Development of LIME-NZ: a generic tool for prompt estimation of economic impacts of disease for New Zealand livestock

AIMS

To develop a simple and robust generic tool to measure the impacts of livestock diseases on New Zealand dairy, beef and sheep farms using enterprise gross margin models.

METHODS

The most recent (2018-2020) livestock production benchmarking data was extracted from industry-led economic surveys. Gross margin models were built for each enterprise type, accounting for 11 dairy farm types and 16 farm types for beef and sheep. Disease parameters, including changes in mortality, reproduction performance, milk yield, price of animals and culling rate, as well as additional expenses for veterinary intervention, were applied to the infected compartment of the herd/flock using the assumed annual within-herd disease incidence. Farm-level disease impacts were estimated as the difference in annual profit between the baseline and infected farm. The baseline gross margin models were validated against the industry data. The disease impact models were validated using a recently published study on bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD). The impact assessment tool, LIME-NZ, was developed using the statistical software R and implemented in the web-based R package Shiny. The input parameters can be varied interactively to obtain a range of disease impacts for uncertain disease parameters.

RESULTS

The baseline gross margin models demonstrated reasonable accuracy with a mean percentage error of <14% when compared with the industry reports. The estimated annual impacts of BVD were comparable to those reported in the BVD study, NZ$38.5-140.4 thousand and $0.9-32.6 thousand per farm per year for dairy and beef enterprises, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LIME-NZ can be used to rapidly obtain the likely economic impacts of diseases that are endemic, recently introduced or at increased risk of introduction in the New Zealand context. This will aid communication and decision-making among government agencies and the livestock industry, including veterinarians and livestock producers, about the management of diseases, until refined information becomes available to improve decision-making.

A high level estimation of the net economic benefits to small-scale livestock producers arising from animal health product distribution initiatives

Introduction

A fundamental challenge for charities that facilitate distribution of animal health products to small-scale livestock producers (SSPs) in low and middle income countries (LMICs) is identifying the products and market mechanisms that provide the greatest positive impact for SSPs and estimating their associated impact. This paper describes a pragmatic approach to modeling the impact of market-led product distribution initiatives based on estimating the net economic benefit of administration of animal health products.

Methods

The model estimates the economic impact of diseases at the individual animal level for poultry, small ruminants, and cattle. The economic impact of mortality and growth inhibition associated with disease are then estimated in conjunction with the losses averted or recovered by preventing or treating the disease. Economic benefit is estimated in 2014-2017 values and also adjusted to 2023 values. The flexible model structure allows for addition of new geographies, new products, and increased granularity of modeled production systems.

Results

Applied to the Global Alliance for Livestock Veterinary Medicines (GALVmed) product distribution initiatives conducted in Africa and South Asia (SA) between 2014 and 2017, the model estimates an adjusted total net economic benefit of 139.9 million USD from sales of vaccines and poultry anthelminthics in these initiatives. Within SSA, the greatest net economic benefit was realized from East Coast fever and Newcastle disease vaccines, while in SA, peste des petits ruminants and Newcastle disease vaccines had the greatest net economic benefits. This translated to an adjusted $37.97 of net economic benefit on average per SSP customer, many of whom were small poultry producers.

Discussion

While the model currently estimates impacts from mortality and growth inhibition in livestock, there is the potential to extend it to cover impacts of further initiatives, including interventions targeted at diseases that impact production of milk, eggs, and reproduction.

Comparing behavioral risk assessment strategies for quantifying biosecurity compliance to mitigate animal disease spread

Understanding the impact of human behavior on the spread of disease is critical in mitigating outbreak severity. We designed an experimental game that emulated worker decision-making in a swine facility during an outbreak. In order to combat contamination, the simulation features a line-of-separation biosecurity protocol. Participants are provided disease severity information and can choose whether or not to comply with a shower protocol. Each simulated decision carried the potential for either an economic cost or an opportunity cost, both of which affected their potential real-world earnings. Participants must weigh the risk infection vs. an opportunity cost associated with compliance. Participants then completed a multiple price list (MPL) risk assessment survey. The survey uses a context-free, paired-lottery approach in which one of two options may be selected, with varying probabilities of a high and low risk payouts. We compared game response data to MPL risk assessment. Game risk was calculated using the normalized frequency of biosecurity compliance. Three predominant strategies were identified: risk averse participants who had the highest rate of compliance; risk tolerant participants who had the lowest compliance rate; and opportunists who adapted their strategy depending on disease risk. These findings were compared to the proportion of risk averse choices observed within the MPL and were classified into 3 categories: risk averse, risk tolerant and neutral. We found weak positive correlation between risk measured in our experimental game compared to the MPL. However, risk averse classified participants in the MPL tended to comply with the biosecurity protocol more often than those classified as risk tolerant. We also found that the behavioral risk clusters and categorization via the MPL were significantly, yet weakly associated. Overall, behavioral distributions were skewed toward more risk averse choices in both the MPL and game. However, the MPL risk assessment wasn't a strong predictor for observed game behavior. This may indicate that MPL risk aversion metrics might not be sufficient to capture these simulated, situational risk aversion behaviors. Experimental games have a large potential for expanding upon traditional survey instruments by immersing participants in a complex decision mechanism, and capturing dynamic and evolving behavioral signals.

Economic benefits of implementing trading zones for Australian livestock disease outbreaks of limited duration

Objective

The objective is to estimate the economic benefits of trading zones as part of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) control measures for limited duration outbreaks.

Design

The proposed trading zones for FMD at the state level are determined using multiple tools. Eleven individual incursion scenarios in six Australian states are simulated within the Australian Animal Disease Spread epidemiological model to identify the potential geographic extent of outbreaks, as well as the number of animals infected and the duration of outbreaks. The disease spread information is used to identify the boundaries of trading zones. The outbreak duration data are combined with historical export data to estimate the share of Australian exports that could be embargoed. The market impacts of the potential export embargoes including changes in equilibrium quantities, prices and revenue are simulated within the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences' AgEmissions partial equilibrium model of Australian agriculture.

Results

Results emphasize the importance of jurisdictional and outbreak characteristics in determining trading zones. Should Australia effectively implement trading zones at the state level in response to small FMD outbreaks, the potential reductions of embargoed exports lead to a reduction in estimated producer revenue losses compared with losses under a national embargo. Producer revenue losses are reduced between $3 billion and $9 billion estimated in present value terms over 10 years at a 7% discount rate.

Conclusion

Economic analysis of the implications of trading zones identifies additional investments that would be of value to livestock industries.

Review of Vesicular Stomatitis in the United States with Focus on 2019 and 2020 Outbreaks

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is a vector-borne livestock disease caused by vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus (VSNJV) or vesicular stomatitis Indiana virus (VSIV). The disease circulates endemically in northern South America, Central America, and Mexico and only occasionally causes outbreaks in the United States. Over the past 20 years, VSNJV outbreaks in the southwestern and Rocky Mountain regions occurred with incursion years followed by virus overwintering and subsequent expansion outbreak years. Regulatory response by animal health officials is deployed to prevent spread from lesioned animals. The 2019 VS incursion was the largest in 40 years, lasting from June to December 2019 with 1144 VS-affected premises in 111 counties in eight states (Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming) and was VSIV serotype, last isolated in 1998. A subsequent expansion occurred from April to October 2020 with 326 VS-affected premises in 70 counties in eight states (Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas). The primary serotype in 2020 was VSIV, but a separate incursion of VSNJV occurred in south Texas. Summary characteristics of the outbreaks are presented along with VSV-vector sampling results and phylogenetic analysis of VSIV isolates providing evidence of virus overwintering.

Farmers' Decision Making on Livestock Trading Practices: Cowshed Culture and Behavioral Triggers Amongst New Zealand Dairy Farmers

Studies of farmers' failure to implement biosecurity practices frequently frame their behavior as a lack of intention. More recent studies have argued that farmers' behaviors should be conceptualized as emergent from farming experiences rather than a direct consequence of specific intentions. Drawing on the concepts of “cowshed” culture and the “Trigger Change Model,” we explore how farmers' livestock purchasing behavior is shaped by farms' natural and physical environments and identify what triggers behavioral change amongst farmers. Using bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in New Zealand as a case example, qualitative research was conducted with 15 New Zealand dairy producers with varying bTB experiences. We show how farmers' livestock purchasing behavior evolve with culture under a given farm environment. However, established cultures may be disrupted by various triggers such as disease outbreaks, introductions of animals with undesired characteristics, and farm relocation. While dealing with economic and socio-emotional impacts posed by triggers, farmers reorganize their culture and trading behaviors, which may involve holistic biosecurity strategies. Nevertheless, we also show that these triggers instigate only small behavioral changes for some farmers, suggesting the role of the trigger is likely to be context-dependent. Using voluntary disease control schemes such as providing disease status of source farms has attracted great interest as a driver of behavioral change. One hopes such schemes are easily integrated into existing farm practices, however, we speculate such an integration is challenging for many farmers due to path-dependency. We therefore argue that these schemes may fail to bring their intended behavioral changes without a greater understanding of how different types of triggers work in different situations. We need a paradigm shift in how we frame farmers' livestock trading practices. Otherwise, we may not able to answer our questions about farm biosecurity if we continue to approaching these questions solely from a biosecurity point of view.

Risk assessment of exotic disease incursion and spread

This Technical Report describes the activities developed in the scope of the EU‐FORA Fellowship, within the work programme of risk assessment (RA) of exotic disease incursion and spread, developed at Wageningen Bioveterinary Research (WBVR). The programme focused on the work carried out in the Generic risk assessment for introduction of animal diseases (G‐RAID) project, which brings together a number of different generic RA tools from multiple European partners. The aim of the fellowship was to gain understanding of veterinary import risk assessment by using different RA tools and to learn how different algorithms can be used to calculate disease incursion risks. G‐RAID's tools cover a wide range of RA methodologies; from purely qualitative, to semi‐quantitative and fully stochastic quantitative methods, which allowed the fellow to understand a variety of algorithms used to produce the final risk estimate. The fellowship programme provided the fellow with the chance to learn in detail about how generic RAs are performed across Europe, understanding how to deal with the uncertainty and variability involved in RAs and the potential problems of data availability and reliability. The fellow made an inventory of publicly available databases on disease occurrence and international trade that could be used for import RA and assessed their quality and usefulness for the different generic RA tools. The programme also provided the fellow the opportunity to perform several import risk assessments using the RA tools of G‐RAID. She completed a RA on African swine fever using the MINTRISK model developed by WBVR. Furthermore, she assessed the risk of foot and mouth disease introduction using the Rapid Risk Assessment Tool (RRAT) model developed by WBVR and the COMPARE model developed by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA). To this end, the fellow completed a short‐term visit to APHA, enabling her to have additional training in quantitative RA and to expand her professional network in this area.

Latitudinal diversity of biting midge species within the Obsoletus group across three habitats in Europe

Culicoides species from the Obsoletus group are important vectors of bluetongue and Schmallenberg virus. This group consists of several species that cannot easily be identified using morphological characteristics. Therefore, limited information is available about their distribution and habitat preferences. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the species composition of the Obsoletus group in three habitat types at climatically different latitudes across Europe. Traps were placed in three habitat types in three countries at different latitudes. After DNA extraction, biting midges were identified using PCR and gel electrophoresis. Extraction of DNA using Chelex proved to be a cost and time efficient method for species identification. A latitudinal effect on the relative abundance of species from the Obsoletus group was found. Species composition was unique for most country-habitat combinations. The majority of biting midges were either C. obsoletus s.s. or C. scoticus, and both species were found at all latitudes and habitats. Their wide distribution and their high abundance at livestock farms make these species likely candidates for rapid farm-to-farm transmission of pathogens throughout Europe. Our results emphasize the need to differentiate Obsoletus group species to better understand their ecology and contribution to pathogen transmission.

Comparison of the Immunogenicities and Cross-Lineage Efficacies of Live Attenuated Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus Vaccines PPRV/Nigeria/75/1 and PPRV/Sungri/96

Despite the widespread use of live attenuated PPRV vaccines, this is the first systematic analysis of the immune response elicited in small ruminants. These data will help in the establishment of the immunological determinants of protection, an important step in the development of new vaccines, especially DIVA vaccines using alternative vaccination vectors. This study is also the first controlled test of the ability of the two major vaccines used against virulent PPRV strains from all genetic lineages of the virus, showing conclusively the complete cross-protective ability of these vaccines.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a severe disease of goats and sheep that is widespread in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Several effective vaccines exist for the disease, based on attenuated strains of the virus (PPRV) that causes PPR. While the efficacy of these vaccines has been established by use in the field, the nature of the protective immune response has not been determined. In addition, while the vaccine derived from PPRV/Nigeria/75/1 (N75) is used in many countries, those developed in India have never been tested for their efficacy outside that country. We have studied the immune response in goats to vaccination with either N75 or the main Indian vaccine, which is based on isolate PPRV/India/Sungri/96 (S96). In addition, we compared the ability of these two vaccines, in parallel, to protect animals against challenge with pathogenic viruses from the four known genetic lineages of PPRV, representing viruses from different parts of Africa, as well as Asia. These studies showed that, while N75 elicited a stronger antibody response than S96, as measured by both enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and virus neutralization, S96 resulted in more pronounced cellular immune responses, as measured by virus antigen-induced proliferation and interferon gamma production. While both vaccines induced comparable numbers of PPRV-specific CD8⁺ T cells, S96 induced a higher number of CD4⁺ T cells specifically responding to virus. Despite these quantitative and qualitative differences in the immune responses following vaccination, both vaccines gave complete clinical protection against challenge with all four lineages of PPRV.

IMPORTANCE Despite the widespread use of live attenuated PPRV vaccines, this is the first systematic analysis of the immune response elicited in small ruminants. These data will help in the establishment of the immunological determinants of protection, an important step in the development of new vaccines, especially DIVA vaccines using alternative vaccination vectors. This study is also the first controlled test of the ability of the two major vaccines used against virulent PPRV strains from all genetic lineages of the virus, showing conclusively the complete cross-protective ability of these vaccines.

Modeling Dynamic Human Behavioral Changes in Animal Disease Models: Challenges and Opportunities for Addressing Bias

Over the past several decades, infectious disease modeling has become an essential tool for creating counterfactual scenarios that allow the effectiveness of different disease control policies to be evaluated prior to implementation in the real world. For livestock diseases, these models have become increasingly sophisticated as researchers have gained access to rich national livestock traceability databases, which enables inclusion of explicit spatial and temporal patterns in animal movements through network-based approaches. However, there are still many limitations in how we currently model animal disease dynamics. Critical among these is that many models make the assumption that human behaviors remain constant over time. As many studies have shown, livestock owners change their behaviors around trading, on-farm biosecurity, and disease management in response to complex factors such as increased awareness of disease risks, pressure to conform with social expectations, and the direct imposition of new national animal health regulations; all of which may significantly influence how a disease spreads within and between farms. Failing to account for these dynamics may produce a substantial layer of bias in infectious disease models, yet surprisingly little is currently known about the effects on model inferences. Here, we review the growing evidence on why these assumptions matter. We summarize the current knowledge about farmers' behavioral change in on-farm biosecurity and livestock trading practices and highlight the knowledge gaps that prohibit these behavioral changes from being incorporated into disease modeling frameworks. We suggest this knowledge gap can be filled only by more empirical longitudinal studies on farmers' behavioral change as well as theoretical modeling studies that can help to identify human behavioral changes that are important in disease transmission dynamics. Moreover, we contend it is time to shift our research approach: from modeling a single disease to modeling interactions between multiple diseases and from modeling a single farmer behavior to modeling interdependencies between multiple behaviors. In order to solve these challenges, there is a strong need for interdisciplinary collaboration across a wide range of fields including animal health, epidemiology, sociology, and animal welfare.

Diseases of Free-Ranging Snow Leopards and Primary Prey Species

Although a wide range of diseases have been reported in captive snow leopards, little is known about those affecting the species in the wild. However, the potential threat from diseases to wild snow leopards must not be underestimated as a consequence of lack of health surveillance throughout the inaccessible terrains they occupy. As a felid, the snow leopard is likely to be susceptible to most infectious agents affecting the domestic cat, and here we provide an overview of those with a risk of lethality for free-ranging snow leopards. In contrast to the health of snow leopards themselves, a great deal is known about the diseases affecting their primary prey species. We present these cases and highlight the importance of livestock as the main source of disease spillover to natural prey species. Further studies are required to understand the impact of infectious agents on intra- and interspecific population dynamics of snow leopards and associated prey.

Environments and trypanosomiasis risks for early herders in the later Holocene of the Lake Victoria basin, Kenya

Specialized pastoralism developed ∼3 kya among Pastoral Neolithic Elmenteitan herders in eastern Africa. During this time, a mosaic of hunters and herders using diverse economic strategies flourished in southern Kenya. It has been argued that the risk for trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), carried by tsetse flies in bushy environments, had a significant influence on pastoral diversification and migration out of eastern Africa toward southern Africa ∼2 kya. Elmenteitan levels at Gogo Falls (ca. 1.9-1.6 kya) preserve a unique faunal record, including wild mammalian herbivores, domestic cattle and caprines, fish, and birds. It has been suggested that a bushy/woodland habitat that harbored tsetse fly constrained production of domestic herds and resulted in subsistence diversification. Stable isotope analysis of herbivore tooth enamel (n = 86) from this site reveals, instead, extensive C4 grazing by both domesticates and the majority of wild herbivores. Integrated with other ecological proxies (pollen and leaf wax biomarkers), these data imply an abundance of C4 grasses in the Lake Victoria basin at this time, and thus little risk for tsetse-related barriers to specialized pastoralism. These data provide empirical evidence for the existence of a grassy corridor through which small groups of herders could have passed to reach southern Africa.

Elimination of foot-and-mouth disease in South America: lessons and challenges

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly transmissible and economically devastating disease of cloven-hoofed livestock. Although vaccines are available and have been instrumental in eliminating the disease from most of the South American animal population, viral circulation still persists in some countries and areas, posing a threat to the advances of the last 60 years by the official veterinary services with considerable support of the livestock sectors. The importance of the disease for the social and economic development of the American continent led to the establishment in 1951 of the Pan American Centre for Foot-and-Mouth Disease (PANAFTOSA), which has been providing technical cooperation to countries for the elimination of the disease. The first FMD national elimination programmes were established in South America around the 1960s and 1970s. To advance the regional elimination efforts in the 1980s, countries agreed on a Plan of Action 1988-2009 of the Hemispheric Program for the Eradication of Foot-and-Mouth Disease. The Plan of Action 1988-2009 did not reach the goal of elimination from the continent; and a new Plan of Action 2011-2020 was developed in 2010 based on the experience acquired by the countries and PANAFTOSA during the past 60 years. This plan is now being implemented; several challenges are still to be overcome to ensure the elimination of FMD from the Americas by 2020, however, the goal is achievable.

Interventions for avian influenza A (H5N1) risk management in live bird market networks

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 is endemic in Asia, with live bird trade as a major disease transmission pathway. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in northern Vietnam to investigate the structure of the live bird market (LBM) contact network and the implications for virus spread. Based on the movements of traders between LBMs, weighted and directed networks were constructed and used for social network analysis and individual-based modeling. Most LBMs were connected to one another, suggesting that the LBM network may support large-scale disease spread. Because of cross-border trade, it also may promote transboundary virus circulation. However, opportunities for disease control do exist. The implementation of thorough, daily disinfection of the market environment as well as of traders' vehicles and equipment in only a small number of hubs can disconnect the network dramatically, preventing disease spread. These targeted interventions would be an effective alternative to the current policy of a complete ban of LBMs in some areas. Some LBMs that have been banned still are very active, and they likely have a substantial impact on disease dynamics, exhibiting the highest levels of susceptibility and infectiousness. The number of trader visits to markets, information that can be collected quickly and easily, may be used to identify LBMs suitable for implementing interventions. This would not require prior knowledge of the force of infection, for which laboratory-confirmed surveillance would be necessary. These findings are of particular relevance for policy development in resource-scarce settings.

Models of foot-and-mouth disease

During the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in the UK, three very different models were used in an attempt to predict the disease dynamics and inform control measures. This was one of the first times that models had been used during an epidemic to support the decision-making process. It is probable that models will play a pivotal role in any future livestock epidemics, and it is therefore important that decision makers, veterinarians and farmers understand the uses and limitations of models. This review describes the utility of models in general before focusing on the three foot-and-mouth disease models used in 2001. Finally, the future of modelling is discussed, analysing the advances needed if models are to be successfully applied during any subsequent epidemics.