Variants at the Interleukin 1 Gene Locus and Pericarditis

Importance

Recurrent pericarditis is a treatment challenge and often a debilitating condition. Drugs inhibiting interleukin 1 cytokines are a promising new treatment option, but their use is based on scarce biological evidence and clinical trials of modest sizes, and the contributions of innate and adaptive immune processes to the pathophysiology are incompletely understood.

Objective

To use human genomics, transcriptomics, and proteomics to shed light on the pathogenesis of pericarditis.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of pericarditis from 5 countries. Associations were examined between the pericarditis-associated variants and pericarditis subtypes (including recurrent pericarditis) and secondary phenotypes. To explore mechanisms, associations with messenger RNA expression (cis-eQTL), plasma protein levels (pQTL), and CpG methylation of DNA (ASM-QTL) were assessed. Data from Iceland (deCODE genetics, 1983-2020), Denmark (Copenhagen Hospital Biobank/Danish Blood Donor Study, 1977-2022), the UK (UK Biobank, 1953-2021), the US (Intermountain, 1996-2022), and Finland (FinnGen, 1970-2022) were included. Data were analyzed from September 2022 to August 2023.

Exposure

Genotype.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Pericarditis.

Results

In this genome-wide association study of 4894 individuals with pericarditis (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 51.4 [17.9] years, 2734 [67.6%] male, excluding the FinnGen cohort), associations were identified with 2 independent common intergenic variants at the interleukin 1 locus on chromosome 2q14. The lead variant was rs12992780 (T) (effect allele frequency [EAF], 31%-40%; odds ratio [OR], 0.83; 95% CI, 0.79-0.87; P = 6.67 × 10-16), downstream of IL1B and the secondary variant rs7575402 (A or T) (EAF, 45%-55%; adjusted OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.93; adjusted P = 9.6 × 10-8). The lead variant rs12992780 had a smaller odds ratio for recurrent pericarditis (0.76) than the acute form (0.86) (P for heterogeneity = .03) and rs7575402 was associated with CpG methylation overlapping binding sites of 4 transcription factors known to regulate interleukin 1 production: PU.1 (encoded by SPI1), STAT1, STAT3, and CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein β (encoded by CEBPB).

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found an association between pericarditis and 2 independent sequence variants at the interleukin 1 gene locus. This finding has the potential to contribute to development of more targeted and personalized therapy of pericarditis with interleukin 1-blocking drugs.

Rare variants with large effects provide functional insights into the pathology of migraine subtypes, with and without aura

Migraine is a complex neurovascular disease with a range of severity and symptoms, yet mostly studied as one phenotype in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Here we combine large GWAS datasets from six European populations to study the main migraine subtypes, migraine with aura (MA) and migraine without aura (MO). We identified four new MA-associated variants (in PRRT2, PALMD, ABO and LRRK2) and classified 13 MO-associated variants. Rare variants with large effects highlight three genes. A rare frameshift variant in brain-expressed PRRT2 confers large risk of MA and epilepsy, but not MO. A burden test of rare loss-of-function variants in SCN11A, encoding a neuron-expressed sodium channel with a key role in pain sensation, shows strong protection against migraine. Finally, a rare variant with cis-regulatory effects on KCNK5 confers large protection against migraine and brain aneurysms. Our findings offer new insights with therapeutic potential into the complex biology of migraine and its subtypes.

Histopathology and levels of proteins in plasma associate with survival after colorectal cancer diagnosis

BACKGROUND

The TNM system is used to assess prognosis after colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis. Other prognostic factors reported include histopathological assessments of the tumour, tumour mutations and proteins in the blood. As some of these factors are strongly correlated, it is important to evaluate the independent effects they may have on survival.

METHODS

Tumour samples from 2162 CRC patients were visually assessed for amount of tumour stroma, severity of lymphocytic infiltrate at the tumour margins and the presence of lymphoid follicles. Somatic mutations in the tumour were assessed for 2134 individuals. Pre-surgical levels of 4963 plasma proteins were measured in 128 individuals. The associations between these features and prognosis were inspected by a Cox Proportional Hazards Model (CPH).

RESULTS

Levels of stroma, lymphocytic infiltration and presence of lymphoid follicles all associate with prognosis, along with high tumour mutation burden, high microsatellite instability and TP53 and BRAF mutations. The somatic mutations are correlated with the histopathology and none of the somatic mutations associate with survival in a multivariate analysis. Amount of stroma and lymphocytic infiltration associate with local invasion of tumours. Elevated levels of two plasma proteins, CA-125 and PPP1R1A, associate with a worse prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumour stroma and lymphocytic infiltration variables are strongly associated with prognosis of CRC and capture the prognostic effects of tumour mutation status. CA-125 and PPP1R1A may be useful prognostic biomarkers in CRC.

Large-scale plasma proteomics comparisons through genetics and disease associations

High-throughput proteomics platforms measuring thousands of proteins in plasma combined with genomic and phenotypic information have the power to bridge the gap between the genome and diseases. Here we performed association studies of Olink Explore 3072 data generated by the UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project1 on plasma samples from more than 50,000 UK Biobank participants with phenotypic and genotypic data, stratifying on British or Irish, African and South Asian ancestries. We compared the results with those of a SomaScan v4 study on plasma from 36,000 Icelandic people2, for 1,514 of whom Olink data were also available. We found modest correlation between the two platforms. Although cis protein quantitative trait loci were detected for a similar absolute number of assays on the two platforms (2,101 on Olink versus 2,120 on SomaScan), the proportion of assays with such supporting evidence for assay performance was higher on the Olink platform (72% versus 43%). A considerable number of proteins had genomic associations that differed between the platforms. We provide examples where differences between platforms may influence conclusions drawn from the integration of protein levels with the study of diseases. We demonstrate how leveraging the diverse ancestries of participants in the UK Biobank helps to detect novel associations and refine genomic location. Our results show the value of the information provided by the two most commonly used high-throughput proteomics platforms and demonstrate the differences between them that at times provides useful complementarity.

Association of eGFR and mortality with use of a joint model: results of a nationwide study in Iceland

OBJECTIVES

Prior studies on the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and mortality have failed to include methods to account for repeated eGFR determinations. The aim of this study was to estimate the association between eGFR and mortality in the general population in Iceland employing a joint model.

METHODS

We obtained all serum creatinine and urine protein measurements from all clinical laboratories in Iceland in the years 2008-16. Clinical data were obtained from nationwide electronic medical records. eGFR was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation and categorized as follows: 0-29, 30-44, 45-59, 60-74, 75-89, 90-104 and >104 mL/min/1.73 m2. A multiple imputation method was used to account for missing urine protein data. A joint model was used to assess risk of all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

We obtained 2 120 147 creatinine values for 218 437 individuals, of whom 84 364 (39%) had proteinuria measurements available. Median age was 46 (range 18-106) years and 47% were men. Proteinuria associated with increased risk of death for all eGFR categories in persons of all ages. In persons ≤65 years, the lowest risk was observed for eGFR of 75-89 mL/min/1.73 m2 without proteinuria. For persons aged >65 years, the lowest risk was observed for eGFR of 60-74 mL/min/1.73 m2 without proteinuria. eGFR of 45-59 mL/min/1.73 m2 without proteinuria did not associate with increased mortality risk in this age group. eGFR >104 mL/min/1.73 m2 associated with increased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

These results lend further support to the use of age-adapted eGFR thresholds for defining chronic kidney disease. Very high eGFR needs to be studied in more detail with regard to mortality.

Evaluation of Large-Scale Proteomics for Prediction of Cardiovascular Events

Importance

Whether protein risk scores derived from a single plasma sample could be useful for risk assessment for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), in conjunction with clinical risk factors and polygenic risk scores, is uncertain.

Objective

To develop protein risk scores for ASCVD risk prediction and compare them to clinical risk factors and polygenic risk scores in primary and secondary event populations.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The primary analysis was a retrospective study of primary events among 13 540 individuals in Iceland (aged 40-75 years) with proteomics data and no history of major ASCVD events at recruitment (study duration, August 23, 2000 until October 26, 2006; follow-up through 2018). We also analyzed a secondary event population from a randomized, double-blind lipid-lowering clinical trial (2013-2016), consisting of individuals with stable ASCVD receiving statin therapy and for whom proteomic data were available for 6791 individuals.

Exposures

Protein risk scores (based on 4963 plasma protein levels and developed in a training set in the primary event population); polygenic risk scores for coronary artery disease and stroke; and clinical risk factors that included age, sex, statin use, hypertension treatment, type 2 diabetes, body mass index, and smoking status at the time of plasma sampling.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Outcomes were composites of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary heart disease death or cardiovascular death. Performance was evaluated using Cox survival models and measures of discrimination and reclassification that accounted for the competing risk of non-ASCVD death.

Results

In the primary event population test set (4018 individuals [59.0% women]; 465 events; median follow-up, 15.8 years), the protein risk score had a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.93 per SD (95% CI, 1.75 to 2.13). Addition of protein risk score and polygenic risk scores significantly increased the C index when added to a clinical risk factor model (C index change, 0.022 [95% CI, 0.007 to 0.038]). Addition of the protein risk score alone to a clinical risk factor model also led to a significantly increased C index (difference, 0.014 [95% CI, 0.002 to 0.028]). Among White individuals in the secondary event population (6307 participants; 432 events; median follow-up, 2.2 years), the protein risk score had an HR of 1.62 per SD (95% CI, 1.48 to 1.79) and significantly increased C index when added to a clinical risk factor model (C index change, 0.026 [95% CI, 0.011 to 0.042]). The protein risk score was significantly associated with major adverse cardiovascular events among individuals of African and Asian ancestries in the secondary event population.

Conclusions and Relevance

A protein risk score was significantly associated with ASCVD events in primary and secondary event populations. When added to clinical risk factors, the protein risk score and polygenic risk score both provided statistically significant but modest improvement in discrimination.

Sequence variant affects GCSAML splicing, mast cell specific proteins, and risk of urticaria

Urticaria is a skin disorder characterized by outbreaks of raised pruritic wheals. In order to identify sequence variants associated with urticaria, we performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for urticaria with a total of 40,694 cases and 1,230,001 controls from Iceland, the UK, Finland, and Japan. We also performed transcriptome- and proteome-wide analyses in Iceland and the UK. We found nine sequence variants at nine loci associating with urticaria. The variants are at genes participating in type 2 immune responses and/or mast cell biology (CBLB, FCER1A, GCSAML, STAT6, TPSD1, ZFPM1), the innate immunity (C4), and NF-κB signaling. The most significant association was observed for the splice-donor variant rs56043070[A] (hg38: chr1:247556467) in GCSAML (MAF = 6.6%, OR = 1.24 (95%CI: 1.20-1.28), P-value = 3.6 × 10^-44). We assessed the effects of the variants on transcripts, and levels of proteins relevant to urticaria pathophysiology. Our results emphasize the role of type 2 immune response and mast cell activation in the pathogenesis of urticaria. Our findings may point to an IgE-independent urticaria pathway that could help address unmet clinical need.

Meta-analysis of erosive hand osteoarthritis identifies four common variants that associate with relatively large effect

OBJECTIVES

Erosive hand osteoarthritis (EHOA) is a severe subset of hand osteoarthritis (OA). It is unclear if EHOA is genetically different from other forms of OA. Sequence variants at ten loci have been associated with hand OA but none with EHOA.

METHODS

We performed meta-analysis of EHOA in 1484 cases and 550 680 controls, from 5 populations. To identify causal genes, we performed eQTL and plasma pQTL analyses, and developed one zebrafish mutant. We analysed associations of variants with other traits and estimated shared genetics between EHOA and other traits.

RESULTS

Four common sequence variants associated with EHOA, all with relatively high effect. Rs17013495 (SPP1/MEPE, OR=1.40, p=8.4×10^-14) and rs11243284 (6p24.3, OR=1.35, p=4.2×10^-11) have not been associated with OA, whereas rs11631127 (ALDH1A2, OR=1.46, p=7.1×10^-18), and rs1800801 (MGP, OR=1.37, p=3.6×10^-13) have previously been associated with hand OA. The association of rs1800801 (MGP) was consistent with a recessive mode of inheritance in contrast to its additive association with hand OA (OR homozygotes vs non-carriers=2.01, 95% CI 1.71 to 2.37). All four variants associated nominally with finger OA, although with substantially lower effect. We found shared genetic components between EHOA and other OA measures, grip strength, urate levels and gout, but not rheumatoid arthritis. We identified ALDH1A2, MGP and BMP6 as causal genes for EHOA, with loss-of-function Bmp6 zebrafish mutants displaying EHOA-like phenotypes.

CONCLUSIONS

We report on significant genetic associations with EHOA. The results support the view of EHOA as a form of severe hand OA and partly separate it from OA in larger joints.

Warfarin Is Associated With Higher Rates of Upper But Not Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding Compared with Direct Oral Anticoagulants: A Population-Based Propensity-Weighted Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

While overall gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) rates have been extensively compared between warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), it is still unclear whether upper and lower GIB rates differ between these types of drugs. This study aimed to compare upper and lower GIB rates between warfarin and DOACs in a nationwide cohort.

METHODS

Data on all patients in Iceland who received a prescription for oral anticoagulation from 2014 to 2019 were collected and their personal identification numbers linked to the electronic medical record system of the National University Hospital of Iceland and the 4 regional hospitals in Iceland. Inverse probability weighting was used to yield balanced study groups and rates of overall, major, upper, and lower GIB were compared using Cox regression. All GIB events were manually confirmed by chart review.

RESULTS

Warfarin was associated with higher rates of upper GIB (1.7 events per 100 person-years vs 0.8 events per 100 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 2.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-3.59) but similar rates of lower GIB compared with DOACs. Specifically, warfarin was associated with higher rates of upper GIB compared with apixaban (HR, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.35-5.13), dabigatran (5.47; 95% CI, 1.87-16.05), and rivaroxaban (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.00-3.05). Warfarin was associated with higher rates of major GIB compared with apixaban (2.3 events per 100 person-years vs 1.5 events per 100 person-years; HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.06-3.05), but otherwise overall and major GIB rates were similar in warfarin and DOAC users.

CONCLUSIONS

Warfarin was associated with higher rates of upper but not overall or lower GIB compared with DOACs. Warfarin was associated with higher rates of major GIB compared with apixaban.

Multiomics study of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver (NAFL) and its sequelae are growing health problems. We performed a genome-wide association study of NAFL, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, and integrated the findings with expression and proteomic data. For NAFL, we utilized 9,491 clinical cases and proton density fat fraction extracted from 36,116 liver magnetic resonance images. We identified 18 sequence variants associated with NAFL and 4 with cirrhosis, and found rare, protective, predicted loss-of-function variants in MTARC1 and GPAM, underscoring them as potential drug targets. We leveraged messenger RNA expression, splicing and predicted coding effects to identify 16 putative causal genes, of which many are implicated in lipid metabolism. We analyzed levels of 4,907 plasma proteins in 35,559 Icelanders and 1,459 proteins in 47,151 UK Biobank participants, identifying multiple proteins involved in disease pathogenesis. We show that proteomics can discriminate between NAFL and cirrhosis. The present study provides insights into the development of noninvasive evaluation of NAFL and new therapeutic options.

Cartilage Acidic Protein 1 in Plasma Associates With Prevalent Osteoarthritis and Predicts Future Risk as Well as Progression to Joint Replacements: Results From the UK Biobank Resource

OBJECTIVE

The level of cartilage acidic protein 1 (CRTAC1) in plasma was recently discovered to be associated with osteoarthritis (OA) risk and progression to joint replacement in Iceland. This study was undertaken to validate these findings in an independent population.

METHODS

In this study, 1,462 plasma proteins were measured in 54,265 participants from the UK Biobank on the Olink Explore platform. We analyzed the association of plasma proteins with prevalent OA, incident OA, and progression to joint replacement. We assessed the specificity of OA association through comparison of associations with inflammatory joint diseases and with previous joint replacement.

RESULTS

The CRTAC1 protein showed the strongest association with prevalent knee OA (odds ratio [OR] 1.34 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.27, 1.41]) and was associated with hip OA (OR 1.19 [95% CI 1.11, 1.28]). It predicted incident diagnosis of OA in the knee (hazard ratio [HR] 1.40 [95% CI 1.35, 1.46]) and hip (HR 1.25 [95% CI 1.19, 1.31]), as well as progression to joint replacement (HR 1.20 [95% CI 1.08, 1.33] for the knee and HR 1.22 [95% CI 1.08, 1.38] for the hip), while no association was found with inflammatory joint diseases. Individuals in the highest quintile of risk based on CRTAC1 level, age, sex, and body mass index had a 10-fold risk of knee or hip OA within 5 years compared to those in the lowest quintile. Adding aggrecan core protein (ACAN) and neurocan core protein (NCAN) to the model improved the prediction of OA but not joint replacement. Furthermore, we replicated the association of CUB domain-containing protein 1 with prior joint replacement.

CONCLUSION

Plasma CRTAC1 is a specific biomarker for OA and a predictor of OA risk and progression to joint replacement. Adding ACAN and NCAN protein levels to the CRTAC1 model improved the prediction of OA.

Warfarin is associated with higher rates of epistaxis compared to direct oral anticoagulants: A nationwide propensity score-weighted study

BACKGROUND

Although epistaxis is one of the most common side effects of oral anticoagulation, it is unclear whether epistaxis rates vary between different oral anticoagulants (OAC).

OBJECTIVE

To compare rates of clinically relevant epistaxis between OAC.

METHODS

Epistaxis event rates were compared between new users of apixaban, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and warfarin in a nationwide population-based cohort study over a 5-year study period, 2014-2019. Data was collected from the Icelandic Medicine Registry and the five major hospitals in Iceland. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) was used to yield balanced baseline characteristics, and epistaxis rates were compared using Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and Cox regression.

RESULTS

During the study period, 2098 patients received apixaban, 474 dabigatran, 3106 rivaroxaban, and 1403 warfarin. In total, 93 patients presented with clinically relevant epistaxis, including 11 (12%) major epistaxis events and one fatal epistaxis episode. Furthermore, seven patients (9%) with non-major epistaxis later presented with major bleeding during the follow-up period. Warfarin use was associated with higher rates of epistaxis compared to apixaban (2.2 events per 100-person years (events/100-py) vs. 0.6 events/100-py, hazard ratio [HR] 4.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.08-8.59, p < 0.001), rivaroxaban (2.2 events/100-py vs. 1.0 events/100-py, HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.28-4.01, p = 0.005), and dabigatran (2.2 events/100-py vs. no events, HR n/a, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Warfarin treatment was associated with higher rates of clinically relevant epistaxis compared to direct oral anticoagulants.

Multiomics analysis of rheumatoid arthritis yields sequence variants that have large effects on risk of the seropositive subset

OBJECTIVES

To find causal genes for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and its seropositive (RF and/or ACPA positive) and seronegative subsets.

METHODS

We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 31 313 RA cases (68% seropositive) and ~1 million controls from Northwestern Europe. We searched for causal genes outside the HLA-locus through effect on coding, mRNA expression in several tissues and/or levels of plasma proteins (SomaScan) and did network analysis (Qiagen).

RESULTS

We found 25 sequence variants for RA overall, 33 for seropositive and 2 for seronegative RA, altogether 37 sequence variants at 34 non-HLA loci, of which 15 are novel. Genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic analysis of these yielded 25 causal genes in seropositive RA and additional two overall. Most encode proteins in the network of interferon-alpha/beta and IL-12/23 that signal through the JAK/STAT-pathway. Highlighting those with largest effect on seropositive RA, a rare missense variant in STAT4 (rs140675301-A) that is independent of reported non-coding STAT4-variants, increases the risk of seropositive RA 2.27-fold (p=2.1×10^-9), more than the rs2476601-A missense variant in PTPN22 (OR=1.59, p=1.3×10^-160). STAT4 rs140675301-A replaces hydrophilic glutamic acid with hydrophobic valine (Glu128Val) in a conserved, surface-exposed loop. A stop-mutation (rs76428106-C) in FLT3 increases seropositive RA risk (OR=1.35, p=6.6×10^-11). Independent missense variants in TYK2 (rs34536443-C, rs12720356-C, rs35018800-A, latter two novel) associate with decreased risk of seropositive RA (ORs=0.63-0.87, p=10^-9-10^-27) and decreased plasma levels of interferon-alpha/beta receptor 1 that signals through TYK2/JAK1/STAT4.

CONCLUSION

Sequence variants pointing to causal genes in the JAK/STAT pathway have largest effect on seropositive RA, while associations with seronegative RA remain scarce.

Phenotypic Displays of Cholinergic Enzymes Associate With Markers of Inflammation, Neurofibrillary Tangles, and Neurodegeneration in Pre- and Early Symptomatic Dementia Subjects

Background

Cholinergic drugs are the most commonly used drugs for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Therefore, a better understanding of the cholinergic system and its relation to both AD-related biomarkers and cognitive functions is of high importance.

Objectives

To evaluate the relationships of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cholinergic enzymes with markers of amyloidosis, neurodegeneration, neurofibrillary tangles, inflammation and performance on verbal episodic memory in a memory clinic cohort.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, 46 cholinergic drug-free subjects (median age = 71, 54% female, median MMSE = 28) were recruited from an Icelandic memory clinic cohort targeting early stages of cognitive impairment. Enzyme activity of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) was measured in CSF as well as levels of amyloid-β_1–42 (Aβ₄₂), phosphorylated tau (P-tau), total-tau (T-tau), neurofilament light (NFL), YKL-40, S100 calcium-binding protein B (S100B), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). Verbal episodic memory was assessed with the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning (RAVLT) and Story tests.

Results

No significant relationships were found between CSF Aβ₄₂ levels and AChE or BuChE activity (p > 0.05). In contrast, T-tau (r = 0.46, p = 0.001) and P-tau (r = 0.45, p = 0.002) levels correlated significantly with AChE activity. Although neurodegeneration markers T-tau and NFL did correlate with each other (r = 0.59, p < 0.001), NFL did not correlate with AChE (r = 0.25, p = 0.09) or BuChE (r = 0.27, p = 0.06). Inflammation markers S100B and YKL-40 both correlated significantly with AChE (S100B: r = 0.43, p = 0.003; YKL-40: r = 0.32, p = 0.03) and BuChE (S100B: r = 0.47, p < 0.001; YKL-40: r = 0.38, p = 0.009) activity. A weak correlation was detected between AChE activity and the composite score reflecting verbal episodic memory (r = −0.34, p = 0.02). LASSO regression analyses with a stability approach were performed for the selection of a set of measures best predicting cholinergic activity and verbal episodic memory score. S100B was the predictor with the highest model selection frequency for both AChE (68%) and BuChE (73%) activity. Age (91%) was the most reliable predictor for verbal episodic memory, with selection frequency of both cholinergic enzymes below 10%.

Conclusions

Results indicate a relationship between higher activity of the ACh-degrading cholinergic enzymes with increased neurodegeneration, neurofibrillary tangles and inflammation in the stages of pre- and early symptomatic dementia, independent of CSF Aβ₄₂ levels.

Prevalence, clinical characteristics and outcomes of hypoxic hepatitis in critically ill patients

BACKGROUND

Hypoxic hepatitis (HH) is an important clinical entity in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). The aims of the study were to assess the etiology, clinical characteristics and outcomes of HH in the ICU of a tertiary hospital. Secondary aim was to analyze the effects of concomitant ischemia in other organs than the liver.

METHODS

All patients with HH, 2011-2018, in a university hospital ICU were included. Data were collected on etiology, relevant clinical data and outcome. HH was defined by an increase in aminotransferases ≥10 times the upper limit of normal within 48 h from a clinical event of cardiac, circulatory or respiratory failure. Other causes of liver cell necrosis were excluded.

RESULTS

Of 9,931 patients hospitalized in the ICU, 159 (1.6%) fulfilled criteria for HH. In-hospital mortality occurred in 85 (53%) and 60 (38%) survived one year. Median ICU stay was five days (interquartile range (IQR) 3-10) and median hospital stay 16 days (IQR 7-32). Shock (48%), cardiac arrest (25%) and hypoxia (13%) were the most common causes of HH. Acute kidney injury (81%), rhabdomyolysis (50%), intestinal ischemia (6%) and ischemic pancreatitis (3%) occurred concomitantly. Age (odds ratio (OR) 1.05 (95% CI 1.02-1.09)), serum lactate (OR 2.61 (95% CI 1.23-5.50)) and lactate dehydrogenase (OR 1.14 (95% CI 1.02-1.27)) were predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypoxic hepatitis was related to shock in approximately 50% of cases and associated with high in-hospital mortality. HH was commonly associated with ischemia in other organs. In-hospital mortality was associated with age, lactate and LD.

Incidence and risk factors of chronic kidney disease: results of a nationwide study in Iceland

Background

Information on the incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the general population is scarce. This study examined the incidence and risk factors of CKD stages 1–5 in Iceland, based on multiple markers of kidney damage.

Methods

All SCr values, urine protein measurements and diagnosis codes for kidney diseases and comorbid conditions for people aged ≥ 18 years were obtained from electronic medical records of all healthcare institutions in Iceland in 2008–2016. CKD was defined according to the KDIGO criteria as evidence for kidney damage and/or eGFR &lt; 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for &gt; 3 months. Alternatively, CKD was defined using age-adapted eGFR thresholds. Mean annual age-standardized incidence of CKD was calculated for persons without CKD at study entry. Risk factor assessment was based on ICD diagnosis codes. Incidence was reported per 100 000 population.

Results

We retrieved 1 820 990 SCr values for 206 727 persons. Median age was 45 years (range, 18–106) and 47% were men. Mean annual age-standardized incidence of CKD per 100 000 was 649 in men and 694 in women, and 480 in men and 522 in women using age-adapted eGFR thresholds. The incidence reached over 3000 in men and women aged &gt; 75 years. Traditional CKD risk factors, such as acute kidney injury, diabetes, hypertension and cardiovascular disease, as well as less well characterized risk factors, including chronic lung disease, malignancy and major psychiatric illness were associated with increased risk of CKD, and the same was true for obesity and sleep apnea in women.

Conclusion

The annual incidence of CKD, with strict adherence to the KDIGO criteria, was &lt; 0.7% but markedly lower using age-adapted eGFR thresholds. Apart from acute kidney injury, the observed risk factors comprised chronic and potentially modifiable disorders.

Rare SLC13A1 variants associate with intervertebral disc disorder highlighting role of sulfate in disc pathology

Back pain is a common and debilitating disorder with largely unknown underlying biology. Here we report a genome-wide association study of back pain using diagnoses assigned in clinical practice; dorsalgia (119,100 cases, 909,847 controls) and intervertebral disc disorder (IDD) (58,854 cases, 922,958 controls). We identify 41 variants at 33 loci. The most significant association (OR_IDD = 0.92, P = 1.6 × 10⁻³⁹; OR_dorsalgia = 0.92, P = 7.2 × 10⁻¹⁵) is with a 3’UTR variant (rs1871452-T) in CHST3, encoding a sulfotransferase enzyme expressed in intervertebral discs. The largest effects on IDD are conferred by rare (MAF = 0.07 − 0.32%) loss-of-function (LoF) variants in SLC13A1, encoding a sodium-sulfate co-transporter (LoF burden OR = 1.44, P = 3.1 × 10⁻¹¹); variants that also associate with reduced serum sulfate. Genes implicated by this study are involved in cartilage and bone biology, as well as neurological and inflammatory processes.

Little is known about the biology of back pain, a leading cause of disability. Here the authors report 30 new back pain loci, implicating genes involved in cartilage/bone biology, as well as neurological and inflammatory processes.

Genetic variants associated with platelet count are predictive of human disease and physiological markers

Platelets play an important role in hemostasis and other aspects of vascular biology. We conducted a meta-analysis of platelet count GWAS using data on 536,974 Europeans and identified 577 independent associations. To search for mechanisms through which these variants affect platelets, we applied cis-expression quantitative trait locus, DEPICT and IPA analyses and assessed genetic sharing between platelet count and various traits using polygenic risk scoring. We found genetic sharing between platelet count and counts of other blood cells (except red blood cells), in addition to several other quantitative traits, including markers of cardiovascular, liver and kidney functions, height, and weight. Platelet count polygenic risk score was predictive of myeloproliferative neoplasms, rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, hypertension, and benign prostate hyperplasia. Taken together, these results advance understanding of diverse aspects of platelet biology and how they affect biological processes in health and disease.

Evgenia Mikaelsdottir et al. report a study of variants associated with platelet count among European individuals where they identify 577 associations. They also report a genetic overlap between platelet count and human diseases, including myeloproliferative neoplasms, rheumatoid arthritis, and hypertension, as well as a genetic overlap between platelet count and various physiological markers.

Deciphering osteoarthritis genetics across 826,690 individuals from 9 populations

Osteoarthritis affects over 300 million people worldwide. Here, we conduct a genome-wide association study meta-analysis across 826,690 individuals (177,517 with osteoarthritis) and identify 100 independently associated risk variants across 11 osteoarthritis phenotypes, 52 of which have not been associated with the disease before. We report thumb and spine osteoarthritis risk variants and identify differences in genetic effects between weight-bearing and non-weight-bearing joints. We identify sex-specific and early age-at-onset osteoarthritis risk loci. We integrate functional genomics data from primary patient tissues (including articular cartilage, subchondral bone, and osteophytic cartilage) and identify high-confidence effector genes. We provide evidence for genetic correlation with phenotypes related to pain, the main disease symptom, and identify likely causal genes linked to neuronal processes. Our results provide insights into key molecular players in disease processes and highlight attractive drug targets to accelerate translation.

The CRTAC1 protein in plasma associates with osteoarthritis and predicts progression to joint replacements: a large-scale proteomics scan in Iceland

Objective

Biomarkers for diagnosis and progression of osteoarthritis (OA) are lacking. This study was undertaken to identify circulating biomarkers for OA that could predict disease occurrence and/or progression to joint replacement.

Methods

Using the SomaScan platform, we measured 4,792 proteins in plasma from 37,278 individuals, of whom 12,178 individuals had OA and 2,524 had undergone joint replacement. We performed a case–control study for identification of potential protein biomarkers for hip, knee, and/or hand OA, and a prospective study for identification of biomarkers for joint replacement.

Results

Among the large panel of plasma proteins assessed, cartilage acidic protein 1 (CRTAC1) was the most strongly associated with both OA diagnosis (odds ratio 1.46 [95% confidence interval 1.41–1.52] for knee OA, odds ratio 1.36 [95% confidence interval 1.29–1.43] for hip OA, and odds ratio 1.33 [95% confidence interval 1.26–1.40] for hand OA) and progression to joint replacement (hazard ratio 1.40 [95% confidence interval 1.30–1.51] for knee replacement and hazard ratio 1.31 [95% confidence interval 1.19–1.45] for hip replacement). Patients with OA who were in the highest quintile of risk of joint replacement, based on known risk factors (i.e., age, sex, and body mass index) and plasma CRTAC1 level, were 16 times more likely to undergo knee replacement within 5 years of plasma sample collection than those in the lowest quintile, and 6.5 times more likely to undergo hip replacement. CRTAC1 was not associated with other types of inflammatory arthritis. A specific protein profile was identified in those patients who had undergone joint replacement prior to plasma sample collection.

Conclusion

Through a hypothesis‐free approach, we identified CRTAC1 in plasma as a novel promising candidate biomarker for OA that is both associated with occurrence of OA and predictive of progression to joint replacement. This biomarker might also be useful in the selection of suitable patients for clinical trial enrollment.

Cerebrospinal Fluid C18 Ceramide Associates with Markers of Alzheimer's Disease and Inflammation at the Pre- and Early Stages of Dementia

Background:

Understanding how dysregulation in lipid metabolism relates to the severity of Alzheimer‘s disease (AD) pathology might be critical in developing effective treatments.

Objective:

To identify lipid species in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) associated with signature AD pathology and to explore their relationships with measures reflecting AD-related processes (neurodegeneration, inflammation, deficits in verbal episodic memory) among subjects at the pre- and early symptomatic stages of dementia.

Methods:

A total of 60 subjects that had been referred to an Icelandic memory clinic cohort were classified as having CSF AD (n = 34) or non-AD (n = 26) pathology profiles. Untargeted CSF lipidomic analysis was performed using ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS) for the detection of mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) features. CSF proteins reflecting neurodegeneration (neurofilament light [NFL]) and inflammation (chitinase-3-like protein 1 [YKL-40], S100 calcium-binding protein B [S100B], glial fibrillary acidic protein [GFAP]) were also measured. Rey Auditory Verbal Learning (RAVLT) and Story tests were used for the assessment of verbal episodic memory.

Results:

Eight out of 1008 features were identified as best distinguishing between the CSF profile groups. Of those, only the annotation of the m/z feature assigned to lipid species C18 ceramide was confirmed with a high confidence. Multiple regression analyses, adjusted for age, gender, and education, demonstrated significant associations of CSF core AD markers (Aβ₄₂: st.β= –0.36, p = 0.007; T-tau: st.β= 0.41, p = 0.005) and inflammatory marker S100B (st.β= 0.51, p = 0.001) with C18 ceramide levels.

Conclusion:

Higher levels of C18 ceramide associated with increased AD pathology and inflammation, suggesting its potential value as a therapeutic target.

Loss-of-Function Variants in the Tumor-Suppressor Gene PTPN14 Confer Increased Cancer Risk

The success of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in identifying common, low-penetrance variant-cancer associations for the past decade is undisputed. However, discovering additional high-penetrance cancer mutations in unknown cancer predisposing genes requires detection of variant-cancer association of ultra-rare coding variants. Consequently, large-scale next-generation sequence data with associated phenotype information are needed. Here, we used genotype data on 166,281 Icelanders, of which, 49,708 were whole-genome sequenced and 408,595 individuals from the UK Biobank, of which, 41,147 were whole-exome sequenced, to test for association between loss-of-function burden in autosomal genes and basal cell carcinoma (BCC), the most common cancer in Caucasians. A total of 25,205 BCC cases and 683,058 controls were tested. Rare germline loss-of-function variants in PTPN14 conferred substantial risks of BCC (OR, 8.0; P = 1.9 × 10^-12), with a quarter of carriers getting BCC before age 70 and over half in their lifetime. Furthermore, common variants at the PTPN14 locus were associated with BCC, suggesting PTPN14 as a new, high-impact BCC predisposition gene. A follow-up investigation of 24 cancers and three benign tumor types showed that PTPN14 loss-of-function variants are associated with high risk of cervical cancer (OR, 12.7, P = 1.6 × 10^-4) and low age at diagnosis. Our findings, using power-increasing methods with high-quality rare variant genotypes, highlight future prospects for new discoveries on carcinogenesis. SIGNIFICANCE: This study identifies the tumor-suppressor gene PTPN14 as a high-impact BCC predisposition gene and indicates that inactivation of PTPN14 by germline sequence variants may also lead to increased risk of cervical cancer.

A genome-wide meta-analysis yields 46 new loci associating with biomarkers of iron homeostasis

Iron is essential for many biological functions and iron deficiency and overload have major health implications. We performed a meta-analysis of three genome-wide association studies from Iceland, the UK and Denmark of blood levels of ferritin (N = 246,139), total iron binding capacity (N = 135,430), iron (N = 163,511) and transferrin saturation (N = 131,471). We found 62 independent sequence variants associating with iron homeostasis parameters at 56 loci, including 46 novel loci. Variants at DUOX2, F5, SLC11A2 and TMPRSS6 associate with iron deficiency anemia, while variants at TF, HFE, TFR2 and TMPRSS6 associate with iron overload. A HBS1L-MYB intergenic region variant associates both with increased risk of iron overload and reduced risk of iron deficiency anemia. The DUOX2 missense variant is present in 14% of the population, associates with all iron homeostasis biomarkers, and increases the risk of iron deficiency anemia by 29%. The associations implicate proteins contributing to the main physiological processes involved in iron homeostasis: iron sensing and storage, inflammation, absorption of iron from the gut, iron recycling, erythropoiesis and bleeding/menstruation.

Association of glial and neuronal degeneration markers with Alzheimer's disease cerebrospinal fluid profile and cognitive functions

BACKGROUND

Neuroinflammation has gained increasing attention as a potential contributing factor in the onset and progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD). The objective of this study was to examine the association of selected cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) inflammatory and neuronal degeneration markers with signature CSF AD profile and cognitive functions among subjects at the symptomatic pre- and early dementia stages.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, 52 subjects were selected from an Icelandic memory clinic cohort. Subjects were classified as having AD (n = 28, age = 70, 39% female, Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE] = 27) or non-AD (n = 24, age = 67, 33% female, MMSE = 28) profile based on the ratio between CSF total-tau (T-tau) and amyloid-β_1-42 (Aβ₄₂) values (cut-off point chosen as 0.52). Novel CSF biomarkers included neurofilament light (NFL), YKL-40, S100 calcium-binding protein B (S100B) and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), measured with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs). Subjects underwent neuropsychological assessment for evaluation of different cognitive domains, including verbal episodic memory, non-verbal episodic memory, language, processing speed, and executive functions.

RESULTS

Accuracy coefficient for distinguishing between the two CSF profiles was calculated for each CSF marker and test. Novel CSF markers performed poorly (area under curve [AUC] coefficients ranging from 0.61 to 0.64) compared to tests reflecting verbal episodic memory, which all performed fair (AUC > 70). LASSO regression with a stability approach was applied for the selection of CSF markers and demographic variables predicting performance on each cognitive domain, both among all subjects and only those with a CSF AD profile. Relationships between CSF markers and cognitive domains, where the CSF marker reached stability selection criteria of > 75%, were visualized with scatter plots. Before calculations of corresponding Pearson's correlations coefficients, composite scores for cognitive domains were adjusted for age and education. GFAP correlated with executive functions (r = - 0.37, p = 0.01) overall, while GFAP correlated with processing speed (r = - 0.68, p < 0.001) and NFL with verbal episodic memory (r = - 0.43, p = 0.02) among subjects with a CSF AD profile.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel CSF markers NFL and GFAP show potential as markers for cognitive decline among individuals with core AD pathology at the symptomatic pre- and early stages of dementia.

The prevalence of chronic kidney disease in Iceland according to KDIGO criteria and age-adapted estimated glomerular filtration rate thresholds

Most epidemiological studies on chronic kidney disease (CKD) are based solely on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Few studies have included proteinuria, while the chronicity criterion is usually omitted. To explore this, we examined the prevalence of CKD stages 1-5 in Iceland based on multiple markers of kidney damage. All serum creatinine values, urine protein measurements and diagnostic codes for kidney diseases and comorbid conditions for people aged 18 years and older were obtained from electronic medical records of all healthcare institutions in Iceland in 2008-2016. CKD was defined according to the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) clinical practice guideline using diagnoses indicative of a chronic kidney disease, proteinuria and/or an eGFR under 60 mL/min/1.73 m² for over three months. Mean annual age-standardized prevalence of CKD stages 1-5 was calculated based on the KDIGO criteria and age-adapted eGFR thresholds from 2,120,147 creatinine values for 218,437 individuals, 306,531 proteinuria measurements for 86,364 individuals and 6973 individuals carrying a kidney disease diagnosis. Median age was 63 years (range, 18-106) and 47% were male. The mean annual age standardized CKD prevalence was 5.13% for men and 6.75% for women using the KDIGO criteria but by age-adapted eGFR cut-offs, the prevalence was 3.27% for men and 4.01% for women. Thus, our nationwide study, defining CKD in Iceland with strict adherence to the KDIGO criteria, demonstrates a lower prevalence of CKD than anticipated from most previous studies.

Increase in the incidence of alcoholic pancreatitis and alcoholic liver disease in Iceland: impact of per capita alcohol consumption

Objective: To analyze the incidence of acute alcoholic pancreatitis and of severe alcoholic liver disease (ALD) and its association with per capita alcohol consumption with identification of both alcoholic cirrhosis (AC) and severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH), in a population-based setting.Methods: A search was undertaken in diagnoses database for diagnostic codes in order to find patients hospitalized with incident acute alcoholic pancreatitis (AP) and alcoholic liver disease in Iceland in 2001-2015. Diagnoses were verified in all patients who were retrospectively reviewed. Those with ALD had either AC or AH. Alcohol sales during the study period were obtained from Statistics Iceland.Results: Overall, 273 patients with acute AP, mean age at diagnosis 50 (14) years, 74% males and 159 patients with ALD, mean age 57 (11) years, 73% males, were identified. Mean per capita alcohol consumption was 6.95 (0.4) liters and increased by 21% over the study period. The annual incidence of AP increased from 4.2 per 100.000 to 9.5 and ALD from 1.6 to 6.1 per 100.000. Trend analysis showed a significant annual increase of 7% (RR 1.07, 95%CI 1.04-1.10) for AP and an annual increase of 10.5% (RR 1.10, 95%CI 1.06-1.15) for ALD. The increase was only significant in males.Conclusions: Increase per capita alcohol consumption over a 15 year study period was associated with an increase in the incidence of severe alcoholic liver disease and alcohol-related acute pancreatitis in males but not in females.

Abstinence from alcohol and alcohol rehabilitation therapy in alcoholic liver disease: a population-based study

Objective: Abstinence from alcohol is recommended in patients diagnosed with alcoholic hepatitis (AH) and alcoholic cirrhosis (AC). We aimed to determine the impact of alcohol abstinence on prognosis of patients with AC and AH.Methods: All incident AC and AH patients in Iceland 2001-2016 were identified. Cirrhosis was confirmed clinically, biochemically, with imaging and histologically. Abstinence, alcohol rehabilitation and survival were analyzed.Results: Overall, 169 patients with AC and/or AH were identified. Eleven died during index hospitalization, leaving 158 patients for final analysis, median (IQR) age 56 years (48-65), 72% males. Over all 61 patients (39%) had AC, 40 (25%) AH and 57 (36%) features of both. Thirty-nine percent of patients remained abstinent during follow-up and 63% underwent alcohol rehabilitation. Moderate to severe ascites at diagnosis (odds ratio (OR): 3.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.37-7.02) and lack of alcoholic rehabilitation (OR: 5.28, 95% CI: 2.24- 14.11) were independent predictors of abstinence. Abstinence at one year of follow-up was not related to increased survival. Patients surviving one year, abstinence during follow-up was related to increased survival for both groups.Conclusion: Abstinence from alcohol following AC/AH diagnosis was achieved in 39% of patients. Abstinence was not related to increased survival for alcoholic liver disease patients at one-year, which might partly indicate that this might be a marker that some patients were 'too sick to drink'. AC and AH patients who survived one year and remained abstinent had a favorable long-term prognosis.

Genome-wide association identifies seven loci for pelvic organ prolapse in Iceland and the UK Biobank

Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) is a downward descent of one or more of the pelvic organs, resulting in a protrusion of the vaginal wall and/or uterus. We performed a genome-wide association study of POP using data from Iceland and the UK Biobank, a total of 15,010 cases with hospital-based diagnosis code and 340,734 female controls, and found eight sequence variants at seven loci associating with POP (P < 5 × 10-8); seven common (minor allele frequency >5%) and one with minor allele frequency of 4.87%. Some of the variants associating with POP also associated with traits of similar pathophysiology. Of these, rs3820282, which may alter the estrogen-based regulation of WNT4, also associates with leiomyoma of uterus, gestational duration and endometriosis. Rs3791675 at EFEMP1, a gene involved in connective tissue homeostasis, also associates with hernias and carpal tunnel syndrome. Our results highlight the role of connective tissue metabolism and estrogen exposure in the etiology of POP.

Long-term Outcome of Implantable Cardioverter/Defibrillator Lead Failure

This study compares outcomes of a recalled implantable cardioverter/defibrillator lead with a control lead in individuals in Iceland.

High Mortality from Major Vascular Trauma in Traffic Accidents: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Injuries involving major arteries are an important cause of mortality and morbidity, most often from road traffic accidents. Our aim was to study the outcome of major vascular trauma from traffic accidents in an entire population, including patients who die at the scene and those who reach hospital alive.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of all patients who sustained major vascular trauma in traffic accidents in Iceland from 2000 to 2011. Patient demographics, mechanism, and location of vascular injury and treatment were registered. Injury scores were calculated and overall survival estimated.

RESULTS

There were 62 individuals (mean age 44 years, 79% males) with 95 major vascular traumas, giving an incidence of 1.69/100,000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval: 1.27-2.21). A total of 33 died at the scene and 8 during transportation to hospital but 21 (34%) reached hospital alive. Most patients who succumbed had thoracic major vascular traumas (76%) or abdominal major vascular traumas (23%). Mean new injury severity score for the 21 admitted patients was 44. A total of 18 were operated with vascular repair, 3 with endovascular stent graft insertion. The mean hospital stay for discharged patients was 34 days. Altogether, 15 of the 62 patients (24%) survived to discharge from hospital, with a 5-year survival of 86% for discharged patients.

CONCLUSION

Every other patient with major vascular trauma following traffic accidents died at the scene and a further 13% died during transportation to hospital, most of whom sustained major vascular trauma to the thoracic aorta. However, one-third of the patients reached hospital alive and 71% of them survived to discharge, with excellent long-term survival.

GWAS of bone size yields twelve loci that also affect height, BMD, osteoarthritis or fractures

Bone area is one measure of bone size that is easily derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans. In a GWA study of DXA bone area of the hip and lumbar spine (N ≥ 28,954), we find thirteen independent association signals at twelve loci that replicate in samples of European and East Asian descent (N = 13,608 - 21,277). Eight DXA area loci associate with osteoarthritis, including rs143384 in GDF5 and a missense variant in COL11A1 (rs3753841). The strongest DXA area association is with rs11614913[T] in the microRNA MIR196A2 gene that associates with lumbar spine area (P = 2.3 × 10-42, β = -0.090) and confers risk of hip fracture (P = 1.0 × 10-8, OR = 1.11). We demonstrate that the risk allele is less efficient in repressing miR-196a-5p target genes. We also show that the DXA area measure contributes to the risk of hip fracture independent of bone density.

Biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid among PBC patients: a nationwide population-based study

Objective: To assess the proportion of PBC patients with a biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in a population-based cohort and the association of biochemical response with outcomes. Methods: All patients diagnosed with PBC in Iceland from 1991-2015 were identified. Patients taking UDCA for an adequate period of time were analyzed for treatment response according to the Barcelona, Paris I, Paris II and Toronto criteria and outcomes. Results: Overall 182 females and 40 males were diagnosed with PBC and 135 patients were treated with UDCA. Overall 99 (73%) patients had adequate data on UDCA treatment and results of liver tests to assess biochemical response according to the Barcelona criteria, 95 (70%) according to the Toronto criterion and 85 (63%) according to the Paris I and II criteria. In all 74% (n = 63), 67% (n = 64), 54% (n = 53) and 46% (n = 39) responded to treatment according to the Paris I, Toronto, Barcelona and Paris II criteria. Among nonresponders according to the Paris I, Toronto, Paris II and Barcelona criteria, 50%, 39%, 33% and 30% developed cirrhosis versus 10%, 6%, 5% and 11% of responders, HR 5.36 (p = .002), 6.61 (p = .002), 10.94 (p = .003) and 2.21(p = .11), respectively. Age-adjusted mortality was significantly lower among responders according to the Paris I and Paris II criteria, HR 0.33 (p = .02) and 0.31 (p = .02), respectively. Conclusion: Development of cirrhosis and higher mortality was significantly associated with a lack of biochemical response to UDCA. Frequent development of cirrhosis and increased mortality in nonresponders underlines the need for a more effective therapy than UDCA for this sizeable subgroup of patients.

The SHA2PE score: a new score for lower gastrointestinal bleeding that predicts low-risk of hospital-based intervention

OBJECTIVES

Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) risk scores have mainly focused on identifying high-risk patients. A risk score aimed at predicting which patients will not require hospital-based intervention may reduce unnecessary hospital admissions. The aim of the current study was to develop such a risk score.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A retrospective, population-based study that included patients presenting to the emergency room (ER) with LGIB from 2010 to 2013. Hospital-based intervention was defined as blood transfusion, endoscopic hemostasis, arterial embolization or surgery. The study cohort was split into train (70%) and test (30%) data. Train data were used to produce a multiple logistic regression model and a risk score that was validated on the test data.

RESULTS

Overall, 581 patients presented 625 times to the ER, mean age 61 (±22), males 49%. Of train data patients, 72% did not require hospital-based intervention. Independent predictors of low-risk patients (did not require hospital-based intervention) were systolic pressure ≥100mmHg (Odds ratio [OR] 4.9), hemoglobin >12g/dL (OR 103), hemoglobin 10.5-12.0g/dL (OR 19), no antiplatelets (OR 3.7), no anticoagulants (OR 2.2), pulse ≤100 (OR 2.9), and visible bleeding in the ER (OR 3.8). When validating the score on the test data, only 2% were wrongly predicted to be low-risk, the negative predictive value was 96% and the area under curve was 0.83.

CONCLUSIONS

A new risk score has been developed for LGIB that may help identify low-risk patients in the ER that can be managed in an outpatient setting, thereby lowering unnecessary hospital admissions.

Dietary intake is associated with risk of multiple myeloma and its precursor disease

The etiology of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), the precursor state of multiple myeloma (MM), is mostly unknown and no studies have been conducted on the effect of diet on MGUS or progression from MGUS to MM. We aimed to explore the association between common foods and MGUS and progression to MM. Data from the population-based AGES Study (N = 5,764) were utilized. Food frequency questionnaire was used to assess dietary intake during adolescence, midlife, and late life. Serum protein electrophoresis and serum free light-chain assay was performed to identify MGUS (n = 300) and LC-MGUS cases (n = 275). We cross linked our data with the Icelandic Cancer Registry to find cases of MM in the study group. We found that intake of fruit at least three times per week during adolescence was associated with lower risk of MGUS when compared to lower fruit consumption (OR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.41–0.95). We additionally found that intake of fruit at least three times per week during the late life period was associated with decreased risk of progressing from MGUS to MM (HR = 0.34, 95% CI 0.13–0.89) when compared to lower intake. Adolescent intake of fruit may reduce risk of MGUS, whereas fruit intake after MGUS onset may reduce risk of progressing to MM. Our findings suggest that diet might alter the risk of developing MGUS and progression to MM.

Physical activity may decrease the likelihood of children developing constipation

AIM

Childhood constipation is common. We evaluated children diagnosed with constipation, who were referred to an Icelandic paediatric emergency department, and determined the effect of lifestyle factors on its aetiology.

METHODS

The parents of children who were diagnosed with constipation and participated in a phase IIB clinical trial on laxative suppositories answered an online questionnaire about their children's lifestyle and constipation in March-April 2013. The parents of nonconstipated children that visited the paediatric department of Landspitali University Hospital or an Icelandic outpatient clinic answered the same questionnaire.

RESULTS

We analysed responses regarding 190 children aged one year to 18 years: 60 with constipation and 130 without. We found that 40% of the constipated children had recurrent symptoms, 27% had to seek medical attention more than once and 33% received medication per rectum. The 47 of 130 control group subjects aged 10-18 were much more likely to exercise more than three times a week (72%) and for more than a hour (62%) than the 26 of 60 constipated children of the same age (42% and 35%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Constipation risk factors varied with age and many children diagnosed with constipation had recurrent symptoms. Physical activity may affect the likelihood of developing constipation in older children.

Reduced anticoagulation variability in patients on warfarin monitored with Fiix-prothrombin time associates with reduced thromboembolism: The Fiix-trial

Fiix-prothrombin time (Fiix-PT) differs from traditional PT in being affected by reduced factor (F) II or FX only. In the randomized controlled Fiix-trial, patients on warfarin monitored with Fiix-PT (Fiix-warfarin patients) had fewer thromboembolisms (TE), similar major bleeding (MB) and more stable anticoagulation than patients monitored with PT (PT-warfarin patients). In the current Fiix-trial report we analyzed how reduced anticoagulation variability during Fiix-PT monitoring was reflected in patients with TE or bleeding. Data from 1143 randomized patients was used. We analyzed the groups for anticoagulation intensity (time within target range; TTR), international normalized ratio (INR) variability (variance growth rate B₁; VGR) and dose adjustment frequency. We assessed how these parameters associated with clinically relevant vascular events (CRVE), ie TE or MB or clinically relevant non-MB. TTR was highest in Fiix-warfarin patients without CRVE (median 82%;IQR 72-91) and lowest in PT-warfarin patients with TE (62%;56-81). VGR was lowest in Fiix-warfarin patients without CRVE (median VGR B₁ 0.17; 95% CI 0.08-0.38) and with TE (0.20;0.07-0.26) and highest in PT-warfarin patients with TE (0.50;0.27-0.90) or MB (0.59;0.07-1.36). The mean annual dose adjustment frequency was lowest in Fiix-warfarin patients with TE (mean 5.4;95% CI 3.9-7.3) and without CRVE (mean 6.0; 5.8-6.2) and highest in PT-warfarin patients with TE (14.2;12.2-16.3). Frequent dose changes predicted MB in both study arms. Compared to patients monitored with PT, high anticoagulation stability in Fiix-warfarin patients coincided with their low TE rate. Those with bleeding had high variability irrespective of monitoring method. Thus, although further improvements are needed to reduce bleeding, stabilization of anticoagulation by Fiix-PT monitoring associates with reduced TE.

Fiix-prothrombin time monitoring improves warfarin anticoagulation outcome in atrial fibrillation: a systematic review of randomized trials comparing Fiix-warfarin or direct oral anticoagulants to standard PT-warfarin

BACKGROUND

Monitoring warfarin with Fiix-prothrombin time (Fiix-PT), which is only affected by coagulation factors II and X, stabilizes anticoagulation and reduces thromboembolism compared to PT/INR monitoring. We compared outcome in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients treated with Fiix-warfarin, direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), or PT-warfarin.

METHODS

A systematic efficacy and safety assessment by retrieving data from the Fiix trial and the four major phase III DOAC trials in NVAF. Prespecified outcomes included stroke and systemic embolism (SSE), SSE and myocardial infarction (MI), major bleeding (MB), composite major vascular events (SSEMI and MB; CMVE), and deaths. We calculated relative risk, 95% CI, and 95% confidence limits (CL) for each outcome and performed meta-analysis using fixed- and random-effects modeling.

RESULTS

There were 613 and 628 observation years with Fiix-warfarin and PT-warfarin in the Fiix trial, and 70 628 and 57 962 with DOACs and PT-warfarin in DOAC trials. Populations were comparable although death rates were lower in the Fiix trial. Compared to pooled PT-warfarin, Fiix-warfarin reduced SSE (RR 0.54;95% CI 0.26-1.10/95% CL <1.00), SSEMI (0.51;0.26-0.99/<0.90), MB (RR 0.63;0.37-1.07/<0.99), and CMVE (RR 0.66;0.43-1.00/<0.94). Vascular death was lower (RR 0.13;0.04-0.47/<0.42). Compared to pooled DOACs, Fiix-warfarin consistently had lower point estimates for the RR for efficacy and safety, but only significant for lower death rates (vascular death RR 0.14;0.04-0.49/<0.43). Meta-analysis comparing Fiix-warfarin and DOACs with PT-warfarin consistently found Fiix-warfarin to have the lowest point estimates for efficacy.

CONCLUSION

Monitoring warfarin with Fiix-PT reduces risk of vascular events in NVAF patients as much as DOACs. Warfarin monitored with Fiix-PT is an improved anticoagulant.

Regional differences in mortality, hospital discharges and primary care contacts for cardiovascular disease

Aims: Surveillance of geographical variations in cardiovascular health is important in order to achieve the objectives of reducing regional health disparities. We aimed to explore differences in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and prevalence of CVD diagnoses made in primary and in-patient care, as well as risk factor distribution by geographic regions (urban/rural) in Iceland. Methods: From nationwide health registers, we obtained data on CVD mortalities ( N = 7113), primary healthcare CVD contacts ( N = 58,246) and hospital CVD discharges ( N = 14,039), as well as data on CVD risk factors from a national health survey ( N = 5909; response rate 60.3%). Age-standardised annual mortality, primary healthcare contact and hospital discharge rates due to CVD were calculated per 100,000 population inside (urban) and outside (rural) the Capital Area (CA). Logistic regression was used to explore regional differences in CVD risk factors. Results: We observed slightly higher total CVD mortality rates among women outside compared to inside the CA (Standardised Rate Ratio (SRR) 1.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05–1.07)), particularly due to atrial fibrillation (SRR 1.47 (95% CI 1.46–1.48)), heart failure (SRR 1.29 (95% CI 1.27–1.31)) and ischemic heart disease (SRR 1.11 (95% CI 1.10–1.12)), while reduced mortality risk for cerebrovascular disease (SRR 0.81 (95% CI 0.80–0.83)). The rates of hospital discharges and primary care contacts for these diseases, as well as prevalence of several modifiable risk factors, were generally higher outside the CA, particularly among women. Conclusions:The higher prevalence of modifiable risk factors and CVD in rural areas, especially among women, calls for refined treatment and health-promoting efforts in rural areas.

Individualised risk assessment for diabetic retinopathy and optimisation of screening intervals: a scientific approach to reducing healthcare costs

Objective

To validate a mathematical algorithm that calculates risk of diabetic retinopathy progression in a diabetic population with UK staging (R0–3; M1) of diabetic retinopathy. To establish the utility of the algorithm to reduce screening frequency in this cohort, while maintaining safety standards.

Research design and methods

The cohort of 9690 diabetic individuals in England, followed for 2 years. The algorithms calculated individual risk for development of preproliferative retinopathy (R2), active proliferative retinopathy (R3A) and diabetic maculopathy (M1) based on clinical data. Screening intervals were determined such that the increase in risk of developing certain stages of retinopathy between screenings was the same for all patients and identical to mean risk in fixed annual screening. Receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn and area under the curve calculated to estimate the prediction capability.

Results

The algorithm predicts the occurrence of the given diabetic retinopathy stages with area under the curve =80% for patients with type II diabetes (CI 0.78 to 0.81). Of the cohort 64% is at less than 5% risk of progression to R2, R3A or M1 within 2 years. By applying a 2 year ceiling to the screening interval, patients with type II diabetes are screened on average every 20 months, which is a 40% reduction in frequency compared with annual screening.

Conclusions

The algorithm reliably identifies patients at high risk of developing advanced stages of diabetic retinopathy, including preproliferative R2, active proliferative R3A and maculopathy M1. Majority of patients have less than 5% risk of progression between stages within a year and a small high-risk group is identified. Screening visit frequency and presumably costs in a diabetic retinopathy screening system can be reduced by 40% by using a 2 year ceiling. Individualised risk assessment with 2 year ceiling on screening intervals may be a pragmatic next step in diabetic retinopathy screening in UK, in that safety is maximised and cost reduced by about 40%.

Long-term follow-up and liver-related death rate in patients with non-alcoholic and alcoholic related fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Few studies have compared the prognosis and liver-related mortality in patients with NAFLD (nonalcoholic fatty liver disease) and AFLD (alcoholic fatty liver disease). We aimed to investigate the etiology and liver-related mortality of patients with liver biopsy verified fatty liver disease in a population based setting.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, all patients who underwent a liver biopsy 1984-2009 at the National University Hospital of Iceland were identified through a computerized pathological database with the code for fatty liver. Only patients with NAFLD and AFLD were included and medical records reviewed. The patients were linked to the Hospital Discharge Register, the Causes of Death Registry and Centre for Addiction Medicine.

RESULTS

A total of 151 had NAFLD and 94 AFLD with median survival of 24 years and 20 years, respectively (p = NS). A total of 10/151 (7%) patients developed cirrhosis in the NAFLD group and 19/94 (20%) in AFLD group (p = 0.03). The most common cause of death in the NAFLD group was cardiovascular disease (48%). Liver disease was the most common cause of death in the AFLD group (36%), whereas liver-related death occurred in 7% of the NAFLD group. The mean liver-related death rate among the general population during the study period was 0.1% of all deaths. There was a significantly worse survival for patients in the AFLD group compared to the NAFLD group after adjusting for gender, calendar year of diagnosis and age at diagnosis (HR 2.16, p = 0.009). The survival for patients with moderate to severe fibrosis was significantly worse than for patients with mild fibrosis after adjusting for gender, calendar year of diagnosis and age at diagnosis (HR 2.09, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with fatty liver disease showed a markedly higher risk of developing liver-related death compared to the general population. The AFLD group had higher liver-related mortality and had a worse survival than the NAFLD group. Patients with more severe fibrosis at baseline showed a worse survival than patients with none or mild fibrosis at baseline.

Measurement of goal attainment in clinical and health care programs

Goal attainment scaling (GAS) is a method of measurement that attempts to tailor measures to the relevant and often unique characteristics of an event, individual, program, or organization. The general approach is common in industry, management, service delivery, and most forms of contractual arrangements or agreements. GAS has quantification characteristics that make it useful in a variety of research and management areas, and it is popularly used as a clinical and educational facilitator. This article describes the method within a recent historical context, relating the method to current thinking and problems in evaluation, and attempts to make the method accessible to potential users. Special emphasis is placed on the use of analyses that assess readiness to change or adopt new practices.