Global health impacts of ambient fine particulate pollution associated with climate variability

Air pollution is a key global environmental problem raising human health concern. It is essential to comprehensively assess the long-term characteristics of air pollution and the resultant health impacts. We first assessed the global trends of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) during 1980-2020 using a monthly global PM2.5 reanalysis dataset, and evaluated their association with three types of climate variability including El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole and North Atlantic Oscillation. We then estimated PM2.5-attributable premature deaths using integrated exposure-response functions. Results show a significant increasing trend of ambient PM2.5 during 1980-2020 due to increases in anthropogenic emissions. Ambient PM2.5 caused a total of ∼ 135 million premature deaths globally during the four decades. Occurrence of air pollution episodes was strongly associated with climate variability, which were associated with up to 14 % increase in annual global PM2.5-attributable premature deaths.

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records.

Developing detailed records of relative sea-level change using a foraminiferal transfer function: an example from North Norfolk, UK

This paper provides a brief overview of the transfer function approach to sea-level reconstruction. Using the example of two overlapping sediment cores from the North Norfolk coast, UK, the advantages and limitations of the transfer function methodology are examined. While the selected cores are taken from different sites, and display contrasting patterns of sedimentation, the foraminiferal transfer function distils comparable records of relative sea-level change from both sequences. These reconstructions are consistent with existing sea-level index points from the region but produce a more detailed record of relative sea-level change. Transfer functions can extract sea-level information from a wider range of sedimentary sub-environments. This increases the amount of data that can be collected from coastal deposits and improves record resolution. The replicability of the transfer function methodology, coupled with the sequential nature of the data it produces, assists in the compilation and analysis of sea-level records from different sites. This technique has the potential to bridge the gap between short-term (instrumental) and long-term (geological or geophysical) records of sea-level change.

Implications of a microfossil-based transfer function in Holocene sea-level studies

Fifty-two sea-level index points are described from samples collected within the Land-Ocean Interaction Study area. The vertical relationship between relative sea-level and a reference water level for each index point was estimated using two contrasting methods: a lithological-based approach, which is routinely employed in sea-level studies, and a foraminiferal-based transfer function. Comparison of the two methods reveals that the range of the former is 0.14 ± 0.09 m smaller than the latter because the foraminiferal-based transfer function takes into account differences in tidal ranges between study sites. Furthermore, the reference water-level estimates of transgressive index points using the foraminiferal-based transfer function are on average 0.19 ± 0.12 m higher than those of the lithological-based approach. This may be due to the rapid response time of foraminiferal assemblages relative to lithological indicators or the uneven spatial sampling within the contemporary foraminiferal data set. Whilst these inter-method differences are small in magnitude, they are comparable in size to the scale of changes under investigation by recent high-resolution sea-level studies. In contrast, the reference water levels of both methods are comparable for regressive and basis index points. Index points from clastic sediments were also produced using the foraminiferal-based transfer function. Calcareous foraminifera from intertidal environments can be used to produce indicative meanings and supply material for accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating. This method expands the range of stratigraphic sequences that can be employed in sea-level reconstruction by redressing the over-reliance on transgressive and regressive contacts.

Sediment provenance and flux in the Tees Estuary: the record from the Late Devensian to the present

The influences of sea-level, climate, human activity and coastal morphology on post-glacial sediment flux and deposition in the Tees Estuary were considered in a multidisciplinary investigation of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene sedimentary record. The following tripartite division was identified using a combination of lithostratigraphic and geochemical data: a Late Glacial laminated clay providing evidence of a former proglacial lake and a proxy record of climate change; an early-mid-Holocene intercalated sequence of tidal silts and clays and peats; and a late Holocene succession characterized by increasing evidence of human activity and metal contamination. Sea-level change has been identified as the main control on sedimentationviadecelerating sea-level rise and changing tidal dynamics betweenc.8 and 3 kabp. Climate controlled the sequence of rhythmite thickness in the Late Glacial clays, whilst increased wetness afterc.3 kabpmay have encouraged terrestrial sediment influx. Enhanced sediment supply to the coastal zone can also be attributed to increasing human activity in the catchment from the Bronze Age onward, first as a consequence of clearance, and subsequently as a result of mining and industrial expansion. Fine-grained sediment flux has almost exclusively been from the Tees catchment to the coast, extending offshore during rebound-induced collapse and erosion of the Late Glacial lake basin. The only notable onshore sediment flux has been the deposition of marine sands in the outer estuary betweenc.6.5 and 3.5 kabp.