Legacy contaminant trends in the Great Lakes uncovered by the wildlife environmental quality index

Since the 1970s, wildlife managers have prioritized the recovery of Great Lakes ecosystems from contamination by Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs). Monitoring and quantifying the region's recovery is challenged by the diversity of legacy contaminants in the environment and the lack of benchmarks for their potential biological effects. We address this gap by introducing the Wildlife Environmental Quality Index (WEQI) based on prior water and sediment quality indices. The tool summarizes, in a single score, the exposure of wildlife to harmful levels of multiple contaminants - with harmful levels set by published guidelines for protecting piscivorous wildlife from biological impacts. We applied the new index to a combined Canadian and American dataset of Herring Gull (Larus argentatus) egg data to elucidate trends in wildlife for eight legacy industrial pollutants and insecticides in the Great Lakes. Environmental quality of the Great Lakes region (as indexed by WEQI) improved by 18% between 2002 and 2017. Improvement came from reductions in both the scope of contamination (the number of guideline-exceeding contaminants) and its amplitude (the average size of guideline exceedances) at bird colonies. But recovery was unequal among lakes, with Lake Erie showing no improvement at one extreme. Weakly- or non-recovering lakes (Erie, Ontario, Huron) were marked by inconsistent improvement in scope and amplitude, likely due to ongoing loading, sediment resuspension and other stressors reported elsewhere. Fast-recovering lakes (Superior and Michigan), meanwhile, improved in both scope and amplitude. Contrasting trends and contaminant profiles (e.g., exceedances of PCBs versus DDTs) highlight the importance of lake-specific management for equalizing recoveries. Lower environmental quality at American than Canadian colonies, particularly in Lake Huron, further suggest uneven success in - and opportunities for - the binational management of wildlife exposure to legacy contaminants.

A thirty-year contaminant trend analysis in great lakes Native American fish harvests 1991-2021

The Chippewa Ottawa Resource Authority (CORA) in Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan has been monitoring contaminant concentrations of mercury (Hg) and polychorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the fillet portions of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformus) from waters of lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan since 1991. This contaminant monitoring program is essential to supporting the fisheries interests and consumption advice for five Ojibwa and Ottawa tribes (collectively called Anishinaabe) whose ancestors ceded lands through the 1836 Treaty of Washingtonbut retained the rights to hunt and fish on those lands and waters. This manuscript presents an updated contaminant trend analysis covering the past three decades in which we observed a significant decreasing trend of median PCBs in both whitefish and lake trout harvested by tribal fishermen across all lakes. Median Hg tissue burdens significantly increased in whitefish harvests across all lakes and lake trout harvested from lake Michigan relative to earlier decades. Linear regression of fish fillets, adjusted for length, also conform to these trends. In 2021, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) were detected in all Lake Michigan samples of lake trout (median 6.81pbb total PFAS) and in white fish (median 7.18 ppb total PFAS). Both decreasing and increasing trends of these key contaminants can alter fish consumption advice and risk calculations relative to advice presented in earlier decades.

Functional gene transcription variation in bacterial metatranscriptomes in large freshwater Lake Ecosystems: Implications for ecosystem and human health

Little is known regarding the temporal and spatial functional variation of freshwater bacterial community (BC) under non-bloom conditions, especially in winter. To address this, we used metatranscriptomics to assess bacterial gene transcription variation among three sites across three seasons. Our metatranscriptome data for freshwater BCs at three public beaches (Ontario, Canada) sampled in the winter (no ice), summer and fall (2019) showed relatively little spatial, but a strong temporal variation. Our data showed high transcriptional activity in summer and fall but surprisingly, 89% of the KEGG pathway genes and 60% of the selected candidate genes (52 genes) associated with physiological and ecological activity were still active in freezing temperatures (winter). Our data also supported the possibility of an adaptively flexible gene expression response of the freshwater BC to low temperature conditions (winter). Only 32% of the bacterial genera detected in the samples were active, indicating that the majority of detected taxa were non-active (dormant). We also identified high seasonal variation in the abundance and activity of taxa associated with health risks (i.e., Cyanobacteria and waterborne bacterial pathogens). This study provides a baseline for further characterization of freshwater BCs, health-related microbial activity/dormancy and the main drivers of their functional variation (such as rapid human-induced environmental change and climate change).

Declining life expectancy in the Great Lakes region: contributors to Black and white longevity change across educational attainment

BACKGROUND

The East North Central Census division (aka the Great Lakes region) experienced a decrease in life expectancy of 0.3 years from 2014 to 2016 - one of the largest declines across the nine Census divisions. Disadvantaged groups that typically have below-average life expectancy, including Black individuals and those without a college education, may have been disproportionately affected by this longevity shift. This investigation examines life expectancy changes among different sex, race, and education groups in the Great Lakes region, and how specific causes of death contributed to within-group longevity changes over time and across age.

METHODS

We used 2008 to 2017 death counts from the National Center for Health Statistics and American Community Survey population estimates to measure within-group change in life expectancy at age 25 among non-Hispanic Black and white males and females by educational attainment. We decomposed life expectancy change over time for each subgroup by 24 causes of death and measured their contribution to longevity change across 13 age groups.

RESULTS

Among persons with ≤ 12 years of education, white males and females experienced 1.3- and 1.7-year longevity declines respectively, compared to a 0.6-year decline among Black males and a 0.3-year decline among Black females. Life expectancy declined among all groups with 13-15 years of education, but especially Black females, who experienced a 2.2-year loss. With the exception of Black males, all groups with 16 + years of education experienced longevity gains. Homicide contributed 0.34 years to longevity decline among Black males with ≤ 12 years of education. Drug poisoning made large contributions to longevity losses among Black females with ≤ 12 years of education (0.31 years), white males and females with 13-15 years of education (0.35 and 0.21 years, respectively), and white males and females with ≤ 12 years of education (0.92 and 0.65 years, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Public health efforts to reduce the risks of homicide among Black males without a college education and drug poisoning among all groups could improve life expectancy and reduce racial and educational longevity disparities in the Great Lakes region.

Bioaccumulation of perfluoroalkyl substances in the Lake Erie food web

The bioaccumulation and biomagnification of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the Lake Erie food web was investigated by analyzing surface water and biological samples including 10 taxa of fish species, 2 taxa of benthos and zooplankton. The carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotopic composition and fatty acids profiles of biological samples were used to evaluate the food web structure and assess the biomagnification of PFAS. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) dominated the total PFAS (ΣPFAS) concentration (50-90% of ΣPFAS concentration), followed by C9-C11 perfluorinated carboxylic acids (PFCAs). The highest PFOS concentrations (79 ± 4.8 ng/g, wet weight (wwt)) and ΣPFAS (88 ± 5.2 ng/g, wwt) were detected in yellow perch (Perca flavescens). The C8-C14 PFAS biomagnification factors (BMFs) between apex piscivorous fish and prey fish were found to be generally greater than 1, indicative of PFAS biomagnification, while biodilution (BMF<1) was observed between planktivorous fish and zooplankton. Trophic magnification factors (TMFs) of C8-C14 PFCA were not correlated with perfluoroalkyl chain length. The C4-C9 PFAS were detected in the surface water of Lake Erie, and PFBA was found to have the highest concentrations (2.1-2.8 ng/L) among all PFAS detected. The log of bioaccumulation factor (BAF) was found to generally increase with increasing log K_ow for C6, 8, and 9 PFAS in all selected species from three tropic levels.

Trends and predictors of wetland conversion in urbanizing environments

Wetlands provide critical ecosystem services including flood mitigation and habitat for diverse species, but globally, many wetlands have been destroyed. In urban areas and surrounding urban-rural fringes, many lost wetlands have been indirectly replaced with stormwater management (SWM) ponds. SWM ponds are designed to manage urban stormwater and contaminants, but only provide limited ecosystem services. In our study area, historic extent of wetland loss is partially documented, while more recent losses and SWM pond creation have not been fully reported. We examine wetland loss and SWM pond creation in seven southern Ontario (Canada) municipalities from 2002 to 2010. We then apply a Markov model to project future extent of wetland losses and SWM pond creation, with and without effects of specific land use and land cover types. We find that from 2002 to 2010, 95.5 ha of wetlands were lost, with most being smaller than 2 ha in size. A total area of 111.6 ha of SWM ponds was created, but on average, created SWM ponds were smaller than lost wetlands. Our projections to 2026 suggest wetland losses of 438.1 ha and SWM pond creation of 293.8 ha. We suggest a need for more stringent wetland protection policies to conserve wetlands that still exist in growing municipalities, especially smaller wetlands. Lack of such protection will weaken provisioning of wetland-related ecosystem services, which are more critical than ever in a changing climate.

Mass-Balance Modeling of Metal Loading Rates in the Great Lakes

Major elements and nutrients are key water quality monitoring targets in the Great Lakes, but large-scale and long-term data for (trace) metals remains comparatively scarce. Consequently, the sources and processes controlling metal loading rates and potential accumulation in the lakes are not as well constrained. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of select metal loads in the Great Lakes basin, aggregating tributary and connecting channel loads as well as estimates for atmospheric input and sedimentation. In total, 26,845 hydrometric and water quality datapoints from major environmental surveillance programs were compiled into mass-balance calculations and dynamic simulations for 1980-2020. Conservative element (Na, Cl) loads were used to calibrate the black-box approach, and mass-balance for these elements could be achieved at ≥90% and long-term trends accurately reproduced. In contrast, biogeochemically reactive (trace) metals Cu, Ni, Zn and Pb displayed highly variable source-sink behavior across the Great Lakes. Our results show that i) atmospheric inputs, tributary loads, and sedimentation all affect the concentrations and temporal trends of the studied metals but differently in the upper versus lower lakes, ii) smaller tributaries can be disproportionately important to lake-wide metal budgets, and iii) current loading rates may yield increasing lake-wide average Cl concentrations (e.g., up to 2.3 mg/L in Lake Superior) but decreasing metal concentrations (e.g., down to <0.25 μg/L Cu in Lake Ontario) by 2100. This work provides important quantitative baselines for metal loads in the Great Lakes and may help optimize surveillance and management strategies for the preservation of Great Lakes water quality.

Evidence of complementarity between targeted and non-targeted analysis based on liquid and gas-phase chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry for screening halogenated persistent organic pollutants in environmental matrices

This study explored the complementarity between targeted (TS) and non-targeted screening (NTS) based on liquid and gas-phase chromatography coupled to (high-resolution) mass spectrometry (LC-/GC-(HR)MS) for the comprehensive characterization of organohalogen fingerprints within a set of Lake Ontario lake trout samples. The concentrations of 86 legacy, emerging and novel halogenated compounds (HCs), were determined through 4 TS approaches involving no less than 6 hyphenated systems. In parallel, an innovative NTS strategy, involving both LC and GC-Q-Orbitrap, was implemented to specifically highlight halogenated signals. Non-targeted HRMS data were processed under the HaloSeeker software based on Cl and Br isotopic ratio and mass defect to extend the screening to unsuspected and unknown HCs. A total of 195 halogenated mass spectral features were characterized in the Lake Ontario lake trout, including well known HCs (PCBs, PBDEs, PBBs, DDT and their degradation products), emerging HCs (novel brominated flame retardants, short-, medium- and long-chain chlorinated paraffins) or suggested molecular formula (mainly polychlorinated ones). Among the 122 HCs highlighted by TS, only 21 were identified by NTS. These results fueled a discussion on the potential and limitations of both approaches, and the current position of NTS within environmental and health monitoring programs.

Biomonitoring of exposure to Great Lakes contaminants among licensed anglers and Burmese refugees in Western New York: Toxic metals and persistent organic pollutants, 2010-2015

Between 2010 and 2015, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) conducted a biomonitoring program to gather exposure data on Great Lakes contaminants among licensed anglers and Burmese refugees living in western New York who ate locally caught fish. Four hundred and nine adult licensed anglers and 206 adult Burmese refugees participated in this program. Participants provided blood and urine samples and completed a detailed questionnaire. Herein, we present blood metal levels (cadmium, lead, and total mercury) and serum persistent organic pollutant concentrations [polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), and trans-nonachlor]. Multiple linear regression was applied to investigate the associations between analyte concentrations and indicators of fish consumption (locally caught fish meals, store-bought fish meals, and consuming fish/shellfish in the past week). Licensed anglers consumed a median of 16 locally caught fish meals and 22 store-bought fish meals while Burmese refugees consumed a median of 106 locally caught fish meals and 104 store-bought fish/shellfish meals in the past year. Compared to the general U.S. adult population, licensed anglers had higher blood lead and mercury levels; and Burmese refuges had higher blood cadmium, lead, and mercury, and higher serum DDE levels. Eating more locally caught fish was associated with higher blood lead, blood mercury, and serum ∑PCBs concentrations among licensed anglers. Licensed anglers and Burmese refugees who reported fish/shellfish consumption in the past week had elevated blood mercury levels compared with those who reported no consumption. Among licensed anglers, eating more store-bought fish meals was also associated with higher blood mercury levels. As part of the program, NYSDOH staff provided fish advisory outreach and education to all participants on ways to reduce their exposures, make healthier choices of fish to eat, and waters to fish from. Overall, our findings on exposure levels and fish consumption provide information to support the development and implementation of exposure reduction public health actions.

Biomonitoring of toxic metals, organochlorine pesticides, and polybrominated biphenyl 153 in Michigan urban anglers

The 32-mile Detroit River and surrounding tributaries have been designated as a Great Lakes Area of Concern due to pollution from decades of municipal and industrial discharges, sewer overflows and urban development. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry and the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services conducted a biomonitoring study to assess exposures to persistent toxic substances in Detroit urban shoreline anglers who may be at high exposure risk due to consumption of locally caught fish. Using a modified venue-based sampling approach, 287 adult shoreline anglers along the Detroit River were recruited and participated in the program. Study participants provided blood and urine specimens and completed a questionnaire interview. In this report, we examine percentile estimates for blood lead, blood manganese, urine arsenic, urine mercury, urine cadmium, organochlorine pesticides in serum (mirex, hexachlorobenzene, chlordane), and serum polybrominated biphenyl 153 (PBB 153) concentrations among study participants. Multiple linear regression was used to identify predictors of contaminant concentrations. The Detroit urban anglers' blood lead concentrations were 2 times higher than the general adult U.S. population (median (95% CI): 2.9 μg/dL (1.8-2.3) vs. 0.94 μg/dL (0.90-0.98)). PBB 153 levels were 1.8 times higher than the general adult U.S. population at the 95th percentile (95th percentile, 95% CI: 62.7 ng/g of lipid, 53.2-75.2 vs. 34.6 ng/g of lipid, 12.8-66.8). Percentile estimates of the other study pollutants were similar to background levels found in the general U.S. population. Eating more locally caught fish was not associated with increased body burdens for any of the contaminants examined in this report. Higher blood lead was associated with increased age, male sex, current smoking, residing in a home built before 1960, an annual income less than $25,000, and a work history of lead paint removal. Evidence of PBB exposure in our study cohort likely reflects the continued effect of a widespread contamination of livestock feed in 1973 among Michigan's lower peninsula population. These study results help determine if the pollutants examined warrant further consideration in subsequent population-based biomonitoring of frequent consumers of fish from the Detroit River and surrounding waterways. The biomonitoring data from this study also served to inform public health officials regarding the potential need for environmental public health actions to reduce harmful exposures.

Assessing exposures to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in two populations of Great Lakes Basin fish consumers in Western New York State

BACKGROUND

Fish and other seafood are an important dietary source of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure in many areas of the world, and PFAS were found to be pervasive in fish from the Great Lakes area. Few studies, however, have examined the associations between Great Lakes Basin fish consumption and PFAS exposure. Many licensed anglers and Burmese refugees and immigrants residing in western New York State consume fish caught from the Great Lakes and surrounding waters, raising their risk of exposure to environmental contaminants including PFAS. The aims of this study were to: 1) present the PFAS exposure profile of the licensed anglers and Burmese refugees and 2) examine the associations between serum PFAS levels and local fish consumption.

METHODS

Licensed anglers (n = 397) and Burmese participants (n = 199) provided blood samples and completed a detailed questionnaire in 2013. We measured 12 PFAS in serum. Multiple linear regression was used to assess associations between serum PFAS concentrations and self-reported consumption of fish from Great Lakes waters.

RESULTS

Licensed anglers and Burmese participants reported consuming a median of 16 (IQR: 6-36) and 88 (IQR: 44-132) meals of locally caught fish in the year before sample collection, respectively (data for Burmese group restricted to 10 months of the year). Five PFAS were detected in almost all study participants (PFOS, PFOA, PFHxS, PFNA and PFDA; 97.5-100%). PFOS had the highest median serum concentration in licensed anglers (11.6 ng/mL) and the Burmese (35.6 ng/mL), approximately two and six times that of the U.S. general population, respectively. Serum levels of other PFAS in both groups were generally low and comparable to those in the general U.S.

POPULATION

Among licensed anglers, Great Lakes Basin fish meals over the past year were positively associated with serum PFOS (P < 0.0001), PFDA (P < 0.0001), PFHxS (P = 0.01), and PFNA (P = 0.02) and the number of years consuming locally caught fish was positively associated with serum PFOS (P = 0.01) and PFDA (P = 0.01) levels. In the Burmese group, consuming Great Lakes Basin fish more than three times a week in the past summer was positively associated with serum PFOS (P = 0.004) and PFDA (P = 0.02) among the Burmese of non-Karen ethnicity, but not among those of Karen ethnicity, suggesting potential ethnic differences in PFAS exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Great Lakes Basin fish consumption was associated with an increase in blood concentrations of some PFAS, and especially of PFOS, among licensed anglers and Burmese refugees and immigrants in western New York State. In the Burmese population, there may be other important PFAS exposure routes related to residential history and ethnicity. Continued outreach efforts to increase fish advisory awareness and reduce exposure to contaminants are needed among these populations.

Source apportionment of perfluoroalkyl substances in Great Lakes fish

Due to the complex sources and fate of perfluoroalkyl substance (PFAS), their source apportionment in the environment remains a challenge. A data set of 11 straight-chain PFAS in 139 samples of fish in the Great Lakes was analyzed using positive matrix factorization (PMF) to investigate their primary sources, whose spatial variations were examined against the surrounding environmental factors. PMF analysis produced five fingerprints. Factor 1 (72% of Σ₁₁PFAS, dominated by PFOS) probably represented emissions from primary sources (such as consumer products) and secondary sources (precursors), and increased in average abundance from west to east across the Great Lakes. Factor 2 (13% of Σ₁₁PFAS) and factor 3 (7% of Σ₁₁PFAS), highly loaded with long-chain PFAS and PFNA, respectively, were thought to represent PVDF manufacture or processing in metal plating. They showed higher contributions in sparsely populated Lakes Superior and Huron. Factor 4 (5% of Σ₁₁PFAS, highly loaded with PFOS and PFHxS) presented hot spots near current and former air force bases, suggesting it was related to aqueous film-forming foams (AFFFs). Factor 5 (4% of Σ₁₁PFAS) contained primarily PFOS and PFOSA, which may imply metabolism of precursors (PFOSA) to PFOS in vivo. Unexpectedly, the spatial trends of the five sources all showed abnormally low values near the more urbanized Chicago and Milwaukee in Lake Michigan, which may be due to their unique wastewater and stormwater infrastructure or may arise from atmospheric transport of precursors. Our study indicated that PMF was an effective tool to identify sources of PFAS in fish despite absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) processes which might alter fingerprints in fish relative to their surrounding environment.

Spatial distribution and air-water exchange of organophosphate esters in the lower Great Lakes

Organophosphate esters (OPEs) have been detected at elevated concentrations in the Great Lakes region, dwarfing other flame retardants, such as polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs), as chemicals of emerging concern (CECs). This prompted us to deploy polyethylene (PE) passive samplers in air and water column of the lower Great Lake region (Lake Erie and Lake Ontario) to detect gaseous and dissolved OPEs, evaluate their occurrence and spatial distribution, and estimate their air-water gas exchange fluxes. The median concentration of the total dissolved and gaseous phase OPEs detected (Σ₉OPEs) were 95 ng L^-1 and 404 pg m^-3, respectively, during April-November 2014. Gaseous and dissolved concentrations were dominated by chlorinated compounds, in particular (tris(2-chloroethyl) phosphate (TCEP) and tris(2-chloroisopropyl) phosphate (TCPP), while tri-n-butyl phosphate (TnBP) was the dominant non-chlorinated OPEs in both media. Decreasing concentration gradients from shoreline/nearshore to offshore sites for both gaseous and aqueous OPEs reflect anthropogenic influence from the adjacent rural and urban regions. The partial dependence of gaseous OPEs on temperature indicate the importance of volatilization from local sources, fresh emissions as well as advection from distant sources to air. Almost all OPEs underwent net gas-phase deposition to the lakes, dominated by TCEP and TCPPs with median fluxes of -3980 ng/m²/day and -1320 ng/m²/day; the exception was TnBP, which underwent volatilization with the median fluxes of 1980 ng/m²/day. For all air-water pairs, the gaseous diffusive fluxes were 2-4 orders of magnitude greater than the estimated particle dry deposition fluxes.

Why does the public support or oppose agricultural nutrient runoff regulations? The effects of political orientation, environmental worldview, and policy specific beliefs

This research examines public acceptability of regulations to reduce agricultural nutrient runoff and curb Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). We tested the effects of two novel policy specific beliefs including support for farmers' autonomy and support for external accountability. We also simultaneously tested the direct and indirect effects of political orientation and environmental worldview through a Direct Effect Model and a Mediation Model using structural equation modelling. Survey data were collected from 729 Ohio residents collected in November 2018. The specific regulatory policy measure we targeted is fines on excessive agricultural runoff. As hypothesized, autonomy beliefs negatively affect, and accountability positively affect support for fines. Both models revealed good fits. the direct effects of environmental worldviews political orientation were not supported. Instead, environmental worldviews indirectly increased support for fines through increased accountability beliefs and diminished autonomy beliefs. From the results, we suggest that when proposing suitable regulations for specific sites, policy makers and interest groups should be aware of differences in public support for farmer autonomy and external accountability, and that such differences are likely rooted in environmental worldviews. The study also suggests a need for coupled ecological and social studies that assess the likelihood of regional agricultural producers voluntarily adopting conservation practices and forecast the effectiveness of potential accountability measures.

Concentrations and source identification of PAHs, alkyl-PAHs and other organic contaminants in sediments from a contaminated harbor in the Laurentian Great Lakes

As a result of historical industrial activity, the sediments in the inner harbor of Owen Sound Bay in the northeastern part of Lake Huron in Ontario, Canada are contaminated with organic compounds. The present study showed that the concentrations of Ʃ PAH_16-EPA in all sediments in the inner harbor were above the sediment quality guidelines for the province of Ontario, Canada, with mean Ʃ PAH_16-EPA concentrations at the most contaminated site of 46,000 μg/kg dry weight. The concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls, brominated diphenyl ethers, and organochlorine compounds were all below sediment quality guidelines. The patterns of PAH and alkyl-PAH compounds in sediment cores indicated that contamination is from mixed sources, with a strong indication of pyrogenic contamination from industries that used to operate in the area, including a coal gasification plant. Other areas of the bay are impacted by petrogenic contamination, potentially from spills of fuel. The even distribution of PAH and alkyl-PAH compounds throughout core profiles at depths up to 25 cm indicates that this is a dynamic system and contaminated sediments are not being covered by deposition of less contaminated sediments. This study illustrates the value of determining the patterns of both PAH and alkyl-PAH compounds in sediments for regulatory purposes and also for forensic source tracking.

Uncertainty analysis of the performance of a management system for achieving phosphorus load reduction to surface waters

The recent re-eutrophication of Lake Erie suggests an inadequate phosphorus management system that results in excessive loads to the lake. In response, governments in Canada and the U.S. have issued a new policy objective: 40% reductions in total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) loads relative to 2008. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 31000 is a risk management standard. One of its analytical tools is the ISO 31010:2009 Bowtie Risk Analysis Tool, a tool that structures the cause-effect-impact pathway of risk but lacks the ability to capture the probability of reducing risk associated with different management systems. Here, we combined the Bowtie Risk Analysis Tool with a Bayesian belief network model to analyze the probability of different agricultural management systems of best management practices (BMPs) to achieve the 40% reductions in TP and DRP loads using different adoption rates. The commonly used soil conservation BMPs (e.g., reduced tillage) have a low probability of reducing TP and DRP to achieve the policy objective; while it can achieve the TP load reduction objective at increased adoptions rates >40%, it does not achieve the DRP load reduction objective, and in fact has the unintended consequence of increasing DRP loads. If decision makers continue to rely on soil conservation BMPs, the trade-offs between meeting objectives of different forms of phosphorus will require deciding whether the management priority is to achieve 40% load reduction objectives or to prevent further increases in DRP loads, the identified culprit causing the repeated algal blooms. In contrast, TP- and DRP-effective BMPS had higher probabilities of achieving the policy objective, especially at increased adoption rates >20%. The integration of Bayesian belief networks with the ISO risk management standard allows decision makers to determine the most probable outcomes of their management decisions, and to track and prepare for less probable outcomes, thereby decreasing the risk of failing to achieve policy objectives.

Microplastics entering northwestern Lake Ontario are diverse and linked to urban sources

The sources of microplastics and other anthropogenic particles in freshwater are not well understood. The Greater Toronto Area, Canada's most populous urban area, offers a great study area for understanding the sources and pathways for microplastics to enter freshwater ecosystems. Here, we quantified and characterized microplastics and other anthropogenic particles from Lake Ontario surface waters and source waters (including stormwater runoff, agricultural runoff, and treated wastewater effluent) to better understand sources to the Great Lakes. Anthropogenic particle concentrations in lake samples were 0.8 particles L^-1. In source waters, average concentrations were relatively higher in stormwater and wastewater, with 15.4 particles L^-1 and 13.3 particles L^-1, respectively, compared to 0.9 particles L^-1 on average in agricultural runoff. Source waters revealed distinct signatures related to the morphologies of anthropogenic particles, e.g., fibers in wastewater. In addition, many upstream watershed characteristics were found to be significant predictors of anthropogenic particle concentration. Proximity to urban areas were positively correlated to anthropogenic particle concentrations. Future studies should focus on local source-apportionment to inform management and prevent further contamination of microplastics to freshwater ecosystems.

Cyanobacterial blooms modify food web structure and interactions in western Lake Erie

With anthropogenic eutrophication and climate change causing an increase in cyanobacterial blooms worldwide, the need to understand the consequences of these blooms on aquatic ecosystems is paramount. Key questions remain unanswered with respect to how cyanobacteria blooms affect the structure of aquatic food webs, the foraging abilities of higher consumers, and the potential for cyanotoxins (e.g., microcystins [MCs]) to accumulate in fish. Toward addressing these uncertainties, physicochemical attributes, water (for MCs), phytoplankton, zooplankton, and epipelagic and benthic age-0 fish were sampled at 75 sites (44 sites for fish) of varying cyanobacteria concentration (0.1-44 μg/L) in western Lake Erie during the cyanobacteria bloom season, 2013-2014. Sites with high cyanobacteria biomass were characterized by Microcystis spp. (84-100% of biomass), detectible levels of MCs (maximum = 10.8 μg/L), and low water transparency (minimum = 0.25 m). Counter to expectations, strong positive relationships were found between cyanobacteria concentration and the biomass of several herbivorous zooplankton taxa (e.g., Daphnia, Diaphanosoma spp., Bosmina (formerly Eubosmina) coregoni, and Calanoida spp.). Expectations regarding fish were partly supported (e.g., diet selectivity varied across a cyanobacteria gradient) and partly not (e.g., consumption of zooplankton did not differ between bloom and non-bloom sites). These findings show that cyanobacterial blooms can strongly affect the distribution, composition, and interactions of zooplankton and fish, sometimes in surprising ways, highlighting the need to further explore their impact on aquatic food webs.

Biomonitoring of populations in Western New York at risk for exposure to Great Lakes contaminants

The New York State Department of Health conducted the Healthy Fishing Communities Program in collaboration with the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry to assess human exposure to contaminants common to Lake Ontario, Lake Erie and surrounding rivers and waterways among populations in western New York State who eat locally caught fish. The program enrolled licensed anglers and Burmese refugees and immigrants, living near four designated Great Lakes Areas of Concern: Buffalo River, Niagara River, Eighteenmile Creek, and the Rochester Embayment. These target populations were sampled and enrolled independently into the program between February and October of 2013. A core set of contaminants were measured in blood and urine of 409 licensed anglers and 206 Burmese refugees and immigrants which included lead, cadmium, mercury, PCBs, PBDEs, organochlorine pesticides (hexachlorobenzene, mirex, DDT, DDE, and chlordane and its metabolites oxychlordane and trans-Nonachlor), and PFOS and PFOA. Biomonitoring results showed that both groups had higher geometric means for blood lead, total blood mercury, and serum PFOS compared to the 2013-2014 NHANES reference levels. The Burmese refugee group also showed higher geometric means for creatinine-adjusted urine mercury and lipid-adjusted serum DDE compared to national levels. Licensed angler participants reported eating a median of 16 locally caught fish meals in the past year. Burmese participants consumed local fish throughout the year, and most frequently in the summer (median 39 fish meals or 3 times a week). The study results provide valuable information on populations at high risk of exposure to contaminants in the Great Lakes Basin of western New York. The results provide the foundation for developing and implementing public health actions to reduce potential exposures to Great Lakes pollutants.

Sedimentary records of polychlorinated biphenyls in the East China Marginal Seas and Great Lakes: Significance of recent rise of emissions in China and environmental implications

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in dated sediment cores from the East China Marginal Seas (ECMSs) and the chronology of the net fluxes to sediments were analyzed. The accumulation of 27 PCBs (ΣPCBs) in the ECMS sediments is about 5-26 ng cm^-2, with the net depositional fluxes of ΣPCBs 10 times lower than those observed in the Great Lakes during the 1960s-1970s. Exponential increases in PCB deposition to the ECMS sediments since the 1990s were observed, which closely follows the fast growth of PCB emissions from industrial thermal processes and e-waste related sources in China. Recent PCB fluxes to the study sites in the ECMSs and the Great Lakes are comparable; the former surged forward with a rising tendency, while the latter showed continued decline after the late 1970s. Due to the different PCB application histories and sources between the two regions, the ECMS sediments may remain as a net sink for land-derived PCBs, while sediments in the Great Lake may have been acting as a secondary source releasing PCBs to water. A higher proportion of trichlorobiphenyls in the ECMS sediments than the Great Lakes was indicated, which may imply the net transport of atmospheric PCBs from China.

Municipal wastewater effluent affects fish communities: A multi-year study involving two wastewater treatment plants

Although effluent from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is a major stressor in receiving environments, relatively few studies have addressed how its discharge affects natural fish communities. Here, we assessed fish community composition over three years along a gradient of effluent exposure from two distinct WWTPs within an International Joint Commission Area of Concern on the Great Lakes (Hamilton Harbour, Canada). We found that fish communities changed with distance from both WWTPs, and were highly dissimilar between sites that were closest to and furthest from the wastewater outfall. Despite differences in the size and treatment technology of the WWTPs and receiving habitats downstream, we found that the sites nearest the outfalls had the highest fish abundances and contained a common set of signature fish species (i.e., round goby Neogobius melanostomus, green sunfish Lepomis cyanellus). Non-native and stress tolerant species were also more abundant near one of the studied WWTPs when compared to the reference site, and the number of young-of-the-year fish collected did not vary along the effluent exposure gradients. Overall, we show that fish are attracted to wastewater outfalls raising the possibility that these sites may act as an ecological trap.

Biomonitoring of mercury and persistent organic pollutants in Michigan urban anglers and association with fish consumption

The 32-mile Detroit River and surrounding tributaries have been designated as a Great Lakes Area of Concern due to pollution from decades of municipal and industrial discharges, sewer overflows and urban development. Key pollutants in fish samples from the Detroit River include mercury, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), dioxins and furans. A biomonitoring study was conducted to assess exposures to these persistent toxic substances in Detroit urban shoreline anglers who may be at high exposure risk due to consumption of locally caught fish. Using a modified venue-based sampling approach, 287 adult shoreline anglers along the Detroit River were recruited and participated in the program. Study participants provided blood and urine specimens and completed a questionnaire following informed consent. We examined percentile estimates for total blood mercury, PCBs, DDE, and dioxin-like total toxic equivalency (TEQ) concentrations among study participants. Multiple linear regression was used to identify important predictors of contaminant concentrations. Participants consumed a median of 64 Detroit River caught fish meals in the past year. The Detroit urban anglers' median total blood mercury concentrations was 3.2 times higher than that for the general adult U.S. population. PCB concentrations among the Detroit anglers aged 18-39 years were higher than the U.S. population of the same race/ethnicity. Elevated levels of DDE and total TEQ concentrations were not observed in the cohort. Eating more locally caught fish was associated with higher total blood mercury and serum PCB concentrations. The biomonitoring data served to inform public health officials and help guide environmental public health actions to reduce harmful exposures.

Dioxins in Great Lakes fish: Past, present and implications for future monitoring

Dioxins/furans are considered among the most toxic anthropogenic chemicals, and are ubiquitous in the environment including in the North American Great Lakes, which contain one fifth of the world's surface freshwater. Our exposure to dioxins/furans is mainly through contaminated diet. Elevated levels of dioxins/furans in Great Lakes fish have resulted in issuance of fish consumption advisories. Here we examine spatial/temporal trends of dioxins/furans in the edible portion (fillet) of fish from the Canadian waters of the Great Lakes using the data collected by the Province of Ontario, Canada. Our analyses show that the Toxic Equivalent (TEQ) dioxin/furan concentrations declined between 1989 and 2013 in Lake Trout from Lakes Ontario, Huron and Superior by 91%, 78% and 73%, respectively, but increased in Lake Whitefish from Lake Erie by 138%. An expanded dataset created by combining our data with historical Lake Ontario Lake Trout measurements from the literature showed a greater decline of >96% (from 64 to 2.3 pg/g) between 1977 and 2013. Measurements collected for 30 types of fish show overall low levels but local/regional concerns at some locations in Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario. Dioxins/furans are globally present in foodstuff and "zero concentration" target is considered impractical. Based on the observations for the Great Lakes in the context of risk to human health from eating fish, it is concluded that comprehensive monitoring of dioxins/furans can be replaced with targeted locations and/or indicator species, and the saved resources can be more efficiently utilized for monitoring of other priority or emerging contaminants.

Biomonitoring programs in Michigan, Minnesota and New York to assess human exposure to Great Lakes contaminants

Over the past century, industrialization and urban practices have resulted in the contamination of the Great Lakes ecosystem-the world's largest surface freshwater system-that provides drinking water and recreation to more than 40 million residents. In 2010, the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative was launched to accelerate efforts to protect and restore the Great Lakes and surrounding areas. Funded by GLRI, the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry initiated the Biomonitoring of Great Lakes Populations (BGLP) program. The objective of the program is to assess human exposure to legacy and emerging contaminants in the Great Lakes by measuring the body burden of contaminants in potentially susceptible populations. The BGLP program consists of a series of cross-sectional studies carried out collaboratively with states that are funded through ATSDR. The first BGLP Program (BGLP-I) began in 2010 and was completed in September 2015 through cooperative agreements with state health departments in Michigan, Minnesota, and New York. The three state programs targeted susceptible adult populations living in designated areas of contamination. Contaminants measured in all populations include mercury, lead, mirex, hexachlorobenzene, dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, and selected polychlorinated biphenyl congeners. In addition, some chemicals of emerging concern, such as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, were measured in several populations. The biomonitoring results helped guide public health actions to mitigate chemical exposures in these vulnerable Great Lakes populations. We provide an overview of the BGLP-I program's study populations, designs, and general methods. This overview provides a lead-in for subsequent manuscripts that present human biomonitoring data for legacy and emerging contaminants in culturally diverse susceptible populations-i.e., shoreline anglers, sport anglers, American Indians, and Burmese immigrants-residing in seven areas of concern.

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans associated with settling particles in Lake Ontario

Sediment traps were deployed at seven sites in the western and central basins of Lake Ontario for calculation of concentrations and down fluxes for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and dibenzofurans (PCDFs) to assess ongoing loadings to Lake Ontario from the Niagara River watershed. Traps were deployed at multiple depths (beginning at 20 m) during two seasonal time periods at stations impacted by the outflow of the Niagara River, and stations reflecting deeper water offshore conditions. Settling particles were collected seasonally to assess the influence of physical characteristics of the water column, i.e., isothermal conditions vs. stratified conditions, on concentrations and fluxes of PCDD/Fs. At all stations and for all depth intervals, PCDD/F concentrations were higher in the winter sampling period (range of 3120-10,600 pg g^-1), compared to the spring - summer - fall time period (range of 320-6900 pg g^-1). These results indicated bottom sediments in central and western Lake Ontario were more highly-contaminated, compared to contemporary particulate material entering the lake via the Niagara River or resulting from shoreline erosion. However, assessment of PCDD/F congener profiles and ratios also indicated source areas within the Niagara River watershed continued to episodically contribute loadings to Lake Ontario. The results also indicated changes in discharges of PCDD/Fs from sources in the Niagara River result in changes in congener profiles in settling particles, which can be detected by continued monitoring.

Spatial and temporal trends in poly- and per-fluorinated compounds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Erie, Ontario and St. Clair

The temporal and spatial trends in sediment of 22 poly- and perfluorinated (PFAS) compounds were investigated in the southern Great Lakes Erie and Ontario as well as Lake St. Clair. Surface concentrations measured by Ponar grab samples indicated a trend for greater concentrations near to urban sites. Mean concentrations ∑₂₂PFAS were 15.6, 18.2 and 19 ng g^-1 dm for Lakes St. Clair, Erie and Ontario, respectively. Perfluoro-n-butanoic acid (PFBA) and Perfluoro-n-hexanoic acid (PFHxA) were frequently determined in surface sediment and upper core samples indicating a shift in use patterns. Where PFBA was identified it was at relatively great concentrations typically >10 ng g^-1 dm. However as PFBA and PFHxA are less likely to bind to sediment they may be indicative of pore water concentrations Sedimentation rates between Lake Erie and Lake Ontario differ greatly with greater rates observed in Lake Erie. In Lake Ontario, in general concentrations of PFAS observed in core samples closely follow the increase in use along with an observable change due to regulation implementation in the 1970s for water protection. However some of the more water soluble PFAS were observed in deeper core layers than the time of production could account for, indicating potential diffusion within the sediment. Given the greater sedimentation rates in Lake Erie, it was hoped to observe in greater resolution changes since the mid-1990s. However, though some decrease was observed at some locations the results are not clear. Many cores in Lake Erie had clearly observable gas voids, indicative of gas ebullition activity due to biogenic production, there were also observable mussel beds that could indicate mixing by bioturbation of core layers.

Reproductive success and contaminant associations in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) used to assess a Beneficial Use Impairment in U.S. and Binational Great Lakes' Areas of Concern

During 2010-2014, tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) reproductive success was monitored at 68 sites across all 5 Great Lakes, including 58 sites located within Great Lakes Areas of Concern (AOCs) and 10 non-AOCs. Sample eggs were collected from tree swallow clutches and analyzed for contaminants including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dioxins and furans, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, and 34 other organic compounds. Contaminant data were available for 360 of the clutches monitored. Markov chain multistate modeling was used to assess the importance of 5 ecological variables and 11 of the dominant contaminants in explaining the pattern of egg and nestling failure rates. Four of 5 ecological variables (Female Age, Date within season, Year, and Site) were important explanatory variables. Of the 11 contaminants, only total dioxin and furan toxic equivalents (TEQs) explained a significant amount of the egg failure probabilities. Neither total PCBs nor PCB TEQs explained the variation in egg failure rates. In a separate analysis, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon exposure in nestling diet, used as a proxy for female diet during egg laying, was significantly correlated with the daily probability of egg failure. The 8 sites within AOCs which had poorer reproduction when compared to 10 non-AOC sites, the measure of impaired reproduction as defined by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, were associated with exposure to dioxins and furan TEQs, PAHs, or depredation. Only 2 sites had poorer reproduction than the poorest performing non-AOC. Using a classic (non-modeling) approach to estimating reproductive success, 82% of nests hatched at least 1 egg, and 75% of eggs laid, excluding those collected for contaminant analyses, hatched.

Telemetry-Determined Habitat Use Informs Multi-Species Habitat Management in an Urban Harbour

Widespread human development has led to impairment of freshwater coastal wetlands and embayments, which provide critical and unique habitat for many freshwater fish species. This is particularly evident in the Laurentian Great Lakes, where such habitats have been severely altered over the last century as a result of industrial activities, urbanization, dredging and infilling. In Toronto Harbour, extensive restoration efforts have been directed towards improving the amount and quality of aquatic habitat, especially for fishes. To evaluate the effectiveness of this restoration work, use of the restored area by both target species and the fish community as a whole must be assessed. Individuals from four species (Common Carp, Largemouth Bass, Northern Pike and Yellow Perch) were tagged and tracked continuously for 1 year using an acoustic telemetry array in Toronto Harbour area of Lake Ontario. Daily site fidelity was estimated using a mixed-effects logistic regression model. Daily site fidelity was influenced by habitat restoration and its interactions with species and body size, as well as season and its interactions with species and body size. Daily site fidelity was higher in restored sites compared to non-restored sites for Yellow Perch and Northern Pike, but lower for Largemouth Bass and Common Carp. For all species, daily site fidelity estimates were highest during the summer and lowest during autumn. The approach used here has merit for evaluating restoration success and informing future habitat management activities. Creating diverse habitats that serve multiple functions and species are more desirable than single-function-oriented or single-species-oriented designs.

Concentration and distribution of contaminants in lake trout and walleye from the Laurentian Great Lakes (2008-2012)

Biomonitoring programs for persistent, bioaccumulative, and/or toxic chemicals of concern in fish tissues have been operated by the governments of Canada and the United States in the Great Lakes since the 1970's. The objectives of these programs are to assess concentrations of harmful chemicals in whole body top predator fish as an indicator of ecosystem health and to infer potential harm to fish and fish consuming wildlife in the Great Lakes Basin. Chemicals of interest are selected based upon national and binational commitments, risk assessment, and regulation, and include a wide range of compounds. This review summarizes all available data generated by Environment Canada and the United States Environmental Protection Agency for chemicals measured in whole body homogenates of Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and Walleye (Sander vitreus) for the time period spanning 2008 to 2012 from each of the five Great Lakes. The summary shows that concentrations of legacy compounds, such as, POPs listed in the Stockholm Convention and mercury continue to dominate the chemical burden of Great Lakes fish. This assessment, and others like it, can guide the creation of environmental quality targets where they are lacking, optimize chemical lists for monitoring, and prioritize chemicals of concern under agreements such as the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement and the Stockholm Convention.

Levels of persistent contaminants in relation to fish consumption among older male anglers in Wisconsin

Fish are an important source of nutrients which may reduce risk of adverse health outcomes such as cardiovascular disease; however, fish may also contain significant amounts of environmental pollutants such as mercury, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and perfluorinated compounds (PFCs, also called perfluoroalkyl compounds), which confer increased risk for adverse health effects. The Wisconsin Departments of Health Services and Natural Resources developed a survey instrument, along with a strategy to collect human biological samples to assess the risks and benefits associated with long-term fish consumption among older male anglers in Wisconsin. The target population was men aged 50 years and older, who fish Wisconsin waters and live in the state of Wisconsin. Participants provided blood and hair samples and completed a detailed (paper) questionnaire, which included questions on basic demographics, health status, location of catch and species of fish caught/eaten, consumption of locally caught and commercially purchased fish, and awareness and source of information for local and statewide consumption guidelines. Biological samples were used to assess levels of PCBs, PBDEs, PFCs (blood), and mercury (hair and blood). Quantile regression analysis was used to investigate the associations between biomarker levels and self-reported consumption of fish from the Great Lakes and other areas of concern, other locally caught fish, and commercially purchased fish (meals per year). Respondents had a median age of 60.5 (interquartile range: 56, 67) years. The median fish consumption was 54.5 meals per year, with most fish meals coming from locally-caught fish. Participants had somewhat higher mercury levels compared with the US general population, while levels of other contaminants were similar or lower. Multivariate regression models showed that consumption of fish from the Great Lakes and areas of concern was associated with higher levels of each of the contaminants with the exception of PBDEs, as was consumption of locally caught fish from other water bodies. All commercial fish consumption was also associated with both hair and blood mercury. When looking at specific PCB, PBDE and PFC analytes, consumption of fish from the Great Lakes and areas of concern was associated with higher levels of each of the individual PCB congeners examined, as well as higher levels of all of the PFCs examined, with the exception of PFHxS. Among the PFCs, locally caught fish from other water bodies was also associated with higher levels of each of the congeners examined except PFHxS. Finally, all commercial fish was associated with higher levels of PFHxS.

In vitro immune functions in thiamine-replete and -depleted lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

In this study we examined the impacts of in vivo thiamine deficiency on lake trout leukocyte function measured in vitro. When compared outside the context of individual-specific thiamine concentrations no significant differences were observed in leukocyte bactericidal activity or in concanavalin A (Con A), and phytohemagglutinin-P (PHA-P) stimulated leukocyte proliferation. Placing immune functions into context with the ratio of in vivo liver thiamine monophosphate (TMP--biologically inactive form) to thiamine pyrophosphate (TPP--biologically active form) proved to be the best indicator of thiamine depletion impacts as determined using regression modeling. These observed relationships indicated differential effects on the immune measures with bactericidal activity exhibiting an inverse relationship with TMP to TPP ratios, Con A stimulated mitogenesis exhibiting a positive relationship with TMP to TPP ratios and PHA-P stimulated mitogenesis exhibiting no significant relationships. In addition, these relationships showed considerable complexity which included the consistent observation of a thiamine-replete subgroup with characteristics similar to those seen in the leukocytes from thiamine-depleted fish. When considered together, our observations indicate that lake trout leukocytes experience cell-type specific impacts as well as an altered physiologic environment when confronted with a thiamine-limited state.