Progress developing the concept of other effective area-based conservation measures

In 2010, the introduction of other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) into international policy caused a paradigm shift in area-based conservation, which included consideration of areas outside formal protected areas and places where biodiversity conservation may not be a management objective for the site. Despite the importance of this shift for global conservation, conservation science and policy have been slow to engage with the concept of OECMs. As the world moves toward protecting 30% of the Earth by 2030, it is imperative to develop evidence-based guidance for how to identify effective conservation measures, especially tools to help evaluate and monitor the biodiversity outcomes associated with potential OECMs. To understand the current progress in developing the concept of OECMs, I evaluated the peer-reviewed literature to consolidate and synthesize current knowledge. I conducted a thematic analysis of papers to identify the types of challenges and opportunities being discussed and lessons from studies evaluating the effectiveness of OECMs. Only 105 studies mentioned OECMs, and those that did rarely move beyond superficial mention of OECMs as part of area-based conservation. Around one-half of studies listed potential risks or benefits of OECMs but none provided evidence these issues have materialized. Twenty-three studies attempted to identify potential OECMs, although specific case studies were rare. The 7 studies that evaluated existing OECMs were highly critical of how they had been implemented to date. Studies that evaluated conservation outcomes were extremely rare, and suggested effectiveness must be judged on a case-by-case basis. The current literature not only leaves many gaps in the science required to operationalize the concept of OECMs, but also often raises additional questions that need to be addressed. If these gaps are not filled by robust science, the promised benefits for biodiversity from OECMs may never be realized.

Rapid, recurring, structured survey versus bioblitz for generating biodiversity data and analysis with a multispecies abundance model

A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat-occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.

Conceptual frameworks and key questions for assessing the contribution of marine protected areas to shark and ray conservation

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are key tools in addressing the global decline of sharks and rays, and marine parks and shark sanctuaries of various configurations have been established to conserve shark populations. However, assessments of their efficacy are compromised by inconsistent terminology, lack of standardized approaches to assess how MPAs contribute to shark and ray conservation, and ambiguity about how to integrate movement data in assessment processes. We devised a conceptual framework to standardize key terms (e.g., protection, contribution, potential impact, risk, threat) and used the concept of portfolio risk to identify key attributes of sharks and rays (assets), the threats they face (portfolio risk), and the specific role of MPAs in risk mitigation (insurance). Movement data can be integrated into the process by informing risk exposure and mitigation through MPAs. The framework is operationalized by posing 8 key questions that prompt practitioners to consider the assessment scope, MPA type and purpose, range of existing and potential threats, species biology and ecology, and management and operational contexts. Ultimately, MPA contributions to shark and ray conservation differ according to a complex set of human and natural factors and interactions that should be carefully considered in MPA design, implementation, and evaluation.

Integration of qualitative and quantitative methods for land-use-change modeling in a deforestation frontier

Development and implementation of effective protected area management to reduce deforestation depend in part on identifying factors contributing to forest loss and areas at risk of conversion, but standard land-use-change modeling may not fully capture contextual factors that are not easily quantified. To better understand deforestation and agricultural expansion in Amazonian protected areas, we combined quantitative land-use-change modeling with qualitative discourse analysis in a case study of Brazil's Jamanxim National Forest. We modeled land-use change from 2008 to 2018 and projected deforestation through 2028. We used variables identified in a review of studies that modeled land-use change in the Amazon (e.g., variables related to agricultural suitability and economic accessibility) and from a critical discourse analysis that examined documents produced by different actors (e.g., government agencies and conservation nonprofit organizations) at various spatial scales. As measured by analysis of variance, McFadden's adjusted pseudo R² , and quantity and allocation disagreement, we found that including variables in the model identified as important to deforestation dynamics through the qualitative discourse analysis (e.g., the proportion of unallocated public land, distance to proposed infrastructure developments, and density of recent fires) alongside more traditional variables (e.g., elevation, distance to roads, and protection status) improved the predictive ability of these models. Models that included discourse analysis variables and traditional variables explained up to 19.3% more of the observed variation in deforestation probability than a model that included only traditional variables and 4.1% more variation than a model with only discourse analysis variables. Our approach of integrating qualitative and quantitative methods in land-use-change modeling provides a framework for future interdisciplinary work in land-use change.

Challenges of and opportunities for protecting European soil biodiversity

Soil biodiversity and related ecosystem functions are neglected in most biodiversity assessments and nature conservation actions. We examined how society, and particularly policy makers, have addressed these factors worldwide with a focus on Europe and explored the role of soils in nature conservation in Germany as an example. We reviewed past and current global and European policies, compared soil ecosystem functioning in- and outside protected areas, and examined the role of soils in nature conservation management via text analyses. Protection and conservation of soil biodiversity and soil ecosystem functioning have been insufficient. Soil-related policies are unenforceable and lack soil biodiversity conservation goals, focusing instead on other environmental objectives. We found no evidence of positive effects of current nature conservation measures in multiple soil ecosystem functions in Europe. In German conservation management, soils are considered only from a limited perspective (e.g., as physicochemical part of the environment and as habitat for aboveground organisms). By exploring policy, evidence, and management as it relates to soil ecosystems, we suggest an integrative perspective to move nature conservation toward targeting soil ecosystems directly (e.g., by setting baselines, monitoring soil threats, and establishing a soil indicator system).

How percentage-protected targets can support positive biodiversity outcomes

Global targets for the percentage area of land protected, such as 30% by 2030, have gained increasing prominence, but both their scientific basis and likely effectiveness have been questioned. As with emissions-reduction targets based on desired climate outcomes, percentage-protected targets combine values and science by estimating the area over which conservation actions are required to help achieve desired biodiversity outcomes. Protected areas are essential for achieving many biodiversity targets, in part because many species are highly sensitive to human-associated disturbance. However, because the contribution of protected areas to biodiversity outcomes is contingent on their location, management, governance, threats, and what occurs across the broader landscape matrix, global percentage-protected targets are unavoidably empirical generalizations of ecological patterns and processes across diverse geographies. Percentage-protected targets are insufficient in isolation but can complement other actions and contribute to biodiversity outcomes within a framework that balances accuracy and pragmatism in a global context characterized by imperfect biodiversity data. Ideally, percentage-protected targets serve as anchors that strengthen comprehensive national biodiversity strategies by communicating the level of ambition necessary to reverse current trends of biodiversity loss. If such targets are to fulfill this role within the complex societal process by which both values and science impel conservation actions, conservation scientists must clearly communicate the nature of the evidence base supporting percentage-protected targets and how protected areas can function within a broader landscape managed for sustainable coexistence between people and nature. A new paradigm for protected and conserved areas recognizes that national coordination, incentives, and monitoring should support rather than undermine diverse locally led conservation initiatives. However, the definition of a conserved area must retain a strong focus on biodiversity to remain consistent with the evidence base from which percentage-protected targets were originally derived.

Using interview surveys and multispecies occupancy models to inform vertebrate conservation

Species distribution data are an essential biodiversity variable requiring robust monitoring to inform wildlife conservation. Yet, such data remain inherently sparse because of the logistical challenges of monitoring biodiversity across broad geographic extents. Surveys of people knowledgeable about the occurrence of wildlife provide an opportunity to evaluate species distributions and the ecology of wildlife communities across large spatial scales. We analyzed detection histories of 30 vertebrate species across the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot in India, obtained from a large-scale interview survey of 2318 people who live and work in the forests of this region. We developed a multispecies occupancy model that simultaneously corrected for false-negative (non-detection) and false-positive (misidentification) errors that interview surveys can be prone to. Using this model, we integrated data across species in composite analyses of the responses of functional species groups (based on disturbance tolerance, diet, and body mass traits) to spatial variation in environmental variables, protection, and anthropogenic pressures. We observed a positive association between forest cover and the occurrence of species with low tolerance of human disturbance. Protected areas were associated with higher occurrence for species across different functional groups compared with unprotected lands. We also observed the occurrence of species with low disturbance tolerance, herbivores, and large-bodied species was negatively associated with developmental pressures, such as human settlements, energy production and mining, and demographic pressures, such as biological resource extraction. For the conservation of threatened vertebrates, our work underscores the importance of maintaining forest cover and reducing deforestation within and outside protected areas, respectively. In addition, mitigating a suite of pervasive human pressures is also crucial for wildlife conservation in one of the world's most densely populated biodiversity hotspots.

Effects of stewardship on protected area effectiveness for coastal birds

Evaluation of protected area effectiveness is critical for conservation of biodiversity. Protected areas that prioritize biodiversity conservation are, optimally, located and managed in ways that support relatively large and stable or increasing wildlife populations. Yet evaluating conservation efficacy remains a challenging endeavor. We used an extensive community science data set, eBird, to evaluate the efficacy of protected areas for birds across the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the United States. We modeled trends (2007-2018) for 12 vulnerable waterbirds that use coastal areas during breeding or wintering. We compared two types of protected areas-sites where conservation organizations implemented active stewardship or management or both to reduce human disturbance (hereafter stewardship sites) and local, state, federal, and private protected areas managed to maintain natural land cover (hereafter protected areas)-as well as unprotected areas. We evaluated differences in trends between stewardship, protected, and unprotected areas across the Gulf and Atlantic coasts as a whole. Similar to a background sample, stewardship was known to occur at stewardship sites, but unknown at protected and unprotected areas. Four of 12 target species-Black Skimmer (Rynchops niger), Brown Pelican (Pelecanus occidentalis), Least Tern (Sternula antillarum), and Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus)-had more positive trends (two to 34 times greater) at stewardship sites than protected areas. Furthermore, five target species showed more positive trends at sites with stewardship programs than unprotected sites during at least one season, whereas seven species showed more positive trends at protected than unprotected areas. No species had more negative trends at stewardship sites than unprotected areas, and two species had more negative trends at protected than unprotected areas. Anthropogenic disturbance is a serious threat to coastal birds, and our findings demonstrate that stewardship to reduce its negative impacts helps ensure conservation of vulnerable waterbirds.

Software for prioritizing conservation actions based on probabilistic information

Marxan is the most common decision-support tool used to inform the design of protected-area systems. The original version of Marxan does not consider risk and uncertainty associated with threatening processes affecting protected areas, including uncertainty about the location and condition of species' populations and habitats now and in the future. We described and examined the functionality of a modified version of Marxan, Marxan with Probability. This software explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty: probability that a feature exists in a particular place (estimated based on species distribution models or spatially explicit population models); probability that features in a site will be lost in the future due to a threatening process, such as climate change, natural catastrophes, and uncontrolled human interventions; probability that a feature will exist in the future due to natural successional processes, such as a fire or flood; and probability the feature exists but has been degraded by threatening processes, such as overfishing or pollution, and thus cannot contribute to conservation goals. We summarized the results of 5 studies that illustrate how each type of uncertainty can be used to inform protected area design. If there were uncertainty in species or habitat distribution, users could maximize the chance that these features were represented by including uncertainty using Marxan with Probability. Similarly, if threatening processes were considered, users minimized the chance that species or habitats were lost or degraded by using Marxan with Probability. Marxan with Probability opens up substantial new avenues for systematic conservation planning research and application by agencies.

Rewilding in the face of climate change

Expansion of the global protected-area network has been proposed as a strategy to address threats from accelerating climate change and species extinction. A key step in increasing the effectiveness of such expansion is understanding how novel threats to biodiversity from climate change alter concepts such as rewilding, which have underpinned many proposals for large interconnected reserves. We reviewed potential challenges that climate change poses to rewilding and found that the conservation value of large protected areas persists under climate change. Nevertheless, more attention should be given to protection of microrefugia, macrorefugia, complete environmental gradients, and areas that connect current and future suitable climates and to maintaining ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks via conservation strategies that are resilient to uncertainty regarding climate trends. Because a major element of the threat from climate change stems from its novel geographic patterns, we examined, as an example, the implications for climate-adaptation planning of latitudinal, longitudinal (continental to maritime), and elevational gradients in climate-change exposure across the Yellowstone-to-Yukon region, the locus of an iconic conservation proposal initially designed to conserve wide-ranging carnivore species. In addition to a continued emphasis on conserving intact landscapes, restoration of degraded low-elevation areas within the region is needed to capture sites important for landscape-level climate resilience. Extreme climate exposure projected for boreal North America suggests the need for ambitious goals for expansion of the protected-area network there to include refugia created by topography and ecological features, such as peatlands, whose conservation can also reduce emissions from carbon stored in soil. Qualitative understanding of underlying reserve design rules and the geography of climate-change exposure can strengthen the outcomes of inclusive regional planning processes that identify specific sites for protection.

Determining the role of eudaimonic values in conservation behavior

Values are the fundamental reasons why people engage in conservation behaviors. Recent research has called for a more refined approach to studying values in a way that accounts for the concept of eudaimonia. However, the empirical properties for a eudaimonic value scale have not been tested given that previous investigations have remained at the theoretical level. Drawing from an on-site survey of visitors to Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska, we used a latent profile analysis used a latent profile analysis to better understand the expression of multiple values of nature. Specifically, we segmented respondents by their value orientations with a particular focus on evaluating eudaimonic and hedonic values, alongside the established dimensions of altruistic, biospheric, and egoistic values. We identified 4 distinct subgroups defined by value orientations and validated these subgroups based on measures of conservation behavior and sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., age). These results indicated campaign messaging should harness a combination of eudaimonic, biospheric, and altruistic values to propel individual behavior. We also observed that hedonic and egoistic values defined how people related to nature and played a role, albeit less pronounced, in motivating them to take action. Our study is one of the first efforts to operationalize eudaimonia in a conservation context; thus, we have opened a new avenue for protected-area managers to align their strategies with the underlying values of stakeholders.

Effectiveness of terrestrial protected areas for conservation of lake fish communities

Freshwater protected areas are rare even though freshwater ecosystems are among the most imperiled in the world. Conservation actions within terrestrial protected areas (TPAs) such as development or resource extraction regulations may spill over to benefit freshwater ecosystems within their boundaries. Using data from 175 lakes across Ontario, Canada, we compared common indicators of fish-assemblage status (i.e., species richness, Shannon diversity index, catch per unit effort, and normalized-length size spectrum slopes) to evaluate whether TPAs benefit lake fish assemblages. Nearest neighbor cluster analysis was used to generate pairs of lakes: inside versus outside, inside versus bordering, and bordering versus outside TPAs based on lake characteristics. The diversity and abundance indicators did not differ significantly across comparisons, but normalized-length size spectrum slopes (NLSS) were significantly steeper in lakes outside parks. The latter indicated assemblage differences (greater abundances of small-bodied species) and less-efficient energy transfer through the trophic levels of assemblages outside parks. Although not significantly different, pollution- and turbidity-tolerant species were more abundant outside parks, whereas 3 of the 4 pollution-intolerant species were more abundant within parks. Twenty-one percent of the difference in slopes was related to higher total dissolved solids concentrations and angling pressure. Our results support the hypothesis that TPAs benefit lake fish assemblages and suggest that NLSS slopes are informative indicators for aquatic protected area evaluations because they represent compositional and functional aspects of communities.