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van de Wal RSW, Nicholls RJ, Behar D, McInnes K, Stammer D, Lowe JA, Church JA, DeConto R, Fettweis X, Goelzer H, Haasnoot M, Haigh ID, Hinkel J, Horton BP, James TS, Jenkins A, LeCozannet G, Levermann A, Lipscomb WH, Marzeion B, Pattyn F, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Price SF, Seroussi H, Sun S, Veatch W, White K. A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners. Earths Future 2022; 10:e2022EF002751. [PMID: 36590252 PMCID: PMC9787942 DOI: 10.1029/2022ef002751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2022] [Revised: 09/23/2022] [Accepted: 10/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.
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Affiliation(s)
- R. S. W. van de Wal
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research UtrechtUtrecht UniversityTA UtrechtThe Netherlands
- Department of Physical GeographyUtrecht UniversityTA UtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - R. J. Nicholls
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of East AngliaNorwichUK
| | - D. Behar
- San Francisco Public Utilities CommissionSan FranciscoCAUSA
| | - K. McInnes
- Climate Change Research CentreUNSW AustraliaSydneyNSWAustralia
| | - D. Stammer
- Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und NachhaltigkeitUniversität HamburgHamburgGermany
| | - J. A. Lowe
- Met Office Hadley CentreExeterUK
- Priestley CentreUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - J. A. Church
- Climate Change Research CentreUNSW AustraliaSydneyNSWAustralia
- Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS)University of TasmaniaHobartTASAustralia
| | - R. DeConto
- Department of GeosciencesUniversity of Massachusetts‐AmherstAmherstMAUSA
| | - X. Fettweis
- Department of GeographySPHERES Research UnitUniversity of LiègeLiègeBelgium
| | - H. Goelzer
- NORCE Norwegian Research CentreBjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway
| | | | - I. D. Haigh
- School of Ocean and Earth ScienceUniversity of SouthamptonNational Oceanography CentreSouthamptonUK
| | - J. Hinkel
- Adaptation and Social LearningGlobal Climate ForumBerlinGermany
| | - B. P. Horton
- Earth Observatory of SingaporeNanyang Technological UniversitySingaporeSingapore
- Asian School of the EnvironmentNanyang Technological UniversitySingaporeSingapore
| | - T. S. James
- Natural Resources CanadaGeological Survey of CanadaSidneyBCCanada
| | - A. Jenkins
- Department of Geography and Environmental SciencesNorthumbria UniversityNewcastle upon TyneUK
| | - G. LeCozannet
- Coastal Risks and Climate Change UnitRisks and Prevention DivisionBRGMOrléansFrance
| | - A. Levermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdamGermany
- LDEOColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
- Physics InstituteUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
| | - W. H. Lipscomb
- Climate and Global Dynamics LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderCOUSA
| | - B. Marzeion
- Institute of Geography and MARUM ‐ Center for Marine Environmental SciencesUniversity of BremenBremenGermany
| | - F. Pattyn
- Laboratoire de GlaciologieUniversité libre de BruxellesBrusselsBelgium
| | - A. J. Payne
- School of Geographical SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - W. T. Pfeffer
- INSTAAR and Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural EngineeringUniversity of ColoradoBoulderCOUSA
| | - S. F. Price
- Theoretical DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA
| | - H. Seroussi
- Thayer School of EngineeringDartmouth CollegeHanoverNHUSA
| | - S. Sun
- Coastal Risks and Climate Change UnitRisks and Prevention DivisionBRGMOrléansFrance
| | - W. Veatch
- US Army Corps of Engineers, HeadquartersWashingtonDCUSA
| | - K. White
- US Department of DefenseOffice of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (Environment and Energy Resilience)DCWashingtonUSA
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Dutton A, Carlson AE, Long AJ, Milne GA, Clark PU, DeConto R, Horton BP, Rahmstorf S, Raymo ME. SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods. Science 2015; 349:aaa4019. [PMID: 26160951 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa4019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 403] [Impact Index Per Article: 44.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Dutton
- Department of Geological Sciences, University of Florida,Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
| | - A E Carlson
- College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - A J Long
- Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK
| | - G A Milne
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
| | - P U Clark
- College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - R DeConto
- Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA
| | - B P Horton
- Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA. Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798
| | - S Rahmstorf
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - M E Raymo
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
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