Effectiveness and durability of mRNA-1273 BA.4/BA.5 bivalent vaccine (mRNA-1273.222) against SARS-CoV-2 BA.4/BA.5 and XBB sublineages

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 sublineages continue to cause serious COVID-19 disease, but most individuals have not received any COVID-19 vaccine for >1 year. Assessment of long-term effectiveness of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines against circulating sublineages is important to inform the potential need for vaccination with updated vaccines. In this test-negative study at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, sequencing-confirmed BA.4/BA.5- or XBB-related SARS-CoV-2-positive cases (September 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023), were matched 1:3 to SARS-CoV-2-negative controls. We assessed mRNA-1273 bivalent relative (rVE) and absolute vaccine effectiveness (VE) compared to ≥2 or 0 doses of original monovalent vaccine, respectively. The rVE analysis included 20,966 cases and 62,898 controls. rVE (95%CI) against BA.4/BA.5 at 14-60 days and 121-180 days was 52.7% (46.9-57.8%) and 35.5% (-2.8-59.5%) for infection, and 59.3% (49.7-67.0%) and 33.2% (-28.2-68.0%) for Emergency Department/Urgent Care (ED/UC) encounters. For BA.4/BA.5-related hospitalizations, rVE was 71.3% (44.9-85.1%) and 52.0% (-1.2-77.3%) at 14-60 days and 61-120 days, respectively. rVE against XBB at 14-60 days and 121-180 days was 48.8% (33.4-60.7%) and -3.9% (-18.1-11.3%) for infection, 70.7% (52.4-82.0%) and 15.7% (-6.0-33.2%) for ED/UC encounters, and 87.9% (43.8-97.4%) and 57.1% (17.0-77.8%) for hospitalization. VE and subgroup analyses (age, immunocompromised status, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection) results were similar to rVE analyses. rVE of mRNA-1273 bivalent vaccine against BA.4/BA.5 and XBB infections, ED/UC encounters, and hospitalizations waned over time. Periodic revaccination with vaccines targeting emerging variants may be important in reducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Neutralization sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants FL.1 and GE.1 by therapeutic antibodies and XBB sera

Two SARS-CoV-2 XBB sub-variants, FL.1 and GE.1, have been increasing in prevalence worldwide, but limited information is available about their ability to evade the immune system. FL.1 and GE.1 are emerging Omicron XBB variants possessing additional mutations in the spike RBD raising concerns of increased neutralization escape. In this study, we assessed the neutralizing ability of eleven FDA-approved monoclonal antibody combinations against different Omicron variants, including BA.2.75, BA.2.76, BA.4/5, XBB.1.5, and CH.1.1. Among the eleven antibodies, Sotrovimab was the only antibody to show broad neutralization ability against XBB.1.5. However, Sotrovimab showed attenuated neutralization efficiency against recently emerging XBB sub-lineages EG.5, FL.1, and GE.1 compared to XBB.1.5. Additionally, XBB.1.5 seropositive convalescent sera displayed lower neutralization activity against EG.5, FL.1, and GE.1. Overall, our findings present enhanced immune evasion capacity of emerging XBB variants and emphasize the importance of continued monitoring of novel variants.

Genomic Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Dominance of XBB Replacement - China, January-June 2023

Introduction

In the first half of 2023, a global shift was observed towards the predominance of XBB variants. China faced a significant epidemic between late 2022 and early 2023 due to Omicron subvariants BA.5.2 and BF.7. This study aims to depict the evolving variant distribution among provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) in China and explore the factors driving the predominance of XBB replacement.

Methods

Sequences from local and imported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases recorded between January 1 and June 30, 2023, were included. The study analyzed the changing distribution of viral variants and assessed how the prior dominance of specific variants, XBB subvariants, and imported cases influenced the prevalence of the XBB replacement variant.

Results

A total of 56,486 sequences were obtained from local cases, and 8,669 sequences were from imported cases. Starting in April, there was a shift in the prevalence of XBB from imported to local cases, with varying dominance among PLADs. In PLADs previously high in BF.7, the rise of XBB was delayed. A positive correlation was found between XBB proportions in imported cases from January to March and local cases in April. The distribution pattern of XBB subvariants differed between local and imported cases within the same PLAD. No significant differences were noted in the replacement rates of XBB subvariants.

Conclusions

The timing of XBB dominance differed among various PLADs in China in the first half of 2023, correlating closely with the prevalence of XBB variants among imported cases.

Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2: Epidemiological and clinical insights from a tertiary care center in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

The actual burden of the Omicron variants remains unclear. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the epidemiological and clinical features of Omicron-infected patients and investigate factors influencing hospital admission.

METHODS

This retrospective single-center study included individuals with positive SARS-CoV-2 infection, specifically the Omicron variants (XBB, EG or JN), identified through real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assays from January 2022 to December 2023.

RESULTS

A total of 305 Omicron-infected patients were included; (53.11 %) were females and (46.89 %) were males, with a median age of 39 years [interquartile range (IQR): 30, 53]. Underlying diseases, including endocrine/metabolic disorders (22.30 %), hypertension (12.79 %), chronic respiratory disease (10.49 %), and malignancy (9.18 %) were prevalent, while (40.98 %) were medically free. The XBB variant was predominant (73.11 %), followed by JN (20.33 %), and EG variant (6.56 %). The seasonality analysis demonstrates XBB variants' domination in 2022, with a surge to 40 cases in December. The trend continued in 2023, peaking at 76 XBB cases in March. May 2023 reported 38 XBB cases and the emergence of 17 EG instances. Notably, in December, only one XBB case was reported, and 62 instances emerged with the JN variant. Overall, 233 out of 305 cases were reported during flu season (September to March) (76.39 %). Moreover, hospitalization occurred in (16.39 %), with a (1.31 %) mortality rate (all deaths in the JN variant). Multivariable analysis confirmed renal disease, chronic respiratory disease, endocrine/metabolism issues, and polymicrobial infection as positive predictors of hospitalization (p < 0.05). While COVID-19 vaccination significantly reduced hospitalization odds (Odds Ratio: 0.20, p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings contribute valuable insights into Omicron epidemiology and factors influencing hospitalization. The dynamic fluctuations in Omicron variants, particularly XBB, EG, and JN, over 2022 and 2023, with JN emerging as the dominant circulating variant globally, underscore the need for continuous vigilance and urgency for updated vaccine formulations.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological impact of SARS-CoV-2 XBB lineage dissemination in Brazil in 2023

The SARS-CoV-2 XBB is a group of highly immune-evasive lineages of the Omicron variant of concern that emerged by recombining BA.2-descendent lineages and spread worldwide during 2023. In this study, we combine SARS-CoV-2 genomic data (n = 11,065 sequences) with epidemiological data of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) cases collected in Brazil between October 2022 and July 2023 to reconstruct the space-time dynamics and epidemiologic impact of XBB dissemination in the country. Our analyses revealed that the introduction and local emergence of lineages carrying convergent mutations within the Spike protein, especially F486P, F456L, and L455F, propelled the spread of XBB* lineages in Brazil. The average relative instantaneous reproduction numbers of XBB* + F486P, XBB* + F486P + F456L, and XBB* + F486P + F456L + L455F lineages in Brazil were estimated to be 1.24, 1.33, and 1.48 higher than that of other co-circulating lineages (mainly BQ.1*/BE*), respectively. Despite such a growth advantage, the dissemination of these XBB* lineages had a reduced impact on Brazil's epidemiological scenario concerning previous Omicron subvariants. The peak number of SARI cases from SARS-CoV-2 during the XBB wave was approximately 90%, 80%, and 70% lower than that observed during the previous BA.1*, BA.5*, and BQ.1* waves, respectively. These findings revealed the emergence of multiple XBB lineages with progressively increasing growth advantage, yet with relatively limited epidemiological impact in Brazil throughout 2023. The XBB* + F486P + F456L + L455F lineages stand out for their heightened transmissibility, warranting close monitoring in the months ahead.

IMPORTANCE

Brazil was one the most affected countries by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with more than 700,000 deaths by mid-2023. This study reconstructs the dissemination of the virus in the country in the first half of 2023, a period characterized by the dissemination of descendants of XBB.1, a recombinant of Omicron BA.2 lineages evolved in late 2022. The analysis supports that XBB dissemination was marked by the continuous emergence of indigenous lineages bearing similar mutations in key sites of their Spike protein, a process followed by continuous increments in transmissibility, and without repercussions in the incidence of severe cases. Thus, the results suggest that the epidemiological impact of the spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant is influenced by an intricate interplay of factors that extend beyond the virus's transmissibility alone. The study also underlines the need for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance that allows the monitoring of its ever-shifting composition.

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants during the 2023 flu season and beyond in Lebanon

BACKGROUND

Early SARS-CoV-2 variant detection relies on testing and genomic surveillance. The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) has quickly become the dominant type among the previous circulating variants worldwide. Several subvariants have emerged exhibiting greater infectivity and immune evasion. In this study we aimed at studying the prevalence of the Omicron subvariants during the flu season and beyond in Lebanon through genomic screening and at determining the overall standing and trajectory of the pandemic in the country.

METHODS

A total of 155 SARS-CoV-2 RNA samples were sequenced, using Nanopore sequencing technology.

RESULTS

Nanopore sequencing of 155 genomes revealed their distribution over 39 Omicron variants. XBB.1.5 (23.29 %) was the most common, followed by XBB.1.9.1 (10.96 %) and XBB.1.42 (7.5 %). The first batch collected between September and November 2022, included the BA.2.75.2, BA.5.2, BA.5.2.20, BA.5.2.25 and BQ.1.1.5 lineages. Between December 2022 and January 2023, those lineages were replaced by BA.2.75.5, BN.1, BN.1.4, BQ.1, BQ.1.1, BQ.1.1.23, CH.1.1, CM.4 and XBK. Starting February 2023, we observed a gradual emergence and dominance of the recombinant XBB and its sub-lineages (XBB.1, XBB.1.5, XBB.1.5.2, XBB.1.5.3, XBB.1.9, XBB.1.9.1, XBB.1.9.2, XBB.1.16, XBB.1.22 and XBB.1.42).

CONCLUSIONS

The timely detection and characterization of SARS-CoV-2 variants is important to reduce transmission through established disease control measures and to avoid introductions into animal populations that could lead to serious public health implications.

Effectiveness of the adapted bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against hospitalisation in individuals aged ≥ 60 years during the Omicron XBB lineage-predominant period: VEBIS SARI VE network, Europe, February to August, 2023

We conducted a multicentre hospital-based test-negative case-control study to measure the effectiveness of adapted bivalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccines against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Omicron XBB lineage-predominant period in patients aged ≥ 60 years with severe acute respiratory infection from five countries in Europe. Bivalent vaccines provided short-term additional protection compared with those vaccinated > 6 months before the campaign: from 80% (95% CI: 50 to 94) for 14-89 days post-vaccination, 15% (95% CI: -12 to 35) at 90-179 days, and lower to no effect thereafter.

Investigating the role of glycans in Omicron sub-lineages XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16 binding to host receptor using molecular dynamics and binding free energy calculations

Omicron derived lineages viz. BA.2, BA.3, BA.4 BA.5, BF.7 and XBBs show prominence with improved immune escape, transmissibility, infectivity, and pathogenicity in general. Sub-variants, XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16 have shown rapid spread, with mutations embedded throughout the viral genome, including the spike protein. Changing atomic landscapes in spike contributes significantly to modulate host pathogen interactions and infections thereof. In the present work, we computationally analyzed the binding affinities of spike receptor binding domains (RBDs) of XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16 towards human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) compared to Omicron. We have employed simulations and binding energy estimation of molecular complexes of spike-hACE2 to assess the interplay of interaction pattern and effect of mutations if any in the binding mode of the RBDs of these novel mutants. We calculated the binding free energy (BFE) of the RBD of the Omicron, XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16 spike protein to hACE2. We showed that XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16 can bind to human cells more strongly than Omicron due to the increased charge of the RBD, which enhances the electrostatic interactions with negatively charged hACE2. The per-residue decompositions further show that the Asp339His, Asp405Asn and Asn460Lys mutations in the XBBs RBD play a crucial role in enhancing the electrostatic interactions, by acquiring positively charged residues, thereby influencing the formation/loss of interfacial bonds and thus strongly affecting the spike RBD-hACE2 binding affinity. Simulation results also indicate less interference of heterogeneous glycans of XBB.1.5 spike RBD towards binding to hACE2. Moreover, despite having less interaction at the three interfacial contacts between XBB S RBD and hACE2 compared to Omicron, variants XBB.1.5 and XBB.1.16 had higher total binding free energies (ΔGbind) than Omicron due to the contribution of non-interfacial residues to the free energy, providing insight into the increased binding affinity of XBB1.5 and XBB.1.16. Furthermore, the presence of large positively charged surface patches in the XBBs act as drivers of electrostatic interactions, thus support the possibility of a higher binding affinity to hACE2.

Coding-complete genomes of XBB.1.16, XBB.2.3, FL.4 (alias of XBB.1.9.1.4), and XBB.3 of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron isolated from Bangladesh

We announce the coding-complete genomes of four different strains of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages, XBB.1.16, XBB.2.3, FL.4 (alias of XBB.1.9.1.4), and XBB.3. These strains were obtained between October 2022 and May 2023 from nasopharyngeal swabs of four Bangladeshi individuals, while one of them had a travel history. Genomic data were produced by implementing ARTIC Network-based amplicon sequencing using the Oxford Nanopore Technology.

Severity outcomes associated with SARS-CoV-2 XBB variants, an observational analysis

The rapidity with which SARS-CoV-2 XBB variants rose to predominance has been alarming. We used a large cohort of patients diagnosed with Omicron infections between September 2022 and mid-February 2023 to evaluate the likelihood of admission or need for supplemental oxygen in patients infected with XBB variants. Our data showed no significant association between XBB or XBB.1.5 infections and admissions. Older age groups, lack of vaccination, immunosuppression and underlying heart, kidney, and lung disease showed significant associations with hospitalization.

Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Malaysia during the Era of Endemic COVID-19

On 5 May 2023, WHO declared the end of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a public health emergency of international concern. However, the risk of new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants causing rapid and high surges in cases and deaths remained. In Malaysia, five COVID-19 waves during the pandemic phase were well characterized, but similar studies focusing on the endemic phase were lacking. Hence, we retrieved 14,965 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from the GISAID EpiCoV database for clade, lineage, and phylogenetic analysis in order to provide an insight into the population dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 that circulated in Malaysia from June 2022 to April 2023. The dominance of the Omicron variants was observed, and two new waves of infections driven by BA.5.2 and XBB.1, respectively, were detected. Data as of April 2023 also pointed to a possible eighth wave driven by XBB.1.9. Although new variants associated with higher transmissibility were behind the multiple surges, these subsequent waves had lower intensities as compared to the fourth and fifth waves. The on-going circulation and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 mean that COVID-19 still poses a serious threat, necessitating active genomic surveillance for early warning of potential new variants of concern.

Plasma after both SARS-CoV-2 boosted vaccination and COVID-19 potently neutralizes BQ.1.1 and XBB.1

Recent 2022 SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants, have acquired resistance to most neutralizing anti-Spike monoclonal antibodies authorized, and the BQ.1.* sublineages are notably resistant to all authorized monoclonal antibodies. Polyclonal antibodies from individuals both vaccinated and recently recovered from Omicron COVID-19 (VaxCCP) could retain new Omicron neutralizing activity. Here we reviewed BQ.1.* virus neutralization data from 920 individual patient samples from 43 separate cohorts defined by boosted vaccinations (Vax) with or without recent Omicron COVID-19, as well as infection without vaccination (CCP) to determine level of BQ.1.* neutralizing antibodies and percent of plasma samples with neutralizing activity. More than 90 % of the plasma samples from individuals in the recently (within 6 months) boosted VaxCCP study cohorts neutralized BQ.1.1, and BF.7 with 100 % neutralization of WA-1, BA.4/5, BA.4.6 and BA.2.75. The geometric mean of the geometric mean 50 % neutralizing titres (GM (GMT50) were 314, 78 and 204 for BQ.1.1, XBB.1 and BF.7, respectively. Compared to VaxCCP, plasma sampled from COVID-19 naïve subjects who also recently (within 6 months) received at least a third vaccine dose had about half of the GM (GMT50) for all viral variants. Boosted VaxCCP characterized by either recent vaccine dose or infection event within 6 months represents a robust, variant-resilient, neutralizing antibody source against the new Omicron BQ.1.1, XBB.1 and BF.7 variants.

Neutralization escape of Omicron XBB, BR.2, and BA.2.3.20 subvariants

New Omicron subvariants continue to emerge throughout the world. In particular, the XBB subvariant, which is a recombinant virus between BA.2.10.1.1 and BA.2.75.3.1.1.1, as well as the BA.2.3.20 and BR.2 subvariants that contain mutations distinct from BA.2 and BA.2.75, are currently increasing in proportion of variants sequenced. Here we show that antibodies induced by 3-dose mRNA booster vaccination as well as BA.1- and BA.4/5-wave infection effectively neutralize BA.2, BR.2, and BA.2.3.20 but have significantly reduced efficiency against XBB. In addition, the BA.2.3.20 subvariant exhibits enhanced infectivity in the lung-derived CaLu-3 cells and in 293T-ACE2 cells. Overall, our results demonstrate that the XBB subvariant is highly neutralization resistant, which highlights the need for continued monitoring of the immune escape and tissue tropism of emerging Omicron subvariants.

Genome-based comparison between the recombinant SARS-CoV-2 XBB and its parental lineages

Recombination is the main contributor to RNA virus evolution, and SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic produced several recombinants. The most recent SARS-CoV-2 recombinant is the lineage labeled XBB, also known as Gryphon, which arose from BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1. Here we performed a genome-based survey aimed to compare the new recombinant with its parental lineages that never became dominant. Genetic analyses indicated that the recombinant XBB and its first descendant XBB.1 show an evolutionary condition typical of an evolutionary blind background with no further epidemiologically relevant descendant. Genetic variability and expansion capabilities are slightly higher than parental lineages. Bayesian Skyline Plot indicates that XBB reached its plateau around October 6, 2022 and after an initial rapid growth the viral population size did not further expand, and around November 10, 2022 its levels of genetic variability decreased. Simultaneously with the reduction of the XBB population size, an increase of the genetic variability of its first sub-lineage XBB.1 occurred, that in turn reached the plateau around November 9, 2022 showing a kind of vicariance with its direct progenitors. Structure analysis indicates that the affinity for ACE2 surface in XBB/XBB.1 RBDs is weaker than for BA.2 RBD. In conclusion, at present XBB and XBB.1 do not show evidence about a particular danger or high expansion capability. Genome-based monitoring must continue uninterrupted in order to individuate if further mutations can make XBB more dangerous or generate new subvariants with different expansion capability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Convergent Evolution in SARS-CoV-2 Spike Creates a Variant Soup from Which New COVID-19 Waves Emerge

The first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic were mainly characterized by recurrent mutations of SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein at residues K417, L452, E484, N501 and P681 emerging independently across different variants of concern (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta). Such homoplasy is a marker of convergent evolution. Since Spring 2022 and the third year of the pandemic, with the advent of Omicron and its sublineages, convergent evolution has led to the observation of different lineages acquiring an additional group of mutations at different amino acid residues, namely R346, K444, N450, N460, F486, F490, Q493, and S494. Mutations at these residues have become increasingly prevalent during Summer and Autumn 2022, with combinations showing increased fitness. The most likely reason for this convergence is the selective pressure exerted by previous infection- or vaccine-elicited immunity. Such accelerated evolution has caused failure of all anti-Spike monoclonal antibodies, including bebtelovimab and cilgavimab. While we are learning how fast coronaviruses can mutate and recombine, we should reconsider opportunities for economically sustainable escape-proof combination therapies, and refocus antibody-mediated therapeutic efforts on polyclonal preparations that are less likely to allow for viral immune escape.

Alarming antibody evasion properties of rising SARS-CoV-2 BQ and XBB subvariants

The BQ and XBB subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron are now rapidly expanding, possibly due to altered antibody evasion properties deriving from their additional spike mutations. Here, we report that neutralization of BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1 by sera from vaccinees and infected persons was markedly impaired, including sera from individuals boosted with a WA1/BA.5 bivalent mRNA vaccine. Titers against BQ and XBB subvariants were lower by 13- to 81-fold and 66- to 155-fold, respectively, far beyond what had been observed to date. Monoclonal antibodies capable of neutralizing the original Omicron variant were largely inactive against these new subvariants, and the responsible individual spike mutations were identified. These subvariants were found to have similar ACE2-binding affinities as their predecessors. Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies.

Does the COVID-19 XBB Omicron subvariant signal the beginning of the end of the pandemic?

All pandemic viruses have eventually adapted to human hosts so that they become more transmissible and less virulent. The XBB Omicron subvariant is rapidly becoming the dominant strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Singapore from October 2022 and is one of several variants circulating globally with the potential to dominate autumn/winter waves in different countries. The XBB Omicron subvariant has demonstrated increased transmissibility through an apparent propensity for immune evasion. This is to be expected in the natural evolution of a virus in a population highly vaccinated with a vaccine targeting the spike protein of the original Wuhan strain of the virus. This review explores the important implications of the rising prevalence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant for public health in Singapore and beyond.