1
|
Naghavi M, Ong KL, Aali A, Ababneh HS, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahifar MA, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abebe SS, Abedi A, Abegaz KH, Abhilash ES, Abidi H, Abiodun O, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abolmaali M, Abouzid M, Aboye GB, Abreu LG, Abrha WA, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Accrombessi MMK, Adal TG, Adamu AA, Addo IY, Addolorato G, Adebiyi AO, Adekanmbi V, Adepoju AV, Adetunji CO, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adeyinka DA, Adeyomoye OI, Admass BAA, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afolabi AA, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agampodi SB, Agasthi P, Aggarwal M, Aghamiri S, Agide FD, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Akara EM, Akbarialiabad H, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemiju T, Akkaif MA, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, Alalalmeh SO, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam M, Alam N, Al-amer RM, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Al-Azzam S, Albakri A, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Aldawsari KA, Aldhaleei WA, Aldridge RW, Alema HB, Alemayohu MA, Alemi S, Alemu YM, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhabib KF, Alhalaiqa FAN, Al-Hanawi MK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali S, Ali SSS, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Alikhani R, Alimohamadi Y, Aliyi AA, Aljasir MAM, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri SAA, Almazan JU, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almidani L, Almidani O, Alomari MA, Al-Omari B, Alonso J, Alqahtani JS, Alqalyoobi S, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Sabah SK, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Aluh DO, Alvis-Guzman N, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Amani R, Amare AT, Amegbor PM, Ameyaw EK, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson DB, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angus C, Anil A, Anil S, Anoushiravani A, Ansari H, Ansariadi A, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anvari S, Anwar S, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyasodor AE, Aqeel M, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Aremu A, Aremu O, Ariffin H, Arkew M, Armocida B, Arndt MB, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Asaad M, Asadi-Lari M, Asgedom AA, Asghariahmadabad M, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf M, Aslani A, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari SS, Atinafu BTT, Atlaw HW, Atorkey P, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avan A, Awedew AF, Aweke AM, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayatollahi H, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Azzam AY, B DB, Babu AS, Badar M, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadorikhalili S, Bahmanziari N, Bai R, Baig AA, Baker JL, Bako AT, Bakshi RK, Balakrishnan S, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik PC, Bansal H, Bansal K, Barbic F, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barrero LH, Barrow A, Barteit S, Barua L, Basharat Z, Bashiri A, Basiru A, Baskaran P, Basnyat B, Bassat Q, Basso JD, Basting AVL, Basu S, Batra K, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Beaney T, Bedi N, Beghi M, Behboudi E, Behera P, Behnoush AH, Behzadifar M, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Béjot Y, Belay SA, Belete CM, Bell ML, Bello MB, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bender RG, Bensenor IM, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Berhie AY, Berice BN, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene KA, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhandari D, Bhangdia K, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj PV, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bishai JD, Bisignano C, Bisulli F, Biswas A, Biswas B, Bitaraf S, Bitew BD, Bitra VR, Bjørge T, Boachie MK, Boampong MS, Bobirca AV, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bogale KA, Bohlouli S, Bolarinwa OA, Boloor A, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora K, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Borzutzky A, Bouaoud S, Boustany A, Boxe C, Boyko EJ, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brant LC, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Brazo-Sayavera J, Breitborde NJK, Breitner S, Brenner H, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton G, Brown J, Brugha T, Bulamu NB, Bulto LN, Buonsenso D, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Cao Y, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carr S, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carugno A, Carvalheiro CG, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Cederroth CR, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Cevik M, Chadwick J, Chahine Y, Chakraborty C, Chakraborty PA, Chan JSK, Chan RNC, Chandika RM, Chandrasekar EK, Chang CK, Chang JC, Chanie GS, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Chaturvedi P, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou V, Chaurasia A, Chen AW, Chen AT, Chen CS, Chen H, Chen MX, Chen S, Cheng CY, Cheng ETW, Cherbuin N, Cheru WA, Chien JH, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Chitheer A, Cho WCS, Chong B, Chopra H, Choudhari SG, Chowdhury R, Christopher DJ, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung E, Chung E, Chung SC, Chutiyami M, Cindi Z, Cioffi I, Claassens MM, Claro RM, Coberly K, Cogen RM, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Cortese S, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Costanzo S, Cousin E, Couto RAS, Cowden RG, Cramer KM, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Cuadra-Hernández SM, Culbreth GT, Cullen P, Cunningham M, Curado MP, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai S, Dai X, Dai Z, Dalli LL, Damiani G, Darega Gela J, Das JK, Das S, Das S, Dascalu AM, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dastiridou A, Davey G, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, Davletov K, De Leo D, de Luca K, Debele AT, Debopadhaya S, Degenhardt L, Dehghan A, Deitesfeld L, Del Bo' C, Delgado-Enciso I, Demessa BH, Demetriades AK, Deng K, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deravi N, Dereje N, Dervenis N, Dervišević E, Des Jarlais DC, Desai HD, Desai R, Devanbu VGC, Dewan SMR, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhimal M, Dhingra S, Dhulipala VR, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Ding H, Dinis-Oliveira RJ, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Do THP, do Prado CB, Doaei S, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Dohare S, Dokova KG, Dolecek C, Dominguez RMV, Dong W, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Dorostkar F, Dorsey ER, dos Santos WM, Doshi R, Doshmangir L, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Dsouza V, Du M, Dube J, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, E'mar AR, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Echieh CP, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Edvardsson K, Efendi D, Efendi F, Effendi DE, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Sayed I, Elbarazi I, Elema TB, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, Elgendy IY, ElGohary GMT, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Elilo LT, Elmeligy OAA, Elmonem MA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emeto TI, Engelbert Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Esezobor CI, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Espinosa-Montero J, Esubalew H, Etaee F, Fabin N, Fadaka AO, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahim A, Fahimi S, Fakhri-Demeshghieh A, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faris PS, Faro A, Fasanmi AO, Fatehizadeh A, Fattahi H, Fauk NK, Fazeli P, Feigin VL, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferrante D, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Feyisa BR, Filip I, Fischer F, Flavel J, Flood D, Florin BT, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Foroutan B, Foroutan M, Forthun I, Fortuna D, Foschi M, Fowobaje KR, Francis KL, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Friedman J, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fux B, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaidhane AM, Gaihre S, Gakidou E, Galali Y, Galles NC, Gallus S, Ganbat M, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Ganiyani MA, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Garg J, Garg N, Gautam RK, Gbadamosi SO, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremeskel TG, Georgescu SR, Getachew T, Gething PW, Getie M, Ghadiri K, Ghahramani S, Ghailan KY, Ghasemi MR, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghashghaee A, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Ghimire A, Ghoba S, Gholamalizadeh M, Gholamian A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Gholizadeh N, Ghorbani M, Ghorbani Vajargah P, Ghoshal AG, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Gnedovskaya EV, Göbölös L, Godinho MA, Goel A, Golchin A, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gomes NGM, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goudarzi H, Goulart AC, Goulart BNG, Goyal A, Grada A, Graham SM, Grivna M, Grosso G, Guan SY, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Gudeta MD, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Guimarães RA, Gulati S, Gunawardane DA, Gunturu S, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta MK, Gupta M, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Gurmessa L, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Haddadi R, Hadei M, Hadi NR, Haep N, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Hall BJ, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Hamilton EB, Han C, Han Q, Hanif A, Hanifi N, Hankey GJ, Hanna F, Hannan MA, Haque MN, Harapan H, Hargono A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasan MT, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hashi A, Hasnain MS, Hassan I, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, He J, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Helfer B, Hendrie D, Herrera-Serna BY, Herteliu C, Hesami H, Hezam K, Hill CL, Hiraike Y, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain MM, Hossain S, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hosseinzadeh Adli A, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsieh VCR, Hsu RL, Hu C, Huang J, Hultström M, Humayun A, Hundie TG, Hussain J, Hussain MA, Hussein NR, Hussien FM, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Ibrahim KS, Iftikhar PM, Ijo D, Ikiroma AI, Ikuta KS, Ikwegbue PC, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imam MT, Immurana M, Inamdar S, Indriasih E, Iqhrammullah M, Iradukunda A, Iregbu KC, Islam MR, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iyamu IO, Iyer M, J LM, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jafarzadeh A, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jaiswal A, Jamshidi E, Janko MM, Jatau AI, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jebai R, Jee SH, Jeganathan J, Jha AK, Jha RP, Jiang H, Jin Y, Johnson O, Jokar M, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Joshy G, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, K V, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kadir DH, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kalankesh LR, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamal VK, Kamarajah SK, Kamath R, Kamiab Z, Kamyari N, Kanagasabai T, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kanmanthareddy AR, Kanmiki EW, Kanmodi KK, Kannan S S, Kansal SK, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karajizadeh M, Karanth SD, Karasneh RA, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karim A, Karimi SE, Karimi Behnagh A, Kashoo FZ, Kasnazani QHA, Kasraei H, Kassebaum NJ, Kassel MB, Kauppila JH, Kaur N, Kawakami N, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Kazmi TH, Kebebew GM, Kebede AD, Kebede F, Keflie TS, Keiyoro PN, Keller C, Kelly JT, Kempen JH, Kerr JA, Kesse-Guyot E, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalid N, Khalil AA, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan A, Khan G, Khan I, Khan IA, Khan MN, Khan M, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khan ZA, Khan suheb MZ, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatami F, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khavandegar A, Khayat Kashani HR, Khidri FF, Khodadoust E, Khorgamphar M, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Khosravi A, Khosravi MA, Kifle ZD, Kim G, Kim J, Kim K, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinzel KE, Kisa A, Kisa S, Klu D, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kocsis T, Koh DSQ, Kolahi AA, Kolves K, Kompani F, Koren G, Kosen S, Kostev K, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Krishna H, Krishna V, Krishnamoorthy V, Krishnamoorthy Y, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar A, Kumar A, Kumar H, Kumar M, Kumar R, Kumari M, Kumie FT, Kundu S, Kurmi OP, Kusnali A, Kusuma D, Kwarteng A, Kyriopoulos I, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lacey B, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lagat AK, Lager ACJ, Lahmar A, Lai DTC, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lám J, Landrum KR, Lanfranchi F, Lang JJ, Langguth B, Lansingh VC, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lassi ZS, Latief K, Latifinaibin K, Lauriola P, Le NHH, Le TTT, Le TDT, Ledda C, Ledesma JR, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SWH, Lee WC, Lee YH, LeGrand KE, Leigh J, Leong E, Lerango TL, Li MC, Li W, Li X, Li Y, Li Z, Ligade VS, Likaka ATM, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lindstrom M, Linehan C, Liu C, Liu G, Liu J, Liu R, Liu S, Liu X, Liu X, Llanaj E, Loftus MJ, López-Bueno R, Lopukhov PD, Loreche AM, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Ma ZF, Maass KL, Machairas N, Machoy M, Madadizadeh F, Madsen C, Madureira-Carvalho ÁM, Maghazachi AA, Maharaj SB, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi A, Mahmoudi E, Mahmoudi R, Majeed A, Makhdoom IF, Malakan Rad E, Maled V, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra AK, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Mansouri P, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Maqsood S, Marasini BP, Marateb HR, Maravilla JC, Marconi AM, Mardi P, Marino M, Marjani A, Martinez G, Martinez-Guerra BA, Martinez-Piedra R, Martini D, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Marzo RR, Masaka A, Masrie A, Mathieson S, Mathioudakis AG, Mathur MR, Mattumpuram J, Matzopoulos R, Maude RJ, Maugeri A, Maulik PK, Mayeli M, Mazaheri M, Mazidi M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McLaughlin SA, McPhail SM, Mechili EA, Medina JRC, Mediratta RP, Meena JK, Mehra R, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mekene Meto T, Meles GG, Mendez-Lopez MAM, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengist B, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meresa HA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mesfin BA, Mestrovic T, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Meylakhs P, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Mi T, Miazgowski T, Micha G, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Minh LHN, Mini GK, Mir Mohammad Sadeghi P, Mirica A, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirutse MK, Mirzaei M, Misganaw A, Mishra A, Misra S, Mitchell PB, Mithra P, Mittal C, Mobayen M, Moberg ME, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed H, Mohammed H, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mojiri-Forushani H, Mokari A, Mokdad AH, Molinaro S, Molokhia M, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni MA, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradzadeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosser JF, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mouodi S, Mousavi P, Mousavi SE, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mpolya EA, Mrejen M, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mueller UO, Mughal F, Mukherjee S, Mulita F, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Musaigwa F, Musallam KM, Mustafa A, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Muthusamy R, Muzaffar M, Myung W, Nagarajan AJ, Nagel G, Naghavi P, Naheed A, Naik GR, Naik G, Nainu F, Nair S, Najmuldeen HHR, Nakhostin Ansari N, Nangia V, Naqvi AA, Narasimha Swamy S, Narayana AI, Nargus S, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Nasehi S, Nashwan AJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nazri-Panjaki A, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba SO, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nena E, Nepal S, Ng M, Nggada HA, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AH, Nguyen DH, Nguyen HTH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Niazi RK, Nielsen KR, Nigatu YT, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikoomanesh F, Nikpoor AR, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Nnyanzi LA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Noreen M, Noroozi N, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Novotney A, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Nutor JJ, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Oboh MA, Odetokun IA, Odogwu NM, O'Donnell MJ, Oduro MS, Ofakunrin AOD, Ogunkoya A, Oguntade AS, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olaiya MT, Olatubi MI, Oliveira GMM, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Omar HA, Omar Bali A, Omer GL, Ondayo MA, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Onyedibe KI, Ordak M, Orisakwe OE, Orish VN, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Osman WMS, Ostroff SM, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi MO, Ozten Y, P A MP, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pal PK, Palicz T, Palladino C, Palladino R, Palma-Alvarez RF, Pan F, Pan HF, Pana A, Panda P, Panda-Jonas S, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Panos LD, Pantazopoulos I, Pantea Stoian AM, Papadopoulou P, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Pasovic M, Passera R, Pasupula DK, Patel HM, Patel J, Patel SK, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Paudel U, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Peprah P, Perdigão J, Pereira M, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Pestell RG, Pesudovs K, Petermann-Rocha FE, Petri WA, Pham HT, Philip AK, Phillips MR, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Piracha ZZ, Piradov MA, Pirouzpanah S, Plakkal N, Plotnikov E, Podder V, Poddighe D, Polinder S, Polkinghorne KR, Poluru R, Ponkilainen VT, Porru F, Postma MJ, Poudel GR, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prakasham TN, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Prieto Alhambra D, PRISCILLA TINA, Pritchett N, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qazi AS, Qian G, Qiu S, Qureshi MF, Rabiee Rad M, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafferty Q, Raggi A, Raghav PR, Raheem N, Rahim F, Rahim MJ, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MM, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahmanian V, Rajaa S, Rajput P, Rakovac I, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rane A, Rao CR, Rao IR, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rasali DP, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashidi MM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rasul A, Rathnaiah Babu G, Rauniyar SK, Ravangard R, Ravikumar N, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawal L, Rawassizadeh R, Rawlley B, Raza RZ, Razo C, Redwan EMM, Rehman FU, Reifels L, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Reyes LF, Rezaei M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rhee TG, Riaz MA, Ribeiro ALP, Rickard J, Riva HR, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues CF, Rodrigues M, Roever L, Rogowski ELB, Rohloff P, Romadlon DS, Romero-Rodríguez E, Romoli M, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rout HS, Roy N, Roy P, Rubagotti E, Ruela GDA, Rumisha SF, Runghien T, Rwegerera GM, Rynkiewicz A, S N C, Saad AMA, Saadatian Z, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, SaberiKamarposhti M, Sabour S, Sacco S, Sachdev PS, Sachdeva R, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi E, Sadeghian F, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safaeinejad F, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Saghazadeh A, Sagoe D, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahoo U, Sahu M, Saif Z, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salam N, Salamati P, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanna F, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sao Jose BP, Sarasmita MA, Saraswathy SYI, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar T, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Satpathy M, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Saylan M, Sayyah M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schlaich MP, Schlee W, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schuermans A, Schumacher AE, Schutte AE, Schwarzinger M, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Šekerija M, Selvaraj S, Senapati S, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serban D, Sethi Y, Sha F, Shabany M, Shafaat A, Shafie M, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shah SM, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid I, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahsavari HR, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh A, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shalash AS, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshad H, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma U, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shayan M, Shehabeldine AME, Sheikh A, Sheikhi RA, Shen J, Shetty A, Shetty BSK, Shetty PH, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shin YH, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shitaye NA, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shokraneh F, Shokri A, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shrestha S, Shuval K, Siddig EE, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh G, Singh J, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Sinha DN, Sinto R, Siraj MS, Sirota SB, Sitas F, Sivakumar S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Socea B, Sokhan A, Solanki R, Solanki S, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Song S, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Spearman S, Sreeramareddy CT, Srivastava VK, Stanaway JD, Stanikzai MH, Stark BA, Starnes JR, Starodubova AV, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiner C, Steinmetz JD, Steiropoulos P, Stevanović A, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Subramaniyan V, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun HZ, Sun J, Sundström J, Sunkersing D, Sunnerhagen KS, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabish M, TADAKAMADLA JYOTHI, Tadakamadla SK, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taiba J, Takahashi K, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tampa M, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tandukar S, Tang H, Tang HK, Tarigan IU, Tariku MK, Tariqujjaman M, Tarkang EE, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Taveira N, Tefera YM, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Tesler R, Teye-Kwadjo E, Thakur R, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Tharwat S, Thayakaran R, Thomas N, Thomas NK, Thomson AM, Thrift AG, Thum CCC, Thygesen LC, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tillawi T, Tiruye TY, Titova MV, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Toriola AT, Torre AE, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran JT, Tran NM, Trico D, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsegay GM, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tung K, Tyrovolas S, Uddin SMN, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ullah A, Ullah I, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umakanthan S, Umeokonkwo CD, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Unsworth CA, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Usman JS, Vahabi SM, Vaithinathan AG, Valizadeh R, Van de Velde SM, Van den Eynde J, Varga O, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vasic M, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Verghese NA, Verma M, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Villanueva GI, Vinayak M, Violante FS, Viskadourou M, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Vongpradith A, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic R, Wafa HA, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang C, Wang N, Wang S, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Waqas M, Ward P, Wassie EG, Watson S, Watson SLW, Weerakoon KG, Wei MY, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Westerman R, Whisnant JL, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilandika A, Wilkerson C, Willeit P, Wilson S, Wojewodzic MW, Woldegebreal DH, Wolf AW, Wolfe CDA, Wondimagegene YA, Wong YJ, Wongsin U, Wu AM, Wu C, Wu F, Wu X, Wu Z, Xia J, Xiao H, Xie Y, Xu S, Xu WD, Xu X, Xu YY, Yadollahpour A, Yamagishi K, Yang D, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Yaribeygi H, Ye P, Yehualashet SS, Yesiltepe M, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yi S, Yigezu A, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yip P, Yismaw MB, Yismaw Y, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, You Y, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yu Y, Yuh FH, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zafari N, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zand R, Zangiabadian M, Zar HJ, Zare I, Zarrintan A, Zeariya MGM, Zeinali Z, Zhang H, Zhang J, Zhang J, Zhang L, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Zhao H, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu L, Ziafati M, Zielińska M, Zitoun OA, Zoladl M, Zou Z, Zuhlke LJ, Zumla A, Zweck E, Zyoud SH, Wool EE, Murray CJL. Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2100-2132. [PMID: 38582094 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00367-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Revised: 02/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/08/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
2
|
Brauer M, Roth GA, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, Abate KH, Abate YH, Abbafati C, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasi MA, Abbasian M, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd ElHafeez S, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdi P, Abdollahi M, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Abdullahi A, Abebe M, Abedi A, Abedi A, Abegaz TM, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Abiodun O, Abiso TL, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abouzid M, Aboye GB, Abreu LG, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abukhadijah HJJ, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Adane MM, Addo IY, Addolorato G, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Aden B, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adha R, Adibi A, Adnani QES, Adzigbli LA, Afolabi AA, Afolabi RF, Afshin A, Afyouni S, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agampodi SB, Agbozo F, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad N, Ahmad S, Ahmad T, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Akalu GT, Akara EM, Akbarialiabad H, Akhlaghi S, Akinosoglou K, Akinyemiju T, Akkaif MA, Akkala S, Akombi-Inyang B, Al Awaidy S, Al Hasan SM, Alahdab F, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alalalmeh SO, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Albakri A, AlBataineh MT, Aldhaleei WA, Aldridge RW, Alemayohu MA, Alemu YM, Al-Fatly B, Al-Gheethi AAS, Al-Habbal K, Alhabib KF, Alhassan RK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali BA, Ali I, Ali L, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali SSS, Ali W, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Al-Marwani S, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almustanyir S, Alomari MA, Alonso J, Alqahtani JS, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Raddadi RM, Alrawashdeh A, Al-Rifai RH, Alrousan SM, Al-Sabah SK, Alshahrani NZ, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Aluh DO, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Alwafi H, Al-Wardat MS, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Al-Zyoud W, Amaechi UA, Aman Mohammadi M, Amani R, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Ammirati E, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson JA, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Anenberg SC, Angappan D, Angus C, Anil A, Anil S, Anjum A, Anoushiravani A, Antonazzo IC, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anuoluwa BS, Anvari D, Anvari S, Anwar S, Anwar SL, Anwer R, Anyabolo EE, Anyasodor AE, Apostol GLC, Arabloo J, Arabzadeh Bahri R, Arafat M, Areda D, Aregawi BB, Aremu A, Armocida B, Arndt MB, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Artanti KD, Aruleba IT, Arumugam A, Asbeutah AM, Asgary S, Asgedom AA, Ashbaugh C, Ashemo MY, Ashraf T, Askarinejad A, Assmus M, Astell-Burt T, Athar M, Athari SS, Atorkey P, Atreya A, Aujayeb A, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Awoke AA, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayatollahi H, Ayestas Portugal C, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Azadnajafabad S, Azevedo RMS, Azhar GS, Azizi H, Azzam AY, Backhaus IL, Badar M, Badiye AD, Bagga A, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bahrami Taghanaki P, Bai R, Baig AA, Baker JL, Bakkannavar SM, Balasubramanian M, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik B, Banik PC, Banke-Thomas A, Bansal H, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Bardideh E, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barrero LH, Barrow A, Barteit S, Basharat Z, Basiru A, Basso JD, Bastan MM, Basu S, Batchu S, Batra K, Batra R, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Beaney T, Behnoush AH, Beiranvand M, Béjot Y, Bekele A, Belgaumi UI, Bell AW, Bell ML, Bello MB, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bendak S, Bennett DA, Bennitt FB, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Beran A, Berezvai Z, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bettencourt PJG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhuiyan MA, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Bishai JD, Bisignano C, Biswas A, Biswas B, Biswas RK, Bjørge T, Boachie MK, Boakye H, Bockarie MJ, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bogale EK, Bolla SR, Boloor A, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Boppana SH, Bora Basara B, Borhany H, Botero Carvajal A, Bouaoud S, Boufous S, Bourne R, Boxe C, Braithwaite D, Brant LC, Brar A, Breitborde NJK, Breitner S, Brenner H, Briko AN, Britton G, Brown CS, Browne AJ, Brunoni AR, Bryazka D, Bulamu NB, Bulto LN, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cagney J, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Cao F, Cao Y, Capodici A, Cárdenas R, Carr S, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carugno A, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Caye A, Cederroth CR, Cegolon L, Cenderadewi M, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chadwick J, Chakraborty C, Chakraborty PA, Chakraborty S, Chan JSK, Chan RNC, Chandan JS, Chandika RM, Chaturvedi P, Chen AT, Chen CS, Chen H, Chen MX, Chen M, Chen S, Cheng CY, Cheng ETW, Cherbuin N, Chi G, Chichagi F, Chimed-Ochir O, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Chitheer A, Cho WCS, Chong B, Chopra H, Chowdhury R, Christopher DJ, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung SC, Chutiyami M, Cioffi I, Cogen RM, Cohen AJ, Columbus A, Conde J, Corlateanu A, Cortese S, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Costanzo S, Criqui MH, Cruz JA, Cruz-Martins N, Culbreth GT, da Silva AG, Dadras O, Dai X, Dai Z, Daikwo PU, Dalli LL, Damiani G, D'Amico E, D'Anna L, Darwesh AM, Das JK, Das S, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, De la Hoz FP, de la Torre-Luque A, De Leo D, Debopadhaya S, Degenhardt L, Del Bo' C, Delgado-Enciso I, Delgado-Saborit JM, Demoze CK, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dervenis N, Dervišević E, Desai HD, Desai R, Devanbu VGC, Dewan SMR, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhane AS, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Dhingra S, Dhulipala VR, Dhungana RR, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Diaz LA, Diaz MJ, Dima A, Ding DD, Dinu M, Djalalinia S, Do TC, Do THP, do Prado CB, Dodangeh M, Dohare S, Dokova KG, Dong W, Dongarwar D, D'Oria M, Dorostkar F, Dorsey ER, Doshi R, Doshmangir L, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza AC, Dsouza HL, Dumith SC, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Dushpanova A, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, Ebrahimi A, Echieh CP, Ed-Dra A, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Edvardsson K, Efendi F, Eftekharimehrabad A, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, El Arab RA, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Dahiyat F, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, ElGohary GMT, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, Elmehrath AO, Elmeligy OAA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emeto TI, Esfandiari N, Eshrati B, Eslami M, Esmaeili SV, Estep K, Etaee F, Fabin N, Fagbamigbe AF, Fagbule OF, Fahimi S, Falzone L, Fareed M, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faris PS, Faro A, Fasina FO, Fatehizadeh A, Fauk NK, Fazylov T, Feigin VL, Feng X, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferrara P, Ferrari AJ, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Feyisa BR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitriana I, Flavel J, Flohr C, Flood D, Flor LS, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Force LM, Fortuna D, Foschi M, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Friedman SD, Fux B, G S, Gaal PA, Gaihre S, Gajdács M, Galali Y, Gallus S, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Ganiyani MA, Garcia V, Gardner WM, Garg RK, Gautam RK, Gebi TG, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremariam TBB, Gebremeskel TG, Gerema U, Getacher L, Getahun GKA, Getie M, Ghadirian F, Ghafarian S, Ghaffari Jolfayi A, Ghailan KY, Ghajar A, Ghasemi M, Ghasempour Dabaghi G, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Gholami A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Gholizadeh N, Ghorbani M, Gil AU, Gil GF, Gilbertson NM, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gindaba EZ, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Gnedovskaya EV, Göbölös L, Godinho MA, Goel A, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Gomes NGM, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goudarzi H, Goulart AC, Gouravani M, Goyal A, Graham SM, Grivna M, Grosso G, Guan SY, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Gulati S, Gulisashvili D, Gunawardane DA, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta M, Gupta R, Gupta RD, Gupta R, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Hadaro TS, Hadian Z, Haep N, Haghi-Aminjan H, Haghmorad D, Hagins H, Haile D, Hailu A, Hajj Ali A, Halboub ES, Halimi A, Hall BJ, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hamdy NM, Hameed S, Hamidi S, Hammoud A, Hanif A, Hanifi N, Haq ZA, Haque MR, Harapan H, Hargono A, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan I, Hasan MJ, Hasan SMM, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hashmeh N, Hasnain MS, Hassan A, Hassan I, Hassan Zadeh Tabatabaei MS, Hassani S, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Hegena TY, Heidari G, Heidari M, Helfer B, Hemmati M, Henson CA, Herbert ME, Herteliu C, Heuer A, Hezam K, Hinneh TK, Hiraike Y, Hoan NQ, Holla R, Hon J, Hoque ME, Horita N, Hossain S, Hosseini SE, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hoven H, Hsairi M, Hsu JM, Hu C, Huang J, Huda MN, Hulland EN, Hultström M, Hushmandi K, Hussain J, Hussein NR, Huynh CK, Huynh HH, Ibitoye SE, Idowu OO, Ihler AL, Ikeda N, Ikuta KS, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Imam MT, Immurana M, Inbaraj LR, Irham LM, Isa MA, Islam MR, Ismail F, Ismail NE, Iso H, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iwu-Jaja CJ, J V, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain A, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jaiswal A, Jakovljevic M, Jalilzadeh Yengejeh R, Jamora RDG, Jatau AI, Javadov S, Javaheri T, Jayaram S, Jeganathan J, Jeswani BM, Jiang H, Johnson CO, Jokar M, Jomehzadeh N, Jonas JB, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshi V, Joshua CE, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kahn EM, Kalani R, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamath R, Kanagasabai T, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kanmiki EW, Kanmodi KK, Kansal SK, Kapner DJ, Kapoor N, Karagiannidis E, Karajizadeh M, Karakasis P, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Karch A, Karim A, Karimi H, Karmakar S, Kashoo FZ, Kasraei H, Kassahun WD, Kassebaum NJ, Kassel MB, Katikireddi SV, Kauppila JH, Kawakami N, Kaydi N, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kempen JH, Kerr JA, Kesse-Guyot E, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khajuria H, Khalaji A, Khalil M, Khalilian A, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan MN, Khan M, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatatbeh H, Khatatbeh MM, Khatib MN, Khavandegar A, Khayat Kashani HR, Khidri FF, Khodadoust E, Khormali M, Khorrami Z, Khosla AA, Khosrowjerdi M, Khreis H, Khusun H, Kifle ZD, Kim K, Kim MS, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kisa A, Kisa S, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AKS, Koh DSQ, Kolahi AA, Kompani F, Kong J, Koren G, Korja M, Korshunov VA, Korzh O, Kosen S, Kothari N, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Krishan K, Krishnamoorthy V, Krishnamoorthy Y, Krishnan B, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kugbey N, Kuitunen I, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar A, Kumar N, Kumar V, Kundu S, Kurmi OP, Kusnali A, Kusuma D, Kutluk T, La Vecchia C, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lahariya C, Lai DTC, Lal DK, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lan Q, Lan T, Landires I, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Lansingh VC, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Lauriola P, Le HH, Le LKD, Le NHH, Le TTT, Leasher JL, Ledda C, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SWH, Lee YH, LeGrand KE, Leigh J, Leong E, Lerango TL, Lescinsky H, Leung J, Li MC, Li WZ, Li W, Li Y, Li Z, Ligade VS, Lim LL, Lim SS, Lin RT, Lin S, Liu C, Liu G, Liu J, Liu J, Liu RT, Liu S, Liu W, Liu X, Liu X, Livingstone KM, Llanaj E, Lohiya A, López-Bueno R, Lopukhov PD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Luo L, lv H, M Amin HI, Ma ZF, Maass KL, Mabrok M, Machairas N, Machoy M, Mafhoumi A, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghazachi AA, Mahadeshwara Prasad DR, Maharaj SB, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi E, Majeed A, Makram OM, Makris KC, Malasala S, Maled V, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malinga LA, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manda AL, Manla Y, Mansour A, Mansouri B, Mansouri P, Mansourian M, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Manu E, Marateb HR, Maravilla JC, Marsh E, Martinez G, Martinez-Piedra R, Martini S, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Mathangasinghe Y, Mathioudakis AG, Matozinhos FP, Mattumpuram J, Maugeri A, Maulik PK, Mayeli M, Mazidi M, Mazzotti A, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McLaughlin SA, McPhail MA, McPhail SM, Mechili EA, Mehmood A, Mehmood K, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Meier T, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekene Meto T, Mekonnen BD, Menezes RG, Mengist B, Mensah GA, Mensah LG, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mesfin BA, Mestrovic T, Mettananda KCD, Mettananda S, Miazgowski T, Micha G, Michalek IM, Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá AC, Miller TR, Mirarefin M, Mirghafourvand M, Mirica A, Mirijello A, Mirrakhimov EM, Mirshahi A, Mirzaei M, Mishra AK, Mishra V, Mitchell PB, Mithra P, Mittal C, Moazen B, Moberg ME, Mocciaro G, Mohamadkhani A, Mohamed AZ, Mohamed AI, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammadi E, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed H, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Mondello S, Moni MA, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moore CE, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosaddeghi Heris R, Mossialos E, Motappa R, Mougin V, Mousavi P, Msherghi A, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Mullany EC, Munjal K, Murillo-Zamora E, Murlimanju BV, Musina AM, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Muthupandian S, Muthusamy R, Muzaffar M, Myung W, Nafei A, Nagarajan AJ, Nagaraju SP, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Nainu F, Nair TS, Najdaghi S, Nakhostin Ansari N, Nanavaty DP, Nangia V, Narasimha Swamy S, Narimani Davani D, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Nashwan AJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Navaratna SNK, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Ndejjo R, Nduaguba SO, Negash H, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nematollahi MH, Nepal S, Neupane S, Ng M, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen DH, Nguyen NNY, Nguyen PT, Nguyen PT, Nguyen VT, Nguyen Tran Minh D, Niazi RK, Nicholson SI, Nie J, Nikoobar A, Nikpoor AR, Ningrum DNA, Nnaji CA, Noman EA, Nomura S, Noroozi N, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nunemo MH, Nurrika D, Nutor JJ, Oancea B, O'Connell EM, Odetokun IA, O'Donnell MJ, Oduro MS, Ogunfowokan AA, Ogunkoya A, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olasupo OO, Olatubi MI, Oliveira AB, Oliveira GMM, Olorukooba AA, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Omar HA, Omar Bali A, Omer GL, Ong KL, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Onyedibe KI, Oppong AF, Ordak M, Orish VN, Ornello R, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Prado E, Osman WMS, Ostroff SM, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Otstavnov SS, Ouyahia A, Owolabi MO, Oyeyemi IT, Oyeyemi OT, P A MP, Pacheco-Barrios K, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pal PK, Palicz T, Pan F, Pan HF, Pana A, Panda SK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pangaribuan HU, Pantazopoulos I, Pantea Stoian AM, Papadopoulou P, Parent MC, Parija PP, Parikh RR, Park S, Park S, Parsons N, Pashaei A, Pasovic M, Passera R, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Paudel U, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Peprah P, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Perna S, Pesudovs K, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pham HT, Philip AK, Phillips MR, Pickering BV, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Piracha ZZ, Piradov MA, Pisoni E, Piyasena MP, Plass D, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Polkinghorne KR, Poluru R, Pond CD, Popovic DS, Porru F, Postma MJ, Poudel GR, Pour-Rashidi A, Pourshams A, Pourtaheri N, Prabhu D, Prada SI, Pradhan J, Pradhan PMS, Prasad M, Prates EJS, Purnobasuki H, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qazi AS, Qian G, Qiu S, Rabiee Rad M, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan RA, Radhakrishnan V, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafferty Q, Rafiei A, Raggi A, Raghav PR, Raheem N, Rahim F, Rahim MJ, Rahimifard M, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MO, Rahman MA, Rahmani AM, Rahmani B, Rahmanian M, Rahmanian N, Rahmanian V, Rahmati M, Rahmawaty S, Raimondo D, Rajaa S, Rajendran V, Rajput P, Ramadan MM, Ramasamy SK, Ramasubramani P, Ramazanu S, Ramteke PW, Rana J, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rane A, Rani U, Ranta A, Rao CR, Rao M, Rao PC, Rao SJ, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashidi M, Rashidi MM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Ratan ZA, Rathnaiah Babu G, Rauniyar SK, Rautalin I, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razo C, Reda ZFF, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Reifels L, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Restaino S, Reyes LF, Rezaei M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rhee TG, Riaz MA, Ribeiro ALP, Rickard J, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues CF, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Romadlon DS, Ronfani L, Rosauer JJ, Roshandel G, Rostamian M, Rotimi K, Rout HS, Roy B, Roy N, Rubagotti E, Ruela GDA, Rumisha SF, Runghien T, Russo M, Ruzzante SW, S N C, Saad AMA, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabour S, Sacco S, Sachdev PS, Sachdeva R, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Sadeghi Majd E, Saeb MR, Saeed U, Safari M, Safi S, Safi SZ, Sagar R, Sagoe D, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sahu M, Saif Z, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salam N, Salamati P, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Salehi L, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salihu D, Salimi S, Salum GA, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanjeev RK, Sanna F, Santomauro DF, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Saraswathy SYI, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sartorius B, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sattin D, Sawhney M, Saya GK, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Sayyah M, Schinckus C, Schmidt MI, Schuermans A, Schumacher AE, Schutte AE, Schwarzinger M, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Selvaraj S, Semreen MH, Senthilkumaran S, Serban D, Serre ML, Sethi Y, Shafie M, Shah H, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shah SM, Shahbandi A, Shaheen AA, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahsavari HR, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shaikh SZ, Shalash AS, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshirgaran MA, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma U, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shehabeldine AME, Shehzadi S, Sheikh A, Shen J, Shetty A, Shetty BSK, Shetty PH, Shiani A, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shrestha R, Shrestha S, Shuja KH, Shuval K, Si Y, Siddig EE, Silva DAS, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Silva TPR, Simpson CR, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh B, Singh G, Singh H, Singh JA, Singh M, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Sinto R, Sivakumar S, Siwal SS, Skhvitaridze N, Skou ST, Sleet DA, Sobia F, Soboka M, Socea B, Solaimanian S, Solanki R, Solanki S, Soliman SSM, Somayaji R, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Spearman S, Spencer CN, Sreeramareddy CT, Stachteas P, Stafford LK, Stanaway JD, Stanikzai MH, Stein C, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiner C, Steinke S, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Straif K, Stranges S, Subedi N, Subramaniyan V, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sundström J, Sunkersing D, Sunnerhagen KS, Suresh V, Swain CK, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabche C, Tabish M, Tadakamadla SK, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taherkhani A, Taiba J, Takahashi K, Talaat IM, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tat NY, Taveira N, Tefera YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Temesgen WA, Temsah MH, Teramoto M, Terefa DR, Teye-Kwadjo E, Thakur R, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapar R, Thayakaran R, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thomas NK, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tolani MA, Tolossa T, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Trabelsi K, Tran JT, Tran MTN, Tran NM, Trico D, Trihandini I, Troeger CE, Tromans SJ, Truyen TTTT, Tsatsakis A, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ullah A, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umair M, Umakanthan S, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Usman JS, Vaithinathan AG, Vakili O, Valenti M, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, van Donkelaar A, Varga O, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Vasic M, Vaziri S, Venketasubramanian N, Verghese NA, Verma M, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Villafañe JH, Villalobos-Daniel VE, Villani L, Villanueva GI, Vinayak M, Violante FS, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Volovat SR, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Waheed Y, Wang C, Wang F, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wanjau MN, Waqas M, Ward P, Waris A, Wassie EG, Weerakoon KG, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Weiss EJ, Weldetinsaa HLL, Wells KM, Wen YF, Wiangkham T, Wickramasinghe ND, Wilkerson C, Willeit P, Wilson S, Wong YJ, Wongsin U, Wozniak S, Wu C, Wu D, Wu F, Wu Z, Xia J, Xiao H, Xu S, Xu X, Xu YY, Yadav MK, Yaghoubi S, Yamagishi K, Yang L, Yano Y, Yaribeygi H, Yasufuku Y, Ye P, Yesodharan R, Yesuf SA, Yezli S, Yi S, Yiğit A, Yigzaw ZA, Yin D, Yip P, Yismaw MB, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yousefi Z, Yu C, Yu Y, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zakzuk J, Zamagni G, Zaman SB, Zandieh GGZ, Zanghì A, Zar HJ, Zare I, Zarimeidani F, Zastrozhin MS, Zeng Y, Zhai C, Zhang AL, Zhang H, Zhang L, Zhang M, Zhang Y, Zhang Z, Zhang ZJ, Zhao H, Zhao JT, Zhao XJG, Zhao Y, Zhao Y, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhou J, Zhou S, Zhu B, Zhu L, Zhu Z, Ziaeian B, Ziafati M, Zielińska M, Zimsen SRM, Zoghi G, Zoller T, Zumla A, Zyoud SH, Zyoud SH, Murray CJL, Gakidou E. Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:2162-2203. [PMID: 38762324 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00933-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2024] [Revised: 03/11/2024] [Accepted: 05/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. METHODS The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. FINDINGS Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). INTERPRETATION Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
3
|
Schumacher AE, Kyu HH, Aali A, Abbafati C, Abbas J, Abbasgholizadeh R, Abbasi MA, Abbasian M, Abd ElHafeez S, Abdelmasseh M, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdelwahab A, Abdollahi M, Abdoun M, Abdullahi A, Abdurehman AM, Abebe M, Abedi A, Abedi A, Abegaz TM, Abeldaño Zuñiga RA, Abhilash ES, Abiodun OO, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abouzid M, Abreu LG, Abrha WA, Abrigo MRM, Abtahi D, Abu Rumeileh S, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Acuna JM, Adair T, Addo IY, Adebayo OM, Adegboye OA, Adekanmbi V, Aden B, Adepoju AV, Adetunji CO, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adeyomoye OI, Adha R, Adibi A, Adikusuma W, Adnani QES, Adra S, Afework A, Afolabi AA, Afraz A, Afyouni S, Afzal S, Agasthi P, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadzade AM, Ahmadzade M, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MB, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Aji B, Ajumobi O, Akalu GT, Akara EM, Akinosoglou K, Akkala S, Akyirem S, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Al Homsi A, Al Qadire M, Ala M, Aladelusi TO, AL-Ahdal TMA, Alalalmeh SO, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam M, Alam Z, Al-amer RM, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Albashtawy M, AlBataineh MT, Aldridge RW, Alemi S, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alhabib KF, Alhalaiqa FAN, Al-Hanawi MK, Ali A, Ali A, Ali BA, Ali H, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali SSS, Ali Z, Alian Samakkhah S, Alicandro G, Alif SM, Aligol M, Alimi R, Aliyi AA, Al-Jumaily A, Aljunid SM, Almahmeed W, Al-Marwani S, Al-Maweri SAA, Almazan JU, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almidani O, Alomari MA, Alonso N, Alqahtani JS, Alqutaibi AY, Al-Sabah SK, Altaf A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Altirkawi KA, Alvi FJ, Alwafi H, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Alzoubi KH, Amare AT, Ameyaw EK, Amhare AF, Amin TT, Amindarolzarbi A, Aminian Dehkordi J, Amiri S, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amzat J, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrade PP, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angappan D, Anil A, Anjum A, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anuoluwa IA, Anwar SL, Anyasodor AE, Appiah SCY, Aqeel M, Arabloo J, Arabzadeh Bahri R, Arab-Zozani M, Arafat M, Araújo AM, Aravkin AY, Aremu A, Ariffin H, Aripov T, Armocida B, Arooj M, Artamonov AA, Artanti KD, Arulappan J, Aruleba IT, Aruleba RT, Arumugam A, Asaad M, Asgary S, Ashemo MY, Ashraf M, Asika MO, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Attia S, Aujayeb A, Avan A, Awotidebe AW, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayanore MA, Ayele GM, Ayuso-Mateos JL, Ayyoubzadeh SM, Azadnajafabad S, Azhar GS, Aziz S, Azzam AY, Babashahi M, Babu AS, Badar M, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Baghdadi S, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Bah S, Bahadorikhalili S, Bai J, Bai R, Baker JL, Bakkannavar SM, Bako AT, Balakrishnan S, Balogun SA, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Banach M, Bandyopadhyay S, Banik B, Banik PC, Bansal H, Barati S, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barker-Collo SL, Barone-Adesi F, Barqawi HJ, Barr RD, Barrero LH, Basharat Z, Bashir AIJ, Bashiru HA, Baskaran P, Basnyat B, Bassat Q, Basso JD, Basu S, Batra K, Batra R, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bayileyegn NS, Beaney T, Bedi N, Begum T, Behboudi E, Behnoush AH, Beiranvand M, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Belgaumi UI, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bello MB, Bello OO, Belo L, Beloukas A, Bendak S, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berezvai Z, Berman AE, Bermudez ANC, Bettencourt PJG, Beyene HB, Beyene KA, Bhagat DS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj PV, Bhargava A, Bhaskar S, Bhat V, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bhatti MS, Bhatti R, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Binmadi N, Bintoro BS, Biondi A, Bisignano C, Bisulli F, Biswas A, Biswas RK, Bitaraf S, Bjørge T, Bleyer A, Boampong MS, Bodolica V, Bodunrin AO, Bolarinwa OA, Bonakdar Hashemi M, Bonny A, Bora K, Bora Basara B, Borodo SB, Borschmann R, Botero Carvajal A, Bouaoud S, Boudalia S, Boyko EJ, Bragazzi NL, Braithwaite D, Brenner H, Britton G, Browne AJ, Brunoni AR, Bulamu NB, Bulto LN, Buonsenso D, Burkart K, Burns RA, Burugina Nagaraja S, Busse R, Bustanji Y, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cai T, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cao C, Cardenas CA, Cárdenas R, Carr S, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carugno A, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Catapano AL, Cattaruzza MS, Caye A, Cederroth CR, Cembranel F, Cenderadewi M, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Cevik M, Chacón-Uscamaita PRU, Chahine Y, Chakraborty C, Chan JSK, Chang CK, Charalampous P, Charan J, Chattu VK, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou V, Chavula MP, Cheema HA, Chen AT, Chen H, Chen L, Chen MX, Chen S, Cherbuin N, Chew DS, Chi G, Chirinos-Caceres JL, Chitheer A, Cho SMJ, Cho WCS, Chong B, Chopra H, Choudhary R, Chowdhury R, Chu DT, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Chung E, Chung SC, Cini KI, Clark CCT, Coberly K, Columbus A, Comfort H, Conde J, Conti S, Cortesi PA, Costa VM, Cousin E, Cowden RG, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Culbreth GT, Cullen P, Cunningham M, da Silva e Silva D, Dadana S, Dadras O, Dai Z, Dalal K, Dalli LL, Damiani G, D'Amico E, Daneshvar S, Darwesh AM, Das JK, Das S, Dash NR, Dashti M, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis Weaver N, Davletov K, De Leo D, Debele AT, Degenhardt L, Dehbandi R, Deitesfeld L, Delgado-Enciso I, Delgado-Ortiz L, Demant D, Demessa BH, Demetriades AK, Deng X, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Desai HD, Desai R, Deuba K, Devanbu VGC, Dey S, Dhali A, Dhama K, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Dhingra S, Dias da Silva D, Diaz D, Dima A, Ding DD, Dirac MA, Dixit A, Dixit SG, Do TC, Do THP, do Prado CB, Dodangeh M, Dokova KG, Dolecek C, Dorsey ER, dos Santos WM, Doshi R, Doshmangir L, Douiri A, Dowou RK, Driscoll TR, Dsouza HL, Dube J, Dumith SC, Dunachie SJ, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Durojaiye OC, Dutta S, Dzianach PA, Dziedzic AM, Ebenezer O, Eboreime E, Ebrahimi A, Echieh CP, Ed-Dra A, Edinur HA, Edvardsson D, Edvardsson K, Efendi D, Efendi F, Eghdami S, Eikemo TA, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekpor E, Ekundayo TC, El Arab RA, El Morsi DAW, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elbarazi I, Elemam NM, Elgar FJ, Elgendy IY, ElGohary GMT, Elhabashy HR, Elhadi M, Elmeligy OAA, Elshaer M, Elsohaby I, Emami Zeydi A, Emamverdi M, Emeto TI, Engelbert Bain L, Erkhembayar R, Eshetie TC, Eskandarieh S, Espinosa-Montero J, Estep K, Etaee F, Eze UA, Fabin N, Fadaka AO, Fagbamigbe AF, Fahimi S, Falzone L, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Farjoud Kouhanjani M, Faro A, Farrokhpour H, Fatehizadeh A, Fattahi H, Fauk NK, Fazeli P, Feigin VL, Fekadu G, Fereshtehnejad SM, Feroze AH, Ferrante D, Ferrara P, Ferreira N, Fetensa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Flavel J, Flaxman AD, Flor LS, Florin BT, Folayan MO, Foley KM, Fomenkov AA, Force LM, Fornari C, Foroutan B, Foschi M, Francis KL, Franklin RC, Freitas A, Friedman J, Friedman SD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Gaal PA, Gadanya MA, Gaihre S, Gaipov A, Gakidou E, Galali Y, Galehdar N, Gallus S, Gan Q, Gandhi AP, Ganesan B, Garg J, Gau SY, Gautam P, Gautam RK, Gazzelloni F, Gebregergis MW, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremariam TB, Gerema U, Getachew ME, Getachew T, Gething PW, Ghafourifard M, Ghahramani S, Ghailan KY, Ghajar A, Ghanbarnia MJ, Ghasemi M, Ghasemzadeh A, Ghassemi F, Ghazy RM, Ghimire S, Gholamian A, Gholamrezanezhad A, Ghorbani Vajargah P, Ghozali G, Ghozy S, Ghuge AD, Gialluisi A, Gibson RM, Gil AU, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginindza TG, Girmay A, Glasbey JC, Gnedovskaya EV, Göbölös L, Goel A, Goldust M, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golestanfar A, Golinelli D, Gona PN, Goudarzi H, Goudarzian AH, Goyal A, Greenhalgh S, Grivna M, Guarducci G, Gubari MIM, Gudeta MD, Guha A, Guicciardi S, Gunawardane DA, Gunturu S, Guo C, Gupta AK, Gupta B, Gupta IR, Gupta RD, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Gupta VK, Gutiérrez RA, Habibzadeh F, Habibzadeh P, Hachinski V, Haddadi M, Haddadi R, Haep N, Hajj Ali A, Halboub ES, Halim SA, Hall BJ, Haller S, Halwani R, Hamadeh RR, Hamagharib Abdullah K, Hamidi S, Hamiduzzaman M, Hammoud A, Hanifi N, Hankey GJ, Hannan MA, Haque MN, Harapan H, Haro JM, Hasaballah AI, Hasan F, Hasan I, Hasan MT, Hasani H, Hasanian M, Hasanpour- Dehkordi A, Hassan AM, Hassan A, Hassanian-Moghaddam H, Hassanipour S, Haubold J, Havmoeller RJ, Hay SI, Hbid Y, Hebert JJ, Hegazi OE, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Helfer B, Herteliu C, Hesami H, Hettiarachchi D, Heyi DZ, Hezam K, Hiraike Y, Hoffman HJ, Holla R, Horita N, Hossain MB, Hossain MM, Hossain S, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh H, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hsairi M, Hsieh VCR, Hu C, Huang J, Huda MN, Hugo FN, Hultström M, Hussain J, Hussain S, Hussein NR, Huy LD, Huynh HH, Hwang BF, Ibitoye SE, Idowu OO, Ijo D, Ikuta KS, Ilaghi M, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Inbaraj LR, Iradukunda A, Iravanpour F, Iregbu KC, Islam MR, Islam MM, Islam SMS, Islami F, Ismail NE, Isola G, Iwagami M, Iwu CCD, Iwu-Jaja CJ, Iyer M, J LM, Jaafari J, Jacob L, Jacobsen KH, Jadidi-Niaragh F, Jafarinia M, Jaggi K, Jahankhani K, Jahanmehr N, Jahrami H, Jain A, Jain N, Jairoun AA, Jakovljevic M, Jalilzadeh Yengejeh R, Jamshidi E, Jani CT, Janko MM, Jatau AI, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jeganathan J, Jema AT, Jemere DM, Jeong W, Jha AK, Jha RP, Ji JS, Jiang H, Jin Y, Jin Y, Johnson O, Jomehzadeh N, Jones DP, Joo T, Joseph A, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kaambwa B, Kabir A, Kabir H, Kabir Z, Kadashetti V, Kahe F, Kakodkar PV, Kalani R, Kalankesh LR, Kaliyadan F, Kalra S, Kamath A, Kamireddy A, Kanagasabai T, Kandel H, Kanmiki EW, Kanmodi KK, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karajizadeh M, Karami Matin B, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Karim A, Karimi H, Karimi SE, Karimi Behnagh A, Karkhah S, Karna AK, Kashoo FZ, Kasraei H, Kassaw NA, Kassebaum NJ, Kassel MB, Katamreddy A, Katikireddi SV, Katoto PDMC, Kauppila JH, Kaur N, Kaydi N, Kayibanda JF, Kayode GA, Kazemi F, Kazemian S, Kazeminia S, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Keller C, Kempen JH, Kerr JA, Kesse-Guyot E, Keykhaei M, Khadembashiri MM, Khadembashiri MA, Khafaie MA, Khajuria H, Khalafi M, Khalaji A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khamesipour F, Khan A, Khan G, Khan I, Khan IA, Khan M, Khan MAB, Khan T, Khan suheb MZ, Khanmohammadi S, Khatab K, Khatami F, Khavandegar A, Khayat Kashani HR, Kheirallah KA, Khidri FF, Khodadoust E, Khormali M, Khosrowjerdi M, Khubchandani J, Khusun H, Kifle ZD, Kim G, Kim J, Kimokoti RW, Kinzel KE, Kiross GT, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kiss JB, Kivimäki M, Klu D, Knudsen AKS, Kolahi AA, Kompani F, Koren G, Kosen S, Kostev K, Kotnis AL, Koul PA, Koulmane Laxminarayana SL, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Krishna H, Krishnamoorthy V, Krishnamoorthy Y, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kubeisy CM, Kucuk Bicer B, Kuddus MA, Kuddus M, Kuitunen I, Kujan O, Kulimbet M, Kulkarni V, Kumar A, Kumar H, Kumar N, Kumar R, Kumar S, Kumari M, Kurmanova A, Kurmi OP, Kusnali A, Kusuma D, Kutluk T, Kuttikkattu A, Kyei EF, Kyriopoulos I, La Vecchia C, Ladan MA, Laflamme L, Lahariya C, Lahmar A, Lai DTC, Laksono T, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lám J, Lamnisos D, Lan T, Lanfranchi F, Langguth B, Lansingh VC, Laplante-Lévesque A, Larijani B, Larsson AO, Lasrado S, Latief K, Latif M, Latifinaibin K, Lauriola P, Le LKD, Le NHH, Le TTT, Le TDT, Lee M, Lee PH, Lee SW, Lee SW, Lee WC, Lee YH, Legesse SM, Leigh J, Lenzi J, Leong E, Lerango TL, Li MC, Li W, Li X, Li Y, Li Z, Libra M, Ligade VS, Likaka ATM, Lim LL, Lin RT, Lin S, Lioutas VA, Listl S, Liu J, Liu S, Liu X, Livingstone KM, Llanaj E, Lo CH, Loreche AM, Lorenzovici L, Lotfi M, Lotfizadeh M, Lozano R, Lubinda J, Lucchetti G, Lugo A, Lunevicius R, Ma J, Ma S, Ma ZF, Mabrok M, Machairas N, Machoy M, Madsen C, Magaña Gómez JA, Maghazachi AA, Maharaj SB, Maharjan P, Mahjoub S, Mahmoud MA, Mahmoudi E, Mahmoudi M, Makram OM, Malagón-Rojas JN, Malakan Rad E, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra AK, Malhotra K, Malik AA, Malik I, Malinga LA, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manla Y, Mannan F, Mansoori Y, Mansour A, Mansouri V, Mansournia MA, Mantovani LG, Marasini BP, Marateb HR, Maravilla JC, Marconi AM, Mardi P, Marino M, Marjani A, Marrugo Arnedo CA, Martinez-Guerra BA, Martinez-Piedra R, Martins CA, Martins-Melo FR, Martorell M, Marx W, Maryam S, Marzo RR, Mate KKV, Matei CN, Mathioudakis AG, Maude RJ, Maugeri A, May EA, Mayeli M, Mazaheri M, Mazidi M, Mazzotti A, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McKowen ALW, McLaughlin SA, McPhail MA, McPhail SM, Mechili EA, Mediratta RP, Meena JK, Mehari M, Mehlman ML, Mehra R, Mehrabani-Zeinabad K, Mehrabi Nasab E, Mehrotra R, Mekonnen MM, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Mengesha EW, Mensah GA, Mensah LG, Mentis AFA, Meo SA, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mesfin BA, Mestrovic T, Mhlanga A, Mhlanga L, Mi T, Micha G, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Mindlin SN, Minelli G, Minh LHN, Mini GK, Minja NW, Mirdamadi N, Mirghafourvand M, Mirica A, Mirinezhad SK, Mirmosayyeb O, Mirutse MK, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mirzaei M, Misgana T, Misra S, Mitchell PB, Mithra P, Mittal C, Mittal M, Moazen B, Mohamed AI, Mohamed J, Mohamed MFH, Mohamed NS, Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi S, Mohammadi S, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammad-pour S, Mohammadshahi M, Mohammed M, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mojiri-forushani H, Mokdad AH, Mokhtarzadehazar P, Momenzadeh K, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moni MA, Montazeri F, Moodi Ghalibaf A, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moradpour F, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreira RS, Morovatdar N, Morrison SD, Morze J, Mosaddeghi Heris R, Mosser JF, Mossialos E, Mostafavi H, Mostofinejad A, Mougin V, Mouodi S, Mousavi P, Mousavi SE, Mousavi Khaneghah A, Mpundu-Kaambwa C, Mrejen M, Mubarik S, Muccioli L, Mueller UO, Mughal F, Mukherjee S, Mukoro GD, Mulita A, Mulita F, Muniyandi M, Munjal K, Musaigwa F, Musallam KM, Mustafa G, Muthu S, Muthupandian S, Myung W, Nabhan AF, Nafukho FM, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naghavi P, Naik GR, Naik G, Naimzada MD, Nair S, Nair TS, Najmuldeen HHR, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nargus S, Nascimento BR, Nascimento GG, Naser AY, Nasiri MJ, Natto ZS, Nauman J, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nayyar AK, Nazri-Panjaki A, Negash H, Negero AK, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Negru SM, Nejadghaderi SA, Nejjari C, Nematollahi MH, Nena E, Nepal S, Nesbit OD, Newton CRJ, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen DH, Nguyen PT, Nguyen PT, Nguyen TT, Nguyen VT, Nigatu YT, Nikolouzakis TK, Nikoobar A, Nikpoor AR, Nizam MA, Nomura S, Noreen M, Noroozi N, Norouzian Baghani A, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Novotney A, Nri-Ezedi CA, Ntaios G, Ntsekhe M, Nuñez-Samudio V, Nurrika D, Oancea B, Obamiro KO, Odetokun IA, Ofakunrin AOD, Ogunsakin RE, Oguta JO, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okidi L, Okonji OC, Okwute PG, Olagunju AT, Olaiya MT, Olanipekun TO, Olatubi MI, Olivas-Martinez A, Oliveira GMM, Oliver S, Olorukooba AA, Olufadewa II, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oluwafemi YD, Oluwatunase GO, Omar HA, Omer GL, Ong S, Onwujekwe OE, Onyedibe KI, Opio JN, Ordak M, Orellana ER, Orisakwe OE, Orish VN, Orru H, Ortega-Altamirano DV, Ortiz A, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Ortiz-Prado E, Osuagwu UL, Otoiu A, Otstavnov N, Ouyahia A, Ouyang G, Owolabi MO, Oyeyemi IT, Oyeyemi OT, Ozten Y, P A MP, Padubidri JR, Pahlavikhah Varnosfaderani M, Pal PK, Palicz T, Palladino C, Palladino R, Palma-Alvarez RF, Pana A, Panahi P, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pando-Robles V, Pangaribuan HU, Panos GD, Pantazopoulos I, Papadopoulou P, Pardhan S, Parikh RR, Park S, Parthasarathi A, Pashaei A, Pasupula DK, Patel JR, Patel SK, Pathan AR, Patil A, Patil S, Patoulias D, Patthipati VS, Paudel U, Pawar S, Pazoki Toroudi H, Pease SA, Peden AE, Pedersini P, Peng M, Pensato U, Pepito VCF, Peprah EK, Pereira G, Pereira J, Pereira M, Peres MFP, Perianayagam A, Perico N, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pezzani R, Pham HT, Phillips MR, Pierannunzio D, Pigeolet M, Pigott DM, Pilgrim T, Pinheiro M, Piradov MA, Plakkal N, Plotnikov E, Poddighe D, Pollner P, Poluru R, Pond CD, Postma MJ, Poudel GR, Poudel L, Pourali G, Pourtaheri N, Prada SI, Pradhan PMS, Prajapati VK, Prakash V, Prasad CP, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Purnobasuki H, Purohit BM, Puvvula J, Qaisar R, Qasim NH, Qattea I, Qian G, Quan NK, Radfar A, Radhakrishnan V, Raee P, Raeisi Shahraki H, Rafiei Alavi SN, Rafique I, Raggi A, Rahim F, Rahman MM, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahman T, Rahmani AM, Rahmani S, Rahnavard N, Rai P, Rajaa S, Rajabpour-Sanati A, Rajput P, Ram P, Ramadan H, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Rana J, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rancic N, Rani S, Ranjan S, Rao CR, Rao IR, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rasali DP, Rasella D, Rashedi S, Rashedi V, Rashid AM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rastogi P, Rasul A, Ravangard R, Ravikumar N, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Razeghian-Jahromi I, Reddy MMRK, Redwan EMM, Rehman FU, Reiner Jr RC, Remuzzi G, Reshmi B, Resnikoff S, Reyes LF, Rezaee M, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Riaz MA, Ribeiro AI, Ribeiro DC, Rickard J, Rios-Blancas MJ, Robinson-Oden HE, Rodrigues M, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rohilla R, Rohloff P, Romadlon DS, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roshanzamir S, Rostamian M, Roy B, Roy P, Rubagotti E, Rumisha SF, Rwegerera GM, Rynkiewicz A, S M, S N C, S Sunnerhagen K, Saad AMA, Sabbatucci M, Saber K, Saber-Ayad MM, Sacco S, Saddik B, Saddler A, Sadee BA, Sadeghi E, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian S, Saeed U, Saeedi M, Safi S, Sagar R, Saghazadeh A, Saheb Sharif-Askari N, Sahoo SS, Sahraian MA, Sajedi SA, Sajid MR, Sakshaug JW, Salahi S, Salahi S, Salamati P, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleh MA, Salehi S, Salem MR, Salem MZY, Salimi S, Samadi Kafil H, Samadzadeh S, Samara KA, Samargandy S, Samodra YL, Samuel VP, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanadgol N, Sanganyado E, Sanjeev RK, Sanmarchi F, Sanna F, Santri IN, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarasmita MA, Saravanan A, Saravi B, Sarikhani Y, Sarkar C, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sarveazad A, Sathian B, Sathish T, Sattin D, Saulam J, Sawyer SM, Saxena S, Saya GK, Sayadi Y, Sayeed A, Sayeed MA, Saylan M, Scarmeas N, Schaarschmidt BM, Schlee W, Schmidt MI, Schuermans A, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Šekerija M, Selvaraj S, Semreen MH, Senapati S, Sengupta P, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Serban D, Sertsu A, Sethi Y, SeyedAlinaghi S, Seyedi SA, Shafaat A, Shafaat O, Shafie M, Shafiee A, Shah NS, Shah PA, Shahabi S, Shahbandi A, Shahid I, Shahid S, Shahid W, Shahwan MJ, Shaikh MA, Shakeri A, Shakil H, Sham S, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshad H, Shamshirgaran MA, Shamsi MA, Shanawaz M, Shankar A, Sharfaei S, Sharifan A, Shariff M, Sharifi-Rad J, Sharma M, Sharma R, Sharma S, Sharma V, Shastry RP, Shavandi A, Shaw DH, Shayan AM, Shehabeldine AME, Sheikh A, Sheikhi RA, Shen J, Shenoy MM, Shetty BSK, Shetty RS, Shey RA, Shiani A, Shibuya K, Shiferaw D, Shigematsu M, Shin JI, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shittu A, Shiue I, Shivakumar KM, Shivarov V, Shool S, Shrestha S, Shuja KH, Shuval K, Si Y, Sibhat MM, Siddig EE, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva JP, Silva LMLR, Silva S, Simões JP, Simpson CR, Singal A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh A, Singh BB, Singh B, Singh M, Singh M, Singh NP, Singh P, Singh S, Siraj MS, Sitas F, Sivakumar S, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Sleet DA, Slepak ELN, Sohrabi H, Soleimani H, Soliman SSM, Solmi M, Solomon Y, Song Y, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Spartalis M, Sreeramareddy CT, Starnes JR, Starodubov VI, Starodubova AV, Stefan SC, Stein DJ, Steinbeis F, Steiropoulos P, Stockfelt L, Stokes MA, Stortecky S, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Suleman M, Suliankatchi Abdulkader R, Sultana A, Sun J, Sunkersing D, Susanty S, Swain CK, Sykes BL, Szarpak L, Szeto MD, Szócska M, Tabaee Damavandi P, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabb KM, Tabish M, Taborda-Barata LM, Tabuchi T, Tadesse BT, Taheri A, Taheri Abkenar Y, Taheri Soodejani M, Taherkhani A, Taiba J, Tajbakhsh A, Talaat IM, Talukder A, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tang H, Tang HK, Tat NY, Tat VY, Tavakoli Oliaee R, Tavangar SM, Taveira N, Tebeje TM, Tefera YM, Teimoori M, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Tesfaye SH, Thangaraju P, Thankappan KR, Thapa R, Thapar R, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thum CCC, Tian J, Tichopad A, Ticoalu JHV, Tiruye TY, Tohidast SA, Tonelli M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tram KH, Tran NM, Trico D, Trihandini I, Tromans SJ, Truong VT, Truyen TTTT, Tsermpini EE, Tumurkhuu M, Tung K, Tyrovolas S, Ubah CS, Udoakang AJ, Udoh A, Ulhaq I, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umair M, Umar TP, Umeokonkwo CD, Umesh A, Unim B, Unnikrishnan B, Upadhyay E, Urso D, Vacante M, Vahdani AM, Vaithinathan AG, Valadan Tahbaz S, Valizadeh R, Van den Eynde J, Varavikova E, Varga O, Varma SA, Vart P, Varthya SB, Vasankari TJ, Veerman LJ, Venketasubramanian N, Venugopal D, Verghese NA, Verma M, Verma P, Veroux M, Verras GI, Vervoort D, Vieira RJ, Villafañe JH, Villani L, Villanueva GI, Villeneuve PJ, Violante FS, Visontay R, Vlassov V, Vo B, Vollset SE, Volovat SR, Volovici V, Vongpradith A, Vos T, Vujcic IS, Vukovic R, Wado YD, Wafa HA, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang C, Wang D, Wang F, Wang S, Wang S, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward P, Watson S, Weaver MR, Weerakoon KG, Weiss DJ, Weldemariam AH, Wells KM, Wen YF, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Wijeratne T, Wilson S, Wojewodzic MW, Wool EE, Woolf AD, Wu D, Wulandari RD, Xiao H, Xu B, Xu X, Yadav L, Yaghoubi S, Yang L, Yano Y, Yao Y, Ye P, Yesera GE, Yesodharan R, Yesuf SA, Yiğit A, Yiğit V, Yip P, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, You Y, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zadey S, Zadnik V, Zafari N, Zahedi M, Zahid MN, Zahir M, Zakham F, Zaki N, Zakzuk J, Zamagni G, Zaman BA, Zaman SB, Zamora N, Zand R, Zandi M, Zandieh GGZ, Zanghì A, Zare I, Zastrozhin MS, Zeariya MGM, Zeng Y, Zhai C, Zhang C, Zhang H, Zhang H, Zhang Y, Zhang Z, Zhang Z, Zhao H, Zhao Y, Zhao Y, Zheng P, Zhong C, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhu Z, Ziaeefar P, Zielińska M, Zou Z, Zumla A, Zweck E, Zyoud SH, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2024; 403:1989-2056. [PMID: 38484753 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Revised: 12/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
4
|
Alqahtani AH, Jagpal P, Kudagammana T, Vedanthan PK, Krishnamurthy K, Hariharan S, El Shabrawy Mohamed Ali RM, Maharaj SB, Marriott JF, Krishna MT. Drug allergy management in Egypt, Sri Lanka and the Caribbean: A qualitative study. Clin Exp Allergy 2024; 54:231-233. [PMID: 38082508 DOI: 10.1111/cea.14437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2023] [Revised: 11/24/2023] [Accepted: 11/25/2023] [Indexed: 03/07/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Abdulaziz H Alqahtani
- The School of Pharmacy, Institute of Clinical Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- College of Pharmacy, Taif University, Taif, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Parbir Jagpal
- The School of Pharmacy, Institute of Clinical Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Thushara Kudagammana
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Peradeniya, and Teaching hospital, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
| | | | - Kandamaran Krishnamurthy
- The Queen Elizabeth Hospital, The University of West Indies, and ARS Medicae, Barbados, West Indies
| | - Seetharaman Hariharan
- Anaesthesia & Critical Care Medicine, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad, West Indies
| | | | - Sandeep B Maharaj
- The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - John F Marriott
- The School of Pharmacy, Institute of Clinical Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Mamidipudi Thirumala Krishna
- Institute of Immunology and Immunotherapy, University of Birmingham and Department of Allergy and Immunology, University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundations Trust, Birmingham, UK
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Maharaj SB, Franco DY, Seemungal TAR. Consideration for selecting international commissioners. Lancet 2024; 403:437. [PMID: 38309780 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01691-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/11/2023] [Indexed: 02/05/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Sandeep B Maharaj
- School of Pharmacy, The University of the West Indies, St Augustine Campus, St Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago.
| | - Darleen Y Franco
- Public Health and Primary Care, Northwest Regional Health Authority, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Terence A R Seemungal
- Faculty of Medical Sciences, The University of the West Indies, St Augustine Campus, St Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Holdsworth J, Hunte SA, Barker K, Sherin J, Rao M, Maharaj SB. Safeguarding the Caribbean's future: making the case to research the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on youth mental health and wellbeing. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1322831. [PMID: 38155894 PMCID: PMC10753825 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1322831] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/30/2023] Open
Abstract
This article makes a call for attention to paid on the development of a research agenda for studying the impact of climatic events on youth mental health in the Caribbean. It details the climate injustices that the region faces and the potential mental health problem which can arise from climatic events. It makes a call for interdisciplinary research and a multi stakeholder approach to dealing with this potential issue.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jaclyn Holdsworth
- Queen Elizabeth Scholarship Program, McMaster Health Forum, Hamilton, ON, Canada
| | - Shelly-Ann Hunte
- Caribbean Centre for Health Systems Research and Development, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Kershelle Barker
- Evidence Synthesis, Caribbean Centre for Health Systems Research and Development, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Jonathan Sherin
- Healthy Brains Global Initiative, Los Angeles, CA, United States
| | - Mala Rao
- Ethnicity and Health Unit, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sandeep B. Maharaj
- School of Pharmacy, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Moberg ME, Hamilton EB, Zeng SM, Bryazka D, Zhao JT, Feldman R, Abate YH, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdurehman AM, Abedi A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Addo IY, Adepoju AV, Adnani QES, Afzal S, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad S, Ahmed D, Ahmed H, Alem DT, Al-Gheethi AAS, Alimohamadi Y, Ameyaw EK, Amrollahi-Sharifabadi M, Anagaw TF, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Athari SS, Atreya A, Azari Jafari A, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagherieh S, Bansal H, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Bayileyegn NS, Berhie AY, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Boloor A, Cámera LA, Carvalho F, Carvalho M, Chandrasekar EK, Chang JC, Chattu VK, Chu DT, Coberly K, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R, Das S, Das S, Debela SA, Demessa BH, Deng X, Desta AA, Desye B, Dhimal M, Dibas M, Dsouza HL, Ekholuenetale M, El Sayed I, El-Huneidi W, Enyew DB, Fagbamigbe AF, Fatehizadeh A, Fatima SAF, Fischer F, Franklin RC, Garg T, Gebi TG, Gerema U, Getachew M, Getachew ME, Ghamari F, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Harorani M, Hasani H, Hassan AM, Hassanian-Moghaddam H, Hassen MB, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari M, Heidari-Foroozan M, Heyi DZ, Holla R, Hoogar P, Hossain MS, Hosseini MS, Hostiuc S, Hoveidamanesh S, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Immurana M, Iwu CCD, Jayarajah U, Joseph N, Joshua CE, Kadashetti V, Kanchan T, Kandel H, Kantar RS, Kapoor N, Karaye IM, Katoto PDMC, Khajuria H, Khan EA, Khateri S, Khodamoradi F, Khormali M, Khubchandani J, Kim G, Kisa A, Koohestani HR, Krishan K, Kumar N, Laflamme L, Landires I, Larijani B, Lauriola P, Le TTT, Ledda C, Lee SW, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lunevicius R, Maharaj SB, Menezes RG, Mentis AFA, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Mirmoeeni S, Misganaw A, Mishra M, Misra S, Mittal C, Mohammadi E, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Mostafavi E, Mubarik S, Mulita F, Mulualem JA, Mulugeta T, Murray CJL, Myers I, Nayak BP, Nayak VC, Nejadghaderi SA, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen VT, Nouraei H, Nzoputam OJ, Okati-Aliabad H, Olufadewa II, Ordak M, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Pandey A, Pant S, Parekh U, Pawar S, Peden AE, Petcu IR, Piel FB, Piracha ZZ, Pourali G, Qattea I, Qureshi MF, Raghav PR, Rahman M, Rahmani S, Ramasubramani P, Ramazanu S, Rawaf S, Rezaei N, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Saddik B, Sadeghi M, Sadeghian F, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Saif Z, Sakshaug JW, Salahi S, Salamati P, Samy AM, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Schwebel DC, Senthilkumaran S, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Sham S, Shashamo BB, Sheikhi RA, Shetty BSK, Shetty PH, Sibhat MM, Singh H, Singh P, Sisay EA, Solomon Y, Taheri M, Ullah I, Ullah S, Violante FS, Vu LG, Wickramasinghe ND, Yigit A, Yonemoto N, Yousefi Z, Zaman M, Zastrozhin MS, Zhang ZJ, Zheng P, Zoladl M, Steinmetz JD, Vos T, Naghavi M, Ong KL. Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Public Health 2023; 8:e839-e849. [PMID: 37813118 PMCID: PMC10602911 DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(23)00185-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2023] [Revised: 08/04/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021. METHODS As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated. FINDINGS In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9-16·0) and 3·5% (1·4-6·2), respectively. INTERPRETATION Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Collapse
|
8
|
Aguilar GR, Swetschinski LR, Weaver ND, Ikuta KS, Mestrovic T, Gray AP, Chung E, Wool EE, Han C, Hayoon AG, Araki DT, Abdollahi A, Abu-Zaid A, Adnan M, Agarwal R, Dehkordi JA, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Azzam AY, Berezin EN, Bhagavathula AS, Bhutta ZA, Bhuyan SS, Browne AJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Chandrasekar EK, Ching PR, Dai X, Darmstadt GL, De la Hoz FP, Diao N, Diaz D, Mombaque dos Santos W, Eyre D, Garcia C, Haines-Woodhouse G, Hassen MB, Henry NJ, Hopkins S, Hossain MM, Iregbu KC, Iwu CC, Jacobs JA, Janko MM, Jones R, Karaye IM, Khalil IA, Khan IA, Khan T, Khubchandani J, Khusuwan S, Kisa A, Koyaweda GW, Krapp F, Kumaran EA, Kyu HH, Lim SS, Liu X, Luby S, Maharaj SB, Maronga C, Martorell M, May J, McManigal B, Mokdad AH, Moore CE, Mostafavi E, Murillo-Zamora E, Mussi-Pinhata MM, Nanavati R, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Qamar FN, Nuñez-Samudio V, Ochoa TJ, Ojo-Akosile TR, Olagunju AT, Olivas-Martinez A, Ortiz-Brizuela E, Ounchanum P, Paredes JL, Patthipati VS, Pawar S, Pereira M, Pollard A, Ponce-De-Leon A, Sady Prates EJ, Qattea I, Reyes LF, Roilides E, Rosenthal VD, Rudd KE, Sangchan W, Seekaew S, Seylani A, Shababi N, Sham S, Sifuentes-Osornio J, Singh H, Stergachis A, Tasak N, Tat NY, Thaiprakong A, Valdez PR, Yada DY, Yunusa I, Zastrozhin MS, Hay SI, Dolecek C, Sartorius B, Murray CJ, Naghavi M. The burden of antimicrobial resistance in the Americas in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis. Lancet Reg Health Am 2023; 25:100561. [PMID: 37727594 PMCID: PMC10505822 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2023.100561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2023] [Revised: 06/22/2023] [Accepted: 07/10/2023] [Indexed: 09/21/2023]
Abstract
Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global health challenge and a critical threat to modern health care. Quantifying its burden in the WHO Region of the Americas has been elusive-despite the region's long history of resistance surveillance. This study provides comprehensive estimates of AMR burden in the Americas to assess this growing health threat. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. We obtained data from mortality registries, surveillance systems, hospital systems, systematic literature reviews, and other sources, and applied predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all countries in the Americas. Five broad components were the backbone of our approach: the number of deaths where infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of pathogens resistant to an antibiotic class, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. We then used these components to estimate the disease burden by applying two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections are replaced with susceptible ones), and deaths associated with AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections would not occur at all). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. Findings We estimated 569,000 deaths (95% UI 406,000-771,000) associated with bacterial AMR and 141,000 deaths (99,900-196,000) attributable to bacterial AMR among the 35 countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. Lower respiratory and thorax infections, as a syndrome, were responsible for the largest fatal burden of AMR in the region, with 189,000 deaths (149,000-241,000) associated with resistance, followed by bloodstream infections (169,000 deaths [94,200-278,000]) and peritoneal/intra-abdominal infections (118,000 deaths [78,600-168,000]). The six leading pathogens (by order of number of deaths associated with resistance) were Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii. Together, these pathogens were responsible for 452,000 deaths (326,000-608,000) associated with AMR. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus predominated as the leading pathogen-drug combination in 34 countries for deaths attributable to AMR, while aminopenicillin-resistant E. coli was the leading pathogen-drug combination in 15 countries for deaths associated with AMR. Interpretation Given the burden across different countries, infectious syndromes, and pathogen-drug combinations, AMR represents a substantial health threat in the Americas. Countries with low access to antibiotics and basic health-care services often face the largest age-standardised mortality rates associated with and attributable to AMR in the region, implicating specific policy interventions. Evidence from this study can guide mitigation efforts that are tailored to the needs of each country in the region while informing decisions regarding funding and resource allocation. Multisectoral and joint cooperative efforts among countries will be a key to success in tackling AMR in the Americas. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.
Collapse
|
9
|
Maharaj SB, Franco DY, Seemungal TA. Not allowed to speak-another let-down for the Caribbean people. Lancet 2023; 401:1847-1848. [PMID: 37270231 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)00925-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2023] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Sandeep B Maharaj
- School of Pharmacy, The University of the West Indies St Augustine Campus, Saint Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago.
| | - Darleen Y Franco
- Public Health and Primary Care, Northwest Regional Health Authority, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Terence Ar Seemungal
- Faculty of Medical Sciences, The University of the West Indies St Augustine Campus, Saint Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Maharaj SB, Ramsewak S, Franco DY, Ramdass A. Guyana's budget 2022: Potential for a boost to planetary health in the Caribbean region. J Glob Health 2022; 12:03022. [PMID: 35661051 PMCID: PMC9166527 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.12.03022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Sandeep B Maharaj
- Associaciate Dean Distance Education, Planning and Projects, Faculty of Medical Sciences, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago.,Global Outreach Fellow Planetary Health Alliance, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Samuel Ramsewak
- Department of Clinical Surgical Sciences, The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Campus, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Darleen Y Franco
- North West Regional Health Authority, Port of Spain Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Amrica Ramdass
- Dean's Office Faculty of Medical Sciences St. Augustine Campus, St Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Maharaj SB, Dookeeram D, Franco DY. The Nikki Minaj Effect: The impact of social media disinformation on vaccine hesitancy in the Caribbean. J Glob Health 2021; 11:03121. [PMID: 34804512 PMCID: PMC8590827 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.11.03121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Sandeep B Maharaj
- Distance Education, Planning and Projects, Faculty of Medical Sciences, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Darren Dookeeram
- Sangre Grande Hospital, Eastern Regional Health Authority, Sangre Grande, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Darleen Y Franco
- Primary Care Physician North West Regional Health Authority, Port of Spain Trinidad and Tobago
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Affiliation(s)
- S B Maharaj
- Rainbow Chicken Farms Pty (Ltd), Natal, South Africa
| | | | | |
Collapse
|
13
|
|