Modern models for predicting bankruptcy to detect early signals of business failure: Evidence from Montenegro

This paper explores predicting early signals of business failure using modern models for bankruptcy prediction. It reviews how continuous operations enhance market value, strengthening competitiveness and reputation among stakeholders. The study involves medium and large companies in the Montenegrin market from 2015 to 2020, comprising 30 bankrupt and 70 financially stable firms. Logistic regression is also employed to create a logit model for early detection of bankruptcy signals in companies. This research establishes the empirical validity of modern models in predicting business failure in the Montenegrin market, particularly through logistic regression. Significant indicators, such as the Degree of Indebtedness (DI) and turnover ratio of business assets (TR), exhibit strong predictive power with a p-value less than 0.001 according to Likelihood ratio tests. The paper underscores the potential benefits of bankruptcy prediction for both internal and external stakeholders, especially investors, in enhancing the competitiveness of Montenegro's large and medium-sized companies. Notably, the research contributes by bridging the gap between theory and practice in Montenegro, as bankruptcy prediction models have not been extensively applied in the market. The authors suggest the possible applicability of the created logit model to neighboring countries with similar economic development levels. In that sense, the concept of predicting bankruptcy is positioned as integral to corporate strategy, impacting the overall reduction of bankruptcies. The paper concludes by highlighting its role as a foundation for future research, addressing the literature gap in the application of bankruptcy prediction models in Montenegro. The created logit model, tailored to the specific needs of Montenegrin companies, is presented as an original contribution, emphasizing its potential to strengthen the competitiveness of companies in the market.

Persistence of collective memory of corporate bankruptcy events discussed on X (Twitter) is influenced by pre-bankruptcy public attention

Collective attention and memory involving significant events can be quantitatively studied via social media data. Previous studies analyzed user attention to discrete events that do not change post-event, and assume universal public attention patterns. However, dynamic events with ongoing updates are common, yielding varied individual attention patterns. We explore memory of U.S. companies filing Chapter 11 bankruptcy and being mentioned on X (formerly Twitter). Unlike discrete events, Chapter 11 entails ongoing financial changes as the company typically remains operational, influencing post-event attention dynamics. We collected 248,936 X mentions for 74 companies before and after each bankruptcy. Attention surged after bankruptcy, with distinct Low and High persistence levels compared with pre-bankruptcy attention. The two tweeting patterns were modeled using biexponential models, successfully predicting (F1-score: 0.81) post-bankruptcy attention persistence. Studying bankruptcy events on social media reveals diverse attention patterns, demonstrates how pre-bankruptcy attention affects post-bankruptcy recollection, and provides insights into memory of dynamic events.

River water quality management using an integrated multi-objective optimization-simulation approach based on bankruptcy rules

The aim of this research is to allocate the river's self-purification (acceptance capacity of pollution) fairly between the beneficiaries (pollutant sources) using bankruptcy theory. For this purpose, four bankruptcy rules (CAE, CEL, P, and TAL) were called using the link of the water quality simulation model (QULA2Kw) to an evolutionary optimization algorithm (multi-objective imperialist competition algorithm (MOICA)). The objective functions were reducing polluters' wastewater treatment costs and preventing biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) violations of the standard level along the river. The applicability of the approach is demonstrated by the case study that was carried out on the Dez River in Iran. According to the results, the CEL scenario is the most effective method for the Dez River when taking into account the most optimal state for both objective functions (selecting the best compromise solution from the Pareto front). This is because it has the lowest violation value of the standard level for BOD along the river when compared to other scenarios. Alternatively, when considering Solution 20, which focuses on the maximum cost of treating the polluters while staying within the acceptable level of pollution in the river, the results indicated that the CEA rule emerged as the most favorable option. This is due to its lower treatment cost (156.9 (1000$)) and higher pollution discharge to the river (681.91 g/s).

Company scaling and its deviations: New indicators for enterprise evaluation and bankruptcy prediction

Many studies have shown that scaling laws widely exist in various complex systems, such as living organisms, cities, and online communities. In this research, we found that scaling laws also hold for companies. The macroscopic variables of companies, such as incomes, expenses, or total liability, all have power-law relationships with respect to the sizes of companies, which can be measured by sales, total assets, or the total number of employees. What is more, we also found the power law exponents always deviate from 1. That means large companies naturally have certain advantages, but the widely used financial indicators based on total volume or ratio may not reflect the company's status well because they are also size-dependent. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a new set of evaluation indices based on the deviations of the macroscopic variables from the scaling law to eliminate the size-dependent effect. We found that the indicators based on deviations can give more reasonable evaluations for companies and can outperform other conventional indicators to predict the financial distress of companies.

A new fuzzy approach and bankruptcy theory in risk estimation in Waste Load Allocation

In this paper, we developed a simulator-optimizer model based on risk analysis to determine Waste Load Allocation (WLA). A new Fuzzy index as Fuzzy Risk Index (FRI) was linked with multi-objective optimization to minimize FRI for the environmental stakeholder and the total cost of sewage treatment for the polluting industries as the other collective stakeholder. Afterwards, the conflict was resolved with the help of Nash bargaining and bankruptcy approach (Constrained Equal Awards Rule). The model was run using quantitative/qualitative data for the KhoramAbad River. To check the efficiency of FRI, the process followed for WLA was reimplemented by the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). A comparison between the two approaches revealed that the outcomes derived from Fuzzy arithmetic across all aspects, encompassing river qualitative simulation, nondominated curve, Nash bargaining's agreed point, and bankruptcy output, closely mirrored the results of MCS. The notable distinction lies in the drastic reduction of the model's execution time by a factor of 450.

Does the bankrupt cheat? Impact of accounting manipulations on the effectiveness of a bankruptcy prediction

The aim of this article is to answer the question whether the unreliability of the Altman bankruptcy prediction model may be caused by manipulations in financial statements. Our study was carried out on a group of 369 bankrupt Polish companies, with the research period covering the years 2011-2020. In the study, we divided the companies into two groups: those correctly classified by Altman's model as at risk of bankruptcy, and companies for which the model did not indicate a significant bankruptcy risk. Using a logit model, we tested whether the probability of companies being correctly classified as failed depends on the risk of a manipulation of financial statements. We use Benford's law to measure the risk of a manipulation of financial statements. We also repeated our study using panel data models. Our analyses show that the manipulation of financial statements is not the cause of the inaccurate predictions of the Altman model. On the contrary, the results of the analyses indicate that manipulations occurs for companies with a lower Z-score and therefore a worse financial situation. This means that a deterioration in the quality of financial statements can be a signal of an increasing probability of bankruptcy.

The Nexus between Smart Sensors and the Bankruptcy Protection of SMEs

Transportation, logistics, storage, and many other sectors provide a wide space for applying Industry 4.0. This era, with its components, represents the equipment necessary to obtain a unique competitive advantage. Being smart through sensors, big data, and digitalization corresponds not only to evolution but also provides protection for businesses in the face of depression. The COVID-19 pandemic caused collapses and defects for very large enterprises and large enterprises, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This article focuses on SMEs and their profits from using smart sensors. Thus, the aim was to expose the striking effect of Industry 4.0 on earnings during the crisis in the Visegrad Four. The Mann-Kendall trend was used to map the consequences contrasting the period of 2016-2021. The investigation involved samples from 1221 Slovak, 259 Czech, 855 Polish, and 2156 Hungarian enterprises. The results showed that more than 80% of businesses did not have a negative trend in how their earnings changed over time. This fact was confirmed by a z-test for the comparison of one proportion for each analyzed country. The adaptation to Industry 4.0 strengthened the muscle for bankruptcy resilience during the crisis. In addition, it may encourage enterprises to be smart in the same or different sectors.

Managing basin-wide ecosystem services using the bankruptcy theory

Bankrupt ecosystems are those that cannot appropriately provide all their ecosystem services. In this paper, a novel bankruptcy-based methodology is developed to manage ecosystem services. To test the applicability of the developed methodology, it is used in the Zarrinehrud river basin in Iran. First, an integrated framework is used to assess regulating, supporting, provisioning, and cultural ecosystem services of the study area under three climate change scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. Then, for each ecosystem service, an aggregated utility is calculated that takes into account the stakeholders' different opinions toward ecosystem services. The utilities of the ecosystem services show that the Zarrinehrud river basin is bankrupt. To manage this ecosystem, six bankruptcy methods of Adjusted Proportional, Constrained Equal Loss, Constrained Equal Award, Piniles, Talmud, and Hybrid are developed and used in the study area. In this study, the summation of ecosystem services' aggregated utilities under each management scenario is considered as an asset, and all mentioned bankruptcy methods are used to redistribute these assets to different ecosystem services. Considering aggregated utilities, redistributed utilities, and each ecosystem service's claim, two different Root Mean Square Error-based approaches are developed to find the most applicable management scenario in a bankruptcy condition. Using the mentioned approaches, management scenario 128, which is comprised of all management packages, is chosen as the best option under all climate change scenarios. This scenario includes projects such as improving cropping patterns, allocating water to the lake from new water resources, and rehabilitating irrigation and draining systems. Moreover, analyzing the results derived from different bankruptcy methods shows that the Talmud, Hybrid, and Constrained Equal Loss methods have the best performance.

How does the leniency of personal bankruptcy law affect entrepreneurship in EU countries?

Several studies examined how some characteristics of personal bankruptcy laws influenced entrepreneurial developments during the last two decades. Our main objective is to analyze the association between self-employment and the leniency of the personal bankruptcy systems in 24 EU countries. Unlike previous studies, we measure differences and changes in the leniency of the regulations with a composite index that incorporates 35 variables. Based on a cross-country database of self-employment ratios and various control variables spanning the years 2000 to 2019, we apply a panel regression model. We find that the implementation of new regulations and reforms in personal bankruptcy legislation in more lenient directions positively correlates with entrepreneurial developments measured by self-employment rates. This is more significant in the group of countries where the eligibility criteria for entrepreneurs are not constrained. We find a one-year negative time-lag effect and conclude that strong anticipation of the law for a more lenient system can immediately change the risk-reward profile, and thereby influence entrepreneurship before implementing the actual reform. An important policy implication is that a major reform in regulation or the first implementation of conservative legislation has the same order of magnitude of effect on promoting entrepreneurship as other public policy reforms of similar purpose.

A cooperative game model with bankruptcy theory for water allocation: a case study in China Tarim River Basin

China Tarim River Basin is located in an arid area, whose rapid socioeconomic development intensifies the current water resources shortage. To allocate water resources reasonably, this paper introduces the bankruptcy theory into the cooperative game model to contract a linear function describing the degree of satisfaction of each region's declared water demand. Bankruptcy theory solves the problem of insufficient information about stakeholders in the cooperative game. From the perspective of the cooperative game's stability, the bankruptcy allocation stability index (BASI) is used to evaluate and compare water resource allocation results in the Tarim River Basin in 2025 and 2030 under different scenarios. Moreover, this paper uses the improved TOPSIS model to build the harmony index of water-economy-environment (HWEE) to evaluate the harmony of water resources, economy, and environment in each region. The results show that the model is more suitable for the actual water allocation game and has a good application value than the classical bankruptcy theory. Moreover, the stability index and HWEE proposed in this paper also have better applicability, and the allocation scheme with the same game weight in each region is more stable.

Obesity and bankruptcy: Evidence from US counties

Using annual county-level data on nonbusiness bankruptcy for the period 2005-2017 and obesity for the period 2004-2016, this paper finds that higher obesity rates are associated with higher bankruptcy rates beyond what can be explained by local economic conditions and demographic characteristics, state-specific economic shocks, and county-specific time trends. The magnitude suggests that a one-percentage point increase in the obesity rate is associated with a 0.02-0.03 increase (or a 1.0 percent increase) in Chapter 7 bankruptcy rates per 1000 residents and a 0.02-0.04 increase (or a 3-4 percent increase) in Chapter 13 bankruptcy rates per 1000 residents.

The Hahnemann University Hospital Closure and What Matters: A Department Chair's Perspective

The closure of Hahnemann University Hospital, which was announced on June 26, 2019, resulted in the most significant graduate medical education displacement in history, sending over 550 residents to new institutions within a month of the announcement. Over 2,000 physicians, nurses, and staff lost their jobs. While seemingly predictable in retrospect, the closure came as a cataclysmic event to all involved. In this Invited Commentary, a department chair reflects on the lessons learned from these unprecedented circumstances. These lessons cover areas that are not a typical concern for faculty who are focused on teaching their trainees, but are worthy of their attention. Corporate and organizational structure, leadership, and financing of the hospital were critical determining characteristics of the failure. The roles that the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services played in this event were key stabilizers. However, examining their roles in this event offers opportunities to play a more active role in future events and alter how the next massive displacement unfolds, possibly preserving teaching programs. Highly competitive health systems should rethink noncollaborative strategies before allowing struggling institutions to succumb to market forces. Finally, a commitment by a hospital to the mission of academic medicine is a sacred trust with the faculty, trainees, and patients that it serves. It should not be undertaken by any enterprise that is not well resourced and equipped with the knowledge and expertise to meet this most serious of commitments.

Lessons to Learn From Hahnemann University Hospital's Closure

Despite the number of hospital closures over the past decade, the June 2019 announcement of the closing of Hahnemann University Hospital (HUH) in downtown Philadelphia has greatly impacted the academic medicine community. Several factors contributed to the collapse of the hospital; however, the operational approach throughout the period leading up to and during the hospital's closing left faculty, students, and especially residents with many questions as they scrambled to determine how to continue their careers. This Invited Commentary examines factors that contributed to the crisis following the hospital's closure, such as the influence of HUH's ownership history and the complicated landscape of graduate medical education, and discusses the lessons that can be learned from this cataclysmic event. Above all, the academic medicine community must consider lessons learned from HUH's closure and make a firm commitment to preserve and protect the educational mission of our institutions.

The Graduate Medical Education (GME) Gold Rush: GME Slots and Funding as a Financial Asset

The unprecedented displacement of more than 550 trainees that occurred because of the closure of Hahnemann University Hospital has demonstrated that the medical education community, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education were unprepared for a graduate medical education (GME) crisis of this scale. The authors offer a first-hand perspective of the chaotic environment that ensued following the announcement of the hospital's closure and of the challenges faced by trainees and program leadership looking to ensure trainees found a landing program that was a good fit for them. The authors review the complexity of GME funding and how the owners of Hahnemann University Hospital leveraged this in an attempt to offset debt. The lessons learned from the authors' experience can help inform the medical education community's response to this type of crisis in the future.

Reflections on a Crisis in Graduate Medical Education: The Closure of Hahnemann University Hospital

In June 2019, Hahnemann University Hospital (HUH) in Philadelphia became the largest U.S. teaching hospital to announce its closure and the closure of all of its graduate medical education (GME) programs, which displaced more than 550 residents, fellows, and other trainees. In addition to the displaced trainees, the HUH closure involved many stakeholders at both the closing hospital and hospitals willing to accept transferred residents and fellows-program directors and coordinators, designated institutional officials (DIOs), and hospital executives-as well as the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the National Resident Matching Program, and other organizations. Given the rarity of such events, those involved had little experience or expertise in dealing with the closure of so many GME programs at one time. In this Invited Commentary, the DIOs of HUH and 4 other area teaching hospitals detail their experiences working to find new training opportunities for the displaced residents and fellows, discussing lessons learned and providing recommendations to prepare for any future teaching hospital closures. Stakeholder organizations should work together to develop a "playbook" for use during future closures so that the chaos that occurred this time can be avoided.

Propagation of negative shocks across nation-wide firm networks

This study examines how negative shocks due to, for example, natural disasters propagate through supply chains. We apply a simulation technique to actual supply chain data covering most Japanese firms. To investigate the property of the propagation in the network, we test different types of artificial negative shocks. We find that, first, network structures severely affect the speed of propagation in the short run, and the total loss in the long run. The scale-free nature of the actual supply-chain network-that is, the power-law degree distribution-leads to faster propagation. Second, more intensive damages-that is, more damages suffered by fewer firms-result in faster propagation than extensive damages of the same total size. Third, the actual supply-chain network has innate robustness that comes from substitutability of supplies. If the supply-chain network has severe substitutability, the propagation of negative shocks becomes substantially large. Fourth, direct damages in urban regions promote faster propagation than those in rural regions. Fifth, different sectoral damages show significant differences in the speed of propagation. Finally, we check the indirect damage triggered by a single firm's loss: 9.7% of all firms contribute to significant loss, and this loss accounts for more than 10% of the damage to the entire production. The simulations conspicuously show that different direct damages, even if they have the same total magnitude of damages, can generate considerably different damages because of the structure of the supply-chain network.

Predicting Financial Distress in Acute Care Hospitals

Hospitals continue to face financial pressures from healthcare reform and heightened competition. In this study, our objective was to quantify the financial distress in acute care hospitals in Texas, applying multivariate logistic regression in a four-year longitudinal analysis. Of the 310 acute care hospitals, 50 (16.1%) were in financial distress in the most recent year, up considerably year over year. Distressed hospitals had fewer beds, lower patient acuity, and less outpatient revenues than those in good financial condition. Administrators should identify business turnaround strategies for combating distress to avoid potential closure.

Trading Bankruptcy for Health: A Discrete-Choice Experiment

BACKGROUND

Although nearly two-third of bankruptcy in the United States is medical in origin, a common assumption is that individuals facing a potentially lethal disease opt for cure at any cost. This assumption has never been tested, and knowledge of how the American population values a trade-off between cure and bankruptcy is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the relative importance among the general American population of improved health versus improved financial risk protection, and to determine the impact of demographics on these preferences.

METHODS

A discrete-choice experiment was performed with 2359 members of the US population. Respondents were asked to value treatments with varying chances of cure and bankruptcy in the presence of a lethal disease. Latent class analysis with concomitant variables was performed, weighted for national representativeness. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to test the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

It was found that 31.3% of the American population values cure at all costs. Nevertheless, for 8.5% of the US population, financial solvency dominates concerns for health in medical decision making. Individuals who value cure at all costs are more likely to have had experience with serious disease and to be women. No demographic characteristics significantly predicted individuals who value solvency over cure.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the average American values cure more than financial solvency, a cure-at-all-costs rubric describes the preferences of a minority of the population, and 1 in 12 value financial protection over any chances of cure. This study provides empirical evidence for how the US population values a trade-off between avoiding adverse health outcomes and facing bankruptcy. These findings bring to the fore the decision making that individuals face in balancing the acute financial burden of health care access.

[Suicide prevention and the role of the psychiatrist]

Suicide is a major public health issue with a huge number of unnecessary deaths. Suicide prevention is still a recent endeavor but despite the great production of research in the field there is no real impact on death rates. Scholars worldwide have puzzled over what makes a person suicidal and what individuals who die by suicide have in their minds. Most often the focus is not on the motives for suicide, nor on the phenomenology of this act. Psychiatrists are very often involved in the assessment and management of suicide risk. However, the search for psychiatric disorders as the key factor in energizing suicidality is now challenged by new models for describing suicide. Unbearable psychological pain is a common denominator in serious suicide risk. It is an escape from intolerable suffering; and this construct views suicide not as a movement toward death but a remedy to escape from intolerable emotion, unendurable, or unacceptable anguish. The author proposes reflections for aiding psychiatrists in broadening their view when assessing suicide risk.

Smoke without Fire: Nursing Facility Closures in California, 1997–2001

This paper draws from a rich longitudinal California data set to analyze the scope and nature of nursing home closures between 1997 and 2001, and to present a Cox proportionate hazards model of the risks of closure that arise from a range of facility and market characteristics. When compared with the sample total of 1,482 facilities operating in the baseline year of 1997, only 56 facilities closed through 2001, involving the loss of 3.8% of facilities and 2,915 beds (2.3%). The multivariate Cox model of factors associated with closure reports that: 1) hospital-based facilities are 600% more likely to close than are free-standing homes; 2) reducing bed size by one standard deviation (52 beds) increases the risk of closure by 460%; 3) facilities with losses of 5% or worse are more than twice as likely to close; and 4) a one-standard deviation increase in the spare bed capacity measure of county competition raises the risk of facility closure by 140%.

Organizational resilience as a human capital strategy for companies in bankruptcy

BACKGROUND

Bankruptcy is a crisis that generates severe stress and anxiety, resulting in maladaptive behavior and inappropriate decision-making at both individual and organizational levels. There is limited research or guidance for management to address the consequences of bankruptcy on an organization's human capital.

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the human capital management principle of organizational resilience that was employed by a company that successfully reorganized and emerged from bankruptcy.

METHODS

This study translated seven principles of organizational resilience proposed by Mallak to operationalize a conceptual model of organizational resilience for companies operating in bankruptcy. The model is evaluated using a qualitative research approach comprised of an original case study of Integrated Electrical Services, Inc.

RESULTS

The results of the research points to the importance of de-centralized operational decision making, expanding communication channels, ensuring adequate external resources, and engaging external stakeholders in the management of an organization seeking to successfully operate and ultimately emerge from bankruptcy.

CONCLUSIONS

The research identified the central importance of expanding decision making boundaries in the resilience of organizations and their ability to adapt when under adverse conditions such as bankruptcy. The implications support an organization developing a human resource strategy to develop organizational resilience.

Sipuleucel-T (Provenge(®))-Autopsy of an Innovative Paradigm Change in Cancer Treatment: Why a Single-Product Biotech Company Failed to Capitalize on its Breakthrough Invention

Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2010, sipuleucel-T (Provenge(®)) was the first 'personalized' cancer vaccine for the treatment of prostate cancer in a metastatic, non-symptomatic population of 30,000 men in the USA. Sipuleucel-T is prepared individually for each patient and infused in three sessions over a period of 1 month. However, in 2015, Dendreon, the owner of sipuleucel-T, filed for bankruptcy. This opinion paper reviews the probable reasons this innovative product failed to achieve commercial success. PubMed and internet searches were performed focused on pricing, reimbursement, and market access. We found that sipuleucel-T's FDA approval was delayed by 3 years, reportedly because of the vaccine's new mechanism of action. Sipuleucel-T was cleared by the European Medicines Agency 2 years later, but other national agencies were not approached. It was priced at $US93,000 for a course of treatment, and this high price combined with the company's late securement of reimbursement for the vaccine by the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) resulted in another year's delay in accessing the market. Despite a positive recommendation by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network, sipuleucel-T's complex administration, high price, and uncertainty about the reimbursement status deterred doctors from prescribing the product. Furthermore, the vaccine's supply was limited during the first year of launch due to limited manufacturing capacity. In addition, two oral metastatic prostate cancer drugs with similar survival benefits reached the US market 1 and 2 years after sipuleucel-T. Also, even though Dendreon's market capitalization topped $US7.5 billion following the FDA's approval of sipuleucel-T, this value degraded gradually until the firm's bankruptcy 5 years later. We conclude that the bankruptcy of Dendreon was largely due to the delay in securing FDA approval and CMS coverage, as well as the high cost that had to be incurred by providers up-front. Licensing sipuleucel-T to a pharmaceutical company more experienced in the market access pathway may have saved the company and the product.

The Greek Pompeii in Health

After the official request by Greece's prime minister for help, the country was put under the supervision of the Troika, that is, European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), and signed with them, in May  2010 the first and in February 2012 the second economic adjustment program, in exchange for financial packages, aiming at helping the country get out of its debt crisis, recover its lost growth and transform the national economy into a more sustainable model, including measures such as reductions in all public expenditures with efficient gains  at the same time (1, 2). [...].

Bankruptcy, medical insurance, and a law with unintended consequences

Congress passed the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act (EMTALA) in 1986, guaranteeing a standard of medical care to anyone who entered an emergency room. This guarantee made default a more reliable substitute for medical insurance. I construct a tractable structural model of the medical insurance market and find that repealing EMTALA would increase the fraction of the population with insurance while decreasing its price.

A new bankruptcy method for conflict resolution in water resources allocation

Growing competition over water resources has caused political disputes among stakeholders and has brought conflict resolution in the focus of negotiation processes. In these cases, bankruptcy rules for redistributing an asset when it is not sufficient to meet all claims could be applied. In this paper, we develop a new bankruptcy rule for water resources problems that considers agents' contribution to the total resources as well as their claims, which is in accordance with the UN Watercourses Convention (1997), as important factors for reallocation. Using the Euphrates River and a hypothetical case from the literature as examples, the new rule is compared with four alternative rules. The results show that the novel solution is potentially more powerful to help solving conflicts over river sharing problems.

A preliminary study on the case of "bio-bankruptcy"

In the case of biobank bankruptcy, the current legal framework is not suitable to protect the rights of research subjects. In the paper we identify such a gap in protection and suggest some remedies to address it.

Navigating financial distress

An effective hospital turnaround plan includes speed, transparency and legal savvy.

Bankruptcy cascades in interbank markets

We study a credit network and, in particular, an interbank system with an agent-based model. To understand the relationship between business cycles and cascades of bankruptcies, we model a three-sector economy with goods, credit and interbank market. In the interbank market, the participating banks share the risk of bad debits, which may potentially spread a bank's liquidity problems through the network of banks. Our agent-based model sheds light on the correlation between bankruptcy cascades and the endogenous economic cycle of booms and recessions. It also demonstrates the serious trade-off between, on the one hand, reducing risks of individual banks by sharing them and, on the other hand, creating systemic risks through credit-related interlinkages of banks. As a result of our study, the dynamics underlying the meltdown of financial markets in 2008 becomes much better understandable.