Impact of HER2-low expression on the efficacy of endocrine therapy with or without CDK4/6 inhibitor in HR-positive/HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer: A prospective study

BACKGROUND

CDK4/6 inhibitors in combination with traditional endocrine therapy (ET) have become the recommended first-line therapy for HR-positive/HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer (MBC). The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the relationship between HER2-low expression and clinical outcomes in HR-positive/HER2-negative MBC patients receiving ET with or without CDK4/6 inhibitors.

METHODS

Between April 2016 and November 2019, 233 women with HR-positive/HER2-negative MBC who received ET with or without CDK4/6 inhibitors were enrolled into the study. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Statistical analysis included descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier curves, and Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

HER2-low and HER2-zero subgroups in the CDK4/6 inhibitor plus ET cohort showed no significant difference in the median PFS (10.9 vs. 8.0 months; hazard ratio: 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.64-1. 30; p = 0.65), while HER2-low subgroup showed a significantly shorter median PFS compared to the HER2-zero subgroup in the ET alone cohort (5.6 vs. 17.0 months; hazard ratio: 2.82; 95% CI: 1.34-5.93; p = 0.0044). Moreover, the objective response rate was significantly lower in the HER2-low subgroup than the HER2-zero subgroup in the ET alone cohort (10.5% vs. 40.0%, p = 0.047). Lastly, no significant difference was observed in the overall survival between the HER2-low and HER2-zero subgroups in both cohorts.

CONCLUSION

This study suggested that HER2-low expression may predict the efficacy of ET but not that of CDK4/6 inhibitor plus ET in HR-positive/HER2-negative MBC patients. The results of this study highlight the importance of integrating HER2 status in tailoring personalized treatment strategies for HR-positive MBC.

Causal Association Between Subtypes of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases

BACKGROUND

Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS), experienced in 10% to 20% of the population, has been associated with cardiovascular disease and death. However, the condition is heterogeneous and is prevalent in individuals having short and long sleep duration. We sought to clarify the relationship between sleep duration subtypes of EDS with cardiovascular outcomes, accounting for these subtypes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We defined 3 sleep duration subtypes of excessive daytime sleepiness: normal (6-9 hours), short (<6 hours), and long (>9 hours), and compared these with a nonsleepy, normal-sleep-duration reference group. We analyzed their associations with incident myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke using medical records of 355 901 UK Biobank participants and performed 2-sample Mendelian randomization for each outcome. Compared with healthy sleep, long-sleep EDS was associated with an 83% increased rate of MI (hazard ratio, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.21-2.77]) during 8.2-year median follow-up, adjusting for multiple health and sociodemographic factors. Mendelian randomization analysis provided supporting evidence of a causal role for a genetic long-sleep EDS subtype in MI (inverse-variance weighted β=1.995, P=0.001). In contrast, we did not find evidence that other subtypes of EDS were associated with incident MI or any associations with stroke (P>0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests the previous evidence linking EDS with increased cardiovascular disease risk may be primarily driven by the effect of its long-sleep subtype on higher risk of MI. Underlying mechanisms remain to be investigated but may involve sleep irregularity and circadian disruption, suggesting a need for novel interventions in this population.

Cholecystectomy is associated with a higher risk of irritable bowel syndrome in the UK Biobank: a prospective cohort study

Background: Recent studies have shown that bile acids are essential in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) pathology, and cholecystectomy has direct effects on bile acid metabolism. However, whether cholecystectomy increases the risk of IBS remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between cholecystectomy and IBS risk in the UK Biobank (UKB). Methods: This study is a prospective analysis of 413,472 participants who were free of IBS, inflammatory bowel disease, cancer, or common benign digestive tract diseases. We identified incidents of IBS through self-reporting or links to primary healthcare and hospitalization data. We evaluated hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, health behaviours, comorbidities, and medications. Results: During a median follow-up period of 12.7 years, we observed 15,503 new cases of IBS. Participants with a history of cholecystectomy had a 46% higher risk of IBS than those without (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.32-1.60), and further subtype analysis showed that the risk of IBS with diarrhoea was significantly higher than the risk of IBS without diarrhoea (HR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.30-2.25 vs. HR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.28-1.58). The overall covariate-adjusted HRs for IBS were similar between the group with both cholecystectomy and gallstones (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.32-1.58) and the group with cholecystectomy without gallstones (HR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.36-1.67) when the group without both cholecystectomy and gallstones was used as a reference. The overall covariate-adjusted HR was not significantly different in the group without cholecystectomy with gallstones (HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 0.95-1.47). The positive association of cholecystectomy with IBS risk did not change when stratifying the data based on age, sex, BMI, smoking, alcohol consumption, healthy diet, quality sleep, physical activity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, mental illness, NSAID intake, or acid inhibitor intake. Sensitivity analyses, including propensity score matching analysis and lagging the exposure for two or four years, indicated that the effects were robust. Conclusion: Cholecystectomy was associated with a higher risk of IBS, especially IBS with diarrhoea. Additional prospective randomized controlled and experimental studies are warranted to further validate the association and to explore the relevant biological mechanisms.

Development, Deployment, and Implementation of a Machine Learning Surgical Case Length Prediction Model and Prospective Evaluation

OBJECTIVE

To implement a machine learning model using only the restricted data available at case creation time to predict surgical case length for multiple services at different locations.

BACKGROUND

The operating room is one of the most expensive resources in a health system, estimated to cost $22 to $133 per minute and generate about 40% of hospital revenue. Accurate prediction of surgical case length is necessary for efficient scheduling and cost-effective utilization of the operating room and other resources.

METHODS

We introduced a similarity cascade to capture the complexity of cases and surgeon influence on the case length and incorporated that into a gradient-boosting machine learning model. The model loss function was customized to improve the balance between over- and under-prediction of the case length. A production pipeline was created to seamlessly deploy and implement the model across our institution.

RESULTS

The prospective analysis showed that the model output was gradually adopted by the schedulers and outperformed the scheduler-predicted case length from August to December 2022. In 33,815 surgical cases across outpatient and inpatient platforms, the operational implementation predicted 11.2% fewer underpredicted cases and 5.9% more cases within 20% of the actual case length compared with the schedulers and only overpredicted 5.3% more. The model assisted schedulers to predict 3.4% more cases within 20% of the actual case length and 4.3% fewer underpredicted cases.

CONCLUSIONS

We created a unique framework that is being leveraged every day to predict surgical case length more accurately at case posting time and could be potentially utilized to deploy future machine learning models.

Short-term recurrence rate of male urethral stricture and its predictors after treatment with optical internal urethrotomy: Prospective Cohort Study at a tertiary center in Ethiopia

Abstract

Background

Although optical internal urethrotomy is popular among the urologists due to its simplicity and safety, urethroplasty is considered the gold standard treatment for urethral strictures. This study aims to determine the 1-year recurrence rate of urethral strictures after optical urethrotomy and identify predictors of recurrence in a tertiary center in Ethiopia.

Methods

A prospective observational cohort study was conducted on 80 male patients who underwent optical urethrotomy from November 2019 to August 2020 in a tertiary center in Ethiopia. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between dependent and independent variables, with a P-value of <0.05 considered statistically significant.

Results

The mean and median age (±SD) of patients at the time of the procedure were 54.76 (±14.74) and 58 years with a range [20-78], respectively. Urethral discharge was the most common etiology identified in 39 (48.75%) of patients. Eleven (13.75%) patients had no identifiable etiology for their urethral stricture disease.The majority of patients presented with at least one voiding lower urinary tract symptoms.Sixty-eight (85%) patients out of the total had a single stricture and 12 (15%) had multiple strictures. The location of the stricture was in the bulbar urethra on cystourethrography in 83% of the patients. The 1-year recurrence rate of urethral stricture after optical urethrotomy was 35% in our study.The number of strictures and the presence of hypertension were independent predictors of recurrence of urethral stricture within 1-year after treatment with optical urethrotomy (AOR=15.35, 95% CI: 2.92-80.61, P=0.00; AOR=19.47, 95% CI: 2.11-178.98, P=0.01, respectively).

Conclusions

Our study identified that multiple strictures, and the presence of hypertension are associated with an increased recurrence rate in the first postoperative year.

Association between inflammatory potential of diet and periodontitis disease risks: Results from a Korean population-based cohort study

AIM

To examine the association between a pro-inflammatory diet, estimated using the energy-adjusted dietary inflammatory index (E-DII), and the risk of periodontitis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Study subjects from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study Health Examinee (KoGES_HEXA) cohort were included for cross-sectional analysis (n = 168,378) using multivariate logistic regression and prospective analysis (n = 160,397) using Cox proportional hazard models respectively. DII and E-DII scores were calculated based on the intake reported on a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (SQ-FFQ).

RESULTS

Cox proportional hazard models revealed a significantly increased risk of incident periodontitis in individuals consuming high E-DII (more pro-inflammatory) diets in the total population (HRquartile4vs1  = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.13-1.48; ptrend <.001) and in both men (HRquartile4vs1  = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.07-1.73; ptrend  = 0.02) and women (HRquartile4vs1  = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50; ptrend  = .002). The association remained significant even after excluding cases diagnosed early in the follow-up. In the cross-sectional analysis, a significant association was observed between the E-DII score and the prevalence of periodontitis among all study subjects (ORquartile4vs1  = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.03-1.34; ptrend  = 0.01) and men (ORquartile4vs1  = 1.28; 95%CI: 1.01-1.63; ptrend <.001); however, the association did not reach statistical significance in women (ORquartile4vs1  = 1.13; 95% CI: 0.96-1.33; ptrend <.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from the current study support the hypothesis that diets with high pro-inflammatory potential increase the risk of periodontitis.

Prospective evaluation of data-driven models to predict daily risk of Clostridioides difficile infection at 2 large academic health centers

Many data-driven patient risk stratification models have not been evaluated prospectively. We performed and compared the prospective and retrospective evaluations of 2 Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) risk-prediction models at 2 large academic health centers, and we discuss the models' robustness to data-set shifts.

Changes in high-risk sexual behavior, HIV and other STI testing, and PrEP use during the COVID-19 pandemic in a longitudinal cohort of adolescent men who have sex with men 13 to 18 years old in the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted sexual health services among those most vulnerable to HIV acquisition, such as adolescent men who have sex with men (AMSM). We sought to characterize the changes in sexual-risk behaviors, HIV and other STI testing, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use among a longitudinal cohort of AMSM aged 13 to 18 years before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We observed a significant decline in HIV testing and a marginal decrease in other STI testing since the pandemic began in March 2020. Outreach efforts and innovative remote delivery of sexual health services are needed to support access to healthcare services among AMSM as the pandemic persists.

Circulating insulin-like growth factors and risks of overall, aggressive and early-onset prostate cancer: a collaborative analysis of 20 prospective studies and Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies had limited power to assess the associations of circulating insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) with clinically relevant prostate cancer as a primary endpoint, and the association of genetically predicted IGF-I with aggressive prostate cancer is not known. We aimed to investigate the associations of IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 concentrations with overall, aggressive and early-onset prostate cancer.

METHODS

Prospective analysis of biomarkers using the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group dataset (up to 20 studies, 17 009 prostate cancer cases, including 2332 aggressive cases). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression. For IGF-I, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was undertaken using instruments identified using UK Biobank (158 444 men) and outcome data from PRACTICAL (up to 85 554 cases, including 15 167 aggressive cases). Additionally, we used colocalization to rule out confounding by linkage disequilibrium.

RESULTS

In observational analyses, IGF-I was positively associated with risks of overall (OR per 1 SD = 1.09: 95% CI 1.07, 1.11), aggressive (1.09: 1.03, 1.16) and possibly early-onset disease (1.11: 1.00, 1.24); associations were similar in MR analyses (OR per 1 SD = 1.07: 1.00, 1.15; 1.10: 1.01, 1.20; and 1.13; 0.98, 1.30, respectively). Colocalization also indicated a shared signal for IGF-I and prostate cancer (PP4: 99%). Men with higher IGF-II (1.06: 1.02, 1.11) and IGFBP-3 (1.08: 1.04, 1.11) had higher risks of overall prostate cancer, whereas higher IGFBP-1 was associated with a lower risk (0.95: 0.91, 0.99); these associations were attenuated following adjustment for IGF-I.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the role of IGF-I in the development of prostate cancer, including for aggressive disease.

The role of smoking and alcohol in mediating the effect of gastroesophageal reflux disease on lung cancer: A Mendelian randomization study

Observational studies have suggested a positive association between gastroesophageal reflux disease and lung cancer, but due to the existence of confounders, it remains undetermined whether gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) has a causal association with lung cancer. Therefore, Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were applied to investigate the relationship between the two conditions. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis was utilized with summary genetic data from the European Bioinformatics Institute (602,604 individuals) and International Lung Cancer Consortium, which provides information on lung cancer and its histological subgroups. Furthermore, we used two-step Mendelian randomization and multivariable Mendelian randomization to estimate whether smoking initiation (311,629 cases and 321,173 controls) and alcohol intake frequency (n = 462,346) mediate any effect of gastroesophageal reflux disease on lung cancer risk. The Mendelian randomization analyses indicated that gastroesophageal reflux disease was associated with and significantly increased the risk of lung cancer (OR_IVW = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.18-1.54; p = 1.36 × 10^-5). Smoking initiation and alcohol intake frequency mediated 35% and 3% of the total effect of gastroesophageal reflux disease on lung cancer, respectively. The combined effect of these two factors accounted for 60% of the total effect. In conclusion, gastroesophageal reflux disease is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer, and interventions to reduce smoking and alcohol intake may reduce the incidence of lung cancer.

Longitudinal mediation by perceived burden of the pathway from thwarted belonging to suicidal ideation

INTRODUCTION

Whereas the interpersonal theory of suicide entails the assumption that thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness are equally important, mutually moderating, proximal causes of active ideation, evidence suggests these may not be co-moderating processes. We tested an alternative perspective, hypothesizing that burden mediates the longitudinal relationship of thwarted belonging with active ideation.

METHODS

A 6-week, four-wave prospective online survey was completed by 298 undergraduates. We tested cross-sectional and cross-lagged panel models (CLPM, with and without random effects) with belonging, burden, and ideation at 2-week lags, and post hoc models with burden as a concurrent mediator of ideation.

RESULTS

Approximately 28% of undergraduates reported active ideation at baseline. Cross-sectionally, thwarted belonging had no direct influence on ideation but indirectly affected ideation via burden. This result was not confirmed in the 2-week CLPM analyses. In post hoc analyses, we found belonging operated indirectly via later burden to influence contemporaneous ideation.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest thwarted belonging influences active ideation indirectly via perceived burden. The effect of burden as a mediator appears to depend on its temporal proximity to ideation. Future research should delimit the period during which perceived burden is an active mediator, accommodate dual-process approaches, and explore other mediation alternatives to co-moderation.

Prospective analyses of testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin with the risk of 19 types of cancer in men and postmenopausal women in UK Biobank

We investigated the associations of estimated free and total circulating testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) with cancer risk in men and postmenopausal women, using a pan-cancer approach, including 19 cancers in UK Biobank. Risk was estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression in up to 182 608 men and 122 112 postmenopausal women who were cancer-free at baseline. Participants diagnosed with cancer within 2 years of baseline were excluded. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were corrected for regression dilution bias using repeat measurements. We accounted for multiple testing using the false discovery rate. In men, higher free testosterone was associated with higher risks of melanoma and prostate cancer (HR per 50 pmol/L increase = 1.35, 95% CI 1.14-1.61 and 1.10, 1.04-1.18, respectively). Higher total testosterone was associated with an elevated risk of liver cancer (HR per 5 nmol/L = 2.45, 1.56-3.84), and higher SHBG was associated with a higher risk of liver cancer (HR per 10 nmol/L = 1.56, 1.31-1.87) and a lower risk of prostate cancer (0.93, 0.91-0.96); the associations with liver cancer were partially attenuated after excluding men diagnosed within 4.7 years from baseline. In postmenopausal women, free and total testosterone and SHBG were associated with risks of endometrial (HR per 10 pmol/L = 1.59, 1.32-1.90; HR per 0.5 nmol/L = 1.34, 1.18-1.52 and HR per 25 nmol/L = 0.78, 0.67-0.91, respectively) and breast cancer (1.32, 1.22-1.43; 1.24, 1.17-1.31 and 0.88, 0.83-0.94, respectively). We report a novel association of free testosterone with malignant melanoma in men, and confirm known associations between testosterone and risks for prostate, breast and endometrial cancers. The association with liver cancer in men may be attributable to reverse causation.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease: A risk factor for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort

BACKGROUND

Prior studies have suggested that gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) may be associated with risk of squamous cancers of the larynx and esophagus; however, most of these studies have had methodological limitations or insufficient control for potential confounders.

METHODS

We prospectively examined the association between GERD and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EADC), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) in 490,605 participants of the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort who were 50-71 years of age at baseline. Exposure to risk factors were obtained from the baseline questionnaire. GERD diagnosis was extracted among eligible participants via linkage to Medicare diagnoses codes and then multiply imputed for non-Medicare-eligible participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of GERD were computed using Cox regression.

RESULTS

From 1995 to 2011, we accrued 931 cases of EADC, 876 cases of LSCC, and 301 cases of ESCC in this cohort and estimated multivariable-adjusted HRs of 2.23 (95% CI, 1.72-2.90), 1.91 (95% CI, 1.24-2.94), and 1.99 (95% CI, 1.39-2.84) for EADC, LSCC, and ESCC, respectively. The associations were independent of sex, smoking status, alcohol intake, and follow-up time periods. We estimated that among the general population in the United States, 22.04% of people aged 50-71 years suffered from GERD. Using risk factor distributions for the United States from national survey data, 16.92% of LSCC cases and 17.32% of ESCC cases among individuals aged 50-71 years were estimated to be associated with GERD.

CONCLUSION

GERD is a common gastrointestinal disorder, but future prospective studies are needed to replicate our findings. If replicated, they may inform clinical surveillance of GERD patients and suggest new avenues for prevention of these malignancies.

Circulating insulin-like growth factor-I, total and free testosterone concentrations and prostate cancer risk in 200 000 men in UK Biobank

Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and testosterone have been implicated in prostate cancer aetiology. Using data from a large prospective full-cohort with standardised assays and repeat blood measurements, and genetic data from an international consortium, we investigated the associations of circulating IGF-I, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), and total and calculated free testosterone concentrations with prostate cancer incidence and mortality. For prospective analyses, risk was estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression in 199 698 male UK Biobank participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) were corrected for regression dilution bias using repeat hormone measurements from a subsample. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis of IGF-I and risk used genetic instruments identified from UK Biobank men and genetic outcome data from the PRACTICAL consortium (79 148 cases and 61 106 controls). We used cis- and all (cis and trans) SNP MR approaches. A total of 5402 men were diagnosed with and 295 died from prostate cancer (mean follow-up 6.9 years). Higher circulating IGF-I was associated with elevated prostate cancer diagnosis (HR per 5 nmol/L increment = 1.09, 95% CI 1.05-1.12) and mortality (HR per 5 nmol/L increment = 1.15, 1.02-1.29). MR analyses also supported the role of IGF-I in prostate cancer diagnosis (cis-MR odds ratio per 5 nmol/L increment = 1.34, 1.07-1.68). In observational analyses, higher free testosterone was associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer (HR per 50 pmol/L increment = 1.10, 1.05-1.15). Higher SHBG was associated with a lower risk (HR per 10 nmol/L increment = 0.95, 0.94-0.97), neither was associated with prostate cancer mortality. Total testosterone was not associated with prostate cancer. These findings implicate IGF-I and free testosterone in prostate cancer development and/or progression.

Associations of Serum Fatty Acid Proportions with Obesity, Insulin Resistance, Blood Pressure, and Fatty Liver: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

BACKGROUND

The links between fatty acids (FAs) and cardiometabolic outcomes are topics of debate.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to investigate the associations between serum standardized FA percentages and cardiometabolic outcomes.

METHODS

We used cross-sectional (n = 2187-2200 subjects, age 24-39 y, women 54%) and 10-year prospective data (n = 975-1414 subjects) from the Young Finns Study. Outcomes included prevalent and incident obesity, insulin resistance (HOMA-IR index in the upper quintile), elevated blood pressure (BP; taking medication, or diastolic or systolic BP in the upper quintile), and incident nonalcoholic fatty liver. Logistic regression models were used to calculate ORs per SD increase in fatty acids (FAs). The models were adjusted for age and sex, and additionally for other potential confounders.

RESULTS

Several cross-sectional findings were also statistically significant in prospective models (Bonferroni corrected P < 0.003). In fully-adjusted models for obesity, these consisted of SFAs (OR: 1.28) and MUFAs (OR: 1.38), including palmitoleic (OR: 1.39) and oleic acids (OR: 1.37). Furthermore, PUFAs (OR: 0.70), including linoleic (OR: 0.67) and docosahexaenoic acids (OR: 0.75), were inversely related with obesity, whereas γ-linolenic acid (OR: 1.32) was positively associated with obesity. In age- and sex-adjusted models for insulin resistance, MUFAs (OR: 1.26) and oleic acid (OR: 1.25) were positively, and PUFAs (OR: 0.81), particularly linoleic acid (OR: 0.78), were inversely associated with HOMA-IR. Similarly with elevated BP, palmitic acid (OR: 1.22), MUFAs (OR: 1.28), and oleic acid (OR: 1.28) were positively associated with elevated BP, whereas PUFAs (OR: 0.77), n-6 (omega-6) PUFAs (OR: 0.79), and linoleic acid (OR: 0.77) were inversely associated. In fully-adjusted models for incident fatty liver, the most consistent predictors were high palmitic (OR: 1.61) and low linoleic acid (OR: 0.63) percentages. The n-6/n-3 (omega-3) PUFA ratio was not linked with any adverse outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

High serum percentages of total SFAs and MUFAs and low PUFAs, but also several specific FAs, predict future unfavorable cardiometabolic outcomes in Finnish adults.

Mediterranean Diet and Risk of Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease in the EPIC-Spain Dementia Cohort Study

The Mediterranean diet (MD) has shown to reduce the occurrence of several chronic diseases. To evaluate its potential protective role on dementia incidence we studied 16,160 healthy participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain Dementia Cohort study recruited between 1992-1996 and followed up for a mean (±SD) of 21.6 (±3.4) years. A total of 459 incident cases of dementia were ascertained through expert revision of medical records. Data on habitual diet was collected through a validated diet history method to assess adherence to the relative Mediterranean Diet (rMED) score. Hazard ratios (HR) of dementia by rMED levels (low, medium and high adherence levels: ≤6, 7-10 and ≥11 points, respectively) were estimated using multivariable Cox models, whereas time-dependent effects were evaluated using flexible parametric Royston-Parmar (RP) models. Results of the fully adjusted model showed that high versus low adherence to the categorical rMED score was associated with a 20% (HR = 0.80, 95%CI: 0.60-1.06) lower risk of dementia overall and HR of dementia was 8% (HR = 0.92, 0.85-0.99, p = 0.021) lower for each 2-point increment of the continuous rMED score. By sub-types, a favorable association was also found in women for non-AD (HR per 2-points = 0.74, 95%CI: 0.62-0.89), while not statistically significant in men for AD (HR per 2-points = 0.88, 0.76-1.01). The association was stronger in participants with lower education. In conclusion, in this large prospective cohort study MD was inversely associated with dementia incidence after accounting for major cardiovascular risk factors. The results differed by dementia sub-type, sex, and education but there was no significant evidence of effect modification.

An overview and critique of the use of cumulative sum methods with surgical learning curve data

Cumulative sum (CUSUM) plots and methods have wide-ranging applications in healthcare. We review and discuss some issues related to the analysis of surgical learning curve (LC) data with a focus on three types of CUSUM statistical approaches. The underlying assumptions, benefits, and weaknesses of each approach are given. Our primary conclusion is that two types of CUSUM methods are useful in providing visual aids, but are subject to overinterpretation due to the lack of well-defined decision rules and performance metrics. The third type is based on plotting the CUSUM of the differences between observations and their average value. We show that this commonly applied retrospective method is frequently interpreted incorrectly and is thus unhelpful in the LC application. Curve-fitting methods are more suitable for meeting many of the goals associated with the study of surgical LCs.

Prospective Analysis of Health-Related Quality of Life in Older Adults With Cancer

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to evaluate health-related quality of life (HRQoL) changes at 6 to 12 months after cancer diagnosis and to assess the impact of age in older adults with cancer.

METHODS

A cohort study using patients ≥60 years old diagnosed with cancer. Health-related quality of life scores were calculated according to the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer questionnaire. Student's t tests for paired samples and a binomial logistic regression were performed.

RESULTS

The study included 241 patients. At diagnosis, the affected HRQoL functions were physical and emotional functions, financial difficulties, pain, and insomnia. At follow-up, cognitive function (P < .001) and dyspnea (P = .004) worsened, while emotional function improved (P = .003).

DISCUSSION

At the 6 to 12 months of follow-up, older adult cancer patients showed worsening cognitive function and dyspnea and improved emotional function. These HRQoL changes were not associated with age.

Hematologic Markers and Prostate Cancer Risk: A Prospective Analysis in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Risk factors for prostate cancer are not well understood. Red blood cell, platelet, and white blood cell indices may be markers of a range of exposures that might be related to prostate cancer risk. Therefore, we examined the associations of hematologic parameters with prostate cancer risk.

METHODS

Complete blood count data from 209,686 male UK Biobank participants who were free from cancer at study baseline were analyzed. Participants were followed up via data linkage. After a mean follow-up of 6.8 years, 5,723 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 323 men died from prostate cancer. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer incidence and mortality by hematologic parameters, and corrected for regression dilution bias.

RESULTS

Higher red blood cell (HR per 1 SD increase = 1.09, 95% CI, 1.05-1.13) and platelet counts (HR = 1.07, 1.04-1.11) were associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer. Higher mean corpuscular volume (HR = 0.90, 0.87-0.93), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (HR = 0.90, 0.87-0.93), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (HR = 0.87, 0.77-0.97), and mean sphered cell volume (HR = 0.91, 0.87-0.94) were associated with a lower prostate cancer risk. Higher white blood cell (HR = 1.14, 1.05-1.24) and neutrophil count (HR = 1.27, 1.09-1.48) were associated with prostate cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

These associations of blood indices of prostate cancer risk and mortality may implicate shared common causes, including testosterone, nutrition, and inflammation/infection among several others in prostate cancer development and/or progression.

IMPACT

These associations provide insights into prostate cancer development and progression.

Patterns, quality and appropriateness of surgical referrals in Malawi

OBJECTIVES

Reliable referral systems are essential to the functionality and efficiency of the wider health care system in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), particularly in surgery as the disease burden is growing while resources remain constrained and unevenly distributed. Yet, this is a critically under-researched area. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of surgical referral systems in a LMIC, Malawi, with a view to shedding light on this important aspect of public health and share lessons learned.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective analysis of all inter-hospital referrals received at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH) in 2014-2015. A subsample of 255 referrals was assessed by three independent surgical experts against necessity and quality of the transfer to identify any inefficiencies in the referral process.

RESULTS

1317 patients were referred to QECH during the study period (average 53/month), 80% sent by government district hospitals. One in 3 cases were referred unnecessarily, many of which could have been managed locally. In 82% of cases, there was no communication with QECH prior to referral, 41% had incorrect/incomplete diagnosis by the referring clinicians and 39% of referrals were not timely.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide the first evidence on the state of the surgical referral system in Malawi and contribute to building the body of knowledge necessary to inform system improvements. Responses should include reducing inappropriate use of specialist care and ensuring better care pathways for surgical patients, especially in rural areas, where access to specialist expertise is not available at present.

Polypharmacy and Kidney Function in Community-Dwelling Adults Age 60 Years and Older: A Prospective Observational Study

OBJECTIVES

Information on the impact of polypharmacy on kidney function in older adults is limited. We prospectively investigated the association between intake of total number of drugs or nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and kidney function.

DESIGN

Our study is a prospective observational analysis of the 2-year Zurich Multiple Endpoint Vitamin D Trial in Knee Osteoarthritis Patients.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Of the 273 participants of the original trial, 270 participants (mean age 70.3 ± 6.4 years, 53% women) were included in this observational analysis.

METHODS

The associations between (1) total number of drugs (or NSAIDs) at baseline or (2) cumulative number of drugs (or NASAIDs) repeatedly measured over 24 months and kidney function repeatedly measured over 24 months as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were investigated using multivariable-adjusted repeated-measures analysis.

RESULTS

Per drug at baseline, kidney function decreased by 0.64 mL/min/1.73 m² eGFR (Beta = -0.64; 95% CI -1.19 to -0.08; P = .024) over 24 months. With every additional drug taken cumulatively over 24 months, kidney function decreased by 0.39 mL/min/1.73 m² eGFR (Beta = -0.39; 95% CI -0.63 to -0.15; P = .002). In a high-risk subgroup, per NSAID taken cumulatively over 24 months, kidney function declined by 1.21 mL/min/1.73 m² eGFR (Beta = -1.21; 95% CI -2.35 to -0.07; P = .021).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

For every additional drug prescribed among older adults, our study supports an independent and immediate harmful impact on kidney function. This negative impact seems to be about 3 times greater for NSAIDs compared with an additional average drug.

Alcohol consumption and risk of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma and gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma: A 16-year prospective analysis from the NIH-AARP diet and health cohort

The role of alcoholic beverages in the etiology of gastric cancer is unclear. Recent summaries showed a positive association between higher alcohol intake and gastric cancer risk, but the magnitude of association is small, there is moderate heterogeneity among studies, and most cases were from Asian populations. We prospectively investigated the associations of alcohol consumption with gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) and gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA) in 490,605 adults, aged 50-71 years at baseline who participated in the NIH-AARP diet and health study. Alcohol consumption in the past year was assessed at baseline by questionnaire and defined as total grams of ethanol intake per day or as a categorical variable: nondrinker, up to or including one drink per day, one to three drinks per day and greater than three drinks per day. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between alcohol intake and risk of gastric adenocarcinomas. Through 2011, 662 incident cases of GCA and 713 of GNCA occurred. We found no association between higher alcohol consumption and GCA or GNCA, when examined as total alcoholic beverage intake or individual beverage types of beer, wine and liquor. Furthermore, we observed no association by stratum of sex, ethnic group, educational level or smoking status. We did, however, observe lower risk of GNCA among participants who drank up to one drink per day (HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97) compared to nondrinkers. In conclusion, alcohol consumption was not associated with increased risk of GCA or GNCA in this large U.S. cohort.

[Spino-pelvic sagittal parameters in an asymptomatic population in Argentina]

OBJECTIVES

To assess and describe spinal and pelvic sagittal parameters in a series of 100 Argentinian volunteers.

METHODS

Lateral full-spine X-rays were obtained prospectively from 100 volunteers (30 males and 70 females), average age 34.1 years. All the volunteers were asymptomatic at the time of the study. Full-length left lateral spine radiographs (36'' cassette) were made using Kodak Elite CR equipment. The authors made determinations for the digital X-rays using Surgimap^®, version 2.2.9.9.2. The following parameters were recorded: C7 SVA, C2-C7 CL, TK, LL, TPA, T1SPi, PI, PT, SS, L4-S1 angle, L1-L4 angle, PI-LL mismatch and CTPA. The data were analyzed using Medcalc 11.2 software. Descriptive statistics were calculated for each parameter according to its own measure score and distribution. Estimates of 95% reference and confidence intervals were calculated for each parameter. P = 0.05 was set as the threshold for statistical significance. Volunteers were classified using the Roussouly morphometric classification system.

RESULTS

Respective means for the above-listed variables were: CL -10.04, TK 30.14, T1SPi -6.5, L1-L4 -12.45, L4-S1 -46.16, CTPA 2.5, TPA 4.65, PT 11.22, PI 48.04, LL -59. 10, PI-LL -11.11, C7 SVA mm -23.68. Plus/minus two standard deviations (SD) for the variables were: CL (-33.26, 13.12); TK (17.15, 43.30); T1SPi (-11.78, -1.25), L1-L4 (-25.55, 0.25), L4-S1 (-64.44, -27.55), CTPA (0.33, 4.80), TPA (-8.64, 18.22), PT (-1.99, 24.75), PI (25.23, 71.44), LL (-78.74, -39.89), PI-LL (-29.10, 7.04), and C7 SVA mm (-79.45, 32.08).

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective series of 100 adult volunteers, normal values for spinal and pelvic sagittal parameters were determined in Argentinian adults.

Prospective analysis of infectious disease surveillance data using syndromic information

In this paper, we describe a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model for the prospective analysis of data for infectious diseases. The proposed model consists of two components. The first component describes the behavior of disease during nonepidemic periods and the second component represents the increase in disease counts due to the presence of an epidemic. A novelty of our model formulation is that the parameters describing the spread of epidemics are allowed to vary in both space and time. We also show how syndromic information can be incorporated into the model to provide a better description of the data and more accurate one-step-ahead forecasts. These real-time forecasts can be used to identify high-risk areas for outbreaks and, consequently, to develop efficient targeted surveillance. We apply the methodology to weekly emergency room discharges for acute bronchitis in South Carolina.

Semiparametric odds ratio model for case-control and matched case-control designs

We propose a semiparametric odds ratio model that extends Umbach and Weinberg's approach to exploiting gene-environment association model for efficiency gains in case-control designs to both discrete and continuous data. We directly model the gene-environment association in the control population to avoid estimating the intercept in the disease risk model, which is inherently difficult because of the scarcity of information on the parameter with the sampling designs. We propose a novel permutation-based approach to eliminate the high-dimensional nuisance parameters in the matched case-control design. The proposed approach reduces to the conditional logistic regression when the model for the gene-environment association is unrestricted. Simulation studies demonstrate good performance of the proposed approach. We apply the proposed approach to a study of gene-environment interaction on coronary artery disease.

Suitability of Parkinson's patients for surgery in the north East coast of peninsular malaysia: a prospective analysis

There is no report in the English literature on the criteria for neuroablation or neuroaugmentation for the treatment of Parkinson's disease in a developing country like Malaysia. A prospective study of patients with Parkinson's disease from the north-eastern peninsular Malaysia was done to assess their suitability of surgery. Age, race, duration of illness and dementia were considered important factors towards the success of such surgical procedures. A mathematical model is suggested for future cases deemed to be suitable for neuroaugmentative or ablative surgery.

A blueprint for the problem formulation phase of EPA-type ecological risk assessments for 316(b) determinations

The difference between management objectives focused on sustainability of fish populations and the indigenous aquatic community, and a management objective focused on minimizing entrainment and impingement losses accounts for much of the ongoing controversy surrounding paragraph 316(b). We describe the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework and recommend that this framework be used to more effectively address differences in management objectives and structure paragraph 316(b) determinations. We provide a blueprint for the problem formulation phase of EPA-type ecological risk assessments for cooling-water intake structures (CWIS) at existing power plant facilities. Our management objectives, assessment endpoints, conceptual model, and generic analysis plan apply to all existing facilities. However, adapting the problem formulation process for a specific facility requires consideration of the permitting agency's guidelines and level of regulatory concern, as well as site-specific ecological and technical differences. The facility-specific problem formulation phase is designed around the hierarchy of biological levels of organization in the generic conceptual model and the sequence of cause-effect events and risk hypotheses represented by this model. Problem formulation is designed to be flexible in that it can be tailored for facilities where paragraph 316(b) regulatory concern is low or high. For some facilities, we anticipate that the assessment can be completed based on consideration of susceptibility alone. At the other extreme, a high level of regulatory concern combined with the availability of extensive information and consideration of costly CWIS mitigation options may result in the ecological risk assessment relying on analyses at all levels. Decisions on whether to extend the ecological risk assessment to additional levels should be based on whether regulatory or generator concerns merit additional analyses and whether available information is adequate to support such analyses. In making these decisions, the functional dependence between levels of analysis must be considered in making the transition to the analysis phase and risk estimation component of the ecological risk assessment. Regardless of how the generic analysis plan is modified to develop a facility-specific analysis plan, the resulting plan should be viewed as a tool for comparing representative species and alternative CWIS options by focusing on relative changes (i.e., proportional or percent changes) in various measures. The analysis plan is specifically designed to encourage consideration of multiple lines of evidence and to characterize uncertainties in each line of evidence. Multiple lines of evidence from different levels of analysis, obtained using both prospective and retrospective techniques, provide a broader perspective on the magnitude of potential effects and associated uncertainties and risks. The implications of the EPA's recent (April 2002) proposed regulations for existing facilities on the applicability of this blueprint are briefly considered.