Population pharmacokinetics of primaquine and its metabolites in African males

BACKGROUND

Primaquine (PQ) is the prototype 8-aminoquinoline drug, a class which targets gametocytes and hypnozoites. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends adding a single low dose of primaquine to the standard artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) in order to block malaria transmission in regions with low malaria transmission. However, the haemolytic toxicity is a major adverse outcome of primaquine in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficient subjects. This study aimed to characterize the pharmacokinetic properties of primaquine and its major metabolites in G6PD-deficient subjects.

METHODS

A single low-dose of primaquine (0.4-0.5 mg/kg) was administered in twenty-eight African males. Venous and capillary plasma were sampled up to 24 h after the drug administration. Haemoglobin levels were observed up to 28 days after drug administration. Only PQ, carboxy-primaquine (CPQ), and primaquine carbamoyl-glucuronide (PQCG) were present in plasma samples and measured using liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Drug and metabolites' pharmacokinetic properties were investigated using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling.

RESULTS

Population pharmacokinetic properties of PQ, CPQ, and PQCG can be described by one-compartment disposition kinetics with a transit-absorption model. Body weight was implemented as an allometric function on the clearance and volume parameters for all compounds. None of the covariates significantly affected the pharmacokinetic parameters. No significant correlations were detected between the exposures of the measured compounds and the change in haemoglobin or methaemoglobin levels. There was no significant haemoglobin drop in the G6PD-deficient patients after administration of a single low dose of PQ.

CONCLUSIONS

A single low-dose of PQ was haematologically safe in this population of G6PD-normal and G6PD-deficient African males without malaria. Trial registration NCT02535767.

Measuring protective efficacy and quantifying the impact of drug resistance: A novel malaria chemoprevention trial design and methodology

BACKGROUND

Recently revised WHO guidelines on malaria chemoprevention have opened the door to more tailored implementation. Countries face choices on whether to replace old drugs, target additional age groups, and adapt delivery schedules according to local drug resistance levels and malaria transmission patterns. Regular routine assessment of protective efficacy of chemoprevention is key. Here, we apply a novel modelling approach to aid the design and analysis of chemoprevention trials and generate measures of protection that can be applied across a range of transmission settings.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed a model of genotype-specific drug protection, which accounts for underlying risk of infection and circulating genotypes. Using a Bayesian framework, we fitted the model to multiple simulated scenarios to explore variations in study design, setting, and participant characteristics. We find that a placebo or control group with no drug protection is valuable but not always feasible. An alternative approach is a single-arm trial with an extended follow-up (>42 days), which allows measurement of the underlying infection risk after drug protection wanes, as long as transmission is relatively constant. We show that the currently recommended 28-day follow-up in a single-arm trial results in low precision of estimated 30-day chemoprevention efficacy and low power in determining genotype differences of 12 days in the duration of protection (power = 1.4%). Extending follow-up to 42 days increased precision and power (71.5%) in settings with constant transmission over this time period. However, in settings of unstable transmission, protective efficacy in a single-arm trial was overestimated by 24.3% if recruitment occurred during increasing transmission and underestimated by 15.8% when recruitment occurred during declining transmission. Protective efficacy was estimated with greater precision in high transmission settings, and power to detect differences by resistance genotype was lower in scenarios where the resistant genotype was either rare or too common.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings have important implications for the current guidelines on chemoprevention efficacy studies and will be valuable for informing where these studies should be optimally placed. The results underscore the need for a comparator group in seasonal settings and provide evidence that the extension of follow-up in single-arm trials improves the accuracy of measures of protective efficacy in settings with more stable transmission. Extension of follow-up may pose logistical challenges to trial feasibility and associated costs. However, these studies may not need to be repeated multiple times, as the estimates of drug protection against different genotypes can be applied to different settings by adjusting for transmission intensity and frequency of resistance.

Forest-goers as a heterogeneous population at high-risk for malaria: a case-control study in Aceh Province, Indonesia

BACKGROUND

A major challenge to malaria elimination is identifying and targeting populations that are harbouring residual infections and contributing to persistent transmission. In many near-elimination settings in Southeast Asia, it is known that forest-goers are at higher risk for malaria infection, but detailed information on their behaviours and exposures is not available.

METHODS

In Aceh Province, Indonesia, a near-elimination setting where a growing proportion of malaria is due to Plasmodium knowlesi, a case-control study was conducted to identify risk factors for symptomatic malaria, characteristics of forest-goers, and key intervention points. From April 2017 to September 2018, cases and controls were recruited and enrolled in a 1:3 ratio. Cases had confirmed malaria infection by rapid diagnostic test or microscopy detected at a health facility (HF). Gender-matched controls were recruited from passive case detection among individuals with suspected malaria who tested negative at a health facility (HF controls), and community-matched controls were recruited among those testing negative during active case detection. Multivariable logistic regression (unconditional for HF controls and conditional for community controls) was used to identify risk factors for symptomatic malaria infection.

RESULTS

There were 45 cases, of which 27 were P. knowlesi, 17 were Plasmodium vivax, and one was not determined. For controls, 509 and 599 participants were recruited from health facilities and the community, respectively. Forest exposures were associated with high odds of malaria; in particular, working and sleeping in the forest (HF controls: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 21.66, 95% CI 5.09-92.26; community controls: aOR 16.78, 95% CI 2.19-128.7) and having a second residence in the forest (aOR 6.29, 95% CI 2.29-17.31 and 13.53, 95% CI 2.10-87.12). Male forest-goers were a diverse population employed in a variety of occupations including logging, farming, and mining, sleeping in settings, such as huts, tents, and barracks, and working in a wide range of group sizes. Reported use of protective measures, such as nets, hammock nets, mosquito coils, and repellents was low among forest-goers and interventions at forest residences were absent.

CONCLUSIONS

Second residences in the forest and gaps in use of protective measures point to key malaria interventions to improve coverage in forest-going populations at risk for P. knowlesi and P. vivax in Aceh, Indonesia. Intensified strategies tailored to specific sub-populations will be essential to achieve elimination.

Targeted malaria elimination interventions reduce Plasmodium falciparum infections up to 3 kilometers away

Malaria elimination interventions in low-transmission settings aim to extinguish hot spots and prevent transmission to nearby areas. In malaria elimination settings, the World Health Organization recommends reactive, focal interventions targeted to the area near malaria cases shortly after they are detected. A key question is whether these interventions reduce transmission to nearby uninfected or asymptomatic individuals who did not receive interventions. Here, we measured direct effects (among intervention recipients) and spillover effects (among non-recipients) of reactive, focal interventions delivered within 500m of confirmed malaria index cases in a cluster-randomized trial in Namibia. The trial delivered malaria chemoprevention (artemether lumefantrine) and vector control (indoor residual spraying with Actellic) separately and in combination using a factorial design. We compared incidence, infection prevalence, and seroprevalence between study arms among intervention recipients (direct effects) and non-recipients (spillover effects) up to 3 km away from index cases. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios accounting for spillover effects. The combined chemoprevention and vector control intervention produced direct effects and spillover effects. In the primary analysis among non-recipients within 1 km from index cases, the combined intervention reduced malaria incidence by 43% (95% CI 20%, 59%). In secondary analyses among non-recipients 500m-3 km from interventions, the combined intervention reduced infection by 79% (6%, 95%) and seroprevalence 34% (20%, 45%). Accounting for spillover effects increased the cost-effectiveness of the combined intervention by 37%. Our findings provide the first evidence that targeting hot spots with combined chemoprevention and vector control interventions can indirectly benefit non-recipients up to 3 km away.

The provision of malaria services in border districts of four countries in Southern Africa: results from a cross-sectional community assessment of malaria border health posts

BACKGROUND

The importation of parasites across borders remains a threat to malaria elimination. The Southern African Development Community Malaria Elimination Eight (E8) established 39 border health facilities on 5 key international borders between high and low-burden countries. These clinics aimed to improve access to prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of malaria for residents in border areas and for mobile and migrant populations who frequently cross borders. Studies were conducted in each of the four high-burden E8 countries (Angola, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to evaluate malaria services in border areas.

METHODS

Cross-sectional surveys were conducted within 30 km of recently established E8 Border Health Posts. Structured questionnaires were administered to randomly selected respondents to assess malaria-related knowledge and behavior, access to malaria prevention, diagnosis and treatment of malaria, and risk factors for malaria associated with local and cross-border travel.

RESULTS

Results showed that most providers followed appropriate guidelines performing blood tests when individuals presented with fever, and that nearly all those who reported a positive blood test received medication. Lack of access to health care due to distance, cost or mistrust of the provider was rare. A minority of respondents reported not receiving timely diagnosis either because they did not seek help, or because they were not offered a blood test when presenting with fever. There was a high level of correct knowledge of causes, symptoms, and prevention of malaria. A majority, of border residents had access to primary prevention against malaria through either long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) or indoor residual spraying (IRS). Cross border travel was common with travellers reporting sleeping outside without protection against malaria.

CONCLUSIONS

The study demonstrated the importance of border health facilities in providing access to malaria services. Prevention needs to be improved for people who travel and sleep outdoors. Community health workers can play a key role in providing access to information, testing and treating malaria.

Testing and treatment for malaria elimination: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Global interest in malaria elimination has prompted research on active test and treat (TaT) strategies.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to assess the effectiveness of TaT strategies to reduce malaria transmission.

RESULTS

A total of 72 empirical research and 24 modelling studies were identified, mainly focused on proactive mass TaT (MTaT) and reactive case detection (RACD) in higher and lower transmission settings, respectively. Ten intervention studies compared MTaT to no MTaT and the evidence for impact on malaria incidence was weak. No intervention studies compared RACD to no RACD. Compared to passive case detection (PCD) alone, PCD + RACD using standard diagnostics increased infection detection 52.7% and 11.3% in low and very low transmission settings, respectively. Using molecular methods increased this detection of infections by 1.4- and 1.1-fold, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest MTaT is not effective for reducing transmission. By increasing case detection, surveillance data provided by RACD may indirectly reduce transmission by informing coordinated responses of intervention targeting.

Association between indoor residual spraying and pregnancy outcomes: a quasi-experimental study from Uganda

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a risk factor for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Indoor residual spraying with insecticide (IRS) reduces malaria infections, yet the effects of IRS on pregnancy outcomes are not well established. We evaluated the impact of a large-scale IRS campaign on pregnancy outcomes in Eastern Uganda.

METHODS

Birth records (n = 59 992) were obtained from routine surveillance data at 25 health facilities from five districts that were part of the IRS campaign and six neighbouring control districts ∼27 months before and ∼24 months after the start of the campaign (January 2013-May 2017). Campaign effects on low birthweight (LBW) and stillbirth incidence were estimated using the matrix completion method (MC-NNM), a machine-learning approach to estimating potential outcomes, and compared with the difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator. Subgroup analyses were conducted by HIV and gravidity.

RESULTS

MC-NNM estimates indicated that the campaign was associated with a 33% reduction in LBW incidence: incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-0.93)]. DiD estimates were similar to MC-NNM [IRR = 0.69 (0.47-1.01)], despite a parallel trends violation during the pre-IRS period. The campaign was not associated with substantial reductions in stillbirth incidence [IRRMC-NNM = 0.94 (0.50-1.77)]. HIV status modified the effects of the IRS campaign on LBW [βIRSxHIV = 0.42 (0.05-0.78)], whereby HIV-negative women appeared to benefit from the campaign [IRR = 0.70 (0.61-0.81)], but not HIV-positive women [IRR = 1.12 (0.59-2.12)].

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the effectiveness of the campaign in Eastern Uganda based on its benefit to LBW prevention, though HIV-positive women may require additional interventions. The IRS campaign was not associated with a substantively lower stillbirth incidence, warranting further research.

Safety of single-dose primaquine as a Plasmodium falciparum gametocytocide: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

BACKGROUND

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended single low-dose (SLD, 0.25 mg/kg) primaquine to be added as a Plasmodium (P.) falciparum gametocytocide to artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) without glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing, to accelerate malaria elimination efforts and avoid the spread of artemisinin resistance. Uptake of this recommendation has been relatively slow primarily due to safety concerns.

METHODS

A systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of single-dose (SD) primaquine studies for P. falciparum malaria were performed. Absolute and fractional changes in haemoglobin concentration within a week and adverse effects within 28 days of treatment initiation were characterised and compared between primaquine and no primaquine arms using random intercept models.

RESULTS

Data comprised 20 studies that enrolled 6406 participants, of whom 5129 (80.1%) had received a single target dose of primaquine ranging between 0.0625 and 0.75 mg/kg. There was no effect of primaquine in G6PD-normal participants on haemoglobin concentrations. However, among 194 G6PD-deficient African participants, a 0.25 mg/kg primaquine target dose resulted in an additional 0.53 g/dL (95% CI 0.17-0.89) reduction in haemoglobin concentration by day 7, with a 0.27 (95% CI 0.19-0.34) g/dL haemoglobin drop estimated for every 0.1 mg/kg increase in primaquine dose. Baseline haemoglobin, young age, and hyperparasitaemia were the main determinants of becoming anaemic (Hb < 10 g/dL), with the nadir observed on ACT day 2 or 3, regardless of G6PD status and exposure to primaquine. Time to recovery from anaemia took longer in young children and those with baseline anaemia or hyperparasitaemia. Serious adverse haematological events after primaquine were few (9/3, 113, 0.3%) and transitory. One blood transfusion was reported in the primaquine arms, and there were no primaquine-related deaths. In controlled studies, the proportions with either haematological or any serious adverse event were similar between primaquine and no primaquine arms.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the WHO recommendation to use 0.25 mg/kg of primaquine as a P. falciparum gametocytocide, including in G6PD-deficient individuals. Although primaquine is associated with a transient reduction in haemoglobin levels in G6PD-deficient individuals, haemoglobin levels at clinical presentation are the major determinants of anaemia in these patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO, CRD42019128185.

Cost and cost effectiveness of reactive case detection (RACD), reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) and reactive focal vector control (RAVC) to reduce malaria in the low endemic setting of Namibia: an analysis alongside a 2×2 factorial design cluster randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost and cost effectiveness of reactive case detection (RACD), reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) and reactive focal vector control (RAVC) to reduce malaria in a low endemic setting.

SETTING

The study was part of a 2×2 factorial design cluster randomised controlled trial within the catchment area of 11 primary health facilities in Zambezi, Namibia.

PARTICIPANTS

Cost and outcome data were collected from the trial, which included 8948 community members that received interventions due to their residence within 500 m of malaria index cases.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) per in incident case averted. ICER per prevalent case and per disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted were secondary outcomes, as were per unit interventions costs and personnel time. Outcomes were compared as: (1) rfMDA versus RACD, (2) RAVC versus no RAVC and (3) rfMDA+RAVC versus RACD only.

RESULTS

rfMDA cost 1.1× more than RACD, and RAVC cost 1.7× more than no RAVC. Relative to RACD only, the cost of rfMDA+RAVC was double ($3082 vs $1553 per event). The ICERs for rfMDA versus RACD, RAVC versus no RAVC and rfMDA+RAVC versus RACD only were $114, $1472 and $842, per incident case averted, respectively. Using prevalent infections and DALYs as outcomes, trends were similar. The median personnel time to implement rfMDA was 20% lower than for RACD (30 vs 38 min per person). The median personnel time for RAVC was 34 min per structure sprayed.

CONCLUSION

Implemented alone or in combination, rfMDA and RAVC were cost effective in reducing malaria incidence and prevalence despite higher implementation costs in the intervention compared with control arms. Compared with RACD, rfMDA was time saving. Cost and time requirements for the combined intervention could be decreased by implementing rfMDA and RAVC simultaneously by a single team.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02610400; Post-results.

Could China's journey of malaria elimination extend to Africa?

World Health Organization (WHO) certified China malaria-free on June 30, 2021, which brightens the goal of global malaria elimination efforts. China contributed its unique innovations to the global community: Artemisinin, discovered by Tu Youyou, has saved millions of lives globally; the "1-3-7" norm developed in 2012, has been adapted in the local contexts of countries in the Southeast Asia and Africa. How to the targets of Global Technical Strategy for Malaria (GTS) 2016-2030. By looking into the malaria control phase, towards elimination phase from 1960 to 2011 in sub-Saharan Africa and China, we found that the gap in malaria burden will widen unless the interventions in Africa are enhanced. It is imperative to identify the key China-Africa cooperation areas on malaria control and elimination, so that synergized efforts could be pooled together to help African countries achieve the elimination goal. The practices from China malaria control and elimination efforts could be leveraged to fast-track malaria elimination efforts in Africa, which makes it possible that the China's journey of malaria elimination extends to Africa.

Serological evaluation of the effectiveness of reactive focal mass drug administration and reactive vector control to reduce malaria transmission in Zambezi Region, Namibia: Results from a secondary analysis of a cluster randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Due to challenges in measuring changes in malaria at low transmission, serology is increasingly being used to complement clinical and parasitological surveillance. Longitudinal studies have shown that serological markers, such as Etramp5.Ag1, can reflect spatio-temporal differences in malaria transmission. However, these markers have yet to be used as endpoints in intervention trials.

METHODS

Based on data from a 2017 cluster randomised trial conducted in Zambezi Region, Namibia, evaluating the effectiveness of reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) and reactive vector control (RAVC), this study conducted a secondary analysis comparing antibody responses between intervention arms as trial endpoints. Antibody responses were measured on a multiplex immunoassay, using a panel of eight serological markers of Plasmodium falciparum infection - Etramp5.Ag1, GEXP18, HSP40.Ag1, Rh2.2030, EBA175, PfMSP1₁₉, PfAMA1, and PfGLURP.R2.

FINDINGS

Reductions in sero-prevalence to antigens Etramp.Ag1, PfMSP1₁₉, Rh2.2030, and PfAMA1 were observed in study arms combining rfMDA and RAVC, but only effects for Etramp5.Ag1 were statistically significant. Etramp5.Ag1 sero-prevalence was significantly lower in all intervention arms. Compared to the reference arms, adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) for Etramp5.Ag1 was 0.78 (95%CI 0.65 - 0.91, p = 0.0007) in the rfMDA arms and 0.79 (95%CI 0.67 - 0.92, p = 0.001) in the RAVC arms. For the combined rfMDA plus RAVC intervention, aPR was 0.59 (95%CI 0.46 - 0.76, p < 0.0001). Significant reductions were also observed based on continuous antibody responses. Sero-prevalence as an endpoint was found to achieve higher study power (99.9% power to detect a 50% reduction in prevalence) compared to quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) prevalence (72.9% power to detect a 50% reduction in prevalence).

INTERPRETATION

While the observed relative reduction in qPCR prevalence in the study was greater than serology, the use of serological endpoints to evaluate trial outcomes measured effect size with improved precision and study power. Serology has clear application in cluster randomised trials, particularly in settings where measuring clinical incidence or infection is less reliable due to seasonal fluctuations, limitations in health care seeking, or incomplete testing and reporting.

FUNDING

This study was supported by Novartis Foundation (A122666), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1160129), and the Horchow Family Fund (5,300,375,400).

Effective management of district-level malaria control and elimination: implementing quality and participative process improvements

Although it is widely recognized that strong program management is essential to achieving better health outcomes, this priority is not recognized in malaria programmatic practices. Increased management precision offers the opportunity to improve the effectiveness of malaria interventions, overcoming operational barriers to intervention coverage and accelerating the path to elimination. Here we propose a combined approach involving quality improvement, quality management, and participative process improvement, which we refer to as Combined Quality and Process Improvement (CQPI), to improve upon malaria program management. We draw on evidence from other areas of public health, as well as pilot implementation studies in Eswatini, Namibia and Zimbabwe to support the proposal. Summaries of the methodological approaches employed in the pilot studies, overview of activities and an outline of lessons learned from the implementation of CQPI are provided. Our findings suggest that a malaria management strategy that prioritizes quality and participative process improvements at the district-level can strengthen teamwork and communication while enabling the empowerment of subnational staff to solve service delivery challenges. Despite the promise of CQPI, however, policy makers and donors are not aware of its potential. Investments are therefore needed to allow CQPI to come to fruition.

Mechanistic Modelling of Primaquine Pharmacokinetics, Gametocytocidal Activity, and Mosquito Infectivity

Clinical studies have shown that adding a single 0.25mg base/kg dose of primaquine to standard antimalarial regimens rapidly sterilises Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes. However, the mechanism of action and overall impact on malaria transmission is still unknown. Using data from 81 adult Malians with P. falciparum gametocytaemia who received the standard dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine treatment course and were randomised to receive either a single dose of primaquine between 0.0625 and 0.5 mg base/kg or placebo. We characterised the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationships for transmission blocking activity. Both gametocyte clearance and mosquito infectivity were assessed. A mechanistically-linked pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model adequately described primaquine and carboxy-primaquine pharmacokinetics, gametocyte dynamics, and mosquito infectivity at different clinical doses of primaquine. Primaquine showed a dose-dependent gametocytocidal effect that precedes clearance. A single low dose of primaquine (0.25 mg/kg) rapidly prevented P. falciparum transmissibility.

Civilian-military malaria outbreak response in Thailand: an example of multi-stakeholder engagement for malaria elimination

BACKGROUND

In April 2017, the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) was alerted to a potential malaria outbreak among civilians and military personnel in Sisaket Province, a highly forested area bordering Cambodia. The objective of this study was to present findings from the joint civilian-military outbreak response.

METHODS

A mixed-methods approach was used to assess risk factors among cases reported during the 2017 Sisaket malaria outbreak. Routine malaria surveillance data from January 2013 to March 2018 obtained from public and military medical reporting systems and key informant interviews (KIIs) (n = 72) were used to develop hypotheses about potential factors contributing to the outbreak. Joint civilian-military response activities included entomological surveys, mass screen and treat (MSAT) and vector control campaigns, and scale-up of the "1-3-7" reactive case detection approach among civilians alongside a pilot "1-3-7" study conducted by the Royal Thai Army (RTA).

RESULTS

Between May-July 2017, the monthly number of MoPH-reported cases surpassed the epidemic threshold. Outbreak cases detected through the MoPH mainly consisted of Thai males (87%), working as rubber tappers (62%) or military/border police (15%), and Plasmodium vivax infections (73%). Compared to cases from the previous year (May-July 2016), outbreak cases were more likely to be rubber tappers (OR = 14.89 [95% CI: 5.79-38.29]; p < 0.001) and infected with P. vivax (OR=2.32 [1.27-4.22]; p = 0.006). Themes from KIIs were congruent with findings from routine surveillance data. Though limited risk factor information was available from military cases, findings from RTA's "1-3-7" study indicated transmission was likely occurring outside military bases. Data from entomological surveys and MSAT campaigns support this hypothesis, as vectors were mostly exophagic and parasite prevalence from MSAT campaigns was very low (range: 0-0.7% by PCR/microscopy).

CONCLUSIONS

In 2017, an outbreak of mainly P. vivax occurred in Sisaket Province, affecting mainly military and rubber tappers. Vector control use was limited to the home/military barracks, indicating that additional interventions were needed during high-risk forest travel periods. Importantly, this outbreak catalyzed joint civilian-military collaborations and integration of the RTA into the national malaria elimination strategy (NMES). The Sisaket outbreak response serves as an example of how civilian and military public health systems can collaborate to advance national malaria elimination goals in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Utilising clinical data to personlaise boundary conditions significantly improves the accuracy of angiography based virtual FFR

Background

Angiography-derived computed (virtual) fractional flow reserve (vFFR) permits the assessment of coronary physiology without the need for a pressure wire or hyperaemia. However, accuracy is limited by assumptions made about coronary microvascular resistance (CMVR) [1]. We hypothesised that machine learning may allow us to “tune” our estimate of the CMVR to increase the accuracy of vFFR.

Purpose

To determine whether routine clinical data can personalise CMVR and improve the accuracy of vFFR on an individual case basis.

Methods

Patients with chronic coronary syndromes underwent coronary angiography with FFR assessment. Vessel-specific CMVR was computed using a 3D- computational fluid dynamics simulation with invasively measured proximal and distal pressures. Predictive models were created using non-linear autoregressing moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) modelling with computed CMVR as the dependent variable. vFFR was computed using previously described methods [2]. Three simulations were run, using: 1) a generic CMVR value (Model A); 2) a NARMAX-predicted CMVR based upon a panel of simple clinical data (Model B); and 3) a NARMAX-predicted CMVR incorporating echocardiographic data (Model C). The diagnostic and quantitative accuracy of each model was compared with directly measured FFR.

Results

Eighty four patients underwent coronary angiography with FFR assessment in 157 vessels. Mean age was 64 (±0.1) years and 64 (76%) were male. Mean FFR was 0.79 (±0.15). Mean CMVR was 1.01e+10 Pa/m3 s–1. vFFR error with Model A was ±0.10, with Model B was ±0.07 (p&lt;0.001) and with Model C was ±0.05 (p&lt;0.001) (Table 1).

Conclusion

vFFR is dependent upon not only the epicardial stenosis, but also the CMVR, estimation of which can be personalised based upon clinical and echocardiographic data. This can be used to increase the accuracy of vFFR.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation Clinial Research Training FellowshipNIHR i4i grant Table 1

COVID-19 Therapeutics for Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Review of Candidate Agents with Potential for Near-Term Use and Impact

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face significant challenges in the control of COVID-19, given limited resources, especially for inpatient care. In a parallel effort to that for vaccines, the identification of therapeutics that have near-term potential to be available and easily administered is critical. Using the United States (US), European Union (EU), and World Health Organization (WHO) clinical trial registries, we reviewed COVID-19 therapeutic agents currently under investigation. The search was limited to oral or potentially oral agents, with at least a putative anti-SARS-CoV-2 virus mechanism and with at least five registered trials. The search yielded 1,001, 203, and 1,128 trials, in the US, EU, and WHO trial registers, respectively. These trials covered 13 oral or potentially oral repurposed agents that are currently used as antimicrobials and immunomodulatory therapeutics with established safety profiles. The available evidence regarding proposed mechanisms of action, potential limitations, and trial status is summarized. The results of the search demonstrate few published studies of high quality, a low proportion of trials completed, and the vast majority with negative results. These findings reflect limited investment in COVID-19 therapeutics development compared with vaccines. We also identified the need for better coordination of trials of accessible agents and their combinations in LMICs. To prevent COVID-19 from becoming a neglected tropical disease, there is a critical need for rapid and coordinated efforts in the evaluation and deployment of those agents found to be efficacious.

Malaria risk factors in northern Namibia: The importance of occupation, age and mobility in characterizing high-risk populations

In areas of low and unstable transmission, malaria cases occur in populations with lower access to malaria services and interventions, and in groups with specific malaria risk exposures often away from the household. In support of the Namibian National Vector Borne Disease Program's drive to better target interventions based upon risk, we implemented a health facility-based case control study aimed to identify risk factors for symptomatic malaria in Zambezi Region, northern Namibia. A total of 770 febrile individuals reporting to 6 health facilities and testing positive by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) between February 2015 and April 2016 were recruited as cases; 641 febrile individuals testing negative by RDT at the same health facilities through June 2016 were recruited as controls. Data on socio-demographics, housing construction, overnight travel, use of malaria prevention and outdoor behaviors at night were collected through interview and recorded on a tablet-based questionnaire. Remotely-sensed environmental data were extracted for geo-located village residence locations. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify risk factors and latent class analyses (LCA) used to identify and characterize high-risk subgroups. The majority of participants (87% of cases and 69% of controls) were recruited during the 2016 transmission season, an outbreak year in Southern Africa. After adjustment, cases were more likely to be cattle herders (Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 4.46 95%CI 1.05-18.96), members of the police or other security personnel (aOR: 4.60 95%CI: 1.16-18.16), and pensioners/unemployed persons (aOR: 2.25 95%CI 1.24-4.08), compared to agricultural workers (most common category). Children (aOR 2.28 95%CI 1.13-4.59) and self-identified students were at higher risk of malaria (aOR: 4.32 95%CI 2.31-8.10). Other actionable risk factors for malaria included housing and behavioral characteristics, including traditional home construction and sleeping in an open structure (versus modern structure: aOR: 2.01 95%CI 1.45-2.79 and aOR: 4.76 95%CI: 2.14-10.57); cross border travel in the prior 30 days (aOR: 10.55 95%CI 2.94-37.84); and outdoor agricultural work at night (aOR: 2.09 95%CI 1.12-3.87). Malaria preventive activities were all protective and included personal use of an insecticide treated net (ITN) (aOR: 0.61 95%CI 0.42-0.87), adequate household ITN coverage (aOR: 0.63 95%CI 0.42-0.94), and household indoor residual spraying (IRS) in the past year (versus never sprayed: (aOR: 0.63 95%CI 0.44-0.90). A number of environmental factors were associated with increased risk of malaria, including lower temperatures, higher rainfall and increased vegetation for the 30 days prior to diagnosis and residing more than 5 minutes from a health facility. LCA identified six classes of cases, with class membership strongly correlated with occupation, age and select behavioral risk factors. Use of ITNs and IRS coverage was similarly low across classes. For malaria elimination these high-risk groups will need targeted and tailored intervention strategies, for example, by implementing alternative delivery methods of interventions through schools and worksites, as well as the use of specific interventions that address outdoor transmission.

Effectiveness and safety of reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) using dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine to reduce malaria transmission in the very low-endemic setting of Eswatini: a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

To reduce malaria transmission in very low-endemic settings, screening and treatment near index cases (reactive case detection (RACD)), is widely practised, but the rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) used miss low-density infections. Reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) may be safe and more effective.

METHODS

We conducted a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial in Eswatini, a very low-endemic setting. 77 clusters were randomised to rfMDA using dihydroartemisin-piperaquine (DP) or RACD involving RDTs and artemether-lumefantrine. Interventions were delivered by the local programme. An intention-to-treat analysis was used to compare cluster-level cumulative confirmed malaria incidence among clusters with cases. Secondary outcomes included safety and adherence.

RESULTS

From September 2015 to August 2017, 222 index cases from 47 clusters triggered 46 RACD events and 64 rfMDA events. RACD and rfMDA were delivered to 1455 and 1776 individuals, respectively. Index case coverage was 69.5% and 62.4% for RACD and rfMDA, respectively. Adherence to DP was 98.7%. No serious adverse events occurred. For rfMDA versus RACD, cumulative incidences (per 1000 person-years) of all malaria were 2.11 (95% CI 1.73 to 2.59) and 1.97 (95% CI 1.57 to 2.47), respectively; and of locally acquired malaria, they were 1.29 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.67) and 0.97 (95% CI 0.71 to 1.34), respectively. Adjusting for imbalance in baseline incidence, incidence rate ratio for rfMDA versus RACD was 0.95 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.65) for all malaria and 0.82 (95% CI 0.40 to 1.71) for locally acquired malaria. Similar results were obtained in a per-protocol analysis that excluded clusters with <80% index case coverage.

CONCLUSION

In a very low-endemic, real-world setting, rfMDA using DP was safe, but did not lower incidence compared with RACD, potentially due to insufficient coverage and/or power. To assess impact of interventions in very low-endemic settings, improved coverage, complementary interventions and adaptive ring trial designs may be needed.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02315690.

G6PD Polymorphisms and Hemolysis After Antimalarial Treatment With Low Single-Dose Primaquine: A Pooled Analysis of Six African Clinical Trials

Primaquine (PQ) is an antimalarial drug with the potential to reduce malaria transmission due to its capacity to clear mature Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in the human host. However, the large-scale roll-out of PQ has to be counterbalanced by the additional risk of drug-induced hemolysis in individuals suffering from Glucose-6-phospate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, a genetic condition determined by polymorphisms on the X-linked G6PD gene. Most studies on G6PD deficiency and PQ-associated hemolysis focused on the G6PD A- variant, a combination of the two single nucleotide changes G202A (rs1050828) and A376G (rs1050829), although other polymorphisms may play a role. In this study, we tested the association of 20 G6PD single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with hemolysis measured seven days after low single dose of PQ given at the dose of 0.1 mg/kg to 0.75 mg/kg in 957 individuals from 6 previously published clinical trials investigating the safety and efficacy of this drug spanning five African countries. After adjusting for inter-study effects, age, gender, baseline hemoglobin level, PQ dose, and parasitemia at screening, our analysis showed putative association signals from the common G6PD mutation, A376G [-log10(p-value) = 2.44] and two less-known SNPs, rs2230037 [-log10(p-value] = 2.60), and rs28470352 [-log10(p-value) = 2.15]; A376G and rs2230037 were in very strong linkage disequilibrium with each other (R 2 = 0.978). However, when the effects of these SNPs were included in the same regression model, the subsequent associations were in the borderline of statistical significance. In conclusion, whilst a role for the A- variant is well established, we did not observe an important additional role for other G6PD polymorphisms in determining post-treatment hemolysis in individuals treated with low single-dose PQ.

Community acceptance of reactive focal mass drug administration and reactive focal vector control using indoor residual spraying, a mixed-methods study in Zambezi region, Namibia

BACKGROUND

In Namibia, as in many malaria elimination settings, reactive case detection (RACD), or malaria testing and treatment around index cases, is a standard intervention. Reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA), or treatment without testing, and reactive focal vector control (RAVC) in the form of indoor residual spraying, are alternative or adjunctive interventions, but there are limited data regarding their community acceptability.

METHODS

A parent trial aimed to compare the effectiveness of rfMDA versus RACD, RAVC versus no RAVC, and rfMDA + RAVC versus RACD only. To assess acceptability of these interventions, a mixed-methods study was conducted using key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs) in three rounds (pre-trial and in years 1 and 2 of the trial), and an endline survey.

RESULTS

In total, 17 KIIs, 49 FGDs were conducted with 449 people over three annual rounds of qualitative data collection. Pre-trial, community members more accurately predicted the level of community acceptability than key stakeholders. Throughout the trial, key participant motivators included: malaria risk perception, access to free community-based healthcare and IRS, and community education by respectful study teams. RACD or rfMDA were offered to 1372 and 8948 individuals in years 1 and 2, respectively, and refusal rates were low (< 2%). RAVC was offered to few households (n = 72) in year 1. In year 2, RAVC was offered to more households (n = 944) and refusals were < 1%. In the endline survey, 94.3% of 2147 respondents said they would participate in the same intervention again.

CONCLUSIONS

Communities found both reactive focal interventions and their combination highly acceptable. Engaging communities and centering and incorporating their perspectives and experiences during design, implementation, and evaluation of this community-based intervention was critical for optimizing study engagement.

Persistence of mRNA indicative of Plasmodium falciparum ring-stage parasites 42 days after artemisinin and non-artemisinin combination therapy in naturally infected Malians

Background

Malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa relies upon prompt case management with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). Ring-stage parasite mRNA, measured by sbp1 quantitative reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR), was previously reported to persist after ACT treatment and hypothesized to reflect temporary arrest of the growth of ring-stage parasites (dormancy) following exposure to artemisinins. Here, the persistence of ring-stage parasitaemia following ACT and non-ACT treatment was examined.

Methods

Samples were used from naturally infected Malian gametocyte carriers who received dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine (DP) or sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine (SP–AQ) with or without gametocytocidal drugs. Gametocytes and ring-stage parasites were quantified by qRT-PCR during 42 days of follow-up.

Results

At baseline, 89% (64/73) of participants had measurable ring-stage parasite mRNA. Following treatment, the proportion of ring-stage parasite-positive individuals and estimated densities declined for all four treatment groups. Ring-stage parasite prevalence and density was generally lower in arms that received DP compared to SP–AQ. This finding was most apparent days 1, 2, and 42 of follow-up (p < 0.01). Gametocytocidal drugs did not influence ring-stage parasite persistence. Ring-stage parasite density estimates on days 14 and 28 after initiation of treatment were higher among individuals who subsequently experienced recurrent parasitaemia compared to those who remained free of parasites until day 42 after initiation of treatment (p_{day 14} = 0.011 and p_{day 28} = 0.068). No association of ring-stage persistence with gametocyte carriage was observed.

Conclusions

The current findings of lower ring-stage persistence after ACT without an effect of gametocytocidal partner drugs affirms the use of sbp1 as ring-stage marker. Lower persistence of ring-stage mRNA after ACT treatment suggests the marker may not reflect dormant parasites whilst it was predictive of re-appearance of parasitaemia.

Active Case Finding for Malaria: A 3-Year National Evaluation of Optimal Approaches to Detect Infections and Hotspots Through Reactive Case Detection in the Low-transmission Setting of Eswatini

Background

Reactive case detection (RACD) is a widely practiced malaria elimination intervention whereby close contacts of index cases receive malaria testing to inform treatment and other interventions. However, the optimal diagnostic and operational approaches for this resource-intensive strategy are not clear.

Methods

We conducted a 3-year prospective national evaluation of RACD in Eswatini, a malaria elimination setting. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) was compared to traditional rapid diagnostic testing (RDT) for the improved detection of infections and for hotspots (RACD events yielding ≥1 additional infection). The potential for index case–, RACD-, and individual-level factors to improve efficiencies was also evaluated.

Results

Among 377 RACD events, 10 890 participants residing within 500 m of index cases were tested. Compared to RDT, LAMP provided a 3-fold and 2.3-fold higher yield to detect infections (1.7% vs 0.6%) and hotspots (29.7% vs 12.7%), respectively. Hotspot detection improved with ≥80% target population coverage and response times within 7 days. Proximity to the index case was associated with a dose-dependent increased infection risk (up to 4-fold). Individual-, index case–, and other RACD-level factors were considered but the simple approach of restricting RACD to a 200-m radius maximized yield and efficiency.

Conclusions

We present the first large-scale national evaluation of optimal RACD approaches from a malaria elimination setting. To inform delivery of antimalarial drugs or other interventions, RACD, when conducted, should utilize more sensitive diagnostics and clear context-specific operational parameters. Future studies of RACD’s impact on transmission may still be needed.

History of malaria control in Rwanda: implications for future elimination in Rwanda and other malaria-endemic countries

BACKGROUND

Malaria was first reported in Rwanda in the early 1900s with significant heterogeneity and volatility in transmission over subsequent decades. Here, a comprehensive literature review of malaria transmission patterns and control strategies in Rwanda between 1900 and 2018 is presented to provide insight into successes and challenges in the country and to inform the future of malaria control in Rwanda.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of peer-reviewed publications (Web of Knowledge, PubMed, Google Scholar, and the World Health Organization Library (WHOLIS) and grey literature on malaria control in Rwanda between 1900 and 2019 was conducted with the following search terms: "malaria"", "Rwanda", "epidemiology", "control", "treatment", and/or "prevention." Reports and other relevant documents were also obtained from the Rwanda National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP). To inform this literature review and evidence synthesis, epidemiologic and intervention data were collated from NMCP and partner reports, the national routine surveillance system, and population surveys.

RESULTS

Two hundred sixty-eight peer-reviewed publications and 56 grey literature items were reviewed, and information was extracted. The history of malaria control in Rwanda is thematically described here according to five phases: 1900 to 1954 before the launch of the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP); (2) Implementation of the GMEP from 1955 to 1969; (3) Post- GMEP to 1994 Genocide; (4) the re-establishment of malaria control from 1995 to 2005, and (5) current malaria control efforts from 2006 to 2018. The review shows that Rwanda was an early adopter of tools and approaches in the early 2000s, putting the country ahead of the curve and health systems reforms created an enabling environment for an effective malaria control programme. The last two decades have seen unprecedented investments in malaria in Rwanda, resulting in significant declines in disease burden from 2000 to 2011. However, in recent years, these gains appear to have reversed with increasing cases since 2012 although the country is starting to make progress again.

CONCLUSION

The review shows the impact and fragility of gains against malaria, even in the context of sustained health system development. Also, as shown in Rwanda, country malaria control programmes should be dynamic and adaptive to respond and address changing settings.

Transmission-blocking Effects of Primaquine and Methylene Blue Suggest Plasmodium falciparum Gametocyte Sterilization Rather Than Effects on Sex Ratio

Gametocyte density and sex ratio can predict the proportion of mosquitoes that will become infected after feeding on blood of patients receiving nongametocytocidal drugs. Because primaquine and methylene blue sterilize gametocytes before affecting their density and sex ratio, mosquito feeding experiments are required to demonstrate their early transmission-blocking effects.

Efficacy of Single-Dose Primaquine With Artemisinin Combination Therapy on Plasmodium falciparum Gametocytes and Transmission: An Individual Patient Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Since the World Health Organization recommended single low-dose (0.25 mg/kg) primaquine (PQ) in combination with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) in areas of low transmission or artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, several single-site studies have been conducted to assess efficacy.

METHODS

An individual patient meta-analysis to assess gametocytocidal and transmission-blocking efficacy of PQ in combination with different ACTs was conducted. Random effects logistic regression was used to quantify PQ effect on (1) gametocyte carriage in the first 2 weeks post treatment; and (2) the probability of infecting at least 1 mosquito or of a mosquito becoming infected.

RESULTS

In 2574 participants from 14 studies, PQ reduced PCR-determined gametocyte carriage on days 7 and 14, most apparently in patients presenting with gametocytemia on day 0 (odds ratio [OR], 0.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], .17-.28 and OR, 0.12; 95% CI, .08-.16, respectively). Rate of decline in gametocyte carriage was faster when PQ was combined with artemether-lumefantrine (AL) compared to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) (P = .010 for day 7). Addition of 0.25 mg/kg PQ was associated with near complete prevention of transmission to mosquitoes.

CONCLUSIONS

Transmission blocking is achieved with 0.25 mg/kg PQ. Gametocyte persistence and infectivity are lower when PQ is combined with AL compared to DP.

High Genetic Diversity of Plasmodium falciparum in the Low-Transmission Setting of the Kingdom of Eswatini

BACKGROUND

To better understand transmission dynamics, we characterized Plasmodium falciparum genetic diversity in Eswatini, where transmission is low and sustained by importation.

METHODS

Twenty-six P. falciparum microsatellites were genotyped in 66% of confirmed cases (2014-2016; N = 582). Population and within-host diversity were used to characterize differences between imported and locally acquired infections. Logistic regression was used to assess the added value of diversity metrics to classify imported and local infections beyond epidemiology data alone.

RESULTS

Parasite population in Eswatini was highly diverse (expected heterozygosity [HE] = 0.75) and complex: 67% polyclonal infections, mean multiplicity of infection (MOI) 2.2, and mean within-host infection fixation index (FWS) 0.84. Imported cases had comparable diversity to local cases but exhibited higher MOI (2.4 vs 2.0; P = .004) and lower mean FWS (0.82 vs 0.85; P = .03). Addition of MOI and FWS to multivariate analyses did not increase discrimination between imported and local infections.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to the common perception that P. falciparum diversity declines with decreasing transmission intensity, Eswatini isolates exhibited high parasite diversity consistent with high rates of malaria importation and limited local transmission. Estimates of malaria transmission intensity from genetic data need to consider the effect of importation, especially as countries near elimination.

Effectiveness of reactive focal mass drug administration and reactive focal vector control to reduce malaria transmission in the low malaria-endemic setting of Namibia: a cluster-randomised controlled, open-label, two-by-two factorial design trial

BACKGROUND

In low malaria-endemic settings, screening and treatment of individuals in close proximity to index cases, also known as reactive case detection (RACD), is practised for surveillance and response. However, other approaches could be more effective for reducing transmission. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) and reactive focal vector control (RAVC) in the low malaria-endemic setting of Zambezi (Namibia).

METHODS

We did a cluster-randomised controlled, open-label trial using a two-by-two factorial design of 56 enumeration area clusters in the low malaria-endemic setting of Zambezi (Namibia). We randomly assigned these clusters using restricted randomisation to four groups: RACD only, rfMDA only, RAVC plus RACD, or rfMDA plus RAVC. RACD involved rapid diagnostic testing and treatment with artemether-lumefantrine and single-dose primaquine, rfMDA involved presumptive treatment with artemether-lumefantrine, and RAVC involved indoor residual spraying with pirimiphos-methyl. Interventions were administered within 500 m of index cases. To evaluate the effectiveness of interventions targeting the parasite reservoir in humans (rfMDA vs RACD), in mosquitoes (RAVC vs no RAVC), and in both humans and mosquitoes (rfMDA plus RAVC vs RACD only), an intention-to-treat analysis was done. For each of the three comparisons, the primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of locally acquired malaria cases. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02610400.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2017, 55 enumeration area clusters had 1118 eligible index cases that led to 342 interventions covering 8948 individuals. The cumulative incidence of locally acquired malaria was 30·8 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 12·8-48·7) in the clusters that received rfMDA versus 38·3 per 1000 person-years (23·0-53·6) in the clusters that received RACD; 30·2 per 1000 person-years (15·0-45·5) in the clusters that received RAVC versus 38·9 per 1000 person-years (20·7-57·1) in the clusters that did not receive RAVC; and 25·0 per 1000 person-years (5·2-44·7) in the clusters that received rfMDA plus RAVC versus 41·4 per 1000 person-years (21·5-61·2) in the clusters that received RACD only. After adjusting for imbalances in baseline and implementation factors, the incidence of malaria was lower in clusters receiving rfMDA than in those receiving RACD (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0·52 [95% CI 0·16-0·88], p=0·009), lower in clusters receiving RAVC than in those that did not (0·48 [0·16-0·80], p=0·002), and lower in clusters that received rfMDA plus RAVC than in those receiving RACD only (0·26 [0·10-0·68], p=0·006). No serious adverse events were reported.

INTERPRETATION

In a low malaria-endemic setting, rfMDA and RAVC, implemented alone and in combination, reduced malaria transmission and should be considered as alternatives to RACD for elimination of malaria.

FUNDING

Novartis Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Horchow Family Fund.

District-level approach for tailoring and targeting interventions: a new path for malaria control and elimination

Despite huge investments and implementation of effective interventions for malaria, progress has stalled, with transmission being increasingly localized among difficult-to-reach populations and outdoor-biting vectors. Targeting difficult pockets of transmission will require the development of tailored and targeted approaches suited to local context, drawing from insights close to the frontlines. Districts are best placed to develop tailored, locally appropriate approaches. We propose a reorganization of how malaria services are delivered. Firstly, enabling district health officers to serve as conduits between technical experts in national malaria control programmes and local community leaders with knowledge specific to local, at-risk populations; secondly, empowering district health teams to make malaria control decisions. This is a radical shift that requires the national programme to cede some control. Shifting towards a district or provincial level approach will necessitate deliberate planning, and repeated, careful assessment, starting with piloting and learning through experience. Donors will need to alter current practice, allowing for flexible funding to be controlled at sub-national levels, and to mix finances between case management, vector control and surveillance, monitoring and evaluation. System-wide changes proposed are challenging but may be necessary to overcome stalled progress in malaria control and elimination and introduce targeted interventions tailored to the needs of diverse malaria affected populations.

Study protocol for a cluster-randomized split-plot design trial to assess the effectiveness of targeted active malaria case detection among high-risk populations in Southern Lao PDR (the AcME-Lao study)

Introduction: Novel interventions are needed to accelerate malaria elimination, especially in areas where asymptomatic parasitemia is common, and where transmission generally occurs outside of village-based settings. Testing of community members linked to a person with clinical illness (reactive case detection, RACD) has not shown effectiveness in prior studies due to the limited sensitivity of current point-of-care tests. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of active case finding in village-based and forested-based settings using novel high-sensitivity rapid diagnostic tests in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR).

Methods and analysis: This study is a cluster-randomized split-plot design trial. The interventions include village-based mass test and treat (MTAT), focal test and treat in high-risk populations (FTAT), and the combination of these approaches, using high-sensitivity rapid diagnostic tests (HS-RDTs) to asses P. falciparum infection status. Within four districts in Champasak province, Lao PDR fourteen health center-catchment areas will be randomized to either FTAT or control; and within these HCCAs, 56 villages will be randomized to either MTAT or control. In intervention areas, FTAT will be conducted by community-based peer navigators on a routine basis, and three separate rounds of MTAT are planned. The primary study outcome will be PCR-based Plasmodium falciparum prevalence after one year of implementation. Secondary outcomes include malaria incidence; interventional coverage; operational feasibility and acceptability; and cost and cost- effectiveness.

Ethics and dissemination: Findings will be reported on clinicaltrials.gov, in peer-reviewed publications and through stakeholder meetings with Ministry of Health and community leaders in Lao PDR and throughout the Greater Mekong Subregion.

Trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03783299 (21/12/2018)

FLASH: a next-generation CRISPR diagnostic for multiplexed detection of antimicrobial resistance sequences

The growing prevalence of deadly microbes with resistance to previously life-saving drug therapies is a dire threat to human health. Detection of low abundance pathogen sequences remains a challenge for metagenomic Next Generation Sequencing (NGS). We introduce FLASH (Finding Low Abundance Sequences by Hybridization), a next-generation CRISPR/Cas9 diagnostic method that takes advantage of the efficiency, specificity and flexibility of Cas9 to enrich for a programmed set of sequences. FLASH-NGS achieves up to 5 orders of magnitude of enrichment and sub-attomolar gene detection with minimal background. We provide an open-source software tool (FLASHit) for guide RNA design. Here we applied it to detection of antimicrobial resistance genes in respiratory fluid and dried blood spots, but FLASH-NGS is applicable to all areas that rely on multiplex PCR.

What is community engagement and how can it drive malaria elimination? Case studies and stakeholder interviews

Background

In light of increasing complexity of identifying and treating malaria cases in low transmission settings, operational solutions are needed to increase effective delivery of interventions. Community engagement (CE) is at the forefront of this conversation given the shift toward creating local and site-specific solutions. Malaria programmes often confuse CE with providing information to the community or implementing community-based interventions. This study seeks to expand on CE approaches for malaria by looking to a variety of health and development programmes for lessons that can be applied to malaria elimination.

Methods

Qualitative data was collected from key informant interviews and community-based focus group discussions. Manual analysis was conducted with a focus on key principles, programme successes and challenges, the operational framework, and any applicable results.

Results

Ten programmes were included in the analysis: Ebola, HIV/Hepatitis C, Guinea worm, malaria, nutrition, and water, sanitation and hygiene. Seven focus group discussions (FGDs) with 69 participants, 49 key informant (KI) interviews with programme staff, and 7 KI interviews with thought leaders were conducted between October–April 2018. Participants discussed the critical role that village leaders and community health workers play in CE. Many programmes stated understanding community priorities is key for CE and that CE should be proactive and iterative. A major theme was prioritizing bi-directional interpersonal communication led by local community health workers. Programmes reported that measuring CE is difficult, particularly since CE is ongoing and fluid.

Conclusions

Results overwhelmingly suggest that CE must be an iterative process that relies on early involvement, frequent feedback and active community participation to be successful. Empowering districts and communities in planning and executing community-based interventions is necessary. Communities affected by the disease will ultimately achieve malaria elimination. For this to happen, the community itself must define, believe in, and commit to strategies to interrupt transmission.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2878-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A sensitive method for the recovery of Escherichia coli serogroup O55 including Shiga toxin-producing variants for potential use in outbreaks

AIM

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) cause bloody diarrhoea, kidney failure and occasionally death. However, identifying the source of infection caused by STEC other than serogroup O157 is hampered by the availability of sensitive methods for detecting these pathogens. In this study, we developed novel tools for detecting E. coli O55 that is potentially associated with human outbreaks.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Overall specificity of immuno-magnetic separation (IMS) beads coated with anti-O55 serum was good with exception of cross-reactivity with E. coli O22 and O23, which was eliminated using an O55-specific PCR. Limit of detection for E. coli O55 using O55-IMS beads in spiked cattle faeces was on average 50 CFU per ml (range 1-90), and improved to <10 CFU per ml using the O55-specific PCR, following IMS on samples enriched for 2 h with E. coli O55. Application of these tools to test cattle faeces collected on-farm allowed the isolation of O55:H19, which through whole genome sequencing was compared to STEC O55:H7 human outbreak strains.

CONCLUSION

These tools provide a sensitive method which could be used to screen samples for STEC O55, whether environmental or human clinical.

SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY

Several human outbreaks reported in England were caused by STEC O55:H7. Tools developed here could assist in identification of the environmental source for these isolates, which has not yet been established.

Safety of Single-Dose Primaquine in G6PD-Deficient and G6PD-Normal Males in Mali Without Malaria: An Open-Label, Phase 1, Dose-Adjustment Trial

Background

The World Health Organization recommendation on the use of a single low dose of primaquine (SLD-PQ) to reduce Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission requires more safety data.

Methods

We conducted an open-label, nonrandomized, dose-adjustment trial of the safety of 3 single doses of primaquine in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficient adult males in Mali, followed by an assessment of safety in G6PD-deficient boys aged 11–17 years and those aged 5–10 years, including G6PD-normal control groups. The primary outcome was the greatest within-person percentage drop in hemoglobin concentration within 10 days after treatment.

Results

Fifty-one participants were included in analysis. G6PD-deficient adult males received 0.40, 0.45, or 0.50 mg/kg of SLD-PQ. G6PD-deficient boys received 0.40 mg/kg of SLD-PQ. There was no evidence of symptomatic hemolysis, and adverse events considered related to study drug (n = 4) were mild. The mean largest within-person percentage change in hemoglobin level between days 0 and 10 was −9.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], −13.5% to −5.90%) in G6PD-deficient adults receiving 0.50 mg/kg of SLD-PQ, −11.5% (95% CI, −16.1% to −6.96%) in G6PD-deficient boys aged 11–17 years, and −9.61% (95% CI, −7.59% to −13.9%) in G6PD-deficient boys aged 5–10 years. The lowest hemoglobin concentration at any point during the study was 92 g/L.

Conclusion

SLD-PQ doses between 0.40 and 0.50 mg/kg were well tolerated in G6PD-deficient males in Mali.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT02535767.

Assessing malaria risk at night-time venues in a low-transmission setting: a time-location sampling study in Zambezi, Namibia

Background

Identifying efficient and effective strategies to reach and monitor populations at greatest risk of malaria in low-transmission settings is a key challenge for malaria elimination. In Namibia’s Zambezi Region, transmission is ongoing yet its drivers remain poorly understood. A growing literature suggests that night-time social activities may lead to malaria exposure that is beyond the reach of conventional preventive interventions, such as insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying.

Methods

Formative research was conducted with community members in March, 2015 in the catchment areas of six randomly selected health facilities in the western Zambezi Region to identify night-time locations where large numbers of individuals regularly congregate. Using time-location sampling, a survey was conducted between March and May, 2015 at community-identified venues (bars and evening church services) to develop representative estimates of the prevalence of parasite infection and risk factors among venue-goers.

Results

When compared to a contemporaneous household survey of the general population aged 15 and older (N = 1160), venue-goers (N = 480) were more likely to have spent the night away from their home recently (17.3% vs. 8.9%, P = 0.008), report recent fever (65.2% vs. 36.9%, P < 0.001), and were less likely to have sought care for fever (37.9% vs. 52.1%, P = 0.011). Venue-goers had higher, but not significantly different, rates of malaria infection (4.7% vs. 2.8%, P = 0.740). Risk factors for malaria infection among venue-goers could not be determined due to the small number of infections identified, however self-reported fever was positively associated with outdoor livelihood activities (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.9, 95% CI 1.0–3.3), not wearing protective measures at the time of the survey (AOR = 6.8, 9% CI 1.4–33.6) and having been bothered by mosquitos at the venue (AOR = 2.7, 95% CI 1.5–4).

Conclusions

Prevention measures and continued surveillance at night-time venues may be a useful complement to existing malaria elimination efforts.

The temporal dynamics and infectiousness of subpatent Plasmodium falciparum infections in relation to parasite density

Malaria infections occurring below the limit of detection of standard diagnostics are common in all endemic settings. However, key questions remain surrounding their contribution to sustaining transmission and whether they need to be detected and targeted to achieve malaria elimination. In this study we analyse a range of malaria datasets to quantify the density, detectability, course of infection and infectiousness of subpatent infections. Asymptomatically infected individuals have lower parasite densities on average in low transmission settings compared to individuals in higher transmission settings. In cohort studies, subpatent infections are found to be predictive of future periods of patent infection and in membrane feeding studies, individuals infected with subpatent asexual parasite densities are found to be approximately a third as infectious to mosquitoes as individuals with patent (asexual parasite) infection. These results indicate that subpatent infections contribute to the infectious reservoir, may be long lasting, and require more sensitive diagnostics to detect them in lower transmission settings.

The role of subpatent infections for malaria transmission and elimination is unclear. Here, Slater et al. analyse several malaria datasets to quantify the density, detectability, course of infection and infectiousness of subpatent infections.

Protective Effect of Indoor Residual Spraying of Insecticide on Preterm Birth Among Pregnant Women With HIV Infection in Uganda: A Secondary Data Analysis

Background

Recent evidence demonstrated improved birth outcomes among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-uninfected pregnant women protected by indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS). Evidence regarding its impact on HIV-infected pregnant women is lacking.

Methods

Data were pooled from 2 studies conducted before and after an IRS campaign in Tororo, Uganda, among HIV-infected pregnant women who received bed nets, daily trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and combination antiretroviral therapy at enrollment. Exposure was the proportion of pregnancy protected by IRS. Adverse birth outcomes included preterm birth, low birth weight, and fetal or neonatal death. Multivariate Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used to estimate risk ratios.

Results

Of 565 women in our analysis, 380 (67%), 88 (16%), and 97 (17%) women were protected by IRS for 0%, >0% to 90%, and >90% of their pregnancy, respectively. Any IRS protection significantly reduced malaria incidence during pregnancy and placental malaria risk. Compared with no IRS protection, >90% IRS protection reduced preterm birth risk (risk ratio, 0.35; 95% confidence interval, .15-.84), with nonsignificant decreases in the risk of low birth weight (0.68; .29-1.57) and fetal or neonatal death (0.24; .04-1.52).

Discussion

Our exploratory analyses support the hypothesis that IRS may significantly reduce malaria and preterm birth risk among pregnant women with HIV receiving bed nets, daily trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and combination antiretroviral therapy.

Malaria Elimination: Time to Target All Species

Important strides have been made within the past decade toward malaria elimination in many regions, and with this progress, the feasibility of eradication is once again under discussion. If the ambitious goal of eradication is to be achieved by 2040, all species of Plasmodium infecting humans will need to be targeted with evidence-based and concerted interventions. In this perspective, the potential barriers to achieving global malaria elimination are discussed with respect to the related diversities in host, parasite, and vector populations. We argue that control strategies need to be reorientated from a sequential attack on each species, dominated by Plasmodium falciparum to one that targets all species in parallel. A set of research themes is proposed to mitigate the potential setbacks on the pathway to a malaria-free world.

Efficacy and safety of primaquine and methylene blue for prevention of Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Mali: a phase 2, single-blind, randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Primaquine and methylene blue are gametocytocidal compounds that could prevent Plasmodium falciparum transmission to mosquitoes. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of primaquine and methylene blue in preventing human to mosquito transmission of P falciparum among glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-normal, gametocytaemic male participants.

METHODS

This was a phase 2, single-blind, randomised controlled trial done at the Clinical Research Centre of the Malaria Research and Training Centre (MRTC) of the University of Bamako (Bamako, Mali). We enrolled male participants aged 5-50 years with asymptomatic P falciparum malaria. G6PD-normal participants with gametocytes detected by blood smear were randomised 1:1:1:1 in block sizes of eight, using a sealed-envelope design, to receive either sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine plus a single dose of 0·25 mg/kg primaquine, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus 15 mg/kg per day methylene blue for 3 days. Laboratory staff, investigators, and insectary technicians were masked to the treatment group and gametocyte density of study participants. The study pharmacist and treating physician were not masked. Participants could request unmasking. The primary efficacy endpoint, analysed in all infected patients with at least one infectivity measure before and after treatment, was median within-person percentage change in mosquito infectivity 2 and 7 days after treatment, assessed by membrane feeding. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02831023.

FINDINGS

Between June 27, 2016, and Nov 1, 2016, 80 participants were enrolled and assigned to the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine (n=20), sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine plus primaquine (n=20), dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (n=20), or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus methylene blue (n=20) groups. Among participants infectious at baseline (54 [68%] of 80), those in the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine plus primaquine group (n=19) had a median 100% (IQR 100 to 100) within-person reduction in mosquito infectivity on day 2, a larger reduction than was noted with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine alone (n=12; -10·2%, IQR -143·9 to 56·6; p<0·0001). The dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus methylene blue (n=11) group had a median 100% (IQR 100 to 100) within-person reduction in mosquito infectivity on day 2, a larger reduction than was noted with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine alone (n=12; -6·0%, IQR -126·1 to 86·9; p<0·0001). Haemoglobin changes were similar between gametocytocidal arms and their respective controls. After exclusion of blue urine, adverse events were similar across all groups (59 [74%] of 80 participants had 162 adverse events overall, 145 [90%] of which were mild).

INTERPRETATION

Adding a single dose of 0·25 mg/kg primaquine to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and amodiaquine or 3 days of 15 mg/kg per day methylene blue to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine was highly efficacious for preventing P falciparum transmission. Both primaquine and methylene blue were well tolerated.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, European Research Council.

Is there a correlation between malaria incidence and IRS coverage in western Zambezi region, Namibia?

Setting: A comparison of routine Namibia National Malaria Programme data (reported) vs. household survey data (administrative) on indoor residual spraying (IRS) in western Zambezi region, Namibia, for the 2014-2015 malaria season. Objectives: To determine 1) IRS coverage (administrative and reported), 2) its effect on malaria incidence, and 3) reasons for non-uptake of IRS in western Zambezi region, Namibia, for the 2014-2015 malaria season. Design: This was a descriptive study. Results: IRS coverage in western Zambezi region was low, ranging from 42.3% to 52.2% for administrative coverage vs. 45.9-66.7% for reported coverage. There was no significant correlation between IRS coverage and malaria incidence for this region (r = -0.45, P = 0.22). The main reasons for households not being sprayed were that residents were not at home during spraying times or that spray operators did not visit the households. Conclusions: IRS coverage in western Zambezi region, Namibia, was low during the 2014-2015 malaria season because of poor community engagement and awareness of times for spray operations within communities. Higher IRS coverage could be achieved through improved community engagement. Better targeting of the highest risk areas by the use of malaria surveillance will be required to mitigate malaria transmission.

Low risk of recurrence following artesunate-Sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine plus primaquine for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections in the Republic of the Sudan

BACKGROUND

First-line schizontocidal treatment for uncomplicated malaria in the Republic of the Sudan is artesunate (total dose 12 mg/kg) plus Sulphadoxine/pyrimethamine (25/1.25 mg/kg) (AS/SP). Patients with Plasmodium vivax are also treated with 14 days primaquine (total dose 3.5 mg/kg) (PQ). The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of the national policy.

METHODS

Patients above 1 year, with microscopy-confirmed, Plasmodium falciparum and/or P. vivax malaria were treated with AS/SP. Patients with P. falciparum were randomized to no primaquine (Pf-noPQ) or a single 0.25 mg/kg dose of PQ (Pf-PQ1). Patients with P. vivax received 14 days unsupervised 3.5 mg/kg PQ (Pv-PQ14) on day 2 or at the end of follow up (Pv-noPQ). Primary endpoint was the risk of recurrent parasitaemia at day 42. G6PD activity was measured by spectrophotometry and the Accessbio Biosensor™.

RESULTS

231 patients with P. falciparum (74.8%), 77 (24.9%) with P. vivax and 1 (0.3%) patient with mixed infection were enrolled. The PCR corrected cumulative risk of recurrent parasitaemia on day 42 was 3.8% (95% CI 1.2-11.2%) in the Pf-noPQ arm compared to 0.9% (95% CI 0.1-6.0%) in the Pf-PQ1 arm; (HR = 0.25 [95% CI 0.03-2.38], p = 0.189). The corresponding risks of recurrence were 13.4% (95% CI 5.2-31.9%) in the Pv-noPQ arm and 5.3% (95% CI 1.3-19.4%) in the Pv-PQ14 arm (HR 0.36 [95% CI 0.1-2.0], p = 0.212). Two (0.9%) patients had G6PD enzyme activity below 10%, 19 (8.9%) patients below 60% of the adjusted male median. Correlation between spectrophotometry and Biosensor™ was low (r_s = 0.330, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

AS/SP remains effective for the treatment of P. falciparum and P. vivax. The addition of PQ reduced the risk of recurrent P. falciparum and P. vivax by day 42, although this did not reach statistical significance. The version of the Biosensor™ assessed is not suitable for routine use. Trial registration https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02592408.

Study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled factorial design trial to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of reactive focal mass drug administration and vector control to reduce malaria transmission in the low endemic setting of Namibia

INTRODUCTION

To interrupt malaria transmission, strategies must target the parasite reservoir in both humans and mosquitos. Testing of community members linked to an index case, termed reactive case detection (RACD), is commonly implemented in low transmission areas, though its impact may be limited by the sensitivity of current diagnostics. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) before malaria season is a cornerstone of vector control efforts. Despite their implementation in Namibia, a country approaching elimination, these methods have been met with recent plateaus in transmission reduction. This study evaluates the effectiveness and feasibility of two new targeted strategies, reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) and reactive focal vector control (RAVC) in Namibia.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an open-label cluster randomised controlled trial with 2×2 factorial design. The interventions include: rfMDA (presumptive treatment with artemether-lumefantrine (AL)) versus RACD (rapid diagnostic testing and treatment using AL) and RAVC (IRS with Acellic 300CS) versus no RAVC. Factorial design also enables comparison of the combined rfMDA+RAVC intervention to RACD. Participants living in 56 enumeration areas will be randomised to one of four arms: rfMDA, rfMDA+RAVC, RACD or RACD+RAVC. These interventions, triggered by index cases detected at health facilities, will be targeted to individuals residing within 500 m of an index. The primary outcome is cumulative incidence of locally acquired malaria detected at health facilities over 1 year. Secondary outcomes include seroprevalence, infection prevalence, intervention coverage, safety, acceptability, adherence, cost and cost-effectiveness.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Findings will be reported on clinicaltrials.gov, in peer-reviewed publications and through stakeholder meetings with MoHSS and community leaders in Namibia.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02610400; Pre-results.

Spatial Distribution of Falciparum Malaria Infections in Zanzibar: Implications for Focal Drug Administration Strategies Targeting Asymptomatic Parasite Carriers

Background.

Optimal use of mass/targeted screen-and-treat or mass or focal drug administration as malaria elimination strategies remains unclear. We therefore studied spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum infections to compare simulated effects of these strategies on reducing the parasite reservoir in a pre-elimination setting.

Methods.

P. falciparum rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and molecular (polymerase chain reaction [PCR]) and serological (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) analyses were performed on finger-prick blood samples from a population-based survey in 3 adjacent communities.

Results.

Among 5278 persons screened, 13 (0.2%) were positive by RDT and 123 (2.3%) by PCR. PCR-positive individuals were scattered over the study area, but logistic regression analysis suggested a propensity of these infections to cluster around RDT-positive individuals. The odds ratios for being PCR positive was 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.8–19.9) for those living in the household of an RDT-positive individual and 1.64 (1.0–2.8; P = .06) for those living within <300 m, compared with >1000 m. Treating everyone within households of RDT-positive individuals (1% population) would target 13% of those who are PCR positive. Treating all living within a radius of <300 or <1000 m (14% or 58% population) would target 30% or 66% of infections, respectively. Among 4431 serologically screened individuals, 26% were seropositive. Treating everyone within seropositive households (63% population) would target 77% of PCR-positive individuals.

Conclusions.

Presumptive malaria treatment seemed justified within RDT-positive households and potentially worth considering within, for example, a radius of <300 m. Serology was not discriminative enough in identifying ongoing infections for improving focal interventions in this setting but may rather be useful to detect larger transmission foci.

Attacking the mosquito on multiple fronts: Insights from the Vector Control Optimization Model (VCOM) for malaria elimination

BACKGROUND

Despite great achievements by insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in reducing malaria transmission, it is unlikely these tools will be sufficient to eliminate malaria transmission on their own in many settings today. Fortunately, field experiments indicate that there are many promising vector control interventions that can be used to complement ITNs and/or IRS by targeting a wide range of biological and environmental mosquito resources. The majority of these experiments were performed to test a single vector control intervention in isolation; however, there is growing evidence and consensus that effective vector control with the goal of malaria elimination will require a combination of interventions.

METHOD AND FINDINGS

We have developed a model of mosquito population dynamic to describe the mosquito life and feeding cycles and to optimize the impact of vector control intervention combinations at suppressing mosquito populations. The model simulations were performed for the main three malaria vectors in sub-Saharan Africa, Anopheles gambiae s.s, An. arabiensis and An. funestus. We considered areas having low, moderate and high malaria transmission, corresponding to entomological inoculation rates of 10, 50 and 100 infective bites per person per year, respectively. In all settings, we considered baseline ITN coverage of 50% or 80% in addition to a range of other vector control tools to interrupt malaria transmission. The model was used to sweep through parameters space to select the best optimal intervention packages. Sample model simulations indicate that, starting with ITNs at a coverage of 50% (An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus) or 80% (An. arabiensis) and adding interventions that do not require human participation (e.g. larviciding at 80% coverage, endectocide treated cattle at 50% coverage and attractive toxic sugar baits at 50% coverage) may be sufficient to suppress all the three species to an extent required to achieve local malaria elimination.

CONCLUSION

The Vector Control Optimization Model (VCOM) is a computational tool to predict the impact of combined vector control interventions at the mosquito population level in a range of eco-epidemiological settings. The model predicts specific combinations of vector control tools to achieve local malaria elimination in a range of eco-epidemiological settings and can assist researchers and program decision-makers on the design of experimental or operational research to test vector control interventions. A corresponding graphical user interface is available for national malaria control programs and other end users.