Modeling the resilience of urban mobility when exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative system dynamics approach

In December 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was detected in Wuhan, China. Due to the rapid spread of the disease, containment measures were adopted, which caused unprecedent shifts in individual mobility. Although some studies explored the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on travel patterns and resilience of transport systems based on different analysis techniques, there is a lack of studies addressing the impacts of the pandemic on the sustainability and resilience of urban mobility systems using in-depth and holistic methods, such as system dynamics. This research aims to characterize the dynamics present in urban mobility systems when exposed to pandemics and analyze the changes needed for systems to increase their resilience to pandemics using qualitative system dynamics modeling. The framework comprises the characterization of cause-and-effect relationships and the creation of systems' causal loop diagrams (CLD) in their basic state of functionality, when affected by pandemics, and still operating owing to its resilience. Our findings indicated that the CLD of a resilient system is driven by strategic preparedness and response plans, as well as research and development, which balance the spread of the pandemic and increase support on technological strengths and the activities performed from home.

Outdoor nature-based play in early learning and childcare centres: Identifying the determinants of implementation using causal loop diagrams and social network analysis

Nature-based play benefits children's health and development. However, the delivery of this in early learning and childcare centres (ELC) is extremely diverse, and implementation is not well understood. We applied a systems science perspective to understand the factors crucial to implementing nature-based outdoor play in ELC settings. Through Group Model Building workshops with 20 participants in managerial and practitioner roles, crucial factors were appraised using Causal Loops Diagrams. Twelve thematic causal loops emerged. Network analysis was employed to analyse the diagram. Exponential Random graph models explained the diagram construction process. Centrality measures alongside conditional uniform tests identified six leverage factors: use of outdoor space, culture of being outdoors, ELC culture of outdoor play, perceived child safety and enjoyment, educator confidence and educator agency. This research brings novel and practically relevant evidence about the important factors, and interdependencies, involved in the implementation of outdoor play practice within ELC settings.

Assessment of Environmental Impacts on Health: Examples from the Pacific Basin

Assessing environmental impacts on health in the Pacific Basin is challenged by significantly varying data types - quantities, qualities, and paucities - because of varying geographic sizes, environments, biodiversity, ecological assets, and human population densities, with highly varied and unequal socio-economic development and capacity to respond to environmental and health challenges. We discuss three case-based methodological examples from Pacific Basin environmental health impact assessments. These methods could be used to improve environmental health evidence at all country and regional levels across a spectrum of big data availability to no data. These methods are, 1) a risk assessment of airborne particulate matter in Korea based on the chemical composition of these particulates; 2) the use of system dynamics to appraise the influences of a range of environmental health determinants on child health outcomes in remote Solomon Islands; and 3) precision environmental public health methodologies based on comprehensive data collection, analyses, and modelling (including Bayesian belief networks and spatial epidemiology) increasing precision for good environmental health decision making to prevent and control a zoonotic disease in Fiji Islands. We show that while a common theme across the three examples is the value of high quality and quantity data to support stronger policy decisions and appropriate prioritizing of investment, it is also clear that for many countries in the Pacific Basin, sufficient data will remain a challenge to inform decision makers about environmental impact on health.

Epidemiology's Adoption of System Dynamics is a Natural Extension of Population Thinking

Epidemiologists have adopted systems thinking as an approach to understanding why health conditions occur in animal populations beyond the knowledge of simple linear relationships. Beef production systems are complex adaptive systems and decisions and policies throughout the system can positively or negatively affect the health of cattle. Those decisions may occur far removed in time or place from the health event and may be logical in the context of other factors in the system. Causal loop diagrams and stock and flow models are tools for sharing and testing thoughts about the ways systems might behave.

Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills

Although great progress has been made to advance the scientific understanding of oil spills, tools for integrated assessment modeling of the long-term impacts on ecosystems, socioeconomics and human health are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework that could be used to answer stakeholder questions about oil spill impacts and to identify knowledge gaps and future integration priorities. The framework was initially separated into four knowledge domains (ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health) whose interactions were explored by gathering stakeholder questions through public engagement, assimilating expert input about existing models, and consolidating information through a system dynamics approach. This synthesis resulted in a causal loop diagram from which the interconnectivity of the system could be visualized. Results of this analysis indicate that the system naturally separates into two tiers, ocean environment and biological ecosystems versus socioeconomics and human health. As a result, ocean environment and ecosystem models could be used to provide input to explore human health and socioeconomic variables in hypothetical scenarios. At decadal-plus time scales, the analysis emphasized that human domains influence the natural domains through changes in oil-spill related laws and regulations. Although data gaps were identified in all four model domains, the socioeconomics and human health domains are the least established. Considerable future work is needed to address research gaps and to create fully coupled quantitative integrative assessment models that can be used in strategic decision-making that will optimize recoveries from future large oil spills.

Developing a Conceptual Model for Sustainable water Resource Management and Agricultural Development: the Case of the Breede River Catchment Area, South Africa

The complex relationship that exists between water resources and agricultural production has been increasing constantly globally. Several factors are interacting to influence the management of water resources making the system complex and dynamic. To increase the understanding of these complex and dynamic systems, relevant tools are needed to identify the causal relationships that exist between the drivers and their influences on the system. Participatory modelling based on the system dynamics approach provides a simplistic and visualisation tool that can improve the understanding of the functioning of a complex and dynamic system. A multi-stage participatory approach was used in this study involving relevant stakeholders in the development of an integrated conceptual system dynamic model using causal loop diagrams. This approach was used because it captures the thought process and mental model of relevant stakeholders in the development of the model, making it a valuable tool for policy and decision making at government and individual levels. The integrated model built in this study used causal loop diagrams to address problems of water management and agricultural sustainability in the Breede River Catchment. The model shows major causal-relationships and feedback loops that determine the functioning of the overall system. The model demonstrates the usefulness of the participatory approach in solving problems related to water management and agricultural development in the catchment.

Participatory Modeling of Water Vulnerability in Remote Alaskan Households Using Causal Loop Diagrams

Despite perceptions of high water availability, adequate access to sufficient water resources remains a major challenge in Alaska. This paper uses a participatory modeling approach to investigate household water vulnerability in remote Alaska and to examine factors that affect water availability and water access. Specifically, the work asks: how do water policy stakeholders conceptualize the key processes that affect household water vulnerability in the context of rural Alaska? Fourteen water policy stakeholders participated in the modeling process, which included defining the problem of household water vulnerability and constructing individual causal loop diagrams (CLDs) that represent their conceptualization of household water vulnerability. Individual CLDs were subsequently combined and five sub-models emerged: environmental, economic, infrastructure, social, and health. The environmental and economic sub-models of the CLD are explored in depth. In the environmental sub-model, climate change and environmental barriers due to geography influence household water vulnerability. In the economic sub-model, four processes and one feedback loop affect household water vulnerability, including operations and maintenance funding, the strength of the rural Alaskan economy, and the impact of regulations. To overcome household water vulnerability and make households more resilient, stakeholders highlighted policy solutions under five themes: economics, social, regulatory, technological, and environmental.

Driving and restraining forces for the implementation of the Agrophotovoltaics system technology - A system dynamics analysis

The innovative Agrophotovoltaics (APV) system technology combines agricultural biomass and solar power production on the same site and aims at reducing the conflict between food and power production. Unrelated to this benefit, this technology may impact the landscape negatively and could thus be subject to public opposition and/or restraining frameworks. The presented study offers a System Dynamics (SD) approach, through Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) models, based on the results of citizen workshops, literature research, and expert discussions on the technology. A comprehensive analysis of the driving and restraining forces for the implementation of APV-technology and expected or potential impacts reveals influential factors. Hence, this SD approach identifies bottlenecks and conflicting objectives in the technology implementation that need to be further addressed. A key finding is that successful APV-projects would require stakeholder involvement to achieve greater local acceptance. When it comes to production on agricultural land, APV-systems may drive the land use efficiency to up to 186 percent when the PV-panels serve for protection against heat stress. On the other hand, altered precipitation patterns and impacts on agricultural cultivation and, especially, the landscape caused by the technical system, may restrain the application of APV. Finally, system design factors and operator modes are amongst the criteria that may influence the local acceptance in society, farmers' motivation for APV and economic factors for the market launch of APV.

Application of Systems Thinking to the assessment of an institutional development project of river restoration at a campus university in Southern Brazil

Rapid urban growth and high population density have become a problem for urban water resources, especially in developing countries. In general, the pollution of rivers and degradation of ecosystems are the result of both management failures and lack of sewage treatment. River restoration appears as a solution to improve this scenario, but it is common for there to be an absence of a systemic vision in these projects. Thus, this work analysed one of these projects as an initial approach to create coherent (qualitative) shared perspectives on the same problem. This project was developed in a Brazilian university territory in response to a Public Civil Action. Rivers within the university surroundings are degraded due to sewage disposal and wastewater pollution from external and internal sources within the university, but the programme actions contemplate only interventions within the perimeter of the university while excluding the other parts of its watershed. We analyse this problem under a Systems Thinking approach by using causal loop diagrams, being clear that ecosystems cannot be reduced to territorial limits only. The systemic map shows many actions that contribute to the water quality degradation, with emphasis on illegal dumping of wastewater (sewage) and land use change in the upstream areas prior to the university. Point measures are palliative and do not guarantee the quality of river water. Regulation of impervious surfaces and correct disposal of wastewater can improve the current panorama, but greater integration between stakeholders and other key actors is required.

Health service resilience in Yobe state, Nigeria in the context of the Boko Haram insurgency: a systems dynamics analysis using group model building

Background

Yobe State has faced severe disruption of its health service as a result of the Boko Haram insurgency. A systems dynamics analysis was conducted to identify key pathways of threat to provision and emerging pathways of response and adaptation.

Methods

Structured interviews were conducted with 39 stakeholders from three local government areas selected to represent the diversity of conflict experience across the state: Damaturu, Fune and Nguru, and with four officers of the PRRINN-MNCH program providing technical assistance for primary care development in the state. A group model building session was convened with 11 senior stakeholders, which used participatory scripts to review thematic analysis of interviews and develop a preliminary systems model linking identified variables.

Results

Population migration and transport restrictions have substantially impacted access to health provision. The human resource for health capability of the state has been severely diminished through the outward migration of (especially non-indigenous) health workers and the suspension of programmes providing external technical assistance. The political will of the Yobe State government to strengthen health provision — through lifting a moratorium on recruitment and providing incentives for retention and support of staff — has supported a recovery of health systems functioning. Policies of free-drug provision and decentralized drug supply appear to have been protective of the operation of the health system. Community resources and cohesion have been significant assets in combatting the impacts of the insurgency on service utilization and quality. Staff commitment and motivation — particularly amongst staff indigenous to the state — has protected health care quality and enabled flexibility of human resource deployment.

Conclusions

A systems analysis using participatory group model building provided a mechanism to identify key pathways of threat and adaptation with regard to health service functioning. Generalizable systems characteristics supportive of resilience are suggested, and linked to wider discussion of the role of factors such as diversity, self-regulation and integration.