admission, and severity of maternal infection (moderate or severe infection according to modified World Health Organization's criteria).

Results

Of 3699 women who were admitted to hospital, 986 (26.7%, 95% confidence interval 25.3% to 28.1%) had symptoms; of these, 144 (14.6%, 12.5% to 17.0%) had a moderate to severe infection, 99 (10.4%, 8.6% to 12.5%) of 953 received respiratory support, and 30 (3.0%, 2.1% to 4.3%) were admitted to an intensive care unit. Covid-19 specific drug treatment was given to 13 (43.3%) of the 30 women in intensive care. Four women with symptoms died (0.4%, 0.1% to 1.1%). Vaccination status was known for 845 (85.6%) women with symptoms; 489 (58.9%) were unvaccinated and only 55 (6.5%) had three doses. Moderate to severe infection was reported for 93 (19.0%) of 489 unvaccinated women with symptoms, decreasing to three (5.5%) of 55 after three doses. Among the 30 women with symptoms who were admitted to intensive care, 23 (76.7%) were unvaccinated and none had received three doses.

Conclusion

Most women with severe covid-19 disease were unvaccinated and vaccine coverage among pregnant women admitted to hospital with SARS-CoV-2 was low. Ongoing action to prioritise and advocate for vaccine uptake in pregnancy is essential. A better understanding of the persistent low use of drug treatments is an urgent priority.

Trial registration

ISRCTN 40092247.

Severity of maternal infection and perinatal outcomes during periods of SARS-CoV-2 wildtype, alpha, and delta variant dominance in the UK: prospective cohort study

Objective

To compare the severity of maternal infection and perinatal outcomes during periods in which wildtype, alpha variant, and delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 were dominant in the UK.

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Setting

194 obstetric units across the UK, during the following periods: between 1 March and 30 November 2020 (wildtype dominance), between 1 December 2020 and 15 May 2021 (alpha variant dominance), and between 16 May and 31 October 2021 (delta variant dominance).

Participants

4436 pregnant women admitted to hospital with covid-19 related symptoms.

Main outcome measures

Moderate to severe maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection (indicated by any of the following: oxygen saturation <95% on admission, need for oxygen treatment, evidence of pneumonia on imaging, admission to intensive care, or maternal death), and pregnancy and perinatal outcomes (including mode and gestation of birth, stillbirth, live birth, admission to neonatal intensive care, and neonatal death).

Results

1387, 1613, and 1436 pregnant women were admitted to hospital with covid-19 related symptoms during the wildtype, alpha, and delta dominance periods, respectively; of these women, 340, 585, and 614 had moderate to severe infection, respectively. The proportion of pregnant women admitted with moderate to severe infection increased during the subsequent alpha and delta dominance periods, compared with the wildtype dominance period (wildtype 24.5% v alpha 36.2% (adjusted odds ratio 1.98, 95% confidence interval 1.66% to 2.37%); wildtype 24.5% v delta 42.8% (2.66, 2.21 to 3.20)). Compared with the wildtype dominance period, women admitted during the alpha dominance period were significantly more likely to have pneumonia, require respiratory support, and be admitted to intensive care; these three risks were even greater during the delta dominance period (wildtype v delta: pneumonia, adjusted odds ratio 2.52, 95% confidence interval 2.06 to 3.09; respiratory support, 1.90, 1.52 to 2.37; and intensive care, 2.71, 2.06 to 3.56). Of 1761 women whose vaccination status was known, 38 (2.2%) had one dose and 16 (1%) had two doses before their diagnosis (of whom 14 (88%) had mild infection). The proportion of women receiving drug treatment for SARS-CoV-2 management was low, but did increase between the wildtype dominance period and the alpha and delta dominance periods (10.4% wildtype v 14.9% alpha (2.74, 2.08 to 3.60); 10.4% wildtype v 13.6% delta (2.54, 1.90 to 3.38)).

Conclusions

While limited by the absence of variant sequencing data, these findings suggest that during the periods when the alpha and delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 were dominant, covid-19 was associated with more severe maternal infection and worse pregnancy outcomes than during the wildtype dominance period. Most women admitted with SARS-CoV-2 related symptoms were unvaccinated. Urgent action to prioritise vaccine uptake in pregnancy is essential.

Study registration

ISRCTN40092247.

Workforce Planning Models for Oral Health Care: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

For health care services to address the health care needs of populations and respond to changes in needs over time, workforces must be planned. This requires quantitative models to estimate future workforce requirements that take account of population size, oral health needs, evidence-based approaches to addressing needs, and methods of service provision that maximize productivity. The aim of this scoping review was to assess whether and how these 4 elements contribute to existing models of oral health workforce planning.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted. MEDLINE, Embase, HMIC, and EconLit were searched, all via OVID. Additionally, gray literature databases were searched and key bodies and policy makers contacted. Workforce planning models were included if they projected workforce numbers and were specific to oral health. No limits were placed on country. A single reviewer completed initial screening of abstracts; 2 independent reviewers completed secondary screening and data extraction. A narrative synthesis was conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 4,009 records were screened, resulting in 42 included articles detailing 47 models. The workforce planning models varied significantly in their use of data on oral health needs, evidence-based services, and provider productivity, with most models relying on observed levels of service utilization and demand.

CONCLUSIONS

This review has identified quantitative workforce planning models that aim to estimate future workforce requirements. Approaches to planning the oral health workforce are not always based on deriving workforce requirements from population oral health needs. In many cases, requirements are not linked to population needs, while in models where needs are included, they are constrained by the existence and availability of the required data. It is critical that information systems be developed to effectively capture data necessary to plan future oral health care workforces in ways that relate directly to the needs of the populations being served.

KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER STATEMENT

Policy makers can use the results of this study when making decisions about the planning of oral health care workforces and about the data to routinely collect within health services. Collection of suitable data will allow for the continual improvement of workforce planning, leading to a responsive health service and likely future cost savings.

Differences in the organisation of early pregnancy units and the effect of senior clinician presence, volume of patients and weekend opening on emergency hospital admissions: Findings from the VESPA Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the participation of consultant gynaecologists in delivering early pregnancy care results in a lower rate of acute hospital admissions.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study and emergency hospital care audit; data were collected as part of the national prospective mixed-methods VESPA study on the "Variations in the organization of EPAUs in the UK and their effects on clinical, Service and PAtient-centred outcomes".

SETTING

44 Early Pregnancy Assessment Units (EPAUs) across the UK randomly selected in balanced numbers from eight pre-defined mutually exclusive strata.

PARTICIPANTS

6606 pregnant women (≥16 years old) with suspected first trimester pregnancy complications attending the participating EPAUs or Emergency Departments (ED) from December 2016 to July 2017.

EXPOSURES

Planned and actual senior clinician presence, unit size, and weekend opening.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Unplanned admissions to hospital following any visit for investigations or treatment for first trimester complications as a proportion of women attending EPAUs.

RESULTS

205/6397 (3.2%; 95% CI 2.8-3.7) women were admitted following their EPAU attendance. The admission rate among 44 units ranged from 0% to 13.7% (median 2.8). Neither planned senior clinician presence (p = 0.874) nor unit volume (p = 0.247) were associated with lower admission rates from EPAU, whilst EPAU opening over the weekend resulted in lower admission rates (p = 0.027). 1445/5464 (26.4%; 95%CI 25.3 to 27.6) women were admitted from ED. There was little evidence of an association with planned senior clinician time (p = 0.280) or unit volume (p = 0.647). Keeping an EPAU open over the weekend for an additional hour was associated with 2.4% (95% CI 0.1% to 4.7%) lower odds of an emergency admission from ED.

CONCLUSIONS

Involvement of senior clinicians in delivering early pregnancy care has no significant impact on emergency hospital admissions for early pregnancy complications. Weekend opening, however, may be an effective way of reducing emergency admissions from ED.

Protocol for the development of a core outcome set for studies of pregnant women with pre-existing multimorbidity

INTRODUCTION

Increasingly more pregnant women are living with pre-existing multimorbidity (≥two long-term physical or mental health conditions). This may adversely affect maternal and offspring outcomes. This study aims to develop a core outcome set (COS) for maternal and offspring outcomes in pregnant women with pre-existing multimorbidity. It is intended for use in observational and interventional studies in all pregnancy settings.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We propose a four stage study design: (1) systematic literature search, (2) focus groups, (3) Delphi surveys and (4) consensus group meeting. The study will be conducted from June 2021 to August 2022. First, an initial list of outcomes will be identified through a systematic literature search of reported outcomes in studies of pregnant women with multimorbidity. We will search the Cochrane library, Medline, EMBASE and CINAHL. This will be supplemented with relevant outcomes from published COS for pregnancies and childbirth in general, and multimorbidity. Second, focus groups will be conducted among (1) women with lived experience of managing pre-existing multimorbidity in pregnancy (and/or their partners) and (2) their healthcare/social care professionals to identify outcomes important to them. Third, these initial lists of outcomes will be prioritised through a three-round online Delphi survey using predefined score criteria for consensus. Participants will be invited to suggest additional outcomes that were not included in the initial list. Finally, a consensus meeting using the nominal group technique will be held to agree on the final COS. The stakeholders will include (1) women (and/or their partners) with lived experience of managing multimorbidity in pregnancy, (2) healthcare/social care professionals involved in their care and (3) researchers in this field.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by the University of Birmingham's ethical review committee. The final COS will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publication and conferences and to all stakeholders.

Factors influencing perinatal outcomes in women with preterm preeclampsia: A secondary analysis of the PHOENIX trial

This secondary analysis of the PHOENIX trial (evaluating planned delivery against expectant management in late preterm preeclampsia) demonstrates that in women who started induction of labour, 63% of women delivered vaginally (56% at 34 weeks' gestation). Compared to expectant management, planned delivery was associated with higher rates of neonatal unit admission for prematurity (but lower proportions of small-for-gestational age infants); length of neonatal unit stay and neonatal morbidity (including respiratory support) were similar across both intervention groups at all gestational windows. Neonatal unit admission was increased by earlier gestation at delivery, development of severe preeclampsia, and being small-for-gestational age.

Prospective randomised trial examining the impact of an educational intervention versus usual care on anticoagulation therapy control based on an SAMe-TT2R2 score-guided strategy in anticoagulant-naïve Thai patients with atrial fibrillation (TREATS-AF): a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

The burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) in Thailand is high and associated with increased morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. Vitamin K antagonists (eg, warfarin), commonly used for stroke prevention in patients with AF in Thailand, are effective but are often suboptimally controlled. We aim to evaluate the impact of an SAMe-TT₂R₂ score-guided strategy and educational intervention compared to usual care on anticoagulation control expressed by the time in therapeutic range (TTR) at 12 months, in anticoagulant-naïve Thai patients with AF.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Multicentre, open-label, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial conducted in Thailand among adult patients (age: 18 years) with AF who are anticoagulant naïve. Patients will be randomised to one of two groups; an SAMe-TT₂R₂ score-guided strategy with educational intervention and usual care versus usual care alone. The planned follow-up period is 12 months. The primary outcome is TTR at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include: (1) TTR at 6 months; (2) thromboembolic and bleeding events at 12 months; (3) composite major adverse cardiovascular events at 12 months; (4) change in patients' knowledge of AF between baseline and 6 months and 12 months; (5) cost effectiveness; (6) quality of life at baseline, 6 months and 12 months using EQ-5D-5L (Thai version) and (7) patient satisfaction/perceptions of the TREAT intervention. An embedded qualitative study will assess patient perceptions of the TREAT intervention.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the Ethical Review Committee, Ministry of Public Health of Thailand, and registered in the Thai Clinical Trials Registry. The results of this trial will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Participants will be informed via a link to a preview of the publication. A lay summary will also be provided to all participants prior to publication.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

TCTR20180711003.

Dental Attendances to General Medical Practitioners in Wales: A 44 Year-Analysis

One-third of the UK population is composed of problem-oriented dental attenders, seeking dental care only when they have acute dental pain or problems. Patients seek urgent dental care from a range of health care professionals, including general medical practitioners. This study aimed to identify trends in dental attendance at Welsh medical practices over a 44-y period, specifically in relation to dental policy change and factors associated with repeat attendance. A retrospective observational study was completed via the nationwide Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank of visits to general medical practice in Wales. Read codes associated with dental diagnoses were extracted for patients attending their general medical practitioner between 1974 and 2017. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Over the 44-y period, there were 439,361 dental Read codes, accounting for 288,147 patient attendances. The overall attendance rate was 2.60 attendances per 1,000 patient-years (95% CI, 2.59 to 2.61). The attendance rate was negligible through 1987 but increased sharply to 5.0 per 1,000 patient-years in 2006 (95% CI, 4.94 to 5.09) before almost halving to 2.6 per 1,000 in 2017 (95% CI, 2.53 to 2.63) to a pattern that coincided with changes to National Health Service policies. Overall 26,312 patients were repeat attenders and were associated with living in an area classified as urban and deprived (odds ratio [OR], 1.22; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.25; P < 0.0001) or rural (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.85; P < 0.0001). Repeat attendance was associated with greater odds of having received an antibiotic prescription (OR, 2.53; 95% CI, 2.50 to 2.56; P < 0.0001) but lower odds of having been referred to another service (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.81; P < 0.0001). Welsh patients’ reliance on medical care for dental problems was influenced by social deprivation and health policy. This indicates that future interventions to discourage dental attendance at medical practitioners should be targeted at those in the most deprived urban areas or rural areas. In addition, health policy may influence attendance rates positively and negatively and should be considered in the future when decisions related to policy change are made.

C-STICH: Cerclage Suture Type for an Insufficient Cervix and its effect on Health outcomes-a multicentre randomised controlled trial

Background

Preterm birth is associated with significant mortality and morbidity for mothers and babies. Women are identified as high risk for preterm birth based on either previous medical/pregnancy history or on ultrasound assessment of the cervix. Women identified as high risk can be offered a cervical cerclage (a purse string stitch) around the cervix (neck of the womb) to reduce the risk of preterm birth. In women who have a cervical cerclage, the procedure can be performed using either a monofilament (single-stranded) or braided (woven) suture material. Both suture materials are routinely used for cervical cerclage and there is uncertainty as to which is superior.

Methods

A multicentre, open, randomised controlled superiority trial of 2050 women presenting at obstetric units, deemed to be at risk of preterm birth and already scheduled to have a cervical cerclage as part of their standard care. Inclusion criteria include singleton pregnancies and an indication for cervical cerclage for either a history of three or more previous mid-trimester losses or premature births (≤ 28 weeks), insertion of cervical sutures in previous pregnancies, a history of mid trimester loss or premature birth with a (current) shortened (≤ 25 mm) cervix, or women whom clinicians deem to be at risk of preterm birth either by history or the results of an ultrasound scan. Exclusion criteria include women who have taken part in C-STICH previously, are aged less than 18 years old at the time of presentation, require a rescue cerclage, and are unwilling or unable to give informed consent and in whom a cerclage will be placed by any route other than vaginally (e.g. via an abdominal route). Following informed consent, women are randomised on a 1:1 basis to either monofilament or braided suture, by minimisation. The primary outcome is pregnancy loss (miscarriage and perinatal mortality, including any stillbirth or neonatal death in the first week of life), and secondary outcomes include the core outcome set for preterm birth trials.

Discussion

Optimising established interventions to prevent preterm birth is important in reducing perinatal mortality rates.

Trial registration

ISRCTN 15373349. Registered before recruitment on 03 December 2014 prior to first recruit.

Placebo comparator group selection and use in surgical trials: the ASPIRE project including expert workshop

BACKGROUND

The use of placebo comparisons for randomised trials assessing the efficacy of surgical interventions is increasingly being considered. However, a placebo control is a complex type of comparison group in the surgical setting and, although powerful, presents many challenges.

OBJECTIVES

To provide a summary of knowledge on placebo controls in surgical trials and to summarise any recommendations for designers, evaluators and funders of placebo-controlled surgical trials.

DESIGN

To carry out a state-of-the-art workshop and produce a corresponding report involving key stakeholders throughout.

SETTING

A workshop to discuss and summarise the existing knowledge and to develop the new guidelines.

RESULTS

To assess what a placebo control entails and to assess the understanding of this tool in the context of surgery is considered, along with when placebo controls in surgery are acceptable (and when they are desirable). We have considered ethics arguments and regulatory requirements, how a placebo control should be designed, how to identify and mitigate risk for participants in these trials, and how such trials should be carried out and interpreted. The use of placebo controls is justified in randomised controlled trials of surgical interventions provided that there is a strong scientific and ethics rationale. Surgical placebos might be most appropriate when there is poor evidence for the efficacy of the procedure and a justified concern that results of a trial would be associated with a high risk of bias, particularly because of the placebo effect.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of placebo controls is justified in randomised controlled trials of surgical interventions provided that there is a strong scientific and ethics rationale. Feasibility work is recommended to optimise the design and implementation of randomised controlled trials. An outline for best practice was produced in the form of the Applying Surgical Placebo in Randomised Evaluations (ASPIRE) guidelines for those considering the use of a placebo control in a surgical randomised controlled trial.

LIMITATIONS

Although the workshop participants involved international members, the majority of participants were from the UK. Therefore, although every attempt was made to make the recommendations applicable to all health systems, the guidelines may, unconsciously, be particularly applicable to clinical practice in the UK NHS.

FUTURE WORK

Future work should evaluate the use of the ASPIRE guidelines in making decisions about the use of a placebo-controlled surgical trial. In addition, further work is required on the appropriate nomenclature to adopt in this space.

FUNDING

Funded by the Medical Research Council UK and the National Institute for Health Research as part of the Medical Research Council-National Institute for Health Research Methodology Research programme.

C-STICH2: emergency cervical cerclage to prevent miscarriage and preterm birth-study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background

Cervical cerclage is a recognised treatment to prevent late miscarriage and pre-term birth (PTB). Emergency cervical cerclage (ECC) for cervical dilatation with exposed unruptured membranes is less common and the potential benefits of cerclage are less certain. A randomised control trial is needed to accurately assess the effectiveness of ECC in preventing pregnancy loss compared to an expectant approach.

Methods

C-STICH2 is a multicentre randomised controlled trial in which women presenting with cervical dilatation and unruptured exposed membranes at 16 + 0 to 27 + 6 weeks gestation are randomised to ECC or expectant management. Trial design includes 18 month internal pilot with embedded qualitative process evaluation, minimal data set and a within-trial health economic analysis.

Inclusion criteria are ≥16 years, singleton pregnancy, exposed membranes at the external os, gestation 16 + 0–27 + 6 weeks, and informed consent. Exclusion criteria are contraindication to cerclage, cerclage in situ or previous cerclage in this pregnancy.

Randomisation occurs via an online service in a 1:1 ratio, using a minimisation algorithm to reduce chance imbalances in key prognostic variables (site, gestation and dilatation). Primary outcome is pregnancy loss; a composite including miscarriage, termination of pregnancy and perinatal mortality defined as stillbirth and neonatal death in the first week of life. Secondary outcomes include all core outcomes for PTB. Two-year development outcomes will be assessed using general health and Parent Report of Children’s Abilities-Revised (PARCA-R) questionnaires. Intended sample size is 260 participants (130 each arm) based on 60% rate of pregnancy loss in the expectant management arm and 40% in the ECC arm, with 90% power and alpha 0.05. Analysis will be by intention-to-treat.

Discussion

To date there has been one small trial of ECC in 23 participants which included twin and singleton pregnancies. This small trial along with the largest observational study (n = 161) found ECC to prolong pregnancy duration and reduce deliveries before 34 weeks gestation. It is important to generate high quality evidence on the effectiveness of ECC in preventing pregnancy loss, and improve understanding of the prevalence of the condition and frequency of complications associated with ECC. An adequately powered RCT will provide the highest quality evidence regarding optimum care for these women and their babies.

Trial registration

ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN12981869. Registered on 13th June 2018.

Adherence to Traditional Chinese Postpartum Practices and Postpartum Depression: A Cross-Sectional Study in Hunan, China

Background: The relationship between adherence to traditional Chinese postpartum practices (known as "doing-the-month") and postpartum depression (PPD) remains unknown. Practices including restrictions on diet, housework and social activity, personal hygiene, and cold contact, could introduce biological, psychological, and socio-environmental changes during postpartum. Methods: The cross-sectional study included 955 postpartum women in obstetric clinics in Hunan Province of China between September 2018 to June 2019. Thirty postpartum practices were collected by a self-report online structured questionnaire. Postpartum depression symptoms were assessed by the Chinese version of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Multivariable linear regression was used to estimate the differences in EPDS scores according to adherence to postpartum practices. Firth's bias-reduced logistic regression was employed to analyze the binary classification of having PPD symptoms (EPDS ≥ 10). Results: Overall, both moderate and low adherence to postpartum practices appeared to be associated with higher EPDS scores (adjusted difference 1.07, 95% CI 0.20, 1.94 for overall moderate adherence; and adjusted difference 1.72, 95% CI 0.84, 2.60 for overall low adherence). In analyses by practice domain, low adherence to housework-related and social activity restrictions was associated with having PPD symptoms compared with high adherence (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.07, 2.43). Conclusions: Low adherence to traditional Chinese postpartum practices was associated with higher EPDS scores indicating PPD symptoms, especially in the domain of housework-related and social activity restrictions. Psychosocial stress and unsatisfactory practical support related to low adherence to postpartum practices might contribute to PPD. Longitudinal study and clinical assessment would be needed to confirm these findings.

The incidence, characteristics and outcomes of pregnant women hospitalized with symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in the UK from March to September 2020: A national cohort study using the UK Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS)

Background

There is a lack of population level data on risk factors, incidence and impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnant women and their babies. The primary aim of this study was to describe the incidence, characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized pregnant women with symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 in the UK compared to pregnant women without SARS-CoV-2.

Methods and findings

We conducted a national, prospective cohort study of all hospitalized pregnant women with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 from 01/03/2020 to 31/08/2020 using the UK Obstetric Surveillance System. Incidence rates were estimated using national maternity data. Overall, 1148 hospitalized women had confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in pregnancy, 63% of which were symptomatic. The estimated incidence of hospitalization with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 was 2.0 per 1000 maternities (95% CI 1.9–2.2) and for asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 was 1.2 per 1000 maternities (95% CI 1.1–1.4). Compared to pregnant women without SARS-CoV-2, women hospitalized with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 were more likely to be overweight or obese (adjusted OR 1.86, (95% CI 1.39–2.48) and aOR 2.07 (1.53–2.29)), to be of Black, Asian or Other minority ethnic group (aOR 6.24, (3.93–9.90), aOR 4.36, (3.19–5.95) and aOR 12.95, (4.93–34.01)), and to have a relevant medical comorbidity (aOR 1.83 (1.32–2.54)). Hospitalized pregnant women with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 were more likely to be admitted to intensive care (aOR 57.67, (7.80–426.70)) but the absolute risk of poor outcomes was low. Cesarean births and neonatal unit admission were increased regardless of symptom status (symptomatic aOR 2.60, (1.97–3.42) and aOR 3.08, (1.99–4.77); asymptomatic aOR 2.02, (1.52–2.70) and aOR 1.84, (1.12–3.03)). The risks of stillbirth or neonatal death were not significantly increased, regardless of symptom status.

Conclusions

We have identified factors that increase the risk of symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 in pregnancy. Clinicians can be reassured that the majority of women do not experience severe complications of SARS-CoV-2 in pregnancy.

Fetal umbilical artery Doppler as a tool for universal third trimester screening: A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy

The objective of this study was to investigate the accuracy of universal third trimester umbilical artery (UA) Doppler to predict adverse pregnancy outcome at term. We searched Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane library and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to October 2020 and we also analyzed previously unpublished data from a prospective cohort study of nulliparous women, the Pregnancy Outcome Prediction (POP) study. We included studies that performed a third-trimester ultrasound scan in unselected, low or mixed risk populations, excluding studies which only included high risk pregnancies. Meta-analysis was performed using the hierarchal summary receiver operating characteristic curve (HSROC) analysis and bivariate logit-normal models. We identified 13 studies (including the POP study) involving 67,764 pregnancies which met our inclusion criteria. The overall quality was variable and only six studies (N = 5777 patients) blinded clinicians to the UA Doppler result. The summary sensitivity and positive likelihood ratio (LR) for small for gestational age (SGA; birthweight <10th centile) were 21.7% (95% CI 13.2-33.6%) and 2.65 (95% CI 1.89-3.72) respectively. The summary positive LR for NICU admission and metabolic acidosis were 1.35 (95% CI 0.93-1.97) and 1.34 (95% CI 0.86-2.08) respectively. The results were similar in the POP study: associations with SGA (positive LR 2.66 [95% CI 2.11-3.36]) and severe SGA (birthweight <3rd centile; positive LR 3.27 [95% CI 2.29-4.68]) but no statistically significant association with neonatal morbidity. We conclude that third trimester UA Doppler has moderate predictive accuracy for small for gestational age but not for indicators of neonatal morbidity in unselected and low risk pregnancies.

Economic evaluation of computerised interpretation of fetal heart rate during labour: a cost-consequence analysis alongside the INFANT study

OBJECTIVE

Economic evaluation of computerised decision-support software intended to assist in the interpretation of a cardiotocography (CTG) during birth.

DESIGN

Individual patient level data from the INFANT study (an unmasked randomised controlled trial).

SETTING

Maternity units in the UK and Ireland.

POPULATION

Singleton or twin pregnancy women of 35 weeks' gestation or more and receiving continuous electronic fetal monitoring during labour.

INTERVENTION

Computerised decision-support software.

METHODS

Cost-consequence analysis presenting costs and outcomes with a time horizon of 2 years from a government healthcare perspective. Unit cost data collected from a combination of primary and secondary sources.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary clinical outcomes were (i) composite 'poor neonatal outcome' and (ii) developmental assessment at age 2 years in a subset of surviving children. Mean cost per mother and infant dyad from birth to hospital discharge, and from hospital discharge to 24 months follow-up. Maternal health-related quality of life was assessed at 12 and 24 months follow-up using the EuroQol three-level health-related quality of life instrument (EQ-5D-3L).

RESULTS

Data were analysed for 46 042 women and 46 614 infants. No statistically significant differences were detected between trial arms in any of the primary clinical outcomes or maternal quality of life. No statistically significant differences in costs were detected in maternal or infant costs from trial entry to hospital discharge or overall from hospital discharge to 2-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Decision-support software during labour is not associated with additional maternal or infant benefits and over a 2-year period the software did not lead to additional costs or savings to the National Health Service.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN98680152.

Universal late pregnancy ultrasound screening to predict adverse outcomes in nulliparous women: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Currently, pregnant women are screened using ultrasound to perform gestational aging, typically at around 12 weeks' gestation, and around the middle of pregnancy. Ultrasound scans thereafter are performed for clinical indications only.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to assess the case for offering universal late pregnancy ultrasound to all nulliparous women in the UK. The main questions addressed were the diagnostic effectiveness of universal late pregnancy ultrasound to predict adverse outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of either implementing universal ultrasound or conducting further research in this area.

DESIGN

We performed diagnostic test accuracy reviews of five ultrasonic measurements in late pregnancy. We conducted cost-effectiveness and value-of-information analyses of screening for fetal presentation, screening for small for gestational age fetuses and screening for large for gestational age fetuses. Finally, we conducted a survey and a focus group to determine the willingness of women to participate in a future randomised controlled trial.

DATA SOURCES

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from inception to June 2019.

REVIEW METHODS

The protocol for the review was designed a priori and registered. Eligible studies were identified using keywords, with no restrictions for language or location. The risk of bias in studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Health economic modelling employed a decision tree analysed via Monte Carlo simulation. Health outcomes were from the fetal perspective and presented as quality-adjusted life-years. Costs were from the perspective of the public sector, defined as NHS England, and the costs of special educational needs. All costs and quality-adjusted life-years were discounted by 3.5% per annum and the reference case time horizon was 20 years.

RESULTS

Umbilical artery Doppler flow velocimetry, cerebroplacental ratio, severe oligohydramnios and borderline oligohydramnios were all either non-predictive or weakly predictive of the risk of neonatal morbidity (summary positive likelihood ratios between 1 and 2) and were all weakly predictive of the risk of delivering a small for gestational age infant (summary positive likelihood ratios between 2 and 4). Suspicion of fetal macrosomia is strongly predictive of the risk of delivering a large infant, but it is only weakly, albeit statistically significantly, predictive of the risk of shoulder dystocia. Very few studies blinded the result of the ultrasound scan and most studies were rated as being at a high risk of bias as a result of treatment paradox, ascertainment bias or iatrogenic harm. Health economic analysis indicated that universal ultrasound for fetal presentation only may be both clinically and economically justified on the basis of existing evidence. Universal ultrasound including fetal biometry was of borderline cost-effectiveness and was sensitive to assumptions. Value-of-information analysis indicated that the parameter that had the largest impact on decision uncertainty was the net difference in cost between an induced delivery and expectant management.

LIMITATIONS

The primary literature on the diagnostic effectiveness of ultrasound in late pregnancy is weak. Value-of-information analysis may have underestimated the uncertainty in the literature as it was focused on the internal validity of parameters, which is quantified, whereas the greatest uncertainty may be in the external validity to the research question, which is unquantified.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal screening for presentation at term may be justified on the basis of current knowledge. The current literature does not support universal ultrasonic screening for fetal growth disorders.

FUTURE WORK

We describe proof-of-principle randomised controlled trials that could better inform the case for screening using ultrasound in late pregnancy.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017064093.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 15. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries

BACKGROUND

80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality.

METHODS

This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494.

FINDINGS

Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70-8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39-8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11-3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26-11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08-7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications.

INTERPRETATION

Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit.

Establishing the safety of waterbirth for mothers and babies: a cohort study with nested qualitative component: the protocol for the POOL study

INTRODUCTION

Approximately 60 000 (9/100) infants are born into water annually in the UK and this is likely to increase. Case reports identified infants with water inhalation or sepsis following birth in water and there is a concern that women giving birth in water may sustain more complex perineal trauma. There have not been studies large enough to show whether waterbirth increases these poor outcomes. The POOL Study (ISRCTN13315580) plans to answer the question about the safety of waterbirths among women who are classified appropriate for midwifery-led intrapartum care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A cohort study with a nested qualitative component. Objectives will be answered using retrospective and prospective data captured in electronic National Health Service (NHS) maternity and neonatal systems. The qualitative component aims to explore factors influencing pool use and waterbirth; data will be gathered via discussion groups, interviews and case studies of maternity units.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The protocol has been approved by NHS Wales Research Ethics Committee (18/WA/0291) the transfer of identifiable data has been approved by Health Research Authority Confidentiality Advisory Group (18CAG0153).Study findings and innovative methodology will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conferences and events. Results will be of interest to the general public, clinical and policy stakeholders in the UK and will be disseminated accordingly.

Impact of obstetric unit closures, travel time and distance to obstetric services on maternal and neonatal outcomes in high-income countries: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review (1) The effect of obstetric unit (OU) closures on maternal and neonatal outcomes and (2) The association between travel distance/time to an OU and maternal and neonatal outcomes.

DESIGN

Systematic review of any quantitative studies with a comparison group.

DATA SOURCES

Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Applied Social Science Index and Abstracts, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health and grey literature were searched.

METHODS

Eligible studies explored the impact of closure of an OU or the effect of travel distance/time on prespecified maternal or neonatal outcomes. Only studies of women giving birth in high-income countries with universal health coverage of maternity services comparable to the UK were included. Identification of studies, extraction of data and risk of bias assessment were undertaken by at least two reviewers independently. The risk of bias checklist was based on the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care criteria and the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Heterogeneity across studies precluded meta-analysis and synthesis was narrative, with key findings tabulated.

RESULTS

31 studies met the inclusion criteria. There was some evidence to suggest an increase in babies born before arrival following OU closures and/or associated with longer travel distances or time. This may be associated with an increased risk of perinatal or neonatal mortality, but this finding was not consistent across studies. Evidence on other maternal and neonatal outcomes was limited but did not suggest worse outcomes after closures or with longer travel times/distances. Interpretation of findings for some studies was hampered by concerns around how accurately exposures were measured, and/or a lack of adjustment for confounders or temporal changes.

CONCLUSION

It is not possible to conclude from this review whether OU closure, increased travel distances or times are associated with worse outcomes for the mother or the baby.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42017078503.

Variations in the organisation of and outcomes from Early Pregnancy Assessment Units: the VESPA mixed-methods study

Background

Early pregnancy complications are common and account for the largest proportion of emergency work in gynaecology. Although early pregnancy assessment units operate in most UK acute hospitals, recent National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidance emphasised the need for more research to identify configurations that provide the optimal balance between cost-effectiveness, clinical effectiveness and service- and patient-centred outcomes [National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Ectopic Pregnancy and Miscarriage: Diagnosis and Initial Management. URL: http://guidance.nice.org.uk/CG154 (accessed 23 March 2016)].

Objectives

The primary aim was to test the hypothesis that the rate of hospital admissions for early pregnancy complications is lower in early pregnancy assessment units with high consultant presence than in units with low consultant presence. The key secondary objectives were to assess the effect of increased consultant presence on other clinical outcomes, to explore patient satisfaction with the quality of care and to make evidence-based recommendations about the future configuration of UK early pregnancy assessment units.

Design

The Variations in the organisations of Early Pregnancy Assessment Units in the UK and their effects on clinical, Service and PAtient-centred outcomes (VESPA) study employed a multimethods approach and included a prospective cohort study of women attending early pregnancy assessment units to measure clinical outcomes, an economic evaluation, a patient satisfaction survey, qualitative interviews with service users, an early pregnancy assessment unit staff survey and a hospital emergency care audit.

Setting

The study was conducted in 44 early pregnancy assessment units across the UK.

Participants

Participants were pregnant women (aged ≥ 16 years) attending the early pregnancy assessment units or other hospital emergency services because of suspected early pregnancy complications. Staff members directly involved in providing early pregnancy care completed the staff survey.

Main outcome measure

Emergency hospital admissions as a proportion of women attending the participating early pregnancy assessment units.

Methods

Data sources – demographic and routine clinical data were collected from all women attending the early pregnancy assessment units. For women who provided consent to complete the questionnaires, clinical data and questionnaires were linked using the women’s study number. Data analysis and results reporting – the relationships between clinical outcomes and consultant presence, unit volume and weekend opening hours were investigated using appropriate regression models. Qualitative interviews with women, and patient and staff satisfaction, health economic and workforce analyses were also undertaken, accounting for consultant presence, unit volume and weekend opening hours.

Results

We collected clinical data from 6606 women. There was no evidence of an association between admission rate and consultant presence (p = 0.497). Health economic evaluation and workforce analysis data strands indicated that lower-volume units with no consultant presence were associated with lower costs than their alternatives.

Limitations

The relatively low level of direct consultant involvement could explain the lack of significant impact on quality of care. We were also unable to estimate the potential impact of factors such as scanning practices, level of supervision, quality of ultrasound equipment and clinical care pathway protocols.

Conclusions

We have shown that consultant presence in the early pregnancy assessment unit has no significant impact on key outcomes, such as the proportion of women admitted to hospital as an emergency, pregnancy of unknown location rates, ratio of new to follow-up visits, negative laparoscopy rate and patient satisfaction. All data strands indicate that low-volume units run by senior or specialist nurses and supported by sonographers and consultants may represent the optimal early pregnancy assessment unit configuration.

Future work

Our results show that further research is needed to assess the potential impact of enhanced clinical and ultrasound training on the performance of all disciplines working in early pregnancy assessment units.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN10728897.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 8, No. 46. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Universal third-trimester ultrasonic screening using fetal macrosomia in the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome: A systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of screening for macrosomia is not well established. One of the critical elements of an effective screening program is the diagnostic accuracy of a test at predicting the condition. The objective of this study is to investigate the diagnostic effectiveness of universal ultrasonic fetal biometry in predicting the delivery of a macrosomic infant, shoulder dystocia, and associated neonatal morbidity in low- and mixed-risk populations.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a predefined literature search in Medline, Excerpta Medica database (EMBASE), the Cochrane library and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to May 2020. No language restrictions were applied. We included studies where the ultrasound was performed as part of universal screening and those that included low- and mixed-risk pregnancies and excluded studies confined to high risk pregnancies. We used the estimated fetal weight (EFW) (multiple formulas and thresholds) and the abdominal circumference (AC) to define suspected large for gestational age (LGA). Adverse perinatal outcomes included macrosomia (multiple thresholds), shoulder dystocia, and other markers of neonatal morbidity. The risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Meta-analysis was carried out using the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the bivariate logit-normal (Reitsma) models. We identified 41 studies that met our inclusion criteria involving 112,034 patients in total. These included 11 prospective cohort studies (N = 9986), one randomized controlled trial (RCT) (N = 367), and 29 retrospective cohort studies (N = 101,681). The quality of the studies was variable, and only three studies blinded the ultrasound findings to the clinicians. Both EFW >4,000 g (or 90th centile for the gestational age) and AC >36 cm (or 90th centile) had >50% sensitivity for predicting macrosomia (birthweight above 4,000 g or 90th centile) at birth with positive likelihood ratios (LRs) of 8.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.84-11.17) and 7.56 (95% CI 5.85-9.77), respectively. There was significant heterogeneity at predicting macrosomia, which could reflect the different study designs, the characteristics of the included populations, and differences in the formulas used. An EFW >4,000 g (or 90th centile) had 22% sensitivity at predicting shoulder dystocia with a positive likelihood ratio of 2.12 (95% CI 1.34-3.35). There was insufficient data to analyze other markers of neonatal morbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that suspected LGA is strongly predictive of the risk of delivering a large infant in low- and mixed-risk populations. However, it is only weakly (albeit statistically significantly) predictive of the risk of shoulder dystocia. There was insufficient data to analyze other markers of neonatal morbidity.

Uncertainties in Screening and Prevention of Group B Streptococcus Disease

In autumn 2016, the UK Department of Health (now Department of Health and Social Care) convened 2 meetings to discuss how to address research evidence gaps in order to minimize the impact of infant group B streptococcus (GBS) disease in the United Kingdom. At that meeting, a number of research priorities were highlighted, including improving the screening for GBS colonization in pregnant women, offering intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis and point-of-care testing, and understanding the effect of widespread intrapartum antibiotic use on long-term infant health. Further discussions involved investigating the feasibility of a large prospective study of pregnant women and their infants in order to understand the role of antibodies in the protection against GBS disease in infancy following maternal exposure to GBS colonization. Here, we summarize the research uncertainties identified at that meeting.