Pollen-mediated gene flow from wild carrots (Daucus carota L. subsp. carota) affects the production of commercial carrot seeds (Daucus carota L. subsp. sativus) internationally and in New Zealand in the context of climate change: A systematic review

Climate change will impact the carrot seed industry globally. One adaptation strategy to limit climatic impacts on the production of commercial carrot seeds is geographical shift. However, production must be shifted to climate-optimal places that are free from weeds such as wild carrots to avoid genetic contamination via hybridization. The process of gene flow between wild and cultivated carrots is critical to enable management of wild carrots in the face of climate change. This review systematically assesses the resilience of wild carrots to climate change and their impact on commercial carrot seed production globally with a focus on New Zealand as a major carrot seed producer. The literature was critically analyzed based on three specific components: i) resilience of wild carrots to climate change ii) genetic contamination between wild and cultivated carrots, and iii) management of wild carrots. The majority of the articles were published between 2013 and 2023 (64.71 %), and most of these studies were conducted in Europe (37.26 %) and North America (27.45 %). Country-wise analysis demonstrated that the majority of the studies were carried out in the United States (23.53 %) and the Netherlands (11.77 %). There was limited research conducted in other regions, especially in Oceania (1.96 %). Spatial distribution analysis revealed that the wild carrot was reported in around 100 countries. In New Zealand the North Island has a higher incidence of wild carrot invasion than the South Island. The findings indicated that the wild carrot is becoming more adaptable to climate change, compromising the genetic purity of cultivated carrots due to pollen flow from wild to cultivated carrots. Therefore, ongoing research will be helpful in developing sustainable weed management strategies and predicting potential geographical invasiveness. This study provides a guide for scientists, policymakers, industrialists, and farmers to control wild carrots and produce genetically pure commercial seeds amid climate change.

Global responses of wetland methane emissions to extreme temperature and precipitation

As global warming continues, events of extreme heat or heavy precipitation will become more frequent, while events of extreme cold will become less so. How wetlands around the globe will react to these extreme events is unclear yet critical, because they are among the greatest natural sources of methane(CH4). Here we use seven indices of extreme climate and the rate of methane emission from global wetlands(WME) during 2000-2019 simulated by 12 published models as input data. Our analyses suggest that extreme cold (particularly extreme low temperatures) inhibits WME, whereas extreme heat (particularly extreme high temperatures) accelerates WME. Our results also suggest that daily precipitation >10 mm accelerates WME, while much higher daily precipitation levels can slow WME. The correlation of extreme high temperature and precipitation with rate of WME became stronger during the study period, while the correlation between extreme low temperature and WME rate became weaker.

The effects of different landscape strategies on outdoor thermal comfort in village squares: a case study in Dayuwan village in Wuhan City

Appropriate landscape configurations significantly mitigate rural thermal degradation. However, limited research exists on seasonal thermal comfort and the interconnections among landscape elements. Using ENVI-met software and field measurements, this study analyzed the microclimate of Dayuwan Village Square in Wuhan City. Fifteen design scenarios, including tree planting, building greening, albedo adjustment, and expanded tree coverage, were quantitatively evaluated to assess their impact on outdoor thermal comfort. Additionally, synergistic interactions between mitigation strategies were explored. The study found that increasing evergreen tree coverage by 50% has minimal impact on comfort during winter and spring. However, it significantly reduces temperatures in summer and autumn, resulting in average predicted mean vote (PMV) decreases of 0.315 and 0.643, respectively. Additionally, this strategy optimizes PMV values at 18:00 on extreme days, with a 0.102 decrease in summer and a 0.002 increase in winter. This research offers practical and sustainable guidance to designers for enhancing mitigation effects through optimal landscape configuration, providing a technical framework for rural environmental improvements.

Photosynthetic responses of Larix kaempferi and Pinus densiflora seedlings are affected by summer extreme heat rather than by extreme precipitation

The frequency and intensity of summer extreme climate events are increasing over time, and have a substantial negative effect on plants, which may be evident in their impact on photosynthesis. Here, we examined the photosynthetic responses of Larix kaempferi and Pinus densiflora seedlings to extreme heat (+ 3 °C and + 6 °C), drought, and heavy rainfall by conducting an open-field multifactor experiment. Leaf gas exchange in L. kaempferi showed a decreasing trend under increasing temperature, showing a reduction in the stomatal conductance, transpiration rate, and net photosynthetic rate by 135.2%, 102.3%, and 24.8%, respectively, in the + 6 °C treatment compared to those in the control. In contrast, P. densiflora exhibited a peak function in the stomatal conductance and transpiration rate under + 3 °C treatment. Furthermore, both species exhibited increased total chlorophyll contents under extreme heat conditions. However, extreme precipitation had no marked effect on photosynthetic activities, given the overall favorable water availability for plants. These results indicate that while extreme heat generally reduces photosynthesis by triggering stomatal closure under high vapor pressure deficit, plants employ diverse stomatal strategies in response to increasing temperature, which vary among species. Our findings contribute to the understanding of mechanisms underlying the photosynthetic responses of conifer seedlings to summer extreme climate events.

Modelling soil organic carbon dynamics under extreme climate and land use and land cover changes in Western Oromia Regional state, Ethiopia

The combined effects of changes in climate and land use and land cover can lead to a decrease in soil organic carbon, potentially affecting soil fertility and agricultural output. The study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of soil organic carbon under various extreme climate and land use and land cover scenarios. The data on land use types and extreme climate indices between 2015 and 2070 were, respectively, sourced from the IPCC and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service webpages. The 2015 baseline data for soil organic carbon was obtained from the African Soil Information Service's website. Data quality control and model validation were conducted to ensure the reliability of the collected data and the predictive model. A generalized regression model was chosen for its accuracy and reliability in predicting soil organic carbon dynamics under different shared socio-economic pathways such as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The study revealed that variations in extreme climate and land use patterns significantly influenced the organic carbon content of the soil. Increased dry days and the conversion of forest and grassland into farmland resulted in a drop in soil organic carbon, while increased wet days and warming temperatures significantly increase it under each scenario. The soil organic carbon content increased by 5.82 and 2.8 g/kg for the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, respectively, but decreased by 6.90 g/kg under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Overall, the higher emission scenarios had a significant negative impact on soil organic carbon levels, while the low emission scenarios had a positive impact. Sustainable land management practices are crucial for preserving and managing soil organic carbon levels.

Satellite monitoring reveals short-term cumulative and time-lag effect of drought and heat on autumn photosynthetic phenology in subtropical vegetation

Comparing with the effect of the average climate change on vegetation phenology, the impacts of extreme climate events remain unclear, especially considering their characteristic cumulative and time-lag effects. Using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) satellite records, we investigated the cumulative and time-lag effects of drought and heat events on photosynthesis, particularly for the end date of autumn photosynthesis (EOP), in subtropical vegetation in China. Our results showed a negative effect of drought on the delay of EOP, with the cumulative effect on 30.12% (maximum continuous dry days, CDD), 34.82% (dry days, DRD), and 26.14% (dry period, DSDI) of the study area and the general time-lag effect on 50.73% (maximum continuous dry days), 56.61% (dry days), and 47.55% (dry period) of the study area. The cumulative and lagged time were 1-3 months and 2-3 months, respectively. In contrast, the cumulative effect of heat on EOP was observed in 16.27% (warm nights, TN90P), 23.66% (moderate heat days, TX50P), and 19.19% (heavy heat days, TX90P) of the study area, with cumulative time of 1-3 months. The lagged time was 3-4 months, detected in 31.02% (warm nights), 45.86% (moderate heat days), and 36.52% (heavy heat days) of the study area. At the vegetation community level, drought and heat had relatively rapid impacts on EOP in the deciduous broadleaved forest, whereas evergreen forests and bushes responded to heat slowly and took a longer time. Our results revealed that drought and heat have short-term cumulative and time-lag effects on the EOP of subtropical vegetation in China, with varying effects among different vegetation types. These findings provide new insights into the effect of drought and heat on subtropical vegetation and confirm the need to consider these effects in the development of prediction models of autumn phenology for subtropical vegetation.

Effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage change in northern China considering extreme climate and time-lag and -accumulation effects

Quantifying the contributions of climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) to vegetation change is crucial for making a sustainable vegetation restoration scheme. However, the effects of extreme climate and time-lag and -accumulation effects on vegetation are often ignored, thus underestimating the impact of CC on vegetation change. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) from 2000 to 2019 in northern China (NC) as well as the time-lag and -accumulation effects of 15 monthly climatic indices, including extreme indices, on the FVC, were analyzed. Subsequently, a modified residual analysis considering the influence of extreme climate and time-lag and -accumulation effects was proposed and used to attribute the change in the FVC contributed by CC and HA. Given the multicollinearity of climatic variables, partial least squares regression was used to construct the multiple linear regression between climatic indices and the FVC. The results show that: (1) the annual FVC significantly increased at a rate of 0.0268/10a from 2000 to 2019 in all vegetated areas of NC. Spatially, the annual FVC increased in most vegetated areas (∼81.6 %) of NC, and the increase was significant in ∼54.6 % of the areas; (2) except for the temperature duration (DTR), climatic indices had no significant time-lag effects but significant time-accumulation effects on the FVC change. The DTR had both significant time-lag and -accumulation effects on the FVC change. Except for potential evapotranspiration and DTR, the main temporal effects of climatic indices on the FVC were a 0-month lag and 1-2-month accumulation; and (3) the contributions of CC and HA to FVC change were 0.0081/10a and 0.0187/10a in NC, respectively, accounting for 30.2 % and 69.8 %, respectively. HA dominated the increase in the FVC in most provinces of NC, except for the Qinghai and Neimenggu provinces.

Extreme climate index estimation and projection in association with enviro-meteorological parameters using random forest-ARIMA hybrid model over the Vidarbha region, India

This study aims to estimate and analyse extreme climate indices such as standardised precipitation index (SPI) coupled with enviro-met (air pollutants and meteorological) parameters over the Vidarbha region from 1980 to 2019. Seasonal SPI, also known as the draught index, is derived from rainfall data using the R language. An attempt is made to determine the best combination of enviro-met on SPI using the random forest (RF) models. The study region is divided into four zones to assess the microclimatic impact on the forecast model. Three sets of data combinations, viz., meteorological and air pollution parameters, are applied for SPI prediction using RF. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is also used for a future scenario projection. It is observed from the projection results that the drought severity is enhancing with time. The drought severity scale from 1980 to 1989 is found to be between - 1 and 1, but the scale increases from 1990 to 2019 (- 3). From 1990 to 2019, SPI's negative (-) scale has become more prominent in all Vidarbha regions. These trends are indicative of drought severity and will have a significant impact on both life and property.

Historical and recent change in extreme climate over East Asia

This is an extended editors' commentary on the topical collection "Historical and recent change in extreme climate over East Asia", which collects a total of 15 papers related to the change and variability of extreme climate events in East Asia over the last few hundreds years. The extreme climate events are broadly classified into three categories: temperature and extreme warmth/coldness, precipitation and floods/droughts and western North Pacific typhoons. This commentary briefly summarizes the main findings presented in each paper in this topical collection, and outlines the implications of these findings for monitoring, detecting and modeling of regional climate change and for studying climate change impacts and adaptability. It also assesses the uncertainties of these studies, as well as the remaining knowledge gaps that should be filled in the future. One solid conclusion we can draw from these studies is that there was a marked decadal to multi-decadal variability of extreme climate events in East Asia in recent history, and the extreme events as observed during the last decades of the instrumental era were still within the range of natural variability except for some of those related to temperature. More severe and enduring droughts occurred in the early 20 th century or the earlier periods of history, frequently leading to great famines in northern China. Uncertainties remain in reconstructing historical extreme climate events and analyzing the early instrumental records. Further research could focus on the improvement of methodology in proxy based reconstruction of multi-decadal variations of surface air temperature and precipitation/drought, the recovery, digitization, calibration and verification of the early instrumental records, and the mechanisms of the observed multi-decadal variability of extreme climate in the region.

Impacts of extreme climate on Australia's green cover (2003-2018): A MODIS and mascon probe

Australia as a continent represents a semi-arid environment that is generally water-limited. Changes in rainfall pattern will inevitably occur due to rising temperatures caused by climate change, which has a direct impact on the distribution of Australia's vegetation (green cover). As variability in rainfall continues to increase, i.e., in frequency and/or magnitude, due to climate change, extreme climate events such as droughts are predicted to become more pervasive and severe that will have an adverse effect on vegetation. This study investigates the effects of extreme climate on Australia's green cover during 2003-2018 for the end of rainy seasons of April and October in the northern and southern parts, respectively, to (i) determine the state of vegetation and its changes, (ii) identify "hotspots", i.e., regions that constantly experienced statistically significant decrease in NDVI, and (iii), relate changes in the identified hotspots to GRACE-hydrological changes. These are achieved through the exploitation of the statistical tools of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Mann-Kendel Test on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) hydrological products on the one hand, and the utilization of Australia's rainfall product and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-NDVI) used here with its native spatial resolution of 0.002413^∘ × 0.002413^∘ on the other hand. Differences between 3-year intervals from 2003 to 2018 for both April and October datasets are used to quantify vegetation variations. Through area change analysis, the vegetation differences (2003-2018) indicate that April exhibited larger increase (13.77% of total vegetation area) than decrease (7.83%) compared to October, which experienced slightly larger decrease (9.41%) than increase (8.71%). South Australia and Western Australia emerge as "hotspots" in which vegetation statistically decreased in October, with no noticeable change in April. GRACE-based hydrological changes in both hotspots reflect a decreasing trend (2003-2009) and increasing trend (2009-2012) that peaks in 2011, which then transitions towards a gradually decreasing trend after 2012. Australia-wide climate variability (ENSO and IOD) influenced vegetation variations during the data period 2003 to 2018.

Flexible breeding performance under unstable climatic conditions in a tropical passerine in Southwest China

Parents may adjust their breeding time to optimize reproductive output and reduce reproductive costs associated with unpredictable climatic conditions, especially in the context of global warming. The breeding performance of tropical bird species in response to local climate change is relatively understudied compared with that of temperate bird species. Here, based on data from 361 white-rumped munia (Lonchura striata) nests, we determined that breeding season onset, which varied from 15 February to 22 June, was delayed by drought and high temperatures. Clutch size (4.52±0.75) and daily survival rate but not egg mass (0.95±0.10 g) were negatively affected by frequent rainfall. Daily nest survival during the rainy breeding season in 2018 (0.95±0.04) was lower than that in 2017 (0.98±0.01) and 2019 (0.97±0.00). The overall nesting cycle was 40.37±2.69 days, including an incubation period of 13.10±1.18 days and nestling period of 23.22±2.40 days. The nestling period in 2018 (25.11±1.97 days) was longer than that in 2017 (22.90±2.22 days) and 2019 (22.00±2.48 days), possibly due to the cooler temperatures. Climate also affected the total number of successful fledglings, which was highest under moderate rainfall in 2017 (115 fledglings) and lowest during prolonged drought in 2019 (51 fledglings). Together, our results suggest that drought and frequent rainfall during the breeding season can decrease reproductive success. Thus, this study provides important insights into bird ecology and conservation in the context of global climate change.

Is extreme climate or moderate climate more conducive to longevity in China?

Climate is closely related to human longevity. In China, there are many climate types. According to national population censuses from 1982 to 2000, most provinces with a high ratio of centenarians are located in western and northwestern China far from the sea; these areas are characterized by a dry, cold climate, very high altitude, very high daily temperature range, strong winds, and partial hypoxia. Meanwhile, provinces with a high ratio of nonagenarians from 1982 to 2000 are located in southern China near the sea. Previous studies have attributed the high ratio of centenarians in western and northwestern China to the extreme local climate. However, centenarians in these areas decreased greatly in 2010, whereas residents in southern China frequently reached 90 to 100 years old in 2010. This study aims to explain this strange phenomenon and find whether extreme climate in Tibetan plateau and northwestern China or moderate climate in southern China is more conducive to longevity. The study found that mortality rate in Tibetan plateau is much higher than southern China, then a population evolution experiment was proposed to compare longevity indicators between low mortality rate and high mortality rate and shows that longevity indicators will decrease in the near future and increase above their original levels after several decades when the mortality rate is decreased. Results of this study show individuals in northwestern China do not live as long as those in eastern and southern China. A moderate climate is more conducive to longevity than extreme climate in China. The longevity of a region should be judged by long-term longevity indicators.

Heat waves reduce ecosystem carbon sink strength in a Eurasian meadow steppe

BACKGROUND

As a consequence of global change, intensity and frequency of extreme events such as heat waves (HW) have been increasing worldwide.

METHODS

By using a combination of continuous 60-year meteorological and 6-year tower-based carbon dioxide (CO2) flux measurements, we constructed a clear picture of a HWs effect on the dynamics of carbon, water, and vegetation on the Eurasian Songnen meadow steppe.

RESULTS

The number of HWs in the Songnen meadow steppe began increasing since the 1980s and the rate of occurrence has advanced since the 2010s to higher than ever before. HWs can reduce the grassland carbon flux, while net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) will regularly fluctuate for 4-5 days during the HW before decreasing. However, ecosystem respiration (Re) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) decline from the beginning of the HW until the end, where Re and GEP will decrease 30% and 50%, respectively. When HWs last five days, water-use efficiency (WUE) will decrease by 26%, soil water content (SWC) by 30% and soil water potential (SWP) will increase by 38%. In addition, the soil temperature will still remain high after the HW although the air temperature will recover to its previous state.

CONCLUSIONS

HWs, as an extreme weather event, have increased during the last two decades in the Songnen meadow steppe. HWs will reduce the carbon flux of the steppe and will cause a sustained impact. Drought may be the main reason why HWs decrease carbon flux. At the later stages of or after a HW, the ecosystem usually lacks water and the soil becomes so hot and dry that it prevents roots from absorbing enough water to maintain their metabolism. This is the main reason why this grassland carbon exchange decreases during and after HWs.