Global Trends in Climate Suitability of Bees: Ups and Downs in a Warming World

Bees represent vital natural assets contributing significantly to global food production and the maintenance of ecosystems. While studies on climate change effects impacting major pollinators like honeybees and bumblebees raise concerns about global diversity and crop productivity, comprehensive global-scale analyses remain limited. This study explores the repercussions of global warming on 1365 bees across seven families of bees worldwide. To compile a robust global bee occurrence dataset, we utilized the innovative 'BeeBDC' R package that amalgamated over 18.3 million bee occurrence records sourced from various repositories. Through species distribution models under the SSP585 scenario in the year 2070, we assessed how climate change influences the climate suitability of bees on a global scale, examining the impacts across continents. Our findings suggested that approximately 65% of bees are likely to witness a decrease in their distribution, with reductions averaging between 28% in Australia and 56% in Europe. Moreover, our analysis indicated that climate change's impact on bees is projected to be more severe in Africa and Europe, while North America is expected to witness a higher number (336) of bees expanding their distribution. Climate change's anticipated effects on bee distributions could potentially disrupt existing pollinator-plant networks, posing ecological challenges that emphasize the importance of pollinator diversity, synchrony between plants and bees, and the necessity for focused conservation efforts.

Climate change effects on the distribution of yellow-breasted capuchin monkey (Sapajus xanthosternos (Wied-Neuwied, 1826))

The magnitude of recent climatic changes has no historical precedent and impacts biodiversity. Climatic changes may displace suitable habitats (areas with suitable climates), leading to global biodiversity decline. Primates are among the most affected groups. Most primates depend on forests and contribute to their maintenance. We evaluated the potential effects of climatic change on the distribution of Sapajus xanthosternos, a critically endangered primate whose geographical range encompasses three Brazilian biomes. We evaluated changes between baseline (1970-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates using multivariate analysis. Then, we compared current and future (2100) climatic suitability projections for the species. The climatic changes predicted throughout the S. xanthosternos range differed mostly longitudinally, with higher temperature increases in the west and higher precipitation reductions in the east. Climatic suitability for S. xanthosternos is predicted to decline in the future. Areas with highest current climatic suitability occur as a narrow strip in the eastern part of the geographic range throughout the latitudinal range. In the future, areas with highest values are projected to be located as an even narrower strip in the eastern part of the geographical range. A small portion of forest remnants larger than 150 ha located in the east has larger current and future suitability values. At this large scale, the spatial heterogeneity of the climate effects reinforce the importance of maintenance of current populations in different areas of the range. The possibility that phenotypic plasticity helps primates cope with reduced climatic suitability may be mediated by habitat availability, quality, and connectivity.

Assessment of the probability of introduction of Thaumatotibia leucotreta into the European Union with import of cut roses

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative pest risk assessment to assess whether the import of cut roses provides a pathway for the introduction of Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) into the EU. The assessment was limited to the entry and establishment steps. A pathway model was used to assess how many T. leucotreta individuals would survive and emerge as adults from commercial or household wastes in an EU NUTS2 region climatically suitable in a specific season. This pathway model for entry consisted of three components: a cut roses distribution model, a T. leucotreta developmental model and a waste model. Four scenarios of timing from initial disposal of the cut roses until waste treatment (3, 7, 14 and 28 days) were considered. The estimated median number of adults escaping per year from imported cut roses in all the climatically suitable NUTS2 regions of the EU varied from 49,867 (90% uncertainty between 5,298 and 234,393) up to 143,689 (90% uncertainty between 21,126 and 401,458) for the 3- and 28-day scenarios. Assuming that, on average, a successful mating will happen for every 435 escaping moths, the estimated median number of T. leucotreta mated females per year from imported cut roses in all the climatically suitable NUTS2 regions of the EU would vary from 115 (90% uncertainty between 12 and 538) up to 330 (90% uncertainty between 49 and 923) for the 3- and 28-day scenarios. Due to the extreme polyphagia of T. leucotreta, host availability will not be a limiting factor for establishment. Climatic suitability assessment, using a physiologically based demographic modelling approach, identified the coastline extending from the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula through the Mediterranean as area suitable for establishment of T. leucotreta. This assessment indicates that cut roses provide a pathway for the introduction of T. leucotreta into the EU.

Matches and mismatches between the global distribution of major food crops and climate suitability

Over the course of history, humans have moved crops from their regions of origin to new locations across the world. The social, cultural and economic drivers of these movements have generated differences not only between current distributions of crops and their climatic origins, but also between crop distributions and climate suitability for their production. Although these mismatches are particularly important to inform agricultural strategies on climate change adaptation, they have, to date, not been quantified consistently at the global level. Here, we show that the relationships between the distributions of 12 major food crops and climate suitability for their yields display strong variation globally. After investigating the role of biophysical, socio-economic and historical factors, we report that high-income world regions display a better match between crop distribution and climate suitability. In addition, although crops are farmed predominantly in the same climatic range as their wild progenitors, climate suitability is not necessarily higher there, a pattern that reflects the legacy of domestication history on current crop distribution. Our results reveal how far the global distribution of major crops diverges from their climatic optima and call for greater consideration of the multiple dimensions of the crop socio-ecological niche in climate change adaptive strategies.

Evaluation of the Likelihood of Establishing False Codling Moth (Thaumatotibia leucotreta) in Australia via the International Cut Flower Market

Kenya and some other African countries are threatened by a serious pest Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), the false codling moth. The detection of T. leucotreta is quite difficult due to the cryptic nature of the larvae during transportation and is therefore a concern for Australia. This insect is a known pest of agriculturally important crops. Here, Maxent was used to assess the biosecurity threat of T. leucotreta to Australia. Habitat suitability and risk assessment of T. leucotreta in Australia were identified based on threatened areas under suitable climatic conditions and the presence of hosts in a given habitat. Modeling indicated that Australia is vulnerable to invasion and establishment by T. leucotreta in some states and territories, particularly areas of western and southern Australia. Within these locations, the risk is associated with specific cropping areas. As such, invasion and establishment by T. leucotreta may have serious implications for Australia's agricultural and horticultural industries e.g., the fruit and vegetable industries. This study will be used to inform the government and industry of the threat posed by T. leucotreta imported via the cut flower industry. Targeted preventative measures and trade policy could be introduced to protect Australia from invasion by this pest.

Assessing drivers of localized invasive spread to inform large-scale management of a highly damaging insect pest

Studies of biological invasions at the macroscale or across multiple scales can provide important insights for management, particularly when localized information about invasion dynamics or environmental contexts is unavailable. In this study, we performed a macroscale analysis of the roles of invasion drivers on the local scale dynamics of a high-profile pest, Lymantria dispar dispar L., with the purpose of improving the prioritization of vulnerable areas for treatment. Specifically, we assessed the relative effects of various anthropogenic and environmental variables on the establishment rate of 8010 quadrats at a localized scale (5 × 5 km) across the entire L. dispar transition zone (the area encompassing the leading population edge, currently from Minnesota to North Carolina). We calculated the number of years from first detection of L. dispar in a quadrat to the year when probability of establishment of L. dispar was greater than 99% (i.e., waiting time to establishment after first detection). To assess the effects of environmental and anthropogenic variables on each quadrat's waiting time to establishment, we performed linear mixed-effects regression models for the full transition zone and three subregions within the zone. Seasonal temperatures were found to be the primary drivers of local establishment rates. Winter temperatures had the strongest effects, especially in the northern parts of the transition zone. Furthermore, the effects of some factors on waiting times to establishment varied across subregions. Our findings contribute to identifying especially vulnerable areas to further L. dispar spread and informing region-specific criteria by invasion managers for the prioritization of areas for treatment.

Pest categorisation of Fusarium brachygibbosum

The EFSA Plant Health Panel performed a pest categorisation of Fusarium brachygibbosum Padwick. F. brachygibbosum is a well-characterised fungal plant pathogen with opportunistic behaviour, mostly isolated along with other fungal pathogens in symptomatic hosts. It has been reported from Africa, America, Asia and Oceania where it is has been associated with a wide range of symptoms on approximately 25 cultivated and non-cultivated plant species. The pathogen has been reported in Italy in soil/marine sediments and in quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa) and durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) seeds. The pathogen is not included in the EU Commission Implementing Regulation 2019/2072. This pest categorisation focused on a selected range of host plant species on which F. brachygibbosum fulfilled Koch's postulates and was formally identified by multilocus gene sequencing analysis. Host plants for planting, seed of host plants and soil and other substrates originating in infested third countries are main pathways for the entry of the pathogen into the EU. There are no reports of interceptions of F. brachygibbosum in the EU. Host availability and climate suitability factors occurring in the EU are favourable for the establishment of the pathogen in Member States (MSs). Phytosanitary measures are available to prevent the introduction of the pathogen into the EU. Additional measures are available to mitigate the risk of entry and spread of the pathogen in the EU. Despite the low aggressiveness observed in some reported hosts, it has been shown that, in the areas of its present distribution, the pathogen has a direct impact on certain hosts (e.g. almond, onion, soybean, tobacco) that are also relevant for the EU. The Panel concludes that F. brachygibbosum satisfies all the criteria to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest. However, high uncertainty remains regarding the distribution of the pathogen in the EU and some uncertainty exists about its potential impact in the EU. Specific surveys and re-evaluation of Fusarium isolates in culture collections could reduce these uncertainties.

Construction and application of meteorological index for Apis cearna cearna activity in nor-thern mountainous area of Sichuan Basin, China

We analyzed the climate ecological suitability of Apis cerana cerana in the northern mountain area of Sichuan Basin, based on the meteorological data of two meteorological stations, the production and the ecological characteristics and activity of A. cerana cerana. Taking temperature, moisture, light, wind and weather conditions as impact indices and referring to life meteorological index, we constructed a hierarchical calculation method for activity meteorological index and annual evaluation of A. cerana cerana in northern mountainous area of Sichuan Basin. Results showed that the main meteorological factors affecting A. cerana cearna activity in the study were temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hour, wind power and daytime cumulative duration of precipitation. Among those factors, temperature and daytime cumulative duration of precipitation were the main ones. The meteorological index of A. cerana cerana activity was constructed through the combination of different values of these five index factors, with which the grading evaluation being carried out. When the index was greater than 12, the weather condition was good and suitable for A. cerana cearna activity. When the index was 7-12, the weather condition was general, which was sub-suitable for A. cerana cearna activity. When the index was 1-7, the weather condition was poor, the activity of A. cerana cearna would significantly decrease. When the index was less than or equal to 1, the weather condition was bad and would not be suitable for A. cerana cearna to be active or in the overwintering period. We used this index to evaluate the climate of Zhongshan bee farm. Results showed that the average comprehensive meteorological index was 129.3 (score 60.4) for many years (April to October), the overall meteorological condition was good. The yield of "local honey" was significantly correlated with the annual comprehensive meteorological index. The accuracy rate of annual meteorological evaluation was 90%.

A Probabilistic Bio-Economic Assessment of the Global Consequences of Wheat Leaf Rust

This study provides a bio-economic assessment of the global climate suitability and probabilistic crop-loss estimates attributable to wheat leaf rust. We draw on a purpose-built, spatially explicit, ecoclimatic suitability model for wheat leaf rust to estimate that 94.4% of global wheat production is vulnerable to the disease. To reflect the spatiotemporal variation in leaf rust losses, we used a probabilistic approach to estimate a representative rust loss distribution based on long-term, state-level annual U.S. loss estimates. Applying variants of this representative loss distribution to selected wheat production areas in 15 epidemiological zones throughout the world, we project global annual average losses of 8.6 million metric tons of grain for the period 2000 to 2050 based on a conservative, baseline scenario, and 18.3 million metric tons based on a high-loss scenario; equivalent to economic losses ranging from $1.5 to $3.3 billion per year (2016 U.S. prices). Even the more conservative baseline estimate implies that a sustained, worldwide investment of $50.5 million per year in leaf rust research is economically justified.

The right trait in the right place at the right time: Matching traits to environment improves restoration outcomes

The challenges of restoration in dryland ecosystems are growing due to a rise in anthropogenic disturbance and increasing aridity. Plant functional traits are often used to predict plant performance and can offer a window into potential outcomes of restoration efforts across environmental gradients. We analyzed a database including 15 yr of seeding outcomes across 150 sites on the Colorado Plateau, a cold desert ecoregion in the western United States, and analyzed the independent and interactive effects of functional traits (seed mass, height, and specific leaf area) and local biologically relevant climate variables on seeding success. We predicted that the best models would include an interaction between plant traits and climate, indicating a need to match the right trait value to the right climate conditions to maximize seeding success. Indeed, we found that both plant height and seed size significantly interacted with temperature seasonality, with larger seeds and taller plants performing better in more seasonal environments. We also determined that these trait-environment patterns are not influenced by whether a species is native or nonnative. Our results inform the selection of seed mixes for restoring areas with specific climatic conditions, while also demonstrating the strong influence of temperature seasonality on seeding success in the Colorado Plateau region.

[Climate suitability of Ziziphus mauritiana in the main planting areas of Fujian Province, China]

Taiwan green jujube (Ziziphus mauritiana) is a new fruit variety, with remarkable economic benefit. To achieve high quality and high yield of jujube in Fujian Province, we quantified the climate suitability model parameters of the jujube in main production areas of Fujian, and analyzed climate suitability characteristics and change trend of main production areas, based on the yield and meteorological data, combined with literature and phenological observation data and agricultural climate suitability model. The results showed that the model based on the equal weight summation method had the highest reliability. The climate suitability of jujube in main production areas of Fujian was higher, with most years being suitable or much suitable. From 1996 to 2013, the influence of climate conditions on jujube growth was generally in a good trend, which was conducive to the development of jujube production. The suitability of the main production areas in the whole growing season was ranked as temperature suitability>comprehensive climate suitability>sunshine suitability>precipitation suitability. September and October are the key period of water management. Our results are important in guiding production management and long-term planning of Taiwan green jujube in Fujian Province.

Shift in Potential Malaria Transmission Areas in India, Using the Fuzzy-Based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) Model under Changing Climatic Conditions

The future implications of climate change on malaria transmission at the global level have already been reported, however such evidences are scarce and limited in India. Here our study aims to assess, identify and map the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax (Pv) and Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) malaria transmission in India. A Fuzzy-based Climate Suitability Malaria Transmission (FCSMT) model under the GIS environment was generated using Temperature and Relative Humidity data, extracted from CORDEX South Asia for Baseline (1976-2005) and RCP 4.5 scenario for future projection by the 2030s (2021-2040). National malaria data were used at the model analysis stage. Model outcomes suggest that climate change may significantly increase the spatial spread of Pv and Pf malaria with a numerical increase in the transmission window's (TW) months, and a shift in the months of transmission. Some areas of the western Himalayan states are likely to have new foci of Pv malaria transmission. Interior parts of some southern and eastern states are likely to become more suitable for Pf malaria transmission. Study has also identified the regions with a reduction in transmission months by the 2030s, leading to unstable malaria, and having the potential for malaria outbreaks.

Invasive Plant Species Establishment and Range Dynamics in Sri Lanka under Climate Change

Plant invasion has been widely recognized as an agent of global change that has the potential to have severe impacts under climate change. The challenges posed by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) on biodiversity and ecosystem stability is growing and not adequately studied, especially in developing countries. Defining climate suitability for multiple invasive plants establishment is important for early and strategic interventions to control and manage plant invasions. We modeled priority IAPS in Sri Lanka to identify the areas of greatest climatic suitability for their establishment and observed how these areas could be altered under projected climate change. We used Maximum Entropy method to model 14 nationally significant IAPS under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for 2050 and 2070. The combined climate suitability map produced by summing up climatic suitability of 14 IAPS was further classified into five classes in ArcMap as very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. South and west parts of Sri Lanka are projected to have potentially higher climatic suitability for a larger number of IAPS. We observed suitable area changes (gains and losses) in all five classes of which two were significant enough to make an overall negative impact i.e., (i) contraction of the very low class and (ii) expansion of the moderate class. Both these changes trigger the potential risk from IAPS in Sri Lanka in the future.

Modeling Climate Suitability of the Western Blacklegged Tick in California

Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls (Acari: Ixodidae), the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes to humans in the far-western United States, is broadly distributed across Pacific Coast states, but its distribution is not uniform within this large, ecologically diverse region. To identify areas of suitable habitat, we assembled records of locations throughout California where two or more I. pacificus were collected from vegetation from 1980 to 2014. We then employed ensemble species distribution modeling to identify suitable climatic conditions for the tick and restricted the results to land cover classes where these ticks are typically encountered (i.e., forest, grass, scrub-shrub, riparian). Cold-season temperature and rainfall are particularly important abiotic drivers of suitability, explaining between 50 and 99% of the spatial variability across California among models. The likelihood of an area being classified as suitable increases steadily with increasing temperatures >0°C during the coldest quarter of the year, and further increases when precipitation amounts range from 400 to 800 mm during the coldest quarter, indicating that areas in California with relatively warm and wet winters typically are most suitable for I. pacificus. Other consistent predictors of suitability include increasing autumn humidity, temperatures in the warmest month between 23 and 33°C, and low-temperature variability throughout the year. The resultant climatic suitability maps indicate that coastal California, especially the northern coast, and the western Sierra Nevada foothills have the highest probability of I. pacificus presence.

Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century

Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat-growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041-2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO₂ emission scenario by 2081-2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat-growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production.

Protected areas offer refuge from invasive species spreading under climate change

Protected areas (PAs) are intended to provide native biodiversity and habitats with a refuge against the impacts of global change, particularly acting as natural filters against biological invasions. In practice, however, it is unknown how effective PAs will be in shielding native species from invasions under projected climate change. Here, we investigate the current and future potential distributions of 100 of the most invasive terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species in Europe. We use this information to evaluate the combined threat posed by climate change and invasions to existing PAs and the most susceptible species they shelter. We found that only a quarter of Europe's marine and terrestrial areas protected over the last 100 years have been colonized by any of the invaders investigated, despite offering climatically suitable conditions for invasion. In addition, hotspots of invasive species and the most susceptible native species to their establishment do not match at large continental scales. Furthermore, the predicted richness of invaders is 11%-18% significantly lower inside PAs than outside them. Invasive species are rare in long-established national parks and nature reserves, which are actively protected and often located in remote and pristine regions with very low human density. In contrast, the richness of invasive species is high in the more recently designated Natura 2000 sites, which are subject to high human accessibility. This situation may change in the future, since our models anticipate important shifts in species ranges toward the north and east of Europe at unprecedented rates of 14-55 km/decade, depending on taxonomic group and scenario. This may seriously compromise the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of the resistance that PAs provide against biological invasions and climate change on a continental scale and illustrates their strategic value in safeguarding native biodiversity.

Introduced and invasive cactus species: a global review

Understanding which species are introduced and become invasive, and why, are central questions in invasion science. Comparative studies on model taxa have provided important insights, but much more needs to be done to unravel the context dependencies of these findings. The cactus family (Cactaceae), one of the most popular horticultural plant groups, is an interesting case study. Hundreds of cactus species have been introduced outside their native ranges; a few of them are among the most damaging invasive plant species in the world. We reviewed the drivers of introductions and invasions in the family and seek insights that can be used to minimize future risks. We compiled a list of species in the family and determined which have been recorded as invasive. We also mapped current global distributions and modelled the potential global distributions based on distribution data of known invasive taxa. Finally, we identified whether invasiveness is phylogenetically clustered for cacti and whether particular traits are correlated with invasiveness. Only 57 of the 1922 cactus species recognized in this treatment have been recorded as invasive. There are three invasion hotspots: South Africa (35 invasive species recorded), Australia (26 species) and Spain (24 species). However, there are large areas of the world with climates suitable for cacti that are at risk of future invasion-in particular, parts of China, eastern Asia and central Africa. The invasive taxa represent an interesting subset of the total species pool. There is a significant phylogenetic signal: invasive species occur in 2 of the 3 major phylogenetic clades and in 13 of the 130 genera. This phylogenetic signal is not driven by human preference, i.e. horticultural trade, but all invasive species are from 5 of the 12 cactus growth forms. Finally, invasive species tend to have significantly larger native ranges than non-invasive species, and none of the invasive species are of conservation concern in their native range. These results suggest fairly robust correlates of invasiveness that can be used for proactive management and risk assessments.

Introduced and invasive cactus species: a global review

Understanding which species are introduced and become invasive, and why, are central questions in invasion science. Comparative studies on model taxa have provided important insights, but much more needs to be done to unravel the context dependencies of these findings. The cactus family (Cactaceae), one of the most popular horticultural plant groups, is an interesting case study. Hundreds of cactus species have been introduced outside their native ranges; a few of them are among the most damaging invasive plant species in the world. We reviewed the drivers of introductions and invasions in the family and seek insights that can be used to minimize future risks. We compiled a list of species in the family and determined which have been recorded as invasive. We also mapped current global distributions and modelled the potential global distributions based on distribution data of known invasive taxa. Finally, we identified whether invasiveness is phylogenetically clustered for cacti and whether particular traits are correlated with invasiveness. Only 57 of the 1922 cactus species recognized in this treatment have been recorded as invasive. There are three invasion hotspots: South Africa (35 invasive species recorded), Australia (26 species) and Spain (24 species). However, there are large areas of the world with climates suitable for cacti that are at risk of future invasion-in particular, parts of China, eastern Asia and central Africa. The invasive taxa represent an interesting subset of the total species pool. There is a significant phylogenetic signal: invasive species occur in 2 of the 3 major phylogenetic clades and in 13 of the 130 genera. This phylogenetic signal is not driven by human preference, i.e. horticultural trade, but all invasive species are from 5 of the 12 cactus growth forms. Finally, invasive species tend to have significantly larger native ranges than non-invasive species, and none of the invasive species are of conservation concern in their native range. These results suggest fairly robust correlates of invasiveness that can be used for proactive management and risk assessments.