Synchrony of Bird Migration with Global Dispersal of Avian Influenza Reveals Exposed Bird Orders

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) A H5, particularly clade 2.3.4.4, has caused worldwide outbreaks in domestic poultry, occasional spillover to humans, and increasing deaths of diverse species of wild birds since 2014. Wild bird migration is currently acknowledged as an important ecological process contributing to the global dispersal of HPAIV H5. However, this mechanism has not been quantified using bird movement data from different species, and the timing and location of exposure of different species is unclear. We sought to explore these questions through phylodynamic analyses based on empirical data of bird movement tracking and virus genome sequences of clade 2.3.4.4 and 2.3.2.1. First, we demonstrate that seasonal bird migration can explain salient features of the global dispersal of clade 2.3.4.4. Second, we detect synchrony between the seasonality of bird annual cycle phases and virus lineage movements. We reveal the differing exposed bird orders at geographical origins and destinations of HPAIV H5 clade 2.3.4.4 lineage movements, including relatively under-discussed orders. Our study provides a phylodynamic framework that links the bird movement ecology and genomic epidemiology of avian influenza; it highlights the importance of integrating bird behavior and life history in avian influenza studies.

Trends of Diversity in Neuroradiology Trainees in United States 2015-2022

Radiology has historically not been a very diverse field. Many steps have been taken in the past decade to increase diversity in the field and make it more inclusive. This study shows the relative trends specifically in neuroradiology trainees, and the need for reassessment and further steps to increase diversity.

Convergent trends and spatiotemporal patterns of Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico and Central America

BACKGROUND

Aedes-borne arboviruses cause both seasonal epidemics and emerging outbreaks with a significant impact on global health. These viruses share mosquito vector species, often infecting the same host population within overlapping geographic regions. Thus, comparative analyses of the virus evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics across spatial and temporal scales could reveal convergent trends.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Focusing on Mexico as a case study, we generated novel chikungunya and dengue (CHIKV, DENV-1 and DENV-2) virus genomes from an epidemiological surveillance-derived historical sample collection, and analysed them together with longitudinally-collected genome and epidemiological data from the Americas. Aedes-borne arboviruses endemically circulating within the country were found to be introduced multiple times from lineages predominantly sampled from the Caribbean and Central America. For CHIKV, at least thirteen introductions were inferred over a year, with six of these leading to persistent transmission chains. For both DENV-1 and DENV-2, at least seven introductions were inferred over a decade.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results suggest that CHIKV, DENV-1 and DENV-2 in Mexico share evolutionary and epidemiological trajectories. The southwest region of the country was determined to be the most likely location for viral introductions from abroad, with a subsequent spread into the Pacific coast towards the north of Mexico. Virus diffusion patterns observed across the country are likely driven by multiple factors, including mobility linked to human migration from Central towards North America. Considering Mexico's geographic positioning displaying a high human mobility across borders, our results prompt the need to better understand the role of anthropogenic factors in the transmission dynamics of Aedes-borne arboviruses, particularly linked to land-based human migration.

Genomic assessment of invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) now arise in the context of heterogeneous human connectivity and population immunity. Through a large-scale phylodynamic analysis of 115,622 Omicron BA.1 genomes, we identified >6,000 introductions of the antigenically distinct VOC into England and analyzed their local transmission and dispersal history. We find that six of the eight largest English Omicron lineages were already transmitting when Omicron was first reported in southern Africa (22 November 2021). Multiple datasets show that importation of Omicron continued despite subsequent restrictions on travel from southern Africa as a result of export from well-connected secondary locations. Initiation and dispersal of Omicron transmission lineages in England was a two-stage process that can be explained by models of the country's human geography and hierarchical travel network. Our results enable a comparison of the processes that drive the invasion of Omicron and other VOCs across multiple spatial scales.

Malpractice Litigation Related to Diagnosis and Treatment of Intracranial Aneurysms

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Approaches to management of intracranial aneurysms are inconsistent, in part due to apprehension relating to potential malpractice claims. The purpose of this article was to review the causes of action underlying medical malpractice lawsuits related to the diagnosis and management of intracranial aneurysms and to identify the factors associated and their outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We consulted 2 large legal databases in the United States to search for cases in which there were jury awards and settlements related to the diagnosis and management of patients with intracranial aneurysms in the United States. Files were screened to include only those cases in which the cause of action involved negligence in the diagnosis and management of a patient with an intracranial aneurysm.

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2020, two hundred eighty-seven published case summaries were identified, of which 133 were eligible for inclusion in the analysis. Radiologists constituted 16% of 159 physicians sued in these lawsuits. Failure to diagnose was the most common medical malpractice claim referenced (100/133 cases), with the most common subgroups being "failure to include cerebral aneurysm as a differential and thus perform adequate work-up" (30 cases), and "failure to correctly interpret aneurysm evidence on CT or MR imaging" (16 cases). Only 6 of these 16 cases were adjudicated at trial, with 2 decided in favor of the plaintiff (awarded $4,000,000 and $43,000,000, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Incorrect interpretation of imaging is relatively infrequent as a cause of malpractice litigation compared with failure to diagnose aneurysms in the clinical setting by neurosurgeons, emergency physicians, and primary care providers.

Evaluating instrumental learning and striatal-cortical functional connectivity in adolescent alcohol and cannabis use

Adolescence is a vulnerable time for the acquisition of substance use disorders, potentially relating to ongoing development of neural circuits supporting instrumental learning. Striatal-cortical circuits undergo dynamic changes during instrumental learning and are implicated in contemporary addiction theory. Human studies have not yet investigated these dynamic changes in relation to adolescent substance use. Here, functional magnetic resonance imaging was used while 135 adolescents without (AUD-CUDLow ) and with significant alcohol (AUDHigh ) or cannabis use disorder symptoms (CUDHigh ) performed an instrumental learning task. We assessed how cumulative experience with instrumental cues altered cue selection preferences and functional connectivity strength between reward-sensitive striatal and cortical regions. Adolescents in AUDHigh and CUDHigh groups were slower in learning to select optimal instrumental cues relative to AUD-CUDLow adolescents. The relatively fast learning observed for AUD-CUDLow adolescents coincided with stronger functional connectivity between striatal and frontoparietal regions during early relative to later periods of task experience, whereas the slower learning for the CUDHigh group coincided with the opposite pattern. The AUDHigh group not only exhibited slower learning but also produced more instrumental choice errors relative to AUD-CUDLow adolescents. For the AUDHigh group, Bayesian analyses evidenced moderate support for no experience-related changes in striatal-frontoparietal connectivity strength during the task. Findings suggest that adolescent cannabis use is related to slowed instrumental learning and delays in peak functional connectivity strength between the striatal-frontoparietal regions that support this learning, whereas adolescent alcohol use may be more closely linked to broader impairments in instrumental learning and a general depression of the neural circuits supporting it.

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (Pango lineage B.1.617.2) variant of concern spread globally, causing resurgences of COVID-19 worldwide1,2. The emergence of the Delta variant in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from England together with 93,649 genomes from the rest of the world to reconstruct the emergence of Delta and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Using analysis of human movement, contact tracing and virus genomic data, we find that the geographic focus of the expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced more than 1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers reduced onward transmission from importations; however, the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England were seeded before travel restrictions were introduced. Increasing inter-regional travel within England drove the nationwide dissemination of Delta, with some cities receiving more than 2,000 observable lineage introductions from elsewhere. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing-and not the number of importations-were associated with the faster relative spread of Delta. The invasion dynamics of Delta depended on spatial heterogeneity in contact patterns, and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce the transmission of current and future variants of concern, such as Omicron (Pango lineage B.1.1.529).

Learning transmission dynamics modelling of COVID-19 using comomodels

The COVID-19 epidemic continues to rage in many parts of the world. In the UK alone, an array of mathematical models have played a prominent role in guiding policymaking. Whilst considerable pedagogical material exists for understanding the basics of transmission dynamics modelling, there is a substantial gap between the relatively simple models used for exposition of the theory and those used in practice to model the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Understanding these models requires considerable prerequisite knowledge and presents challenges to those new to the field of epidemiological modelling. In this paper, we introduce an open-source R package, comomodels, which can be used to understand the complexities of modelling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 through a series of differential equation models. Alongside the base package, we describe a host of learning resources, including detailed tutorials and an interactive web-based interface allowing dynamic investigation of the model properties. We then use comomodels to illustrate three key lessons in the transmission of COVID-19 within R Markdown vignettes.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Differential associations of conduct disorder, callous-unemotional traits and irritability with outcome expectations and values regarding the consequences of aggression

BACKGROUND

Previous work has examined the association of aggression levels and callous-unemotional traits with outcome expectations and values regarding the consequences of aggression. Less work has examined the outcome expectations and values regarding the consequences of aggression of adolescents with Conduct Disorder (CD). Also, no studies have examined links between irritability (a second socio-affective trait associated with CD) and these social cognitive processes despite the core function of anger in retaliatory aggression and establishing dominance.

METHOD

The current study, investigating these issues, involved 193 adolescents (typically developing [TD; N = 106], 87 cases with CD [N = 87]). Participants completed an adaptation of the Outcomes Expectations and Values Questionnaire and were assessed for CU traits and irritability via the Inventory of Callous-Unemotional traits and the Affective Reactivity Index.

RESULTS

While CD was associated with atypical outcome expectations this was not seen within statistical models including CU traits and irritability. CU traits were associated with decreased expectation that aggression would result in feelings of remorse and victim suffering, as well as decreased concern that aggressive acts would result in punishment and victim suffering. Irritability was associated with increased expectations and concern that aggression would result in dominance and forced respect.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that CU traits and irritability, often present in youth with CD, are associated with different forms of maladaptive outcome expectations and values regarding the consequences of aggression. This suggests that the atypical social cognitive processes underlying aggressive behavior among youth exhibiting CU traits may differ from those exhibiting problems regulating anger.

Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS

To study the trade-off between economic, social and health outcomes in the management of a pandemic, DAEDALUS integrates a dynamic epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a multi-sector economic model, reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and complex supply chains. The model identifies mitigation strategies that optimize economic production while constraining infections so that hospital capacity is not exceeded but allowing essential services, including much of the education sector, to remain active. The model differentiates closures by economic sector, keeping those sectors open that contribute little to transmission but much to economic output and those that produce essential services as intermediate or final consumption products. In an illustrative application to 63 sectors in the United Kingdom, the model achieves an economic gain of between £161 billion (24%) and £193 billion (29%) compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activities over six months. Although it has been designed for SARS-CoV-2, DAEDALUS is sufficiently flexible to be applicable to pandemics with different epidemiological characteristics.

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

The Delta variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally causing large outbreaks and resurgences of COVID-19 cases 1-3 . The emergence of Delta in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions 4,5 . Here we analyse 52,992 Delta genomes from England in combination with 93,649 global genomes to reconstruct the emergence of Delta, and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England, in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Through analysis of human movement, contact tracing, and virus genomic data, we find that the focus of geographic expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced >1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers from India reduced onward transmission from importations; however the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England had been already seeded before restrictions were introduced. In England, increasing inter-regional travel drove Delta's nationwide dissemination, with some cities receiving >2,000 observable lineage introductions from other regions. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing, not the number of importations, was associated with faster relative growth of Delta. Among US states, we find that regions that previously experienced large waves also had faster Delta growth rates, and a model including interactions between immunity and human behaviour could accurately predict the rise of Delta there. Delta's invasion dynamics depended on fine scale spatial heterogeneity in immunity and contact patterns and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce transmission of current and future VOCs such as Omicron.

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

The Delta variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally causing large outbreaks and resurgences of COVID-19 cases. The emergence of Delta in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 Delta genomes from England in combination with 93,649 global genomes to reconstruct the emergence of Delta, and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England, in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Through analysis of human movement, contact tracing, and virus genomic data, we find that the focus of geographic expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced >1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers from India reduced onward transmission from importations; however the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England had been already seeded before restrictions were introduced. In England, increasing inter-regional travel drove Delta's nationwide dissemination, with some cities receiving >2,000 observable lineage introductions from other regions. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing, not the number of importations, was associated with faster relative growth of Delta. Among US states, we find that regions that previously experienced large waves also had faster Delta growth rates, and a model including interactions between immunity and human behaviour could accurately predict the rise of Delta there. Delta’s invasion dynamics depended on fine scale spatial heterogeneity in immunity and contact patterns and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce transmission of current and future VOCs such as Omicron.

Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

HIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative level. We developed a Bayesian small-area estimation model, called Naomi, to estimate these quantities stratified by subnational administrative units, sex, and five-year age groups.

METHODS

Small-area regressions for HIV prevalence, ART coverage and HIV incidence were jointly calibrated using subnational household survey data on all three indicators, routine antenatal service delivery data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage among pregnant women, and service delivery data on the number of PLHIV receiving ART. Incidence was modelled by district-level HIV prevalence and ART coverage. Model outputs of counts and rates for each indicator were aggregated to multiple geographic and demographic stratifications of interest. The model was estimated in an empirical Bayes framework, furnishing probabilistic uncertainty ranges for all output indicators. Example results were presented using data from Malawi during 2016-2018.

RESULTS

Adult HIV prevalence in September 2018 ranged from 3.2% to 17.1% across Malawi's districts and was higher in southern districts and in metropolitan areas. ART coverage was more homogenous, ranging from 75% to 82%. The largest number of PLHIV was among ages 35 to 39 for both women and men, while the most untreated PLHIV were among ages 25 to 29 for women and 30 to 34 for men. Relative uncertainty was larger for the untreated PLHIV than the number on ART or total PLHIV. Among clients receiving ART at facilities in Lilongwe city, an estimated 71% (95% CI, 61% to 79%) resided in Lilongwe city, 20% (14% to 27%) in Lilongwe district outside the metropolis, and 9% (6% to 12%) in neighbouring Dowa district. Thirty-eight percent (26% to 50%) of Lilongwe rural residents and 39% (27% to 50%) of Dowa residents received treatment at facilities in Lilongwe city.

CONCLUSIONS

The Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data.

Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence

Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.

Deworming women of reproductive age during adolescence and pregnancy: what is the impact on morbidity from soil-transmitted helminths infection?

Background

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a major cause of poor health in low- and middle-income countries. In particular, hookworm is known to cause anaemia in children and women of reproductive age (WRA). One goal of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2030 roadmap for neglected tropical diseases is to reduce STH-related morbidity in WRA. As a minimal intervention, the WHO recommends deworming adolescent girls annually during human papilloma virus vaccination programmes and WRA during pregnancy and lactation. These routine interventions are low cost and can be implemented even by the most basic health services in endemic countries. In this study we use a cohort model to investigate the potential impact on STH-related morbidity in WRA.

Results

Annual deworming treatment of adolescent girls reduces the prevalence of moderate- and heavy-intensity infections in this age group by up to 60% in moderate transmission settings and by 12–27% in high transmission settings. Treatment of WRA during pregnancy and lactation on its own has a small (< 20%) but significant effect on morbidity although it does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target (< 2% moderate- to high-intensity infections) in this age group. However, depending on the age-intensity profile of infection, which may vary geographically, and assumptions on the density-dependence of egg production by fertilised female worms, continued school-based treatment may be able to reduce the force of infection acting on WRA, both through an indirect effect on the overall population-based force of infection and via reducing the burden of infection as children age and move into the WRA age classes. As a result, morbidity in WRA may be eliminated.

Conclusion

While deworming during pregnancy and lactation does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target in WRA and its efficacy may vary by setting, it is still expected to be beneficial for maternity and child health. Monitoring of any WRA-based intervention is recommended to evaluate its effectiveness.

Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related control programme interruptions on progress towards the WHO 2030 target for soil-transmitted helminths

Background

On 1 April 2020, the WHO recommended an interruption of all activities for the control of neglected tropical diseases, including soil-transmitted helminths (STH), in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper investigates the impact of this disruption on the progress towards the WHO 2030 target for STH.

Methods

We used two stochastic individual-based models to simulate the impact of missing one or more preventive chemotherapy (PC) rounds in different endemicity settings. We also investigated the extent to which this impact can be lessened by mitigation strategies, such as semiannual or community-wide PC.

Results

Both models show that without a mitigation strategy, control programmes will catch up by 2030, assuming that coverage is maintained. The catch-up time can be up to 4.5 y after the start of the interruption. Mitigation strategies may reduce this time by up to 2 y and increase the probability of achieving the 2030 target.

Conclusions

Although a PC interruption will only temporarily impact the progress towards the WHO 2030 target, programmes are encouraged to restart as soon as possible to minimise the impact on morbidity. The implementation of suitable mitigation strategies can turn the interruption into an opportunity to accelerate progress towards reaching the target.

Physician Health in the Times of COVID-19

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

A virtual registry study evaluating real world evidence on physicians' use of prophylactic regimens for protection against SARS-CoV-2. This paper summarizes the interim results.

METHODS

Asymptomatic physicians at risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 responded to online questions at baseline and 7 weeks post-baseline. Baseline data included demographics, prophylaxis regimen (including "no prophylaxis") and start date. Participants who provided complete week-7 data (information on type of health facility [COVID/Non-COVID], number of presumed/confirmed cases exposed to, PPE use, SARS-CoV-2 testing and symptoms, regimen adherence and intercurrent illness) comprised the Completer population. Limited data (regimen adherence, SARS-CoV-2 testing) was collected for participants who failed to provide complete week7 data. Those providing limited/complete information comprised the Evaluable population.

RESULTS

Of 369 enrolled participants, 182 (mean age 42±11.05 years) comprised the Evaluable population. They showed a male preponderance (67.6%). Practitioners from Maharashtra (59.9%) and specialties of Pediatrics, Internal Medicine, Anesthesiology and Critical Care (63.2%) accounted for the majority. ICMR's HCQ prophylaxis regimen was initiated by 125 (68.7%) participants with 31 (17%) initiating 'No prophylaxis'. The highest adherence was for the ICMRregimen (87.2%). In the Completer population comprising 150 participants, 87 were exposed to presumed (81) and/or confirmed cases (60). Most exposures to confirmed cases (49, 81.7%) were high-risk. PPE use was generally high (75-100%). Most participants (94.7%) did not report an AE. The proportions with an AE was similar with ICMR regimen (5.9%) and no prophylaxis (6.5%).

INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS

Physicians in India preferred ICMR's HCQ regimen. The regimen appears to be safe and associated with a high level of adherence.

Fixed-dose combination in management of type 2 diabetes mellitus: Expert opinion from an international panel

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a progressive disease with multifactorial etiology. The first-line therapy includes monotherapy (with metformin), which often fails to provide effective glycemic control, necessitating the addition of add-on therapy. In this regard, multiple single-dose agents formulated as a single-dose form called fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) have been evaluated for their safety, efficacy, and tolerability. The primary objective of this review is to develop practice-based expert group opinion on the current status and the causes of concern regarding the irrational use of FDCs, in Indian settings. After due discussions, the expert group analyzed the results from several clinical evidence in which various fixed combinations were used in T2DM management. The panel opined that FDCs (double or triple) improve patient adherence, reduce cost, and provide effective glycemic control and, thereby, play an important role in the management of T2DM. The expert group strongly recommended that the irrational metformin FDC's, banned by Indian government, should be stopped and could be achieved through active participation from the government, regulatory bodies, and health ministry, and through continuous education of primary care physicians and pharmacists. In T2DM management, FDCs play a crucial role in achieving glycemic targets effectively. However, understanding the difference between rational and irrational FDC combinations is necessary from the safety, efficacy, and tolerability perspective. In this regard, primary care physicians will have to use a multistep approach so that they can take informed decisions.

Association of TDP-43 proteinopathy, cerebral amyloid angiopathy, and Lewy bodies with cognitive impairment in individuals with or without Alzheimer's disease neuropathology

Alzheimer's disease patients typically present with multiple co-morbid neuropathologies at autopsy, but the impact of these pathologies on cognitive impairment during life is poorly understood. In this study, we developed cognitive trajectories for patients with common co-pathologies in the presence and absence of Alzheimer's disease neuropathology. Cognitive trajectories were modelled in a Bayesian hierarchical regression framework to estimate the effects of each neuropathology on cognitive decline as assessed by the mini-mental state examination and the clinical dementia rating scale sum of boxes scores. We show that both TDP-43 proteinopathy and cerebral amyloid angiopathy associate with cognitive impairment of similar magnitude to that associated with Alzheimer's disease neuropathology. Within our study population, 63% of individuals given the 'gold-standard' neuropathological diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease in fact possessed either TDP-43 proteinopathy or cerebral amyloid angiopathy of sufficient severity to independently explain the majority of their cognitive impairment. This suggests that many individuals diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease may actually suffer from a mixed dementia, and therapeutics targeting only Alzheimer's disease-related processes may have severely limited efficacy in these co-morbid populations.

The dynamics of biomarkers across the clinical spectrum of Alzheimer's disease

Background

Quantifying changes in the levels of biological and cognitive markers prior to the clinical presentation of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) will provide a template for understanding the underlying aetiology of the clinical syndrome and, concomitantly, for improving early diagnosis, clinical trial recruitment and treatment assessment. This study aims to characterise continuous changes of such markers and determine their rate of change and temporal order throughout the AD continuum.

Methods

The methodology is founded on the development of stochastic models to estimate the expected time to reach different clinical disease states, for different risk groups, and synchronise short-term individual biomarker data onto a disease progression timeline. Twenty-seven markers are considered, including a range of cognitive scores, cerebrospinal (CSF) and plasma fluid proteins, and brain structural and molecular imaging measures. Data from 2014 participants in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database is utilised.

Results

The model suggests that detectable memory dysfunction could occur up to three decades prior to the onset of dementia due to AD (ADem). This is closely followed by changes in amyloid-β CSF levels and the first cognitive decline, as assessed by sensitive measures. Hippocampal atrophy could be observed as early as the initial amyloid-β accumulation. Brain hypometabolism starts later, about 14 years before onset, along with changes in the levels of total and phosphorylated tau proteins. Loss of functional abilities occurs rapidly around ADem onset. Neurofilament light is the only protein with notable early changes in plasma levels. The rate of change varies, with CSF, memory, amyloid PET and brain structural measures exhibiting the highest rate before the onset of ADem, followed by a decline. The probability of progressing to a more severe clinical state increases almost exponentially with age. In accordance with previous studies, the presence of apolipoprotein E4 alleles and amyloid-β accumulation can be associated with an increased risk of developing the disease, but their influence depends on age and clinical state.

Conclusions

Despite the limited longitudinal data at the individual level and the high variability observed in such data, the study elucidates the link between the long asynchronous pathophysiological processes and the preclinical and clinical stages of AD.

0070 The Effects of Acute Blue Wavelength Light Exposure on Functional Brain Connectivity and Mood

Introduction

Blue wavelength light is an effective treatment for delayed sleep phase syndrome, seasonal affective disorder and bipolar depression. The role of blue light in regulating melatonin production has been extensively studied, but other potential neurophysiological effects remain poorly understood. Some studies have suggested that daily blue light exposure may modulate functional brain responses within the amygdala and prefrontal cortex (PFC), potentially explaining blue light’s antidepressant effect. In this study we investigated the effects of a single 30-minute session of blue light exposure on functional resting state connectivity between the amygdala and PFC.

Methods

Twenty-nine healthy 18–32 year olds were randomly assigned to either receive 30 minutes of blue (n=17) or non-blue (amber) light (n=12) exposure followed by a 7-minute resting state scan. Pre- and post light exposure, participants completed the Positive and Negative Affect Scale, as a measure of state affect.

Results

Individuals who received blue versus amber light showed greater positive connectivity between the right amygdala and the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) (x=-24, y=46, z=18, k=90, volume p-FDR corrected, p&lt;0.001). Increased amygdala-DLFC connectivity correlated with greater decreases in negative mood for the blue (ρ=-.55, p=0.03), but not the amber group. Using Granger Causality, we found that the directionality of information flow between these two areas was bidirectional (p&lt;0.0025).

Conclusion

Blue light exposure appears to facilitate greater information flow between the amygdala and the DLPFC at rest, potentially enhancing cognitive processes that regulate arousal and mood. As blue light exposure has been shown to enhance attention and learning, using blue light exposure during practice of emotional regulation strategies, such as reappraisal, may further increase the beneficial effects of blue light on mood. In order to use blue light exposure in a more targeted manner for sleep and mood disorders, further research into the underlying neurophysiological mechanisms is needed.

Support

This research was supported by a USAMRAA grant to WDSK (W81XWH-14-1-0571) as well as by an Arizona Health Education Centers (AHEC) Research Grant to AA.

Unravelling the utility of modern sulfonylureas from cardiovascular outcome trials and landmark trials: expert opinion from an international panel

AIM

The primary objective of this review is to develop practice-based expert group opinions on the cardiovascular (CV) safety and utility of modern sulfonylureas (SUs) in cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs).

BACKGROUND

The United States Food and Drug Administration issued new guidance to the pharmaceutical industry in 2008 regarding the development of new antihyperglycemic drugs. The guidance expanded the scope for the approval of novel antihyperglycemic drugs by mandating CVOTs for safety. A few long-term CVOTs on dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists, and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors have been completed, while others are ongoing. SUs, which constitute one of the key antihyperglycemic agents used for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), have been used as comparator agents in several CVOTs. However, the need for CVOTs on modern SUs remains debatable. In this context, a multinational group of endocrinologists convened for a meeting and discussed the need for CVOTs of modern SUs to evaluate their utility in the management of patients with T2DM. At the meeting, CVOTs of modern SUs conducted to date and the hypotheses derived from the results of these trials were discussed.

REVIEW RESULTS

The expert group analyzed the key trials emphasizing the CV safety of modern SUs and also reviewed the results of various CVOTs in which modern SUs were used as comparators. Based on literature evidence and individual clinical insights, the expert group opined that modern SUs are cardiosafe and that since they have been used as comparators in other CVOTs, CVOTs of SUs are not required.

CONCLUSION

Modern SUs can be considered a cardiosafe option for the management of patients with diabetes mellitus and CV disease; thus CVOTs among individuals with T2DM are not required.

Expert Group Consensus Opinion: Role of Anti-inflammatory Agents in the Management of Type-2 Diabetes (T2D)

Diabetes is a major public health emergency of the 21st century. Results of the Indian Council of Medical Research-INdia DIABetes (ICMR-INDIAB) study have found prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes in India to be as high as 7.3% and 10.3%, respectively with nation-wide projection of 77.2 million people with prediabetes and 69.2 million with diabetes. It is well established that insulin resistance (IR) and islet β-cell failure are the two major features of T2D Multiple mechanisms including glucotoxicity, lipotoxicity, oxidative stress, endoplasmic reticulum stress, formation of amyloid deposits in the islets, etc. have been hypothesized to participate in the pathology of the disease. In the concluding decade of the last century, numerous studies - prospective and cross-sectional, have confirmed the role of chronic low-grade inflammation as a pathogenetic factor of T2D. It has been shown that increased levels of various inflammatory markers and mediators including fundamental markers like white blood cell count, C-reactive protein (CRP) to the more specific circulating cytokines like, interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-1β, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1), etc. correlate with incident T2D. Based on the robust evidence implying the role of inflammation in T2D pathogenesis, several studies have proven that the proinflammatory cytokines play a central role in the development of microvascular diabetic complications such as nephropathy, retinopathy, and neuropathy. Inflammation in T2D causes accelerated atherosclerosis which predisposes to CVD, the leading cause of mortality in these patients. Recently there is a considerable increase in the interest among the researchers about anti-inflammatory therapies in the setting of chronic disorders such as T2D and CV diseases. In a multi-country study conducted in Asia, approximately 50% of Indian respondents had poor diabetes control. Most patients initially respond to sulfonylurea and/or metformin, and later these agents lose their effectiveness with time. Therapeutic option in patients uncontrolled on two-drug combination therapy is either to add third oral drug or insulin. However, use of insulin is limited due to its high cost and poor compliance. Majority of new treatment options like GLP1 agonists, insulin analogs and SGLT2 inhibitors are costly considering they are still under patent. The thiazolidinedione class of drugs is associated with adverse effects like fluid retention and weight gain that may result in or exacerbate edema and congestive heart failure. Thus there is a need for a safe and inexpensive treatment option for the management of uncontrolled T2D. Considering the role of inflammation in T2D pathogenesis, the drug should not only have antihyperglycemic effects but also reduce inflammatory burden thus reducing the progression and complications of T2D. The current interest is apparently directed towards drugs targeting inflammation acting at different stages of the inflammatory cascade. In the recently published CANTOS study, canakinumab, a selective, high-affinity, fully human monoclonal antibody which inhibits IL-1β, has no consistent long-term benefits on HbA1c. Other selective inhibitors like anakinra (IL-1 receptor antagonist) and etanercept (TNF inhibitor) too have yielded modest effects on glycemic parameters and insulin sensitivity. However, hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), a broad anti-inflammatory agent has been shown to reduce HbA1c by 0.87%. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is considered as one of the safest disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug, used widely for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The effect of HCQ in preventing development of diabetes in patients with chronic inflammatory diseases was highlighted in a prospective observational study of 4905 adults with rheumatoid arthritis and no diabetes with 21.5 years of follow-up. Patients who took HCQ for more than 4 years had a significant 77% lower risk of diabetes compared with non users of HCQ (RR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.11-0.50). Taking cue from this study highlighting the anti-diabetic effect of HCQ, pioneering research studies evaluating these effects of HCQ were conducted in India. In 2014, hydroxychloroquine 400 mg got DCGI approval as an adjunct to diet and exercise to improve glycemic control of patients on metformin, sulfonylurea combination in Type 2 diabetes.

Rare disease heralded by pulmonary manifestations: Avoiding pitfalls of an "asthma" label

Pulmonary manifestations are seldom recognized as symptoms of storage disorders. The report describes the diagnostic journey in a 30-month-old male infant, born of a third-degree consanguineous marriage referred to our institute as severe persistent asthma. History revealed that the child had progressively worsening breathlessness and persistent dry cough not associated with fever but accompanied by weight loss. On physical examination, there was growth failure, respiratory distress, clubbing, hepatosplenomegaly, and occasional rhonchi. Blood gas revealed hypoxemia which improved with oxygen administration. Plain X-rays and high-resolution computed tomography of the chest showed perihilar alveolar infiltrates and patchy consolidation. The clinicoradiological features did not support a diagnosis of asthma but favored interstitial lung disease (ILD). Bronchoalveolar lavage was performed as a first-tier investigation. It showed periodic acid-Schiff-negative foamy macrophages. The clues of consanguinity, visceromegaly, ILD, and foamy macrophages in the bronchoalveolar fluid prompted consideration of lysosomal storage disorders as the likely etiology. Gaucher disease and Niemann-Pick disease A/B were ruled out by enzyme estimation. Niemann-Pick disease type C was suspected and confirmed by detecting a homozygous mutation in the NPC2 gene. This case serves to caution physicians against labeling breathlessness in every toddler as asthma. It emphasizes the importance of searching for tell-tale signs such as clubbing and extrapulmonary clues which point to a systemic disease such as lysosomal storage disorders as a primary etiology of chronic respiratory symptoms.

When potion becomes poison! A case report of flecainide toxicity

We report a 48-day-old female infant, who developed cardiac conduction abnormalities and seizures secondary to supratherapeutic doses of oral flecainide. Flecainide was started in this infant for treatment of supraventricular tachycardia. The drug was withdrawn with successful normalization of the QRS complex and no further recurrence of seizures. The Naranjo probability score for adverse drug reaction was 8, making the causality “probable.” The case restates an important message that physicians should be aware of the side effects of the drugs that they prescribe, especially of those drugs which have a narrow therapeutic window.

Prevalence of hypothyroidism in nondiabetic chronic kidney disease and effect of thyroxine replacement on estimated glomerular filtration rate

Reduced T3 and free T4, elevated thyroid stimulating hormone, and hyporesponsiveness to thyrotropin releasing hormone raise questions about the presence of hypothyroidism in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and raise the possibility of benefit from thyroxine supplementation. A prospective cohort study was conducted on 73 nondiabetic CKD cases. Hypothyroid patients were started on levothyroxine and were reviewed after 3 and 6 months. The mean age of study population was 42.3 ± 16.8 years. Of the total population, 32 (43.8%) cases had hypothyroidism, among whom 2 (2.7%) had overt hypothyroidism and 30 (41.1%) had subclinical hypothyroidism. Prevalence of hypothyroidism increased with increasing severity of CKD. There were 1 (3.1%) case with hypothyroidism in stage 3b, 8 (25%) cases in stage 4, and 23 (71.9%) cases in stage 5. The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (ml/min/1.73 m²) at baseline was 13.7 ± 8.9 which increased to 17.5 ± 6.8 and 22.4 ± 9.3 after 3 and 6 months of thyroid hormone replacement therapy (THRT), respectively (P < 0.001). Hypothyroidism is commonly associated with nondiabetic CKD and its prevalence increases with declining renal function. THRT significantly improves renal function in nondiabetic CKD with hypothyroidism.

Effect of narrow band ultraviolet B phototherapy on T helper 17 cell specific cytokines (interleukins-17, 22 and 23) in psoriasis vulgaris

BACKGROUND

Psoriasis is mediated by a T helper 17 (Th17) cell inflammatory process. This study describes the changes in serum levels of IL-17, 22 and 23 in patients of psoriasis vulgaris treated with narrow band ultraviolet B (NBUVB).

METHODS

The serum levels of IL-17, 22 and 23 were compared with a control group (n = 30) before and after NBUVB. In addition, post-NBUVB levels were compared with healthy controls. Psoriasis Area Severity Score (PASI) and Body Surface Area scoring were used to evaluate severity of disease.

RESULTS

When compared with the non-psoriasis control group, IL-17, 22 and 23 were higher in psoriasis patients (p < 0.05, p < 0.001, p < 0.001, respectively). The serum levels of all three interleukins strongly correlated with severity of disease. Although IL-17, 22 and 23 decreased after NBUVB, decline in IL-17 was not significant after phototherapy as compared to controls (p = 0.634). IL-22 and 23 continued to remain elevated post-phototherapy when compared with control group (p < 0.05, p < 0.0001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The serum levels of IL-17, 22 and 23 decrease after phototherapy in psoriasis. Post-phototherapy only the IL-17 levels decrease to that of non-psoriasis controls. Our study supports the role of T helper 17 cell specific cytokines in psoriasis and a possible mechanism of action of NBUVB via inhibition of these cytokines.

Altered serum and salivary C-reactive protein levels in patients with oral premalignant lesions and oral squamous cell carcinoma

Chronic inflammation is associated with cancer development. C-reactive protein (CRP), an acute phase protein synthesized primarily in the liver, is a marker for inflammation and for the progression of many cancers. We compared serum and salivary CRP levels in 20 normal individuals, 20 patients with oral premalignant lesions and 20 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) to assess its efficacy as a prognostic indicator for OSCC. Saliva and blood samples were obtained and evaluated for CRP levels. Mean CRP levels were higher in patients with oral premalignant lesions compared to controls. CRP levels in OSCC patients were elevated and were associated with advanced tumor stages.

"FISHed" out the diagnosis: A case of DiGeorge syndrome

Our patient presented with congenital heart disease (CHD: Tetralogy of Fallot), hypocalcemia, hypoparathyroidism, and facial dysmorphisms. Suspecting DiGeorge syndrome (DGS), a fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis for 22q11.2 deletion was made. The child had a hemizygous deletion in the 22q11.2 region, diagnostic of DGS. Unfortunately, the patient succumbed to the heart disease. DGS is the most common microdeletion syndrome, and probably underrecognized due to the varied manifestations. This case stresses the importance of a detailed physical examination and a high index of suspicion for diagnosing this genetic condition. Timely diagnosis can help manage and monitor these patients better and also offer prenatal diagnosis in the next pregnancy.

DNA damage-induced ephrin-B2 reverse signaling promotes chemoresistance and drives EMT in colorectal carcinoma harboring mutant p53

Mutation in the TP53 gene positively correlates with increased incidence of chemoresistance in different cancers. In this study, we investigated the mechanism of chemoresistance and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) in colorectal cancer involving the gain-of-function (GOF) mutant p53/ephrin-B2 signaling axis. Bioinformatic analysis of the NCI-60 data set and subsequent hub prediction identified EFNB2 as a possible GOF mutant p53 target gene, responsible for chemoresistance. We show that the mutant p53-NF-Y complex transcriptionally upregulates EFNB2 expression in response to DNA damage. Moreover, the acetylated form of mutant p53 protein is recruited on the EFNB2 promoter and positively regulates its expression in conjunction with coactivator p300. In vitro cell line and in vivo nude mice data show that EFNB2 silencing restores chemosensitivity in mutant p53-harboring tumors. In addition, we observed high expression of EFNB2 in patients having neoadjuvant non-responder colorectal carcinoma compared with those having responder version of the disease. In the course of deciphering the drug resistance mechanism, we also show that ephrin-B2 reverse signaling induces ABCG2 expression after drug treatment that involves JNK-c-Jun signaling in mutant p53 cells. Moreover, 5-fluorouracil-induced ephrin-B2 reverse signaling promotes tumorigenesis through the Src-ERK pathway, and drives EMT via the Src-FAK pathway. We thus conclude that targeting ephrin-B2 might enhance the therapeutic potential of DNA-damaging chemotherapeutic agents in mutant p53-bearing human tumors.

A case-control study on insulin resistance, metabolic co-variates & prediction score in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE

Asian Indians have a high prevalence of insulin resistance and the metabolic syndrome. Currently, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered to be an integral part of the metabolic syndrome with insulin resistance as a central pathogenic factor. We studied anthropometric parameters, insulin resistance and metabolic co-variates in subjects with NAFLD as compared to those without NAFLD, and also developed a prediction score for NAFLD.

METHODS

Thirty nine subjects with NAFLD and 82 controls were selected for the study after ultrasonography of 121 consecutive apparently healthy subjects. Anthropometric profile [body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) etc,], lipid profile, hepatic aminotransferases, fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin were recorded and value of homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) was analysed. Step-wise logistic regression analysis and area under the receiver operator curve (aROC) were analysed to arrive at a prediction score.

RESULTS

Overall, prevalence of NAFLD was 32.2 per cent and prevalence of metabolic syndrome was seen in 41 per cent among cases and 19.5 per cent in controls (P<0.01). Subjects with NAFLD had significantly higher values of BMI, WC, hip circumference, FBG, fasting insulin, total cholesterol and serum triglycerides. Step-wise logistic regression analysis showed odds ratio (OR) and 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) for BMI [ 4.3 (1.6, 11.3)], FBG [5.5 (1.5, 19.8)] and fasting insulin [ 2.4 (1.0, 5.8)] as independent predictors of NAFLD. The prediction score for NAFLD was; 1 (fasting insulin) +1.6 (BMI) + 1.9 (FBG) (sensitivity of 84.6%, specificity of 51.2% and aROC 76%).

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION

In this study, presence of NAFLD indicated close relationship with multiple features of metabolic syndrome. The prediction score developed could be used as a screening tool to predict NAFLD among Asian Indians in north India.