Is Austerity Responsible for the Stalled Mortality Trends Across Many High-Income Countries? A Systematic Review

This article systematically reviews evidence evaluating whether macroeconomic austerity policies impact mortality, reviewing high-income country data compiled through systematic searches of nine databases and gray literature using pre-specified methods (PROSPERO registration: CRD42020226609). Eligible studies were quantitatively assessed to determine austerity's impact on mortality. Two reviewers independently assessed eligibility and risk of bias using ROBINS-I. Synthesis without meta-analysis was conducted due to heterogeneity. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE framework. Of 5,720 studies screened, seven were included, with harmful effects of austerity policies demonstrated in six, and no effect in one. Consistent harmful impacts of austerity were demonstrated for all-cause mortality, life expectancy, and cause-specific mortality across studies and different austerity measures. Excess mortality was higher in countries with greater exposure to austerity. Certainty of evidence was low. Risk of bias was moderate to critical. A typical austerity dose was associated with 74,090 [-40,632, 188,792] and 115,385 [26,324, 204,446] additional deaths per year. Austerity policies are consistently associated with adverse mortality outcomes, but the magnitude of this effect remains uncertain and may depend on how austerity is implemented (e.g., balance between public spending reductions or tax rises, and distributional consequences). Policymakers should be aware of potential harmful health effects of austerity policies.

Childhood attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder: socioeconomic inequalities in symptoms, impact, diagnosis and medication

BACKGROUND

Children from disadvantaged backgrounds are at greater risk of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)-related symptoms, being diagnosed with ADHD, and being prescribed ADHD medications. We aimed to examine how inequalities manifest across the 'patient journey', from perceptions of impacts of ADHD symptoms on daily life, to the propensity to seek and receive a diagnosis and treatment.

METHODS

We investigated four 'stages': (1) symptoms, (2) caregiver perception of impact, (3) diagnosis and (4) medication, in two data sets: UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS, analytic n ~ 9,000), with relevant (parent-reported) information on all four stages (until 14 years); and a population-wide 'administrative cohort', which includes symptoms (child health checks) and prescriptions (dispensing records), born in Scotland, 2010-2012 (analytic n ~ 100,000), until ~6 years. We described inequalities according to maternal occupational status, with percentages and relative indices of inequality (RII).

RESULTS

The prevalence of ADHD symptoms and medication receipt was considerably higher in the least compared to the most advantaged children in the administrative cohort (RIIs of 5.9 [5.5-6.4] and 8.1 [4.2-15.6]) and the MCS (3.08 [2.68-3.55], 3.75 [2.21-6.36]). MCS analyses highlighted complexities between these two stages, however, those from least advantaged backgrounds, with ADHD symptoms, were the least likely to perceive impacts on daily life (15.7% vs. average 19.5%) and to progress from diagnosis to medication (44.1% vs. average 72.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite large inequalities in ADHD symptoms and medication, parents from the least advantaged backgrounds were less likely to report impacts of ADHD symptoms on daily life, and their children were less likely to have received medication postdiagnosis, highlighting how patient journeys differed according to socioeconomic circumstances.

Social security cuts and life expectancy: a longitudinal analysis of local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales

BACKGROUND

The UK Government's 'welfare reform' programme included reductions to social security payments, phased in over the financial years 2011/2012-2015/2016. Previous studies of social security cuts and health outcomes have been restricted to analysing single UK countries or single payment types (eg, housing benefit). We examined the association between all social security cuts fully implemented by 2016 and life expectancy, for local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales.

METHODS

Our unit of analysis was 201 upper tier local authorities (unitary authorities and county councils: 147 in England, 32 in Scotland, 22 in Wales). Our exposure was estimated social security loss per head of the working age population per year for each local authority, calculated against the baseline in 2010/2011. The primary outcome was annual life expectancy at birth between the calendar years 2012 and 2016 (year lagged following exposure). We used a panel regression approach with fixed effects.

RESULTS

Social security cuts implemented by 2016 were estimated to be £475 per head of the working age population in England, £390 in Scotland and £490 in Wales since 2010/2011. During the study period, there was either no improvement or only marginal increases in national life expectancy. Social security loss and life expectancy were significantly associated: an estimated £100 decrease in social security per head of working age population was associated with a 1-month reduction in life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Social security cuts, at the UK local authority level, were associated with lower life expectancy. Further research should examine causality.

Using administrative data to evaluate national policy impacts on child and maternal health: a research framework from the Maternal and Child Health Network (MatCHNet)

Reducing health inequalities by addressing the social circumstances in which children are conceived and raised is a societal priority. Early interventions are key to improving outcomes in childhood and long-term into adulthood. Across the UK nations, there is strong political commitment to invest in the early years. National policy interventions aim to tackle health inequalities and deliver health equity for all children. Evidence to determine the effectiveness of socio-structural policies on child health outcomes is especially pressing given the current social and economic challenges facing policy-makers and families with children. As an alternative to clinical trials or evaluating local interventions, we propose a research framework that supports evaluating the impact of whole country policies on child health outcomes. Three key research challenges must be addressed to enable such evaluations and improve policy for child health: (1) policy prioritisation, (2) identification of comparable data and (3) application of robust methods.

Evaluation of the Healthy Start voucher scheme on maternal vitamin use and child breastfeeding: a natural experiment using data linkage

Background

Having a good start in life during pregnancy and infancy has been shown to be important for living both a healthy life and a longer life. Despite the introduction of many policies for the early-years age group, including voucher schemes, with the aim of improving nutrition, there is limited evidence of their impact on health.

Objectives

To assess the effectiveness of the Healthy Start voucher scheme on infant, child and maternal outcomes, and to capture the lived experiences of the Healthy Start voucher scheme for low-income women.

Design

This was a natural experiment study using existing data sets, linked to routinely collected health data sets, with a nested qualitative study of low-income women and an assessment of the health economics.

Setting

Representative sample of Scottish children and UK children.

Participants

Growing Up in Scotland cohort 2 (n = 2240), respondents to the 2015 Infant Feeding Study (n = 8067) and a sample of 40 participants in the qualitative study.

Interventions

The Health Start voucher, a means-tested scheme that provides vouchers worth £3.10 per week to spend on liquid milk, formula milk, fruit and vegetables.

Main outcome measures

Infant and child outcomes - breastfeeding initiation and duration; maternal outcomes - vitamin use pre and during pregnancy.

Results

The exposed group were women receiving the Healthy Start voucher (R), with two control groups: eligible and not claiming the Healthy Start voucher (E) and nearly eligible. There was no difference in vitamin use during pregnancy for either comparison (receiving the Healthy Start voucher, 82%; eligible and not claiming the Healthy Start voucher, 86%; p = 0.10 vs. receiving the Healthy Start voucher, 87%; nearly eligible, 88%; p = 0.43) in the Growing Up in Scotland cohort. Proportions were similar for the Infant Feeding Study cohort (receiving the Healthy Start voucher, 89%; eligible and not claiming the Healthy Start voucher, 86%; p = 0.01 vs. receiving the Healthy Start voucher, 89%; nearly eligible, 87%; p = 0.01); although results were statistically significantly different, these were small effect sizes. There was no difference for either comparison in breastfeeding initiation or breastfeeding duration in months in Growing Up in Scotland, but there was a negative effect of the Healthy Start voucher in the Infant Feeding Survey. This contrast between data sets indicates that results are inconclusive for breastfeeding. The qualitative study found that despite the low monetary value the women valued the Healthy Start voucher scheme. However, the broader lives of low-income women are crucial to understand the constraints to offer a healthy diet.

Limitations

Owing to the policy being in place, it was difficult to identify appropriate control groups using existing data sources, especially in the Infant Feeding Study.

Conclusions

As the Healthy Start voucher scheme attempts to influence health behaviour, this evaluation can inform other policies aiming to change behaviour and use voucher incentives. The null effect of Healthy Start vouchers on the primary outcomes may be due to the value of the vouchers being insufficient to change the broader lives of low-income women to offer a healthy diet.

Future work

The methods developed to undertake an economic evaluation alongside a natural experiment using existing data can be used to explore the cost-effectiveness of the Healthy Start voucher scheme.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 11, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Prevalence of adult smokers in Brazilian capitals according to socioeconomic deprivation

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of adult smokers in the 26 capitals and the Federal District according to the Brazilian Deprivation Index (Índice Brasileiro de Privação - IBP).

METHODS

Dataset on smoking were obtained from the Surveillance of Risk and Protective Factors for Noncommunicable Diseases by Survey (Vigitel) system for the 26 capitals and the Federal District, in the period from 2010 to 2013. The IBP classifies the census sectors according to indicators such as: income less than ½ minimum wage, illiterate population and without sanitary sewage. In the North and Northeast regions, the census sectors were grouped into four categories (low, medium, high and very high deprivation) and in the South, Southeast and Midwest regions into three (low, medium and high deprivation). Prevalence estimates of adult smokers were obtained using the indirect estimation method in small areas. To calculate the prevalence ratios, Poisson models are used.

RESULTS

The positive association between prevalence and deprivation of census sector categories was found in 16 (59.3%) of the 27 cities. In nine (33.3%) cities, the sectors with the greatest deprivation had a higher prevalence of smokers when compared to those with the least deprivation, and in two (7.4%) there were no differences. In Aracaju, Belém, Fortaleza, João Pessoa, Macapá and Salvador, the prevalence of adult smokers was three times higher in the group of sectors with greater deprivation compared to those with less deprivation.

CONCLUSION

Sectors with greater social deprivation had a higher prevalence of smoking, compared with less deprivation, pointing to social inequalities.

Maternal and child nutrition programme of investigation within the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort: study protocol

INTRODUCTION

There is a limited understanding of the early nutrition and pregnancy determinants of short-term and long-term maternal and child health in ethnically diverse and socioeconomically vulnerable populations within low-income and middle-income countries. This investigation programme aims to: (1) describe maternal weight trajectories throughout the life course; (2) describe child weight, height and body mass index (BMI) trajectories; (3) create and validate models to predict childhood obesity at 5 years of age; (4) estimate the effects of prepregnancy BMI, gestational weight gain (GWG) and maternal weight trajectories on adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes and child growth trajectories; (5) estimate the effects of prepregnancy BMI, GWG, maternal weight and interpregnancy BMI changes on maternal and child outcomes in the subsequent pregnancy; and (6) estimate the effects of maternal food consumption and infant feeding practices on child nutritional status and growth trajectories.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Linked data from four different Brazilian databases will be used: the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort, the Live Births Information System, the Mortality Information System and the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System. To analyse trajectories, latent-growth, superimposition by translation and rotation and broken stick models will be used. To create prediction models for childhood obesity, machine learning techniques will be applied. For the association between the selected exposure and outcomes variables, generalised linear models will be considered. Directed acyclic graphs will be constructed to identify potential confounders for each analysis investigating potential causal relationships.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol was approved by the Research Ethics Committees of the authors' institutions. The linkage will be carried out in a secure environment. After the linkage, the data will be de-identified, and pre-authorised researchers will access the data set via a virtual private network connection. Results will be reported in open-access journals and disseminated to policymakers and the broader public.

Identifying opportunities for upstream evaluations relevant to child and maternal health: a UK policy-mapping review

OBJECTIVE

Interventions to tackle the social determinants of health can improve outcomes during pregnancy and early childhood, leading to better health across the life course. Variation in content, timing and implementation of policies across the 4 UK nations allows for evaluation. We conducted a policy-mapping review (1981-2021) to identify relevant UK early years policies across the social determinants of health framework, and determine suitable candidates for evaluation using administrative data.

METHODS

We used open keyword and category searches of UK and devolved Government websites, and hand searched policy reviews. Policies were rated and included using five criteria: (1) Potential for policy to affect maternal and child health outcomes; (2) Implementation variation across the UK; (3) Population reach and expected effect size; (4) Ability to identify exposed/eligible group in administrative data; (5) Potential to affect health inequalities. An expert consensus workshop determined a final shortlist.

RESULTS

336 policies and 306 strategy documents were identified. Policies were mainly excluded due to criteria 2-4, leaving 88. The consensus workshop identified three policy areas as suitable candidates for natural experiment evaluation using administrative data: pregnancy grants, early years education and childcare, and Universal Credit.

CONCLUSION

Our comprehensive policy review identifies valuable opportunities to evaluate sociostructural impacts on mother and child outcomes. However, many potentially impactful policies were excluded. This may lead to the inverse evidence law, where there is least evidence for policies believed to be most effective. This could be ameliorated by better access to administrative data, staged implementation of future policies or alternative evaluation methods.

The health impact of Scotland's Baby Box Scheme: a natural experiment evaluation using national linked health data

BACKGROUND

Scotland's Baby Box Scheme (SBBS) is a national programme offering a box of essential items to all pregnant women in Scotland intended to improve infant and maternal health. We aimed to evaluate the effect of SBBS on selected infant and maternal health outcomes at population and subgroup levels (maternal age and area deprivation).

METHODS

Our complete-case, intention-to-treat evaluation used national health data (from the Scottish Morbidity Record [SMR] 01, SMR02, and the Child Health Surveillance Programme-Pre School), linking birth records to postnatal hospitalisation and universal health visitor records in Scotland. We considered maternal-infant pairs of all live-singleton births 2 years either side of SBBS introduction (Aug 17, 2015, to Aug 11, 2019). We estimated step-changes and trend-changes in outcomes (hospital admission and self-reported exclusive breastfeeding, tobacco smoke exposure, and infant sleeping position) by week of birth using segmented Poisson regression, adjusting for over-dispersion and seasonality where necessary.

FINDINGS

The analysis comprised 182 122 maternal-infant pairs. The prevalence of tobacco smoke exposure reduced after SBBS introduction: step decrease of 10% (prevalence ratio 0·904 [95% CI 0·865-0·946]; absolute decrease of 1·6% 1 month post-introduction) for infants and 9% (0·905 [0·862-0·950]; absolute decrease of 1·9% 1 month post-introduction) for the primary carer. There was no evidence of changes in infant and maternal all-cause hospital admissions or infant sleeping position. Among mothers younger than 25 years, there was a 10% step-increase in breastfeeding prevalence (1·095 [1·004-1·195]; absolute increase of 2·2% 1 month post-introduction) at 10 days and 17% (1·174 [1·037-1·328]) at 6-8 weeks postnatal. Although associations were robust to most sensitivity analyses, for smoke exposure associations were only observed early in the postnatal period.

INTERPRETATION

SBBS reduced infant and primary carer tobacco smoke exposure, and increased breastfeeding among young mothers in Scotland. However, absolute effects were small.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office, and National Records of Scotland.

Study protocol: examining the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation measures on pregnancy and birth outcomes in Scotland-a linked administrative data study

INTRODUCTION

This protocol outlines aims to test the wider impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on pregnancy and birth outcomes and inequalities in Scotland.

METHOD AND ANALYSIS

We will analyse Scottish linked administrative data for pregnancies and births before (March 2010 to March 2020) and during (April 2020 to October 2020) the pandemic. The Community Health Index database will be used to link the National Records of Scotland Births and the Scottish Morbidity Record 02. The data will include about 500 000 mother-child pairs. We will investigate population-level changes in maternal behaviour (smoking at antenatal care booking, infant feeding on discharge), pregnancy and birth outcomes (birth weight, preterm birth, Apgar score, stillbirth, neonatal death, pre-eclampsia) and service use (mode of delivery, mode of anaesthesia, neonatal unit admission) during the COVID-19 pandemic using two analytical approaches. First, we will estimate interrupted times series regression models to describe changes in outcomes comparing prepandemic with pandemic periods. Second, we will analyse the effect of COVID-19 mitigation measures on our outcomes in more detail by creating cumulative exposure variables for each mother-child pair using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Thus, estimating a potential dose-response relationship between exposure to mitigation measures and our outcomes of interest as well as assessing if timing of exposure during pregnancy matters. Finally, we will assess inequalities in the effect of cumulative exposure to lockdown measures on outcomes using several axes of inequality: ethnicity/mother's country of birth, area deprivation (Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation), urban-rural classification of residence, number of previous children, maternal social position (National Statistics Socioeconomic Classification) and parental relationship status.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

NHS Scotland Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for Health and Social Care scrutinised and approved the use of these data (1920-0097). Results of this study will be disseminated to the research community, practitioners, policy makers and the wider public.

Is austerity a cause of slower improvements in mortality in high-income countries? A panel analysis

BACKGROUND

The rate of improvement in mortality slowed across many high-income countries after 2010. Following the 2007-08 financial crisis, macroeconomic policy was dominated by austerity as countries attempted to address perceived problems of growing state debt and government budget deficits. This study estimates the impact of austerity on mortality trends for 37 high-income countries between 2000 and 2019.

METHODS

We fitted a suite of fixed-effects panel regression models to mortality data (period life expectancy, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs), age-stratified mortality rates and lifespan variation). Austerity was measured using the Alesina-Ardagna Fiscal Index (AAFI), Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB), real indexed Government Expenditure, and Public Social Spending as a % of GDP. Sensitivity analyses varied the lag times, and confined the panel to economic downturns and to non-oil-dominated economies.

RESULTS

Slower improvements, or deteriorations, in life expectancy and mortality trends were seen in the majority of countries, with the worst trends in England & Wales, Estonia, Iceland, Scotland, Slovenia, and the USA, with generally worse trends for females than males. Austerity was implemented across all countries for at least some time when measured by AAFI and CAPB, and for many countries across all four measures (and particularly after 2010). Austerity adversely impacted life expectancy, ASMR, age-specific mortality and lifespan variation trends when measured with Government Expenditure, Public Social Spending and CAPB, but not with AAFI. However, when the dataset was restricted to periods of economic downturn and in economies not dominated hydrocarbon production, all measures of austerity were found to reduce the rate of mortality improvement.

INTERPRETATION

Stalled mortality trends and austerity are widespread phenomena across high-income countries. Austerity is likely to be a cause of stalled mortality trends. Governments should consider alternative economic policy approaches if these harmful population health impacts are to be avoided.

Impact of the Finnish Maternity Grant on infant mortality rates in the 20th century: a natural experimental study

BACKGROUND

Baby boxes provide goods to new parents and a space for infant sleeping. They were first introduced in Finland, and it has been argued that the policy helped reduce infant mortality. We evaluated the impact of the Finnish Maternity Grant (which includes the Finnish Baby Box) on infant mortality rates (IMRs) at the points of introduction (disadvantaged mothers only) in 1938 and universalisation in 1949.

METHODS

Maternity Grant introduction and universalisation were evaluated as distinct natural experimental events, using interrupted time series analysis. The outcome was IMR per 1000 live births. We analysed national data on all infants born in Finland between 1922 and 1975, estimating step and trend changes in the outcome following the point of intervention. Sensitivity analyses included truncating the pre-intervention period and a double break point model, incorporating terms for both introduction and universalisation.

RESULTS

Maternity grant introduction in 1938 was associated with a step-change increase (β=14.59, 95% CI 4.30 to 24.89) in Finnish IMRs. Maternity grant universalisation in 1949 was associated with a step-change decrease (β=-14.35, 95% CI -20.94 to -7.76) in Finnish IMRs. Sensitivity analyses produced corresponding associations.

CONCLUSIONS

While we observed changes in IMRs associated with Maternity Grant introduction and universalisation, these changes cannot be disentangled from the impact of the Second World War or other relevant policy developments on infant mortality. Consequently, the relationship between the Finnish Baby Box or comparable contemporary interventions and infant mortality remains unclear.

The LoCo (Lockdown Cohort)-effect: Socioeconomic differences in fertility during the pandemic

Background

The economic and social disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and its mitigation measures may have affected fertility unequally across social strata. If a compositional change in maternal socioeconomic characteristics is confirmed, counterintuitive changes in future population health - the LoCo-effect - are likely.

Methods

We analysed data from maternal inpatient discharge records containing births between January 2018 and November 2021 by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintile. We used monthly number of births before November 2020 to estimate expected monthly births after November 2020 and compared against observed births in each SIMD quintile. Further, we estimated associations between monthly average stringency of national mitigation measures (Stringency Index (0-100)) and births 9 to 13 months later using distributed lag models.

Results

Between November 2020 and November 2021, there were 1301 (10.3%) fewer births than expected for the most deprived quintile (Q1; 953 (8.7%) and 375 (4.1%) less in Q2 and Q3). In the two least deprived quintiles, however, fertility remained mostly unchanged. A 10-point increase in monthly average Stringency Index in Q1 was associated with an average cumulative decrease of 8.5 births (95%CI: -14.1; -2.8, p = 0.006) 9 to 13 months later. Conversely, this estimate was a 4.4 increase (95%CI: 1.3; 7.5, p = 0.008) in Q5 and a 5.9 increase (95%CI: 1.4; 10.4, p = 0.013) in Q4.

Conclusions

Apart from their exposure to pandemic and lockdowns, it is likely that, due to compositional changes in births, the observed LoCo started life, on average, more socially advantaged than previous birth cohorts in Scotland. We show a substantial decrease in fertility in the most deprived areas, while fertility remained little changed in the least deprived areas. Increases in the stringency of lockdown measures were associated with a decrease in births in the most deprived but an increase in the least deprived areas 9 to 13 months later.

Key messages

• Between November 2020 and November 2021, there were substantial decreases in births among deprived areas in Scotland while fertility in the least deprived areas remained mostly unchanged.

• For these births, the observed compositional shift in maternal socioeconomic characteristics may lead to changes in current and future health and health needs – the LoCo (Lockdown Cohort)-effect.

Differentials in death count records by databases in Brazil in 2010

OBJECTIVE

To compare the death counts from three sources of information on mortality available in Brazil in 2010, the Mortality Information System (SIM - Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade ), Civil Registration Statistic System (RC - Sistema de Estatísticas de Resgistro Civil ), and the 2010 Demographic Census at various geographical levels, and to confirm the association between municipal socioeconomic characteristics and the source which showed the highest death count.

METHODS

This is a descriptive and comparative study of raw data on deaths in the SIM, RC and 2010 Census databases, the latter held in Brazilian states and municipalities between August 2009 and July 2010. The percentage of municipalities was confirmed by the database showing the highest death count. The association between the source of the highest death count and socioeconomic indicators - the Índice de Privação Brasileiro (IBP - Brazilian Deprivation Index) and Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano Municipal (IHDM - Municipal Human Development Index) - was performed by bivariate choropleth and Moran Local Index of Spatial Association (LISA) cluster maps.

RESULTS

Confirmed that the SIM is the database with the highest number of deaths counted for all Brazilian macroregions, except the North, in which the highest coverage was from the 2010 Census. Based on the indicators proposed, in general, the Census showed a higher coverage of deaths than the SIM and the RC in the most deprived (highest IBP values) and less developed municipalities (lowest IDHM values) in the country.

CONCLUSION

The results highlight regional inequalities in how the databases chosen for this study cover death records, and the importance of maintaining the issue of mortality on the basic census questionnaire.

Bearing the burden of austerity: how do changing mortality rates in the UK compare between men and women?

Background

Mortality rates across the UK stopped improving in the early 2010s, largely attributable to UK Government’s ‘austerity’ policies. Such policies are thought to disproportionately affect women in terms of greater financial impact and loss of services. The aim here was to investigate whether the mortality impact of austerity—in terms of when rates changed and the scale of excess deaths—has also been worse for women.

Methods

All-cause mortality data by sex, age, Great Britain (GB) nation and deprivation quintile were obtained from national agencies. Trends in age-standardised mortality rates were calculated, and segmented regression analyses used to identify break points between 1981 and 2019. Excess deaths were calculated for 2012–2019 based on comparison of observed deaths with numbers predicted by the linear trend for 1981–2011.

Results

Changes in trends were observed for both men and women, especially for those living in the 20% most deprived areas. In those areas, mortality increased between 2010/2012 and 2017/2019 among women but not men. Break points in trends occurred at similar time points. Approximately 335 000 more deaths occurred between 2012 and 2019 than was expected based on previous trends, with the excess greater among men.

Conclusions

It remains unclear whether there are sex differences in UK austerity-related health effects. Nonetheless, this study provides further evidence of adverse trends in the UK and the associated scale of excess deaths. There is a clear need for such policies to be reversed, and for policies to be implemented to protect the most vulnerable in society.

FAIR data pipeline: provenance-driven data management for traceable scientific workflows

Modern epidemiological analyses to understand and combat the spread of disease depend critically on access to, and use of, data. Rapidly evolving data, such as data streams changing during a disease outbreak, are particularly challenging. Data management is further complicated by data being imprecisely identified when used. Public trust in policy decisions resulting from such analyses is easily damaged and is often low, with cynicism arising where claims of 'following the science' are made without accompanying evidence. Tracing the provenance of such decisions back through open software to primary data would clarify this evidence, enhancing the transparency of the decision-making process. Here, we demonstrate a Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) data pipeline. Although developed during the COVID-19 pandemic, it allows easy annotation of any data as they are consumed by analyses, or conversely traces the provenance of scientific outputs back through the analytical or modelling source code to primary data. Such a tool provides a mechanism for the public, and fellow scientists, to better assess scientific evidence by inspecting its provenance, while allowing scientists to support policymakers in openly justifying their decisions. We believe that such tools should be promoted for use across all areas of policy-facing research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Mortality inequalities measured by socioeconomic indicators in Brazil: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

Summarize the literature on the relationship between composite socioeconomic indicators and mortality in different geographical areas of Brazil.

METHODS

This scoping review included articles published between January 1, 2000, and August 31, 2020, retrieved by means of a bibliographic search carried out in the Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, and Lilacs databases. Studies reporting on the association between composite socioeconomic indicators and all-cause, or specific cause of death in any age group in different geographical areas were selected. The review summarized the measures constructed, their associations with the outcomes, and potential study limitations.

RESULTS

Of the 77 full texts that met the inclusion criteria, the study reviewed 24. The area level of composite socioeconomic indicators analyzed comprised municipalities (n = 6), districts (n = 5), census tracts (n = 4), state (n = 2), country (n = 2), and other areas (n = 5). Six studies used composite socioeconomic indicators such as the Human Development Index, Gross Domestic Product, and the Gini Index; the remaining 18 papers created their own socioeconomic measures based on sociodemographic and health indicators. Socioeconomic status was inversely associated with higher rates of all-cause mortality, external cause mortality, suicide, homicide, fetal and infant mortality, respiratory and circulatory diseases, stroke, infectious and parasitic diseases, malnutrition, gastroenteritis, and oropharyngeal cancer. Higher mortality rates due to colorectal cancer, leukemia, a general group of neoplasms, traffic accident, and suicide, in turn, were observed in less deprived areas and/or those with more significant socioeconomic development. Underreporting of death and differences in mortality coverage in Brazilian areas were cited as the main limitation.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies analyzed mortality inequalities in different geographical areas by means of composite socioeconomic indicators, showing that the association directions vary according to the mortality outcome. But studies on all-cause mortality and at the census tract level remain scarce. The results may guide the development of new composite socioeconomic indicators for use in mortality inequality analysis.

Biases arising from using linked administrative data for research: A conceptual framework from registration to analysis

ObjectivesAdministrative data are primarily collected for operational processes and these processes can lead to sources of bias that may not be adequately considered by researchers. We provide a framework to help understand how biases might arise from using linked administrative data, and hopefully aid future study designs. ApproachWe developed the conceptual framework based on the team’s experiences with the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (100MCohort) which contains records of more than 131 million people whose families applied for social assistance between 2001 and 2018, linked to other administrative data sources. We provide examples from the 100MCohort of where and how in the linkage process different forms of bias could arise. We make recommendations on how biases might be addressed using commonly available external data. ResultsThe conceptual framework covers the whole data generating process from people and events occurring in the population through to deriving variables for analysis. The framework comprises three distinct stages: 1) Recording and registration of events in administrative systems such as Brazil’s Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Hospital Information System (SIH); 2) Linkage of different data sources, for example using exact matching via the Social Identification Number (NIS) in Brazil’s CadÚnico database or linkage algorithms; 3) Cleaning and coding data used both for analysis and linkage. The biases arising from linkage can be better understood by applying theory and making additional metadata available. ConclusionMaximising the potential of administrative data for research requires a better understanding of how biases arise. This is best achieved by considering the entire data generating process, and better communication among all those involved in the data collection and linkage processes.

Socio-economic inequalities in rates of amenable mortality in Scotland: Analyses of the fundamental causes using the Scottish Longitudinal Study, 1991-2010

Socio-economic inequalities in amenable mortality rates are increasing across Europe, which is an affront to universal healthcare systems where the numbers of, and inequalities in, amenable deaths should be minimal and declining over time. However, the fundamental causes theory proposes that inequalities in health will be largest across preventable causes, where unequally distributed resources can be used to gain an advantage. Information on individual-level inequalities that may better reflect the fundamental causes remains limited. We used the Scottish Longitudinal Study, with follow-up to 2010 to examine trends in amenable mortality by a range of socioeconomic position measures. Large inequalities were found for all measures of socioeconomic position and were lowest for educational attainment, higher for social class and highest for social connection. To reduce inequalities, amenable mortality needs to be interpreted both as an indicator of healthcare quality and as a reflection of the unequal distribution of socio-economic resources.

Biases arising from linked administrative data for epidemiological research: a conceptual framework from registration to analyses

Linked administrative data offer a rich source of information that can be harnessed to describe patterns of disease, understand their causes and evaluate interventions. However, administrative data are primarily collected for operational reasons such as recording vital events for legal purposes, and planning, provision and monitoring of services. The processes involved in generating and linking administrative datasets may generate sources of bias that are often not adequately considered by researchers. We provide a framework describing these biases, drawing on our experiences of using the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (100MCohort) which contains records of more than 131 million people whose families applied for social assistance between 2001 and 2018. Datasets for epidemiological research were derived by linking the 100MCohort to health-related databases such as the Mortality Information System and the Hospital Information System. Using the framework, we demonstrate how selection and misclassification biases may be introduced in three different stages: registering and recording of people's life events and use of services, linkage across administrative databases, and cleaning and coding of variables from derived datasets. Finally, we suggest eight recommendations which may reduce biases when analysing data from administrative sources.

Differences in ill health and in socioeconomic inequalities in health by ethnic groups: a cross-sectional study using 2011 Scottish census

Objectives: We compare rates of ill health and socioeconomic inequalities in health by ethnic groups in Scotland by age. We focus on ethnic differences in socioeconomic inequalities in health. There is little evidence of how socioeconomic inequalities in health vary by ethnicity, especially in Scotland, where health inequalities are high compared to other European countries.Design: A cross-sectional study using the 2011 Scottish Census (population 5.3 million) was conducted. Directly standardized rates were calculated for two self-rated health outcomes (poor general health and limiting long-term illness) separately by ethnicity, age and small-area deprivation. Slope and relative indices of inequality were calculated to measure socioeconomic inequalities in health.Results: The results show that the White Scottish population tend to have worse health and higher socioeconomic inequalities in health than many other ethnic groups, while White Polish and Chinese people tend to have better health and low socioeconomic inequalities in health. These results are more salient for ages 30-44. The Pakistani population has high rates of poor health similar to the White Scottish for ages 15-44, but at ages 45 and above Pakistani people have the highest rates of poor self-rated health. Compared to other ethnicities, Pakistani people are also more likely to experience poor health in the least deprived areas, particularly at ages 45 and above.Conclusions: There are statistically significant and substantial differences in poor self-rated health and in socioeconomic inequalities in health between ethnicities. Rates of ill health vary between ethnic groups at any age. The better health of the younger minority population should not be taken as evidence of better health outcomes in later life. Since socioeconomic gradients in health vary by ethnicity, policy interventions for health improvement in Scotland that focus only on deprived areas may inadvertently exclude minority populations.

Cancer mortality 1981-2016 and contribution of specific cancers to current socioeconomic inequalities in all cancer mortality: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

In many high-income countries cancer mortality rates have declined, however, socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have widened over time with those in the most deprived areas bearing the greatest burden. Less is known about the contribution of specific cancers to inequalities in total cancer mortality.

METHODS

Using high-quality routinely collected population and mortality records we examine long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in Scotland by age group, sex, and area deprivation. We use the decomposed slope and relative indices of inequality to identify the specific cancers that contribute most to absolute and relative inequalities, respectively, in total cancer mortality.

RESULTS

Cancer mortality rates fell by 24 % for males and 10 % for females over the last 35 years; declining across all age groups except females aged 75+ where rates rose by 14 %. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer death. Mortality rates of lung cancer have more than halved for males since 1981, while rates among females have almost doubled over the same period.

CONCLUSION

Current relative inequalities in total cancer mortality are dominated by inequalities in lung cancer mortality, but with contributions from other cancer sites including liver, and head and neck (males); and breast (females), stomach and cervical (younger females). An understanding of which cancer sites contribute most to inequalities in total cancer mortality is crucial for improving cancer health and care, and for reducing preventable cancer deaths.

Prenatal Vitamins and the Risk of Offspring Autism Spectrum Disorder: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Prenatal nutrition is associated with offspring autism spectrum disorder (herein referred to as autism), yet, it remains unknown if the association is causal. Triangulation may improve causal inference by integrating the results of conventional multivariate regression with several alternative approaches that have unrelated sources of bias. We systematically reviewed the literature on the relationship between prenatal multivitamin supplements and offspring autism, and evidence for the causal approaches applied. Six databases were searched up to 8 June 2020, by which time we had screened 1309 titles/abstracts, and retained 12 articles. Quality assessment was guided using Newcastle-Ottawa in individual studies, and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) for the body of evidence. The effect estimates from multivariate regression were meta-analysed in a random effects model and causal approaches were narratively synthesised. The meta-analysis of prenatal multivitamin supplements involved 904,947 children (8159 cases), and in the overall analysis showed no robust association with offspring autism; however, a reduced risk was observed in the subgroup of high-quality observational studies (RR 0.77, 95% CI (0.62, 0.96), I2 = 62.4%), early pregnancy (RR 0.76, 95% CI (0.58; 0.99), I2 = 79.8%) and prospective studies (RR 0.69, 95% CI (0.48, 1.00), I2 = 95.9%). The quality of evidence was very low, and triangulation was of limited utility because alternative methods were used infrequently and often not robustly applied.

Social inequalities and hospital admission for unintentional injury in young children in Scotland: A nationwide linked cohort study

Background

Unintentional injury is a leading cause of death/disability, with more disadvantaged children at greater risk. Understanding how inequalities vary by injury type, age, severity, and place of injury, can inform prevention.

Methods

For all Scotland-born children 2009-2013 (n=195,184), hospital admissions for unintentional injury (HAUI) were linked to socioeconomic circumstances (SECs) at birth: area deprivation via the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), mother's occupational social class, parents’ relationship status. HAUI was examined from birth-five, and during infancy. We examined HAUI frequency, severity, injury type, and injury location (home vs. elsewhere). We estimated relative inequalities using the relative indices of inequality (RII, 95% CIs), before and after adjusting for demographics and other non-mediating SECs.

Findings

More disadvantaged children were at greater risk of any HAUI from birth-five, RII: 1•59(1•49-1•70), 1•74(1•62-1•86), 1•97(1•84-2•12) for area deprivation, maternal occupational social class, and relationship status respectively. These attenuated after adjustment (1•15 [1•06-1•24], 1.22 [1•12-1•33], 1.32 [1•21-1•44]). Inequalities were greater for severe (vs. non-severe), multiple (vs. one-off) and home (vs. other location) injuries. Similar patterns were seen in infancy, excluding SIMD-inequalities in falls, where infants living in more disadvantaged neighbourhoods were at lower risk (0•79 [0•62-1•00]). After adjustment, reverse SIMD-gradients were also observed for all injuries and poisonings.

Interpretation

Children living in more disadvantaged households are more likely to be injured across multiple dimensions of HAUI in Scotland. Upstream interventions which tackle family-level disadvantage may be most effective at reducing childhood HAUI.

Funding

Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office.

Unequal impact of the COVID-19 crisis on minority ethnic groups: a framework for understanding and addressing inequalities

Minority ethnic groups have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. While the exact reasons for this remain unclear, they are likely due to a complex interplay of factors rather than a single cause. Reducing these inequalities requires a greater understanding of the causes. Research to date, however, has been hampered by a lack of theoretical understanding of the meaning of ‘ethnicity’ (or race) and the potential pathways leading to inequalities. In particular, quantitative analyses have often adjusted away the pathways through which inequalities actually arise (ie, mediators for the effect of interest), leading to the effects of social processes, and particularly structural racism, becoming hidden. In this paper, we describe a framework for understanding the pathways that have generated ethnic (and racial) inequalities in COVID-19. We suggest that differences in health outcomes due to the pandemic could arise through six pathways: (1) differential exposure to the virus; (2) differential vulnerability to infection/disease; (3) differential health consequences of the disease; (4) differential social consequences of the disease; (5) differential effectiveness of pandemic control measures and (6) differential adverse consequences of control measures. Current research provides only a partial understanding of some of these pathways. Future research and action will require a clearer understanding of the multiple dimensions of ethnicity and an appreciation of the complex interplay of social and biological pathways through which ethnic inequalities arise. Our framework highlights the gaps in the current evidence and pathways that need further investigation in research that aims to address these inequalities.

Inequalities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality across the life course by wealth and income in Sweden: a register-based cohort study

Background

Wealth inequalities are increasing in many countries, but their relationship to health is little studied. We investigated the association between individual wealth and mortality across the adult life course in Sweden.

Methods

We studied the Swedish adult population using national registers. The amount of wealth tax paid in 1990 was the main exposure of interest and the cohort was followed up for 18 years. Relative indices of inequality (RII) summarize health inequalities across a population and were calculated for all-cause and cause-specific mortality for six different age groups, stratified by sex, using Poisson regression. Mortality inequalities by wealth were contrasted with those assessed by individual and household income. Attenuation by four other measures of socio-economic position and other covariates was investigated.

Results

Large inequalities in mortality by wealth were observed and their association with mortality remained more stable across the adult life course than inequalities by income-based measures. Men experienced greater inequalities across all ages (e.g. the RII for wealth was 2.58 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.54–2.63) in men aged 55–64 years compared with 2.29 (95% CI 2.24–2.34) for women aged 55–64 years), except among the over 85s. Adjustment for covariates, including four other measures of socio-economic position, led to only modest reductions in the association between wealth and mortality.

Conclusions

Wealth is strongly associated with mortality throughout the adult life course, including early adulthood. Income redistribution may be insufficient to narrow health inequalities—addressing the increasingly unequal distribution of wealth in high-income countries should be considered.

Deaths of despair: cause-specific mortality and socioeconomic inequalities in cause-specific mortality among young men in Scotland

Background

Increasing mortality among men from drugs, alcohol and suicides is a growing public health concern in many countries. Collectively known as “deaths of despair”, they are seen to stem from unprecedented economic pressures and a breakdown in social support structures.

Methods

We use high-quality population wide Scottish data to calculate directly age-standardized mortality rates for men aged 15–44 between 1980 and 2018 for 15 leading causes of mortality. Absolute and relative inequalities in mortality by cause are calculated using small-area deprivation and the slope and relative indices of inequality (SII and RII_L) for the years 2001–2018.

Results

Since 1980 there have been only small reductions in mortality among men aged 15–44 in Scotland. In that period drug-related deaths have increased from 1.2 (95% CI 0.7–1.4) to 44.9 (95% CI 42.5–47.4) deaths per 100,000 and are now the leading cause of mortality. Between 2001 and 2018 there have been small reductions in absolute but not in relative inequalities in all-cause mortality. However, absolute inequalities in mortality from drugs have doubled from SII = 66.6 (95% CI 61.5–70.9) in 2001–2003 to SII = 120.0 (95% CI 113.3–126.8) in 2016–2018. Drugs are the main contributor to inequalities in mortality, and together with alcohol harm and suicides make up 65% of absolute inequalities in mortality.

Conclusions

Contrary to the substantial reductions in mortality across all ages in the past decades, deaths among young men are increasing from preventable causes. Attempts to reduce external causes of mortality have focused on a single cause of death and not been effective in reducing mortality or inequalities in mortality from external causes in the long-run. To reduce deaths of despair, action should be taken to address social determinants of health and reduce socioeconomic inequalities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-020-01329-7.

Theory driven analysis of social class and health outcomes using UK nationally representative longitudinal data

BACKGROUND

Social class is frequently used as a means of ranking the population to expose inequalities in health, but less often as a means of understanding the social processes of causation. We explored how effectively different social class mechanisms could be measured by longitudinal cohort data and whether those measures were able to explain health outcomes.

METHODS

Using a theoretically informed approach, we sought to map variables within the National Child Development Study (NCDS) to five different social class mechanisms: social background and early life circumstances; habitus and distinction; exploitation and domination; location within market relations; and power relations. Associations between the SF-36 physical, emotional and general health outcomes at age 50 years and the social class measures within NCDS were then assessed through separate multiple linear regression models. R2 values were used to quantify the proportion of variance in outcomes explained by the independent variables.

RESULTS

We were able to map the NCDS variables to the each of the social class mechanisms except 'Power relations'. However, the success of the mapping varied across mechanisms. Furthermore, although relevant associations between exposures and outcomes were observed, the mapped NCDS variables explained little of the variation in health outcomes: for example, for physical functioning, the R2 values ranged from 0.04 to 0.10 across the four mechanisms we could map.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has demonstrated both the potential and the limitations of available cohort studies in measuring aspects of social class theory. The relatively small amount of variation explained in the outcome variables in this study suggests that these are imperfect measures of the different social class mechanisms. However, the study lays an important foundation for further research to understand the complex interactions, at various life stages, between different aspects of social class and subsequent health outcomes.

All-cause and cause-specific mortality in Scotland 1981-2011 by age, sex and deprivation: a population-based study

Background

Average life expectancy has stopped increasing for many countries. This has been attributed to causes such as influenza, austerity policies and deaths of despair (drugs, alcohol and suicide). Less is known on the inequality of life expectancy over time using reliable, whole population, data. This work examines all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates in Scotland to assess the patterning of relative and absolute inequalities across three decades.

Methods

Using routinely collected Scottish mortality and population records we calculate directly age-standardized mortality rates by age group, sex and deprivation fifths for all-cause and cause-specific deaths around each census 1981–2011.

Results

All-cause mortality rates in the most deprived areas in 2011 (472 per 100 000 population) remained higher than in the least deprived in 1981 (422 per 100 000 population). For those aged 0–64, deaths from circulatory causes more than halved between 1981 and 2011 and cancer mortality decreased by a third (with greater relative declines in the least deprived areas). Over the same period, alcohol- and drug-related causes and male suicide increased (with greater absolute and relative increases in more deprived areas). There was also a significant increase in deaths from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease for those aged 75+.

Conclusions

Despite reductions in mortality, relative (but not absolute) inequalities widened between 1981 and 2011 for all-cause mortality and for several causes of death. Reducing relative inequalities in Scotland requires faster mortality declines in deprived areas while countering increases in mortality from causes such as drug- and alcohol-related harm and male suicide.

A methodology for small area prevalence estimation based on survey data

BACKGROUND

Brazil conducts many health surveys to provide estimates by national level, macro-regions, states, metropolitan regions and capitals. However, estimates for smaller areas are lacking due to their high cost. The Health Vulnerability Index (in Portuguese, Índice de Vulnerabilidade em Saúde, IVS) is a measure that combines socioeconomic and environmental variables in the same indicator and allows for the analysis of the characteristics of population groups residing in census tracts, grouping them into four health risk areas (low, medium, high and very high risk) in addition to showing inequalities in the epidemiological profile of different social groups. This index was developed by the Municipal Health Secretariat of Belo Horizonte to guide health planning.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study is to produce a methodology for obtaining reliable estimates for tobacco smoking in small areas for which the IVS was not designed.

METHODS

The Vigitel dataset from 2006 to 2013 was used to obtain estimates of the prevalence of smokers based on the IVS employing small area estimation methods that use data from a larger domain to obtain estimates in smaller areas. For indirect estimates, the covariates included were sanitation, housing, education, income, and social and health factors. Post-stratification weights were used according to the IVS based on the population of the 2010 census.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2009, 16.2% (95% CI: 13.6-14.8%) of the adult population in Belo Horizonte were smokers, and 14.8% (95% CI: 14.0-15.6%) were smokers between 2010 and 2013. The very high-risk population maintained a high prevalence over the same period of 21.1% (95% CI: 17.1-25.0%) between 2006 and 2009 and 20.8% (95% CI: 17.0-24.6%) between 2010 and 2013, while in the low-risk group, the prevalence in the same period fell from 14.9% (95% CI: 13.7-16.2%) to 11.8% (95% CI, 10.6-13.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study identified differences in the profile of smokers by the IVS in the city of Belo Horizonte. While the smoking prevalence declined in richer areas, it remained high in poor areas. This methodology can be used to produce reliable estimates for subgroups with greater vulnerability in small areas and thus subsidize the formulation, monitoring and evaluation of public health policies and programmes aimed at smoking.

Women and evaluation of inequalities in the distribution of risk factors for Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCD), Vigitel 2016-2017

OBJECTIVE

To compare the distribution of chronic non-communicable diseases (CNCD) indicators among adult female beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) in Brazilian capitals.

METHODS

Analysis of Vigitel telephone survey data in 2016 and 2017. Gross and adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) and their respective confidence intervals were estimated using Poisson Regression model.

RESULTS

Women with BF have lower schooling, are young people, live more frequently in the Northeast and North of the country. Higher prevalence of risk factors were found in woman receiving BF. The adjusted PR of the BF women were: smokers (PR = 1.98), overweight (PR = 1.21), obesity (PR = 1.63), fruits and vegetables (PR = 0.63), consumption of soft drinks (PR = 1.68), bean consumption (PR = 1.25), physical activity at leisure (PR = 0.65), physical activity at home (PR = 1.35), time watching TV (PR = 1.37), self-assessment of poor health status (PR =2.04), mammography (PR = 0.86), Pap smears (PR = 0.91), hypertension (PR = 1.46) and diabetes (PR = 1,66). When women were compared among strata of the same schooling, these differences were reduced.

CONCLUSION

Worst indicators among women receiving BF reflect social inequalities inherent in this most vulnerable group. The study also shows that BF is being targeted at the most vulnerable women.

The long-term health effects of attending a selective school: a natural experiment

BACKGROUND

Education is widely associated with better physical and mental health, but isolating its causal effect is difficult because education is linked with many socioeconomic advantages. One way to isolate education's effect is to consider environments where similar students are assigned to different educational experiences based on objective criteria. Here we measure the health effects of assignment to selective schooling based on test score, a widely debated educational policy.

METHODS

In 1960s Britain, children were assigned to secondary schools via a test taken at age 11. We used regression discontinuity analysis to measure health differences in 5039 people who were separated into selective and non-selective schools this way. We measured selective schooling's effect on six outcomes: mid-life self-reports of health, mental health, and life limitation due to health, as well as chronic disease burden derived from hospital records in mid-life and later life, and the likelihood of dying prematurely. The analysis plan was accepted as a registered report while we were blind to the health outcome data.

RESULTS

Effect estimates for selective schooling were as follows: self-reported health, 0.1 worse on a 4-point scale (95%CI - 0.2 to 0); mental health, 0.2 worse on a 16-point scale (- 0.5 to 0.1); likelihood of life limitation due to health, 5 percentage points higher (- 1 to 10); mid-life chronic disease diagnoses, 3 fewer/100 people (- 9 to + 4); late-life chronic disease diagnoses, 9 more/100 people (- 3 to + 20); and risk of dying before age 60, no difference (- 2 to 3 percentage points). Extensive sensitivity analyses gave estimates consistent with these results. In summary, effects ranged from 0.10-0.15 standard deviations worse for self-reported health, and from 0.02 standard deviations better to 0.07 worse for records-derived health. However, they were too imprecise to allow the conclusion that selective schooling was detrimental.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that people who attended selective secondary school had more advantaged economic backgrounds, higher IQs, higher likelihood of getting a university degree, and better health. However, we did not find that selective schooling itself improved health. This lack of a positive influence of selective secondary schooling on health was consistent despite varying a wide range of model assumptions.

Socio-economic inequalities in timing of childhood immunizations in Scotland

In Scotland, like many other European countries, childhood immunization coverage is generally high, often exceeding levels typically required to achieve herd immunity (95%): uptake of the primary vaccines (excluding rotavirus) is ∼96% (at 12month(m)), with the 1st dose of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) at 97% (by 5 years). However, the recommended age to receive these vaccines is 2-4m and 12-13m respectively. Delays beyond these ages may indicate vaccine hesitancy or barriers to access and can increase the likelihood of disease outbreaks, especially if clustered among certain geographical or social groups. We used quantile regression to examine the age by which 95% coverage was met in different groups.

We analyzed data from the Scottish Immunisation and Recall System, for all children born in Scotland 2010-12 (n∼200,000), estimating proportions immunized ‘on time’ with the primary (by age 5m) and MMR (by 14m) vaccines. Next we used quantile regression (with 95% cut-points) to calculate the age by which 95% coverage was reached among this cohort of children, overall and according to neighbourhood deprivation (Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation[SIMD] deciles).

As in national reports, uptake of the primaries (at 12m) and MMR (at 5y) was >95%, with 91% and 89% immunized ‘on time’ (as defined above). Nationally, primary vaccines uptake reached 95% by age 7m. This varied by SIMD, from 6m in the least disadvantaged decile, to 9m in the most disadvantaged decile (difference 3m, CI: 2.7-3.3). Uptake of MMR reached 95% a year later than recommended (26m), with no discernible pattern by SIMD.

In Scotland, the age by which immunization levels meet those typically required to achieve herd immunity may be suboptimal, particularly for MMR and (for primary vaccines) disadvantaged neighborhoods. This same approach might be used in other nations with high coverage to identify population groups that may be experiencing barriers to access and inform local intervention content

Indicators of chronic noncommunicable diseases in women of reproductive age that are beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of Bolsa Família

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prevalence of noncommunicable disease (NCD) indicators, including laboratory tests, in the population of Brazilian women of reproductive age, according to whether or not they receive the Bolsa Família (BF) benefit.

METHODS

A total of 3,131 women aged 18 to 49 years old who participated in the National Health Survey (Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde ) laboratory examination sub-sample were considered. We compared indicators among women of reproductive age (18 to 49 years old) who reported receiving BF or not, and calculated prevalence and confidence intervals, using Pearson's χ2.

RESULTS

Women of reproductive age who were beneficiaries of BF had worse health outcomes, such as a greater occurrence of being overweight (33.5%) and obese (26.9%) (p < 0.001), having hypertension (13.4% versus 4.4%, p < 0.001), used more tobacco (11.2% versus 8.2%, p = 0.029), and perceived their health as worse (6.2% versus 2.4%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Several NCD indicators were worse among women of childbearing age who were beneficiaries of BF. It should be emphasized that this is not a causal relationship, with BF being a marker of inequalities among women. The benefit has been directed to the population with greater health needs, and seeks to reduce inequities.

Pathways to inequalities in child health

From birth, children living in disadvantaged socioeconomic circumstances (SECs) suffer from worse health than their more advantaged peers. The pathways through which SECs influence children's health are complex and inter-related, but in general are driven by differences in the distribution of power and resources that determine the economic, material and psychosocial conditions in which children grow up. A better understanding of why children from more disadvantaged backgrounds have worse health and how interventions work, for whom and in what contexts, will help to reduce these unfair differences. Macro-level change is also required, including the reduction of child poverty through improved social security systems and employment opportunities, and continued investment in high-quality and accessible services (eg, childcare, key workers, children's centres and healthy school environments). Child health professionals can play a crucial role by being mindful of the social determinants of health in their daily practice, and through advocating for more equitable and child-focussed resource allocation.

Assessing the potential utility of commercial 'big data' for health research: Enhancing small-area deprivation measures with Experian™ Mosaic groups

In contrast to area-based deprivation measures, commercial datasets remain infrequently used in health research and policy. Experian collates numerous commercial and administrative data sources to produce Mosaic groups which stratify households into 15 groups for marketing purposes. We assessed the potential utility of Mosaic groups for health research purposes by investigating their relationships with Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) for the British population. Mosaic groups showed significant associations with IMD quintiles. Correspondence Analysis revealed variations in patterns of association, with Mosaic groups either showing increasing, decreasing, or some mixed trends with deprivation quintiles. These results suggest that Experian's Mosaics additionally measure other aspects of socioeconomic circumstances to those captured by deprivation measures. These commercial data may provide new insights into the social determinants of health at a small area level.

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Mosaic groups showed a significant association with IMD quintiles.

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Trend patterns varied between different Mosaic groups across IMD quintiles.

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Mosaic groups have potential to enhance routinely used socioeconomic measures in research.

Theorising social class and its application to the study of health inequalities

The literature on health inequalities often uses measures of socio-economic position pragmatically to rank the population to describe inequalities in health rather than to understand social and economic relationships between groups. Theoretical considerations about the meaning of different measures, the social processes they describe, and how these might link to health are often limited. This paper builds upon Wright's synthesis of social class theories to propose a new integrated model for understanding social class as applied to health. This model incorporates several social class mechanisms: social background and early years' circumstances; Bourdieu's habitus and distinction; social closure and opportunity hoarding; Marxist conflict over production (domination and exploitation); and Weberian conflict over distribution. The importance of discrimination and prejudice in determining the opportunities for groups is also explicitly recognised, as is the relationship with health behaviours. In linking the different social class processes we have created an integrated theory of how and why social class causes inequalities in health. Further work is required to test this approach, to promote greater understanding of researchers of the social processes underlying different measures, and to understand how better and more comprehensive data on the range of social class processes these might be collected in the future.

More miles on the clock: Neighbourhood stressors are associated with telomere length in a longitudinal study

Background

There is a substantial gap in health and longevity between more affluent and more deprived areas, and more knowledge of the determinants of this health divide is required. Experience of the local residential environment is important for health although few studies have examined this in relation to biological markers of age such as telomere length. We sought to examine if residents’ perceptions of neighbourhood stressors over time were associated with telomere length in a community study.

Methodology/Principal findings

In a prospective cohort study of 2186 adults in the West of Scotland, we measured neighbourhood stressors at three time points over a 12-year period and telomere length at the end of the study. Using linear regression models, we found that a higher accumulation of neighbourhood stressors over time was associated with shorter telomere length, even after taking cohort, social class, health behaviours (smoking status, diet, physical activity), BMI and depression into account among females only (Beta = 0.007; 95%CI [0.001, 0.012]; P<0.014).

Conclusions/Significance

Neighborhood environments are potentially modifiable, and future efforts directed towards improving deleterious local environments may be useful to lessen telomere attrition.

Effects of restrictions to Income Support on health of lone mothers in the UK: a natural experiment study

BACKGROUND

In the UK, lone parents must seek work as a condition of receiving welfare benefits once their youngest child reaches a certain age. Since 2008, the lower age limit at which these Lone Parent Obligations (LPO) apply has been reduced in steps. We used data from a nationally representative, longitudinal, household panel study to analyse the health effects of increased welfare conditionality under LPO.

METHODS

From the Understanding Society survey, we used data for lone mothers who were newly exposed to LPO when the age cutoff was reduced from 7 to 5 years in 2012 (intervention group 1) and from 10 to 7 years in 2010 (intervention group 2), as well as lone mothers who remained unexposed (control group 1) or continuously exposed (control group 2) at those times. We did difference-in-difference analyses that controlled for differences in the fixed characteristics of participants in the intervention and control groups to estimate the effect of exposure to conditionality on the health of lone mothers. Our primary outcome was the difference in change over time between the intervention and control groups in scores on the Mental Component Summary (MCS) of the 12-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12).

FINDINGS

The mental health of lone mothers declined in the intervention groups compared with the control groups. For intervention group 1, scores on the MCS decreased by 1·39 (95% CI -1·29 to 4·08) compared with control group 1 and by 2·29 (0·00 to 4·57) compared with control group 2. For intervention group 2, MCS scores decreased by 2·45 (-0·57 to 5·48) compared with control group 1 and by 1·28 (-1·45 to 4·00) compared with control group 2. When pooling the two intervention groups, scores on the MCS decreased by 2·13 (0·10 to 4·17) compared with control group 1 and 2·21 (0·30 to 4·13) compared with control group 2.

INTERPRETATION

Stringent conditions for receiving welfare benefits are increasingly common in high-income countries. Our results suggest that requiring lone parents with school-age children toseek work as a condition of receiving welfare benefits adversely affects their mental health.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office, and National Health Service Research Scotland.

A framework for conducting economic evaluations alongside natural experiments

Internationally, policy makers are increasingly focussed on reducing the detrimental consequences and rising costs associated with unhealthy diets, inactivity, smoking, alcohol and other risk factors on the health of their populations. This has led to an increase in the demand for evidence-based, cost-effective Population Health Interventions (PHIs) to reverse this trend. Given that research designs such as randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are often not suited to the evaluation of PHIs, Natural Experiments (NEs) are now frequently being used as a design to evaluate such complex, preventive PHIs. However, current guidance for economic evaluation focusses on RCT designs and therefore does not address the specific challenges of NE designs. Using such guidance can lead to sub-optimal design, data collection and analysis for NEs, leading to bias in the estimated effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the PHI. As a consequence, there is a growing recognition of the need to identify a robust methodological framework for the design and conducting of economic evaluations alongside such NEs. This paper outlines the challenges inherent to the design and conduct of economic evaluations of PHIs alongside NEs, providing a comprehensive framework and outlining a research agenda in this area.

Indicators of chronic noncommunicable diseases in women of reproductive age that are beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of Bolsa Família

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prevalence of noncommunicable disease (NCD) indicators, including laboratory tests, in the population of Brazilian women of reproductive age, according to whether or not they receive the Bolsa Família (BF) benefit.

METHODS

A total of 3,131 women aged 18 to 49 years old who participated in the National Health Survey (Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde ) laboratory examination sub-sample were considered. We compared indicators among women of reproductive age (18 to 49 years old) who reported receiving BF or not, and calculated prevalence and confidence intervals, using Pearson's χ2.

RESULTS

Women of reproductive age who were beneficiaries of BF had worse health outcomes, such as a greater occurrence of being overweight (33.5%) and obese (26.9%) (p < 0.001), having hypertension (13.4% versus 4.4%, p < 0.001), used more tobacco (11.2% versus 8.2%, p = 0.029), and perceived their health as worse (6.2% versus 2.4%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Several NCD indicators were worse among women of childbearing age who were beneficiaries of BF. It should be emphasized that this is not a causal relationship, with BF being a marker of inequalities among women. The benefit has been directed to the population with greater health needs, and seeks to reduce inequities.

Area deprivation measures used in Brazil: a scoping review

OBJECTIVE

To describe and assess currently used area-based measures of deprivation in Brazil for health research, to the purpose of informing the development of a future small area deprivation index.

METHODS

We searched five electronic databases and seven websites of Brazilian research institutions and governmental agencies. Inclusion criteria were: studies proposing measures of deprivation for small areas (i.e., finer geography than country-level) in Brazil, published in English, Portuguese or Spanish. After data-extraction, results were tabulated according to the area level the deprivation measure was created for and to the dimensions of deprivation or poverty included in the measures. A narrative synthesis approach was used to summarize the measures available, highlighting their utility for public health research.

RESULTS

A total of 7,199 records were retrieved, 126 full-text articles were assessed after inclusion criteria and a final list of 30 articles was selected. No small-area deprivation measures that have been applied to the whole of Brazil were found. Existing measures were mainly used to study infectious and parasitic diseases. Few studies used the measures to assess inequalities in mortality and no studies used the deprivation measure to evaluate the impact of social programs.

CONCLUSIONS

No up-to-date small area-based deprivation measure in Brazil covers the whole country. There is a need to develop such an index for Brazil to measure and monitor inequalities in health and mortality, particularly to assess progress in Brazil against the Sustainable Development Goal targets for different health outcomes, showing progress by socioeconomic groups.