Early mortality in children with cancer in Denmark and Sweden: The role of social background in a setting with universal healthcare

Socioeconomic differences in overall survival from childhood cancer have been shown previously, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We aimed to investigate if social inequalities were seen already for early mortality in settings with universal healthcare. From national registers, all children diagnosed with cancer at ages 0-19 years, during 1991-2014, in Sweden and Denmark, were identified, and information on parental social characteristics was collected. We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of early mortality (death within 90 days after cancer diagnosis) by parental education, income, employment, cohabitation, and country of birth using logistic regression. For children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), clinical characteristics were obtained. Among 13,926 included children, 355 (2.5%) died within 90 days after diagnosis. Indications of higher early mortality were seen among the disadvantaged groups, with the most pronounced associations observed for maternal education (ORadj_Low_vs_High 1.65 [95% CI 1.22-2.23]) and income (ORadj_Q1(lowest)_vs_Q4(highest) 1.77 [1.25-2.49]). We found attenuated or null associations between social characteristics and later mortality (deaths occurring 1-5 years after cancer diagnosis). In children with ALL, the associations between social factors and early mortality remained unchanged when adjusting for potential mediation by clinical characteristics. In conclusion, this population-based cohort study indicated differences in early mortality after childhood cancer by social background, also in countries with universal healthcare. Social differences occurring this early in the disease course requires further investigation, also regarding the timing of diagnosis.

A Simple Frailty Score Predicts Survival and Early Mortality in Systemic AL Amyloidosis

Systemic AL amyloidosis is a challenging disease for which many patients are considered frail in daily clinical practice. However, no study has so far addressed frailty and its impact on the outcome of these patients. We built a simple score to predict mortality based on three frailty-associated variables: age, ECOG performance status (<2 vs. ≥2) and NT-proBNP (<8500 vs. ≥8500 ng/L). Four-hundred and sixteen consecutive newly diagnosed patients diagnosed at ten sites from the Spanish Myeloma Group were eligible for the study. The score was developed in a derivation cohort from a referral center, and it was externally validated in a multicenter cohort. Multivariate analysis showed that the three variables were independent predictors of survival. The score was able to discriminate four groups of patients in terms of overall survival and early mortality in both cohorts. Comorbidity was also analyzed with the Charlson comorbidity index, but it did not reach statistical significance in the model. A nomogram was created to easily estimate the mortality risk of each patient at each time point. This score is a simple, robust, and efficient approach to dynamically assess frailty-dependent mortality both at diagnosis and throughout follow-up. The optimal treatment for frail AL amyloidosis patients remains to be determined but we suggest that the estimation of frailty-associated risk could complement current staging systems, adding value in clinical decision-making in this complex scenario.

Predictors of early mortality after lung transplantation for idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension

Lung transplantation remains an important therapeutic option for idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH), yet short-term survival is the poorest among the major diagnostic categories. We sought to develop a prediction model for 90-day mortality using the United Network for Organ Sharing database for adults with IPAH transplanted between 2005 and 2021. Variables with a p value ≤ 0.1 on univariate testing were included in multivariable analysis to derive the best subset model. The cohort comprised 693 subjects, of whom 71 died (10.2%) within 90 days of transplant. Significant independent predictors of early mortality were: extracorporeal circulatory support and/or mechanical ventilation at transplant (OR: 3; CI: 1.4-5), pulmonary artery diastolic pressure (OR: 1.3 per 10 mmHg; CI: 1.07-1.56), forced expiratory volume in the first second percent predicted (OR: 0.8 per 10%; CI: 0.7-0.94), recipient total bilirubin >2 mg/dL (OR: 3; CI: 1.4-7.2) and ischemic time >6 h (OR: 1.7, CI: 1.01-2.86). The predictive model was able to distinguish 25% of the cohort with a mortality of ≥20% from 49% with a mortality of ≤5%. We conclude that recipient variables associated with increasing severity of pulmonary vascular disease, including pretransplant advanced life support, and prolonged ischemic time are important risk factors for 90-day mortality after lung transplant for IPAH.

The IMPACT Score: A New Score to Predict the Risk of Early Mortality in Cardiogenic Shock Patients Treated With Venoarterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

OBJECTIVES

Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) requires considerable human and financial resources. Few studies have focused on early mortality (ie, occurring within 72 hours after VA-ECMO implantation). The objective of this study was to establish a prognosis score-the IMPACT score (prediction of early mortality associated with VA-ECMO using preimplantation characteristics)-by determining the risk factors associated with early mortality.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective and observational study.

SETTING

The study was conducted at a University hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

This single-center retrospective study included 147 patients treated with VA-ECMO for cardiogenic shock between 2014 and 2021.

METHODS

The primary outcome was early mortality (ie, occurring within 72 hours after VA-ECMO implantation). Multivariate logistic regression was performed using a bootstrapping methodology to identify factors independently associated with early mortality. To construct the score, identified variables had points (pts) assigned corresponding to their odds ratio.

RESULTS

A total of 147 patients were included in the study. Early mortality (<72 hours) was 26% (38 patients). Four variables were established: cardiac arrest (2 pts), lactate levels (3 pts), platelet count <100 g/L (4 pts), and renal-replacement therapy (5 pts). The IMPACT score had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 (95% CI 0.86-0.70) to predict early mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In the authors' experience, 26% of patients treated with VA-ECMO presented early mortality. The IMPACT score is a reliable predictor of early mortality and may assist with VA-ECMO initiation decision-making.

Risk stratification for early mortality in newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia: a multicenter, non-selected, retrospective cohort study

Introduction

Despite the current effective treatments for acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL), early mortality (EM), defined as death within 30 days of presentation, is a major hurdle to long-term survival.

Methods

We performed a multicenter retrospective study to evaluate the incidence and clinical characteristics of EM in patients with newly diagnosed APL and to develop a risk stratification model to predict EM.

Results

We identified 313 eligible patients diagnosed between 2000 and 2021 from five academic hospitals. The median age was 50 years (range 19-94), and 250 (79.9%) patients were <65 years. Most patients (n=274, 87.5%) received their first dose of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) within 24 hours of presentation. EM occurred in 41 patients, with a cumulative incidence of 13.1%. The most common cause of EM was intracranial hemorrhage (n=22, 53.6%), and most EMs (31/41, 75.6%) occurred within the first seven days of APL presentation. In a multivariable analysis, we identified three independent factors predicting EM: age ≥65 years (HR, 2.56), white blood cell count ≥8.0 x 109/L (HR, 3.30), and ATRA administration >24 hours of presentation (HR, 2.95). Based on these factors, patients were stratified into three categories with a significantly increasing risk of EM: 4.1% for low risk (54.3%; no risk factors; HR 1), 18.5% for intermediate risk (34.5%; 1 factor; HR 4.81), and 40.5% for high risk (11.2%; 2-3 factors; HR 13.16).

Discussion

The risk of EM is still not negligible in this era of ATRA-based therapies. Our risk model serves as a clinically useful tool to identify high-risk patients for EM who may be candidates for novel treatments and aggressive supportive strategies.

Time and Risk Factors of Trauma-Related Mortality: A 5-Year Retrospective Analysis From a National Level I Trauma Center

Background: We aimed to analyze in-hospital timing and risk factors for mortality in a level 1 trauma center. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of all trauma-related mortality between 2013 and 2018. Patients were divided and analyzed based on the time of mortality (early (≤48 h) vs late (>48 h)), and within different age groups. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to predict in-hospital mortality. Results: 8624 trauma admissions and 677 trauma-related deaths occurred (47.7% at the scene and 52.3% in-hospital). Among in-hospital mortality, the majority were males, with a mean age of 35.8 ± 17.2 years. Most deaths occurred within 3-7 days (35%), followed by 33% after 1 week, 20% on the first day, and 12% on the second day of admission. Patients with early mortality were more likely to have a lower Glasgow coma scale, a higher shock index, a higher chest and abdominal abbreviated injury score, and frequently required exploratory laparotomy and massive blood transfusion (P < .005). The injury severity scores and proportions of head injuries were higher in the late mortality group than in the early group. The severity of injuries, blood transfusion, in-hospital complications, and length of intensive care unit stay were comparable among the age groups, whereas mortality was higher in the age group of 19 to 44. The higher proportions of early and late in-hospital deaths were evident in the age group of 24 to 29. In multivariate analysis, the shock index (OR 2.26; 95%CI 1.04-4.925; P = .04) was an independent predictor of early death, whereas head injury was a predictor of late death (OR 4.54; 95%CI 1.92-11.11; P = .001). Conclusion: One-third of trauma-related mortalities occur early after injury. The initial shock index appears to be a reliable hemodynamic indicator for predicting early mortality. Therefore, timely hemostatic resuscitation and appropriate interventions for bleeding control may prevent early mortality.

Validation and modification of simplified Geriatric Assessment and Elderly Prognostic Index: Effective tools for older patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

Geriatric assessment can aid in optimizing treatment strategies and supportive interventions for older patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). Fondazione Italiana Linformi has recently introduced novel geriatric assessment tools, simplified Geriatric Assessment (sGA) and Elderly Prognostic Index (EPI), aimed at tailoring the treatment and predicting the outcomes for older patients with DLBCL. The objectives of this study are the validation and possible modification of the sGA and EPI in China. In the study, both sGA and EPI demonstrated the predictive capabilities for overall survival (OS) and early mortality (both p < 0.05) in older individuals with DLBCL. Albumin, serving as an independent predictive biomarker for OS (p = 0.006), was utilized to adjust the measurements, resulting in the establishment of sGA-A and EPI-A. The sGA-A effectively addressed the shortcomings of the sGA and EPI in predicting PFS and surpassed them in predicting OS and early mortality. Nevertheless, there is insufficient evidence to support the use of sGA and EPI as treatment guidance tools. In conclusion, the modified sGA-A model proved to be a successful instrument for geriatric assessment of older patients with DLBCL.

Symptomatic Patients with Hyperleukocytic FLT3-ITD Mutated Acute Myeloid Leukemia Might Benefit from Leukapheresis

PURPOSE

We aimed to identify subsets of patients who benefit from emergency LA and to establish a therapeutic algorithm for AML patients with hyperleukocytosis.

METHODS

In this single-center retrospective cohort study, a total of 20 consecutive patients underwent LA because of their clinical symptoms. Overall survival (OS) analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier plot method. Univariate and multivariate analyses (using multiple logistic regression) were performed. At the time of diagnosis, all patients received a standard diagnostic workup for AML including FLT3-ITD mutational analysis.

RESULTS

FLT3-ITD mut AML patients receiving LA had a median OS of 437 days (range 5-2379 days) with a corresponding 14-day survival of 92.3%, while FLT3 wt AML patients displayed a significantly lower median OS of only 5 days (range 1-203 days) with a corresponding 14-day survival of 14.3% (p = 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with clinical symptoms of leukostasis, the subset of FLT3-ITD mut AML patients showed a better outcome with lower early mortality after emergency LA. Based on these observations, we established a therapeutic algorithm for AML patients with hyperleukocytosis.

Risk factors of early mortality in COVID-19 patients in Indonesia: A retrospective cohort study in a provincial referral hospital of Aceh

Some of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients died after being hospitalized and early mortality is a matter of concern during the pandemic; therefore, it is critical to determine which patients are the most vulnerable of having early mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for early mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Indonesia. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on hospitalized COVID-19 patients from July 2020 to September 2021 at Dr. Zainoel Abidin Hospital, Banda Aceh, Indonesia. Demographic data, clinical characteristics, laboratory findings, and mortality were collected. Early mortality was defined as a death before seven days of the hospitalization. Multivariate regression analysis was employed to determine the risk factors associated with early mortality. We included the data of 624 COVID-19 patients who died during the study period. More than half of the patients were male and aged over 50 years old. The average hospitalization period was 10 days and most patients had more than two comorbidities. Chronic lung disease was the most common comorbidity (46.0%) followed by respiratory disease (26.8%) and heart disease (14.3%). Multiple comorbidities and elevated D-dimers exceeding 3376.92 ng/mL were associated with early mortality with OR: 7.029; 95%CI: 2.02-24.43 and OR: 1.000085, 95%CI: 1.000028-1.000142, respectively. In conclusion, early mortality in COVID-19 patients was associated with having multiple comorbidities and elevated D-dimer level. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the presence of comorbidities and routine laboratory test while managing COVID-19 patients in order to prevent the early mortality.

A Survival Analysis of Acute Myeloid Leukemia Patients Treated With Intensive Chemotherapy: A Single Center Experience

INTRODUCTION

Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is a haematological disease associated with a dismal prognosis, despite major progress made in recent years in terms of antileukemic agents and supportive care.

METHODS

We investigated the results of the intensive treatment of 133 fit AML patients (de novo and secondary) from a referral cancer centre in Romania, treated between January 2015 and December 2021.

RESULTS

We included 79 male and 54 female patients with a median age of 53 years (range 18-70). Molecular biology analysis was available for 82.7% of patients, whereas karyotype analysis was only available for 33% of patients. The median overall survival (OS) was 8.7 months, and the disease-free survival rate was 26.3% at a median follow-up of 33.7 months. The complete remission (CR) rate after induction was 48.9% for all patients and 61.9% for patients who were assessable (excluding patients who died before being assessed for response). Twelve patients underwent allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT), with the median OS not reached. Early mortality (EM), defined as death during the first 30 days after admission, was 17.3%, with the main cause of death being septic shock (78.3%). Elderly patients (≥60 years of age) had a lower OS, more primary refractory disease, and higher rates of early mortality.

CONCLUSION

Complete remission rates and OS in our cohort were lower than in other reports. Early mortality was unexpectedly high, mainly due to infections, which were the main causes of death in our cohort.

Predictive Value of the C-Reactive Protein to Albumin Ratio in 30-Day Mortality after Hip Fracture in Elderly Population: A Retrospective Observational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

C-reactive protein (CRP) to Albumin ratio (CAR) has been used in multiple clinical settings to predict early mortality. However, there is a lack of evidence on the predictive role of CAR in 30-day mortality after a hip fracture. The purpose of this study was to establish a potential association between CAR and 30-day mortality and to assess if the CAR Receiving Operating Characteristics curve (ROC) can be a reliable predictor of early mortality.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the charts of 676 patients (>65 years) treated for hip fracture between 2006 and 2018. All hip fractures were included. Treatment strategies included closed reduction and internal fixation, open reduction and internal fixation, hemiarthroplasty, or total joint arthroplasty. Statistical analysis included T-test, Pearson correlation for CAR and other markers, ROC curves and area under the curve, Youden Model, and Odds Ratio.

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality rate analysis showed that higher preoperative levels of CAR were associated with higher early mortality. When analyzing the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) for 30-day mortality, the reported value was 0.816. The point of the ROC curve corresponding to 14.72 was considered a cut-off with a specificity of 87% and a sensibility of 40.8%. When analyzing values higher than 14.72, the 30-day mortality rate was 17.9%, whilst, for values lower than 14.72, the 30-day mortality rate was 1.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients older than 65 years affected by a hip fracture with increased preoperative levels of CAR are associated with higher 30-day mortality. Despite a moderate sensibility, considering the low cost and the predictivity of CAR, it should be considered a standard predictive marker.

The Real-World Evidence on the Fragility and Its Impact on the Choice of Treatment Regimen in Newly Diagnosed Patients with Multiple Myeloma over 75 Years of Age

Fragility scales are intended to help in therapeutic decisions. Here, we asked if the fragility assessment in MM patients ≥ 75 years old qualified for treatment by the local physician correlates with the choice of treatment: a two- or three-drug regimens. Between 7/2018 and 12/2019, we prospectively enrolled 197 MM patients at the start of treatment from the 13 Polish Myeloma Group centers. The data to assess fragility were prospectively collected, but centrally assessed fragility was not disclosed to the local center. The activity of daily living (ADL) could be assessed in 192 (97.5%) and was independent in 158 (80.2%), moderately impaired in 23 (11.7%), and 11 (5.6%) in completely dependent. Patients with more than three comorbidities made up 26.9% (53 patients). Thus, according to the Palumbo calculator, 43 patients were in the intermediate fitness group (21.8%), and the rest belonged to the frailty group (153, 77.7%). Overall, 79.7% of patients (157) received three-drug regimens and 20.3% (40) received two-drug regimens. In each ECOG group, more than three out of four patients received three-drug regimens. According to the ADL scale, 82.3% of the independent 65.2% of moderately impaired, and 81.8% of the dependent received three-drug regimens. Out of 53 patients with at least four comorbidities, 71.7% received three-drug regimens, and the rest received two-drug regimens. Thirty-four patients from the intermediate fit group (79.0%), and 123 (79.9%) from the frail group received three-drug regimens. Early mortality occurred in 25 patients (12.7%). No one discontinued treatment due to toxicity. To conclude, MM patients over 75 are mainly treated with triple-drug regimens, not only in reduced doses, regardless of their frailty scores. However, the absence of prospective fragility assessment did not negatively affect early mortality and the number of treatment discontinuations, which brings into question the clinical utility of current fragility scales in everyday practice.

A real-world data analysis of predictors of early mortality after a diagnosis of multiple myeloma

BACKGROUND

Despite the increased availability and use of novel therapies for multiple myeloma, early mortality is a pervasive challenge with a significant impact on older adults. Reported rates and predictors of early mortality have varied in the literature, with most studies seldom focusing on community-treated patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort analysis of a real-world electronic health record-derived deidentified database of 7512 patients newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma between January 1, 2011, and February 2, 2021, and treated primarily in US-based community oncology practices, factors associated with early mortality (defined as death within 6 months after the multiple myeloma diagnosis) were examined with the use of binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

The median age was 70 years overall. We found an overall early mortality rate of 8.3%, with 73% of early deaths occurring in those aged ≥70 years. Among the early deaths, only 49 patients (8.7%) had documented disease progression before death (median time to progression, 30 days [interquartile range, 7-53 days]). Baseline factors associated with higher odds of early mortality included an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) ≥ 2, Revised International Staging System (R-ISS) stage III, an age ≥ 70 years, receipt of proteasome inhibitor-doublet therapy, a light-chain isotype, and the presence of renal dysfunction (estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min). Among those aged ≥70 years, ECOG PS ≥ 2 and R-ISS stage III remained the strongest predictors of early mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Early mortality disproportionately affects older adults (aged ≥70 years) with multiple myeloma. Interventions to support this population are needed to reduce disparate survival outcomes.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Factors associated with an increased risk of dying within 6 months (early mortality) of a new diagnosis of multiple myeloma (MM) among 7512 mostly community-treated patients with MM were evaluated. The early mortality rate was 8.3%; among those deaths, 49 patients (8.7%) had documented evidence of MM progression before death. The risk of early mortality was greatest for older patients (aged ≥70 years) and those with a poor performance status, poor kidney function, a higher disease stage, and light-chain MM and those receiving two-drug MM therapies. These findings highlight the need for supportive interventions geared toward older adults with MM.

Preprocedural control of nutritional status score and prediction of early death after percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy

Background and Aim

Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) is often associated with early mortality. We therefore investigated factors associated with early death after PEG.

Methods

The present study comprised patients who had undergone PEG between April 2014 and March 2020. Patients were divided into two groups: an early mortality group who died within 1 month of PEG, and a non-mortality group whose clinical course could be followed for more than 1 month after the procedure. Patient background, hematological data, and procedural duration were compared between groups.

Results

Univariate analysis identified older age, high blood urea nitrogen (BUN), low prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and high controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score as factors associated with early death after PEG. In multivariate analysis, high CONUT score remained an independent prognostic factor (P = 0.0035).

Conclusion

A high CONUT score may be a prognostic factor for early mortality after PEG.

Prediction of survival with lower intensity therapy among older patients with acute myeloid leukemia

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model for survival in older/unfit patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) who were treated with lower-intensity chemotherapy regimens.

METHODS

The authors reviewed all older/unfit patients with newly diagnosed AML who received lower-intensity chemotherapy from 2000 until 2020 at their institution. A total of 1462 patients were included. They were divided (3:1 basis) into a training (n = 1088) and a validation group (n = 374).

RESULTS

In the training cohort of 1088 patients (median age, 72 years), the multivariate analysis identified 11 consistent independent adverse factors associated with survival: older age, therapy-related myeloid neoplasm, existence of previous myelodysplastic syndrome or myeloproliferative neoplasms, poor performance status, pulmonary comorbidity, anemia, thrombocytopenia, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, cytogenetic abnormalities, and the presence of infection at diagnosis, and therapy not containing venetoclax. The 3-year survival rates were 52%, 24%, 10%, and 1% in favorable, intermediate, poor, and very poor risk, respectively. This survival model was validated in an independent cohort. In a subset of patients in whom molecular mutation profiles were performed in more recent times, adding the mutation profiles after accounting for the effects of previous factors identified IDH2 (favorable), NPM1 (favorable), and TP53 (unfavorable) mutations as molecular prognostic factors.

CONCLUSION

The proposed survival model with lower-intensity chemotherapy in older/unfit patients with newly diagnosed AML may help to advise patients on their expected outcome, to propose different strategies in first complete remission, and to compare the results of different existing or future investigational therapies.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Lower intensity therapy can be considered for older patients to avoid severe toxicities and adverse events. However, survival prediction in AML was commonly developed in patients who received intensive chemotherapy. In this study, we have proposed a survival model to guide therapeutic approach in older patients who received lower-intensity therapy.

The prediction of 24-h mortality by the respiratory rate and oxygenation index compared with National Early Warning Score in emergency department patients: an observational study

BACKGROUND

The ROX index combines respiratory rate and oxygenation to predict the response to oxygen therapy in pneumonia. It is calculated by dividing the patient's oxygen saturation, by the inspired oxygen concentration, and then by the respiratory rate (e.g. 95%/0.21/16 = 28). Since this index includes the most essential physiological variables to detect deterioration, it may be a helpful risk tool in the emergency department (ED). Although small studies suggest it can predict early mortality, no large study has compared it with the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), the most widely validated risk score for death within 24 h.

AIM

The aim of this study was to compare the ability of the ROX index with the NEWS to predict mortality within 24 h of arrival at the hospital.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational multicentre analysis of data in the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED) on 270 665 patients attending four participating Dutch EDs. The ROX index and NEWS were determined on ED arrival and prior to ED treatment.

RESULTS

The risk of death within 24 h increased with falling ROX and rising NEWS values. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curves for 24-h mortality of NEWS was significantly higher than for the ROX index [0.92; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.91-0.92 versus 0.87; 95% CI, 0.86-0.88; P  < 0.01]. However, the observed and predicted mortality by the ROX index was identical to mortality of 5%, after which mortality was underestimated. In contrast, up to a predicted 24-h mortality of 3% NEWS slightly underestimates mortality, and above this level over-estimates it. The standardized net benefit of ROX is slightly higher than NEWS up to a predicted 24-h mortality of 3%.

CONCLUSION

The prediction of 24-h mortality by the ROX index is more accurate than NEWS for most patients likely to be encountered in the ED. ROX may be used as a first screening tool in the ED.

Early mortality in acute myeloid leukemia with KMT2A rearrangement is associated with high risk of bleeding and disseminated intravascular coagulation

BACKGROUND

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with rearrangement of lysine methyltransferase 2a gene (KMT2Ar) is characterized by chemotherapy resistance and high rates of relapse. However, additional causes of treatment failure or early mortality have not been well-defined in this entity.

METHODS

In a retrospective analysis, causes and rates of early mortality following induction treatment were compared between a cohort of adults with KMT2Ar AML (N = 172) and an age-matched cohort of patients with normal karyotype AML (N = 522).

RESULTS

The 60-day mortality in patients with KMT2Ar AML was 15% compared with 7% with normal karyotype (p = .04). We found a significantly higher occurrence of major bleeding events (p = .005) and total bleeding events (p = .001) in KMT2Ar AML compared with diploid AML. Among evaluable patients with KMT2Ar AML, 93% exhibited overt disseminated intravascular coagulopathy compared with 54% of patients with a normal karyotype before death (p = .03). In a multivariate analysis, KMT2Ar and a monocytic phenotypic were the only independent predictors of any bleeding event in patients who died within 60 days (odds ratio, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.4-10.4; p = .03; odds ratio, 3.2; 95% CI, 1-1-9.4; p = .04, respectively).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, early recognition and aggressive management of disseminated intravascular coagulopathy and coagulopathy are important considerations that could mitigate the risk of death during induction treatment in KMT2Ar AML.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with rearrangement of KMT2A is characterized by chemotherapy resistance and high rates of relapse. However, additional causes of treatment failure or early mortality have not been well-defined in this entity. In this article, that KMT2A-rearranged AML is demonstrably associated with higher early mortality and an increased risk of bleeding and coagulopathy, specifically, disseminated intravascular coagulation, compared with normal karyotype AML. These findings emphasize the importance of monitoring and mitigating coagulopathy in KMT2A-rearranged leukemia similar to what is done in acute promyelocytic leukemia.

The Relationship between Serum miRNAs and Early Mortality in Multiple Myeloma Patients Treated with Bortezomib-Based Regimens

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a hematological malignancy characterized by the clonal proliferation of plasma cells in the bone marrow (BM) microenvironment. Despite the progress made in treatment, some MM patients still die within the first year of diagnosis. Numerous studies investigating microRNA (miRNA) expression patterns suggest they may be good prognostic markers. The primary aim of this study was to analyze the expression of selected miRNAs in the serum of MM patients who were later treated with bortezomib-based regimens, and to determine their potential to predict early mortality. The study was conducted in 70 prospectively recruited patients with newly diagnosed MM admitted to the Department of Hematology of the Copernicus Memorial Hospital, Lodz (Poland) between 2017 and 2021. Among them, 17 patients experienced death within 12 months of diagnosis. The expression of 31 selected miRNAs was determined using a miRCURY LNA miRNA Custom PCR Panel. The obtained clinical data included patient characteristics on diagnosis, treatment regimen, response to treatment, and follow-up. Differential expression analysis found two miRNAs to be significantly downregulated in the early mortality group: hsa-miR-328-3p (fold change-FC: 0.72, p = 0.0342) and hsa-miR-409-3p (FC: 0.49, p = 0.0357). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the early mortality rate. The final model consisted of hsa-miR-409-3p, hsa-miR-328-3p, age, and R-ISS 3. It yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.863 (95%CI: 0.761-0.965) with 88.2% sensitivity and 77.5% specificity. Further external validation of our model is needed to confirm its clinical value.

An ad hoc analysis of the elderly project by the Fondazione Italiana Linfomi

The Elderly Prognostic Index (EPI) is based on the integration of a simplified geriatric assessment, hemoglobin levels and International Prognostic Index and has been validated to predict overall survival in older patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). In this study, we evaluated the ability of EPI to predict the risk of early mortality. This study included all patients registered in the Elderly Project for whom treatment details and a minimum follow-up of 3 months were available. Three main treatment groups were identified based on the anthracycline amount administered: cases receiving >70% of the theoretical anthracyclines dose (Full Dose [FD] group), ≤70% (Reduced Dose [RD]) and palliative therapy (PT; no anthracyclines). The primary endpoint was early mortality rate, defined as death for any cause occurring within 90 days from diagnosis. We identified 1150 patients with a median age of 76 years (range 65-94). Overall, 69 early deaths were observed, accounting for 19% of all reported deaths. The cumulative rate of early mortality at 90 days was 6.0%. Comparing early with delayed deaths, we observed a lower frequency of deaths due to lymphoma progression (42% vs. 75%; p < 0.001) and a higher frequency due to toxicity and infections (22% vs. 4%, p < 0.001, and 22% vs. 3%, p < 0.001, respectively) for early events. A multivariable logistic analysis on 931 patients (excluding PT) confirmed an independent association of high-risk EPI (odds ratio [OR] 3.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15-11.2) and bulky disease (OR 2.08; 95% CI 1.09-3.97) with the risk of early mortality. The cumulative incidence of early mortality for older patients with DLBCL is not negligible and is mainly associated with non-lymphoma related events. For patients receiving anthracyclines, high-risk EPI and bulky disease are associated with a higher probability of early mortality.

Risk Factors for Early Mortality in Older Patients with Traumatic Cervical Spine Injuries-A Multicenter Retrospective Study of 1512 Cases

For older patients with decreased reserve function, traumatic cervical spine injuries frequently lead to early mortality. However, the prognostic factors for early mortality remain unclear. This study included patients aged ≥65 years and hospitalized for treatment of traumatic cervical spine injuries in 78 hospitals between 2010 and 2020. Early mortality was defined as death within 90 days after injury. We evaluated the relationship between early mortality and the following factors: age, sex, body mass index, history of drinking and smoking, injury mechanisms, presence of a cervical spine fracture and dislocation, cervical ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament, diffuse idiopathic skeletal hyperostosis, American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale, concomitant injury, pre-existing comorbidities, steroid administration, and treatment plan. Overall, 1512 patients (mean age, 75.8 ± 6.9 years) were included in the study. The early mortality rate was 4.0%. Multivariate analysis identified older age (OR = 1.1, p < 0.001), male sex (OR = 3.7, p = 0.009), cervical spine fracture (OR = 4.2, p < 0.001), complete motor paralysis (OR = 8.4, p < 0.001), and chronic kidney disease (OR = 5.3, p < 0.001) as risk factors for early mortality. Older age, male sex, cervical spine fracture, complete motor paralysis, and chronic kidney disease are prognostic factors for early mortality in older patients with traumatic cervical spine injuries.

Development and validation of an ensemble machine-learning model for predicting early mortality among patients with bone metastases of hepatocellular carcinoma

Purpose

Using an ensemble machine learning technique that incorporates the results of multiple machine learning algorithms, the study's objective is to build a reliable model to predict the early mortality among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with bone metastases.

Methods

We extracted a cohort of 124,770 patients with a diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and enrolled a cohort of 1897 patients who were diagnosed as having bone metastases. Patients with a survival time of 3 months or less were considered to have had early death. To compare patients with and without early mortality, subgroup analysis was used. Patients were randomly divided into two groups: a training cohort (n = 1509, 80%) and an internal testing cohort (n = 388, 20%). In the training cohort, five machine learning techniques were employed to train and optimize models for predicting early mortality, and an ensemble machine learning technique was used to generate risk probability in a way of soft voting, and it was able to combine the results from the multiply machine learning algorithms. The study employed both internal and external validations, and the key performance indicators included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Brier score, and calibration curve. Patients from two tertiary hospitals were chosen as the external testing cohorts (n = 98). Feature importance and reclassification were both operated in the study.

Results

The early mortality was 55.5% (1052/1897). Eleven clinical characteristics were included as input features of machine learning models: sex (p = 0.019), marital status (p = 0.004), tumor stage (p = 0.025), node stage (p = 0.001), fibrosis score (p = 0.040), AFP level (p = 0.032), tumor size (p = 0.001), lung metastases (p < 0.001), cancer-directed surgery (p < 0.001), radiation (p < 0.001), and chemotherapy (p < 0.001). Application of the ensemble model in the internal testing population yielded an AUROC of 0.779 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.727-0.820), which was the largest AUROC among all models. Additionally, the ensemble model (0.191) outperformed the other five machine learning models in terms of Brier score. In terms of decision curves, the ensemble model also showed favorable clinical usefulness. External validation showed similar results; with an AUROC of 0.764 and Brier score of 0.195, the prediction performance was further improved after revision of the model. Feature importance demonstrated that the top three most crucial features were chemotherapy, radiation, and lung metastases based on the ensemble model. Reclassification of patients revealed a substantial difference in the two risk groups' actual probabilities of early mortality (74.38% vs. 31.35%, p < 0.001). Patients in the high-risk group had significantly shorter survival time than patients in the low-risk group (p < 0.001), according to the Kaplan-Meier survival curve.

Conclusions

The ensemble machine learning model exhibits promising prediction performance for early mortality among HCC patients with bone metastases. With the aid of routinely accessible clinical characteristics, this model can be a trustworthy prognostic tool to predict the early death of those patients and facilitate clinical decision-making.

Risk and protective factors in relation to early mortality among people with serious mental illness: Perspectives of peer support specialists and service users

OBJECTIVE

Individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) experience a 10-25-year reduced life expectancy when compared to the general population that is due, in part, to poor health behaviors. Yet, in spite of the development of health promotion and self-management interventions designed for people with SMI to promote health behavior change, the mortality gap has increased, suggesting that relevant factors are not being addressed. The objective of the present study was to explore potential contributors to early mortality among individuals with SMI by drawing from the lived experience of certified peer support specialists and service users (SUs).

METHOD

Face-to-face semistructured interviews were conducted with a convenience sample of SU participants (n = 17) and certified peer specialists (n = 15). Qualitative data were analyzed using a grounded-theory approach.

RESULTS

We identified a final set of 27 codes relating to five overarching themes that relate to both risk factors and protective factors for early death: social connectedness (24.1% of coded items), treatment (21.3%), coping (21.3%), physical health and wellness (18.5%), and resilience and mental health (14.8%).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Findings add to the literature supporting the powerful role of social processes in shaping health in people with SMI beyond social determinants of health (SDOH; e.g., income, employment) and health behavior change. Interventions that reduce loneliness and isolation in combination with addressing more conventional SDOH may have the most potential to reduce early mortality in people with SMI. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

The Palliative Prognostic (PaP) Score without Clinical Evaluation Predicts Early Mortality among Advanced NSCLC Patients Treated with Immunotherapy

Background: An acceptable risk-benefit ratio may encourage the prescription of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) near the late stage of life. The lung immune prognostic index (LIPI) was validated in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with ICIs. The palliative prognostic (PaP) score without clinical prediction of survival (PaPwCPS) predicts early mortality probability in terminal cancer patients. Methods: We performed a retrospective study including 182 deceased advanced NSCLC patients, treated with single-agent ICI at our Institution. Two prognostic categories of high and low mortality risk were identified through ROC curve analysis for PaPwCPS and LIPI scores. Results: Most were >65 years of age (68.3%) and received second-line ICI (61.2%). A total of 29 (15.9%) and 131 (72.0%) patients died within 30 and 90 days from treatment start, respectively. A total of 81 patients (44.5%) received ICI during the last month of life. Baseline PaPwCPS and LIPI scores were assessable for 78 patients. The AUC of ROC curves was significantly increased for PaPwCPS as compared with LIPI score for both 30-day and 90-day mortality. A high PaPwCPS score was associated in multivariate analysis with increased 30-day (HR 2.69, p = 0.037) and 90-day (HR 4.01, p < 0.001) mortality risk. A high LIPI score was associated with increased 90-day mortality risk (p < 0.001). Conclusion: We found a tendency towards ICI prescription near the late stage of life. The PaPwCPS score was a reliable predictor of 30- and 90-day mortality.

Survival for patients with metastatic colon cancer underwent cytoreductive colectomy in the era of rapid development of anticancer drugs: A real-world analysis based on updated population dataset of 2004-2018

Objective: Metastatic colon cancer (mCC) poses a great threat to the survival of patients suffering from it. In the past decade, many clinical trials have been carried out to improve the prognosis of patients with mCC. Numerous treatments have emerged, and satisfactory efficacy has been demonstrated in randomized phase III trials in highly selective patients with mCC. Our present study aims to investigate whether these therapeutic advances can be reflected to the broader mCC patients who performed cytoreductive colectomy. Method: General and prognostic data for patients diagnosed with mCC who underwent cytoreductive colectomy between 2004-2018 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards model. The hazard ratio (HR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to evaluate the influence of risk factors on prognosis. Results: A total of 26,301 patients diagnosed with mCC treated with cytoreductive colectomy were included in this study. The median overall survival was 19 months (range, 17-23). The good prognosis was associated with patients diagnosed at the most recent year, younger age, non-black race, female, married, without previous history of malignancy, no second malignancy onset, descending/sigmoid/splenic flexure colon tumor, normal CEA levels at diagnosis, low primary tumor burden, T1/T2 stage, N0 stage, single organ metastasis, underwent surgical resection of synchronous distant metastatic lymph nodes or organs, a high number of lymph-node examinations, low positive lymph-node ratio and received adjuvant chemotherapy. The proportion of patients surviving for ≥24 months increased from 37% in 2004 to 44.2% in 2016 (p < 0.001), especially in ≤49 years patients [46.8% in 2004 to 57.8% in 2016 (p < 0.001)]. The percentage of patients who died within 3 months decreased between 2004 and 2018 (from 19.6% to 15.7%; p < 0.001). Conclusion: Over a span of 15 years, the long-term survival has improved in real-world mCC patients who were treated with cytoreductive colectomy, especially among younger patients. However, the median overall survival remains not substantial.

Risk factors for evaluating early mortality after microvascular reconstruction of head and neck cancers

BACKGROUND

Free tissue transfer reconstruction carries significant complication rates in surgical head and neck oncology. A registry-based approach offers a possibility to investigate the factors affecting increased morbidity and early mortality, that is, death within 6 months of treatment.

METHODS

A retrospective registry review was conducted on a series of 317 consecutive microvascular free tissue transfers in head and neck cancer patients performed during 2013-2017 at the Helsinki University Hospital (Helsinki, Finland). All surviving patients had a minimum follow-up of 2 years (range 24-84 months).

RESULTS

Overall, 36 (11.4%) early deaths occurred in this series. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, patients aged 75 years and older (p = 0.019), Adult Comorbidity Evaluation-27 (ACE-27) score of 3 (p = 0.048), tumor class T3 (p = 0.005), lymph node class N2 (p = 0.014), or thrombocyte count of 360 (× 10⁹ L) or more (p = 0.001) were more likely to die within 6 months of surgery. Of these 36 patients, 27 (75%) had a complication warranting hospital care and most (n = 22, 61%) had several complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Early postoperative mortality most frequently affects patients aged 75 years and above, with a high ACE-27 score, advanced tumor stage, or high thrombocyte count. Therefore, preoperative assessment and patient selection should have a crucial role in this patient population.

Prediction of Early Mortality Among Children With Moderate or Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Based on a Nomogram Integrating Radiological and Inflammation-Based Biomarkers

Inflammation-based scores have been increasingly used for prognosis prediction in neurological diseases. This study aimed to investigate the predictive value of inflammation-based scores combined with radiological characteristics in children with moderate or severe traumatic brain injury (MS-TBI). A total of 104 pediatric patients with MS-TBI were retrospectively enrolled and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of prognosis in pediatric patients with MS-TBI. A prognostic nomogram was constructed, and its predictive performance was validated in both the training and validation cohorts. Sex, admission platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, and basal cistern status from initial CT findings were identified as independent prognostic predictors for children with MS-TBI in multivariate logistic analysis. Based on these findings, a nomogram was then developed and its concordance index values were 0.918 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.837-0.999] in the training cohort and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.70-1.00) in the validation cohort, which significantly outperformed those of the Rotterdam, Marshall, and Helsinki CT scores. The proposed nomogram, based on routine complete blood count and initial CT scan findings, can contribute to individualized prognosis prediction and clinical decision-making in children with MS-TBI.

Impact of Coronary Artery Anatomy in Arterial Switch Operation: In-hospital and Post-discharge Outcomes

OBJECTIVE

The influence of the coronary artery anatomy on the prognosis of patients receiving an arterial switch operation (ASO) is currently controversial, and the risk factors for this operation may change in more complicated patients. This study aimed to investigate the influence of coronary artery anomalies on the in-hospital and post-discharge outcomes of ASO in patients with transposition of the great arteries (TGA) and Taussig-Bing anomaly (TBA).

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 206 patients who underwent ASO from January 2007 to December 2019. The median age at operation was 33 [interquartile range (IQR): 20-71] days. Median follow-up time was 7.2 years (IQR: 4.0-10.3 years).

RESULTS

Coronary anomalies were present in 86 patients (41.7%), with 9 (4.4%) of them having a single coronary artery. Additional coronary features included intramural courses in 5 (2.4%) patients, ostial stenosis in 1 (0.5%) patient, and accessory coronary artery orifices in 5 (2.4%) patients. There were 32 (15.5%) in-hospital deaths and 8 (4.6%) post-discharge deaths, yielding an overall survival of 81.3%, 80.7% and 79.9% at 1, 5 and 10 years, respectively. Mortality due to ASO has been drastically decreased since 2013. Patients with a single coronary artery had higher rate of in-hospital mortality, but this finding was not statistically significant. The earlier surgical era (OR: 2.756) and a longer cardiopulmonary bypass time (OR: 2.336) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality, while coronary patterns were not. An intramural coronary artery (HR: 10.034) and a patient age of older than 1 year at the time of ASO (HR: 9.706) were independent predictors of post-discharge mortality.

CONCLUSION

ASO remains the procedure of choice for TGA with coronary anomalies with acceptable in-hospital and post-discharge outcomes in terms of overall survival and freedom of reoperation. However, intramural coronary artery is an independent risk factor for post-discharge mortality. Timely surgery within the 1st year of life helps improve overall midterm survival of ASO.

Risk factors for early mortality of lung cancer patients in France: A nationwide analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite therapeutic advances, lung cancer remains the first cause of death from cancer. The main objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with death within 3-months of the first hospitalization for lung cancer in France.

METHODS

This analysis included patients with a first hospitalization for lung cancer (between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2018) according to diagnosis-related groups entered into the French national medical-administrative database. Clinical and socioeconomic parameters and characteristics of that first hospitalization were analyzed. A model predictive of early mortality was developed based on those variables.

RESULTS

The 144,087 included patients were 67% men; median age of 68 [interquartile range 60-76] years; 47% had metastatic disease at diagnosis; and 34% and 23%, respectively, had received systemic treatment or undergone curative surgery. The 3-month mortality was 19%, and significantly higher for those ≥70 versus <70 years old (OR 1.33, 1.22-1.45), men versus. women (OR 1.50, 1.44-1.55), those with metastatic disease at diagnosis (OR, 3.30, 3.18-3.43), first hospitalization via the emergency room (OR 1.65 1.59-1.71) and first hospitalization lasting >30 days (OR, 1.58 1.49-1.68). In contrast, no socioeconomic characteristic was associated with early mortality.

CONCLUSION

Almost 1 in 5 patients diagnosed with lung cancer in France died within 3 months post-diagnosis. Improving survival requires diagnosis at an earlier stage and better organization of diagnosis and specific care pathways.

Admission Emergency Department Point-of-care Biomarkers for Prediction of Early Mortality in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND/AIM

Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) has a significant morbidity and mortality, despite representing a non-dominant hemorrhagic stroke. The aim of the study was to assess the impact of the emergency department (ED) point-of-care (POC) biomarkers on early mortality in sICH patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Demographic data, medical history and admission clinical parameters from adult patients with imaging-based sICH diagnosis were collected retrospectively, upon their ED presentation over a period of 18 months. ED-based POC analyzers were used for blood biomarkers [complete blood count, C reactive protein (CRP), glycemia, hepatic and renal function, D-dimer and cardiac troponin I]. Derived inflammatory indexes were calculated. Mortality endpoints were collected (on day 7 and at discharge).

RESULTS

Of the 219 included patients, mortality rates reached 30.14% on day 7 and 46.12% at discharge. In the univariate analysis, day 7 mortality was significantly associated with history of diabetes, atrial fibrillation, ongoing anticoagulant treatment, the need of endotracheal intubation and ED cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and the presence of intraventricular hemorrhage and mass effect on the initial CT scan. White blood cells and granulocytes (but not the neutrophil-to-lymphocytes ratio, nor the CRP) were significantly higher in the deceased groups, alongside serum glucose. Derived inflammatory indexes were not significantly correlated with mortality endpoints. Cut-off values of 9.6×10⁹/l for granulocytes and 132 mg/dl for glucose were identified as day 7 mortality predictors.

CONCLUSION

sICH is a potentially severe condition causing high early mortality. Emergency department point-of-care biomarkers could represent a readily available and simple to use prognostic tool.

Premature Mortality in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Associated with Heart Failure and Chronic Kidney Disease: 20 Years of Real-World Data

Introduction: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) increases the risk of heart failure (HF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Nonetheless, evidence of cardiovascular (CV) prognosis is relatively scarce in young T2D patients. Purpose: To estimate the risk of all-cause death, CV death, and non-fatal major CV events (MACEs) in T2D patients younger than 65 years old. Methods: We designed a retrospective cohort study using incident cases of either T2D, HF, or CKD in the population aged 40–65 years, from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2019. Each individual was followed for up to one year. The primary analysis consisted of survival analysis with Cox proportional hazards to compare one-year risk of all-cause death, CV death, and MACEs between T2D without HF or CKD (T2D), T2D with HF (T2D-HF), and T2D with CKD (T2D-CKD) groups. Results: A total of 14,986 incident adult diabetic patients from the last two decades in our institution were included with an average age at cohort inclusion of 55–58 years old. Glycemic control was similar among groups. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of one-year all-cause death was 2.77 (95% CI: 2.26–3.40) for T2D-HF and 3.09 (2.77–3.45) for T2D-CKD compared with the baseline T2D risk. The highest event rate (T2D-CKD) was 0.15 per person-year. The adjusted HR of one-year CV death was 2.75 (95% CI: 2.19–3.46) for T2D-CKD and 2.59 (1.72–3.91) for T2D-HF. The non-fatal MACE risk was significantly increased in T2D-HF or T2D-CKD compared with T2D (2.82 (CI95%: 2.34–3.41) for T2D-CKD vs. 1.90 (CI95%: 1.66–2.17) for T2D-CKD) with a 32% event rate in non-fatal MACEs. Conclusions: Coexistence of HF or CKD is associated with increased premature mortality as well as non-fatal CV events in T2D patients under 65 years old.

Clinical Prediction Scoring Scheme for 24 h Mortality in Major Traumatic Adult Patients

A death rate of approximately 32.7 in 100,000 traffic injury victims was reported in Thailand. The prediction of early death would identify and enable prioritization of the most severe patients for resuscitation and consequently reduce the number of deaths. This study aimed to develop a clinical prediction scoring system for 24 h mortality in adult major trauma patients. Retrospective-prognostic clinical prediction was applied in the case of 3173 adult trauma patients who were classified into three groups: death within 8 h, death between 8 and 24 h, and alive at 24 h. The predictors were obtained by univariable and multivariable logistic regression, and the coefficient of parameters was converted to predict early death. The numbers of patients who died within 8 h and between 8 and 24 h were 46 (1.5%) and 123 (3.8%), respectively. The predictors included systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg, heart rate ≥120 bpm, Glasgow coma scale ≤8, traffic injury, and assault injury. The scores of 4 indicated a mortality rate of 12% with a high specificity of 0.89. The suggested TERMINAL-24 scoring system can be used for the prediction of early death in the Emergency Department. However, its discrimination ability and precision should be validated before practical use.

Off-pump versus on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting for octogenarians: A meta-analysis involving 146 372 patients

There is an ongoing debate concerning the optimal surgical option of myocardial revascularization for octogenarians. The current meta‐analysis aimed to compare clinical outcomes following off‐pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCABG) or conventional coronary artery bypass grafting (CCABG) in octogenarians. PubMed, Cochrane, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases were searched to identify eligible studies from inception to March 2021. The analysis was performed using STATA 15.1. A literature search yielded 18 retrospective studies involving 146 372 patients (OPCABG = 44 522 vs. CCABG = 101 850). Pooled analysis showed a strong trend toward reducing mortality risk in the OPCABG group (odds ratio: 0.75, 95% confidence interval: 0.56–1.00, p = .05). However, it did not reach statistical significance. The sensitive analysis demonstrated that OPCABG was less likely to cause death than CCABG. There were comparable data in myocardial infarction, renal failure, deep sternal wound infection, and hospital stays between the two groups, although the incidence of stroke, atrial fibrillation, prolonged ventilation, and reoperation for bleeding was significantly lower in the OPCAGB group. OPCABG may be an effective surgical strategy for myocardial revascularization, especially in reducing the incidence of postoperative stroke, atrial fibrillation, prolonged ventilation, and reoperation for bleeding.

Low total cholesterol predicts early death in children with hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis

BACKGROUND

Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is a rapidly progressive and potentially life-threatening disorder. Identifying risk factors and timely adjustment of the given treatment regimens is critical to reducing the early mortality in HLH patients. Hypocholesterolemia has been reported to be associated with poor prognosis in a variety of critical illnesses. However, serum cholesterol is rarely studied in HLH patients, and its prognostic value is unclear.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders (Chongqing), identifying pediatric HLH patients (including genetically confirmed pHLH and not genetically confirmed pHLH) diagnosed with the HLH-2004 protocol and treated with immunochemotherapy between January 2008 and December 2020. The patients' blood lipid levels at initial diagnosis of HLH, including triglycerides (TG), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), were reviewed based on electronic medical records. Both Cox and logistic regression models were used to estimate the effects of blood lipid indicators on early death (within 30 days after diagnosis).

RESULTS

A total of 353 patients were enrolled in the study, with a median age at diagnosis of 45 months. The observed 30-day mortality rate was 19.05% (64/336, 17 were lost to follow-up) and Kaplan-Meier-estimated 3-year survival rate was 61.67% (95% CI, 56.27%-67.59%). DNA-targeted sequencing of HLH-related genes was performed in 173 (49.0%, 173/353) patients (not all patients with suspected pHLH underwent genetic testing), and 29 patients were diagnosed with genetically confirmed pHLH. Lipid panel was performed in 349 patients: 91.98% (321/349) had TG ≥ 1.80 mmol/L, 62.75%(219/349) had TG ≥ 3.00 mmol/L, 92.84% (324/349) had HDL-C ≤ 1.04 mmol/L, 58.74% (205/349) had LDL-C ≤ 1.30 mmol/L and 24.64% (86/349) had TC ≤ 3.11 mmol/L. TC ≤ 3.11 mmol/L and BUN ≥ 7.14 mmol/L were the independent risk factors for 30-day mortality [HR(95%CI): 2.85(1.46, 5.57) and 2.90(1.48, 5.68), respectively]. The presence of one of these risk factors increased the 30-day mortality rate by 6-fold [HR = 6.24, 95%CI: (3.18, 12.22)] and the presence of two risk factors by nearly 10-fold [HR = 9.98, 95%CI: (4.23, 23.56)] compared with the patients with no risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Severe derangement of lipoproteins is common in children with HLH, and decreased TC is an independent risk factor for early death. Hypocholesterolemia should be included as a biomarker during the diagnosis and management of HLH patients.

Increased survival disparities among children and adolescents & young adults with acute myeloid leukemia: A Dutch population-based study

For many cancers, adolescents and young adults (AYAs) have a poorer prognosis than pediatric patients. Our study evaluates survival outcomes of children (0‐17 years) and AYAs (18‐39 years) diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in the Netherlands between 1990 and 2015 (N = 2058) utilizing the population‐based Netherlands Cancer Registry, which includes information on therapy and site of primary treatment. Five‐ and 10‐year relative (disease‐specific) survival were estimated for all patients, children and AYAs. Multivariable analyses were performed using generalized linear models (excess mortality) and logistic regression (early mortality). AYAs with AML had a substantially lower 5‐ and 10‐year relative survival than children (5‐year: 43% vs 58%; 10‐year: 37% vs 51%). The gap in 5‐year relative survival was largest (nearly 20 percent‐points) in 2010 to 2015, despite survival improvements over time across all ages. The multivariable‐adjusted excess risk of dying was 60% higher in AYAs (95% CI: 37%‐86%). Early mortality (death within 30 days of diagnosis) declined over time, and did not differ between children and AYAs. In conclusion, AYAs diagnosed with AML in the Netherlands had a worse prognosis than pediatric patients. The survival gap seemed most pronounced in recent years, suggesting that improvements in care resulting in better outcome for children have not led to equal benefits for AYAs.

Redefining Remission Induction Chemotherapy Ineligibility by Early Mortality in De Novo Acute Myeloid Leukemia

The therapeutic strategies for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients ineligible for remission induction chemotherapy have been improving in the past decade. Therefore, it is important to define ineligibility for remission induction chemotherapy. We retrospectively assessed 153 consecutive adult de novo AML patients undergoing remission induction chemotherapy and defined early mortality as death within the first 60 days of treatment. The 153 patients were stratified into the early mortality group (n = 29) and the non-early mortality group (n = 124). We identified potential factors to which early mortality could be attributed, investigated the cumulative incidence of early mortality for each aspect, and quantified the elements. The early mortality rate in our study cohort was 19.0%. Age ≥ 65 years (odds ratio (OR): 3.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05–9.44; p = 0.041), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 2 (OR: 4.87; 95% CI: 1.77–13.41; p = 0.002), and lactate dehydrogenase ≥ 1000 IU/L (OR: 4.20; 95% CI: 1.57–11.23; p = 0.004) were the risk factors that substantially increased early mortality in AML patients. Patients with two risk factors had a significantly higher early mortality rate than those with one risk factor (68.8% vs. 20.0%; p < 0.001) or no risk factors (68.8% vs. 9.2%; p < 0.001). In conclusion, older age, poor clinical performance, and a high tumor burden were risks for early mortality in AML patients receiving remission induction chemotherapy. Patients harboring at least two of these three factors should be more carefully assessed for remission induction chemotherapy.

Lung transplantation from uncontrolled and controlled donation after circulatory death: similar outcomes to brain death donors

Controlled donation after circulatory death donors (cDCD) are becoming a frequent source of lungs grafts worldwide. Conversely, lung transplantations (LTx) from uncontrolled donors (uDCD) are sporadically reported. We aimed to review our institutional experience using both uDCD and cDCD and compare to LTx from brain death donors (DBD). This is a retrospective analysis of all LTx performed between January 2013 and December 2019 in our institution. Donor and recipient characteristics were collected and univariate, multivariate and survival analyses were carried out comparing the three cohorts of donors. A total of 239 (84.7%) LTx were performed from DBD, 29 (10.3%) from cDCD and 14 (5%) from uDCD. There were no statistically significant differences in primary graft dysfunction grade 3 at 72 h, 30- and 90-day mortality, need for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation after procedure, ICU and hospital length of stay, airway complications, CLAD incidence or survival at 1 and 3 years after transplant (DBD: 87.1% and 78.1%; cDCD: 89.7% and 89.7%; uDCD: 85.7% and 85.7% respectively; P = 0.42). Short- and mid-term outcomes are comparable between the three types of donors. These findings may encourage and reinforce all types of donation after circulatory death programmes as a valid and growing source of suitable organs for transplantation.

Impact of sociodemographic factors on early mortality in acute promyelocytic leukemia in the United States: A time-trend analysis

BACKGROUND

The survival of patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) has dramatically improved with the use of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) and arsenic trioxide (ATO). However, because of the complexity of the initial management, early mortality (EM) remains a major contributor to treatment failure. It is less known whether advances in treatment, urgent access to specialized care, and broad availability of ATRA/ATO have reduced EM in the last 2 decades. Furthermore, the influence of sociodemographic factors on the risk of EM also remains unclear.

METHODS

This study used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to characterize the impact of sociodemographic factors on the rates of EM and overall survival (OS) in patients with APL diagnosed between 1992 and 2015.

RESULTS

In all, 2224 cases were identified (895 who were younger than 40 years and 1329 who were 40 years old or older); 47.9% had a county-level median household income of $59,630 or higher, 49.0% belonged to counties where more than 31% of adults held at least a bachelor's degree, and 86.0% resided in urban areas. The rate of EM declined from 31.5% in 1992-1995 to 15.9% in 2012-2015 for all patients. It improved for patients younger than 40 years (27.4% in 1992-1995 vs 5.4% in 2012-2015; P < .001) and for patients 40 years old or older but not to the same extent (35.2% in 1992-1995 vs 22.2% in 2012-2015; P = .02). Importantly, improvements in EM were not seen among patients residing in rural areas, with the rate remaining higher than 20% in 2012-2015. The 3-year OS rate was 49.2% for patients with APL diagnosed in 1992-1995 and 76.4% for patients diagnosed in 2012-2015.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings confirm consistent improvements in EM and OS for patients with APL and point to the challenge of further extending these improvements in EM rates to older patients and to those living in rural areas.

Social Processes Associated With Health and Health Behaviors Linked to Early Mortality in People With a Diagnosis of a Serious Mental Illness

Individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) experience a 10- to 25-year reduced life expectancy compared with the general population. Early mortality for people with SMI has mainly been attributed to unhealthy behaviors (e.g., poor diet, sedentary lifestyle), which has led to the development of health promotion and self-management interventions specifically for people with SMI to promote health behavior change. Yet after decades of research, the mortality gap between people with SMI and the general population is increasing. To address this early mortality disparity for individuals with SMI, a new paradigm must be explored. In this article, we present the social processes impacting early mortality in people with SMI paradigm, which highlights the powerful role of social processes in shaping the health and health behaviors of people with SMI. This paradigm explores how loneliness, stigma (social and self), trauma, social exclusion, social isolation, and social norms are related to early mortality in people with SMI. This new paradigm is an important step in understanding and potentially addressing early mortality in people with SMI.

Efficacy and Survival after Palliative Radiotherapy for Malignant Pulmonary Obstruction

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of palliative radiotherapy (PRT) for patients with pulmonary obstruction from advanced malignancy and identify factors associated with lung re-expansion and survival. Materials and Methods: We reviewed all patients treated with PRT for malignant pulmonary obstruction (n = 108) at our institution between 2010 and 2018. Radiographic evidence of lung re-expansion was determined through review of follow-up CT or chest X-ray. Cumulative incidence of re-expansion and overall survival (OS) were estimated using competing risk methodology. Clinical characteristics were evaluated for association with re-expansion, OS, and early mortality. Treatment time to remaining life ratio (TT:RL) was evaluated as a novel metric for palliative treatment. Results: Eighty-one percent of patients had collapse of an entire lung lobe, 46% had Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status 3-4, and 64% were inpatient at consultation. Eighty-four patients had follow-up imaging available, and 25 (23%) of all patients had lung re-expansion at median time of 35 days. Rates of death without re-expansion were 38% and 65% at 30 and 90 days, respectively. Median OS was 56 days. Death within 30 days of PRT occurred in 38%. Inpatients and larger tumors trended toward lower rates of re-expansion. Notable factors associated with OS were re-expansion, nonlung histology, tumor size, and performance status. Median TT:RL was 0.11 and significantly higher for subgroups: ECOG 3-4 (0.19), inpatients (0.16), patients with larger tumors (0.14), those unfit for systemic therapy (0.17), and with 10-fraction PRT (0.14). Conclusion: One-fourth of patients experienced re-expansion after PRT for malignant pulmonary obstruction. Survival is poor and a significant proportion of remaining life may be spent on treatment. Careful consideration of these clinical factors is recommended when considering PRT fractionation.

Association of Venous Thromboembolism and Early Mortality in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose

To explore the relationship between venous thromboembolism (VTE) and early mortality (within six months) in Chinese patients with newly diagnosed metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after entering the era of precision treatment.

Methods

A cohort of 706 consecutive subjects with newly diagnosed metastatic NSCLC were prospectively observed. Clinical and survival data were recorded over a six-month follow-up period. The predictive factors for the occurrence of VTE and the relationship with early mortality were evaluated through univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results

During the six-month follow-up period, VTE events occurred in 12.2% (86/706) of the enrolled patients. In the multivariate analyses for VTE, an age older than 70 years (vs < 70: sub-distribution hazard radio [SHR], 1.678; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.073–2.600; P=0.022), an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥2 (vs 0/1: SHR, 1.946; 95% CI, 1.277–2.970; P=0.002), and having an ALK rearrangement (vs non-rearrangement: SHR, 2.377; 95% CI, 1.186–4.760; P=0.015) were significantly associated with the occurrence of VTE. Within six months, 116 subjects (16.4%) died, and the occurrence of VTE (vs no VTE: adjusted HR: 1.863; 95% CI: 1.178–2.947, P=0.008) was remarkably associated with early mortality. Further analysis showed 98 patients (13.9%) with early mortality had EGFR/ALK wild-type genes, with a risk of early mortality 5.935-fold higher than that of patients with an EGFR mutation/ALK rearrangement. Finally, subgroup analyses showed that VTE occurrence was a significant factor for predicting early mortality in patients with EGFR/ALK wild-type genes (adjusted HR: 1.682; 95% CI: 1.023–2.768, P=0.041).

Conclusion

Patients with an EGFR mutation/ALK rearrangement had a significantly decreased risk of early mortality in the era of targeted therapy; however, VTE occurrence remained an important predictor for early mortality in metastatic NSCLC patients, especially in patients with EGFR/ALK wild-type genes.

Impact of Pre-, Intra-and Post-Operative Parameters on In-Hospital Mortality in Patients Undergoing Emergency Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Scarce Single-Center Experience in Resource-Scare Setting

Background

In-hospital mortality after emergency coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) remains an important issue that has needed considerable attention in recent years as the mortality rate is still high and prevention factors are not yet optimal. Our study presents the first largest cohort of emergency CABG from one large institution in Vietnam with the primary aim of comparing a large variety of pre-, intra-and post-operative parameters between in-hospital mortality patients and in-hospital survival patients and investigate risk factors of in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing emergency CABG.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective evaluation of prospectively collected data in patients undergoing emergency CABG at the Hanoi Heart Hospital (Hanoi, Vietnam) from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019. Primary outcome variable was in-hospital mortality.

Results

A total of 71 patients were included in final analysis. The mean age of the cohort was 68.68 years (± 9.28, range 38-86). The mean weight, height and body mass index were 54.35 kg (± 9.17, range 37-77), 158.96 (±7.64, range 145-179) and 21.48 kg/m² (±3.08, range 13.59-30.08), respectively. In-hospital mortality rate was 9.86%. Preoperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality included diabetes, decreased ejection fraction (EF), EF below 30%, cardiogenic shock, elevated systolic pulmonary artery pressure (PAP), elevated NT-ProBNP, and Euroscore II. Without grafting with left internal thoracic artery, and prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time were increased intraoperative factors for in-hospital mortality risk. In-hospital mortality's postoperative risk factors were found to be postextubation respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation, ventricular fibrillation, dialysis-requiring acute renal failure, pneumonia, bacterial sepsis, gastrointestinal bleeding, and prolonged mechanical ventilation time. Significant predictors determining in-hospital mortality were known as prolonged CPB time in surgery and postoperative ventricular fibrillation.

Conclusion

Our hospital mortality rate after emergency CABG was relatively high. An optimal preventive strategy in emergency CABG management should target significant factors combined with other previously identified risk factors to reduce in-hospital mortality.

Predictive factors associated with the clinical outcome of intertrochanteric hip fracture in high-risk elderly patients treated with total hip arthroplasty versus percutaneous external fixation

Background

Little is known regarding the survival and functional recovery of elderly intertrochanteric hip fracture (IHF) patients after total hip arthroplasty (THA) versus percutaneous external fixation (PEF). This study aims to analyze the prognostic factors of THA and PEF in elderly IHF patients.

Methods

A total of 155 consecutive elderly patients (mean age of 80 years) diagnosed with IHF were retrospectively reviewed from our database between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2018. The preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative covariates were analyzed by two independent surgical cohorts: THA and PEF. The main outcomes included the hip function score, all-cause mortality within 1 year after surgery, and overall survival. Covariables and their influence on independent outcomes were analyzed using multivariate regression models.

Results

The median follow-up period was 5.1 years, and 6 patients were lost to follow-up. At the endpoint, 70 of 85 patients treated with THA and 37 of 70 patients treated with PEF survived, exhibiting mean Harris hip scores of 84.4 and 69.0, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests showed no significant difference in overall survival. After adjusting for the covariates, the surgical mode was a unique prognostic factor affecting hip function recovery, and two prognostic factors (leukocyte count and D-dimer) were correlated with 1-year all-cause mortality. Age at admission, fracture classification, D-dimer level and surgical mode were identified as prognostic factors affecting overall survival. After adjusting for the former three covariates, THA reduced the risk of death by 67.20% compared with PEF (HR 0.328, 95% CI, 0.121–0.890).

Conclusions

Despite the nonsignificant difference in 1-year all-cause mortality, THA demonstrated superior midterm survival and hip function recovery in elderly IHF patients compared with PEF. Predictive factors, including age at admission, fracture classification, D-dimer level and surgical mode, are associated with the overall survival of IHF in high-risk elderly patients.

A Parsimonious Host Inflammatory Biomarker Signature Predicts Incident Tuberculosis and Mortality in Advanced Human Immunodeficiency Virus

BACKGROUND

People with advanced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (CD4 < 50) remain at high risk of tuberculosis (TB) or death despite the initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We aimed to identify immunological profiles that were most predictive of incident TB disease and death.

METHODS

The REMEMBER randomized clinical trial enrolled 850 participants with HIV (CD4 < 50 cells/µL) at ART initiation to receive either empiric TB treatment or isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT). A case-cohort study (n = 257) stratified by country and treatment arm was performed. Cases were defined as incident TB or all-cause death within 48 weeks after ART initiation. Using multiplexed immunoassay panels and ELISA, 26 biomarkers were assessed in plasma.

RESULTS

In total, 52 (6.1%) of 850 participants developed TB; 47 (5.5%) died (13 of whom had antecedent TB). Biomarkers associated with incident TB overlapped with those associated with death (interleukin [IL]-1β, IL-6). Biomarker levels declined over time in individuals with incident TB while remaining persistently elevated in those who died. Dividing the cohort into development and validation sets, the final model of 6 biomarkers (CXCL10, IL-1β, IL-10, sCD14, tumor necrosis factor [TNF]-α, and TNF-β) achieved a sensitivity of 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI]: .87-.94) and a specificity of 0.71(95% CI: .68-.75) with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81 (95% CI: .78-.83) for incident TB.

CONCLUSION

Among people with advanced HIV, a parsimonious inflammatory biomarker signature predicted those at highest risk for developing TB despite initiation of ART and TB preventive therapies. The signature may be a promising stratification tool to select patients who may benefit from increased monitoring and novel interventions.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT01380080.

De novo acute myeloid leukemia: A population-based study of outcome in the United States based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, 1980 to 2017

BACKGROUND

Several important treatment and supportive care strategies have been implemented over the past 4 decades in the management of acute myeloid leukemia (AML).

METHODS

The authors identified 29,107 patients who were diagnosed with de novo AML between 1980 and 2017 in the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Patients were categorized into 5 age groups (ages birth to 14, 15-39, 40-59, 60-69, and ≥70 years) and 4 calendar periods (1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2017). The outcomes of patients who had AML within these categories were analyzed.

RESULTS

The overall 5-year survival rates in patients with AML were 9%, 15%, 22%, and 28% in the decades 1980 to 1989, 1990 to 1999, 2000 to 2009, and 2010 to 2017, respectively. Among patients aged 15 to 39 years, the 5-year survival rates were 24%, 41%, 52%, and 63%, respectively; among those aged ≥70 years, the 5-year survival rates were 1%, 2%, 3%, and 5%, respectively. Four-week mortality was surprising high among adults and older patients (range, 20%-45%), even in modern times. Overall, survival continued to improve over the calendar periods and was best in the period from 2010 to 2017. Survival improvement was noticeable across all age groups except patients aged ≥70 years, in whom the estimated 5-year survival rate remained 5% even during the period from 2010 to 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

The outcomes of patients with AML showed incremental improvement over time in a population-based study of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. The introduction since 2017 of targeted therapies among older patients and optimizations in supportive care hopefully will continue to improve outcomes in AML, particularly among older patients.

Preoperative Predictors of Early Mortality Risk in Isocitrate Dehydrogenase-Wild-Type Glioblastoma Patients Treated with Standard Therapy

Purpose

Early identification of early mortality for glioblastoma (GBM) patients based on laboratory findings at the time of diagnosis could improve the overall survival. The study aimed to explore preoperative factors associated with higher risk of early death (within 1 year after surgery) for isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) -wild-type (wt) GBM patients.

Patients and Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of 194 IDH-wt GBM patients who underwent standard treatment. The probability of dying within 1 year after gross total resection (GTR) was defined as the end point “early mortality”. Retrospective collection of predictive factors including clinical characteristics and laboratory data at diagnosis.

Results

Median follow-up time after GTR was 16 months (3–41 months). Forty-two patients died within 1 year after surgery (1‐year mortality rate: 21.6%). All potential predictive factors were assessed on univariate analyses, which revealed the following factors as associated with higher risk of early death: older age (P = 0.013), occurrence of non-seizures symptoms (P = 0.042), special tumor positions (P = 0.046), higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (P = 0.015), higher red blood cell distribution width (RDW) (P = 0.019), higher lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (P = 0.005), and higher fibrinogen (FIB) (P = 0.044). In a multivariate analysis, tumor location (P = 0.012), NLR (P = 0.032) and LDH (P = 0.002) were independent predictors of early mortality. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.795. The calibration curve showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation.

Conclusion

Tumor location, preoperative elevated NLR and serum LDH level were independent predictors for 1‐year mortality after GTR. We indicate that increased preoperative NLR or LDH may guide patients to review head magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) more frequently and regularly to monitor tumor progression.

Radiotherapy as a Primary Treatment for Prostate Cancer: A Population-Based Study From the United States and East Germany

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Risk factors of early mortality after surgical treatment for infective endocarditis

OBJECTIVES

To explore the basic clinical characteristics and relevant factors affecting the early postoperative prognosis in patients with infective endocarditis (IE).

METHODS

A total of 702 patients with IE, who underwent surgery in Xiangya Hospital, Central South University from January 1981 to June 2019, were studied and the data were collected through the paper records and the hospital information system. The patients from January 1981 to June 2010 served as an early group (n=224), and other patients from July 2010 to June 2019 served as a recent group (n=478). Independent risk factors for early postoperative death were determined by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The mean age of the 702 patients was 36.7±16.1 years, and the male accounted for 68.1%. Preoperative stroke occurred in 71 patients (10.1%), and dialysis was done in 14 patients (2%) preoperatively. Streptococcus were the pathogenic bacteria in 172 patients, accounting for 59.5% of all positive blood culture results. In the early group, the percentage of IE combined with congenital heart disease was significantly higher than that in the recent group [77 patients (34.4%) in the early group vs 22 patients (4.6%) in the recent group; P<0.05]. Postoperative stroke occurred in 15 patients (2.1%), while 59 patients (7%) required new dialysis postoperatively because of renal insufficiency. Twenty-nine patient died in the post-operation, with 4.1% in 30-day mortality. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the high preoperative New York Heart Association (NYHA) grade of cardiac function (OR=3.22, 95% CI 1.50-6.88; P<0.01), postoperative stroke (OR=5.75, 95% CI 1.22-27.07; P<0.05), postoperative dialysis (OR=15.53, 95% CI 3.50-68.82; P<0.01), perivalvular abscess (OR=13.19, 95% CI 3.83-45.42; P<0.01) and multivalve involvement (OR=3.57, 95% CI 1.24-10.30; P<0.05) were the independent risk factors for early mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Streptococcus is the most common pathogenic bacteria in the patients with IE. Surgery for IE can obtain a satisfactory early outcomes. High preoperative NYHA grade of cardiac function, postoperative stroke, postoperative dialysis, perivalvular abscess and multivalve involvement are the independent risk factors for early mortality.

A retrospective cohort study of early mortality among patients with HIV/TB co-infection in Shanghai municipality

OBJECTIVES

Tuberculosis (TB) is the most common and fatal opportunistic co-infection among HIV-infected individuals. While TB-associated mortality predominantly occurs in the first 90 days after admission, such a correlation remains unclear in HIV/TB co-infected patients. Thus, we aimed to investigate the 90-day mortality and associated risk factors among HIV/TB co-infected patients in China.

METHODS

Adult patients with HIV and a newly confirmed TB diagnosis admitted to the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center between September 2009 and August 2017 were enrolled. Clinical and laboratory characteristics, key treatments and outcomes were collected retrospectively. The associations between different factors and early mortality were analysed.

RESULTS

Of the 485 laboratory-confirmed HIV/TB patients [median (range) age = 39 (19-79) years], 413 (85.15%) were male. Diagnosis was confirmed by culture, pathology and acid-fast bacilli smear alone in 362 (74.6%), 6 (1.2%) and 117 (24.1%) patients, respectively. Multiple drug-/rifampin-resistant TB was detected in 21 (5.8%) of the 367 patients with a positive culture. Rifampin or rifabutin was administered to 402 (82.9%) patients. Additionally, 66 (13.6%) and 86 (17.7%) died within 90 days and 1 year of admission, respectively. Of the 64 TB-related deaths, 59 (92.2%) occurred within 90 days of admission. In Cox regression, central nervous system (CNS) TB [odds ratio (OR) = 2.49, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.46-4.23, P < 0.001], no antiretroviral therapy (ART) within 3 months after admission (OR = 11, 95% CI: 6.4-18.9, P < 0.001), and plasma albumin level < 25 g/L (OR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.07-3.40, P = 0.021) were associated with early death.

CONCLUSIONS

Tuberculosis co-infection was prevalent and fatal in HIV-infected patients, with most deaths occurring within 90 days of admission. Early mortality was associated with CNS-TB, no ART, and serum albumin level < 25 g/L.

Growth Differentiation Factor 15: A Biomarker with High Clinical Potential in the Evaluation of Kidney Transplant Candidates

Kidney transplantation implies a significant improvement in patient survival. Nevertheless, early mortality after transplant remains high. Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) is a novel biomarker under study as a mortality predictor in multiple scenarios. The aim of this study is to assess the utility of GDF-15 to predict survival in kidney transplant candidates. For this purpose, 395 kidney transplant recipients with pretransplant stored serum samples were included. The median GDF-15 was 5331.3 (50.49-16242.3) pg/mL. After a mean of 90.6 ± 41.5 months of follow-up, 82 (20.8%) patients died. Patients with higher GDF-15 levels (high risk tertile) had a doubled risk of mortality after adjustment by clinical characteristics (p = 0.009). After adjustment by EPTS (Estimated Post Transplant Survival score) the association remained significant for medium hazards ratios (HR) 3.24 95%CI (1.2-8.8), p = 0.021 and high risk tertiles HR 4.3 95%CI (1.65-11.54), p = 0.003. GDF-15 improved the prognostic accuracy of EPTS at 1-year (ΔAUC = 0.09, p = 0.039) and 3-year mortality (ΔAUC = 0.11, p = 0.036). Our study suggests an independent association between higher GDF-15 levels and mortality after kidney transplant, adding accuracy to the EPTS score, an established risk prediction model currently used in kidney transplant candidates.